Gold vs Bitcoin: Safe Haven Showdown, Fed Risks & The Future of Money | Alan Hibbard & Trey Reik
Summary
Investment Theme: The podcast explores the comparison between gold and Bitcoin as alternative investments and safe havens against traditional financial systems.
Market Insights: Both gold and Bitcoin are seen as protection against fiat currency debasement and excessive debt, with their value driven by concerns over the stability of the financial system.
Asset Characteristics: Gold and Bitcoin share characteristics such as decentralization and arduous creation, which contribute to their perceived value, rather than mere scarcity.
Safe Haven Status: Gold is established as a safe haven with a 5,000-year history, while Bitcoin is still developing its status, with significant volatility affecting its perception as a safe haven.
Institutional Adoption: Central banks are major buyers of gold, while Bitcoin adoption is expected to grow from retail to institutional investors, potentially including nation-states in the future.
Portfolio Strategy: Gold and Bitcoin can complement each other in a portfolio, with gold acting as a hedge against Bitcoin's volatility, especially for those seeking to exit traditional financial systems.
Future Outlook: The potential for central banks to back currencies with gold is discussed, while Bitcoin is seen as a long-term store of value, with both assets expected to appreciate significantly in fiat terms.
Transcript
Everything's at an all-time high, but we're going to cut rates. So, in that type of an environment, I think Bitcoin and gold smell the same problems. And I think if I were to put reduce it to one sentence, the one thing that Bitcoin and gold share is the opportunity to remove almost limitless amounts of cash from the financial system at a moment's notice. Scarcity is really not a good way to describe the value proposition of gold or Bitcoin. I would use a word like arduous. They're arduous. They're difficult to create. [Music] If you're looking for a simple, secure way to invest in physical gold and silver, check out Hard Assets Alliance at hardassetsalliance.com. Hi everyone, welcome back to Wealthium. I'm Mario, the channel's producer, and today we're continuing this month's special gold coverage with a really exciting conversation. We are asking one of the most important questions for investors right now, gold versus Bitcoin. What do these assets offer? How are they similar? How are they different? and which makes the better hedge in today's market. Joining me today are two excellent guests. Trey Reich, our very own wealth host, managing member of Bristol Gold Group, former senior portfolio manager at Sprout Asset Management, and a longtime expert on gold and precious metals. and Alan Hivery, precious metals and alternative money specialist at golds.com, co-host of the Golds show with Mike Maloney and co-author of the great gold and silver rush of the 21st century. Allan, by the way, is also an advocate for Bitcoin alongside Gold and Silver. So, how are you gentlemen? >> Fantastic. Thank you for having >> Terrific. Been looking forward to it. >> It's great to have you. So, this is very much a timely discussion, right guys? Gold is trading near record highs today, close to uh $3,800 an ounce. Bitcoin is holding around 112,000 per coin. It had a very big run earlier this year and that pushed it firmly into the six figure territory. Most certainly both assets are on investors radar as alternative to tradition alternatives to traditional markets. So um I really want us to you know dive deep. But before we dive in, just a quick note for our viewers. If you'd like to see how assets like gold or Bitcoin might fit into your portfolio, Wealthian offers a free portfolio review with one of our endorsed financial advisors. And you can sign up at wealthium.comfree. That's wealth.comfree. Okay, gents, let's commence. Gold has a 5,000 years. 5,000 years of history is money. Bitcoin is very new. 16 years and is also often called digital gold. So Alan, let's start with you. Why do people compare these two so often? >> Well, fundamentally, Bitcoin is very similar to gold because it's decentralized. It's a commodity. There's nobody in charge of it. And technically, if you look at the way that the free market responds to these two assets, it's actually quite similar. So if you look at the the curve of their price, you see it it moves slowly and lowly for a while and then it spikes and then that pattern repeats and you get a dip and then you get a runup. So it's concave up and that's in contrast to something like stocks or a risk asset which is actually concave down. In stocks or risk assets, you get a big move early and then it rolls over because the market already absorbs news or you know product announcements or that kind of thing. So stocks have that upside down concave down shape whereas gold and Bitcoin both have a concave up sort of safe haven shape. So there's a lot of reasons why Bitcoin is digital gold and that's that's just a few of them. >> Right. Right. Right. And uh if we look back in the last few years, you know, high inflation, massive debt, the the bricks becoming more of a of a thing in the world aka dd dollaration and fed policy swings. trade on your excellent gold webinar last week. We touched upon these things precisely. So, did gold and did Bitcoin really live up to that, you know, hedge role? Trey, what do you think? >> Mhm. Well, yeah, I think um, you know, there there are there are a lot of different things that have happened over the last 12 to 24 months. I think the big thing that the market's reacting to in the last six months especially is, you know, a weaker dollar. And I think that's one thing that makes Bitcoin and gold very similar as well. They're two of the only assets of which I'm aware I've studied gold as a footnote for quarter century and Bitcoin for a short period of time. So, I'm not 100% sure of all these numbers, but I'm pretty sure that the big uh correlation that gold and Bitcoin share is they're negatively correlated to the US dollar. And I think in that sense, the people who buy Bitcoin and the people who buy gold are buying them for much the same reason. They're different people. They're using different parameters, different portfolios. may even be different ages, but they're both seeking protection from this global debasement derby, which the modern era of unconventional central banking has brought us. And I think recently with the Trump administration, not a political statement, but just a a weak dollar is part I think of their platform and the Fed sort of finally getting between a rock and a hard place here. And you know, stocks are at an all-time high, Bitcoin's at an all-time high, gold's at an all-time high, real estate's at an all-time high, >> you know, and the Fed is about, it just commenced, you know, last week a new rate cutting cycle. So, I don't think that's ever happened before. >> The all-time high of everything. >> Everything's at an all-time high, but we're going to cut rates. So, in that type of an environment, I think Bitcoin and gold smell the same problems. And I think if I were to put reduce it to one sentence, the one thing that Bitcoin and gold share is the opportunity to remove almost limitless amounts of cash from the financial system at a moment's notice, >> right? And that's definitely very special. So you mentioned similarities. Another clear similarity is scarcity, right? Gold is limited by geology and costly mining. Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins by its code, by its foundations like TWI wrote it that way. Allan, how important is this scarcity feature, you know, for each assets value? Is that really why people want to buy gold and want to buy Bitcoin? >> Uh, I love this question and I'm actually about to come out with a video addressing the issue of scarcity. >> Awesome. I might be I might be one of the few people who thinks that scarcity is really not a good way to describe the value proposition of gold or Bitcoin. I would use a word like arduous. They're arduous. They're difficult to create. It's very difficult to create like if you want to increase the supply of of either asset by 1%. It is extremely difficult. It's extremely difficult to create 1% more gold than what we currently have. It's extremely difficult to create 1% more Bitcoin. But if you want to create 1% more dollars, my goodness, it's it's a snap of your fingers. It's a keystroke. It's very easy. And so that to me, that arduous property is more important than scarcity. And if you get caught up on scarcity and you say, okay, well, um, you know, gold is scarce on planet Earth, but it's infinite in the universe. And then you start to get confused. And then you say, well, gold is kind of scarce on Earth, but there's some things that are even more scarce than gold. So why aren't those money? and and your brain starts going down these related questions that are perfectly valid questions and it's because um people people um focus too much on that word scarcity and similarly with Bitcoin if you think okay it has value because it's scarce at 21 million why don't I just create a new coin that's 20 million or 19 million or some even more scarce number and then you know create a better Bitcoin well that sort of misunderstands where the value of Bitcoin comes from it's the fact that it's arduous it's so difficult to create more of it. And if you started with a brand new coin, for example, it would be trivial to create, you know, new coins on that network and there'd be no security and so forth. So scarcity is important in the sense that it's arduous and it's that arduous nature of both assets that makes them effectively scarce and that's where the value comes from. Throughout September, we're shining the spotlight on gold with a lineup of expert conversations, sharp market analysis, and practical investment guidance. To dive deeper, make sure to grab our complimentary gold investing report using the link in the description below. And Wealthon together with SCP Resource Finance will be hosting a global silver conference this October in Toronto. Eric Sprat will be delivering the keynote and it promises to be a landmark gathering for silver investors. You can find out more in the details in the description below. >> Right. Right. Yeah, that is a fascinating take. I remember we were talking last week, Trey, on this and how, you know, for in these new mines, right, for a few grams of gold, you need a full ton of ore, the material that miners get out. What do you think of Allen's take here? I was talking to Mario about was, you know, to get an idea of how difficult gold mining is, it's basically 400 ton trucks, right? In an open pit situation. And in that 400 tons, if it's one gram per ton, you're talking about 400 grams of gold. And at, you know, 30 grams of, you know, an ounce, you're talking about like eight coins in a 400 ounce truck rolling up the hill going to a crusher. So >> crazy. >> It is. It is very arduous. Um I I I love the term arduous. Actually never heard that before. It's a good one. The um you know the the the difference I I think all the similarities and differences between Bitcoin come down to a personal definition of money. And you know I think when I was listening to Allen say that what he was really saying is what makes effective money. If you can make a lot of it, it's not a good use. I actually looked up, you know, the typical definitions, divisibility, acceptability, limited supply, durability, un blah blah blah. So, Bitcoin and gold in different ways, >> you know, plug into that what makes good money. >> And the the the interesting part about what he said is it's not the fact that Bitcoin is really, you know, hard to make or, you know, it's limited in supply. It's that the above ground supply is stable versus the amount that can be made each year which is what you know he was talking about and arduous. So you know gold it's all above ground. It's the only commodity that isn't really consumed. It can only be destroyed by a few aggressive assets. It doesn't even melt until 1,400 degrees and all the gold ever mined is still with us. So, right, >> it's that stable above ground stock versus the flow which it really shares with Bitcoin >> for bizarrely different reasons, if you know what I mean. But it's that same stock toflow function that really is what makes good money. People have always said to me, you know, well, your gold, you can't eat it. You know, you don't put it in your roof. It just sits there. all these terminologies we've heard it's, you know, just sits in a vault and, you know, you can't use it, you can't consume it, you can't eat it, can't and so I always pull out, you know, a couple dollars from my pocket. And I said, well, when's the last time you ate a dollar bill or put it in your gas tank or in your roof? That's the point. You know, money, you're not supposed to be able to use it. So, I don't know, Bitcoin and gold share that stock to flow characteristic. >> Right. Right. You're thinking about money as a method of of exchange, right? But what about their safe haven appeal? Can we really apply gold's safe haven status to Bitcoin? >> What do you both think that first? >> Let's go with that one. Yeah. >> Uh oh, we're going to go with that one. Okay. >> Well, well, Trey, do you you have something? You can go first. >> I was just gonna say so far, no. I mean, I the one thing that I this is my opinion. The one thing that I think Bitcoin has failed miserably at is being a safe haven. Now, some people may have a definition of what that means and a time frame could be 10 years, 20 years from now or what they're trying to accomplish. But, you know, I looked it up since 2017, Bitcoin's gone down, you know, 85% twice and 77% once. And admittedly, it hasn't happened since 21. So, it's moving further into the safe haven status. But I don't think, you know, gold and Bitcoin are really comparable as a safe haven yet. Do you agree, Alan? >> Yeah, I think that's a totally fair assessment and you hit the nail on the head that it kind of depends how you define it, how you define safe haven and what you're trying to seek safety from. Uh and this is really something that every investor is going to have to do for themselves because uh you know if you if you are trying to flee dollar debasement or euro debasement or or whatever your currency is you could go into just about anything like just about anything's better than a fiat currency. Uh you know real estate stocks whatever. I mean we don't really think of those things as safe havens but if that's what you're trying to do then it kind of works for you. Um, but if you're trying to maybe express an opinion that's more profound or maybe even a moral standpoint that you don't even you don't even want to be in the existing financial system, you don't want stocks or bonds, you don't want that kind of stuff, maybe gold and Bitcoin are both valid exit points from the existing financial system and and that's your safe haven. So, there's so many ways you could define it. Um, it sort of it sort of depends what you're looking to do. Uh, but I agree with Trey that in the short term, Bitcoin it to the extent that it is a safe haven, which is debatable, it's certainly not on the same par or same caliber as gold, right? Gold has that 5,000-year history. It has that stability. It has that gravity to it. So, it doesn't have as much volatility. And I think when we when we think of the phrase safe haven, we're looking to escape volatility and we're looking to escape downside risk. And gold does that for sure. Bitcoin does not do that yet, but maybe 30 years from now it does. So, yeah, I guess it it really depends how you define safe haven. That's kind of that's kind of the takeaway. >> And I'm I'm gonna interrupt you, Mario, to ask >> Allan to uh talk about a concept that we talked about prior, which is ultimately what is your ultimate goal for Bitcoin's price >> price target? Like where do I think it'll go? Well, you mentioned that it, you know, ultimately it may be replaced. >> Well, I I what I think what I said there or what I meant to say there is in, you know, let's call it 30 years, 40 years, 50 years, Bitcoin could act as a safe haven the same way that gold does today. You know, there there'll be time to it. Um, but in terms of like a price target, are you like are you asking me how high in terms of dollars I think each Bitcoin could get? No, I thought I thought what we were talking about is that hundreds of years from now or at some time in the future, you were relatively convinced that Bitcoin will run its course >> and something else will replace it. Yeah. >> Oh, yeah. I've definitely said that before for sure. Um, yeah. Like I I I feel pretty certain, maybe that's foolish, but I feel pretty certain that at some point Bitcoin will go to zero. I also feel fairly certain that I will not live to see it. I think it'll be, you know, more more than 100 years from now, which is a totally separate topic. But, um, I expect what will happen is quite frankly something similar to what happened to the Constitution of the United States, which is it worked really well when the people who wrote it were still alive and maybe a generation or two after that. And then people take things for granted. They no longer are fighting for the same liberties and the same values that their father and grandfather and so forth fought for and they get lazy and eventually sources of evil, you might say. Maybe that's too extreme of a word, but but people who would be selfish will find a way in to corrupt the governance system in their own self-interest. And I don't think the people who uh are in charge of defending certain values will actually do it forever. Right? At some point people will sort of let their guard down. Maybe it's a hundred years, maybe it's 200 years. Um and then ultimately I think the the best values of Bitcoin will crumble the same way it happened with the US Constitution unfortunately. >> So let me excuse me for interrupting again, but let me take this sort of more to the present because we have a good rhythm here. So the 21 million hard cap. So I've studied that. I'm not particularly technologically inclined. I have difficulty with Instagram and you know Mari's already always telling me how to turn my computer on. So but for someone like me, how do you know the 21 million hard cap won't be changed by the people dominating the system when we get there? >> Oh, it could be. Yeah, it could be. So, so right now the way Bitcoin works is it's decentralized and so anybody, you, me, we could sit down and write any kind of uh BIP, Bitcoin improvement proposal. So, we could say, "Hey, why don't we change the rules of the network so that it it has more than 21 million coins. And if people think that's a good idea, they'll download our software and start running it." Most people today, 99% would say, "That's a terrible idea. How dare you?" you know, you're you don't embody the Bitcoin spirit and so forth. A hundred years from now, if all the people running uh Bitcoin nodes and if all the people mining Bitcoin, if they're all corporations or if they're nation states because individuals have for, you know, kind of given up on it, they could absolutely collude and say, "Hey, three years from now, let's implement this software patch that creates more Bitcoin. It's all going to go to these corporations or nation states." They absolutely could do that. So there there is no guarantee that it won't happen. It's very possible and given enough time 100 years two 200 years whatever it is it becomes increasingly more likely that it happens eventually in my opinion >> and it echoes what you were saying about the constitution right how it in practice today it's just a distillation of what the founding fathers wrote kind of in the same way what Satoshi Nakamoto wrote if this happens >> with this topic in our >> in practice it will be very different potentially ahead >> but in our lifetime you're saying that the folks that make money mining the bitcoins won't want to make that money some other way like what happens to that part of the bitcoin block you know the whole system >> after all the bitcoins are mined so roughly in the year 2140 all the bitcoins will be mined and at that point miners will be compensated based on transaction fees alone and so there'll be just a uh normal supply demand market like there is for anything gallons of milk you know can of corn whatever just be supply and demand so if if people want block space in other words if they want to make transactions on the Bitcoin network they'll have to pay you know they'll be they'll have to bid up and pay a high enough fee that they get block space and that will go to the miners and if nobody wants to send a transaction it it becomes cheaper and miners will drop off the network so it'll it'll just you know there'll be a constant uh supply and demand looking for equilibrium >> okay well before we move to the next topic Big gentlemen, I just wanted to share a quick announcement. Wealth is co-hosting a Glover Silver conference in Toronto this October this October with SCP Resource Finance and uh Trey and I will be there by the way recording and conducting interviews. It's really going to be one of the premier precious metals events of the year featuring top experts like uh Eric Spratt, Maria Renova from Product Management will be there as well and you know industry insiders who will share powerful insights and high growth silver mining opportunities. You can attend in person by signing up to our credit investor list at wealth.comredit or also you can join virtually. uh please find the details in the description below and I'll also put the link here as a banner. So now and we've touched upon this before but let's get to the here and now really dive deep on it. You know again like we were talking gold just broke into new record highs. It's getting close to $3,800. Bitcoin has been consolidating above 100K. So what's driving each each's rally right now? Are the forces the same? Uh, trailer, let's start with you on your take on gold. You have a super interesting uh insightful take on this. >> As as I mentioned, I think uh in in the terms of investment motivation, I think they're pretty similar. I think the Bitcoin folks and the gold folks are concerned about the financial system, concerned about excessive debt, concerned about fiat currencies, and concerned that the modern era of unconventional central banking has exacerbated these imbalances to the point you shorten this all up. Once you start QE, you can never stop. So in the current dollar standard system uh Bernani made that choice 2009 I believe and that's why they call it the nuclear option. Once you start QE you can never really stop. You know I ask people all the time who are mainstream generalist investors by the way why does the Fed need a $9 trillion balance sheet? And you know, it's only people who are concerned about that who I think, you know, and again with Nvidia hitting new highs and $4 trillion market cap, you know, we're the ones, you know, who maybe are worried about the wrong things. But with the Fed's balance sheet at 9 trillion, I think what's driving Bitcoin and gold are concerns about, you know, the stability of the financial system and debasement. Would you agree, Alan? >> Yeah, definitely. And in the case of gold, I I think the primary buyers are central banks, right? So so government central bank units that are worried about fiat that they're worried about their own currencies all over the globe. Uh so you know, we saw we saw a huge spike in uh buying on comx once Trump was elected, right, like less than a year ago. So >> I think he's he's hip to it whereas maybe the Biden administration wasn't. Um but this is happening all over the globe. So, you know, Putin in Russia and Xi Jinping in China and so forth. So, central banks are buying up gold. They're probably buying even more than they say. We know that China is for sure. Uh, and you know, they're concerned about their ability to control people through their currency because if their currencies fail, you know, the jig is up. They lose all their power. So, I think that's primarily what's happening with gold. And we don't see so much buying from retail for gold, which is interesting. So, that's probably going to come, right? And as the price goes up, people start to pay more attention to it and then they then they buy in. Uh, same with silver. Um, and in the case of Bitcoin, I haven't been following it closely enough to know who the primary buyers are. Now, Bitcoin is very interesting. I' I've been in Bitcoin for 10 years, and when Bitcoin was a very small market, the only people who bothered to look at it were retail investors. Because when the market cap is a million dollars, 10 million, a billion, you know, no no institutional investor can even look at that because the the market is just too small. So, Bitcoin is a very curious case. It's fascinating that it's actually uh a lot of buying happens in the opposite order. First, it's the little retail investor, then it's the big retail investor, then it's the small institutions, then the large institutions, eventually nation states, and uh you know, the first nation states that buy. I mean, there's a handful of them, but they're all very tiny countries with really small GDPs, and they're they're sort of irrelevant on the global stage. And then it's only going to be later that the, you know, the United Stateses and the China and the Russas end up buying Bitcoin. Um, but I agree with Trey that it's all for that reason of fiat currencies are failing. And so, it's a question of, you know, do you buy gold or Bitcoin or how much of each based on the type of investor you are. So, yeah, it's it's it's a lot of the same reasons. It's just happening maybe in a different order for each asset. >> And as we've talked about before, Mario, the uh big spur, I think, to the central bank buying, central banks bought between, you know, 200 and 400 tons, >> Russia frozen assets, >> but the February 22 freezing >> of Russian foreign exchange reserves, I mean, >> it's very rare when you look at a chart and you go, that's what happened. But February 22, >> China's gold holdings, China's Treasury holdings. You can see it in >> gold central Russia central bank will buy. Yeah. All the central banks. >> Biden's decision there was almost like a Nixon level decision, you know, to freeze 300 billion of of foreign assets totally changed the world's view of the dollar standard system. I think >> by the way uh yesterday's interview with you and Grant Williams touches quite a lot upon this and it's very interesting so and also on your webinar that we did last week last Wednesday super interesting so folks uh should definitely uh go go watch it. So, um, how do you see institutional adoption playing out for each? What you were talking about, Alan, was super interesting, right? How Bitcoin has been from the retail, the small guy to the institution. Um, but in the future, is gold going to be something that the retail will get into? And for Bitcoin, is it going to become more like gold in the sense that it's both accepted by all institutions and retails? What do you guys think? >> I would say yes to both. Eventually, the retail investor is going to get into gold. No question. Um, yeah. So, I'm I'm hearing some some people in that I know personally saying, "What? 3,400, 3,700? I don't have that much lying around to buy an ounce of gold." Right? They're saying that to me. So, I'll buy silver instead or or I'll wait and save up. Um, so that's tricky, but they'll get in. Of course, they'll get in when when they see gold go parabolic. It's starting to they're going to get in because that's just how it works. Um, and in the case of Bitcoin, yes, nation states will adopt it. It's I think that's just the game theory. They're going to have to. Some of them may do it in secret for a few years. Some may do it publicly. I I think the creation of the strategic Bitcoin reserve in the United States is more of a political move than anything else, but I also think that using it and growing it is an inevitability regardless of of who's in office or or what's going on um geopolitically. It's I think it's just something you have to do eventually. You just have to be delicate with taxpayer funds. And it's the optics that are really the the question mark. Um and and the timeline. It's not like is it going to happen? Yes or no. It is going to happen. It's just how quickly, at what pace, how do you pay for it? How do you handle it politically? Are you worried about getting reelected? Do you somehow distract from it with some other issue? Th those are the things you have to think through and work through. But do you buy it as a nation? Yeah, you're going to have to. You're not going to have a choice. >> You think it's inevitable. Yes. >> Um, and this plays into a question I want to ask both of you. I love economic and financial history. One of the things that happened in the 1930s during the the Rosland administration, FDR, was the confiscation of gold, right? Is Bitcoin susceptible to this kind of encroachment by government? And is gold also still potentially a a threat to government so that a replay of the 1930s will happen? Uh what do you think about uh that for gold Trey? And then we can have your thoughts on Bitcoin. >> So the big difference between that executive order and today is the dollar was tied to gold. So uh FDR he really he wasn't trying to take people's gold. He was trying to save the dollar and he did it by taking people's gold because you know people were you know turning in their dollars for gold because it was uh you know transferable back then. So, this is again my opinion, but I don't I don't really think the government uh they've got bigger problems than gold. And it it wouldn't really accomplish anything to confiscate people's gold because it's not tied to the dollar anymore. Um uh I don't see how they could confiscate Bitcoin. All they can do, in my opinion, is raise taxes. And you know that's one of the big advantages of Bitcoin is at least in my life a lot of people who own Bitcoin have the money so far out of the financial system I you know I'm not sure everybody's paying their taxes on crypto trades. What do you think Alan? >> Yeah. Um I agree with you. you know, executive order 6102, like at that time, 1933, the who it applied to was like basically everybody. It's like the common man because, you know, gold and the dollar, they were they were equivalent. Today, if you look at who owns gold, it's not just it's not regular people. It's people who are suspicious of the government. Like, it's people who are like, you know, it just is same with Bitcoin. It's like people who don't trust the government. They don't trust the dollar. and and those are the types of people who own that asset. So I think the government quote unquote knows better. They know that even if they made a law like that, they the compliance rate would be like 1% of people would actually do something. Uh whereas historically, I'm sure it was much higher. I don't know the compliance rate, but I bet a lot of people actually, you know, turned in their gold. So I don't think it's it would happen today. I I really don't think it would happen. I think it's much more likely that the government goes after financial assets that are digital and within their arms reach. So >> bank accounts, brokerage accounts, retirement accounts, I think all of those types of accounts are susceptible. I think gold and Bitcoin are some of the safest assets, especially Bitcoin that you have in cold storage, not sitting on an exchange. And then of course physical gold in your possession, not like gold in an ETF because you know that's in a brokerage account. So I don't I don't see it happening uh for a lot of reasons and I don't think it would be effective. >> The only thing I've worried about Mario and it was more 101 15 years ago. I did >> go through a period where I thought the federal government might you know the taxation of >> gold is at the collectible rate. It's not eligible for long-term capital gain tax. And I I used to think I actually had a friend who sold a bunch of coins because he was worried the government was going to take the tax rate to 50 or 60% and so he wanted to start his holding period over again. Um but even that I don't know it just it seems like peanuts given that's the other problem when you get into the trillion category which is what everything is these days. you know, we're go the amount of gold that you could and and the other thing to keep in mind is Americans like if you go around the globe, we hold much less gold than a lot of other countries. You know, we're sort of 5% of global consumption of gold each year. It's tiny. You know, Americans remember cash for gold. Like when gold goes up, people sell it. And you know, it's it's not a big I don't think it's a big asset here. I don't think it would be, you know, accomplished that much if the government tried, you know, to get involved. >> Is there any outlook for you guys who think that either the US or foreign governments will back their currencies with gold or maybe use crypto or Bitcoin as a method of exchange like El Salvador did? Well, Salvador still has uses the US dollar, but it allows exchange. It allows Bitcoin as money to use inside the economy. What do you what do you guys think? Could we see those days again? >> Well, on the gold side, obviously, central banks are sort of already doing that and buying a thousand tons a year the last three years. And you know, European central banks have a higher percentage of their reserves in gold. US doesn't because we're the reserve currency. But, you know, the go gold's already a pretty established central bank asset. And I think from their point of view, the thing that I think, you know, is almost evolving and is likely over the next decade is some sort of cover clause where central banks back 10, 15, 20% of their balance sheet with their gold reserves. The reason why I think that's possible is you could kind of get there from where we are today without a big dislocation in the gold market, >> right? because central banks already are such a big chunk of it. >> They've already got a pile of it. And >> you know, everybody talks about if we revalued, you know, the gold that we have theoretically in Fort Knox Treasury on the Fed's balance sheet to current prices, you know, it would it would uh, you know, raise a trillion dollars to make Treasury issuance that much less for a year. Not that I think there, you know, so it's there's a lot of gold around and in that sense, I do think it will play a role. What about Bitcoin? >> Yeah. Uh well, let me just say on gold quickly. I agree that it's possible and I I do think it's likely that the the next monetary system is backed by gold and not Bitcoin. That that's what I think globally. Um there's been So, first of all, you could look at the current administration in the US between Trump and Bessant um Secretary of State. They've both said that they like gold. They're gold bugs. There's something nice about having the dollar backed by gold. And uh Scott Patent basically said that he thinks there's a new Bretton Woods moment happening and he thinks it's in the next four years meaning in the Trump administration and he wants to be a part of it. So I absolutely think that's happening. I think it's likely. It's also a very Trump thing to do because of his ego. He loves, you know, putting his name on things like, you know, the Space Force and the strategic Bitcoin reserve and all these things. You know, he wants his name on it. So I think he wants to be the guy to do the next monetary system. I don't think he wants the next president to to do it or get credit for it. Um, so I think that's going to happen. Also, there was a very interesting article I saw on Zero Hedge a year or two years ago. Um, and it was basically about many countries, mostly in Europe, that were shifting the amount of gold reserves that they had so that they matched up with their peers in terms of a percentage of gold relative to their GDP. And some countries that had a lot of gold relative to GDP were kind of selling and countries that had very little gold relative to GDP were buying and they were sort of evening out um over a period of many years. And this was absolutely fascinating when I saw it and I thought, wow, there's there's probably a lot of discussions going on behind the scenes to get ready for this globally because pretty much every country is experiencing the same thing. They're inflating the value of their currency to nothing. Their citizens are being concerned. they're losing potentially losing control of their population. Um, and so it would make a lot of sense for countries to get together and negotiate a new monetary system based on gold. Um, and that's that's certainly more palatable to people globally than saying, "Hey, we're using Bitcoin." That just no. If you say if you >> swallow Yeah. If you said in 2025 or 2026, hey, we're back we're creating a global monetary system based on Bitcoin, you'd have revolts. People would revolt because they don't understand it. It's too weird. They No, they're not having any of it. If you back it by gold, I think people, you know, business could continue as usual. People would go on living their lives. So, that is what I think is going to happen. And I don't think I don't think Bitcoin will be part of the next official monetary system, but I do think it will continue to grow and acrue value in the background and then ultimately some number of years later. Maybe there will be a switch from gold to Bitcoin or something, but that's it's very hard to forecast that so far down the road. >> And it's interesting you mentioned that because that was exactly El Salvador's experience with Boulli putting Bitcoin as a method of exchange. People really don't use it. And obviously, Boulli has been very successful at investing in Bitcoin, putting El Salvador's reserves into Bitcoin because it's gone up so much. So, I want to talk a little bit about portfolio strategy for both Bitcoin and gold. And Alan, you own both. Trey, you long champion gold, but you're not against Bitcoin. I know that. Um, but I wanted to ask you guys, are gold and Bitcoin compliments or competitors in a portfolio? If let's say I had I wanted to all allocate 10% of my portfolio to gold and Bitcoin, how would you invest in this mix? What do you think, Trey? >> Well, I should also give you the footnote that having done gold for 25 years, the biggest mistake I've ever made in my career is not being more involved in Bitcoin. And a lot of the folks in the gold community were on it early 15 >> true >> years ago and a couple of them have made more money in the last two or three years than I have in my life. So it's it's been a terrible terrible decision on my part. Um, but I'm definitely in the group of people that, you know, when I look at Bitcoin now at 113 grand, it's it's like when Alan was saying earlier with gold at 3,800, it's hard to wrap your mind around the one coin being worth 3,800. And I'm yeah, >> clearly in that uh, you know, if I bought Bitcoin, it would definitely go down. Like, you know, there's that psychological, >> you know, concern here. Um, so when I look at a portfolio, I you know, and again, this is just me. I think Bitcoin has been the best speculation of my lifetime. It's, you know, and it has, it's just the numbers. They're nothing. >> Yeah. >> Gold since 2000 has sort of done what we expected. It's out, it's gone from 250 to 3,800. So, everybody knows that if you go back to March of 2000, you know, the S&P is still down 68% in gold terms. But you know that's picking your beginning point and your ending point measurement and all of that. >> But the point is that over that time frame gold has done sort of exactly you know what we hoped we would do it would do and has done. But Bitcoin's been you know you can't compare it. There's nothing that compares to what Bitcoin has done. It's been the best speculation of our lifetime. >> Right. Is there a bit of a gener generational divide here? Right. Because >> does Bitcoin buyers and connoissurs like Allan >> these younger? >> Are you saying I look old? I've actually read recently that gold is becoming more popular with sort of millennial type people um because there's this backlash to the digital age and you know um the internet >> and generation set and a back backlash >> against big government as well. I think it's actually getting a little cool to have some gold again, but there's no question that, you know, the digital component of it, >> you look as young as a millennial with gold coin, >> you know, me and Jamie Diamond, we sort of still don't get it. But um but there's no you know no question that it that you know as as a speculation I think everybody and the other thing I've told gold executives over and over you know gold executives used to get up and give presentations and badmouth Bitcoin >> and I would tell them each one by one I go that's not a good look you don't you know you don't want to denigrate Bitcoin you it's not something that makes you look smart you know what I mean it's it's You know, it's clearly a phenomenon like, you know, we've never seen. There's something to it. It's 2.2 trillion. It's all happened right in front of our faces. So, but how do you see it in a portfolio, Alan? >> Well, for me, it's the bulk of my portfolio. >> Okay. >> That's because it's gone up so much. >> That's funny, right? Like there's a there's a joke like if you if you're afraid of putting, you know, 10% of Bitcoin in your portfolio, just put in 1% and wait a few years, right? it'll be 10%. >> So, um, yeah. Well, when the first time the first time I bought gold and Bitcoin, it was in the same month. It was July of 2015, and, uh, gold was about 1,200. So, I had to save up 1,200 to buy gold. And then I only put $1,000 into Bitcoin because you could basically pick any denomination. And, you know, that was my portfolio. And whatever, it grows over time. Fine. Um, but five months later, I sold the Bitcoin because I made a 50% return. 50%. My 1,000 turned into,500. And I I go 50% in a year. The stock market only does seven. So, I sold my bitcoins thinking I was the greatest trader ever. And like I should have held those bitcoins obviously, right? You know, should have held it the whole time. But um so at that stage of my awareness of what Bitcoin is, it fit into my portfolio very differently than it fits in today. Today I re I my perspective is that it's a store of wealth just like gold. And I look at gold as a hedge against Bitcoin. If my Bitcoin fails, that's what all my gold is for, >> right? I I like I have physical gold in case something weird happens with Bitcoin that maybe I wasn't anticipating or I got it wrong. I've got the gold to fall back on. I don't own any stocks or bonds. I don't want that stuff in brokerage accounts. I don't want the government to be able to touch it aside from the fact that everything's overvalued anyways and you know the fundamentals don't make sense of a lot of those investments and so forth um relative to these others. So where bitcoin fits into my portfolio is as an escape not just from the dollar but from the entire financial system and the entire current system of governance. We have had a hundred years call it of horrible leadership all over the world. Maybe you can pinpoint an exception but I think we are coming to the end of a leadership crisis that is a product of a monetary system crisis. really ever since the Federal Reserve 1913. When you have that kind of system in place, you really it's almost impossible to have a good leader. It's almost impossible because if you do all the right things, you get punished and you get crippled by anyone who cheats. All the cheaters get rewarded. And so, you just simply can't have good leadership. So, the way I look at Bitcoin and gold is a way of starting over. It's just exiting the current system. It's starting over with values that I believe in. They're I think they're both honest money. they have to be worked into existence instead of promised into existence like the dollar. Um, but I also recognize that for the average person watching, if you don't have that same conviction that I have about Bitcoin or gold, they're going to serve a completely different function in your portfolio. Maybe you only put 1% into Bitcoin, 10% into gold, and the rest is stocks and bonds until you do a lot more research. So, it really depends where you're coming from. It depends on your worldview. It does depend on your age because if you're already retired, you probably don't need any Bitcoin. Like probably I would say gold makes way more sense for you. Um because there's just no point in taking the risk. Um but if you're >> Yeah. You don't want that volatility in your portfolio if you're >> Yeah. >> the older segment of the population. >> Yeah. And if you're younger and you don't want volatility, just buy 1% Bitcoin and you won't even notice it on a portfolio basis. You you literally won't even notice. Um, so it really depends where you're coming from, what your objectives are. But the one takeaway that I would say to everyone is keep learning. Just keep learning. Ask questions. Just keep learning about all these different assets and you'll figure out what to do. >> Yeah. And don't feel bad for as a traditional, very traditional value investor. I also missed the boat on Bitcoin. >> I don't know. I think the first time I heard about it was back in 2011, 2012. Uh, and >> it's funny, a friend of mine told me that >> definitely painful >> when you have something like Bitcoin, the biggest risk is having zero. So, this is a great example of, you know, you know what you know, so you have that, but if you know thing, if there's things you don't know about, zero is a very dangerous allocation because you don't know. >> It's as dangerous as 100%. That's so wise. Yeah. >> Yeah. But you gota you should have market weight something in the middle if you don't if something like Bitcoin is coming along and that was my mistake. >> Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. So a really important message I want to share with viewers. If you're thinking about owning gold after this conversation wealth sister company Hard Assets Alliance make it makes it really easy to buy and store physical precious metals safely and conveniently. Just uh go to hardassalliance.com. Again everybody, that's hardassallalliance.com. All right, Jeff, we're running out of time. Can't believe it's been almost an hour of chatting about gold versus Bitcoin or Bitcoin versus gold. Just really quickly, two sentences. Trey, what's your outlook for gold in the next 5 10 years? Same for you, Alan, and for Bitcoin as well. >> So, you know, obviously predicting the gold price, you know, is a bad idea. But I I will I will let me put it this way. I'm surprised how quickly gold is going up these days. And uh you know after last year's 27% move uh what I I don't even know what we're up this year 45% at 3,800. It's it's certainly been a much faster than I think old pros in the gold category would have expected. But what it means to me is that these three long-term fundamentals that the gold trade is built on, which are anti-dollar sentiment, uh declining Fed credibility, and the US budget deficit. Those three things, anti-doll, budget deficit, Fed cred. We've been talking about them for decades. They're not new. They're not revolutionary. Uh gold bugs have been talking about them for decades, but I think they're all hitting inflection points. uh which we've been waiting for and as gold people we're trained to sort of look over your shoulder what can go wrong but I really do think we've hit that point. So I think now looking forward numbers that have always sort of scared me like 4,000 and 5,000 to be associated with I think are very likely. Uh so I think gold's going higher. um you know something like 5,000 in the next 12 months seems entirely possible on a percentage basis. It's not even it's not even as you know not that much of a percentage move, >> but I'll leave the Bitcoin targets to Allen. >> Yeah, I I agree with everything you just said, Trey. Uh and a lot of it applies to Bitcoin, too. Uh it's a lot of people just trying to exit the dollar um and express a bearish bet on the dollar. That that's really what it is. And it's saying like look, I can't store my wealth in the dollar. I need something else. >> And so gold and bitcoin, I think, are both valid targets in in that respect. And so where do they go measured in fiat? I mean, it's it's the inverse of where does fiat go. So fiat's going to go to zero. So one divided by zero, well undefined. So, so you know, so if we wanted to pick a time frame, you know, 6 months, 12 months, whatever, you know, these things are going to keep growing 30, 40, 50% a year, I think, the next few years. So, you know, it it doesn't matter. Like, I don't I don't think in terms of short-term prices anymore. My trading days are over. I'm a long-term hodler now for for both assets. So, I'm not I'm not worried about the price. And when I get a pullback, I get excited because I get to buy more. And I know that in the long term, these things are going to be much more valuable than they're than they are today. And they're going to be much more valuable than dollars. So everything's going up. >> Very well said. >> Excellent. Yeah. Excellent way of finishing this conversation. Very well said, Ally indeed. So gentlemen, thank you very much for joining me. It was a fascinating discussion. for our viewers. Really quickly, if you'd like to dig deeper into gold, don't forget to download our free gold report at wealth.com/gold. And if you enjoy this conversation, please hit the like button, subscribe to our channel, and share your thoughts in the comments. Please, it'd be interesting if you let us know, are you team gold? Are you team Bitcoin? Or do you like both? So, thank you all for watching, and we'll see you next time. If you have any questions about how to navigate the current environment, Wealthon can help connect you with a vetted advisor to get a free portfolio review. Just click the link in the description below or head to wealthon.com/free. There's no obligation and it will just take a few minutes of your time. Again, that's wealth.comfree. Thanks so much for joining us. We'll see you again next time. 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Gold vs Bitcoin: Safe Haven Showdown, Fed Risks & The Future of Money | Alan Hibbard & Trey Reik
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Everything's at an all-time high, but we're going to cut rates. So, in that type of an environment, I think Bitcoin and gold smell the same problems. And I think if I were to put reduce it to one sentence, the one thing that Bitcoin and gold share is the opportunity to remove almost limitless amounts of cash from the financial system at a moment's notice. Scarcity is really not a good way to describe the value proposition of gold or Bitcoin. I would use a word like arduous. They're arduous. They're difficult to create. [Music] If you're looking for a simple, secure way to invest in physical gold and silver, check out Hard Assets Alliance at hardassetsalliance.com. Hi everyone, welcome back to Wealthium. I'm Mario, the channel's producer, and today we're continuing this month's special gold coverage with a really exciting conversation. We are asking one of the most important questions for investors right now, gold versus Bitcoin. What do these assets offer? How are they similar? How are they different? and which makes the better hedge in today's market. Joining me today are two excellent guests. Trey Reich, our very own wealth host, managing member of Bristol Gold Group, former senior portfolio manager at Sprout Asset Management, and a longtime expert on gold and precious metals. and Alan Hivery, precious metals and alternative money specialist at golds.com, co-host of the Golds show with Mike Maloney and co-author of the great gold and silver rush of the 21st century. Allan, by the way, is also an advocate for Bitcoin alongside Gold and Silver. So, how are you gentlemen? >> Fantastic. Thank you for having >> Terrific. Been looking forward to it. >> It's great to have you. So, this is very much a timely discussion, right guys? Gold is trading near record highs today, close to uh $3,800 an ounce. Bitcoin is holding around 112,000 per coin. It had a very big run earlier this year and that pushed it firmly into the six figure territory. Most certainly both assets are on investors radar as alternative to tradition alternatives to traditional markets. So um I really want us to you know dive deep. But before we dive in, just a quick note for our viewers. If you'd like to see how assets like gold or Bitcoin might fit into your portfolio, Wealthian offers a free portfolio review with one of our endorsed financial advisors. And you can sign up at wealthium.comfree. That's wealth.comfree. Okay, gents, let's commence. Gold has a 5,000 years. 5,000 years of history is money. Bitcoin is very new. 16 years and is also often called digital gold. So Alan, let's start with you. Why do people compare these two so often? >> Well, fundamentally, Bitcoin is very similar to gold because it's decentralized. It's a commodity. There's nobody in charge of it. And technically, if you look at the way that the free market responds to these two assets, it's actually quite similar. So if you look at the the curve of their price, you see it it moves slowly and lowly for a while and then it spikes and then that pattern repeats and you get a dip and then you get a runup. So it's concave up and that's in contrast to something like stocks or a risk asset which is actually concave down. In stocks or risk assets, you get a big move early and then it rolls over because the market already absorbs news or you know product announcements or that kind of thing. So stocks have that upside down concave down shape whereas gold and Bitcoin both have a concave up sort of safe haven shape. So there's a lot of reasons why Bitcoin is digital gold and that's that's just a few of them. >> Right. Right. Right. And uh if we look back in the last few years, you know, high inflation, massive debt, the the bricks becoming more of a of a thing in the world aka dd dollaration and fed policy swings. trade on your excellent gold webinar last week. We touched upon these things precisely. So, did gold and did Bitcoin really live up to that, you know, hedge role? Trey, what do you think? >> Mhm. Well, yeah, I think um, you know, there there are there are a lot of different things that have happened over the last 12 to 24 months. I think the big thing that the market's reacting to in the last six months especially is, you know, a weaker dollar. And I think that's one thing that makes Bitcoin and gold very similar as well. They're two of the only assets of which I'm aware I've studied gold as a footnote for quarter century and Bitcoin for a short period of time. So, I'm not 100% sure of all these numbers, but I'm pretty sure that the big uh correlation that gold and Bitcoin share is they're negatively correlated to the US dollar. And I think in that sense, the people who buy Bitcoin and the people who buy gold are buying them for much the same reason. They're different people. They're using different parameters, different portfolios. may even be different ages, but they're both seeking protection from this global debasement derby, which the modern era of unconventional central banking has brought us. And I think recently with the Trump administration, not a political statement, but just a a weak dollar is part I think of their platform and the Fed sort of finally getting between a rock and a hard place here. And you know, stocks are at an all-time high, Bitcoin's at an all-time high, gold's at an all-time high, real estate's at an all-time high, >> you know, and the Fed is about, it just commenced, you know, last week a new rate cutting cycle. So, I don't think that's ever happened before. >> The all-time high of everything. >> Everything's at an all-time high, but we're going to cut rates. So, in that type of an environment, I think Bitcoin and gold smell the same problems. And I think if I were to put reduce it to one sentence, the one thing that Bitcoin and gold share is the opportunity to remove almost limitless amounts of cash from the financial system at a moment's notice, >> right? And that's definitely very special. So you mentioned similarities. Another clear similarity is scarcity, right? Gold is limited by geology and costly mining. Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins by its code, by its foundations like TWI wrote it that way. Allan, how important is this scarcity feature, you know, for each assets value? Is that really why people want to buy gold and want to buy Bitcoin? >> Uh, I love this question and I'm actually about to come out with a video addressing the issue of scarcity. >> Awesome. I might be I might be one of the few people who thinks that scarcity is really not a good way to describe the value proposition of gold or Bitcoin. I would use a word like arduous. They're arduous. They're difficult to create. It's very difficult to create like if you want to increase the supply of of either asset by 1%. It is extremely difficult. It's extremely difficult to create 1% more gold than what we currently have. It's extremely difficult to create 1% more Bitcoin. But if you want to create 1% more dollars, my goodness, it's it's a snap of your fingers. It's a keystroke. It's very easy. And so that to me, that arduous property is more important than scarcity. And if you get caught up on scarcity and you say, okay, well, um, you know, gold is scarce on planet Earth, but it's infinite in the universe. And then you start to get confused. And then you say, well, gold is kind of scarce on Earth, but there's some things that are even more scarce than gold. So why aren't those money? and and your brain starts going down these related questions that are perfectly valid questions and it's because um people people um focus too much on that word scarcity and similarly with Bitcoin if you think okay it has value because it's scarce at 21 million why don't I just create a new coin that's 20 million or 19 million or some even more scarce number and then you know create a better Bitcoin well that sort of misunderstands where the value of Bitcoin comes from it's the fact that it's arduous it's so difficult to create more of it. And if you started with a brand new coin, for example, it would be trivial to create, you know, new coins on that network and there'd be no security and so forth. So scarcity is important in the sense that it's arduous and it's that arduous nature of both assets that makes them effectively scarce and that's where the value comes from. Throughout September, we're shining the spotlight on gold with a lineup of expert conversations, sharp market analysis, and practical investment guidance. To dive deeper, make sure to grab our complimentary gold investing report using the link in the description below. And Wealthon together with SCP Resource Finance will be hosting a global silver conference this October in Toronto. Eric Sprat will be delivering the keynote and it promises to be a landmark gathering for silver investors. You can find out more in the details in the description below. >> Right. Right. Yeah, that is a fascinating take. I remember we were talking last week, Trey, on this and how, you know, for in these new mines, right, for a few grams of gold, you need a full ton of ore, the material that miners get out. What do you think of Allen's take here? I was talking to Mario about was, you know, to get an idea of how difficult gold mining is, it's basically 400 ton trucks, right? In an open pit situation. And in that 400 tons, if it's one gram per ton, you're talking about 400 grams of gold. And at, you know, 30 grams of, you know, an ounce, you're talking about like eight coins in a 400 ounce truck rolling up the hill going to a crusher. So >> crazy. >> It is. It is very arduous. Um I I I love the term arduous. Actually never heard that before. It's a good one. The um you know the the the difference I I think all the similarities and differences between Bitcoin come down to a personal definition of money. And you know I think when I was listening to Allen say that what he was really saying is what makes effective money. If you can make a lot of it, it's not a good use. I actually looked up, you know, the typical definitions, divisibility, acceptability, limited supply, durability, un blah blah blah. So, Bitcoin and gold in different ways, >> you know, plug into that what makes good money. >> And the the the interesting part about what he said is it's not the fact that Bitcoin is really, you know, hard to make or, you know, it's limited in supply. It's that the above ground supply is stable versus the amount that can be made each year which is what you know he was talking about and arduous. So you know gold it's all above ground. It's the only commodity that isn't really consumed. It can only be destroyed by a few aggressive assets. It doesn't even melt until 1,400 degrees and all the gold ever mined is still with us. So, right, >> it's that stable above ground stock versus the flow which it really shares with Bitcoin >> for bizarrely different reasons, if you know what I mean. But it's that same stock toflow function that really is what makes good money. People have always said to me, you know, well, your gold, you can't eat it. You know, you don't put it in your roof. It just sits there. all these terminologies we've heard it's, you know, just sits in a vault and, you know, you can't use it, you can't consume it, you can't eat it, can't and so I always pull out, you know, a couple dollars from my pocket. And I said, well, when's the last time you ate a dollar bill or put it in your gas tank or in your roof? That's the point. You know, money, you're not supposed to be able to use it. So, I don't know, Bitcoin and gold share that stock to flow characteristic. >> Right. Right. You're thinking about money as a method of of exchange, right? But what about their safe haven appeal? Can we really apply gold's safe haven status to Bitcoin? >> What do you both think that first? >> Let's go with that one. Yeah. >> Uh oh, we're going to go with that one. Okay. >> Well, well, Trey, do you you have something? You can go first. >> I was just gonna say so far, no. I mean, I the one thing that I this is my opinion. The one thing that I think Bitcoin has failed miserably at is being a safe haven. Now, some people may have a definition of what that means and a time frame could be 10 years, 20 years from now or what they're trying to accomplish. But, you know, I looked it up since 2017, Bitcoin's gone down, you know, 85% twice and 77% once. And admittedly, it hasn't happened since 21. So, it's moving further into the safe haven status. But I don't think, you know, gold and Bitcoin are really comparable as a safe haven yet. Do you agree, Alan? >> Yeah, I think that's a totally fair assessment and you hit the nail on the head that it kind of depends how you define it, how you define safe haven and what you're trying to seek safety from. Uh and this is really something that every investor is going to have to do for themselves because uh you know if you if you are trying to flee dollar debasement or euro debasement or or whatever your currency is you could go into just about anything like just about anything's better than a fiat currency. Uh you know real estate stocks whatever. I mean we don't really think of those things as safe havens but if that's what you're trying to do then it kind of works for you. Um, but if you're trying to maybe express an opinion that's more profound or maybe even a moral standpoint that you don't even you don't even want to be in the existing financial system, you don't want stocks or bonds, you don't want that kind of stuff, maybe gold and Bitcoin are both valid exit points from the existing financial system and and that's your safe haven. So, there's so many ways you could define it. Um, it sort of it sort of depends what you're looking to do. Uh, but I agree with Trey that in the short term, Bitcoin it to the extent that it is a safe haven, which is debatable, it's certainly not on the same par or same caliber as gold, right? Gold has that 5,000-year history. It has that stability. It has that gravity to it. So, it doesn't have as much volatility. And I think when we when we think of the phrase safe haven, we're looking to escape volatility and we're looking to escape downside risk. And gold does that for sure. Bitcoin does not do that yet, but maybe 30 years from now it does. So, yeah, I guess it it really depends how you define safe haven. That's kind of that's kind of the takeaway. >> And I'm I'm gonna interrupt you, Mario, to ask >> Allan to uh talk about a concept that we talked about prior, which is ultimately what is your ultimate goal for Bitcoin's price >> price target? Like where do I think it'll go? Well, you mentioned that it, you know, ultimately it may be replaced. >> Well, I I what I think what I said there or what I meant to say there is in, you know, let's call it 30 years, 40 years, 50 years, Bitcoin could act as a safe haven the same way that gold does today. You know, there there'll be time to it. Um, but in terms of like a price target, are you like are you asking me how high in terms of dollars I think each Bitcoin could get? No, I thought I thought what we were talking about is that hundreds of years from now or at some time in the future, you were relatively convinced that Bitcoin will run its course >> and something else will replace it. Yeah. >> Oh, yeah. I've definitely said that before for sure. Um, yeah. Like I I I feel pretty certain, maybe that's foolish, but I feel pretty certain that at some point Bitcoin will go to zero. I also feel fairly certain that I will not live to see it. I think it'll be, you know, more more than 100 years from now, which is a totally separate topic. But, um, I expect what will happen is quite frankly something similar to what happened to the Constitution of the United States, which is it worked really well when the people who wrote it were still alive and maybe a generation or two after that. And then people take things for granted. They no longer are fighting for the same liberties and the same values that their father and grandfather and so forth fought for and they get lazy and eventually sources of evil, you might say. Maybe that's too extreme of a word, but but people who would be selfish will find a way in to corrupt the governance system in their own self-interest. And I don't think the people who uh are in charge of defending certain values will actually do it forever. Right? At some point people will sort of let their guard down. Maybe it's a hundred years, maybe it's 200 years. Um and then ultimately I think the the best values of Bitcoin will crumble the same way it happened with the US Constitution unfortunately. >> So let me excuse me for interrupting again, but let me take this sort of more to the present because we have a good rhythm here. So the 21 million hard cap. So I've studied that. I'm not particularly technologically inclined. I have difficulty with Instagram and you know Mari's already always telling me how to turn my computer on. So but for someone like me, how do you know the 21 million hard cap won't be changed by the people dominating the system when we get there? >> Oh, it could be. Yeah, it could be. So, so right now the way Bitcoin works is it's decentralized and so anybody, you, me, we could sit down and write any kind of uh BIP, Bitcoin improvement proposal. So, we could say, "Hey, why don't we change the rules of the network so that it it has more than 21 million coins. And if people think that's a good idea, they'll download our software and start running it." Most people today, 99% would say, "That's a terrible idea. How dare you?" you know, you're you don't embody the Bitcoin spirit and so forth. A hundred years from now, if all the people running uh Bitcoin nodes and if all the people mining Bitcoin, if they're all corporations or if they're nation states because individuals have for, you know, kind of given up on it, they could absolutely collude and say, "Hey, three years from now, let's implement this software patch that creates more Bitcoin. It's all going to go to these corporations or nation states." They absolutely could do that. So there there is no guarantee that it won't happen. It's very possible and given enough time 100 years two 200 years whatever it is it becomes increasingly more likely that it happens eventually in my opinion >> and it echoes what you were saying about the constitution right how it in practice today it's just a distillation of what the founding fathers wrote kind of in the same way what Satoshi Nakamoto wrote if this happens >> with this topic in our >> in practice it will be very different potentially ahead >> but in our lifetime you're saying that the folks that make money mining the bitcoins won't want to make that money some other way like what happens to that part of the bitcoin block you know the whole system >> after all the bitcoins are mined so roughly in the year 2140 all the bitcoins will be mined and at that point miners will be compensated based on transaction fees alone and so there'll be just a uh normal supply demand market like there is for anything gallons of milk you know can of corn whatever just be supply and demand so if if people want block space in other words if they want to make transactions on the Bitcoin network they'll have to pay you know they'll be they'll have to bid up and pay a high enough fee that they get block space and that will go to the miners and if nobody wants to send a transaction it it becomes cheaper and miners will drop off the network so it'll it'll just you know there'll be a constant uh supply and demand looking for equilibrium >> okay well before we move to the next topic Big gentlemen, I just wanted to share a quick announcement. Wealth is co-hosting a Glover Silver conference in Toronto this October this October with SCP Resource Finance and uh Trey and I will be there by the way recording and conducting interviews. It's really going to be one of the premier precious metals events of the year featuring top experts like uh Eric Spratt, Maria Renova from Product Management will be there as well and you know industry insiders who will share powerful insights and high growth silver mining opportunities. You can attend in person by signing up to our credit investor list at wealth.comredit or also you can join virtually. uh please find the details in the description below and I'll also put the link here as a banner. So now and we've touched upon this before but let's get to the here and now really dive deep on it. You know again like we were talking gold just broke into new record highs. It's getting close to $3,800. Bitcoin has been consolidating above 100K. So what's driving each each's rally right now? Are the forces the same? Uh, trailer, let's start with you on your take on gold. You have a super interesting uh insightful take on this. >> As as I mentioned, I think uh in in the terms of investment motivation, I think they're pretty similar. I think the Bitcoin folks and the gold folks are concerned about the financial system, concerned about excessive debt, concerned about fiat currencies, and concerned that the modern era of unconventional central banking has exacerbated these imbalances to the point you shorten this all up. Once you start QE, you can never stop. So in the current dollar standard system uh Bernani made that choice 2009 I believe and that's why they call it the nuclear option. Once you start QE you can never really stop. You know I ask people all the time who are mainstream generalist investors by the way why does the Fed need a $9 trillion balance sheet? And you know, it's only people who are concerned about that who I think, you know, and again with Nvidia hitting new highs and $4 trillion market cap, you know, we're the ones, you know, who maybe are worried about the wrong things. But with the Fed's balance sheet at 9 trillion, I think what's driving Bitcoin and gold are concerns about, you know, the stability of the financial system and debasement. Would you agree, Alan? >> Yeah, definitely. And in the case of gold, I I think the primary buyers are central banks, right? So so government central bank units that are worried about fiat that they're worried about their own currencies all over the globe. Uh so you know, we saw we saw a huge spike in uh buying on comx once Trump was elected, right, like less than a year ago. So >> I think he's he's hip to it whereas maybe the Biden administration wasn't. Um but this is happening all over the globe. So, you know, Putin in Russia and Xi Jinping in China and so forth. So, central banks are buying up gold. They're probably buying even more than they say. We know that China is for sure. Uh, and you know, they're concerned about their ability to control people through their currency because if their currencies fail, you know, the jig is up. They lose all their power. So, I think that's primarily what's happening with gold. And we don't see so much buying from retail for gold, which is interesting. So, that's probably going to come, right? And as the price goes up, people start to pay more attention to it and then they then they buy in. Uh, same with silver. Um, and in the case of Bitcoin, I haven't been following it closely enough to know who the primary buyers are. Now, Bitcoin is very interesting. I' I've been in Bitcoin for 10 years, and when Bitcoin was a very small market, the only people who bothered to look at it were retail investors. Because when the market cap is a million dollars, 10 million, a billion, you know, no no institutional investor can even look at that because the the market is just too small. So, Bitcoin is a very curious case. It's fascinating that it's actually uh a lot of buying happens in the opposite order. First, it's the little retail investor, then it's the big retail investor, then it's the small institutions, then the large institutions, eventually nation states, and uh you know, the first nation states that buy. I mean, there's a handful of them, but they're all very tiny countries with really small GDPs, and they're they're sort of irrelevant on the global stage. And then it's only going to be later that the, you know, the United Stateses and the China and the Russas end up buying Bitcoin. Um, but I agree with Trey that it's all for that reason of fiat currencies are failing. And so, it's a question of, you know, do you buy gold or Bitcoin or how much of each based on the type of investor you are. So, yeah, it's it's it's a lot of the same reasons. It's just happening maybe in a different order for each asset. >> And as we've talked about before, Mario, the uh big spur, I think, to the central bank buying, central banks bought between, you know, 200 and 400 tons, >> Russia frozen assets, >> but the February 22 freezing >> of Russian foreign exchange reserves, I mean, >> it's very rare when you look at a chart and you go, that's what happened. But February 22, >> China's gold holdings, China's Treasury holdings. You can see it in >> gold central Russia central bank will buy. Yeah. All the central banks. >> Biden's decision there was almost like a Nixon level decision, you know, to freeze 300 billion of of foreign assets totally changed the world's view of the dollar standard system. I think >> by the way uh yesterday's interview with you and Grant Williams touches quite a lot upon this and it's very interesting so and also on your webinar that we did last week last Wednesday super interesting so folks uh should definitely uh go go watch it. So, um, how do you see institutional adoption playing out for each? What you were talking about, Alan, was super interesting, right? How Bitcoin has been from the retail, the small guy to the institution. Um, but in the future, is gold going to be something that the retail will get into? And for Bitcoin, is it going to become more like gold in the sense that it's both accepted by all institutions and retails? What do you guys think? >> I would say yes to both. Eventually, the retail investor is going to get into gold. No question. Um, yeah. So, I'm I'm hearing some some people in that I know personally saying, "What? 3,400, 3,700? I don't have that much lying around to buy an ounce of gold." Right? They're saying that to me. So, I'll buy silver instead or or I'll wait and save up. Um, so that's tricky, but they'll get in. Of course, they'll get in when when they see gold go parabolic. It's starting to they're going to get in because that's just how it works. Um, and in the case of Bitcoin, yes, nation states will adopt it. It's I think that's just the game theory. They're going to have to. Some of them may do it in secret for a few years. Some may do it publicly. I I think the creation of the strategic Bitcoin reserve in the United States is more of a political move than anything else, but I also think that using it and growing it is an inevitability regardless of of who's in office or or what's going on um geopolitically. It's I think it's just something you have to do eventually. You just have to be delicate with taxpayer funds. And it's the optics that are really the the question mark. Um and and the timeline. It's not like is it going to happen? Yes or no. It is going to happen. It's just how quickly, at what pace, how do you pay for it? How do you handle it politically? Are you worried about getting reelected? Do you somehow distract from it with some other issue? Th those are the things you have to think through and work through. But do you buy it as a nation? Yeah, you're going to have to. You're not going to have a choice. >> You think it's inevitable. Yes. >> Um, and this plays into a question I want to ask both of you. I love economic and financial history. One of the things that happened in the 1930s during the the Rosland administration, FDR, was the confiscation of gold, right? Is Bitcoin susceptible to this kind of encroachment by government? And is gold also still potentially a a threat to government so that a replay of the 1930s will happen? Uh what do you think about uh that for gold Trey? And then we can have your thoughts on Bitcoin. >> So the big difference between that executive order and today is the dollar was tied to gold. So uh FDR he really he wasn't trying to take people's gold. He was trying to save the dollar and he did it by taking people's gold because you know people were you know turning in their dollars for gold because it was uh you know transferable back then. So, this is again my opinion, but I don't I don't really think the government uh they've got bigger problems than gold. And it it wouldn't really accomplish anything to confiscate people's gold because it's not tied to the dollar anymore. Um uh I don't see how they could confiscate Bitcoin. All they can do, in my opinion, is raise taxes. And you know that's one of the big advantages of Bitcoin is at least in my life a lot of people who own Bitcoin have the money so far out of the financial system I you know I'm not sure everybody's paying their taxes on crypto trades. What do you think Alan? >> Yeah. Um I agree with you. you know, executive order 6102, like at that time, 1933, the who it applied to was like basically everybody. It's like the common man because, you know, gold and the dollar, they were they were equivalent. Today, if you look at who owns gold, it's not just it's not regular people. It's people who are suspicious of the government. Like, it's people who are like, you know, it just is same with Bitcoin. It's like people who don't trust the government. They don't trust the dollar. and and those are the types of people who own that asset. So I think the government quote unquote knows better. They know that even if they made a law like that, they the compliance rate would be like 1% of people would actually do something. Uh whereas historically, I'm sure it was much higher. I don't know the compliance rate, but I bet a lot of people actually, you know, turned in their gold. So I don't think it's it would happen today. I I really don't think it would happen. I think it's much more likely that the government goes after financial assets that are digital and within their arms reach. So >> bank accounts, brokerage accounts, retirement accounts, I think all of those types of accounts are susceptible. I think gold and Bitcoin are some of the safest assets, especially Bitcoin that you have in cold storage, not sitting on an exchange. And then of course physical gold in your possession, not like gold in an ETF because you know that's in a brokerage account. So I don't I don't see it happening uh for a lot of reasons and I don't think it would be effective. >> The only thing I've worried about Mario and it was more 101 15 years ago. I did >> go through a period where I thought the federal government might you know the taxation of >> gold is at the collectible rate. It's not eligible for long-term capital gain tax. And I I used to think I actually had a friend who sold a bunch of coins because he was worried the government was going to take the tax rate to 50 or 60% and so he wanted to start his holding period over again. Um but even that I don't know it just it seems like peanuts given that's the other problem when you get into the trillion category which is what everything is these days. you know, we're go the amount of gold that you could and and the other thing to keep in mind is Americans like if you go around the globe, we hold much less gold than a lot of other countries. You know, we're sort of 5% of global consumption of gold each year. It's tiny. You know, Americans remember cash for gold. Like when gold goes up, people sell it. And you know, it's it's not a big I don't think it's a big asset here. I don't think it would be, you know, accomplished that much if the government tried, you know, to get involved. >> Is there any outlook for you guys who think that either the US or foreign governments will back their currencies with gold or maybe use crypto or Bitcoin as a method of exchange like El Salvador did? Well, Salvador still has uses the US dollar, but it allows exchange. It allows Bitcoin as money to use inside the economy. What do you what do you guys think? Could we see those days again? >> Well, on the gold side, obviously, central banks are sort of already doing that and buying a thousand tons a year the last three years. And you know, European central banks have a higher percentage of their reserves in gold. US doesn't because we're the reserve currency. But, you know, the go gold's already a pretty established central bank asset. And I think from their point of view, the thing that I think, you know, is almost evolving and is likely over the next decade is some sort of cover clause where central banks back 10, 15, 20% of their balance sheet with their gold reserves. The reason why I think that's possible is you could kind of get there from where we are today without a big dislocation in the gold market, >> right? because central banks already are such a big chunk of it. >> They've already got a pile of it. And >> you know, everybody talks about if we revalued, you know, the gold that we have theoretically in Fort Knox Treasury on the Fed's balance sheet to current prices, you know, it would it would uh, you know, raise a trillion dollars to make Treasury issuance that much less for a year. Not that I think there, you know, so it's there's a lot of gold around and in that sense, I do think it will play a role. What about Bitcoin? >> Yeah. Uh well, let me just say on gold quickly. I agree that it's possible and I I do think it's likely that the the next monetary system is backed by gold and not Bitcoin. That that's what I think globally. Um there's been So, first of all, you could look at the current administration in the US between Trump and Bessant um Secretary of State. They've both said that they like gold. They're gold bugs. There's something nice about having the dollar backed by gold. And uh Scott Patent basically said that he thinks there's a new Bretton Woods moment happening and he thinks it's in the next four years meaning in the Trump administration and he wants to be a part of it. So I absolutely think that's happening. I think it's likely. It's also a very Trump thing to do because of his ego. He loves, you know, putting his name on things like, you know, the Space Force and the strategic Bitcoin reserve and all these things. You know, he wants his name on it. So I think he wants to be the guy to do the next monetary system. I don't think he wants the next president to to do it or get credit for it. Um, so I think that's going to happen. Also, there was a very interesting article I saw on Zero Hedge a year or two years ago. Um, and it was basically about many countries, mostly in Europe, that were shifting the amount of gold reserves that they had so that they matched up with their peers in terms of a percentage of gold relative to their GDP. And some countries that had a lot of gold relative to GDP were kind of selling and countries that had very little gold relative to GDP were buying and they were sort of evening out um over a period of many years. And this was absolutely fascinating when I saw it and I thought, wow, there's there's probably a lot of discussions going on behind the scenes to get ready for this globally because pretty much every country is experiencing the same thing. They're inflating the value of their currency to nothing. Their citizens are being concerned. they're losing potentially losing control of their population. Um, and so it would make a lot of sense for countries to get together and negotiate a new monetary system based on gold. Um, and that's that's certainly more palatable to people globally than saying, "Hey, we're using Bitcoin." That just no. If you say if you >> swallow Yeah. If you said in 2025 or 2026, hey, we're back we're creating a global monetary system based on Bitcoin, you'd have revolts. People would revolt because they don't understand it. It's too weird. They No, they're not having any of it. If you back it by gold, I think people, you know, business could continue as usual. People would go on living their lives. So, that is what I think is going to happen. And I don't think I don't think Bitcoin will be part of the next official monetary system, but I do think it will continue to grow and acrue value in the background and then ultimately some number of years later. Maybe there will be a switch from gold to Bitcoin or something, but that's it's very hard to forecast that so far down the road. >> And it's interesting you mentioned that because that was exactly El Salvador's experience with Boulli putting Bitcoin as a method of exchange. People really don't use it. And obviously, Boulli has been very successful at investing in Bitcoin, putting El Salvador's reserves into Bitcoin because it's gone up so much. So, I want to talk a little bit about portfolio strategy for both Bitcoin and gold. And Alan, you own both. Trey, you long champion gold, but you're not against Bitcoin. I know that. Um, but I wanted to ask you guys, are gold and Bitcoin compliments or competitors in a portfolio? If let's say I had I wanted to all allocate 10% of my portfolio to gold and Bitcoin, how would you invest in this mix? What do you think, Trey? >> Well, I should also give you the footnote that having done gold for 25 years, the biggest mistake I've ever made in my career is not being more involved in Bitcoin. And a lot of the folks in the gold community were on it early 15 >> true >> years ago and a couple of them have made more money in the last two or three years than I have in my life. So it's it's been a terrible terrible decision on my part. Um, but I'm definitely in the group of people that, you know, when I look at Bitcoin now at 113 grand, it's it's like when Alan was saying earlier with gold at 3,800, it's hard to wrap your mind around the one coin being worth 3,800. And I'm yeah, >> clearly in that uh, you know, if I bought Bitcoin, it would definitely go down. Like, you know, there's that psychological, >> you know, concern here. Um, so when I look at a portfolio, I you know, and again, this is just me. I think Bitcoin has been the best speculation of my lifetime. It's, you know, and it has, it's just the numbers. They're nothing. >> Yeah. >> Gold since 2000 has sort of done what we expected. It's out, it's gone from 250 to 3,800. So, everybody knows that if you go back to March of 2000, you know, the S&P is still down 68% in gold terms. But you know that's picking your beginning point and your ending point measurement and all of that. >> But the point is that over that time frame gold has done sort of exactly you know what we hoped we would do it would do and has done. But Bitcoin's been you know you can't compare it. There's nothing that compares to what Bitcoin has done. It's been the best speculation of our lifetime. >> Right. Is there a bit of a gener generational divide here? Right. Because >> does Bitcoin buyers and connoissurs like Allan >> these younger? >> Are you saying I look old? I've actually read recently that gold is becoming more popular with sort of millennial type people um because there's this backlash to the digital age and you know um the internet >> and generation set and a back backlash >> against big government as well. I think it's actually getting a little cool to have some gold again, but there's no question that, you know, the digital component of it, >> you look as young as a millennial with gold coin, >> you know, me and Jamie Diamond, we sort of still don't get it. But um but there's no you know no question that it that you know as as a speculation I think everybody and the other thing I've told gold executives over and over you know gold executives used to get up and give presentations and badmouth Bitcoin >> and I would tell them each one by one I go that's not a good look you don't you know you don't want to denigrate Bitcoin you it's not something that makes you look smart you know what I mean it's it's You know, it's clearly a phenomenon like, you know, we've never seen. There's something to it. It's 2.2 trillion. It's all happened right in front of our faces. So, but how do you see it in a portfolio, Alan? >> Well, for me, it's the bulk of my portfolio. >> Okay. >> That's because it's gone up so much. >> That's funny, right? Like there's a there's a joke like if you if you're afraid of putting, you know, 10% of Bitcoin in your portfolio, just put in 1% and wait a few years, right? it'll be 10%. >> So, um, yeah. Well, when the first time the first time I bought gold and Bitcoin, it was in the same month. It was July of 2015, and, uh, gold was about 1,200. So, I had to save up 1,200 to buy gold. And then I only put $1,000 into Bitcoin because you could basically pick any denomination. And, you know, that was my portfolio. And whatever, it grows over time. Fine. Um, but five months later, I sold the Bitcoin because I made a 50% return. 50%. My 1,000 turned into,500. And I I go 50% in a year. The stock market only does seven. So, I sold my bitcoins thinking I was the greatest trader ever. And like I should have held those bitcoins obviously, right? You know, should have held it the whole time. But um so at that stage of my awareness of what Bitcoin is, it fit into my portfolio very differently than it fits in today. Today I re I my perspective is that it's a store of wealth just like gold. And I look at gold as a hedge against Bitcoin. If my Bitcoin fails, that's what all my gold is for, >> right? I I like I have physical gold in case something weird happens with Bitcoin that maybe I wasn't anticipating or I got it wrong. I've got the gold to fall back on. I don't own any stocks or bonds. I don't want that stuff in brokerage accounts. I don't want the government to be able to touch it aside from the fact that everything's overvalued anyways and you know the fundamentals don't make sense of a lot of those investments and so forth um relative to these others. So where bitcoin fits into my portfolio is as an escape not just from the dollar but from the entire financial system and the entire current system of governance. We have had a hundred years call it of horrible leadership all over the world. Maybe you can pinpoint an exception but I think we are coming to the end of a leadership crisis that is a product of a monetary system crisis. really ever since the Federal Reserve 1913. When you have that kind of system in place, you really it's almost impossible to have a good leader. It's almost impossible because if you do all the right things, you get punished and you get crippled by anyone who cheats. All the cheaters get rewarded. And so, you just simply can't have good leadership. So, the way I look at Bitcoin and gold is a way of starting over. It's just exiting the current system. It's starting over with values that I believe in. They're I think they're both honest money. they have to be worked into existence instead of promised into existence like the dollar. Um, but I also recognize that for the average person watching, if you don't have that same conviction that I have about Bitcoin or gold, they're going to serve a completely different function in your portfolio. Maybe you only put 1% into Bitcoin, 10% into gold, and the rest is stocks and bonds until you do a lot more research. So, it really depends where you're coming from. It depends on your worldview. It does depend on your age because if you're already retired, you probably don't need any Bitcoin. Like probably I would say gold makes way more sense for you. Um because there's just no point in taking the risk. Um but if you're >> Yeah. You don't want that volatility in your portfolio if you're >> Yeah. >> the older segment of the population. >> Yeah. And if you're younger and you don't want volatility, just buy 1% Bitcoin and you won't even notice it on a portfolio basis. You you literally won't even notice. Um, so it really depends where you're coming from, what your objectives are. But the one takeaway that I would say to everyone is keep learning. Just keep learning. Ask questions. Just keep learning about all these different assets and you'll figure out what to do. >> Yeah. And don't feel bad for as a traditional, very traditional value investor. I also missed the boat on Bitcoin. >> I don't know. I think the first time I heard about it was back in 2011, 2012. Uh, and >> it's funny, a friend of mine told me that >> definitely painful >> when you have something like Bitcoin, the biggest risk is having zero. So, this is a great example of, you know, you know what you know, so you have that, but if you know thing, if there's things you don't know about, zero is a very dangerous allocation because you don't know. >> It's as dangerous as 100%. That's so wise. Yeah. >> Yeah. But you gota you should have market weight something in the middle if you don't if something like Bitcoin is coming along and that was my mistake. >> Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. So a really important message I want to share with viewers. If you're thinking about owning gold after this conversation wealth sister company Hard Assets Alliance make it makes it really easy to buy and store physical precious metals safely and conveniently. Just uh go to hardassalliance.com. Again everybody, that's hardassallalliance.com. All right, Jeff, we're running out of time. Can't believe it's been almost an hour of chatting about gold versus Bitcoin or Bitcoin versus gold. Just really quickly, two sentences. Trey, what's your outlook for gold in the next 5 10 years? Same for you, Alan, and for Bitcoin as well. >> So, you know, obviously predicting the gold price, you know, is a bad idea. But I I will I will let me put it this way. I'm surprised how quickly gold is going up these days. And uh you know after last year's 27% move uh what I I don't even know what we're up this year 45% at 3,800. It's it's certainly been a much faster than I think old pros in the gold category would have expected. But what it means to me is that these three long-term fundamentals that the gold trade is built on, which are anti-dollar sentiment, uh declining Fed credibility, and the US budget deficit. Those three things, anti-doll, budget deficit, Fed cred. We've been talking about them for decades. They're not new. They're not revolutionary. Uh gold bugs have been talking about them for decades, but I think they're all hitting inflection points. uh which we've been waiting for and as gold people we're trained to sort of look over your shoulder what can go wrong but I really do think we've hit that point. So I think now looking forward numbers that have always sort of scared me like 4,000 and 5,000 to be associated with I think are very likely. Uh so I think gold's going higher. um you know something like 5,000 in the next 12 months seems entirely possible on a percentage basis. It's not even it's not even as you know not that much of a percentage move, >> but I'll leave the Bitcoin targets to Allen. >> Yeah, I I agree with everything you just said, Trey. Uh and a lot of it applies to Bitcoin, too. Uh it's a lot of people just trying to exit the dollar um and express a bearish bet on the dollar. That that's really what it is. And it's saying like look, I can't store my wealth in the dollar. I need something else. >> And so gold and bitcoin, I think, are both valid targets in in that respect. And so where do they go measured in fiat? I mean, it's it's the inverse of where does fiat go. So fiat's going to go to zero. So one divided by zero, well undefined. So, so you know, so if we wanted to pick a time frame, you know, 6 months, 12 months, whatever, you know, these things are going to keep growing 30, 40, 50% a year, I think, the next few years. So, you know, it it doesn't matter. Like, I don't I don't think in terms of short-term prices anymore. My trading days are over. I'm a long-term hodler now for for both assets. So, I'm not I'm not worried about the price. And when I get a pullback, I get excited because I get to buy more. And I know that in the long term, these things are going to be much more valuable than they're than they are today. And they're going to be much more valuable than dollars. So everything's going up. >> Very well said. >> Excellent. Yeah. Excellent way of finishing this conversation. Very well said, Ally indeed. So gentlemen, thank you very much for joining me. It was a fascinating discussion. for our viewers. Really quickly, if you'd like to dig deeper into gold, don't forget to download our free gold report at wealth.com/gold. And if you enjoy this conversation, please hit the like button, subscribe to our channel, and share your thoughts in the comments. Please, it'd be interesting if you let us know, are you team gold? Are you team Bitcoin? Or do you like both? So, thank you all for watching, and we'll see you next time. If you have any questions about how to navigate the current environment, Wealthon can help connect you with a vetted advisor to get a free portfolio review. Just click the link in the description below or head to wealthon.com/free. There's no obligation and it will just take a few minutes of your time. Again, that's wealth.comfree. Thanks so much for joining us. We'll see you again next time. 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