Iran War 'Final Nail' in Coffin of US Economy – 'It's Spiraling Out of Control': Melody Wright
Summary
Energy Crisis: The Middle East war and disrupted shipping/refining raise fuel costs and risk global shortages, pressuring consumers and inflation near term.
Defense Spending: Heightened conflict implies increased demand for weapons and defense capabilities, with investors likely rotating toward military and defense names.
AI Bubble: Signs of an AI-led tech bubble leak as data center plans stall and sentiment shifts, potentially triggering a broader rotation away from mega-cap tech.
Private Credit: Gated withdrawals, downgrades, and loan write-downs point to contagion risks in private credit and asset managers, echoing early credit-crisis dynamics.
Housing Downturn: Rising cancellations, softening rents, and more cities turning negative YoY suggest a deepening housing slowdown with affordability still strained.
US Debt Default: The guest raises the possibility of a U.S. debt default amid geopolitical escalation, implying a break in the current world order.
Gold Standard: Discussion of a potential long-run return toward gold-backed money contrasts with near-term selling as investors seek liquidity.
Market Stance: Near term calls for caution and liquidity; opportunities may emerge later in energy infrastructure and defense as the macro path clarifies.
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day. Today is March 26th, 2026 and I'm thrilled to welcome Melody Wright to the program. An analyst in real estate, macro, and technology and the publisher of the M3 Melody Substack. Melody believes the rapidly escalating war in the Middle East is the final nail in the coffin for the US economy as wartime spending ramps up and the political class openly engages in the brazen looting of the system in a desperate bid to get their hands on as much wealth and power as possible before it all collapses catastrophically. Melody unpacks why she thinks the US could ultimately be planning to default on their debt, what that looks like for the rest of us, and how we might pick up the pieces as the dust settles. All of this and so much more ahead in my conversation with Melody Wright. Melody Wright, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. Now, last time I had you on the show, you said the consumer was dead and the economy in the US was far worse than most understand. Now that we're kneedeep in a kinetic war in the Middle East that is estimated to be costing approximately $900 million a day with the administration requesting an additional $200 billion to keep the war going. Does this accelerate the economic decline in America? >> I think so. You know, there's obviously um as we need more weapons and things like that, there will be companies that do better than others. But um for the irregular consumer, the only thing that was giving them any latitude at all was gas prices. And now, you know, it it seems crazy to most people that 25 cents, 50 cents, a dollar can make more a gallon can make such a huge difference, but it does because there is just no wiggle room. And so, you know, uh what I remember 22 very well, like we had to give people, um gas cards just to get them to work cuz they couldn't afford it. And so, you know, in the United States, we drive a lot and we don't have a lot of public transportation. And so, um yeah, like this is a big deal. this just kind of puts the nail in the coffin and there's, you know, and we're continuing to see layoffs and so there's nothing really coming at this, you know, in the the near term for um for to change this picture. So, yeah, it's it's it accelerates that it makes it worse. And I think, you know, we're starting to see kind of um everything sort of fall apart at the same time. So I'm I'm not laughing at that situation, but it's it's just it's kind of unreal to watch, you know, um in real time. >> Absolutely. And we are also hearing a lot of talk about the potential for a global recession largely driven by the kind of soft closure of the straight of Hormuse. They're letting certain vessels through if they agree to pay a toll. Supposedly, they want to accept Renman B. I've heard also that they also accept USDT. Um but nonetheless, there's a fee for ships to pass through and of course uh those connected to America or Israel, it could be a whole different situation. Energy infrastructure also being destroyed. I saw Eric Nuttle who who runs a prominent energy fund on X saying this is the biggest energy crisis of his lifetime that could be facing us down. Um what are your thoughts there on just the overall impact on the global economy and how bad things could really get as a result of this war? Yeah, you know, we kind of live in a global globally synchronized economy. Um, you know, and I think that as one one suffers, others suffer as well. And I think the current view right now is that the US is going to be fine because we have access, you know, to to oil. But the problem is, um, you know, like jet fuel that's comes from China for the most part. Also, I don't think people have a good understanding of how we refine things here, but we get things from other places. And then we can't I mean, we've already seen several refineries in the United States get hit in small explosions or like we're not hearing Jesse like so we're in the fog of war right now. And I think that, you know, people are holding on to these false hopes like and and our administration is fueling that cuz they can't really afford anything else. Um but, you know, we cannot put it past any a state actor to take out one of our, you know, a large uh part of our supplies. So, yeah, this is um this is this is this situation is crazy and I think um it it's spiraling. Um, and I think, yeah, it's it's going to impact the world. I mean, you just we're just now hearing that 500 gas stations in Australia have run out of gas. You know, you're seeing it in the Philippines. Uh, California is already saying, you know, sending out warnings. Um, so I think we're going to see some issues here. But yeah, this is uh this is going this is going to hurt the world economy. to your point that with that infrastructure being hit, it's not about just opening the straight and and there the oil is in everything as you well know Jesse. I mean it's just in everything and so you know like people's face moisturizers like you know in making the contacts that I have on right now and so I just think people don't even understand. I think Dowo Chemical came out yesterday and said they were doubling the price of plastic and that we use plastic to package everything. So, you know, this is um although my long-term thesis is deflation, like short term, we are going to see some inflation or at least increased, you know, cost of goods. >> Well, talk to us about >> which is not good for the economy. Go ahead. >> Yeah. Uh talk to us about that long-term deflation. What what what do you think will bring us there? Is this going to be a a darker scenario such as a deflationary bust? Um or or will it just be better prices for everybody? How do you see that playing out? >> Yeah, you know, the cure for high prices is high prices. You know, we can all talk crazy monetary theory and all this blah blah blah, but in reality, that's that's just the truth. And um so I think you're going to see kind of a deflationary bust. Um and I think that, you know, it's just getting started. It hasn't really started in earnest. You know, speaking of the housing market in particular, uh there's there are record cancellations again in February. I mean, people are getting to the closing table and realizing they can't close. They can't either the property inspection came back with a problem they don't want to deal with or the insurance was too much or, you know, they just can't qualify because of what's going on. So yeah, it's I I think that we are we are just coming on to the top of the roller coaster and you know rents had just started to come down, but that's just going to continue and continue cuz nobody can afford you know housing right now and especially with and now gas and and especially with layoffs like this is just getting uglier and uglier fast. I want to turn to the private credit market because we've seen an increase in funds capping investor withdrawals. This cannot be a good sign. Break that down for us and the potential implications of a crash in the private credit market for the broader economy. >> Yeah. So, now we go to the top of the K like you and I were just primarily talking about the bottom of the K, but the top of the K, they're the people that are invested in these things. And when they're told they can't get their money out, that changes their math. um you know just like it changes someone's math when their house sits for sale for a year like you know things just you start and so then your your your spending starts to change you know um and so yeah but breaking this down essentially I mean you know I did some diving into blue owl and just the things that these people are invested in I mean they give loans out to everybody Jesse and I don't think they did any due diligence I mean, not really. Um, and so and and we don't we don't know what's in all this stuff. Um, we don't know how these companies are doing, but they're not doing very well. And you can see the contagion spreading. You can see Apollo also gating, you know, Cliff Water. This one I think we're going to hear a lot about. Uh, this is the one that just got a rating agency downgrade. um you know and importantly more importantly I should say is what Chase did when they wrote down um some loans that that is a huge huge like megaphone to the market like uh this is a big deal and it it honestly I it's like step one of a credit crisis and you know I think that you're going to and and then you know and immediately when it happened I said the rating agencies are about to start acting because you know they don't they don't independently find this stuff, they wait till it it's too much trouble. And so, and sure enough, they did. They started doing some downgrowth. So, this could be massive contagion and become, you know, kind of a Leman style event. >> The sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver, Gold, Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. Take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com. Make sure to tell them of course that Commodity Culture sent you. And now back to the interview. Let's talk about the housing market. You alluded to it earlier. You recently posted some data on your ex from Danielle D. Martino Booth's Daily Feather noting that the top 20% of income earners accounted for around 57% of US real estate wealth as of the third quarter of 2025. This is a pretty shocking statistic. Walk us through how it impacts the real estate market. Well, >> I think you've been seeing it impact it, right? Like the housing market has been frozen for the last 3 years. Just frozen. The only transactions have been those um you know higher priced homes which is what kept that median price up. And so our top 20% has been carrying everything, but it gets to a point where it it just doesn't make sense. Like they've got all the homes they need. They, you know, plus when you're staring down, let's say they do have like five homes and they're looking if they're especially if they're investors, all of a sudden their rent I mean their uh rent prices are going down and uh you know property tax is going up, insurance is going up, electricity bills are going up, replacement costs are going up. you know, this just math doesn't make any sense anymore. And so, you know, I just the housing market um sputtered along at lower than almost 2008 levels based on this top 20% transacting, but they're pulling back as well. Um, and it's, you know, it it's not going to sustain these 20% can't sustain the whole housing market. But to our previous conversation about the top of the K getting impacted just think about that if they own 57% of the assets and some of them not all of them but a section of them are getting crushed what happens those mar those real estate assets come to market and and that is going to happen. >> Well you release a lot of data on the real estate market on your Substack as well as on X. What are the most important trends you're seeing that you think more people should be paying attention to right now? >> Yeah, I think those cancellations are a big deal. Um, you know, I think if you want to know where sentiment is, just watch the mortgage rate and uh, you know, what is just happened with all of this war is we had gotten below five for like 30 sec. I mean not five below 6% for like 30 seconds and then now we're up to about 6.5 um yesterday. So you know watch that you're going to that's going to tell you a lot about sentiment sentiment um and because the sellers also realize uh that rates aren't coming down and so that's why many of them pulled back last year. Um, but honestly at this juncture, uh, it's really going to be about watching those home prices, believe it or not. And I, you know, Jesse, for the first time ever in my series, you know, I track 85 markets, um, we have 45 of my cities are year-over-year negative, uh, compared to 17 last year this time. So that you are seeing it spread. So, you know, just pay attention to kind of what's going on in your local market and your home prices. Uh that'll tell you where we are. Um but yeah, you know, before this I would say pay attention to all kinds of things like but we're really to the point now where um look at those look at those mortgage rates for sentiment and pay attention to what prices are doing in your market. >> Do you think the silver lining to that is that homes could become affordable once again? Uh is is that something that people could perhaps look forward to in terms of potentially taking advantage of these lower prices up ahead or do you believe just the broader damage that's going to occur to the economy in general is going to give people that much less purchasing power that it won't really matter? >> It's going to be both. But you know, this is why I've been talking to people for 3 years like get ready for this. you know, pay down your debt, save your money, and you know, I'm not an idiot and think that not buying Starbucks every day is going to get you a down payment in a year, but it's a mortgage payment almost. Um, you know, so just save your money. Um, you know, earn what you can on it, you know, and uh because you can still get interest on that money. Uh, and just wait. But, you know, the people that are going to be crushed, Jesse, unfortunately, are the people that got are overlevered and they got into debt and they, you know, believe the hype and spent on credit cards and buy now pay later to do vacations and experiences that, you know, um, they're probably going to wish they hadn't done because there is going to be, in my opinion, a real opportunity, uh, here in the future for people with a steady steady work, steady income, low debt to be able to afford homes. Again, >> I want to turn to government corruption and perhaps one of the most blatant examples of insider trading by the political class. We saw 6 million barrels of Brent and WTI oil sold minutes before Trump posted on Truth Social that there were some very um productive talks happening with Iran. Now, that is a claim since denied by the Iranian regime. So, at the most cynical way you could look at this is he was literally making it up to make money for himself and a circle of insiders. Now, that wouldn't surprise anyone. I think it feels like law and order has been thrown out the window both at home domestically as well as internationally. I don't think there'll be an official investigation. Is this just another example of the 1% siphoning their wealth at the exp from others? And what are your thoughts on this the potential of this insider trade and will we see more of it up ahead? >> Yeah, I think this is just business as usual. I think we're more sophisticated now at our ability to see it uh when it's happening. You know, I think about 9/11 all the time, right? Um that was a very impactful event in my life and somebody traded off of it and did well. Um so, so and that was what 25 years ago, Jesse. So, I'm not expecting any law and order here. Um, and yeah, I think I think what we're witnessing in many ways is kind of the last gasp of this system. And people are just they're they're taking anything that's not dailed down. They're taking they're taking profits. You've got insider selling everywhere. like you know in many ways I think about how April of last year was kind of uh it was your it was your warning and a lot of people didn't want to take it um but basically it it was a warning and we've had almost a year to act and instead people just a lot of people put their head in the sand more retail got in which I think is always part of the plan to some degree because it's an it's exit liquidity um but yeah this I mean it's disgusting. I don't know what else to say, but this is a life in hyper financialization and everybody's just taking what they can. Um, and I, you know, that's not I think these things matter and I think that it, you know, ultimately there's going to be a a price to pay. Um, but, you know, right now that it it just seems like we're just witnessing, you know, looting. It's just looting of the system. And you referred to the last gasp of this system. Is that the fiat currency system? Is that simply the hyper financialization of everything? And what is there on the other side of this? Is is a collapse of some sort coming that we will need to rebuild from? Does the entire political structure, the system, the way it works now, need to be torn down and rebuilt? How do you see things advancing here? And and what does that last gasp look like? >> Yeah. So, you want me to earn my title, Queen of Doom, I guess. um you know uh so I I ask people you know to pay attention to what's actually happening versus what everybody's saying. And so I think right now everybody's got whiplash because they actually believe these headlines. Um these headlines are ridiculous. This is this is a scop. This is what happens in war. But watch what is happening. And when you watch what is happening, Jesse, when you watch us let infrastructure get hit, infrastructure, then it seems to me like we are taking a wrecking ball to our current world order and that includes fiat. Um, and honestly, if I just look at the facts and and this is I came to this conclusion last week, Jesse, this is a very new one for me and I haven't shared with hardly anybody. and so you'll be my first show to do it, but I think this might be um we're on the road to actually defaulting on our debt. And um you know, bring bring back gold as the world currency. Um you know, think of right we just got a headline Turkey uh just you know it's gold reserves. They've spent more out of them. I think it's a record uh because this is what's going to I mean you know people are going to be grasping for anything and if you're you know why would you why would you invest in long-term US treasuries when we're acting like this like it I think I just also saw another headline and again things are changing so quickly you can't even keep up that we're we're going to take some funds that other nations put together for Ukraine. We're going to take it and replenish our you know our weaponry. It's like who wants to play with that bully? I mean, you know, and so I think they know it and I and so it's not necessarily that, oh, Brics is going to take over or this or this or that, but I think we know we have come to some sort of conclusion that this debt is not sustainable and because every action that's being taken right now makes no sense. Not none of you care about international law. None of you care about order. So, uh, I do think that perhaps, you know, they might have wanted to get there a different way, but this is this is how we may get there. And what are your thoughts to the theory that the reason the US is acting this way is to protect their status as the global hedgeimon. Um, I've I've spoken to a few people and also heard some analysis that actually this is really about China and stopping the flow of oil for renmanb to China. uh reducing the ability for China to get access to cheap oil to then prevent them from becoming the next global superpower uh and also to prevent a multipolar world from emerging that the US is essentially like a cornered animal that is about to lose its its uh hegemony and it's fighting desperately to maintain it. What do you think about that? >> I think that's one layer of the narrative. I think we're being fed about 15 layers right now. So whatever layer you're at, it's going to be there to and I think the very top one of the topper layers is this China narrative. Um I I just I mean if if Iran's saying you can you can you can have some oil like you know they can also partner with Russia although you know we've hit some well Ukraine has hit some oil infrastructure in Russia but I'm pretty sure I mean honestly I think it's going to happen to us as well. Um I just don't believe that. I I just I think that this isn't how you do it. I think though that blaming them as the bad guy, I mean they are collapsing demographically, collapsing. Collapsing. And anybody who's spent time over there, I don't think that you walk away saying they're going to take over the world. Um, and I don't want to get into all that, but you know, I've been there. I lived in Taiwan. Like, we have a very uh big misunderstanding of Asia. Um, and I think that's on purpose. So, yeah, I think that's one of the narratives, but Jesse, I don't think that's what's going on. Like, this is just this just and if that was I think the timeline would be different. I think we would have waited a little bit longer. Um, this this feels uh very different. So, that but that's this is my opinion. Um, you know what? And just to give you some background, and I know we're probably running out of time, but you know, like I I studied I studied propaganda in school. I I you know, I had a Russian minor. I studied Soviet propaganda and then I moved on to studying, you know, US propaganda during Vietnam. And and I think you learn how to watch where the convergence points of the narratives to then create a full picture of what's happening. Not what they're saying, but where are the narratives converging? And so this is what I've been on the lookout for for weeks because my my brain was blown. Like this just didn't make any sense. But I've kind of arrived at a place where I think this is more about uh about our debt than probably pretty much anything else. So, but we shall see. And I could be wrong and something could happen tomorrow. And you know, but we are certainly here in the United States being dissuaded from traveling, being dissu I mean, like I canceled a trip last week. I wasn't about to go sit in an airport for 6 hours and then maybe miss my flight or whatever. And at the same time, we're being told about a homeland plot um you know, in the United States. And so people are scared for that reason. So for whatever reason um you know, it looks like we're about to get, you know, uh locked down again. It it's just it in some form or another. And I know that sounds like conspiracy theory, but they're already talking about reducing driving and things like this. And so if we're fine, why why why are they talking about that? because there there has been some of those uh rumors, reports circulating online that energy lockdowns are going to be the next thing and like you mentioned in Australia, they're running out of of diesel. Um obviously a lot of those countries that rely heavily on the Middle East for their oil and oil based products are going through it, Pakistan, Philippines, etc. Um so certainly precarious times. I do want to quickly just jump into the point on China for a moment. You've spent time there. You said you spent time in Taiwan. I lived in China for about a year and a half in like 2007208. I was in my 20s just having a good time. I didn't know anything about the global economy or what was going on. So my experience not notwithstanding we hear different narratives. On the one extreme what you're saying the demographics are they're going through major challenges there. Obviously they had massive issues in their real estate market. And you know those on the farthest side of that spectrum would say they're on the verge of collapse. You're Peter's eye hands who come out and say China won't even be relevant in 5 years. And then on the other side you have people who give the exact opposite view of China's the next global superpower. In fact Brian Beerich I believe his name is. He said that that that's one of the guys who was proposing this theory. This war is all about stopping China. He says in 5 years in 10 years max could be 5 years China will become the indisputable global superpower of the world and it's irreversible and that's what this war is about. So I wonder where you sit in that in that spectrum with with your experience with the region. I think probably in the middle, you know, I don't I don't believe what Zhon said. And, you know, and I think now that everybody's more familiar with him in general, he has a, you know, he's kind of I think he's he plays a role um a certain role, you know, uh as a a narrative catcher, I should say. He catches the dissident. Um but but on the other hand, you know, I'm actually curious about what you think because I just I I spending time there can't even imagine and I remember coming back cuz I was there in 2005. Uh so not too long before you and thinking we've got this all wrong. But you know what's really happened, Jesse, is we've turned more like China uh during that time than anything else. Like so. And I think that's the reason I'm in the middle is that so much of our business, so much of our technology, all of this, I mean, we China's everywhere in the United States. And in many ways, we've just become more like them. Um, so I don't know. I think that might be more part of their strategy than, you know, like this dominance and war and things like that. So I'm probably in the middle. But what do you think? >> Yeah, that's a good question. And and uh I think that obviously we see a lot of hype online with these mega cities. You know, it's like Bladeunner, everything's so advanced. Was it the CEO of Ford who came back from from China and said where we can't out compete these people the cars they're building are so amazing. They have an incredible EV range, the BYD cars. And I've heard that they're very far ahead in certain areas of robotics. So when it comes to certain industrial aspects, China certainly has an edge in some case, but they have many problems as well. They're a massive country with a massive population with many different interests um all kind of combating each other and it's not the rosy picture that's painted on social media but at the same time it's not you know I was there it was relatively free. You can't criticize the government. It's it's not a a free democracy or or or a place where you're allowed to have your own say. Um there's also a heavy hand of the state. It's like kind of a state capitalist state controlled capitalist system which makes it interesting. You know, a lot of the EV uh cars there were driven by uh government intervention, government grants, this sort of thing. So, it's such a murky picture to really peel back and uncover that I'm also very uncertain as to where all of this is headed. But in terms of it becoming the next global superpower, anything's possible, particularly if they've been building up their military as much as people are saying. If it does come to a hot war, um we'd have to see how, you know, things could be contested in the region. If they do attempt to take back Taiwan, whether that's through diplomatic means, whether that's through subversion or through a direct kinetic war, um or invasion, uh that could change the picture as well. But I'm I'm pretty in the dark on this one. All of that to say, I'm not really sure. Um, but I I want to move on now to gold getting hit because you spoke about gold potentially making a comeback. A lot of people I spoke on the show in terms of being in the monetary system. A lot of people on this show also believe that. What why has gold been falling so much since the war started in your view? Do you think this is people scrambling for liquidity? Is this a sell everything moment? What's your view on that? >> Yeah, it's a sell everything and and plus we know there is a ton of speculation in gold. like, you know, when when when it just started rising, you you got to know everybody went in there and did some sort of speculation. So, I think everybody that's really in gold knew to be cautious uh because it had gotten a little crazy and and all the wrong people were getting involved. And so, I think that's what this is. It's a sell everything. I mean, that's it in my opinion. And and you know, I got to be honest. um and all my years talking thinking about macro like I never even thought this was a possibility. it it has taken this to really um change my mind because I it's like you just sit and you think and you think and nothing else makes sense why we would do this and and so you know um yeah I I feel like we're changing world order and we want to uh we you know maybe we want to go to this multipolar world where our interests do come first uh but to get there I But I think that there's always going to be a part of in its current form, our administration that's going to be interested in what's going on around the world and will probably, you know, participate in other ways. Uh, but I do think this is we're breaking the system is what it feels like to me. >> Now, last time you were on the show, we also discussed the AI bubble and the potential implications of it bursting. Year to date, the big three indices indices are all down a few percentage points. Could we be witnessing the beginning of the end for the magni magnificent seven, the techdriven mega caps? And could this war perhaps be the trigger that brings us into a real bare market? >> Yeah, I think I think that there has been a pen prick in the bubble uh since Deepseek, right? And I think that you've had a lot of people that know better um getting out and and talking and you know all these data centers are coming to a halt like so and I think that's a part of the narrative that kept everything going was when Trump came in on a cloud after winning the and getting all this investment from the Middle East. Well, that's gone. um you know so it's they're everybody everybody's going to be having to take care of their own for you know the foreseeable future and so and I think you know with Sam Alman coming out and saying no porn thank god I mean and and actually and I haven't had time to think about this Jesse because it just happened you know they just announced that Sora was closing like which is I really one of the first products that got people interested and so uh you know the the metaverse like all the just you know they're hanging up. So, I think that yeah, we're watching we're watching the transformation of the AI bubble starting to collapse. And I think, you know, people are going to cycle into um energy and uh military uh and defense. And this is, you know, and and I do think I just saw somebody tell me, and this is an anecdote, is that they're seeing where they they're, you know, they're a trader, people like paying penalties and cashing out their 401ks early. like it's so I just think yeah the AI bubble has been held up by narrative for almost really 3 years. Um, and it's slowly leaking and I do think we'll probably get some violent movement and you know this War with a Run is perfect cover to let that happen, right? Um, take out a few people uh take them off the stage, put them in jail like Sam Bankman Freed um you know and and let it collapse and then let it be what it's going to be. uh because you know my biggest thing with AI Jesse is not that I don't think that there's potential in the technology it's that uh we lack a will to actually implement it that's what I saw when I was in fintech companies no longer had that kind of um uh perseverance because it takes a lot of work to implement um and the ones that don't do it right you end up now calling and you're in you know chatbot hell people are going to walk away from that. And so I think we're in the correction period. Um and we probably will get a more violent draw down, but you know, the bubble I think uh leaking um is is continuing and then we'll finally burst. >> And when the dust settles, you know, for for value investors and those with that perspective, a massive correction could be a time when generational wealth could potentially be made. Where would you be looking? which areas of the market do you think would present an opportunity in such a scenario? >> Uh that so I think wherever we're going to really rebuild um rebuild our economy that is and so if if we're going to be um if this if this conflict persists that's probably going to be something around defense. Um but you know I think in general we need to address our energy infrastructure in the United States. Um, and so around that kind of thing, but honestly, Jesse, I think with what's happening right now, the the future is very uncertain. Um, and it feels like radical changes. And so, at this point, I think it's just time to hunker down. And then as this play plays out, we'll start to get clues about where that opportunity. So, I like to say because I I love u military acronyms and phrases, but I like to say stay frosty. Um because this is the time to stay frosty uh for those types of inter I mean things I'm thinking about Jesse, I'm thinking about buying a machine shop because, you know, I think all these electric cars, people hate them. They, you know, they the software breaks before the car breaks. It's so annoying. And so I think like things like that, people are going to be wanting to just keep their car and get it fixed, but the biggest issue are parts. And so I think in physical things like that and actual cash generating businesses where you make stuff um or like you know like uh you're um electrician or things like that then um because yeah I think robotics are going to be a big deal and we need people that understand the interface between hardware and software and there's so few of those people and then we're just going to need people to help uh fix some of the robots, you when they break cuz they'll break. So, you know, just cash generating uh businesses in my opinion like where you're really providing a service to your community still. I know that probably sounds incredibly naive, but that's that's what I've been thinking about. >> What about extractive industries, commodities, producers? You mentioned energy. Um any other commodities, gold, silver producers, uranium, base metals such as copper. Or is any of that on your radar? >> It is. But I got to be honest, Jesse. I don't trust our government right now. I don't trust anything. And I don't like these these guys right now because we are in the looting phase. Um I don't trust anything because are they just trying to take the last bit of my money is what I mean. And so I kind of need to see where we are before I even think about those things. Um, but yeah, they would be, you know, on my list of potential things to think about. Sorry, I'm This is a crazy time. So, I'm I know the picture is not clear. >> Yeah. Well, the you've provided an excellent analysis today. Tell us about the M3 Melody Substack and anywhere else you'd like to direct people online. >> Sure. Yeah. So, the substax is where I write about uh kind of what's going on in macro land um and how that relates to the housing market. And something that's just part of what I do is I always bring in the micro because I think you need both of those things to really understand what's going on. So, I I publish there about three times a month, sometimes more. um and M3 Melody Substack and you'll it you know even the free version I tell people this all the time I pack a lot of data in there because to me this is about educating it's not about making my millions. So um I just encourage people to check it out. It's a it's it's got a lot of info and it it tells the story of what's going on. >> Great. I'll put a link in the description below to your Substack as well as your X account where you post a lot of valuable information as well. Thank you so much, Melody, for coming on the show again. >> Thank you for having me, Jesse. And apologies for my doom. >> Thank you for joining us today. Our sponsor, Arc Silver, Gold, Osmium, has some great prices on precious metals, bullion products. They are on your screen right now. These are subject to change. and while supplies last. So reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 307264-9441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you and represent sound money in style with the official stacks not fiat t-shirt available in the commodity culture shop using the link in the description below and I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up tod date with the latest episodes.
Iran War 'Final Nail' in Coffin of US Economy – 'It's Spiraling Out of Control': Melody Wright
Summary
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day. Today is March 26th, 2026 and I'm thrilled to welcome Melody Wright to the program. An analyst in real estate, macro, and technology and the publisher of the M3 Melody Substack. Melody believes the rapidly escalating war in the Middle East is the final nail in the coffin for the US economy as wartime spending ramps up and the political class openly engages in the brazen looting of the system in a desperate bid to get their hands on as much wealth and power as possible before it all collapses catastrophically. Melody unpacks why she thinks the US could ultimately be planning to default on their debt, what that looks like for the rest of us, and how we might pick up the pieces as the dust settles. All of this and so much more ahead in my conversation with Melody Wright. Melody Wright, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. Now, last time I had you on the show, you said the consumer was dead and the economy in the US was far worse than most understand. Now that we're kneedeep in a kinetic war in the Middle East that is estimated to be costing approximately $900 million a day with the administration requesting an additional $200 billion to keep the war going. Does this accelerate the economic decline in America? >> I think so. You know, there's obviously um as we need more weapons and things like that, there will be companies that do better than others. But um for the irregular consumer, the only thing that was giving them any latitude at all was gas prices. And now, you know, it it seems crazy to most people that 25 cents, 50 cents, a dollar can make more a gallon can make such a huge difference, but it does because there is just no wiggle room. And so, you know, uh what I remember 22 very well, like we had to give people, um gas cards just to get them to work cuz they couldn't afford it. And so, you know, in the United States, we drive a lot and we don't have a lot of public transportation. And so, um yeah, like this is a big deal. this just kind of puts the nail in the coffin and there's, you know, and we're continuing to see layoffs and so there's nothing really coming at this, you know, in the the near term for um for to change this picture. So, yeah, it's it's it accelerates that it makes it worse. And I think, you know, we're starting to see kind of um everything sort of fall apart at the same time. So I'm I'm not laughing at that situation, but it's it's just it's kind of unreal to watch, you know, um in real time. >> Absolutely. And we are also hearing a lot of talk about the potential for a global recession largely driven by the kind of soft closure of the straight of Hormuse. They're letting certain vessels through if they agree to pay a toll. Supposedly, they want to accept Renman B. I've heard also that they also accept USDT. Um but nonetheless, there's a fee for ships to pass through and of course uh those connected to America or Israel, it could be a whole different situation. Energy infrastructure also being destroyed. I saw Eric Nuttle who who runs a prominent energy fund on X saying this is the biggest energy crisis of his lifetime that could be facing us down. Um what are your thoughts there on just the overall impact on the global economy and how bad things could really get as a result of this war? Yeah, you know, we kind of live in a global globally synchronized economy. Um, you know, and I think that as one one suffers, others suffer as well. And I think the current view right now is that the US is going to be fine because we have access, you know, to to oil. But the problem is, um, you know, like jet fuel that's comes from China for the most part. Also, I don't think people have a good understanding of how we refine things here, but we get things from other places. And then we can't I mean, we've already seen several refineries in the United States get hit in small explosions or like we're not hearing Jesse like so we're in the fog of war right now. And I think that, you know, people are holding on to these false hopes like and and our administration is fueling that cuz they can't really afford anything else. Um but, you know, we cannot put it past any a state actor to take out one of our, you know, a large uh part of our supplies. So, yeah, this is um this is this is this situation is crazy and I think um it it's spiraling. Um, and I think, yeah, it's it's going to impact the world. I mean, you just we're just now hearing that 500 gas stations in Australia have run out of gas. You know, you're seeing it in the Philippines. Uh, California is already saying, you know, sending out warnings. Um, so I think we're going to see some issues here. But yeah, this is uh this is going this is going to hurt the world economy. to your point that with that infrastructure being hit, it's not about just opening the straight and and there the oil is in everything as you well know Jesse. I mean it's just in everything and so you know like people's face moisturizers like you know in making the contacts that I have on right now and so I just think people don't even understand. I think Dowo Chemical came out yesterday and said they were doubling the price of plastic and that we use plastic to package everything. So, you know, this is um although my long-term thesis is deflation, like short term, we are going to see some inflation or at least increased, you know, cost of goods. >> Well, talk to us about >> which is not good for the economy. Go ahead. >> Yeah. Uh talk to us about that long-term deflation. What what what do you think will bring us there? Is this going to be a a darker scenario such as a deflationary bust? Um or or will it just be better prices for everybody? How do you see that playing out? >> Yeah, you know, the cure for high prices is high prices. You know, we can all talk crazy monetary theory and all this blah blah blah, but in reality, that's that's just the truth. And um so I think you're going to see kind of a deflationary bust. Um and I think that, you know, it's just getting started. It hasn't really started in earnest. You know, speaking of the housing market in particular, uh there's there are record cancellations again in February. I mean, people are getting to the closing table and realizing they can't close. They can't either the property inspection came back with a problem they don't want to deal with or the insurance was too much or, you know, they just can't qualify because of what's going on. So yeah, it's I I think that we are we are just coming on to the top of the roller coaster and you know rents had just started to come down, but that's just going to continue and continue cuz nobody can afford you know housing right now and especially with and now gas and and especially with layoffs like this is just getting uglier and uglier fast. I want to turn to the private credit market because we've seen an increase in funds capping investor withdrawals. This cannot be a good sign. Break that down for us and the potential implications of a crash in the private credit market for the broader economy. >> Yeah. So, now we go to the top of the K like you and I were just primarily talking about the bottom of the K, but the top of the K, they're the people that are invested in these things. And when they're told they can't get their money out, that changes their math. um you know just like it changes someone's math when their house sits for sale for a year like you know things just you start and so then your your your spending starts to change you know um and so yeah but breaking this down essentially I mean you know I did some diving into blue owl and just the things that these people are invested in I mean they give loans out to everybody Jesse and I don't think they did any due diligence I mean, not really. Um, and so and and we don't we don't know what's in all this stuff. Um, we don't know how these companies are doing, but they're not doing very well. And you can see the contagion spreading. You can see Apollo also gating, you know, Cliff Water. This one I think we're going to hear a lot about. Uh, this is the one that just got a rating agency downgrade. um you know and importantly more importantly I should say is what Chase did when they wrote down um some loans that that is a huge huge like megaphone to the market like uh this is a big deal and it it honestly I it's like step one of a credit crisis and you know I think that you're going to and and then you know and immediately when it happened I said the rating agencies are about to start acting because you know they don't they don't independently find this stuff, they wait till it it's too much trouble. And so, and sure enough, they did. They started doing some downgrowth. So, this could be massive contagion and become, you know, kind of a Leman style event. >> The sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver, Gold, Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. Take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com. Make sure to tell them of course that Commodity Culture sent you. And now back to the interview. Let's talk about the housing market. You alluded to it earlier. You recently posted some data on your ex from Danielle D. Martino Booth's Daily Feather noting that the top 20% of income earners accounted for around 57% of US real estate wealth as of the third quarter of 2025. This is a pretty shocking statistic. Walk us through how it impacts the real estate market. Well, >> I think you've been seeing it impact it, right? Like the housing market has been frozen for the last 3 years. Just frozen. The only transactions have been those um you know higher priced homes which is what kept that median price up. And so our top 20% has been carrying everything, but it gets to a point where it it just doesn't make sense. Like they've got all the homes they need. They, you know, plus when you're staring down, let's say they do have like five homes and they're looking if they're especially if they're investors, all of a sudden their rent I mean their uh rent prices are going down and uh you know property tax is going up, insurance is going up, electricity bills are going up, replacement costs are going up. you know, this just math doesn't make any sense anymore. And so, you know, I just the housing market um sputtered along at lower than almost 2008 levels based on this top 20% transacting, but they're pulling back as well. Um, and it's, you know, it it's not going to sustain these 20% can't sustain the whole housing market. But to our previous conversation about the top of the K getting impacted just think about that if they own 57% of the assets and some of them not all of them but a section of them are getting crushed what happens those mar those real estate assets come to market and and that is going to happen. >> Well you release a lot of data on the real estate market on your Substack as well as on X. What are the most important trends you're seeing that you think more people should be paying attention to right now? >> Yeah, I think those cancellations are a big deal. Um, you know, I think if you want to know where sentiment is, just watch the mortgage rate and uh, you know, what is just happened with all of this war is we had gotten below five for like 30 sec. I mean not five below 6% for like 30 seconds and then now we're up to about 6.5 um yesterday. So you know watch that you're going to that's going to tell you a lot about sentiment sentiment um and because the sellers also realize uh that rates aren't coming down and so that's why many of them pulled back last year. Um, but honestly at this juncture, uh, it's really going to be about watching those home prices, believe it or not. And I, you know, Jesse, for the first time ever in my series, you know, I track 85 markets, um, we have 45 of my cities are year-over-year negative, uh, compared to 17 last year this time. So that you are seeing it spread. So, you know, just pay attention to kind of what's going on in your local market and your home prices. Uh that'll tell you where we are. Um but yeah, you know, before this I would say pay attention to all kinds of things like but we're really to the point now where um look at those look at those mortgage rates for sentiment and pay attention to what prices are doing in your market. >> Do you think the silver lining to that is that homes could become affordable once again? Uh is is that something that people could perhaps look forward to in terms of potentially taking advantage of these lower prices up ahead or do you believe just the broader damage that's going to occur to the economy in general is going to give people that much less purchasing power that it won't really matter? >> It's going to be both. But you know, this is why I've been talking to people for 3 years like get ready for this. you know, pay down your debt, save your money, and you know, I'm not an idiot and think that not buying Starbucks every day is going to get you a down payment in a year, but it's a mortgage payment almost. Um, you know, so just save your money. Um, you know, earn what you can on it, you know, and uh because you can still get interest on that money. Uh, and just wait. But, you know, the people that are going to be crushed, Jesse, unfortunately, are the people that got are overlevered and they got into debt and they, you know, believe the hype and spent on credit cards and buy now pay later to do vacations and experiences that, you know, um, they're probably going to wish they hadn't done because there is going to be, in my opinion, a real opportunity, uh, here in the future for people with a steady steady work, steady income, low debt to be able to afford homes. Again, >> I want to turn to government corruption and perhaps one of the most blatant examples of insider trading by the political class. We saw 6 million barrels of Brent and WTI oil sold minutes before Trump posted on Truth Social that there were some very um productive talks happening with Iran. Now, that is a claim since denied by the Iranian regime. So, at the most cynical way you could look at this is he was literally making it up to make money for himself and a circle of insiders. Now, that wouldn't surprise anyone. I think it feels like law and order has been thrown out the window both at home domestically as well as internationally. I don't think there'll be an official investigation. Is this just another example of the 1% siphoning their wealth at the exp from others? And what are your thoughts on this the potential of this insider trade and will we see more of it up ahead? >> Yeah, I think this is just business as usual. I think we're more sophisticated now at our ability to see it uh when it's happening. You know, I think about 9/11 all the time, right? Um that was a very impactful event in my life and somebody traded off of it and did well. Um so, so and that was what 25 years ago, Jesse. So, I'm not expecting any law and order here. Um, and yeah, I think I think what we're witnessing in many ways is kind of the last gasp of this system. And people are just they're they're taking anything that's not dailed down. They're taking they're taking profits. You've got insider selling everywhere. like you know in many ways I think about how April of last year was kind of uh it was your it was your warning and a lot of people didn't want to take it um but basically it it was a warning and we've had almost a year to act and instead people just a lot of people put their head in the sand more retail got in which I think is always part of the plan to some degree because it's an it's exit liquidity um but yeah this I mean it's disgusting. I don't know what else to say, but this is a life in hyper financialization and everybody's just taking what they can. Um, and I, you know, that's not I think these things matter and I think that it, you know, ultimately there's going to be a a price to pay. Um, but, you know, right now that it it just seems like we're just witnessing, you know, looting. It's just looting of the system. And you referred to the last gasp of this system. Is that the fiat currency system? Is that simply the hyper financialization of everything? And what is there on the other side of this? Is is a collapse of some sort coming that we will need to rebuild from? Does the entire political structure, the system, the way it works now, need to be torn down and rebuilt? How do you see things advancing here? And and what does that last gasp look like? >> Yeah. So, you want me to earn my title, Queen of Doom, I guess. um you know uh so I I ask people you know to pay attention to what's actually happening versus what everybody's saying. And so I think right now everybody's got whiplash because they actually believe these headlines. Um these headlines are ridiculous. This is this is a scop. This is what happens in war. But watch what is happening. And when you watch what is happening, Jesse, when you watch us let infrastructure get hit, infrastructure, then it seems to me like we are taking a wrecking ball to our current world order and that includes fiat. Um, and honestly, if I just look at the facts and and this is I came to this conclusion last week, Jesse, this is a very new one for me and I haven't shared with hardly anybody. and so you'll be my first show to do it, but I think this might be um we're on the road to actually defaulting on our debt. And um you know, bring bring back gold as the world currency. Um you know, think of right we just got a headline Turkey uh just you know it's gold reserves. They've spent more out of them. I think it's a record uh because this is what's going to I mean you know people are going to be grasping for anything and if you're you know why would you why would you invest in long-term US treasuries when we're acting like this like it I think I just also saw another headline and again things are changing so quickly you can't even keep up that we're we're going to take some funds that other nations put together for Ukraine. We're going to take it and replenish our you know our weaponry. It's like who wants to play with that bully? I mean, you know, and so I think they know it and I and so it's not necessarily that, oh, Brics is going to take over or this or this or that, but I think we know we have come to some sort of conclusion that this debt is not sustainable and because every action that's being taken right now makes no sense. Not none of you care about international law. None of you care about order. So, uh, I do think that perhaps, you know, they might have wanted to get there a different way, but this is this is how we may get there. And what are your thoughts to the theory that the reason the US is acting this way is to protect their status as the global hedgeimon. Um, I've I've spoken to a few people and also heard some analysis that actually this is really about China and stopping the flow of oil for renmanb to China. uh reducing the ability for China to get access to cheap oil to then prevent them from becoming the next global superpower uh and also to prevent a multipolar world from emerging that the US is essentially like a cornered animal that is about to lose its its uh hegemony and it's fighting desperately to maintain it. What do you think about that? >> I think that's one layer of the narrative. I think we're being fed about 15 layers right now. So whatever layer you're at, it's going to be there to and I think the very top one of the topper layers is this China narrative. Um I I just I mean if if Iran's saying you can you can you can have some oil like you know they can also partner with Russia although you know we've hit some well Ukraine has hit some oil infrastructure in Russia but I'm pretty sure I mean honestly I think it's going to happen to us as well. Um I just don't believe that. I I just I think that this isn't how you do it. I think though that blaming them as the bad guy, I mean they are collapsing demographically, collapsing. Collapsing. And anybody who's spent time over there, I don't think that you walk away saying they're going to take over the world. Um, and I don't want to get into all that, but you know, I've been there. I lived in Taiwan. Like, we have a very uh big misunderstanding of Asia. Um, and I think that's on purpose. So, yeah, I think that's one of the narratives, but Jesse, I don't think that's what's going on. Like, this is just this just and if that was I think the timeline would be different. I think we would have waited a little bit longer. Um, this this feels uh very different. So, that but that's this is my opinion. Um, you know what? And just to give you some background, and I know we're probably running out of time, but you know, like I I studied I studied propaganda in school. I I you know, I had a Russian minor. I studied Soviet propaganda and then I moved on to studying, you know, US propaganda during Vietnam. And and I think you learn how to watch where the convergence points of the narratives to then create a full picture of what's happening. Not what they're saying, but where are the narratives converging? And so this is what I've been on the lookout for for weeks because my my brain was blown. Like this just didn't make any sense. But I've kind of arrived at a place where I think this is more about uh about our debt than probably pretty much anything else. So, but we shall see. And I could be wrong and something could happen tomorrow. And you know, but we are certainly here in the United States being dissuaded from traveling, being dissu I mean, like I canceled a trip last week. I wasn't about to go sit in an airport for 6 hours and then maybe miss my flight or whatever. And at the same time, we're being told about a homeland plot um you know, in the United States. And so people are scared for that reason. So for whatever reason um you know, it looks like we're about to get, you know, uh locked down again. It it's just it in some form or another. And I know that sounds like conspiracy theory, but they're already talking about reducing driving and things like this. And so if we're fine, why why why are they talking about that? because there there has been some of those uh rumors, reports circulating online that energy lockdowns are going to be the next thing and like you mentioned in Australia, they're running out of of diesel. Um obviously a lot of those countries that rely heavily on the Middle East for their oil and oil based products are going through it, Pakistan, Philippines, etc. Um so certainly precarious times. I do want to quickly just jump into the point on China for a moment. You've spent time there. You said you spent time in Taiwan. I lived in China for about a year and a half in like 2007208. I was in my 20s just having a good time. I didn't know anything about the global economy or what was going on. So my experience not notwithstanding we hear different narratives. On the one extreme what you're saying the demographics are they're going through major challenges there. Obviously they had massive issues in their real estate market. And you know those on the farthest side of that spectrum would say they're on the verge of collapse. You're Peter's eye hands who come out and say China won't even be relevant in 5 years. And then on the other side you have people who give the exact opposite view of China's the next global superpower. In fact Brian Beerich I believe his name is. He said that that that's one of the guys who was proposing this theory. This war is all about stopping China. He says in 5 years in 10 years max could be 5 years China will become the indisputable global superpower of the world and it's irreversible and that's what this war is about. So I wonder where you sit in that in that spectrum with with your experience with the region. I think probably in the middle, you know, I don't I don't believe what Zhon said. And, you know, and I think now that everybody's more familiar with him in general, he has a, you know, he's kind of I think he's he plays a role um a certain role, you know, uh as a a narrative catcher, I should say. He catches the dissident. Um but but on the other hand, you know, I'm actually curious about what you think because I just I I spending time there can't even imagine and I remember coming back cuz I was there in 2005. Uh so not too long before you and thinking we've got this all wrong. But you know what's really happened, Jesse, is we've turned more like China uh during that time than anything else. Like so. And I think that's the reason I'm in the middle is that so much of our business, so much of our technology, all of this, I mean, we China's everywhere in the United States. And in many ways, we've just become more like them. Um, so I don't know. I think that might be more part of their strategy than, you know, like this dominance and war and things like that. So I'm probably in the middle. But what do you think? >> Yeah, that's a good question. And and uh I think that obviously we see a lot of hype online with these mega cities. You know, it's like Bladeunner, everything's so advanced. Was it the CEO of Ford who came back from from China and said where we can't out compete these people the cars they're building are so amazing. They have an incredible EV range, the BYD cars. And I've heard that they're very far ahead in certain areas of robotics. So when it comes to certain industrial aspects, China certainly has an edge in some case, but they have many problems as well. They're a massive country with a massive population with many different interests um all kind of combating each other and it's not the rosy picture that's painted on social media but at the same time it's not you know I was there it was relatively free. You can't criticize the government. It's it's not a a free democracy or or or a place where you're allowed to have your own say. Um there's also a heavy hand of the state. It's like kind of a state capitalist state controlled capitalist system which makes it interesting. You know, a lot of the EV uh cars there were driven by uh government intervention, government grants, this sort of thing. So, it's such a murky picture to really peel back and uncover that I'm also very uncertain as to where all of this is headed. But in terms of it becoming the next global superpower, anything's possible, particularly if they've been building up their military as much as people are saying. If it does come to a hot war, um we'd have to see how, you know, things could be contested in the region. If they do attempt to take back Taiwan, whether that's through diplomatic means, whether that's through subversion or through a direct kinetic war, um or invasion, uh that could change the picture as well. But I'm I'm pretty in the dark on this one. All of that to say, I'm not really sure. Um, but I I want to move on now to gold getting hit because you spoke about gold potentially making a comeback. A lot of people I spoke on the show in terms of being in the monetary system. A lot of people on this show also believe that. What why has gold been falling so much since the war started in your view? Do you think this is people scrambling for liquidity? Is this a sell everything moment? What's your view on that? >> Yeah, it's a sell everything and and plus we know there is a ton of speculation in gold. like, you know, when when when it just started rising, you you got to know everybody went in there and did some sort of speculation. So, I think everybody that's really in gold knew to be cautious uh because it had gotten a little crazy and and all the wrong people were getting involved. And so, I think that's what this is. It's a sell everything. I mean, that's it in my opinion. And and you know, I got to be honest. um and all my years talking thinking about macro like I never even thought this was a possibility. it it has taken this to really um change my mind because I it's like you just sit and you think and you think and nothing else makes sense why we would do this and and so you know um yeah I I feel like we're changing world order and we want to uh we you know maybe we want to go to this multipolar world where our interests do come first uh but to get there I But I think that there's always going to be a part of in its current form, our administration that's going to be interested in what's going on around the world and will probably, you know, participate in other ways. Uh, but I do think this is we're breaking the system is what it feels like to me. >> Now, last time you were on the show, we also discussed the AI bubble and the potential implications of it bursting. Year to date, the big three indices indices are all down a few percentage points. Could we be witnessing the beginning of the end for the magni magnificent seven, the techdriven mega caps? And could this war perhaps be the trigger that brings us into a real bare market? >> Yeah, I think I think that there has been a pen prick in the bubble uh since Deepseek, right? And I think that you've had a lot of people that know better um getting out and and talking and you know all these data centers are coming to a halt like so and I think that's a part of the narrative that kept everything going was when Trump came in on a cloud after winning the and getting all this investment from the Middle East. Well, that's gone. um you know so it's they're everybody everybody's going to be having to take care of their own for you know the foreseeable future and so and I think you know with Sam Alman coming out and saying no porn thank god I mean and and actually and I haven't had time to think about this Jesse because it just happened you know they just announced that Sora was closing like which is I really one of the first products that got people interested and so uh you know the the metaverse like all the just you know they're hanging up. So, I think that yeah, we're watching we're watching the transformation of the AI bubble starting to collapse. And I think, you know, people are going to cycle into um energy and uh military uh and defense. And this is, you know, and and I do think I just saw somebody tell me, and this is an anecdote, is that they're seeing where they they're, you know, they're a trader, people like paying penalties and cashing out their 401ks early. like it's so I just think yeah the AI bubble has been held up by narrative for almost really 3 years. Um, and it's slowly leaking and I do think we'll probably get some violent movement and you know this War with a Run is perfect cover to let that happen, right? Um, take out a few people uh take them off the stage, put them in jail like Sam Bankman Freed um you know and and let it collapse and then let it be what it's going to be. uh because you know my biggest thing with AI Jesse is not that I don't think that there's potential in the technology it's that uh we lack a will to actually implement it that's what I saw when I was in fintech companies no longer had that kind of um uh perseverance because it takes a lot of work to implement um and the ones that don't do it right you end up now calling and you're in you know chatbot hell people are going to walk away from that. And so I think we're in the correction period. Um and we probably will get a more violent draw down, but you know, the bubble I think uh leaking um is is continuing and then we'll finally burst. >> And when the dust settles, you know, for for value investors and those with that perspective, a massive correction could be a time when generational wealth could potentially be made. Where would you be looking? which areas of the market do you think would present an opportunity in such a scenario? >> Uh that so I think wherever we're going to really rebuild um rebuild our economy that is and so if if we're going to be um if this if this conflict persists that's probably going to be something around defense. Um but you know I think in general we need to address our energy infrastructure in the United States. Um, and so around that kind of thing, but honestly, Jesse, I think with what's happening right now, the the future is very uncertain. Um, and it feels like radical changes. And so, at this point, I think it's just time to hunker down. And then as this play plays out, we'll start to get clues about where that opportunity. So, I like to say because I I love u military acronyms and phrases, but I like to say stay frosty. Um because this is the time to stay frosty uh for those types of inter I mean things I'm thinking about Jesse, I'm thinking about buying a machine shop because, you know, I think all these electric cars, people hate them. They, you know, they the software breaks before the car breaks. It's so annoying. And so I think like things like that, people are going to be wanting to just keep their car and get it fixed, but the biggest issue are parts. And so I think in physical things like that and actual cash generating businesses where you make stuff um or like you know like uh you're um electrician or things like that then um because yeah I think robotics are going to be a big deal and we need people that understand the interface between hardware and software and there's so few of those people and then we're just going to need people to help uh fix some of the robots, you when they break cuz they'll break. So, you know, just cash generating uh businesses in my opinion like where you're really providing a service to your community still. I know that probably sounds incredibly naive, but that's that's what I've been thinking about. >> What about extractive industries, commodities, producers? You mentioned energy. Um any other commodities, gold, silver producers, uranium, base metals such as copper. Or is any of that on your radar? >> It is. But I got to be honest, Jesse. I don't trust our government right now. I don't trust anything. And I don't like these these guys right now because we are in the looting phase. Um I don't trust anything because are they just trying to take the last bit of my money is what I mean. And so I kind of need to see where we are before I even think about those things. Um, but yeah, they would be, you know, on my list of potential things to think about. Sorry, I'm This is a crazy time. So, I'm I know the picture is not clear. >> Yeah. Well, the you've provided an excellent analysis today. Tell us about the M3 Melody Substack and anywhere else you'd like to direct people online. >> Sure. Yeah. So, the substax is where I write about uh kind of what's going on in macro land um and how that relates to the housing market. And something that's just part of what I do is I always bring in the micro because I think you need both of those things to really understand what's going on. So, I I publish there about three times a month, sometimes more. um and M3 Melody Substack and you'll it you know even the free version I tell people this all the time I pack a lot of data in there because to me this is about educating it's not about making my millions. So um I just encourage people to check it out. It's a it's it's got a lot of info and it it tells the story of what's going on. >> Great. I'll put a link in the description below to your Substack as well as your X account where you post a lot of valuable information as well. Thank you so much, Melody, for coming on the show again. >> Thank you for having me, Jesse. And apologies for my doom. >> Thank you for joining us today. Our sponsor, Arc Silver, Gold, Osmium, has some great prices on precious metals, bullion products. They are on your screen right now. These are subject to change. and while supplies last. So reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 307264-9441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you and represent sound money in style with the official stacks not fiat t-shirt available in the commodity culture shop using the link in the description below and I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up tod date with the latest episodes.