Gold Will Fall First, Then ‘Fly Sky High,’ Bert Dohmen Says
Summary
Private Credit: Extensive warning on illiquidity, embedded leverage, fund-level borrowing, and rising redemption gates signaling a potential systemic trigger.
Precious Metals: Bullish stance on gold and silver (including miners) as longer-term inflation hedges, acknowledging possible short-term dips during liquidity shocks.
AI: Viewed as the current “glamour” driver of big tech with elevated valuations, potentially setting up for a severe drawdown similar to past manias.
Energy Shortage: Forecast of significant oil supply tightness and knock-on effects (fertilizer, helium) contributing to inflation and macro stress.
Market Outlook: Calls this one of the most dangerous periods in decades, citing record margin loans, speculative excess, and distribution by smart money.
Opportunities: Preference for undervalued sectors with single-digit P/Es and gold/silver-related equities over highly valued tech names.
Risks: Repackaging of fund finance into ABS echoes 2008 dynamics; liquidity contraction and potential bailout-driven inflation are core concerns.
Companies Mentioned: Palantir (PLTR) cited as a high-valuation example; Walmart (WMT) and Intel (INTC) noted issuing debt; Goldman Sachs (GS) referenced in historical context.
Transcript
As stock price updates every single second, a private credit loan gets marked by a model. And that difference might be exactly where the next financial crisis begins. Welcome back. I'm Jeremy Saffron, and right now, the S&P 500 is pushing record highs, powered, of course, as we've mentioned before, by big tech. But look under the hood for a moment. We got Brent crude back above $107 a barrel. Private credit funds are suddenly facing $15 billion in redemption requests. Feels like that number keeps going up and yield chasing investors are discovering the exit door is is much much narrower than they thought. So is the stock market seeing the strength like we see today or is it missing the hidden losses inside the private market system? Last November, Bert Domen warned us that 2026 would be the year that the system gets tested. Let's put that test to the thesis. We're going to we're going to put that warning to the test rather. Bert Domen, founder of Domenolman Capital Research, joining me now. Welcome back to the program, Burke. Good to see you. >> Yeah, good to see you as always, Jeremy. >> Yeah. >> Uh, you know, I I was watching our last time really the viewers were very curious as to what we meant about 2026. Here we are, you know, end of April. I don't want to just repeat the same warning today. I want to test that mechanism because you warned us about this year and it would be kind of the danger zone. I mean, uh, we're looking at recent reports just this morning. Private credit funds are facing heavy redemption pressure. Uh, you talked about those cracks. Is this is this the crack you were kind of looking for back then or is it this still early warning noise? >> No, this is it. I think it's going to be the big one. It's very reminiscent of other crashes crashes. The most recent one we had was 2008. We um gave a sell signal I think was two days from the top in the Dow Jones in October of 2007 and then the market deterioration started. But Wall Street is always very good at hiding uh these uh tops which are created when the big u the big smart money start selling this. This is called distribution. It's um the process where the big money friends of Wall Street and so on sell their huge uh positions in the stock market while at the same time there their shields go on TV. Oh, everything is wonderful and there's no problem inside. look at this and this and they give some examples uh why there are no warnings yet and that is uh that takes a long time this time because we think it is probably one of the uh most dangerous times that we've seen in many decades. the the distribution process has taken now since about mid year last year and so it takes a long time for all these big owners of stocks to get rid of their stocks and they sell to the public the public you know Joe Granville used to call them the bag holders somebody has to own the stocks on the way into the basement you know and Wall Street doesn't want to own those stocks stocks as they go down and raise 50 to 90% of their value. And that is possibly what we're going to have. And given today's drastic overvaluations, which are more overvalued than 1929, you know, uh it's going to be a humdinger. We are seeing stocks all the time like Palanteer, etc. being recommended by Wall Street. But people never look at valuations. The as a PE until recently had P of 388 388 PE. It takes you if you would get all the earnings of the company you owned the whole company. It would take you 388 years to get your money back. You're not going to live that long. I don't think so. Um the the problem is we we're right now at the time of drastic overvaluation of stocks. Yes, there are stocks that they report good earnings gains over expectations but people never ask who gives these estimates. Well, Wall Street gives these estimates you so they make the estimates of earnings gains uh low so that they can be beaten. So then the news and oh every so so many% of the stocks um reported better earnings. Uh this week is going to be a big um week for earnings. I think one of the biggest in several decades. So be careful. Uh don't don't look at just earnings. Look at what they are in relation to the price of the stock. stocks have now the highest overvaluation in history. >> You know to to we were talking a little bit about this Moody's report too. I mean it's this they have this new warning here because this is bigger than just investors trying to redeem from private credit funds. Uh Moody says you know that the fund finance market has grown past $1 trillion. I mean in plain English that means private credit and private equity funds are borrowing money at the fund level to manage liquidity and kind of bridge delayed exits and and keep things moving when cash is not coming back fast enough. So now you you may have illquid loans inside the fund. Investors are asking for the money back and the fund itself obviously using more borrowing to manage that gap. I mean, that sounds like leverage layered on top of illquidity. Is that the real danger that private credit is is not just hard to sell, but increasingly financed with debt that can amplify losses when when the cycle turns? See, Jeremy, you got it right there. We are seeing the perfect storm. We are seeing all the different elements necessary for remarkable downturn in the stock market. We are seeing massive borrowing via margin loans. This is a new record high margin loans. Okay. Then at the same time we see uh all these other extremes. We see spaxs. We see all the other garbage that they're selling to the public and uh so we're seeing massive illquidity now in the markets. developed the theory of liquidity that what determines the major trends of the stock market. It's not earnings. Earnings are irrelevant at the turning point. You know, they're they're good on the way up, but at the turning point, they don't give you good timing signals. So, um we are seeing now massive margin loans, new record highs. We're seeing ill liquidity in the private uh credit market and we warned about the private credit market for the last year. We said they are totally illquid. We give an example Harvard has a endowment fund billions of dollars in the endowments but it's all invested in private credit or most of it and so they needed a couple of billion dollars to pay operating expenses. They didn't sell any of the private credit because it was unsalable. So they had to go and borrow a few billion dollars to pay operating expenses. So these are all the warnings that we look for. You know the private credit is is going to be the leader into the abyss and that's what we have been saying for the last year and now it turns out all these private credit funds are stopping redemptions. You can't even get your money out. >> Yeah. Yeah, I mean you watch Jamie Diamond, he says that he's not worried, you know, and and again, we look at this Moody's report borrowing against their own assets just to manage liquidity and cover those redemptions. I mean, if these funds are taking out loans just to survive delayed exits, isn't that embedded leverage, you know, the kind of that exact trigger that turns ili liquidity into insolveny? >> That's exactly right. Yes. You know, and at this point, you never want to listen to the top guys that are connected with Wall Street like the banking system and so on because that is u that is where you get the false news. And you know, Colonel Douglas McGregor was on and he gave a good quote from Andrew Melon, you know, and about a 100 years ago, he was the leading and the richest banker and so on and he said in May of 1929, we live in the period of unbroken prosperity. Everything is fine. Okay. Well, of course, it wasn't. At the same time that he said that, he was selling all of his stocks. Okay. But he was telling the public is oh it's all wonderful. >> I mean we're also seeing kind of the these reports that that banks are packaging these funds finance loans into assetbacked securities to to move the risk off their balance sheets and the Fed is now actively investigating bank exposure. Um you know we were chatting before before coming to air and you said you've seen and you called for 2008 and you saw some things that seem a lot different this time. I mean, are we watching a repeat of 2008 where this debt gets repackaged until nobody knows who's exactly holding the bag, as you call it, or or what's different? >> They're doing the same thing that they did in 2008. Do you remember the CDOS and the CDLs? They even had synthetic funds that they sold. They was an an image of what real funds with real assets had. and so on said, "Okay, we'll pretend that they actually have at the same assets and here's how you can buy a participation in that." So you're buying participations in nothing and figments of the imagination. Wall Street is so wonderful at creating all of this false stuff, especially near top. So you I hate to talk like that but we have no dependency on on Wall Street and we are not bolden to anyone there. So we can say it the way it is. And a lot of people that that are Wall Street employees, they are not at liberty to say what they really think. But I am I've always this is my company I started about half a century ago and you know when I formed that the theory of liquidity and credit I said that's the only thing you want to look at is the liquidity increasing or decreasing and is credit increasing or decreasing and that is the only thing that determines the major trend of the stock market not the short term it doesn't tell you what the market's going to do next week but it it is the long-term trend and the smart investors like uh Warren Buffett and so on, they go and look at the long-term trends. I remember Warren Buffett, I was in graduate school at the at the time and there was an article in the local investment magazine about a guy in Omaha, Nebraska who started a hedge fund that was doing so well and that was Warren Buffett. Nobody had ever heard of him and he only had some friends and family in his fund, you know. So that was an interesting time. I he was in Omaha and I was in Minneapolis. So yeah, so when you your experience is so important because if you've been in the markets for a long time, you've seen it before different versions except this time I I can multiply that many times over five times or 10 times over 10 times the leverage 10 times the amount of speculation is I mean when you when you think of the speculation in ETFs now they've got ETFs for single stocks You know, then they've got these options that expire in one day. You you buy that, they start trading in the morning, they stop trading at night. They just go out of existence. I mean, there all these games. They've kept a prediction market, you know. So, you can make money without ever looking at the valuation of a stock or the stock market. You just go by, well, I think uh the Trump is going to say this and this and I'm going to buy or I'm going to sell based on that. So we are seeing speculation at the maximum and that can only end the battery. >> You know this is interesting. I mean because you could say I mean Warren Buffett he's been sitting on a huge cash pile basically waiting for better prices. I mean I watched his latest interview. He was saying he thinks that there's still more to come. Is is that the the right mindset here? hold liquidity and wait for the for selling rather than, you know, chase gold, chase silver, chase distress credit after a big move. Yes. You know, for that he's a long-term investor and for him that that is perfect. He can be a couple of years early in raising cash and so on. Uh because he says, "I'm not a timer." But that is not important. What's important is to have cash when nobody else has it. And during the 2008 crisis, he had the cash and nobody else had it. And Goldman Sachs had to go to Warren Buffett to get a multibillion dollar loan, you know. And Warren Buffett could name his own terms. I think he asked for warrants to buy the stock anytime later date and so on. But he was the only one that had money. The banks didn't have any money to lend out, you know. But Warren Buffett did. And so the next bottom he's going to be buying uh uh everything inside. He's going to see bars. I I predict that many of the grammar stocks of today they're going to be down 50% 80% 90%. And you know that's that's based on history. Okay? This is not just an extreme valuation based on history. This is what happens to the high-f flyers uh during big bare markets. And if this is going to be bigger than the past ones, you can bet it's going to be there. Uh you know, I have one rule in the bare market. You don't want to start bargain hunting until the big popular stocks are have price earnings ratios in the single digits. That's below 10. Right now, many of these stocks have PE ratio 100 to one, 200, 300 to one. Well, they have to get back to valuation. That doesn't mean the company is bad or they're going to go bankrupt. No, it's just that they're overvalued right now. Like somebody trying to sell you a Yugo for half a million dollars. Would you buy it? No. But you might like it if it were reasonable price at 20,000. You know, >> that's it's a matter of valuation. >> You know, right now we see this weird kind of interesting divergence. uh you're you're describing severe stress in private credit. Um and what you're seeing these reports I mean public credits telling almost a different story. It was today alone according to Bloomberg companies like Walmart and Intel they swarm the primary market to lock in debt with investment grade spreads actually tightening. How do you square those two things? Is the public market just kind of lagging behind or are we looking at two completely different credit realities? Well, we're talking about reality and um and then what Wall Street wants you to think, you know. So, they're two different things. Uh at the top when they're still distributing stocks as we are, we do a lot of technical analysis. We call it advanced technical analysis because there we pick up the signs that the the big smart money is exiting the market. And we have been seeing that now for the last oh at least uh nine months or so. So started actually in June of last year. And uh so this showed us that the big money is exiting. The big smart money. And when the big smart money is exiting uh we don't want to be buying. We don't want our clients to be buying. We don't manage money. Okay? because everybody has a different psychological makeup and uh you know most people want to buy at the top and they want to sell at the bottom and that's a very difficult way to make money and uh so we we don't like to do the handholding and we just look at the markets. We look at the markets instead of the investor and uh the markets and when they tell us caution don't buy then we don't buy you know it's that simple. Now last year of course we made that we had that April plunge uh and um then everybody started buying uh the highf flyers again and um so we did not at that time suggest getting into all of the stock the stuff that had plunged. So some people might say that we missed opportunities and a big rally that was manipulated afterwards, you know, but we got into what we consider less risky investment with a higher potential and that was gold and silver related investments, you know. So uh some of the stocks that we bought into like the silver miners, they were up about 140% in less than a year. 140%. that certainly beat the S&P and we at a much lower risk. So that's the way you want to invest. >> Yeah. Yeah. I was going to ask you, I mean, you know, when when you say Wall Street's trying to hand retail the bag, um I think people get that at home. I mean, what's the what's the product this time? I mean, you were talking about glamour stocks today maybe falling that 50 80%. AI is holding up the public market through big tech, but according to industry estimates, I mean, legacy software businesses make up a significant portion of private credit portfolios. Is is AI both the the boom and the trigger? Yes, that's so well said. It actually is. You know, all these glamour indust is is I've called it magic in the past. It's amazing what AI is the greatest thing since the industrial revolution. But we had other glamour sectors before 1920s for example anything related to flight airplanes airlines etc. the stock shot up. Okay. So uh it was basically straight line up and then came the crash and then from 1929 to 1932 airline sector went down 87%. Okay people were still flying there was they love flying they loved being passengers going someplace very fast etc etc. So, the industry did well, but the stocks declined 87%. That's so important for people to realize, >> you know, for for the average investor watching back home, Bert, I mean, how how does an average viewer kind of recognize when Wall Street is distributing risk to them instead of offering opportunity? >> Uh, the best way is by subscribing to our Wellington letter and our trading services. uh because we do all the work for you. We do all all the stuff that we've learned over the last well I've been training the markets for more than 50 years but uh this is knowledge experience the the technical analysis advanced technical analysis we know how to interpret the signals that we get with volume so many uh analysts only look at indicators that are related to price. No, you have to look at the volume as well. The volume is the biggest factor uh in the technical analysis and so often forgotten by by the younger inexperienced analysts that have only been doing it for the last 20 years. So, uh this is the important thing. You have to know where to look and there is a time to be fully invested. There's a time to be very cautious and the stuff that uh Wall Street wants you to get into like private credit. You don't want that because it's totally illquid. You don't want anything the way that you invest in the fund and then you want to cash out of the fund and they say, "Oh, sorry. We're not taking any withdrawals right now. Uh call us back in a year or so." That is not that liquidity. Okay. So our simple law is the theory of liquidity and credit. When liquidity and credit are expanding, you want to be investing. When they're contracting as they are now, you want to not invest. You want to be out of these type of stocks. Anything that's that's highly valued that there are sectors that are undervalued that are where the stocks sell at singledigit pees. they exist and um you can find them. So that's where you want to be. >> Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to get you to maybe name one of them. But before that too, I mean gold in in this environment has acted like protection. I mean we've seen that run up. But but in a real liquidity squeeze investors sell what they can, not what they want to. Does does you know gold get hit first before it goes higher here? >> Yes. You know, you got again, you got it exactly right. There will be shortterm uh declines there. Short-term meaning, you know, not 10 a 10 year decline, but uh uh in in gold and silver as people run for the exits everywhere. Okay? And uh so they sell what they can and uh if you can't sell individual stocks that you want to get rid of then you have to sell stuff that you can sell where there is a bidder and that would would also be the precious metals. So the precious metals will have a decline but always bottoms out much earlier than the general stock market. And as soon as the big investors uh decide they want to get in again, they will buy it. And then you see gold and silver, they're going to fly sky high. But first, you're going to have that decline and that's going to discourage a lot of people. And so that's why you have to make up your mind right now and write it down what your decision is that you will not sell for the next five years. Okay? That is so important because people that they think they're long-term investors suddenly they become when there's a market decline they become short-term investor and they become traders they say oh no I want to trade this market and uh that that is wrong you know Jesse Livermore he was the greatest trader in 1920s made lots of money short-term trading on the floor of the exchange okay but he said in 1935 after the crash and so on he said the Big money is made by sitting, not by trading. That's that's a very important statement from someone who made millions of dollars of short-term trading. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And bring it back to gold and silver maybe for this year. I mean, you've you've argued the precious metals are are the safer place to be, but both have already had nice moves over the past year. I mean, from here, do you see more upside in 2026? And and which one you know has the better risk reward here. Is it gold? Is it silver? Is it the miners? >> Well, you have to define your time horizon. >> Right. >> Right. People always forget that. I used to speak a lot at conference and people would ask me, "Well, where do you think gold is going?" or or somebody I remember one time said in the in the restroom he said oh well yesterday on the panel you were bullish on gold but you were wrong because today it's down you know yeah so he's got a one day time horizon that's not the way to look at the markets you you have to define your time horizon before you go into and if you have trouble staying with your decision write it down every everybody Everybody in the market should have a I have a spiral bond notebook and the trades are in there. What what you decide to do and so on. So you have to keep a daily diary of the market. Put in there what is important? What happened to it that was important? How did the market react to it? What you find is a good investment? What you find is a bad investment. Yeah. Don't rely on your memory. Yeah, these these were spiral. I've got a whole stack of these spiralbound notebooks, one for each year. So, uh that part is getting big. But it's really important because you can go back in time and say, "Oh gosh, I want to remember October 2007 for example, when we gave the sal stock market and it was the top I think of the Dow Jones. So you you want to if you decide to invest, you want to treat like a business. I did something as an experiment some years ago. I would ask people, you know, you meet at cocktail parties and so on and they'd ask me about the markets. I said, "Do you know what is in your IRA?" And he said, "No, no, I'm somebody." I said, "Well, do you have bonds or do you have stocks?" They didn't. Most of the people didn't even know that stock related or bond related investments. They had no idea where their savings for their retirement were um were placed. So, this is not how you want to invest. You want to know exactly what you want. And and you know, that's so important. You can't just take the attitudes uh you know uh God will take care of it. >> I mean a lot of people do. We see that all the time. I mean it's a key point. Most people know that their maybe they know their IRA balance but they don't actually know what they own inside. So I mean what should um viewers kind of check tonight? You know we're looking at this program. They're watching the interview. I mean tonight should they check their stock exposure? Should they check bond duration, private credit exposure, leverage ETFs? >> All of those. All of those. and really see where your exposure is in an illlquid market environment. That is a very important thing and uh then act accordingly. There are going to be assets because you have to um really see where what is going to benefit what the Federal Reserve will doing. So Mr. Trump is going to have his guy as head of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Morris. He he's was good before. He had all many of the right ideas um about the Federal Reserve, but is he going to be his own man when he gets in that position or not? You know, that's important. Now, one thing I like about Trump in in the case of monetary policies, he really would like to have lower interest rates. And you know there's a common fiction in the economic world uh and that is that to fight inflation you have to raise interest rates and that is exactly the wrong prescription. You don't raise interest rates by itself in order to fight inflation because higher interest rates are cost of doing business. when the cost of business rises and then you have to raise prices in order to pay for the higher interest rate. So higher interest rates traditionally when they're not a function of tight money then you want to expect inflation. I started my business in 1977. 1978 a new Federal Reserve chairman. He was formerly the president of the Textron and he became Fed chairman. He said, "I'm not going to fight inflation with tight money. We're going to do with with interest rates." And I said, "Oh, we this is a prescription for inflation full speed ahead." So we want to buy all the inflation hedges, gold, silver, all the mining stocks and we don't recommend at that time call options in the mining stocks. We we don't we don't recommend options anymore because most people overdo it. They we say no don't put more than 3% in any one option. That was always what we said and uh then we would find people had maybe half of their portfolio in one one call option. So that's not the way to address. But uh the thing is, you know, with uh where to put your money, the the Federal Reserve is going to react by putting money into the system. They're going to have to bail out. It's going to be the big bailout happening. And that means artificial money creation. Artificial money creation means reduced purchasing power of the money that you have. So instead of a loaf of bread selling God, I couldn't believe that recently uh for $9 for a loaf of bread uh and it's really unhealthy stuff at the same time. Uh so you're going to see a loaf of bread for $50 or $100 and people are going to pay it if they want to eat bread. You know, there's a people have to read about the German hyperinflation in the 19 early 1920s. There was a German entrepreneur. He was very smart. Yugo Stinis, Si Nes. There's a book about him. You have to read it. And he ended up owning several thousand companies that he bought uh during that time with borrow money. he would borrow the money and buy these companies and um the the prices went up because these were all companies in the consumer sector that were selling or making things that people really needed. So he became immensely wealthy. Yugo standers read a book about the experience that during money so fast the the government didn't have enough printing presses. So they confiscated the larger uh private printing presses at that time in order to print money faster and uh because you know thousand mark uh note uh suddenly became a$10 billion uh note and so then that they couldn't print money fast enough with the new printing presses that they uh expropriated And then they u uh they use rubber stamps. So suddenly a million mark note became uh a billion mark note you know which was millard in German. And uh so uh this is what what happens. And uh they had a responsible uh uh people at one time and the government but Germany was forced to pay reparations to the allies for damage of World War I. And of course there wasn't enough money around so they had to create. Now if everything starts falling apart uh what what is Wall Street going to do? What is what is the Federal Reserve going to do? they're going to have a choice. Uh let everything uh go bankrupt or print a lot of money to save everybody. Well, of course, it's going to be the latter because the long-term side effects, which is very high inflation, is probably not going to have to be handled by the people who created the mess. say that's politicians are only in there for a short period of time, long enough to steal our money and then they go back and enjoy and enjoy the the Bahamas on the beach. So, you know, you always have to think what's going to happen and how you going to react to it. Right now, I see the big problem in the world is energy oil. There's going to be huge shortage of oil. There's already a huge shortage of fertilizer which is made from oil. Helium. Who would have thought that helium gas uh would be scarce? But they need helium to make semiconductors without with the closure of the street for moose. Helium is not coming onto the market. The fertilizer is not coming onto the market. So you're going to have worldwide famines. This is a forecast. I mean 2020 a forecast for the decade that we always traditionally make and you said look at the 1930s that is basically what we're going to go into except it will probably but be much worse than the 1920s. Well, we're there. We're starting to see the famine. We're starting to see the energy shortages. You're going to have to take a bicycle to work. So, you know, it's starting to happen now. You're going to see riots in the street. You're going to see millions and millions of these so-called illegal migrants being thrown out of their countries or at least are fighting in the streets because the people will say people of the countries will say you are taking my job and I can't get a job because you're taking you're here illegally. This is my country. So these are the kind of things that we're going to see. You know, I hate to be a gurum because I'm basically a very optimistic person and to be an entrepreneur, you have to be optimistic, right? And uh but this is reality. You know, when you see all of these trends, excessive debt, excessive overvaluation like we've never seen before, then you see liquidity drying up. The private sector, the private credit sector, it gives a good picture what's happening in the credit markets. And don't consider this an isolated event. This is not an isolated event. This is the canary in the mine, as we used to call it. >> Right. >> Yeah. It's it's interesting. You and I were chatting about it. I mean, you know, we're talking about the rates and that kind of textbook knowledge. You know, Vulker raised rates aggressively and inflation collapsed a little. Is today different because the debt load is much larger? I guess let me ask you more specific to wrap up because our time always goes too fast. Bird, you know, to just to show the devil's advocate on the other side. I mean, what maybe specific kind of data point would you would would make you say, okay, I'm wrong. the system absorbed the leverage. >> Well, I think if if the Federal Reserve basically made it clear that they're not going to bail out any sector that is collapsing and then I say, "Okay, get ready for depression. It's going to be earlier and sharper. Uh but it would be over sooner." See, Paul Walker came in and he did that. He but he's the only Fed chairman that I've ever seen that had the courage to say we're not going to have just more expensive money. That's the important thing is the liquidity. And he didn't care about drying up liquidity. He said that you dry up the liquidity. He even imposed credit controls on credit card debt. I think it was in March of 1980. And so he actually killed inflation. Paul Borger should get more credit than he does for making that decision because most economists say no no you got to raise interest rates. You know there's a good example marketure came in in Britain. Britain interest rates from single digits they went to double digits because they kept on raising interest rates because inflation was rising. Okay. And I wrote a letter to March when she came in. I said you have to stop raising interest rates. when you stop raising interest rate and start seeing to it that rates will decline then inflation will decline uh I don't know if she ever read the letter but she did exactly that and in double digit inflation uh went away uh for England Erdogan and Turkey is doing the same thing you know one economist on TV yesterday he said u oh Erdigar terrible and they have very high inflation, 30% inflation and because he fired all his central bankers that wanted to raise interest rates to have high higher interest rates to fight inflation. Well, Erdiggon was correct. He was doing exactly what what I was advising in the in our publications. I said he has to stop the central bankers, his central bankers from raising interest rates. The interest rates or the inflation rate was about 180%. The economist yesterday didn't mention that because he said, "Oh, the inflation is terrible in Turkey. It's 30%." Yeah, but he got it down from 180%. and he fired three of his central bankers because they were raising interest rates when he want when he said no you're going to fight inflation much better by lowering interest rates but you got to have tight money at the same time so he got inflation down from 180% to 30%. That's a great achievement. Now of course yesterday didn't mention that that he was very successful in getting inflation down that much you know. So this is how how the actual news is always t tainted right now as people don't believe anything that comes out of Washington. You know it's going to be li the the BLS numbers they're all lies inflation numbers they're lies everything you people can't believe that this is what come out of the government. Yes, but we pay these people to lies. >> Yeah. Well said. All right. Well, I mean, either way, the next Fed meeting is this week, April 28th to 29th decision due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern. We got a conference after that, and then of course, I'll be covering it on Thursday. Again, markets largely expect the Fed to hold rates in the 3 1/2 to 3 and a/4% range. Uh, Bert, thank you for this as always. Founder of Domen Capital Research, publisher of the Wellington Letter. Uh, we appreciate your time and your perspective. Well, you know, one thing I I would like to say this special report that we're offering, it's free of charge, okay? So, you don't give your credit card. You go to domancap.com and it's 18 pages of really, really good reading if you're interested in what is going to cause the next crisis and how to handle it. So 18page special report uh and um it's it's called the trigger for the next global financial crisis. So if you're interested to know what the trigger for the next global financial crisis is, here's a way to find out. It's free uh 18 pages. You can read that uh in a short time. But your time is short. If baseball watching baseball is more important than you you will miss. >> I appreciate that. Well said. Uh, and hopefully they're keeping it tuned right here to Kiko News as well. All right, Bart. Appreciate your time. Thanks again for today. >> Okay. Thank you very much, Neil. Bye. >> Thank you. All right. And thank you again for watching Kiko News. The question today, are investors looking at real prices or hidden losses? Let us know where you stand in the comments. I'm Jeremy Safford. Thank you for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Heat. Heat.
Gold Will Fall First, Then ‘Fly Sky High,’ Bert Dohmen Says
Summary
Transcript
As stock price updates every single second, a private credit loan gets marked by a model. And that difference might be exactly where the next financial crisis begins. Welcome back. I'm Jeremy Saffron, and right now, the S&P 500 is pushing record highs, powered, of course, as we've mentioned before, by big tech. But look under the hood for a moment. We got Brent crude back above $107 a barrel. Private credit funds are suddenly facing $15 billion in redemption requests. Feels like that number keeps going up and yield chasing investors are discovering the exit door is is much much narrower than they thought. So is the stock market seeing the strength like we see today or is it missing the hidden losses inside the private market system? Last November, Bert Domen warned us that 2026 would be the year that the system gets tested. Let's put that test to the thesis. We're going to we're going to put that warning to the test rather. Bert Domen, founder of Domenolman Capital Research, joining me now. Welcome back to the program, Burke. Good to see you. >> Yeah, good to see you as always, Jeremy. >> Yeah. >> Uh, you know, I I was watching our last time really the viewers were very curious as to what we meant about 2026. Here we are, you know, end of April. I don't want to just repeat the same warning today. I want to test that mechanism because you warned us about this year and it would be kind of the danger zone. I mean, uh, we're looking at recent reports just this morning. Private credit funds are facing heavy redemption pressure. Uh, you talked about those cracks. Is this is this the crack you were kind of looking for back then or is it this still early warning noise? >> No, this is it. I think it's going to be the big one. It's very reminiscent of other crashes crashes. The most recent one we had was 2008. We um gave a sell signal I think was two days from the top in the Dow Jones in October of 2007 and then the market deterioration started. But Wall Street is always very good at hiding uh these uh tops which are created when the big u the big smart money start selling this. This is called distribution. It's um the process where the big money friends of Wall Street and so on sell their huge uh positions in the stock market while at the same time there their shields go on TV. Oh, everything is wonderful and there's no problem inside. look at this and this and they give some examples uh why there are no warnings yet and that is uh that takes a long time this time because we think it is probably one of the uh most dangerous times that we've seen in many decades. the the distribution process has taken now since about mid year last year and so it takes a long time for all these big owners of stocks to get rid of their stocks and they sell to the public the public you know Joe Granville used to call them the bag holders somebody has to own the stocks on the way into the basement you know and Wall Street doesn't want to own those stocks stocks as they go down and raise 50 to 90% of their value. And that is possibly what we're going to have. And given today's drastic overvaluations, which are more overvalued than 1929, you know, uh it's going to be a humdinger. We are seeing stocks all the time like Palanteer, etc. being recommended by Wall Street. But people never look at valuations. The as a PE until recently had P of 388 388 PE. It takes you if you would get all the earnings of the company you owned the whole company. It would take you 388 years to get your money back. You're not going to live that long. I don't think so. Um the the problem is we we're right now at the time of drastic overvaluation of stocks. Yes, there are stocks that they report good earnings gains over expectations but people never ask who gives these estimates. Well, Wall Street gives these estimates you so they make the estimates of earnings gains uh low so that they can be beaten. So then the news and oh every so so many% of the stocks um reported better earnings. Uh this week is going to be a big um week for earnings. I think one of the biggest in several decades. So be careful. Uh don't don't look at just earnings. Look at what they are in relation to the price of the stock. stocks have now the highest overvaluation in history. >> You know to to we were talking a little bit about this Moody's report too. I mean it's this they have this new warning here because this is bigger than just investors trying to redeem from private credit funds. Uh Moody says you know that the fund finance market has grown past $1 trillion. I mean in plain English that means private credit and private equity funds are borrowing money at the fund level to manage liquidity and kind of bridge delayed exits and and keep things moving when cash is not coming back fast enough. So now you you may have illquid loans inside the fund. Investors are asking for the money back and the fund itself obviously using more borrowing to manage that gap. I mean, that sounds like leverage layered on top of illquidity. Is that the real danger that private credit is is not just hard to sell, but increasingly financed with debt that can amplify losses when when the cycle turns? See, Jeremy, you got it right there. We are seeing the perfect storm. We are seeing all the different elements necessary for remarkable downturn in the stock market. We are seeing massive borrowing via margin loans. This is a new record high margin loans. Okay. Then at the same time we see uh all these other extremes. We see spaxs. We see all the other garbage that they're selling to the public and uh so we're seeing massive illquidity now in the markets. developed the theory of liquidity that what determines the major trends of the stock market. It's not earnings. Earnings are irrelevant at the turning point. You know, they're they're good on the way up, but at the turning point, they don't give you good timing signals. So, um we are seeing now massive margin loans, new record highs. We're seeing ill liquidity in the private uh credit market and we warned about the private credit market for the last year. We said they are totally illquid. We give an example Harvard has a endowment fund billions of dollars in the endowments but it's all invested in private credit or most of it and so they needed a couple of billion dollars to pay operating expenses. They didn't sell any of the private credit because it was unsalable. So they had to go and borrow a few billion dollars to pay operating expenses. So these are all the warnings that we look for. You know the private credit is is going to be the leader into the abyss and that's what we have been saying for the last year and now it turns out all these private credit funds are stopping redemptions. You can't even get your money out. >> Yeah. Yeah, I mean you watch Jamie Diamond, he says that he's not worried, you know, and and again, we look at this Moody's report borrowing against their own assets just to manage liquidity and cover those redemptions. I mean, if these funds are taking out loans just to survive delayed exits, isn't that embedded leverage, you know, the kind of that exact trigger that turns ili liquidity into insolveny? >> That's exactly right. Yes. You know, and at this point, you never want to listen to the top guys that are connected with Wall Street like the banking system and so on because that is u that is where you get the false news. And you know, Colonel Douglas McGregor was on and he gave a good quote from Andrew Melon, you know, and about a 100 years ago, he was the leading and the richest banker and so on and he said in May of 1929, we live in the period of unbroken prosperity. Everything is fine. Okay. Well, of course, it wasn't. At the same time that he said that, he was selling all of his stocks. Okay. But he was telling the public is oh it's all wonderful. >> I mean we're also seeing kind of the these reports that that banks are packaging these funds finance loans into assetbacked securities to to move the risk off their balance sheets and the Fed is now actively investigating bank exposure. Um you know we were chatting before before coming to air and you said you've seen and you called for 2008 and you saw some things that seem a lot different this time. I mean, are we watching a repeat of 2008 where this debt gets repackaged until nobody knows who's exactly holding the bag, as you call it, or or what's different? >> They're doing the same thing that they did in 2008. Do you remember the CDOS and the CDLs? They even had synthetic funds that they sold. They was an an image of what real funds with real assets had. and so on said, "Okay, we'll pretend that they actually have at the same assets and here's how you can buy a participation in that." So you're buying participations in nothing and figments of the imagination. Wall Street is so wonderful at creating all of this false stuff, especially near top. So you I hate to talk like that but we have no dependency on on Wall Street and we are not bolden to anyone there. So we can say it the way it is. And a lot of people that that are Wall Street employees, they are not at liberty to say what they really think. But I am I've always this is my company I started about half a century ago and you know when I formed that the theory of liquidity and credit I said that's the only thing you want to look at is the liquidity increasing or decreasing and is credit increasing or decreasing and that is the only thing that determines the major trend of the stock market not the short term it doesn't tell you what the market's going to do next week but it it is the long-term trend and the smart investors like uh Warren Buffett and so on, they go and look at the long-term trends. I remember Warren Buffett, I was in graduate school at the at the time and there was an article in the local investment magazine about a guy in Omaha, Nebraska who started a hedge fund that was doing so well and that was Warren Buffett. Nobody had ever heard of him and he only had some friends and family in his fund, you know. So that was an interesting time. I he was in Omaha and I was in Minneapolis. So yeah, so when you your experience is so important because if you've been in the markets for a long time, you've seen it before different versions except this time I I can multiply that many times over five times or 10 times over 10 times the leverage 10 times the amount of speculation is I mean when you when you think of the speculation in ETFs now they've got ETFs for single stocks You know, then they've got these options that expire in one day. You you buy that, they start trading in the morning, they stop trading at night. They just go out of existence. I mean, there all these games. They've kept a prediction market, you know. So, you can make money without ever looking at the valuation of a stock or the stock market. You just go by, well, I think uh the Trump is going to say this and this and I'm going to buy or I'm going to sell based on that. So we are seeing speculation at the maximum and that can only end the battery. >> You know this is interesting. I mean because you could say I mean Warren Buffett he's been sitting on a huge cash pile basically waiting for better prices. I mean I watched his latest interview. He was saying he thinks that there's still more to come. Is is that the the right mindset here? hold liquidity and wait for the for selling rather than, you know, chase gold, chase silver, chase distress credit after a big move. Yes. You know, for that he's a long-term investor and for him that that is perfect. He can be a couple of years early in raising cash and so on. Uh because he says, "I'm not a timer." But that is not important. What's important is to have cash when nobody else has it. And during the 2008 crisis, he had the cash and nobody else had it. And Goldman Sachs had to go to Warren Buffett to get a multibillion dollar loan, you know. And Warren Buffett could name his own terms. I think he asked for warrants to buy the stock anytime later date and so on. But he was the only one that had money. The banks didn't have any money to lend out, you know. But Warren Buffett did. And so the next bottom he's going to be buying uh uh everything inside. He's going to see bars. I I predict that many of the grammar stocks of today they're going to be down 50% 80% 90%. And you know that's that's based on history. Okay? This is not just an extreme valuation based on history. This is what happens to the high-f flyers uh during big bare markets. And if this is going to be bigger than the past ones, you can bet it's going to be there. Uh you know, I have one rule in the bare market. You don't want to start bargain hunting until the big popular stocks are have price earnings ratios in the single digits. That's below 10. Right now, many of these stocks have PE ratio 100 to one, 200, 300 to one. Well, they have to get back to valuation. That doesn't mean the company is bad or they're going to go bankrupt. No, it's just that they're overvalued right now. Like somebody trying to sell you a Yugo for half a million dollars. Would you buy it? No. But you might like it if it were reasonable price at 20,000. You know, >> that's it's a matter of valuation. >> You know, right now we see this weird kind of interesting divergence. uh you're you're describing severe stress in private credit. Um and what you're seeing these reports I mean public credits telling almost a different story. It was today alone according to Bloomberg companies like Walmart and Intel they swarm the primary market to lock in debt with investment grade spreads actually tightening. How do you square those two things? Is the public market just kind of lagging behind or are we looking at two completely different credit realities? Well, we're talking about reality and um and then what Wall Street wants you to think, you know. So, they're two different things. Uh at the top when they're still distributing stocks as we are, we do a lot of technical analysis. We call it advanced technical analysis because there we pick up the signs that the the big smart money is exiting the market. And we have been seeing that now for the last oh at least uh nine months or so. So started actually in June of last year. And uh so this showed us that the big money is exiting. The big smart money. And when the big smart money is exiting uh we don't want to be buying. We don't want our clients to be buying. We don't manage money. Okay? because everybody has a different psychological makeup and uh you know most people want to buy at the top and they want to sell at the bottom and that's a very difficult way to make money and uh so we we don't like to do the handholding and we just look at the markets. We look at the markets instead of the investor and uh the markets and when they tell us caution don't buy then we don't buy you know it's that simple. Now last year of course we made that we had that April plunge uh and um then everybody started buying uh the highf flyers again and um so we did not at that time suggest getting into all of the stock the stuff that had plunged. So some people might say that we missed opportunities and a big rally that was manipulated afterwards, you know, but we got into what we consider less risky investment with a higher potential and that was gold and silver related investments, you know. So uh some of the stocks that we bought into like the silver miners, they were up about 140% in less than a year. 140%. that certainly beat the S&P and we at a much lower risk. So that's the way you want to invest. >> Yeah. Yeah. I was going to ask you, I mean, you know, when when you say Wall Street's trying to hand retail the bag, um I think people get that at home. I mean, what's the what's the product this time? I mean, you were talking about glamour stocks today maybe falling that 50 80%. AI is holding up the public market through big tech, but according to industry estimates, I mean, legacy software businesses make up a significant portion of private credit portfolios. Is is AI both the the boom and the trigger? Yes, that's so well said. It actually is. You know, all these glamour indust is is I've called it magic in the past. It's amazing what AI is the greatest thing since the industrial revolution. But we had other glamour sectors before 1920s for example anything related to flight airplanes airlines etc. the stock shot up. Okay. So uh it was basically straight line up and then came the crash and then from 1929 to 1932 airline sector went down 87%. Okay people were still flying there was they love flying they loved being passengers going someplace very fast etc etc. So, the industry did well, but the stocks declined 87%. That's so important for people to realize, >> you know, for for the average investor watching back home, Bert, I mean, how how does an average viewer kind of recognize when Wall Street is distributing risk to them instead of offering opportunity? >> Uh, the best way is by subscribing to our Wellington letter and our trading services. uh because we do all the work for you. We do all all the stuff that we've learned over the last well I've been training the markets for more than 50 years but uh this is knowledge experience the the technical analysis advanced technical analysis we know how to interpret the signals that we get with volume so many uh analysts only look at indicators that are related to price. No, you have to look at the volume as well. The volume is the biggest factor uh in the technical analysis and so often forgotten by by the younger inexperienced analysts that have only been doing it for the last 20 years. So, uh this is the important thing. You have to know where to look and there is a time to be fully invested. There's a time to be very cautious and the stuff that uh Wall Street wants you to get into like private credit. You don't want that because it's totally illquid. You don't want anything the way that you invest in the fund and then you want to cash out of the fund and they say, "Oh, sorry. We're not taking any withdrawals right now. Uh call us back in a year or so." That is not that liquidity. Okay. So our simple law is the theory of liquidity and credit. When liquidity and credit are expanding, you want to be investing. When they're contracting as they are now, you want to not invest. You want to be out of these type of stocks. Anything that's that's highly valued that there are sectors that are undervalued that are where the stocks sell at singledigit pees. they exist and um you can find them. So that's where you want to be. >> Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to get you to maybe name one of them. But before that too, I mean gold in in this environment has acted like protection. I mean we've seen that run up. But but in a real liquidity squeeze investors sell what they can, not what they want to. Does does you know gold get hit first before it goes higher here? >> Yes. You know, you got again, you got it exactly right. There will be shortterm uh declines there. Short-term meaning, you know, not 10 a 10 year decline, but uh uh in in gold and silver as people run for the exits everywhere. Okay? And uh so they sell what they can and uh if you can't sell individual stocks that you want to get rid of then you have to sell stuff that you can sell where there is a bidder and that would would also be the precious metals. So the precious metals will have a decline but always bottoms out much earlier than the general stock market. And as soon as the big investors uh decide they want to get in again, they will buy it. And then you see gold and silver, they're going to fly sky high. But first, you're going to have that decline and that's going to discourage a lot of people. And so that's why you have to make up your mind right now and write it down what your decision is that you will not sell for the next five years. Okay? That is so important because people that they think they're long-term investors suddenly they become when there's a market decline they become short-term investor and they become traders they say oh no I want to trade this market and uh that that is wrong you know Jesse Livermore he was the greatest trader in 1920s made lots of money short-term trading on the floor of the exchange okay but he said in 1935 after the crash and so on he said the Big money is made by sitting, not by trading. That's that's a very important statement from someone who made millions of dollars of short-term trading. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And bring it back to gold and silver maybe for this year. I mean, you've you've argued the precious metals are are the safer place to be, but both have already had nice moves over the past year. I mean, from here, do you see more upside in 2026? And and which one you know has the better risk reward here. Is it gold? Is it silver? Is it the miners? >> Well, you have to define your time horizon. >> Right. >> Right. People always forget that. I used to speak a lot at conference and people would ask me, "Well, where do you think gold is going?" or or somebody I remember one time said in the in the restroom he said oh well yesterday on the panel you were bullish on gold but you were wrong because today it's down you know yeah so he's got a one day time horizon that's not the way to look at the markets you you have to define your time horizon before you go into and if you have trouble staying with your decision write it down every everybody Everybody in the market should have a I have a spiral bond notebook and the trades are in there. What what you decide to do and so on. So you have to keep a daily diary of the market. Put in there what is important? What happened to it that was important? How did the market react to it? What you find is a good investment? What you find is a bad investment. Yeah. Don't rely on your memory. Yeah, these these were spiral. I've got a whole stack of these spiralbound notebooks, one for each year. So, uh that part is getting big. But it's really important because you can go back in time and say, "Oh gosh, I want to remember October 2007 for example, when we gave the sal stock market and it was the top I think of the Dow Jones. So you you want to if you decide to invest, you want to treat like a business. I did something as an experiment some years ago. I would ask people, you know, you meet at cocktail parties and so on and they'd ask me about the markets. I said, "Do you know what is in your IRA?" And he said, "No, no, I'm somebody." I said, "Well, do you have bonds or do you have stocks?" They didn't. Most of the people didn't even know that stock related or bond related investments. They had no idea where their savings for their retirement were um were placed. So, this is not how you want to invest. You want to know exactly what you want. And and you know, that's so important. You can't just take the attitudes uh you know uh God will take care of it. >> I mean a lot of people do. We see that all the time. I mean it's a key point. Most people know that their maybe they know their IRA balance but they don't actually know what they own inside. So I mean what should um viewers kind of check tonight? You know we're looking at this program. They're watching the interview. I mean tonight should they check their stock exposure? Should they check bond duration, private credit exposure, leverage ETFs? >> All of those. All of those. and really see where your exposure is in an illlquid market environment. That is a very important thing and uh then act accordingly. There are going to be assets because you have to um really see where what is going to benefit what the Federal Reserve will doing. So Mr. Trump is going to have his guy as head of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Morris. He he's was good before. He had all many of the right ideas um about the Federal Reserve, but is he going to be his own man when he gets in that position or not? You know, that's important. Now, one thing I like about Trump in in the case of monetary policies, he really would like to have lower interest rates. And you know there's a common fiction in the economic world uh and that is that to fight inflation you have to raise interest rates and that is exactly the wrong prescription. You don't raise interest rates by itself in order to fight inflation because higher interest rates are cost of doing business. when the cost of business rises and then you have to raise prices in order to pay for the higher interest rate. So higher interest rates traditionally when they're not a function of tight money then you want to expect inflation. I started my business in 1977. 1978 a new Federal Reserve chairman. He was formerly the president of the Textron and he became Fed chairman. He said, "I'm not going to fight inflation with tight money. We're going to do with with interest rates." And I said, "Oh, we this is a prescription for inflation full speed ahead." So we want to buy all the inflation hedges, gold, silver, all the mining stocks and we don't recommend at that time call options in the mining stocks. We we don't we don't recommend options anymore because most people overdo it. They we say no don't put more than 3% in any one option. That was always what we said and uh then we would find people had maybe half of their portfolio in one one call option. So that's not the way to address. But uh the thing is, you know, with uh where to put your money, the the Federal Reserve is going to react by putting money into the system. They're going to have to bail out. It's going to be the big bailout happening. And that means artificial money creation. Artificial money creation means reduced purchasing power of the money that you have. So instead of a loaf of bread selling God, I couldn't believe that recently uh for $9 for a loaf of bread uh and it's really unhealthy stuff at the same time. Uh so you're going to see a loaf of bread for $50 or $100 and people are going to pay it if they want to eat bread. You know, there's a people have to read about the German hyperinflation in the 19 early 1920s. There was a German entrepreneur. He was very smart. Yugo Stinis, Si Nes. There's a book about him. You have to read it. And he ended up owning several thousand companies that he bought uh during that time with borrow money. he would borrow the money and buy these companies and um the the prices went up because these were all companies in the consumer sector that were selling or making things that people really needed. So he became immensely wealthy. Yugo standers read a book about the experience that during money so fast the the government didn't have enough printing presses. So they confiscated the larger uh private printing presses at that time in order to print money faster and uh because you know thousand mark uh note uh suddenly became a$10 billion uh note and so then that they couldn't print money fast enough with the new printing presses that they uh expropriated And then they u uh they use rubber stamps. So suddenly a million mark note became uh a billion mark note you know which was millard in German. And uh so uh this is what what happens. And uh they had a responsible uh uh people at one time and the government but Germany was forced to pay reparations to the allies for damage of World War I. And of course there wasn't enough money around so they had to create. Now if everything starts falling apart uh what what is Wall Street going to do? What is what is the Federal Reserve going to do? they're going to have a choice. Uh let everything uh go bankrupt or print a lot of money to save everybody. Well, of course, it's going to be the latter because the long-term side effects, which is very high inflation, is probably not going to have to be handled by the people who created the mess. say that's politicians are only in there for a short period of time, long enough to steal our money and then they go back and enjoy and enjoy the the Bahamas on the beach. So, you know, you always have to think what's going to happen and how you going to react to it. Right now, I see the big problem in the world is energy oil. There's going to be huge shortage of oil. There's already a huge shortage of fertilizer which is made from oil. Helium. Who would have thought that helium gas uh would be scarce? But they need helium to make semiconductors without with the closure of the street for moose. Helium is not coming onto the market. The fertilizer is not coming onto the market. So you're going to have worldwide famines. This is a forecast. I mean 2020 a forecast for the decade that we always traditionally make and you said look at the 1930s that is basically what we're going to go into except it will probably but be much worse than the 1920s. Well, we're there. We're starting to see the famine. We're starting to see the energy shortages. You're going to have to take a bicycle to work. So, you know, it's starting to happen now. You're going to see riots in the street. You're going to see millions and millions of these so-called illegal migrants being thrown out of their countries or at least are fighting in the streets because the people will say people of the countries will say you are taking my job and I can't get a job because you're taking you're here illegally. This is my country. So these are the kind of things that we're going to see. You know, I hate to be a gurum because I'm basically a very optimistic person and to be an entrepreneur, you have to be optimistic, right? And uh but this is reality. You know, when you see all of these trends, excessive debt, excessive overvaluation like we've never seen before, then you see liquidity drying up. The private sector, the private credit sector, it gives a good picture what's happening in the credit markets. And don't consider this an isolated event. This is not an isolated event. This is the canary in the mine, as we used to call it. >> Right. >> Yeah. It's it's interesting. You and I were chatting about it. I mean, you know, we're talking about the rates and that kind of textbook knowledge. You know, Vulker raised rates aggressively and inflation collapsed a little. Is today different because the debt load is much larger? I guess let me ask you more specific to wrap up because our time always goes too fast. Bird, you know, to just to show the devil's advocate on the other side. I mean, what maybe specific kind of data point would you would would make you say, okay, I'm wrong. the system absorbed the leverage. >> Well, I think if if the Federal Reserve basically made it clear that they're not going to bail out any sector that is collapsing and then I say, "Okay, get ready for depression. It's going to be earlier and sharper. Uh but it would be over sooner." See, Paul Walker came in and he did that. He but he's the only Fed chairman that I've ever seen that had the courage to say we're not going to have just more expensive money. That's the important thing is the liquidity. And he didn't care about drying up liquidity. He said that you dry up the liquidity. He even imposed credit controls on credit card debt. I think it was in March of 1980. And so he actually killed inflation. Paul Borger should get more credit than he does for making that decision because most economists say no no you got to raise interest rates. You know there's a good example marketure came in in Britain. Britain interest rates from single digits they went to double digits because they kept on raising interest rates because inflation was rising. Okay. And I wrote a letter to March when she came in. I said you have to stop raising interest rates. when you stop raising interest rate and start seeing to it that rates will decline then inflation will decline uh I don't know if she ever read the letter but she did exactly that and in double digit inflation uh went away uh for England Erdogan and Turkey is doing the same thing you know one economist on TV yesterday he said u oh Erdigar terrible and they have very high inflation, 30% inflation and because he fired all his central bankers that wanted to raise interest rates to have high higher interest rates to fight inflation. Well, Erdiggon was correct. He was doing exactly what what I was advising in the in our publications. I said he has to stop the central bankers, his central bankers from raising interest rates. The interest rates or the inflation rate was about 180%. The economist yesterday didn't mention that because he said, "Oh, the inflation is terrible in Turkey. It's 30%." Yeah, but he got it down from 180%. and he fired three of his central bankers because they were raising interest rates when he want when he said no you're going to fight inflation much better by lowering interest rates but you got to have tight money at the same time so he got inflation down from 180% to 30%. That's a great achievement. Now of course yesterday didn't mention that that he was very successful in getting inflation down that much you know. So this is how how the actual news is always t tainted right now as people don't believe anything that comes out of Washington. You know it's going to be li the the BLS numbers they're all lies inflation numbers they're lies everything you people can't believe that this is what come out of the government. Yes, but we pay these people to lies. >> Yeah. Well said. All right. Well, I mean, either way, the next Fed meeting is this week, April 28th to 29th decision due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern. We got a conference after that, and then of course, I'll be covering it on Thursday. Again, markets largely expect the Fed to hold rates in the 3 1/2 to 3 and a/4% range. Uh, Bert, thank you for this as always. Founder of Domen Capital Research, publisher of the Wellington Letter. Uh, we appreciate your time and your perspective. Well, you know, one thing I I would like to say this special report that we're offering, it's free of charge, okay? So, you don't give your credit card. You go to domancap.com and it's 18 pages of really, really good reading if you're interested in what is going to cause the next crisis and how to handle it. So 18page special report uh and um it's it's called the trigger for the next global financial crisis. So if you're interested to know what the trigger for the next global financial crisis is, here's a way to find out. It's free uh 18 pages. You can read that uh in a short time. But your time is short. If baseball watching baseball is more important than you you will miss. >> I appreciate that. Well said. Uh, and hopefully they're keeping it tuned right here to Kiko News as well. All right, Bart. Appreciate your time. Thanks again for today. >> Okay. Thank you very much, Neil. Bye. >> Thank you. All right. And thank you again for watching Kiko News. The question today, are investors looking at real prices or hidden losses? Let us know where you stand in the comments. I'm Jeremy Safford. Thank you for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Heat. Heat.