Gold Target $8000 Silver Target $160 | Michael Oliver and Jimmy Connor Interview
Summary
Market Outlook: Despite recent highs in the S&P and NASDAQ, the podcast emphasizes a lack of trust in these indices due to declining momentum and narrow market leadership, suggesting a potential major bull market peak.
Investment Strategy: The discussion highlights a shift in investment focus towards gold and silver, which have outperformed the S&P over the past decade, with gold showing significant long-term gains.
Gold and Silver Projections: There is a strong bullish sentiment for gold and silver, with predictions of gold potentially reaching $8,400 and silver significantly increasing in value, driven by historical trends and current undervaluation.
Commodities Insight: The podcast suggests a potential breakout in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, indicating a bullish outlook for commodities, particularly energy and metals, which are seen as undervalued.
US Dollar and Financials: The US dollar is expected to weaken further, potentially impacting other markets, while US financial stocks are viewed as vulnerable despite recent gains, with momentum indicators suggesting caution.
Speculation and Bubbles: The discussion addresses the extreme levels of speculation in various markets, including cryptocurrencies and financial leverage, warning of potential risks and market corrections.
Economic Conditions: Despite economic growth and market highs, concerns are raised about inflation, speculative bubbles, and the sustainability of current monetary policies, hinting at future market volatility.
Transcript
[Music] Michael, thank you very much for joining us today. Uh, how are things in Denver? Uh, well, actually, I'm north of Denver. About an hour and a half. Uh, things are great. You know, good weather, nice view. Anyway, winter's coming. That'll be nice. That's good. That's good. So, um, first of all, I got to let you know this is my new background, my new setup here. You're the first one, uh, that I've interviewed with my new background. I got my money tree here. What do you think of my money tree? I'm hoping it's going to bring me good vibes. Well, ship me one of them, will you? I'd like one of those, too. I might have to get two of them. Okay. Anyhow, the last time we spoke was in April. I can't believe that. And so much has changed since then. At that time, the S&P was at 5,500. Now we're at 6,600. I can't believe it, but it's up 12% on the year. The NASDAQ 100 was at 19,600 at that time. Now it's at 24,500. It's up 14% on the year. We've had a massive rally off the April lows. And at that time, you said your message was don't trust this bounce. And yet we've gone significantly higher here. And it looks like this market will not stop. It's just like a runaway. So, what is your view on the S&P and the NASDAQ 100? Uh, we do not trust them. Price action has made new highs. By the way, it's not all that big. Yeah, the move to get here was big because we came from the depths of hell. You know, S&P dropped down to 4,800 from being over 6,000. And now we're I think less than 10% higher than we were in in February high in the S&P. I think that high was 6,100 if I'm not mistaken. So, we're, you know, less than far less than 10% above it. And it's been creepy crawly. The explosion from that April low, if you look at just a price chart, which we look beyond that, but was rapid. And then when you got up near the high, it's creepy crawly the whole way. It's, you know, it it it doesn't look it almost looks abnormal. I'm not going to say it's a conspiracy. Somebody's buying it like the government to keep it up, but it's just not behaving like a normal inhale exhale market. It's it's like incremental and every day they make a new high it's by oh by a quarter of a point a percent you know it's but we don't trust it momentum is broken meaning back in January the S&P had made a high above 6100 it started back down and no yeah in Janu early January and in fact it made its high in February I think so it made a high a little bit later but above 6,000 we got negative because momentum long-term momentum, meaning things like quarterly momentum. It's when you measure each monthly bar in its relationship to a three/arter moving average. So, you oscillate it. You create an oscillator, which is what we do. You don't just look at the average. The average itself could be meaningless whether you're above it or below it. You build structure on the momentum chart just like you do on a price chart. You know, uptrend lines, flat floors, that kind of thing. Almost always momentum will shift out of a given trend into a new emerging trend before price will. Okay. If you go back and look at the 2000 top, you go back and look at the 2007 process of topping which was spanned basically a year in each case. There was a point after which you broke enough things to say, "Oh, momentum says you're topping. You're no good." But price goes up and nips out a new high. Let me give you an example of a false breakout. The peak price in 2000 was$1,550 on the S&P. The peak price multiple years later, 2007. Seven years later, you finally got back up to 1550 again. This was like in the spring of 2007. So you'd seven full years just to get back to where you were then. And they sold it there again. and you dropped from 1550 S&P into the summer. Pretty nice little sell-off. And the double top guy said, "Oh boy, we nailed a double top." Right? Okay. Price came back up and broke out over the early 2007 price high and the 2000 price high. So it was like what you call a triple top breakout on price. You got up to 1576 in October of 2007. Why? The Fed cut rates in September. First time they cut rates in a long time. Everybody was partying. Let's buy the market. They had a price chart breakout. You know that orthodox chart analysis would say, "Oh boy, this is really good." That was the top period. You know, went 25 points beyond the old highs and everybody was cheering and it just sort of quietly slumped back below them. Big mistake and a bare market ensued. momentum already argued before that event occurred. Don't trust price. Same thing is happening right now. Do not trust the new price highs. Um, a lot of sectors within the market have not made new highs by the way. Uh, a lot of even if you look at the mag seven, flip through those seven charts, how many have made new highs? I think it's only three or four. Okay. Yeah, they've all bounced with the market, but some of them didn't make a new high like the S&P. So even the leadership is is gotten sharply narrowed. So your leadership is narrowing. The breadth of the market is narrowing. It's only well, you know, recently it's been Meta. Uh what else we got recently that's helped the market go up? Oracle recently, but there's a lot of stocks at the front end of the S&P that are heavily weighted. You know, they account for like 50 other stocks at the tail end in terms of waiting. uh and they've made new highs, but it's extremely narrow and very distorted. So, we don't trust it. I think money has already began to move out of it and move into other asset areas, particularly gold and silver. But anyway, that's our assessment of the stock market. I think we're making a major bull market peak and we've been doing it since early this year. So just to summarize, even though the S&P and the NASDAQ are making new highs, your view is the momentum of both indices is declining. Yeah, the momentum is having a rally, but it's already broken its structure. In other words, if you looked at a momentum chart of the S&P, like quarterly momentum or any other long-term metric like 100week average and stuff like that, you've broken an uptrend that goes all the way back to that 2022 low. Okay? So, the uptrend that was defined by multiple lows, nicely drawn trend line on momentum, you blew the heck out of it in April. In fact, you broke it in early March. Uh, and in some cases, you broke it in January. But then this whole rally when you look at a momentum chart isn't making a new high. Where is it? Where is it right now? Where has it been stalling? Because you know this creepy crawly action we've been getting is up underneath that which you broke on momentum. So if the if you looked at a momentum chart and treated it as a price chart, you'd say, "Hey, this is a rally up under a place. Ought to sell it." Okay? So we trust momentum more than price and we're doubtful of the stock market. Plus, if you're in markets to make money on a relative basis versus other asset categories, gold has been beating the pants off the S&P for actually it's it's doing better than the S&P for the last 10 years. Okay? In terms of where was gold in 2015 versus the S&P, we're much higher. You go back three years, we're much higher. You go back just the beginning of the year, you're much more up on the year than the S&P is. I think gold's up like 40% on the year and S&P's up what, seven, you know, from where it closed last year or, you know, whatever. Uh it's so the issue is where should I be not whether it's going up and another point to make there's always a degradation of money by the central banks. the Fed is equal accomplice to the ECB or the BOJ. You know, they all print print when they need it. And when you break these stock markets, they're going to be they'll be go gusher again. But if you go back just arbitrarily 25 years, quarter of a century, an investment lifetime, let's call it, go back to October or September of that year, September of this year, so it's been 25 years. S&P is up three and a half fold. Gold is up over 11fold. Yeah, big swings so forth and so on. When if you got into gold wrong, you got hurt and so forth. But basically, from a long-term point of view, gold is up 11fold, more than 11, and the S&P is up three and a half fold. So anyway, so one of the things that really confounds me about this market and is the I guess the amount of money that keeps going into it. And you you alluded to this earlier, but the S&P is currently trading at 22 times, okay, forward in earnings. And that's a very rich number. And that's in spite of all this negative news associated with trade wars and tariffs, etc. And then if you look at the Buffett indicator, which is just the total value of all stocks in the US divided by the GDP, it's also trading at or near all-time highs. It's well over 200% now. And so it doesn't matter what matrix you look at, this market is highly overvalued. Okay. And so if and when it breaks, um, are you okay? You're already saying the momentum is starting to break. But when it does break, where do you see the S&P going if it's at 6600 right now? What are we looking at? 30. No prediction on that ex. No prediction except to say you go back uh to the 1920s and look at the 23 to 29 bull. the dimension of it upside terms of percent gain in the Dow the number of years uh mid70s high ended with the crash in 74 gold was exploding while it crashed by the way in December 74 uh we're looking at the 19 94 to 2000 high about six years doubled or so for S&P triple for NASDAQ this this bull market since 2009 is is a bubble beyond ond all bubbles. Now, it is starting to fit into those metrics that you're looking at, which are foggy metrics, meaning they're not precise points to sell. They just say be distrustful. Okay? And they're probably correct. But remember, you know, the movie Big Short, okay? But there's three or four guys in different parts of the country who were sort of unorthodox said, "Hey, you know, we got a mortgage crisis coming." And they were right. And they were laughed at by their peers, you know, and even after but they said this in late 2005, 2006, 2007. It wasn't until you got into 2008 before the reality that they knew was coming came. So sometimes you can have these metrics like you mentioned that are sort of fundamental metrics that are valid but you know when when do I act on them and that's what we focus on and so what we're saying is we're topping the next leg down is likely to be the start of the one that actually gets the attention of the public it won't be a quickie like April was which was panic and and unfortunately headline associated tariff nonsense. Okay, is if that that's not the reason this market's going to go down. This market is a bubble beyond all bubbles in terms of increase over a period of time and it's been created by such factors just monetary particularly look at an M2 chart upward curvature okay uh in fact that's been ongoing for decades but it's really you know upward curve on the on the chart over the last 20 years or so and then look at the Fed funds rate chart I mean they for 10 of the last 15 years rates were at zero Oh, I mean that's Chich and Chong time. Get high, boy. You know, enjoy it. Buy stocks, get all the money you want. It's free. Okay. And even when they raise rates up 5%, if you go back 75 years and look at that rate compared to 75 years, it's at the low end. So, we've been drugged with monetary policy. And that creates bad decisions because one of your foundations of your thought process when you decide to build a new factory or uh sell your home and buy a bigger one or you know etc etc is the cost of money. And if all of a sudden the cost of money is like hey it's free you know uh or next to or cheaper than reality then you make a decision based in part large part on that issue. That could be a mistake because if that's not sustainable and also once you get these bubbles created every time they make a top 2000 2007 Fed started cutting rates it never helped the market collapsed anyway. So it went somewhere else and I'm already seeing where it's going. Gold, silver, and now recently especially the gold and silver miners. So you mentioned the movie Big Short. Fabulous movie. I've probably seen it a half a dozen times. Yeah. Another movie you have to check out is called Dumb Money. Have you seen that one? No. No. That one is all based on It just came out, I believe, three years ago. It was based on GameStop and that whole time period. Oh, okay. Cool. You got to watch it. It is a classic. Yeah. But, uh, you mentioned bubbles and you're saying this is the bubble of all bubbles and and I would totally agree. I guess one of the things that really astounds me about what we're seeing right now is that it's just not one bubble. It's a bubble after bubble after bubble, right? In the last five years, we had initial coin offerings or ICOs. Then we had NFTTS. We had thousands of cryptocurrencies. I mean, you and I could start a cryptocurrency right now. Yeah. Let's create our own money. Let's do it right now. Yeah. Sports betting, zero data options trading. like the level of speculation going on now is something we've never seen before in the history of mankind. But and of course AI I didn't even I almost forgot about that. But this when you see these extremes in speculation, does that concern you? Well, it's it's again it's one of those wet noodle indicators that it's a reality and ultimately it probably plays, but again the question is when because you know this has been going on for a while now. Okay. You know, I understand from various bank reports that I've I've read or heard about of analyzing their customers that are invested in the market and have an account in the bank that does that. You know, uh the the use of leverage has never been higher than it is now. And yet it's persisting. Okay? So, you can make an error but keep making it. And the longer you make it, the worse the consequence probably. But again, the issue is when. Okay. Yeah, it's a reality. Those are objective facts, but again, when? And that's what we're focused on. And I do think it's a key factor right now because when it does crack, we know what's going to happen to the central bank. They're going to go berserk even more so than they already are. Um, which case they'll lower rates, but they'll also increase money supply, etc., etc. But uh so and and that will impact other markets as well because when they in they push the throttle especially gold and the monetary metals will accelerate even further. Not that they're dependent on it because they've already anticipated that event. Money's already started to flow. Not not particularly American money by the way but other parts of the world have gone into the monetary metals. Wait till that starts. I think it's already begun and I think that's why the you've seen gold miners go vertical especially since April. Remember gold made a high in April that when we interviewed last time gold was up to I think 3,400 and it went dead sideways for five full months. They they sold it and they sold it thought, "Oh, this is the top. This is the top." It wasn't at the top. It was just a sleepy range. What happened since then? Miners exploded while gold went sideways. Silver went from mid30s lower 33 34 area uh for a year. In fact, it had been in fact in last May of 2024 it was up to 3270. So you could draw a line across that high through the next year of action and you did this on either side of it. And it wasn't until late June, July you finally went through the highs. So July, August, Sep, you know, oh boom, silver goes from mid30s to what? 43. Okay. So, while gold stood still, now gold is starting to reassert itself here. But, u I think that money flow that went into gold miners was from asset managers largely the larger ones, especially Numont, which has gone vertical for the last few months. Uh who've decided, hey, you know, uh they've they know the stuff you just mentioned, too many points of excess. I think I'll move 2 3% into the gold miners. They look undervalued. Gold's been doing good. No, I'm not a gold bug, but I'm going to move some money over there. But when they do, it's wet bar of soap time. Squirt on the upside because it's such a small sector. And I think that probably some of the power that's driven that is the doubtful asset managers in the stock market. Can't prove it. Just an assumption. Yes, I would agree with that assessment 100% because Pneumont as a reminder to our viewers back in January, February, it was down on the year. Now it's up 115% on the year. Second best performer in the S&P only lagging behind Palunteer. So now that we're talking, let's uh do a deeper dive on gold and I want to show a couple of charts that you u have sent me. The first one is called the gold monthly ratio scale and it goes all the way back since 1975. So it gives us a great overview of what's happening and where you think the price is going. Yeah. Right now if you look at a monthly price chart, just a regular arithmetic scale price chart and we'll go back to 2011 high and you had the drop into 2015 50% drop and from 2015 you you worked your way up but it was an arm wrestling process. In fact, there was one 20% correction in there between the early 22 22 high and the it was August 22 low. You went from 2000 down to 1613. Okay, pretty nice drop 20%. And then you reasserted yourself. But it was an ongoing arduous process and only now has it started to look like it's accelerating. And so if you looked at a bar chart of weekly or go or monthly gold and you're an average investor, you say, "Boy, that's been glorious. I'm glad I was in that." And you're thinking, "God, it can't go forever like this." But when you look at a ratio scaled chart, in other words, percent gain of a bull market and go back 50 years when the government approved it for us to trade, you know, God bless them. Uh you've had two bull markets. There were eightfold moves from bare low to bull high. Different duration of time. One was from 76 low to 1980. The other was from 2001 low to 2011. But they were both eightfold multiple gains for gold. We bottomed at,045 in December 2015. If we get eight-fold that just did what we did twice before for reasons that were far less dynamic and significant to the world fundamentally than what we've got now, you'd be at $8,400 or so just to match what had occurred before. So when you look at the current price chart, you think, "Oh my god, look how ballistic it is." When you put it on a logarithmic scale chart as we're showing, you know, it's just getting started, guys. We're not even halfway up to the gains we saw in those two bull markets. We're not even four-fold yet. Okay. So, uh that's something to consider. It's I don't trade off of it. You know, maybe we're not going to go eight-fold again, but considering the dynamics that are out there in other markets either way, upside or downside, uh it would be easy to see gold at least matching what it did then. So, don't don't think gold's overpriced. I'm so Okay. I'm sorry, Michael. I didn't hear that. So, gold's currently at 3,600. 3,700 bucks. 3,700. Yeah, that's only it's a triple, you know, from its low, you know, a triple from its low. So, what would that be? Well, the bare low in 2015 was $1,045 or,50, let's say. So, you've tripled it. Fine. That's great. A little more, but you're nowhere even half what those were. Those were eight-fold moves. And a lot of that move occurred in the last year or so of the move. In fact, that was the case in both cases. Most of the move occurred late in the bull trend. So, uh, and again, duration was different. One was a three and a half year bull, one was a 10-year bull. So, you know, maybe this this one's already a 10-year. Um well we'll yeah you know and u but it you know I think the dynamics are such that what you're going to see over the next handful of months especially over the next year in terms of monetary metal upside is going to be awesome and far different from the tone we've seen over the last 10 years in gold for example. So if somebody hasn't gotten involved in gold yet what's your message to them? Well, they're late, but on the other hand, it's a reality. Do I get in or not? I suggest yes. Our preference, well, especially when you look at gold miners. gold miners. Uh we don't have any charts on this, but relative to gold, the valuation of, for example, the XAU index, which has been around since the 1980s, the 1980s, 90s, and into well into 2000, like up until till about 2007 or 8, it was trading at either side of about 25% of the price of gold. In other words, divide XAU price into gold. It was about 25% of the price of an ounce of gold. It would oscillate above and below there. In fact, the low end of that multi-deade range was about 17.5%. So, let's let's remember that. In fact, when you see the spread chart, if you if you have one, we we publish it routinely. Let's call that resistance. Now, other words, if you ever get back up there, you bump your head on it. Okay. Where is gold right now? It's like uh pushing up toward, you know, it's at 7.6 7.7% I think right now XAU divided into an ounce of gold. So you could double and a half the miners right now on a relative price basis just to get to the underside of the prior multi-deade valuation that they used to have. So they are a vastly underpriced category of the monetary metals. And I think somebody's woken up and said, "Hey, this is cheap, low risk. I'm in." And that's why you've seen them get gooseed. But even getting gooseed to where they are, for example, GDX or XAU just recently, the last few weeks have taken out the 2011 price high. Gold did that, you know, when it took out 1920. So, they're just catching up. Yeah. So, even though a name like Numont's up over 100% on the year, Ken Ross is up 140%. Agniko's up 100%. Yeah. You still think there's a lot more room to Oh, no. think they've just begun because all they've done is they suddenly come back to where gold was at about 2,000 bucks, you know, back in 2020. Uh, gold's now 3700. Well, they're just getting up to the 2000 level. In effect, taking out the $1,920 high we had in 2011 on gold. GDX just took out that high. XAU just took out that high. So, in effect, it's saying I'm back. Okay? And it's still cheap because I mean if you take 2011 to the present, you know, 14 15 years or so, uh, and and and you say what's the real value of the currency unit we're using, real spending value, it's decreased marketkedly because the money supply like doubles almost every decade. Well, heck, you know, just to match the 2011 high, uh, you could probably double the current price of the miners and they'd still be where they were in real value terms versus 2011. And that puts us on the issue of silver, of course. Yeah. And to your point, many of them haven't taken out their uh 2011 highs. So, Agniko, I believe, might be the only name. Well, many of them have. Most of the silver miners are still way behind, but they're accelerating like SIL, the ETF of the silver miners. Is it a point of breakout versus GDX? Meaning if which do I buy, the go the gold miners, GDX or still the silver miners? I would suggest silver miners because there's more slingshot effect there likely meaning further percent gain than GDX will produce over the coming year or so. So, so let's talk about silver. Now, the other chart I want to show our viewers is another chart you sent me. It's the silver versus gold. And why don't we take a look at this and then give me some indication of where first of all how undervalued silver is in relation to gold and where you think silver might be going. Well, if if you look at that chart, what it shows is pick the monthly close each year that was the highest close of the price of silver relative to gold. And we calculate that by simply dividing an ounce of silver into an ounce of gold, express it as a percent. So you see the scale on the left goes from like, you know, zero up to seven or eight or whatever. And you see these bars, the highest reading you had each year. The lower horizontal line on that grid chart comes through at 2%. 21 of the past 50 years have reached 2%. Right now we're about 1.16%. Okay? We're very suppressed, very depressed relative to that norm. Okay? And in bull trends when silver gets going relative to gold like 79 to 80 2010 2011 the spread got up to 3.5% and and back in the 80 1980 got up to 6% plus okay so just getting to a routine been there before 21 times in the last 50 years many of those years not even bull trends I'd go to 2% well that's nearly a double of the current valuation of silver to hold. What usually happens is when that spread breaks out and you can't measure it that well on that graph I'm you know we're looking at but when we take it down to week-toeek action or monthly close to monthly close and we do an oscillator a momentum study of the spread not just looking at the spread we can see a breakout level not far above where we are right now that says we're going to gush we're headed sharply toward it in fact Since April, the silver gold spread has shot up pretty nicely. Silver is up much more on the year than gold is, by the way. Okay. So, it's it's catching up, but there's a breakout level on that spread that says, I'm going to launch, and it's we define the number in our weekend reports. Once you trigger that, you're going to gush up at least to that 2% level, probably even further. But let's just say we go to the norm 2%. Again, that's nearly a double from where you are now. Well, if gold went dead sideways at 4,000, let's say, and silver went to 2%. You do the math, okay? 80 bucks. You know, if silver goes to its norm, I mean, gold goes to its normal eightfold bull trend and let's say it goes to 8,000, which it's done twice before. Remember, in terms of ratio, what's 2% of 8,000? Okay, silver is also well below its 2011 high. The miners just took out their 2011 high. GDX XAU gold's way above its 2011 high. And even a bloody base metal, copper, is currently trading above its 2011 price high. Is silver going to stay a dog forever or is it a mistake? And you and I know being in markets long enough, you'll find markets that get excessively overdone on the upside and are making a mistake and other markets that get excessively cheap and cheap relative to other assets on the downside and are ignored and ignored until finally they wake up and you say, "Golly, gee, I wish I'd realized that." And silver, our argument is the technicals argue to us silver between now and the end of the year in all likelihood is going to gush past 50 and be in somewhere in the 6070 range. That's not the top. I'm just saying as the first gush ultimately we're going up to that 2% level. The question is where's gold going to be? And by the way, whenever that spread breaks out, it never is the case that silver gains versus gold because gold goes down more than silver. It always gains because silver goes up net price more than gold goes up. And whenever that spread breaks out favoring silver, it's usually an indication of verticality in both metals. And so once again, your message is if somebody has not been invested in silver yet or in silver miners, there's still lots of time. There's a still the big move. We've still yet to see it. We have yet to see it. We've seen an arm wrestling move. You're not too late. Now, there will be a point where the volatility and the price swings will be even more dramatic, but we're not at that point. We're at the point now where the gusher, I think, is going to occur. the gusher that takes silver into a new reality and suddenly smacks investors in the face and they say, "Golly, silver just took out its two old highs." You know, which are relics really uh in terms of how far back in time and the real dollar value of silver in 1980 if it was 50. This many decades later, its real dollar value probably be 200. Okay, just to match that high. Anyway, that's where I think we are. And I think it's not too late, but things can change quickly in terms of let's just say gold uh tops out here in the next few months at 4,000 bucks an ounce. Uh 2% of that would be $80 an ounce. So, yeah. Any case, yeah, but I don't And that's at the low end. Yeah, you could go it could be 3% which would be 120. But even if you just go to the the norm of 21 of the last 50 years and in the bull market years it went way beyond that. But even if you just go to 2% again and sort of say go back up to the surface level, okay, there's a huge percent gain for silver relative to gold. And I think it's underway and we've started to see it since the beginning of this year. Silver's up a lot more than gold, especially since April. So, Michael, we can't have a discussion on gold without talking about the US dollar and it's been under pressure this past year. It's down 10% as measured by the DXY. What are your thoughts on the USD? The dollar index made a high of 115 back in 2022. It was still low compared to decades ago. Okay. It dropped sharply into 2023 down to 100 area and went into a dead range 2023, 2024 and early 2025 100 to about 108. They had one spike up to 110 but basically most of the action was in about a 7 to 8% range for two years which is very dull almost non-eventful. A lot of other markets were make making big moves. It wasn't was not a factor when it turned down from early highs this year and got down to 104 again. Actually 10421 was the close of March. We turned major bearish. Price-wise, you're only in the middle of the prior two years range, but momentum said you're gone. So momentum broke. Price didn't yet. Annual momentum of the dollar broke trends that went back 10 years, sometimes more. went to the 10-year average momentum of the dollar, which is even a longer term yard stick to measure momentum. Even longer back, it broke a beautiful uptrend line that you could see on momentum. You cannot see it on price on a price chart. What's been going on since that drop from March to April? Once we made a low in April, by the way, which was coincident with the stock market low, dollar dropped sharply with the stock market. The dollar tried to bounce with the stock market and it went into a an up down range from the low of April below that level and above that level. Four, five point swings and every rally everybody said, "Oh, the dollar's looking good." There was an uptrend line on a price chart of the dollar that goes back a decade that any idiot with a crayon could draw. And they did. And they've been buying it since the April low along that uptrend. Momentum says it's not going to hold. We're back now. This week, we've traded back under 97 this month. Back down to the lows of the move again. I don't think you're going to hold this time. Uh, and when the price guys finally realize, oh, my trend line's not holding. You know, let's say you close a month out at 9650 or 96, just a little below we are now. They're going to realize, oh, we made a mistake. That line didn't hold. Well, momentum already says it's not going to hold. We think you could go down into the 70s again if not make a new low below the low of a decade and a half ago which would create turbulence in other asset categories. Yeah, like you said, we've dropped, you know, we we've been bearish since 104, so you've dropped a pretty good number of points, but it's really not that earth shaking. The next 20 points could be earth shaking in terms of wave effects and that's when it'll start to impact other markets that up to now haven't been impacted severely by the dollar's movement. And again, this isn't real dollar value. This is dollar value versus other pieces of paper. Yen, the euro primarily and the yen, they constitute 70% of the dollar index. Now I want to ask you about the US financials and the last time we spoke you were quite concerned about them but a lot of these names have put in serious moves. We have JP Morgan trading at or near all-time highs is up 30% on the year. Goldman Sachs it's up 40%. Morgan Stanley up 25%. What are your views on US financial in the April break when the S&P actually in January started breaking the longerterm momentum especially as showed in April you know March April and well many indexes if you go and examine the quarterly momentum of half a dozen of the major banks which we we've put out a report on recently but also within the financial sector look at credit card companies like Visa and Mastercard they've gone vertical recently too and yet we hear all these, you know, you turn on your radio when you're driving down the road and you hear these ads on serious radio, whether you listen to CNN or Fox Business, it doesn't matter. We'll help you with your credit card debt. You know, so many of these ads, why are they doing that? So many people in trouble with their credit cards. Well, we know they are. We know that people are using their cards up to here. Many people are getting more past due. Uh defaults are increasing, etc. And yet these stocks behave like we don't care. They're drugged up. they don't care. Um when we run the momentum of the fin those type of stocks within the financial sector, we find that the April break broke through some stuff intrammon but came back and closed with enough of a bounce. So basically all these bank stocks, the biggest ones you could name, and Visa and Mastercard rebounded enough to say, "Oo, I'm back in a safe zone." Unlike what the breakage occurred in the S&P, for example, they didn't break the structure, but it's down there. And I'll tell you where you're trading right now. When we move into the next quarter and we adjust up the three quarter moving average, and therefore it it shifts the zero line on our oscillators where your relationship to where that average is, you're going to drop these momentum readings back down to death's door again. You cannot afford even a minor selloff in any of these symbols once we get into next quarter and close a month like you know 2 3% below where you are right now for example. Visa can't close where it is right now. It's going to break its quarterly momentum once we get into the fourth quarter. So we're keenly watching a sector that most of the public really isn't watching because all they see is the beauty of the price chart. Momentum says something totally different. It says you're standing on death store. You don't look good. Momentum is not making new highs. In fact, it's got a structure that if you saw the momentum chart, you'd say, "Oh boy, I got to sell that beast when he goes through that floor." And if you got I'm not sure if you're following following this sector. It's buy now pay later. Have you been reading about this? Yeah. No. Oh, yeah. The new industry that's arisen. Yeah, I've heard about and so a company just went public here recently called CLA. That's that's very indicative of something, isn't it? I think it is. Yeah. Oh, yeah. It's And their numbers are exploding like the Anyhow, it's just amazing because you have this younger generation especially that they're buying something today and they're going to pay for it tomorrow, but it just keeps snowballing, right? Next thing you know, and the other interesting thing about this Clara is that a high percent of the revenues are um people aren't paying. I think it might be 18 to 20% of their revs. Okay. Like that if that gets worse then you know what do you do? What are they going to do? Somebody somebody's behind them you know where they borrowed money too you know. So okay some lender out there. That's why you got to these type of events could impact the banks. I also think Bitcoin is a disaster waiting to happen and that that could be the ambush that really shocks people because we have structure on the Bitcoin. You look at a price chart, you see these nice three waves up since we got bullish in late 22, early 23 was down on the 20,000 level. But since then, it's created this bull trend that just looks lovely. You know, hey, happy times. But when you run a momentum chart of it, quarterly momentum for example, you have a you have a replica of the 1987 S&P quarterly momentum chart in terms of uhoh, I got something below me that if I break, I'm going to collapse. Right now, Bitcoin's trading 116,000. I think the recent low is now 107,000. You better not revisit that low next quarter. uh or when you look at the price chart and you say, "Well, it's not that important." Uh momentum says, "No, you'll blow the hell out of a floor that you've built since 2023. Multiple lows hitting the same level on momentum, not price." And I think that could be a psychological and financial ambush because Bitcoin now is financially important. 10 years ago, it didn't matter. It was it was a game on the side. Now, so many companies have got deeply involved where it's actually financially consequential. So, if we're right on the potential for Bitcoin to not just go down, but to go down sharply, that could be the kind of event that upturns a lot of people's thought processes. It's it's not coming from where they expect it. And that's the way bare markets usually begin is some place, oh god, I didn't think about that. Okay. I I think one of the things that's so confounding about this environment that we find ourselves in is that the S&P and the NASDAQ, they're making new highs every other day, but the economy just keeps chugging along. I mean, if you go back 8 months, 10, 12 months ago, everybody was talk, everybody was very concerned about the trade wars and the tariffs. It was going to be inflationary. Everybody's talking about a global recession. But here we are. We only got three months left in the year. Yeah. Markets are making new all-time highs. The GDP is growing at two and a half to 3%. Um the jobs numbers maybe maybe Yeah, maybe jobs numbers now. Where's your data source? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Jobs. Now that's a little bit concerning. Like we saw this massive revision here. Every month we get massive revisions, but we just had one for uh the full year ending in March of 2025. We lost or they revised down 911,000 jobs. Yeah. Why why even listen to it? Because if they have to adjust it that much, then it means the whole thing's, you know, what does it mean? You know, if you can't trust if they if they changed it, you know, 50,000, I'd say, okay, that's pretty tight, but you not that much. Says, what what do you pay attention to this stuff for? You know, uh, and besides, usually in bare markets, when you look at those data points, the reality, the real dark numbers that come after the stock markets really started down, then you start to see the numbers. Oh, golly. I wish I'd say, you know, so usually those numbers are are lagged to reality. Anyway, I guess one of the things I really question though is inflation because once again, like 2% inflation, forget it. It's we're never going to see that again. It's firmly at 3%. Let's say, if you believe the government numbers, I always double whatever the government says, I double it. So, let's say it's running at 6%. Right? I was just in London, Michael, and a cup of coffee, like in Toronto for Americano, I pay $3. In London, it was $6. I don't know how the hell these people survive over there. I got a cab from the airport to downtown London. It was 100 pounds, which is 200 Canadian dollars. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Just think about that. That's cool. Uh, like I don't care where you go in the US, in Canada, over in England, inflation is out of control and the only thing saving our bots right now is oil. Oil's hanging in in the low. Don't count on that saving you for too long cuz we've run studies. We run monthly studies on Bloomberg commodity index and all the key components, the major components within it, the grains, meats, energy, um, base metal, copper, so forth, sugar, cocoa, you know, all that. Uh, Bloomer commodity index looks prime for a major next up wave. Right now, it's trading about 103. You don't want to ever close a month out during this year above 10652. If you do, I'm going to break annual momentum out of a basing pattern that it's been in for two years. Remember Bloomberg hit a high Bloomberg commodity index. It went from a low under in the high 50s back in 2020. Was going down while gold went up, by the way, was different from gold. Uh and exploded from that 2020 low up to the 2022 March high. It peaked a few weeks after the war commenced at 140. So it more than doubled. Okay. And we call that move. It's since pulled back to 100. Actually got in the mid 90s repeatedly. But the last two years you could draw a line across 100 and it goes up just nowhere. Totally quiet basing. Crude oil's had a similar type pattern roughly call it 65 bucks or so. 65 to 70 zone sideways for couple years. next quarter you close out a month, it's 68 or higher, don't expect it to stay down. It's going to explode. And I don't know the reason why. It's not going to be a war event. In all likelihood, it's just I'm underpriced. I've been here for too long and I'm going up. And the Bloomberg is in the same position as crude oil. And therefore, you could get an ambush out of the commodity category of inflation. Inflation really is the degradation in the money unit. Sometimes it shows itself in stock prices. Sometimes it shows itself in commodity prices. Commodities are vastly underpriced. I mean, you're 103 on Bloomberg. You know where you were in 2008? 237. Okay. So, commodity prices are hardly quote high. You know, gold's above those highs, but Bloomberg is, you know, less than half the price high it saw 2008. Uh so if it turns up again that's going to shock people because we know we we have an administration was elected on the notion of we keep commodity prices down you know and especially gasoline price. We see crude oil is very technically ripe for an explosion and that's another ambush in investment categories that few people are anticipating. Certainly not President Trump. So, you are north of Denver and I'm always curious what people are paying for a gallon of gas. What are you paying? I think it's like 350 something like that for the 350 355 something like that. So, I'm based the conversion on the FX pardon me into gallons. I'm paying 375. Guess what they were paying in London? Um 850. It's around seven bucks. Seven bucks a gallon if you do the conversion. Well, that's cool. Think about that. Yeah, like choke, choke, choke. I I really don't know how people can survive in that town. Like, yeah. Well, okay. So, let's just summarize a few of our points here. S&P and the NASDAQ, they continue to make new highs price-wise, but you're saying don't trust it. The momentum has broken. Gold, silver, you're very bullish. They're going significantly higher. If you're not long, there's still ample opportunity to get long. because the price is going significantly higher on both. You're very negative on the US dollar. Uh and then commodities overall, you're bullish and it sounds like you're bullish on Well, I'm I'm pending bullish. We've got our trigger numbers and we're very big on that. And we may anticipate a trend by seeing structure built right for breakout one way or the other. Okay. And usually when momentum builds a structure that smacks you in the face and you could see a major upside breakout pending or a downside, it usually happens. momentum doesn't build structures not to use them. And right now, commodities are saying the opposite of what stocks are. They're saying, "Hey, we want to go up. We're undervalued." Stocks are the opposite. Uh and I think money moves. It doesn't leave everything historically. You know, when the stock market goes down, everything doesn't go down with it. Gold goes up. Sometimes commodities go up. Late 70s, example, 2008, 2011, commodities were up, stocks were down. Uh anyway, um and when it happens, it happens fast. Like remember a year ago, we were griping because nobody was paying attention to gold. Yeah. And silver, and here we are a year later and look at the moves. Yeah. Yeah. Astounding. All right. Well, this has been a great discussion, Michael, and I want to thank you very much for spending time with us today. And if somebody would like to follow you online or check out your research or your services, where can they go? oliversa.com. Um, take some time, look at our methodology. We discuss it at length, probably boring amount of length, but we explain it. It's unorthodox. Uh, we've got a lot of old sample reports there on site. You can see what we said at various times and why we said it. Uh, and if you want a sample report, you request it. And I will also include uh some links below in the show notes. Once again, Michael, thank you. Thank you much. See you again. [Music]
Gold Target $8000 Silver Target $160 | Michael Oliver and Jimmy Connor Interview
Summary
Transcript
[Music] Michael, thank you very much for joining us today. Uh, how are things in Denver? Uh, well, actually, I'm north of Denver. About an hour and a half. Uh, things are great. You know, good weather, nice view. Anyway, winter's coming. That'll be nice. That's good. That's good. So, um, first of all, I got to let you know this is my new background, my new setup here. You're the first one, uh, that I've interviewed with my new background. I got my money tree here. What do you think of my money tree? I'm hoping it's going to bring me good vibes. Well, ship me one of them, will you? I'd like one of those, too. I might have to get two of them. Okay. Anyhow, the last time we spoke was in April. I can't believe that. And so much has changed since then. At that time, the S&P was at 5,500. Now we're at 6,600. I can't believe it, but it's up 12% on the year. The NASDAQ 100 was at 19,600 at that time. Now it's at 24,500. It's up 14% on the year. We've had a massive rally off the April lows. And at that time, you said your message was don't trust this bounce. And yet we've gone significantly higher here. And it looks like this market will not stop. It's just like a runaway. So, what is your view on the S&P and the NASDAQ 100? Uh, we do not trust them. Price action has made new highs. By the way, it's not all that big. Yeah, the move to get here was big because we came from the depths of hell. You know, S&P dropped down to 4,800 from being over 6,000. And now we're I think less than 10% higher than we were in in February high in the S&P. I think that high was 6,100 if I'm not mistaken. So, we're, you know, less than far less than 10% above it. And it's been creepy crawly. The explosion from that April low, if you look at just a price chart, which we look beyond that, but was rapid. And then when you got up near the high, it's creepy crawly the whole way. It's, you know, it it it doesn't look it almost looks abnormal. I'm not going to say it's a conspiracy. Somebody's buying it like the government to keep it up, but it's just not behaving like a normal inhale exhale market. It's it's like incremental and every day they make a new high it's by oh by a quarter of a point a percent you know it's but we don't trust it momentum is broken meaning back in January the S&P had made a high above 6100 it started back down and no yeah in Janu early January and in fact it made its high in February I think so it made a high a little bit later but above 6,000 we got negative because momentum long-term momentum, meaning things like quarterly momentum. It's when you measure each monthly bar in its relationship to a three/arter moving average. So, you oscillate it. You create an oscillator, which is what we do. You don't just look at the average. The average itself could be meaningless whether you're above it or below it. You build structure on the momentum chart just like you do on a price chart. You know, uptrend lines, flat floors, that kind of thing. Almost always momentum will shift out of a given trend into a new emerging trend before price will. Okay. If you go back and look at the 2000 top, you go back and look at the 2007 process of topping which was spanned basically a year in each case. There was a point after which you broke enough things to say, "Oh, momentum says you're topping. You're no good." But price goes up and nips out a new high. Let me give you an example of a false breakout. The peak price in 2000 was$1,550 on the S&P. The peak price multiple years later, 2007. Seven years later, you finally got back up to 1550 again. This was like in the spring of 2007. So you'd seven full years just to get back to where you were then. And they sold it there again. and you dropped from 1550 S&P into the summer. Pretty nice little sell-off. And the double top guy said, "Oh boy, we nailed a double top." Right? Okay. Price came back up and broke out over the early 2007 price high and the 2000 price high. So it was like what you call a triple top breakout on price. You got up to 1576 in October of 2007. Why? The Fed cut rates in September. First time they cut rates in a long time. Everybody was partying. Let's buy the market. They had a price chart breakout. You know that orthodox chart analysis would say, "Oh boy, this is really good." That was the top period. You know, went 25 points beyond the old highs and everybody was cheering and it just sort of quietly slumped back below them. Big mistake and a bare market ensued. momentum already argued before that event occurred. Don't trust price. Same thing is happening right now. Do not trust the new price highs. Um, a lot of sectors within the market have not made new highs by the way. Uh, a lot of even if you look at the mag seven, flip through those seven charts, how many have made new highs? I think it's only three or four. Okay. Yeah, they've all bounced with the market, but some of them didn't make a new high like the S&P. So even the leadership is is gotten sharply narrowed. So your leadership is narrowing. The breadth of the market is narrowing. It's only well, you know, recently it's been Meta. Uh what else we got recently that's helped the market go up? Oracle recently, but there's a lot of stocks at the front end of the S&P that are heavily weighted. You know, they account for like 50 other stocks at the tail end in terms of waiting. uh and they've made new highs, but it's extremely narrow and very distorted. So, we don't trust it. I think money has already began to move out of it and move into other asset areas, particularly gold and silver. But anyway, that's our assessment of the stock market. I think we're making a major bull market peak and we've been doing it since early this year. So just to summarize, even though the S&P and the NASDAQ are making new highs, your view is the momentum of both indices is declining. Yeah, the momentum is having a rally, but it's already broken its structure. In other words, if you looked at a momentum chart of the S&P, like quarterly momentum or any other long-term metric like 100week average and stuff like that, you've broken an uptrend that goes all the way back to that 2022 low. Okay? So, the uptrend that was defined by multiple lows, nicely drawn trend line on momentum, you blew the heck out of it in April. In fact, you broke it in early March. Uh, and in some cases, you broke it in January. But then this whole rally when you look at a momentum chart isn't making a new high. Where is it? Where is it right now? Where has it been stalling? Because you know this creepy crawly action we've been getting is up underneath that which you broke on momentum. So if the if you looked at a momentum chart and treated it as a price chart, you'd say, "Hey, this is a rally up under a place. Ought to sell it." Okay? So we trust momentum more than price and we're doubtful of the stock market. Plus, if you're in markets to make money on a relative basis versus other asset categories, gold has been beating the pants off the S&P for actually it's it's doing better than the S&P for the last 10 years. Okay? In terms of where was gold in 2015 versus the S&P, we're much higher. You go back three years, we're much higher. You go back just the beginning of the year, you're much more up on the year than the S&P is. I think gold's up like 40% on the year and S&P's up what, seven, you know, from where it closed last year or, you know, whatever. Uh it's so the issue is where should I be not whether it's going up and another point to make there's always a degradation of money by the central banks. the Fed is equal accomplice to the ECB or the BOJ. You know, they all print print when they need it. And when you break these stock markets, they're going to be they'll be go gusher again. But if you go back just arbitrarily 25 years, quarter of a century, an investment lifetime, let's call it, go back to October or September of that year, September of this year, so it's been 25 years. S&P is up three and a half fold. Gold is up over 11fold. Yeah, big swings so forth and so on. When if you got into gold wrong, you got hurt and so forth. But basically, from a long-term point of view, gold is up 11fold, more than 11, and the S&P is up three and a half fold. So anyway, so one of the things that really confounds me about this market and is the I guess the amount of money that keeps going into it. And you you alluded to this earlier, but the S&P is currently trading at 22 times, okay, forward in earnings. And that's a very rich number. And that's in spite of all this negative news associated with trade wars and tariffs, etc. And then if you look at the Buffett indicator, which is just the total value of all stocks in the US divided by the GDP, it's also trading at or near all-time highs. It's well over 200% now. And so it doesn't matter what matrix you look at, this market is highly overvalued. Okay. And so if and when it breaks, um, are you okay? You're already saying the momentum is starting to break. But when it does break, where do you see the S&P going if it's at 6600 right now? What are we looking at? 30. No prediction on that ex. No prediction except to say you go back uh to the 1920s and look at the 23 to 29 bull. the dimension of it upside terms of percent gain in the Dow the number of years uh mid70s high ended with the crash in 74 gold was exploding while it crashed by the way in December 74 uh we're looking at the 19 94 to 2000 high about six years doubled or so for S&P triple for NASDAQ this this bull market since 2009 is is a bubble beyond ond all bubbles. Now, it is starting to fit into those metrics that you're looking at, which are foggy metrics, meaning they're not precise points to sell. They just say be distrustful. Okay? And they're probably correct. But remember, you know, the movie Big Short, okay? But there's three or four guys in different parts of the country who were sort of unorthodox said, "Hey, you know, we got a mortgage crisis coming." And they were right. And they were laughed at by their peers, you know, and even after but they said this in late 2005, 2006, 2007. It wasn't until you got into 2008 before the reality that they knew was coming came. So sometimes you can have these metrics like you mentioned that are sort of fundamental metrics that are valid but you know when when do I act on them and that's what we focus on and so what we're saying is we're topping the next leg down is likely to be the start of the one that actually gets the attention of the public it won't be a quickie like April was which was panic and and unfortunately headline associated tariff nonsense. Okay, is if that that's not the reason this market's going to go down. This market is a bubble beyond all bubbles in terms of increase over a period of time and it's been created by such factors just monetary particularly look at an M2 chart upward curvature okay uh in fact that's been ongoing for decades but it's really you know upward curve on the on the chart over the last 20 years or so and then look at the Fed funds rate chart I mean they for 10 of the last 15 years rates were at zero Oh, I mean that's Chich and Chong time. Get high, boy. You know, enjoy it. Buy stocks, get all the money you want. It's free. Okay. And even when they raise rates up 5%, if you go back 75 years and look at that rate compared to 75 years, it's at the low end. So, we've been drugged with monetary policy. And that creates bad decisions because one of your foundations of your thought process when you decide to build a new factory or uh sell your home and buy a bigger one or you know etc etc is the cost of money. And if all of a sudden the cost of money is like hey it's free you know uh or next to or cheaper than reality then you make a decision based in part large part on that issue. That could be a mistake because if that's not sustainable and also once you get these bubbles created every time they make a top 2000 2007 Fed started cutting rates it never helped the market collapsed anyway. So it went somewhere else and I'm already seeing where it's going. Gold, silver, and now recently especially the gold and silver miners. So you mentioned the movie Big Short. Fabulous movie. I've probably seen it a half a dozen times. Yeah. Another movie you have to check out is called Dumb Money. Have you seen that one? No. No. That one is all based on It just came out, I believe, three years ago. It was based on GameStop and that whole time period. Oh, okay. Cool. You got to watch it. It is a classic. Yeah. But, uh, you mentioned bubbles and you're saying this is the bubble of all bubbles and and I would totally agree. I guess one of the things that really astounds me about what we're seeing right now is that it's just not one bubble. It's a bubble after bubble after bubble, right? In the last five years, we had initial coin offerings or ICOs. Then we had NFTTS. We had thousands of cryptocurrencies. I mean, you and I could start a cryptocurrency right now. Yeah. Let's create our own money. Let's do it right now. Yeah. Sports betting, zero data options trading. like the level of speculation going on now is something we've never seen before in the history of mankind. But and of course AI I didn't even I almost forgot about that. But this when you see these extremes in speculation, does that concern you? Well, it's it's again it's one of those wet noodle indicators that it's a reality and ultimately it probably plays, but again the question is when because you know this has been going on for a while now. Okay. You know, I understand from various bank reports that I've I've read or heard about of analyzing their customers that are invested in the market and have an account in the bank that does that. You know, uh the the use of leverage has never been higher than it is now. And yet it's persisting. Okay? So, you can make an error but keep making it. And the longer you make it, the worse the consequence probably. But again, the issue is when. Okay. Yeah, it's a reality. Those are objective facts, but again, when? And that's what we're focused on. And I do think it's a key factor right now because when it does crack, we know what's going to happen to the central bank. They're going to go berserk even more so than they already are. Um, which case they'll lower rates, but they'll also increase money supply, etc., etc. But uh so and and that will impact other markets as well because when they in they push the throttle especially gold and the monetary metals will accelerate even further. Not that they're dependent on it because they've already anticipated that event. Money's already started to flow. Not not particularly American money by the way but other parts of the world have gone into the monetary metals. Wait till that starts. I think it's already begun and I think that's why the you've seen gold miners go vertical especially since April. Remember gold made a high in April that when we interviewed last time gold was up to I think 3,400 and it went dead sideways for five full months. They they sold it and they sold it thought, "Oh, this is the top. This is the top." It wasn't at the top. It was just a sleepy range. What happened since then? Miners exploded while gold went sideways. Silver went from mid30s lower 33 34 area uh for a year. In fact, it had been in fact in last May of 2024 it was up to 3270. So you could draw a line across that high through the next year of action and you did this on either side of it. And it wasn't until late June, July you finally went through the highs. So July, August, Sep, you know, oh boom, silver goes from mid30s to what? 43. Okay. So, while gold stood still, now gold is starting to reassert itself here. But, u I think that money flow that went into gold miners was from asset managers largely the larger ones, especially Numont, which has gone vertical for the last few months. Uh who've decided, hey, you know, uh they've they know the stuff you just mentioned, too many points of excess. I think I'll move 2 3% into the gold miners. They look undervalued. Gold's been doing good. No, I'm not a gold bug, but I'm going to move some money over there. But when they do, it's wet bar of soap time. Squirt on the upside because it's such a small sector. And I think that probably some of the power that's driven that is the doubtful asset managers in the stock market. Can't prove it. Just an assumption. Yes, I would agree with that assessment 100% because Pneumont as a reminder to our viewers back in January, February, it was down on the year. Now it's up 115% on the year. Second best performer in the S&P only lagging behind Palunteer. So now that we're talking, let's uh do a deeper dive on gold and I want to show a couple of charts that you u have sent me. The first one is called the gold monthly ratio scale and it goes all the way back since 1975. So it gives us a great overview of what's happening and where you think the price is going. Yeah. Right now if you look at a monthly price chart, just a regular arithmetic scale price chart and we'll go back to 2011 high and you had the drop into 2015 50% drop and from 2015 you you worked your way up but it was an arm wrestling process. In fact, there was one 20% correction in there between the early 22 22 high and the it was August 22 low. You went from 2000 down to 1613. Okay, pretty nice drop 20%. And then you reasserted yourself. But it was an ongoing arduous process and only now has it started to look like it's accelerating. And so if you looked at a bar chart of weekly or go or monthly gold and you're an average investor, you say, "Boy, that's been glorious. I'm glad I was in that." And you're thinking, "God, it can't go forever like this." But when you look at a ratio scaled chart, in other words, percent gain of a bull market and go back 50 years when the government approved it for us to trade, you know, God bless them. Uh you've had two bull markets. There were eightfold moves from bare low to bull high. Different duration of time. One was from 76 low to 1980. The other was from 2001 low to 2011. But they were both eightfold multiple gains for gold. We bottomed at,045 in December 2015. If we get eight-fold that just did what we did twice before for reasons that were far less dynamic and significant to the world fundamentally than what we've got now, you'd be at $8,400 or so just to match what had occurred before. So when you look at the current price chart, you think, "Oh my god, look how ballistic it is." When you put it on a logarithmic scale chart as we're showing, you know, it's just getting started, guys. We're not even halfway up to the gains we saw in those two bull markets. We're not even four-fold yet. Okay. So, uh that's something to consider. It's I don't trade off of it. You know, maybe we're not going to go eight-fold again, but considering the dynamics that are out there in other markets either way, upside or downside, uh it would be easy to see gold at least matching what it did then. So, don't don't think gold's overpriced. I'm so Okay. I'm sorry, Michael. I didn't hear that. So, gold's currently at 3,600. 3,700 bucks. 3,700. Yeah, that's only it's a triple, you know, from its low, you know, a triple from its low. So, what would that be? Well, the bare low in 2015 was $1,045 or,50, let's say. So, you've tripled it. Fine. That's great. A little more, but you're nowhere even half what those were. Those were eight-fold moves. And a lot of that move occurred in the last year or so of the move. In fact, that was the case in both cases. Most of the move occurred late in the bull trend. So, uh, and again, duration was different. One was a three and a half year bull, one was a 10-year bull. So, you know, maybe this this one's already a 10-year. Um well we'll yeah you know and u but it you know I think the dynamics are such that what you're going to see over the next handful of months especially over the next year in terms of monetary metal upside is going to be awesome and far different from the tone we've seen over the last 10 years in gold for example. So if somebody hasn't gotten involved in gold yet what's your message to them? Well, they're late, but on the other hand, it's a reality. Do I get in or not? I suggest yes. Our preference, well, especially when you look at gold miners. gold miners. Uh we don't have any charts on this, but relative to gold, the valuation of, for example, the XAU index, which has been around since the 1980s, the 1980s, 90s, and into well into 2000, like up until till about 2007 or 8, it was trading at either side of about 25% of the price of gold. In other words, divide XAU price into gold. It was about 25% of the price of an ounce of gold. It would oscillate above and below there. In fact, the low end of that multi-deade range was about 17.5%. So, let's let's remember that. In fact, when you see the spread chart, if you if you have one, we we publish it routinely. Let's call that resistance. Now, other words, if you ever get back up there, you bump your head on it. Okay. Where is gold right now? It's like uh pushing up toward, you know, it's at 7.6 7.7% I think right now XAU divided into an ounce of gold. So you could double and a half the miners right now on a relative price basis just to get to the underside of the prior multi-deade valuation that they used to have. So they are a vastly underpriced category of the monetary metals. And I think somebody's woken up and said, "Hey, this is cheap, low risk. I'm in." And that's why you've seen them get gooseed. But even getting gooseed to where they are, for example, GDX or XAU just recently, the last few weeks have taken out the 2011 price high. Gold did that, you know, when it took out 1920. So, they're just catching up. Yeah. So, even though a name like Numont's up over 100% on the year, Ken Ross is up 140%. Agniko's up 100%. Yeah. You still think there's a lot more room to Oh, no. think they've just begun because all they've done is they suddenly come back to where gold was at about 2,000 bucks, you know, back in 2020. Uh, gold's now 3700. Well, they're just getting up to the 2000 level. In effect, taking out the $1,920 high we had in 2011 on gold. GDX just took out that high. XAU just took out that high. So, in effect, it's saying I'm back. Okay? And it's still cheap because I mean if you take 2011 to the present, you know, 14 15 years or so, uh, and and and you say what's the real value of the currency unit we're using, real spending value, it's decreased marketkedly because the money supply like doubles almost every decade. Well, heck, you know, just to match the 2011 high, uh, you could probably double the current price of the miners and they'd still be where they were in real value terms versus 2011. And that puts us on the issue of silver, of course. Yeah. And to your point, many of them haven't taken out their uh 2011 highs. So, Agniko, I believe, might be the only name. Well, many of them have. Most of the silver miners are still way behind, but they're accelerating like SIL, the ETF of the silver miners. Is it a point of breakout versus GDX? Meaning if which do I buy, the go the gold miners, GDX or still the silver miners? I would suggest silver miners because there's more slingshot effect there likely meaning further percent gain than GDX will produce over the coming year or so. So, so let's talk about silver. Now, the other chart I want to show our viewers is another chart you sent me. It's the silver versus gold. And why don't we take a look at this and then give me some indication of where first of all how undervalued silver is in relation to gold and where you think silver might be going. Well, if if you look at that chart, what it shows is pick the monthly close each year that was the highest close of the price of silver relative to gold. And we calculate that by simply dividing an ounce of silver into an ounce of gold, express it as a percent. So you see the scale on the left goes from like, you know, zero up to seven or eight or whatever. And you see these bars, the highest reading you had each year. The lower horizontal line on that grid chart comes through at 2%. 21 of the past 50 years have reached 2%. Right now we're about 1.16%. Okay? We're very suppressed, very depressed relative to that norm. Okay? And in bull trends when silver gets going relative to gold like 79 to 80 2010 2011 the spread got up to 3.5% and and back in the 80 1980 got up to 6% plus okay so just getting to a routine been there before 21 times in the last 50 years many of those years not even bull trends I'd go to 2% well that's nearly a double of the current valuation of silver to hold. What usually happens is when that spread breaks out and you can't measure it that well on that graph I'm you know we're looking at but when we take it down to week-toeek action or monthly close to monthly close and we do an oscillator a momentum study of the spread not just looking at the spread we can see a breakout level not far above where we are right now that says we're going to gush we're headed sharply toward it in fact Since April, the silver gold spread has shot up pretty nicely. Silver is up much more on the year than gold is, by the way. Okay. So, it's it's catching up, but there's a breakout level on that spread that says, I'm going to launch, and it's we define the number in our weekend reports. Once you trigger that, you're going to gush up at least to that 2% level, probably even further. But let's just say we go to the norm 2%. Again, that's nearly a double from where you are now. Well, if gold went dead sideways at 4,000, let's say, and silver went to 2%. You do the math, okay? 80 bucks. You know, if silver goes to its norm, I mean, gold goes to its normal eightfold bull trend and let's say it goes to 8,000, which it's done twice before. Remember, in terms of ratio, what's 2% of 8,000? Okay, silver is also well below its 2011 high. The miners just took out their 2011 high. GDX XAU gold's way above its 2011 high. And even a bloody base metal, copper, is currently trading above its 2011 price high. Is silver going to stay a dog forever or is it a mistake? And you and I know being in markets long enough, you'll find markets that get excessively overdone on the upside and are making a mistake and other markets that get excessively cheap and cheap relative to other assets on the downside and are ignored and ignored until finally they wake up and you say, "Golly, gee, I wish I'd realized that." And silver, our argument is the technicals argue to us silver between now and the end of the year in all likelihood is going to gush past 50 and be in somewhere in the 6070 range. That's not the top. I'm just saying as the first gush ultimately we're going up to that 2% level. The question is where's gold going to be? And by the way, whenever that spread breaks out, it never is the case that silver gains versus gold because gold goes down more than silver. It always gains because silver goes up net price more than gold goes up. And whenever that spread breaks out favoring silver, it's usually an indication of verticality in both metals. And so once again, your message is if somebody has not been invested in silver yet or in silver miners, there's still lots of time. There's a still the big move. We've still yet to see it. We have yet to see it. We've seen an arm wrestling move. You're not too late. Now, there will be a point where the volatility and the price swings will be even more dramatic, but we're not at that point. We're at the point now where the gusher, I think, is going to occur. the gusher that takes silver into a new reality and suddenly smacks investors in the face and they say, "Golly, silver just took out its two old highs." You know, which are relics really uh in terms of how far back in time and the real dollar value of silver in 1980 if it was 50. This many decades later, its real dollar value probably be 200. Okay, just to match that high. Anyway, that's where I think we are. And I think it's not too late, but things can change quickly in terms of let's just say gold uh tops out here in the next few months at 4,000 bucks an ounce. Uh 2% of that would be $80 an ounce. So, yeah. Any case, yeah, but I don't And that's at the low end. Yeah, you could go it could be 3% which would be 120. But even if you just go to the the norm of 21 of the last 50 years and in the bull market years it went way beyond that. But even if you just go to 2% again and sort of say go back up to the surface level, okay, there's a huge percent gain for silver relative to gold. And I think it's underway and we've started to see it since the beginning of this year. Silver's up a lot more than gold, especially since April. So, Michael, we can't have a discussion on gold without talking about the US dollar and it's been under pressure this past year. It's down 10% as measured by the DXY. What are your thoughts on the USD? The dollar index made a high of 115 back in 2022. It was still low compared to decades ago. Okay. It dropped sharply into 2023 down to 100 area and went into a dead range 2023, 2024 and early 2025 100 to about 108. They had one spike up to 110 but basically most of the action was in about a 7 to 8% range for two years which is very dull almost non-eventful. A lot of other markets were make making big moves. It wasn't was not a factor when it turned down from early highs this year and got down to 104 again. Actually 10421 was the close of March. We turned major bearish. Price-wise, you're only in the middle of the prior two years range, but momentum said you're gone. So momentum broke. Price didn't yet. Annual momentum of the dollar broke trends that went back 10 years, sometimes more. went to the 10-year average momentum of the dollar, which is even a longer term yard stick to measure momentum. Even longer back, it broke a beautiful uptrend line that you could see on momentum. You cannot see it on price on a price chart. What's been going on since that drop from March to April? Once we made a low in April, by the way, which was coincident with the stock market low, dollar dropped sharply with the stock market. The dollar tried to bounce with the stock market and it went into a an up down range from the low of April below that level and above that level. Four, five point swings and every rally everybody said, "Oh, the dollar's looking good." There was an uptrend line on a price chart of the dollar that goes back a decade that any idiot with a crayon could draw. And they did. And they've been buying it since the April low along that uptrend. Momentum says it's not going to hold. We're back now. This week, we've traded back under 97 this month. Back down to the lows of the move again. I don't think you're going to hold this time. Uh, and when the price guys finally realize, oh, my trend line's not holding. You know, let's say you close a month out at 9650 or 96, just a little below we are now. They're going to realize, oh, we made a mistake. That line didn't hold. Well, momentum already says it's not going to hold. We think you could go down into the 70s again if not make a new low below the low of a decade and a half ago which would create turbulence in other asset categories. Yeah, like you said, we've dropped, you know, we we've been bearish since 104, so you've dropped a pretty good number of points, but it's really not that earth shaking. The next 20 points could be earth shaking in terms of wave effects and that's when it'll start to impact other markets that up to now haven't been impacted severely by the dollar's movement. And again, this isn't real dollar value. This is dollar value versus other pieces of paper. Yen, the euro primarily and the yen, they constitute 70% of the dollar index. Now I want to ask you about the US financials and the last time we spoke you were quite concerned about them but a lot of these names have put in serious moves. We have JP Morgan trading at or near all-time highs is up 30% on the year. Goldman Sachs it's up 40%. Morgan Stanley up 25%. What are your views on US financial in the April break when the S&P actually in January started breaking the longerterm momentum especially as showed in April you know March April and well many indexes if you go and examine the quarterly momentum of half a dozen of the major banks which we we've put out a report on recently but also within the financial sector look at credit card companies like Visa and Mastercard they've gone vertical recently too and yet we hear all these, you know, you turn on your radio when you're driving down the road and you hear these ads on serious radio, whether you listen to CNN or Fox Business, it doesn't matter. We'll help you with your credit card debt. You know, so many of these ads, why are they doing that? So many people in trouble with their credit cards. Well, we know they are. We know that people are using their cards up to here. Many people are getting more past due. Uh defaults are increasing, etc. And yet these stocks behave like we don't care. They're drugged up. they don't care. Um when we run the momentum of the fin those type of stocks within the financial sector, we find that the April break broke through some stuff intrammon but came back and closed with enough of a bounce. So basically all these bank stocks, the biggest ones you could name, and Visa and Mastercard rebounded enough to say, "Oo, I'm back in a safe zone." Unlike what the breakage occurred in the S&P, for example, they didn't break the structure, but it's down there. And I'll tell you where you're trading right now. When we move into the next quarter and we adjust up the three quarter moving average, and therefore it it shifts the zero line on our oscillators where your relationship to where that average is, you're going to drop these momentum readings back down to death's door again. You cannot afford even a minor selloff in any of these symbols once we get into next quarter and close a month like you know 2 3% below where you are right now for example. Visa can't close where it is right now. It's going to break its quarterly momentum once we get into the fourth quarter. So we're keenly watching a sector that most of the public really isn't watching because all they see is the beauty of the price chart. Momentum says something totally different. It says you're standing on death store. You don't look good. Momentum is not making new highs. In fact, it's got a structure that if you saw the momentum chart, you'd say, "Oh boy, I got to sell that beast when he goes through that floor." And if you got I'm not sure if you're following following this sector. It's buy now pay later. Have you been reading about this? Yeah. No. Oh, yeah. The new industry that's arisen. Yeah, I've heard about and so a company just went public here recently called CLA. That's that's very indicative of something, isn't it? I think it is. Yeah. Oh, yeah. It's And their numbers are exploding like the Anyhow, it's just amazing because you have this younger generation especially that they're buying something today and they're going to pay for it tomorrow, but it just keeps snowballing, right? Next thing you know, and the other interesting thing about this Clara is that a high percent of the revenues are um people aren't paying. I think it might be 18 to 20% of their revs. Okay. Like that if that gets worse then you know what do you do? What are they going to do? Somebody somebody's behind them you know where they borrowed money too you know. So okay some lender out there. That's why you got to these type of events could impact the banks. I also think Bitcoin is a disaster waiting to happen and that that could be the ambush that really shocks people because we have structure on the Bitcoin. You look at a price chart, you see these nice three waves up since we got bullish in late 22, early 23 was down on the 20,000 level. But since then, it's created this bull trend that just looks lovely. You know, hey, happy times. But when you run a momentum chart of it, quarterly momentum for example, you have a you have a replica of the 1987 S&P quarterly momentum chart in terms of uhoh, I got something below me that if I break, I'm going to collapse. Right now, Bitcoin's trading 116,000. I think the recent low is now 107,000. You better not revisit that low next quarter. uh or when you look at the price chart and you say, "Well, it's not that important." Uh momentum says, "No, you'll blow the hell out of a floor that you've built since 2023. Multiple lows hitting the same level on momentum, not price." And I think that could be a psychological and financial ambush because Bitcoin now is financially important. 10 years ago, it didn't matter. It was it was a game on the side. Now, so many companies have got deeply involved where it's actually financially consequential. So, if we're right on the potential for Bitcoin to not just go down, but to go down sharply, that could be the kind of event that upturns a lot of people's thought processes. It's it's not coming from where they expect it. And that's the way bare markets usually begin is some place, oh god, I didn't think about that. Okay. I I think one of the things that's so confounding about this environment that we find ourselves in is that the S&P and the NASDAQ, they're making new highs every other day, but the economy just keeps chugging along. I mean, if you go back 8 months, 10, 12 months ago, everybody was talk, everybody was very concerned about the trade wars and the tariffs. It was going to be inflationary. Everybody's talking about a global recession. But here we are. We only got three months left in the year. Yeah. Markets are making new all-time highs. The GDP is growing at two and a half to 3%. Um the jobs numbers maybe maybe Yeah, maybe jobs numbers now. Where's your data source? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Jobs. Now that's a little bit concerning. Like we saw this massive revision here. Every month we get massive revisions, but we just had one for uh the full year ending in March of 2025. We lost or they revised down 911,000 jobs. Yeah. Why why even listen to it? Because if they have to adjust it that much, then it means the whole thing's, you know, what does it mean? You know, if you can't trust if they if they changed it, you know, 50,000, I'd say, okay, that's pretty tight, but you not that much. Says, what what do you pay attention to this stuff for? You know, uh, and besides, usually in bare markets, when you look at those data points, the reality, the real dark numbers that come after the stock markets really started down, then you start to see the numbers. Oh, golly. I wish I'd say, you know, so usually those numbers are are lagged to reality. Anyway, I guess one of the things I really question though is inflation because once again, like 2% inflation, forget it. It's we're never going to see that again. It's firmly at 3%. Let's say, if you believe the government numbers, I always double whatever the government says, I double it. So, let's say it's running at 6%. Right? I was just in London, Michael, and a cup of coffee, like in Toronto for Americano, I pay $3. In London, it was $6. I don't know how the hell these people survive over there. I got a cab from the airport to downtown London. It was 100 pounds, which is 200 Canadian dollars. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Just think about that. That's cool. Uh, like I don't care where you go in the US, in Canada, over in England, inflation is out of control and the only thing saving our bots right now is oil. Oil's hanging in in the low. Don't count on that saving you for too long cuz we've run studies. We run monthly studies on Bloomberg commodity index and all the key components, the major components within it, the grains, meats, energy, um, base metal, copper, so forth, sugar, cocoa, you know, all that. Uh, Bloomer commodity index looks prime for a major next up wave. Right now, it's trading about 103. You don't want to ever close a month out during this year above 10652. If you do, I'm going to break annual momentum out of a basing pattern that it's been in for two years. Remember Bloomberg hit a high Bloomberg commodity index. It went from a low under in the high 50s back in 2020. Was going down while gold went up, by the way, was different from gold. Uh and exploded from that 2020 low up to the 2022 March high. It peaked a few weeks after the war commenced at 140. So it more than doubled. Okay. And we call that move. It's since pulled back to 100. Actually got in the mid 90s repeatedly. But the last two years you could draw a line across 100 and it goes up just nowhere. Totally quiet basing. Crude oil's had a similar type pattern roughly call it 65 bucks or so. 65 to 70 zone sideways for couple years. next quarter you close out a month, it's 68 or higher, don't expect it to stay down. It's going to explode. And I don't know the reason why. It's not going to be a war event. In all likelihood, it's just I'm underpriced. I've been here for too long and I'm going up. And the Bloomberg is in the same position as crude oil. And therefore, you could get an ambush out of the commodity category of inflation. Inflation really is the degradation in the money unit. Sometimes it shows itself in stock prices. Sometimes it shows itself in commodity prices. Commodities are vastly underpriced. I mean, you're 103 on Bloomberg. You know where you were in 2008? 237. Okay. So, commodity prices are hardly quote high. You know, gold's above those highs, but Bloomberg is, you know, less than half the price high it saw 2008. Uh so if it turns up again that's going to shock people because we know we we have an administration was elected on the notion of we keep commodity prices down you know and especially gasoline price. We see crude oil is very technically ripe for an explosion and that's another ambush in investment categories that few people are anticipating. Certainly not President Trump. So, you are north of Denver and I'm always curious what people are paying for a gallon of gas. What are you paying? I think it's like 350 something like that for the 350 355 something like that. So, I'm based the conversion on the FX pardon me into gallons. I'm paying 375. Guess what they were paying in London? Um 850. It's around seven bucks. Seven bucks a gallon if you do the conversion. Well, that's cool. Think about that. Yeah, like choke, choke, choke. I I really don't know how people can survive in that town. Like, yeah. Well, okay. So, let's just summarize a few of our points here. S&P and the NASDAQ, they continue to make new highs price-wise, but you're saying don't trust it. The momentum has broken. Gold, silver, you're very bullish. They're going significantly higher. If you're not long, there's still ample opportunity to get long. because the price is going significantly higher on both. You're very negative on the US dollar. Uh and then commodities overall, you're bullish and it sounds like you're bullish on Well, I'm I'm pending bullish. We've got our trigger numbers and we're very big on that. And we may anticipate a trend by seeing structure built right for breakout one way or the other. Okay. And usually when momentum builds a structure that smacks you in the face and you could see a major upside breakout pending or a downside, it usually happens. momentum doesn't build structures not to use them. And right now, commodities are saying the opposite of what stocks are. They're saying, "Hey, we want to go up. We're undervalued." Stocks are the opposite. Uh and I think money moves. It doesn't leave everything historically. You know, when the stock market goes down, everything doesn't go down with it. Gold goes up. Sometimes commodities go up. Late 70s, example, 2008, 2011, commodities were up, stocks were down. Uh anyway, um and when it happens, it happens fast. Like remember a year ago, we were griping because nobody was paying attention to gold. Yeah. And silver, and here we are a year later and look at the moves. Yeah. Yeah. Astounding. All right. Well, this has been a great discussion, Michael, and I want to thank you very much for spending time with us today. And if somebody would like to follow you online or check out your research or your services, where can they go? oliversa.com. Um, take some time, look at our methodology. We discuss it at length, probably boring amount of length, but we explain it. It's unorthodox. Uh, we've got a lot of old sample reports there on site. You can see what we said at various times and why we said it. Uh, and if you want a sample report, you request it. And I will also include uh some links below in the show notes. Once again, Michael, thank you. Thank you much. See you again. [Music]