Market Death Cross Alert: 'Everything Bubble' Pops In 2026, Watch This Indicator | Richard Smith
Summary
Bitcoin: Presenter views Bitcoin as the most liquidity-sensitive asset and a canary for markets, with cycles suggesting a bottoming phase and potential rally as QT ends and stealth QE returns.
Gold: Cycles indicate a topping/sideways-to-down phase despite central bank demand; a stronger dollar later could pressure gold, though a collapse is not expected.
AI: Massive AI and data center capex is framed as long-term debt-fueled and potentially aimed at keeping yields down; the guest is skeptical of near-term productivity benefits.
Stablecoins: Growing stablecoin market cap and the “Genius Act” channel demand into T-bills, linking crypto flows to Treasury funding and supporting overall system liquidity.
US Treasuries: Expectation of QT cessation and incremental easing via T-bill purchases; low MOVE index and tight high-yield spreads signal bond-market stability that supports risk assets near term.
US Dollar: Momentum suggests a bottoming process with potential further dip before a significant 2026 rally, which would weigh on dollar-priced assets like gold.
US Equities: Seasonal tailwinds (late December/early January) and easing liquidity could extend the topping phase and support equities, though later inflation risks loom.
Risk Management: Key watchpoints are the MOVE index and high-yield OAS; rising bond volatility or widening credit spreads would warn of broader asset corrections.
Transcript
I think we're going to start to see some form of quantitative easing. It's going to be, you know, under the radar what we're seeing with the huge spending levels, all these data centers. I think that is ultimately about keeping Treasury yields down. All of that is new debt that's issued. And it's debt that is a little longer term than the T bills. They're just refinancing their debt with short-term debt, not going out to the longer term cuz they can't afford it. All of that suggests to me that Bitcoin is I call it the canary in the coal mine because it's the most sensitive asset to liquidity. I'm pleased to welcome back to the show Richard Smith. He is the chairman of the board and executive director of the foundation for the study of cycles. Dr. Smith's uh work covers cycles for a lot of different assets. We'll be focusing on Bitcoin, gold, stocks, and the global debt cycles today. And we'll be finding out what's happening next with these asset classes and what's happening next to the global financial system. Is the global financial system on the brink of collapse? Well, this would impact all financial assets. So, this is the central theme of our discussion with Richard today. This episode is brought to you by and sponsored by Koshi, one of the largest prediction markets in the United States. It is a fully registered platform that lets users trade on realworld events. Anything from political outcomes to economic data. Go to Koshi and use my code LIN in the link down below. Click on uh the link or scan the QR code here and uh new users get $10 when they deposit $100. Welcome back to the show, Richard. Good to see you. >> Thanks for having me, David. Great to see you, too. >> And as always, people can check out our last interview with Richard linked down below where you can revisit his views. And if you haven't already, do uh subscribe to this channel for daily updates. Richard, let's dive right into uh the first asset that I want to cover, which is Bitcoin. Extreme volatility over the last couple of weeks. It's reached a uh a low around $80,000, and now today, it's backed up to above 92,000. still well below the 100,000 um psychological mark uh which the the asset hit last year. So year to date it's actually still down. Let's take a look at what you think about Bitcoin um and whether or not this fits into a larger pattern. People have been talking about whether or not the four-year cycle is is done uh or that's still even relevant. Of course, as you're aware, the Bitcoin having cycle that happens every four years has been the driving has been one of the driving narratives for price action over the last coming over the last couple of years. People wonder if that's still the case, but I'll let you discuss that and what your own analysis shows. >> Yeah, absolutely, David. I think Bitcoin is a great place to start because I think it reveals a lot about what's going on overall in the markets. And you know at the foundation we've been covering Bitcoin extensively especially my uh colleague Lars Vontan who's on the board and who developed the cycles detection technology that we use. We actually did multiple shows on Bitcoin where we really said, "Look, we're, you know, we're heading into the fifth uh iteration of the of the 200 day nominal cycle and and we basically called the top end Bitcoin right about the time that it topped. doesn't mean it's not going to make new highs, but um the cycles have definitely been doing a good job on Bitcoin. And I think that the other thing about Bitcoin is it's really a canary in the coal mine for what I think is kind of the fundamental issue in markets right now, which is liquidity. So, there's a very excellent analyst, you might want to get him on your show sometime named Michael Howell. I think you'd really enjoy speaking with him. He works with the foundation for the study of cycles also and he has really explained how um markets today are really primarily about refinancing debt. So you know we think of equity markets that it's about the company about the business. We think of crypto that it's about, you know, innovation. And to some degree it is, but really we're living primarily in a world of fiscal dominance right now where the Treasury has to keep selling more debt and the federal government has to keep yields down on that debt because it's getting too expensive to service the debt, etc. So just keeping that money machine, that dollar treasury system uh you know flowing is the big thing that is dominating markets right now. And I'll show you Bitcoin and I'll show you you know what's going on with the Fed and Treasury and how that's influencing Bitcoin and why I think it might be about to change actually. So let me just jump over to my screen here. We'll take a look at Bitcoin to start. So, do you see uh >> I do see your screen? Yeah, >> my screen now. Okay. >> Yep. >> So, this is the cycle analyzer from the foundation for the study of cycles. And here we're looking at um let me just make this bigger for starters right now. Okay. This is the blue line here is the price of Bitcoin. And uh you know, you mentioned of course we made the highs back here around 125,000 in October of 2025. Um and our you know this was basically our prediction at the time that we were going to see a correction in Bitcoin and you know [snorts] right now that uh that correction appears to have be close to having run its course doesn't mean you know can't go down further from here but uh you know I say cycles are a setup okay they tell us which way the wind is blowing they're not the exclusive um uh influence influence in the markets, but we definitely want to know which way the wind is blowing. And right now, Bitcoin has um the cycles have predicted this top. We've had a good correction in Bitcoin. And I it looks to me like we're uh looking for a bottom in Bitcoin right now. And I would say that the reason that I feel there's some fundamentals supporting that idea too and let me just [clears throat] stop sharing for a second here and we can look at some data to back this too. But you know at the last Federal Reserve meeting we heard that uh they were going to stop quantitative tightening right. So that means that the liquidity is getting too tight. Okay, there's not enough liquidity in the system. You can see it in the plumbing of the financial system. You know, the money markets aren't borrowing money from the Fed anymore. They're not getting interest from the Fed. Liquidity has dried up. They need to stop doing the quantitative tightening because the system is too tight right now. And now, you know, I even predicted a few weeks ago when that happened. I think we're going to start to see some form of quantitative easing and it's going to be, you know, under the radar, but the Fed has to get more liquidity into the system. How do they do that? They start buying treasuries. They already said they're going to be no longer just rolling treasuries off their balance sheet. They're going to start buying new treasuries to replace the old treasuries. and they're going to be buying short-term treasuries, Ta bills, right? And the Treasury is selling primarily T bills right now. They're just refinancing their debt with short-term debt, not going out to the longer term because they can't afford it. So all of that suggests to me that Bitcoin is I call it the canary in the coal mine because it's the most sensitive asset other than maybe you know altcoins to liquidity. Okay. And when we see problems with liquidity that's when you know Bitcoin is uh usually the first one the first asset to start uh indicating to us that those pro that those problems are happening. So, the fact that the cycles are bottoming now along with the fact that we're starting to hear noises about rate cuts, about a new Fed chair who's more doubbish than uh you know, than Powell and um uh you know, December rate cuts back on the table solidly even though Powell tried to walk it back at the last session. And that's because you know, the mandate is the system's got to stay alive. The US dollar is too big to fail. The US debt is too big for yields to go up dramatically and and impose huge servicing costs on the debt. So that is all being engineered, you know, to keep that system afloat. >> I want to show you something now, Dr. Smith. We have here uh prediction markets, which I like to use as an indicator of sentiment and positioning from traders. So this is Koshi, one of the biggest prediction markets in the world, largest in the US. And uh it says here, will Bitcoin cross 100K again this year? And you can see the trading volume here, 1.45 million um currently on this particular uh outcome trade. So according to this outcome, it was a it was 49% a couple seconds ago. Now it's 48%. And so around half of the uh traders on this question believe it's going to surpass 100K. said, stepping aside from trading this outcome, how do you as a cycles analyst go about answering that question just for yourself? And then I wanted you to maybe respond to uh how how traders are positioned um given stats like this. Uh you know, I've I haven't really studied the prediction markets, so I am I'm interested in them, but I haven't done a deep dive on them. I don't know really how valid they are. Uh, you know, oneund 1.45 million is not a lot of money in ter when there's, you know, >> uh, trillions in in Bitcoin now. >> Sure. >> Right. So, um, but look, for me, the bottom line is the cycles did a good job calling the top. The cycles are showing that the the pressure from the cycles have run their course. And it's a natural time because cycles are the manifestation of the collective actions of market participants. And the typical time that market participants change their mind on Bitcoin, you know, has has run its course. We're seeing all kinds of negative news right now about Bitcoin. You know, Michael Sailor's micro strategy terrible correction is in the news practically every day, right? So there's a lot of negative sentiment out there around Bitcoin right now. And then the other thing I think is happening is that the Fed is stopping its quantitative tightening. It's going to start to do kind of some stealth quantitative easing in my opinion. And I think that's going to be good for Bitcoin in the long run. So the cycles and the liquidity uh landscape to me suggest that um you know the sky is not about to fall overall in the global financial system and in the US markets. We're going into the most bullish time of the year. The last few weeks of December and the first week of January seasonally are the most bullish time of the year. I don't see, you know, major uh crises erupting in the next 6 to 8 weeks. >> Sure. >> Um so overall that bodess well for liquidity starting to return to the system a bit. >> Yeah. and um for equities and probably Bitcoin and Ethereum getting a rally. >> That's actually what I was wondering. >> All time, you know, new all-time highs. I don't know. Equities probably, >> but we'll see about Bitcoin. >> I was wondering if the cycles are independent of the macroeconomic state. In other words, do cycles repeat themselves over the course of history regardless of how well the economy is doing? So for example, this next uh particular poll, state of the economy at the end of 2025, most traders um are predicting a soft landing by an overwhelming majority, 92%. In some in some uh to some extent, the real market is kind of reflecting that sentiment as well. Um that aside, let's take your sentiment on the economy. So you just you just gave your outlook. How does that factor into Bitcoin Bitcoin cycles or gold cycles which we'll talk about next or does it not matter at all in the bigger picture? >> It absolutely does matter. Basically what I'm saying is that uh you know we're there's a bigger cycle going on which is the debt cycle. Okay. So if you look at interest rates you know out 10 years especially let's say we peaked in like 1981 from 1955 to 1981 26 years >> went up to like 16% started to come down should have bottomed around 2007 but we got the uh stimulus right and the great financial crisis and and zero interest rates kind of like taking the beach ball which should have been rising at that point you know which which is essentially the contrad cycle of you know a little more than 50 years and uh interest rates were held artificially low for another 10 years and then they popped and so now we're in I think the upcycle uh at at an already highly indebted level right so there's a pressure for yields rising and we're in a lot of debt so that combination of high debt with yields going higher creates big problems and that's the problem that [snorts] you know our fiscal engineers are trying to suppress. >> Mhm. Um and uh so we have to look at cycles shorter term cycles in the context of that right bitcoin back in 2012 uh is not the same thing as bitcoin in 2025 right so it's now more subject and you know another thing I wanted to bring up are stable coins so let me show you a couple of charts here briefly so this is a stablecoin market cap Okay, going back to 2018, right, when it was almost nothing and here stable coins rose to, you know,und almost 200 billion and they're climbing steadily up, you know, Trump election just straight up, right? So now we're over 300 billion [clears throat] and we passed the Genius Act, right? which basically says that stable coins have to buy T- bills to um uh for their balance sheet when they take in dollars. So stable coins are actually a way for not just US people but foreigners as well to buy dollars and for those dollars to then fund T bills. So again, it's like we have to keep selling more debt with the treasury. So this is why I think um the current administration is really encouraging stable coins and it also shows how you know the the crypto ecosystem uh is increasingly tied to the traditional financial ecosystem. Now, >> how close is the administration to being insolvent is a question on a lot of people's minds without this issuance of stable coins and the necessity to fund their debt if this continues on and they don't have another solution to offset the deficit. >> Yeah. Are they insolvent? Basically, >> they're not insolvent yet. You know, I think this can go on for a while. Um, here's another chart I wanted to bring up. This is money market funds. Okay, >> money market funds are also rising sharply and they're $7.5 trillion. And guess what money market funds have to do when they take in dollars? They got to buy Treasury bills. So again, it's just all of these mechanisms that are ultimately funding uh the Treasury refinancing its debt. They're doing it at the shorter end of the curve right now rather than going out to the longer end because the rates are too high out there and we're trying to get through the midterms basically without things blowing up. So that's what I'm keeping an eye on. Uh I keep an eye on this is the move index which is the kind of VIX of the bond market. So the volatility of the bond market ever since April has been coming down sharply and it's at, you know, almost historic lows right now. So we're not really seeing a crisis in the in the Treasury market and in the bond market. The volatility is at historic lows and there's a very strong cycle in this market which suggests that we could see that volatility continue to decline. um which would be you know great for the treasury market. So the the less volatile those assets are the more valuable they are as collateral. And I know that's getting into the weeds a little bit but um you know treasuries are a huge basis of the whole um repo system and the collateral that loans are based on. And there really aren't signs of a big crisis in the Treasury market yet. And you know, that looks like it continue could continue um at least into January. And so again, all of this if the bond market and the treasuries are still flowing and there's not a crisis, the system's going to keep going and the Fed's going to ease a little bit. I think that's going to be good for equities and for crypto. Gold uh is we can take a look at gold also. So this is um just GLD here and uh there's 126 day these are trading days so that's about half a year um because there's about 252 trading days in a year um and gold uh the cycle has said that gold should be topping and you know so far it has topped here in October 20th it's definitely hasn't crashed right um but the cycles definitely have slowed the uh ascent in gold and overall you know I know there are some geopolitical things going on with gold. I think when the United States basically uh confiscated Russia's assets as as part of the Ukraine war that that really was a shot across the bow to the global financial dollarbased system. We haven't seen it crack yet. You know, most transactions are all done in dollars. But I do think there is some central bank uh interest you know buying on the part of the bricks and countries who say you know I don't want to be completely uh at the mercy of the federal government if they can confiscate my assets that are um you know in dollars basically. So, I do think that's part of the uh dollar debasement trade and that that's part of what's going on with gold and why we've seen gold have such a incredible rise. Um but uh >> I I understand that we're going to see new highs in gold >> like this year or next year or this cycle. You mean >> it has to correct? or I'm more inclined to believe that we're going to have a correction in the in gold and silver. >> Do your cycles analyses uh indicate to you uh the magnitude of such a correction? I think we discussed this last time and one of the things analysts do is obviously just look at [clears throat] uh what happened in the past. So if you look at 2011 for example um you look at uh 1980 uh you can see how you can see how gold has performed in the past um uh bull cycles and how far they've corrected from their peaks. So for example I'm just looking at my screen right now 2011 uh to all the way down to 2015 which was the trough was around a 42% decline. Um 1980 all the way down to 1982 was another 66% decline. And so it kind of it kind of looks like Bitcoin when you think about it. Uh anyway, I'll let you answer that. >> Cycles do not tell you anything about the size of the trade. Uh that can be one of um the challenges of working with cycles is you look at multiple cycles converging that all look like they're going to be coming down. I mean, if we look at gold here, the top three cycles all suggest gold should be topping here, you know, and you look at that and you're like, "Wow, that's going to be a huge move down in gold, right?" Well, you can't think that way about cycles. You have to look to other things for what the extent of the correction would be. Personally, I don't think we're going to see, you know, a collapse in gold. I think there's too much genuine um uh concern for you know the the federal deficits and concern from other countries that don't want to be completely um you know at the mercy of the US federal government. And so I do think there's central bank buying and uh I just think gold needs a breather and the cycles suggest that uh that we'll probably get it. Um, obviously connected with gold is the fate of the dollar. Um, and uh, the dollar right now, you know, looks to me like, uh, is forming a bottom. I think we could have a little more downside in the dollar. You know, maybe even a new low in the dollar, but I think that'll be the last uh, low if it happens. You can see here, let me make this a little bigger and zoom in a little bit. So this is a proprietary momentum. It's kind of we call it the cyclic RSI. And uh you can see, you know, there's been the momentum is rising in the dollar. Price hasn't really risen as fast as the momentum and we're starting to come down now. And I wouldn't be surprised to see some more downward price action in the dollar, but I think the momentum is going to hold steady. And I think that in 2026, you know, we'll see a uh significant rally in the dollar. And of course that will put pressure on things that are priced in dollars uh for US investors in particular like gold, right? Gold is going to look different in the in different currencies. Um but uh in terms of the dollar, I'm I uh I think that we'll see a sideways to down action in gold over the next 6 to 12 months. Well, can you use the cycles of one asset like gold for example to predict the cycles of another uh asset or security like the dollar? Can you can you make the argument that because gold has topped this cycle that the dollar has bottomed and vice versa given how they've moved inversely to each other in the past? >> Yeah. And you'll often times see the same cycled lengths in different assets, especially highly correlated assets. gold, you know, has been interesting um with the dollar coming down as much as it has, right? That's obviously been a uh a lift for gold priced in dollars. Anyways, um so absolutely I look that's why I look at all kinds of different markets. I try to keep a focused on what I think the big macro picture is and that is what I'm calling fiscal dominance. Not just me, that's a um you know common term out there, but that essentially the managing of the Treasury debt, the federal deficit is the main mandate of the markets right now. And I even think that what we're seeing with, you know, the huge spending levels of [clears throat] all these data centers that the AI and chip companies want to build. I think that is ultimately about keeping treasury yields down. So I know that sounds crazy and you might go like what are you talking about Richard, but let me try to explain it briefly. Okay. So, when you have these long-term debt deals that are being done for these data centers right now, right? Uh for one thing, they sustain the equity prices of those companies, right? Cuz everybody, well, they're they're spending this much money. It's got to be good. And uh but what happens is all of that is new debt that's issued. And it's debt that is a little longer term than the tea bills, right? They're talking about five and 10 year debt. So that is, you know, that's a lot of new debt that is then coming into the debt system and adding more liquidity to the overall debt system. Those yields are pretty good yields. They're not crazy, right? And that actually helps keep treasury yields down because there's more debt out there at reasonable yields that uh that we're always comparing against treasuries, right? And then they actually have to hedge those uh those um those loans by uh participating more in the treasury market. It's all part of this mandate to keep yields down across the yield curve. Maybe we can get to some economic miracle. You know that I I don't think AI is going to transform everything myself. Uh I I sympathize with Trump wanting to reshore manufacturing, but I think it's a heavy lift and I don't see a lot of immediate evidence that that's actually happening. You know, um some of the cycles we've been looking at in manufacturing and other areas of the economy uh look bad, look weak right now. And all of this spending on AI for something that is really unclear what its benefit is going to be um I think is more motivated by the fiscal dominance than a genuine productivity need. Uh just turning back to markets for one minute here. I I wonder if there is an everything bubble right now. If you take a look at how not just gold and bitcoin performed but if you overlay this with stocks for example you can see that first of all barring 2020 which was the pandemic which was a anomaly uh the US stock market has been in uh arguably the longest bull market in American stock market history since 2008 um all the way up till now and u ever since 2020 you've seen that uh bitcoin gold uh stocks real estate they've all kind of moved up together along with the expansion of the money supply. Um I I'm I'm omitting a bunch of other assets as well. Uh bonds have had a bit of a rocky couple years as you know, but u risk assets and safe haven assets aside uh sorry that aside risk assets and gold have performed very well. I wonder my question is Richard I wonder what stage in the everything cycle if you want to call it we're currently in. Uh if you take a look throughout history there's been periods when all assets have kind of been subdued. If you take a look at uh J Japanese markets, for example, after uh the the uh real estate crash that they've experienced in the early '90s, the Nikk hasn't recovered for 20 years. Uh if you take a look at after the do-com bubble crash, for example, the NASDAQ hasn't recovered for 15 years to its previous all-time high. But here we are pushing new all-time highs for pretty much all asset classes that we've discussed so far. What does that mean? It means that there's been an incredible expansion of financial assets because of historically low interest rates. And if you look at that long bull market, it coincides almost exactly with the decline in interest rates, the 10-year rates from, you know, 16 17% down to zero. >> Mhm. Now we're climbing back out of that, but we're essentially, you know, rates are like five, four, four and a half% on the 10 year now, >> right? Far cry from 15. I think they might get there over the next 20 years, but uh um >> I think that the rise in rates has been offset by the stimulus. Okay. So, we've had massive stimulus, the Federal Reserve essentially buying treasuries ever since the great financial crisis, you know, particularly then during COVID everything, right? Expanding the balance sheet and uh that is borrowing a another out ofthe- blue crisis. Okay, you can't justify it anymore. So, maybe there will be another crisis. I'll find myself being very skeptical of that crisis if it should be uh thrust upon us. Um but I think, you know, we're near the end of that. Trump has some uh goodwill to try to make some changes and we'll see what happens. I think Bessant is is a uh um clever, knowledgeable market participant. certainly uh knows a currency crisis, right? >> Working with George Soros. >> So, we've got essentially somebody in the presidency who's quite fasile with the bankruptcy system and we've got a currency trader at the head of the Treasury. That's the situation we're in, right? We're nearing bankruptcy and we're nearing a currency crisis. Um, and uh, I think it can go on a little while longer. You know, I don't know how much longer, but my um, my hunch is mid 2026. So, let's put this all together and conclude the conversation now, Richard. So, back to what you were saying about um, bond issuances and yields getting getting uh, lower because of that. So, here's another stat that may support that. JP Morgan data forecasts a record $1.8 trillion in bond issuances for 2026 driven primarily by AI investments like you mentioned. So if yields get pushed down, wouldn't that be positive for risk assets? Wouldn't that contradict the topping phase of the cycle that we've discussed? >> Yep. That's a big reason why I think that the topping phase could be extended. In the cycles world, we talk about something about right translation and left translation. So kind of when you see the tops come late and when you see the tops come early right. So uh so we've been you know through this whole bull market we've gotten extended tops right and I think that's where we are now. I think that there's a lot of uh firepower. If you just look at where interest rates are today at you know the Federal Reserve right they were as high as 5.5 but now they're at 3.75. you know, we're accustomed to zero. So 3.75, we still think, oh, well, there's room to lower, right? So, um, I don't think there is room to lower, but I think they will be lowered, and I think that will eventually come back and create a spike in inflation. And, um, [clears throat] and I think that will uh be when the bigger crisis starts to unfold. What would this bigger crisis look like hypothetically if it were to unfold? >> Uh it would look like spiking interest rates. Um more burden on the federal uh budget from the federal deficit. Uh I think it would look like populism and angry voters who were you know really expecting more from uh the federal government which I think is a misplaced hope but we go through this [laughter] every four years and uh the day I'll be really hopeful about us is when we stop putting our hope in the federal government to somehow save us. I mean, I think that's a terribly misplaced um uh ideology and you know, false hope. So, I will get excited when I see people coming together and going, you know what, we just got to do this ourselves. >> Final question. >> I don't think we're there yet. >> No, not quite there yet. Okay. Uh well, actually, um just follow up and then final question. any indicators or goalposts that you would observe that would suggest you if we're getting closer to that scenario? >> Yeah, absolutely. Um, I think the bond volatility is an important one to watch. So, let me just put that back up briefly. >> Okay. >> It's called the move index and you can find it on Yahoo Finance. >> Sure. >> Um, so that is the bond volat it's the VIX of the bond market. Okay. So, you want to watch for rising volatility there. So far, you know, ever since April, it's been straight down. So, that's fine. Another one is called high yield option adjusted spreads. This is another uh measure of um you know, of the spreads on the high yield debt and they're quite low right now. Also, back from April where they were pushing 5%, they're down below 3% almost historic lows. certainly lower than the uh the historic average for a long time now. So these are indicators of the volatility of essentially the debt and as long as that volatility is manageable and low that debt can be used as collateral in the system to refinance. It's when the volatility on that starts to rise. See a little bit of a rise here in the spreads, you know, higher bottoms. We'll see what happens. But, uh, that's what I'm really keeping an eye on, you know, because that debt is used as collateral in the refinancing system because, you know, there's a lot of debt that needs to be refinanced right now. You go back to COVID, right, and the 0% interest rates and a lot of people took out five, sixyear loans. The average duration on debt is about 5 and 1/2 years. and we're, you know, from uh from 2020 to now, a lot of that debt needs to be refinanced. So, that's the issue. That's what is trying to be engineered. So far, they're pulling it off. Okay. Volatility on uh bonds and on uh high yield is very low. That's good. If we see that really start to change uh in a big way, that's when I think we'll um start to see some bigger corrections in financial assets. >> Final question before we let you go, Richard, have there been any financial assets you've observed that are completely devoid of cycles analysis? In other words, they're just they move erratically such that cycles don't even apply to them where you can't apply cycles to them. I'm not talking about the odd meme coins that survive for less than 24 hours. I'm talking about mainstream financial assets. >> Um, one of the markets I've had the least success with is natural gas. And I think it um it if you think about what natural gas is and how volatile natural gas is, right? You can't really store it. Uh so it's just not subject to the same uh cycles of, you know, supply and demand that uh that other assets like even oil are. But I think natural gas is a good example of a market that's just very hard to um uh apply cycles to. So I think there are there are some of them out there. Um and cycles work better on longer term than shorter term. I'm still studying can I find intraday cycles for example, [laughter] you know, uh so far I I haven't I haven't uh found the holy grail on that yet. >> Excellent. Thank you very much. Richard, thank you for returning back to the show and uh we'll follow you where, Richard. >> Uh cycles.org, but on our YouTube channel, Cycles TV, it's FSC TV. >> Okay. Uh we'll put the links down below. So, make sure to follow Richard down there. Thank you again. Thank you for uh coming back and we'll speak to you again soon. Take care. >> Thank you, David. It's great to talk with you and your audience. Appreciate it. >> Thanks for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe and follow Richard in the links down below. And don't forget to use my promo code lin l i n when you sign up to koshi. That's kowshi.com/r/lin link down below or scan the QR code here. You'll get $10 on your first $100 deposit.
Market Death Cross Alert: 'Everything Bubble' Pops In 2026, Watch This Indicator | Richard Smith
Summary
Transcript
I think we're going to start to see some form of quantitative easing. It's going to be, you know, under the radar what we're seeing with the huge spending levels, all these data centers. I think that is ultimately about keeping Treasury yields down. All of that is new debt that's issued. And it's debt that is a little longer term than the T bills. They're just refinancing their debt with short-term debt, not going out to the longer term cuz they can't afford it. All of that suggests to me that Bitcoin is I call it the canary in the coal mine because it's the most sensitive asset to liquidity. I'm pleased to welcome back to the show Richard Smith. He is the chairman of the board and executive director of the foundation for the study of cycles. Dr. Smith's uh work covers cycles for a lot of different assets. We'll be focusing on Bitcoin, gold, stocks, and the global debt cycles today. And we'll be finding out what's happening next with these asset classes and what's happening next to the global financial system. Is the global financial system on the brink of collapse? Well, this would impact all financial assets. So, this is the central theme of our discussion with Richard today. This episode is brought to you by and sponsored by Koshi, one of the largest prediction markets in the United States. It is a fully registered platform that lets users trade on realworld events. Anything from political outcomes to economic data. Go to Koshi and use my code LIN in the link down below. Click on uh the link or scan the QR code here and uh new users get $10 when they deposit $100. Welcome back to the show, Richard. Good to see you. >> Thanks for having me, David. Great to see you, too. >> And as always, people can check out our last interview with Richard linked down below where you can revisit his views. And if you haven't already, do uh subscribe to this channel for daily updates. Richard, let's dive right into uh the first asset that I want to cover, which is Bitcoin. Extreme volatility over the last couple of weeks. It's reached a uh a low around $80,000, and now today, it's backed up to above 92,000. still well below the 100,000 um psychological mark uh which the the asset hit last year. So year to date it's actually still down. Let's take a look at what you think about Bitcoin um and whether or not this fits into a larger pattern. People have been talking about whether or not the four-year cycle is is done uh or that's still even relevant. Of course, as you're aware, the Bitcoin having cycle that happens every four years has been the driving has been one of the driving narratives for price action over the last coming over the last couple of years. People wonder if that's still the case, but I'll let you discuss that and what your own analysis shows. >> Yeah, absolutely, David. I think Bitcoin is a great place to start because I think it reveals a lot about what's going on overall in the markets. And you know at the foundation we've been covering Bitcoin extensively especially my uh colleague Lars Vontan who's on the board and who developed the cycles detection technology that we use. We actually did multiple shows on Bitcoin where we really said, "Look, we're, you know, we're heading into the fifth uh iteration of the of the 200 day nominal cycle and and we basically called the top end Bitcoin right about the time that it topped. doesn't mean it's not going to make new highs, but um the cycles have definitely been doing a good job on Bitcoin. And I think that the other thing about Bitcoin is it's really a canary in the coal mine for what I think is kind of the fundamental issue in markets right now, which is liquidity. So, there's a very excellent analyst, you might want to get him on your show sometime named Michael Howell. I think you'd really enjoy speaking with him. He works with the foundation for the study of cycles also and he has really explained how um markets today are really primarily about refinancing debt. So you know we think of equity markets that it's about the company about the business. We think of crypto that it's about, you know, innovation. And to some degree it is, but really we're living primarily in a world of fiscal dominance right now where the Treasury has to keep selling more debt and the federal government has to keep yields down on that debt because it's getting too expensive to service the debt, etc. So just keeping that money machine, that dollar treasury system uh you know flowing is the big thing that is dominating markets right now. And I'll show you Bitcoin and I'll show you you know what's going on with the Fed and Treasury and how that's influencing Bitcoin and why I think it might be about to change actually. So let me just jump over to my screen here. We'll take a look at Bitcoin to start. So, do you see uh >> I do see your screen? Yeah, >> my screen now. Okay. >> Yep. >> So, this is the cycle analyzer from the foundation for the study of cycles. And here we're looking at um let me just make this bigger for starters right now. Okay. This is the blue line here is the price of Bitcoin. And uh you know, you mentioned of course we made the highs back here around 125,000 in October of 2025. Um and our you know this was basically our prediction at the time that we were going to see a correction in Bitcoin and you know [snorts] right now that uh that correction appears to have be close to having run its course doesn't mean you know can't go down further from here but uh you know I say cycles are a setup okay they tell us which way the wind is blowing they're not the exclusive um uh influence influence in the markets, but we definitely want to know which way the wind is blowing. And right now, Bitcoin has um the cycles have predicted this top. We've had a good correction in Bitcoin. And I it looks to me like we're uh looking for a bottom in Bitcoin right now. And I would say that the reason that I feel there's some fundamentals supporting that idea too and let me just [clears throat] stop sharing for a second here and we can look at some data to back this too. But you know at the last Federal Reserve meeting we heard that uh they were going to stop quantitative tightening right. So that means that the liquidity is getting too tight. Okay, there's not enough liquidity in the system. You can see it in the plumbing of the financial system. You know, the money markets aren't borrowing money from the Fed anymore. They're not getting interest from the Fed. Liquidity has dried up. They need to stop doing the quantitative tightening because the system is too tight right now. And now, you know, I even predicted a few weeks ago when that happened. I think we're going to start to see some form of quantitative easing and it's going to be, you know, under the radar, but the Fed has to get more liquidity into the system. How do they do that? They start buying treasuries. They already said they're going to be no longer just rolling treasuries off their balance sheet. They're going to start buying new treasuries to replace the old treasuries. and they're going to be buying short-term treasuries, Ta bills, right? And the Treasury is selling primarily T bills right now. They're just refinancing their debt with short-term debt, not going out to the longer term because they can't afford it. So all of that suggests to me that Bitcoin is I call it the canary in the coal mine because it's the most sensitive asset other than maybe you know altcoins to liquidity. Okay. And when we see problems with liquidity that's when you know Bitcoin is uh usually the first one the first asset to start uh indicating to us that those pro that those problems are happening. So, the fact that the cycles are bottoming now along with the fact that we're starting to hear noises about rate cuts, about a new Fed chair who's more doubbish than uh you know, than Powell and um uh you know, December rate cuts back on the table solidly even though Powell tried to walk it back at the last session. And that's because you know, the mandate is the system's got to stay alive. The US dollar is too big to fail. The US debt is too big for yields to go up dramatically and and impose huge servicing costs on the debt. So that is all being engineered, you know, to keep that system afloat. >> I want to show you something now, Dr. Smith. We have here uh prediction markets, which I like to use as an indicator of sentiment and positioning from traders. So this is Koshi, one of the biggest prediction markets in the world, largest in the US. And uh it says here, will Bitcoin cross 100K again this year? And you can see the trading volume here, 1.45 million um currently on this particular uh outcome trade. So according to this outcome, it was a it was 49% a couple seconds ago. Now it's 48%. And so around half of the uh traders on this question believe it's going to surpass 100K. said, stepping aside from trading this outcome, how do you as a cycles analyst go about answering that question just for yourself? And then I wanted you to maybe respond to uh how how traders are positioned um given stats like this. Uh you know, I've I haven't really studied the prediction markets, so I am I'm interested in them, but I haven't done a deep dive on them. I don't know really how valid they are. Uh, you know, oneund 1.45 million is not a lot of money in ter when there's, you know, >> uh, trillions in in Bitcoin now. >> Sure. >> Right. So, um, but look, for me, the bottom line is the cycles did a good job calling the top. The cycles are showing that the the pressure from the cycles have run their course. And it's a natural time because cycles are the manifestation of the collective actions of market participants. And the typical time that market participants change their mind on Bitcoin, you know, has has run its course. We're seeing all kinds of negative news right now about Bitcoin. You know, Michael Sailor's micro strategy terrible correction is in the news practically every day, right? So there's a lot of negative sentiment out there around Bitcoin right now. And then the other thing I think is happening is that the Fed is stopping its quantitative tightening. It's going to start to do kind of some stealth quantitative easing in my opinion. And I think that's going to be good for Bitcoin in the long run. So the cycles and the liquidity uh landscape to me suggest that um you know the sky is not about to fall overall in the global financial system and in the US markets. We're going into the most bullish time of the year. The last few weeks of December and the first week of January seasonally are the most bullish time of the year. I don't see, you know, major uh crises erupting in the next 6 to 8 weeks. >> Sure. >> Um so overall that bodess well for liquidity starting to return to the system a bit. >> Yeah. and um for equities and probably Bitcoin and Ethereum getting a rally. >> That's actually what I was wondering. >> All time, you know, new all-time highs. I don't know. Equities probably, >> but we'll see about Bitcoin. >> I was wondering if the cycles are independent of the macroeconomic state. In other words, do cycles repeat themselves over the course of history regardless of how well the economy is doing? So for example, this next uh particular poll, state of the economy at the end of 2025, most traders um are predicting a soft landing by an overwhelming majority, 92%. In some in some uh to some extent, the real market is kind of reflecting that sentiment as well. Um that aside, let's take your sentiment on the economy. So you just you just gave your outlook. How does that factor into Bitcoin Bitcoin cycles or gold cycles which we'll talk about next or does it not matter at all in the bigger picture? >> It absolutely does matter. Basically what I'm saying is that uh you know we're there's a bigger cycle going on which is the debt cycle. Okay. So if you look at interest rates you know out 10 years especially let's say we peaked in like 1981 from 1955 to 1981 26 years >> went up to like 16% started to come down should have bottomed around 2007 but we got the uh stimulus right and the great financial crisis and and zero interest rates kind of like taking the beach ball which should have been rising at that point you know which which is essentially the contrad cycle of you know a little more than 50 years and uh interest rates were held artificially low for another 10 years and then they popped and so now we're in I think the upcycle uh at at an already highly indebted level right so there's a pressure for yields rising and we're in a lot of debt so that combination of high debt with yields going higher creates big problems and that's the problem that [snorts] you know our fiscal engineers are trying to suppress. >> Mhm. Um and uh so we have to look at cycles shorter term cycles in the context of that right bitcoin back in 2012 uh is not the same thing as bitcoin in 2025 right so it's now more subject and you know another thing I wanted to bring up are stable coins so let me show you a couple of charts here briefly so this is a stablecoin market cap Okay, going back to 2018, right, when it was almost nothing and here stable coins rose to, you know,und almost 200 billion and they're climbing steadily up, you know, Trump election just straight up, right? So now we're over 300 billion [clears throat] and we passed the Genius Act, right? which basically says that stable coins have to buy T- bills to um uh for their balance sheet when they take in dollars. So stable coins are actually a way for not just US people but foreigners as well to buy dollars and for those dollars to then fund T bills. So again, it's like we have to keep selling more debt with the treasury. So this is why I think um the current administration is really encouraging stable coins and it also shows how you know the the crypto ecosystem uh is increasingly tied to the traditional financial ecosystem. Now, >> how close is the administration to being insolvent is a question on a lot of people's minds without this issuance of stable coins and the necessity to fund their debt if this continues on and they don't have another solution to offset the deficit. >> Yeah. Are they insolvent? Basically, >> they're not insolvent yet. You know, I think this can go on for a while. Um, here's another chart I wanted to bring up. This is money market funds. Okay, >> money market funds are also rising sharply and they're $7.5 trillion. And guess what money market funds have to do when they take in dollars? They got to buy Treasury bills. So again, it's just all of these mechanisms that are ultimately funding uh the Treasury refinancing its debt. They're doing it at the shorter end of the curve right now rather than going out to the longer end because the rates are too high out there and we're trying to get through the midterms basically without things blowing up. So that's what I'm keeping an eye on. Uh I keep an eye on this is the move index which is the kind of VIX of the bond market. So the volatility of the bond market ever since April has been coming down sharply and it's at, you know, almost historic lows right now. So we're not really seeing a crisis in the in the Treasury market and in the bond market. The volatility is at historic lows and there's a very strong cycle in this market which suggests that we could see that volatility continue to decline. um which would be you know great for the treasury market. So the the less volatile those assets are the more valuable they are as collateral. And I know that's getting into the weeds a little bit but um you know treasuries are a huge basis of the whole um repo system and the collateral that loans are based on. And there really aren't signs of a big crisis in the Treasury market yet. And you know, that looks like it continue could continue um at least into January. And so again, all of this if the bond market and the treasuries are still flowing and there's not a crisis, the system's going to keep going and the Fed's going to ease a little bit. I think that's going to be good for equities and for crypto. Gold uh is we can take a look at gold also. So this is um just GLD here and uh there's 126 day these are trading days so that's about half a year um because there's about 252 trading days in a year um and gold uh the cycle has said that gold should be topping and you know so far it has topped here in October 20th it's definitely hasn't crashed right um but the cycles definitely have slowed the uh ascent in gold and overall you know I know there are some geopolitical things going on with gold. I think when the United States basically uh confiscated Russia's assets as as part of the Ukraine war that that really was a shot across the bow to the global financial dollarbased system. We haven't seen it crack yet. You know, most transactions are all done in dollars. But I do think there is some central bank uh interest you know buying on the part of the bricks and countries who say you know I don't want to be completely uh at the mercy of the federal government if they can confiscate my assets that are um you know in dollars basically. So, I do think that's part of the uh dollar debasement trade and that that's part of what's going on with gold and why we've seen gold have such a incredible rise. Um but uh >> I I understand that we're going to see new highs in gold >> like this year or next year or this cycle. You mean >> it has to correct? or I'm more inclined to believe that we're going to have a correction in the in gold and silver. >> Do your cycles analyses uh indicate to you uh the magnitude of such a correction? I think we discussed this last time and one of the things analysts do is obviously just look at [clears throat] uh what happened in the past. So if you look at 2011 for example um you look at uh 1980 uh you can see how you can see how gold has performed in the past um uh bull cycles and how far they've corrected from their peaks. So for example I'm just looking at my screen right now 2011 uh to all the way down to 2015 which was the trough was around a 42% decline. Um 1980 all the way down to 1982 was another 66% decline. And so it kind of it kind of looks like Bitcoin when you think about it. Uh anyway, I'll let you answer that. >> Cycles do not tell you anything about the size of the trade. Uh that can be one of um the challenges of working with cycles is you look at multiple cycles converging that all look like they're going to be coming down. I mean, if we look at gold here, the top three cycles all suggest gold should be topping here, you know, and you look at that and you're like, "Wow, that's going to be a huge move down in gold, right?" Well, you can't think that way about cycles. You have to look to other things for what the extent of the correction would be. Personally, I don't think we're going to see, you know, a collapse in gold. I think there's too much genuine um uh concern for you know the the federal deficits and concern from other countries that don't want to be completely um you know at the mercy of the US federal government. And so I do think there's central bank buying and uh I just think gold needs a breather and the cycles suggest that uh that we'll probably get it. Um, obviously connected with gold is the fate of the dollar. Um, and uh, the dollar right now, you know, looks to me like, uh, is forming a bottom. I think we could have a little more downside in the dollar. You know, maybe even a new low in the dollar, but I think that'll be the last uh, low if it happens. You can see here, let me make this a little bigger and zoom in a little bit. So this is a proprietary momentum. It's kind of we call it the cyclic RSI. And uh you can see, you know, there's been the momentum is rising in the dollar. Price hasn't really risen as fast as the momentum and we're starting to come down now. And I wouldn't be surprised to see some more downward price action in the dollar, but I think the momentum is going to hold steady. And I think that in 2026, you know, we'll see a uh significant rally in the dollar. And of course that will put pressure on things that are priced in dollars uh for US investors in particular like gold, right? Gold is going to look different in the in different currencies. Um but uh in terms of the dollar, I'm I uh I think that we'll see a sideways to down action in gold over the next 6 to 12 months. Well, can you use the cycles of one asset like gold for example to predict the cycles of another uh asset or security like the dollar? Can you can you make the argument that because gold has topped this cycle that the dollar has bottomed and vice versa given how they've moved inversely to each other in the past? >> Yeah. And you'll often times see the same cycled lengths in different assets, especially highly correlated assets. gold, you know, has been interesting um with the dollar coming down as much as it has, right? That's obviously been a uh a lift for gold priced in dollars. Anyways, um so absolutely I look that's why I look at all kinds of different markets. I try to keep a focused on what I think the big macro picture is and that is what I'm calling fiscal dominance. Not just me, that's a um you know common term out there, but that essentially the managing of the Treasury debt, the federal deficit is the main mandate of the markets right now. And I even think that what we're seeing with, you know, the huge spending levels of [clears throat] all these data centers that the AI and chip companies want to build. I think that is ultimately about keeping treasury yields down. So I know that sounds crazy and you might go like what are you talking about Richard, but let me try to explain it briefly. Okay. So, when you have these long-term debt deals that are being done for these data centers right now, right? Uh for one thing, they sustain the equity prices of those companies, right? Cuz everybody, well, they're they're spending this much money. It's got to be good. And uh but what happens is all of that is new debt that's issued. And it's debt that is a little longer term than the tea bills, right? They're talking about five and 10 year debt. So that is, you know, that's a lot of new debt that is then coming into the debt system and adding more liquidity to the overall debt system. Those yields are pretty good yields. They're not crazy, right? And that actually helps keep treasury yields down because there's more debt out there at reasonable yields that uh that we're always comparing against treasuries, right? And then they actually have to hedge those uh those um those loans by uh participating more in the treasury market. It's all part of this mandate to keep yields down across the yield curve. Maybe we can get to some economic miracle. You know that I I don't think AI is going to transform everything myself. Uh I I sympathize with Trump wanting to reshore manufacturing, but I think it's a heavy lift and I don't see a lot of immediate evidence that that's actually happening. You know, um some of the cycles we've been looking at in manufacturing and other areas of the economy uh look bad, look weak right now. And all of this spending on AI for something that is really unclear what its benefit is going to be um I think is more motivated by the fiscal dominance than a genuine productivity need. Uh just turning back to markets for one minute here. I I wonder if there is an everything bubble right now. If you take a look at how not just gold and bitcoin performed but if you overlay this with stocks for example you can see that first of all barring 2020 which was the pandemic which was a anomaly uh the US stock market has been in uh arguably the longest bull market in American stock market history since 2008 um all the way up till now and u ever since 2020 you've seen that uh bitcoin gold uh stocks real estate they've all kind of moved up together along with the expansion of the money supply. Um I I'm I'm omitting a bunch of other assets as well. Uh bonds have had a bit of a rocky couple years as you know, but u risk assets and safe haven assets aside uh sorry that aside risk assets and gold have performed very well. I wonder my question is Richard I wonder what stage in the everything cycle if you want to call it we're currently in. Uh if you take a look throughout history there's been periods when all assets have kind of been subdued. If you take a look at uh J Japanese markets, for example, after uh the the uh real estate crash that they've experienced in the early '90s, the Nikk hasn't recovered for 20 years. Uh if you take a look at after the do-com bubble crash, for example, the NASDAQ hasn't recovered for 15 years to its previous all-time high. But here we are pushing new all-time highs for pretty much all asset classes that we've discussed so far. What does that mean? It means that there's been an incredible expansion of financial assets because of historically low interest rates. And if you look at that long bull market, it coincides almost exactly with the decline in interest rates, the 10-year rates from, you know, 16 17% down to zero. >> Mhm. Now we're climbing back out of that, but we're essentially, you know, rates are like five, four, four and a half% on the 10 year now, >> right? Far cry from 15. I think they might get there over the next 20 years, but uh um >> I think that the rise in rates has been offset by the stimulus. Okay. So, we've had massive stimulus, the Federal Reserve essentially buying treasuries ever since the great financial crisis, you know, particularly then during COVID everything, right? Expanding the balance sheet and uh that is borrowing a another out ofthe- blue crisis. Okay, you can't justify it anymore. So, maybe there will be another crisis. I'll find myself being very skeptical of that crisis if it should be uh thrust upon us. Um but I think, you know, we're near the end of that. Trump has some uh goodwill to try to make some changes and we'll see what happens. I think Bessant is is a uh um clever, knowledgeable market participant. certainly uh knows a currency crisis, right? >> Working with George Soros. >> So, we've got essentially somebody in the presidency who's quite fasile with the bankruptcy system and we've got a currency trader at the head of the Treasury. That's the situation we're in, right? We're nearing bankruptcy and we're nearing a currency crisis. Um, and uh, I think it can go on a little while longer. You know, I don't know how much longer, but my um, my hunch is mid 2026. So, let's put this all together and conclude the conversation now, Richard. So, back to what you were saying about um, bond issuances and yields getting getting uh, lower because of that. So, here's another stat that may support that. JP Morgan data forecasts a record $1.8 trillion in bond issuances for 2026 driven primarily by AI investments like you mentioned. So if yields get pushed down, wouldn't that be positive for risk assets? Wouldn't that contradict the topping phase of the cycle that we've discussed? >> Yep. That's a big reason why I think that the topping phase could be extended. In the cycles world, we talk about something about right translation and left translation. So kind of when you see the tops come late and when you see the tops come early right. So uh so we've been you know through this whole bull market we've gotten extended tops right and I think that's where we are now. I think that there's a lot of uh firepower. If you just look at where interest rates are today at you know the Federal Reserve right they were as high as 5.5 but now they're at 3.75. you know, we're accustomed to zero. So 3.75, we still think, oh, well, there's room to lower, right? So, um, I don't think there is room to lower, but I think they will be lowered, and I think that will eventually come back and create a spike in inflation. And, um, [clears throat] and I think that will uh be when the bigger crisis starts to unfold. What would this bigger crisis look like hypothetically if it were to unfold? >> Uh it would look like spiking interest rates. Um more burden on the federal uh budget from the federal deficit. Uh I think it would look like populism and angry voters who were you know really expecting more from uh the federal government which I think is a misplaced hope but we go through this [laughter] every four years and uh the day I'll be really hopeful about us is when we stop putting our hope in the federal government to somehow save us. I mean, I think that's a terribly misplaced um uh ideology and you know, false hope. So, I will get excited when I see people coming together and going, you know what, we just got to do this ourselves. >> Final question. >> I don't think we're there yet. >> No, not quite there yet. Okay. Uh well, actually, um just follow up and then final question. any indicators or goalposts that you would observe that would suggest you if we're getting closer to that scenario? >> Yeah, absolutely. Um, I think the bond volatility is an important one to watch. So, let me just put that back up briefly. >> Okay. >> It's called the move index and you can find it on Yahoo Finance. >> Sure. >> Um, so that is the bond volat it's the VIX of the bond market. Okay. So, you want to watch for rising volatility there. So far, you know, ever since April, it's been straight down. So, that's fine. Another one is called high yield option adjusted spreads. This is another uh measure of um you know, of the spreads on the high yield debt and they're quite low right now. Also, back from April where they were pushing 5%, they're down below 3% almost historic lows. certainly lower than the uh the historic average for a long time now. So these are indicators of the volatility of essentially the debt and as long as that volatility is manageable and low that debt can be used as collateral in the system to refinance. It's when the volatility on that starts to rise. See a little bit of a rise here in the spreads, you know, higher bottoms. We'll see what happens. But, uh, that's what I'm really keeping an eye on, you know, because that debt is used as collateral in the refinancing system because, you know, there's a lot of debt that needs to be refinanced right now. You go back to COVID, right, and the 0% interest rates and a lot of people took out five, sixyear loans. The average duration on debt is about 5 and 1/2 years. and we're, you know, from uh from 2020 to now, a lot of that debt needs to be refinanced. So, that's the issue. That's what is trying to be engineered. So far, they're pulling it off. Okay. Volatility on uh bonds and on uh high yield is very low. That's good. If we see that really start to change uh in a big way, that's when I think we'll um start to see some bigger corrections in financial assets. >> Final question before we let you go, Richard, have there been any financial assets you've observed that are completely devoid of cycles analysis? In other words, they're just they move erratically such that cycles don't even apply to them where you can't apply cycles to them. I'm not talking about the odd meme coins that survive for less than 24 hours. I'm talking about mainstream financial assets. >> Um, one of the markets I've had the least success with is natural gas. And I think it um it if you think about what natural gas is and how volatile natural gas is, right? You can't really store it. Uh so it's just not subject to the same uh cycles of, you know, supply and demand that uh that other assets like even oil are. But I think natural gas is a good example of a market that's just very hard to um uh apply cycles to. So I think there are there are some of them out there. Um and cycles work better on longer term than shorter term. I'm still studying can I find intraday cycles for example, [laughter] you know, uh so far I I haven't I haven't uh found the holy grail on that yet. >> Excellent. Thank you very much. Richard, thank you for returning back to the show and uh we'll follow you where, Richard. >> Uh cycles.org, but on our YouTube channel, Cycles TV, it's FSC TV. >> Okay. Uh we'll put the links down below. So, make sure to follow Richard down there. Thank you again. Thank you for uh coming back and we'll speak to you again soon. Take care. >> Thank you, David. It's great to talk with you and your audience. Appreciate it. >> Thanks for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe and follow Richard in the links down below. And don't forget to use my promo code lin l i n when you sign up to koshi. That's kowshi.com/r/lin link down below or scan the QR code here. 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