Main Strategy: Guest pitches a binary, rules-based model for individual investors to stay long US equities (S&P 500) until a 7-8% drawdown triggers an exit.
: When out of equities, the model allocates 100% to Treasury Bills, emphasizing capital preservation and simplicity over a 60/40 mix.
Institutional Stance: For trading-oriented clients, a VXN-derived signal on Dec 11 indicated a short S&P 500 positioning with strict stop parameters.
2026 Outlook: Described as “unusual,” with higher volatility, more frequent corrections, and potential for sharp swings, though not necessarily a full bear market.
Model Edge: Signals focus on rare breadth/volume extremes at major lows, with a backtested track record since 1957 significantly outperforming buy-and-hold.
Implementation: Retail investors are advised to use broad S&P 500 exposure (preferably low-cost ETFs) and avoid sector bets or leverage.
Sector/Asset Views: Caution on precious metals (late-cycle, reversal risk) and acknowledgment of Bitcoin’s bear trend, while equity positioning remains data-driven.
Risk Management: Clear rules—100% in or out—reduce decision fatigue; alerts are infrequent (roughly one trade every 1.25 years) but decisive.
Transcript
But to individual investor recommend stay long. No reason to get out yet. The market just made a new high a couple of days ago. You may hear people on Adam Tiger's show telling you to get out. There going to be a crash ahead. But what we telling our clients is there'll be a crash. The market go going to go down 50%. It first has to go down 7% or 8% before it gets down 50%. >> Sure. >> Clients following this this program can uh can can uh sit through a seven or eight% decline as long as they know this there's a a model that's going to get them out before it's down 50%. And that's exactly what they're trying to do. >> Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Tagert. Today, we've got the good fortune to speak with Milton Berg, founder and chief executive officer of MB Adviserss, a premier global macro research and consulting company offering investment advice to the world's largest asset managers. Now, Milton's just made his proprietary buyell model available to retail investors for the first time and he'll walk us through it today. Milton, thanks so much for joining us. Hey, it's a pleasure to see you, Milton. Um, I think we've had you on once before, at least on the Thoughtful Money channel, but great to have you back on, um, especially early in 2026. Happy New Year. I hope you had a wonderful holiday with your family. >> Um, we're off to an interesting start already here in 2026. So, why don't we just get to the meat of it right out of the gate here. Um, we'll go through your ch whatever charts you want to go through in a second, but um, at a high level, if you had to kind of pick a word or a theme to define what you expect 2026 to be like in the financial markets, what would it be? >> Unusual. >> Okay. Unusual. >> Unusual market, right? Not a regular market. >> All right. And and what are the main reasons why you picked that word? Well, basically you're seeing um uh culmination of years of speculation. Uh say gold and silver, platinum, palladium. Uh gold's up some 185% over the last few years. And the the the public is is seemingly and institutions as well are saying, "Hey, there's inflation. Let's get out. Let's get on the bandwagon, get on gold now." But Weinberg showed me that we're at the end of a of a long-term move rather the beginning of a of a move. So uh with gold and silver uh probably going to reverse with Bitcoin already in a bare market with the stock market according to some measures as overvalued as it's never been in history. Although we don't use overvaluation our work but the reality is an overvalued market is more likely to have a some hiccups of bare markets than a market that's fairly valued or undervalued. So markets worldwide and the debt situation. So I'd say be unusual. I'm not saying the market is going to go down necessarily. When markets are in the current situation, usually you see more volatility than usual. You see more corrections than usual and sometimes you see uh major bare markets in that situation. Not what we're projecting, but I just say it'll be unusual and different. >> Okay. So, we had um some great years in the markets for investors during COVID, right? Because just so much liquidity was getting shoved into the system. Um folks then got surprised in 2022. Um but then we went right back to pretty quiescent markets that just like to go up. Sounds like you're saying 2026 it's probably not likely to be nearly as quiescent. It might not be 2022 bad, but it's probably not going to be just the easy ride that we've had the past couple years. >> Well, it really depends on um what takes place during the year. I mean inflation is still high. um there is chances of recession. So it's really difficult to predict at this time exactly what will happen. That's why I use the term unusual. I'd rather not make a projection. But once we're getting to the data, my data is saying uh giving us many clear indication as to both what stocks and bonds could do as well as what gold could do. So once we get to the data, it won't be just an opinion. >> All right. Well, far be it for me to stand between the viewers of this channel and the data. So why don't we get to your slides, Milton, and I'll just let you drive. You take us anywhere you like. Well, first I want to start with um uh we have uh two types of clients. We have institutional clients who are somewhat more trading oriented. They're able to use leverage. They're able to go to sectors. We're able to go short one sector, long another sector. And now we just started a new project where we have retail retailer we call the individual investors. And individuals are more interested in the long term. So let me start with the institutional side a little bit. For the institutions um we're actually recommended to go short on December 11th. actually December 12th, December 11th at the close. On December 11th, we got a very rare uh sell short signal based on the VXN. VXN is the VIX, but it's a V VIX using the NASDAQ 100 rather than the S&P 500. So, we get is we get I don't give away the secret source here, but basically, we look at a short-term ratio to to a a a longerterm short-term ratio to see some sort of a major shift in VXN relative to its uh its short-term uh trading pattern. And this gave us a sell on December 11th. Now through yesterday's close, the S&P has only gained 0.91% 21 days past that signal. So everyone's so excited about the great 5day uh 6 day uh return we had earlier in the year. The reality was this short sale on December 11 is still very very valid. Even though the market's up 0.91%, for example, in 2021 when we got the signal on day 21, the market was up.94%. And the total decline from the date of the sell signal was 21.41%. So being up 0.91% is meaningless. We're we're short for the for our prostitutional clients. And I and if we're stopped out, we'll be stopped out. If we get 2.75% above the the close of December 11th, this trade will not have worked. But at this time, despite all the hype and everyone talking about the first five years, five days telling you what's going to happen for the rest of the year, our uh the models we look at tell us to be cautious, at least for institutional type investors who who can trade, who are watching the screens every day and and able to get in and out. So our our our official recommendation now is to be uh short the S&P 500 or whatever index you choose. That's as far as that goes. Now I say we uh we talk about the retail investors for the retail investors or we call me not really retail but we call them individual investors. A totally different story. So what we have is this. We went long. We have a model we created. I spent 10 years working on this this model. It's a model unlike anyone else in Wall Street has which I hope to demonstrate in the next couple of minutes. But basically this model began in uh we begin this model in 1957 for the S&P 500. The first question we're asked is the S&P 500 began in 1928. What kind of model starts in 1957? Well, the answer is in 1958 to 1957 there were only 90 stocks in the S&P 500 and the committee that was deciding what goes into stocks was very very slow. So stocks weren't changed that often. 1957 they raised it to 500 stocks. So now it's a a very broad index that represents 80% of the stock of the total US stock market. So we start in 1957 to create our models. The model since 1957 getting in and out generally basically we have an average of one roundtrip trade in a one and a quarter years. Again it's for individual investors. a hedge fund couldn't get away with this. But um basically since 1957 uh the average trade you buy S&P and you sell the S&P until you buy the S&P again it was an average of 1.25 years per trade and we have the battles telling us that the gain peranom was 18 and a half% this is total return including dividends relative to a buy and hold gain peranom of 10.9%. So it's a very very amazing outperformance. Now many institutions almost all institutions would be happy to have a 68 year track record of 18.5%. I don't think there is any institution that has that track record. Even Warren Buffett has sunk below it. So um it's an amazing return. So uh that's so individual investors we recommended getting long on April 4th. Again that was just a theoretical recommendation because we had we didn't start our individual investor program yet. But we started an actual account on June 1st and that account is up nearly 18% since June 1st being 100% invested in the S&P 500 through the VO rather than the SPY because the VIO has a less of a less expense ratio than the SPY does. We actually slightly slightly out from the market through yesterday by 0.3% which is fine. So we to individual vest recommend stay long. No reason to get out yet. The market just made a new high a couple of days ago. You may hear people on Adam Tiger's show telling you to get out. There's going to be a crash ahead. But what we telling our clients is if there'll be a crash, the market go down going to go down 50%. It first has to go down 7% or 8% before it gets down 50%. >> Sure. >> Clients following this this program can uh can can uh sit through a seven or eight% decline as long as they know this there's a a model that's going to get them out before it's down 50%. And that's exactly what they're trying to do. So this is um this is the first thing I want to discuss. And >> Milton, can I ask you one question about the this model that you're trading off of now? Yeah. >> Um, is it is it binary? Is it is it 100% in the S&P? >> We we believe we believe as long as America remains a capitalistic society and I can't predict the future. You never know what's going to happen 10 and 15 years down the road. But as long as America remains a capitalistic society, the stock market should continue. What has done over the years is go higher and higher and higher on a an index basis. It's up 7.9% peranom over the last say 100 years on a total return basis. It's up nearly 11% peranom. So that should continue happening. So we tell our investors the S&P 500 is the broadest index. You're not an institution. You don't have to try to pick which sector. You don't have to pick either technology or pick biotech or pick utilities. Get it 80% of the stocks of the value of the stock market is in the S&P 500. And that's where you want to be to take to take advantage of the major up moves. The problem is people don't want to see through down moves. And that's why we have the model. The model tells you when to get in. The model is very very precise, which we'll see soon, in when getting in. It's not very precise in getting out. So, what we did is I I wasn't able to model market tops as well as as as modeling market bottoms. So, we set ourself either the market's down seven or eight% no matter what the fundamentals are, we're going to get out and wait for the next buy signal. Just to point out, going back to the previous chart, you see, we show us 18.5% if you got out at 8%. you you actually have a greater return if you got out when the market's down 7%. The problem is that far too many trades. You're having one and a quarter trade peranom if you get out down 8%. You have about more than more than one trade perom if you get out at uh 70%. So basically we really favor getting out when the market's down 7% but we retain that flexibility. I'm not telling our clients that I promise you when the market's down eight 7% you'll be out because most likely you won't be out unless the market's down 8% or so. But that's not etched in stone. What is etched in stone is when we get in and we try to get in. The models are built to get in really within days of a market low. And it's been very very successful in doing that. So these are all the all this is just one chart showing all the buy signal dates since 1957. And you can see April 4th, 2025 is the last buy signal. Prior to that was November 2nd, 2023. And we'll get to the next give you a little bit bit better idea what we're doing. This is what the model has done. I'll get to what I'll get to the insides of the model very soon. Now I just want to give you the background as to what the model has done for us and exactly what goes into the model because I know everyone's going to be very skeptical when they see this this data because no one has ever created this type of a model in the stock market especially not using leverage and just using a broad index. >> So this is the we call it the edge model. Miltonberg edge is what Jennifer decided to call it and it's uh this is the yearly return relative to the S&P 500. So I I highlighted the years in which the market were down just to give a contrast. So in 1962 with the S&P down 8.83% 83% the model was up 18.55%. Basically because it was out during the bulk of the decline and got in within days of the low in 1962. Uh in 1969 the market was down 8.4% and the model was up 0.99% again outperforming. 73 there's a 7374 2-year bare market. In 73 the S&P was down 14.8% and the model was flat down 0.2%. But in 74 with the market down another 26% the model was up 20%. This is what basically should take place in bull markets. It'll do exactly what the market's doing. Let me give you an example. So in 2014 2014, the model's up 13.5%. So is the S&P. 2013 the market's up 32% and so is the model. So in an up market, you're not going to outperform the market. But when the market goes up, has either correction or a bare market goes down and you're out for even a small part of that decline and you get back in close to the low, you'll do well. Now, we all know investing advisor are told are taught to tell the clients if you miss five of the greatest days in the market in any given year, you're going to way out underperform. So, don't don't bother timing the market. That is very very true. If you miss the great up days in the year, you'll you you'll do very poorly. But you'll certainly do very very well if you miss the down days, the bulk of the down days. And as we know in any bare market, the greatest volatility doesn't take place early in the bare market. the greatest volatility takes place at the end of the bare market. So, if you're out at a seven or eight% decline in a market that's going down 20%, you will be able to uh retain some of the great losses that index investors have. And if you're getting close to the lows, you probably gain nearly all of the gains you're going to get on those uh those gloriful rallies that take place off a major low. Anyway, this is something I want to show as well, which is just the the year-over-year model and exactly what it has done for what it has done theoretically. Now, I mentioned >> Well, you sold me. Those are those are super impressive returns. >> Super impressive. I know. Be skeptical. I want hard questions. We're going to get to the get under the hood. We're not under the hood yet. Just giving the background. Just this is just a sales pitch. >> Number of trades per year for the S&P 500. S&P TU. This is the model where you you long the S&P 500. No leverage. And when you sell, you don't go short. You purchase T bills or money markets fund. And I just highlighted the years there are no trades. See 58 61 63 67 77 72 83 81 2024 20 no trades. So this is perfect for a long-term investor who doesn't want to be calling his broker every day. He doesn't be looking at CNBC to figure out when the next crash coming. He may not be so interested in listening to Adam Tang any longer because he'll know he has this kind of a program where he'll get out before bare market develop fully develops and he'll get in at the lows. Now, I know this sounds very very like I'm a charlatan or so, but we're going to now start getting in in a couple minutes, we'll get into under the hood and see exactly what's involved. As I say, I worked on this for 10 years. I think nobody else has a product even similar to this. And I uh again, my institutional investors have seen a lot of this in the past, but even for them, I only finished a model in September of this year. So, it's now sort of, you know, it's totally totally complete, but they've seen a lot of my models, but now we've systematized it a bit more. We have about 2,000 models uh for the for the indiv individual investor account. The models that we're showing were built using about 880 models, not all 2,00. And that's a reason there's reasons for that. We'll get to that later on. This is the um actual total return showing you showing the um trade by trade total return. Uh CRL L make it a little bigger. Basically, the model has gained 18.5% since 1957. a $10,000 investment in an IRA or a tax-free endowment from 1957 to uh to uh 2025 would have grown to1 bill17,896 that's the the compound [laughter] miracle miracle of compounding the S&P which has grown 10.9% which is a great return the one the 10,000 would have grown to 10 million 377654 that's not a bad return either but we're trying to do something that uh that is not expected we're trying to see returns double or triple not return double triple but the you want to see a balance after 30 40 50 years of investing in a retirement account. We want to see it 5 6 7 8 9 10 times greater than it would have been had you strictly stuck to an index fund. Uh when when the model is long while it's long the average gain is 26% when it's in it when it's when it when it's when it the average gain when it's positive is 26%. The average loss when there's a loss in the trade is 1.41%. And we'll see. Sounds sounds ridiculous. Let's continue. uh we we actually know theoretically if you have a model that if you have a model that uh goes flat when you sell you should be able to make money if you go short. So we don't not not recommending anyone to go short because it's far more volatility when you go short but using the same data using the same dates had someone started 1957 and had he um had he bought uh S&P 500 on a buy signal and rather than invest in T bills had he went short the market he would have gained rather than 18.5% peranom he would have gained 22% peranom so his $10,000 would be worth 8 bill793,23,930 78 8 billion 793,23,930 there's a P on the other hand would be up we at 11% is up is up to 13 million 12 12 13 million so point yeah I say this because theoretically as you know it doesn't make sense no model that gets you out of stocks and is successful m any model that gets you out of stocks and is successful must also be successful if you'd go short instead of going to T bills or else there's something wrong with the model that's just normal mathematic theory and I that's what I want to point out what you would have done if you go short. But we're not recommending you go short based on this model. Now, let's go a little bit further and see this. This is a the five years of I broke from 1957 to current 2025 in five year increments. So, your viewers can get an idea of exactly what the buys and sells look like. So, the first buy takes place in in early uh in in it's actually in October of 1957. Here's a sell an 8% market decline. And the market we didn't get any buy signals until right here. You see I'm going through the five years at a time. This is a 95.4% of of the long trades are profitable 18.5% peranom. So this is basically here here you got a a sell and a buy within days of each other. Market was down some 8 n 10% and we got a buy immediately after the sell. There are three instances where you got a b a sell and a buy in the same day. We don't display that. the for example I'm going to show you which one it is so you'll know just for in 2011 right here 2011 uh this decline here you see >> in 201 the market was down 7 and a half% one day by the close of it the next day was down 12 and a half% it down 5% on one day the day the low we got a we get a we get a buy signal on the day low actually we show it here it's a buy signal but but no this is not 2011 yeah this is this is 2011 this is not the right day 20 I'm Right. Then we did get a buy signal. That was a great trade. We're talking about a 2015, which is the next next chart. I'm sorry. This is it. See, we 2000 from here to here. The market was down from 12% yet we didn't get a sell. >> Why didn't you get a sell? If we're going to sell every 8%, why did we not get a sell? The reason is because this decline of 12%, we got a buy signal right here. So then the count starts again, the market rallies, and you wait for the next 8% which is right here. This is a very important thing I'm pointing out. We got a we should have got a sell signal here on on August 24th, 2015. The market went from down 78% to down 12%. But we didn't get a sell signal because we got a buy signal and that's why the next sell signal doesn't take place until January of 2016. I want to get that behind us and let's continue further. But basically, the point of this slide is just to show how this model works in real time, showing you the buys and the sells. And we can go to where we are now. The last buy signal was on April 4th, 2025, one day before the low. So this you most of the buy signals take place after the low because the models most of the models do not base themselves on oversold based on a rally often oversold. But when there's very very major oversold conditions, we can get a rally a rally. We get a buy signal before a low. Another instance of a buy signal before the low was in 2020. The market the we got the buy signal one day before the low. the market was down 7% the next day, but had you bought the day after that 7% declined, you you would you wouldn't your return would have been lower than getting in the day before the low because the market was up more than 7% on that day. So, this is basically a picture of how this works. It's just a mechanical I could have made this up. How do we know what's even true? Right? We never know. Plenty of charlatans in this business of plenty people who claim to have a model, but they really can't show what's what's under the hood. We're going to try to show next what's what's under the hood. First I want to say the logic how we've been published in the in the journal of of technical analysis and this I think I may have had this chart in that report. It goes back about at least 15 10 or 15 years ago. We look for r rarities. We don't look for crossing of moving averages which happens you know often. We don't look at uh necessarily what the Fed is doing. We look for rarities in the data. For example this is a histogram of the VIX. It shows the number of days in a row. Okay. VIX was up two days in a row 11.9% of the time. It was down two days in a row 13 12% at a time. If you look if you 5 days uh decline at 4 days up that means it's more than 60 70%. We're looking for instances where the VIX is down 9 days in a row or up nine days in a row 0.02% 0.07%. So point number one is we're not going to our models are not going to no not one of our models are going to call every top or call every bottom. We've created numerous models that have been built to call three, four, five, six, seven bottoms. They've been uh 50 55 bottoms since since um 1957. But we're looking for rarities. We're not looking for generalizations. We're looking for things that only take place only take place at at market generally for the for the model. We're looking for the things that generally only take place at market lows. Let me give you another histogram because this is an actual the mixed days in a row. It doesn't go into our model. I just show for illustration purposes, but this is one of our models. We we coded it ML35MA BN35, which is basically on a five-day basis, you're looking at net up volume versus total New York Stock Exchange volume. Okay? And any in any index, whether it's New York Stock Exchange or the S&P, some stocks are up and some stocks are down. The stocks that up have volume and the stocks that are down have volume. We're looking for extreme volume in the stocks that are declining relative to the stocks that are advancing relative to total volume. So we're looking for periods where the the numbers are 55 60 - 55% - 60 - 65 or on a thrust off a low. We're looking for these kind of numbers. These numbers in the middle are meaningless to us. So while most we can't give an opinion on the market every day. our opinion which he started out saying is individual investors should remain long not because something that's happening today should remain long because we got a m we got a major buy signal on April 4th and there's no reason to sell the market hasn't even corrected five six or 7%. So the most pundits out there are trying to say, "Oh, something happened today. It's affecting the market." No, what affects the market is what happens at major lows and what happens at major peaks. We had a major low. You had record oversold in April on April 4th. You had everyone worried about the Trump tariffs. Everyone thinking we're headed for a recession or depression. I mean, great economists were was dissing this market, dissing the economy. But we got buy signals. So the reason we're bullish now is not has nothing to do with what's happening now. Nothing to do with it at all. We're bullish now because the market gave bullish signals on April 4th and April we actually had 80 signals in April alone. We have over 100 signals in April and May which the institutions get to see the individual investors don't get to see but that is why we're still bullish now. Now why am I uh I started the first slide showing the VXN sell signal that sell signal may just give us a correction of of of 10 or 11 or 12% and it may not even work. I don't know if that signal is going to work but institutions we're trying to get better than we do with this model for individual investors. So this is the history game. Now we're going to try getting into the the meat and potatoes. If you're ready for that, unless you have any questions, Adam, >> serve up the steak, buddy. >> There you go. This is it. This is it. We said there were 55 buy signals [snorts] since 1957. I prepared this to show all 55. We're not going to have time to show all 55, but we'll do the best we can. We'll start with the first one, which is right here. October 21st, 57, we got a buy signal. The market gained 85% before the next 15% correction. gained 55% before the next 7% correction. Okay, great. Now, what what do we get this buy signal? What happened? This is this is the model. Now, I want to point out, Adam, I don't go around telling everybody what's in my model, but here we have I have an incentive because we're trying to get clients in the first we just went public with this retail letter few days ago. We have over a thousand clients. So, we want to get up to maybe 100,000 clients through this uh through the through uh these kinds of presentations. So, we're going to show a little bit of what we have. We have we were showing maybe 55 models. I as I say we have 2,000 models. But let's what what happened October 21st, 1957. Well, first of all, the 5day average of New York Stock Exchange was the highest in 375 days. Sometime in the past 20 days, that means that we're in a regime of high volume. Number one. Okay. A regime of high volume. Make sense to you? Markets always generate highest volume in in a year and a half. So, we're in a regime of high volume. The S&P 500 made a 60-day new low. The S&P had declined 12% into the low into the today's low. Up volume as a percent of New York stocks in total volume, which I just showed you in the histogram, was at 45 was below was at minus 45%. And we have what we call a reverse breath thrust. 5day advanced declines in the S&P 500 was between 0.35 and 0.39. We call that a reverse breath thrust. Now, it happened right here in 1957. Let's look at the history. It happened. This is the signal. The green means it's part of our model. In other words, it it's signal on this date. And this this what we're showing you now is part of that model. The signal again is 626 1962. Again, the model goes long for the same reason, same signal. You notice in this case, the market gained 14% before the next 10% correction, but 79% before the next 12% correction. So, this is a great long-term buy signal. September 20th, 2001. This is not We actually got long on September 19th with a different signal, but in this case, the market was up 19% over 73 days in a bare market rally. So, not every signal we get is going to lead to a major bull market, but in this case, it led to a 19% gain in 73 days. It happened to have been a rally in a bare market, but it's a very strong rally, which we can capitalize on. >> It signal on December 24th, 2018, which was um uh uh I think it was uh one day after the low. No, it's actually the day of the low and um in in this case the market gained 44% before the next 12% correction. So, and then it signal this signal April 8, 2025. The reason we didn't highlight it in green because this doesn't go in our model for that date because we got a buy signal on April 4th through a different model. I'm trying to show this one model in 1957 has given us a signal in 1962 and a signal in 57. But the subsequent signals we didn't act upon because we already long the market prior to this signal based on other models. >> Got it. >> Got it. So this is the first model. Let's go to the next date. November 1st, 1960. Okay. The market had declined 13.85% into its low. And let's see what happened over there. Over here you had the S&P was down 10% and it bottomed 5 days ago. Never made a lower low. Point number one, we do a day count. S&P corrects down 10% [snorts] and it hasn't gone lower for five days. Is that a bottom or is that just a uh may may will decline. Let's see the next thing. The S&P was up at least 1% on the day. The S&P 5day rate of change. In other words, in those five days off the low, the S&P had its greatest return in 90 days. New York Stock Exchange was up on the day on increasing volume. Volume was up on the day and the S&P was down into the low five days ago, seven out of seven days. Remember, we showed the count of days. This has occurred a number of times in the past. It occurred in 111960 which is a buy signal. July 3rd 1962 we don't list it as a model signal because we were we got long earlier than that date. And October 1074 we got long on October 4th 74. But the point is like for example October 1074 it was early in a bull market. They never market never made another low and the market gained 54% before it next 15% pullback. And we're going to get to modern times pretty soon. But this is another another very important one. June 262. I think they had something to do with the heart attack for uh for uh Eisenhower. I don't recall exactly what the background for the metals were, but I think it had something to do with the heart attack for maybe I'm wrong about it, but I remember something like that. But um it wasn't it wasn't the Cuban missile crisis. No. Anyway, it doesn't matter what it was. We don't care about the fundamentals. What we care was the market was down 27.97% into this into this day. And we got a buy signal. Why did we get a buy signal? Well, again, the 5day average volume was at a in we were in a regime of high volume because within the last 20 days, we saw the highest 5day volume in um in a year and a half. The S&P made a new 60-day low. The the S&P 500, well, isn't this sound familiar? This is the signal we had in 1957. So, the signal we had in 1957 that got us long also got us long in 1962. No reason to review it. There's 57,62, 2001, 2018, just as before, and April 8, 2025. Let's get to it. You want to pick a a nice bare market? Do you remember? We might as well do it that way rather than go through every one. >> Sure. >> Pick one. >> Uh gosh. Um how about just the GFC? >> Let's go to 2008 market. Let's see what we got. We had a buy signal on August 8th, 2024. Uh excuse me. We had we had a buy signal on August 17th, 2007. This is in the beginning of that bare market. The Russell 2000 peaked in August. Row 2000 made a low down 10% never made a higher high. Although the S&P and the NDX and the NASDAQ made new highs into October. The the S&P peaked on October 9th and the NA the NASDAQ peaked on October 30th. We got a we we got a buy signal. Of course, we got a sell signal prior to this buy signal. Market down more than 8%. We got a buy signal on August 17th, 2007. The market was down 9.43%. We got a buy signal. Let's see what happens next. So, the market gained some 8.2 24% to the next top. So, it probably was a wash cuz we held on and we got out when it's down 8%. It was a wash. Let's continue. The When did When did you get a similar signal to the one on August 7th, 2007? You got a similar signal August 9th, 2011. Market gained 81% before the next 10% correction. Got a similar signal on August 8th, 2024. The market gained 15%. And as you can see, the median gain is 21% before the over the next year. Then on March 11, 2008, we got another signal within a bare market. The S&P had already been down 18.64%. This is when you had the bare stern crisis. We got a buy signal. And in this instance, again, the market was up 8% in 48 days. It was a wash. We got in and we got out as the market pulled back. This signal, when did this signal March 11, 2008? When did it take place in the past? It took place many times. It took place right here, 2008. It took place March 10th, 2009, which was the bottom of the bare market in 2009, which is the great financial crisis. It occurred in April uh February 12th, 2016. The market gained 54% before the next 7% correction. December 26, 2018. March 24th, 2020. All great times to buy stocks. Now, I didn't review what went into the signal. Let's do that. Very simple signal. Unbelievable simple signal that gives you all these great buy signals. Remember the bull market bottom, bare market bottom, bare market bottom, bare market, very simple and giving away some of the secret sauce here. To be 600 small cap stocks generated a four, four day high, highest high in four days, one day after a two-year low. Very simple. Anyone can understand it. We have five instances in history where the midcaps, the small caps were down um at a two-year low and the following day they were up to a 4-day high. That's all we need for this model. And here we go. Buy signal here. We were flat on this one. Up 69% before the next 10% correction, up 54% before the next 10% correction, up 37% before next 10% correction. And up 95.99% before the next 10 correction. Now the question you're going to ask is only five instances. That's why I started telling you we're looking for rarities. It is very rare for a market ever to make a 4-day high even after 4 day low. Very very rare for a market to make a 4-day new high one day after two-year low. When it happens, it means there's a sudden reversal of fortune call a momentum surge. And that has given us four or five great buy signals and occurring basically at the end of a bare market. So this is March 10th, 2009. the market was down 56% to the low and we got the buy signal on March 10th which is a couple days after the low actually one day after the low and then you see it then then we um we saw this on August 7th 2008 on August 17th 2000 excuse me excuse me I'm back to this I'm sorry we just went through the bicycle we had on um on on uh March 11, 2008 and we got out and then we said the next signal in the great financial crisis took place took place on March 10th 2009. What was what went into that signal on March 10th? What is the signal was? Very simple. New York Stock Exchange had 15 times as much upside volume as downside volume. Let me explain what that means. In any index, some stocks are up and some stocks are down. The stocks that are up have volume and the stocks that are down have volume. If the ratio of the volume on stocks that are up on the day is is is is uh equal to the volume stocks that are down on the day, the ratio would be 1 one. 151 means there's 15 times as much volume in the stocks that are up as the stocks that were down. So number one, you had 15 to1 upside to downside volume. Number two, the you had the New York Stock Exchange was up on the day and had greater volume than the previous day. And number three is the S&P 500 itself had 70 times more more volume in its up stocks than his down stocks. This occurred on March 10th, 2009, couple days after the great financial crisis low. And this is it also took place at 8 August 17th 1982 right before 58% gain before the next 10% correction took place in August 20th82 March of 2009 we just highlighted took place again in November 28th 2011 so the same model that worked for 2009 is working for 2011 a signal again on December 20th 2011 and December 31st 2012 with some short-term panic cell we don't know why and December 26th 2018 here advertisement and our website is www.millenbergedge.com if anyone's interested in anything more. It also seemed on October 4th, 2022. That was a very interesting low because the Russell 2000 actually peaked in June while the Fed was still tightening and the Russ 2000 exactly bottomed in June. Never made a lower low in in in um in um October. The S&P and the NASDAQ did make low lows in October. Slightly below the lows in June. We got a this model signals on October 4th, but we didn't highlight it in green because we were raising long. We got long at September 26th, the day the Russell made it secondary long. We had a buy signal on September 26th. That's where we don't highlight as part of a model. April 9th, 2025. You know, I we had many clients, institutional clients were very very nervous because the S&P was up 9% in the day and say, "Oh boy, this is like a bare market rally because some people believe that the only times the market rallied 9% of the day is in a bare market, which is totally untrue. You can see a 9% gain in a bare market or in a bull market. And in this case, the upside down volume is what told us to go long. So this particular model just to go how we look at these models we look at what is what is the greatest gain over the next 252 days after this model signals had because this model had many signals. So as you can see 56% 51 59 22 18 29 a median of 30.45% for this particular model then anyway that was a great financial crisis. I hope I I gave you some idea what we're looking at. >> Wow. No, look, so um [clears throat] it's it's clear the um immense amount of rigor that's gone into this Milton and I love the fact that you know you can look at a pattern that appears right okay it's a buy signal but you can you can then say well this is the same sort of buy signal we saw back here and here and here where it worked before. Um so a couple quick just sort of practical questions for you on this. So if somebody is trading based off of this um should they just be buying the spy buying and selling the spy? >> This this is we we we are recommending getting individual investors institutions are totally different. We have many institutional clients in a totally different picture but no sector choices just get into the SP500 you have 80% of the stocks in in New York Stock Exchange. Historically, the SP00 has moves up in bull markets. If if a capitalist system continues, should continue having bull markets. If we somehow turn into social system, you'll still have markets. They'll be but they probably more volatile. So, this model should still work. So, yes, these clients, the retail clients should not try to outsmart the model. The model is built buying the S&P 500. That's all you have to do. >> Okay? And again, I I sort of asked this earlier, but I just want to ask it again for for clarity sake. Um it is binary meaning you are binary >> you are all in or you are all out. It's not >> incremental. And I'm I I'm glad you asked that again because unlike our institutional service this model acts on the first signal. In other words, we had one we had two signals on April 4th. We had signals April 8th. On April 9th maybe had 30 signals for institutions. I may decide you know let's wait a little bit. Let's see how the market acts after you only had two signals. For retail the model is built. We're not going to use any judgment. We buy any signal, any first signal we buy. In this case, it was April 4th and actually turned out to be much better than buying after April 9th because uh it just turned out much better in as far as returns go. So yes, it's binary and we follow the first signal and you're 100% long the S&P 500 when you're long and you're 100% long treasury bills when you're not when you're out of the market. And you know, this is far in my opinion, it's certainly less riskier than the 6040 program where people are on the market all the time. You get a bond bear market, what do you do? You know, which we saw. You had a stock bare market, like what do you do? You just say, "Hey, it's 6040." You have a bond bear market, a stock bare market for the same year, you're really in trouble. This is basically saying you're diversified, which it makes a lot of sense. Be diversified because the S&P 500 is diversification. You're going to take take advantage of the great bull markets. There are many great bull markets. And we'll get you out of there before major bare market. And if we got you out early and there was no no bare market, our model will get you back in. And if they don't get you back in, the worst that happens to you is you're g you're gating three, four, 5% your treasury bills until you get the next buy signal. So it's really really a very simple easy program. And the main thing for individual investors is they don't have to worry about what the market's doing on a day-to-day basis. We'll notify them when it gets time to get out and we'll notify them when it times to get in. Right now they got in officially got in April 4th and they're sitting pretty because the market's up some uh 36 37% since April 4th. You don't have to worry because what do you if you're worried the market's going to go down 30 or 40%. Like some people say it's the first got to go down 8%. So let's wait till it goes down or 7%. Let's wait till it's down 78% and then we'll reassess and then we can get out and instead of gaining 39% off the lows, you gain 30% off the lows. Still a great trade. What what this reminds me of, Milton, is um uh Warren Buffett talks about Ted Williams as the science of hitting, right? Where where where Ted Williams kind of knew is in in his entire batter's box which areas he had the best uh chances of of of hitting the ball. And you know, Ted Williams would say basically my job is to wait until the pitcher pitches a ball right where I want it to be. Now, what Warren Buffett says is the problem with with Ted is that, you know, um he he could he could have strikes, so he might have to swing at a ball that's not perfect, where Warren Buffett said, "I don't have that pressure. I can let 10,000 balls go past me until I see the right one." Your model basically says, "Hey, we're looking at all the extremes, the the real outliers that give us really high confidence that if we swing, it's going to be a good swing." Um, and those don't happen all that often as you said here. So, like you're just waiting for the the the the fattest, most obvious, highest probability win pitch and you're only swinging when it's in that perfect sweet spot of your batters box. >> Exactly. That's just half the story. Remember, waiting for that swing and what? Waiting for that pitch. And once you get that pitch, in other words, imagine if if Ted Williams is swinging, he got the right pitch and for the next 15 seconds before the ball goes in the stands, he's worried. What if it collapses? What if a hurricane? No. Once he once he got off the bat, you already know that it's going to go over the fence. You see scientifically, [clears throat] this is exactly how this works. Once you get this combination of indicators at a market low, you know the market's going to rally. You don't have to worry about whether it'll rally. You don't have to worry when it starts turning down or when to get out. You don't and and that's really the the thing behind it. Wait for the fat pitch. But once you get that pitch, you don't have to worry that maybe the market will will decline because if it declines, you get out. But based on probability, the market should go up as I showed you in the in various uh various uh now I want to point something out because I don't want I don't want to give a false impression because we have a a large institutional client base. We're charging our retail our in individual investors $10 a month because I like to get up to 100,000 clients. So we're g making very basically giving away all this research. But I want to point out something very very important and that is that institutional investors get far more than the than the individual investors going to get. And let me show you what I mean. If we have a another couple of minutes, I'm going to show you what what we have for the institutions because I'm sure there's some institutional investors watching this and say, "Oh, I'm going to sign this for $10 a month." Yes, but they're not going to get what we give our our institutions. First of all, institution, we give sectors. We have a long only portfolio, which I will show you in a minute. But let me show you what exactly what I want to point out. Each of these dates represents a date that a model signaled. And I want to show you something. So we this model was built on 50 indicators. 50 models. Not even 50. 45 models. We I said we have nearly 2,000 models. Let's just pick it. Let me just show you what happened lately in April just to give you an idea. Okay. See all dates? See the hundreds of dates to 1957. All legitimate buy signal dates. I'm going to show you what happened in April. See the April 4th. This is this. We clicked on April 4th and we got this chart. There's a signal. Okay. >> Mhm. >> I'm going to click on I'm going to click on April 7th. And we have Yeah, we have two signals on April 7th. I'll click them both. You see took on April 7th. It's unfortunate I can't screen the screen. Oh, I could. Yeah, it doesn't work. Screen on April 9th. Just to let you know, I'm going to open up all the signals for April 9th. You can see them as they open up. These are all new all signals. We have about 30 signals like you see. >> Yep. I see them popping in. Yep. >> See that? The model was built using only one signal for each market bottom. For institution, we have signals at the bottom. We have confirming signals all taking place within roughly 10 days of a low, before a low or after a low. We have signals and more signals and confirming signals. And that's, you know, basically we're holding hands for the institutions. But for the retail client, all they're going to get is that one buy signal. you hold on and hold the S&P till you get a sell signal. I mean this is very robust data very we did a very very serious work for this but uh as I say we share most of our research with the institutions we decided this year to start sharing with the uh with the uh retail accounts or the in individual investor accounts and that's why we created these models but I'm just opening more and more just for just the signal April 4th each each signal is different than the prior one you see just to show what we have if I could spread the sheet a little differently be a little better you see you go to a place like the the most signals we ever got on any days was at the lower 1982 too, you know, starting on August uh 10th, 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th, 1982. That's when the great bull bull market began. And then we have probably um I'd say over 200 250 signals during that period. So, basically, I I hope I've done a good job and tried to explain what we've been doing. >> All right, Milton. Well, look, um let me get to the most important question then. So, um for people who are the light bulbs gone off, they've said, "Okay, Milton's built this amazing model." uh you know institutions have benefited from this in the past but now he's got a retail version of this and honestly it is an incredibly easy one for me to follow because I basically just sign up for 10 bucks a month um and I kind of just go about my life and then every couple quarters every year or so >> a report we write a report twice a month >> okay you write a report twice a month >> right and if we get a a buy signal or sell signal within the week we immediately will notify the clients along with institutional clients, but we'll be getting the date anyway. >> Yeah. So, as a client, I'll I'll get But the key thing is I can read your your monthly reports as they come out. But from a trading perspective, I just go about my life until I get an alert that says, "Hey, we we just triggered a buy signal or a sell signal." And it doesn't happen very often as your chart showed, right? Maybe two, three times a year, maybe none at all in a year. >> No, on average, one one trade over a year and a quarter. An average. >> One trade over a year and a quarter. Okay. So, it's it's again very easy. You can go live your life and then just trade when when the model says to. So, um 10 bucks a month. I think you put the URL up earlier, but I just want to make sure folks know clearly where to go if they're interested. What URL should they go to? >> It should be www. miltonbergedge.com, I believe, is what it is. >> And and Milton, when I edit this, I'll put the URL up on the screen so folks know where to go. Folks, the URL will be in the description below this video as well, so you can get there with one click. Um, Milton, obviously, a lifetime of work has gone into this model. Congratulations on putting it together and making it available to the average investor here. Um, thank you so much for coming on and walking us through it. Uh, I I know it's it's new in the sense that yes, you backdated it back to the late 50s, but the model itself has only been alive for less than a year. Um but really looking forward to seeing how the future performance um goes and and hopefully it should go just as the backdated performance has gone. >> Yeah, >> exactly. Thank you. >> All right. All right, Milton. Cannot thank you enough, my friend. Um look forward to having you back on later on in the year. Um folks, please let Milton know how much you appreciate him walking us through all this by hitting the like button and then clicking on the subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next to it. Um thanks so much for coming on, Milton. Again, good best of luck with this new model and look forward to talking to you later in the year. >> Thank you. Bye-bye. >> All right, everybody else, thanks so much for watching.
It's Not Time To Sell…Yet | Milton Berg
Summary
Transcript
But to individual investor recommend stay long. No reason to get out yet. The market just made a new high a couple of days ago. You may hear people on Adam Tiger's show telling you to get out. There going to be a crash ahead. But what we telling our clients is there'll be a crash. The market go going to go down 50%. It first has to go down 7% or 8% before it gets down 50%. >> Sure. >> Clients following this this program can uh can can uh sit through a seven or eight% decline as long as they know this there's a a model that's going to get them out before it's down 50%. And that's exactly what they're trying to do. >> Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Tagert. Today, we've got the good fortune to speak with Milton Berg, founder and chief executive officer of MB Adviserss, a premier global macro research and consulting company offering investment advice to the world's largest asset managers. Now, Milton's just made his proprietary buyell model available to retail investors for the first time and he'll walk us through it today. Milton, thanks so much for joining us. Hey, it's a pleasure to see you, Milton. Um, I think we've had you on once before, at least on the Thoughtful Money channel, but great to have you back on, um, especially early in 2026. Happy New Year. I hope you had a wonderful holiday with your family. >> Um, we're off to an interesting start already here in 2026. So, why don't we just get to the meat of it right out of the gate here. Um, we'll go through your ch whatever charts you want to go through in a second, but um, at a high level, if you had to kind of pick a word or a theme to define what you expect 2026 to be like in the financial markets, what would it be? >> Unusual. >> Okay. Unusual. >> Unusual market, right? Not a regular market. >> All right. And and what are the main reasons why you picked that word? Well, basically you're seeing um uh culmination of years of speculation. Uh say gold and silver, platinum, palladium. Uh gold's up some 185% over the last few years. And the the the public is is seemingly and institutions as well are saying, "Hey, there's inflation. Let's get out. Let's get on the bandwagon, get on gold now." But Weinberg showed me that we're at the end of a of a long-term move rather the beginning of a of a move. So uh with gold and silver uh probably going to reverse with Bitcoin already in a bare market with the stock market according to some measures as overvalued as it's never been in history. Although we don't use overvaluation our work but the reality is an overvalued market is more likely to have a some hiccups of bare markets than a market that's fairly valued or undervalued. So markets worldwide and the debt situation. So I'd say be unusual. I'm not saying the market is going to go down necessarily. When markets are in the current situation, usually you see more volatility than usual. You see more corrections than usual and sometimes you see uh major bare markets in that situation. Not what we're projecting, but I just say it'll be unusual and different. >> Okay. So, we had um some great years in the markets for investors during COVID, right? Because just so much liquidity was getting shoved into the system. Um folks then got surprised in 2022. Um but then we went right back to pretty quiescent markets that just like to go up. Sounds like you're saying 2026 it's probably not likely to be nearly as quiescent. It might not be 2022 bad, but it's probably not going to be just the easy ride that we've had the past couple years. >> Well, it really depends on um what takes place during the year. I mean inflation is still high. um there is chances of recession. So it's really difficult to predict at this time exactly what will happen. That's why I use the term unusual. I'd rather not make a projection. But once we're getting to the data, my data is saying uh giving us many clear indication as to both what stocks and bonds could do as well as what gold could do. So once we get to the data, it won't be just an opinion. >> All right. Well, far be it for me to stand between the viewers of this channel and the data. So why don't we get to your slides, Milton, and I'll just let you drive. You take us anywhere you like. Well, first I want to start with um uh we have uh two types of clients. We have institutional clients who are somewhat more trading oriented. They're able to use leverage. They're able to go to sectors. We're able to go short one sector, long another sector. And now we just started a new project where we have retail retailer we call the individual investors. And individuals are more interested in the long term. So let me start with the institutional side a little bit. For the institutions um we're actually recommended to go short on December 11th. actually December 12th, December 11th at the close. On December 11th, we got a very rare uh sell short signal based on the VXN. VXN is the VIX, but it's a V VIX using the NASDAQ 100 rather than the S&P 500. So, we get is we get I don't give away the secret source here, but basically, we look at a short-term ratio to to a a a longerterm short-term ratio to see some sort of a major shift in VXN relative to its uh its short-term uh trading pattern. And this gave us a sell on December 11th. Now through yesterday's close, the S&P has only gained 0.91% 21 days past that signal. So everyone's so excited about the great 5day uh 6 day uh return we had earlier in the year. The reality was this short sale on December 11 is still very very valid. Even though the market's up 0.91%, for example, in 2021 when we got the signal on day 21, the market was up.94%. And the total decline from the date of the sell signal was 21.41%. So being up 0.91% is meaningless. We're we're short for the for our prostitutional clients. And I and if we're stopped out, we'll be stopped out. If we get 2.75% above the the close of December 11th, this trade will not have worked. But at this time, despite all the hype and everyone talking about the first five years, five days telling you what's going to happen for the rest of the year, our uh the models we look at tell us to be cautious, at least for institutional type investors who who can trade, who are watching the screens every day and and able to get in and out. So our our our official recommendation now is to be uh short the S&P 500 or whatever index you choose. That's as far as that goes. Now I say we uh we talk about the retail investors for the retail investors or we call me not really retail but we call them individual investors. A totally different story. So what we have is this. We went long. We have a model we created. I spent 10 years working on this this model. It's a model unlike anyone else in Wall Street has which I hope to demonstrate in the next couple of minutes. But basically this model began in uh we begin this model in 1957 for the S&P 500. The first question we're asked is the S&P 500 began in 1928. What kind of model starts in 1957? Well, the answer is in 1958 to 1957 there were only 90 stocks in the S&P 500 and the committee that was deciding what goes into stocks was very very slow. So stocks weren't changed that often. 1957 they raised it to 500 stocks. So now it's a a very broad index that represents 80% of the stock of the total US stock market. So we start in 1957 to create our models. The model since 1957 getting in and out generally basically we have an average of one roundtrip trade in a one and a quarter years. Again it's for individual investors. a hedge fund couldn't get away with this. But um basically since 1957 uh the average trade you buy S&P and you sell the S&P until you buy the S&P again it was an average of 1.25 years per trade and we have the battles telling us that the gain peranom was 18 and a half% this is total return including dividends relative to a buy and hold gain peranom of 10.9%. So it's a very very amazing outperformance. Now many institutions almost all institutions would be happy to have a 68 year track record of 18.5%. I don't think there is any institution that has that track record. Even Warren Buffett has sunk below it. So um it's an amazing return. So uh that's so individual investors we recommended getting long on April 4th. Again that was just a theoretical recommendation because we had we didn't start our individual investor program yet. But we started an actual account on June 1st and that account is up nearly 18% since June 1st being 100% invested in the S&P 500 through the VO rather than the SPY because the VIO has a less of a less expense ratio than the SPY does. We actually slightly slightly out from the market through yesterday by 0.3% which is fine. So we to individual vest recommend stay long. No reason to get out yet. The market just made a new high a couple of days ago. You may hear people on Adam Tiger's show telling you to get out. There's going to be a crash ahead. But what we telling our clients is if there'll be a crash, the market go down going to go down 50%. It first has to go down 7% or 8% before it gets down 50%. >> Sure. >> Clients following this this program can uh can can uh sit through a seven or eight% decline as long as they know this there's a a model that's going to get them out before it's down 50%. And that's exactly what they're trying to do. So this is um this is the first thing I want to discuss. And >> Milton, can I ask you one question about the this model that you're trading off of now? Yeah. >> Um, is it is it binary? Is it is it 100% in the S&P? >> We we believe we believe as long as America remains a capitalistic society and I can't predict the future. You never know what's going to happen 10 and 15 years down the road. But as long as America remains a capitalistic society, the stock market should continue. What has done over the years is go higher and higher and higher on a an index basis. It's up 7.9% peranom over the last say 100 years on a total return basis. It's up nearly 11% peranom. So that should continue happening. So we tell our investors the S&P 500 is the broadest index. You're not an institution. You don't have to try to pick which sector. You don't have to pick either technology or pick biotech or pick utilities. Get it 80% of the stocks of the value of the stock market is in the S&P 500. And that's where you want to be to take to take advantage of the major up moves. The problem is people don't want to see through down moves. And that's why we have the model. The model tells you when to get in. The model is very very precise, which we'll see soon, in when getting in. It's not very precise in getting out. So, what we did is I I wasn't able to model market tops as well as as as modeling market bottoms. So, we set ourself either the market's down seven or eight% no matter what the fundamentals are, we're going to get out and wait for the next buy signal. Just to point out, going back to the previous chart, you see, we show us 18.5% if you got out at 8%. you you actually have a greater return if you got out when the market's down 7%. The problem is that far too many trades. You're having one and a quarter trade peranom if you get out down 8%. You have about more than more than one trade perom if you get out at uh 70%. So basically we really favor getting out when the market's down 7% but we retain that flexibility. I'm not telling our clients that I promise you when the market's down eight 7% you'll be out because most likely you won't be out unless the market's down 8% or so. But that's not etched in stone. What is etched in stone is when we get in and we try to get in. The models are built to get in really within days of a market low. And it's been very very successful in doing that. So these are all the all this is just one chart showing all the buy signal dates since 1957. And you can see April 4th, 2025 is the last buy signal. Prior to that was November 2nd, 2023. And we'll get to the next give you a little bit bit better idea what we're doing. This is what the model has done. I'll get to what I'll get to the insides of the model very soon. Now I just want to give you the background as to what the model has done for us and exactly what goes into the model because I know everyone's going to be very skeptical when they see this this data because no one has ever created this type of a model in the stock market especially not using leverage and just using a broad index. >> So this is the we call it the edge model. Miltonberg edge is what Jennifer decided to call it and it's uh this is the yearly return relative to the S&P 500. So I I highlighted the years in which the market were down just to give a contrast. So in 1962 with the S&P down 8.83% 83% the model was up 18.55%. Basically because it was out during the bulk of the decline and got in within days of the low in 1962. Uh in 1969 the market was down 8.4% and the model was up 0.99% again outperforming. 73 there's a 7374 2-year bare market. In 73 the S&P was down 14.8% and the model was flat down 0.2%. But in 74 with the market down another 26% the model was up 20%. This is what basically should take place in bull markets. It'll do exactly what the market's doing. Let me give you an example. So in 2014 2014, the model's up 13.5%. So is the S&P. 2013 the market's up 32% and so is the model. So in an up market, you're not going to outperform the market. But when the market goes up, has either correction or a bare market goes down and you're out for even a small part of that decline and you get back in close to the low, you'll do well. Now, we all know investing advisor are told are taught to tell the clients if you miss five of the greatest days in the market in any given year, you're going to way out underperform. So, don't don't bother timing the market. That is very very true. If you miss the great up days in the year, you'll you you'll do very poorly. But you'll certainly do very very well if you miss the down days, the bulk of the down days. And as we know in any bare market, the greatest volatility doesn't take place early in the bare market. the greatest volatility takes place at the end of the bare market. So, if you're out at a seven or eight% decline in a market that's going down 20%, you will be able to uh retain some of the great losses that index investors have. And if you're getting close to the lows, you probably gain nearly all of the gains you're going to get on those uh those gloriful rallies that take place off a major low. Anyway, this is something I want to show as well, which is just the the year-over-year model and exactly what it has done for what it has done theoretically. Now, I mentioned >> Well, you sold me. Those are those are super impressive returns. >> Super impressive. I know. Be skeptical. I want hard questions. We're going to get to the get under the hood. We're not under the hood yet. Just giving the background. Just this is just a sales pitch. >> Number of trades per year for the S&P 500. S&P TU. This is the model where you you long the S&P 500. No leverage. And when you sell, you don't go short. You purchase T bills or money markets fund. And I just highlighted the years there are no trades. See 58 61 63 67 77 72 83 81 2024 20 no trades. So this is perfect for a long-term investor who doesn't want to be calling his broker every day. He doesn't be looking at CNBC to figure out when the next crash coming. He may not be so interested in listening to Adam Tang any longer because he'll know he has this kind of a program where he'll get out before bare market develop fully develops and he'll get in at the lows. Now, I know this sounds very very like I'm a charlatan or so, but we're going to now start getting in in a couple minutes, we'll get into under the hood and see exactly what's involved. As I say, I worked on this for 10 years. I think nobody else has a product even similar to this. And I uh again, my institutional investors have seen a lot of this in the past, but even for them, I only finished a model in September of this year. So, it's now sort of, you know, it's totally totally complete, but they've seen a lot of my models, but now we've systematized it a bit more. We have about 2,000 models uh for the for the indiv individual investor account. The models that we're showing were built using about 880 models, not all 2,00. And that's a reason there's reasons for that. We'll get to that later on. This is the um actual total return showing you showing the um trade by trade total return. Uh CRL L make it a little bigger. Basically, the model has gained 18.5% since 1957. a $10,000 investment in an IRA or a tax-free endowment from 1957 to uh to uh 2025 would have grown to1 bill17,896 that's the the compound [laughter] miracle miracle of compounding the S&P which has grown 10.9% which is a great return the one the 10,000 would have grown to 10 million 377654 that's not a bad return either but we're trying to do something that uh that is not expected we're trying to see returns double or triple not return double triple but the you want to see a balance after 30 40 50 years of investing in a retirement account. We want to see it 5 6 7 8 9 10 times greater than it would have been had you strictly stuck to an index fund. Uh when when the model is long while it's long the average gain is 26% when it's in it when it's when it when it's when it the average gain when it's positive is 26%. The average loss when there's a loss in the trade is 1.41%. And we'll see. Sounds sounds ridiculous. Let's continue. uh we we actually know theoretically if you have a model that if you have a model that uh goes flat when you sell you should be able to make money if you go short. So we don't not not recommending anyone to go short because it's far more volatility when you go short but using the same data using the same dates had someone started 1957 and had he um had he bought uh S&P 500 on a buy signal and rather than invest in T bills had he went short the market he would have gained rather than 18.5% peranom he would have gained 22% peranom so his $10,000 would be worth 8 bill793,23,930 78 8 billion 793,23,930 there's a P on the other hand would be up we at 11% is up is up to 13 million 12 12 13 million so point yeah I say this because theoretically as you know it doesn't make sense no model that gets you out of stocks and is successful m any model that gets you out of stocks and is successful must also be successful if you'd go short instead of going to T bills or else there's something wrong with the model that's just normal mathematic theory and I that's what I want to point out what you would have done if you go short. But we're not recommending you go short based on this model. Now, let's go a little bit further and see this. This is a the five years of I broke from 1957 to current 2025 in five year increments. So, your viewers can get an idea of exactly what the buys and sells look like. So, the first buy takes place in in early uh in in it's actually in October of 1957. Here's a sell an 8% market decline. And the market we didn't get any buy signals until right here. You see I'm going through the five years at a time. This is a 95.4% of of the long trades are profitable 18.5% peranom. So this is basically here here you got a a sell and a buy within days of each other. Market was down some 8 n 10% and we got a buy immediately after the sell. There are three instances where you got a b a sell and a buy in the same day. We don't display that. the for example I'm going to show you which one it is so you'll know just for in 2011 right here 2011 uh this decline here you see >> in 201 the market was down 7 and a half% one day by the close of it the next day was down 12 and a half% it down 5% on one day the day the low we got a we get a we get a buy signal on the day low actually we show it here it's a buy signal but but no this is not 2011 yeah this is this is 2011 this is not the right day 20 I'm Right. Then we did get a buy signal. That was a great trade. We're talking about a 2015, which is the next next chart. I'm sorry. This is it. See, we 2000 from here to here. The market was down from 12% yet we didn't get a sell. >> Why didn't you get a sell? If we're going to sell every 8%, why did we not get a sell? The reason is because this decline of 12%, we got a buy signal right here. So then the count starts again, the market rallies, and you wait for the next 8% which is right here. This is a very important thing I'm pointing out. We got a we should have got a sell signal here on on August 24th, 2015. The market went from down 78% to down 12%. But we didn't get a sell signal because we got a buy signal and that's why the next sell signal doesn't take place until January of 2016. I want to get that behind us and let's continue further. But basically, the point of this slide is just to show how this model works in real time, showing you the buys and the sells. And we can go to where we are now. The last buy signal was on April 4th, 2025, one day before the low. So this you most of the buy signals take place after the low because the models most of the models do not base themselves on oversold based on a rally often oversold. But when there's very very major oversold conditions, we can get a rally a rally. We get a buy signal before a low. Another instance of a buy signal before the low was in 2020. The market the we got the buy signal one day before the low. the market was down 7% the next day, but had you bought the day after that 7% declined, you you would you wouldn't your return would have been lower than getting in the day before the low because the market was up more than 7% on that day. So, this is basically a picture of how this works. It's just a mechanical I could have made this up. How do we know what's even true? Right? We never know. Plenty of charlatans in this business of plenty people who claim to have a model, but they really can't show what's what's under the hood. We're going to try to show next what's what's under the hood. First I want to say the logic how we've been published in the in the journal of of technical analysis and this I think I may have had this chart in that report. It goes back about at least 15 10 or 15 years ago. We look for r rarities. We don't look for crossing of moving averages which happens you know often. We don't look at uh necessarily what the Fed is doing. We look for rarities in the data. For example this is a histogram of the VIX. It shows the number of days in a row. Okay. VIX was up two days in a row 11.9% of the time. It was down two days in a row 13 12% at a time. If you look if you 5 days uh decline at 4 days up that means it's more than 60 70%. We're looking for instances where the VIX is down 9 days in a row or up nine days in a row 0.02% 0.07%. So point number one is we're not going to our models are not going to no not one of our models are going to call every top or call every bottom. We've created numerous models that have been built to call three, four, five, six, seven bottoms. They've been uh 50 55 bottoms since since um 1957. But we're looking for rarities. We're not looking for generalizations. We're looking for things that only take place only take place at at market generally for the for the model. We're looking for the things that generally only take place at market lows. Let me give you another histogram because this is an actual the mixed days in a row. It doesn't go into our model. I just show for illustration purposes, but this is one of our models. We we coded it ML35MA BN35, which is basically on a five-day basis, you're looking at net up volume versus total New York Stock Exchange volume. Okay? And any in any index, whether it's New York Stock Exchange or the S&P, some stocks are up and some stocks are down. The stocks that up have volume and the stocks that are down have volume. We're looking for extreme volume in the stocks that are declining relative to the stocks that are advancing relative to total volume. So we're looking for periods where the the numbers are 55 60 - 55% - 60 - 65 or on a thrust off a low. We're looking for these kind of numbers. These numbers in the middle are meaningless to us. So while most we can't give an opinion on the market every day. our opinion which he started out saying is individual investors should remain long not because something that's happening today should remain long because we got a m we got a major buy signal on April 4th and there's no reason to sell the market hasn't even corrected five six or 7%. So the most pundits out there are trying to say, "Oh, something happened today. It's affecting the market." No, what affects the market is what happens at major lows and what happens at major peaks. We had a major low. You had record oversold in April on April 4th. You had everyone worried about the Trump tariffs. Everyone thinking we're headed for a recession or depression. I mean, great economists were was dissing this market, dissing the economy. But we got buy signals. So the reason we're bullish now is not has nothing to do with what's happening now. Nothing to do with it at all. We're bullish now because the market gave bullish signals on April 4th and April we actually had 80 signals in April alone. We have over 100 signals in April and May which the institutions get to see the individual investors don't get to see but that is why we're still bullish now. Now why am I uh I started the first slide showing the VXN sell signal that sell signal may just give us a correction of of of 10 or 11 or 12% and it may not even work. I don't know if that signal is going to work but institutions we're trying to get better than we do with this model for individual investors. So this is the history game. Now we're going to try getting into the the meat and potatoes. If you're ready for that, unless you have any questions, Adam, >> serve up the steak, buddy. >> There you go. This is it. This is it. We said there were 55 buy signals [snorts] since 1957. I prepared this to show all 55. We're not going to have time to show all 55, but we'll do the best we can. We'll start with the first one, which is right here. October 21st, 57, we got a buy signal. The market gained 85% before the next 15% correction. gained 55% before the next 7% correction. Okay, great. Now, what what do we get this buy signal? What happened? This is this is the model. Now, I want to point out, Adam, I don't go around telling everybody what's in my model, but here we have I have an incentive because we're trying to get clients in the first we just went public with this retail letter few days ago. We have over a thousand clients. So, we want to get up to maybe 100,000 clients through this uh through the through uh these kinds of presentations. So, we're going to show a little bit of what we have. We have we were showing maybe 55 models. I as I say we have 2,000 models. But let's what what happened October 21st, 1957. Well, first of all, the 5day average of New York Stock Exchange was the highest in 375 days. Sometime in the past 20 days, that means that we're in a regime of high volume. Number one. Okay. A regime of high volume. Make sense to you? Markets always generate highest volume in in a year and a half. So, we're in a regime of high volume. The S&P 500 made a 60-day new low. The S&P had declined 12% into the low into the today's low. Up volume as a percent of New York stocks in total volume, which I just showed you in the histogram, was at 45 was below was at minus 45%. And we have what we call a reverse breath thrust. 5day advanced declines in the S&P 500 was between 0.35 and 0.39. We call that a reverse breath thrust. Now, it happened right here in 1957. Let's look at the history. It happened. This is the signal. The green means it's part of our model. In other words, it it's signal on this date. And this this what we're showing you now is part of that model. The signal again is 626 1962. Again, the model goes long for the same reason, same signal. You notice in this case, the market gained 14% before the next 10% correction, but 79% before the next 12% correction. So, this is a great long-term buy signal. September 20th, 2001. This is not We actually got long on September 19th with a different signal, but in this case, the market was up 19% over 73 days in a bare market rally. So, not every signal we get is going to lead to a major bull market, but in this case, it led to a 19% gain in 73 days. It happened to have been a rally in a bare market, but it's a very strong rally, which we can capitalize on. >> It signal on December 24th, 2018, which was um uh uh I think it was uh one day after the low. No, it's actually the day of the low and um in in this case the market gained 44% before the next 12% correction. So, and then it signal this signal April 8, 2025. The reason we didn't highlight it in green because this doesn't go in our model for that date because we got a buy signal on April 4th through a different model. I'm trying to show this one model in 1957 has given us a signal in 1962 and a signal in 57. But the subsequent signals we didn't act upon because we already long the market prior to this signal based on other models. >> Got it. >> Got it. So this is the first model. Let's go to the next date. November 1st, 1960. Okay. The market had declined 13.85% into its low. And let's see what happened over there. Over here you had the S&P was down 10% and it bottomed 5 days ago. Never made a lower low. Point number one, we do a day count. S&P corrects down 10% [snorts] and it hasn't gone lower for five days. Is that a bottom or is that just a uh may may will decline. Let's see the next thing. The S&P was up at least 1% on the day. The S&P 5day rate of change. In other words, in those five days off the low, the S&P had its greatest return in 90 days. New York Stock Exchange was up on the day on increasing volume. Volume was up on the day and the S&P was down into the low five days ago, seven out of seven days. Remember, we showed the count of days. This has occurred a number of times in the past. It occurred in 111960 which is a buy signal. July 3rd 1962 we don't list it as a model signal because we were we got long earlier than that date. And October 1074 we got long on October 4th 74. But the point is like for example October 1074 it was early in a bull market. They never market never made another low and the market gained 54% before it next 15% pullback. And we're going to get to modern times pretty soon. But this is another another very important one. June 262. I think they had something to do with the heart attack for uh for uh Eisenhower. I don't recall exactly what the background for the metals were, but I think it had something to do with the heart attack for maybe I'm wrong about it, but I remember something like that. But um it wasn't it wasn't the Cuban missile crisis. No. Anyway, it doesn't matter what it was. We don't care about the fundamentals. What we care was the market was down 27.97% into this into this day. And we got a buy signal. Why did we get a buy signal? Well, again, the 5day average volume was at a in we were in a regime of high volume because within the last 20 days, we saw the highest 5day volume in um in a year and a half. The S&P made a new 60-day low. The the S&P 500, well, isn't this sound familiar? This is the signal we had in 1957. So, the signal we had in 1957 that got us long also got us long in 1962. No reason to review it. There's 57,62, 2001, 2018, just as before, and April 8, 2025. Let's get to it. You want to pick a a nice bare market? Do you remember? We might as well do it that way rather than go through every one. >> Sure. >> Pick one. >> Uh gosh. Um how about just the GFC? >> Let's go to 2008 market. Let's see what we got. We had a buy signal on August 8th, 2024. Uh excuse me. We had we had a buy signal on August 17th, 2007. This is in the beginning of that bare market. The Russell 2000 peaked in August. Row 2000 made a low down 10% never made a higher high. Although the S&P and the NDX and the NASDAQ made new highs into October. The the S&P peaked on October 9th and the NA the NASDAQ peaked on October 30th. We got a we we got a buy signal. Of course, we got a sell signal prior to this buy signal. Market down more than 8%. We got a buy signal on August 17th, 2007. The market was down 9.43%. We got a buy signal. Let's see what happens next. So, the market gained some 8.2 24% to the next top. So, it probably was a wash cuz we held on and we got out when it's down 8%. It was a wash. Let's continue. The When did When did you get a similar signal to the one on August 7th, 2007? You got a similar signal August 9th, 2011. Market gained 81% before the next 10% correction. Got a similar signal on August 8th, 2024. The market gained 15%. And as you can see, the median gain is 21% before the over the next year. Then on March 11, 2008, we got another signal within a bare market. The S&P had already been down 18.64%. This is when you had the bare stern crisis. We got a buy signal. And in this instance, again, the market was up 8% in 48 days. It was a wash. We got in and we got out as the market pulled back. This signal, when did this signal March 11, 2008? When did it take place in the past? It took place many times. It took place right here, 2008. It took place March 10th, 2009, which was the bottom of the bare market in 2009, which is the great financial crisis. It occurred in April uh February 12th, 2016. The market gained 54% before the next 7% correction. December 26, 2018. March 24th, 2020. All great times to buy stocks. Now, I didn't review what went into the signal. Let's do that. Very simple signal. Unbelievable simple signal that gives you all these great buy signals. Remember the bull market bottom, bare market bottom, bare market bottom, bare market, very simple and giving away some of the secret sauce here. To be 600 small cap stocks generated a four, four day high, highest high in four days, one day after a two-year low. Very simple. Anyone can understand it. We have five instances in history where the midcaps, the small caps were down um at a two-year low and the following day they were up to a 4-day high. That's all we need for this model. And here we go. Buy signal here. We were flat on this one. Up 69% before the next 10% correction, up 54% before the next 10% correction, up 37% before next 10% correction. And up 95.99% before the next 10 correction. Now the question you're going to ask is only five instances. That's why I started telling you we're looking for rarities. It is very rare for a market ever to make a 4-day high even after 4 day low. Very very rare for a market to make a 4-day new high one day after two-year low. When it happens, it means there's a sudden reversal of fortune call a momentum surge. And that has given us four or five great buy signals and occurring basically at the end of a bare market. So this is March 10th, 2009. the market was down 56% to the low and we got the buy signal on March 10th which is a couple days after the low actually one day after the low and then you see it then then we um we saw this on August 7th 2008 on August 17th 2000 excuse me excuse me I'm back to this I'm sorry we just went through the bicycle we had on um on on uh March 11, 2008 and we got out and then we said the next signal in the great financial crisis took place took place on March 10th 2009. What was what went into that signal on March 10th? What is the signal was? Very simple. New York Stock Exchange had 15 times as much upside volume as downside volume. Let me explain what that means. In any index, some stocks are up and some stocks are down. The stocks that are up have volume and the stocks that are down have volume. If the ratio of the volume on stocks that are up on the day is is is is uh equal to the volume stocks that are down on the day, the ratio would be 1 one. 151 means there's 15 times as much volume in the stocks that are up as the stocks that were down. So number one, you had 15 to1 upside to downside volume. Number two, the you had the New York Stock Exchange was up on the day and had greater volume than the previous day. And number three is the S&P 500 itself had 70 times more more volume in its up stocks than his down stocks. This occurred on March 10th, 2009, couple days after the great financial crisis low. And this is it also took place at 8 August 17th 1982 right before 58% gain before the next 10% correction took place in August 20th82 March of 2009 we just highlighted took place again in November 28th 2011 so the same model that worked for 2009 is working for 2011 a signal again on December 20th 2011 and December 31st 2012 with some short-term panic cell we don't know why and December 26th 2018 here advertisement and our website is www.millenbergedge.com if anyone's interested in anything more. It also seemed on October 4th, 2022. That was a very interesting low because the Russell 2000 actually peaked in June while the Fed was still tightening and the Russ 2000 exactly bottomed in June. Never made a lower low in in in um in um October. The S&P and the NASDAQ did make low lows in October. Slightly below the lows in June. We got a this model signals on October 4th, but we didn't highlight it in green because we were raising long. We got long at September 26th, the day the Russell made it secondary long. We had a buy signal on September 26th. That's where we don't highlight as part of a model. April 9th, 2025. You know, I we had many clients, institutional clients were very very nervous because the S&P was up 9% in the day and say, "Oh boy, this is like a bare market rally because some people believe that the only times the market rallied 9% of the day is in a bare market, which is totally untrue. You can see a 9% gain in a bare market or in a bull market. And in this case, the upside down volume is what told us to go long. So this particular model just to go how we look at these models we look at what is what is the greatest gain over the next 252 days after this model signals had because this model had many signals. So as you can see 56% 51 59 22 18 29 a median of 30.45% for this particular model then anyway that was a great financial crisis. I hope I I gave you some idea what we're looking at. >> Wow. No, look, so um [clears throat] it's it's clear the um immense amount of rigor that's gone into this Milton and I love the fact that you know you can look at a pattern that appears right okay it's a buy signal but you can you can then say well this is the same sort of buy signal we saw back here and here and here where it worked before. Um so a couple quick just sort of practical questions for you on this. So if somebody is trading based off of this um should they just be buying the spy buying and selling the spy? >> This this is we we we are recommending getting individual investors institutions are totally different. We have many institutional clients in a totally different picture but no sector choices just get into the SP500 you have 80% of the stocks in in New York Stock Exchange. Historically, the SP00 has moves up in bull markets. If if a capitalist system continues, should continue having bull markets. If we somehow turn into social system, you'll still have markets. They'll be but they probably more volatile. So, this model should still work. So, yes, these clients, the retail clients should not try to outsmart the model. The model is built buying the S&P 500. That's all you have to do. >> Okay? And again, I I sort of asked this earlier, but I just want to ask it again for for clarity sake. Um it is binary meaning you are binary >> you are all in or you are all out. It's not >> incremental. And I'm I I'm glad you asked that again because unlike our institutional service this model acts on the first signal. In other words, we had one we had two signals on April 4th. We had signals April 8th. On April 9th maybe had 30 signals for institutions. I may decide you know let's wait a little bit. Let's see how the market acts after you only had two signals. For retail the model is built. We're not going to use any judgment. We buy any signal, any first signal we buy. In this case, it was April 4th and actually turned out to be much better than buying after April 9th because uh it just turned out much better in as far as returns go. So yes, it's binary and we follow the first signal and you're 100% long the S&P 500 when you're long and you're 100% long treasury bills when you're not when you're out of the market. And you know, this is far in my opinion, it's certainly less riskier than the 6040 program where people are on the market all the time. You get a bond bear market, what do you do? You know, which we saw. You had a stock bare market, like what do you do? You just say, "Hey, it's 6040." You have a bond bear market, a stock bare market for the same year, you're really in trouble. This is basically saying you're diversified, which it makes a lot of sense. Be diversified because the S&P 500 is diversification. You're going to take take advantage of the great bull markets. There are many great bull markets. And we'll get you out of there before major bare market. And if we got you out early and there was no no bare market, our model will get you back in. And if they don't get you back in, the worst that happens to you is you're g you're gating three, four, 5% your treasury bills until you get the next buy signal. So it's really really a very simple easy program. And the main thing for individual investors is they don't have to worry about what the market's doing on a day-to-day basis. We'll notify them when it gets time to get out and we'll notify them when it times to get in. Right now they got in officially got in April 4th and they're sitting pretty because the market's up some uh 36 37% since April 4th. You don't have to worry because what do you if you're worried the market's going to go down 30 or 40%. Like some people say it's the first got to go down 8%. So let's wait till it goes down or 7%. Let's wait till it's down 78% and then we'll reassess and then we can get out and instead of gaining 39% off the lows, you gain 30% off the lows. Still a great trade. What what this reminds me of, Milton, is um uh Warren Buffett talks about Ted Williams as the science of hitting, right? Where where where Ted Williams kind of knew is in in his entire batter's box which areas he had the best uh chances of of of hitting the ball. And you know, Ted Williams would say basically my job is to wait until the pitcher pitches a ball right where I want it to be. Now, what Warren Buffett says is the problem with with Ted is that, you know, um he he could he could have strikes, so he might have to swing at a ball that's not perfect, where Warren Buffett said, "I don't have that pressure. I can let 10,000 balls go past me until I see the right one." Your model basically says, "Hey, we're looking at all the extremes, the the real outliers that give us really high confidence that if we swing, it's going to be a good swing." Um, and those don't happen all that often as you said here. So, like you're just waiting for the the the the fattest, most obvious, highest probability win pitch and you're only swinging when it's in that perfect sweet spot of your batters box. >> Exactly. That's just half the story. Remember, waiting for that swing and what? Waiting for that pitch. And once you get that pitch, in other words, imagine if if Ted Williams is swinging, he got the right pitch and for the next 15 seconds before the ball goes in the stands, he's worried. What if it collapses? What if a hurricane? No. Once he once he got off the bat, you already know that it's going to go over the fence. You see scientifically, [clears throat] this is exactly how this works. Once you get this combination of indicators at a market low, you know the market's going to rally. You don't have to worry about whether it'll rally. You don't have to worry when it starts turning down or when to get out. You don't and and that's really the the thing behind it. Wait for the fat pitch. But once you get that pitch, you don't have to worry that maybe the market will will decline because if it declines, you get out. But based on probability, the market should go up as I showed you in the in various uh various uh now I want to point something out because I don't want I don't want to give a false impression because we have a a large institutional client base. We're charging our retail our in individual investors $10 a month because I like to get up to 100,000 clients. So we're g making very basically giving away all this research. But I want to point out something very very important and that is that institutional investors get far more than the than the individual investors going to get. And let me show you what I mean. If we have a another couple of minutes, I'm going to show you what what we have for the institutions because I'm sure there's some institutional investors watching this and say, "Oh, I'm going to sign this for $10 a month." Yes, but they're not going to get what we give our our institutions. First of all, institution, we give sectors. We have a long only portfolio, which I will show you in a minute. But let me show you what exactly what I want to point out. Each of these dates represents a date that a model signaled. And I want to show you something. So we this model was built on 50 indicators. 50 models. Not even 50. 45 models. We I said we have nearly 2,000 models. Let's just pick it. Let me just show you what happened lately in April just to give you an idea. Okay. See all dates? See the hundreds of dates to 1957. All legitimate buy signal dates. I'm going to show you what happened in April. See the April 4th. This is this. We clicked on April 4th and we got this chart. There's a signal. Okay. >> Mhm. >> I'm going to click on I'm going to click on April 7th. And we have Yeah, we have two signals on April 7th. I'll click them both. You see took on April 7th. It's unfortunate I can't screen the screen. Oh, I could. Yeah, it doesn't work. Screen on April 9th. Just to let you know, I'm going to open up all the signals for April 9th. You can see them as they open up. These are all new all signals. We have about 30 signals like you see. >> Yep. I see them popping in. Yep. >> See that? The model was built using only one signal for each market bottom. For institution, we have signals at the bottom. We have confirming signals all taking place within roughly 10 days of a low, before a low or after a low. We have signals and more signals and confirming signals. And that's, you know, basically we're holding hands for the institutions. But for the retail client, all they're going to get is that one buy signal. you hold on and hold the S&P till you get a sell signal. I mean this is very robust data very we did a very very serious work for this but uh as I say we share most of our research with the institutions we decided this year to start sharing with the uh with the uh retail accounts or the in individual investor accounts and that's why we created these models but I'm just opening more and more just for just the signal April 4th each each signal is different than the prior one you see just to show what we have if I could spread the sheet a little differently be a little better you see you go to a place like the the most signals we ever got on any days was at the lower 1982 too, you know, starting on August uh 10th, 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th, 1982. That's when the great bull bull market began. And then we have probably um I'd say over 200 250 signals during that period. So, basically, I I hope I've done a good job and tried to explain what we've been doing. >> All right, Milton. Well, look, um let me get to the most important question then. So, um for people who are the light bulbs gone off, they've said, "Okay, Milton's built this amazing model." uh you know institutions have benefited from this in the past but now he's got a retail version of this and honestly it is an incredibly easy one for me to follow because I basically just sign up for 10 bucks a month um and I kind of just go about my life and then every couple quarters every year or so >> a report we write a report twice a month >> okay you write a report twice a month >> right and if we get a a buy signal or sell signal within the week we immediately will notify the clients along with institutional clients, but we'll be getting the date anyway. >> Yeah. So, as a client, I'll I'll get But the key thing is I can read your your monthly reports as they come out. But from a trading perspective, I just go about my life until I get an alert that says, "Hey, we we just triggered a buy signal or a sell signal." And it doesn't happen very often as your chart showed, right? Maybe two, three times a year, maybe none at all in a year. >> No, on average, one one trade over a year and a quarter. An average. >> One trade over a year and a quarter. Okay. So, it's it's again very easy. You can go live your life and then just trade when when the model says to. So, um 10 bucks a month. I think you put the URL up earlier, but I just want to make sure folks know clearly where to go if they're interested. What URL should they go to? >> It should be www. miltonbergedge.com, I believe, is what it is. >> And and Milton, when I edit this, I'll put the URL up on the screen so folks know where to go. Folks, the URL will be in the description below this video as well, so you can get there with one click. Um, Milton, obviously, a lifetime of work has gone into this model. Congratulations on putting it together and making it available to the average investor here. Um, thank you so much for coming on and walking us through it. Uh, I I know it's it's new in the sense that yes, you backdated it back to the late 50s, but the model itself has only been alive for less than a year. Um but really looking forward to seeing how the future performance um goes and and hopefully it should go just as the backdated performance has gone. >> Yeah, >> exactly. Thank you. >> All right. All right, Milton. Cannot thank you enough, my friend. Um look forward to having you back on later on in the year. Um folks, please let Milton know how much you appreciate him walking us through all this by hitting the like button and then clicking on the subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next to it. Um thanks so much for coming on, Milton. Again, good best of luck with this new model and look forward to talking to you later in the year. >> Thank you. Bye-bye. >> All right, everybody else, thanks so much for watching.