Housing Market Now Falling Into A Deflationary Vortex | Reventure Consulting’s Nick Gerli

Summary

• Market Outlook: The housing market is currently experiencing a disinflationary and deflationary vortex, with national home price growth slowing to flat year-over-year and declines observed in nearly half of U.S. states.
• Rental Market: Rent growth has decelerated to its lowest level in 14 years, contributing to increased inventory and signaling potential continued declines in the housing market through 2026.
• Federal Reserve Impact: Although the Federal Reserve has resumed rate cuts, mortgage rates remain lower than at the start of the year, raising questions about potential recovery or further decline in the housing market.
• Investor Influence: A significant portion of single-family homes are investor-owned, with some areas seeing up to 50% investor ownership, which could impact both rental and housing markets as investors adjust to market conditions.
• Immigration and Demand: Changes in immigration patterns, particularly a decline in work permit applications, have influenced rental market dynamics, potentially reducing rental demand and impacting housing market stability.
• Affordability Issues: High debt-to-income ratios and affordability challenges are pushing demand down in the for-sale market, while economic factors such as lower population growth and hiring slowdowns are affecting rental demand.
• Regional Variations: The housing market is highly localized, with significant variations in price trends and inventory levels across different regions and neighborhoods, emphasizing the importance of local market analysis for buyers and sellers.
• Future Predictions: The trajectory of the housing market will largely depend on inventory levels, with potential for increased inventory leading to further price declines, especially if economic conditions such as employment weaken further.

Transcript

current assessment of the housing market is that it's in a disinflation and deflationary vortex right now. Home price growth on the national basis has slowed to basically flat year-over-year. And now home prices are declining in almost half the states in the US. Meanwhile, rent growth has slowed to its lowest level in 14 years, indicating that we're just seeing inventory pile up all across the housing market. Uh, I think this could be the precipice of a big decline and I think these declines are going to continue into 2026. [Music] Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm founder and your host, Adam Tagert. The housing market remains in an injured state with transactions still frozen in an increasing number of states seeing falling prices. But the Federal Reserve has resumed rate cuts and mortgage rates are now lower than they were at the start of the year. So, will we start to see some healing in the housing market as we head into 2026? Or will things get worse from here? Today, we've got the good fortune to be joined by Nick Jurley, founder of Reventure Consulting and creator of the excellent Reventure app. Nick will walk us through his latest outlook on the US housing market and share a number of charts with us. Nick, thanks so much for joining us today. >> Great being here, Adam. Thank you for having me on. >> Hey, I very much appreciate you coming back on, Nick. Um, look, lots to talk about here. Um, I know you got a ton of charts uh that you want to walk us through and there's a couple of of key points you and I have already identified to talk through here, but if we can just very high level summary level, what's your current assessment of the US housing market? >> Current assessment of the housing market is that it's in a disinflation and deflationary vortex right now. Home price growth on the national basis has slowed to basically flat year-over-year. And now home prices are declining in almost half the states in the US. Meanwhile, rent growth has slowed to its lowest level in 14 years, indicating that we're just seeing inventory pile up all across the housing market. Uh I think this could be the precipice of a big decline and I think these declines are going to continue into 2026. >> Okay, precipice of a big decline. Um, so Nick, if I remember last time you and I talked, um, you weren't you weren't sure if we were going to have a negative year year-over-year in housing prices. Um, looks like we're getting close now, but but certainly flat year-over-year right now, as you just said. Um, but being on the precipice of a bigger decline here, are you more pessimistic about the future of the housing market than you were when you and I talked just three or four months ago? >> I am, Adam. And the main reason I am is actually what's going on in the rental market right now. Uh the rental market has taken a big downward shift the last six months. We're seeing declining rents in more and more markets. And we're actually seeing the lowest single family rent growth we've seen in 14 years going back to the end of the last housing crash. And so when you see the rental market also start to experience the downturn at the same time as the forale market, that's telling you fundamentally speaking there's weakness. There's disinflation and deflationary pressures going on. Of course, this is still a very local story. Not all areas are feeling this the same way. However, I have become more pessimistic over the last 6 months. >> Okay. And Nick, do you think this is because um more and more households are becoming challenged um and therefore they can afford to pay less for rents and afford to pay less for houses? And we've talked about the huge unaffordability that's going on in the housing market right now. Um or is this more of an inventory where there's just more and more inventory coming on and a lot of supply and demand? If you've got a lot of supply, demand is lower. >> I think it's all of that, Adam. So there's definitely an affordability issue in the forale market. You know, households right now need to pay about 37 to 38% of their gross income on their debt when they purchase a house. Uh I think ICE mortgage monitor just showed that 38% is the current debt to income ratio for mortgage rate locks, which is one of the highest levels we have ever seen. So there's just an affordability issue on the forale market that's pushing demand down. The sales are way down. But on the rental market, on the rental market, the affordability isn't as bad, but we're now seeing some headwinds due to lower population growth, lower immigration, and now some economic weakness and hiring that's now causing rental demand to go down. So, we have, you know, demand on both sides of the housing market slowing at the same time while that big pipeline of all the homes and apartments that was built over the last three or four years is hitting the market. And oh yeah, we have investors now selling as well because they can no longer afford to own their investment property. So all of those factors at once are converging to push this inventory on the market and cause this disinflation in the US housing market which ultimately Adam will be uh great news for your viewers. I think this is a good thing for most people. >> Uh I I would agree too and we've talked about this many many times in the past but it's just not good for society when what is it uh somebody with a median income can't afford uh the median house in like 99% of counties. I think I remember that stat came out about a year ago, right? Um Okay. >> Oh, definitely. Definitely. >> Yeah. Yeah. Now, granted, the correction part might not feel fun to many folks, and I'm sure there will be knock-on effects on the economy that we we might not necessarily like, but society, it's a good thing if housing is, say, fairly valued to the majority. Um, all right. So many things you put in there, Nick. So, let's strap in. We're going to we're going to bang through a whole bunch of things. You mentioned immigration real quickly. Um, I I'm presuming you meant more illegal immigration because I think legal immigration is still continuing as best I know kind of at it its its usual flow, but obviously illegal immigration. Borders been sealed. Pretty much no more border crossings going on. 2 million, I think, um, uh, illegal immigrants deported this year, either uh, actively deported or they've self- deepported themselves. Uh I know over the past year or past year as as it looked increasingly clear that Trump might win and he has been uh you know he's been promising to to really crack down in terms of getting the illegal as many illegal immigrants out of the country as he can. Um the question has been raised a lot well what impact is that going to have on home prices? And what I had heard was sort of like probably not too much. um the the demand on on on home prices uh from illegal immigrants uh is probably pretty low because these aren't people that are necessarily, you know, competing with the average American aspiring homeowner. These are people who are, you know, probably renting, probably doubling, tripling, quadrupling up uh in in rentals. But I got to say, I don't think I really explored as much what the impact might be on the rental market. Sounds like you're saying it's an observable phenomenon at this point. 100%. And this is one of the most important stories in the housing market for uh anyone to pay attention to right now. There's 25 million investorowned homes in the US. So a quarter of all single family homes roughly are owned by real real estate investors according to Adam Data Solutions. So you have a quarter of all homes owned by investors. And in some markets, in some zip codes, it's half the homes owned by investors. Like if you were to go south of Atlanta or west of Jacksonville or west of Phoenix, some of those zip codes are 40 50% investorowned. So what that means is that what's going on in the rental market is going to start to have an overflow into what's going on in the housing market. And the one metric I just want to show you all uh you know to Adam for you and your viewers to understand you know what's going on with immigration why this is important is to look at a data point tracked by the Brookings Institution. It's work permit applications among eligible immigrants. So this is uh immigrants applying for work applications in the US. This could be illegal immigrants. This could be people who came in legally as well applying to work. What do you see? A huge surge in work applications through the beginning of this year to an all-time high rate. Since March 2025, it has plummeted by 60 to 70%. that plummeting in applying for work applications is now overflowing into the US housing market. We're now seeing rent growth for single family homes plummet down to the lowest level that we've seen since 2011. So immigration essentially was boosting the rental market. It was actually preventing the rental market from crashing. Like probably at some point in 2022, 2023, the rental market probably should have crashed. It didn't crash. it kind of held the rent growth held a bit. Now it's really starting to slow. And a really interesting study by John Burns Real Estate Consulting found that from 2022 to 2024, immigration was responsible for all of the 1 million net growth in renter households. I'm just going to zoom in on that for you, Adam. So for over 3 years, immigration was responsible for all of the increase in renters in the US. Now, comparatively, adults already living in the US were responsible for 95% of the growth in owner households. So, this reflects the point you just made. Immigration does not have an immediate impact on the forale buying housing market. However, it's having now a massive impact on the rental market. And I think we're going to see this rent growth from single family homes slow even further over the next year, which is putting more disinflationary pressure on the housing market and is ultimately going to cause fewer investors to buy, more investors to sell, and more inventory to hit the forale housing market as we head into 2026. >> Okay. Um, so let's pull that thread in just a second. Um, what I want to highlight for folks here is, you know, lots and lots of debates, especially on this channel, of whether it's going to be in, you know, inflation is going to continue, maybe even rise going forward next year. Um, some people think it's going to do that because the economy is going to pick up. Some people think it's going to happen because of tariffs. Some think people think it's going to happen because the Fed is cutting rates again when the economy might be growing and and therefore inflation may respike. Then there's others, folks that are on the disinflationary side. What you're telling me here, uh, Nick, really makes me think, uh, that this is a powerful argument for disinflation, uh, for 2026 because, uh, the CPI, right, the official measurement of inflation is comprised of uh, 40% of it or so is comprised of shelter. It's by far the biggest input in the CPI calculation. And how is shelter calculated there? It's a um owner's equivalent rent, right? So, it's all basically on what you think, you know, you could rent a structure for. And what you're showing us here is that rental uh growth is the lowest it's been almost in the past 30 years outside of the the great financial crisis. Um and uh it looks like, you know, that is still disinflating right now. Um so this is a a strong argument that uh you know the value for shelter will be coming down or at least the growth in the value for shelter for sure. Um and because that's such a big component of the CPI that's going to start dragging the CPI down with it. And the the shelter inputs in the CPI are notoriously lagging. Um so you're giving us more realtimeish data here, Nick. Um, and so that that data is going to be hitting that CPI calculation as we go into 2026, probably all year throughout 2026. >> That's correct. And I want to clarify something for your viewers out there about what actually impacts the housing market in home prices in terms of inflation because I'm I'm seeing a lot of people try to argue right now that home prices are going to go up is what they say uh because of asset inflation, stocks going up, gold going up, Bitcoin going up. People are trying to argue that means home prices are going to go up. But there's only one type of in uh inflation, I should say two types of inflation that matter for the housing market. One is rental inflation, which we're just discussing right now, and the other is wage inflation. Rental inflation and wage inflation is all that matters. It's all anyone should look at if they're trying to project where home prices are going to head in the intermediate to long term. Gold doesn't impact home prices. Bitcoin doesn't impact home prices. Stocks don't impact home prices. Rent inflation and wage inflation impacts home prices. That's the way it's been for over a hundred years on the US housing market. And the reason is simple. Rent determines what investors can afford to buy homes for. Wages determine what home buyers can afford to buy homes for. And the fact is right now the buyer demand on the housing market, it's literally the lowest it's been in 30 years. So even with this crazy asset inflation in Bitcoin, gold and stocks, the demand to buy homes is at the lowest level in 30 years, that should be a cue to people that the housing market is based more on actually fundamentals than these other asset classes. And so, you know, not only are we seeing rent growth slow, we're also seeing wage growth slow. And I just like to show you this um chart that Indeed, the hiring uh the hiring website put together. They were showing how wage growth has moderated over the last several years. Indeed's wage growth tracker is down to 2.9% year-over-year. >> The Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker is 4.2% year-over-year. >> Um the employment for one second here. So, um I've been saying for years since 2022, um that uh the the great resignation, right, which was was enabled by um you know, companies firing people, but then they realized, oh my gosh, we need to hire these people back because the recession we expected to happen was a blip and and you miss it one. And then we sent checks to households, so people were feeling flush, right? Um people near the near retirement age saw their portfolio values skyrocket. So basically, people were like telling employers, "All right, take this job and shove it." Right? That's back when you had the 9.4% there. Um because labor finally had some bargaining power. But I said, "Look, this is probably going to be transitory uh to steal a word from the Fed and it's probably going to metastasize into the please don't fire me or please may I have my job back movement." And and that's exactly what this sort of seems to be showing we're on track to. >> 100%. I think you totally nailed it, Adam. uh there was a lot of kind of temporary stimulus during the pandemic. Uh artificial shortage of workers due to the lockdowns pushed wage growth up. Now that wage growth is essentially returned to normal. So we have normal wage growth. It's still, you know, historically it's decent. You know, it's okay. But the problem is this wage growth is not big enough to get us out from under this issue here. And this is the relationship of home prices to income. Home value to median income over the last 60 years in the US. Uh at the end of 2024, and it's similar in 2025, the home value to income ratio is 4.4. Typical home value of 364,000, median household income of 84,000. You could see that it's been really elevated the last three years, and it's even higher. That ratio of home prices to income is even higher than it was in 06. This is telling you there's a housing bubble, >> right? Home prices have gone up way faster than income. Home prices have also gone up way faster than rent. The home value to to rent ratio is also at one of the highest levels on record as well. So this is home value to rent. This is home value to income. And when you look at these two graphs, you understand the problem right now for the housing market. when rent and wage inflation is decelerating and disinflating. It means that rent and wage inflation is not going to come to save the day. Right? The one way that this bubble could decelerate by not crashing is if rents exploded, right? If rents exploded by 10% a year, that could mean that current home prices will last because uh the rent growth will go up, will cause more people to want to buy and more investors will want to buy. But that's not happening. And what we're now seeing is home prices going down in half the US as a result. So this isn't even like a theoretical thing anymore, right? In half the states in the US from July to August, home prices declined on Zillow's value index in half the states in the US. In 14 states, home values are down year-over-year. So we already actually have these prices dropping in half the states in the US. So this is already happening. And not surprisingly, the prices are dropping in areas that have the most inventory, that have the most unsold homes and also where builders built the most homes, and where most of the investors kind of moved into, they're now pulling out. And then you're having some boomerang migration as well. People moved to certain cities during the pandemic are now moving back. And we're seeing that home price deflation hit first in those areas. So, that's also an important thing for your viewers to understand. This isn't a theoretical exercise anymore. Home values are actually declining in half the states in the US on a month-to-month basis. So, this is already starting to happen. >> And and and and that's so I mean, you and I have been talking for years, Nick, and you're right. So much of what we thought academically was likely to happen is now starting to happen, right? So, it's not an academic exercise anymore. But I think up until relatively recently, people could say, "Yeah, but it's only in those markets that really were bubble markets, right? it's only in the Austin's of the world or the the Miamiis or whatever, right? And what you're saying now is no. Uh the contagion is spreading um and it's spreaded now to 50% of the states are now seeing negative prices. Right. So this this in increasing inventory phenomenon is not just the markets that were super redot. It it's increasingly becoming more normal markets. Now, there's still plenty. There's still half the country that hasn't seen price declines yet. But 50% is a lot. >> Yeah. Yeah. It it it it really is. And I think, you know, it started it started really in Austin, Texas, right, before anywhere else. Then it spread to Florida, right? And this was really a Texas, Florida thing for a while. Now it's also a Colorado thing. It's an Arizona thing. It's a Northern California thing. Northern California is starting to go down. Um Georgia's starting to go down. Tennessee is starting to go down, right? So, one by one, the dominoes are falling. And I think, you know, the question is over the next year into 2026, if you're a home buyer and investor, where are these prices going to go in your market? Because the one interesting thing we're finding here at Reventure App when we analyze the data down to like different neighborhoods is that even in a city that's going down firmly, like say Dallas, Dallas is going down. Um, there's huge variation by zip code. There's still some zip codes in Dallas that are going up actually even though Dallas is going down and then you have other areas in Dallas which are in a full-scale crash. So if someone is thinking about buying a house or selling a house, it's not enough to know kind of these macro fundamentals about like where is the US housing market going in the long run. You got to understand and zoom in what's going on in your neighborhood, what's going on your zip code because there's some crazy stuff happening in different parts of the US right now. >> So that's such a great point. um real estate. I mean, it's always local, local, local local, but um you know, we we in these interviews, we can really only talk so much uh we talk mostly about the macro because we can't obviously cover every neighborhood in every c county in the country within an hour. But you're saying, look, what really matters, especially if you're looking to transact is the micro. And we'll we'll talk about this near the end of the conversation, Nick, but that's exactly what Reventure App allows you to do, right? gives you visibility into what's happening at the micro level. >> Yeah. And can I just show I just want to show your users some quick examples because I again I know some people they read the headlines and they think, "Oh, there's no housing downturn." But I just want to show your users just how much and your viewers, Adam, just how much values are actually starting to drop in certain areas. And so if we just zoom in on an area like Houston, right? What's going on in Houston's housing market? This is measuring year-over-year decline in prices. We have zip codes down 13 to 16% year-over-year. Wow. >> On prices near downtown Houston. Double-digit declines in many of these zip codes. Meanwhile, near Rice University, values are going up, right? So, if you're buying a house here in a wealthy area, uh, where houses are transacting for 1.5 million, you're going to be like, "Oh, no, there's no downturn." But look at all the blue on this map. We have areas going down 16%. Now, if I go to Tampa, if I go to Tampa, St. Pete, another big metro, what do we see? If we go to Penllis County, this is where St. Pete and Clearwater are. 18% year-over-year decline in prices already. 14% year-over-year decline. 13% year-over-year decline. We have double-digit declines all over Tampa, St. Pete. And that's just the important thing to understand is like in a lot of neighborhoods, this is getting serious. This is getting real. This is actually already a crash taking place. in many different neighborhoods around the US. And if you know you are a home buyer investor, you do have to understand if that's happening in your area. >> Yeah. U so great demonstration of how you can use the app to see what's going on in your area. But but really it gets to a bigger story. Um which I want to mention I want to get to in a sec, but real quick, can you pull up the the national chart there again showing price declines? >> Um because before we turn the camera on, Nick, I think you showed me the same chart I want to say maybe at the beginning of the year. So, uh, do you want me to show a map or a graph? >> The map. >> Oh, you want me to show a map? All right, let's look at a map. >> Yeah. Um, so show me the national map there. Yeah. By state. >> Um, and maybe this is it. But you you were showing me the map I think at the beginning of the year and we we saw that like maybe 10% of the states >> Yeah. >> So So here's a graph. So this is through August 2025, everyone, right? Like this is month- over-month home value growth August 2025. So the states in blue are declining month over month. And you could see from July to August, according to this data from Zillow, half of the states roughly had a home value drop. But if we were to go to January, look at look at it in January. Almost every state in January this year, month- over-month values were still going up, often by a lot. Only a handful of states in January had month-month value declines. And in terms of year-over-year declines earlier this year, uh there was only Florida pretty much that had year-over-year declines in January 2025. Now, in August, year-over-year declines are in 14 states. Mon-over-month declines are in 24 states. So, this just shows the spread, right? How it's spread in the last 8 months to more areas. And again, you know, we're not saying values are cheap all of a sudden, but they are deflating in about half the US. >> Great. And that's what I wanted folks to see. This is a great visualization of that point where you can just see the contagion continuing to spread as time goes on. And of course, the momentum right now is still towards continued disinflation, right? So, an important trend will be when we start seeing, you know, there being fewer and fewer month- over-month declines, but I don't know if that's going to be in six months, Nick, or in three years. Um, but we'll be we'll be measuring with you on this channel as we do that. So, let me get to the the this larger question I want to make sure folks are are appreciating here. So to your point there about people saying, "Hey, look, um huge deficit spending, big debts, um people are finally waking up to the fact that uh the pursing power of our fiat currency is is is getting devalued. Um and uh uh uh you know, now all of a sudden gold's taken off, Bitcoin's taken off, everyone's realizing hard assets are the thing to be in. So real estate, that's a hard asset, right? So home prices aren't going to go down, they're going to go up, right? And you've just walked us through the logic of why that actually doesn't really matter in the housing market calculation here and what does. But what's what's been interesting about this is is I've been hearing that like um well, look, you know, the stock market's booming. Um there's this, you know, huge wealth effect that's being created from that. Aren't we aren't we going to see that get reflected in the housing market? Right? And what's interesting is to a certain extent I think we are which is the transactions that uh you know where we see growth here seems to be in that top 10% that is doing just great because they own the majority of the assets. Um and those assets have appreciated tremendously through all the the current policies that are going on. Um, and you know, I've talked about on this channel a lot recently that the top 10% is driving 50% of the consumer spending. Now, when it comes to real estate, it's a little bit different, right? There's only so many homes that a rich person can can buy and want to spend time in or whatnot, right? So, the vast majority of the transactions in the housing market, um, in theory at least, um, are going to be done by, you know, the bottom 90%. Um and I think what we're seeing here is that um we're still seeing you know price appreciation going on uh at at that high affluent end of the market but below that that's where all the carnage is happening. Um so am I capturing this correctly which is like yes you know real estate's very micro it's very local but in many ways um it it's it's a tale of two stories here. If you live in an affluent uh uh zip code, things are life's probably pretty good like the places you showed us in in Dallas. But if you live in one with regular people, you know, someone making the an average income for the country, things are probably deteriorating. >> That's spot on, right? So, I think there's a statistic on the average age of home uh home buyers, and I think that's up to around 51 years old, I believe in 2024 was the average age of a home buyer was 51. >> You're kidding me. >> It used to be 38 years old. Um, so one thing we're seeing is of the very low transaction volume that exists, you know, the sales are down 25% from pre- pandemic. It's a higher composition of older baby boomer households make up a higher composition of the transactions today >> than they did 5 years ago >> because they're the ones who can afford to transact. >> They can afford to transact. And so, you know, I think this is very interesting on a couple levels. One is the point you just made, Adam, is like it's very locationdriven the type of house. If you're in a zip code where the average house sells for $2 million, demand is buoyant because of the stock market, maybe, right? But it's a very limited scope. Most other zip codes are not going to be impacted by that. Most other neighborhoods are not going to be impacted by that. But I also have another theory. I think the average transaction prices are being artificially inflated right now. Like when you see Red Fin and the N report like their median sale price, that's a median sale price based on the composition of buyers today, which is artificially um segmented towards older baby boomer home buyers that are more apt and likely to buy a more expensive home. So, another thing I think that we're going to see in the next year or two is when prices and mortgage rates drop enough and the transaction composition um goes more to a normal level, you're going to see the transaction prices drop on average. And that's going to take a lot of people by surprise >> uh when that happens. >> Interesting. Um and and one of the reasons why I raise this for a couple reasons, Nick. One is just the economy and our society are increasingly following kind of the K-shaped um dynamic where you've got a top few that are doing increasingly better and and a bottom majority that are doing increasingly worse. Uh and I think we're seeing that right here now in the housing market. But also it does show how vulnerable the housing market would be to a material correction in the stock market. Right? So, let's say for a second, no guarantees, I have no idea if it's going to happen or not, but let's say the current concerns about there being a bubble in in the market because of the AI stocks comes to pass and there's some material downward repricing of of of those stocks. You know, they make up such a huge percent of the overall indices, they're overowned in and most of the ETFs out there. Let's just assume for a moment the stock market took like a 25 30% correction. The negative wealth effect that would have on the housing market from those affluent home buyers who are driving so much of the action right now would be huge, wouldn't it? >> It would. It'd really affect the sales side. It would affect the sales side of the market. So, you'd see a lot of people, particularly in states like California, you would see a lot of people uh be forced to sell their homes or uh when they do sell their homes, uh be more inclined to cut the price quickly to effectuate the transaction. You know, I talked to a lot of realtors um day-to-day and the one thing I am hearing and that you're definitely seeing if you're a home buyer, right, is that yeah, there's more listings, more price cuts, but so many sellers are still disconnected from reality. So many sellers are still listing at like crazy high rates. And you know, they're they're think they're seeing what their neighbor sold for 3 years ago and thinking they can sell for it today when the market price is 20% lower. And the house will just sit on the market for 6 months. They'll play these games like they'll delist it, put it back on the market. Sometimes they'll delist put it back on the market like 5% higher and you're like, "What are you even thinking?" And then they'll cut the price. They just play these games and then they'll maybe list it for rent and then take it off the market for rent, list it for sale. Um it's it's it's kind of almost funny to watch, right? uh that and it's actually not funny because it's actually a big issue in the housing market this bid ass spread between sellers and buyers. But it's almost funny to watch like these sellers try to like come to reality about what their house is worth because it's a very emotional thing, right? And this is what buyers should understand about sellers is that they don't know either. They don't know that the market has come to reality and a lot of them might know but also don't care. >> Right? So, some segment of sellers, maybe half of sellers might just be listing to list, right? And they might be okay with taking their home off the market, but where where prices go is really determined by the other half of sellers who who do want to sell their house. And I think if the stock market were to correct 30%, you would just see more people list their home and be serious about listing their home, right? You'd see more people list their home and list at a price to sell rather than playing all these different games, right? And so I think it could a stock market correction is something that could cause home prices to drop uh more significantly in a short period of time. But I think in the long run, I just want to say in the long run, I don't actually think stock prices influence home prices. You're going to see home prices in the long run uh go to the levels dictated by income and rent. And that can happen either slowly over time, could happen over five or six years incrementally, or it could happen fast if there's a big recession. Right. >> Right. So, you know, I I I mentioned this just because I want to point out to folks that this weakness that Nick is seeing here in the jobs market, in the housing market, I is happening at a time where the affluent homeowner is doing fantastic. So, all I wanted to say is if if there's something that compromises uh the fantasticness of the affluent home buyer, that that could have a pretty meaningful impact on the market. Um, >> can I just show you one more thing, Adam? I I actually looked up the number >> and this is data that comes from uh Apollo data. >> Yeah. No, it's not 51. The median age of home buyers is 56 today. So the median age of home buyers was 56 in 2024. Prior to the pandemic, it was 46. So again, I just want your audience to think about when when when you hear about the reported closing price, the median sale price went up, right? 1% or 2% year-over-year is I think what the N is saying. understand that this is through an increasingly older home buyer demographic buying the homes. This isn't going to last. At some point, when mortgage rates and prices drop enough, you are going to see more regular buyers come in and the median age of buyers will drop, which means the median net worth of buyers will also drop and the median income will drop and you're going to just see a more um realistic composition of homes sold. And that's just going to cause prices to go down or I should say reported sale prices to go down on their own. >> All right? And so there's really only two ways that that can happen and you have ruled out at least for the foreseeable future that it's going to be because um rent growth goes up and that's because wages go up, right? And so the only other factor uh is prices come down, right? So what is going to cause that? And if I've taken good notes from talking to you over the years, Nick, it's primarily due to one thing which is inventory. And that's really been the name of the game here, right? where um in the in the the markets that are showing those declines, those year-over-year and now month- over-month declines um are ones in which inventory is building and the basically the ones that are still appreciating, those are ones where inventory is still pretty tight. Right. >> That's exactly right. It's an inventory story. How many homes are listed for sale compared to the long-term average? Is there a lot of supply on the market or is there not so much supply on the market? That is the number one thing that is dictating home price growth right now. And I actually put together a graph uh using data from Reventure a week ago and I was comparing the the different inventory growth in different markets versus home price growth. And it's very clear Adam uh you know the graph is very clear that when you isolate inventory that is ultimately what's moving the market right now. So, if we take a look here at all the different states in the US, right? Where are states uh where are prices going down year-over-year? We said it's 14 states. Now, why are they going down in these states? Well, let's just take a little like little look at this to kind of just prove this to your viewers to see how important this data point is. If we compare the home value growth in the last year to the inventory surplus or def deficit, how much higher or lower inventory is, what do you see? My goodness, it's an extremely strong relationship. The more inventory there is in these states in the top left, we're talking Florida, we're talking Texas, we're talking DC, we're talking Arizona, Hawaii, Colorado. Excess inventory. What's happening? Home prices are dropping comparatively. In the bottom right, we have states like Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, New York. Prices are still going up in these states. Why are prices still going up in these states? There's a 20 to 30 to 40% inventory shortage. So, this is just the proof, right? Like, if you were wondering what's influencing the housing market, are prices going to go up or down in my area over the next year? It's based on the inventory. You need to know how many homes are for sale in your market and how that compares to the long-term norm. This is extremely tight relationship. And so, a big question in 2026 is how much inventory are we going to see hit the national housing market? How much inventory going to see hit the national housing market? is currently in the US there's 1.1 million homes for sale as of September. Now you can see this inventory is way up from where it was a couple years ago. We're up to 1.1 million homes for sale. Nationally, we're still below pre- pandemic. September 2019, we had 1.22 million homes for sale. So the inventory, it's grown a lot the last two years, but it still got to grow. You know, it's got to keep growing, right? to affectuate like a national like a real national decline in prices. This inventory has got to keep growing over the next year or two. And I believe it will. I think inventory is going to grow over the next year or two due to the rental deflation, due to the fact that fewer and fewer people are going to have 3% mortgages every quarter, every month. Um, but we just need to see more inventory on the market to effectuate that u decline in prices nationally. You can see here venture app we're forecasting minus0.8% 8% over the next 12 months nationally. So that's our national forecast over the next 12 months. So we still kind of have that forecast of flat prices slightly down. But depending on where inventory goes in the next year, that forecast can change. And so that's kind of the baseline right now. But of course, it's a very bifurcated market because inventory, if we were to look at where is there a lot of inventory, where are there a lot of homes for sale? Colorado, Tennessee, Tennessee is now the number one state for inventory in the US. It's through the roof. Utah, Arizona, inventory is through the roof. These markets have a higher likelihood of prices dropping in the Northeast and Midwest. We still have an inventory shortage in these markets, which is why values are still going up. >> All right. And let me um let me steal a screen share for you for a sec here, Nick. >> Um so I'm going to pull up a chart that you had tweeted out the other day. So, you know, Okay. So, what are some of the things that could cause additional inventory to come onto the market? I mean, there's a whole bunch of things, right? Obviously, big job losses would would would probably force a lot of that and whatnot. Um, but but short of massive layoffs, short of a a bursting of the AI stock bubble, whatever, what what are some things that could really accelerate that? And one might be uh lower mortgage rates, right? that as mortgage rates go down um all of a sudden it becomes a little bit easier for people to transact. Um we we've heard the story about people being you know trapped in their or locked into their you know 3% mortgages and um I think it's been a reality right but to this chart here um we now have more or just about more uh 6% plus mortgages out there than we have sub 3% mortgages. And to me, what this says is there's a, you know, a material and growing percentage of homeowners now, um, who, you know, aren't trapped in a 3% mortgage and would be willing to transact more um, if mortgage rates became a little bit more affordable. So, you know, people were saying, look, mortgage rates are going to have to get really low before you start freeing up those sub 3% uh, mortgage people and unfreezing the market. I don't know if you need to get down in that direction anymore given how many 6% mortgages there are now. >> That's a great way to think about it. So what this graph is showing, right, is that the amount of people with a higher mortgage rate is spiking, right? So is only 7% of people in 2022 had a mortgage rate over 6% of existing mortgage holders. Now that's uh as of the second quarter of 2025, that's 20%. So wow, we've had almost a tripling in the amount of people in the last 3 years with a mortgage rate over 6% which is just due to the fact that still there's some level of transactions and refinances taking place right in the current mortgage rate environment. Meanwhile, those with a sub3% mortgage rate has gone down from 24.6% to 20.4%. And I believe by the end of 2025, there's going to be more people with an mortgage rate above 6% than below 3%. And I think what that means, right, is that as time passes, you're going to see more pressure to sell just in general in the housing market. The interest rate burden for existing mortgage holders is just going to incrementally go up every month, every quarter. And so, you're going to have fewer and fewer people clutching onto their cheap mortgage rate and more and more people with a mortgage that they can't afford who are going to be more inclined to sell. We're actually seeing that happen right now in a lot of homebuilder communities. A lot of homebuilder communities, people bought in the last 3 years, they got a one or two-year mortgage rate buy down uh to buy them down to a cheaper rate. Now those mortgage rate buy downs are stepping up to the actual 6 7% rate. And you're starting to see a lot of pressure on people to sell in some of these uh homebuilder communities. And I think that could be a preview of what happens across the market more broadly over the next two years as we just see that share of mortgage rates over 6% continue to grow, continue to grow. >> Yeah. So I I totally agree with that. Um so the weight of those 6% mortgages are just going to weigh more and more as time goes on. But a lot of people have said, "Hey, no, Fed's right to the rescue. It's going to cut rates. That's going to bring mortgage rates down, and that's going to save the the housing market." What I think it might do is it might unlock a ton of transaction volume that actually brings home prices down because sellers can finally find a buyer for their home. >> Yeah. And I've thought a lot about that. What What would happen theoretically if mortgage rates drop to say 5%. Right now they're at 6.3%. What if they dropped to five? Well, if they dropped to five, the monthly payment to buy would go down from 27 2700 2750 a month to probably like 2500 a month. You would definitely unlock more transactions. The thing is most people before they buy their new house need to find a buyer for their current house. >> Right. >> Right. So when you think about the dynamics there, especially in a market that's already overs supplied, if we all of a sudden get way more sellers, which you need to get more sellers before you get more buyers in this situation, we get way more sellers, it's probably going to cause inventory to just go up really fast. So you're right, Adam, that could be an unintended consequence of mortgage rates dropping to say, you know, 5%. If that were to happen, um, you would see probably a lot more sellers hit the market and those sellers would need to price at a level where they can find a buyer before they can buy a new house. And I think that could drive values down further. >> So that that was my exact uh hypothesis there. And um uh you know, folks have been saying or there's been a chorus of folks saying, you know, hey, what this market needs is lower mortgage prices uh to to rescue the housing market. And by rescue, they mean get prices moving back up again. Um, where I think you and I are looking at it and saying, "No, what's going to rescue this market is going to be lower prices. That's what's actually going to bring this, it's what's going to normalize this market." >> Yeah. And the proof for that is the homebuilders, right? We actually already have an example of it. Home builders have cut prices significantly. Uh LAR, the second largest home builder in America, has cut their average selling price by about 24%. Over the last three years, LAR >> So they've shown to move inventory, you've got to bring price down. Yeah. >> Yeah. So, you know, and this is a really interesting example, right? >> Sorry to interrupt, but that that's that's 24% decline, but that's on top of the mortgage buy downs and the other >> No, that's it's it's inclusive. >> Oh, is it? It's all inclusive. Okay. >> It's a sale price net of incentives. So on deliveries >> in the uh third quarter of 2025, LAR's average selling price net of incentives was 383,000. That's the lowest it's been at least going back to 2018. >> Wow. >> So some some element of that is price cuts. Some element of that's the mortgage rate buy downs and closing costs. >> But yeah, they were selling at 491,000 in August 2022. They're now selling at 383. So, LAR LAR is showing what has to happen for the housing market. I mean, this this graph is kind of amazing because it's showing you um America's second largest builder working in real time to sell homes. You know, their job is to sell homes, not to sit and wait, you know, and relist in 9 months. And to sell homes, you need to cut the price. Now, this is the amazing thing. You could see here a Lenard's average selling price on new orders, the green line, kind of similar to the average selling price on new deliveries. It's actually dropped by even more. New order average selling price of 367,000 in the third quarter 2025. Look at what's happened to Lenar's orders. Lenar's orders have skyrocketed. Lenar's order book is actually two times bigger today than it was in 2019. >> Wow. >> So, this is proof. I mean, if someone just wanted some proof about like, oh, how, you know, how do we know that, you know, Nick and Adam, you guys are right about prices being the issue? Well, look at this, right? Um, Lenar has cut their net selling price 25%. What's happened? Their order book has exploded, >> right? You want the market to get better, you got to cut prices. Um, and and and those those reduced prices of the home builders have now gotten to the point where on average, they're lower than the average price of an existing home. Right. >> That's right. >> How bananas is that? Right. I'm I'm I'm going to pay more for an older home. >> And it's it's a really interesting kind of um you know segmentation again of how the housing market works, right? So builders are in the market of selling homes. They're not in the market of sitting on homes. So they will cut the price, move the needle, give the incentives to make that house sell. So it's that's kind of the real time test case of what's going on. And builders have cut prices about 12 13% from peak overall. LAR's cut 25% including incentives but 12 13% from peak is what builders have cut existing prices are up I think about five or six% from 3 years ago so the existing resale prices keep going up and again I think part of that's a bit of a phantom illusion given the fact that the comp composition of buyers in the resale market is shifting more and more to baby boomers. So it it could just be the mix of houses selling and the buyer threshold of who's buying can afford to pay more and so the average price is going up. But the point is still this a new house today you can buy a new house for 5% cheaper than an existing house. That just is has no historical precedent. We have never seen that happen before. And you can see that on this graph which compares the difference between buying a new house versus an existing house. And the orange bars show that normally it's about 20% more expensive to buy an existing house. Actually, in 2014, 2015, it was like 30% more expensive to buy an existing house. Today, it's 5% cheaper to buy an existing house, or I should say a new house than an existing house as of July 2025. And you could see June and July. This is the biggest discount we've ever seen for new homes compared to resale homes. We also had some points in 2024 where new homes got cheaper. There's no historical precedent for this, right? And I believe what this is showing is it's the builders showing you where the market needs to go and it's the existing resale owners slow to pick that up. >> Okay. Yeah. And look to your point about sellers, you know, sellers are human. Humans make emotional decisions. Um, you know, a very common thing in in economics is anchoring, right? Once once you're used to a price, you don't want that price to go down, and you'll tell yourself all sorts of reasons why it it it should be worth what you paid for it. Uh, and you'll ignore a lot of, you know, new data that might try to convince you otherwise. But, of course, you can only do that for so long. So, at some point here that's going to break. Nick, it sounds like you think what's going to break that is rising inventory. Um, we're seeing that. So, this is where we're we're getting to that disinflationary deflationary vortex that you mentioned at the beginning. Um, so that's what you expect to go gone from here. How how much are you looking at the softening labor market and worrying that that could add fuel to the fire on the way down here if it if it continues to worsen? softening labor markets definitely not a positive for the housing market and you know in terms of how it actually plays out with prices. I think it's it's difficult to say. You know, at this point, hiring has collapsed, right? The hiring rate in August 2025 was the lowest we've seen since 2008, I believe, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. >> Indeed's job opening index is now almost back to prepandemic levels. ADP is reporting contractions in employment, and Americans in surveys are saying they feel the least confident about finding a new job if they were to get laid off from their current job in decade. So, it's pretty clear that the labor market on the hiring side has really slowed and might even be in a recession. I think the impact there is on home buyer demand. So, if someone was thinking about taking the plunge at a high price and a six and a half% mortgage rate to buy a house, and then all of a sudden they see weakness in the labor market, they see their neighbor get laid off or they see their co-orker get laid off or they hear about from their friend how difficult it is to find a job, they might just wait longer because financially it's cheaper to rent than it is to buy. And if I don't feel confident in my career, and by the way, if I have a white-collar job, I'm saying to myself, not only is there some short-term issues in the labor market, I'm hearing CEOs say like CEO of Ford said that half of all white collar jobs are going to be gone due to AI. Now, who knows if that's true, but you have these big corporate CEOs just not hiding it at all that they basically probably want to trim their workforce in the white collar industry. So I I think that's going to lead to lower demand or at least put a cap on the rebound in demand, right, is the fact that people feel so insecure in the white collar industry especially about um holding on to their jobs. What we haven't seen though, we have not seen mass firings yet. I mean, we've seen some companies like Microsoft do big layoffs, but we haven't seen like the economywide mass firings. Initial unemployment claims are still low, right? So, we don't have a ton of people doing initial claims. More and more people are doing continuing claims. We don't have many people doing initial claims. So, we're not yet seeing the pressure on sales or on I should say listings, right? So, if the fire if the firings explode eventually, you would then see more people list their house in a panic, right? You see more mortgage defaults, more distressed sellers. >> We don't have a ton of distressed sellers right now. the mortgage default rate has crept up back kind of closer to prepandemic norms, but we don't have a ton of distressed sellers yet. So, it's kind of this nuanced situation with the labor market that I think explains why demand to buy is so low. And I actually just want to show a chart to your viewers on that so they understand how low the demand to buy is right now. the existing home sales data from the National Association of Realtors. We were at 6.7 million annualized home sales in 2020. We're at 4 million annualized home sales in 2025. Literally, we're scraping along the bottom. The lowest buyer demand since 2008 to 2010. So, that's the situation on demand right now. Why hasn't demand gone up by more with the increase in inventory? Why hasn't demand gone up by more at the slight decrease in mortgage rates? Maybe there is a situation here where the insecurity in the job market is putting a lid on just how much these sales can go back up. >> Yeah. Okay. I mean, it's those low buyer demand levels um correlate with uh the highest unaffordability uh metrics that we've seen, right? So, I mean, at the end of the day, it just might be a sense of like, look, that's just where the marginal buyer lives, and until prices, you know, start coming downwards, we're going to be just living on the bottom of that barrel. >> I think you're I think you're right. It is an affordability story. Mainly, it's mainly an affordability story. I think there's a lot of people out there where if prices were 30% lower would buy. Again, builders are showing that. But uh I think on the margins um a weak hiring market, a weak job market is going to put some downward pressure overall in the housing market as well. >> Yeah. Yeah. So I guess as low as it is, don't think it can't go lower now. Will it? We don't know. We'll see. And uh who knows what's going to happen with the employment market. Again though, kind of to my point about how the high-end, we're seeing this weakness in the housing market, even with the high-end doing as amazingly well as they're doing right now. Um if we were to have uh real job shedding coming up um that would have a you know right right we're basically we're scraping the bottom of the barrel on buyer demand right now and that's at 4.3% unemployment which is relatively a really low unemployment reading. Right. So were that to go up even further man we might find that the bottom of the barrel is substantially lower than where we think it is today. >> Yeah. Uh and on that point, I I I think for your viewers, it's important to understand how impactful actually the unemployment rate is to the mortgage market, mortgage defaults and prices. I just want to show this quick graph. It's actually kind of amazing. Um comparing the unemployment rate, the blue line, to the mortgage default rate, the orange line, >> they're almost the same. >> It's the same, right? It's the same. So I it tracks they track each other almost identically since the mid 1990s, right? And what I think is interesting is you see kind of okay the unemployment rates ticked up, the mortgage default rate has ticked up as well, but it's kind of like they're both kind of let's just say normalish slightly. >> Um, but I actually want to show your viewers what happened in 2020. The mortgage default rate went to 8.2%. during the pandemic. That was almost as high as the mortgage default rate in 2010 2009 during the GFC. However, despite this increase in mortgage defaults during the pandemic, which was almost as high as the last crash, we did not see foreclosure inventory really go up. So, we had the big spike in mortgage defaults, no increase in foreclosure inventory. Foreclosure inventory actually went down. Why was that? Well, they did mor uh forbearance programs. They basically banned foreclosures for a couple years during the pandemic and then even since then they've had all these knock-on uh programs which have basically tried to stop the foreclosures from happening, cure the mortgage defaults. A lot of those are now expiring or have expired through early October. So, this is the tell your viewers two things. First of all, we did have a huge spike in mortgage defaults during the pandemic. It never caused foreclosures to go up because the government intervened. So if you another reason why prices are so high is the government intervened to stop foreclosures and homes hitting the market. >> Yeah. Which we've seen in all sorts of other industries. When the government gets heavily involved, prices get way distorted. We've seen it in healthcare. We've seen it in education. I mean, we can just rattle the list off. Housing's no different. >> But another thing I would just interpret here, foreclosure inventory, according to the mortgage bankers association, half a percent of all mortgages in the second quarter of 2025. Historically low. Historically low. this is not going to stay this low. Um I feel pretty confident in projecting right at some point foreclosures are going to go up more. We're likely to see that unemployment rate start to go up more as the hiring, you know, slow slowdown continues. That's going to lead to more mortgage defaults, which should lead to more foreclosures. And so in the absence of foreclosures, prices are dropping now in half of America. So what happens if we see foreclosures eventually go up? It could lead to more downward pressure. Yeah. Well, that's just more inventory, right? And generally inventory that's trading probably at a little discount to whatever the market is because the bank wants to just get rid of it, right? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Um I'm curious too. Um we're seeing mortgage delinquencies there. Was that delinquencies or defaults on that chart? >> It's listed as mortgage default rate. >> Okay. Mortgage default rate. Um okay. So, we're seeing it start to creep up. I mean, not not much, but it's bottomed and it's it's looks like it's starting to trend upwards here. Um, you've probably seen the same charts that I have. Um, Nick from the New York Fed that that now that student debt has gone back into repayment. It was the last major form of consumer debt that that was removed from the forbearance schedule. Um, now that that's gone back into repayment, um, you've got millions of borrowers are now having to pay that. Um, it's the one form of debt you can't get out of. and if if you don't pay it, the government will take it out of your paycheck, right? And so what we're seeing is is there's a number of people who are just saying, look, I I can't do this. I I you know, my cost of living kind of expanded over the years while this was on moratorum and I just don't have any free cash flow to pay it. Right? So, you're seeing huge delinquency um a huge spike in delinquencies in um uh payment repayment of these student loans, but you're also seeing a spike in in delinquencies in credit cards and auto loans and and even in mortgages to a certain extent because it's sort of a knock-on effect, right? As as as they're robbing from Peter to pay Paul, okay, I'm going to pay my student loan because I have to. I might be late this month on my other debt payments, right? So um now defaults uh are lagging after delinquencies. Delinquencies are first, delinquencies are first. How concerned are you by this kind of propagation of potential debt delinquency and default um triggered by the repayment of student loans and how that might impact the housing market. >> Sure. And before I answer that, I just want to actually clarify, Adam, the mortgage rate I was showing is a summed up delinquency rate of 0 to 30 days, 30 to 60, 60 to 90, 90 plus and serious delinquencies and foreclosures. So it's a it's an all-in. So it would include delinquencies on the shorter term as well. Just wanted to clarify that. >> Okay. So that number is low much lower than the short end would be because it's got all the long duration elements in it. Yeah, it basically that data from the MBA, mortgage bankers association tracks like mortgage delinquency zero to 30-day and then like 30 to 90day and then 90day plus and then uh serious delinquencies and then that's the sum. So basically 4% is the sum of all the different mortgages in different stages of delinquencies and defaults. >> Okay, got it. >> So just want to clarify that. >> Okay, go ahead and deliver your answer here. >> Yeah. Yeah. To answer your question though, I I think it's a great point. I think student loan defaults are what 14% now 15% something crazy. >> Yeah, it went from like 0% to that. Yeah. >> And I think how many million uh do we know how many million borrowers it is in nominal terms? >> Yeah, I think it's uh I want to say it's something like um maybe like 50 million borrowers, but I think like 10 million of them right out of the gate said I can't pay. >> Right. So you have 10 million borrowers saying I can't pay whose credit is getting uh destroyed. And I think there was recent reports about how the average credit score in the US is now tanking uh because of this. So what's going to the impact going to be on the housing market? I'm going to say on the for sale market, I don't know if there's an immediate impact. I think of the people who aren't paying their student debt at all. I don't know how many of them would be buying a house in the next couple years. However, again, I think this has going to have a big impact on the rental market, right? Um, so you know, a lot of these people are probably renters who are now in default on their student loans, and that's just like another financial headwind, um, another payment to be added. So, some of them will start repaying, others won't. Um, if your credit gets damaged severely enough, maybe you have trouble renting a new apartment. Certainly, if you were to ever apply for a mortgage, you would have issues doing that. I think we're probably going to see more people move in with their friends and family as a result of this for those who are on their um, defaulted student loan borrowers. So, I think it's just a headwind for maybe the rental market more than the forale market, but ultimately that's a headwind for the market in and of itself. Fewer people on the margins demanding uh new housing units, occupying new housing units. So, it also could be another thing helping to explain the rental uh disinflation we're seeing this year. >> Okay. All right. Well, Nick, look, I'm I'm looking at the time here and um I hate to wrap this up, but if we can, what's your parting bit of advice here for the following three constituencies? um aspiring home buyers, uh home owners that might be thinking that they might want to or need to sell within the next couple years, and then real estate investors. >> Most important advice that I can give all those groups is you need to understand what's going on in your zip code, in your neighborhood in terms of your housing market trend. If you're a buyer, right, and you're buying in a zip code where values are already down 10% in the last year, inventory is through the roof, sellers are cutting prices, that's amazing news. you have such leverage. There's already a crash playing out in that market. You can negotiate hard with sellers. You can probably get a much better deal than you even think if you're in a zip code like that. Conversely, if you're in a zip code where prices are still going up, where there's no inventory, where we still think values are going to increase on Reventure App, you need to understand that and understand that waiting in the next year is not going to really help you much in an area where there's still upward pressure on prices. So, really understand the data for your market. If you're a seller, it's similar advice. Even more so for sellers, right? If you're coming to list your home, you don't want to be blindsided by what's going to happen in your market. I'm talking to some realtors down here in Nashville. There's sellers here that are blindsided >> when they go to list their home because they hear, "Oh my gosh, Nashville, the best growth market in America. Oh yeah, I'm going to list my home and sell it quickly." They don't realize that prices are already dropping and there's record inventory and then their house six sits for 6 months. Um, having that information upfront will help you guys as sellers make a better decision on if you want to sell and then how to list your house. Uh, if your market's declining, do not overlist your home. If your market's declining and you need to sell, come to market at a more realistic price because uh, it's you're going to pay for it in the long run if you try to overlist. And then if you're an investor, look, it's a tough market with where mortgage rates are and what's going on with rents. I will say there are some markets where cap rates are higher, where there's still good population growth. Every venture app, we have a new long-term growth score that can help you identify markets over the next 5 to 10 years that should appreciate by more. But just a quick, you know, quick summation, there's a lot of markets uh some markets in the southeast and Midwest where the cap rates are higher that there's still kind of upward momentum in the market, strong population growth, that could still be some good places to buy today. >> All right, fantastic. Thank you, Nick. All right, most important question. For folks that would like to follow you and your work in between now and the next time you come on this channel, where should they go? >> Yeah, they should go to uh ww.reventure.app. Uh that's the application that I invented uh and built to help home buyers understand the market. We have a home price forecast score that's going to help you understand down to your zip code where home values are going. I'm showing you guys right now uh the Reventure app program. We also actually just launched a mobile app where you can see all of this data on your phone, on Apple, Android. You can download the mobile app and check out that 12-month forecast. It's under a premium plan for $49 a month. That 12-month forecast is really going to help anchor you in understanding where values are heading in the future. You can also check me out on YouTube, Reventure Consulting. I come out with three videos a week educating people on the housing market and economy. >> All right, fantastic. And first off, folks, I cannot say enough positive things about the Reventure app. if you are in the market for any sort of real estate transaction, um it's a mustave. And if you're just a real estate, you know, wonk, uh it's a it's a fantastic tool to have. Um Nick, when I edit this, I will put up the links to reventure.app and your YouTube channel here so folks know where to go. Folks, the links will also be in the description below this video. All right. All right. Well, in wrapping up here, everyone, please extend your heartfelt thanks to Nick for giving us so much of his time and expertise and data here in this discussion by hitting the like button and then clicking on the subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next to it. Uh just a quick reminder, we are less than a week away from Thoughtful Money's fall online conference. It's going to be this Saturday, October 18th. Uh if you can't watch live, don't worry. Everybody who buys a ticket is going to get sent replay videos of the entire event, all the presentations, all the the live Q&A sessions. Uh so anyways, if you haven't bought your ticket yet, run now. Don't walk. Uh buy it at thoughtfulmoney.com. And if you are a premium subscriber to our Substack, make sure you enter the code that I've been sending you that you can use to get an additional $50 off of the ticket price. Uh lastly, um you know, these decisions around uh you know, whether to buy, sell, list, whatever a house, they're big financial decisions for most people out there. In some cases, might be the biggest financial single financial decision you make. If you'd like to get some help in considering those decisions, um, and, you know, taking into account all your other financial goals and financial profile, highly recommend you get that guidance from a good professional financial adviser. If you've got a good one who's advising you already on that, fantastic. But if not, if you'd like to talk to one of the ones that Thoughtful Money endorses, these are the firms you see with me on this channel week in and week out. You can schedule a free discussion with them over at thoughtfulmoney.com. Uh, it just takes you a couple seconds to fill out the form there. Once you do, the firms will be in touch with you right away. Uh there's no commitments involved. It's just a service they offer to help as many people as possible. Nick, my friend, it's always great to have you on here. Um we'll have you back on in a couple months to give us an audible on where things are going on this uh disinflationary, possibly deflationary vortex that you think is going to get started. But just again, my friend, really appreciate you. >> Thank you, Adam. It was great great talking to you. >> All right. Thanks so much, buddy. And everybody else, thanks so much for watching.