It Feels Like 1999 | Animal Spirits 433

Summary

• Market Outlook: The podcast discusses the current market environment, comparing it to the late 1990s, with Paul Tudor Jones suggesting we might be heading towards a "blowoff top" similar to the 1999 tech bubble.
• AI and Tech Investments: OpenAI's partnership with AMD and continued reliance on Nvidia highlight the growing demand for computing power, with AI being described as the biggest market story of the decade.
• Investment Strategies: Paul Tudor Jones emphasizes the importance of the 200-day moving average in his investment philosophy, suggesting that market conditions above this average are favorable.
• Market Dynamics: The podcast notes the unusual nature of the current market, with US equity gains trailing the rest of the world and a significant focus on AI and tech investments driving GDP growth.
• Stock Market Trends: Discussion on the dominance of a few large tech companies in the S&P 500 and the historical turnover of top market names, with skepticism about whether current tech giants will maintain their positions.
• Housing Market: The housing market is showing signs of normalization, with increased inventory in several metro areas, though high mortgage rates continue to impact buyer activity.
• Private Markets: Concerns are raised about the private credit market, with some bankruptcies in the auto sector potentially signaling broader issues, though skepticism remains about a widespread crisis.
• Social Media and Society: The podcast touches on the negative impact of social media on mental health and the decline in time spent on these platforms, suggesting a shift in user behavior.

Transcript

Today's show is brought to you by our sponsors at Betterment Advisor Solutions. If you happen to be thinking, "There's got to be a better way to grow my RAIA," you're not alone. >> With Betterment Advisor Solutions, we do the heavy lifting so you can focus on what matters most, your clients. From improved service that makes asset transition smoother to fast, paper-free onboarding that delights clients on day one. >> We've built a digital first platform designed to streamline your operations and make life easier. Now, if you're thinking, "Wow, they take the paper out of paperwork." You'd be right. Grow your RAA your way with Betterment Advisor Solutions. Learn more at betterment.com/advisors. Investing involves risk. Performance not guaranteed. >> Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. I am on the airplane this morning taking off. Got CNBC on it in on the seat in front of me. >> Boom. unmute. >> Yeah, I was I was uh I was working. >> I'm kidding. >> Uh Sam and uh big headline Open AI uh investing in AMD. I was about to make a chart. I couldn't think of anything. So, Open AI doing some sort of deal with AMD. Who cares what it is? Sam Alman tweeted excite excited to partner with AMD to use their chips to serve our users. This is all incremental to work to our work with Nvidia and we plan to increase our Nvidia purchase over time. The world needs much more compute. So AMD, Nvidia, you're still good. Stock is up 25% of the announcement. I don't know what's up right now. $280 billion company just adding 50 billion, whatever the number is. >> Everyone in the >> like that. Let's go. Let's go. It's bubble time. Let's do it. Let's do it. The the funny thing about this whole thing is just that the it feels like there's not I don't I don't know if I guess you call it an oligopoly. Like it feels like these they have everything cornered, but they're all doing it together and being like, "Hey, we're inclusive. You come too. Take you can take a little table scraps. Sure. Yeah. You want some too?" "Yeah, you too. Let's do it." >> Intel. Where's Micron? They They feel left out. Hey, uh so last week after our show, I I I thought to myself, you know what? We're going to do a a hyperscaler free episode. Let's just It's enough. >> Come on. >> It's enough already. >> It's impossible. So, you you have this in here. I saw it, too. I I had CNBC on. I have my I had my three screens in my office. I had CBC on one and Paul Tudtor Jones is on this morning. So, I I turned it on and uh credit to Andy Ross Sorcin because he said cuz Paul Tudtor Jones said, "Listen, it feels like 99." And he said, I think he essentially said like this is he said this is potentially more explosive than 1999. He was saying like, "Listen, we're in for a blowoff top here." And Andrew L. Sorcin pulled up some old quotes of his like last time you were here you were talking about the end of the world and you were talking about recessions and and Paul Jones like kind of smiled and he goes, "Yeah, you know, >> but so I I I credited him for saying this cuz he's he's been wrong like every hedge fun person." But he said, "Listen, a ton." >> Hang on, hang on, hang on. He's been wrong like everybody. You don't have to say that hedge fun who who's been right. >> Well, true. But so it was kind of funny. And he said, "Listen, I've been wrong a lot." Okay, everyone's wrong. and he said, "But my whole investing philosophy boils down to the 200 day moving average." >> Yeah, he's the 200 day moving average. >> Wrong. I'm sure he's made gazillions of dollars. So, >> he's not one of those pontificators that just bloates and doesn't actually invest. >> Yeah. I I think he's more of a quantitative investor that has that has qualitative discussions sometimes. And he said, "I use the 200 day moving average. When it's above the 200 day, good things happen. When it's below the 200 day, bad things can happen. And last time I was here, it was below the 200 day. So, I was thinking bad things are going to happen." >> Fair enough. >> And then it did. So, so I I thought it was actually a pretty good back and forth. But so is this the point that we've reached is is the the next line of predictions is blowoff top. >> All right. So I I mentioned that I I genuinely thought we were going to do an AI free episode. It's just like tiresome at this point. We've got 55 pages in the doc, so apologies in advance. Is this I I was thinking about this. Is this this is the biggest market story of the last decade, right? Like there's been there's been pockets of time where all we're talking about is inflation. All we're talking about is interest rates. >> Oh, co was >> hang on hang on. Wait, let me finish. All we're talking about is co but that was within the context of like a crisis. So absent crisis moments over the last 15 years. This is the single biggest market story and there's not there's there's there's nothing even close. >> This is one of the biggest market stories that we will ever have. I think >> correct. This is this is going in the textbooks. All right. Michael Seymble say this is like this is the stock market bet of the century. >> Yeah, >> this is not this is not like the biggest story of a decade. This is the potentially the biggest story that it's crazy to say, but it's it seems true. >> All right, here's where I'm at. It it feels like everybody is aligned. Okay, we are entering the next phase of a blowoff top. Maybe it lasts a year, maybe lasts two years. So, everyone's bullish in the short term, but everybody knows it's going to end badly. There's no way it's going to play out like that. It's just it's there's no way, right? >> No. That that but that is the perfect hedge to make a prediction. The stock market is going to go up, but then it's going to fall. That how can you be wrong in that scenario? You can't >> on Monday. >> Because if it falls, you go, I guess I guess I was just a little early. I was, you know, >> on Monday, uh, a week ago, I sent you and Josh an image that I created from Chat GBT where it's everybody watching a bubble inflate and it really feels like this is the moment, right? Like more so, >> how come how come every person in this AI generated picture is exactly the same? Like the women have the same face as the men? >> I don't know. They all have the same. Although, if you look back a few, it's it's a weird image. But Derek Thompson this week wrote an article. this is how the AI bubble will pop. He had an interview with Paul Katrosski and it's not just Derek. I mean it's it's it's quite literally everybody. >> I made the point this morning on Twitter there is a bubble in financial news stories using pictures of bubbles. Look at all the p every picture now has a picture of a bubble in it. >> Yeah, >> that's how you have to start the article. Um I I just think so I I had so chart kid Matt did this thing where he he showed that the stock market bottoms nine months on average before earnings do in a bare market right so the stock market is for looking in a bare market so I said okay that's a that's great what about the top is the can the stock market call the the peak in earnings before it happens and we looked at it and it cannot the stock market look at this chart the very first one here the stock market and earnings basically fall together. It's within It's within like a few days. So So >> the stock >> that makes that makes sense like like from a human behavior point of view cuz nobody wants to leave the party early. >> Yes. But so the the thing is no one is going to be able to predict this this coming fall. Not even the stock market. It's going to happen like when it happens. And I I agree with you. It it it seems almost too easy to say, "Well, this is a bubble and it's going to pop like all the other ones there." that there's no way it's the market is never that easy. >> May I mean maybe, but it seems it seems hard to believe. >> Yes. >> Did you make this gift of Derrick Henry standing next to Mark Ingram? >> Oh, yeah. You did a meme. Why are they doing it? It's one of my favorite meme templates. >> That's good. >> And I I It doesn't It just seems like AI is subsuming everything else with the economy and with the stock market that you keep hearing about the slowing labor market, but guess what? The growth for this coming quarter is still projected to be almost 4%. So yes, people keep worrying about the labor market slowing it. The stock market doesn't care. The economy doesn't care. When does it matter? Stalwart Joe Mr. Weisenthal tweeted according to Challenger, the pace of hiring has fallen off the cliff. Weakest September for job creation since 2011. And it is a uh push and pull as uh as the pundits say. I don't know man. It'll matter when it matters. I I have nothing like I have no insight here. I don't think I think that's the thing. Like nobody does. Let's just be honest. We're all making this up. We're all guessing the best we can. >> Yeah, that's one of the things that makes these kind of mania fun because no one has a clue when it'll end. Chart from JP Morgan estimates the five major AI hyperscalers will spend a combined 1.2 trillion from o from 25 through 27. How could you be bearish? I mean you could say this is stupid and this will end badly. Sure. I think everyone's saying that. But uh Martin Skrey is shorting I believe some of the quantum computing stocks which by all accounts there's nothing there. Um >> what are we taking investment advice from this guy now? >> Well just hear me out. Um the Regetti CEO was >> that's they need to change their name. It sounds like a pasta company. >> I got to be honest. I don't even I have no isetti quantum computing. I really I genuinely don't know. Sorry. >> Yeah, I think so, but I'd be to change their name. >> So, he he said uh he was talking to Yahoo Finance and he said because of the hype that is going on in the quantum computing space and some erroneous statements are being made, including by people in our industry, we have to tamp down some expectations. Uh I have to tell investors that it's still not the time to talk about sales. Not the time to talk about sales. there's there's no revenue and sales growth because we are still very much in the technology development mode. So, it's essentially an an experiment. We have to get the technology perfected before we can start seeing real material difference in sales. Uh and guess what? It doesn't matter. Stocks going straight up. So, uh Schrelli is is short. Obviously, a lot of people are making money on the long side. I think here's where I'm at with like shorts and longs in this in in one corner of the of the mania that we're that we're experiencing. Nobody comes out alive. Shorts are going to get taken out just because that's just how the market got to work. They're not going to let you make money. You're going to get margin called. It's just not going to be enough and then it'll fall 90%. >> Well, did you read the Jerry Newman piece at at Colossus a week ago basically said no one's going to make money in the AI bubble, right? I I agree with like trying to pick through sort through the winners and losers at this point beyond >> I I think I think Citadel will make money, >> right? Yes. the the timing of the timing and the magnitude that's that gets you every time. I listen this it's a human experiment though that we're running here, right? That's the that's the that's what makes the stock market so endlessly fascinating to me is that it's like a laboratory for human emotions and how far can we push them? How far can they can they really go? >> We're going to find out. Um yeah so JP Morg this from JP Morgan via Bridgewater US real GDP growth contribution from tech from tech capex so it's showing that versus contribution from the rest of the economy and somebody tweeted this is alarming almost 40% of the US real GDP growth last quarter was driven by tech capex aggreate capex can't keep climbing like this in the absence of real profits derived from AI investments and somebody replied this is service this is a surface level Most AI capex is spending against current demand with revenue coming in immediately. Let's dig a little deeper. Both fair points. Um but the the unknown of where this goes is the Yeah, you're right, Ben. That's what makes it fun. >> The demand is coming from Oracle, which is coming from OpenAI, which is coming from Nvidia, which is coming from Oracle, which is coming from Open AI, which is coming from Nvidia. Uh, >> did didn't we say at the end of uh August that September was historically one of the weakest months of the year? >> You know, I tell you what, I don't know how the seasonality stuff works. Uh, like what's a historically good month or bad month? You tell me. >> Well, you you wouldn't. I'll tell you. September historically is not great. We uh 3.5% >> in 2025. Fourth best since fourth best September since uh since the turn of the century. >> Okay. >> Not bad. >> Tell you seasonality doesn't do much for me. >> Yeah, I can take >> not going to lie. >> Um All right. Todd Zone has a chart showing a table the annual contribution for the S&P of the 10 largest stocks during positive years and 2021 2020. >> Wow, this is this is very surprising. I don't remember talking about this in >> 2023 and 2025 are all >> It is funny that 99 2007 which are the tops but I don't remember anyone talking about this in 2007 that it was 80% of the total almost >> well this this is before you had a podcast. >> True. But obviously you look at these and you go 99 was a top 20 2007 was a top. 2021 was a top. And then there's other years you can look at and say well that those ones didn't matter. Um, all right. Here's a chart that was making the rounds this weekend. The forward PE of the S&P cap weighted versus equal weight. And needless to say, maybe not needless to say, they genu generally track each other pretty closely. There was a huge disconnect during the.com bubble and there's a pretty big disconnect today. >> Yeah. Not nearly as wide as the.com bubble though, obviously. Okay, so long at short S&P long equal weight. >> Sure, maybe. But I feel like the people that are posting the people that are posting this chart have literally been saying the same thing since 2015. >> Yeah, they were pounding the table on cape ratio back then. Okay, awesome new chart from JP Morgan. They had their new guide to the markets. I think I get an email every time that a new one comes in. And this chart has never This chart has never been here before. They look at the top 10 names going back to 1985 every 10 years. Uh pretty sure JP Morgan stole this idea from me because I did it before. Not to brag. I'm kidding. Uh but they show which ones have stayed over time. And you can see there's a total turnover from 85. There's a few of them that hung on for a little bit, right? IBM hung on there for a little bit. GE hung on. Exon. And there's there's no names that were in the top 10 and 95 that are still there today. So there's been a ton of turnover between now and then. And Microsoft is the only one that was there in n in 2005. So here's the thing though. I feel like since 2017ish when these tech companies really started to take off and their dominance was being becoming more wellknown, the one thing people would say is listen just wait till the government steps in and breaks these companies up. I think we've learned the government is literally they can't do that or they don't want to or it's never going to happen. These companies are too big and powerful for the government ever to step in and break them up. And I think that at one time seemed like a real risk. I just can't imagine that happening today. Can you see that? >> No. >> Yeah. You've got to sell off, you know, YouTube. You've got to sell off cloud services. I It just they're too big and powerful. So, it's going to be their their hubris or the next in 2035 it's going to be a bunch of robotics companies or something something else that comes up to take their place, but it's not going to be because the government steps in to like take away their power. Obviously, >> growing. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that there's going to be a lot of turnover just because there has historically. >> Okay. I'm I'm going with history here. You don't think that there's going to be some like robotics companies are going to step in and new AI companies and that's the way that this stuff works >> historically. >> Some of these companies are going to trip and fall. That's gonna that's okay. >> Sure. Listen, I'm not really different. >> I'm not pounding the table, but I would say like even money, how long are we talking about? We talking about the 20 35. >> I think that the historical turnover rate is something like 30 to 40%. So, three or four names. >> I would say the historical turnover rate >> is going to be way less today, way less in the future than it was historically. I would I would feel pretty comfortable saying that. >> I think we could. So, we'll talk about this in 2035 in year 17 of our podcast, but I still think that two or three of these names are going to trip and fall and something else is going to come or something else is going to come take their place. >> Oh, well, two two out of 10 is not I mean, that's nothing. >> Two to three. That's I said that's like historically 30% or so is average. >> All right. Uh, great stuff from Rob Anderson. NASDAQ 100 has not seen a 3% correction for 115 days. It's the seventh longest streak going back to 1971. >> So since April essentially then >> you know for all the bubble talk I thought this was interesting. US equity gains trailed the rest of the world this Bloomberg by the most since 2009. How do you explain this? There's a lot of really weird stuff going. I keep saying if this is a bubble, it's the weirdest one ever. Gold hits new highs every day. It seems like Bitcoin hit new highs. It's just everything. >> International stocks, you saw Japan is ripping this morning. Yuri Timber tweeted, "Strong technicals are confirming the bullish fundamentals. Finally, non- US equities have a reason to immune revert after being left dead for over a decade." He's got another chart showing like the payout ratio and how these companies are taking a page out of our book. It's global, man. It's It's not just us. >> If you're not making money this year, you should just retire for being an investor. Like, hand the keys over, turn them in, put it all in index funds or something else. If you can't make money this year, you're never going to make money. >> That's true. All right. What's the simul? >> All right. Let me hear what you think here. Seems like other famous bubbles are accompanied by an anecdote of someone completely ignorant of the investment making an investment. Uh Darwin with railroads. Joe Kennedy allegedly said when the shoe shiner asked about the market, you throw in the towel. What feels different about the AI is that there really hasn't doesn't seem to be a lot of stories about people with zero idea about AI or the market just running and throwing life savings at AI names. People investing in it are doing so in a fairly rational manner through indexing or for the most part ETFs. Thoughts? >> Yeah, I re I reject this dramatically. >> Dramatically. I think I I agree with it like 70 I'm like 75% of the way there. this it doesn't feel like this is 99 where people are quitting their jobs to day trade or quitting their jobs because they're gonna um turn over houses, right? And I'm gonna I'm gonna buy and sell houses and I'm going to fix them up a little bit and resell them. Those are the kind of things are happening in in those bubbles. It doesn't feel like we have that kind of stuff happening today. The anecdotes of >> All right, >> I will give him that point. >> Let me present the counterpoint. Uh, Hamptonism at Hamptonism tweeted, "I'm convinced anyone with any level of education can turn a 100K to half a million in 12 months. Buco Capital retweeted it and said, "We're close to the top. It's okay to keep dancing, but recognize where we are." Here's another one. Oh, this is from Marley. Let me uh let me share my screen for a sec. First of all, this is a this is a fake. I guess it's from Sora, which we'll talk about in a sec. >> Mhm. >> Here we go. I have a dream that all overvalued stocks will collapse and the market will be efficient once again. >> Not bad, right? >> Okay. Um, so here's >> So, wait, hold on. Hold on. I'm not done. >> Um, all right. Here's another one. Um, somebody I guess I don't know if this is Reddit. Looks like Reddit. After two months of thinking, I decided to quit my job today. They show their portfolio. Um, feels good, but I was wrong. >> Tik Tok investors tweeted, "Everyone is a genius and bull market." This person talks about their their strategy and and trading. We've got 19, this bespoke. We've got 19 stocks up 400% since Liberation Day low. Um, and let's see, all but four of them are money losing companies. Cipher Mining, I don't know, Kodiak Sciences, Alo, we've talked about, Tango Therapy, a bunch of other names I've never heard of. Um, we've got this is from uh Deutsche Bank. >> I've never heard of any of these companies before. >> Okay. Um, >> I love I love how they have the P ratio and like 90% of them are negative. >> Yeah. >> Right. They don't have a profit. That means they don't have a profit. >> So, going to the retail thing that we've been talking about, how these people are just killing it. Uh, Sherwood had a chart showing the Goldman stock retail index is off like 19 straight days. I what I forget what number is, but it's it's madness. All right. All right. So, Deutscheck has this wonderful chart showing the performance of the most shorted stocks going vertical and the stocks with the most net call volume going vertical. And let's just say that these are both retail names. You've got the Defiance uh company launching a bunch of 3x uh uh ETFs. Modest Proposal tweeted factor effectiveness the recent 12 months comparison to long-term performance. We're looking at the best versus worst quintiles. So, I guess looks like this long short uh what's number one? High nine price month momentum, high 12-month price momentum, high R&D to sales, high beta, and the worst is all like uh you know, value stocks. Uh Mike Zakardi tweeted, "The last six months have been all about low quality. The junkier the better. Auger Infinity has a chart which he's showing the S&P 500 performance since the lows versus the nonprofitable tech stocks. nonprofitable tech is up 105% since the lows. Um the regetti stuff that I spoke about earlier. So Ben, it's happening. Uh people are going absolutely bananas for stocks. So >> when I was when I was in my manage selection days, >> those portfolio managers would definitely have said, "Listen, this is a junk stock rally. We're not going to chase the junk. We're high quality balance sheets, low debt." >> It is. It is. >> Okay. So, here's the other here's the other place where I think that there is a I don't I hate calling everything a bubble because at that a certain point, you know how all the Gen Z kids, they they say that everyone is a goat, you know, like, hey, this person at my company, they're a goat. Like, you can't call everyone a goat. Not everyone's the greatest of all time. Okay, >> stop using stop using goat so much, young people. Like, it's reserved for like one or two people in your life. That's it. So, I don't want to call this a bubble, but it's we're we're at all-time highs and we've never been higher. There are so many rich people now and you and I are in a very I think you and I are in kind of a an interesting way to view this because not only through our business um but because of all the people we hear from that there there there's never been so many rich people as there are right now. And it's funny because the the conversations that I'm having with really rich people in our day job, the biggest problem they have is what do I do with these huge capital gains I'm sitting on? That's the problem people are trying to solve for. And that's obviously a bull market problem and phenomenon, but I just think that there's just there's never been more rich people. And I think that explains >> so much of what's going on. >> Well, let me ask you this. Let me ask you this. >> The the the B- word, the bubble word stocks, these stocks that we've been discussing, the ones, I mean, Meta and Nvidia fell 70% in 2022. Amazon and and Google got cut in half. I don't remember a lot of people saying, "See, the bubble is over. The bubble just popped." My point is, what would have to happen for us to say, "You see, it was a bubble." Because it's not these stocks falling 40% and getting back to where they were in 2023. That's that's proof of nothing. That's proof, all right, yeah, these stocks were overvalued. A bubble bursting means Nvidia's got to go to a trillion. it would or >> the S&P would have to fall 40% and the NASDAQ 100 would have to fall 50. I think that's to me that's okay. It was a bubble. >> So if the NASDAQ doesn't fall 50, get out of here. The NASDAQ could fall 35%. Means nothing. It fell 35% in the first quarter, didn't it? >> And in 2020 and in 2022. >> Yeah, that's uh that's fair. I >> Yeah. I don't No, I don't know where the number is. Is 50% at a minimum or or don't say the word bubble. >> I think that's a fair definition. >> At a minimum, >> if handy put your gambling hat on, what's what will the odds of a 50% crash be in the NASDAQ 100 in the next 24 months? 24 to 36 months? >> If if you said 24, what would make me bet on a 50% crash over the next 24 months? >> I don't know, man. really high plus odds >> plus 700. How about this? >> I would I would need way higher odds than that. >> All right. For for you to put I don't know 10 grand 10 to one. >> I Yeah, at least. >> Actually, you know what? If anyone's willing to give me 10 to one odds, I would take it. That's a good payout. >> Okay. >> If you extend it to like 48 months, then I would say seven to one. I 50% is is a lot. And now it it could obviously it could happen. Of course, it could. Mhm. Yeah. But but what is the level we're going from to your point and what does it bring you back to? >> Well, that's the other part of it is like listen where where's the S&P? Is it 60? Ooh. Is it 60? What is it? 6700. Okay. >> Mhm. >> So, if the S&P goes to 8,500 and then goes back to down to 6,000, who cares? >> Sam Ro had a great point the other day on Twitter that the Dow bottomed at like 6,700 in the great financial crisis. Now it's at 46,000 almost 47,000 and now the S&P is at 6,700. Round numbers. >> This is a good thing. Goes to the retail stuff that we're talking about, but you love to see this. The value of equities held by the bottom 50%. And this is all Robin Hood. So credit to them. This started to go vertical in 2020. So in 2000 it was 100%. >> This is also the pandemic though. This was the pandemic. People had >> sure >> people had disposable income for the first time. A lot of people for the first time in a long time. But the bottom 50% the value of equities had gone nowhere from 2000 to 2020. So 20 years not inflation adjusted I don't think. Uh and now it's 600 billion. Now there's a there's a denominator thing in here like I don't know how many people this is but nevertheless this is still a good thing. >> No the jump here was so high you can't say that this is just but here's the thing to me 9% inflation was worth this. We don't get we don't get this without 9% inflation. All right. That's >> Was it worth it? >> I don't I have to >> because it was all the money we sent to people that that's why this happened. >> Yeah. I don't know. That's a That's a big That's >> I think that's a reasonable trade-off as far as I'm concerned. >> Let's add one more thing to your uh bubble thing. This is from the Wall Street Journal. Yield premiums, corporates over treasuries, is at a 27year low, the spread. >> Wow. >> Uh and the the quote from the article was it's kind of the old spreads are tight, but yields are all right. So yields are high so people don't care. They're buying corporate bonds hand over fist. >> So there's >> not requiring much of a spread. >> So same with junk too. So there was there was another journal article talking about this and Howard Mark said and this is definitely true. Uh just it just is the worst loans are made at the best of times. >> Yeah, that makes sense, right? Um okay. I want to So I feel like that to me we're getting a there's starting to get a ground swell of inequality stuff. I feel like the inequality chatter starting is >> well it's growing. So here's here's a question for you. >> So because I looked at the Atlanta Fed now and again it's like 4% for this quarter. They're not allseeing all knowing whatever. But let's say we get a slowing labor market right um and it doesn't really impact the economy. People start losing their jobs but the top 10% controls 50% of consumption. I think the top 40% controls 60 to 70% of consumption. AI makes businesses more efficient. Okay. So parts of the economy are slowing but the economy or the labor market are slowing but the economy still does fine >> mainly because you mean like what's happening literally right now? >> Yes. Let's say this continues. Is your strategy to buy torches and pitchforks? Because look at this. >> Stop. I don't want to I don't want I don't I don't want to go there. >> Listen, I'm living in the world as it is, not as I would love it to be. >> Wait, hang on. Hang on, hang on, hang on. Um, this idea, >> look at this next chart. >> Okay, >> look at this next chart. America, this is from Charter today. America's top 1% holds almost as much wealth as the bottom 90%. The bottom 90% holds 33% of wealth. The top 1% owns 31. It was >> forget about the top in the forget forget about the top 1%. This is it's Elon and Larry Ellison and Bill Gates and Steve Balmer and Jeff Bezos. Like this idea that it's only the billionaires and everybody else is screwed. I'm sorry. I just I reject that idea. Listen to what the companies are saying about their consumer. They have no reason to not tell the truth. I feel like we're beating this dead horse. >> No, I agree. But listen, if listen, if you are boxed out of buying a house right now and you live in a very expensive city and inflation feels higher and and I don't know what percentage of the population, let's let's say 33% of the population because 62% of people own stocks, the home ownership rate in this country is 65%. So let's say a third of people are boxed out and some of them do that by choice. So let's say it's really 20% of people are boxed out of the stock market and the housing market. Who do you think they're going to blame for their plight? >> Listen, I'm not denying that there are people struggling. Obviously, there are. And I'm not insensitive to that. >> I just feel like we're spending too much time on that topic as a society. It's like we're only focusing we're there's so much good there's so much good happening in the world and it's very easy to feel like there's just a lot of bad things happening because there are and we're more aware of it. But there's a lot of good things happening. I was in the airport today at JFK, one of the busiest airports in the world. And guess what? It's not all billionaires in there. But here's the thing. It's never been easier to look around you and see wealth extravagantly on social media and in news stories. >> Yeah. Well, I agree. Well, guess what? We don't but we don't need to contribute to that on this podcast. >> All right. I told in the world as it is. >> No, no, no. No, you're living on social media world as it is. >> Cuz listen, AI is going to make wealth inequality is going to be supercharged in the next decade. you watch >> but outside of social media this is not this is not a topic of conversation >> uh >> wealth inequality I don't know man going to be you wait this is going to be a big thing in the coming decade this is going to be a huge issue you watch it sound like you sound like you sound like you're rooting for it what do you mean wait hold on what do you mean it's going to be an issue is a it is an issue it is an issue I'm not saying that it's not It is an issue. But do we ever focus on the positives or are we only going to focus on the negatives? >> Hey, listen. I You're right. I am a I try to be a positive guy. I will uh listen, I think the fact that so many in the stock market is a huge positive. >> It's so easy to focus on the negatives and it's I'm over it. Sorry. >> All right. I've got I got something for you that in later in the show. I'll I'll say it now. How was how was this? This is me trying to contribute positively. Um, I think a personality trait, and this is true probably of people on social media or more middle-aged people, is my personality is I don't like popular things, right? So, they hate on anything that's popular. Um, and my daughter was telling me she hates this cuz she's a she's a Swifty. She's a big Taylor Swift fan. And a lot of I feel like middle-aged people are saying, "Oh, Taylor Swift has another album. Oh, great. It's awful. The Have you heard the lyrics?" And uh I'll tell you what, I had to I was in the car with my daughter for an hour uh on the way to a soccer tournament this weekend and we listen had to listen to the whole time because that's what we do. And uh I nodded my head a few times. It's not bad. I feel like if if your whole thing is like things that are popular are not good. Um that's not a personality trait. That's just being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. How's that? >> I'm saying new Taylor Swift album not bad. That's my contribution to positive thinking for this this week. How's that? >> Let's go positive. Okay. Um, so a lot of people have wondered why is it that the stock market hasn't cared about tariffs at all. There are no tariffs on the stock market. How's that? This is Joey Pitano from Aparitus has this cool substack. He said the single largest exemption for tariffs covering an astonishing $34 billion of imports per month is for computers and parts. An exemption that AI companies are now completely relying on for the record-breaking investment push. So he shows the largest tariff uh exemptions and it's like there's Mexico, Canada, pharmaceuticals, energy, precious metals, smartphones, and computers and parts are way at the top. Um and he says that's a big part of the growth. So um he said large parts of the US economy are totally dependent on this tariff exemption exception for computer imports. Um, and so his point is if free trade is delivering such amazing results for the one sector still able to enjoy it, why are we subjecting farmers, manufacturing, and families to this protectionism? In other words, if data centers get to be exempt from tariffs, shouldn't we all be? Um, which I think is a fair point. Uh, if we're going to like let and I it's a good news that they decided to exempt all the AI stuff because it's helped the economy, it's helped the stock market. Um, but maybe we should just not have them at all. How's that? >> Sure. >> Right. works for me. >> Um, Ben, I saw that Apple I think I didn't read the I didn't read the story, so it was something about the Vision Pro and them like maybe scaling back their efforts to making a smaller, lighter, better version of it. >> How long How long did you have it for? Like a week before you got rid of it? >> Yeah. >> I mean, that thing just bombed, right? There's like one guy who wore it to his wedding. And does anyone still use it, do you think? >> Oh, to your wedding. Tough scene. Anyway, um Zuckerberg is really making a push for the the glasses, not like the goggles, the glasses. And Gmon had a piece. He said, uh they're investing hundred billion dollars into these technologies. >> God, I I I hope these things bomb. >> So, he said, "I believe glasses will take about 5 years to gain traction. Uh and once there, this technology should become central to consumer spending." And there's a picture of Zer with a glass. I just I don't think I don't think so. I think that society society will >> I hope so. I really hope so. I I don't have a lot of faith in society in the short run, but the ability to just video camera, videotape someone with your glasses and not have them know it, I think is so creepy. Like I don't think the upside outweighs the downside on these things at all. >> I I agree. >> There's way too many creeps that are going to use these things. But here's the thing. So here if you want to have a cynical view of AI. So OpenAI and Facebook both said they're going to roll out these AI social media video platforms. So the Sora is the new one. And um I think that these companies are just better off the dumber we all get and that's how they make money. Like, do you really trust Mark Zuckerberg to bring goodness from AI into the world, or is he going to use it to to make us watch slop videos and get mad about stuff that didn't actually happen to keep eyeballs in his social media platform? Like, I have zero faith that he's going to use AI >> as a positive for humanity. I think he's going to extract every last bit out of us and try to make us dumber so he can make more money. >> Yeah, we're Let's put a pin in this. There's some AI there's some social media stuff later on in the show. Uh, but yes, I agree with you. All right. Um, so Josh had the privilege of interviewing Peter Lynch last week in Boston, which was quite a treat. Um, and one of the things that so Josh did this thing where he read a lot of his greatest quotes and had him react to them. And I had forgot I had forgotten how many amazing quotes were attributed to him. My my favorite of all time that's his is selling your winners, which guilty I've done this way too many times. selling your winners and buying adding to losers is like pulling out your flowers and watering the weeds. How good is that? >> I was always pretty partial to the refrigerator one, too. >> What's that like? >> Oh, yeah. Yeah. >> Just that people do more research on buying a refrigerator than they do on the stocks that they buy. >> You know, I saw he he did that. He did that bit for me in the green room. It was pretty cool to say. >> Playing the greatest hits. Anyway, um, so during the conversation, Costco came up and he was saying that he can't really make sense of the valuation. So, I did some research. >> Me and Peter Lynch were the same. >> I did some research over the weekend. Um, and the PE of Costco going back to the start of the 21st century was around 20. It's been around 20 between 2000 and 2020. And then it just exploded higher. Got as high as 60 earlier in the year. And I I went on Y charts like what's going on here? Is are we getting margin expansion? Is that the deal? So the top is gross profit margin. Nope. About 10 12%. Been that way forever. Look at operating operating margin. Bottom line profit margin. Nope. 3%. So it's like, all right, well let's look at the uh the membership revenue. And yeah, this is going higher. And this pretty much flows to the bottom line. It was $2 billion in 2016. It's now up to 5 billion, but so what? I mean, it's a giant company. Um, so I I went on all of the different LLMs. I went on uh um Anthropic and Chat GBT and Gemini and they all said the same thing. Uh I think it's CHBT. Yes, the PE multiple for Costco has expanded materially, but it's not solely or even primarily because Costco is suddenly massively more profitable. Rather, it's a combination of modest margin tailwinds emphas emphasis on modest growth in e-commerce international and scale the strength and stability of the membership model a premium multiple for perceived defensive qualities investor rerating dynamics and they all said the same thing there was there was nothing there that was like oh I get okay this makes sense it just has been levitating for reasons that are I'm sure somebody knows why I don't know why >> okay that's good so no one can answer the question either All right. Is it I think it's just sometimes there's a rerating where people just all of a sudden investors realize that remember Apple had this rerating their PE ratio. >> Yeah. But 50 for Costco. >> It does seem it seems a little a little high. Although have you been there on a Saturday or Sunday before? Well, it's the worst place on earth. Um how about this? I'm still Open Door is up. How much is it up from the lows? Is it a >> thousand? It was 85 cents when he first tweeted about it, give or take. >> Okay. So, now it's almost $10. Okay. >> Wow. >> So, it's a 10bagger more. So, uh the Wall Street Journal had this piece on it. They said, "For all the recent excitement, a crucial problem remains. The economics of home flipping business don't scale. Expecting Open Door to figure them out now represents a triumph of hope over experience." >> Oh, yeah. Guess what, It's up 15% today. Shove it. I tend to unless they completely change their line of business, if they're going to stick with house flipping as their strategy because it says that for the first half of 2025 it had $227 million of gross profit on $2.7 billion of revenue. This is a low margin business and I to me it's a prove it thing. If you want to prove that technology can fix the real estate market, I got to see it first. And again, unless they totally pivot their business to doing something else, I don't see how this house flipping thing ever works at on at scale. >> It's up 50%. Holy cow. >> I just I don't understand. Well, yeah, they've got new people coming in and but I don't see how the business itself I don't see how it works. >> It's never worked to come in, >> right? >> I don't know anything about its business. My default would be this is this is tricky but I I just don't know >> house flipping you can't techn housing is the one place technology has not been able to supplant the right it hasn't been able to work at all I I'm going to have to see it to believe it maybe it'll happen someday but it has not happened yet all right speaking of the housing market it is normalizing this is from >> L what do we mean >> all right 21 of the nation's 50 largest metro area housing markets in September 2025 had more active housing inventory for sale than in September 2019, up from just 13 of 50 in September 2024. So, in 40% of the largest metro areas, there's more houses for sale now than there were in 2019 pre- pandemic. So, this is it's it's actually kind of happening a little bit. Uh Bloomberg had this chart where they show the inventory for sale plus or minus August 2019, and it's pretty much just the Northeast and the Midwest that we've been talking about. whatever else is is normalizing in there's more houses for sale. So listen to this. There are now more completed home new homes on the market than at any time in the past 16 years for sale. The problem is part of this remains kind of a buyer strike and I wonder if this is just rates have been so high for so long and so are prices that this normalization is gone the minute mortgage rates hits 5%. >> Oh yeah. So this to me this seems like yay things are getting back to normal. But the reason they're getting back to normal is because no one wants to pay up right now for 6 and a half% mortgages and higher housing prices besides you ex Michael Batneck. But don't you think that this is a case where yay we get normaliz? It feels like a stalemate to me where once rates fall, everyone back into the pool and see you later. >> Yeah, I agree with that. >> Right. I I don't I don't think this is like the housing market has been fixed. And I I guess the the thing about it is what was I going to say? I lost my train of thought. >> That's okay. >> All right. This is a cool chart. I can't remember where I found this one. Maybe someone had this on Reddit. might have been Nick's Nick Majory's blog. The portion of housing units built before 1960 percentage by state. You know the state with the highest percentage built before 1960 is >> wow New York. 53% of houses were built before 1960 in New York. 35% for Michigan. Uh there's going to be a lot of renovation needed in the years ahead. I think this is especially true when baby boomers start dying out of their homes. There's going to be a ton of renovations that are needed for people coming into these houses >> on a nationwide. It's like 26%. DC and New York are both over 50%. Those are the two highest. >> Kind of crazy, right? Michigan 30 36%. >> Switching. Yeah, it's a good chart. Um Ben, switching gears to the private markets. Uh, one of the executives at I believe KKR was doing an interview and she said, "There are 19,000 private equity funds in the US. There are 14,000 McDonald's. How are there more private equity funds in McDonald's? That's actually crazy, right? That seems that doesn't seem right. >> You know, they they did this for hedge funds, too, back in the day." >> Yeah. I >> remember people used to say there's there's 7,000 Taco Bells and 10,000 hedge funds. Why are there more hedge funds in Taco Bells? >> Can I just Can I call BS? Who said there's 19,000 private equity funds? That sounds made up. 19. No, that's honestly that probably is cuz every one of these funds has fund one, fund two, like they're funds that are still in existence, right? So that actually kind of makes sense to me. >> 19,000. >> Are you're just going on vibes here alone? You don't just don't >> I'm I'm sources sources I made it up. >> I'm just saying it sounds it sounds crazy. >> All right. According to Gemini, there are over 18,000 to over 39,000. There's 10,000 private equity firms as of 2020. So, it's more now. >> Yeah. Private equity by the numbers. >> All right. So, >> lot of funds. >> There's all that dry powder and you're bearish. McDonald's maybe >> there is there is a there is a story brewing in the uh in the private markets. Um there was there's two bankruptcies in the auto space. One of them is called First Brands I believe is the name of the company and the other is is it a color or is that a salad? I don't know. two auto companies that went kabooy, a lot of offbalance sheet stuff, a lot of private credit things, and is this the canary in the coal mine? I I will admit that I am a tourist at best here. Um, so >> with all the dry powder there is, these businesses must been really really bad that they would just let them fail because you think they just take money from somewhere else to prop them up. >> Um, so a man group had a o a post over the spring dispelling five myths about private credit. So they're saying yeah the market grew at a compound annual growth rate of 17% from 2016 to 2022. It's forecast to grow at 11% from 24 to 28. So it's huge. It's $3 trillion. But they have a great chart showing uh fixing the denominator blindness. If you look at noninvestment grade compared to investment grade, you would say what's the story here? I don't I don't see anything. See this chart? >> Okay. as a percentage of the overall market non-investment grade is pretty steady at what is that 30% or so give or take. Anyway, there's definitely seems some cracks in the market. So, some of the companies are getting hit pretty hard the equity. Blue Owl for example, uh which other ones are not doing well. Uh Kar's hanging in there. Some of them are doing worse than others, but anyway, a lot of the BDC's are getting destroyed. So, Blondes and Money tweeted, "I don't own any BDC's, but the BDC squad is flashing a warning sign. All names in the toilet this year, and a lot of the sponsored BDC's like HSBD are absolutely tanking." So, again, I am ignorant here. I'm a tourist at best, but I am in the camp right now that nothing bad happens. Now, I know it sounds toppy. I know that sounds complacent. something bad is h two companies went out of business and these firms are hitting something bad kind of is happening. >> So I bought Aries Capital Corporation ARCC. That is definitely definitely definitely definitely not investment advice again. >> You're trying to catch a flying knife here. >> I am. I don't know nothing. I'm just I I still I I think that uh I think that uh nothing bad ever happens. >> Throw this in my face if this is the top and we have an 80% crash here. I apologize. But that's where that's that's the mood. That's the current mood. I'm in the I don't I don't believe it camp. And there's a lot of people that are like dying, dying, dying, dying, dying for the private credit story to fall apart. Uh I'm taking the other side. >> Are you blinded by your long-term bull thesis that the RA money has to come in here? >> Maybe. >> Okay. I just I don't I I don't I don't think this is the epicenter of the next credit crisis, which uh I am stipulating that there it might be. I don't know how to handicap this. I have no idea. >> This is another one of those things where I would love to fast forward 5 to seven years to see how this stuff does in an actual downturn. I think it's going to be really interesting to see. >> But wait, but but hold on. These BDC have been around forever. These are not these are not new. >> I'm not saying that. I'm saying the private how how it impacts the private credit. So, if if private credit returns go from 11 to 9% because there's some defaults, is anyone really going to care about that? No. If >> Well, I'll tell you who's going to care. The Financial Times. They're going to they're going to dance on the grave and act like they called it. >> All right. But if the returns went from 11% to 2%, then people can say, "Whoa." Right. >> Correct. >> Then then, okay, game on. >> Game on. >> All right. Sports gambling survey of the week. This is from Pew Research. A growing share of Americans view legal sports betting as bad for society. >> It's up for >> 43% up from 34% in July 2022. Um, this is way lower than I would have thought. They say only one in 10 US adults now say they have placed an online sports bet in the past year. >> One in 10. >> Way lower than I would have thought. No, >> these names uh which I DraftKings uh Flutter which is um FanDuel got destroyed last week on news that Kalia is allowing parlays I think. Um, >> wait. So, you can parlay like who's going to win the Oscar with uh >> I don't know that that sounds that sounds very >> going to be president of Ecuador. >> Only one in 10, but the growing shares of Americans view legal sports betting as bad for society and sports. Yeah. You think if Listen, I love gambling. I love it. I have a lot of fun with it. It's not up to me. But if I could wave a magic wand and end it, I would. Sorry. What? >> No, you're you're willing to let wealth inequality flourish, but you want to end sports gambling. I see how it is. >> That's capitalism. I like capitalism. >> No, I But here's the thing. >> No, no, no. Because the thing is, uh, sports betting is just it's negative sum. There's nobody. >> It really is. >> And and don't email me if you're if you want. I'm happy for you. On balance, it is a drain on society. And there are people there are lots of people whose lives are getting absolutely ruined. And and unfortunately, I know I I know people whose lives are being ruined by this. And >> way more people than their lives are being helped by this. And no, we had an email this morning from someone who said that his sports gambling picks beat the S&P over for the last year. >> Great. >> He wants to come to the podcast. It's still not legal in California or Texas. Not yet. Some politician is going to make this an issue. And if this really was an issue that they said at the federal level, we're going to ban sports gambling. You know where there would be a big short. The sports podcasting industry because they are so intertwined everyone's uh advertisements. or the FanDuel or DraftKings or their pick your sports book. Every sports podcast right now is >> that's powered by sports gambling. >> That's first level thinking. Somebody would step in to fill the void. >> Okay. >> And by the way, that is weird. I'm in Texas right now. Can't place any wagers. >> I That's shocking to me. I didn't realize. >> I want I want to lose some money tonight on the the Jaguars Chiefs. >> It's shocking to me that it's not legal in Texas with all the their whole thing about being deregulated and such. >> Um All right. our friend Gungeon interviewed >> Hey, credit to you for not giving us like your latest parlays of the week there that I don't want to hear about. >> Nobody cares. I'm well aware. Um, Gungeon at the Wall Street Journal interviewed Ken Ricky. He is the chairman of Flexjet. Uh, he's a billionaire and he was very candid about how he spends money, very open how he talks with his family about spending money. I I I loved that I thought it was fascinating and uh I think she's hopefully she does more of it because it was really good. One of the things that he said during the interview was he tips $1,000 at a restaurant when he goes there for the first time at a hotel when he gets to a hotel for the first time. He tips $10,000. Now remember we spoke about this a couple of months ago. It was April and I thought it was really cool to see a guy at the hotel take out a hundred bucks or 200 bucks or whatever it was and tip the person. I was like, "Wow, that's awesome. I want to do that one day." And not I mean I I could let 100 bucks I think I could swing that. Um but Robin had a good take on this. She said wait he's not just being generous. He he he wants something for that $100. And I was like of course. >> So this guy said and and this is fair. He tips $10,000 when he gets there. And he said if you tip at the beginning they know what your expectations are. And I love that he wants to get ser like he's doing something very very very nice. Not to show off per se, but he wants good service. And what's wrong with that? And it's phenomenal. Now, I'm a I'm a low maintenance guy. I I don't need somebody like waiting on me like that. As a former waiter myself, I don't need that. >> But I I I love I love generosity. >> If you're a billionaire, that's money well spent, right? >> Hell yeah. >> I like it. What what is what is a better >> purpose of money than than making people like making people's month year? >> I love it. >> Convenience, right? >> Um, okay. On the other side of uh the billionaires, let's talk about the buy now pay later stuff. So, there was an article in Fortune with the headline, a quarter of US consumers are now financing groceries with buy now pay later as economic pressures mount survey says. I wonder if you would replace that buy now pay later with credit cards. Yeah, that seems like a this seems like a nothing burger to me. I think young people are using these as credit cards, are they not? Is that the correct story? >> So, from the article, more Americans are taking advantage of financing options for essential purchases. The latest sign of mounting concern. Is it really? Um, one quarter of shoppers have used buy now pay later for groceries, up from 14% who uses the service a year ago. Guess what? Buy now pay later is still pretty early. What if people are just opting for that over grocery over credit cards? And I will refrain and wait till we hear from these companies on their earnings call because last quarter we looked at this. I listened to a firm and their default rate was like >> they were fine, right? >> Nothing. >> The thing is you could you could take my personal budget and say Michigan man spends uses credit cards for 98% of his purchases and you'd think this guy is doing awful. But no, I do it because it's convenient. It's easy. Exactly. >> I'm I'm getting floated a monthlong loan from JP Morgan and American Express for my payments and and they give me rewards in in return. >> It's a great deal. >> All right. This is uh there's an article in the Financial Times um talking about the decline on time spent on social media. So, it peaked in 2022. They break it down by age brackets. 16 to 24. You're seeing a fairly dramatic decline. And the older you get, it's a little bit less or so. Um, and then they show up by geography. So, the global average is rolling over. North America, we're still hitting a number hitting an all-time high. Two and a half hours a day almost on social media. I only I'm only on Twitter on nights and weekends. And I feel worse than ever about it because during the day I uh thank God I I don't have time for this anymore. Um so I'm very little time spent during the day. But every I feel I feel terrible when I'm laying with my kids and I'm on like the 4U tab and I'm doing at their baseball game. It's I'm only on the weekends and I feel it's making it's making me not happy. I don't like it. >> Yeah. See, I I stay away from the for you tab for sure. >> How do I How do I Ben? How do how do I unaddict myself? Cuz I'm really again I'm not on it during the week, during the day at all. Ever. >> But a lot of this brain rot it's it's >> Is there any doubt anymore? Is anybody saying social media is like a net benefit or we is that charade over? >> This is a good thing that it's it's flowing. I I still find value in it in terms of finding charts and stories and stuff that we use. But I'd be if I said that's the only reason I'm doing it. Obviously. >> No, you're addicted. So am I. But guess what? You know what? If if you just looked at the daily chart book every day and what some of the other substacks and and Sam, you'd be well taken care of. You don't need to be on social media. >> This is true. Yeah. No, I it's been I've been doing it for way too long. I I can't can't help it. Uh okay, this is interesting. This from Scott Galloway. We talked about the slop stuff earlier. Um and he said people don't actually want to create content. They just want people to feed it for them. And that that's where like OpenAI and Facebook is going to step in and do it. He says 4% of YouTube videos account for 94% of the views on the platform. 5% of videos on Tik Tok generate 89% of the views and Instagram is saying 3% generate 84%. The top 25 podcasts reach nearly half of US Weekly listeners. >> You know what's interesting? So, but I'm on Instagram too and I Instagram doesn't make me feel bad. I get enjoyment out of it. I don't I don't feel like the world is ending after I close my Instagram app. >> Yeah. See, it's kind of funny. I don't really use Instagram, but that Yeah, because it's it's harder to make the world look bad through pictures cuz that that's in a lot of cases reality unless it's AI crap. >> Is it is the simple reason I haven't thought about this, but I'm sure a lot of other people have because there's just no sharing, there's no retweeting, there's no quote tweeting >> and dunking people. >> Negativity doesn't go viral. It's just it's just good vibes. >> I tell you, I don't know. But but anytime a tweet now gets more than a certain amount of likes, call it 500 likes, I can't believe how many trolls there are coming out of the woodwork to tell you how awful things are and how terrible. >> I can't believe I can't believe you can't believe it. >> It it obviously that's a thing that's gotten way way worse in the last 5 years is just the sheer amount of people who think everything is bad at all times or that's the character they're playing. I don't know. All right, so story time. I uh my I said my daughters are Swifties, so my wife took them to see on Sunday morning to see like apparently there's some Taylor Swift music video thing that's tied to a new album in the movie theater. I think it was the number one movie this this weekend by box office. So my my two daughters and my wife went to see it. So my son, what do you want to do? Let's me and you go do something. And so we went to the zoo and it was a good reminder about graduating from certain levels in in your kids' life that I never even thought of that much. When we were when our daughter was younger, our first daughter was born, we got a pass to the zoo. And we would go to the zoo almost unless we didn't have plans, we'd go there every weekend because it was something to do. And when your kids are really young >> and they're still in like stroller age, >> right? Let's go to the zoo. She likes it. And we'd go there all the time. We we we use that family pass so much. And I went to the zoo and my son and I were walking around and realizing we went there on Sunday morning like 10:30 in the morning, you know, before the crowds got there and before it was too hot and I'd say 95% of the people there were parents with kids in a stroller and oh look at the you know and it's just I forgot that oh my gosh we totally graduated from that thing and I never even realized it and now we're on to the the weekends are full of sports games and such and I was talking I had a physical last week and my doctor was asking you know if you go to a doctor or dentist they always ask you Hey, how are the kids doing right every time? And I don't know if they really care. They just want to ask you. But my doctor said, "What do you what's going on with the kids these days?" And I said, "Well, by the way, you coming back? Should I keep going?" >> No, go ahead. Right here. >> My my computer's dying. I'm just uh >> Okay. So I tell them, you know, we're in it with youth athletics and we have soccer, we have football, and and every day, you know, Monday through Thursday, every day we have a practice and then on the weekends we have three or four games every weekend. And he said, "God, I'm so glad to be done with that." And I I think the opposite. I absolutely love it. It's fun. I don't know what else we we'd be doing with our time. Um, obviously I'd maybe be relaxing more or something, but I think it's so much fun to graduate from that old stroller mentality of you're trying to kill time because you don't know what else to do until nap time to now you actually have stuff the kids are involved in and liking. And anyway, it's just I've it was the first time I realized in my life I was like, "Oh my gosh, we graduated this." And then I guess the next step is when they become like social creatures in high school and they start they leave you alone and never just never want to do anything with you. >> Yeah, I see both sides. Um, I I hear what you're saying. I think you're probably right. I'm wrong here. But I was so freaking bored at Logan's T-ball game the other day. And I actually felt like Um, because I was the only Robin was home. I was by myself and I'm on I'm on Twitter on the for you tab and I look up and I'm like, why am I torturing myself? Nobody else is on their phone. >> No, nobody else. >> They're too into the game. Um, but I also do one >> put one of your put in one of your Audible books. >> Uh, so I'm reading our friend our friend's book. Morgan wrote a new book, The Art of Spending Money. >> Yeah, I got it by me somewhere, too. Yeah. >> Um, and Morgan's going to come on our show and talk about it. And he was there was one part about like talking about like what what matters and obviously, you know, time spent with our family and stuff. And he Morgan wrote something about like how much freaking time are we on wasting on social media? Not to I know it's lame to complain about so whatever forgive me but this is my podcast of >> well you were really harping on this this week huh yeah I am come to Jesus moment >> I think I'm just like peak I gota I got I just I just I just got to get off this thing it's just so it's just poison um >> I don't know what else to say it's just you know what it's it's a young man's game person's game the social media thing >> it is but we've all aged with it in a lot of ways. >> Yeah but I think I I think we've aged out of it. That's what I'm trying to say. Um, what else was I going to say? Ben, >> you were say you're not you're not feeling the sports stuff. Listen, >> no offense to baseball people. >> Baseball is as a as a parent, baseball is really really slow. >> It's it's really tough. >> When my son retired from baseball, I did not think twice about asking him again if he wanted. Are you sure? Are you sure? No. Now, even though I'm bored, I am I am not I am never a I can't wait for X person >> because I'm very cognizant that, you know, we're gonna die. People die early. >> Oh, yes. I don't >> I can't wait till this stage. >> Yeah. I I I definitely I never go there. I don't think about that. Um >> I'm the same way. The thing is here here's the thing, though. I got to My daughter had a game in Lancing, which was an hour away. Soccer game this weekend, and it was my turn to bring her cuz my wife had to go to my other daughter's soccer game. So, I was in the car with her for an hour, you know. no screens. We we listened to the new Taylor Swift album, but I just got to talk to her for two hours straight. And that's the best part, the before and after the games. And I try to have a rule, too, of don't unless it's positive. There's no constructive criticism or anything for like 24, 40 hours. And usually at that point, you forget about it anyway. So, there's no like, hey, next time in the game, you should try this. Like I, my wife and I talked about like none of that. We're not doing that. We're not being those people because that everyone hates that person >> who like tries to get in and coach their own kid, you know? Yeah, speaking of uh aging out of things. So, I think we're going to I think we're going to go to Disney in December. This is probably going to be our last year. >> All right. I'm going in November. I'm going I'm going in November, so I will give you all the tips. >> But I feel like Kobe's eight. No, I've been we've been to Disney, but like there's like a very like the boys become like too cool for things pretty around what, like 10? I don't know what >> I could see that my my wife and my kids really want to go to Disney again. I got to be honest. This is one of those things that I would like to be graduated out of. You said I don't want to look forward. >> I love >> Disney is just You do? >> I do. I love it. >> Okay. Just not my thing. Um I I hate crowds. I hate waiting in lines and we're going to probably do the thing where we get the passes and stuff that my wife's going to have that all figured out. I still It's too much for me. >> Okay. >> It's too much. >> Yeah, I get. No, it's not for We're going over Thanksgiving weekend. >> All right. So, recommendations. I I have one thing, you know. I I I've been uh this has been a lot a busy part of my life. Been traveling a lot, moved houses, Jewish holidays, um unpacking, all that sort of stuff. So, I haven't really I haven't watched Black Rabbit or task in a few weeks. I just we haven't I just going to sleep every night I get into bed. Um but I did I did start to watch one new movie, Ben, because I don't know if you know this, but it's it's October. You know what that means? Oh, even more horror movies for you. >> So, for my fellow sickos, there is a new VHS out on Shudder. I only watched the first segment. Ben, don't you don't you don't have to worry about this. And uh yeah, >> wait, why isn't it a VHS? >> No, that's the name of the that's the name of the movie. >> There's like five or six of them. It's called VHS. And there's like um it's like home video/found footage and uh just completely demented. And uh VHS Halloween, the most recent one, is no exception. I saw the first segment, like I said, it's probably I don't know 15 minute bit and I I had to turn up. I said, "This is just too much." In the best way possible. Just totally demented. Totally totally totally sick stuff. >> Okay. Uh, I finally watched F1 this weekend >> and I I know I should have I should have seen se seen in the theater. It was It was a very fun movie. It was very stylish. It It almost in some ways felt like a I've never gotten into F1. I know people who watch the Netflix show like Duncan loves F1. People I know people get up early to watch it and people became big fans. It >> I've never been like a racing person so I never got into it. So I felt like it did a really good job of bringing me along as someone who knows nothing about F1. It did a great job of explaining it. I knew nothing about it. I recognized some of the names, I guess. Um, it did feel a little bit like a commercial for the sport, but I guess that's probably what they were going for. And it didn't The stakes of the movie never felt that high. It right. It just it was a >> It was just a very entertaining movie, like a very easy watch, >> good, clean, >> weren't on the edge of your seat. I'm sure being at the theater in the racing parts would have been better, but honestly, on my couch, I I it was fine. It was I liked it. in Boston last weekend. There's an F1 bar in in uh in the Seapport and we did some fake racing. By the way, gotta be gotta say Boston great city. Oh, quick story. Um >> so you did the Boston to Austin now since you're in Austin this week. >> Boston to Austin. So a friend of ours, I went to go meet him for breakfast and he gave me his address. I punched it up. Oh, this is great. I've never been to Cambridge. I'm going to go see Harvard and see what's up. So, I took a blue bike there, which is their version of the city bike. It's a It was a seven mile ride, so probably took me like 40 minutes. It was great. It was lovely. Beautiful weather. I had a great time listening to uh team arrivals. And it was just a really, really enjoyable moment. So, I call him like, "Hey, I'm here." I come get you. He calls me. Hey, where are you? Like, I'm outside. He goes, "Where?" I said, "I'm next to the whatever bar." He goes, "You in Cambridge?" I said, "Yeah." He goes, "Dude, I told you I'm in whatever town." And I'm like, "So there's there's six church streets in Boston. I went to the wrong one." >> So he should have given you the name of the restaurant or the bar, not the address. >> He gave me the address in the town. I just I didn't punch it in the town. That's that's hand up. >> Okay. All right. I got one more thing on F1. Uh you and I talked about when we saw Gavin Rosdale, he's 60 years old and man, still great looking guy. Brad Pitt, he's like 61, isn't he? 62. He still got the fast ball, man. Uh, all right. I did finish Black Rabbit, and I tell I don't know how far you are into it. >> I'm only 100%. >> It's one of those, okay, it's one of those shows that makes you very uncomfortable because >> bad things keep happening and you're like, "Now this is going to happen. Oh, now that's going to happen. Now this, like >> that's my type of show." >> Okay. It's just things constantly going wrong and nothing ever going right. And to me, I get very uncomfortable with that. But then you want to know how is it going to end? How are they going to how are they going to wiggle the way out of this? And I thought like the ending was it was fine. It was a good show. Good, not great. Like a seven, not an eight, I'd say. Uh I enjoyed it. And you we my wife and I we binged it pretty quick because we wanted to know what's going to happen. Uh finally, you mentioned the I'm saying I'm not going to sports games and and doing the for you tab like you sicko. I'm uh I get to I bring my son an hour early for his football games so we can warm up. And by the way, we're um we're listening to Rage Against the Machine on the way to the football games, getting them pumped up. Uh which is pretty great. He's like, "Hey, put that stuff on again." I liked it. So, I put some earphones in and I put my Audible on it. I walk around, you know, the school campus and I and so I've been listening to the Hamilton one. I'm almost done with it finally, which is really, really long. Probably way just way too long. Listen, Ron Cherno, great author. >> Wait, way too long. >> Just cut 40% of it out. Yeah. But the stuff that people write in all biographies when they describe a person from the olden times, it all sounds the same. >> He was a bar man. >> Yes. He had a bulbous nose and rosy cheeks, a pointed chin, and you kind of go, >> "Who cares? I don't care what he look." >> They're all kind of Anyway, that that's that's what you get in Bagger. But there's Anyway, great stuff in that book. >> It's not It's not our fault, but can we try and make a packact to do uh an AI free episode next week? Now listen, we didn't make the deal with Open AI and AMD. Like, I don't I I'd love to talk about something else. >> We're in the midst of a mania. Why do you want to talk about anything else? >> It's It's I feel like it's a lot is I feel like the audience is bored. Frankly, I'm a little bored. >> This is You said this is potentially one of the biggest stories of this century, and you want to just rug. >> No, I don't want to sweep anything under the rug. Can we I just want to Can we just Can we maybe take a week off? Maybe. >> All right. If if we won't debate whether it's a bubble or not. How's that? >> Yeah. >> Okay. >> Listen. >> All right. That's >> Last thing. Can we just Let's choose a little bit of positivity. >> I want to put I want I want people to finish our episode feeling like this is the not for you tab. I want people to feel good. >> I know there's a lot of really ugly happening in the world. There always has been. Unfortunately, there always will be. The world is a dark and scary and dangerous place. But I feel like people don't come to us for that. And I just want to put out goodness. That's all. >> I put the good I put the good news of the week heading in here. I want you to fill it up for next week. How's that? >> That's your homework. >> Hey, these hats at idolshop.com. I believe they're sold out at the moment. The compound hats. >> They are. >> They're going to be coming back soon, >> right? >> For those of you who are listening, Ben just put his hat on. >> They're coming back soon. And these are the the trucker hats with the compound. People love them. They're coming back soon. Hopefully Nicole will let us know and we'll let you know when they they're back. But they're they're sold out right now cuz people love them. Shophop.com for all your merchandise needs. I was passing out the Animal Spirits koozies to my friends at the dads at the soccer game the other day. That that went over well. >> Those are fun. >> All right, send us your email. Animal spirits at the compoundnews.com. Thanks to the production team as always. Michael's been filming in different cities every week it seems like. Uh and they're dealing with his spotty internet and everything else. So, thanks everyone for listening and we'll see you next time. [Music]