Interest Rates Are EXPLODING Higher!! (What You Need To Know)
Summary
Precious Metals: Bullish stance on gold and silver, with gold viewed as a hedge against rising counterparty risk and silver expected to outperform in percentage terms.
Gold Drivers: Emphasis that gold’s move is tied more to geopolitical and counterparty risk than to inflation or dollar moves, reinforcing its long-term purchasing power role.
Silver Momentum: Silver is riding gold’s coattails, showing stronger upside; the speaker initiated a position weeks ago and is holding as the trend strengthens.
Yield Curve Steepener: Advocates a steepener trade (long 2-year futures, short 10-year futures) to benefit in both bear and bull steepening scenarios, citing historical rate volatility.
US Equities: Expects the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dip to be short-lived with potential new highs within a week; would fade the sell-off in the near term.
Rates and Macro: Views the spike in long-end yields as driven by mechanical positioning and shifting growth/inflation expectations rather than debt/deficit fears.
Dollar and JGBs: Sees “sell America” and DXY weakness as likely transitory, with Japan’s bond moves better explained by nominal GDP shifts than by debt narratives.
No Single-Stock Pitch: No specific tickers were promoted; focus centered on metals, macro rate positioning, and short-term equity rebound.
Transcript
Hello fellow Robo Capitals. Hope you're well. So, we've got interest rates exploding higher, not just in the United States, but in Japan as well. It's getting a lot of press. Is this the sell America or maybe sell Japan and America trade all over again because of the tariffs? Let's dive into exactly what's happening. Try to put the pieces of the puzzle together. We're going to start by going over to CNBC and they asked the question. Here we go. Right in the title. This is sell America. Well, they're not even asking the question. They're making a statement. This is sell America. US dollar treasury prices tumble and gold spikes as globe fleas US assets. You know what's amazing is how short the mainstream media and social media's memory actually is. If if I go back to April, wasn't there something called Well, I call it retardation day. That's the most appropriate way to describe it. But wasn't there this this liberation day thing? And and oh yeah, what what happened back then? Oh, that's right. It was sell America. Remember sell the US dollar. Interest rates spike. Oh my gosh. The Fed has lost control of the long end of the curve. Everyone's dumping treasuries. Dump. China's dumping treasuries. They're, you know, they hate Trump. And then what happens two weeks later? Oh, the dollar goes back up to where it was. Interest rates go back down lower than they were before. And it's like what you the conclusion I think you have to come to is there's some sort of mechanical thing that's going on. Not not like a carry trade. And by the way, is this blatantly AI? I just noticed that. Come on, CNBC. I mean, whenever you see a dash like this, I don't know what that's called, but obviously that's AI. So, if you're going to use AI for your titles, CNBC, at least take out this thing that makes it blatantly obvious that you're using chat GPT. But anyway, getting back to it here. Um, when we see the long end like blow out like it absolutely is today, you know, the 10ear Treasury is up like six or seven basis points, something like that. Um, there's some sort of mechanical reason for this. Now, it it's it's big hedge funds or financial institutions get caught off sides somehow. Then Trump comes out, makes a tweet that we're going to take over Greenland or whatever he's saying, and we're going to implement 3,000% tariffs on French wine or what or or I don't like Macron. He looked at me the wrong way. And therefore, we're going to put a 200% tariff on French champagne or whatever. I don't like Macron's nose. Whatever Trump is going to say. And so then the market just freaks out and then you've got big financial institutions that somehow get caught off sides and they have to unwind a trade. That's my most that's my closest guess as to what happened before and we see the exact same thing happen now. So there are no certainties only probabilities but I would assume the exact same or this will play out the exact same way it did last time and we're going to go over how it played out last time. So here we go. Key talking points. Sell America trade in full Sell America trade in full swing. Okay. Uh President Donald Trump latest threats around Greenland push global investors to shift exposure away from US ccentric investments. Then why is the Japanese the JGB doing the exact same thing but even more? Are are global investors somehow taking their frustration out on the JGB market that they have for Donald Trump? Come on. These things, these headlines or these narratives, when they they make sense when you just read the headline, like the narrative, right? But once you just scratch beneath the surface, just one level, like the whole narrative completely falls apart. But anyway, let's get back to it. The US dollar index headed for its biggest decline since oh, April. And while we're at it, let's go to the DXY. It is down big. I mean, there there's no getting around that. But let's go back to April to see how this played out before. Uh oh, I keep forgetting year to date is no longer 2025. Okay, so here is this big huge plummet that we had and it goes down, plummet, plummet, plummet, and then kind of goes back up and then churn. Now we get down after retardation day. All that was kind of gone by the wayside and it goes down to a 96 handle. Then it kind of goes back up to where we were trading uh 99 pretty much where we were going all the way back, you know, to late April. In fact, even higher than we were in late April, but not quite as high as we were before retardation day. That's for sure. But I think you just see uh you know, quick knee-jerk reaction and it just goes right back. In fact, I would say the same thing for the S&P 500. Let's go over there and check out what's happening with the S&P. And as you can kind of gather from the title, uh, we've got the S&P down 2% today, 143 points. I would not be surprised if we're at all-time highs within a week. Um, I mean, I I get it. This is kind of catches the market off guard, but how big of a deal can Greenland possibly possibly be? And then you've got the whole taco trade, which it doesn't happen all the time, meaning Trump backing down. Sure as hell didn't back down with Venezuela, although lately he has, but not with Maduro. But um you know, what are the chances this Greenland thing blows up? Probably not much. And then the market's just going to use it as let's just say it does blow up. Fine. The market's just going to say, "Oh, oh, wait a minute. We forgot. That means the Fed's going to drop rates. Bye bye. Bye. Bye-bye. So, it's just when you're in this bullish mode of just euphoria, the market just spins. You know, you have a day or two where it's like, oh, what what what happened? No, no, sell, sell, sell, sell, and then it's right back to the passive bid. Just the byebye, bye bye bye, Jim Kramer, CNBC. Stocks always go higher, buy the dip, blah blah blah blah blah. And we've seen it over and over and over again. I don't see why it plays out any different this time. I mean when it doesn't play out is when the labor market gets so bad and then that really starts to impact GDP and then I think you see the bad news become bad news. But until that time I think good news is good news and bad news is good news. So my prediction if you want one is uh wherever we are whatever happened today will be fully erased within a week. I would say not just within the S&P 500 uh within the NASDAQ and uh likely in the the bond market the long end of the curve because the front end, you know, the two-year really isn't moving much at all. You can see the two-year just up basically one basis point where the 10-year up almost seven basis points on the day. Big steepener. By the way, I need to point out that if you are a Rebel Capitalist Pro member, you have some incredible insights there because one of the trades that I've put on in my own portfolio that all the Rebel Capitalists Pro members know about is the Steepener trade. I've mentioned it a few times on this channel, so you guys have probably heard me talk about it before, but that's where I go long two-year futures and I go short the 10-year futures. So, I play the delta, right? So if you get a bear steepener because of inflation growth and inflation expectations, you win. And if you get a recession, then you get the bare the bull steepener likely because the front end drops faster than the long end and you win. So that's why I I like the steepener trades in this part of the cycle a little bit more than I like just the absolute directional bets on the interest rates themselves because that you get a lot of noise in there. I mean, you look at 2008 for heaven's sakes. I mention this all the time, but from March of 2008 to July of 2008, the 10-year Treasury went up by 100 basis points. So in these cycles, you it's never a straight line. It's always this massive roller coaster ride. But what usually isn't a roller coaster ride is the steepener. The steepener. So anyway, to full disclosure, I've got that that trade on. So today was a great day for me because I own silver. I've owned silver. I wish I was in the whole time, but I've only owned it for maybe uh two or three weeks. But again, if you're a Rebel Capitals Pro member, you know that because you get my trade alerts. Anyway, getting back to the nitty-gritty, let's go back to CNBC and the sell sell America trade. It's so ridiculous. I'm not a big fan. You guys know I'm very bearish on the US economy, that's for sure. the market maybe different, but the the uh I mean there's no doubt it's in a bubble, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're bearish. Um but the US economy, I don't know that there's any way to argue unless you just exclusively exclusively look at GDP and completely ignore the the labor market. But here's uh the dollar. I mean, yeah, down today, but I don't know that uh it's a huge deal. I mean, yesterday I was trading a 99 handle for heaven's sakes. And that's after retardation day. That's after the last round of quote unquote sell America. So, if we're selling America and the US dollar, the DXY is still trading at a 99 handle. Come on. So, the latest flare ups uh is after Trump imposes 10% tariffs on eight European countries as part of the push to take over Greenland. Greenland has repeatedly rejected Trump's request to purchase the Arctic Island. It it's it it is a little baffling. I mean, it's it's always about resources at the end of the day. It's always about one of two things. Either resources or some sort of strategic move against our enemies, you know, China, Russia, etc. So maybe Greenland is both. Um, but you know, is Trump going to do it through these tariffs and what? Maybe, but I mean, I highly doubt it. And so, where he made this announcement, by the way, was at the our favorite place, the World Economic Forum. Yay. I don't think Klaus is there anymore. He had to retire in a just a whirlwind of shame. You have all these accusations. Shocker, right? So I guess this is a quote from Dalio. Let's read that. If you take the conflicts, you can't ignore the possibility of capital wars. In other words, maybe there's not the same inclination to buy US debt and so on. Dallio, come on, dude. You've been saying this for five years. And just show me a time now. In fact, that gives me a good opportunity to go over to Japan. So, let's go over to the JGBs, uh, which absolutely are spiking today and, uh, over the last few days for sure. So, we're going to go over to bonds, go over to the 10-year JGB. Up 10 basis points just today. I mean, that's a huge move in the JGBs. Look at this. Just last five days. I mean, you go from 215 up to 237. I mean, you're talking what, 22 basis point move in just the last uh within the last 5 days. And that's a big big big big move. Now, the narrative that you're going to hear is, oh, this is just the bond market rejecting all the debt and deficits. The debt and deficits. The debt and deficits. And this is what Dallio has been talking about for a long, long time. As if the debt and deficits just got massively worse over the last 3 days. I mean, come on. So, the only thing that's really triggered this, the catalyst that you'd look for is something other than debt and deficits because debt and deficits have been going uh actually down in Japan. So, I don't really think this is about debt and deficits, right? In fact, just let me show you the receipts here. If we go to uh let's see chart of uh Japan, we'll do debt to GDP. Uh there you go. So you go back to 2020 and you're at 258%. And it just goes straight down. In fact, you're you're lower today than you were in 2019. You're actually see 23235. You're actually lower than you were in 2018. In fact, you're lower than you were in 2014. So the debt to GDP in Japan right now is just write this down. Focus on this, guys. The debt to GDP in Japan right now is lower than it was in 2014. And and yet you're going to tell me that this move in the JGBs is a result of debt and deficits. Come on. Come on. It's nonsense, right? This is a perfect example of one of those narratives that sounds plausible when in fact it sounds totally legit when you just look at this chart. You're like, whoa, whoa. Yeah, the bond vigilantes are back. They're they're putting it to, you know, the government. They're not going to get away with these debt and deficits any longer. So why wh why why now when they didn't do it from 2014 to 2024 when it's the exact same debt to GDP? You see again narrative makes sense if you just look at this chart but once you scratch beneath the surface it just completely falls apart. And then to take it a step further, if you look at the uh nominal GDP again, growth in inflation expectations, you see that the last GDP print for Japan, 4%. 4%. 4%. And the 10-year JGB is trading at 2.37. Like, like that's actually, if you want to get down to brass tax, that's low. it should be trading way higher than that not not due to debt and deficits but just due to simply nominal GDP. So what this tells you is that the market is expecting nominal GDP probably to go down uh in the future not not uh up. Why do you have this whole, you know, move here? Probably because the market is like, "Oh, there's no way we're going to get inflation. No way we're getting inflation. No way we're going to get inflation." And then you get some inflation and they're like, "Holy cow, we were wrong. Maybe this is it. This is the this is the day that the you know the interest rates start going up. So everyone sells sells sells sells." Now, is that a result of debt and deficits? No, that's a result of nominal GDP and inflation actually going higher than expected in Japan. Like like it's always always always about especially in developed markets, it's always about G uh excuse me, nominal GDP, growth and inflation expectations, not def deficits. In fact, I would challenge any of you or anyone, you know, on social media or anyone in the mainstream media. I would challenge Dallio, in fact, just to show me a market. Show me a market where the 10-year sovereign bond is trading, let's just say, 300 basis points above nominal GDP. Just show me that in a developed economy. I I don't think you can. In fact, maybe I should do that for the next whiteboard video. Let's do a deep dive on that. But if you can't show me a developed economy where the 10-year sovereign bond is trading at two 300 basis points above nominal GDP and then you look and you try to adjust for or see if there's a correlation between debt to GDP and the actual delta between the 10-year sovereign bond and nominal GDP and you can't find any correlation whatsoever if not maybe an inverse correl correlation, then you have to start coming to the conclusion that this narrative is just complete. It it's nonsense. It's nonsense. Although it it sounds very very plausible if you just strictly look at this chart. Okay, now let's get back to gold and silver and see what gold and silver is doing. As you would expect, gold. Now, is gold up because of debt and deficits? Is gold up because of inflation? No. No, no, no. It's up because of counterparty risk, which is the one thing that I can find that really makes gold move, which is interesting, right? Because again, you go back to the narratives and it's always, oh, it's the inverse of the dollar. Oh, it's an inflation hedge. Oh, it's therefore, you know, if inflation is going higher, then the price of gold is going higher as well. You you really can't find anything over long term other than over the long long term. You're talking decades, gold always maintains its value as far as its purchasing power. Always. That is absolutely unequivocally true. But it doesn't necessarily mean that gold trades with the CPI or it trades with the rate of inflation. A lot of times it's the exact opposite. But the one thing that I have found where there is a correlation is geopolitical risk and therefore counterparty risk. When you get increased counterparty risk, very often gold goes up. And I think that's what you're seeing here. And I think that's what silver is doing. It's just riding the coattails of gold. And in these cycles, it silver always catches up and when it does, it goes up in much higher uh levels in percentage terms. And that's what we see today. Gold up 3.5%. Uh, silver up almost 6%. Just today. What an incredible move in silver. Wow. And congratulations. I know a lot of you own silver and bravo. Bravo. I mean, you're up almost 100%. In just the last couple months. Wow. That's incredible. And full disclosure, I I did not catch this move. I've made a lot of money this year in gold, excuse me, last year in gold. I made a lot of money in the miners as well, but I really stayed away from silver just because the industrial component of it and what I was seeing in the curve and the labor market, but you know, the chart looked so good. Even I bought right around it was when we had this breakout right here. So, I bought right right around there and then it dipped back down. I almost sold, but I'm like, it hasn't broken through. I held it and then so I' I've ridden it from here up to uh where it is today. And am I selling? Absolutely not. Why? Well, you remember Rebel Capitals Pro? You know, because the number one rule from Marty Zwag, trend is your friend. And this trend is pretty damn good. That's for sure. That's for sure. But if you want my predictions, I think that what you're seeing today, I I you know, if I was trading this, which um as of right now, I'm not, but if I was, I'd fade everything on the short term, right? I'd fade everything. So, rates going up, I I would fade that. And the S&P down, I would fade that as well, just over the next week, probably. Okay, guys. Uh, now on that bombshell, I just got done emailing back and forth with a gentleman that knows a lot about commodities, knows a lot about silver, and knows a lot about something else that is breaking out, and that is the Sprat Physical Uranium Trust. That would be Mr. Rick Rule himself. I just got done emailing back and forth with him and his assistant because he is all set to join us at Rebel Capitalist Live 2026. That's right, ladies and gentlemen, right here. Josh, put a link in the description. Josh, put a link in the chat, please. You guys can see what the insiders have said. There's Hartman right there. You can see who's coming. Darius Dale. It's going to be a lot of fun coming to Rebel Capitals Live for the first time. Everyone's favorite. Kiasaki got Mike Green coming back. There's Rick Rule, the gentleman I was just referring to. And we're going to add a lot more speakers before we get done. You guys go ahead and get your tickets ASAP because as we get closer to the event, obviously the prices go up. All right, guys. Enjoy the rest of your afternoon. As always, make sure you're standing up for freedom, liberty, free market, capitalism. See you in the next video.
Interest Rates Are EXPLODING Higher!! (What You Need To Know)
Summary
Transcript
Hello fellow Robo Capitals. Hope you're well. So, we've got interest rates exploding higher, not just in the United States, but in Japan as well. It's getting a lot of press. Is this the sell America or maybe sell Japan and America trade all over again because of the tariffs? Let's dive into exactly what's happening. Try to put the pieces of the puzzle together. We're going to start by going over to CNBC and they asked the question. Here we go. Right in the title. This is sell America. Well, they're not even asking the question. They're making a statement. This is sell America. US dollar treasury prices tumble and gold spikes as globe fleas US assets. You know what's amazing is how short the mainstream media and social media's memory actually is. If if I go back to April, wasn't there something called Well, I call it retardation day. That's the most appropriate way to describe it. But wasn't there this this liberation day thing? And and oh yeah, what what happened back then? Oh, that's right. It was sell America. Remember sell the US dollar. Interest rates spike. Oh my gosh. The Fed has lost control of the long end of the curve. Everyone's dumping treasuries. Dump. China's dumping treasuries. They're, you know, they hate Trump. And then what happens two weeks later? Oh, the dollar goes back up to where it was. Interest rates go back down lower than they were before. And it's like what you the conclusion I think you have to come to is there's some sort of mechanical thing that's going on. Not not like a carry trade. And by the way, is this blatantly AI? I just noticed that. Come on, CNBC. I mean, whenever you see a dash like this, I don't know what that's called, but obviously that's AI. So, if you're going to use AI for your titles, CNBC, at least take out this thing that makes it blatantly obvious that you're using chat GPT. But anyway, getting back to it here. Um, when we see the long end like blow out like it absolutely is today, you know, the 10ear Treasury is up like six or seven basis points, something like that. Um, there's some sort of mechanical reason for this. Now, it it's it's big hedge funds or financial institutions get caught off sides somehow. Then Trump comes out, makes a tweet that we're going to take over Greenland or whatever he's saying, and we're going to implement 3,000% tariffs on French wine or what or or I don't like Macron. He looked at me the wrong way. And therefore, we're going to put a 200% tariff on French champagne or whatever. I don't like Macron's nose. Whatever Trump is going to say. And so then the market just freaks out and then you've got big financial institutions that somehow get caught off sides and they have to unwind a trade. That's my most that's my closest guess as to what happened before and we see the exact same thing happen now. So there are no certainties only probabilities but I would assume the exact same or this will play out the exact same way it did last time and we're going to go over how it played out last time. So here we go. Key talking points. Sell America trade in full Sell America trade in full swing. Okay. Uh President Donald Trump latest threats around Greenland push global investors to shift exposure away from US ccentric investments. Then why is the Japanese the JGB doing the exact same thing but even more? Are are global investors somehow taking their frustration out on the JGB market that they have for Donald Trump? Come on. These things, these headlines or these narratives, when they they make sense when you just read the headline, like the narrative, right? But once you just scratch beneath the surface, just one level, like the whole narrative completely falls apart. But anyway, let's get back to it. The US dollar index headed for its biggest decline since oh, April. And while we're at it, let's go to the DXY. It is down big. I mean, there there's no getting around that. But let's go back to April to see how this played out before. Uh oh, I keep forgetting year to date is no longer 2025. Okay, so here is this big huge plummet that we had and it goes down, plummet, plummet, plummet, and then kind of goes back up and then churn. Now we get down after retardation day. All that was kind of gone by the wayside and it goes down to a 96 handle. Then it kind of goes back up to where we were trading uh 99 pretty much where we were going all the way back, you know, to late April. In fact, even higher than we were in late April, but not quite as high as we were before retardation day. That's for sure. But I think you just see uh you know, quick knee-jerk reaction and it just goes right back. In fact, I would say the same thing for the S&P 500. Let's go over there and check out what's happening with the S&P. And as you can kind of gather from the title, uh, we've got the S&P down 2% today, 143 points. I would not be surprised if we're at all-time highs within a week. Um, I mean, I I get it. This is kind of catches the market off guard, but how big of a deal can Greenland possibly possibly be? And then you've got the whole taco trade, which it doesn't happen all the time, meaning Trump backing down. Sure as hell didn't back down with Venezuela, although lately he has, but not with Maduro. But um you know, what are the chances this Greenland thing blows up? Probably not much. And then the market's just going to use it as let's just say it does blow up. Fine. The market's just going to say, "Oh, oh, wait a minute. We forgot. That means the Fed's going to drop rates. Bye bye. Bye. Bye-bye. So, it's just when you're in this bullish mode of just euphoria, the market just spins. You know, you have a day or two where it's like, oh, what what what happened? No, no, sell, sell, sell, sell, and then it's right back to the passive bid. Just the byebye, bye bye bye, Jim Kramer, CNBC. Stocks always go higher, buy the dip, blah blah blah blah blah. And we've seen it over and over and over again. I don't see why it plays out any different this time. I mean when it doesn't play out is when the labor market gets so bad and then that really starts to impact GDP and then I think you see the bad news become bad news. But until that time I think good news is good news and bad news is good news. So my prediction if you want one is uh wherever we are whatever happened today will be fully erased within a week. I would say not just within the S&P 500 uh within the NASDAQ and uh likely in the the bond market the long end of the curve because the front end, you know, the two-year really isn't moving much at all. You can see the two-year just up basically one basis point where the 10-year up almost seven basis points on the day. Big steepener. By the way, I need to point out that if you are a Rebel Capitalist Pro member, you have some incredible insights there because one of the trades that I've put on in my own portfolio that all the Rebel Capitalists Pro members know about is the Steepener trade. I've mentioned it a few times on this channel, so you guys have probably heard me talk about it before, but that's where I go long two-year futures and I go short the 10-year futures. So, I play the delta, right? So if you get a bear steepener because of inflation growth and inflation expectations, you win. And if you get a recession, then you get the bare the bull steepener likely because the front end drops faster than the long end and you win. So that's why I I like the steepener trades in this part of the cycle a little bit more than I like just the absolute directional bets on the interest rates themselves because that you get a lot of noise in there. I mean, you look at 2008 for heaven's sakes. I mention this all the time, but from March of 2008 to July of 2008, the 10-year Treasury went up by 100 basis points. So in these cycles, you it's never a straight line. It's always this massive roller coaster ride. But what usually isn't a roller coaster ride is the steepener. The steepener. So anyway, to full disclosure, I've got that that trade on. So today was a great day for me because I own silver. I've owned silver. I wish I was in the whole time, but I've only owned it for maybe uh two or three weeks. But again, if you're a Rebel Capitals Pro member, you know that because you get my trade alerts. Anyway, getting back to the nitty-gritty, let's go back to CNBC and the sell sell America trade. It's so ridiculous. I'm not a big fan. You guys know I'm very bearish on the US economy, that's for sure. the market maybe different, but the the uh I mean there's no doubt it's in a bubble, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're bearish. Um but the US economy, I don't know that there's any way to argue unless you just exclusively exclusively look at GDP and completely ignore the the labor market. But here's uh the dollar. I mean, yeah, down today, but I don't know that uh it's a huge deal. I mean, yesterday I was trading a 99 handle for heaven's sakes. And that's after retardation day. That's after the last round of quote unquote sell America. So, if we're selling America and the US dollar, the DXY is still trading at a 99 handle. Come on. So, the latest flare ups uh is after Trump imposes 10% tariffs on eight European countries as part of the push to take over Greenland. Greenland has repeatedly rejected Trump's request to purchase the Arctic Island. It it's it it is a little baffling. I mean, it's it's always about resources at the end of the day. It's always about one of two things. Either resources or some sort of strategic move against our enemies, you know, China, Russia, etc. So maybe Greenland is both. Um, but you know, is Trump going to do it through these tariffs and what? Maybe, but I mean, I highly doubt it. And so, where he made this announcement, by the way, was at the our favorite place, the World Economic Forum. Yay. I don't think Klaus is there anymore. He had to retire in a just a whirlwind of shame. You have all these accusations. Shocker, right? So I guess this is a quote from Dalio. Let's read that. If you take the conflicts, you can't ignore the possibility of capital wars. In other words, maybe there's not the same inclination to buy US debt and so on. Dallio, come on, dude. You've been saying this for five years. And just show me a time now. In fact, that gives me a good opportunity to go over to Japan. So, let's go over to the JGBs, uh, which absolutely are spiking today and, uh, over the last few days for sure. So, we're going to go over to bonds, go over to the 10-year JGB. Up 10 basis points just today. I mean, that's a huge move in the JGBs. Look at this. Just last five days. I mean, you go from 215 up to 237. I mean, you're talking what, 22 basis point move in just the last uh within the last 5 days. And that's a big big big big move. Now, the narrative that you're going to hear is, oh, this is just the bond market rejecting all the debt and deficits. The debt and deficits. The debt and deficits. And this is what Dallio has been talking about for a long, long time. As if the debt and deficits just got massively worse over the last 3 days. I mean, come on. So, the only thing that's really triggered this, the catalyst that you'd look for is something other than debt and deficits because debt and deficits have been going uh actually down in Japan. So, I don't really think this is about debt and deficits, right? In fact, just let me show you the receipts here. If we go to uh let's see chart of uh Japan, we'll do debt to GDP. Uh there you go. So you go back to 2020 and you're at 258%. And it just goes straight down. In fact, you're you're lower today than you were in 2019. You're actually see 23235. You're actually lower than you were in 2018. In fact, you're lower than you were in 2014. So the debt to GDP in Japan right now is just write this down. Focus on this, guys. The debt to GDP in Japan right now is lower than it was in 2014. And and yet you're going to tell me that this move in the JGBs is a result of debt and deficits. Come on. Come on. It's nonsense, right? This is a perfect example of one of those narratives that sounds plausible when in fact it sounds totally legit when you just look at this chart. You're like, whoa, whoa. Yeah, the bond vigilantes are back. They're they're putting it to, you know, the government. They're not going to get away with these debt and deficits any longer. So why wh why why now when they didn't do it from 2014 to 2024 when it's the exact same debt to GDP? You see again narrative makes sense if you just look at this chart but once you scratch beneath the surface it just completely falls apart. And then to take it a step further, if you look at the uh nominal GDP again, growth in inflation expectations, you see that the last GDP print for Japan, 4%. 4%. 4%. And the 10-year JGB is trading at 2.37. Like, like that's actually, if you want to get down to brass tax, that's low. it should be trading way higher than that not not due to debt and deficits but just due to simply nominal GDP. So what this tells you is that the market is expecting nominal GDP probably to go down uh in the future not not uh up. Why do you have this whole, you know, move here? Probably because the market is like, "Oh, there's no way we're going to get inflation. No way we're getting inflation. No way we're going to get inflation." And then you get some inflation and they're like, "Holy cow, we were wrong. Maybe this is it. This is the this is the day that the you know the interest rates start going up. So everyone sells sells sells sells." Now, is that a result of debt and deficits? No, that's a result of nominal GDP and inflation actually going higher than expected in Japan. Like like it's always always always about especially in developed markets, it's always about G uh excuse me, nominal GDP, growth and inflation expectations, not def deficits. In fact, I would challenge any of you or anyone, you know, on social media or anyone in the mainstream media. I would challenge Dallio, in fact, just to show me a market. Show me a market where the 10-year sovereign bond is trading, let's just say, 300 basis points above nominal GDP. Just show me that in a developed economy. I I don't think you can. In fact, maybe I should do that for the next whiteboard video. Let's do a deep dive on that. But if you can't show me a developed economy where the 10-year sovereign bond is trading at two 300 basis points above nominal GDP and then you look and you try to adjust for or see if there's a correlation between debt to GDP and the actual delta between the 10-year sovereign bond and nominal GDP and you can't find any correlation whatsoever if not maybe an inverse correl correlation, then you have to start coming to the conclusion that this narrative is just complete. It it's nonsense. It's nonsense. Although it it sounds very very plausible if you just strictly look at this chart. Okay, now let's get back to gold and silver and see what gold and silver is doing. As you would expect, gold. Now, is gold up because of debt and deficits? Is gold up because of inflation? No. No, no, no. It's up because of counterparty risk, which is the one thing that I can find that really makes gold move, which is interesting, right? Because again, you go back to the narratives and it's always, oh, it's the inverse of the dollar. Oh, it's an inflation hedge. Oh, it's therefore, you know, if inflation is going higher, then the price of gold is going higher as well. You you really can't find anything over long term other than over the long long term. You're talking decades, gold always maintains its value as far as its purchasing power. Always. That is absolutely unequivocally true. But it doesn't necessarily mean that gold trades with the CPI or it trades with the rate of inflation. A lot of times it's the exact opposite. But the one thing that I have found where there is a correlation is geopolitical risk and therefore counterparty risk. When you get increased counterparty risk, very often gold goes up. And I think that's what you're seeing here. And I think that's what silver is doing. It's just riding the coattails of gold. And in these cycles, it silver always catches up and when it does, it goes up in much higher uh levels in percentage terms. And that's what we see today. Gold up 3.5%. Uh, silver up almost 6%. Just today. What an incredible move in silver. Wow. And congratulations. I know a lot of you own silver and bravo. Bravo. I mean, you're up almost 100%. In just the last couple months. Wow. That's incredible. And full disclosure, I I did not catch this move. I've made a lot of money this year in gold, excuse me, last year in gold. I made a lot of money in the miners as well, but I really stayed away from silver just because the industrial component of it and what I was seeing in the curve and the labor market, but you know, the chart looked so good. Even I bought right around it was when we had this breakout right here. So, I bought right right around there and then it dipped back down. I almost sold, but I'm like, it hasn't broken through. I held it and then so I' I've ridden it from here up to uh where it is today. And am I selling? Absolutely not. Why? Well, you remember Rebel Capitals Pro? You know, because the number one rule from Marty Zwag, trend is your friend. And this trend is pretty damn good. That's for sure. That's for sure. But if you want my predictions, I think that what you're seeing today, I I you know, if I was trading this, which um as of right now, I'm not, but if I was, I'd fade everything on the short term, right? I'd fade everything. So, rates going up, I I would fade that. And the S&P down, I would fade that as well, just over the next week, probably. Okay, guys. Uh, now on that bombshell, I just got done emailing back and forth with a gentleman that knows a lot about commodities, knows a lot about silver, and knows a lot about something else that is breaking out, and that is the Sprat Physical Uranium Trust. That would be Mr. Rick Rule himself. I just got done emailing back and forth with him and his assistant because he is all set to join us at Rebel Capitalist Live 2026. That's right, ladies and gentlemen, right here. Josh, put a link in the description. Josh, put a link in the chat, please. You guys can see what the insiders have said. There's Hartman right there. You can see who's coming. Darius Dale. It's going to be a lot of fun coming to Rebel Capitals Live for the first time. Everyone's favorite. Kiasaki got Mike Green coming back. There's Rick Rule, the gentleman I was just referring to. And we're going to add a lot more speakers before we get done. You guys go ahead and get your tickets ASAP because as we get closer to the event, obviously the prices go up. All right, guys. Enjoy the rest of your afternoon. As always, make sure you're standing up for freedom, liberty, free market, capitalism. See you in the next video.