Nuclear Energy: The podcast discusses the renewed interest in building nuclear reactors, highlighting the industry's hesitance to lead due to high initial costs and regulatory challenges.
Mining Sector Insights: The hosts delve into recent mining news, including a significant merger between Anglo and Tech, and the frothy market conditions at the Beaver Creek Precious Metal Summit.
Gold Market Dynamics: The sentiment at the Beaver Creek summit was positive, with no complaints about gold prices, though there was a noted absence of euphoria compared to past cycles.
Company Spotlight: IM Gold is highlighted as a potential acquisition target, with expectations of a deal within the next 12 months, driven by its attractive assets.
Uranium Market Potential: Despite the industry's quiet phase, uranium is seen as an enticing investment opportunity due to its potential role in powering data centers and AI developments.
Strategic Investments: The podcast covers significant investments, such as Qatar's $500 million stake in Ivanhoe Mines, emphasizing the growing role of sovereign wealth funds in mining.
Market Speculation: There's discussion on speculative investments in rare earths and scandium, driven by government interest and strategic mineral demand.
Industry Challenges: The conversation touches on the challenges of balancing government policies with industry needs, particularly in the context of coal royalties and capital mobility.
Transcript
Apparently, we're going to build a lot of nuclear reactors. You know how the IEA instead of talking about how to balance energy markets went to this whole how are we going to net zero and now that just full woke up and gone, okay, we kind of got ahead of ourselves. This is an industry where everyone wants to be third. They want to build the third reactor. They don't want to build the first or the second. And I just think this is the the issue with uh nuclear right now is >> another week, more mining news, more things that we did not expect would happen this week. And we're joined by a marupial who who is he's not Australian. I'm I'm I'm constantly confused by by your um your wannabe identity, Mr. Koala. Thank you so much for joining us for our weekly rap. >> I've been on the road for three weeks. Has anything interesting happened? That's why that's why we we dialed you in to find out what you found out that has been interesting on the road. So, we're going to talk about all the you know the Beaver Beaver Creek you've been to very recently. Um I know I know you're obsessed with the majors and especially when the majors do a dance together and we finally seen a big dance between Anglo and Tech. We're going to get your thoughts on that. The market is frothy. So, we're going to go through all of that. And with grade control JD we've got we've got a wild list of things going on like >> totally home with you know we've got a got to talk about barracks for four milear that's just an amazing deposit and sweet deal sail will deliver again >> plenty to run through kala why don't you kick us off mate as trav said you have been to be creek amongst a couple other conferences in the uh the recent past so what's the what's the temperature of the market what's the the chatter around the the conference halls telling you at the moment Look, Beaver Creek is a town, a village that I joked to a few people. I feel like I'm in Epcot, Switzerland. But there's a sister uh village called Bachelor Gulch where a few of us were staying. And basically across all of these villages, there is um a free shuttle that you can summon on an app on your phone. I stress this into the way to say that you are these locations even though we're off season are places that for an industry that destroys value as much as it creates value, we really have no business holding conferences there. And given it is the Beaver Creek Precious Metal Summit and what I just said about these real estate locations, you can imagine the cost. I paid $7 for a club soda at 300 p.m. in the Park High at lobby bar in Beaver Creek. Um, so maybe gold the gold price is tell us telling us something about inflation, but more importantly, uh, the best way I can sum up sentiment is I heard no one complaining about the cost of attending the conference at the Beaver Creek Precious Metal Summit. Not a one. How about the the sort of sense of euphoria though? Because I was actually just chatting with someone from from sort of states side before and their sort of commentary was that it wasn't as frothy. You know, no one's no one's complaining about the gold price. Everyone's chuffed and the producers are making money, but that sense of euphoria. What was that sort of like there? Uh I think everyone's say that they've seen bigger parties, but you have to remember with every cycle there's evolutions of uh the sector investors. You have new people, but you have the memories of the last cycle. I don't know. I I just, you know, you guys know I came into the business uh on the back of the China super cycle. So, I'm kind of used to having a realistic uh real politic view of through cycle economics. And you could just kind of see one of the metaphors I'm using is out of 20 projects, one will make a pile of money, one will return your capital but not your time, and 18 belongs somewhere in Dante's Inferno. and you just kind of felt that everyone felt the majority of projects were going to be lovely. It's it's a weird feeling if you've been through a cycle in our business before and but it's a very precious metal specific thing and who knows maybe this is a mega reate. Maybe Tether is going to buy a year's worth of production with all of their profits. I I don't know. But you can recognize when you're like, "Okay, this is a little strange." The there were there are two specific um yeah things I wanted to tease out of you from from Beaver Creek. One is I think you and I share a a common view on the attractiveness of IM Gold from a an acquisition perspective. you know, particularly Cotay and um obviously, you know, the the West African assets need need to be dealt with, but but um running into Beaver Creek that you know, IM Gold had a tremendous run. Did you get any sort of sense that there's going to be an outcome for IM Gold in the near future? >> Well, I think the base case was always that it was probably happening in 12 months at the next uh Denver Gold Forum or some point in the next 12 months. Maybe someone wants to get proactive and come in earlier, but it seems like it's very clear that the uh the senior gold producer of Canada is ready to come over the top on anyone who wants to step foot in their neighborhood. Uh the question is when >> 100%. >> Yeah. Look, and I look I kind of was seeing the way the stock was trading >> throughout August post 2Q results and frankly through September there's no October Cotay site visit. He kind of looks around like oh god is someone actually going to take a run at these guys and find a way to try to make it so can't do the deal and it didn't happen. Look, the exploration results were incredible, but uh that came out on their neg and monster project, but let's just call a spade a spade here. It seems to me like Jackson Hole where Powell signaled that he was going to cut rates supercharged this rally straight into Denver gold. And you saw it in the what's the joke? The first reaction to the Feds, the wrong reaction. First we popped, then we dropped. And I was like, okay, well, now what? The EBID do per ounce of some of these majors has been remarkably consistent throughout the years. And now we look at it and you take ASIC, you take spot gold, and you go, all right, we've 2x the margin of these companies. And the reality is, if gold's going to stay at the spot price, that's telling you something about inflation. that's telling you about where costs are going to go. I mean, if you're going to run SPA, you should really run 3,000 an ounce, not 3600 if you're trying to do a NAV analysis. >> Yeah, I I do I do think everyone kind of under underappreciates the effect of inflation to what margin of these like gold miners might be over time. But having said that, everyone's running not running a spot case and no one's no one's doing deals based off a spot case. like the corporates have a have a fear of paying too much still and and they're all everyone's being conservative with a price deck but I think you've got to be more aggressive on your price deck but also much more aggressive on your inflation expectations for costs in you know in a sense too which not nullifies the some of the price upside would just I would just close off that point Travis though that everyone felt you really felt that if you weren't in the party you were missing out there there was a FOMO dynamic that was extremely unique and very rare And yeah, >> FOMO drives deals, mate. Um, the other thing I wanted to ask you about was I did notice you tweet when asked about your best ideas from Beaver Creek, you cited >> uh Mchuan and also Saturn medals. I was surprised to see Saturn there, but please please elaborate on both. Um, on the first one, I think that sometimes the most beautiful music and the most powerful speech is what's left unsaid. And on Saturn, what I would say is it's a very fascinating puzzle because it's a lower grade open pitable and apparently heap leachable surf uh operation in WA. Um, and it's three golden quarts but with no sulfides. So, you grind into a pulp, you'll leech it. And you sit there and you go, "Okay, it's trading at one of those P discounts where you go. Someone's as smart as me or even half as smart as me would have picked up on this at this point." And the only excuse I'm able to get so far and I'm trying to pull up all the metallurgical and flushy work I can on it is, oh yeah, there's not a lot of heat bleaches in WA. Uh, this is just isn't how WA gold fields work. Uh, so still doing the work, kicking the tires. Um, and we'll see. We'll see. But it just it jumped off the page as I went into the meeting very explicitly just going your valuation implies there's a critical problem here. And I came out of it going, I got to find the flaw in the flowheet. And if there's no flaw in the flow sheet, you Aussies are just getting lazy. And given how much you Aussies were willing to come all the way to Quebec for a great lithium discovery in the next green bushes less than 5 years ago, I don't know you guys to be lazy when it comes to uh traveling abroad. >> And it's right in your backyard. >> We're scared of we're scared of bleaches. That's for for sure. even though we've got a tremendous history of of heap leach operations um and and yeah and this this gold price you can you can get away with a lot more and so I I do think if like all else stays constant Saturn will get financed. Um >> no just you look at the call it the elevated gold price they use in their deck for an updated NAV and it's it's a joke of a it's a massive discount. It's a massive discount compared to uh the actual spot gold price. So even if when you do the haircuts, you go, "Okay, this thing's just this thing's trading like Northern Dynasty." And you're like, "Is it Northern Dynasty?" No, just saying like it's trading one of those discounts where you're like, "There's got to be something wrong with it." And so far, I haven't found the flaw. And I spent the whole meeting on that. Like where do you find in a gold euphoria in a first world jurisdiction two and a half million ounces where there's a clear line of sight to three million ounces of heat leachable gold. And by the way, last I checked WA is a goddamn desert. So I can't think of a better place to do a heat bleach because I've seen them in Nevada and I've seen them in Arizona. A desert's a desert. >> The other thing with heat bleaches, mate, is um disappointing. They're not going to need Sanvic ground support. >> They must be one of the few gold miners in the state in the country that wouldn't need Sanvic ground support because we know Sanvic ground supports the entire gold industry in Australia right now. >> Underground ones. Yeah. >> Underground mines. Yeah. And mate, we are getting to go out to the magnificent QA site where they >> imminent. Imminent >> imminent hundreds of employees working day and night to keep the West Australian gold industry fighting. And we know they've got these manufacturing hubs all around the world. So there's people in every kind of pocket of the earth fighting to keep everyone going. Gold mine, bit a base metal mine. >> We got an email from a base metal miner in North America recently saying, "I love that Sanvic sponsors you because we use Sanvic ground support in our base metals mine." So it's a global phenomenon, mate. >> It is. And why not get on board and use the best ground support in the industry. Get in touch with Sanvic ground support and put an order in today. Whether you want to do it on the app or just give a Derek Herd a call. details in the show notes, mate. >> Alts, mesh, and all of the rest, mate. Sandy ground sport. >> Go, Sandy. How was the temperature in Uranium Land when you uh when you mentioned over there uh a couple weeks ago? Obviously, the the big sort of shindig they've got every year. >> Uh apparently, we're going to build a lot of nuclear reactors. I haven't seen an FID on any of them, but it's funny like just freestyling with you guys here. You know how the IEA was talking about instead of talking about how to balance energy markets went to this whole how are we going to net zero the energy market from an emissions perspective and now that just woke up and gone okay we kind of got ahead of ourselves um I just see this whole oh we're going to have this huge call on nuclear demand growth And no one's actually taken a step back it seems like and gone okay where's Vogle 5678 in Georgia who is actually and I think actually uh I think it was Kamico CFO Grant Isaac uh I heard this second third hand basically said this is an industry where everyone wants to be third they want to build the third reactor they don't want to build the first or the second and I just think this is the issue with uh nuclear right now is we know China's got the teams building and everything, but where is the Western will to redevelop the skill and build these reactors and then give the capital the return it needs to justify it. So, it's it's fun. We'll uh we'll see. But SP raising raising piles of money and uh >> the financial reactors humming and uh yeah it's >> don't really have any involvement in that sector right now. In hindsight I should just have bought atom prom in size and never said a goddamn word about uranium ever again. >> Yeah it's it's fascinating. I mean to to the point of building the the third reactor, we've we've seen the the first if you like reactors built in in Vogle and in in the UK as well and the uh the bill that came back was a bit bigger than most people were expecting. So maybe we're a bit traumatized on that front. >> Oh, I'm sorry. Uh I mean, will you actually get it back and all the cash flow? I mean, what when are we going to get a full payback on QB2? It's not like we know. Actually, those of us who have been around a cycle realize that there's not a lot of people I know actually to build these things right and tight and on time. >> We'll have to keep waiting for those unit SMRs to be firing out the back of the factory. >> But but there are stories that we all want to believe and we want to believe the dream. And you're not going to convince everyone, but like everyone's convinced we're going to build all these reactors. Um, totally there for it, but don't we need to see an FID or two? >> I think uranium is like one of the more enticing kind of parts of the market right now o only because like everyone's attention is imprecious and um yeah, uranium is like relatively quiet even though it's you know just full of full of you know very retail kind of sentiment crowd but they're relatively quiet right now. So I'm like kind of just just based on that somewhat drawn to to opportunities there. >> I wonder I wonder if that's the mining kind of perspective though as well, right? Because if you come at it from the tech slant and the people talking about data centers and these types of things, they still talk a fair bit about getting the reactors to power the data centers for the AI kind of roll that. It's just us in in the mining world are a bit more preoccupied with with precious metals at the minute. Who knows? It's hard to measure these things. >> Well, it's it's also a snap back to reality. If you've created an app that has a marginal cost of zero because just replicated in an app store, call me up when Zuckerberg is actually financing a nuclear reactor. Like, we're just talking about a different game here. It's different ROIC's. It's a different spreadsheet. It's a different level of complexity. This isn't code. This is Adams. This is regulations. This is physical things. It's not just the dopamine in our heads anymore. This is totally true. But I would say the the kind of circa 500 billion in capex that the big tech group together is is spending. You know, had you said that five years ago, that would have been pretty jaw-dropping for for most people to try and take on board that these guys would collectively spend that much in in capex. That's a a complete kind of dynamic change, don't you think? >> Let's see what the return is on it. They're chasing a thematic. >> Facebook, >> I'm not arguing that it'll be a good return. >> Meta Meta used to be called Facebook. >> Now Meta is going to be an AI uh what are the what are we calling these? Super cyclingers, super adopters, supercaler. Hyperscalers. They're hyperscalers. >> Hyperscalers. >> I mean, at the end of the day, the funny thing the funny thing is, just given where I'm going tomorrow for a site visit, why couldn't we do solar with a lithium ion battery and probably undercut nuclear? That's both a lithium and a cesium plug. [Laughter] We we could unpack a whole another debate there, but to to to move us on to the the track and that the topics we wanted to unpack. The frothiness in the market is something that Tra and I have both noticed kind of astoundingly in small sort of pockets of of the market here. It's been pretty astounding. >> There's like some big pockets of the market. Well, it's very it's very fragmented, but in the >> if you're an exploration neurology play with something in the US and if you got a like if if you're just near a rare earth thing like oh my god >> you're near the White House and and the an OTC US listing like >> did we ever actually see that interview where Senator Bergam uh actually said that Coliseum was a mission critical asset? My first site visit was mountain. It is >> It is truly the greatest thing in the world to watch right now. Like >> I'm sorrying I'm breaking. It's just it's so I'm not going to >> We've got to play >> promise myself. I'm not going to >> We've got to play the Lockxley video. >> So you've got you've got Yeah. Obviously like Dine a billion dollar market cap. now lostly is like 3,000% return on on neurology to to datine and MP and did you see did you catch the music video I'll snip it in now play >> you sent I I don't know Lockxley so educate me guys I'm prepared on the others but educate me >> I don't I don't have much to add here other than this it's like I could talk about the project but we're not going to be talking about much we're just like this is it's just like meme stock this is memetock stuff this is you retail mania. >> Every announcement is a map and on one side you've got dine, you know, tenement on one side and then the other side you've got mountain pass. That is all you need to know about it. And there's no better time to play the the latest music video from this company [Music] next door. Lockxley and Mojave bringing you more. America needs supply. Yo, the time is now. Mind the market. LK Y show you how. Mojave corridor rapping with the beat right next to MP. America needs to fly. Don't front, don't wait. Lockley's got the key. Trying to feed the whole state. We got what's underneath. Got antimony and we be carrying the heat. We got what's best for the future and stacked with re. We always playing it clean. Rice on the tech. New process, brand new. Something that has never been done or seen. Yo, government, where you at? Time to step in line. You want sovereignty? Well, this is the sign to step aside while we work hard under this heat. We keep it on shore. Lock got the medals and we bringing you more. >> Hilarious. Uh yeah, >> it's a bull market. >> This is this is big bull market behavior. I almost like I'm just tempted to to to to sell like yeah, most my portfolio and just like leave whatever I've got left in just the dumbest stuff possible because this it's like you don't get rewarded for being smart in this market. We never actually spoke too much about it, but like just for a second on the MP materials deal, Koala, like how did you sort of think about the the structure and you know you you sort of base yourself in a different part of the world to to ask what is the what was the the feeling around that deal? >> Uh the US has decided to play by China's rules. I think it's a good industrial policy. If I could change anything as I understand the deal, the one thing I would change is I would not have made it a financial backs stop where if MP sells their NDPR products for 90, they get a check for 20 to true it up to 110. I would have done it as a minimum physical offtake where if you can't sell it for that number, you can sell it to us the US government. and I would have created a stockpile. Um I think it has totally revolutionized how we think about strategic minerals. I think unfortunately also it has inspired greed where prudence should always still have a seat at the table in multiple of these uh situations. Uh but it's a good deal. I think there will be more of them. >> I think you're right. I think you're right. Should we Should we unpack the the Anglo deal now? I'm curious to >> Sorry. More of them in uh in datine. Surely you jo Are we going to Are we going to touch on the other speculative froths or not? >> Oh, you want to talk about the um the Scandium one? Well, this is this is interest. I'm like my god. Like we all know how small the Scandia market is, but um but you put Freedelland behind something and there's just a rocket ship and then Freedelland's rocket ship back solves the value because then you get the US government involved as well. Like >> it it marries up plenty of parts of the conversation we're going to have today. Right. >> In so many ways, Jonas, in so many ways. Look. >> Yeah. >> Here's the conundrum. the lead times to get scandium into and it is an absolutely miracle metal. You adopt it in alloys, you put it in Bloom Energy, uh, Bloom Boxes and you can see what the BE is ticker in the US. You can see how that stock's doing. They need scandium oxide in their boxes and they're probably the biggest consumer of scandium right now in the Western world. I look at all of this and there's a clear case for a western like scandium boom. The problem is the chicken and egg. It always has been that you need the security of supply at a price, but no one wants to do the R&D and the certification at Airbus or Boeing to then incorporate it if they don't know they can actually get the material. Um, with that said, Sunrise, it it has some very nice high grades. There's a 600 g per ton cut off. There's a 300 g per ton cut off. Without getting into the like, look, Burough next door, Ningan, right up the road. 155 gram per ton cutoff. 300 gram per ton at Sunrise is about a 470 from memory. Grand per ton reserve about 1.7 million tons. Ningan's 410 at 1.4. Look, if we're actually going to have Scandium, those assets in the what I'll call the Biffield, do Ningan belt and provide the next century of Scandium for the Western world. But it realistically it's going to require government support so that the consumers understand that the supply will be there and are therefore willing to pay the price that will incentivize the private capital to go to um build those assets. But having walked around a few uh cattle paddics uh two hours drive outside of do, these things are going to be really easy to build once uh the policy is there. Simple as that. I I feel like there's this disconnect between like, you know, what what what what equity investors should expect versus like the like you there's all this like euphoria at the moment because governments suddenly kind of may maybe potentially underpinning the economics for equity holders, but I just don't like I don't have the same level of confidence that it works out that way for equity holders. Like you sure you just you bring on new supply into a small market. Look, Nio, look, Niop with Elk Creek has raised over hund00 million of fresh capital in the last four months. >> Um, SRL, Sunrise is roofed, for lack of a better term. It's if you can create pizzazz, you can create stories. At the end of the day, the way our industry, and this is something I've been workshopping and I'll share with you guys, is because tech every cycle creates incredible amounts of value and wealth, people stay in the sector. So with every passing cycle in technology, the average IQ, the median IQ actually gets higher. In our industry, with every cycle, there's about a base of specialists. And at the peak of the cycle, five to 10x of the specialists are generalists in their first cycle. And they then get washed out. a few stay around as specialists, but the reality is if you think about the what I'll call the historical IQ and trauma of the investors in our psych in our sector. At the bottom of the cycle, it's just guys like you and me. At the top, our capital is dwarfed by people who think they know so much more than us, but have not seen a cycle before. and they'll if they get burnt they'll never come back again. So it's really like almost looking at shell decline curves. Um so you have this small base of investors and on top of it people with so much more capital when our sector gets going but they don't want to listen or I'd say there's a hubris. There's a natural hubris. >> It's it's something fascinating to to think about. I I can't help but think about how interest rates and and the like over the last 15 plus years have have distorted those those cycles with just you know a zero interest rate policy for for n on a decade and stuff has pushed the the kind of classical cycle completely out of whack to the advantage of of of tech and and the like. >> Speaking of tech, shall we? >> Let's jump in. What's your what's your first pass thoughts? >> Why not just do the joint venture? How screwed is QB2 that they feel compelled to do this deal? And what compelled Anglo to do this deal? Why couldn't Duncan, Jonathan, and Gary just got in the room and agreed on a QB2 colossi joint venture? minus the fact of course that we don't yet know how much capital and what is need to be done for QB2 to be finished for lack of a better word or rescoped. I mean if I was if I was Gary and from from my voice you can tell I'm not. Uh my big question when it comes time for the joint venture conversation is going to be well has QB2 performed has it hit a budget or hit a operating plan at all because I'm 44 of Kolasi Mitsui's 12 Mitsui Natsumitomo the tax partner at QB2 so how do we know what the NAV split should be on this joint venture until we see how QB2 performs it it's missed multiple uh budgets. Um and that's why I kind of keep coming back to this thought that it feels like this is a merger of panic on both sides because Anglo I speculating completely but probably felt like they had to do something or it was eer and tech. I mean, Danny Mulchuk was added as a special adviser a week before this deal, and it sounds like QB2 actually third quarter 2025 results for tech are going to be mustwatch, must must listen conference call because tell us again what the new number is to get QB2 to spec. And I empathize with Jonathan. Uh this was not his project. uh he got brought as CFO and uh Ara Don Lindsay. Uh Don Lindseay is the one agreeing with this project. And I think his one mistake in all of this is that he didn't stand up to the board uh when Glen Core came knocking. He should have said let's just do the deal. Uh but I also then have to say you look at where tech stands today and because of the coal price where Glen Core is that looks like a smart move. Um, but at the end of the day, this is I mean the Bloomberg article about how this all came together a day after it got announced openly said Keville made it clear that he would not approve any deal that didn't involve tech being headquartered in Canada which for a company that has okay trail which is their smelter in Canada for zinc plus red dog which is going to hit a wall in about 5 years because they haven't gotten a deal to do the expansions and the brownfield. The zinc business of tech is maybe worth a billion2 billion reflecting the fact that trail a zinc smelter that's been around for decades in Canada no one's buying that in and of itself. So the only actual nav of value in Canada is Highland Valley, which isn't that great. So the audacity to have a company call itself a Canadian champion after they sold their Canadian crown jewels to Glen Core with who their chairman Emoretus crucified in the press. Like there's a lack of self-awareness about what this company is. And that's why I joked if I was the Chileans I would say >> I mean you could you could say the same about like >> you could say >> Angloia headquarters in London you know what I mean like there's um I I and like whether Keeble demanded that or not you the Canadian government was going to to have like more ownorous demands about um about the commitments to Canada. >> The reason but the reason the Canadian government has these demands is because of what Keville said with Glen Cortech in 2023. And yet they let Gle pie the crown jewels of tech. Tech is not and this is your headline for the tech is not a Canadian company. It's a Chilean company. It's a South American company. And you know we can also say this for the London Mining or Lendian Gold. They have offices in Vancouver. But if I'm the Chileans, I'd be looking around going hey uh QB2 Kalasi Los Bronzis with the Andina joint venture. Hey guys, Anglo, you have a big offset. Why isn't Santiago the headquarters of Anglo? If we're going to get nationalist, if we're going to get nationalist, let's talk. Let's really get into it. So, well, >> that that was that was one of the defining for for Rio Tinto. You could say that for so many companies. >> Yeah. Yes. And I I I agree with you. Like >> not for nothing. Not for nothing, guys. on Rio on Rio uh between the Brits and your country folk you without getting into all the nuances of Zuken Gorge you guys ran out of town a French CEO who created a ton of value at Rio by not buying copper and just buying back stock when everyone thought consensor was 50 60 bucks. Uh oh, it it all of this it's I'm just saying it's a it's a crazy little nuance of all of this. But look, I think if I had to say it's clear no one's coming for tech. I think tech shareholders have to decide if they want to do a deal now or they want to wait till 2029 when Keville has no say anymore. And I think if you're a tech shareholder, obviously you can vote by just selling your stock. But it's a function of you need to see what this QB2 update and plan looks like and how confident you are in it. If it looks really messy, you are going to go, "Yeah, let's do a deal." But if you're an Anglo shareholder, you're going to be very curious um how much QB2 is going to cost to get to plan. And you're also then going to I struggle to get to all the valuations. I know copper trades at a pure play, but if this deal all does come together, I think if a no chiller shows up, it'll show up on the Anglo side. >> I think the valuations of these both of these companies, I think if you're the BHP or the Rio boards, it's really hard to justify paying these numbers. Which is why if I had to come all together, I think this Gary will extract a pound of flesh for the joint venture to actually happen at Kalasi. If this deal does happen, I think this combined company is probably going to become a new antifagosta. By that I mean probably becomes a funding short um for a lot of folks because yeah we then have to take the risk of QB2 plus uh the joint venture integration because the reason the stocks went up on the deal is it's all about QB2 colassi which is why I keep going back to if we all were rational and we were all thoughtful here this should have been just the QB2 colassi joint venture the way Mark Bristo and Gary Goldberg did the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture several years ago. But if you take QB2 out of an operating asset of tech and you put it into a joint venture, you have an existential crisis in Vancouver about what is tech metals, which is to say there's e there's ego in history. >> Oh, for for sure. Also like on the on the tech side, you've got a big funding issue that you're coming across. Now, I'm I'm I'm sure I'm sure Anglo has been shared with enough information to form a view on what that funding gap does look like. Enough for them to have a degree of confidence to pay a $4.9 billion special dividend to shareholders pre-deal completion themselves. Um but but like so and I'm curious why you think that the an intelle side when the on the tech side you you have a you need a 66.6% 6% threshold on both the A and B class uh shares to to prevent a deal here. And presumably the funding gap on the tech side could be an an attractive angle for an for an interloper who has a lower cost of capital to to get involved. >> If I ran BHP, which I never will, and I was looking at this, I would say, okay, even if QB2 took5 billion more dollars, I can handle that. like to get to the promised land. But I look at Anglo's portfolio, Colasi, KCO, you have the Broncess and Dena with all those synergies. Um, you have Ministryo like you have all assets. You have multiple assets. I I legitimately want I would love to have 22% of Antamina, but it's not operating UB2. I can fund the fix, but at what social cost of Vancouver? Um, do I have to move everyone there? Like, oh, and then Red Dog How do you unlock the value there? How can you inherit that situation? It it's just it's a it's just a trickier situation and ideally eventually this QB2 colossi joint venture should happen and by the way in 3 years which as much as we look at our P&Ls every day we look at our annual returns three years is a split second in our industry. You fast forward three years, tech would be a sitting duck. So I don't have to deal with tech now. W with with all that kind of said, the the the share price of Anglo since the BHB deal hasn't hasn't sort of performed despite them sort of making steps towards carving up the business in like they sort of broke out >> but the multiples expanded massively. >> No, they've um yeah >> pre pre the pre-announcement BHP was 2150 in London, Anglo was like 22 22 and a half went to 25. If BHP went down to 20 because people are wondering if BHP is going to come over. You back out this special dividend. Angler goes back to sub22. That's 1.10. I mean, what was the proposal for at the time? It was 089 plus the spin co share. So, we could back out Kumba in there as well, but that's I'm sure BHP is going to have that conversation. And if I had my brothers, I think BHP should have a very serious conversation about do you buy Anglo and you say we're going to let Escandida gracefully gracefully go into middle age with two concentrators, not three, even if it takes it higher up the cost curve because ironically that would probably create the copper super cycle that would pay for the whole deal. Then you do the third concentrator in 10 years. But uh that's great spreadsheet math. I'm not sure if it's socially palatable. Alrighty. I reckon we um we we we move to our our grade control koalas. This might be your first time joining us for for for grade control, but I you know I trust you you understand the concept. We're uh just going to run through a couple of um a couple of yeah corporate things that we've seen throughout the the week and and give them a grade of A to F. Kick us off. >> All righty. Let's let's do it. So first story is the US international development finance court looking to establish a up to5 billion joint venture fund with Orion. So both parties here would be contributing an equal share over time like I said sort of scaling up and all these sort of buzzwords that we've seen for a long time now. Critical minerals focus aimed at reducing supply anxiety. You know China the elephant in the room there. also with sort of similar structure to a deal that Orion did with the Abu Dhabi sovereign fund not too long ago. I I found I'm not sure about you guys surprisingly little coverage of this given the context of what we've been talking about with sort of government influence lately, but a a fund of this sort of size would be the the largest type structure and and uh investment unit that we've seen in the mining space in in quite a while. So there the the wording around it sort of made you think of it as another kind of arm for the US government to do deals in the metal space and and large scale deals at that. So I I would be super curious to see the the deal structure kind of like you touched on before with with MP materials there. Koala if if we're just talking plain vanilla equity stakes, project stakes, these sorts of things, it it kind of leaves a bit to be desired in my eyes because you need to leave the incentives in the west sort of strong like we we don't want to end up in a place where it's completely kind of China-ish with stateowned entities and the like. I think that's the the real risk of of disruption. So, as for rating, I I'll chuck a B to this one for the ambition because obviously we're just we're just talking about something here and I think the eventual structure that it takes is is super vital. Koala, over to you. >> E minus uh we need this fund. Um, and I have a ton of respect for Oscar, Dominic, Estavan, and the team at Orion, but the US government is not going to put money into a fund like this to make 12 to 15% or on the great deal, a 20% IRRa. They're doing this to rebuild a supply chain and structure and structuring and credit expertise is not where you go find your GP skills for what you're trying to accomplish. You need more equity, operational, venture capital. I will say I would feel so much better if I saw that uh Freedelland the Ivano group or the Lendine group were going to be the peas on this because that would be a we're not trying to structure it get a royalty and off it would be like nope we're going to go find great new deposits we're going to build mines maybe G might be involved here to build stuff just to pick a name or frankly If you're to operate stuff better, it's like I mean Matt Copper is closing in a month. Go get McMullen. Get an operator who's provenly made money and say so that's the one concern I have that Orion has built an incredible business. uh protecting the downside and structuring but being a GP for the US government is not just about protecting the downside. Uh you can do that anyway just because of what your capital is. It's can you drive can you make the mine that is tier three tier 1.5 through great operational skill set. So that's where I'm rambling here, but it's a great idea. I would I' rate can it rate it an A if I knew that it wasn't Orion just as the GP and you're like, we have great operators coming alongside us. That's the nuance to this. >> I give it a a B. Um, I think like at least Orion's better equipped to make positive capital allocation decisions in the sector than bureaucrats. Um, but and I don't think this will be the last the last partnership of the sort that we see between private equity established private equity groups and and uh governments. I'm think we'll see quite a few. And by the way, if if Dominic or anyone hears this, >> all I'm saying is >> show us who your operators are going to be because you've built a franchise that can actually partner with the US government, but you do some things incredibly well, but if you tell the US government you can make a 5% IR, but you can build a critical mineral supply chain for the next 50 years or you can make 15% but not create that supply chain and we still have a China dependency. The US government at a certain for certain other agendas is not profit maximizing. They're geopolitically maximizing optionality. >> I totally agree that disconnect between the the the strategic interest and credit a credit return interest like you can't quite reconcile them yet. There's a lot to play out there, but um we'll move on to the next one. We found out news that QARQ sovereign wealth fund QIA is putting 500 million US dollars into Ivanho mines for a 4% stake um at $12 Canadian a share. And the funds are earmarked to support Ivanho's uh exploration and their, you know, endeavors to continue to grow into both Africa and um and parts of Asia with um yeah, there's there's a bit of like this. You didn't see this one coming. We didn't see this one coming. It's a big deal. It's a big deal. It's a big new shareholder. I I give this one a I give this one an A. Um yeah, I I mean we had we had Willow on a couple weeks ago and and he talked about this this theme of of a multipolar world. Um and h you know, having these kind of like sovereign sources of capital really coming into the sector. they've got much lower cost of capital and um and I I just I just see this this investment from QIA as as kind of like lighting a fire under the optionality that Freedelland has with Ivanho. >> This one's absolutely an A. I think there was a couple question marks out there about the the the discount, but like Fre Friedeland's just the the master of his register. There's 45ish% in in three hands, which he's obviously very close with. 4% dilution, not massive in the scheme of things with obviously the challenges they've had in in recent times as well as just sort of pulling capital out of parts of the world that historically haven't been massive financiers of of mining projects. How about you? >> This is an A. Everyone was way Cula 26 27 guide and now it doesn't really matter. Robert at the core besides being one of the most brilliant people in the industry is one of the best people people in the world. He is not going to do this deal with the Qataris and then embarrass them with the guidance. Now, when we look at the guide, when it comes, even if free cash flow isn't quite where we want it to be in 2026 and the inflections in 2027, he's injected incredible capital into the business. So, what it doesn't matter anymore. And there's so much optionality in the portfolio at Ivanho that whether it's the western four lands or the stuff in Kazakhstan which they did a news release on a couple weeks ago. Frankly, I think they could have been more bullish. That's just me. Ding ding ding. Um, but I would say that the one surprise here it's the Qataris, not the Saudis. But A+ A+ all around. Clean sweep of A's there. Next next story guys is BHB and this one sort of broadened out with Anglo's decision but they are shutting down Saraji in in the Bowen Basin Saraji South 750 jobs uh going from BHB as well as making the threat of shutting down their trading training academy. And then you sort of see within about five minutes Anglo come out and make a call that sort of roughly 200 jobs will unfortunately go as well as they grapple with royalties, low coal prices and and the like there in in Queensland. So yeah, a lot of politicking with with this one with with BHB. Obviously they're they're playing real hard ball. We sort of saw the comments from Mike Henry really highlighting how if you if you chop away the the couple good years of returns that you get in the mining industry every every decade then it's not worth gritting your teeth through the other six seven years of the of the kind of cycle. Um >> who are we scoring incredibly >> who are we scoring on this? Are we scoring B? We scoring the policy or like what who are we scoring here? I'm I'm going to score the politicians because >> take it any take it any which way you like. And >> yeah, not to not to be, you know, super political because I think it's across the board. I think it's it's bipartisan and it's it's a D because one party brings it in, the other party is, you know, happy in quotation marks to keep the policy. So, it's a D on that part and there just needs to be a lot of understanding in how commodity cycles work. And yeah, it just goes to show how hard cutting out costs of of government are once they're sort of bedded in. What are your thoughts? >> Got to pay for the Olympics somehow. The question is, uh, are you going to still be in power when they come to town? >> Look, what was Paul Flynn's line? It's like, it's crazy. We have $200 coal and, uh, no one's making money in Queensland. >> Yeah. people people 10 years ago would have crawled over broken glass for $200 met coal. Um I think what PHP is doing is being sensible. Um it doesn't look like from the work I've done in the last year or two, it doesn't look like it's that many tons. What I do think it kind of sets off now is a conversation that probably will take several years, probably two or three years. And you have the Brisbane Olympics and what is it 32? uh looming over it, which is at some point these royalties have to be changed and in all likelihood there's a lot more pain to come in Queensland before those royalty changes are made. So BHP gets an A in my book. Queensland gets an F. And I would say Gary when he's going there trying to solve the Mount Ice or smelter problem can look at them and say, "I haven't shut down a coal mine voluntarily. I've done it cuz my investors told me I had to get net zero." Well, it's just a real tragedy that uh Queensland has kind of put a self-flicted wound with a cash grab at the time. And look, it it is what it is. I I don't take pleasure in this, even though the royalties in Queensland have reset the cost curve in a way that has made profits for Canadian, US, and other coal coal producers. Incredibly compelling. >> Yeah, this is an >> capital was mobile. >> This is an easy f because there's a massive massive cognitive dissonance with politicians who don't understand that capital is mobile. that exact point. There's like you think you think you can you can just erode the entire economics of of of capital intensive assets and the capital continues to flow into them. It's not how it works. Um f to the politicians for for just like you know thinking that's how economics works. It doesn't. Um to your point on uh on on on there's a on there's a multi-year conversation about these royalties. I think that's been happening. like I I I do think I do think this is actually a very interesting moment um that's being exacerbated and there's like a lot of a lot of like light on these royalties right now and it's building and it's building but no one's really paying attention in our sector because everyone's just focused on gold but what happens to what happens to the some of the equities um if there's a meaningful change in those royalties in the next next 12 months like I I think the probability of that is not baked in but I do think there's a um a high a higher probability and then he's been backed into some of those processes. >> I think the probabil I think the probability that everyone's assigning to it after the last 24 hours is probably too high of a probability. >> Give it a week or so and see what happens. See if see where people kind of settle. Yeah, nothing's going to happen overnight. The government obviously sort of putting it at nothing changing before 2930 and and maybe we land somewhere in between. Last one on grade control guys. Barrack's former Trev, take us away. Oh, >> I I was completely oblivious to to this project and how special it is, but sometimes you just you just like read read details of a project and you're like that is that this one just makes me happy. But m so so Barry, they put up some um new numbers on four mile. Four mile was discovered in 2016 and yeah, we got some high level kind of PA details on the project. This is a freaking beast. Um I'll I'll give you some of the the highle numbers. this 25 year mine life producing between 650 and 750,000 ounces peranom at a at a at a at a unit all in sustaining cost of a midpoint of $700 per ounce. That is crazy. Barricone is 100% of four mile there obvious synergies here with the Nevada gold mines joint venture which you mentioned J um which you mentioned Koala was put in place by um by by Bristo back then when when the joint venture was entered into between Newmont and um and Barrack for the Nevada gold mines uh for mile was excluded but the JV agreement allowed for mile to be added later if certain agreed investment or commercial feasibility triggers are met. Barakus has uh said that it anticipates for mile to um to eventually be contributed to Nevada gold mines at fair market value if certain criteria are met. Now the JV agreement kind of gives Bareric the right to roll for mile in and new must either pay or dilute it its JV ownership if that happens. Ah I love I love the project. This is a barrack needed a win. This is a this is this is this actually I think this is a huge deal. This is a special project. This is like this is as tier one as it gets. Um and it's all barracks and I think it kind of like there's been a lot of talk lately about Barrack and activist play. There might even be Elliot building a secret position in Barrack right now. That's a rumor going around. Um and what and there's a breakup play. We've talked about the breakup play before, but part of that breakup play is Nevada Gold Mines's separate separate entity. And that kind of with with four mile ex Nevada gold mines JV it really sort of sets the scene for an eventual tie up with Neimont as well. >> Sounds like an A this is an project an this is an A++++ project >> or so gets to say look what I have A+. >> Why is he but why is he talking about Rico Dick when you know what I mean? Like why' you why' you take gold out of your name when like you got this in your back pocket? Like what are you do? What are you >> What are you doing? >> This guy wanted a Freeport in 2020 and he couldn't get it done. >> But can you imagine Can you imagine what it must be like to run that company knowing this was sitting in your back pocket and and you realize, oh, this is why I didn't pay the over on Great Bear. This is why I haven't bought anything even though everyone's begging me to do something. This is why I wouldn't pay 30 when Freeport was 15. And I wanted to do a merger and do something friendly but no premium and this is just sitting there >> crazy. >> Like it's it's one of the snarky jokes I was thinking in my head looking at this when it's like oh new mom's gonna have to write a four or five billion dollar check to Bristo. It's like they should probably just call and be like, "You want a London gold steak?" >> Like, "Look, just give us just we'll make this easy." >> They weren't shy on the wording as well, right? Some of the snippets there. One of the century's greatest discoveries and potential to reset the industry cost curve. >> It's it's like it's not an exaggeration either. Like that's This is a phenomenal discovery. My god. like >> very keen to see all the numbers come out that that sort of taser is is sort of wetting the appetite. I think >> the joys of doing it as a PA though and with an exploration so you could use the inferred so you could really make it look good. Remember guys as we all know unless there's some major exploration or flirt sheet innovation no project ever looks as good as it does on the pea >> work down from here. All right guys let's sort of fly through sweet deal s deal. I think we've got four odd ones to run through here. Trav, you kick us off. Sweet or sour? Paladin raising $300 million. >> Uh B. Give it a B. Uh sorry, I'll give it a I'll give it a sweet I'll give it a sweet sweet deal. Um I'm encouraged by the new CEO's more conservative approach to the balance sheet. I also think they're raising an evaluation north of my like, you know, intrinsic value of of of Paladin. So, you know, like if you're raising money above, sweet deal. um use of funds. You look at them $100 million penned for working capital. So my rule of my rule of thumb whenever you you see a use of funds list and and it's always the last line is like working capital multiply that by at least two and that's the real number. Now that's that's just how I think. Um so I think $200 million for working capital. So at the end of the day though, this is still a ramp up raise and it's only because they've got pls can they frame it as a as a growth raise, right? But it's like they're still in ramp up. I I think this is a ramp up raise, but there's a new CEO, so I actually just, you know, commend someone for having a more conservative approach on the balance sheet. Like why there was ever why there's debt in that capital structure like beyond my like I just don't I do not understand. Um yeah, so but sweet deal. >> There's a million reasons to raise money, but there's only one typically that actually gets you to actually decide to pull the trigger on the deal. Um, >> they pl is the excuse, >> even if it's probably not the reason they pulled the trigger. >> And um, >> what else are we going to what else? What else are you going to invest if you're an ASX investor? It's >> what? It's a boss. It's nextG. We don't need to go down that rabbit hole. But, you know, the project's incredible. Yeah. They like makes sense. You you kill people for playing the game when in the card they have the cards. >> Yeah, sweet deal. I think you guys have captured it well. Wipe the slate clean with the new CEO coming in. Next one up, we've got Alamos Gold, the sale of their Turkish assets. So, this one might be a bit unfamiliar to to Aussies. I'll give a very brief recap. Alamos is a an 18 billion in Canadian dollars TSX Goldie. So, they've had a a great last sort of month that's seen them kick up. This sale is a US $470 million sale to a Turkish conglomerate of three development assets that they've got. Now, long backstory here. They've been in Turkey for the better part of a decade and a half. They started construction on one of those three development projects in 20 uh in the late 2010s. 2019 they hit a real snag with the government not renewing what seemed a pretty stock standard mindless renewal that kicked off as you'd suspect a lot of legal back and forth. So all that's to kind of say that analysts out there valued their Turkish assets at next to nothing because there was legal uh lawsuits in in the Hagen and other parts going on, you know, with Alamos suing the Turkish government for a lot of money. So the fact that they have got a deal, this $470 million is not overly, you know, contingent on a bunch of different things. It's just time based. So they get around about a third today, a third in a year, and a third in two years time. And that is backed up with international bank guarantees. So that's a pretty decent outcome in an environment that I think you could quite easily label a sellers environment for for goldies out there. To get 470 million US in in your pocket when most people had that written down to nothing is is quite sweet in my eyes. Koala, you might know this one a bit more than than us down here. >> A plus both sides. Sometimes you got to know when you're not the right you're not the right owner of an asset and on the and >> for the local operators and a lot of on the other side maybe they can create a lot of value. I think this can be looked back on and look if if the Turks crush it um I don't think anyone's going to look at Alamos and be like oh you left so much money on the table. It's you got to know when it's not your party to be at. >> Well said. Well said. Next one up, New Pneumont's sale of their coffee project to Fuet Metals. Quite quite a junior Fuete. So, >> New Pneumont wrapping up the the non-core sell. Obviously, they flagged last year a bunch of assets that were on the on the chopping block and they've kind of methodically just gone and and offloaded all of them. So the price tag US $150 million 10 in cash up frontont 40 in equity in the junior plus a 3% NSR so a royalty that >> can be repurchased for $100 million. So love that royalty part of I love the ability for the royalty to be bought back entirely as you know not not a partial buyback but a full complete buyback 100 million bucks like I love that part of the royalty. >> Super cool right? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Sweet, sweet deal on my eyes. This is a project that's not really moving the dial for for New Pneumont. They're getting paid a fair bit of stock. So, they are a 27% owner in Fuet now. And they uh got a bit of a kick up because Fuet just rocketed on this this deal. So, they say a bit more upside, you know, in the scheme of how big Newmont is, it's it's pretty small beer, but get it off off their books. And for Fuete, I think it's also a sweet deal. Obviously, the market loved it. up 70% since last Friday. They've got Pierre Lasan's support kind of like a lot of those those juniors that get a bit of backing and they are now targeting a feasibility study here for the back half of next year. So all of a sudden they're a company with a with a project that could go places in this environment. >> Ah sweet sweet deal. Yeah, very clever structuring. >> Who are we scoring >> for? I'm I'm scoring. I just like when a small company can can do a big deal without actually having to like fund very much upfront. I just think it's really cool. >> 100% sour. Follow your thoughts. >> Sour. >> I think we actually have to have a reflection here given the keenness and the gold market and the precious metals whether it's uh this hemllo lbo out of bareric. We go look at all the wheaten and all the price contingent. Uh, and this isn't uh this isn't price contingent uh with a pile of net cash the way White Haven did with BHP. This is brand new companies raising fresh capital and then layering on a very complicated capital structure between streams, price contingent. Um, and I also just like to say there's no such there's no such thing as a 100x or a 20x on the spreadsheet at any point in time. You can talk me into a 3x, a 5x. Um, and then something has to happen either the whole commodity paradigm has to change or when the company or the asset has to change to actually give you the next 5x on the 5x. Um, and it seems like we're doing a lot of deals right now where we're basically betting on the gold price is going to go a lot higher in real terms. It's not going to go down. If it goes down, whatever. We we bought a call option. And these are assets that some of these assets, coffee particularly, what did it last sell for? 500 million bucks is what Gold Corp paid for it. I'm going to assume a gold price that's less than half of what it was today. Newman is not stupid. Like if you want to play for 4,500 gold and another,000 bucks an ounce in the next 12 to 24 months, 4day will make you a lot of money. But let's not pretend we're not talking about buying call options 20 30% spot price out of the money. probably >> like I'm not I'm not super close to these but just like >> new months letting this go out the door >> at that price. So, so the the Hemllo thing I put in a different category be like on the cap I think I don't think the cap structure of um fuete is is particularly ownorous purely because the like 100 million of the headline number is a 3% NSR which can be bought back 100% of you know and you're only going to do that if like the economics kind of justified. >> So why is Newmont why is Newmont throwing this out the door? Why why at these gold prices is Newmont throwing something out the door which is basically free optionality like that's the >> I think this is just all part of like I think this is just consistent messaging since the moment you know new acquired new crest and there was and Tom Palmer comes out and well in that announcement says we're going to devest noncore assets and then they provide a list of all of the noncore assets they're going to devest and I think they're just they're just like following through with what they said they were going to do. gold price has moved a lot since then. I don't like to your point like I do think there's it is kind of questionable when majors like offload their optionality and yes there are certain assets that fit to be in major portfolios but there are other majors who take a view of like never devesting their optionality. They just like order and Agos like for a large part fits that category. They're not known to sell stuff. I guess selling things that don't move the needle anymore. But yeah, it's just what was the holding cost on coffee? It's a project. It's not a my there's not tailing dam tailings dams. There's it's one thing to say this my will never be more than 2% of my ebit doss. So I don't want the liability that comes with it being one of our operations because it doesn't move the needle that I think we all understand. But how long has Galore Creek sat in the tech portfolio or Shaft Creek? It's just you you you land bank projects and at 3600 gold when you've already well exceeded your devestature objectives. Why? >> Yeah. Well, well, here's another way to frame it. What's New Pumant's um Yeah. What's what's New stake in London Gold worth? Right. and like had the like like I do think new maybe understands that there like assets in other like you know companies portfolios where that's the sole thing and they retain and they they hold shares like maybe they'll actually realize a far better return in the process as well. Uh that was new crest steel not new months but yeah >> true >> I I do find the nature of sort of giving a list of assets to the market that we're going to kind of sell an interesting kind of dynamic. I I I kind of understand why they did it. They sort of non-core assets that aren't massively moving the dial. The market understands where they're going and and can sort of factor that all in. It is a kind of interesting strategy to to kind of reveal your cards to to the person on the other side of the table. >> I got one before we do the I got one for you guys. Think of resources recapitalization. >> Uh yeah, look it looks it look I I'm just not not at all familiar with the asset or anything, but um yeah, I think it's cool to see. I um yeah, wish her and and Brandon the best of luck with it. Those guys know the zinc market. >> I suspect you've got some thoughts on this one. >> I reckon you're ding ding ding on this one, mate. >> You have no idea. >> Look, 20 million tons of high-grade, call it 10 plus zinc equivalent, uh probably sitting there at uh I'm gonna butcher the name. Um, Sylvia is going to get drilled. Um, I think it's just really refreshing for two incredible people, both as people and characters, but also as talents in the business, to look at something so thoughtfully and realize based on their recent professional experience that from a 22 million Canadian pre- money uh basis, you could reframe this and not chase the big punish, the big score the way maybe prior strategics tried to push the management team and instead say okay from where we are today what is the economic maximizing path they're clearly a high-grade core but this is something that some really smart people have looked at in the past uh it kind of got left by the wayside and I think this opportunity to give this project a Lazarus moment and and reinject some life and get it swimming again with some really thoughtful people who know how to drive deal tension. They know how to drive development. Um, and I know these guys won't sleep until they've done everything in their power to drive a great outcome. First chapter of many. >> First chapter of many. Awesome, mate. Thank you for for jumping on the show and yeah letting us pick your brain and and chatting through everything happening in the mining world. >> Of course boys hopefully I get to your side of the world sooner rather than >> sure. >> Always great to chat with the koala as always mate and >> always be it heated discussion. >> We only disagreed on one thing today. I was disappointed about that. very very disappointing on that front but as always mate we love picking apart what's going on in the mining world and there was no shortage of that today a massive thank you to our partners that make it happen Sanvic ground support I mark the conference coming up on October 21 to October 23 in Sydney and last but not least focus the platform by market >> uru now remember I'm an idiot JD is an idiot if you thought any of this was anything other than entertainment you're an idiot and you need to read out a disclaimer
Majors Panic Amid Market Madness (Koala)
Summary
Transcript
Apparently, we're going to build a lot of nuclear reactors. You know how the IEA instead of talking about how to balance energy markets went to this whole how are we going to net zero and now that just full woke up and gone, okay, we kind of got ahead of ourselves. This is an industry where everyone wants to be third. They want to build the third reactor. They don't want to build the first or the second. And I just think this is the the issue with uh nuclear right now is >> another week, more mining news, more things that we did not expect would happen this week. And we're joined by a marupial who who is he's not Australian. I'm I'm I'm constantly confused by by your um your wannabe identity, Mr. Koala. Thank you so much for joining us for our weekly rap. >> I've been on the road for three weeks. Has anything interesting happened? That's why that's why we we dialed you in to find out what you found out that has been interesting on the road. So, we're going to talk about all the you know the Beaver Beaver Creek you've been to very recently. Um I know I know you're obsessed with the majors and especially when the majors do a dance together and we finally seen a big dance between Anglo and Tech. We're going to get your thoughts on that. The market is frothy. So, we're going to go through all of that. And with grade control JD we've got we've got a wild list of things going on like >> totally home with you know we've got a got to talk about barracks for four milear that's just an amazing deposit and sweet deal sail will deliver again >> plenty to run through kala why don't you kick us off mate as trav said you have been to be creek amongst a couple other conferences in the uh the recent past so what's the what's the temperature of the market what's the the chatter around the the conference halls telling you at the moment Look, Beaver Creek is a town, a village that I joked to a few people. I feel like I'm in Epcot, Switzerland. But there's a sister uh village called Bachelor Gulch where a few of us were staying. And basically across all of these villages, there is um a free shuttle that you can summon on an app on your phone. I stress this into the way to say that you are these locations even though we're off season are places that for an industry that destroys value as much as it creates value, we really have no business holding conferences there. And given it is the Beaver Creek Precious Metal Summit and what I just said about these real estate locations, you can imagine the cost. I paid $7 for a club soda at 300 p.m. in the Park High at lobby bar in Beaver Creek. Um, so maybe gold the gold price is tell us telling us something about inflation, but more importantly, uh, the best way I can sum up sentiment is I heard no one complaining about the cost of attending the conference at the Beaver Creek Precious Metal Summit. Not a one. How about the the sort of sense of euphoria though? Because I was actually just chatting with someone from from sort of states side before and their sort of commentary was that it wasn't as frothy. You know, no one's no one's complaining about the gold price. Everyone's chuffed and the producers are making money, but that sense of euphoria. What was that sort of like there? Uh I think everyone's say that they've seen bigger parties, but you have to remember with every cycle there's evolutions of uh the sector investors. You have new people, but you have the memories of the last cycle. I don't know. I I just, you know, you guys know I came into the business uh on the back of the China super cycle. So, I'm kind of used to having a realistic uh real politic view of through cycle economics. And you could just kind of see one of the metaphors I'm using is out of 20 projects, one will make a pile of money, one will return your capital but not your time, and 18 belongs somewhere in Dante's Inferno. and you just kind of felt that everyone felt the majority of projects were going to be lovely. It's it's a weird feeling if you've been through a cycle in our business before and but it's a very precious metal specific thing and who knows maybe this is a mega reate. Maybe Tether is going to buy a year's worth of production with all of their profits. I I don't know. But you can recognize when you're like, "Okay, this is a little strange." The there were there are two specific um yeah things I wanted to tease out of you from from Beaver Creek. One is I think you and I share a a common view on the attractiveness of IM Gold from a an acquisition perspective. you know, particularly Cotay and um obviously, you know, the the West African assets need need to be dealt with, but but um running into Beaver Creek that you know, IM Gold had a tremendous run. Did you get any sort of sense that there's going to be an outcome for IM Gold in the near future? >> Well, I think the base case was always that it was probably happening in 12 months at the next uh Denver Gold Forum or some point in the next 12 months. Maybe someone wants to get proactive and come in earlier, but it seems like it's very clear that the uh the senior gold producer of Canada is ready to come over the top on anyone who wants to step foot in their neighborhood. Uh the question is when >> 100%. >> Yeah. Look, and I look I kind of was seeing the way the stock was trading >> throughout August post 2Q results and frankly through September there's no October Cotay site visit. He kind of looks around like oh god is someone actually going to take a run at these guys and find a way to try to make it so can't do the deal and it didn't happen. Look, the exploration results were incredible, but uh that came out on their neg and monster project, but let's just call a spade a spade here. It seems to me like Jackson Hole where Powell signaled that he was going to cut rates supercharged this rally straight into Denver gold. And you saw it in the what's the joke? The first reaction to the Feds, the wrong reaction. First we popped, then we dropped. And I was like, okay, well, now what? The EBID do per ounce of some of these majors has been remarkably consistent throughout the years. And now we look at it and you take ASIC, you take spot gold, and you go, all right, we've 2x the margin of these companies. And the reality is, if gold's going to stay at the spot price, that's telling you something about inflation. that's telling you about where costs are going to go. I mean, if you're going to run SPA, you should really run 3,000 an ounce, not 3600 if you're trying to do a NAV analysis. >> Yeah, I I do I do think everyone kind of under underappreciates the effect of inflation to what margin of these like gold miners might be over time. But having said that, everyone's running not running a spot case and no one's no one's doing deals based off a spot case. like the corporates have a have a fear of paying too much still and and they're all everyone's being conservative with a price deck but I think you've got to be more aggressive on your price deck but also much more aggressive on your inflation expectations for costs in you know in a sense too which not nullifies the some of the price upside would just I would just close off that point Travis though that everyone felt you really felt that if you weren't in the party you were missing out there there was a FOMO dynamic that was extremely unique and very rare And yeah, >> FOMO drives deals, mate. Um, the other thing I wanted to ask you about was I did notice you tweet when asked about your best ideas from Beaver Creek, you cited >> uh Mchuan and also Saturn medals. I was surprised to see Saturn there, but please please elaborate on both. Um, on the first one, I think that sometimes the most beautiful music and the most powerful speech is what's left unsaid. And on Saturn, what I would say is it's a very fascinating puzzle because it's a lower grade open pitable and apparently heap leachable surf uh operation in WA. Um, and it's three golden quarts but with no sulfides. So, you grind into a pulp, you'll leech it. And you sit there and you go, "Okay, it's trading at one of those P discounts where you go. Someone's as smart as me or even half as smart as me would have picked up on this at this point." And the only excuse I'm able to get so far and I'm trying to pull up all the metallurgical and flushy work I can on it is, oh yeah, there's not a lot of heat bleaches in WA. Uh, this is just isn't how WA gold fields work. Uh, so still doing the work, kicking the tires. Um, and we'll see. We'll see. But it just it jumped off the page as I went into the meeting very explicitly just going your valuation implies there's a critical problem here. And I came out of it going, I got to find the flaw in the flowheet. And if there's no flaw in the flow sheet, you Aussies are just getting lazy. And given how much you Aussies were willing to come all the way to Quebec for a great lithium discovery in the next green bushes less than 5 years ago, I don't know you guys to be lazy when it comes to uh traveling abroad. >> And it's right in your backyard. >> We're scared of we're scared of bleaches. That's for for sure. even though we've got a tremendous history of of heap leach operations um and and yeah and this this gold price you can you can get away with a lot more and so I I do think if like all else stays constant Saturn will get financed. Um >> no just you look at the call it the elevated gold price they use in their deck for an updated NAV and it's it's a joke of a it's a massive discount. It's a massive discount compared to uh the actual spot gold price. So even if when you do the haircuts, you go, "Okay, this thing's just this thing's trading like Northern Dynasty." And you're like, "Is it Northern Dynasty?" No, just saying like it's trading one of those discounts where you're like, "There's got to be something wrong with it." And so far, I haven't found the flaw. And I spent the whole meeting on that. Like where do you find in a gold euphoria in a first world jurisdiction two and a half million ounces where there's a clear line of sight to three million ounces of heat leachable gold. And by the way, last I checked WA is a goddamn desert. So I can't think of a better place to do a heat bleach because I've seen them in Nevada and I've seen them in Arizona. A desert's a desert. >> The other thing with heat bleaches, mate, is um disappointing. They're not going to need Sanvic ground support. >> They must be one of the few gold miners in the state in the country that wouldn't need Sanvic ground support because we know Sanvic ground supports the entire gold industry in Australia right now. >> Underground ones. Yeah. >> Underground mines. Yeah. And mate, we are getting to go out to the magnificent QA site where they >> imminent. Imminent >> imminent hundreds of employees working day and night to keep the West Australian gold industry fighting. And we know they've got these manufacturing hubs all around the world. So there's people in every kind of pocket of the earth fighting to keep everyone going. Gold mine, bit a base metal mine. >> We got an email from a base metal miner in North America recently saying, "I love that Sanvic sponsors you because we use Sanvic ground support in our base metals mine." So it's a global phenomenon, mate. >> It is. And why not get on board and use the best ground support in the industry. Get in touch with Sanvic ground support and put an order in today. Whether you want to do it on the app or just give a Derek Herd a call. details in the show notes, mate. >> Alts, mesh, and all of the rest, mate. Sandy ground sport. >> Go, Sandy. How was the temperature in Uranium Land when you uh when you mentioned over there uh a couple weeks ago? Obviously, the the big sort of shindig they've got every year. >> Uh apparently, we're going to build a lot of nuclear reactors. I haven't seen an FID on any of them, but it's funny like just freestyling with you guys here. You know how the IEA was talking about instead of talking about how to balance energy markets went to this whole how are we going to net zero the energy market from an emissions perspective and now that just woke up and gone okay we kind of got ahead of ourselves um I just see this whole oh we're going to have this huge call on nuclear demand growth And no one's actually taken a step back it seems like and gone okay where's Vogle 5678 in Georgia who is actually and I think actually uh I think it was Kamico CFO Grant Isaac uh I heard this second third hand basically said this is an industry where everyone wants to be third they want to build the third reactor they don't want to build the first or the second and I just think this is the issue with uh nuclear right now is we know China's got the teams building and everything, but where is the Western will to redevelop the skill and build these reactors and then give the capital the return it needs to justify it. So, it's it's fun. We'll uh we'll see. But SP raising raising piles of money and uh >> the financial reactors humming and uh yeah it's >> don't really have any involvement in that sector right now. In hindsight I should just have bought atom prom in size and never said a goddamn word about uranium ever again. >> Yeah it's it's fascinating. I mean to to the point of building the the third reactor, we've we've seen the the first if you like reactors built in in Vogle and in in the UK as well and the uh the bill that came back was a bit bigger than most people were expecting. So maybe we're a bit traumatized on that front. >> Oh, I'm sorry. Uh I mean, will you actually get it back and all the cash flow? I mean, what when are we going to get a full payback on QB2? It's not like we know. Actually, those of us who have been around a cycle realize that there's not a lot of people I know actually to build these things right and tight and on time. >> We'll have to keep waiting for those unit SMRs to be firing out the back of the factory. >> But but there are stories that we all want to believe and we want to believe the dream. And you're not going to convince everyone, but like everyone's convinced we're going to build all these reactors. Um, totally there for it, but don't we need to see an FID or two? >> I think uranium is like one of the more enticing kind of parts of the market right now o only because like everyone's attention is imprecious and um yeah, uranium is like relatively quiet even though it's you know just full of full of you know very retail kind of sentiment crowd but they're relatively quiet right now. So I'm like kind of just just based on that somewhat drawn to to opportunities there. >> I wonder I wonder if that's the mining kind of perspective though as well, right? Because if you come at it from the tech slant and the people talking about data centers and these types of things, they still talk a fair bit about getting the reactors to power the data centers for the AI kind of roll that. It's just us in in the mining world are a bit more preoccupied with with precious metals at the minute. Who knows? It's hard to measure these things. >> Well, it's it's also a snap back to reality. If you've created an app that has a marginal cost of zero because just replicated in an app store, call me up when Zuckerberg is actually financing a nuclear reactor. Like, we're just talking about a different game here. It's different ROIC's. It's a different spreadsheet. It's a different level of complexity. This isn't code. This is Adams. This is regulations. This is physical things. It's not just the dopamine in our heads anymore. This is totally true. But I would say the the kind of circa 500 billion in capex that the big tech group together is is spending. You know, had you said that five years ago, that would have been pretty jaw-dropping for for most people to try and take on board that these guys would collectively spend that much in in capex. That's a a complete kind of dynamic change, don't you think? >> Let's see what the return is on it. They're chasing a thematic. >> Facebook, >> I'm not arguing that it'll be a good return. >> Meta Meta used to be called Facebook. >> Now Meta is going to be an AI uh what are the what are we calling these? Super cyclingers, super adopters, supercaler. Hyperscalers. They're hyperscalers. >> Hyperscalers. >> I mean, at the end of the day, the funny thing the funny thing is, just given where I'm going tomorrow for a site visit, why couldn't we do solar with a lithium ion battery and probably undercut nuclear? That's both a lithium and a cesium plug. [Laughter] We we could unpack a whole another debate there, but to to to move us on to the the track and that the topics we wanted to unpack. The frothiness in the market is something that Tra and I have both noticed kind of astoundingly in small sort of pockets of of the market here. It's been pretty astounding. >> There's like some big pockets of the market. Well, it's very it's very fragmented, but in the >> if you're an exploration neurology play with something in the US and if you got a like if if you're just near a rare earth thing like oh my god >> you're near the White House and and the an OTC US listing like >> did we ever actually see that interview where Senator Bergam uh actually said that Coliseum was a mission critical asset? My first site visit was mountain. It is >> It is truly the greatest thing in the world to watch right now. Like >> I'm sorrying I'm breaking. It's just it's so I'm not going to >> We've got to play >> promise myself. I'm not going to >> We've got to play the Lockxley video. >> So you've got you've got Yeah. Obviously like Dine a billion dollar market cap. now lostly is like 3,000% return on on neurology to to datine and MP and did you see did you catch the music video I'll snip it in now play >> you sent I I don't know Lockxley so educate me guys I'm prepared on the others but educate me >> I don't I don't have much to add here other than this it's like I could talk about the project but we're not going to be talking about much we're just like this is it's just like meme stock this is memetock stuff this is you retail mania. >> Every announcement is a map and on one side you've got dine, you know, tenement on one side and then the other side you've got mountain pass. That is all you need to know about it. And there's no better time to play the the latest music video from this company [Music] next door. Lockxley and Mojave bringing you more. America needs supply. Yo, the time is now. Mind the market. LK Y show you how. Mojave corridor rapping with the beat right next to MP. America needs to fly. Don't front, don't wait. Lockley's got the key. Trying to feed the whole state. We got what's underneath. Got antimony and we be carrying the heat. We got what's best for the future and stacked with re. We always playing it clean. Rice on the tech. New process, brand new. Something that has never been done or seen. Yo, government, where you at? Time to step in line. You want sovereignty? Well, this is the sign to step aside while we work hard under this heat. We keep it on shore. Lock got the medals and we bringing you more. >> Hilarious. Uh yeah, >> it's a bull market. >> This is this is big bull market behavior. I almost like I'm just tempted to to to to sell like yeah, most my portfolio and just like leave whatever I've got left in just the dumbest stuff possible because this it's like you don't get rewarded for being smart in this market. We never actually spoke too much about it, but like just for a second on the MP materials deal, Koala, like how did you sort of think about the the structure and you know you you sort of base yourself in a different part of the world to to ask what is the what was the the feeling around that deal? >> Uh the US has decided to play by China's rules. I think it's a good industrial policy. If I could change anything as I understand the deal, the one thing I would change is I would not have made it a financial backs stop where if MP sells their NDPR products for 90, they get a check for 20 to true it up to 110. I would have done it as a minimum physical offtake where if you can't sell it for that number, you can sell it to us the US government. and I would have created a stockpile. Um I think it has totally revolutionized how we think about strategic minerals. I think unfortunately also it has inspired greed where prudence should always still have a seat at the table in multiple of these uh situations. Uh but it's a good deal. I think there will be more of them. >> I think you're right. I think you're right. Should we Should we unpack the the Anglo deal now? I'm curious to >> Sorry. More of them in uh in datine. Surely you jo Are we going to Are we going to touch on the other speculative froths or not? >> Oh, you want to talk about the um the Scandium one? Well, this is this is interest. I'm like my god. Like we all know how small the Scandia market is, but um but you put Freedelland behind something and there's just a rocket ship and then Freedelland's rocket ship back solves the value because then you get the US government involved as well. Like >> it it marries up plenty of parts of the conversation we're going to have today. Right. >> In so many ways, Jonas, in so many ways. Look. >> Yeah. >> Here's the conundrum. the lead times to get scandium into and it is an absolutely miracle metal. You adopt it in alloys, you put it in Bloom Energy, uh, Bloom Boxes and you can see what the BE is ticker in the US. You can see how that stock's doing. They need scandium oxide in their boxes and they're probably the biggest consumer of scandium right now in the Western world. I look at all of this and there's a clear case for a western like scandium boom. The problem is the chicken and egg. It always has been that you need the security of supply at a price, but no one wants to do the R&D and the certification at Airbus or Boeing to then incorporate it if they don't know they can actually get the material. Um, with that said, Sunrise, it it has some very nice high grades. There's a 600 g per ton cut off. There's a 300 g per ton cut off. Without getting into the like, look, Burough next door, Ningan, right up the road. 155 gram per ton cutoff. 300 gram per ton at Sunrise is about a 470 from memory. Grand per ton reserve about 1.7 million tons. Ningan's 410 at 1.4. Look, if we're actually going to have Scandium, those assets in the what I'll call the Biffield, do Ningan belt and provide the next century of Scandium for the Western world. But it realistically it's going to require government support so that the consumers understand that the supply will be there and are therefore willing to pay the price that will incentivize the private capital to go to um build those assets. But having walked around a few uh cattle paddics uh two hours drive outside of do, these things are going to be really easy to build once uh the policy is there. Simple as that. I I feel like there's this disconnect between like, you know, what what what what equity investors should expect versus like the like you there's all this like euphoria at the moment because governments suddenly kind of may maybe potentially underpinning the economics for equity holders, but I just don't like I don't have the same level of confidence that it works out that way for equity holders. Like you sure you just you bring on new supply into a small market. Look, Nio, look, Niop with Elk Creek has raised over hund00 million of fresh capital in the last four months. >> Um, SRL, Sunrise is roofed, for lack of a better term. It's if you can create pizzazz, you can create stories. At the end of the day, the way our industry, and this is something I've been workshopping and I'll share with you guys, is because tech every cycle creates incredible amounts of value and wealth, people stay in the sector. So with every passing cycle in technology, the average IQ, the median IQ actually gets higher. In our industry, with every cycle, there's about a base of specialists. And at the peak of the cycle, five to 10x of the specialists are generalists in their first cycle. And they then get washed out. a few stay around as specialists, but the reality is if you think about the what I'll call the historical IQ and trauma of the investors in our psych in our sector. At the bottom of the cycle, it's just guys like you and me. At the top, our capital is dwarfed by people who think they know so much more than us, but have not seen a cycle before. and they'll if they get burnt they'll never come back again. So it's really like almost looking at shell decline curves. Um so you have this small base of investors and on top of it people with so much more capital when our sector gets going but they don't want to listen or I'd say there's a hubris. There's a natural hubris. >> It's it's something fascinating to to think about. I I can't help but think about how interest rates and and the like over the last 15 plus years have have distorted those those cycles with just you know a zero interest rate policy for for n on a decade and stuff has pushed the the kind of classical cycle completely out of whack to the advantage of of of tech and and the like. >> Speaking of tech, shall we? >> Let's jump in. What's your what's your first pass thoughts? >> Why not just do the joint venture? How screwed is QB2 that they feel compelled to do this deal? And what compelled Anglo to do this deal? Why couldn't Duncan, Jonathan, and Gary just got in the room and agreed on a QB2 colossi joint venture? minus the fact of course that we don't yet know how much capital and what is need to be done for QB2 to be finished for lack of a better word or rescoped. I mean if I was if I was Gary and from from my voice you can tell I'm not. Uh my big question when it comes time for the joint venture conversation is going to be well has QB2 performed has it hit a budget or hit a operating plan at all because I'm 44 of Kolasi Mitsui's 12 Mitsui Natsumitomo the tax partner at QB2 so how do we know what the NAV split should be on this joint venture until we see how QB2 performs it it's missed multiple uh budgets. Um and that's why I kind of keep coming back to this thought that it feels like this is a merger of panic on both sides because Anglo I speculating completely but probably felt like they had to do something or it was eer and tech. I mean, Danny Mulchuk was added as a special adviser a week before this deal, and it sounds like QB2 actually third quarter 2025 results for tech are going to be mustwatch, must must listen conference call because tell us again what the new number is to get QB2 to spec. And I empathize with Jonathan. Uh this was not his project. uh he got brought as CFO and uh Ara Don Lindsay. Uh Don Lindseay is the one agreeing with this project. And I think his one mistake in all of this is that he didn't stand up to the board uh when Glen Core came knocking. He should have said let's just do the deal. Uh but I also then have to say you look at where tech stands today and because of the coal price where Glen Core is that looks like a smart move. Um, but at the end of the day, this is I mean the Bloomberg article about how this all came together a day after it got announced openly said Keville made it clear that he would not approve any deal that didn't involve tech being headquartered in Canada which for a company that has okay trail which is their smelter in Canada for zinc plus red dog which is going to hit a wall in about 5 years because they haven't gotten a deal to do the expansions and the brownfield. The zinc business of tech is maybe worth a billion2 billion reflecting the fact that trail a zinc smelter that's been around for decades in Canada no one's buying that in and of itself. So the only actual nav of value in Canada is Highland Valley, which isn't that great. So the audacity to have a company call itself a Canadian champion after they sold their Canadian crown jewels to Glen Core with who their chairman Emoretus crucified in the press. Like there's a lack of self-awareness about what this company is. And that's why I joked if I was the Chileans I would say >> I mean you could you could say the same about like >> you could say >> Angloia headquarters in London you know what I mean like there's um I I and like whether Keeble demanded that or not you the Canadian government was going to to have like more ownorous demands about um about the commitments to Canada. >> The reason but the reason the Canadian government has these demands is because of what Keville said with Glen Cortech in 2023. And yet they let Gle pie the crown jewels of tech. Tech is not and this is your headline for the tech is not a Canadian company. It's a Chilean company. It's a South American company. And you know we can also say this for the London Mining or Lendian Gold. They have offices in Vancouver. But if I'm the Chileans, I'd be looking around going hey uh QB2 Kalasi Los Bronzis with the Andina joint venture. Hey guys, Anglo, you have a big offset. Why isn't Santiago the headquarters of Anglo? If we're going to get nationalist, if we're going to get nationalist, let's talk. Let's really get into it. So, well, >> that that was that was one of the defining for for Rio Tinto. You could say that for so many companies. >> Yeah. Yes. And I I I agree with you. Like >> not for nothing. Not for nothing, guys. on Rio on Rio uh between the Brits and your country folk you without getting into all the nuances of Zuken Gorge you guys ran out of town a French CEO who created a ton of value at Rio by not buying copper and just buying back stock when everyone thought consensor was 50 60 bucks. Uh oh, it it all of this it's I'm just saying it's a it's a crazy little nuance of all of this. But look, I think if I had to say it's clear no one's coming for tech. I think tech shareholders have to decide if they want to do a deal now or they want to wait till 2029 when Keville has no say anymore. And I think if you're a tech shareholder, obviously you can vote by just selling your stock. But it's a function of you need to see what this QB2 update and plan looks like and how confident you are in it. If it looks really messy, you are going to go, "Yeah, let's do a deal." But if you're an Anglo shareholder, you're going to be very curious um how much QB2 is going to cost to get to plan. And you're also then going to I struggle to get to all the valuations. I know copper trades at a pure play, but if this deal all does come together, I think if a no chiller shows up, it'll show up on the Anglo side. >> I think the valuations of these both of these companies, I think if you're the BHP or the Rio boards, it's really hard to justify paying these numbers. Which is why if I had to come all together, I think this Gary will extract a pound of flesh for the joint venture to actually happen at Kalasi. If this deal does happen, I think this combined company is probably going to become a new antifagosta. By that I mean probably becomes a funding short um for a lot of folks because yeah we then have to take the risk of QB2 plus uh the joint venture integration because the reason the stocks went up on the deal is it's all about QB2 colassi which is why I keep going back to if we all were rational and we were all thoughtful here this should have been just the QB2 colassi joint venture the way Mark Bristo and Gary Goldberg did the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture several years ago. But if you take QB2 out of an operating asset of tech and you put it into a joint venture, you have an existential crisis in Vancouver about what is tech metals, which is to say there's e there's ego in history. >> Oh, for for sure. Also like on the on the tech side, you've got a big funding issue that you're coming across. Now, I'm I'm I'm sure I'm sure Anglo has been shared with enough information to form a view on what that funding gap does look like. Enough for them to have a degree of confidence to pay a $4.9 billion special dividend to shareholders pre-deal completion themselves. Um but but like so and I'm curious why you think that the an intelle side when the on the tech side you you have a you need a 66.6% 6% threshold on both the A and B class uh shares to to prevent a deal here. And presumably the funding gap on the tech side could be an an attractive angle for an for an interloper who has a lower cost of capital to to get involved. >> If I ran BHP, which I never will, and I was looking at this, I would say, okay, even if QB2 took5 billion more dollars, I can handle that. like to get to the promised land. But I look at Anglo's portfolio, Colasi, KCO, you have the Broncess and Dena with all those synergies. Um, you have Ministryo like you have all assets. You have multiple assets. I I legitimately want I would love to have 22% of Antamina, but it's not operating UB2. I can fund the fix, but at what social cost of Vancouver? Um, do I have to move everyone there? Like, oh, and then Red Dog How do you unlock the value there? How can you inherit that situation? It it's just it's a it's just a trickier situation and ideally eventually this QB2 colossi joint venture should happen and by the way in 3 years which as much as we look at our P&Ls every day we look at our annual returns three years is a split second in our industry. You fast forward three years, tech would be a sitting duck. So I don't have to deal with tech now. W with with all that kind of said, the the the share price of Anglo since the BHB deal hasn't hasn't sort of performed despite them sort of making steps towards carving up the business in like they sort of broke out >> but the multiples expanded massively. >> No, they've um yeah >> pre pre the pre-announcement BHP was 2150 in London, Anglo was like 22 22 and a half went to 25. If BHP went down to 20 because people are wondering if BHP is going to come over. You back out this special dividend. Angler goes back to sub22. That's 1.10. I mean, what was the proposal for at the time? It was 089 plus the spin co share. So, we could back out Kumba in there as well, but that's I'm sure BHP is going to have that conversation. And if I had my brothers, I think BHP should have a very serious conversation about do you buy Anglo and you say we're going to let Escandida gracefully gracefully go into middle age with two concentrators, not three, even if it takes it higher up the cost curve because ironically that would probably create the copper super cycle that would pay for the whole deal. Then you do the third concentrator in 10 years. But uh that's great spreadsheet math. I'm not sure if it's socially palatable. Alrighty. I reckon we um we we we move to our our grade control koalas. This might be your first time joining us for for for grade control, but I you know I trust you you understand the concept. We're uh just going to run through a couple of um a couple of yeah corporate things that we've seen throughout the the week and and give them a grade of A to F. Kick us off. >> All righty. Let's let's do it. So first story is the US international development finance court looking to establish a up to5 billion joint venture fund with Orion. So both parties here would be contributing an equal share over time like I said sort of scaling up and all these sort of buzzwords that we've seen for a long time now. Critical minerals focus aimed at reducing supply anxiety. You know China the elephant in the room there. also with sort of similar structure to a deal that Orion did with the Abu Dhabi sovereign fund not too long ago. I I found I'm not sure about you guys surprisingly little coverage of this given the context of what we've been talking about with sort of government influence lately, but a a fund of this sort of size would be the the largest type structure and and uh investment unit that we've seen in the mining space in in quite a while. So there the the wording around it sort of made you think of it as another kind of arm for the US government to do deals in the metal space and and large scale deals at that. So I I would be super curious to see the the deal structure kind of like you touched on before with with MP materials there. Koala if if we're just talking plain vanilla equity stakes, project stakes, these sorts of things, it it kind of leaves a bit to be desired in my eyes because you need to leave the incentives in the west sort of strong like we we don't want to end up in a place where it's completely kind of China-ish with stateowned entities and the like. I think that's the the real risk of of disruption. So, as for rating, I I'll chuck a B to this one for the ambition because obviously we're just we're just talking about something here and I think the eventual structure that it takes is is super vital. Koala, over to you. >> E minus uh we need this fund. Um, and I have a ton of respect for Oscar, Dominic, Estavan, and the team at Orion, but the US government is not going to put money into a fund like this to make 12 to 15% or on the great deal, a 20% IRRa. They're doing this to rebuild a supply chain and structure and structuring and credit expertise is not where you go find your GP skills for what you're trying to accomplish. You need more equity, operational, venture capital. I will say I would feel so much better if I saw that uh Freedelland the Ivano group or the Lendine group were going to be the peas on this because that would be a we're not trying to structure it get a royalty and off it would be like nope we're going to go find great new deposits we're going to build mines maybe G might be involved here to build stuff just to pick a name or frankly If you're to operate stuff better, it's like I mean Matt Copper is closing in a month. Go get McMullen. Get an operator who's provenly made money and say so that's the one concern I have that Orion has built an incredible business. uh protecting the downside and structuring but being a GP for the US government is not just about protecting the downside. Uh you can do that anyway just because of what your capital is. It's can you drive can you make the mine that is tier three tier 1.5 through great operational skill set. So that's where I'm rambling here, but it's a great idea. I would I' rate can it rate it an A if I knew that it wasn't Orion just as the GP and you're like, we have great operators coming alongside us. That's the nuance to this. >> I give it a a B. Um, I think like at least Orion's better equipped to make positive capital allocation decisions in the sector than bureaucrats. Um, but and I don't think this will be the last the last partnership of the sort that we see between private equity established private equity groups and and uh governments. I'm think we'll see quite a few. And by the way, if if Dominic or anyone hears this, >> all I'm saying is >> show us who your operators are going to be because you've built a franchise that can actually partner with the US government, but you do some things incredibly well, but if you tell the US government you can make a 5% IR, but you can build a critical mineral supply chain for the next 50 years or you can make 15% but not create that supply chain and we still have a China dependency. The US government at a certain for certain other agendas is not profit maximizing. They're geopolitically maximizing optionality. >> I totally agree that disconnect between the the the strategic interest and credit a credit return interest like you can't quite reconcile them yet. There's a lot to play out there, but um we'll move on to the next one. We found out news that QARQ sovereign wealth fund QIA is putting 500 million US dollars into Ivanho mines for a 4% stake um at $12 Canadian a share. And the funds are earmarked to support Ivanho's uh exploration and their, you know, endeavors to continue to grow into both Africa and um and parts of Asia with um yeah, there's there's a bit of like this. You didn't see this one coming. We didn't see this one coming. It's a big deal. It's a big deal. It's a big new shareholder. I I give this one a I give this one an A. Um yeah, I I mean we had we had Willow on a couple weeks ago and and he talked about this this theme of of a multipolar world. Um and h you know, having these kind of like sovereign sources of capital really coming into the sector. they've got much lower cost of capital and um and I I just I just see this this investment from QIA as as kind of like lighting a fire under the optionality that Freedelland has with Ivanho. >> This one's absolutely an A. I think there was a couple question marks out there about the the the discount, but like Fre Friedeland's just the the master of his register. There's 45ish% in in three hands, which he's obviously very close with. 4% dilution, not massive in the scheme of things with obviously the challenges they've had in in recent times as well as just sort of pulling capital out of parts of the world that historically haven't been massive financiers of of mining projects. How about you? >> This is an A. Everyone was way Cula 26 27 guide and now it doesn't really matter. Robert at the core besides being one of the most brilliant people in the industry is one of the best people people in the world. He is not going to do this deal with the Qataris and then embarrass them with the guidance. Now, when we look at the guide, when it comes, even if free cash flow isn't quite where we want it to be in 2026 and the inflections in 2027, he's injected incredible capital into the business. So, what it doesn't matter anymore. And there's so much optionality in the portfolio at Ivanho that whether it's the western four lands or the stuff in Kazakhstan which they did a news release on a couple weeks ago. Frankly, I think they could have been more bullish. That's just me. Ding ding ding. Um, but I would say that the one surprise here it's the Qataris, not the Saudis. But A+ A+ all around. Clean sweep of A's there. Next next story guys is BHB and this one sort of broadened out with Anglo's decision but they are shutting down Saraji in in the Bowen Basin Saraji South 750 jobs uh going from BHB as well as making the threat of shutting down their trading training academy. And then you sort of see within about five minutes Anglo come out and make a call that sort of roughly 200 jobs will unfortunately go as well as they grapple with royalties, low coal prices and and the like there in in Queensland. So yeah, a lot of politicking with with this one with with BHB. Obviously they're they're playing real hard ball. We sort of saw the comments from Mike Henry really highlighting how if you if you chop away the the couple good years of returns that you get in the mining industry every every decade then it's not worth gritting your teeth through the other six seven years of the of the kind of cycle. Um >> who are we scoring incredibly >> who are we scoring on this? Are we scoring B? We scoring the policy or like what who are we scoring here? I'm I'm going to score the politicians because >> take it any take it any which way you like. And >> yeah, not to not to be, you know, super political because I think it's across the board. I think it's it's bipartisan and it's it's a D because one party brings it in, the other party is, you know, happy in quotation marks to keep the policy. So, it's a D on that part and there just needs to be a lot of understanding in how commodity cycles work. And yeah, it just goes to show how hard cutting out costs of of government are once they're sort of bedded in. What are your thoughts? >> Got to pay for the Olympics somehow. The question is, uh, are you going to still be in power when they come to town? >> Look, what was Paul Flynn's line? It's like, it's crazy. We have $200 coal and, uh, no one's making money in Queensland. >> Yeah. people people 10 years ago would have crawled over broken glass for $200 met coal. Um I think what PHP is doing is being sensible. Um it doesn't look like from the work I've done in the last year or two, it doesn't look like it's that many tons. What I do think it kind of sets off now is a conversation that probably will take several years, probably two or three years. And you have the Brisbane Olympics and what is it 32? uh looming over it, which is at some point these royalties have to be changed and in all likelihood there's a lot more pain to come in Queensland before those royalty changes are made. So BHP gets an A in my book. Queensland gets an F. And I would say Gary when he's going there trying to solve the Mount Ice or smelter problem can look at them and say, "I haven't shut down a coal mine voluntarily. I've done it cuz my investors told me I had to get net zero." Well, it's just a real tragedy that uh Queensland has kind of put a self-flicted wound with a cash grab at the time. And look, it it is what it is. I I don't take pleasure in this, even though the royalties in Queensland have reset the cost curve in a way that has made profits for Canadian, US, and other coal coal producers. Incredibly compelling. >> Yeah, this is an >> capital was mobile. >> This is an easy f because there's a massive massive cognitive dissonance with politicians who don't understand that capital is mobile. that exact point. There's like you think you think you can you can just erode the entire economics of of of capital intensive assets and the capital continues to flow into them. It's not how it works. Um f to the politicians for for just like you know thinking that's how economics works. It doesn't. Um to your point on uh on on on there's a on there's a multi-year conversation about these royalties. I think that's been happening. like I I I do think I do think this is actually a very interesting moment um that's being exacerbated and there's like a lot of a lot of like light on these royalties right now and it's building and it's building but no one's really paying attention in our sector because everyone's just focused on gold but what happens to what happens to the some of the equities um if there's a meaningful change in those royalties in the next next 12 months like I I think the probability of that is not baked in but I do think there's a um a high a higher probability and then he's been backed into some of those processes. >> I think the probabil I think the probability that everyone's assigning to it after the last 24 hours is probably too high of a probability. >> Give it a week or so and see what happens. See if see where people kind of settle. Yeah, nothing's going to happen overnight. The government obviously sort of putting it at nothing changing before 2930 and and maybe we land somewhere in between. Last one on grade control guys. Barrack's former Trev, take us away. Oh, >> I I was completely oblivious to to this project and how special it is, but sometimes you just you just like read read details of a project and you're like that is that this one just makes me happy. But m so so Barry, they put up some um new numbers on four mile. Four mile was discovered in 2016 and yeah, we got some high level kind of PA details on the project. This is a freaking beast. Um I'll I'll give you some of the the highle numbers. this 25 year mine life producing between 650 and 750,000 ounces peranom at a at a at a at a unit all in sustaining cost of a midpoint of $700 per ounce. That is crazy. Barricone is 100% of four mile there obvious synergies here with the Nevada gold mines joint venture which you mentioned J um which you mentioned Koala was put in place by um by by Bristo back then when when the joint venture was entered into between Newmont and um and Barrack for the Nevada gold mines uh for mile was excluded but the JV agreement allowed for mile to be added later if certain agreed investment or commercial feasibility triggers are met. Barakus has uh said that it anticipates for mile to um to eventually be contributed to Nevada gold mines at fair market value if certain criteria are met. Now the JV agreement kind of gives Bareric the right to roll for mile in and new must either pay or dilute it its JV ownership if that happens. Ah I love I love the project. This is a barrack needed a win. This is a this is this is this actually I think this is a huge deal. This is a special project. This is like this is as tier one as it gets. Um and it's all barracks and I think it kind of like there's been a lot of talk lately about Barrack and activist play. There might even be Elliot building a secret position in Barrack right now. That's a rumor going around. Um and what and there's a breakup play. We've talked about the breakup play before, but part of that breakup play is Nevada Gold Mines's separate separate entity. And that kind of with with four mile ex Nevada gold mines JV it really sort of sets the scene for an eventual tie up with Neimont as well. >> Sounds like an A this is an project an this is an A++++ project >> or so gets to say look what I have A+. >> Why is he but why is he talking about Rico Dick when you know what I mean? Like why' you why' you take gold out of your name when like you got this in your back pocket? Like what are you do? What are you >> What are you doing? >> This guy wanted a Freeport in 2020 and he couldn't get it done. >> But can you imagine Can you imagine what it must be like to run that company knowing this was sitting in your back pocket and and you realize, oh, this is why I didn't pay the over on Great Bear. This is why I haven't bought anything even though everyone's begging me to do something. This is why I wouldn't pay 30 when Freeport was 15. And I wanted to do a merger and do something friendly but no premium and this is just sitting there >> crazy. >> Like it's it's one of the snarky jokes I was thinking in my head looking at this when it's like oh new mom's gonna have to write a four or five billion dollar check to Bristo. It's like they should probably just call and be like, "You want a London gold steak?" >> Like, "Look, just give us just we'll make this easy." >> They weren't shy on the wording as well, right? Some of the snippets there. One of the century's greatest discoveries and potential to reset the industry cost curve. >> It's it's like it's not an exaggeration either. Like that's This is a phenomenal discovery. My god. like >> very keen to see all the numbers come out that that sort of taser is is sort of wetting the appetite. I think >> the joys of doing it as a PA though and with an exploration so you could use the inferred so you could really make it look good. Remember guys as we all know unless there's some major exploration or flirt sheet innovation no project ever looks as good as it does on the pea >> work down from here. All right guys let's sort of fly through sweet deal s deal. I think we've got four odd ones to run through here. Trav, you kick us off. Sweet or sour? Paladin raising $300 million. >> Uh B. Give it a B. Uh sorry, I'll give it a I'll give it a sweet I'll give it a sweet sweet deal. Um I'm encouraged by the new CEO's more conservative approach to the balance sheet. I also think they're raising an evaluation north of my like, you know, intrinsic value of of of Paladin. So, you know, like if you're raising money above, sweet deal. um use of funds. You look at them $100 million penned for working capital. So my rule of my rule of thumb whenever you you see a use of funds list and and it's always the last line is like working capital multiply that by at least two and that's the real number. Now that's that's just how I think. Um so I think $200 million for working capital. So at the end of the day though, this is still a ramp up raise and it's only because they've got pls can they frame it as a as a growth raise, right? But it's like they're still in ramp up. I I think this is a ramp up raise, but there's a new CEO, so I actually just, you know, commend someone for having a more conservative approach on the balance sheet. Like why there was ever why there's debt in that capital structure like beyond my like I just don't I do not understand. Um yeah, so but sweet deal. >> There's a million reasons to raise money, but there's only one typically that actually gets you to actually decide to pull the trigger on the deal. Um, >> they pl is the excuse, >> even if it's probably not the reason they pulled the trigger. >> And um, >> what else are we going to what else? What else are you going to invest if you're an ASX investor? It's >> what? It's a boss. It's nextG. We don't need to go down that rabbit hole. But, you know, the project's incredible. Yeah. They like makes sense. You you kill people for playing the game when in the card they have the cards. >> Yeah, sweet deal. I think you guys have captured it well. Wipe the slate clean with the new CEO coming in. Next one up, we've got Alamos Gold, the sale of their Turkish assets. So, this one might be a bit unfamiliar to to Aussies. I'll give a very brief recap. Alamos is a an 18 billion in Canadian dollars TSX Goldie. So, they've had a a great last sort of month that's seen them kick up. This sale is a US $470 million sale to a Turkish conglomerate of three development assets that they've got. Now, long backstory here. They've been in Turkey for the better part of a decade and a half. They started construction on one of those three development projects in 20 uh in the late 2010s. 2019 they hit a real snag with the government not renewing what seemed a pretty stock standard mindless renewal that kicked off as you'd suspect a lot of legal back and forth. So all that's to kind of say that analysts out there valued their Turkish assets at next to nothing because there was legal uh lawsuits in in the Hagen and other parts going on, you know, with Alamos suing the Turkish government for a lot of money. So the fact that they have got a deal, this $470 million is not overly, you know, contingent on a bunch of different things. It's just time based. So they get around about a third today, a third in a year, and a third in two years time. And that is backed up with international bank guarantees. So that's a pretty decent outcome in an environment that I think you could quite easily label a sellers environment for for goldies out there. To get 470 million US in in your pocket when most people had that written down to nothing is is quite sweet in my eyes. Koala, you might know this one a bit more than than us down here. >> A plus both sides. Sometimes you got to know when you're not the right you're not the right owner of an asset and on the and >> for the local operators and a lot of on the other side maybe they can create a lot of value. I think this can be looked back on and look if if the Turks crush it um I don't think anyone's going to look at Alamos and be like oh you left so much money on the table. It's you got to know when it's not your party to be at. >> Well said. Well said. Next one up, New Pneumont's sale of their coffee project to Fuet Metals. Quite quite a junior Fuete. So, >> New Pneumont wrapping up the the non-core sell. Obviously, they flagged last year a bunch of assets that were on the on the chopping block and they've kind of methodically just gone and and offloaded all of them. So the price tag US $150 million 10 in cash up frontont 40 in equity in the junior plus a 3% NSR so a royalty that >> can be repurchased for $100 million. So love that royalty part of I love the ability for the royalty to be bought back entirely as you know not not a partial buyback but a full complete buyback 100 million bucks like I love that part of the royalty. >> Super cool right? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Sweet, sweet deal on my eyes. This is a project that's not really moving the dial for for New Pneumont. They're getting paid a fair bit of stock. So, they are a 27% owner in Fuet now. And they uh got a bit of a kick up because Fuet just rocketed on this this deal. So, they say a bit more upside, you know, in the scheme of how big Newmont is, it's it's pretty small beer, but get it off off their books. And for Fuete, I think it's also a sweet deal. Obviously, the market loved it. up 70% since last Friday. They've got Pierre Lasan's support kind of like a lot of those those juniors that get a bit of backing and they are now targeting a feasibility study here for the back half of next year. So all of a sudden they're a company with a with a project that could go places in this environment. >> Ah sweet sweet deal. Yeah, very clever structuring. >> Who are we scoring >> for? I'm I'm scoring. I just like when a small company can can do a big deal without actually having to like fund very much upfront. I just think it's really cool. >> 100% sour. Follow your thoughts. >> Sour. >> I think we actually have to have a reflection here given the keenness and the gold market and the precious metals whether it's uh this hemllo lbo out of bareric. We go look at all the wheaten and all the price contingent. Uh, and this isn't uh this isn't price contingent uh with a pile of net cash the way White Haven did with BHP. This is brand new companies raising fresh capital and then layering on a very complicated capital structure between streams, price contingent. Um, and I also just like to say there's no such there's no such thing as a 100x or a 20x on the spreadsheet at any point in time. You can talk me into a 3x, a 5x. Um, and then something has to happen either the whole commodity paradigm has to change or when the company or the asset has to change to actually give you the next 5x on the 5x. Um, and it seems like we're doing a lot of deals right now where we're basically betting on the gold price is going to go a lot higher in real terms. It's not going to go down. If it goes down, whatever. We we bought a call option. And these are assets that some of these assets, coffee particularly, what did it last sell for? 500 million bucks is what Gold Corp paid for it. I'm going to assume a gold price that's less than half of what it was today. Newman is not stupid. Like if you want to play for 4,500 gold and another,000 bucks an ounce in the next 12 to 24 months, 4day will make you a lot of money. But let's not pretend we're not talking about buying call options 20 30% spot price out of the money. probably >> like I'm not I'm not super close to these but just like >> new months letting this go out the door >> at that price. So, so the the Hemllo thing I put in a different category be like on the cap I think I don't think the cap structure of um fuete is is particularly ownorous purely because the like 100 million of the headline number is a 3% NSR which can be bought back 100% of you know and you're only going to do that if like the economics kind of justified. >> So why is Newmont why is Newmont throwing this out the door? Why why at these gold prices is Newmont throwing something out the door which is basically free optionality like that's the >> I think this is just all part of like I think this is just consistent messaging since the moment you know new acquired new crest and there was and Tom Palmer comes out and well in that announcement says we're going to devest noncore assets and then they provide a list of all of the noncore assets they're going to devest and I think they're just they're just like following through with what they said they were going to do. gold price has moved a lot since then. I don't like to your point like I do think there's it is kind of questionable when majors like offload their optionality and yes there are certain assets that fit to be in major portfolios but there are other majors who take a view of like never devesting their optionality. They just like order and Agos like for a large part fits that category. They're not known to sell stuff. I guess selling things that don't move the needle anymore. But yeah, it's just what was the holding cost on coffee? It's a project. It's not a my there's not tailing dam tailings dams. There's it's one thing to say this my will never be more than 2% of my ebit doss. So I don't want the liability that comes with it being one of our operations because it doesn't move the needle that I think we all understand. But how long has Galore Creek sat in the tech portfolio or Shaft Creek? It's just you you you land bank projects and at 3600 gold when you've already well exceeded your devestature objectives. Why? >> Yeah. Well, well, here's another way to frame it. What's New Pumant's um Yeah. What's what's New stake in London Gold worth? Right. and like had the like like I do think new maybe understands that there like assets in other like you know companies portfolios where that's the sole thing and they retain and they they hold shares like maybe they'll actually realize a far better return in the process as well. Uh that was new crest steel not new months but yeah >> true >> I I do find the nature of sort of giving a list of assets to the market that we're going to kind of sell an interesting kind of dynamic. I I I kind of understand why they did it. They sort of non-core assets that aren't massively moving the dial. The market understands where they're going and and can sort of factor that all in. It is a kind of interesting strategy to to kind of reveal your cards to to the person on the other side of the table. >> I got one before we do the I got one for you guys. Think of resources recapitalization. >> Uh yeah, look it looks it look I I'm just not not at all familiar with the asset or anything, but um yeah, I think it's cool to see. I um yeah, wish her and and Brandon the best of luck with it. Those guys know the zinc market. >> I suspect you've got some thoughts on this one. >> I reckon you're ding ding ding on this one, mate. >> You have no idea. >> Look, 20 million tons of high-grade, call it 10 plus zinc equivalent, uh probably sitting there at uh I'm gonna butcher the name. Um, Sylvia is going to get drilled. Um, I think it's just really refreshing for two incredible people, both as people and characters, but also as talents in the business, to look at something so thoughtfully and realize based on their recent professional experience that from a 22 million Canadian pre- money uh basis, you could reframe this and not chase the big punish, the big score the way maybe prior strategics tried to push the management team and instead say okay from where we are today what is the economic maximizing path they're clearly a high-grade core but this is something that some really smart people have looked at in the past uh it kind of got left by the wayside and I think this opportunity to give this project a Lazarus moment and and reinject some life and get it swimming again with some really thoughtful people who know how to drive deal tension. They know how to drive development. Um, and I know these guys won't sleep until they've done everything in their power to drive a great outcome. First chapter of many. >> First chapter of many. Awesome, mate. Thank you for for jumping on the show and yeah letting us pick your brain and and chatting through everything happening in the mining world. >> Of course boys hopefully I get to your side of the world sooner rather than >> sure. >> Always great to chat with the koala as always mate and >> always be it heated discussion. >> We only disagreed on one thing today. I was disappointed about that. very very disappointing on that front but as always mate we love picking apart what's going on in the mining world and there was no shortage of that today a massive thank you to our partners that make it happen Sanvic ground support I mark the conference coming up on October 21 to October 23 in Sydney and last but not least focus the platform by market >> uru now remember I'm an idiot JD is an idiot if you thought any of this was anything other than entertainment you're an idiot and you need to read out a disclaimer