Is Gold Having Its 'Dow 3,600' Moment? A Surprising Parallel from the 1980s Bull Market
Summary
Economic Outlook: The podcast discusses a divergence in economic indicators, with the US jobs report showing a net gain of 22,000 jobs, but a deeper analysis revealing a decline of 74,000 jobs, indicating potential economic contraction.
Market Signals: There is a flight to safety as evidenced by falling 10-year Treasury yields and rising gold prices, with gold reaching $3,600 and silver futures hitting a 14-year high, while Bitcoin declines.
Federal Reserve and Policy: The discussion highlights skepticism about the Fed's ability to control the economy, with critiques of its monetary policy and the suggestion that it may have lost influence over long-term rates.
Gold and Political Risk: The rise in gold prices is seen as a response to political risks and potential monetary instability, with comparisons to historical bull markets and concerns about the US dollar's future.
Mining Sector Insights: The podcast emphasizes the strength of gold and copper mining companies, noting the financial health of major miners and the potential for M&A activity, particularly in junior mining stocks.
Investment Strategy: Listeners are advised to focus on management quality and jurisdictional safety when investing in mining stocks, with a specific mention of North Copper and Gold as a promising investment.
Cryptocurrency Skepticism: The podcast expresses skepticism towards cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, comparing it to the dot-com bubble and suggesting a potential shakeout in the market.
Investor Behavior: There is concern about record public buying of equities amid insider selling, suggesting a potential market turning point and the end of investor complacency.
Transcript
[Music] Hey everyone, welcome back. I'm Jeremy Sappern. Okay, we're here to break down a profound divergence in the financial markets and a deep split in the story the numbers are telling us. Here are the facts. Now, a recent US jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a headline net gain of only 22,000 jobs. But when you look deeper into the government's own data, a statistical model known as the birth death adjustment actually added 96,000 jobs. So without that model, the core number was a decline of 74,000. Now that is the economic picture, one that points to contraction, not growth. And the bond market is reacting in kind. We've seen a clear flight to safety with the 10-year Treasury yield falling sharply. And then of course there's the clear message from the heart asset. Spot gold has shown significant strength. It just touched at the time of taping this this morning on the spot side $3,600. It's wild times on that chart. December Comx silver futures have reached a 14-year high of over $42 an ounce. And I should mention that Bitcoin is down on this latest economic news. So, okay, we have a fundamental divergence. Economic data pointing to contraction, a bond market signaling recession in an equity market that after a failed attempt to rally this morning is now being forced to grapple with that reality. So, here to help break down and make sense of these conflicting signals is veteran market strategist Peter Grandich. Uh, Peter, great to see you. Thank you for joining us. Uh hope you've had a great summer. >> We have. Thank you very much, Jeremy. >> Well, let's start let's start with that great divergence. I mean, which of these market signals I just mentioned in your view is telling the truth? >> Uh the gold market uh it's been telling the truth for several years that people refuse to listen to >> and uh we now see as you know, you noted that the BLS uh uses this birth death model. I don't know what model after Trump gets his guy in there that they're going to come up with to try to massage it even more. But I've said for quite a while they should just drop the L there and call the BS because that's what the employment numbers have been. We're going to see in a couple days a look back that's going to maybe knock off well over a million jobs that were created supposedly in the last 12 18 months. So I think we have a wakeup call today. uh all this talk Trump beating the drum how great the economy is and all that kind of stuff and the bond market is telling you that at least for the time being not only for safety but that the the big drop in interest rates is uh I I suspect I haven't heard it yet but I suspect we're going to hear a word that hasn't been used in a while from the don't worry be happy crowd on Wall Street and that is soft landing. um they they'll admit there's now a good chance of recession, but don't worry, it's going to be a soft landing. And I can tell you if I had a dollar for every soft landing that didn't work, I could buy a nice uh steak dinner tonight. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well said. Uh it's interesting. I mean, there's so many ways that we can go, Peter, but I I guess we we'll start with the Fed's role in all of this. I mean, the futures market is now pricing in three quarter point rate cuts by year end, assuming the Fed can rescue the economy. But with global bond yields rising due to of course inflation and these debt concerns, is the Fed actually losing control? I mean, can they truly stimulate the economy if the global bond market is starting to revolt against fiscal and discipline? >> So, I have argued for the last several years, not always, but in the last 5 years or so that the Fed became more like the Wizard of Oz. Uh, with the curtain closed, it looked like they were powerful and all knowing, but when the curtain was pulled back, we found out that they really blundered. And we know that they blundered uh in in recent years and now at least Trump's argument that they were behind the curve is legit. It's hard to argue that they were seeing a strong economy based on the numbers that we're now seeing that are supposedly the realistic numbers even though there's going to be an adjustment that's going to make it even look that it was a weaker market. So I I don't know if the Fed still sits in the in the role that when I first started in the business how dominant they were at the markets and you know one comment by them could really move markets. I think what's important to recognize is that while we may be seeing this rally underway, world bond markets are under a bit of a trouble in some key markets and and why that's important not just for them, but they are normally people that have stepped in to buy our debt and they're going to have issues on their own which is probably going to curtail that. So, even though we have a rally today in the long end, do not be surprised that even if we do get someone in the Fed that is going to dramatically try to lower short-term rates, we might not see the same effect on the long end. And why that's critical, that's where all rates, whether it's for mortgages, cars, and other consumer loans are based on not the short-term rates, but long-term rates. >> Yeah. And I mean, it brings us to a critical point about the institutional credibility. You brought up the BLS, or as you call it, the BS, right? I mean, the White House has recently fired that commissioner and put somebody else who's been on my show before, AJ EJ Anthony, I should say. Um, you know, they're overseeing also the leadership transition at the Federal Reserve. When you see this level of direct political pressure on both the agency that produces the data and the institution that acts on it, is the powerful move that we're seeing in assets like gold a sign that the market is beginning to price in a serious political risk premium as well? >> Oh, it has been. Uh I I know some of the people who have been strong advocates for gold outside the people that are always you know talking about gold going up starting to use words that I haven't heard since the early 80s that were describing a lot of things that were happening in South America calling us at the earliest stage of a banana republic and where it happens in the banana republic is when whoever the political powers it be twist the arms of people in charge of the monetary end and force just huge you know creation of money in hopes of, you know, solving the major problems that are out there. And and that's the concern of at least some and me when the president is becoming so influential and wants to start in a sense putting his own people in. Uh I I think we're in a danger zone here and I think people recognize that. Listen to know where we are in the world. And I I want to get this in. I'm sorry, Jeremy, if I'm skipping out. This weekend in China, most people will go shopping for gold. The the the malls are just full of people young and old, taking their money and buying gold. For those here in the US that still can go out, they're taking borrowed money to buy a lot of things they don't need. Gold has been a tremendous barometer that Wall Street doesn't tend to look at because it's kryptonite to them because it normally shows the real facts of what's happening in financial assets. So I think the rally in gold for no other reason whether you're a bull on gold or mining stocks what have you is a key factor to be looking at and the fact that it's just rising continuously and sharply here is clearly signal that the US and some other areas in the world have some very difficult problems ahead. Yeah. Yeah. It's going to be interesting watching. We're going to move on to gold and of course you know you are Peter Greenwich. We got to talk about the miners too. move. But first, let's just wrap up on that Fed policy because there was a really interesting new critique that was just published in the Wall Street Journal by Treasury Secretary Scott Besson just this morning. And this is what it is. I don't know if you've read it, but he argues that the Fed's use of tools like quantitive easing has become a what he calls gain of function monetary policy or experiment that has escaped the lab. He writes that the Fed quote must scale back the distortions it causes in the economy. I guess my question is is what are the biggest distortions that you see that have resulted from this experiment and and have they now become permanent features of our market? >> Well, the what he doesn't seem to want to focus on and if you remember early in the administration, we were getting almost hourly social media views of Trump being with Musk talking about how Doge was not only going to solve and get rid of the deficits, but also pay down the debt. Where did that all go? Instead, it's gone in the opposite direction. And what that is telling you is there gets to a point where you just put on so much debt that the only choice that governments or whoever in charge, Federal Reserve or wherever else it may be, can only print money because the other choice of hardcore deflation, we went through a depression once in this country and it's far worse than an inflationary crisis. So I I just think that whatever replaces uh the Fed, if it's going to be replaced in some manner led by someone different taking different ideas and removing themselves, the only weapon that they will have at the end of the day is to print money. And that's another reason why gold is reacting this way because people recognize that and they know at the end that's going to be extremely bullish especially since where growth is still occurring in the world mostly through Asia those folks many of them are joining groups particularly the bricks in order not to be involved with the United States or its currency. So this is also the the terminal stage for the US dollar that has been talked about for decades and people talked about it. We're in that now and you will see whoever does become in charge whether he's just or she is a figurehead for Trump or an independent person that they're going to just cheapen the dollar and and print money and and that is only bullish for gold. >> Has uh this price action I mean this past week it's been remarkable to watch. Has the price action made you a little bit nervous? I talked to other analysts and they go okay you could slow down a little bit take a breath. What are your thoughts? Well, here's the story I give with that, Jeremy, and it's worth the time to telling it. So, when I entered in the dinosaur age in the early 1980s, when almost twothirds of current financial advisors weren't even born or were in diapers, we had a person come out and say that the Dow was going to go to 3600. And no one knew who he was at the time. His name was Robert Prector Jr. He had a thing called the Elliot wave theory. And why he was viewed so crazy at the time was for 13 years the Dow before that had just traded between 700 and a,000. In fact, a very famous magazine ran a front page cover of the business we called equities are dead. So people scoffed and laughed and said listen this 3600 we can't get to 30. We can't even get above a thousand. Well we all know it went a lot further over the years past 36. That same mode is steal and gold for so many years trading in a range. Okay, now finally went through 2,000 and number we talked about 5,000 and 10,000 can't happen. You know, it's just it's too too much and especially in the time frame some people are talking about. Well, that was the same kind of attitude they had back there. Doesn't mean it's going to happen. But just the fact that it's moved in the manner that it has doesn't mean that it can't keep going. Yeah, of course there's going to be times when look what we just went through. This summer was a dream come true for me. I said, "If we can go the whole summer and go sideways and let moving averages catch up and all, it's going to set the stage for four or $5,000 gold." And now we have it. So, yeah, very very short term. You're a trader. I'm not a trader. I can't I only need one hand to count all the people made money trading, but I think if you're long-term and you still invest over the years, I think the only cost for gold still is higher. >> Okay. So 4,000 I mean that 5 to 10 call is that just kind of out of the realm here I guess to your thesis who the hell knows. >> No it's not that what you just don't want. I mean if you want to say is there anything Pete Granite that's a gold bull doesn't want to see. >> I wouldn't want you to call me up six months from now willing and say Pete do you mind coming on and talking about $10,000 goal that we just hit because if we hit it that soon or in a relatively short period of time what occurred in the world would be a lot worse than whatever we're talking about today. Mhm. Yeah. Yeah. What about silver, Peter? I mean, let's drill down on I mean, gold gets the headlines, but silver just hit that 14-year high. I mean, with its all-time high at around $50 in sight now. Do you see silver is simply following gold, or is this price action telling us a unique story about both that flight to safety and expectation of the industrial use? >> Until a few months ago, for my entire career, silver was always a second choice over gold. But when it got below 30 this year, I took the time to really listen to a couple very smart people. Not all these people are always telling you silver is going to the moon. And they presented an argument, fundamental argument that was second to none. And so I decided that silver now can be on the same breath as gold. And then I decided after I did purchase it that I could actually lead gold at times. So I think it has its best fundamental argument in the 41 years that I've been at it. And let's not forget, everybody's talking about an uh the old hunt high of, you know, $50 and change. Well, based when that was made, we'd have to get to almost $200 to adjust for inflation. So, my call last week for $100 silver price, I don't think it's out of the realm. It's merely just more of a double from here. So, I think we can get get to see a triple digit uh silver price and that would be a probably a 5,000 or more gold price at the same time. >> Wow, that's wild. I mean, silver does have the reputation for being gold on steroids in a bull market, and obviously we're seeing that high. So, what does that mean for the gold to silver ratio? >> Well, I I never got caught up in that even since I turned bullish on it because it's just it just changes. There's no calling for that. Clearly, when something had that big of a discrepancy, you could the mean reverse should happen. Uh but I I just think that right now that uh what they're going to run one two and maybe sometimes one will be in front of another but they're both going to work their way higher. Yeah. Let's switch over to miners and and obviously that brings us to silver miners first which often even you know offer more leverage. Uh it's notoriously volatile sector and you can see these explosive moves as we have. But let's bring it back Peter. I mean for for investors looking at this space how should they think about silver miners right now? Is there, you know, is there a better riskreward proposition than gold miners or is their industrial component kind of an added risk in a slowing economy? >> They would probably one of my second or third choices. One thing you have to think about when people think of silver mining. For a lot of years, silver was basically a byproduct to the mining industry. It wasn't a lot of emphasis, you know, was low price compared to the other metals. But because it looks like it's distinguished and it's it's building a very good fundamental argument its own, some people may just want to seek people that can just get them the silver. We know China is doing that. So the bottom line is there they are worth to look at. But I think the most ideal metal combination right now is gold, copper. In fact, some of the biggest names in the mining business with Barrett being the most vocal about it are talking about how more and more of their focus is coming on potential mines that have copper and gold. And the reason that is uh gold has become such a strong monetary price. It can help fund a higher cost that a mine like copper is to develop. So I I would look first with gold and copper, then gold on its own and maybe silver right behind it. Uh those are the leading metals. Now, of course, if you want to get into critical mineral arguments and talk about metals that I can't even spell, let alone pronounce, there's going to be a great need for them, but my focus mainly is in the gold, silver, and copper markets. >> Yeah. Interesting. It's I mean, watching the entire mining sector right now is pretty interesting. It seems like it's the end of complacency. Uh I'm a little bit curious. I mean the sector has seen many false dawn right I mean what's what specific structural changes are you seeing in the industry a lack of new discoveries a coming M&A cycle maybe a shift in capital flows that makes you kind of believe that this time is is is real it's going to be one of these sustainable bull markets >> well the first is that the majors are in much better capital shape than they've ever been >> by now in past rises they'd already been getting leverage to the hill borrowing all sorts of money to make major acquisitions and instead head because of record cash flow because of how well the price has gone up and and costs have not followed. These record- free cash flows have allowed them to pristinously make their balance sheet so much more stronger and I think longerlasting. They haven't even begun in a big way to use it as a currency to go out and get new resources. Yes, they've reached sideways to some and then reaching down to the emerging producers, but they haven't at all really gone after the junior market to get their organic growth and look at what they may be able to get five or 10 years from now. So, I think a that they're in much better better shape. The world has also shrunk for them. There's a lot of places they won't go to now that they would have went because of social political look what's happening in West Africa, you know, countries taking over mines and so forth. And then the third, because there hasn't been a lot of money flowing into the industry, there's a lot of money that has needs to be created for them to go out and say, "Listen, we're going to take the risk to build copper mines that because copper is so much needed now, etc., etc." And yet mo almost everyone that I talk to feels that unless it gets substantially above five and for a while, they're not going to put billions or tens of billions of dollars to work, especially in areas where they have to be concerned about the viability of their mine and that they'll still be owning it when they wake up the next morning. >> Yeah, that's an interesting way of looking at it, too. I mean, you're talking about obviously the different tiers. I mean, the producers, as you mentioned, are seeing these massive cash flows with the spot gold now approaching $3,600, even more. But the explorers, the juniors, are they still offering pure high beta optionality? I mean, how should an investor think about allocating capital between these tiers? I mean, what signals do you look for that tells you it's time to get aggressive in the high-risk exploration, the junior space? >> Well, if I get any more aggressive in the juniors, that woman sitting in the other room may not have me sitting in the seat for too much longer. So, I have backed up the truck, Jeremy, on the juniors. I think they are the most attractive they've been in the 40 years that I've been given the medals given where we just talked about the needs for medals and so forth and so on and they haven't begun to have the run that the majors have already had and some of the second tier producers and they're just starting to lift off. The problem that they face and there are a few still challenges for them. One is they don't have the same audience that we have. I'll argue that there's less people looking at juniors now despite the dramatic increase in medals than there was 15 20 years ago when I spent a full livelihood in that arena. Second, it's more challenging for them. We talked about the risk around the world, but it's also here in the United States, even discount brokers are not allowing their own clients on their own choices to buy junior resource stocks that may have an OT symbol, but trade in a Canadian exchange. So it's more challenging for a junior company itself and also getting the recognition. There aren't brokers anymore that build books of businesses around these things. So it's more challenging for the industry. But the majors will go that route. Not when they can't pass up when you see significant not just grassroots or cow pastures but legitimate companies identifying clear multi-million ounce deposits still being valued as low as $10 or $20 an ounce and no more than 40 or 50. and gold's at 3,600 and they know it'll cost them between 150 to 200 an ounce if they go out and try to do it themselves. So I suspect in 2026 we're going to see mania almost in the M&A business in the metals and mining and reaching down to the juniors. >> Yeah, it's nice that they're not doing it right at the top of the market as you've mentioned as they've learned from past times on the cyclical side. Uh let's get specific for the audience. I mean in this environment that you've described, you're clearly buying a lot of junior stocks. I mean, you know, I could ask your wife about that, but maybe not today. Um, without giving official investment advice, I mean, walk us through the characteristics of a company that you're actively buying right now and give us an example of maybe a company in your portfolio that you believe perfectly embodies this strategy. Well, let me give you the example that I took the biggest loss ever in my life, let alone it was in a junior and it was another hard lesson despite supposedly 41 years of experience which made me put in three big words in my desk over here. Management, management, management. >> Uh management is key and management that's put substantial money of their own. Not cheap options or anything but hard dollars to become an owner. So that would take me to and I'll just discuss and I am talking my own book. It's my largest personal holding ever of anything. It fits what I just talked about. It's a copper gold uh deposit in British Columbia. The name of the company is North Copper and Gold. Has 7 million ounces of gold, three billion pounds of copper. Four cornerstone investors and management own almost half the outstanding shares, all with hard dollars that they pay for, including a CEO that a year ago took a large amount of his own money and exercise call options that weren't even in the money yet simply because he would only do that unless he thinks it's going to go up a lot. This way, his tax bill will be lower when it comes forward. So management putting their own money location and the type of metal they're looking for is the criteria at least for me and that keeps me basically restricted to North America. I'm very concerned what's happened in West Africa and other places can happen of m you know countries taking over these mines. So I think where the jurisdiction and let's face it, you take Quebec, you take Ontario, even British Columbia, some of the best places here in the US, Nevada, Arizona. I think if we stay focused there, it'd be safer than sorry. >> Interesting. Okay. So jurisdictional risk obviously still in your in your analysis and I I guess skin in the game most important. It's always nice to see somebody that's running the company has skin in the game, too. I got to ask you on the flip question, you know, I mean, because this is just as important, you know, giving your thesis of this contracting economy and a system under stress. What is on your avoid at all costs list? I mean, what are the characteristics of a company or even a sector that you believe is the most vulnerable right now? And you can give us kind of an example or even a well-known stock or an industry where you believe it's the short of the decade. Well, I don't want to say it's short, but I was hoping you wouldn't get to this point so I would have a very happy interview, but I always answer questions. I never duck them. So, I am not a big believer in cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin. I call it Bitcon. I I I do think it's a lot like the.com era. There'll be a tremendous shakeout in that industry. Uh there will be survivors. Cryptocurrencies will be used, not to the level that people are talking about. you know, there's now somebody talking about it getting to 10 trillion and it can't even get above 125,000 and really has traded in a range for three the last three to five years. So, I think that's part of a market and that's part of the reason why uh I felt that the market could fi finally have a a sharp fall. I began the year thinking the stock market was going to be flat, but a couple weeks ago I became greatly more concerned and I issued a potential stock market crash scenario, but at least a hard fall coming. And part of that reason is and and this is a good example technology hubris. We had a brand new technology. It was wonderful. It was going to change the world. It has. But people became so hubist and thought it could just go on forever. It didn't matter what the values were. Don't even worry about it. Toss it aside. If you can make a.com, you make a killing. And we all know what happened there. Well, that's kind of what happened with cryptocurrency. Now, the Wall Street has just said it's just going to go to the moon and it's just going to continue be endless and you can't almost in a sense can't lose. when markets get like that or any one thing that hubris takes over and it it's it's a it's a it's a danger when you add a lot of other factors for it. So I am not and of course I'll get all the hate mail and it's a it's a cult and so forth but I I would not want to see any client of our planning group other than a speculation uh build any type start buying it at these levels. Someday they'll be I think a lot cheaper. Some will outlast others and and and stand alone. I don't think Bitcoin is that one, but that's an industry that I don't want to have any part of. >> Interesting. Okay. Well, I don't want any hate mill either. But let's bridge the gap then because we can talk about El Salvador. It was just announced this morning that their first ever, well, not first ever, but their first gold purchase since 1990, and they've added $50 million of gold to their reserves. And of course, this is the same country that has famously made Bitcoin legal tinder. What does that tell you when a nation is simultaneously stacking the oldest apolitical asset which is gold and what some would call the newest which is Bitcoin? I mean is this the start of a new playbook for smaller nations? >> Well, I guess it's no longer a relic to him which because that's what it was kind of called gold when it was half the price it currently is. But I would think the next followup is going to be that you're going to learn that they sold some of their Bitcoin. That that's just my that's just my guess. Not by wanting because it satisfies a belief, but I think that's what will happen is I think they're recognizing that even if you're going to buy the crypto argument, it has to include gold. Let's not forget and the biggest spokesperson of them said just a few years ago, get rid of everything including gold and own Bitcoin. That hasn't proved worthy. You know, gold has done we all know what it's done. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And I I mean I have to I have to use the strong counterargument or else I will get that hate. I mean it it almost feels like it's a bit of a >> no matter what >> either. >> Well, I mean you know there there is a there is a strong counterargue that this move is a little bit of desperation not strategy. I mean El Salvador is effectively locked out of traditional debt markets and their Bitcoin has been extremely volatile. I'm curious, you know, isn't this gold purchase simply a PR move and and a kind of an attempt to find any stable asset rather than the beginning of a credible new monetary strategy that other nations will actually follow? >> Well, the other nations have not gone into the Bitcoin as you said. Uh they've gone into gold. That's why gold has got to where it's at because central banks basically ones associated with the bricks movement are buying used quantity. So, uh, I don't think it's a new thing. I think that there's some realization there, whether it is a political ploy or or a recognition. And like I said, I think you'll see a followup soon that they've sold some of their Bitcoin and they're going to put more of it into gold. >> Yeah, we'll watch for that one. Maybe that's when we'll have you on next, Peter. Uh, we'll give you a little dance. >> Have you on again if it doesn't happen? >> True, true. Okay. >> That's what the comment people are going to tell you to do. So, >> yeah, let's not have them on. Okay. Well, then let's bring in the human element of all of this that everyone kind of understands. I mean, for years, many of our viewers have held these stocks through painful draw downs while the S&P 500 roared higher. I mean, when we're talking about the miners, now the rules may be reversing. But what is your advice on managing, you know, the psychology of a bull market in a sector known for volatility, especially when the temptation is to sell too early or to chase recklessly? >> Well, you are right. Uh but when you think about this, the example why I think it's going to go higher. >> Mhm. >> It may be as early as today. I haven't had a check chance to look at the computer, but Newmont Mining was the second best performing stock in the S&P 500 for this year and was close to going number one. Yet, I would tell you that if we looked at portfolios throughout the world, including the United States, you will find that the other 499 have some exposure in most portfolios and pneumon. So I I I the one thing I'll just say is I can't answer for past reasons why markets didn't go forward but the mining stocks particularly the majors forgetting the juniors for a moment because juniors are nothing more than speculations and speculation was a word us on Wall Street use so we don't have to call it what it really is gambling but major mining companies are now at it such a unique scenario not only financially that we spoke about but politically you You know, 10, 20 years ago in your great province, British Columbia, man, if if there was a turtle or an owl or something, you couldn't build a mine. Politics lining up with mining now almost standing side by side is happening because of the great shortage that now exists for critical minerals. And therefore, I think the looking at miners now versus any other time in the past may be a little unfair because the fundamentals that they have going for them now just didn't exist in the last cycles. >> Yeah. No, that makes sense. Uh invaluable look at strategy. Okay, before we let you go, a final look at the bigger picture. I mean, based on everything that we're seeing, what is the single most consequence long-term trend that you believe was just accelerated by the events of this past week, this latest data? >> Well, that that that Trump and his banging the drum that this is the greatest economy ever. And I'm not an anti-Trump sir. I voted for Donald Trump. I think he's done some great things with immigration law. What he's trying to do with the health here in the United States and all is great through RFK. But he made a huge mistake of taking a big stick into a trade war when he should have took an olive branch. And therefore I he's done more to alienate us on the world stage and world economy and all. And that combined with the employment situation and us going into I think clearly be a recession is going to make it that much more challenging than it would have been if he had gone with a different approach with trade. Mhm. So this this whole era it feels if you're a you know a serious investor, the era of complacency, it feels over then, right? >> Well, I I just think it's it's harder than buy at the lower left of the corner and sell at the top right. And I think investors are learning that. And what's real concerning about that to to really put a cherry on top of if I may, in recent weeks, we've had record public buying of equities while simultaneously at the same time some of the biggest selling levels for both corporate insiders and large institutions. And I've been at this 41 years, and I don't mean to offend because there's probably an individual or two out there that done well, but the public beating corporate insiders and institutional investors over my 41 years has happened exactly zero times. The public tends to always be at the latter stage and that's another great concern of mine as well. >> Interesting. So, keep keep an eye on those inside trades. Uh, okay. I appreciate that. It it feels like it is the end of complacency. powerful framework for a market at a turning point. Peter Grantage, thanks for your time and providing such a clear analysis today. Um, I know you didn't give one more. I mean, you you did give me one stock that everyone should go pick up, right? >> Well, not again, not everybody should pick up, you know, I hate cookie cutter approaches and when people I watch husbands and wives that are completely different and they're one unit as a family. What you asked me about is if there was one example that fit all my criteria and yes that that was North Dile copper and gold but that doesn't mean everybody listening should run out and buy it tomorrow. You have to in junior resource stocks failure is the norm. I have 10 now. I assure you if I live long enough three to five years from now at least five will not have worked. And those who bought those fives will say to you that Peter Grandich yada yada yada yada. So be very careful. But if you can take risk mentally and financially, yeah, you can look at a company like that. >> Yeah, well said. Uh, do your research. We always ask for it. Okay, Peter Kren is joining us now. Thanks for this, Peter. I appreciate your time today. >> Thank you as always, Jeremy. God bless. >> Thanks so much. You as well. Appreciate Peter's time. Of course, we got lots to get into. It's going to be an interesting week coming up in the markets. We're going to be right here on KCO News covering it all. Stay with us. Be sure to subscribe and we'll see you next time. Heat. Heat. [Music] Heat. Heat. [Music]
Is Gold Having Its 'Dow 3,600' Moment? A Surprising Parallel from the 1980s Bull Market
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Transcript
[Music] Hey everyone, welcome back. I'm Jeremy Sappern. Okay, we're here to break down a profound divergence in the financial markets and a deep split in the story the numbers are telling us. Here are the facts. Now, a recent US jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a headline net gain of only 22,000 jobs. But when you look deeper into the government's own data, a statistical model known as the birth death adjustment actually added 96,000 jobs. So without that model, the core number was a decline of 74,000. Now that is the economic picture, one that points to contraction, not growth. And the bond market is reacting in kind. We've seen a clear flight to safety with the 10-year Treasury yield falling sharply. And then of course there's the clear message from the heart asset. Spot gold has shown significant strength. It just touched at the time of taping this this morning on the spot side $3,600. It's wild times on that chart. December Comx silver futures have reached a 14-year high of over $42 an ounce. And I should mention that Bitcoin is down on this latest economic news. So, okay, we have a fundamental divergence. Economic data pointing to contraction, a bond market signaling recession in an equity market that after a failed attempt to rally this morning is now being forced to grapple with that reality. So, here to help break down and make sense of these conflicting signals is veteran market strategist Peter Grandich. Uh, Peter, great to see you. Thank you for joining us. Uh hope you've had a great summer. >> We have. Thank you very much, Jeremy. >> Well, let's start let's start with that great divergence. I mean, which of these market signals I just mentioned in your view is telling the truth? >> Uh the gold market uh it's been telling the truth for several years that people refuse to listen to >> and uh we now see as you know, you noted that the BLS uh uses this birth death model. I don't know what model after Trump gets his guy in there that they're going to come up with to try to massage it even more. But I've said for quite a while they should just drop the L there and call the BS because that's what the employment numbers have been. We're going to see in a couple days a look back that's going to maybe knock off well over a million jobs that were created supposedly in the last 12 18 months. So I think we have a wakeup call today. uh all this talk Trump beating the drum how great the economy is and all that kind of stuff and the bond market is telling you that at least for the time being not only for safety but that the the big drop in interest rates is uh I I suspect I haven't heard it yet but I suspect we're going to hear a word that hasn't been used in a while from the don't worry be happy crowd on Wall Street and that is soft landing. um they they'll admit there's now a good chance of recession, but don't worry, it's going to be a soft landing. And I can tell you if I had a dollar for every soft landing that didn't work, I could buy a nice uh steak dinner tonight. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well said. Uh it's interesting. I mean, there's so many ways that we can go, Peter, but I I guess we we'll start with the Fed's role in all of this. I mean, the futures market is now pricing in three quarter point rate cuts by year end, assuming the Fed can rescue the economy. But with global bond yields rising due to of course inflation and these debt concerns, is the Fed actually losing control? I mean, can they truly stimulate the economy if the global bond market is starting to revolt against fiscal and discipline? >> So, I have argued for the last several years, not always, but in the last 5 years or so that the Fed became more like the Wizard of Oz. Uh, with the curtain closed, it looked like they were powerful and all knowing, but when the curtain was pulled back, we found out that they really blundered. And we know that they blundered uh in in recent years and now at least Trump's argument that they were behind the curve is legit. It's hard to argue that they were seeing a strong economy based on the numbers that we're now seeing that are supposedly the realistic numbers even though there's going to be an adjustment that's going to make it even look that it was a weaker market. So I I don't know if the Fed still sits in the in the role that when I first started in the business how dominant they were at the markets and you know one comment by them could really move markets. I think what's important to recognize is that while we may be seeing this rally underway, world bond markets are under a bit of a trouble in some key markets and and why that's important not just for them, but they are normally people that have stepped in to buy our debt and they're going to have issues on their own which is probably going to curtail that. So, even though we have a rally today in the long end, do not be surprised that even if we do get someone in the Fed that is going to dramatically try to lower short-term rates, we might not see the same effect on the long end. And why that's critical, that's where all rates, whether it's for mortgages, cars, and other consumer loans are based on not the short-term rates, but long-term rates. >> Yeah. And I mean, it brings us to a critical point about the institutional credibility. You brought up the BLS, or as you call it, the BS, right? I mean, the White House has recently fired that commissioner and put somebody else who's been on my show before, AJ EJ Anthony, I should say. Um, you know, they're overseeing also the leadership transition at the Federal Reserve. When you see this level of direct political pressure on both the agency that produces the data and the institution that acts on it, is the powerful move that we're seeing in assets like gold a sign that the market is beginning to price in a serious political risk premium as well? >> Oh, it has been. Uh I I know some of the people who have been strong advocates for gold outside the people that are always you know talking about gold going up starting to use words that I haven't heard since the early 80s that were describing a lot of things that were happening in South America calling us at the earliest stage of a banana republic and where it happens in the banana republic is when whoever the political powers it be twist the arms of people in charge of the monetary end and force just huge you know creation of money in hopes of, you know, solving the major problems that are out there. And and that's the concern of at least some and me when the president is becoming so influential and wants to start in a sense putting his own people in. Uh I I think we're in a danger zone here and I think people recognize that. Listen to know where we are in the world. And I I want to get this in. I'm sorry, Jeremy, if I'm skipping out. This weekend in China, most people will go shopping for gold. The the the malls are just full of people young and old, taking their money and buying gold. For those here in the US that still can go out, they're taking borrowed money to buy a lot of things they don't need. Gold has been a tremendous barometer that Wall Street doesn't tend to look at because it's kryptonite to them because it normally shows the real facts of what's happening in financial assets. So I think the rally in gold for no other reason whether you're a bull on gold or mining stocks what have you is a key factor to be looking at and the fact that it's just rising continuously and sharply here is clearly signal that the US and some other areas in the world have some very difficult problems ahead. Yeah. Yeah. It's going to be interesting watching. We're going to move on to gold and of course you know you are Peter Greenwich. We got to talk about the miners too. move. But first, let's just wrap up on that Fed policy because there was a really interesting new critique that was just published in the Wall Street Journal by Treasury Secretary Scott Besson just this morning. And this is what it is. I don't know if you've read it, but he argues that the Fed's use of tools like quantitive easing has become a what he calls gain of function monetary policy or experiment that has escaped the lab. He writes that the Fed quote must scale back the distortions it causes in the economy. I guess my question is is what are the biggest distortions that you see that have resulted from this experiment and and have they now become permanent features of our market? >> Well, the what he doesn't seem to want to focus on and if you remember early in the administration, we were getting almost hourly social media views of Trump being with Musk talking about how Doge was not only going to solve and get rid of the deficits, but also pay down the debt. Where did that all go? Instead, it's gone in the opposite direction. And what that is telling you is there gets to a point where you just put on so much debt that the only choice that governments or whoever in charge, Federal Reserve or wherever else it may be, can only print money because the other choice of hardcore deflation, we went through a depression once in this country and it's far worse than an inflationary crisis. So I I just think that whatever replaces uh the Fed, if it's going to be replaced in some manner led by someone different taking different ideas and removing themselves, the only weapon that they will have at the end of the day is to print money. And that's another reason why gold is reacting this way because people recognize that and they know at the end that's going to be extremely bullish especially since where growth is still occurring in the world mostly through Asia those folks many of them are joining groups particularly the bricks in order not to be involved with the United States or its currency. So this is also the the terminal stage for the US dollar that has been talked about for decades and people talked about it. We're in that now and you will see whoever does become in charge whether he's just or she is a figurehead for Trump or an independent person that they're going to just cheapen the dollar and and print money and and that is only bullish for gold. >> Has uh this price action I mean this past week it's been remarkable to watch. Has the price action made you a little bit nervous? I talked to other analysts and they go okay you could slow down a little bit take a breath. What are your thoughts? Well, here's the story I give with that, Jeremy, and it's worth the time to telling it. So, when I entered in the dinosaur age in the early 1980s, when almost twothirds of current financial advisors weren't even born or were in diapers, we had a person come out and say that the Dow was going to go to 3600. And no one knew who he was at the time. His name was Robert Prector Jr. He had a thing called the Elliot wave theory. And why he was viewed so crazy at the time was for 13 years the Dow before that had just traded between 700 and a,000. In fact, a very famous magazine ran a front page cover of the business we called equities are dead. So people scoffed and laughed and said listen this 3600 we can't get to 30. We can't even get above a thousand. Well we all know it went a lot further over the years past 36. That same mode is steal and gold for so many years trading in a range. Okay, now finally went through 2,000 and number we talked about 5,000 and 10,000 can't happen. You know, it's just it's too too much and especially in the time frame some people are talking about. Well, that was the same kind of attitude they had back there. Doesn't mean it's going to happen. But just the fact that it's moved in the manner that it has doesn't mean that it can't keep going. Yeah, of course there's going to be times when look what we just went through. This summer was a dream come true for me. I said, "If we can go the whole summer and go sideways and let moving averages catch up and all, it's going to set the stage for four or $5,000 gold." And now we have it. So, yeah, very very short term. You're a trader. I'm not a trader. I can't I only need one hand to count all the people made money trading, but I think if you're long-term and you still invest over the years, I think the only cost for gold still is higher. >> Okay. So 4,000 I mean that 5 to 10 call is that just kind of out of the realm here I guess to your thesis who the hell knows. >> No it's not that what you just don't want. I mean if you want to say is there anything Pete Granite that's a gold bull doesn't want to see. >> I wouldn't want you to call me up six months from now willing and say Pete do you mind coming on and talking about $10,000 goal that we just hit because if we hit it that soon or in a relatively short period of time what occurred in the world would be a lot worse than whatever we're talking about today. Mhm. Yeah. Yeah. What about silver, Peter? I mean, let's drill down on I mean, gold gets the headlines, but silver just hit that 14-year high. I mean, with its all-time high at around $50 in sight now. Do you see silver is simply following gold, or is this price action telling us a unique story about both that flight to safety and expectation of the industrial use? >> Until a few months ago, for my entire career, silver was always a second choice over gold. But when it got below 30 this year, I took the time to really listen to a couple very smart people. Not all these people are always telling you silver is going to the moon. And they presented an argument, fundamental argument that was second to none. And so I decided that silver now can be on the same breath as gold. And then I decided after I did purchase it that I could actually lead gold at times. So I think it has its best fundamental argument in the 41 years that I've been at it. And let's not forget, everybody's talking about an uh the old hunt high of, you know, $50 and change. Well, based when that was made, we'd have to get to almost $200 to adjust for inflation. So, my call last week for $100 silver price, I don't think it's out of the realm. It's merely just more of a double from here. So, I think we can get get to see a triple digit uh silver price and that would be a probably a 5,000 or more gold price at the same time. >> Wow, that's wild. I mean, silver does have the reputation for being gold on steroids in a bull market, and obviously we're seeing that high. So, what does that mean for the gold to silver ratio? >> Well, I I never got caught up in that even since I turned bullish on it because it's just it just changes. There's no calling for that. Clearly, when something had that big of a discrepancy, you could the mean reverse should happen. Uh but I I just think that right now that uh what they're going to run one two and maybe sometimes one will be in front of another but they're both going to work their way higher. Yeah. Let's switch over to miners and and obviously that brings us to silver miners first which often even you know offer more leverage. Uh it's notoriously volatile sector and you can see these explosive moves as we have. But let's bring it back Peter. I mean for for investors looking at this space how should they think about silver miners right now? Is there, you know, is there a better riskreward proposition than gold miners or is their industrial component kind of an added risk in a slowing economy? >> They would probably one of my second or third choices. One thing you have to think about when people think of silver mining. For a lot of years, silver was basically a byproduct to the mining industry. It wasn't a lot of emphasis, you know, was low price compared to the other metals. But because it looks like it's distinguished and it's it's building a very good fundamental argument its own, some people may just want to seek people that can just get them the silver. We know China is doing that. So the bottom line is there they are worth to look at. But I think the most ideal metal combination right now is gold, copper. In fact, some of the biggest names in the mining business with Barrett being the most vocal about it are talking about how more and more of their focus is coming on potential mines that have copper and gold. And the reason that is uh gold has become such a strong monetary price. It can help fund a higher cost that a mine like copper is to develop. So I I would look first with gold and copper, then gold on its own and maybe silver right behind it. Uh those are the leading metals. Now, of course, if you want to get into critical mineral arguments and talk about metals that I can't even spell, let alone pronounce, there's going to be a great need for them, but my focus mainly is in the gold, silver, and copper markets. >> Yeah. Interesting. It's I mean, watching the entire mining sector right now is pretty interesting. It seems like it's the end of complacency. Uh I'm a little bit curious. I mean the sector has seen many false dawn right I mean what's what specific structural changes are you seeing in the industry a lack of new discoveries a coming M&A cycle maybe a shift in capital flows that makes you kind of believe that this time is is is real it's going to be one of these sustainable bull markets >> well the first is that the majors are in much better capital shape than they've ever been >> by now in past rises they'd already been getting leverage to the hill borrowing all sorts of money to make major acquisitions and instead head because of record cash flow because of how well the price has gone up and and costs have not followed. These record- free cash flows have allowed them to pristinously make their balance sheet so much more stronger and I think longerlasting. They haven't even begun in a big way to use it as a currency to go out and get new resources. Yes, they've reached sideways to some and then reaching down to the emerging producers, but they haven't at all really gone after the junior market to get their organic growth and look at what they may be able to get five or 10 years from now. So, I think a that they're in much better better shape. The world has also shrunk for them. There's a lot of places they won't go to now that they would have went because of social political look what's happening in West Africa, you know, countries taking over mines and so forth. And then the third, because there hasn't been a lot of money flowing into the industry, there's a lot of money that has needs to be created for them to go out and say, "Listen, we're going to take the risk to build copper mines that because copper is so much needed now, etc., etc." And yet mo almost everyone that I talk to feels that unless it gets substantially above five and for a while, they're not going to put billions or tens of billions of dollars to work, especially in areas where they have to be concerned about the viability of their mine and that they'll still be owning it when they wake up the next morning. >> Yeah, that's an interesting way of looking at it, too. I mean, you're talking about obviously the different tiers. I mean, the producers, as you mentioned, are seeing these massive cash flows with the spot gold now approaching $3,600, even more. But the explorers, the juniors, are they still offering pure high beta optionality? I mean, how should an investor think about allocating capital between these tiers? I mean, what signals do you look for that tells you it's time to get aggressive in the high-risk exploration, the junior space? >> Well, if I get any more aggressive in the juniors, that woman sitting in the other room may not have me sitting in the seat for too much longer. So, I have backed up the truck, Jeremy, on the juniors. I think they are the most attractive they've been in the 40 years that I've been given the medals given where we just talked about the needs for medals and so forth and so on and they haven't begun to have the run that the majors have already had and some of the second tier producers and they're just starting to lift off. The problem that they face and there are a few still challenges for them. One is they don't have the same audience that we have. I'll argue that there's less people looking at juniors now despite the dramatic increase in medals than there was 15 20 years ago when I spent a full livelihood in that arena. Second, it's more challenging for them. We talked about the risk around the world, but it's also here in the United States, even discount brokers are not allowing their own clients on their own choices to buy junior resource stocks that may have an OT symbol, but trade in a Canadian exchange. So it's more challenging for a junior company itself and also getting the recognition. There aren't brokers anymore that build books of businesses around these things. So it's more challenging for the industry. But the majors will go that route. Not when they can't pass up when you see significant not just grassroots or cow pastures but legitimate companies identifying clear multi-million ounce deposits still being valued as low as $10 or $20 an ounce and no more than 40 or 50. and gold's at 3,600 and they know it'll cost them between 150 to 200 an ounce if they go out and try to do it themselves. So I suspect in 2026 we're going to see mania almost in the M&A business in the metals and mining and reaching down to the juniors. >> Yeah, it's nice that they're not doing it right at the top of the market as you've mentioned as they've learned from past times on the cyclical side. Uh let's get specific for the audience. I mean in this environment that you've described, you're clearly buying a lot of junior stocks. I mean, you know, I could ask your wife about that, but maybe not today. Um, without giving official investment advice, I mean, walk us through the characteristics of a company that you're actively buying right now and give us an example of maybe a company in your portfolio that you believe perfectly embodies this strategy. Well, let me give you the example that I took the biggest loss ever in my life, let alone it was in a junior and it was another hard lesson despite supposedly 41 years of experience which made me put in three big words in my desk over here. Management, management, management. >> Uh management is key and management that's put substantial money of their own. Not cheap options or anything but hard dollars to become an owner. So that would take me to and I'll just discuss and I am talking my own book. It's my largest personal holding ever of anything. It fits what I just talked about. It's a copper gold uh deposit in British Columbia. The name of the company is North Copper and Gold. Has 7 million ounces of gold, three billion pounds of copper. Four cornerstone investors and management own almost half the outstanding shares, all with hard dollars that they pay for, including a CEO that a year ago took a large amount of his own money and exercise call options that weren't even in the money yet simply because he would only do that unless he thinks it's going to go up a lot. This way, his tax bill will be lower when it comes forward. So management putting their own money location and the type of metal they're looking for is the criteria at least for me and that keeps me basically restricted to North America. I'm very concerned what's happened in West Africa and other places can happen of m you know countries taking over these mines. So I think where the jurisdiction and let's face it, you take Quebec, you take Ontario, even British Columbia, some of the best places here in the US, Nevada, Arizona. I think if we stay focused there, it'd be safer than sorry. >> Interesting. Okay. So jurisdictional risk obviously still in your in your analysis and I I guess skin in the game most important. It's always nice to see somebody that's running the company has skin in the game, too. I got to ask you on the flip question, you know, I mean, because this is just as important, you know, giving your thesis of this contracting economy and a system under stress. What is on your avoid at all costs list? I mean, what are the characteristics of a company or even a sector that you believe is the most vulnerable right now? And you can give us kind of an example or even a well-known stock or an industry where you believe it's the short of the decade. Well, I don't want to say it's short, but I was hoping you wouldn't get to this point so I would have a very happy interview, but I always answer questions. I never duck them. So, I am not a big believer in cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin. I call it Bitcon. I I I do think it's a lot like the.com era. There'll be a tremendous shakeout in that industry. Uh there will be survivors. Cryptocurrencies will be used, not to the level that people are talking about. you know, there's now somebody talking about it getting to 10 trillion and it can't even get above 125,000 and really has traded in a range for three the last three to five years. So, I think that's part of a market and that's part of the reason why uh I felt that the market could fi finally have a a sharp fall. I began the year thinking the stock market was going to be flat, but a couple weeks ago I became greatly more concerned and I issued a potential stock market crash scenario, but at least a hard fall coming. And part of that reason is and and this is a good example technology hubris. We had a brand new technology. It was wonderful. It was going to change the world. It has. But people became so hubist and thought it could just go on forever. It didn't matter what the values were. Don't even worry about it. Toss it aside. If you can make a.com, you make a killing. And we all know what happened there. Well, that's kind of what happened with cryptocurrency. Now, the Wall Street has just said it's just going to go to the moon and it's just going to continue be endless and you can't almost in a sense can't lose. when markets get like that or any one thing that hubris takes over and it it's it's a it's a it's a danger when you add a lot of other factors for it. So I am not and of course I'll get all the hate mail and it's a it's a cult and so forth but I I would not want to see any client of our planning group other than a speculation uh build any type start buying it at these levels. Someday they'll be I think a lot cheaper. Some will outlast others and and and stand alone. I don't think Bitcoin is that one, but that's an industry that I don't want to have any part of. >> Interesting. Okay. Well, I don't want any hate mill either. But let's bridge the gap then because we can talk about El Salvador. It was just announced this morning that their first ever, well, not first ever, but their first gold purchase since 1990, and they've added $50 million of gold to their reserves. And of course, this is the same country that has famously made Bitcoin legal tinder. What does that tell you when a nation is simultaneously stacking the oldest apolitical asset which is gold and what some would call the newest which is Bitcoin? I mean is this the start of a new playbook for smaller nations? >> Well, I guess it's no longer a relic to him which because that's what it was kind of called gold when it was half the price it currently is. But I would think the next followup is going to be that you're going to learn that they sold some of their Bitcoin. That that's just my that's just my guess. Not by wanting because it satisfies a belief, but I think that's what will happen is I think they're recognizing that even if you're going to buy the crypto argument, it has to include gold. Let's not forget and the biggest spokesperson of them said just a few years ago, get rid of everything including gold and own Bitcoin. That hasn't proved worthy. You know, gold has done we all know what it's done. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And I I mean I have to I have to use the strong counterargument or else I will get that hate. I mean it it almost feels like it's a bit of a >> no matter what >> either. >> Well, I mean you know there there is a there is a strong counterargue that this move is a little bit of desperation not strategy. I mean El Salvador is effectively locked out of traditional debt markets and their Bitcoin has been extremely volatile. I'm curious, you know, isn't this gold purchase simply a PR move and and a kind of an attempt to find any stable asset rather than the beginning of a credible new monetary strategy that other nations will actually follow? >> Well, the other nations have not gone into the Bitcoin as you said. Uh they've gone into gold. That's why gold has got to where it's at because central banks basically ones associated with the bricks movement are buying used quantity. So, uh, I don't think it's a new thing. I think that there's some realization there, whether it is a political ploy or or a recognition. And like I said, I think you'll see a followup soon that they've sold some of their Bitcoin and they're going to put more of it into gold. >> Yeah, we'll watch for that one. Maybe that's when we'll have you on next, Peter. Uh, we'll give you a little dance. >> Have you on again if it doesn't happen? >> True, true. Okay. >> That's what the comment people are going to tell you to do. So, >> yeah, let's not have them on. Okay. Well, then let's bring in the human element of all of this that everyone kind of understands. I mean, for years, many of our viewers have held these stocks through painful draw downs while the S&P 500 roared higher. I mean, when we're talking about the miners, now the rules may be reversing. But what is your advice on managing, you know, the psychology of a bull market in a sector known for volatility, especially when the temptation is to sell too early or to chase recklessly? >> Well, you are right. Uh but when you think about this, the example why I think it's going to go higher. >> Mhm. >> It may be as early as today. I haven't had a check chance to look at the computer, but Newmont Mining was the second best performing stock in the S&P 500 for this year and was close to going number one. Yet, I would tell you that if we looked at portfolios throughout the world, including the United States, you will find that the other 499 have some exposure in most portfolios and pneumon. So I I I the one thing I'll just say is I can't answer for past reasons why markets didn't go forward but the mining stocks particularly the majors forgetting the juniors for a moment because juniors are nothing more than speculations and speculation was a word us on Wall Street use so we don't have to call it what it really is gambling but major mining companies are now at it such a unique scenario not only financially that we spoke about but politically you You know, 10, 20 years ago in your great province, British Columbia, man, if if there was a turtle or an owl or something, you couldn't build a mine. Politics lining up with mining now almost standing side by side is happening because of the great shortage that now exists for critical minerals. And therefore, I think the looking at miners now versus any other time in the past may be a little unfair because the fundamentals that they have going for them now just didn't exist in the last cycles. >> Yeah. No, that makes sense. Uh invaluable look at strategy. Okay, before we let you go, a final look at the bigger picture. I mean, based on everything that we're seeing, what is the single most consequence long-term trend that you believe was just accelerated by the events of this past week, this latest data? >> Well, that that that Trump and his banging the drum that this is the greatest economy ever. And I'm not an anti-Trump sir. I voted for Donald Trump. I think he's done some great things with immigration law. What he's trying to do with the health here in the United States and all is great through RFK. But he made a huge mistake of taking a big stick into a trade war when he should have took an olive branch. And therefore I he's done more to alienate us on the world stage and world economy and all. And that combined with the employment situation and us going into I think clearly be a recession is going to make it that much more challenging than it would have been if he had gone with a different approach with trade. Mhm. So this this whole era it feels if you're a you know a serious investor, the era of complacency, it feels over then, right? >> Well, I I just think it's it's harder than buy at the lower left of the corner and sell at the top right. And I think investors are learning that. And what's real concerning about that to to really put a cherry on top of if I may, in recent weeks, we've had record public buying of equities while simultaneously at the same time some of the biggest selling levels for both corporate insiders and large institutions. And I've been at this 41 years, and I don't mean to offend because there's probably an individual or two out there that done well, but the public beating corporate insiders and institutional investors over my 41 years has happened exactly zero times. The public tends to always be at the latter stage and that's another great concern of mine as well. >> Interesting. So, keep keep an eye on those inside trades. Uh, okay. I appreciate that. It it feels like it is the end of complacency. powerful framework for a market at a turning point. Peter Grantage, thanks for your time and providing such a clear analysis today. Um, I know you didn't give one more. I mean, you you did give me one stock that everyone should go pick up, right? >> Well, not again, not everybody should pick up, you know, I hate cookie cutter approaches and when people I watch husbands and wives that are completely different and they're one unit as a family. What you asked me about is if there was one example that fit all my criteria and yes that that was North Dile copper and gold but that doesn't mean everybody listening should run out and buy it tomorrow. You have to in junior resource stocks failure is the norm. I have 10 now. I assure you if I live long enough three to five years from now at least five will not have worked. And those who bought those fives will say to you that Peter Grandich yada yada yada yada. So be very careful. But if you can take risk mentally and financially, yeah, you can look at a company like that. >> Yeah, well said. Uh, do your research. We always ask for it. Okay, Peter Kren is joining us now. Thanks for this, Peter. I appreciate your time today. >> Thank you as always, Jeremy. God bless. >> Thanks so much. You as well. Appreciate Peter's time. Of course, we got lots to get into. It's going to be an interesting week coming up in the markets. We're going to be right here on KCO News covering it all. Stay with us. Be sure to subscribe and we'll see you next time. Heat. Heat. [Music] Heat. Heat. [Music]