Major Crash Starting For Gold, Silver? What's Next After Biggest Drop In Months | Lobo Tiggre
Summary
Market Outlook: The podcast discusses the recent volatility in gold and silver prices, emphasizing the importance of taking profits amid unprecedented rallies in these metals.
Investment Strategy: Lobo Tiggre advises investors to have a system in place, such as a ratcheting stop-loss, to ensure profits are secured without being overly committed to a single investment thesis.
Silver Market Dynamics: A physical squeeze in the London silver market is highlighted as a significant factor affecting current silver prices, with implications for future market corrections.
Gold and Silver Fundamentals: Despite high prices, the fundamentals for gold and silver remain strong due to factors like central bank buying and geopolitical risks, but caution is advised as markets can correct.
Mining Sector Insights: The podcast touches on the recent performance of mining stocks, noting that while they have seen significant gains, they have not yet shown signs of leading a broader market downturn.
Copper Market Potential: Tiggre expresses strong bullish sentiment on copper, citing supply constraints and increasing demand, positioning it as a more stable investment compared to gold and silver.
Economic Indicators: The discussion includes insights into how current economic policies and geopolitical events are influencing inflation and commodity prices, with gold potentially leading future inflation trends.
Investment Caution: Emphasizing the need for an exit strategy, Tiggre warns against being overly optimistic without considering potential market downturns, urging investors to lock in gains responsibly.
Transcript
[Music] dropped 6 and a half% uh intraday before bottoming out at $50. See the floor is 50 because right at $50 uh people started buying again and pushed it back up to 5170. It's interesting. Hey, um is 50 the floor? Let me just start there. Nobody knows. But let's just talk about this uh rationally. Is 50 the new floor? You think we're talking about the incredible and historic unprecedented rallies in gold and silver and copper for that matter. The metals are just on fire. What should we do next? Loel Trey joins us today. He is the editor of the independent speculator.com. Welcome back to the show. Lobel, I can think of no better person to talk to us about the broader metals complex right now than yourself. Thank you for being here. >> No better person if only because I'm the professional rain on the parade in this business. So, >> you've been you've been warning us about taking profits, but it just keeps going up. Should we take profits? Now, I'll start with that question because I've been asked that question in my personal life, not just on this show, but people have been commenting on this exact topic at dinner parties. People who I've never spoken to about markets, and now they're asking me, "What's going on with gold? What's going on with silver? Silver's run out at Costco. Should I go buy more some elsewhere? Well, that's a that's actually worth coming back to sign of the times. You know, we've got Thanksgiving coming up and last few Thanksgivings it was, you know, all the brothers-in-law talking about the the money they made on crypto. It'll be interesting to see if this Thanksgiving we have people talking about the money they made on gold and silver. Bragging rights might tell us something about the state of the market. But to your question, uh this week as we're recording, Friday afternoon, gold and silver are off. All this week long we've been seeing that, you know, just higher highs. Gold and silver both ripping higher. Silver all the way up to 54 bucks. And then when I would say that's great, I'm long. I'm bullish. But don't forget to take profits. Nobody goes broke taking profits. I'd get all kinds of push back, especially on social media. Surprise, surprise. Oh, it's going to the moon. You know, don't bring the moon down. You're wrong. It's going straight up. Strangely, those people are absent today while we have this pullback. Um, and I think that's >> pull back. >> I'm I'm not here to say, "Haha, I was right." I I'm remember I'm I'm long. And it it's so funny how people hear or remember an interpretation rather than what you said. You can say, "I'm long. I'm bullish, but be careful." And all they remember is be careful, therefore he's a bear. Which, you know, that therefore part is made up. It's not true. But that's how people react. Anyway, the point is you asked, you know, what do we do now? What do we do here? Can you is it going higher? Is it is going to correct? The answer of course is I don't know. Nobody knows. People they they like it better if I say yes. It's going to 65 like Morgan Stanley says or was that JP Morgan that those famous gold bulls? I don't remember. Um and here's why. And here's why you got to buy. Just bye bye bye. You know pe people when they're in the bullish mode that's all they want to hear. No, we like that about you, Lobo. You're impartial. So, tell us what you think about this really dramatic selloff. Yeah. >> Yeah. So, but if if your object is to make money, you don't want to get wedded to a thesis. You want to make money, right? Yeah. You're highlighting it right now on the screen. So, you know, the answer right now is I don't know where the top is, but nobody goes broke taking profits. So, you should have a system for ensuring that your big wins don't slip through your fingers. I mean, for crying out loud, even the GDX is up triple digits this year. So, you know, you'd have to be almost trying not to make money if you were long in the monetary metal space and didn't make money so far. Great. Congratulations to us all. I'm a bull. I think it goes higher. I'm a fundamentalist. all the money printing, central bank buying, reallocation globally to gold, political risk, you know, physical security risk, all kinds of reasons. I'm I'm a bull. But that doesn't mean that something can't at the very least correct. And really with with gold well above $4,000, $4,000 and silver hitting significant all-time highs, what has been priced in? Is it a reasonable question? So, what I'm saying is I'm not selling. I'm not putting out a market top alert. I'm saying that I have something like a stop-loss, but I call it an upside maximizer. It's a ratcheting stop-loss to make sure that if any of my big wins roll over at the very least take profits or take some money off the table, the minimum would be my initial investment so that I go beyond the no point of no concern as our friend Rick Rule likes to say. Or maybe if I'm more worried about that particular company, take more than that. I could take all the profits and leave only what I started with on the table. I'd be no worse off than I started with, but I'd have, you know, a multiple of my money back in the bank where it's safe. So, when I say nobody goes broke taking profits, that does not mean I'm a bear. That does not mean I'm saying the market is peaked. I'm saying, look, you long-suffering gold and silver bulls, you've been waiting years, if not decades, for this. How bad would it be to be right, but not make any money? That's all I'm saying. Don't Don't let your big win slip through your fingers. In fact, I haven't looked at the closing price today, but I think I just got triggered on an upside maximizer I have on a big silver win, believe it or not. Um, and if that holds, then I will be going beyond the point of no concern on that stock come Monday. And you know, maybe I limit some upside that way. But David, I made money. I will not only have, you know, not be able to lose, I will not only get my money back off the table, I will have my money back off the table and a profit. And whatever happens next, you know, if if silver and gold keep going up, I'll still make more money. But if things go south for a while, correct for a while, you know, I cannot lose on that proposition. So, forgive me for pounding the table here, but I just think that there's been so much emotion in the market this week. You know, I I've had people, you know, every day that gold and silver ticked up this week. I had somebody say, "Hey, I wrote to you Monday and I said it was going higher." Okay, fine. Well, I'm not hearing from those people today. And so please dear audience you know put aside your feelings for a moment try to take a deep breath and think about what we know what we don't know what we guess what we hope and how we can employ rational strategies to make sure that we make money in these markets and and not just you know uh waste opportunities >> dropped 6 and a half% uh intraday before bought out at $50. See, the floor is 50 because right at $50, uh, people started buying again and pushed it back up to 5170. >> It's interesting. Hey, is 50 the floor? Let me just start there. Nobody knows. But let's just talk about this uh rationally. Is 50 the new floor, you think? >> No. Let me expound. I just wanted to let that sink in for a moment so all the people get out the rotten tomatoes and get ready to throw them at Darth Silver here. In fact, I was prepared for this. Darth Silver sent us not the floor. Um, but fortunately, the tomatoes are delayed over the internet. So, I can finish what I'm saying here. We've had a special circumstance in the silver market. The backwardation that I think you've discussed with other guests or people out there have noticed where the spot price is higher than the futures price. That's really interesting. And it has a specific cause over in London where there is an actual silver squeeze going on. It I find it very amusing that, you know, silver bulls have have tried to engineer a silver squeeze and and and make the shorts suffer for their positions and and Donald Trump has achieved this actually this year. I think completely inadvertently that the tariffs and all that gold and silver bullion that got shipped from London to to New York and Chicago got shipped to the US that's actually produced a physical shortfall in London now at a time of need. So uh there is an actual squeeze going on and that's why in my view spot silver went ahead of spot futures this week. Why spot silver hit 54 where the futures haven't yet. Um, and there's good news and bad news here. You know, the bad news is that if that gets sorted out in the near term, which I don't think today's price action shows, I think today's u price action because it's gold and silver is a reaction to broader economic inputs. Um, this is important because if silver got an extra tailwind, an extra boost from this squeeze in London, that will be sorted out at some point. And what I really like about this, I think this is a good thing, it's not just that the squeeze is on and the shorts deserve to be squeezed. And okay, I agree with that. I I can have a little uh shod and frea there. But the reason why this is important is because even you know your most diehard gold and silver bulls will tell you that silver usually lags at the beginning of a bull market and then more than catches up at the end. So if silver shooting up to 54 was be the beginning of silver catching up with gold that would actually be a signal that this bull market is close to an end. And I don't agree with that. I, you know, as a fundamentalist looking at the market, looking at the money printing, the central banks and the people rotating, all these other things going on, you know, the the geopolitical risk, I don't think we're near the top of this market. And it was worrying me that silver was starting to catch up to gold before I thought it should have. So, if the reason for that is this London uh silver squeeze, then I feel better. It's not really silver catching up to gold as a monetary metal. It's something specific to the silver market that's happening now. So if we see silver correct more than gold in the near term, uh there is a forgive me for saying it silver lining to that because I think it it it will support my thesis and my hope that we'll see a more stable steady climb for years to come. David, I'm I I expect to be a bull in the space for years to come. Not a permable, but years to come. So the latest uh market action and my interpretation of this physical squeeze in London I think supports that thesis. But for all those people who are saying no no this is it. Silver's going to the moon now. Well my answer is be careful what you wish for because if silver's going to the moon now sure maybe it doubles from here and then gold does too. Who knows? But that means that's the blowoff top. History tells us that if that's what's happening now, after this whatever high we reach, the next big move will be down and down big and down for a long time. So that be careful what you wish for. What's happening in the world right now can be described in one word, unprecedented. We're seeing record gold prices well over $4,300 per ounce with silver breaching its historic highs of $50 as well. 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US gold mining has begun the process of an initial economic assessment, also known as a preliminary economic assessment or pea. This study is a preliminary review of economic factors and the timing couldn't be any better with gold and copper at record prices. Do your own research on US gold mining symbol USGO on the NASDAQ. Make sure you review US gold mining's annual report and other filings with the SEC when you research this opportunity. Well, that that was exactly my point uh for my next question. Before I ask that, what so so what you're saying is 50 is not the floor could go below that before it goes much higher. That's what >> if it was if it was the physical squeeze in London that pushed it over 50, then as soon as that's resolved, it would revert to trend. >> Tell us about that physical squeeze. >> Pardon me. >> Can you give us more det can you give us more detail on this physical squeeze going? >> I'm not an LBMA insider, right? I can't tell you exactly what's going on. I can summarize the reports that we've seen. >> Yeah, please. Right. And and that is that there is a problem with the actual dealing on the in the LME and fulfilling these contracts and there was an excessive flow of silver from London to the US because of the tariffs. And now that is being reversed. And there's people out there saying, "Oh, well, they can't fix it. It'll this squeeze will last a month because it takes that long for a ship to get there and it's too expensive to fly silver." I understand that they are flying some silver. There are some reports from some of the, you know, dealers and insiders. There are people that are saying that some of those flights have been reversed. So, I'm not an insider. I can't tell you how long this squeeze will last. I can tell you that multiple sources report that it's so and that it's being addressed. So, the question mark now is how long will it last? But what I'm saying here is, you know, blay those rotten tomatoes. I think it's a good thing if this squeeze in London actually sorts out. I mean, I think it's great to see some of these silver shorts, perennial silver shorts. I think it's great to see them forced to eat their shorts. Maybe they'll think twice about piling on so many shorts in the future, but I would like to see the situation resolved cuz I'd rather see gold and silver continue a steady climb than go vertical because nothing goes vertical forever. >> And that brings me to my next point, which is that this has only happened twice before in silver's history, breaking $50. Both times silver didn't stay there for very long. In fact, only a few days, few weeks maximum was, as was the case for 2011 and then 1980 was only literally one day. Uh, not even. >> And and I think what people want to know is how are the fundamentals different this time such that we're not going to get >> Can you zoom in on the 2011 one a bit? It would be instructive to see how long that lasted. Uh, I think to do that >> to me it looks like those bars are right next to each other one day after the other. >> Those are weekly bars. So, um, I should probably um I should probably >> My memory is that the 2011 surge up to 50 was also, if not as short as 1980, pretty darn close. Like >> it went up to $50 $49. It didn't actually technically break 50. Um, >> maybe intraday very briefly. Yeah, maybe intraday. uh April 29th, 2011. Okay. And then immediately the trough was May the 5th. So within a week it dropped to 34. >> Well, not just within a week, within days. So now we have a week over 50 bucks. >> To me, this does feel different. Like famous last words for investors, it's different this time. Um but but we have data, right? And if and after a big drop like 6% move is pretty scary. That's the sort of thing that triggers stops. And if there's a lot of people that are really worried, there will be stops. There will be trigger. So to me, it's actually quite significant that we had a big move down today and that did not cascade even lower. And so if we're going to close the week above 50, that's a big deal. And I I think it's actually quite bullish. I would not be surprised to see gold and silver resume their marches upwards next week. And I think this will be a good thing. You know, people last time I somebody asked me about this and I tried to be rational and reasonable and and remind people that nobody goes broke taking profits. Somebody in the comments on YouTube is like, "Oh, Lobo hates silver." You know, I'm wearing silver, dude. >> Um, do you are you but you're not you're not you're not somebody who's a maxi, right? You're not you're not somebody who buys silver and then never takes profits. I think that's maybe where the disconnect between you and the people saying that lies. Right. >> Right. Well, you know, it's my >> in two two different categories here. As a speculator, as an investor, it's my goal to make money. It's not my goal to be proitizing the religion of of real money. Um, you know, and and by the way, that's not even that's not an insult. I'm I'm not saying that silver and gold aren't real money. That that is my belief. I'm as as Austrian in my economics as the next Mexican-American wolf. Um, but that's a separate issue from making money in the markets. You know, as as a speculator, it's my job to look at trends and try to position myself and my readers to benefit from those trends. That's all I'm doing here. As far as the the bullion itself goes, I've said this multiple times, it's a classic Doug Caseyism. You know, we the the golded stocks and silver stocks, those are speculations. But the bullion itself, that's not the speculation that we buy that for prudence. It's insurance, right? It it is physical wealth. You can hold it in your hand and you can be long and there's no counterparty risk. There's no short opposite to your long. And and that, you know, I think I'm as dieh hard as the next stacker out there. I've got my own stacks, right? third palm tree on the left, midnight gardening, all that stuff. I'm I'm with everybody there. The difference is that I think people conflate these things, you know, the investment versus the insurance function. And as an investor, as a speculator, it's my job for my readers to help them make money, to keep the money they make, and not get wiped out if things go in ways we don't expect. And and sorry, one more thing on this for the people are like, "No, no, no. Well, you this time is different, right? you know, we have the the central bank buying and we have all this profess. We have trillion dollar deficits during during peace time. I'm I agree with all of those things, but the arguments that the bulls were making in September of 2011 for why gold and silver needed to continue rising and rising forever were just as strong. and and coming out of the GFC 2008 the aftermath 2009 2010 I mean the case looked bulletproof David I I don't know how old you are but I I think you were aware of the markets at that point you weren't quite in diapers at that point you're not I know you you look young but you're not that young you know you were there you should remember this in 2011 if you interviewed me or Doug Casey or or you know any of the any of the bulls out there we were convinced that there was no way they were going to paper over that the GFC and we were wrong. Okay. So, I'm not saying that I'm not outlining a bare case here. I'm just reminding at least the rational members of your audience out there and I'm sorry if that sounds insulting. It's not my intention. I'm trying to help. Just remember, you know, if you are absolutely convinced that you cannot be wrong, that's the way many of my peers and the people I respected the most in this business felt in 2011, right before we suffered a 5-year bare market. >> Well, what happened today was gold was also down. So, gold fell uh let me get my chart, 4.3%. A big move for gold. Um, and to your point, you know, people might be just taking some profits and they'll go back next week, but on a single day move, that's pretty significant. Is silver just following gold every step of the way? Because let's simplify this. If it is, then we can just talk about gold and then whatever we talk about, you know, let's just focus the conversation on gold and then silver will just follow. If it isn't, then we can have two separate conversations. You know what I mean? I think we have to have both because I think silver has been following gold more closely this year than copper as it was in the recent years. And I think that's a good thing. As a gold bull, I think it's great that silver is flexing its monetary metals muscles more this year than it has been recently. Last year, silver correlated more closely with copper than with gold. Uh, and I'm bullish on both, so that's actually not a bad thing. Um, but if you're worried about the economy and you're worried about how Dr. Copper will react to that, then that that is a potential headwind for silver, which gold doesn't have. So, I think it's good. My my fundamental view is bullish gold and that's bullish silver and I'm happy to see silver tracking gold. But I also think that in this very immediate context, this London physical squeeze going on over there is relevant. And and and I'm glad and I I think that's a good thing that that explains silver's outperformance in the near term because I I don't want the explanation to be that silver is finally catching up to gold. Not yet. Of course, Mr. Market doesn't care what I want. Um but but the answer to your question is that I think it is clearly the case. It's measurably the case that silver's gone back to or you know people have remembered that silver is a monetary metal. It is also safe haven habit h has it and that is a good thing. Now why actually I think maybe platinum gives us part of the answer here. You didn't ask about that but the other expensive silvery metals you know and I don't think of the I don't like the term precious metals because precious isn't a particularly important distinguisher. Monetary metals are different from industrial metals and precious kind of blurs that that distinction. So you didn't ask this but I'm throwing this in. I think part of what's going on is that gold, you know, I'm still a bull, but over $4,000 an ounce. It's really hard to stand here with a straight face and say, "Oh, this is a buy low opportunity." You know, buy low, sell high. I can't say that. I I know there are some people out there saying, "Oh, it's still going to the moon, so this is a buy low opportunity." I can't say that. So, and I think people realize this. You know, gold's gone screaming up. I mean 3,000 was a fantastic level and for it to go up to 4,000 a lot of people even mainstream folks saying okay it's you know I see the arguments but it's not cheap and so they're looking for alternatives and if silver is the poor man's gold >> well just the fact that it hasn't like doubled its previous high >> anomaly right you know that makes silver more attractive and platinum too platinum is is rarer than gold throughout history platinum has been more expensive than gold and For years now, platinum has been cheaper than gold. So for so if you're waking up, you're you're not a longtime metals market participant. You're not a, you know, gold bull forever. You're not a gold bug, per se, but you're just seeing the momentum in these metals. And you say, "Well, gee, I'm really excited about these metals. Look at gold. That's great. I want some of that. But gee, it's it's, you know, way above all-time highs. That's kind of expensive." So you look for alternative. Well, gee, platinum is well below all-time highs. it still has a long way to catch up even to a nominal high and silver is relatively cheap compared to gold. So I think >> I think this is part of what's going on is that the gold's record run has got so many people paying attention to it who normally couldn't even spell gold despite it only being a four-letter word that they're looking into alternatives and this is benefiting alternatives and that includes silver as well as the other silvery metals. >> Let me pause at another theory and you can evaluate this theory here. I've just noticed that what happened during uh the pandemic was that we had unlimited QE right around April. That was announced uh or May rather. And then silver went up, sorry, gold, I'm looking at gold. Gold went up about 23% uh from right after the pandemic recovery to its peak around $2,000. Remember that? And then it stayed flat for a number of years until we started taking off again last year. Only last year. >> By the way, I'll let you finish. But where you where you're at right now, that peak in 2020, >> I also said then nobody goes broke taking profits and people hated me for it. >> I got so much blowback for saying that then >> and look at that chart. I wasn't wrong. >> Well, I Okay. Well, remember what Lobo said back then and remember what Lobo's saying now. Anyway, um my point was look, silver only went up 25%. I I say only because a lot of people were basing it off of the fact that CPI for a lot of goods was up about more than 100% in some cases right in the co extreme. I know CPI itself the headline number wasn't up that much but um people felt it more than what the actual number was reflecting and so maybe silver gold and to some extent silver gold is just catching up now to the inflation that we got a couple years ago. It's just on a real real term uh inflationadjusted basis. Gold is just starting to make gains now whereas it was losing money in the last 2 years. I don't know why it's happening now. I can't offer an explanation but my theory is that the market is starting to discount the fact that gold being an alternative form of money like you said is finally reflecting the fact that the CPI for some goods has been more than double what it was pre- pandemic. Anyway, I'll let you comment on that. >> Two things real quick. Uh, silver did not perform as well as gold in that environment. It took a while and, you know, gold had a very v-shaped recovery. Silver was doing that more I've fallen and I can't get up thing for a while. >> And so, I think it's really interesting that silver is reacting with gold now. There was a lot more concern then about silver's industrial side. And so this is part of why what I just said in our last segment, why I'm so delighted to see silver tracking gold again now. Um it's very encouraging to me as a person who despite all the hate, despite all the dark silver comments, who still see silver as money. Um but to your but to your point now, you know what I'm going to say, David? Gold leads inflation. We've talked about this how many times with the hamburger index and CPI and all these things. I think you're you're baiting me here a little bit with this question. in 2020 gold that you know gold screaming up to 2000 and staying around that neighborhood for years foretold I think the huge spike inflation we got up to 9% and you in the US and other high levels in other countries if that's right then gold surging now is not catching up to the inflation of 2020 gold surging now is telling us higher inflation is coming ahead and I do believe that's true I mean We're told from the White House that we have the greatest economy ever. And I'm not beating up on Trump here. These are facts. Trump is saying we have the greatest economy ever. And yet it's okay and necessary for us to have tr multi-t trillion dollar deficits. Like like we literally have wartime levels of deficits in the United States while we have the greatest economy ever. So something's got to give there. My view is that, you know, the the Trump agenda and and and I'm this is not even a criticism of the Trump agenda. You know, even if I was completely on board, we got to reshore all this stuff. We got to defend against China. China can't make our weapons. If I completely was on board with all of that stuff, I would still say this agenda was inflationary. We're we're, you know, that Doge did not cut $2 trillion out of the federal budget. Sorry, the spending is there, the savings aren't, and um that's inflationary. Europe rearming is inflationary. Russia's war is inflationary. The only soft spot is China and I think ultimately the printing press wins that war at the end of the day as well. So I think all all paths lead to inflation going forward and I think that's what gold's big move now is signaling. It's leading David. Well, it's leading by a significant margin if you consider the fact that the CPI has only gone up about I mean less than 1% from 2.3% now to 2.9 and gold's gone up 100 something%. >> Yeah. In the last year >> it'll be interesting. I mean there's a lot of uh stimulatory action going on and again we we are officially not in a recession, >> right? We are we are blowing trillions of dollars into the economy without a without a recession. How can that be anything but inflationary when the chickens come home to roost? >> How can we incorporate Dr. Copper into this conversation? You mentioned earlier copper, you know, if gold leads uh the inflation rate. Well, copper has historically possibly led economic growth, if not coinciding with growth. And now it's at an all-time high, near an all-time high. If you just ignore this um this this blip here that was >> ignore the data, David. No, no, actually, but I agree with you. >> This was this was a uh this was a um arbitrage thing happened. But anyway, >> that was that was tariff induced. >> Yeah. >> You know, both on the upside and the downside that was tariff noise rather than reality. So, I agree with you. Actually, I do agree with you with ignoring those spikes. And if you pull back or even there, you know, you're what? Yeah. I mean, that's a pretty bullish trend. And I do believe that that is driven by supply constraints. And Dr. copper. You know, a lot of people, there's a lot of press out there about, oh, it's an AI trade and the AI hype will go into reverse and copper will crash, or it's all about electric cars, but, you know, Trump is ending the the electric car mandates, so it's going to crash. Well, you know, as hyped up as AI is, it's not going away. So, that is a tailwind that I think is durable. And even if the United States didn't buy another electric car ever, nobody, which isn't going to happen, but even if that did happen, the rest of the world is still going in that direction. Uh, and by the way, your hybrid cars also use a lot more copper than your planing internal combustion engine cars. So, I don't think either of those tailwinds goes away. And I think they're both significant pluses. But even if they weren't there, just your general population growth, we use copper for wiring in houses and for a gazillion other things, you know, maybe someday some of these science projects we hear about, you know, carbon based conductors and whatnot will will be a replacement threat, but that's someday in the future. Right now, the demand only grows and the supply remains highly constrained. And the the noise in the chart aside from the tariffs is that yeah, they call it Dr. Copper for a reason. So if there's bad economic news, it can go up and down. We can have these these uh fluctuations. And in fact, I'm hoping we have something like that because I've been bullish on copper for a while and I've been accumulating cash waiting to uh diversify. Like people say, well, if you do take profits on some gold and silver stocks, it's in a fluctuation. What will you do with them? Well, if gold and silver get cheap enough, I would go back into that. But I'm also planning to rotate into copper because I'm very bullish on it going forward. And I think because of the noise that we were talking about and because of the near-term economic potential for what I call Trump shock shaking things up, um I think there's a buying opportunity likely, not certain, but likely in the near future. And I'm intending to buy with both paws or fist as the case may be when that happens. And if I'm wrong, I'm planning to buy anyway because I'm I'm that convinced of the copper thesis for years going forward. >> That that is remarkable statement because considering the fact that you're a lot more bullish on copper than at current levels. I'm not saying long long-term at current levels than you than you seem to be with gold and silver. You're not saying I'm buying with both hands and feet right now with gold and silver. In fact, saying quite the opposite. So the fundamentals for copper just seem that much stronger than gold. Well, let's say yes. I mean, basically the the fundamentals for copper seem that much stronger and it's in particular unlike uranium which also has similar supply constraints and in a similar necessity case on the use side. So, I really like uranium for you could almost cookie cutter what I said about copper and paste it over on uranium with the big difference being that, you know, if there's another Chernobyl scale event that could completely take our uranium specs, you know, out to the behind the woodshed and thrash them, you know, for good. That can't happen with copper. There is no copper reactor meltdown that's going to scare the world out of copper or something, right? So, uh, you know, I'm also actually bullish on oil and I want to say oil and gas, but mostly oil at some point going forward. I agree with Rick Rule's, you know, comments about how much he loves buying hate, right, is one of his famous things and the the sector being starved of capital and at some point, yeah, I think, you know, the oil will go higher. But, you know, we're still facing voluntary supply constraints. we're facing economic uncertainty. It's much more sensitive to the economy. Um like Dr. Copper in the short run, whereas uranium is is used for base load power and uh we've talked about this before. I think in three of the last four recessions, uranium went up and the one that it went down was the GFC and it was already crashing down from a peak in 2007. So arguably that had nothing to do with the GFC. Anyway, >> yeah, >> I'm getting the point. The point is that there are many things that you can look at and make really strong bull cases for, but copper is the one that just seems the strongest. And you asked me to compare it to gold and or silver. You know, the difference there is that going to your your inflation question, you know, what is $4,000 plus gold telling us? Could it be that, you know, that we've actually arrived? that, you know, all these scary and negative things that we've been, you know, critics of the government have been saying for years. Could it be that $4,000 goal is the destination? Or, you know, many of us said, you know, maybe four or $5,000 goal. Well, it's it's it's getting close. It's getting in that neighborhood. So, it is possible. I'm not predicting this. Here come the Rotten Tomatoes, David. It is possible that we have just seen a peak and that it's September of 2011 all over again and that the next big move is downwards in gold and silver. This is not my expectation. It's not how I'm betting. But I cannot tell you that it's impossible and that gold has to go up from here from from 4,000 and change. Come on. It could be that a lot of the damage that that we've worried about is priced in in which case there could be a bare market ahead. Whereas I don't see that in copper at all. Like it's not that I'm more bullish on copper than gold or silver. It's that I feel greater confidence in the upward trajectory for for copper than just about anything else right now. >> Put it this way. What news would you need to see to give you absolute confidence that this bull rally is either at the end or there's a lot more room to climb. In other words, we'd have complete different conversation. You give me certainty. Would it be central banks all of a sudden rotating? back on gold again. Are we still talking? >> Oh, let's talk about gold. I meant I meant gold. Yeah. Um, sorry. So, what central banks, as you know, have been buying gold. The world gold council has reported that the that the central banks of the east primarily, Poland, Eastern central banks, Eastern European and China have been the main buyers of gold this year. That's one. So, maybe that stops that that shifts the narrative. Maybe Trump reverses trade policies. This is actually part of part of my bull case, David. And and for all those people hating me for even mentioning that it might go into a bare market or having any caution whatsoever. Um, you know, I'm I'm actually on their side more than they realize or understand. I absolutely agree or that you didn't quite say this, but it is my view that the central bank gold buying is a paradigm shift. It is absolutely a one-way door. Russia and China certainly they're not going to go back to saying oh it's okay to rely on the US to manage our financial lifeblood right and the diversification around the world is is very clear and it's not just our the US's um geopolitical opponents it's everybody around the world uh you know even our our allies are repatriating their gold you know that's really telling us something I I keep saying our I am a US citizen uh but I think of myself rather as a citizen of the world. At any rate, so I think this is huge, David. And I and I don't think that a you know another 2011 to 2015 bare type market is at all likely. But I can't responsibly look you in the eye and say it can't happen or absolutely it will not happen. Certainty is not an option. And that's why I don't I'm not tell I haven't been telling everybody to sell. I've been telling everybody, make sure you lock in your gains. You know, it's different. Prepare to um be defensive. And and that leads me to, I think, the more useful or constructive answer to your point here. And that is I have not decided to sell. I don't think I'm smart enough and I don't think anybody else is smart enough to figure out where this market is going to top. So instead of trying to call the top, I have a system. I think we've talked about it before, David. I call it an upside maximizer. It's a kind of variation on a trailing stop thing that ratchets higher so that instead of selling half on the first double the way my mentor Doug Casey taught me 20 odd years ago, um, I put an upside maximizer on the first double and I let it ride as long as it keeps going. And then when it rolls over, I can either recover my initial investment or take all the profits or if I'm worried about that company or the markets, I can take all my money off the table. You know, at that point, it's up to me to decide what's going on and what to do about it. But at the very least, I reach what Rick Ro likes to call the point of no concern, which is a thing of beauty. Now, here's the answer to your question. If that happens to one company, it can be idiosyncratic to that company or maybe that country where it operates. But if that happens across my portfolio, boom, boom, boom, boom, all my upside maximizers are being triggered. Well, that's a market move. And then that's something that I need to think about, okay, how do I want to deal with this? And if at the very least I just take all of my initial investments back off the table, then I'm beyond the point of no concern. And even if there is a bare market, I actually can't lose money. And if I, you know, I end up taking less money in the end, I still win. Whereas if I take more off the table, if I'm really worried about it and I take more off the table, you know, I can win a lot. I can lock in huge gains and still leave some money on the table in case the market goes back up again. So, you don't have to do what I do. You don't have to copy me. Uh, you know, the upside maximizer report, if you don't mind my saying so, David, is a free download on our website. But the main point, audience, is you should have a plan. You should have an exit strategy. All your veteran investors, all the ones who've managed to make and keep money will tell you you've got to have an exit strategy. And a belief that gold and silver have to reach the moon before I even worry about that is a dangerous belief. You should have an exit strategy. Now, that's that's the takeaway. >> Let's finish off on miners. I wonder if the same logic applies to the gold miners. Um and by the way, you can check out um Lobo Tigra's website. He gives commentary on individual stocks. And of course, if you like what we're doing right now, feel free to subscribe if you haven't already. You'll get daily updates on financial news with experts. Let's take a look at the GDX again. Big sell off today following what happened with gold and silver. I say big because it moved literally almost 10% in one trading session. This is October 16th, which is yesterday. This is October 17th, which is today. We're talking about 9% move in one day, which is significant. And it's bottoming out around $78 a share. Uh it's moved up since the beginning of the year. It's moved up about uh 126 27%. Well, it was 120. It was 14. It was 150 before today's selloff. But yeah, still 125% year-to- date move. Taking profits on these miners were not. Depends on what you mean by taking profits. Like people take that wrong. They think, "Oh, he's saying to sell everything and gold's going to the moon. What an idiot." That's not what I'm saying. Again, you could you could just recover your initial investment. You could recover your initial investment plus some or you could take all of your winnings and leave only your initial investment. Different ways to play this depending on your your risk outlook there. All I'm saying is that if something has changed in that market or in that company, nobody goes broke taking profits. But I think what the more interesting point that you're bringing up or that I think is related to what you're bringing up is if this was 2011 all over again and I don't think it is but if it was what happened in 2011 was that the stocks led the metals lower by a by months like in 2011 when gold went up to 1911 intraday you know I remember when it hit a thousand we were all breaking out the champagne on the way up. And we thought if it ever hit 1500, that would be nirvana, right? All the gold companies would just be printing cash. We'd all be driving Lambos and everything. Wow. If if gold could just hit 1500, how amazing that would be. And it went screaming past that up to 1900. So, no surprise, people were selling their gold stocks. They were taking profits that, you know, those Lambos weren't going to drive themselves. So the stocks led the way down in 2011. Like it it seemed like the smart money figured gold had gone too far too fast and so let's let's get some money off the table. That doesn't seem to be happening yet this time. And even that move that you pointed out on that chart, you know, that's that's not even twice the move in the metal. Like usually the stocks will give you something like 3, four, 5x leverage to the underlying moves in the metal. So if the smart money was saying, "Oh, that's it. it's time to get out. I think we would have seen a much bigger move down in the stocks today. And I think if the metals had peaked, at least recent history tells us, you know, an encouraging thing is that the stocks have not been leading the way down. Like if if if gold and silver reaching the levels they've had were too far, unsustainable. You know, all the smart money would have been selling the stocks, taking profits more than profits, and getting out of harm's way, I think, starting months ago. So, I actually find it quite encouraging. Okay, yeah, the stocks were off today. So were the metals. You know, that's normal, but we're not we're not looking at one of those alligator jaw charts where the stocks and the metals are telling us different things. When that happens, that's time to worry. So, not time to worry yet. We'll we'll see what happens next week. If uh you're right and things just recover or this is actually the return of 2011 all over again, we'll see. Plenty more to discuss either way. So, uh, we're we'll follow you in the meantime. Where do we go to do that, Lil? >> independentspeculator.com. I have a free weekly, uh, art, uh, newsletter called the digest, and you can see if you like my thinking there. You know, I'm I'm actually not trying to be the rain on the parade, though. That's how they call me. I'm I'm actually >> You said that like seven times. Have you been getting a lot of hate mail? Have you been >> Maybe I'm being overset. No, I'm not like I'm not personally upset, David. But what bothers me about this is that the people who are giving me this push back, those are the people who are trying to help. Those are the people who get it. The gold and silver bulls, right, who understand what real money is, and I'd hate for them to wait for years, be right, but not make money or not keep the money they made. Anyway, so check it out. >> I wonder if those people who are upset at you recently bought in. So, cuz you bought in at $1,500. >> Yes. >> I mean, are you really upset now for any reason? >> Right. I I don't know. >> That's not my impression. I I can't I should conduct a poll, David. I'll find out. >> Yeah. >> But my impression is >> that it's it's not the Johnny come lately. It's it's it's the long-suffering bulls who are like, "No, this is it. This is finally our day in the sun. Don't rain on my parade." >> Well, it's been Well, yeah, I'm I understand. It's It's been their day in the sun for a year and a half. It's up 120 something% since 2024. I'm talking about gold. Anyway, um great talk, Lobo. I appreciate it. Follow Lobo at the independentspeculator.com. And as always, thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
Major Crash Starting For Gold, Silver? What's Next After Biggest Drop In Months | Lobo Tiggre
Summary
Transcript
[Music] dropped 6 and a half% uh intraday before bottoming out at $50. See the floor is 50 because right at $50 uh people started buying again and pushed it back up to 5170. It's interesting. Hey, um is 50 the floor? Let me just start there. Nobody knows. But let's just talk about this uh rationally. Is 50 the new floor? You think we're talking about the incredible and historic unprecedented rallies in gold and silver and copper for that matter. The metals are just on fire. What should we do next? Loel Trey joins us today. He is the editor of the independent speculator.com. Welcome back to the show. Lobel, I can think of no better person to talk to us about the broader metals complex right now than yourself. Thank you for being here. >> No better person if only because I'm the professional rain on the parade in this business. So, >> you've been you've been warning us about taking profits, but it just keeps going up. Should we take profits? Now, I'll start with that question because I've been asked that question in my personal life, not just on this show, but people have been commenting on this exact topic at dinner parties. People who I've never spoken to about markets, and now they're asking me, "What's going on with gold? What's going on with silver? Silver's run out at Costco. Should I go buy more some elsewhere? Well, that's a that's actually worth coming back to sign of the times. You know, we've got Thanksgiving coming up and last few Thanksgivings it was, you know, all the brothers-in-law talking about the the money they made on crypto. It'll be interesting to see if this Thanksgiving we have people talking about the money they made on gold and silver. Bragging rights might tell us something about the state of the market. But to your question, uh this week as we're recording, Friday afternoon, gold and silver are off. All this week long we've been seeing that, you know, just higher highs. Gold and silver both ripping higher. Silver all the way up to 54 bucks. And then when I would say that's great, I'm long. I'm bullish. But don't forget to take profits. Nobody goes broke taking profits. I'd get all kinds of push back, especially on social media. Surprise, surprise. Oh, it's going to the moon. You know, don't bring the moon down. You're wrong. It's going straight up. Strangely, those people are absent today while we have this pullback. Um, and I think that's >> pull back. >> I'm I'm not here to say, "Haha, I was right." I I'm remember I'm I'm long. And it it's so funny how people hear or remember an interpretation rather than what you said. You can say, "I'm long. I'm bullish, but be careful." And all they remember is be careful, therefore he's a bear. Which, you know, that therefore part is made up. It's not true. But that's how people react. Anyway, the point is you asked, you know, what do we do now? What do we do here? Can you is it going higher? Is it is going to correct? The answer of course is I don't know. Nobody knows. People they they like it better if I say yes. It's going to 65 like Morgan Stanley says or was that JP Morgan that those famous gold bulls? I don't remember. Um and here's why. And here's why you got to buy. Just bye bye bye. You know pe people when they're in the bullish mode that's all they want to hear. No, we like that about you, Lobo. You're impartial. So, tell us what you think about this really dramatic selloff. Yeah. >> Yeah. So, but if if your object is to make money, you don't want to get wedded to a thesis. You want to make money, right? Yeah. You're highlighting it right now on the screen. So, you know, the answer right now is I don't know where the top is, but nobody goes broke taking profits. So, you should have a system for ensuring that your big wins don't slip through your fingers. I mean, for crying out loud, even the GDX is up triple digits this year. So, you know, you'd have to be almost trying not to make money if you were long in the monetary metal space and didn't make money so far. Great. Congratulations to us all. I'm a bull. I think it goes higher. I'm a fundamentalist. all the money printing, central bank buying, reallocation globally to gold, political risk, you know, physical security risk, all kinds of reasons. I'm I'm a bull. But that doesn't mean that something can't at the very least correct. And really with with gold well above $4,000, $4,000 and silver hitting significant all-time highs, what has been priced in? Is it a reasonable question? So, what I'm saying is I'm not selling. I'm not putting out a market top alert. I'm saying that I have something like a stop-loss, but I call it an upside maximizer. It's a ratcheting stop-loss to make sure that if any of my big wins roll over at the very least take profits or take some money off the table, the minimum would be my initial investment so that I go beyond the no point of no concern as our friend Rick Rule likes to say. Or maybe if I'm more worried about that particular company, take more than that. I could take all the profits and leave only what I started with on the table. I'd be no worse off than I started with, but I'd have, you know, a multiple of my money back in the bank where it's safe. So, when I say nobody goes broke taking profits, that does not mean I'm a bear. That does not mean I'm saying the market is peaked. I'm saying, look, you long-suffering gold and silver bulls, you've been waiting years, if not decades, for this. How bad would it be to be right, but not make any money? That's all I'm saying. Don't Don't let your big win slip through your fingers. In fact, I haven't looked at the closing price today, but I think I just got triggered on an upside maximizer I have on a big silver win, believe it or not. Um, and if that holds, then I will be going beyond the point of no concern on that stock come Monday. And you know, maybe I limit some upside that way. But David, I made money. I will not only have, you know, not be able to lose, I will not only get my money back off the table, I will have my money back off the table and a profit. And whatever happens next, you know, if if silver and gold keep going up, I'll still make more money. But if things go south for a while, correct for a while, you know, I cannot lose on that proposition. So, forgive me for pounding the table here, but I just think that there's been so much emotion in the market this week. You know, I I've had people, you know, every day that gold and silver ticked up this week. I had somebody say, "Hey, I wrote to you Monday and I said it was going higher." Okay, fine. Well, I'm not hearing from those people today. And so please dear audience you know put aside your feelings for a moment try to take a deep breath and think about what we know what we don't know what we guess what we hope and how we can employ rational strategies to make sure that we make money in these markets and and not just you know uh waste opportunities >> dropped 6 and a half% uh intraday before bought out at $50. See, the floor is 50 because right at $50, uh, people started buying again and pushed it back up to 5170. >> It's interesting. Hey, is 50 the floor? Let me just start there. Nobody knows. But let's just talk about this uh rationally. Is 50 the new floor, you think? >> No. Let me expound. I just wanted to let that sink in for a moment so all the people get out the rotten tomatoes and get ready to throw them at Darth Silver here. In fact, I was prepared for this. Darth Silver sent us not the floor. Um, but fortunately, the tomatoes are delayed over the internet. So, I can finish what I'm saying here. We've had a special circumstance in the silver market. The backwardation that I think you've discussed with other guests or people out there have noticed where the spot price is higher than the futures price. That's really interesting. And it has a specific cause over in London where there is an actual silver squeeze going on. It I find it very amusing that, you know, silver bulls have have tried to engineer a silver squeeze and and and make the shorts suffer for their positions and and Donald Trump has achieved this actually this year. I think completely inadvertently that the tariffs and all that gold and silver bullion that got shipped from London to to New York and Chicago got shipped to the US that's actually produced a physical shortfall in London now at a time of need. So uh there is an actual squeeze going on and that's why in my view spot silver went ahead of spot futures this week. Why spot silver hit 54 where the futures haven't yet. Um, and there's good news and bad news here. You know, the bad news is that if that gets sorted out in the near term, which I don't think today's price action shows, I think today's u price action because it's gold and silver is a reaction to broader economic inputs. Um, this is important because if silver got an extra tailwind, an extra boost from this squeeze in London, that will be sorted out at some point. And what I really like about this, I think this is a good thing, it's not just that the squeeze is on and the shorts deserve to be squeezed. And okay, I agree with that. I I can have a little uh shod and frea there. But the reason why this is important is because even you know your most diehard gold and silver bulls will tell you that silver usually lags at the beginning of a bull market and then more than catches up at the end. So if silver shooting up to 54 was be the beginning of silver catching up with gold that would actually be a signal that this bull market is close to an end. And I don't agree with that. I, you know, as a fundamentalist looking at the market, looking at the money printing, the central banks and the people rotating, all these other things going on, you know, the the geopolitical risk, I don't think we're near the top of this market. And it was worrying me that silver was starting to catch up to gold before I thought it should have. So, if the reason for that is this London uh silver squeeze, then I feel better. It's not really silver catching up to gold as a monetary metal. It's something specific to the silver market that's happening now. So if we see silver correct more than gold in the near term, uh there is a forgive me for saying it silver lining to that because I think it it it will support my thesis and my hope that we'll see a more stable steady climb for years to come. David, I'm I I expect to be a bull in the space for years to come. Not a permable, but years to come. So the latest uh market action and my interpretation of this physical squeeze in London I think supports that thesis. But for all those people who are saying no no this is it. Silver's going to the moon now. Well my answer is be careful what you wish for because if silver's going to the moon now sure maybe it doubles from here and then gold does too. Who knows? But that means that's the blowoff top. History tells us that if that's what's happening now, after this whatever high we reach, the next big move will be down and down big and down for a long time. So that be careful what you wish for. What's happening in the world right now can be described in one word, unprecedented. We're seeing record gold prices well over $4,300 per ounce with silver breaching its historic highs of $50 as well. 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US gold mining has begun the process of an initial economic assessment, also known as a preliminary economic assessment or pea. This study is a preliminary review of economic factors and the timing couldn't be any better with gold and copper at record prices. Do your own research on US gold mining symbol USGO on the NASDAQ. Make sure you review US gold mining's annual report and other filings with the SEC when you research this opportunity. Well, that that was exactly my point uh for my next question. Before I ask that, what so so what you're saying is 50 is not the floor could go below that before it goes much higher. That's what >> if it was if it was the physical squeeze in London that pushed it over 50, then as soon as that's resolved, it would revert to trend. >> Tell us about that physical squeeze. >> Pardon me. >> Can you give us more det can you give us more detail on this physical squeeze going? >> I'm not an LBMA insider, right? I can't tell you exactly what's going on. I can summarize the reports that we've seen. >> Yeah, please. Right. And and that is that there is a problem with the actual dealing on the in the LME and fulfilling these contracts and there was an excessive flow of silver from London to the US because of the tariffs. And now that is being reversed. And there's people out there saying, "Oh, well, they can't fix it. It'll this squeeze will last a month because it takes that long for a ship to get there and it's too expensive to fly silver." I understand that they are flying some silver. There are some reports from some of the, you know, dealers and insiders. There are people that are saying that some of those flights have been reversed. So, I'm not an insider. I can't tell you how long this squeeze will last. I can tell you that multiple sources report that it's so and that it's being addressed. So, the question mark now is how long will it last? But what I'm saying here is, you know, blay those rotten tomatoes. I think it's a good thing if this squeeze in London actually sorts out. I mean, I think it's great to see some of these silver shorts, perennial silver shorts. I think it's great to see them forced to eat their shorts. Maybe they'll think twice about piling on so many shorts in the future, but I would like to see the situation resolved cuz I'd rather see gold and silver continue a steady climb than go vertical because nothing goes vertical forever. >> And that brings me to my next point, which is that this has only happened twice before in silver's history, breaking $50. Both times silver didn't stay there for very long. In fact, only a few days, few weeks maximum was, as was the case for 2011 and then 1980 was only literally one day. Uh, not even. >> And and I think what people want to know is how are the fundamentals different this time such that we're not going to get >> Can you zoom in on the 2011 one a bit? It would be instructive to see how long that lasted. Uh, I think to do that >> to me it looks like those bars are right next to each other one day after the other. >> Those are weekly bars. So, um, I should probably um I should probably >> My memory is that the 2011 surge up to 50 was also, if not as short as 1980, pretty darn close. Like >> it went up to $50 $49. It didn't actually technically break 50. Um, >> maybe intraday very briefly. Yeah, maybe intraday. uh April 29th, 2011. Okay. And then immediately the trough was May the 5th. So within a week it dropped to 34. >> Well, not just within a week, within days. So now we have a week over 50 bucks. >> To me, this does feel different. Like famous last words for investors, it's different this time. Um but but we have data, right? And if and after a big drop like 6% move is pretty scary. That's the sort of thing that triggers stops. And if there's a lot of people that are really worried, there will be stops. There will be trigger. So to me, it's actually quite significant that we had a big move down today and that did not cascade even lower. And so if we're going to close the week above 50, that's a big deal. And I I think it's actually quite bullish. I would not be surprised to see gold and silver resume their marches upwards next week. And I think this will be a good thing. You know, people last time I somebody asked me about this and I tried to be rational and reasonable and and remind people that nobody goes broke taking profits. Somebody in the comments on YouTube is like, "Oh, Lobo hates silver." You know, I'm wearing silver, dude. >> Um, do you are you but you're not you're not you're not somebody who's a maxi, right? You're not you're not somebody who buys silver and then never takes profits. I think that's maybe where the disconnect between you and the people saying that lies. Right. >> Right. Well, you know, it's my >> in two two different categories here. As a speculator, as an investor, it's my goal to make money. It's not my goal to be proitizing the religion of of real money. Um, you know, and and by the way, that's not even that's not an insult. I'm I'm not saying that silver and gold aren't real money. That that is my belief. I'm as as Austrian in my economics as the next Mexican-American wolf. Um, but that's a separate issue from making money in the markets. You know, as as a speculator, it's my job to look at trends and try to position myself and my readers to benefit from those trends. That's all I'm doing here. As far as the the bullion itself goes, I've said this multiple times, it's a classic Doug Caseyism. You know, we the the golded stocks and silver stocks, those are speculations. But the bullion itself, that's not the speculation that we buy that for prudence. It's insurance, right? It it is physical wealth. You can hold it in your hand and you can be long and there's no counterparty risk. There's no short opposite to your long. And and that, you know, I think I'm as dieh hard as the next stacker out there. I've got my own stacks, right? third palm tree on the left, midnight gardening, all that stuff. I'm I'm with everybody there. The difference is that I think people conflate these things, you know, the investment versus the insurance function. And as an investor, as a speculator, it's my job for my readers to help them make money, to keep the money they make, and not get wiped out if things go in ways we don't expect. And and sorry, one more thing on this for the people are like, "No, no, no. Well, you this time is different, right? you know, we have the the central bank buying and we have all this profess. We have trillion dollar deficits during during peace time. I'm I agree with all of those things, but the arguments that the bulls were making in September of 2011 for why gold and silver needed to continue rising and rising forever were just as strong. and and coming out of the GFC 2008 the aftermath 2009 2010 I mean the case looked bulletproof David I I don't know how old you are but I I think you were aware of the markets at that point you weren't quite in diapers at that point you're not I know you you look young but you're not that young you know you were there you should remember this in 2011 if you interviewed me or Doug Casey or or you know any of the any of the bulls out there we were convinced that there was no way they were going to paper over that the GFC and we were wrong. Okay. So, I'm not saying that I'm not outlining a bare case here. I'm just reminding at least the rational members of your audience out there and I'm sorry if that sounds insulting. It's not my intention. I'm trying to help. Just remember, you know, if you are absolutely convinced that you cannot be wrong, that's the way many of my peers and the people I respected the most in this business felt in 2011, right before we suffered a 5-year bare market. >> Well, what happened today was gold was also down. So, gold fell uh let me get my chart, 4.3%. A big move for gold. Um, and to your point, you know, people might be just taking some profits and they'll go back next week, but on a single day move, that's pretty significant. Is silver just following gold every step of the way? Because let's simplify this. If it is, then we can just talk about gold and then whatever we talk about, you know, let's just focus the conversation on gold and then silver will just follow. If it isn't, then we can have two separate conversations. You know what I mean? I think we have to have both because I think silver has been following gold more closely this year than copper as it was in the recent years. And I think that's a good thing. As a gold bull, I think it's great that silver is flexing its monetary metals muscles more this year than it has been recently. Last year, silver correlated more closely with copper than with gold. Uh, and I'm bullish on both, so that's actually not a bad thing. Um, but if you're worried about the economy and you're worried about how Dr. Copper will react to that, then that that is a potential headwind for silver, which gold doesn't have. So, I think it's good. My my fundamental view is bullish gold and that's bullish silver and I'm happy to see silver tracking gold. But I also think that in this very immediate context, this London physical squeeze going on over there is relevant. And and and I'm glad and I I think that's a good thing that that explains silver's outperformance in the near term because I I don't want the explanation to be that silver is finally catching up to gold. Not yet. Of course, Mr. Market doesn't care what I want. Um but but the answer to your question is that I think it is clearly the case. It's measurably the case that silver's gone back to or you know people have remembered that silver is a monetary metal. It is also safe haven habit h has it and that is a good thing. Now why actually I think maybe platinum gives us part of the answer here. You didn't ask about that but the other expensive silvery metals you know and I don't think of the I don't like the term precious metals because precious isn't a particularly important distinguisher. Monetary metals are different from industrial metals and precious kind of blurs that that distinction. So you didn't ask this but I'm throwing this in. I think part of what's going on is that gold, you know, I'm still a bull, but over $4,000 an ounce. It's really hard to stand here with a straight face and say, "Oh, this is a buy low opportunity." You know, buy low, sell high. I can't say that. I I know there are some people out there saying, "Oh, it's still going to the moon, so this is a buy low opportunity." I can't say that. So, and I think people realize this. You know, gold's gone screaming up. I mean 3,000 was a fantastic level and for it to go up to 4,000 a lot of people even mainstream folks saying okay it's you know I see the arguments but it's not cheap and so they're looking for alternatives and if silver is the poor man's gold >> well just the fact that it hasn't like doubled its previous high >> anomaly right you know that makes silver more attractive and platinum too platinum is is rarer than gold throughout history platinum has been more expensive than gold and For years now, platinum has been cheaper than gold. So for so if you're waking up, you're you're not a longtime metals market participant. You're not a, you know, gold bull forever. You're not a gold bug, per se, but you're just seeing the momentum in these metals. And you say, "Well, gee, I'm really excited about these metals. Look at gold. That's great. I want some of that. But gee, it's it's, you know, way above all-time highs. That's kind of expensive." So you look for alternative. Well, gee, platinum is well below all-time highs. it still has a long way to catch up even to a nominal high and silver is relatively cheap compared to gold. So I think >> I think this is part of what's going on is that the gold's record run has got so many people paying attention to it who normally couldn't even spell gold despite it only being a four-letter word that they're looking into alternatives and this is benefiting alternatives and that includes silver as well as the other silvery metals. >> Let me pause at another theory and you can evaluate this theory here. I've just noticed that what happened during uh the pandemic was that we had unlimited QE right around April. That was announced uh or May rather. And then silver went up, sorry, gold, I'm looking at gold. Gold went up about 23% uh from right after the pandemic recovery to its peak around $2,000. Remember that? And then it stayed flat for a number of years until we started taking off again last year. Only last year. >> By the way, I'll let you finish. But where you where you're at right now, that peak in 2020, >> I also said then nobody goes broke taking profits and people hated me for it. >> I got so much blowback for saying that then >> and look at that chart. I wasn't wrong. >> Well, I Okay. Well, remember what Lobo said back then and remember what Lobo's saying now. Anyway, um my point was look, silver only went up 25%. I I say only because a lot of people were basing it off of the fact that CPI for a lot of goods was up about more than 100% in some cases right in the co extreme. I know CPI itself the headline number wasn't up that much but um people felt it more than what the actual number was reflecting and so maybe silver gold and to some extent silver gold is just catching up now to the inflation that we got a couple years ago. It's just on a real real term uh inflationadjusted basis. Gold is just starting to make gains now whereas it was losing money in the last 2 years. I don't know why it's happening now. I can't offer an explanation but my theory is that the market is starting to discount the fact that gold being an alternative form of money like you said is finally reflecting the fact that the CPI for some goods has been more than double what it was pre- pandemic. Anyway, I'll let you comment on that. >> Two things real quick. Uh, silver did not perform as well as gold in that environment. It took a while and, you know, gold had a very v-shaped recovery. Silver was doing that more I've fallen and I can't get up thing for a while. >> And so, I think it's really interesting that silver is reacting with gold now. There was a lot more concern then about silver's industrial side. And so this is part of why what I just said in our last segment, why I'm so delighted to see silver tracking gold again now. Um it's very encouraging to me as a person who despite all the hate, despite all the dark silver comments, who still see silver as money. Um but to your but to your point now, you know what I'm going to say, David? Gold leads inflation. We've talked about this how many times with the hamburger index and CPI and all these things. I think you're you're baiting me here a little bit with this question. in 2020 gold that you know gold screaming up to 2000 and staying around that neighborhood for years foretold I think the huge spike inflation we got up to 9% and you in the US and other high levels in other countries if that's right then gold surging now is not catching up to the inflation of 2020 gold surging now is telling us higher inflation is coming ahead and I do believe that's true I mean We're told from the White House that we have the greatest economy ever. And I'm not beating up on Trump here. These are facts. Trump is saying we have the greatest economy ever. And yet it's okay and necessary for us to have tr multi-t trillion dollar deficits. Like like we literally have wartime levels of deficits in the United States while we have the greatest economy ever. So something's got to give there. My view is that, you know, the the Trump agenda and and and I'm this is not even a criticism of the Trump agenda. You know, even if I was completely on board, we got to reshore all this stuff. We got to defend against China. China can't make our weapons. If I completely was on board with all of that stuff, I would still say this agenda was inflationary. We're we're, you know, that Doge did not cut $2 trillion out of the federal budget. Sorry, the spending is there, the savings aren't, and um that's inflationary. Europe rearming is inflationary. Russia's war is inflationary. The only soft spot is China and I think ultimately the printing press wins that war at the end of the day as well. So I think all all paths lead to inflation going forward and I think that's what gold's big move now is signaling. It's leading David. Well, it's leading by a significant margin if you consider the fact that the CPI has only gone up about I mean less than 1% from 2.3% now to 2.9 and gold's gone up 100 something%. >> Yeah. In the last year >> it'll be interesting. I mean there's a lot of uh stimulatory action going on and again we we are officially not in a recession, >> right? We are we are blowing trillions of dollars into the economy without a without a recession. How can that be anything but inflationary when the chickens come home to roost? >> How can we incorporate Dr. Copper into this conversation? You mentioned earlier copper, you know, if gold leads uh the inflation rate. Well, copper has historically possibly led economic growth, if not coinciding with growth. And now it's at an all-time high, near an all-time high. If you just ignore this um this this blip here that was >> ignore the data, David. No, no, actually, but I agree with you. >> This was this was a uh this was a um arbitrage thing happened. But anyway, >> that was that was tariff induced. >> Yeah. >> You know, both on the upside and the downside that was tariff noise rather than reality. So, I agree with you. Actually, I do agree with you with ignoring those spikes. And if you pull back or even there, you know, you're what? Yeah. I mean, that's a pretty bullish trend. And I do believe that that is driven by supply constraints. And Dr. copper. You know, a lot of people, there's a lot of press out there about, oh, it's an AI trade and the AI hype will go into reverse and copper will crash, or it's all about electric cars, but, you know, Trump is ending the the electric car mandates, so it's going to crash. Well, you know, as hyped up as AI is, it's not going away. So, that is a tailwind that I think is durable. And even if the United States didn't buy another electric car ever, nobody, which isn't going to happen, but even if that did happen, the rest of the world is still going in that direction. Uh, and by the way, your hybrid cars also use a lot more copper than your planing internal combustion engine cars. So, I don't think either of those tailwinds goes away. And I think they're both significant pluses. But even if they weren't there, just your general population growth, we use copper for wiring in houses and for a gazillion other things, you know, maybe someday some of these science projects we hear about, you know, carbon based conductors and whatnot will will be a replacement threat, but that's someday in the future. Right now, the demand only grows and the supply remains highly constrained. And the the noise in the chart aside from the tariffs is that yeah, they call it Dr. Copper for a reason. So if there's bad economic news, it can go up and down. We can have these these uh fluctuations. And in fact, I'm hoping we have something like that because I've been bullish on copper for a while and I've been accumulating cash waiting to uh diversify. Like people say, well, if you do take profits on some gold and silver stocks, it's in a fluctuation. What will you do with them? Well, if gold and silver get cheap enough, I would go back into that. But I'm also planning to rotate into copper because I'm very bullish on it going forward. And I think because of the noise that we were talking about and because of the near-term economic potential for what I call Trump shock shaking things up, um I think there's a buying opportunity likely, not certain, but likely in the near future. And I'm intending to buy with both paws or fist as the case may be when that happens. And if I'm wrong, I'm planning to buy anyway because I'm I'm that convinced of the copper thesis for years going forward. >> That that is remarkable statement because considering the fact that you're a lot more bullish on copper than at current levels. I'm not saying long long-term at current levels than you than you seem to be with gold and silver. You're not saying I'm buying with both hands and feet right now with gold and silver. In fact, saying quite the opposite. So the fundamentals for copper just seem that much stronger than gold. Well, let's say yes. I mean, basically the the fundamentals for copper seem that much stronger and it's in particular unlike uranium which also has similar supply constraints and in a similar necessity case on the use side. So, I really like uranium for you could almost cookie cutter what I said about copper and paste it over on uranium with the big difference being that, you know, if there's another Chernobyl scale event that could completely take our uranium specs, you know, out to the behind the woodshed and thrash them, you know, for good. That can't happen with copper. There is no copper reactor meltdown that's going to scare the world out of copper or something, right? So, uh, you know, I'm also actually bullish on oil and I want to say oil and gas, but mostly oil at some point going forward. I agree with Rick Rule's, you know, comments about how much he loves buying hate, right, is one of his famous things and the the sector being starved of capital and at some point, yeah, I think, you know, the oil will go higher. But, you know, we're still facing voluntary supply constraints. we're facing economic uncertainty. It's much more sensitive to the economy. Um like Dr. Copper in the short run, whereas uranium is is used for base load power and uh we've talked about this before. I think in three of the last four recessions, uranium went up and the one that it went down was the GFC and it was already crashing down from a peak in 2007. So arguably that had nothing to do with the GFC. Anyway, >> yeah, >> I'm getting the point. The point is that there are many things that you can look at and make really strong bull cases for, but copper is the one that just seems the strongest. And you asked me to compare it to gold and or silver. You know, the difference there is that going to your your inflation question, you know, what is $4,000 plus gold telling us? Could it be that, you know, that we've actually arrived? that, you know, all these scary and negative things that we've been, you know, critics of the government have been saying for years. Could it be that $4,000 goal is the destination? Or, you know, many of us said, you know, maybe four or $5,000 goal. Well, it's it's it's getting close. It's getting in that neighborhood. So, it is possible. I'm not predicting this. Here come the Rotten Tomatoes, David. It is possible that we have just seen a peak and that it's September of 2011 all over again and that the next big move is downwards in gold and silver. This is not my expectation. It's not how I'm betting. But I cannot tell you that it's impossible and that gold has to go up from here from from 4,000 and change. Come on. It could be that a lot of the damage that that we've worried about is priced in in which case there could be a bare market ahead. Whereas I don't see that in copper at all. Like it's not that I'm more bullish on copper than gold or silver. It's that I feel greater confidence in the upward trajectory for for copper than just about anything else right now. >> Put it this way. What news would you need to see to give you absolute confidence that this bull rally is either at the end or there's a lot more room to climb. In other words, we'd have complete different conversation. You give me certainty. Would it be central banks all of a sudden rotating? back on gold again. Are we still talking? >> Oh, let's talk about gold. I meant I meant gold. Yeah. Um, sorry. So, what central banks, as you know, have been buying gold. The world gold council has reported that the that the central banks of the east primarily, Poland, Eastern central banks, Eastern European and China have been the main buyers of gold this year. That's one. So, maybe that stops that that shifts the narrative. Maybe Trump reverses trade policies. This is actually part of part of my bull case, David. And and for all those people hating me for even mentioning that it might go into a bare market or having any caution whatsoever. Um, you know, I'm I'm actually on their side more than they realize or understand. I absolutely agree or that you didn't quite say this, but it is my view that the central bank gold buying is a paradigm shift. It is absolutely a one-way door. Russia and China certainly they're not going to go back to saying oh it's okay to rely on the US to manage our financial lifeblood right and the diversification around the world is is very clear and it's not just our the US's um geopolitical opponents it's everybody around the world uh you know even our our allies are repatriating their gold you know that's really telling us something I I keep saying our I am a US citizen uh but I think of myself rather as a citizen of the world. At any rate, so I think this is huge, David. And I and I don't think that a you know another 2011 to 2015 bare type market is at all likely. But I can't responsibly look you in the eye and say it can't happen or absolutely it will not happen. Certainty is not an option. And that's why I don't I'm not tell I haven't been telling everybody to sell. I've been telling everybody, make sure you lock in your gains. You know, it's different. Prepare to um be defensive. And and that leads me to, I think, the more useful or constructive answer to your point here. And that is I have not decided to sell. I don't think I'm smart enough and I don't think anybody else is smart enough to figure out where this market is going to top. So instead of trying to call the top, I have a system. I think we've talked about it before, David. I call it an upside maximizer. It's a kind of variation on a trailing stop thing that ratchets higher so that instead of selling half on the first double the way my mentor Doug Casey taught me 20 odd years ago, um, I put an upside maximizer on the first double and I let it ride as long as it keeps going. And then when it rolls over, I can either recover my initial investment or take all the profits or if I'm worried about that company or the markets, I can take all my money off the table. You know, at that point, it's up to me to decide what's going on and what to do about it. But at the very least, I reach what Rick Ro likes to call the point of no concern, which is a thing of beauty. Now, here's the answer to your question. If that happens to one company, it can be idiosyncratic to that company or maybe that country where it operates. But if that happens across my portfolio, boom, boom, boom, boom, all my upside maximizers are being triggered. Well, that's a market move. And then that's something that I need to think about, okay, how do I want to deal with this? And if at the very least I just take all of my initial investments back off the table, then I'm beyond the point of no concern. And even if there is a bare market, I actually can't lose money. And if I, you know, I end up taking less money in the end, I still win. Whereas if I take more off the table, if I'm really worried about it and I take more off the table, you know, I can win a lot. I can lock in huge gains and still leave some money on the table in case the market goes back up again. So, you don't have to do what I do. You don't have to copy me. Uh, you know, the upside maximizer report, if you don't mind my saying so, David, is a free download on our website. But the main point, audience, is you should have a plan. You should have an exit strategy. All your veteran investors, all the ones who've managed to make and keep money will tell you you've got to have an exit strategy. And a belief that gold and silver have to reach the moon before I even worry about that is a dangerous belief. You should have an exit strategy. Now, that's that's the takeaway. >> Let's finish off on miners. I wonder if the same logic applies to the gold miners. Um and by the way, you can check out um Lobo Tigra's website. He gives commentary on individual stocks. And of course, if you like what we're doing right now, feel free to subscribe if you haven't already. You'll get daily updates on financial news with experts. Let's take a look at the GDX again. Big sell off today following what happened with gold and silver. I say big because it moved literally almost 10% in one trading session. This is October 16th, which is yesterday. This is October 17th, which is today. We're talking about 9% move in one day, which is significant. And it's bottoming out around $78 a share. Uh it's moved up since the beginning of the year. It's moved up about uh 126 27%. Well, it was 120. It was 14. It was 150 before today's selloff. But yeah, still 125% year-to- date move. Taking profits on these miners were not. Depends on what you mean by taking profits. Like people take that wrong. They think, "Oh, he's saying to sell everything and gold's going to the moon. What an idiot." That's not what I'm saying. Again, you could you could just recover your initial investment. You could recover your initial investment plus some or you could take all of your winnings and leave only your initial investment. Different ways to play this depending on your your risk outlook there. All I'm saying is that if something has changed in that market or in that company, nobody goes broke taking profits. But I think what the more interesting point that you're bringing up or that I think is related to what you're bringing up is if this was 2011 all over again and I don't think it is but if it was what happened in 2011 was that the stocks led the metals lower by a by months like in 2011 when gold went up to 1911 intraday you know I remember when it hit a thousand we were all breaking out the champagne on the way up. And we thought if it ever hit 1500, that would be nirvana, right? All the gold companies would just be printing cash. We'd all be driving Lambos and everything. Wow. If if gold could just hit 1500, how amazing that would be. And it went screaming past that up to 1900. So, no surprise, people were selling their gold stocks. They were taking profits that, you know, those Lambos weren't going to drive themselves. So the stocks led the way down in 2011. Like it it seemed like the smart money figured gold had gone too far too fast and so let's let's get some money off the table. That doesn't seem to be happening yet this time. And even that move that you pointed out on that chart, you know, that's that's not even twice the move in the metal. Like usually the stocks will give you something like 3, four, 5x leverage to the underlying moves in the metal. So if the smart money was saying, "Oh, that's it. it's time to get out. I think we would have seen a much bigger move down in the stocks today. And I think if the metals had peaked, at least recent history tells us, you know, an encouraging thing is that the stocks have not been leading the way down. Like if if if gold and silver reaching the levels they've had were too far, unsustainable. You know, all the smart money would have been selling the stocks, taking profits more than profits, and getting out of harm's way, I think, starting months ago. So, I actually find it quite encouraging. Okay, yeah, the stocks were off today. So were the metals. You know, that's normal, but we're not we're not looking at one of those alligator jaw charts where the stocks and the metals are telling us different things. When that happens, that's time to worry. So, not time to worry yet. We'll we'll see what happens next week. If uh you're right and things just recover or this is actually the return of 2011 all over again, we'll see. Plenty more to discuss either way. So, uh, we're we'll follow you in the meantime. Where do we go to do that, Lil? >> independentspeculator.com. I have a free weekly, uh, art, uh, newsletter called the digest, and you can see if you like my thinking there. You know, I'm I'm actually not trying to be the rain on the parade, though. That's how they call me. I'm I'm actually >> You said that like seven times. Have you been getting a lot of hate mail? Have you been >> Maybe I'm being overset. No, I'm not like I'm not personally upset, David. But what bothers me about this is that the people who are giving me this push back, those are the people who are trying to help. Those are the people who get it. The gold and silver bulls, right, who understand what real money is, and I'd hate for them to wait for years, be right, but not make money or not keep the money they made. Anyway, so check it out. >> I wonder if those people who are upset at you recently bought in. So, cuz you bought in at $1,500. >> Yes. >> I mean, are you really upset now for any reason? >> Right. I I don't know. >> That's not my impression. I I can't I should conduct a poll, David. I'll find out. >> Yeah. >> But my impression is >> that it's it's not the Johnny come lately. It's it's it's the long-suffering bulls who are like, "No, this is it. This is finally our day in the sun. Don't rain on my parade." >> Well, it's been Well, yeah, I'm I understand. It's It's been their day in the sun for a year and a half. It's up 120 something% since 2024. I'm talking about gold. Anyway, um great talk, Lobo. I appreciate it. Follow Lobo at the independentspeculator.com. And as always, thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.