Millenial Investing - The Investor's Podcast Network
Dec 16, 2024

Investment Wisdom: Lessons from Mohnish Pabrai w/ Shawn O’Malley (MI382)

Summary

  • Core Principle: Emphasis on circling the wagons—holding a few exceptional winners over decades to drive outsized compounding despite many mediocre positions.
  • Case Studies: Positive long-term holding examples include AMZN, BRK.B, WMT, and the transformative stake in NPN.JO via 0700.HK, underscoring the power of not trimming winners.
  • Sunteck Realty: Pitched as a high-upside play in Mumbai’s redevelopment; SUNTECK is backed by capable capital allocators and India’s structural urbanization tailwinds.
  • India Theme: Bullish view on India and Mumbai Redevelopment as multi-decade catalysts, especially for Real Estate Development companies.
  • NVIDIA Example: NVDA highlighted as a modern big winner where selling early proved costly, reinforcing the hold-winners mindset.
  • Valuation Discipline: Great businesses aren’t always great investments at any price; mega-caps like MasterCard can face size/valuation headwinds versus smaller underfollowed names.
  • Concentration: Willingness to let winners become large portions of the portfolio, mirroring examples from Berkshire and Naspers-Tencent.
  • Risk Management: Prefer simple, asymmetric bets with low downside/high uncertainty, avoiding overpriced assets, complex trades, or unnecessary activity.

Transcript

(00:00) great companies especially if they reach a  certain size are not necessarily great Investments   and more average companies with undervalued  shares or a large runway for growth can in fact   be great Investments I'd add to this to say that  market prices for stocks are fundamentally about   expectations since companies are valued based on  the earnings they will create in the future the   challenge with investing in large well-known great  businesses is that expectations are going to be   high great companies have high expectations for (00:27) their performance but if you can find a   company that the market thinks is just good  but actually has hidden modes that make it   a great business like prde thinks is the  case with suntech then you can benefit from   not only owning a company that can compound  returns at high rates but you'll also have   the Tailwind of the price earnings ratio rising  in your favor as the market eventually realizes   how good the company is hello before we dive  into the video be sure to click that subscribe   button so you never miss an episode show us (00:58) some love by giving a thumbs up and   Shar sharing your thoughts in the comments  your support really means everything to us   today I'll be digging into the wisdom of Manish  PAB a billionaire investor with a market beating   track record spending some 25 years I'll pull  from a variety of sources to distill down the   most essential lessons to be learned from PAB  true to paba's own teachings on the value of   cloning habits and tactics of great investors I'll  be looking to shamelessly clone in myself cloning   is such a powerful concept because it leans (01:27) into following the path blazed before   us by winning investors rather than trying to  reinvent the wheel studying what has worked   and avoiding what hasn't worked for the best  investors across their careers is almost like   a cheat code in a way allowing new investors  to quickly level up their game while saving   them lots of time and pain from learning these  lessons through their own experience the hard   way the challenge is in actually being able  to internalize these lessons without having   to learn them the hard way monish is a master of (01:53) cloning both Warren Buffett and Charlie   Munger taking what has worked for them and trying  to apply it to his own life and investing strategy   over the years PAB got to know Buffett after  spending $650,000 to have a charity lunch with   him which he later said was worth every penny  he actually felt the two and a half hour meal   with Buffett was under price given what he  got out of it and from there he became even   closer with Charlie Munger before he passed  on Fridays they would play bridge together   which was munger's favorite game PAB has (02:21) truly had a rare chance to study   the best investors to ever live up close and  personal and that has surely rubbed off on him   but I want to clone the master cloner and soak up  as much knowledge from him as possible having said   that let's begin with p's 2023 presentation  during Burkshire weekend where he gave an   hourlong talk at the University of Nebraska which  became an instant hit throughout value investing   circles one simple metaphor dominates the talk  that is circling the wagons if you ever watch   the TV series Yellowstone you might know (02:52) the reference imagine yourself as   a 19th century Pioneer trailblazing across the  wild west a world with unknown threats lurking   around every corner where something as trivial as  getting the wheels of your stage coach stuck in   the mud could be life or death circling the  wagons then is a defensive maneuver it's a   last Stitch effort to make a stand and fend off  attacks from Native American tribes on this new   frontier cautious thinking and deliberate  action are critical there was very little   room for error and any catastrophically wrong (03:21) decision could Mark the end of your   journey investing is less dire but it's similar  in that you're operating in an uncertain Arena   where you can never take safety for granted and  a single big mistake can be both easy to make and   devastating yet as PAB points out while investors  make so many decisions across their careers only   a small handful of them about 4% end up being  of any lasting consequence as Warren Buffett   writes in his 2022 letter to birkar shareholders  quote over the years I have made many mistakes  (03:53) consequently our extensive collection of  businesses currently consists of few Enterprises   that have truly extraordinary economics many  that enjoy very good economic characteristics   and a large group that are marginal let me  go ahead and say that again Warren Buffett   believes bur shire's vast Investment Portfolio  has a cohort of companies that are just marginal   at best that isn't modesty or self- effacement  it's just economic reality over a lifetime a   few Big Winners and key decisions end up  making all the difference as P breaks it  (04:23) down over six decades Buffett has made  300 plus important decisions as Burkshire CEO   including 80 plus business acquisition over 200  common stock Investments and 10 plus Key Personnel   hires yet Buffett says the following in 58 years  of burk share management most of my Capital   allocation decisions have been no better than so  so our satisfactory results have been the product   of about a dozen truly good decisions some of  these truly great decisions stem from investments   in companies like Geico Coca-Cola American (04:53) Express apple and National Indemnity   as well as in people like a Jane who runs  berkshire's Insurance operations P explains   that with these truly great and impactful  decisions it wasn't the initial choice to buy   that mattered most it was the decision to continue  holding those Investments by luck or skill anyone   can recognize attractive businesses to own one of  the differentiating factors for investors like PAB   and Buffett is not to lose sight of what matters  most though as in many people have made these same   investment decisions along the way but (05:25) few have held them as long as   birkshire and reaped the full benefits of the  decision to invest in companies with lasting   competitive advantages across more than 300  important decisions Brar kept plenty of poor   and mediocre businesses but they also held onto  their biggest winners too which more than made   up for the average performance from the rest of  the portfolio the metaphor of P makes is to say   that investing is a very forgiving business so  long as you don't cut the flowers and water the   weeds too many people make the mistake of doing (05:54) all the work to understand and identify   a great business and then after a few years  despite no real change in the the business they   decide to sell maybe they feel as though they  already earned a decent profit that they want   to lock in or maybe they simply get bored and are  looking for Action whatever it is they rebalance   over time away from their biggest winners and  correspondingly their best decisions hence   cutting the flowers while watering the weeds  by making just a handful of great decisions   across almost six decades and holding on (06:22) to those winners berkshire's   compounded returns at 20% per year trouncing  the S&P 500's 9.9% annual returns from 196   5 through 2022 that difference in compounding  of 10 percentage points a year over that full   time period results in almost 3.8 million per of  cumulative gains versus 24,000 per of cumulative   gains for the broader market so a dozen or so  great bets over a very long period of time drove   a difference of over 3 million per of cumulative  returns to go back to the circling the wagons   metaphor these big winners for birkshire and any (06:56) long-term investors portfolio make up the   stage coaches that defend the rest to the  portfolio a few excellent investments will   defend your portfolio from recessions stock market  panics and whatever other risks await you in this   uncertain world to really make the point PAB uses  the South African publishing company naspers as   an example back in 2001 naspers purchased a 46. (07:18) 5% stake in the Chinese company ensent   for only $32 million while naspers itself  was a $500 million company after ent's IPO   in 2004 that stake in ensent was deluded down  to just 36% but over the next 14 years nasper   didn't sell a single share of tensent while  tensent stock grew at 50% per year with that   incredible growth by 2018 tinson was a $530  billion company and nasra own shares in it   worth some1 170 billion in less than two decades  tinent went from representing about 6% of nasar's   market value to more than 100% of it since (07:54) NASA's own Market valuation was   actually less than the value of its stake in t  Cent what made the difference for NASA was not   just their decision to invest in tensent but their  decision to continue holding it you can easily see   how after a decade of 50% plus returns per year  from ensent elevating nasar's market value from   the hundreds of millions to the hundreds of  billions they might have wanted to take some   money off the table and trim their position  in ensent instead nasper circled the wagons   around ensent and that is what has generated (08:21) some of their incredible incredible   returns over that period another great example  of not cutting the flowers and watering the   weeds or circling the wagons to use both met  fors comes from investor Nick sleep between   2001 and 2013 Nick sleep's Nomad fund earned  returns of 18.4% per year almost triple what   the msci world stock index earned over that  same period with $3 billion in assets under   management sleep dissolved the fund in 2014  yet his simple recommendation to his investors   was to Simply continue holding Amazon Costco (08:51) and birkshire for the next 10 years   and equal concentration his investors could  effectively recreate the portfolio without the   fees so long as they had these same conviction  to hold on to those companies for an extended   period it may be of little surprise but many  of the funds investors could not stomach doing   that even at sleep's explicit advice and they  Diversified to their own detriment sleep's   concentrated portfolio despite paying off hugely  was too much for many of his funds investors to   swallow while Costco and birkshire have (09:19) been great bets Amazon was the   key investment to circle the wagons around  and continue holding even if everything else   in sleep's portfolio had gone to zero with a  20% stake in Amazon the portfolio would have   outperformed the S&P 500 by six percentage points  from 2004 through 2023 so the many mistakes they   made along the way simply didn't matter that  much when they were right in such a big way   about buying and holding Amazon forever even  with Ben Graham who was Warren Buffett's mentor   and the father of value investing his best (09:47) investment ever was in Geico a high   quality company that he held for more than a  decade yet at least in part it stood at odds   with the investment method he had preached of  buying overly cheap stocks at a discount to their   intrinsic value and then selling them within  a few months or years once they reached their   full value Geico was such a good investment  to hold indefinitely that Graham violated   some of his personal rules around portfolio  sizing and invested 25% of his partnership's   assets into the company despite normally having (10:14) a limit of investing no more than 5% in   a single investment as Graham wrote decades  ago quote ironically enough the aggregate of   profits acre from this single investment  decision far exceeded the sum of all the   others realized through 20 years of wide ranging  operations and specialized Fields involving much   investigation endless pondering and countless  individual decisions he adds quote one lucky   break or one supremely shrew decision can  we tell them apart this may count for more   than a lifetime of journeyman efforts in (10:46) 25 years Geico was in the parlament   of Peter Lynch a 500 bagger again I love how  Ben Graham frames it it's not just a question   of luck he says behind the luck or The crucial  decision there must usually exist a background   of preparation and discipline one needs to  be sufficiently established and recognized   so that these opportunities will knock at his  particular door one must have the means the   judgment and the courage to take advantage  of them one big correct investment held for   a long time can make or break a career in 1976 (11:20) Graham is recorded as saying that after   having made an investment in Geico in 1948 from  then on he and his Investment Partners seem to   be brilliant people if Ram had sold Geico  in 1950 as opposed to holding it for more   than another two decades he would have short  changed himself and may not be remembered with   the same reverence as he is today which  stems from both his wonderful teachings   and his track record of success while long-term  investing with concentrated bats on single great   companies was not really at the core of Graham's (11:49) philosophy it worked out fantastically   well for him with Geico and that is what in  part inspired Buffett to acquired Geico and   fool through birkshire and shift his perspective  toward buying wonderful companies at fair prices   over Fair companies at wonderful prices  continuing on with pb's talk on circling   the wagons he explains that in the 1960s and  1970s it became quite fashionable to invest in   the 50 largest and best known US Stocks which  was an approach known as a nifty50 where many   thought that you would do well by purchasing these (12:19) companies regardless of the price while   this episode of Market history was essentially  a bubble that burned investors over a long   enough time the strategy didn't work out as  poorly as you might think it's controversial   but if we include Walmart in the nifty50 that  ends up being the stock to circle the wagons   around with a portfolio of nifty50 stocks in  1970 and just a 2% stake in Walmart over the   next 52 years even if every other company  in your portfolio went bankrupt your small   stake in Walmart alone would have been enough (12:49) to deliver a market beating average   annual return of 133% per year for your entire  portfolio's value obviously you would have done   considerably better by just owning Walmart but  even a small position that you hold on to in a   company that becomes one of the biggest  winners in markets is more than enough   to redeem an otherwise failing portfolio the  hardest part is holding on to Walmart for 50   years or holding on to Amazon and tensent for 20  years in the last century a small percentage of   stocks have been such big Winners that (13:18) they drive the majority of the   Market's returns While most others fail  or underperform by investing in an index   fund you're ensuring that you always have some  exposure to these big Winners which will deliver   You Average stock market returns but to really  separate yourself as a stock investor to the   extent that Buffett sleep and P have you need  to correctly identify these companies that   have the potential to be big Winners bet big on  them and hold them indefinitely while knowing   that many of them will not work out but the (13:46) few that do will fully make up for it   even without Walmart The nifty50 Returned 10.2%  per year between 1972 and 2023 yet almost no one   would have held on to that portfolio of stocks  for long enough to earn those returns because   the nifty50 stocks like Disney McDonald's  and Coca-Cola collectively lost half of   their value in the bare Market of 1973 and 1974  even at ridiculously expensive valuations and a   subsequent major bare Market holding on to the  top 50 US companies would have worked out well   for you it's just that few people could have (14:16) stomached that sort of volatility along   the way without question I'm sure most nifty50  investors bailed on the strategy either in the   1973 to 74 bare Market or sometime not that  long after P's key less are that firstly a   very large error rate is par for the course  with investing secondly don't cut the flowers   to water the weeds hold on to great businesses  for dear life and thirdly avoid paying ludicrous   prices for great businesses when Brookshire  bot Coca-Cola American Express and Geico they   did so at modest valuations relative to their (14:49) business quality and that complemented   the returns these businesses were able to  compound over time additionally PAB invokes   another great investor chck Acra and suggests  we should Embraces three-legged stool approach   to investing which entails focusing on buying  great businesses run by great people with long   runways for future growth he reminds us that  when even great businesses appear fully priced   or even significantly overpriced based on what  we've gone over here today you would still not   want to sell the stock of a big winnerless it (15:18) truly reaches a point of being very very   clearly and egregiously overpriced relatedly  a single great stock like Walmart or Amazon   can grow over time to become more than 6 %  70% or even 99% of your portfolio but that   concentration un itself is not necessarily a  reason to trim the flowers Buffett has never   trimmed his stake in birkar even though it  is over 99% of his net worth it was the same   with naspers and tensent where naspers went many  years without trimming despite its tints and stake   ballooning to consume its entire Market valuation (15:52) so Pai has taken this to heart and his   portfolio at least as of 2023 is extremely  concentrated with 70% and just three bets and   one bet on a Turkish company called racist  made up more than 40% of that pie he tells   the audience that the risk is not in getting  stuck holding companies like IBM or Intel that   are supplanted by competition but in being too  trigger happy to let go of the great companies   in your portfolio for instance the opportunity  costs of selling Nvidia in 2020 are just massive   the company has added $3.3 trillion in (16:23) market value in 5 years up from   a market cap of $144 billion I'm sure there  are people who believed in Nvidia from 2015   through 2020 who sold the company during  the pandemic crash never got back in and   missed out on all that upside the gains from  an Nvidia more than make up for the ibms and   intels of your portfolio and that's the whole  point for every big winner you can have a dozen   mediocre companies and still do incredibly  well over a multi-decade Time Horizon before   we go any further in studying PB I want (16:53) to revisit the lunch he had with   Buffett that I mentioned at the top  of the show he actually did it jointly   with another Fain value investor guy spear both of  them walked away in awe of Buffett unsurprisingly   and particularly in how he and Charlie Munger  approached everything they did with honesty and   integrity habri has said that the two use an  internal yard stick to measure integrity and   in doing so they would ask a rather unconventional  question that is would you rather be the greatest   lover in the world yet be known as the worst (17:24) or would you rather be the worst lover   and known as the greatest Buffett reported  ly told P that if you know how to answer that   question correctly then you have the right  internal yard stick this also plays into   the old Buffett aism that you should never  do anything in life if you would be ashamed   of seeing it printed on the front page of your  hometown newspaper for your friends and family   to see another takeaway that PAB has cloned  from Buffett is in getting comfortable saying   no Buffett has relayed before that quote the (17:53) difference between successful people   and really successful people is that really  successful people say no to almost everything   during their lunch PAB got to Peak at Buffett's  planner and saw that it was almost completely   bare as gu spear put it to scene DC Buffett  likes to leave his time unstructured and to   leave plenty of room for spontaneity it's very  tempting to say yes to every meeting that your   colleagues or business contacts propose but  you'll end up filling your calendar with a   bunch of events that at a minimum distract you (18:21) from working deeply that isn't to say   Warren Buffett doesn't do anything all day he just  doesn't formally schedule many things instead he   leaves slate open so he can brainstorm read  deeply or call people as he sees fit this is   something that Bill Gates has actually validated  too after meeting Buffett in 1991 he said that   Buffett's calendar was largely empty having a  packed calendar doesn't make you a more serious   person the discipline to control and strictly  value your time by saying no to lots of things   is an important skill for PAB he told an (18:51) audience back in 2019 that he has   over 400 investors in his fund globally but  he can't remember the last time he a call or   exchange emails with any of them he's defined  the expectations and those relationships and   also selected to work with investors who are  like-minded so they don't feel like they have   to call them up every quarter and ask what's going  on in the portfolio there's just a level of trust   there that makes it very easy to work together  Buffett for his part tells Burkshire shareholders   that once a year he will make himself fully (19:17) available to them and for the rest of that   year he's working and not available and that one  day is of course the Burkshire shareholder meeting   where he sat on stage alongside Charlie for many  decades and answered questions for six hours plus   the way P thinks about it is that like Warren  he wants to configure his work in a way such   that he would be happy to do it even if it  weren't his job if he had to answer a ton of   calls and emails from anxious investors every  day that would very much show like work and he  (19:42) certainly wouldn't do it once reaching  some independently wealthy status that he's   already achieved so PAB has rolled his ethos  into his personal life as he tries to live   true to his inner score card in part this is  about being highly selective about the people   he allows into his life and being so selective  PAB finds comfort and knowing there are billions   of people on the planet so the opportunity cost  of missing out on a great personal connection is   pretty low because he always had the chance  to meet new potentially great people but the  (20:11) cost of introducing the wrong people  into his life is a price he's unwilling to pay   as he told STI brers in a weady Billionaire's  interview basically it's an unfair system it's   a bad system but it is a system that Warren  uses and who am I to try to improve on that   so he has multiple layers of filtering where  he to ensure he only meets the right people   and from there he invites him over to have chai  he does like to meet new people but life is too   short to pretend to be everyone's friend in his  words let me just play you some more of that  (20:42) conversation and so basically what I look  for is when I meet somebody I reflect back after   the tea I say okay what do I think and what's  going on the most recent chai with PAB I had   that person asked me to come to his place he lives  very close to my home and he said I was happy with   the Asam tea but I'm really a fan of darjiling tea  and so he says I make a great cup of darjiling tea   and would you come to my home uh so that we can  have diling tea and I like the guy you know so   it's not just one STI it's more than one I like (21:31) the guy and I said yeah so there will be   a daring tea happening even though I didn't  tell him this but you know diling is not my   favorite but you know it's okay if the company  is good we can deal with mediocrity can I go   back and then ask whenever you say that you're  a harsh grader and whenever you say you want to   be direct of course you also want to be kind but  like do do you literally say it was great meaning   you or don't you even say it wasn't great meeting  you if it wasn't great meeting and and then just  (22:02) saying well I've enjoyed these meetings  I'm not I'm not lying when I'm telling them I'm   not I I have not I have not not enjoyed meeting  these people because it been they go through a   lot of filtering process before they show up and  I learn from everyone you know so they're they're   wonderful people but you know so I'm I'm very  direct with them like uh there were the person who   came a a few days back and uh they were interested  in in going to dinner with my girlfriend and his   wife right the four of us together now that (22:39) adds more layers of complexity yes   okay you know because she's going to ask me  a bunch of questions who what where what are   we you what are we doing here what's going on  right and to me it was obvious I didn't even I   didn't even ask her it was obvious to me that um  that's not going to be in the cards and so I just   I just told the person you know I'm sorry you  know we things are too busy we can't do it all   the best he he had a very gracious response  it was fine wonderful I think what you find   is that when you're direct with people it's (23:21) not like they are sad I think they   appreciate the cander Buy Low sell High Buy  Low sell high it's a simple concept but not   necessarily an easy concept right now High  interest rates have crushed the real estate   market prices are falling and properties are  available at a discount which means fundrise   believes now is the time to expand the fundrise  flagship funds billion doll real estate portfolio   you can add the fundrise flagship fund to your  portfolio in minutes by visiting fundrise.  (23:55) com Millennial that's Fu n d r i s c.com  Millennial carefully consider the investment   objectives risks charges and expenses of the  fundrise flagship fund before investing this   and other information can be found in the  funds perspectus at fundrise.com Flagship   this is a paid advertisement that was sort of  a tangent but I wanted to make the point that   monish very much Blends Lessons Learned From  investing into the way he lives his life while   there's probably a good business case for being  selected with your time for better or worse for  (24:31) extends that to his personal relationships  too I have difficulty being as direct with people   and protective of my time as pabra is but I  can certainly appreciate the approach to life   that he takes especially since in some ways it's  molded after Warren Buffett pivoting back toward   investing P's approach has evolved over time  though I think this description from Forbes   sounds about right they write that he quote has no  interest in a company that looks 10% undervalued   he's angl to make five times his money in few (24:59) years if he doesn't think the opportunity   is blindingly obvious he passes again that's  a pretty good way to put it do understand PB   in his approach more I want to turn to William  Green's excellent book Richard Weiser happier   and its full profile of p as green outlines  in 1994 PAB had reached $1 million in savings   and as he sat waiting in the airport he  began to read about Warren Buffett and   was astonished at how well he had racked up  investment returns earning 31% annually for   44 years up until that point Buffett would have (25:29) turned $1 invested with him in 1950 into   $144,500 by 1994 in awe of both Buffett and the  power of compounding green explains that PAB   wondered whether he could mimic Buffett's winning  approach and play a 30-year game of trying to turn   his $1 million into a billion dollars investing  as with so many things in life is one big game   that we can seek to win at and PAB loves to play  games particularly games he knows that he has an   advantage the question then is how do you win  the game as PR phrases it you've got to play  (26:04) according to the rules and the good news  is I'm playing against players who don't even know   the rules the lesson for all of us here is that  rather than trying to devise some complex way of   beating the market PAB instead opted to identify  the most skilled players at this game of investing   analyze what had made them so successful and then  mimic their approach with scrupulous detail P   told green that he is actually a Shameless  copycat and that everything in my life is   cloned I have no original ideas he says you might (26:34) say that in some sense PAB is a testament   to originality being overrated on the other hand  though there's something especially original about   his Devotion to cloning as William green puts  it in richer Wiis are happier he and PAB have   spent a lot of time together from annual visits to  Omaha for birkshire meetings to sharing a bunk bed   on an allight train ride across India along the  way he quote came to appreciate the tremendous   power of Bri's method of reverse engineering  replicating and often improving on other  (27:02) people's successful strategies pabb the  most Relentless cloner I've ever encountered has   taken the art of appropriation to such an extreme  that paradoxically it seems oddly original P's   approach is as simple as consistently observing  the world inside and outside of his industry and   whenever he would see someone doing something  that he thought was smart he forced himself to   adopt it in whatever way he could and after having  studied Buffett and Munger so closely and embraced   ing their Outlook so dearly he was surprised (27:31) to study other investors and learned   that many of them followed completely different  sets of guiding rules P's conclusion was that   most money managers own too many stocks paid too  much money for them and traded them too often in   his words P expressed concerns that mutual funds  are sitting there with 200 positions how can you   find 200 companies that will all double then I  look at what they own and they own things that   are trading at 30 times earnings and I saw  that they were all hosted there are no prize   for frenetic activity in markets (28:01) instead investing is mostly   a game of waiting for those rare moments when  the odds of making money vastly out away the   odds of losing it at least in P's view as green  continues in his book this is a skill that PAB   learned from Buffett who has been sublimely  indifferent to the cries of the crowd and who   can idly twiddle his thumbs for many years such as  during the 1970 to 1972 Market Euphoria where he   felt almost everything was trading at a crazy  valuation when markets naturally returned to   Earth in 1973 Buffett promptly bought a major (28:31) stake in the Washington Post company   which he held for four decades for Bri compares  the approach to being like a Spearman standing   next to a stream most of the time you're doing  nothing until suddenly a fat juicy salmon swims   by and then you spring into action to Spirit  and then it may be 6 months again before that   next salmon goes by contrast that approach  with the more typical money manager who   takes many small and frequent bets to quote  unquote diversify from P's perspective the   odds just aren't in your favor enough to (29:00) rationalize all that activity in   this vein he's known for saying that the number  one skill in investing is patience specifically   extreme patients for example in the 2008 crash  PAB made 10 investments in short succession over   about two months whereas in more normal times  he bought only three stocks across all of 2012   and none in 2013 given his Supreme patience you  won't be surprised to learn that his favorite   quote is from the philosopher blae pascow who  says that all of Humanity's problems stem from   man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone (29:33) similarly you might say that birkshire   shareholders have profited hugely from  Buffett's inclination toward Financial   Tranquility by distracting himself with playing  online Bridge which helps counteract the natural   bias for Action in investing all in all after  first setting out to turn his $1 million into   1 billion P surpassed at Mark years sooner than  expected after 10 exiting his nest egg in less   than 5 years he didn't off friend friends and  family interested in financial help to launch   a fund to manage their money William green (30:03) continues to explain that for PAB   one of the secrets of successful investing is to  avoid anything that's too hard he automatically   passes on investments in countries like  Russia and Zimbabwe even their lack of   respect for shareholders rights and he avoids  all startups and IPOs since they're unlikely to   be available for investment at bargain prices  relatedly he's never shorted a stock because   the maximum possible return is 100% if the  stock Falls to zero whereas the losses have   no cap if the stock keeps rising and rising and (30:33) that's not the sort of risk return profile   he finds attractive in short Simplicity rules  for PAB when asked by Green why more people don't   Embrace his systematic method for cloning he told  him quote they're not as Shameless as me they have   more ego to be a great cloner you have to check  your ego at the door so those are the highlights   from William Green's delightful book richual Wier  happier and the profile specifically on Minish   I would of course recommend that you  read the whole thing for yourself   but hopefully that helps paint a more (31:03) complete picture of who p is as   we continue on in learning from the master  cloner I want to turn to his 2019 lecture to   students from peaking University it's about  an hour and a half long and an absolute joy   to listen to Because P again is such a gifted  Storyteller he shares with the students that   while it's tempting to think otherwise not  every great business is a great investment   that is not to say you won't earn a decent rate  of return by investing in great businesses which   is something we've talked a lot about in (31:31) recent episodes but at least with   mega caps the room for upside isn't enough  for those Investments to generate these sort   of outsized performance that's going to enable  you to compound your wealth at more than 20 or   30% per year if as a game investing was simply  about investing in the companies with the best   business models it would be an easy game to  play but it's not so simple because almost   everyone else will see high quality businesses  for what they are too with a massive payments   company like master card that is an incredible (31:59) business High barriers to entry oligopoly   and high Returns on invested Capital but of  course it trades at a price earnings ratio of   40 which is more than twice the historic Market  average so not only is the company already very   large limiting its ability to massively grow  its market value but also investors are already   paying a rich price for that quality part of  what distinguishes PAB is that he has such   ambitious goals for his investment returns he's  not happy with simply beating the market by a   few percentage points over time he wants to (32:27) absolutely crush it and to do that   you have to be extremely aggressive and  well we talked earlier about how a single   high quality investment held for long enough  like holding Walmart since the 70s could be a   GameChanger the wrinkle here is that buying  into Walmart then was when the company was   still at an early stage in its life cycle from  October 1984 through 2000 Walmart increased its   market value by 30X for Walmart to do that again  from 2024 through 2040 its market capitalization   would be over $1 19.5 trillion which is (32:58) roughly the size of China's entire   economy today so obviously you just can't expect  Walmart to be a 30 bagger at this point in its   life cycle which is okay and shareholders may  continue to do quite well with it but it's not   going to have the massive outperformance that it  once did either even though Walmart continues to   have an incredible business it's not as  simple as recognizing that and buying the   company's stock and then becoming vastly  wealthy this is a conversation pde tells   the peing University students that he's had at (33:26) length with his friend gu spear who happen   to love owning highquality Blue Chip companies  like MasterCard after guy had already made a 12x   return on MasterCard for Bri out to convince  him that he wouldn't be able to earn those   same returns again with the company due  to its size so he should sell and look   for opportunities with bigger payoffs while  MasterCard was and is still a great company   P doesn't think it's a great investment on the  other hand with the small Indian company suntech   realy he doesn't think it's thator of a (33:52) business yet but he loves it as   an investment that is to say good companies can  make for great Investments and great companies   may only make for good Investments with that idea  in mind he challenged guy to a bet in 2018 to see   which stock would do the best or the next 12  years through 2030 the case for suntech realy   is that it's a property developer in Mumbai  and after getting to know the management of   the company not only does PAB think they have  a great grasp on Capital allocation but he   knows they have this long-term Tailwind that (34:21) other investors may not be patient   enough to wait for and that Tailwind comes  from the fact that over the next few decades   as India continues to IND realize Mumbai is going  to get torn down and rebuilt in the same way that   happened in many Chinese cities as they modernized  and as Mumbai gets redeveloped and grows into one   of the biggest cities in the world if not the  biggest then sunch will be a major beneficiary   of that but in the meantime there's this cloud of  uncertainty hanging over whether this will really  (34:47) happen and on what timeline and that  makes for a great opportunity in a company that   at least based on its track record isn't clearly  exceptional in the same way that MasterCard is   yet P argues as investors it's our duty to peel  back the onion behind the facade of an obscure   historically average real estate company in Mumbai  HEC is a company that's poised to grow explosively   in the coming years boosted by India's inevitable  advance and a sound management team and forri is   more than happy to hold suntech for a decade or (35:15) longer and see if that comes to fruition   funny enough around halfway through that bet  with guy spear it actually seems that guy is   winning with MasterCard up around 90% in the  past five years whereas suntech is up about   half as much at 40 % and that 48% is for the  price in rupees which has depreciated by 18%   against the US dollar in the past few years so  sunx performance in US dollar terms is actually   lower but still we will see who ultimately  wins in a few years and I think P's Point   remains regardless of whether he wins the BET (35:46) great companies especially if they reach a   certain size are not necessarily great Investments  and more average companies with undervalued shares   or a large runway for growth can in fact be  great Investments I'd add to this to say that   market prices for stocks are fundamentally about  expectations since companies are valued based on   the earnings they will create in the future the  challenge with investing in large well-known great   businesses is that expectations are going to be  high great companies have high expectations for  (36:13) their performance and if they do stumble  they'll pay dearly for it as famously happened to   Coca-Cola when it experimented with changing its  signature formula for its drinks called New Coke   that did not go over well to say the least but if  you can find a company that the market thinks is   just good but actually has hidden modes that make  it a great business like prde thinks is the case   with suntech then you can benefit from not only  owning a company that can compound returns at high   rates but you'll also have the Tailwind of the (36:39) price to earnings ratio rising in your   favor as the market eventually realizes how good  the company is there are over 50,000 stocks that   trade publicly around the world and by P's  estimate around 3,000 of them are severely   undervalued while he probably can't understand  most of those 3,000 companies all he needs to   do is to be able to understand three or four  of them well enough and he thinks he'll do   just fine my takeaway is that to beat the market  you need to look where the market isn't looking   while MasterCard probably has 30 different (37:09) analysts tracking it on Wall Street   some smaller and more obscure company may be  structurally underf followed which makes its   pricing less efficient and creates more  opportunities to buy in at a discounted   valuation either way though I really like how  pde tells the peaking University students that   you'll only ever completely understand a business  once you own it and I think that so true when you   have skin in the game there's just a different  mindset subconsciously you have more reason to   care about whether you actually understand the (37:35) details behind the business in a way   that's not really possible when you only own it  on paper in my personal investing I've taken a   similar approach where I'll sometimes begin with  a small position in something and that will either   drive me to become more interested and dive more  deeply in understanding it or I'll lose interest   and just drop it I don't do it all that often but  when I do it's when I'm on the fence about the   opportunity and I want to give myself a extra  boost to look at it more seriously and once I  (38:01) have money on the line even if it's a  very small amount it's much easier for me to get   excited about digging into the weeds of it I would  be remiss to talk about PAB today without at least   touching on his wonderful book the dundo investor  the natural question here obviously is what is   dundo as Puri defines it dundo is a garati word  dun comes from the Sanskrit word Donna meaning   wealth Dand literally translated means Endeavors  that create wealth the street translation of dundo   is simply business and what is business if not an (38:32) Endeavor to create wealth more tangibly   speaking you might say that to make dundo  investments is to find nearly risk-free Bets   with massive upside the classic heads I win  Tails I don't lose much type of investment to   show dundo in action PAB recounts the story of  the patels an Indian family that in just over 30   years owned over half of the motels in America  with no money and little formal education the   patels immigrated to Southern California  in the 1970s and began doing blueco collar   work in the motel business at the same time (39:05) the US was entering a deep recession   and gas prices were astronomically high so  many families were skipping vacations to cut   costs hotel and motel occupancy rates fell very  low and as Banks foreclosed and properties a   number of motels went to Market in distress at  fire sell prices seeing the opportunity to buy   these assets from motivated sellers Papa Patel  realized they could purchase a motel business   with 80% or 90% Bank financing even better  is that he could house his entire family in   the motel for free while they work to run (39:35) the business and if the business   flopped Papa Patel knew that he and his wife  could always go back to working overtime to   save up enough money and just try again this  was a classic dundo bat with a low risk and a   very high reward with just a few thousand down  payment the Batel bought the motel and saved   on all their expenses since they didn't need to  hire anyone outside of the family that combined   with their Frugal lifestyle enabled the Mot PS  to become quickly profitable as you can imagine   the patels never lost their work ethic or caution (40:03) and oversaw a disciplined expansion across   the country as they snapped up everything from  motels to gas stations convenience stores and   even luxury hotels the patels were a lowcost  producer and they undercut competitors with   prices that more commercial operations could  hardly fathom charging work ethic business   savviness and a bias toward dramatic action  when the odds are massively in your favor is   the epitome of dundo P's Own dundo Story came  from launching trte a software business when   he was 25 years old with just $30,000 in (40:33) retirement savings and $70,000 in   max credit card limits that he could tap into  as needed PAB dug into bankruptcy law in the   US and realized that if his business fails he  could just declare bankruptcy and essentially   start from scratch again so he felt like he  didn't have much to lose while the upside   was that he could become independently wealthy  while PAB worked his job during the day before   and afterwards he worked on building his company  and put his paycheck toward over head expenses   once his startup reached $200,000 per year in (41:01) Revenue he quit his day job the worst   case in his view was that he might lose $30,000  in savings and a job he didn't really care about   but that was all since he had no wife or family  to support in the best case scenario the idea   might make him a millionaire which it did  P's model for making dundo bets distills   down to investing in simple existing businesses  where there's low risk but High uncertainty for   example with the motels they were lowrisk  in that the patels personally had little to   lose but also because Matel were not likely to be (41:32) phased out of existence there was just a   recession that created a cloud of uncertainty  over the business which if anything created   an opportunity for patient investors like  the patels even better if you can snap up   distressed assets where the seller is being  forced to sell because of a bank for closing   on them to be dundo is to always have an eye  open for dundo investment opportunities and   betting heavily when the upside significantly  outweighs the downside in his own way Papa   Patel was a cloner like Ry rather than try and (41:59) launch the next hot tech company and   create some disruptive innovation Papa  Patel embraced the business model that   he knew was proven to work did so at distress  prices and then built a lowcost moat by being   able to profitably afford rates that none  of his competitors could while no one knew   when the recession would end that was hurting  Matel businesses Papa Matel knew as a question   of when not if and that uncertainty gave him the  cover to buy and build a business at a cost that   he would otherwise never be able to do so at the (42:27) example with the patels really resonates   with me because I know I personally spend a  lot of time looking at businesses to own in   public markets when there are probably so  many wonderful privately owned businesses   that I could acquire and operate myself or hire  someone else to operate I also appreciate the   personal elements being factored into dundo  risk taking here as in p felt he had nothing   to lose with transc because he was young  didn't have that much money and had no one   depending on him so of course he could afford to (42:53) take what looks like a big risk because   it wasn't really that big of a risk same with  the while popup Hotel did have dependence they   were already very poor and they were accustomed  to living that way so losing all their savings   and a failed Motel business wasn't really as  big of a risk as it might seem on paper but   obviously the upside has been higher than  I'm sure they could have ever dreamed a   dundo mindset in my opinion is about not only  pursuing high reward bets but also bringing a   financial and personal perspective to your risk (43:20) tolerance if the patels lived stable   middle class lives they probably wouldn't  have jumped on the opportunity to buy a   motel business and if PAB had a wife and  kids depending on him he might have just   kept his day job it's not that you can't chase  big opportunities if you have a family it's just   that you have more at stake and that needs to  be factored into your risk reward calculations   the dundo investor is a pretty easy to read book  but it touches on the nuances of risk and reward   in a way that few other books capture with (43:48) that said I want to begin wrapping   up today's episode Manish p is a uniquely  eccentric independent thinker devoted to   being as pragmatic as possible his Common Sense  approach to investing takes cloning to the extreme   yet that cloning has worked out wonderfully for  him and enabled him to build relationships with   the very people he cloned like Warren Buffett  and Charlie Munger P Bri is one of my favorite   investors to listen to because he really does  tell the best stories someone who has spent   so much time hanging out with Charlie Munger (44:15) naturally has some interesting things   to say we haven't really touched on it today  but what's also great about B is not only his   Devotion to teaching others but also his Devotion  to charitable work his charity in India is called   dakshana and his many lives for the better if  you're curious to learn more about it I'll link   to it in the show notes but Bri reminds me  that investing is a game and to win at it we   should learn as much as possible from the best  players of that game and after spending many   years carefully studying others he too became (44:43) one of the best players at the game of   investing who ironically I am now studying he  also reminds me that investing should be fun as   I said it's a game and one we choose to play  if picking individual stocks is stressful or   overwhelming for you then don't do it just go  buy an index fund PAB and others like him get   immense Joy from trying to stack the odds in  their favor and win more than anyone else and   investing and that's why he'd be happy to  do it even if it wasn't for money whether   it's in investing or something else P's most (45:13) important lesson for us all is to go   and find that thing we're so passionate  about we continue doing it even if we won   the lottery tomorrow because again it's not about  the money to put a bow on this conversation about   Manish PAB today let me leave you with one of my  favorite quotes from him he says the following   you don't make money when you buy stocks and you  don't make money when you sell stocks you make   money by waiting that's all for today folks  I hope you have the patience to embrace your   inner dundo investor I'll see you again next week (45:42) hey guys this is your Millennial investing   host Shan Ali when I first started learning as  a value investor I had no idea what direction   to go in there's just so much to try and wrap  your head around but it's never too late to   get smarter about Stock Investing from the  ground up after spending years interviewing   and studying the best stock investors as  a company at the investors podcast Network   I've worked to distill those learnings into a  simple course for you why did I do that so I   can help you master the principles of excellent (46:12) lifelong investing I was a fan of the   investors podcast for years before I joined the  team and I always wanted a course that broke down   the most important insights from a decade of  interviews with leading investors the course   is great for both beginners and pros from study  studing what the Legends actually do to small   practical ways to build your wealth over time I'll  take you through 10 different sections covering   the basics of what a stock actually is and how  stock markets work to strategies to optimize your  (46:40) retirement savings picking great companies  what to look for in ETFs how much you should   invest and how to monitor your Investments plus so  much more by the time you're done you'll be ready   to invest in the stock market learning plenty  of tricks from the pros along the way to access   the course and begin learning how to invest  like the Legends just visit thinest podcast.  (47:01) com getstarted with stocks that's the  investors podcast.com slet started with stocks   and for a limited time you can use code mi15  for a 15% discount at checkout that's mi15   when checking out as Buffett once said I want  to have my cake and eat it too I like quality   businesses I like great Capital allocation I  like high Returns on Capital but I demand value   finding great Compounders over time is namely  a question of correctly identifying business   quality and price can be used as a hedge against  whether you're able to do that correctly if you  (47:37) buy a company you think is a highquality  compounder based both on its track record and   opportunities looking forward and you can buy  it near it's F of twoe low you're probably   going to come out okay on the investment even  if its Returns on Capital going forward are   considerably lower than expected you may or  may not earn a market beating profit on it   but you'll at least have a decent company  and you'll probably have paid a very re