US Dollar Strength: The speaker argues the dollar is “crashing up,” pressuring global currencies even as the DXY looks flat due to composition and interventions.
DXY Limitations: Heavy euro/yen weighting and exclusion of key Asian currencies make DXY an incomplete proxy for true dollar dynamics.
BOJ Intervention: Japan repeatedly intervenes to support the yen near 160/USD; absent intervention, the DXY would likely be materially higher.
Asian Currencies: India’s rupee, Korea’s won, and the Philippines’ peso are sliding versus the dollar, creating severe domestic cost pressures and political risk.
Energy Importers: Countries that import commodities priced in dollars face a doom loop as weakening FX forces asset sales (gold/treasuries) to obtain dollars.
Oil Prices: Even with flat oil in USD, local fuel costs can surge when currencies depreciate, threatening consumer sentiment and economic stability.
Historical Context: The situation echoes the 1980s dollar “wrecking ball” and hints at a potential Plaza Accord 2.0 if the dollar’s strength persists.
Investor Takeaway: The key tail risk is a stronger dollar (DXY 120–130), not a crash, warranting portfolio protection against global FX stress and energy cost shocks.
Transcript
Hello fellow Rebel Capitals. Hope you're well. So, we've got big news. I know it's a holiday, but we've got big news in the dollar. Everyone's talking about the dollar crashing, and I agree. It is definitely starting to crash, but I don't know if it's crashing down. I'll explain further. And I do think this is the dollar endgame. We're starting to see it play out right in front of our eyes. But the dollar endgame, in my view, is the opposite of what most people would lead you to believe. And the proof's in the pudding. Don't take my word on it. Let me show what I'm referring to. Let's do a screen share and go right over to the DXY because most people look at the DXY. Actually, I'll go there first and foremost. Where is the good old DXY? Oh, I had it up. Well, I'll go ahead and pull it up again. Actually, maybe I can just do this. Here's the composition of the DXY. So, we've got the Euro, Japanese yen. Now, I want you to notice the euro is 57%, the Japanese yen, 13%. So, those are the biggest players. So, that's kind of how the basket of currencies is weighted versus the dollar. And that's how you get the DXY. And everyone uses the DXY as a proxy as far as how the dollar is doing. Is it appreciating versus other currencies? Is it depreciating? Is it crashing? Is it crashing down? Is it crashing up? Well, this is how they come to those conclusions. But it's a very incomplete metric. Why? You can see by looking at it. How about India? That country over there with like a billion people. Oh, that's not even included here. Or how about most? In fact, there's no Asian currencies here. I just noticed that there's no Asian currencies that are listed right now. Maybe they've got some that are just very very small fractions of the overall basket, but the main one, there's no Asian currencies. So, like, okay, that that's what half the world's population is is in Asia and nothing. you got nothing for me. So you see how this is incomplete. But even looking at the DXY, you can see that the dollar is starting to crash, but it's crashing up, not down. Now, let's go over to the DXY because I know a lot of you right about now are saying, "George, what are you talking about? The DXY is still hovering right around 99." And you're right, but let's think about what's happening underneath the surface because the devil's in the details, right? And I want to be clear before we move on. I am not saying the dollar is crashing up relative to goods and services in the United States because most people conflate the two. They think that, oh, if the dollar is crashing, that means it's crashing against other currencies and it's crashing against goods and services in the US. No, no, no. You have to compartmentalize that. Those are two completely completely completely separate things. The dollar can be going down relative to goods and services and it can be going way up relative to other currencies and vice versa. You know, usually you don't get the vice versa. Uh you get the first scenario. That's the let's say highest probable outcome. But both are definitely possible. Okay. So where did I guess I didn't pull up the DXY chart yet. So let me go ahead and do that. Just want to show you guys kind of where we are right now. 98.98. So right around 99. And if we zoom out, let's just do a year. I mean, you look at this and say, George, what are you talking about in your title? Dollar crashing. It's just in fact, it's it's almost exactly flat over the last year. Maybe even flat over the last let's do three years. N it's down. So it's down from 104 three years ago to where it is today. But if we go five years, I'll bet you it's So we go five years. Let's just go back to 2020. Yeah. I mean, in fact, 2019, you can see pulled up on the chart, we're at 98.2 and today we're at 98.9. So now I know a lot of you also are saying, "Well, George, I don't care about this because I'm an American citizen and I don't I have no interest in knowing what the dollar is doing relative to the Indian rupee. That doesn't impact my daily life at all." My friend, you would be wrong. In fact, there's nothing that Well, I shouldn't say that. The unemployment rate and things like that probably matter more, but there but this heavily heavily heavily impacts the daily life of the average Joe and Jane. Now, if the dollar goes to 105, is it really that big of a deal? Or if it goes down to 90, no, it's it's not that big of a deal. But my problem here, or what I'm trying to highlight is if the dollar goes to 110, 115, 120, and keep in mind this can happen while inflation in the United States is accelerating. And if we just look at a chart of the CPI and a chart of the DXY, in fact, let's do that. So, let's just pick this time frame when The dollar is going down right here from 2000 to let's just say 2008. So it goes down by I mean more than 30%. Look, we're right around 116 and then down here we're at 72. Huge decline in the dollar. Now during this time did we see the CPI just skyrocket? No. In fact, I think I've got that chart up right here. We can look at long-term trends, assuming that it'll obey where where why are you not obeying long-term trends, huh? That's weird. This is one of my favorite websites. Don't tell me this is down. There we go. Okay, cool. So, the red line is inflation. Let's zoom in on the time frame that we're focusing on. And that would be 2000 to 2008. We go 2000 2008. I mean, do you see this red line just ripping higher? No, it's flat. It's flat, but yet the dollar is crashing. The dollar on the DXY. You see? So my point here and what you can tell with the data, not just my opinion, is that there's no real correlation between the DXY and the inflation rate in the United States, but yet so many people think that those are effectively one and the same. Okay, so now that we know where the dollar is, let's go back to this. George, why are you naming this video that the dollar, you know, the endgame is here and that it's crashing up and all this stuff. When we look at this chart and it looks pretty darn flat. In fact, you look at the chart going back I mean to 1990 now, excuse me, 1987 and we're at 97.9. It's pretty much flat for what was that 35 years. How can you say this is the dollar endgame? Here's what I'm talking about. Let's go back to that basket of the DXY. Highlight this Japanese yen. Now, most of Americans really don't pay attention to what's happening in Japan right now, but the BOJ, the Bank of Japan, is intervening in FX markets to prop up the yen. So I know a lot of people hear that XYZ country is having to defend its currency. You know India right now they're having to defend their currency. And I don't know that the retail investor really connects those dots. Like I don't know that they realize that when India is defending its currency, what they're doing is they're defending their currency against the dollar. They're not defending it against nuclear weapons. They're not defending it against Putin. They're not defending the Indian rupee against the Philippine peso. They're defending it against the dollar. And they're defending their currency from plummeting, from crashing against the dollar. So my point here is Japan is doing the exact same thing. So, let's go over to where the yen is right now relative to the dollar, go to FX, and you see we're at 158.9. So, this 158.9 meaning 158 yen to the $1, this is used in that calculation for the DXY. And based on this number is how you get to the DXY right now being at basically 99. But what if this number changes? Well, then you'd say, George, the DXY would change and you would be correct. Now, would it change massively? Nah, not really. Because at the end of the day, this is what 13% of the overall basket. But then you have to ask yourself the question, how well does the DXY actually represent what's happening with the dollar? And look, if the Japanese, let's just say the Indian rupee, if the Indian rupee is crashing against the dollar and that's not reflected in the DXY, do you think that the average Joe and Jane in India cares about that? You think the Indian government cares about that? Absolutely not. They could care less what's happening to the DXY. They just know that they got big big big big big big big big problems because their currency is plummeting versus the dollar which is why they have to defend their currency against what I think is the inevitable right so why do they have to defend it why is it bad that their currency is plummeting most people say well doesn't that give them an edge in manufacturing h a little bit but again it's trade-offs there are no solutions as Thomas soul says so think about what's happened in the United States over the last two months. Now, I haven't been back. I'm going to be back this week for Rebel Capitals Live, but for those of you who are living in the States right now, you know, gas prices have gone up and I don't know what they are. Let's just say $4 a gallon. And that's really hurting people's disposable income to the point where they're getting very frustrated. And you can see that with all the consumer sentiment data that's coming in sometimes at all-time lows going back to like the 1970s. So, and that's just because gas went up to four bucks. Okay? And why did gas go up? Because the price of oil went up went up in terms of dollars. Now, let's remember that oil price in dollars, that matters. That matters big time to people in Japan. Why does it matter? Because if the price of oil is flat, but yet the yen is plummeting relative to the dollar, the price of oil in terms of yen is going through the roof. If the price of oil in terms of yen is going through the roof solely, solely solely because the yen is crashing, what does that do to gas prices in Japan? They skyrocket. They skyrocket. And just to beat a dead horse here to make sure we're on the same page, that's even if the price of oil is flatlining in terms of dollars. And what does that do in the United States? We get social unrest. We get people that are pissed off. We get people that are voting out their local politician. Okay? Well, that's going to happen in Japan. That's going to happen in India. And if it gets really bad, they're not just going to vote them out. They're going to go to the streets with the torches and the pitchforks. So, this is why these countries come out and they're we got to defend the currency. We got to defend the currency because what they're doing is they're defending their own job in essence. So, now I want you to notice this. When we get to January of 2026, we get almost up to 160. So the and again the higher the go this goes, the more the yen is losing value relative to the dollar. The more the dollar is appreciating. Then what happens then you take this big nose dive right here. What happened? Well, the BOJ came in and intervened because they had to defend the currency, right? And then slowly but surely it goes right back here to 160. And then they intervene again. They intervene again. They intervene again. And this time, well, we just have to intervene harder. And then it comes back. And then it gets down to 156. And then what happens? Comes right back to60 or 158 where we are right now. So what's my point? My point is the whole entire market, CNBC, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Twitter, everybody on social media, they just look at the DXY as a proxy for the dollar and they look at it at 99 and they're like, whatever, no big deal. But you can't, that's not the way to look at it. You have to look at it in terms of if the BOJ would not have stepped in because you've got to look at, okay, what would the market price be? What would the market price be right now of the yen? Sure as hell wouldn't be 158. The market price right now of the yen, let's say it would be 200. If the BOJ would not have intervened, okay, what would the DXY be? Let's just assume and I don't know, you know, the exact calculation of the waiting and all that stuff, but let's just say that it goes up to 105 if the if the uh yen was at 200. Let's say it goes up to 110. Now, all of a sudden, everyone would be freaking out because the dollar is going straight up and everyone would be congratulating Brent Johnson and subscribing to his Substack on the milkshake theory, but but instead, nobody's paying attention. and and they should because you've got to adjust for the market price, not just the manipulated price. That doesn't tell you anything. Now, a lot of you might be saying, "Well, George, okay, fine. I get it with Japan and I get it with the DXY, but why does that really matter when we're trying to determine what's going on with the global economy? And why are you saying this is the endgame? I mean, okay, so what? The BOJ is coming in and trying to defend the currency at 160. Big deal. That's not the end game. I'm glad you asked because now let's go over to a chart of the Indian rupee and you can see why they're defending their currency or why they're having to defend their currency. So as this chart goes up, that means the rupee is losing value to the dollar. So you go back here to 2021 and you're at 73 rupees to the $1. Fast forward to today, you're at 95 rupees to the dollar. And the trend ain't good. the trend the trend is looking real real bad if you're a politician or if you're the government in India or unfortunately the average Joe and Jane because as this chart goes up even if oil prices come down if this chart continues to go up what happens to energy prices in India they go up assuming that the dollar appreciates ates more than the price of oil comes down. So as an example, let's say the price of oil comes down by 5%. But the rupee depreciates by 10%. Okay? On net balance, the price of oil is still going up in rupees. You see how that works? So this is a huge huge problem. And they're intervening and look what it's doing. It's not doing anything. like it comes down for like a day then just blows it off and like okay f you I'm depreciating further. So now let's assume for a moment that and this is not exact math or numbers here. I'm just using round uh I'm just trying to use these for the sake of the example. Okay, just so everyone's on the same page. So assume that by going from 84 to 95 the price of gas in India has gone from the equivalent of whatever let's say $3 a gallon up to $5 a gallon. Okay. Well, that's if it goes from 84 to 95. Look at the trend. And this is with intervention. What happens if you go from 95 to 120? What happens to the price of gas? Okay, now you're at eight bucks when you were at three like 6 months ago. Think about if that would happen in the United States. If gas went from $3 a gallon to $8 a gallon within the span of six months, I I mean, it would be anarchy. I mean, it would be complete and total chaos. I I mean, it would implode the economy. I don't think there's You could take the biggest biggest bull on Wall Street or on social media and ask them, "Hey, if gas went up to $8 a gallon, national average in the United States, what would that do to the economy?" Even the biggest bull would say, "Yeah, we're going to have a recession. We're going to have a big big big recession. It's going to be ugly." So you can see why this is such a massive problem. And why is this happening? It's happening because of the way the monetary system is structured. And what that means is no matter how much the central banks intervene and try to defend the currency, they're just simply kicking the can down the road. And it's not a matter of if. It's only a matter of when. when the dollar takes them out is what I'm talking about. And how does this impact the Joe and Jane, the average Joe and Jane in the United States? Because if the dollar takes out all these trading partners for the United States, that's inevitably going to impact the US economy. Now, let's go over to the Korean one because that's another obviously big big uh economy. And if we zoom out to a year, you see the exact same thing. I mean, not as bad as India. Well, I mean, you're close. You're getting close. This is the five-year chart. And look at the max. So, you're right back where you were in 2008 where I don't know what happened here. That's weird. Huh. That is bizarre. That wasn't due to the dollar. That must have been something. The Korean government must have devoured for some reason there because that that's not a move that you saw in the dollar with other currencies. What I'm referring to. So that that was some sort of government intervention right there, I would assume. But then you look at the low point here and it's just it's straight up. And then just zoom in on the five-year chart. looks very similar to what you see in India. This is a big big problem for the reasons we just discussed. And then going back to the Japanese yen, no one can say that the Japanese economy doesn't matter or that wouldn't impact the US economy. And if we look at the 5-year chart there, they're looking not as bad, but similar, we look at the alltime chart. And wow, this was big time. Uh, man, the dollar was strong back then. And that really is the point of this video, right? So the dollar was at 251 to the yen back in 1984. And what happened? You guys remember is the plaza cord where they had to get together and governments around the world, it was mostly the US, Japan and Germany, but governments around the world had to intentionally devalue the dollar. And the United States want the dollar was just absolutely too strong and it was destroying other economies. And the United States was like, "Hey, it's getting tougher for us to manufacture anything. No one wants our products because they're just way way way too expensive. So, we got to do something." And it's it's the dollar wrecking ball. The dollar's crushing all these trading partners. And at a certain point, it crushes the United States. Not just because of the trading partners not being able to trade with the United States, but also because the US dollar is so strong that you can't you can't manufacture. I mean, you can, but it's a huge disadvantage in terms of your manufacturing base. So, since that time, you know, it goes down here, we bottom out, but then you're just going straight back up to the point where without this intervention, you'd probably be right back up here. And if you're doing a Plaza Accord at 250, like what are you doing at 200, the point is you're getting close. And that's why in the thumbnail it says the dollar reset. But it's not just India and Japan. Let's go over to the Philippines. And there's I that it's not like that's a micro economy. So we go let's see Philippine peso. So, let's zoom out to the 5-year chart. Look, it's the same. It's it's it's not as bad as India, but it's going in the exact same direction as India, Korea, the Philippines. So, you see what I'm saying? It's like we're completely ignoring not only what's happened within the DXY in Japan, and where the market price of the DXY would be, but then we're completely ignoring this little little little, you know, teeny weeny economy called Asia. And when when you look at what's happening in Asia, you you see, holy cow, the dollar wrecking ball is doing its thing. And the endgame, what we're seeing here when you zoom out is not the dollar crashing against these currencies. It's the dollar crashing up, not down. That's the endgame. And you can see the endgame playing out if you just look at a couple charts. I mean, look at Turkey. I I should have started with Turkey because that's kind of like the no-brainer, but if you look at Turkey, it's the exact same thing. And really, what it boils down to is the countries that have to import commodities because if you have to wow, that's that's one hell of a trend right there. It's pretty much a straight line. But when you're one of these countries that has to import all these commodities, the commodities are pricing the dollar. That ain't changing. It ain't changing anytime soon. That's for sure. So if the commodities are priced in dollars and your currency is depreciating against the dollar, you are effed. You are effed. So what you have to do is you got to sell anything on your balance sheet in order to get those dollars. And that's why Turkey, as an example, right now is selling their gold hand over fist. They're selling gold. They're selling treasuries. They're having like a garage sale with everything on the government balance sheet because they have to have the dollars because they don't have the dollars. They don't have the oil. And then that's not an option. So if you don't have the dollars, what do you have to do? You have to take your own currency to buy the dollars. And that just makes this problem worse. It's like a doom loop. So you look at all these countries are just kind of gradually it's like a black hole, right? That the the gravitational pole of the black hole is just sucking all these economies into it and just destroying them. It's just a matter of time. That black hole is the dollar and it's it's already sucked in Turkey. I look at this chart. It's sucking in Korea. It's sucking in the Philippines. Definitely sucking in India. sucking in Japan. Like, who's next? And what's what really blows my mind and why I wanted to do a video on it today is because nobody's talking about this. Like everyone's talking about interest rates going up and and people dumping treasuries and dumping the dollar and the dollar's you know losing reserve currency status and uh you know the the the the uh BRICS countries are replacing the dollar or you know all of these countries are going to uh or all these CEOs are going to uh China to meet with Trump and figure out some sort of new global monetary system because and you know the dollar is going to crash. It it's literally the opposite of what's happening. It's the opposite of what's happening. If they are going to China to try to figure out a new monetary world order, it ain't because the dollar is crashing. It's because the dollar is skyrocketing. It's because the dollar is crashing up and they got to figure out a Plaza Accord 2.0 I know because they know they've seen this movie before in the 1980s and they know how it ends. So, if you're an astute investor, you've got to see through all the noise and you've got to see through all the nonsense and you have to realize that the real problem here, the real tail risk, if you will, that you should be protecting your portfolio for is not the dollar crashing down to 70 on the DXY. It's the dollar crashing up to 120, 130. And keep in mind, if Japan wasn't playing games, we'd probably already be at 105 or 110. And then excluding all those currencies in the DXY. If you look around the globe now, with a few exceptions like Brazil and Switzerland and whatnot, but if you look around the globe, especially in Asia, you see that this endgame is playing out and just nobody's talking about it. Josh, do you know where we will be talking about this? in Orlando. >> That's right. At Rebel Capitalists Live just here in a few days. So, you guys got to get your tickets if you haven't. If you're in the area, definitely grab a ticket and swing on by. I'm super excited. I'm going there tomorrow actually because I'm going to do the PBD podcast. I don't know if you guys watched that one. Great podcast with Patrick Bet David. I'm going to be doing that Wednesday morning. I think it's live. I'm not sure. You guys can tune in for that. Then I'm heading straight up to Orlando from Fort Lauderdale, which is where Patrick Bet David's office and studios are. And uh then, you know, Friday, we got the cocktail party. We got registration. So, I'm super stoked to see all you guys there. And the speaker lineup is fantastic. I mean, here we go. Josh, do the screen share. Got Darius Dale. I I don't know if you guys I'm sure you know who Darius Dale is, but if you've seen him speak, uh you know how not only articulate he is, but how super super smart he is. And what's great about Darius is he has a little bit different view than a lot of the speakers like Brent, uh especially in terms of the dollar and what we just went over. And we got Mike Green there, definitely the smartest guy in the room. Jeff, real close to Mike. But then we got Rick commodities. We got Kenny talking about not just the problems but also the opportunities in commercial real estate. Commercial, excuse me, Hartman going to be doing the same thing with residential. And then we've got Barnes is going to be talking about freedom, obviously the number one topic of the day. And then we've got Jeff, I think he's going to be talking about gold. He's going to be talking about freedom. He was with the Mises Institute. And then everyone's favorite, Mike Maloney. I'm sure he's going to be talking about the precious metals as well. Then we've got a lot of um panel discussions. I usually lead those myself. It's going to be an incredible, incredible weekend that you're not going to want to miss. It's coming up here just in a few days. You got time to get your ticket, get your flight, and get your butt straight over to Orlando. So Josh will put a link in the chat, put a link in the description of this video. And on that bombshell, I will see you guys very, very soon. In the interim, make sure you're staying for freedom, liberty, and free market capitalism. And we'll see you in Orlando here this Friday.
It's Official…The Dollar END GAME Has Started
Summary
Transcript
Hello fellow Rebel Capitals. Hope you're well. So, we've got big news. I know it's a holiday, but we've got big news in the dollar. Everyone's talking about the dollar crashing, and I agree. It is definitely starting to crash, but I don't know if it's crashing down. I'll explain further. And I do think this is the dollar endgame. We're starting to see it play out right in front of our eyes. But the dollar endgame, in my view, is the opposite of what most people would lead you to believe. And the proof's in the pudding. Don't take my word on it. Let me show what I'm referring to. Let's do a screen share and go right over to the DXY because most people look at the DXY. Actually, I'll go there first and foremost. Where is the good old DXY? Oh, I had it up. Well, I'll go ahead and pull it up again. Actually, maybe I can just do this. Here's the composition of the DXY. So, we've got the Euro, Japanese yen. Now, I want you to notice the euro is 57%, the Japanese yen, 13%. So, those are the biggest players. So, that's kind of how the basket of currencies is weighted versus the dollar. And that's how you get the DXY. And everyone uses the DXY as a proxy as far as how the dollar is doing. Is it appreciating versus other currencies? Is it depreciating? Is it crashing? Is it crashing down? Is it crashing up? Well, this is how they come to those conclusions. But it's a very incomplete metric. Why? You can see by looking at it. How about India? That country over there with like a billion people. Oh, that's not even included here. Or how about most? In fact, there's no Asian currencies here. I just noticed that there's no Asian currencies that are listed right now. Maybe they've got some that are just very very small fractions of the overall basket, but the main one, there's no Asian currencies. So, like, okay, that that's what half the world's population is is in Asia and nothing. you got nothing for me. So you see how this is incomplete. But even looking at the DXY, you can see that the dollar is starting to crash, but it's crashing up, not down. Now, let's go over to the DXY because I know a lot of you right about now are saying, "George, what are you talking about? The DXY is still hovering right around 99." And you're right, but let's think about what's happening underneath the surface because the devil's in the details, right? And I want to be clear before we move on. I am not saying the dollar is crashing up relative to goods and services in the United States because most people conflate the two. They think that, oh, if the dollar is crashing, that means it's crashing against other currencies and it's crashing against goods and services in the US. No, no, no. You have to compartmentalize that. Those are two completely completely completely separate things. The dollar can be going down relative to goods and services and it can be going way up relative to other currencies and vice versa. You know, usually you don't get the vice versa. Uh you get the first scenario. That's the let's say highest probable outcome. But both are definitely possible. Okay. So where did I guess I didn't pull up the DXY chart yet. So let me go ahead and do that. Just want to show you guys kind of where we are right now. 98.98. So right around 99. And if we zoom out, let's just do a year. I mean, you look at this and say, George, what are you talking about in your title? Dollar crashing. It's just in fact, it's it's almost exactly flat over the last year. Maybe even flat over the last let's do three years. N it's down. So it's down from 104 three years ago to where it is today. But if we go five years, I'll bet you it's So we go five years. Let's just go back to 2020. Yeah. I mean, in fact, 2019, you can see pulled up on the chart, we're at 98.2 and today we're at 98.9. So now I know a lot of you also are saying, "Well, George, I don't care about this because I'm an American citizen and I don't I have no interest in knowing what the dollar is doing relative to the Indian rupee. That doesn't impact my daily life at all." My friend, you would be wrong. In fact, there's nothing that Well, I shouldn't say that. The unemployment rate and things like that probably matter more, but there but this heavily heavily heavily impacts the daily life of the average Joe and Jane. Now, if the dollar goes to 105, is it really that big of a deal? Or if it goes down to 90, no, it's it's not that big of a deal. But my problem here, or what I'm trying to highlight is if the dollar goes to 110, 115, 120, and keep in mind this can happen while inflation in the United States is accelerating. And if we just look at a chart of the CPI and a chart of the DXY, in fact, let's do that. So, let's just pick this time frame when The dollar is going down right here from 2000 to let's just say 2008. So it goes down by I mean more than 30%. Look, we're right around 116 and then down here we're at 72. Huge decline in the dollar. Now during this time did we see the CPI just skyrocket? No. In fact, I think I've got that chart up right here. We can look at long-term trends, assuming that it'll obey where where why are you not obeying long-term trends, huh? That's weird. This is one of my favorite websites. Don't tell me this is down. There we go. Okay, cool. So, the red line is inflation. Let's zoom in on the time frame that we're focusing on. And that would be 2000 to 2008. We go 2000 2008. I mean, do you see this red line just ripping higher? No, it's flat. It's flat, but yet the dollar is crashing. The dollar on the DXY. You see? So my point here and what you can tell with the data, not just my opinion, is that there's no real correlation between the DXY and the inflation rate in the United States, but yet so many people think that those are effectively one and the same. Okay, so now that we know where the dollar is, let's go back to this. George, why are you naming this video that the dollar, you know, the endgame is here and that it's crashing up and all this stuff. When we look at this chart and it looks pretty darn flat. In fact, you look at the chart going back I mean to 1990 now, excuse me, 1987 and we're at 97.9. It's pretty much flat for what was that 35 years. How can you say this is the dollar endgame? Here's what I'm talking about. Let's go back to that basket of the DXY. Highlight this Japanese yen. Now, most of Americans really don't pay attention to what's happening in Japan right now, but the BOJ, the Bank of Japan, is intervening in FX markets to prop up the yen. So I know a lot of people hear that XYZ country is having to defend its currency. You know India right now they're having to defend their currency. And I don't know that the retail investor really connects those dots. Like I don't know that they realize that when India is defending its currency, what they're doing is they're defending their currency against the dollar. They're not defending it against nuclear weapons. They're not defending it against Putin. They're not defending the Indian rupee against the Philippine peso. They're defending it against the dollar. And they're defending their currency from plummeting, from crashing against the dollar. So my point here is Japan is doing the exact same thing. So, let's go over to where the yen is right now relative to the dollar, go to FX, and you see we're at 158.9. So, this 158.9 meaning 158 yen to the $1, this is used in that calculation for the DXY. And based on this number is how you get to the DXY right now being at basically 99. But what if this number changes? Well, then you'd say, George, the DXY would change and you would be correct. Now, would it change massively? Nah, not really. Because at the end of the day, this is what 13% of the overall basket. But then you have to ask yourself the question, how well does the DXY actually represent what's happening with the dollar? And look, if the Japanese, let's just say the Indian rupee, if the Indian rupee is crashing against the dollar and that's not reflected in the DXY, do you think that the average Joe and Jane in India cares about that? You think the Indian government cares about that? Absolutely not. They could care less what's happening to the DXY. They just know that they got big big big big big big big big problems because their currency is plummeting versus the dollar which is why they have to defend their currency against what I think is the inevitable right so why do they have to defend it why is it bad that their currency is plummeting most people say well doesn't that give them an edge in manufacturing h a little bit but again it's trade-offs there are no solutions as Thomas soul says so think about what's happened in the United States over the last two months. Now, I haven't been back. I'm going to be back this week for Rebel Capitals Live, but for those of you who are living in the States right now, you know, gas prices have gone up and I don't know what they are. Let's just say $4 a gallon. And that's really hurting people's disposable income to the point where they're getting very frustrated. And you can see that with all the consumer sentiment data that's coming in sometimes at all-time lows going back to like the 1970s. So, and that's just because gas went up to four bucks. Okay? And why did gas go up? Because the price of oil went up went up in terms of dollars. Now, let's remember that oil price in dollars, that matters. That matters big time to people in Japan. Why does it matter? Because if the price of oil is flat, but yet the yen is plummeting relative to the dollar, the price of oil in terms of yen is going through the roof. If the price of oil in terms of yen is going through the roof solely, solely solely because the yen is crashing, what does that do to gas prices in Japan? They skyrocket. They skyrocket. And just to beat a dead horse here to make sure we're on the same page, that's even if the price of oil is flatlining in terms of dollars. And what does that do in the United States? We get social unrest. We get people that are pissed off. We get people that are voting out their local politician. Okay? Well, that's going to happen in Japan. That's going to happen in India. And if it gets really bad, they're not just going to vote them out. They're going to go to the streets with the torches and the pitchforks. So, this is why these countries come out and they're we got to defend the currency. We got to defend the currency because what they're doing is they're defending their own job in essence. So, now I want you to notice this. When we get to January of 2026, we get almost up to 160. So the and again the higher the go this goes, the more the yen is losing value relative to the dollar. The more the dollar is appreciating. Then what happens then you take this big nose dive right here. What happened? Well, the BOJ came in and intervened because they had to defend the currency, right? And then slowly but surely it goes right back here to 160. And then they intervene again. They intervene again. They intervene again. And this time, well, we just have to intervene harder. And then it comes back. And then it gets down to 156. And then what happens? Comes right back to60 or 158 where we are right now. So what's my point? My point is the whole entire market, CNBC, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Twitter, everybody on social media, they just look at the DXY as a proxy for the dollar and they look at it at 99 and they're like, whatever, no big deal. But you can't, that's not the way to look at it. You have to look at it in terms of if the BOJ would not have stepped in because you've got to look at, okay, what would the market price be? What would the market price be right now of the yen? Sure as hell wouldn't be 158. The market price right now of the yen, let's say it would be 200. If the BOJ would not have intervened, okay, what would the DXY be? Let's just assume and I don't know, you know, the exact calculation of the waiting and all that stuff, but let's just say that it goes up to 105 if the if the uh yen was at 200. Let's say it goes up to 110. Now, all of a sudden, everyone would be freaking out because the dollar is going straight up and everyone would be congratulating Brent Johnson and subscribing to his Substack on the milkshake theory, but but instead, nobody's paying attention. and and they should because you've got to adjust for the market price, not just the manipulated price. That doesn't tell you anything. Now, a lot of you might be saying, "Well, George, okay, fine. I get it with Japan and I get it with the DXY, but why does that really matter when we're trying to determine what's going on with the global economy? And why are you saying this is the endgame? I mean, okay, so what? The BOJ is coming in and trying to defend the currency at 160. Big deal. That's not the end game. I'm glad you asked because now let's go over to a chart of the Indian rupee and you can see why they're defending their currency or why they're having to defend their currency. So as this chart goes up, that means the rupee is losing value to the dollar. So you go back here to 2021 and you're at 73 rupees to the $1. Fast forward to today, you're at 95 rupees to the dollar. And the trend ain't good. the trend the trend is looking real real bad if you're a politician or if you're the government in India or unfortunately the average Joe and Jane because as this chart goes up even if oil prices come down if this chart continues to go up what happens to energy prices in India they go up assuming that the dollar appreciates ates more than the price of oil comes down. So as an example, let's say the price of oil comes down by 5%. But the rupee depreciates by 10%. Okay? On net balance, the price of oil is still going up in rupees. You see how that works? So this is a huge huge problem. And they're intervening and look what it's doing. It's not doing anything. like it comes down for like a day then just blows it off and like okay f you I'm depreciating further. So now let's assume for a moment that and this is not exact math or numbers here. I'm just using round uh I'm just trying to use these for the sake of the example. Okay, just so everyone's on the same page. So assume that by going from 84 to 95 the price of gas in India has gone from the equivalent of whatever let's say $3 a gallon up to $5 a gallon. Okay. Well, that's if it goes from 84 to 95. Look at the trend. And this is with intervention. What happens if you go from 95 to 120? What happens to the price of gas? Okay, now you're at eight bucks when you were at three like 6 months ago. Think about if that would happen in the United States. If gas went from $3 a gallon to $8 a gallon within the span of six months, I I mean, it would be anarchy. I mean, it would be complete and total chaos. I I mean, it would implode the economy. I don't think there's You could take the biggest biggest bull on Wall Street or on social media and ask them, "Hey, if gas went up to $8 a gallon, national average in the United States, what would that do to the economy?" Even the biggest bull would say, "Yeah, we're going to have a recession. We're going to have a big big big recession. It's going to be ugly." So you can see why this is such a massive problem. And why is this happening? It's happening because of the way the monetary system is structured. And what that means is no matter how much the central banks intervene and try to defend the currency, they're just simply kicking the can down the road. And it's not a matter of if. It's only a matter of when. when the dollar takes them out is what I'm talking about. And how does this impact the Joe and Jane, the average Joe and Jane in the United States? Because if the dollar takes out all these trading partners for the United States, that's inevitably going to impact the US economy. Now, let's go over to the Korean one because that's another obviously big big uh economy. And if we zoom out to a year, you see the exact same thing. I mean, not as bad as India. Well, I mean, you're close. You're getting close. This is the five-year chart. And look at the max. So, you're right back where you were in 2008 where I don't know what happened here. That's weird. Huh. That is bizarre. That wasn't due to the dollar. That must have been something. The Korean government must have devoured for some reason there because that that's not a move that you saw in the dollar with other currencies. What I'm referring to. So that that was some sort of government intervention right there, I would assume. But then you look at the low point here and it's just it's straight up. And then just zoom in on the five-year chart. looks very similar to what you see in India. This is a big big problem for the reasons we just discussed. And then going back to the Japanese yen, no one can say that the Japanese economy doesn't matter or that wouldn't impact the US economy. And if we look at the 5-year chart there, they're looking not as bad, but similar, we look at the alltime chart. And wow, this was big time. Uh, man, the dollar was strong back then. And that really is the point of this video, right? So the dollar was at 251 to the yen back in 1984. And what happened? You guys remember is the plaza cord where they had to get together and governments around the world, it was mostly the US, Japan and Germany, but governments around the world had to intentionally devalue the dollar. And the United States want the dollar was just absolutely too strong and it was destroying other economies. And the United States was like, "Hey, it's getting tougher for us to manufacture anything. No one wants our products because they're just way way way too expensive. So, we got to do something." And it's it's the dollar wrecking ball. The dollar's crushing all these trading partners. And at a certain point, it crushes the United States. Not just because of the trading partners not being able to trade with the United States, but also because the US dollar is so strong that you can't you can't manufacture. I mean, you can, but it's a huge disadvantage in terms of your manufacturing base. So, since that time, you know, it goes down here, we bottom out, but then you're just going straight back up to the point where without this intervention, you'd probably be right back up here. And if you're doing a Plaza Accord at 250, like what are you doing at 200, the point is you're getting close. And that's why in the thumbnail it says the dollar reset. But it's not just India and Japan. Let's go over to the Philippines. And there's I that it's not like that's a micro economy. So we go let's see Philippine peso. So, let's zoom out to the 5-year chart. Look, it's the same. It's it's it's not as bad as India, but it's going in the exact same direction as India, Korea, the Philippines. So, you see what I'm saying? It's like we're completely ignoring not only what's happened within the DXY in Japan, and where the market price of the DXY would be, but then we're completely ignoring this little little little, you know, teeny weeny economy called Asia. And when when you look at what's happening in Asia, you you see, holy cow, the dollar wrecking ball is doing its thing. And the endgame, what we're seeing here when you zoom out is not the dollar crashing against these currencies. It's the dollar crashing up, not down. That's the endgame. And you can see the endgame playing out if you just look at a couple charts. I mean, look at Turkey. I I should have started with Turkey because that's kind of like the no-brainer, but if you look at Turkey, it's the exact same thing. And really, what it boils down to is the countries that have to import commodities because if you have to wow, that's that's one hell of a trend right there. It's pretty much a straight line. But when you're one of these countries that has to import all these commodities, the commodities are pricing the dollar. That ain't changing. It ain't changing anytime soon. That's for sure. So if the commodities are priced in dollars and your currency is depreciating against the dollar, you are effed. You are effed. So what you have to do is you got to sell anything on your balance sheet in order to get those dollars. And that's why Turkey, as an example, right now is selling their gold hand over fist. They're selling gold. They're selling treasuries. They're having like a garage sale with everything on the government balance sheet because they have to have the dollars because they don't have the dollars. They don't have the oil. And then that's not an option. So if you don't have the dollars, what do you have to do? You have to take your own currency to buy the dollars. And that just makes this problem worse. It's like a doom loop. So you look at all these countries are just kind of gradually it's like a black hole, right? That the the gravitational pole of the black hole is just sucking all these economies into it and just destroying them. It's just a matter of time. That black hole is the dollar and it's it's already sucked in Turkey. I look at this chart. It's sucking in Korea. It's sucking in the Philippines. Definitely sucking in India. sucking in Japan. Like, who's next? And what's what really blows my mind and why I wanted to do a video on it today is because nobody's talking about this. Like everyone's talking about interest rates going up and and people dumping treasuries and dumping the dollar and the dollar's you know losing reserve currency status and uh you know the the the the uh BRICS countries are replacing the dollar or you know all of these countries are going to uh or all these CEOs are going to uh China to meet with Trump and figure out some sort of new global monetary system because and you know the dollar is going to crash. It it's literally the opposite of what's happening. It's the opposite of what's happening. If they are going to China to try to figure out a new monetary world order, it ain't because the dollar is crashing. It's because the dollar is skyrocketing. It's because the dollar is crashing up and they got to figure out a Plaza Accord 2.0 I know because they know they've seen this movie before in the 1980s and they know how it ends. So, if you're an astute investor, you've got to see through all the noise and you've got to see through all the nonsense and you have to realize that the real problem here, the real tail risk, if you will, that you should be protecting your portfolio for is not the dollar crashing down to 70 on the DXY. It's the dollar crashing up to 120, 130. And keep in mind, if Japan wasn't playing games, we'd probably already be at 105 or 110. And then excluding all those currencies in the DXY. If you look around the globe now, with a few exceptions like Brazil and Switzerland and whatnot, but if you look around the globe, especially in Asia, you see that this endgame is playing out and just nobody's talking about it. Josh, do you know where we will be talking about this? in Orlando. >> That's right. At Rebel Capitalists Live just here in a few days. So, you guys got to get your tickets if you haven't. If you're in the area, definitely grab a ticket and swing on by. I'm super excited. I'm going there tomorrow actually because I'm going to do the PBD podcast. I don't know if you guys watched that one. Great podcast with Patrick Bet David. I'm going to be doing that Wednesday morning. I think it's live. I'm not sure. You guys can tune in for that. Then I'm heading straight up to Orlando from Fort Lauderdale, which is where Patrick Bet David's office and studios are. And uh then, you know, Friday, we got the cocktail party. We got registration. So, I'm super stoked to see all you guys there. And the speaker lineup is fantastic. I mean, here we go. Josh, do the screen share. Got Darius Dale. I I don't know if you guys I'm sure you know who Darius Dale is, but if you've seen him speak, uh you know how not only articulate he is, but how super super smart he is. And what's great about Darius is he has a little bit different view than a lot of the speakers like Brent, uh especially in terms of the dollar and what we just went over. And we got Mike Green there, definitely the smartest guy in the room. Jeff, real close to Mike. But then we got Rick commodities. We got Kenny talking about not just the problems but also the opportunities in commercial real estate. Commercial, excuse me, Hartman going to be doing the same thing with residential. And then we've got Barnes is going to be talking about freedom, obviously the number one topic of the day. And then we've got Jeff, I think he's going to be talking about gold. He's going to be talking about freedom. He was with the Mises Institute. And then everyone's favorite, Mike Maloney. I'm sure he's going to be talking about the precious metals as well. Then we've got a lot of um panel discussions. I usually lead those myself. It's going to be an incredible, incredible weekend that you're not going to want to miss. It's coming up here just in a few days. You got time to get your ticket, get your flight, and get your butt straight over to Orlando. So Josh will put a link in the chat, put a link in the description of this video. And on that bombshell, I will see you guys very, very soon. In the interim, make sure you're staying for freedom, liberty, and free market capitalism. And we'll see you in Orlando here this Friday.