Is the Mining Bull Market Almost Over? I asked 5 Experts in Beaver Creek
Summary
Market Outlook: The podcast discusses the current state of the precious metals market, emphasizing that it is indeed a bull market with significant price increases in gold and related equities.
Investment Strategies: Experts suggest focusing on quality investments, such as large-cap producers and royalty companies, which tend to move first in a bull market, while also considering opportunities in smaller producers and development plays for higher returns.
Gold Market Dynamics: The discussion highlights the role of central banks and geopolitical risks in sustaining gold prices, with particular attention to the impact of real interest rates and safe haven demand.
Structural Changes: The podcast notes a shift in global financial dynamics, including a move away from US Treasuries towards gold, driven by concerns over US debt and currency devaluation.
Silver Market Signals: A significant rise in silver prices and silver miners is discussed as a potential indicator of market peaks, with historical patterns suggesting caution during such spikes.
Investment Risks: The importance of understanding and managing risks is emphasized, particularly in the context of potential market corrections and the cyclical nature of bull markets.
Company Insights: The podcast features discussions on specific companies and projects, highlighting the importance of selecting investments with strong fundamentals and growth potential.
Investor Caution: Listeners are advised to remain vigilant, conduct thorough research, and be wary of market hype, especially during bull markets when inefficiencies and speculative behavior can increase.
Transcript
[Applause] Thank you for watching Resource Talks and welcome to part one of my coverage at the Precious Metal Summit here in Beaver Creek, Colorado this year, where over the last couple of days, I've single-handedly depleted at least half of their strategic peanut supply. But I've also spent some time talking to some of the smartest people in the room trying to figure out if this is the actual breakout uh and whether it is the bull market in precious metals that we've all been waiting for. Is it a breakout or is it a fake out? And if it is an actual breakout, what is the thing that is going to make me the most money over the next 12 months? And then after that, when is this bull market going to end? And what is the thing that's going to end it? That's what I was asking them. And uh that's what you're about to watch. [Music] All right, Neil, I want to talk to you about bull markets and specifically whether what we are in right now is one. Is this a breakout or is it a fake out? >> No, we're certainly in a bull market. You know, we're seeing prices I think I looked at GDX earlier today and it was up 95% year to date, which on the big gold majors, you know, just moving that much in 8 months, you certainly can't argue that that's not a bull market. So, yeah. No, this is definitely a proper bull market. You know, it feels feels a bit weird cuz we've not had one for quite a long time. So, yeah, there's lots of smiley faces at Precious Metal Summit at the moment. All right, Greg, is it a breakout or is it a fake out? >> Uh, no. It's definitely a breakout. There's there's more money coming in that's been on the sidelines. And so, that's that's the first thing you look for. And I and I think we're also seeing uh, you know, companies, you know, the enthusiasm is definitely there. And there there's definitely a pick up in you know, people's steps around here. The question is is you know, are you going to go up and then come back down? And that's usually, you know, the when everybody gets all excited, you got to be a little bit more, you know, careful about what's going on. So, I'm I'm guessing that, you know, we're going to see we'll see some up and downs. I mean, it's not a straight up move. I mean, what we are seeing is um, you know, some of these, you know, development stories and exploration, you know, that hasn't been done for a long time because there's been no money available. they're starting to get money and so they'll start to get results and then that'll get people excited. >> So there's still that to come in this cycle. I mean and this conference is, you know, it's definitely the uh exploration development. So >> yeah. Well, you weren't here last year, but you were here the year before that, I think. How is it feeling now versus then? There's definitely a like I said people have a definitely a pick up in their step you know compared to where they were you know a couple years ago and you know I I think you know for us you know you know we do invest across you know the small caps micro caps to the large caps and you know my thinking last year was really you know the money is going to be made in the producers because that's going to be the first money that comes in and that was the case but you know now the money starts to you know filter down and so you do have to pick your shots, you know. So, I mean, that's the difficult thing is picking your shots with uh, you know, good projects. >> All right, Joe, I want to talk to you about a bull market cuz this seems a bit bullish here. I mean, the you and I were just talking, but you said you're seeing a lot of people that you haven't seen in a while here at this show, but is this a real bull market or is it more of a a fake out? >> Well, I I would say if if uh like I always take it back to a cane toad. So kain toes in Australia, I mean they last longer than they do because people think uh a good dry when they try to get across the desert will kill them, but they just bury themselves and then they wait for the rain and then they come back up again. I'm seeing a lot of those kind of people here now. >> Okay. >> Yeah. >> But is is it so is it a real bull market or are they just kind? Yeah. I like there's a commodity bull market, there's an equity bull market. So the gold's been doing well for for more than a year, you know, driven by central banks and gold ETFs. Uh and it's never sort of gone down when it should have gone down when real interest rates uh were going up, the central banks kept it elevated. But for the equity to actually move, we need people looking at gold equity ETFs in North America. And that slips, you know, from the idea that real interest rates are actually directionally going down, which directionally that we're expecting a cut in September, you know, but but you know, we're seeing a lot of geopolitical risk. You know, we see what's happening in Israel and Qatar. We just saw this the shooting thing that we just talked about offline. U you know, all those sort of events impact a lot more uncertainty and then we get the safe haven demand. You know, that that sort of growth in the gold price will definitely impact the producers first and continue to impact them. But the cash they've got uh and some of these guys who want to still grow should hopefully bleed into some of these development plays here. >> I think you'd be pretty hardressed to say that this isn't a genuine breakout. I mean, we've, you know, for so long we've been consolidating and and you know, waiting for some major move. You know, we're well past those technical levels of sort of 1900 2,000 an ounce now. We've already had our breakout move that's had its first consolidation sort of that 32 to34 $3,500 level. Um, you know, technically it looks pretty textbook. You know, it looks like phase two of this gold ball market has probably broken out and is underway. You know, you never know. Um, but, you know, putting my pure technical trader hat on, it's pretty pure to be honest. It looks it looks pretty good. So I'm in the camp that this is the probably innings three or four of of this market getting into the the fund phase which is usually the momentum phase. So >> is this a breakout or fake out? >> Yeah. Uh it's a very interesting question and just today like you're looking at the RSI relative strength index. It's the highest it's ever been. You look at gold stretch from its 200 day moving average. You look at gold stretch from its uh three-year moving average. And every time it's this stretched, it's peak, peak, peak, peak, peak all the way back 20 years. All right. So, the question is, is this time different? You know, and usually at tops, people are like, this time's different and but it never really proves out to be. Uh, but there's some, you know, fundamental stuff that's underlying gold that's, you know, driving the gold price higher that's different from previous periods. I was just about to sell some stocks. So, you might as well tell me what that thing is before I do. >> Yeah, it's always good to diversify, right? You know, and take gains and, you know, buy undervalued whatever fixed income or real estate or gross stocks, you know, when gold rips up. That's the best way to manage your exposure as opposed to trying to time the market. Um, but you know, one of the things, one of the reasons the the structural supply demand thing, I love the royalties, right? You know, if you just invested in royalties over the past since 2007, you'd be up 32,000%. Like better than Buffett. But there's been three royalty acquisitions this year. Santor got taken over. Origin, that was one of my favorites, got acquired. And then Elemental. Now, this Elemental story is very interesting because Tether invested 100 mil in Elemental. Tether participated another 100 mil into the deal. Um, so they are on the board of Elemental. And then, um, Tether, right, the Tether stable coins. There's a US dollar stable coin. There is a gold stable coin. So, first of all, the dollar one, they own short-term debt instruments that pay a yield. So, the Tether dollar pays a yield, but also 5% of their portfolio, they're buying physical gold. That Tether Gold token, it's backed 100% by physical gold. Tether is buying two tons of gold per week from um various sources, but they're all keeping in Switzerland in their own vault, like outside the system. And then the CEO is has been here. He's looking at other mining opportunities. Um the CEO of Tether and the CEO of Tether believes the gold stable coin is going to be larger than the US dollar stable coin. US dollar stable coin, it's got $198 billion market cap. The gold stable coin is only two bill. And the reason why we know the reason why cuz crypto holders don't want to own dollars even if they're getting 5% because they know the dollar is going to be devalued. So that Tether's buying the equivalent of the world's largest central banks every year, like bigger than as big if not bigger than China. And if the Tether gold token really picks up, they're going to be cornering the gold's uh the world's gold supply. It's 100 tons per year. That's what China buys. And so there's there's structural things going in the supply demand equation for gold. Um where the demand is going up and the supply has not been going up. >> I think this is the real deal this time. Um, a lot of reasons we can go into, but basically, yeah, this is the real deal. Um, the only caveat here is that if if the major markets take a real dump, which I think they might, we're going to get hurt temporarily in the gold space, silver space, and, you know, metal space, but uh, it won't last long. This is this is the real deal. [Music] But what do you think is going to do well during this bull market? Is it specifically the developers? Is it everybody? Is it going to go in stages? How do you see that? >> Yeah. No, it always goes in stages. You generally have the quality moves first, you know, the the the big boys, the the big royalty companies, the big gold mining companies, they tend to move first. Uh then the the smaller producers have a have a bit of a catch up and then there's a bit of a rotation. You see fund managers start to think well you know what's not moved and then the big lagards for quite a long time have been the developers trading at your 0.1 you know 2 nav we'll see those start to go to.3 point4.5 which you know on a percentage basis would give pretty significant moves but some of them have moved already. Yeah. Yeah. >> I'll tell you what. Um, I write the golden portfolio. I'm a CFA, MBA. I try to find the world's best mining opportunity. Like cream of the crop, highest grade, highest potential for success. I invest for like the 99%. The companies that are able to make money 99% of the time, a lot of people that invest in metals, they invest for the 1% of the time. you know that big silver blowoff, that big gold blowoff where the miners are un the miners they invest in are unprofitable over 99% of the time. But the big blowoff, they start going up 2x, 3x, 4x. And we're starting to see that, right? We're starting to see that in some of the silver miners, core and heckla, um, haven't moved in decades. Now they're up 200, 300, 400%. A lot of the silver mines, uh, you know, Aino, silver, Tiger, um, I've was covered primarily silver miners for 10 years. They did nothing for 10 years. They're starting to double and triple. That's a sign of caution because whenever the silver really starts getting rolling and the silver miners get rolling, it's been a top before. Um I run a regression 50-year daily regression between gold and silver. What should the silver price be based off the gold price? Um when silver really spikes up as it did in 1980 and 20 2011, silver trades at a 60% premium to its fair value based off gold. that fair value right now at a 60% premium is like $80 silver. But the thing is when silver really rips up and goes into that crescendo peak, that's also the peak of the gold market. So I'm cautiously like optimistic and I'm happy for all the silver miners, but also I'm kind of a little bit weary. It's a market. It's hard. I'm not going to sit here and pretend that I know exactly what's going to happen 6 months from now. And let me tell you one more thing. The cream of the crop development stories, Rio2, Phoenix, Alex Black, he did it with Rio Alto. He's doing it again. It's going to be in production in January, like two months from now. The project starting at 20,000 tons per day. Uh it grows to 80,000 tons per day. That's worth $2.5 billion at $3,500 gold. The stock trades for 400 mil. So even though it's gone up 2x, 3x, 4x, it's still undervalued by like 75%. And then you look at Montage, you know, a cream of the crop mining story uh that has stock has done extremely well. Their project Phoenix, they are increasing their grade through satellite pits. They are increasing, they're basically doubling the production of their of their prelim of their feasibility study and it's like not in the market. So that's like a $5 billion NAV and Montage is trading for only 2 bill. So, it's like even though they've gone up, like the value is still there. And that's all I look for. You know what I mean? Because even if gold corrects by $1,000, they're still their market cap is still lower than the NAV at $2,500 gold. And all they need to do is execute and prove out their resources, get in production. It'll rerate higher and you're still going to make money. So, I just look at the gold price as the cherry on top as the on top of the whole fundamental value creating process. What miners do to improve their projects. This is a real bull market. What do we buy? Is it developers? Is it producers? Is it more explorers? And even more specifically, is it more because the gold and silver play seem to be getting more attention naturally, but is it maybe then time for copper to be a bit of a contrarian or like Yeah. Where do we go? >> Yeah. I mean, I I would I would say it all depends on, you know, I don't want to wishy-washy, but it depends on on the individual investor, how much risk they're willing to take on. >> Depends on how I feel. You care about my feelings? >> Yeah. Well, I don't, but somebody might. Uh so so what what I would say is that if if if you're worried like if you're very riskaverse in this environment but you want beta to gold uh then stick to the producers or a gold equity ETF or do the royalty companies the big ones. But if you're willing to take on more risk then you'll go down into producers and then maybe intermediate producers and maybe even junior producers if you're look for higher beta. But then if you really want the triple baggers or whatever you call it you know then you're into the development place. If you want the 10 baggers, you know, then you go into the juniors which bring on a little bit more financing risk which has been lessened by the current market. So now the financing risk isn't as elevated as it was 12 months plus ago, you know. So these people can now raise money where 12 months ago they would have a harder time doing it. I think good development stories, I'm looking for those. And I think, you know, and exploration is going to get rewarded. So you know companies that have expiration hits that you know then looks like okay it can become a mine uh you know that will get rewarded also. So you're definitely going to have a uh pickup in you know kind of a you know where people are going to get a little bit more excited you know in that space on the exploration side. >> What do you think makes the most money? >> So far it's been pretty textbook. you know, the early movers are the big boys, you know, the Agneo Eagles and the the large cap, the royalty companies. They were really the first ones to move. You know, last about this time last year, they started to move and there was a bit of nashing of teeth that the smaller cap stuff wasn't really doing anything. And, you know, I think we're just past that phase now. And some of the sort of small to mid-tier producers are really starting to chug along. um some of the better juniors, you know, have have had big moves and and even even some of the, you know, the sort of more leveragey bull market names are starting to have a run, but I wouldn't say it's full all boats lifting just yet, you know. So, to me, it's it's that really nice part of the market, you know, where active management can still pick some winners. not seeing the the turds just wildly outperform, which is where I sometimes struggle because I just I don't like to lower my standards basically on what I want to own. I'm not going to try and pick the the the bull market names that are going to have 10x leverage with gold at 4,000 but are going to be zero at, you know, 2,000. So, for me, it's a nice it's a nice place to be to be honest. >> Yeah. Is that noticeable in the business for you as well? Is there any nuance that you can provide here where you're like, "Oh, I've started to notice this thing." And that only happens, you know, in in in the in a bull market. >> Well, 2022 and 2023 were rough. I can tell you that. You know, we had pretty much nothing. It wasn't crazy outflows, but every flow of funds was an outflow, right? There was no interest, which is typical, right? That was when everything was the cheapest, but investor interests, you know, we're all humans, you know, we we did deal with some outflows. you know that has certainly stopped and we've had a you know a decent trickle of inflows. I wouldn't say it's, you know, you look at the flows into the GDX, I'm sure you've spoken about that. You know, the main mining indices have not seen crazy bull market type flows from generalists yet. You know, it's just again, it's that kind of nice phase in the cycle where there's interest is return. There's a bit of capital coming back in, but it's not I'm not seeing crazy town, you know, just get me in at any cost, you know, shares outstanding on the ETF lines going to the moon. like it's it does feel like a very positive I'm not I'm not worried about tops and cycles or anything like that based on what I'm seeing from flow dynamics and you know some of the charts are starting to look a little vertical I will say but my gut is that we're still in this momentum phase and the we'll get more consolidations we'll get probably more time consolidations than big price corrections is my guess it's it's a nice time it's a good time to be in this industry >> what I've been doing is buying all three. I've been buying well not really producers but people with advanced stage projects that are ready to go into feasibility or you know raising money um funding things. I've been buying early stage discoveries and with, you know, drill holes and such. And I'm also putting money into people that I know that are working in good areas, uh, know what they're looking for and have the technical and financial competence to advance a project to the stage they need to advance to, but more importantly, the intelligence to drop a property if it's not working. That's the biggest problem we have in this sector, at least in the junior sector, most people don't know when to quit. >> Yeah. investors as well. Um, when I first started working with Rick Rule, it was I was surprised at how many people had, you know, 100 stocks in there and they didn't know why >> they had those stocks anymore because the idea that been sold to them died and they they didn't realize it. >> Yeah. >> So, in in in this sector, Yeah. get out if things go wrong. What what do you think ends this bull market though? And and when could that be? Why I'm asking it is because I'm thinking, is this a secular or cyclical bull market? Is this a small one within the larger cycle or is this the big one that we've all been waiting for? And and and how long does it keep going for? >> Good question. I mean, I think you do have to get to the point where you have a um you know, where they deal with debt. I mean the debt in the US is a big uh item that comes into you know the play here and if they're going to continue with a you know massive amount of issuing debt gold is highly correlated it's 93% correlated to the gold price since 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window. So you know the faster they you know issue debt the faster the debt goes up in the US you know the gold price is going to go with it. Now, if you do get a, you know, some type of of um, you know, where they come in and are able to, you know, refrain from issuing debt, then you're going to get, you know, some slowdown on the gold price. I It's pretty clear. >> Yeah. How long can that keep going on? How long can we keep going on at this pace though? Because I sure am enjoying uh, you know, the pace at which the gold price has been going up, but how long can it, you know, keep going up that quickly? >> Yeah, I mean, that's a good question. I mean, you know, so for it to double from here, that's you're talking $7,200 gold. >> I'll put that in on title. >> Yeah. So, I mean, so gold going from 18850 to 3600. I mean, you've had a double. So, now, you know, you know, are you going to see another double? You know, I mean, that's, you know, it's open for debate. It's going to depend on, you know, how much debt is created really. And I and I I don't have the answer for that. I mean, you know, right now you're starting to see some funds that haven't been in the space, you know, start to, you know, work their way into, you know, owning some gold assets, which is good to see. >> Yeah. How's it being from your perspective, maybe a bit of a nuance on the business from from specifically your perspective as um as a fund is is new money coming in or people asking you to do more riskier stuff? How Yeah. What's what's the nuance? >> Uh yeah, we are definitely seeing money come in. I mean, most of our money comes in off of the major platforms, you know, Schwab and Fidelity and um but you know, I still haven't seen where the advisor comes in. You know, it's been mostly retail um coming in. So, uh the adviser, you know, they'll come in, you know, at some point, but probably at higher levels. Um but we haven't there's not a a massive euphoria out there yet. I mean, you see a bit more euphoria around this conference because, you know, they're dealing with good margins and, you know, there's definitely some money that's being raised that hasn't been raised for, you know, the last couple of years. So, you know, I I think we'll I think we will get to the point where the um folks are, you know, chomping at the bit to get in and, you know, that's when you got to be aware. >> Yeah. And that's not now though. We still have some room to go. >> Uh that's not now. That's not to say that we're not going to have corrections along the way. So, I do think we'll have corrections along the way. So, you have to be aware of that. It could keep going for quite a long time. Uh, one thing I like is the gold price just hasn't gone parabolic. We've seen this lovely slow climb all through the year. I think that's very healthy. You know, if we can keep it going like that, I I wouldn't want to wake up one morning and the gold is up $500 an ounce. I'd be very nervous there's a bit of a crash coming on the back of that. So, as long as we keep having this nice steady growth in the gold price and silver price especially, uh, then I think I think we're in for a longer period of this nice these nice returns that people are seeing almost almost weekly. >> Well, that's a good point that leads into sort of my next question, which is is this a secular or a cyclical bull market? Uh, as in is this the big one that we've all been waiting for? Is this the serious bull market or is this something that's going to be gone in like 2 3 months from now? I don't think it'll be gone in two to three months just because of the the bigger stories that are driving this this this rise in the gold price really. Uh you know it's the the war in Russia the the Russia Ukraine is part of this. It's the US, you know, seem to be trying to devalue the dollar, you know, as fast as they can. And it's just and we saw the money get taken away from Russia especially. You know, the central banks of Asia and um Africa, parts of the Middle East are now selling treasuries and buying bullion. So, as long as that keeps going, I don't see any reason why that's going to stop tomorrow unless but you know, you never know in the world. Trying to predict the future is a little bit of a mug's game as well. Well, those are more structural movements in in geopolitics and and and global economics though that some of them have been around for a while. So, uh does that mean that the bull market is what never coming to an end or what do you think is going to bring it to an end? >> Well, they always come to an end. I don't really want to be trying to be some sort of doomsayer here and predict how or when the bull market is going to end. I would just say people should enjoy it and don't feel like the bull market is going to end tomorrow cuz they can go a lot longer than what you think. And quite often people who've been through bare markets for years at the first sign of a bull market, they seen their stocks are over 100% and they sell them all, then they miss the next 500%. Because they they jump out too soon. >> How long do you think this bull market is going to go on for and what is it going to end in? >> You know, I've been around people like, you know, Rick Rule and guys that have had many cycles of experience to know that trying to predict time frames with that sort of thing is a shorefire way to make me look like an idiot. So, you know, I have a gut feeling again this has got many years to run. You know, there will be corrections along the way. Just about every bull market has 50 50% pullbacks in it, right? And we haven't had anything close to that yet. So, there will be some some wiggle to the to the trend higher. If you twisted my arm to make a prediction, you know, I think the rest of this decade looks very interesting. You know, and I'm assuming we're just talking about gold here, but my gut feeling is, you know, some of the rest of the commodity complex is going to follow. Gold tends to lead and then, you know, then you sort of, it's not always the same, but base metals tend to be next and then energy comes in last. You know, if you look back at prior cycles, that tends to be how it works. Like so for example now I I I tend to see the best value in places like the traditional energy space you know like oil and gas you know there's there's very little interest in the in the oil and gas space right now which I like you know I'm not selling my precious metals but I'm I'm certainly buying more elsewhere right now for example just cuz I'm a conferran massochist that likes that kind of thing. That is a great point because there is a secular trend that's probably underpinned by the central bank buying and the diversification of a lot of Asian central banks away from the US dollar. So that's an underlying theme. How it impacts the equity markets is different because not all of that goes down to the equities. Uh but if the people are and then your your other trend that's sort of riding on top of that is what are real rates doing? And that's when you bring in the people that are, you know, looking at, okay, I want exposure to gold, you know, and how do I get it? Yeah. >> You know, whereas everybody, the central banks are not buying equities. >> But the producers will get a direct impact from the gold price being higher. So they'll make more money regardless. >> Yeah. So you think this is more of a a longer live thing than in that case, not not a shorter bull market. >> Yeah. Yeah, the thing is that you know the interest rate decline might be temporary once the impact of tariffs come in and then inflation comes up. But I know the current US administration wants to keep interest rates down, you know, because they're worried about the impact on servicing their ballooning debt. So they don't want to pay more because it becomes a bigger bigger proportion of their budget. So then you say, well, you got to keep interest rates down, which is good for gold, you know. But I think the other underlying secular trend is this diversification away from the US dollar in terms of a reserve currency. >> Someone recently told me, don't get in if you don't know how to get out. Um, so it might be a good idea to start thinking about when and how we might have to get out of this. So talk to me more about that. Is this a secular or a cyclical bull market and when would the right time be to sell? Uh, both in terms of maybe in terms of catalyst like what could bring this to a halt, but also in terms of timing. What what are we looking into here? There's two sides to that coin. Like I honestly believe we're in a secular shift. The data, you know, I believe in data probability. Statistics says that 99% of the time, like when we're up at these levels, like we're going to have a correction. Uh but there's severe supply demand issues uh that are going on that are that are pushing the gold price higher. You know, the US is $37 trillion in debt. Never mattered until now. $37 trillion is the most astronomical. doesn't even make sense. But but now it matters. You know what I mean? And the US has to finance the debt. No one's buying treasuries anymore. They're buying gold. Those those Treasury debt buyers are not coming back. So there's structural changes going on. But the one thing I look for like when silver really blows off like higher, uh I'm going to have a tough time hanging on to, you know, the gold miners. But, you know, I truly believe we're in a structural shift, a sec sear shift that's going to that's different from the previous like 30 40 years of history. Well, obviously I don't know. Um, but my sense is that with the chaos in the world with that ignorant guy running the United States with um, you know, the Israel bombing different people, US killing people offshore, you Ukraine, Gaza, etc. This is not looking like a good good world. Uh the dollar has been is down 12%. I don't see this changing anytime soon. It looks like it's going to get worse. In that case scenario, precious metals that do well and then we're talking about critical metals again. Um now each country or area wants to make sure they've got a secure supply of a critical metal be whatever it is. So there again there's a lot of demand for new deposits, new resources. uh from you know the US whatever you know so there's a big push on that and so I think I think we're going to and and plus all the electrification all the power and all that there that brings in copper so no I think it's going to go on for quite a while I'm back home now actually and I've been thinking a little bit about this on on the fly uh it is jet laggy thought so do keep that in mind but yeah this seems to be somewhat the conclusion right that this looks like a bull market, but it's not an all you can eat pass, right? And so be reminded also that no bull market has ever gone by without at least a couple of gut-wrenching corrections and and they will shake out the people who who don't have convictions in in what they own. And so now is a good time for a reminder to listen to team quality and grow results instead of you know calls for the moon and stuff like that because you cannot control you cannot control systematic risk on the currency or the geopolitical level right both of which aren't zero right now but you can and you should control what you own and although I'm definitely not calling a top as I'd be underqualified to do so this is a cyclical industry and bull markets always end and they usually end when people stop asking hard questions to stop paying attention to what they own. And so I intend on continuing to do both. I'm I'm keeping whatever's left of my brain on and and still working on tightening up my my process and my rules even when I feel I should be loosening them because it's very easy to get distracted when you see stuff that that you know are not legit going up or stuff that you believe to be lower quality than than your standards and you didn't buy them and you see them going up, right? It it that's not easy. I talked to Ian Castle about that in my recent interview as well. Risk is a choice. And with higher prices during bull markets, it's even more important than usual to know what you own. Instead of following people online without understanding what's happening and then ending up owning 100 positions, 99 of which you don't even remember buying and and probably don't understand, being there, done that. And it's also more important than ever really to know why you own what you own and and what catalysts you started the position for in the first place so that you know under which circumstances you're no longer going to own it. And although you shouldn't fight the bull market, which again we seem to be in one right now, you shouldn't completely rely on it and and hope for it to take care of the lack of work on your end. Also in my last interview with Ian Castle, we talked about partly talked about many things but but partly exactly about that. The number of people professing to understand the space online and the number of people pretending to be smarter than you. They will increase massively during this bull market and anonymous accounts often paid for by the issuers which you're never going to know. They will pretend to be your friendly nextdoor expert. But and a lot of a lot of examples that I can get into here, but just you should take everything you see online with a large dose of skepticism, including this video and everything else you see on this channel and Setter Plus should become your best friend and and nothing else. you you could see and hear a lot of things, but it is set plus where you you can actually go to to get decent information to hopefully and potentially help you make a better decision. That's because during bull markets, it'll become even more important to read the company filings, not their news release and their presentation and their website and the people supporting the company on Twitter or any message boards. That's all marketing, right? And as I always say, you should by the very least you should leave the read the MDNA, the financial statement, and the management information circular. At least those three documents, even if nothing else, should be read cover to cover. And and even if you think that you don't understand them, if you're like, "Oh, but I'm not an expert. I'm a tourist in this space or whatever," read them. Reading them will massively improve your understanding of this. They're just words with sentences. Even I can understand the things that are written in there, though not everything. some some of the stuff well maybe most of the stuff or the important stuff in there they become clear as you just read them and you can always message me with questions on just um email me Antonios.com or Antonio on on Twitter just look for it and or LinkedIn whatever it works and if I know what's going on I'll tell you if I don't I'll still tell you because um most of the time I have no idea what I'm doing either but point is bull markets are the perfect breeding ground for inefficiencies and that's by the way what part two of my Beaver Creek coverage is about. I went asking the companies who wanted to get in front of the camera with me how they plan on not wasting any shareholder capital during this bull market and what they'll be spending their money on because most companies out there will actually not really be successful in that. So yeah, that's about it for now though. I'm hoping to take a nap because this jet lag and it was a 24-hour commute with no sleep. Um it was not a joke. Also, I'm going from like what 8 9,000 ft of elevation back to basically sea level back home and from like 20 to 30% uh to 80 to 90% humidity back home. So, I'm kind of messed up. Um, but yeah, thanks for watching.
Is the Mining Bull Market Almost Over? I asked 5 Experts in Beaver Creek
Summary
Transcript
[Applause] Thank you for watching Resource Talks and welcome to part one of my coverage at the Precious Metal Summit here in Beaver Creek, Colorado this year, where over the last couple of days, I've single-handedly depleted at least half of their strategic peanut supply. But I've also spent some time talking to some of the smartest people in the room trying to figure out if this is the actual breakout uh and whether it is the bull market in precious metals that we've all been waiting for. Is it a breakout or is it a fake out? And if it is an actual breakout, what is the thing that is going to make me the most money over the next 12 months? And then after that, when is this bull market going to end? And what is the thing that's going to end it? That's what I was asking them. And uh that's what you're about to watch. [Music] All right, Neil, I want to talk to you about bull markets and specifically whether what we are in right now is one. Is this a breakout or is it a fake out? >> No, we're certainly in a bull market. You know, we're seeing prices I think I looked at GDX earlier today and it was up 95% year to date, which on the big gold majors, you know, just moving that much in 8 months, you certainly can't argue that that's not a bull market. So, yeah. No, this is definitely a proper bull market. You know, it feels feels a bit weird cuz we've not had one for quite a long time. So, yeah, there's lots of smiley faces at Precious Metal Summit at the moment. All right, Greg, is it a breakout or is it a fake out? >> Uh, no. It's definitely a breakout. There's there's more money coming in that's been on the sidelines. And so, that's that's the first thing you look for. And I and I think we're also seeing uh, you know, companies, you know, the enthusiasm is definitely there. And there there's definitely a pick up in you know, people's steps around here. The question is is you know, are you going to go up and then come back down? And that's usually, you know, the when everybody gets all excited, you got to be a little bit more, you know, careful about what's going on. So, I'm I'm guessing that, you know, we're going to see we'll see some up and downs. I mean, it's not a straight up move. I mean, what we are seeing is um, you know, some of these, you know, development stories and exploration, you know, that hasn't been done for a long time because there's been no money available. they're starting to get money and so they'll start to get results and then that'll get people excited. >> So there's still that to come in this cycle. I mean and this conference is, you know, it's definitely the uh exploration development. So >> yeah. Well, you weren't here last year, but you were here the year before that, I think. How is it feeling now versus then? There's definitely a like I said people have a definitely a pick up in their step you know compared to where they were you know a couple years ago and you know I I think you know for us you know you know we do invest across you know the small caps micro caps to the large caps and you know my thinking last year was really you know the money is going to be made in the producers because that's going to be the first money that comes in and that was the case but you know now the money starts to you know filter down and so you do have to pick your shots, you know. So, I mean, that's the difficult thing is picking your shots with uh, you know, good projects. >> All right, Joe, I want to talk to you about a bull market cuz this seems a bit bullish here. I mean, the you and I were just talking, but you said you're seeing a lot of people that you haven't seen in a while here at this show, but is this a real bull market or is it more of a a fake out? >> Well, I I would say if if uh like I always take it back to a cane toad. So kain toes in Australia, I mean they last longer than they do because people think uh a good dry when they try to get across the desert will kill them, but they just bury themselves and then they wait for the rain and then they come back up again. I'm seeing a lot of those kind of people here now. >> Okay. >> Yeah. >> But is is it so is it a real bull market or are they just kind? Yeah. I like there's a commodity bull market, there's an equity bull market. So the gold's been doing well for for more than a year, you know, driven by central banks and gold ETFs. Uh and it's never sort of gone down when it should have gone down when real interest rates uh were going up, the central banks kept it elevated. But for the equity to actually move, we need people looking at gold equity ETFs in North America. And that slips, you know, from the idea that real interest rates are actually directionally going down, which directionally that we're expecting a cut in September, you know, but but you know, we're seeing a lot of geopolitical risk. You know, we see what's happening in Israel and Qatar. We just saw this the shooting thing that we just talked about offline. U you know, all those sort of events impact a lot more uncertainty and then we get the safe haven demand. You know, that that sort of growth in the gold price will definitely impact the producers first and continue to impact them. But the cash they've got uh and some of these guys who want to still grow should hopefully bleed into some of these development plays here. >> I think you'd be pretty hardressed to say that this isn't a genuine breakout. I mean, we've, you know, for so long we've been consolidating and and you know, waiting for some major move. You know, we're well past those technical levels of sort of 1900 2,000 an ounce now. We've already had our breakout move that's had its first consolidation sort of that 32 to34 $3,500 level. Um, you know, technically it looks pretty textbook. You know, it looks like phase two of this gold ball market has probably broken out and is underway. You know, you never know. Um, but, you know, putting my pure technical trader hat on, it's pretty pure to be honest. It looks it looks pretty good. So I'm in the camp that this is the probably innings three or four of of this market getting into the the fund phase which is usually the momentum phase. So >> is this a breakout or fake out? >> Yeah. Uh it's a very interesting question and just today like you're looking at the RSI relative strength index. It's the highest it's ever been. You look at gold stretch from its 200 day moving average. You look at gold stretch from its uh three-year moving average. And every time it's this stretched, it's peak, peak, peak, peak, peak all the way back 20 years. All right. So, the question is, is this time different? You know, and usually at tops, people are like, this time's different and but it never really proves out to be. Uh, but there's some, you know, fundamental stuff that's underlying gold that's, you know, driving the gold price higher that's different from previous periods. I was just about to sell some stocks. So, you might as well tell me what that thing is before I do. >> Yeah, it's always good to diversify, right? You know, and take gains and, you know, buy undervalued whatever fixed income or real estate or gross stocks, you know, when gold rips up. That's the best way to manage your exposure as opposed to trying to time the market. Um, but you know, one of the things, one of the reasons the the structural supply demand thing, I love the royalties, right? You know, if you just invested in royalties over the past since 2007, you'd be up 32,000%. Like better than Buffett. But there's been three royalty acquisitions this year. Santor got taken over. Origin, that was one of my favorites, got acquired. And then Elemental. Now, this Elemental story is very interesting because Tether invested 100 mil in Elemental. Tether participated another 100 mil into the deal. Um, so they are on the board of Elemental. And then, um, Tether, right, the Tether stable coins. There's a US dollar stable coin. There is a gold stable coin. So, first of all, the dollar one, they own short-term debt instruments that pay a yield. So, the Tether dollar pays a yield, but also 5% of their portfolio, they're buying physical gold. That Tether Gold token, it's backed 100% by physical gold. Tether is buying two tons of gold per week from um various sources, but they're all keeping in Switzerland in their own vault, like outside the system. And then the CEO is has been here. He's looking at other mining opportunities. Um the CEO of Tether and the CEO of Tether believes the gold stable coin is going to be larger than the US dollar stable coin. US dollar stable coin, it's got $198 billion market cap. The gold stable coin is only two bill. And the reason why we know the reason why cuz crypto holders don't want to own dollars even if they're getting 5% because they know the dollar is going to be devalued. So that Tether's buying the equivalent of the world's largest central banks every year, like bigger than as big if not bigger than China. And if the Tether gold token really picks up, they're going to be cornering the gold's uh the world's gold supply. It's 100 tons per year. That's what China buys. And so there's there's structural things going in the supply demand equation for gold. Um where the demand is going up and the supply has not been going up. >> I think this is the real deal this time. Um, a lot of reasons we can go into, but basically, yeah, this is the real deal. Um, the only caveat here is that if if the major markets take a real dump, which I think they might, we're going to get hurt temporarily in the gold space, silver space, and, you know, metal space, but uh, it won't last long. This is this is the real deal. [Music] But what do you think is going to do well during this bull market? Is it specifically the developers? Is it everybody? Is it going to go in stages? How do you see that? >> Yeah. No, it always goes in stages. You generally have the quality moves first, you know, the the the big boys, the the big royalty companies, the big gold mining companies, they tend to move first. Uh then the the smaller producers have a have a bit of a catch up and then there's a bit of a rotation. You see fund managers start to think well you know what's not moved and then the big lagards for quite a long time have been the developers trading at your 0.1 you know 2 nav we'll see those start to go to.3 point4.5 which you know on a percentage basis would give pretty significant moves but some of them have moved already. Yeah. Yeah. >> I'll tell you what. Um, I write the golden portfolio. I'm a CFA, MBA. I try to find the world's best mining opportunity. Like cream of the crop, highest grade, highest potential for success. I invest for like the 99%. The companies that are able to make money 99% of the time, a lot of people that invest in metals, they invest for the 1% of the time. you know that big silver blowoff, that big gold blowoff where the miners are un the miners they invest in are unprofitable over 99% of the time. But the big blowoff, they start going up 2x, 3x, 4x. And we're starting to see that, right? We're starting to see that in some of the silver miners, core and heckla, um, haven't moved in decades. Now they're up 200, 300, 400%. A lot of the silver mines, uh, you know, Aino, silver, Tiger, um, I've was covered primarily silver miners for 10 years. They did nothing for 10 years. They're starting to double and triple. That's a sign of caution because whenever the silver really starts getting rolling and the silver miners get rolling, it's been a top before. Um I run a regression 50-year daily regression between gold and silver. What should the silver price be based off the gold price? Um when silver really spikes up as it did in 1980 and 20 2011, silver trades at a 60% premium to its fair value based off gold. that fair value right now at a 60% premium is like $80 silver. But the thing is when silver really rips up and goes into that crescendo peak, that's also the peak of the gold market. So I'm cautiously like optimistic and I'm happy for all the silver miners, but also I'm kind of a little bit weary. It's a market. It's hard. I'm not going to sit here and pretend that I know exactly what's going to happen 6 months from now. And let me tell you one more thing. The cream of the crop development stories, Rio2, Phoenix, Alex Black, he did it with Rio Alto. He's doing it again. It's going to be in production in January, like two months from now. The project starting at 20,000 tons per day. Uh it grows to 80,000 tons per day. That's worth $2.5 billion at $3,500 gold. The stock trades for 400 mil. So even though it's gone up 2x, 3x, 4x, it's still undervalued by like 75%. And then you look at Montage, you know, a cream of the crop mining story uh that has stock has done extremely well. Their project Phoenix, they are increasing their grade through satellite pits. They are increasing, they're basically doubling the production of their of their prelim of their feasibility study and it's like not in the market. So that's like a $5 billion NAV and Montage is trading for only 2 bill. So, it's like even though they've gone up, like the value is still there. And that's all I look for. You know what I mean? Because even if gold corrects by $1,000, they're still their market cap is still lower than the NAV at $2,500 gold. And all they need to do is execute and prove out their resources, get in production. It'll rerate higher and you're still going to make money. So, I just look at the gold price as the cherry on top as the on top of the whole fundamental value creating process. What miners do to improve their projects. This is a real bull market. What do we buy? Is it developers? Is it producers? Is it more explorers? And even more specifically, is it more because the gold and silver play seem to be getting more attention naturally, but is it maybe then time for copper to be a bit of a contrarian or like Yeah. Where do we go? >> Yeah. I mean, I I would I would say it all depends on, you know, I don't want to wishy-washy, but it depends on on the individual investor, how much risk they're willing to take on. >> Depends on how I feel. You care about my feelings? >> Yeah. Well, I don't, but somebody might. Uh so so what what I would say is that if if if you're worried like if you're very riskaverse in this environment but you want beta to gold uh then stick to the producers or a gold equity ETF or do the royalty companies the big ones. But if you're willing to take on more risk then you'll go down into producers and then maybe intermediate producers and maybe even junior producers if you're look for higher beta. But then if you really want the triple baggers or whatever you call it you know then you're into the development place. If you want the 10 baggers, you know, then you go into the juniors which bring on a little bit more financing risk which has been lessened by the current market. So now the financing risk isn't as elevated as it was 12 months plus ago, you know. So these people can now raise money where 12 months ago they would have a harder time doing it. I think good development stories, I'm looking for those. And I think, you know, and exploration is going to get rewarded. So you know companies that have expiration hits that you know then looks like okay it can become a mine uh you know that will get rewarded also. So you're definitely going to have a uh pickup in you know kind of a you know where people are going to get a little bit more excited you know in that space on the exploration side. >> What do you think makes the most money? >> So far it's been pretty textbook. you know, the early movers are the big boys, you know, the Agneo Eagles and the the large cap, the royalty companies. They were really the first ones to move. You know, last about this time last year, they started to move and there was a bit of nashing of teeth that the smaller cap stuff wasn't really doing anything. And, you know, I think we're just past that phase now. And some of the sort of small to mid-tier producers are really starting to chug along. um some of the better juniors, you know, have have had big moves and and even even some of the, you know, the sort of more leveragey bull market names are starting to have a run, but I wouldn't say it's full all boats lifting just yet, you know. So, to me, it's it's that really nice part of the market, you know, where active management can still pick some winners. not seeing the the turds just wildly outperform, which is where I sometimes struggle because I just I don't like to lower my standards basically on what I want to own. I'm not going to try and pick the the the bull market names that are going to have 10x leverage with gold at 4,000 but are going to be zero at, you know, 2,000. So, for me, it's a nice it's a nice place to be to be honest. >> Yeah. Is that noticeable in the business for you as well? Is there any nuance that you can provide here where you're like, "Oh, I've started to notice this thing." And that only happens, you know, in in in the in a bull market. >> Well, 2022 and 2023 were rough. I can tell you that. You know, we had pretty much nothing. It wasn't crazy outflows, but every flow of funds was an outflow, right? There was no interest, which is typical, right? That was when everything was the cheapest, but investor interests, you know, we're all humans, you know, we we did deal with some outflows. you know that has certainly stopped and we've had a you know a decent trickle of inflows. I wouldn't say it's, you know, you look at the flows into the GDX, I'm sure you've spoken about that. You know, the main mining indices have not seen crazy bull market type flows from generalists yet. You know, it's just again, it's that kind of nice phase in the cycle where there's interest is return. There's a bit of capital coming back in, but it's not I'm not seeing crazy town, you know, just get me in at any cost, you know, shares outstanding on the ETF lines going to the moon. like it's it does feel like a very positive I'm not I'm not worried about tops and cycles or anything like that based on what I'm seeing from flow dynamics and you know some of the charts are starting to look a little vertical I will say but my gut is that we're still in this momentum phase and the we'll get more consolidations we'll get probably more time consolidations than big price corrections is my guess it's it's a nice time it's a good time to be in this industry >> what I've been doing is buying all three. I've been buying well not really producers but people with advanced stage projects that are ready to go into feasibility or you know raising money um funding things. I've been buying early stage discoveries and with, you know, drill holes and such. And I'm also putting money into people that I know that are working in good areas, uh, know what they're looking for and have the technical and financial competence to advance a project to the stage they need to advance to, but more importantly, the intelligence to drop a property if it's not working. That's the biggest problem we have in this sector, at least in the junior sector, most people don't know when to quit. >> Yeah. investors as well. Um, when I first started working with Rick Rule, it was I was surprised at how many people had, you know, 100 stocks in there and they didn't know why >> they had those stocks anymore because the idea that been sold to them died and they they didn't realize it. >> Yeah. >> So, in in in this sector, Yeah. get out if things go wrong. What what do you think ends this bull market though? And and when could that be? Why I'm asking it is because I'm thinking, is this a secular or cyclical bull market? Is this a small one within the larger cycle or is this the big one that we've all been waiting for? And and and how long does it keep going for? >> Good question. I mean, I think you do have to get to the point where you have a um you know, where they deal with debt. I mean the debt in the US is a big uh item that comes into you know the play here and if they're going to continue with a you know massive amount of issuing debt gold is highly correlated it's 93% correlated to the gold price since 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window. So you know the faster they you know issue debt the faster the debt goes up in the US you know the gold price is going to go with it. Now, if you do get a, you know, some type of of um, you know, where they come in and are able to, you know, refrain from issuing debt, then you're going to get, you know, some slowdown on the gold price. I It's pretty clear. >> Yeah. How long can that keep going on? How long can we keep going on at this pace though? Because I sure am enjoying uh, you know, the pace at which the gold price has been going up, but how long can it, you know, keep going up that quickly? >> Yeah, I mean, that's a good question. I mean, you know, so for it to double from here, that's you're talking $7,200 gold. >> I'll put that in on title. >> Yeah. So, I mean, so gold going from 18850 to 3600. I mean, you've had a double. So, now, you know, you know, are you going to see another double? You know, I mean, that's, you know, it's open for debate. It's going to depend on, you know, how much debt is created really. And I and I I don't have the answer for that. I mean, you know, right now you're starting to see some funds that haven't been in the space, you know, start to, you know, work their way into, you know, owning some gold assets, which is good to see. >> Yeah. How's it being from your perspective, maybe a bit of a nuance on the business from from specifically your perspective as um as a fund is is new money coming in or people asking you to do more riskier stuff? How Yeah. What's what's the nuance? >> Uh yeah, we are definitely seeing money come in. I mean, most of our money comes in off of the major platforms, you know, Schwab and Fidelity and um but you know, I still haven't seen where the advisor comes in. You know, it's been mostly retail um coming in. So, uh the adviser, you know, they'll come in, you know, at some point, but probably at higher levels. Um but we haven't there's not a a massive euphoria out there yet. I mean, you see a bit more euphoria around this conference because, you know, they're dealing with good margins and, you know, there's definitely some money that's being raised that hasn't been raised for, you know, the last couple of years. So, you know, I I think we'll I think we will get to the point where the um folks are, you know, chomping at the bit to get in and, you know, that's when you got to be aware. >> Yeah. And that's not now though. We still have some room to go. >> Uh that's not now. That's not to say that we're not going to have corrections along the way. So, I do think we'll have corrections along the way. So, you have to be aware of that. It could keep going for quite a long time. Uh, one thing I like is the gold price just hasn't gone parabolic. We've seen this lovely slow climb all through the year. I think that's very healthy. You know, if we can keep it going like that, I I wouldn't want to wake up one morning and the gold is up $500 an ounce. I'd be very nervous there's a bit of a crash coming on the back of that. So, as long as we keep having this nice steady growth in the gold price and silver price especially, uh, then I think I think we're in for a longer period of this nice these nice returns that people are seeing almost almost weekly. >> Well, that's a good point that leads into sort of my next question, which is is this a secular or a cyclical bull market? Uh, as in is this the big one that we've all been waiting for? Is this the serious bull market or is this something that's going to be gone in like 2 3 months from now? I don't think it'll be gone in two to three months just because of the the bigger stories that are driving this this this rise in the gold price really. Uh you know it's the the war in Russia the the Russia Ukraine is part of this. It's the US, you know, seem to be trying to devalue the dollar, you know, as fast as they can. And it's just and we saw the money get taken away from Russia especially. You know, the central banks of Asia and um Africa, parts of the Middle East are now selling treasuries and buying bullion. So, as long as that keeps going, I don't see any reason why that's going to stop tomorrow unless but you know, you never know in the world. Trying to predict the future is a little bit of a mug's game as well. Well, those are more structural movements in in geopolitics and and and global economics though that some of them have been around for a while. So, uh does that mean that the bull market is what never coming to an end or what do you think is going to bring it to an end? >> Well, they always come to an end. I don't really want to be trying to be some sort of doomsayer here and predict how or when the bull market is going to end. I would just say people should enjoy it and don't feel like the bull market is going to end tomorrow cuz they can go a lot longer than what you think. And quite often people who've been through bare markets for years at the first sign of a bull market, they seen their stocks are over 100% and they sell them all, then they miss the next 500%. Because they they jump out too soon. >> How long do you think this bull market is going to go on for and what is it going to end in? >> You know, I've been around people like, you know, Rick Rule and guys that have had many cycles of experience to know that trying to predict time frames with that sort of thing is a shorefire way to make me look like an idiot. So, you know, I have a gut feeling again this has got many years to run. You know, there will be corrections along the way. Just about every bull market has 50 50% pullbacks in it, right? And we haven't had anything close to that yet. So, there will be some some wiggle to the to the trend higher. If you twisted my arm to make a prediction, you know, I think the rest of this decade looks very interesting. You know, and I'm assuming we're just talking about gold here, but my gut feeling is, you know, some of the rest of the commodity complex is going to follow. Gold tends to lead and then, you know, then you sort of, it's not always the same, but base metals tend to be next and then energy comes in last. You know, if you look back at prior cycles, that tends to be how it works. Like so for example now I I I tend to see the best value in places like the traditional energy space you know like oil and gas you know there's there's very little interest in the in the oil and gas space right now which I like you know I'm not selling my precious metals but I'm I'm certainly buying more elsewhere right now for example just cuz I'm a conferran massochist that likes that kind of thing. That is a great point because there is a secular trend that's probably underpinned by the central bank buying and the diversification of a lot of Asian central banks away from the US dollar. So that's an underlying theme. How it impacts the equity markets is different because not all of that goes down to the equities. Uh but if the people are and then your your other trend that's sort of riding on top of that is what are real rates doing? And that's when you bring in the people that are, you know, looking at, okay, I want exposure to gold, you know, and how do I get it? Yeah. >> You know, whereas everybody, the central banks are not buying equities. >> But the producers will get a direct impact from the gold price being higher. So they'll make more money regardless. >> Yeah. So you think this is more of a a longer live thing than in that case, not not a shorter bull market. >> Yeah. Yeah, the thing is that you know the interest rate decline might be temporary once the impact of tariffs come in and then inflation comes up. But I know the current US administration wants to keep interest rates down, you know, because they're worried about the impact on servicing their ballooning debt. So they don't want to pay more because it becomes a bigger bigger proportion of their budget. So then you say, well, you got to keep interest rates down, which is good for gold, you know. But I think the other underlying secular trend is this diversification away from the US dollar in terms of a reserve currency. >> Someone recently told me, don't get in if you don't know how to get out. Um, so it might be a good idea to start thinking about when and how we might have to get out of this. So talk to me more about that. Is this a secular or a cyclical bull market and when would the right time be to sell? Uh, both in terms of maybe in terms of catalyst like what could bring this to a halt, but also in terms of timing. What what are we looking into here? There's two sides to that coin. Like I honestly believe we're in a secular shift. The data, you know, I believe in data probability. Statistics says that 99% of the time, like when we're up at these levels, like we're going to have a correction. Uh but there's severe supply demand issues uh that are going on that are that are pushing the gold price higher. You know, the US is $37 trillion in debt. Never mattered until now. $37 trillion is the most astronomical. doesn't even make sense. But but now it matters. You know what I mean? And the US has to finance the debt. No one's buying treasuries anymore. They're buying gold. Those those Treasury debt buyers are not coming back. So there's structural changes going on. But the one thing I look for like when silver really blows off like higher, uh I'm going to have a tough time hanging on to, you know, the gold miners. But, you know, I truly believe we're in a structural shift, a sec sear shift that's going to that's different from the previous like 30 40 years of history. Well, obviously I don't know. Um, but my sense is that with the chaos in the world with that ignorant guy running the United States with um, you know, the Israel bombing different people, US killing people offshore, you Ukraine, Gaza, etc. This is not looking like a good good world. Uh the dollar has been is down 12%. I don't see this changing anytime soon. It looks like it's going to get worse. In that case scenario, precious metals that do well and then we're talking about critical metals again. Um now each country or area wants to make sure they've got a secure supply of a critical metal be whatever it is. So there again there's a lot of demand for new deposits, new resources. uh from you know the US whatever you know so there's a big push on that and so I think I think we're going to and and plus all the electrification all the power and all that there that brings in copper so no I think it's going to go on for quite a while I'm back home now actually and I've been thinking a little bit about this on on the fly uh it is jet laggy thought so do keep that in mind but yeah this seems to be somewhat the conclusion right that this looks like a bull market, but it's not an all you can eat pass, right? And so be reminded also that no bull market has ever gone by without at least a couple of gut-wrenching corrections and and they will shake out the people who who don't have convictions in in what they own. And so now is a good time for a reminder to listen to team quality and grow results instead of you know calls for the moon and stuff like that because you cannot control you cannot control systematic risk on the currency or the geopolitical level right both of which aren't zero right now but you can and you should control what you own and although I'm definitely not calling a top as I'd be underqualified to do so this is a cyclical industry and bull markets always end and they usually end when people stop asking hard questions to stop paying attention to what they own. And so I intend on continuing to do both. I'm I'm keeping whatever's left of my brain on and and still working on tightening up my my process and my rules even when I feel I should be loosening them because it's very easy to get distracted when you see stuff that that you know are not legit going up or stuff that you believe to be lower quality than than your standards and you didn't buy them and you see them going up, right? It it that's not easy. I talked to Ian Castle about that in my recent interview as well. Risk is a choice. And with higher prices during bull markets, it's even more important than usual to know what you own. Instead of following people online without understanding what's happening and then ending up owning 100 positions, 99 of which you don't even remember buying and and probably don't understand, being there, done that. And it's also more important than ever really to know why you own what you own and and what catalysts you started the position for in the first place so that you know under which circumstances you're no longer going to own it. And although you shouldn't fight the bull market, which again we seem to be in one right now, you shouldn't completely rely on it and and hope for it to take care of the lack of work on your end. Also in my last interview with Ian Castle, we talked about partly talked about many things but but partly exactly about that. The number of people professing to understand the space online and the number of people pretending to be smarter than you. They will increase massively during this bull market and anonymous accounts often paid for by the issuers which you're never going to know. They will pretend to be your friendly nextdoor expert. But and a lot of a lot of examples that I can get into here, but just you should take everything you see online with a large dose of skepticism, including this video and everything else you see on this channel and Setter Plus should become your best friend and and nothing else. you you could see and hear a lot of things, but it is set plus where you you can actually go to to get decent information to hopefully and potentially help you make a better decision. That's because during bull markets, it'll become even more important to read the company filings, not their news release and their presentation and their website and the people supporting the company on Twitter or any message boards. That's all marketing, right? And as I always say, you should by the very least you should leave the read the MDNA, the financial statement, and the management information circular. At least those three documents, even if nothing else, should be read cover to cover. And and even if you think that you don't understand them, if you're like, "Oh, but I'm not an expert. I'm a tourist in this space or whatever," read them. Reading them will massively improve your understanding of this. They're just words with sentences. Even I can understand the things that are written in there, though not everything. some some of the stuff well maybe most of the stuff or the important stuff in there they become clear as you just read them and you can always message me with questions on just um email me Antonios.com or Antonio on on Twitter just look for it and or LinkedIn whatever it works and if I know what's going on I'll tell you if I don't I'll still tell you because um most of the time I have no idea what I'm doing either but point is bull markets are the perfect breeding ground for inefficiencies and that's by the way what part two of my Beaver Creek coverage is about. I went asking the companies who wanted to get in front of the camera with me how they plan on not wasting any shareholder capital during this bull market and what they'll be spending their money on because most companies out there will actually not really be successful in that. So yeah, that's about it for now though. I'm hoping to take a nap because this jet lag and it was a 24-hour commute with no sleep. Um it was not a joke. Also, I'm going from like what 8 9,000 ft of elevation back to basically sea level back home and from like 20 to 30% uh to 80 to 90% humidity back home. So, I'm kind of messed up. Um, but yeah, thanks for watching.