Mark Skousen: Gold, Silver in Major Bull Market, "Permanent Inflation" is Here
Summary
Precious Metals Bull Market: Strong enthusiasm around gold and silver with mining exhibitors bustling, driven by renewed bull market dynamics.
Gold Outlook: Drivers include permanent inflation, concerns over the dollar’s reserve status, and central bank buying; a pullback is seen as healthy with a stretch target up to $5,000 amid possible consolidation.
Silver Thesis: Framed as a superior long-term inflation hedge despite volatility and premiums, with illustrative examples of purchasing power and Gresham’s law.
AI/Tech Risks: AI boom compared to the dot-com era with potential for a significant shakeout; outright crashes are less likely due to market halts and policy intervention, but a bear market in AI/tech is plausible.
Macro Backdrop: Emphasis on persistent inflation, rising interest burden and national debt, and tariffs weighing on supply chains, creating conditions for market volatility and a potential dollar scare.
Bitcoin: Noted as the top performer in many of the last 15 years and a candidate to lead in 2026, though currently lagging gold’s performance this year.
Uranium: Positive view supported by growing Western acceptance of nuclear as a safer alternative energy, with uranium equities having doubled yet potentially offering further upside.
References: Companies mentioned contextually include Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and the QQQ ETF, but no single stock was pitched as a top idea.
Transcript
[music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Mark Scousson. He's known as America's economist and he's editor at Forecast and Strategies, a professor at Chapman University, producer of Freedomfest and the author of 25 books. We have the latest one right here. Thank you so much for being here, >> Charlotte. It's been it's a pleasure. Yeah. New Orleans, my favorite town. >> Yes. I was going to ask you, I think everybody knows you've been coming to this conference for quite a while, and I know it's early on in this event, but is there anything you can say about the mood at this conference that is different than previous years or similar? Any thoughts so far? >> Yeah, that's a good beginning because I've been around at this conference longer than any other speaker here at this conference. I started in 1978. I did not get there for the earliest in ' 74. Uh but I've been there in the 70s, 80s, you know, all all of five decades, I guess, if you will. And the the height of the market, there was 3,000 people here at this conference in 1980 when Ronald Reagan was elected president. And what was really interesting about that event was that I thought everyone would be excited about Reagan being elected and that uh this could be a change, a paradigm shift away from gold and silver and more traditional investing in stocks and bonds. That was my perspective. But I turned out that I was very much the minority and that even Jim Blancher, the founder of this conference, was very negative. He thought there would be no change. And yet we went through a 20-year bare market in gold and silver and stocks and bonds, traditional investments, uh, rallied tremendously and and we're still enjoying that kind of a bull market, maybe not in bonds, but in stocks. So there's been a wilderness period of time when attendance slowed. Uh, very few people they continued the conference the whole time. But um, this there's a renaissance going on now. I mean, this is the biggest turnout I've seen in 10 years. And mainly because gold and silver have really hit a major bull market. And um so there's plenty of exhibitors. Uh the mining companies uh this this is the good old days in so many ways. And uh but it's a you know this is a feast or famine kind of business. You know, the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat is very common. I like Rick Rule's statement which I have another book I have is called the maximums of Wall Street and in it I have a quote from Rick Rule who's one of the mining experts here. I'm sure you'll interview him. So Rick uh says u you know the uh we've lived through the hard times now it's time to enjoy the good times and that's what's happening right now. We'll see how long it lasts. >> We'll see. We'll see. But for now it definitely it seems busy. People seem optimistic right now. And as you mentioned, it's it's probably largely because of what we see going on with gold and silver prices. So, we've seen them get to all-time highs this year. I know we're in a little bit of a pullback right now, but they're historically high. And I wondered if you could talk a little bit about what you see as the main drivers of gold right now. >> It's been a really tough question because it really has moved much much faster, much quicker than I expected. Uh and so I do think that the pullback was really necessary. I was glad to see it. That's healthy to have that sort of thing. Uh but um what has pushed gold higher? It's really hard to say because uh I guess even though uh the Trump administration is engaging in a major shift in um the approach we we've been pro globalization expansion uh he was um elected on the basis of uh of bringing back tradition uh cultural tradition and maybe some sanity. back to government. Um, so you would expect stocks to do well, which they have, but gold and silver have also done well. So I think it's because of a couple of reasons. One is inflation. We've entered an era of what I call permanent inflation. And we have since World War II. If I have a wonderful chart that I'm showing here at this conference where prior to World War II, inflation was temporary due to wars. But after World War II, inflation became permanent. Higher and higher prices every year. The inflation rate may eb and it may accelerate, but it's always positive year after year. And that's happening. So I think inflation is stubborn and that's been bullish for gold and silver. But the other factor is apparently central banks are concerned about the US, the dollar being the world's currency and there's a lot of borrowing and the national debts getting out of hand. Interest payments are going up. I think there's a little bit of fear that the dollar is not going to be able to maintain its status as a world currency. And so all these central banks are now buying gold. I don't think it's so much individuals and institutions. As Robert Prector said this morning, uh gold is underowned uh by uh Wall Street and the establishment firms uh compared to stocks and bonds and even and real estate and even Bitcoin. So um I I really think that uh there is that strong uh central banks are a very powerful force when they start buying. They used to sell gold, now they're buying gold. So I think in China especially, they they're they're angry at Trump for his u and so they're backing off their purchases of Treasury bills and they're buying gold. So I think those are the factors that are involved and I don't think it's necessarily over. So I see this as a correction uh you know I don't know if it's a topping out uh and how long that will last. We're still at 4,000. So, yeah. I And and silver at 48. >> Yeah. I believe when we were corresponding ahead of time, you're mentioning you you had a price target of more like 5,000 for gold. So, how how are you situating that right now? It feels it feels closer than ever. >> Yeah. Shocking. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> I mean, it really it's a little bit unexpected even on my part. But I made it made this prediction as kind of an outrageous prediction which you normally do in promotional copy to get people to pay attention. So I just threw out this $5,000 figure not thinking that on a technical basis it would hit it. But I think I think we got up to 44500 or something like that at the top and then it's backed off. So we'll see if it hits 5,000 by the end of this year. It's still conceivable that it could happen, but uh if you follow the Robert Prector's Elliot wave theory, I don't know if you listen to his talk today, but he was rather uh he's he he thinks that uh this is the that the cycle has been complete and that this round we've seen the highs in gold and silver and it won't be another year or more, at least the way I read it, that he would see that. And I think he's more accurate on his predictions of gold than he is on the stock market. He's I think he's generally missed the stock market perspective, but uh he does seem to he may have a point about gold. We we may need to have a resting point here for a while. >> Yeah, I think it seems like everyone is agreeing that we needed this pullback and the question now is everyone's divided on how long it will last. Yeah. >> And you started to mention silver as well. So, I'll bring up the silver price and ask you maybe where you see that going because we do tend to hear it follows gold and then outperforms. So, any thoughts? >> So, I have I always carry with me a American Eagle silver dollar. Canadians make this also, right? Canadian. So, I carry this with me at all times. And when I teach at Chapman University, I offer these every student gets a silver dollar who takes my class at the end of the class and it has the date 2025 when they took my course. And so it's always a reminder to them and I say keep this on you and it'll give you good luck. It's costing me a pretty penny now. These things are like 60 bucks, you know, because of the premium. >> And uh I am concerned. I I may want to give him a copy of my book instead of that because the price, you know, one of the things that's interesting about silver is that in 1960, this was before your time, but I remember in 1960 you could go into a bookstore and how much would you pay for a hardback book, a best-selling book in a bookstore in 1960? How many dollars do you think? >> I'm afraid to get $2. >> $3. $3. That was three silver dollars. Do you know how much you can buy a hardback book today in terms of a silver? >> Probably about one >> one or less. >> Yeah. >> Less than one silver dollar. So silver doesn't pay any interest and yet it's a superior inflation hedge. And gold is the same thing, I think. Although silver I think is more volatile but has been a better inflation hedge. So I'm actually quite bullish on silver. I'm I'm disappointed that it's so expensive now. I wished it was cheaper for my students and and just to purchase it and stuff like that. Uh I it's a tragedy in today's world from a a long-term perspective that these don't circulate anymore that we just have this token paper money and and little tinty type of coins. Um and these are all beautiful coins. It's got Lady Liberty on here and God we trust the rising sun which was Ben Franklin's favorite symbol. He's right on the and and and and the eagle on the back. And where are these? 50 million of these were minted this year. At least 50 million. You know where they are? >> Safety deposit boxes. >> Yeah. Hit >> in dark. These beautiful coins. I mean, is that not ironic? Yeah. That we live in a society where gold and silver because of Gresham's law, bad money drives out good. So, so you have the uh paper money. Uh I got a $1 paper money. Okay. They're both legal tender at $1. Could do this with Canadian also. So, they're both legal tender. Okay. So, which one do you put in your pocket and save or in a safety deposit box and which do you spend? So, it's called Gresham's law. >> Bad money drives out good money. And that's exactly what is happening. And it's too bad that that's happening. >> Yeah. Yeah. I think the the visual reminder there really helps. And I want to talk about another point you mentioned in the leadup to this interview, which is that gold has outperformed the stock market in the 21st century. You mentioned that's something that's been on your mind. So, what is that telling us about the world today? >> Yeah. So there in the 21st century we've had uh I mean when in the latter gold and silver were deregulated by 1970 more or less. Okay. And uh they they increased in price and stuff but you had these long periods of time of a bare market 20-year bare market. Really gold was selling for $200 to $300 an ounce in the year 2000. And so if you look at the charts, if you look at total return of the stock market in the 21st century, gold itself, even though it doesn't pay any interest or dividends, has outperformed the stock market. And I think it's for three uh three events that occurred. One was 9/11 and we had the beginning of the terrorist attacks and uh you had the war uh in Iraq, very very expensive. Uh then you had the financial crisis of 2008 that caused a massive inflation and a bailout of the banks and Wall Street and then you had the pandemic of 2020 and money supply went up 40% during that time period. So you had these three events that caused a reawakening of gold and silver. uh even though again a lot more volatility than the stock market itself but overall return was definitely much [clears throat] better. Yeah. >> Well and I think people wonder right now and especially maybe at this event looking at the stock market are we due for a correction maybe something worse than that. How do you see it? >> I do think that uh it's uh it's gone up too far too fast. uh reminds me of the.com boom where you know AI is definitely revolutionary. Uh but like.com period there's there was the um the good seed and the bad seed. Uh and uh how do you know the difference? Uh it's really hard to know. So in the dotcom boom there was a legitimate technological advance with the internet. Uh and there were a lot of good companies that were developed at that time, but we really uh had a lot of bad investments and you had had a cleaning out process uh a burning if you will of the wheat and the tears. You know, it's the par Jesus's parable at work here. Uh and uh I think that's what's happening with AI. So there's going to I think there's going to be a falling out at some point and the good guys will survive and prosper. Uh but you never know how long these things will last. And so uh in in the AI boom I remember in 1999 looking at the uh the uh QQQ the technology and it was hyperbolic and we economists looked at that and they say well this can't last but it lasted another 3 months into 2000 the year 2000 before it finally came down and you had a two to threeyear bare market in technology at that time. So, why couldn't that happen once people see, oh, I'm not I'm not being made billionaires overnight anymore. Uh, there could be a real falling out and so forth. I I'm not as pessimistic as uh some people are on the stock market. Uh, Proctor said it's a massive insane mania and stuff like that and you could see a potential crash. Why don't we don't see crashes anymore. We see bare markets, but we don't see crashes. Why? Because the government intervenes. They have they stop the trading on the marketplace. If the market drops 10% or more, they stop trading. And also, you have a plunge protection team. You have the SEC, you have the Federal Reserve, you have the Treasury. They get together, their plunge protection team, and they intervene and keep the market stabilized. So for those reasons I have uh I actually predicted the 1987 stock market crash. The stock market fell 22.5% in one day and I actually got people out. Nobody followed my advice but I predicted that we would have a bare market. We ended up losing money 22.5% but that was the bottom because the government learned very quickly we can't allow this to happen in the future. They can't stop bare markets, but they can intervene and keep crashes from happening. So, I don't use the term crash hardly ever anymore. I don't think we see that sort of thing going on, but we do see bare markets and we could see a bare market in these AI stocks and it could h it's really hard to predict when it would happen. Well, and I would ask if the same goes for the economy as well because especially again at this event, you hear a lot of concerns about a recession or stagflation, all these different words, and it seems like another case where the government will just perhaps step in and stop anything really terrible from happening. Any any thoughts on that? So I am uh famous for creating a new statistic called gross outputs go and gross output is followed is uh measured by the the US federal government the bureau of economic analysis the BEA that puts out GDP statistics and gross output GO is measures spending at all stages of production and it's been growing at a extremely slow rate like 1% a year That's it. And this includes the supply chain. The supply chain is not growing very fast. And I think one of the reasons is the Trump tariffs. Those are taxes. I think they've really hurt the supply chain. They've hurt the economy. And uh but that's reversible. I mean, Trump could overnight saying, "Hey, we're not we're going to eliminate the tariffs temporarily uh to get the economy going again." Uh so that's certainly happened. But the national debt problem is a serious problem and interest rates are rising. So the payment of interest is increasing faster than the debt itself. I mean you got to refinance trillions and trillions of treasuries. And with China not willing to buy these treasuries anymore, who are going to buy these? So there could be a dollar crisis of some sort of monetary crisis that could bring about a bare market. And I've said uh I've predicted a number of times that these technology stocks could fall half in value and still be overvalued. [laughter] So uh we'll we'll see what happens in that regard. But it it is something to be concerned about. And I am concerned about I'm speaking to tomorrow on Trump's uh his trade policies and fortress America is what I call it. his he from everything I can see it's not just a negotiating skill. Everyone says well it's just a negotiation but you know I think it's more than that because the way he's constantly preaching it's like America first and protectionism is a permanent change. So there's a paradigm shift in today's philosophy away from globalization which was very beneficial to everybody. I don't care what Trump says that we were ripped off by foreigners and stuff like that. Well, you go into Walmart, you go into Target, are you really ripped off as consumers? Now, maybe as producers, you know, workers, they had to change jobs and stuff like that, but that's part of the dynamics of creative disruption that the economy uh goes through. And you and that's part of life. I mean, how many people have the same job for their entire lives? I know I haven't. I mean, you probably haven't either. You You do a lot of different things. Labor out of land, labor, and capital. This is what I teach at Chapman. Land, labor, and capital. Which one is the most flexible? >> Now, capital itself is very flexible. But capital goods, once you produce the tools and equipment and buildings, they're not very flexible. You can only use it for one thing. So, capital goods, labor, and rent and and uh and land. Land is limited in what you can do with that as well. But labor is the most flexible. You can be retrained. You can get a new job. And we need to recognize that in America and not be afraid of the dynamics of the economy. Well, and maybe we can tie into your new book as well because this is about the life of Benjamin Franklin, but it's also about teaching people, okay, what can you learn and apply from his life? So, we're in these these interesting times. What would you pull out maybe some some lessons for people? >> Well, Charlotte, thank you for bringing up my book, which is here. Uh, and uh I have a lot of fun with the title. I I tell people who is the greatest American. We have a really interesting discussion about that. But Franklin is a unique individual because I came up with 22 careers that he lived, you know, as an inventor and a scientist and a printer and a publisher and a capitalist and a and a banker and a legislator and a diplomat. I mean, you start coming up with all these different things that he did in life. So, he's a jack of all trades and a master of most. And um uh you So, my book is not a typical biography. You know, there's lots of uh uh books uh biographies of Benjamin Franklin that put out. So, what I have is 80 short chapters on how you can apply to Franklin's works and life to today. So, what did he say about trade? Well, he said no nation was ever ruined by trade, even the most disadvantaged. So, that's an important concept. He said everybody benefits ultimately from trade. So, uh open markets. She also believed in a liberal immigration policy. He said, "If you if you have skills, come to America. We we have an open door policy. We don't have that anymore. It's very difficult to get into America and so forth." And so Franklin said they let's have an open not open borders where anybody comes across, but if you qualify, if you have skills, come on. I mean, if you look at if you look at Nvidia, you look at Microsoft, you look at Tesla, they're all run by foreigners, a lot of them from Canada. Yeah. But they came to the states [laughter] because we are the we attract entrepreneurs. And if we close the door to that, then our days are numbered and other countries are going to step forward. I have appreciated Canada's open policy toward uh Hong Kong, you know, people from China and so forth coming over and becoming citizens and that's to that's to Canada's advantage in my opinion. So globalization is really very positive. Inflation now Franklin is very modern. He he kind of favored the central banking Alexander Hamilton approach. She actually wrote an essay, a pamphlet uh in favor of printing of paper money because England restricted gold and silver to the colonies. They couldn't they couldn't mint their own coins. And so uh he advocated the printing of money but not to excess because he knew that that would cause inflation. So he's very modern in that respect. And and Franklin is uh he he actually designed the very first bronze uh coin in America. And underneath it, it says, "Mind mind your business." Yeah, mind your own business was his slogan that he had there. And um also taxes. Uh he said a virtuous and industrious people may be cheaply governed. So cheap government, lowcost government, easy taxes. What are easy taxes? Well, taxes are you pay it and you don't engage in tax shelters and tax havens and stuff like that. If it's easy, you know, it's just 10%, okay, I can pay 10%, but if it's 40%, if it's 80%, I'm gonna engage in all kinds of shenanigans to get around the tax. So, he favored a low tax uh minimalsiz government in that respect. And in diplomacy, in diplomacy, uh he actually um President Trump actually brought in the bust of Ben Franklin into the Oval Office. I have a picture of him whole uh with the bust of Franklin and I think he was channeling bust uh Franklin's experience as a diplomat. He was America's greatest diplomat and uh what he said was though he says I learned by sad experience never to speak ill of anyone in public. Now Trump is could could learn a lot from that statement. But Franklin would negotiate and work with people and by befriending them. There was one legislator who was his enemy and he didn't like Franklin at all. So Franklin went up to him one time and he said, "I see you have in your library a book that looks very interesting. Would you mind if I borrow that book from you?" And he gladly loaned the book to Ben Franklin. Books were very scarce back then, very expensive. They became fast friends as a result of that of Franklin reaching out and saying, "Hey, uh, let's be friends." So, that's the kind of thing I talk about 80 chapters. It was based on a column that I wrote for six or seven years for the Franklin Prosperity Report that was published by Newsmax. They accepted all of my columns except one. One of them was censored. So, what do you think the topic was? >> Do you know anything about Franklin? >> No. No. What what was what was the topic? >> It was the rather salacious chapter about Franklin and his sex life. >> Oh my goodness. >> Yes. Wow. >> Franklin was famous for being a ladies man. Now he was often viewed as a lecher and a womanizer. Other terms were used. He was also a heretic when it came to religion. He was not an active churchgoer and stuff. So, John Adams and his wife Abigail, they always complained about Franklin being a um non-believer and a heretic and a womanizer. They were both over in France together. And Franklin got along tremendously with the French and the French women loved him. Well, the Adams, they were very puritanical and they didn't understand the the physical contact and stuff. even with married women. Franklin Franklin was a a widowerower at the time. Uh but he was friends with everybody and the salons over there were run by women. The intellectuals, the intellectual gettogethers were hosted by uh women and often beautiful women and Franklin. So he was very much attracted to this and but Adams and the others. But Franklin was a very good diplomat. He raised all the money. He raised all the armaments. He sent generals over so that without that the Americans would have never won the revolution. And one of the things he wanted to do when he signed the treaty between England and him, it was in France that they did this treaty. One of the things he stipulated says, uh, we would like to have Canada as part of the United States. You know what Trump is always saying about, let's make it the 51st state. Well, that one didn't go through, but it was Franklin's wish because he said culturally we're very similar. Uh, so anyway, that's a little bit about my book and it's it's already in its second printing and available on Amazon and where all good books are sold. >> Great great anecdotes. Thank you so much for sharing. And I'll let you get back out onto the show floor. I know you've got lots to do, but before I do, I'm asking I'm going to try to ask everybody this question. looking forward to 2026, what would be your pick for the best performing asset of of next year? >> So, I have a chart that shows the different asset classes and which have done the best over the years. And of course, Bitcoin dominates over the last 15 years. I think nine out of the last 15 years, uh, Bitcoin was the best performing asset and it could happen again. I mean uh if Bitcoin uh continues to be this new technology and stuff uh uh it's this year it's only up 20 25% uh which is beating the mark and stuff but gold is up 50%. So uh uh it's really hard to predict 2026 because um uh it is a midterm election year. Um so um and the stock market's already done really well. Gold has already done really well. So maybe Bitcoin will be the best uh performer. Uh it's really hard to hard to predict these things, but maybe in the crypto field that may come back alive. I actually maybe uranium, you know, there's still a lot to I think there's a lot of uh more I mean uranium stocks have doubled and stuff like that, but there could be more room because it it's got the support of most of the West now as an alternative energy source, a safer source. It's considered safer now. So maybe uranium would be a even a better pick. I I'll stick with that one. >> Okay, that sounds pretty good to me. Yeah. Well, thank you so much for coming on to talk. This is great. >> Yeah, thank you. >> Of course. Yes. Yeah. Great to have you. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Mark Scousson.
Mark Skousen: Gold, Silver in Major Bull Market, "Permanent Inflation" is Here
Summary
Transcript
[music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Mark Scousson. He's known as America's economist and he's editor at Forecast and Strategies, a professor at Chapman University, producer of Freedomfest and the author of 25 books. We have the latest one right here. Thank you so much for being here, >> Charlotte. It's been it's a pleasure. Yeah. New Orleans, my favorite town. >> Yes. I was going to ask you, I think everybody knows you've been coming to this conference for quite a while, and I know it's early on in this event, but is there anything you can say about the mood at this conference that is different than previous years or similar? Any thoughts so far? >> Yeah, that's a good beginning because I've been around at this conference longer than any other speaker here at this conference. I started in 1978. I did not get there for the earliest in ' 74. Uh but I've been there in the 70s, 80s, you know, all all of five decades, I guess, if you will. And the the height of the market, there was 3,000 people here at this conference in 1980 when Ronald Reagan was elected president. And what was really interesting about that event was that I thought everyone would be excited about Reagan being elected and that uh this could be a change, a paradigm shift away from gold and silver and more traditional investing in stocks and bonds. That was my perspective. But I turned out that I was very much the minority and that even Jim Blancher, the founder of this conference, was very negative. He thought there would be no change. And yet we went through a 20-year bare market in gold and silver and stocks and bonds, traditional investments, uh, rallied tremendously and and we're still enjoying that kind of a bull market, maybe not in bonds, but in stocks. So there's been a wilderness period of time when attendance slowed. Uh, very few people they continued the conference the whole time. But um, this there's a renaissance going on now. I mean, this is the biggest turnout I've seen in 10 years. And mainly because gold and silver have really hit a major bull market. And um so there's plenty of exhibitors. Uh the mining companies uh this this is the good old days in so many ways. And uh but it's a you know this is a feast or famine kind of business. You know, the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat is very common. I like Rick Rule's statement which I have another book I have is called the maximums of Wall Street and in it I have a quote from Rick Rule who's one of the mining experts here. I'm sure you'll interview him. So Rick uh says u you know the uh we've lived through the hard times now it's time to enjoy the good times and that's what's happening right now. We'll see how long it lasts. >> We'll see. We'll see. But for now it definitely it seems busy. People seem optimistic right now. And as you mentioned, it's it's probably largely because of what we see going on with gold and silver prices. So, we've seen them get to all-time highs this year. I know we're in a little bit of a pullback right now, but they're historically high. And I wondered if you could talk a little bit about what you see as the main drivers of gold right now. >> It's been a really tough question because it really has moved much much faster, much quicker than I expected. Uh and so I do think that the pullback was really necessary. I was glad to see it. That's healthy to have that sort of thing. Uh but um what has pushed gold higher? It's really hard to say because uh I guess even though uh the Trump administration is engaging in a major shift in um the approach we we've been pro globalization expansion uh he was um elected on the basis of uh of bringing back tradition uh cultural tradition and maybe some sanity. back to government. Um, so you would expect stocks to do well, which they have, but gold and silver have also done well. So I think it's because of a couple of reasons. One is inflation. We've entered an era of what I call permanent inflation. And we have since World War II. If I have a wonderful chart that I'm showing here at this conference where prior to World War II, inflation was temporary due to wars. But after World War II, inflation became permanent. Higher and higher prices every year. The inflation rate may eb and it may accelerate, but it's always positive year after year. And that's happening. So I think inflation is stubborn and that's been bullish for gold and silver. But the other factor is apparently central banks are concerned about the US, the dollar being the world's currency and there's a lot of borrowing and the national debts getting out of hand. Interest payments are going up. I think there's a little bit of fear that the dollar is not going to be able to maintain its status as a world currency. And so all these central banks are now buying gold. I don't think it's so much individuals and institutions. As Robert Prector said this morning, uh gold is underowned uh by uh Wall Street and the establishment firms uh compared to stocks and bonds and even and real estate and even Bitcoin. So um I I really think that uh there is that strong uh central banks are a very powerful force when they start buying. They used to sell gold, now they're buying gold. So I think in China especially, they they're they're angry at Trump for his u and so they're backing off their purchases of Treasury bills and they're buying gold. So I think those are the factors that are involved and I don't think it's necessarily over. So I see this as a correction uh you know I don't know if it's a topping out uh and how long that will last. We're still at 4,000. So, yeah. I And and silver at 48. >> Yeah. I believe when we were corresponding ahead of time, you're mentioning you you had a price target of more like 5,000 for gold. So, how how are you situating that right now? It feels it feels closer than ever. >> Yeah. Shocking. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> I mean, it really it's a little bit unexpected even on my part. But I made it made this prediction as kind of an outrageous prediction which you normally do in promotional copy to get people to pay attention. So I just threw out this $5,000 figure not thinking that on a technical basis it would hit it. But I think I think we got up to 44500 or something like that at the top and then it's backed off. So we'll see if it hits 5,000 by the end of this year. It's still conceivable that it could happen, but uh if you follow the Robert Prector's Elliot wave theory, I don't know if you listen to his talk today, but he was rather uh he's he he thinks that uh this is the that the cycle has been complete and that this round we've seen the highs in gold and silver and it won't be another year or more, at least the way I read it, that he would see that. And I think he's more accurate on his predictions of gold than he is on the stock market. He's I think he's generally missed the stock market perspective, but uh he does seem to he may have a point about gold. We we may need to have a resting point here for a while. >> Yeah, I think it seems like everyone is agreeing that we needed this pullback and the question now is everyone's divided on how long it will last. Yeah. >> And you started to mention silver as well. So, I'll bring up the silver price and ask you maybe where you see that going because we do tend to hear it follows gold and then outperforms. So, any thoughts? >> So, I have I always carry with me a American Eagle silver dollar. Canadians make this also, right? Canadian. So, I carry this with me at all times. And when I teach at Chapman University, I offer these every student gets a silver dollar who takes my class at the end of the class and it has the date 2025 when they took my course. And so it's always a reminder to them and I say keep this on you and it'll give you good luck. It's costing me a pretty penny now. These things are like 60 bucks, you know, because of the premium. >> And uh I am concerned. I I may want to give him a copy of my book instead of that because the price, you know, one of the things that's interesting about silver is that in 1960, this was before your time, but I remember in 1960 you could go into a bookstore and how much would you pay for a hardback book, a best-selling book in a bookstore in 1960? How many dollars do you think? >> I'm afraid to get $2. >> $3. $3. That was three silver dollars. Do you know how much you can buy a hardback book today in terms of a silver? >> Probably about one >> one or less. >> Yeah. >> Less than one silver dollar. So silver doesn't pay any interest and yet it's a superior inflation hedge. And gold is the same thing, I think. Although silver I think is more volatile but has been a better inflation hedge. So I'm actually quite bullish on silver. I'm I'm disappointed that it's so expensive now. I wished it was cheaper for my students and and just to purchase it and stuff like that. Uh I it's a tragedy in today's world from a a long-term perspective that these don't circulate anymore that we just have this token paper money and and little tinty type of coins. Um and these are all beautiful coins. It's got Lady Liberty on here and God we trust the rising sun which was Ben Franklin's favorite symbol. He's right on the and and and and the eagle on the back. And where are these? 50 million of these were minted this year. At least 50 million. You know where they are? >> Safety deposit boxes. >> Yeah. Hit >> in dark. These beautiful coins. I mean, is that not ironic? Yeah. That we live in a society where gold and silver because of Gresham's law, bad money drives out good. So, so you have the uh paper money. Uh I got a $1 paper money. Okay. They're both legal tender at $1. Could do this with Canadian also. So, they're both legal tender. Okay. So, which one do you put in your pocket and save or in a safety deposit box and which do you spend? So, it's called Gresham's law. >> Bad money drives out good money. And that's exactly what is happening. And it's too bad that that's happening. >> Yeah. Yeah. I think the the visual reminder there really helps. And I want to talk about another point you mentioned in the leadup to this interview, which is that gold has outperformed the stock market in the 21st century. You mentioned that's something that's been on your mind. So, what is that telling us about the world today? >> Yeah. So there in the 21st century we've had uh I mean when in the latter gold and silver were deregulated by 1970 more or less. Okay. And uh they they increased in price and stuff but you had these long periods of time of a bare market 20-year bare market. Really gold was selling for $200 to $300 an ounce in the year 2000. And so if you look at the charts, if you look at total return of the stock market in the 21st century, gold itself, even though it doesn't pay any interest or dividends, has outperformed the stock market. And I think it's for three uh three events that occurred. One was 9/11 and we had the beginning of the terrorist attacks and uh you had the war uh in Iraq, very very expensive. Uh then you had the financial crisis of 2008 that caused a massive inflation and a bailout of the banks and Wall Street and then you had the pandemic of 2020 and money supply went up 40% during that time period. So you had these three events that caused a reawakening of gold and silver. uh even though again a lot more volatility than the stock market itself but overall return was definitely much [clears throat] better. Yeah. >> Well and I think people wonder right now and especially maybe at this event looking at the stock market are we due for a correction maybe something worse than that. How do you see it? >> I do think that uh it's uh it's gone up too far too fast. uh reminds me of the.com boom where you know AI is definitely revolutionary. Uh but like.com period there's there was the um the good seed and the bad seed. Uh and uh how do you know the difference? Uh it's really hard to know. So in the dotcom boom there was a legitimate technological advance with the internet. Uh and there were a lot of good companies that were developed at that time, but we really uh had a lot of bad investments and you had had a cleaning out process uh a burning if you will of the wheat and the tears. You know, it's the par Jesus's parable at work here. Uh and uh I think that's what's happening with AI. So there's going to I think there's going to be a falling out at some point and the good guys will survive and prosper. Uh but you never know how long these things will last. And so uh in in the AI boom I remember in 1999 looking at the uh the uh QQQ the technology and it was hyperbolic and we economists looked at that and they say well this can't last but it lasted another 3 months into 2000 the year 2000 before it finally came down and you had a two to threeyear bare market in technology at that time. So, why couldn't that happen once people see, oh, I'm not I'm not being made billionaires overnight anymore. Uh, there could be a real falling out and so forth. I I'm not as pessimistic as uh some people are on the stock market. Uh, Proctor said it's a massive insane mania and stuff like that and you could see a potential crash. Why don't we don't see crashes anymore. We see bare markets, but we don't see crashes. Why? Because the government intervenes. They have they stop the trading on the marketplace. If the market drops 10% or more, they stop trading. And also, you have a plunge protection team. You have the SEC, you have the Federal Reserve, you have the Treasury. They get together, their plunge protection team, and they intervene and keep the market stabilized. So for those reasons I have uh I actually predicted the 1987 stock market crash. The stock market fell 22.5% in one day and I actually got people out. Nobody followed my advice but I predicted that we would have a bare market. We ended up losing money 22.5% but that was the bottom because the government learned very quickly we can't allow this to happen in the future. They can't stop bare markets, but they can intervene and keep crashes from happening. So, I don't use the term crash hardly ever anymore. I don't think we see that sort of thing going on, but we do see bare markets and we could see a bare market in these AI stocks and it could h it's really hard to predict when it would happen. Well, and I would ask if the same goes for the economy as well because especially again at this event, you hear a lot of concerns about a recession or stagflation, all these different words, and it seems like another case where the government will just perhaps step in and stop anything really terrible from happening. Any any thoughts on that? So I am uh famous for creating a new statistic called gross outputs go and gross output is followed is uh measured by the the US federal government the bureau of economic analysis the BEA that puts out GDP statistics and gross output GO is measures spending at all stages of production and it's been growing at a extremely slow rate like 1% a year That's it. And this includes the supply chain. The supply chain is not growing very fast. And I think one of the reasons is the Trump tariffs. Those are taxes. I think they've really hurt the supply chain. They've hurt the economy. And uh but that's reversible. I mean, Trump could overnight saying, "Hey, we're not we're going to eliminate the tariffs temporarily uh to get the economy going again." Uh so that's certainly happened. But the national debt problem is a serious problem and interest rates are rising. So the payment of interest is increasing faster than the debt itself. I mean you got to refinance trillions and trillions of treasuries. And with China not willing to buy these treasuries anymore, who are going to buy these? So there could be a dollar crisis of some sort of monetary crisis that could bring about a bare market. And I've said uh I've predicted a number of times that these technology stocks could fall half in value and still be overvalued. [laughter] So uh we'll we'll see what happens in that regard. But it it is something to be concerned about. And I am concerned about I'm speaking to tomorrow on Trump's uh his trade policies and fortress America is what I call it. his he from everything I can see it's not just a negotiating skill. Everyone says well it's just a negotiation but you know I think it's more than that because the way he's constantly preaching it's like America first and protectionism is a permanent change. So there's a paradigm shift in today's philosophy away from globalization which was very beneficial to everybody. I don't care what Trump says that we were ripped off by foreigners and stuff like that. Well, you go into Walmart, you go into Target, are you really ripped off as consumers? Now, maybe as producers, you know, workers, they had to change jobs and stuff like that, but that's part of the dynamics of creative disruption that the economy uh goes through. And you and that's part of life. I mean, how many people have the same job for their entire lives? I know I haven't. I mean, you probably haven't either. You You do a lot of different things. Labor out of land, labor, and capital. This is what I teach at Chapman. Land, labor, and capital. Which one is the most flexible? >> Now, capital itself is very flexible. But capital goods, once you produce the tools and equipment and buildings, they're not very flexible. You can only use it for one thing. So, capital goods, labor, and rent and and uh and land. Land is limited in what you can do with that as well. But labor is the most flexible. You can be retrained. You can get a new job. And we need to recognize that in America and not be afraid of the dynamics of the economy. Well, and maybe we can tie into your new book as well because this is about the life of Benjamin Franklin, but it's also about teaching people, okay, what can you learn and apply from his life? So, we're in these these interesting times. What would you pull out maybe some some lessons for people? >> Well, Charlotte, thank you for bringing up my book, which is here. Uh, and uh I have a lot of fun with the title. I I tell people who is the greatest American. We have a really interesting discussion about that. But Franklin is a unique individual because I came up with 22 careers that he lived, you know, as an inventor and a scientist and a printer and a publisher and a capitalist and a and a banker and a legislator and a diplomat. I mean, you start coming up with all these different things that he did in life. So, he's a jack of all trades and a master of most. And um uh you So, my book is not a typical biography. You know, there's lots of uh uh books uh biographies of Benjamin Franklin that put out. So, what I have is 80 short chapters on how you can apply to Franklin's works and life to today. So, what did he say about trade? Well, he said no nation was ever ruined by trade, even the most disadvantaged. So, that's an important concept. He said everybody benefits ultimately from trade. So, uh open markets. She also believed in a liberal immigration policy. He said, "If you if you have skills, come to America. We we have an open door policy. We don't have that anymore. It's very difficult to get into America and so forth." And so Franklin said they let's have an open not open borders where anybody comes across, but if you qualify, if you have skills, come on. I mean, if you look at if you look at Nvidia, you look at Microsoft, you look at Tesla, they're all run by foreigners, a lot of them from Canada. Yeah. But they came to the states [laughter] because we are the we attract entrepreneurs. And if we close the door to that, then our days are numbered and other countries are going to step forward. I have appreciated Canada's open policy toward uh Hong Kong, you know, people from China and so forth coming over and becoming citizens and that's to that's to Canada's advantage in my opinion. So globalization is really very positive. Inflation now Franklin is very modern. He he kind of favored the central banking Alexander Hamilton approach. She actually wrote an essay, a pamphlet uh in favor of printing of paper money because England restricted gold and silver to the colonies. They couldn't they couldn't mint their own coins. And so uh he advocated the printing of money but not to excess because he knew that that would cause inflation. So he's very modern in that respect. And and Franklin is uh he he actually designed the very first bronze uh coin in America. And underneath it, it says, "Mind mind your business." Yeah, mind your own business was his slogan that he had there. And um also taxes. Uh he said a virtuous and industrious people may be cheaply governed. So cheap government, lowcost government, easy taxes. What are easy taxes? Well, taxes are you pay it and you don't engage in tax shelters and tax havens and stuff like that. If it's easy, you know, it's just 10%, okay, I can pay 10%, but if it's 40%, if it's 80%, I'm gonna engage in all kinds of shenanigans to get around the tax. So, he favored a low tax uh minimalsiz government in that respect. And in diplomacy, in diplomacy, uh he actually um President Trump actually brought in the bust of Ben Franklin into the Oval Office. I have a picture of him whole uh with the bust of Franklin and I think he was channeling bust uh Franklin's experience as a diplomat. He was America's greatest diplomat and uh what he said was though he says I learned by sad experience never to speak ill of anyone in public. Now Trump is could could learn a lot from that statement. But Franklin would negotiate and work with people and by befriending them. There was one legislator who was his enemy and he didn't like Franklin at all. So Franklin went up to him one time and he said, "I see you have in your library a book that looks very interesting. Would you mind if I borrow that book from you?" And he gladly loaned the book to Ben Franklin. Books were very scarce back then, very expensive. They became fast friends as a result of that of Franklin reaching out and saying, "Hey, uh, let's be friends." So, that's the kind of thing I talk about 80 chapters. It was based on a column that I wrote for six or seven years for the Franklin Prosperity Report that was published by Newsmax. They accepted all of my columns except one. One of them was censored. So, what do you think the topic was? >> Do you know anything about Franklin? >> No. No. What what was what was the topic? >> It was the rather salacious chapter about Franklin and his sex life. >> Oh my goodness. >> Yes. Wow. >> Franklin was famous for being a ladies man. Now he was often viewed as a lecher and a womanizer. Other terms were used. He was also a heretic when it came to religion. He was not an active churchgoer and stuff. So, John Adams and his wife Abigail, they always complained about Franklin being a um non-believer and a heretic and a womanizer. They were both over in France together. And Franklin got along tremendously with the French and the French women loved him. Well, the Adams, they were very puritanical and they didn't understand the the physical contact and stuff. even with married women. Franklin Franklin was a a widowerower at the time. Uh but he was friends with everybody and the salons over there were run by women. The intellectuals, the intellectual gettogethers were hosted by uh women and often beautiful women and Franklin. So he was very much attracted to this and but Adams and the others. But Franklin was a very good diplomat. He raised all the money. He raised all the armaments. He sent generals over so that without that the Americans would have never won the revolution. And one of the things he wanted to do when he signed the treaty between England and him, it was in France that they did this treaty. One of the things he stipulated says, uh, we would like to have Canada as part of the United States. You know what Trump is always saying about, let's make it the 51st state. Well, that one didn't go through, but it was Franklin's wish because he said culturally we're very similar. Uh, so anyway, that's a little bit about my book and it's it's already in its second printing and available on Amazon and where all good books are sold. >> Great great anecdotes. Thank you so much for sharing. And I'll let you get back out onto the show floor. I know you've got lots to do, but before I do, I'm asking I'm going to try to ask everybody this question. looking forward to 2026, what would be your pick for the best performing asset of of next year? >> So, I have a chart that shows the different asset classes and which have done the best over the years. And of course, Bitcoin dominates over the last 15 years. I think nine out of the last 15 years, uh, Bitcoin was the best performing asset and it could happen again. I mean uh if Bitcoin uh continues to be this new technology and stuff uh uh it's this year it's only up 20 25% uh which is beating the mark and stuff but gold is up 50%. So uh uh it's really hard to predict 2026 because um uh it is a midterm election year. Um so um and the stock market's already done really well. Gold has already done really well. So maybe Bitcoin will be the best uh performer. Uh it's really hard to hard to predict these things, but maybe in the crypto field that may come back alive. I actually maybe uranium, you know, there's still a lot to I think there's a lot of uh more I mean uranium stocks have doubled and stuff like that, but there could be more room because it it's got the support of most of the West now as an alternative energy source, a safer source. It's considered safer now. So maybe uranium would be a even a better pick. I I'll stick with that one. >> Okay, that sounds pretty good to me. Yeah. Well, thank you so much for coming on to talk. This is great. >> Yeah, thank you. >> Of course. Yes. Yeah. Great to have you. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Mark Scousson.