Market Hasn’t Even Unravelled Yet: The Real Crash About To Drop | Chris Vermeulen
Summary
Market Outlook: Risk-off is already here, with a short-term downtrend in equities and a potential head-and-shoulders top forming on the S&P 500; the guest has moved to cash awaiting clearer signals.
Mega Cap Tech: Crowding and froth in leaders like Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Apple, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft suggest bigger corrections ahead; not a buy-the-dip for long-term investors.
Bitcoin: Breaking down from a broadening pattern with heavy selling; a bounce is possible, but a move toward 60–50k is likely if stocks weaken, and bottom-picking is discouraged.
Gold: Bull flags point to upside targets of roughly $4,600 then $5,100–$5,200; expects a sharp surge if equities sell off, followed by an eventual exit after a blow-off move.
Precious Metals: Silver, gold, and miners could benefit from equity outflows and central bank buying, but a surging USD would pressure the space.
US Dollar: DXY shows a base with potential to 110–116/121; the guest prefers holding USD cash and highlights dollar strength as a core defensive play.
US Treasuries: Long-duration bonds (e.g., TLT) may be bottoming; weaker growth and rate cuts could lift prices, with risk-off days already showing a bid in Treasuries.
Transcript
We moved to cash a couple weeks ago. We moved to the sidelines because the market was saying it didn't know what it's doing. And now we're we're seeing it with our tools, our indicators that the emotions are all over the place. It is going to be an unbelievable time. I'm going to be like, "Guys, just throw darts. Buy whatever the hell you want. You could be really >> You sound like a value investor, Chris. >> Well, you have to change your strategy with the market environment." Like right now there I don't believe there's very good value anywhere. >> The fear of a market rotation is now here. It's very real. It's very visceral on everybody's minds. What is next with the markets? We're already down a lot from the all-time highs on a lot of securities and a lot of risk assets. And uh Christopher Mullen, our next guest, chief market strategist at the technical traders.com, has been warning us about what is currently happening now and he has warnings for what may happen into the future as well. Welcome back to the show, Chris. Good to see you. >> Yeah, thanks for having me, David. Always a pleasure. this um downturn or rotation that we've been talking about quite some for quite some time. People should realize it's present tense. It's already happened. I saw somebody put together this very useful visual um a very easy to understand quick to glance visual of what is happening right now in the markets and it's very clear that risk off is no longer a future projection. It's already here. Apple, Google, S&P, even gold, Amazon, Microsoft, the list goes on. risk assets are down from their all-time highs. It's important to note that yeah, gold's down 7% from their all-time highs, but you can't really call this a bare market yet. I'm just I'm not using the word bare market. I haven't said this is a bare market. I've just said the correction that people have been warning about that's here. And I like to discuss what is correcting fairly, what is not correcting fairly today. And this important question that a commenter has, so what are we buying? Which is a good follow-up question to this graphic. The assumption I think is we should be buying on this big correction or dip, whatever you want to call it. Depending on what you're looking at, it could be a complete wipe out or crash. Look at the meme coins. Look at the more risky uh sectors of the crypto space. So, should we even be buying this dip? That's a separate question al together. But these are the themes of our conversation today. What do you make of this graphic, Chris? >> Yeah. Well, it it clearly shows the speculative um plays are down the most. Obviously, a lot of lot of coins in there and it's definitely showing money fleas very quickly when it gets nervous. And usually the like the lower half there that are down the most, those are the ones that are going to get hit the quickest, the hardest. Um, when you go and you look at these other stocks, like when you look at the the this the upper half from Meta really up, those are kind of like hardcore assets that the majority of people hold. And I I think this is what we've seen is this pullback is really I think it's just the froth. I I still think we're going to see the markets have a much much deeper correction when we when they do start a big correction. And I think this is really just a little bit of froth coming off the top. I think uh I don't think this is a buy the dip uh play. Like I think uh we need to be aware that yes, the markets may want to bounce and have another push higher and you can get long again, but overall I wouldn't be I wouldn't look to buy this as like a long-term play. I think the markets are going to have a much bigger correction at some point. And you know, Nvidia down 16% to me really is nothing because it is such a crowded um play. Everybody's in it. Everybody watches it and trades it. And it's a it's a there's a lot of emotional buying in there. And when that emotional buying unravels when things do start to collapse, like a 15% pullback, 20% in Tesla and Nvidia, that's normal for that stock, for those stocks. They're volatile stocks. Yeah, they're huge, but they have that kind of volatility. And the people who are piling in to those are normal to look at the the trades they'd be putting on below. A lot of them things that move 40 50 60% all the time. So um I think there's a lot more downside eventually when this market unravels and I don't think this is kind of like the buy the dip mentality. I think we'll see a much bigger correction in the Tesla and up the Meta and up kind of stocks at some point down the road here. When you say we're anticipating a market correction, which market are you talking about? Are you talking about the S&P here? Uh I'm assuming you're referring to Yeah. >> Yeah. The the equities market. I think the equities market will have a bigger correction. >> Well, let's turn to a chart of the S&P right now. And uh we're speaking today on Monday the 24th of November, and it's a big update. It's a big bounce for both both uh stocks and um and Bitcoin. Um well, Bitcoin is up half a percent. Uh it seems like every time we sell below a certain threshold there's a bounce. Is there a major floor somewhere around uh this chart that you can talk about? >> Yeah, there there's definitely some interesting price levels we could look at. So from a technical standpoint, the the the trend of the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are down. They're in a short-term downtrend uh right now. And so all all we're having at this point is a bounce within a downtrend. Now, what's interesting is we've been going slloshing back and forth with this emotional roller coaster. So, on on the 30-inut chart on the left here, you and I have covered this uh several times. So, this is this red indicator is known as our our FOMO indicator. That tells us when people just pile into the stock market. They feel like they're being left behind. They have to buy now because the bottom is in. And so, that's what we saw on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ last week. Everybody piled in at the open and then suddenly this was on the back of Nvidia news and then later in that day we had unemployment news uh which created which took it the other way. So everybody wanted in the stock market a couple days ago. Later that session we had three uh waves of panic selling that created these three big pushes to the downside. And so these these indicators that I have drawn here when they cross above these blue lines they are usually extreme pivot highs and lows. And so we can identify the market. So, it's going from everybody wanting in to to later in the day, nobody wants in anymore. They're they're bailing out. And on Friday, we ended up closing with the FOMO indicator above this blue line. And when we close above the blue line on a Friday, all the emotional traders feel like who didn't get in feel like they over the whole weekend, they're like, I need to get in. I need to get in. They just kind of ruminate on like, I got to get into this stock market. And so that's why we've got this gap up and we're seeing this followth through buying today is like this kind of feeding frenzy. And it was interesting because it was just large caps moving the markets early this morning as you and I recording this on the 24th. And now it's kind of turned into a kind of a bit of more of a broad market rally. We're seeing the micro caps and the small caps participate. And and typically when everybody gets into the more speculative plays, that's actually a little bit of a contrarian sign. Now everybody's starting to get excited about the stock market again and we're in a downtrend and usually we're going to probably see some more selling. So I don't remember what your original question was, but this market right now is very emotional and you know we're coming down. We're we're testing this very critical support level on the chart right now. We had it fall back a couple months ago. It's bounced back up. It's now come back down to this significant level. And now the big question is how is it going to trade sideways uh on this chart? Kind of really messed up that chart, but in the in the big picture here, we could be putting in a shoulder, a head, and another shoulder. And a head and shoulders pattern is a very powerful topping pattern. And when you break the line that connects the two shoulders, that's when you get a very big precipitous fall. Usually the height of uh from the top of the head to the uh to the to the neckline gives us the downside target of where it could go. So we could see the S&P 500 potentially if we break down over the next month or so down to like you know $614 uh per um per share which is about a 7 8% correction from where we are. So we really just need to sit back. We moved to cash a couple weeks ago. We moved to the sidelines because the market was saying it didn't know what it's doing. And now we're we're seeing it with our tools, our indicators that the emotions are all over the place. Nobody knows where it's going. And that's why we step aside. We don't need to get involved in this scenario. But if you notice the moving averages, David, the 50-day starting to slope down. The the 20day is clearly sloping down. The 5day moving average is now below the 50-day. So, the momentum that has always kind of been up and to the right, it looks like it's actually coming to an end for a significant um correction. And so, we could be very close to something bigger than just this buy this little dip and you're good, you know, a week or two from now. I think it could be you buy this dip and you might be underwater for a long time. >> Before we continue with the video, let's talk about a growing issue, a very important issue. Online privacy. Your personal data isn't just sitting in your email or phone. It's being scraped, sold, and passed around by data broker sites every single day, and you may not even know it. Today's sponsor, Delete Me, helps you fight back. They monitor hundreds of broker sites, scan for your exposed personal data, and remove it before it can be used against you. You also get regular privacy reports that show where your data was found and what's been taken down. In fact, in one recent check, they reviewed over 340 plus listings to see if any data broker had my personal information on my report. That's how much is out there. And they keep scanning every single week. Don't wait. Go to joindeme.com/david and use the code davidin for 20% off of all US plans or scan the QR code here on the screen right now. Take control of your privacy before somebody else does. Chris, I want to come back to the markets just a bit, but I want to bring your attention to something that I don't think you and I have ever talked about, at least not much in detail. Let me allow me to share my screen for just a minute here. This is a prediction market. There are several of them out there. I just I just picked Koshi, but um what this does is it allows people to for those people not aware of what prediction markets are. It allows people to bet exactly on events themselves rather than buying the markets. It's people some people call it gambling. Um but technically that's what it is. But then again, you could argue the stock market is gambling as well. So, it's really just a matter of perspective. Anyway, what it does is it allows you to bet on events such as Fed decision in December, number of rate cuts, so on and so forth. I just picked the economics columns. You can also do culture, sports. Let's focus on economics for the sake of our discussion. The point I'm trying to raise is these prediction markets have been called out for being scarily accurate in actually predicting actual results, especially the closer you get towards the actual event themselves. Uh, I have several questions about this. First of all, do you use this at all? >> Not for your own personal trading, but just as a as an indicator. >> No, I've never I've never I'll check it out, but I know I haven't followed it. Didn't know it existed. So, but there are definitely ways to bet on everything in this world. [laughter] >> I mean, this is essentially the same thing as an options market or let's say the CME Fed watch tool. It's just people, real market participants, betting on certain events or trading on certain events or placing positions on future events. So you got the commitment of traders reports for example. You've got put call spreads. Uh all these are indicators for positioning. This is another indicator of positioning for example. So let's just cuz I'm bringing this up because it's getting more and more popular. Poly Market's another one that's huge and people Poly Market has been um called out several times in the media, mainstream media that is for having actually had um pretty much perfect records for predicting um political elections. And so now it's drawing big money and big attention. Let's just assume that the odds of the market, cuz the market's never wrong in this case, are perfect. And so if something is overwhelmingly above 60%, 70%, you know, that's going to happen. So as you so if you as a trader look at a number of indicators like betting markets or options positioning and it all points to one certain thing, do you trade against it or go with it? >> Um well I I would trade with the overall price, right? I won't I'm I'm not going to bet my money on what a bunch of people think is going to happen. That's I'm a technical trader. Give me logic, not not um that type of stuff. But obviously if if it's going to play out in these odds, why wouldn't you want to go in that direction? I mean, I don't I I do my own analysis. I'd rather I'd rather make money and lose money on my own decisions and my own strategies than blindly follow other people and just go with, you know, a bunch of people betting on something. So, um, you're right. If it is accurate though, it gives you definitely some insight. It would definitely give you peace of mind. give you some mental prepare preparedness for what's going to happen to be like, okay, well, if that does happen and I'm in this position, uh how could that affect me and how quickly, you know, could could something backfire or work in my favor? So, I haven't looked into it enough, but I definitely prefer following price in my own analysis than uh blindly following like another website where where people bet on stuff. It's just not it's just not my thing. It's to me it's out of control. >> Can you take a step back and just explain the philosophy here? How does the price action in itself, which is really just history when you think about it, how does price action so far tell you what may happen in the future? >> Well, generally the the kind of analysis is a trend is more likely to continue than it is to end because it's it's the thought process of a group of people. They're all thinking and feeling the same things. They're putting their money in the same in that direction. Um, price action is really telling us what people are thinking and feeling and and obviously what they're doing with their money. And so you really that's the main driver of stock pricing. It's not fundamental data. It's not the government. It's not it's none of that stuff. You can have the strongest companies in the world and still see a stock price get cut in half or or fall 70% all because there's a lot of fear in the overall market and selling. So the charts tell us what people think and truly feel about a particular stock at any given time and you're better just follow price than than anything else. I'm not sure if that answers your question, but >> No, it does. >> Um I'm also curious to how you as a technician integrate price action which again is a historical record uh versus another technical indicator. Basically a combination of technical indicators. Um how do you use that? >> Yeah, I use a I use several different indicators. So I I talk in my book technical trading mastery about the inner market analysis and I take like a 3D view of the market. Now most people just look at a chart. Well, if you're most technical traders look at just a chart and the price action they throw a bunch of price indicators on it. There's millions of indicators out there. The thing is they're all using really most of them the same thing. Meaning they're all using price action. So what how I look at the market is I look at price. So price action is is is important. I also like to look at time. So I put in time cycles because people have go through regular cycles, the mind process, the moons, earnings, all of that stuff. All this stuff plays into these cycles, these things that happen. And then I look into sentiment, which is where's money flowing between various assets and things like that. And when you when you look at price, uh, time and like feelings, you get this really good three-dimensional view of the market of being like, okay, this is where people are. this is what they're thinking and doing and this is where money is flowing. And so when you look at it from that perspective, you get a lot more guidance into how strong a move is. Is this just a, for example, when a new trend starts, it might just be a bounce or it could be the start of a new trend. Well, by looking at these three different layers and things at play, we can be like, okay, this is not a bounce anymore. This is actually a full-on trend. There's people committing to it. There's big money flows. they're in the right psychology, the right mindset to to move into this. And so I don't use just price action. There's there's quite a bit more that goes into it in order to get a gauge of what's going on because, you know, just tech technical analysis on its own, just trading pure price charts isn't isn't the best tool. You still need to like it's kind of like a game of poker playing the markets. And when you can get a gauge of where their money's flowing, you kind of see what their hand is and you you know if they're on tilt or not. And those little indicators I was showing you earlier with the panic selling and the panic uh the buying, those are that's when traders are on tilt and they're making bad decisions because they're emotional. And so those give us those edges to tell us when there's going to be a little bit of a pullback, when there's going to be a b a bounce. Uh so you don't want to just follow price. You don't want to just follow one thing. You kind of need multiple layers to this market to get a real feel for it. >> Well, let's go back to the charts. Uh by the way, people can learn more from Chris and his trading methods. Link down below. technicalraders.com. Uh let's took it let's take a look now at Bitcoin, please, Chris. Bitcoin is literally breaking down and has been for several weeks. There's a there's been a $400 billion crypto wipeout over the last week and uh some estimates place that number even higher, although 400 billion is a mainstream news quoted number. Let's talk about Bitcoin. Uh what's your reaction to that chart that you're seeing there? Those big red bars. >> Yeah, there's there's a lot of there's a lot of panic selling going on. Uh it's definitely pulling back into a pretty critical support zone. And you know when you look when you look at this price action, I think you and I had talked about this a while ago. I wasn't a fan of Bitcoin because it has this this broadening formation of series of higher highs, lower lows. It's it's meaning there's more volatility. It's increasing in risk and volatility on every wave. Every time it makes a new high, it gets rejected. It becomes a fake out. And then it makes a lower low and then it finds a bottom and rallies. And so it's a terrible pattern, very difficult to trade. It's not worth trading and they usually resolve to the downside. Eventually, it's just showing instability. It's in between buyers and sellers and and we ended up finding it breaking to the downside and and it's picked up speed. You can see the volume. There's a ton of selling going on. A lot of fear in the space and it has dropped right down into that kind of around the $80,000 per Bitcoin mark, which is kind of in this blue box. This is where a significant breakout took place. back in 2024. It's a major bottom that we found earlier this year. And so it's just dipped down into that level where there will be a bunch of people saying, "Hey, if it drops into this range, I'm going to buy some more." People who bought it back in March and April. There'll also just be other traders who look at and say, "Well, if it falls here, this is a previous support level. I'm going to buy it." So, right now, we're just having a technical bounce. It's in a downtrend. There's a lot of selling and it's just a bunch of buyers who are trying to pick a bottom here and they're buying it at a support level. So, it's it's getting a little bit of a bounce. The big question with Bitcoin is is what is going to happen next. And that's that's where we need to figure out is it just going to trade sideways and really flounder and then eventually kind of break down and and go for another swan dive or is it going to have a fairly decent bounce and is it going to play out for a couple months? I think it's going to follow the stock market. I think if the stock market struggles here and rolls over, Bitcoin is going to break down and we'll probably be headed down to the 60 or or $50 $50,000 mark very quickly. But if the stock market does bounce, I do think we could see Bitcoin bounce. Um I wouldn't trade it for the bounce. So right now the trend is down. You don't want to try and pick a bottom. So I wouldn't trade the bounce. I'd be more inclined to potentially look to buy an inverse or play the downside if it does bounce up and starts to roll over. I would look for some type of pullback and kind of go from there or wait for it to start to break down through this level again and then potentially jump on board because this is an emotional asset, very emotional asset. And once it starts to break a very critical level, everyone starts to bail out on the trade very quickly and uh and it'll sell off. It'll be like a landslide just like this last one. It'll be a string of red bars with huge volume. And there's enough momentum and enough people that panic in Bitcoin at the same time that it'll create a big move. They there's the same waves in Bitcoin to the upside and the downside. When it breaks out and starts to run, they all jump on and they drive the price up. When it breaks down, they all panic and they bail out. And so there's very good opportunity in Bitcoin because of that. And we've traded it a few times recently um because of these strong moves. And there might be a really nice breakdown here in in the next month or so. >> I I kind of understand why you're saying don't pick a bottom. First of all, nobody can really pick bottoms perfectly, it's dangerous. And second, um like you just said, if it goes below a certain point and more selling could occur and follow. But if some trader were to say to you, Chris, well, without assigning a bottom or at least being prepared for some sort of floor, I don't know an entry point and I don't know when to get back in. How would you respond to that? Uh, I guess it depends on that person's hurt. Are they trying to swing trade it or are they looking to buy it long term, right? Um, I think if you got the long-term mentality, like the buy and hold, like I it doesn't matter what price you buy it. Just you're going to ride a hell of a roller coaster ride. So, you just you can buy it anywhere and just average in as you get more money. If you love it, you just buy more. But, if you're a short-term trader, I'd be like, well, this looks like it's a spot for a bounce. I think you could get a bounce up to 95,000, which is, you know, $7,000 move from here. So, you're looking at 6 7 8% potential gain. Um, this this would be a spot to try, but if it breaks those lows, I mean, I'd be getting out because it could be down at 60 or 55,000 very quickly. >> So, I'm going to share my screen one for a minute here, Chris. And this is my attempt at kind of guessing where the uh psychological not the floor so much, but the psychological um support level may be. And I'm just looking at the pre previous two bull cycles here. In 2021, um, double top and then 2022 happened. It bottomed around 1617,000 and it stayed there for a good number of months before slowly inching back up. $17,000 was the top of the last cycle. And and right now if you're starting to if you see what h what what's happening here it looks like it's about to approach the top of the last cycle as well which is 65 60 69,000 as well. So if one were to say well just based on the previous two cycles 70,000 might look like a a good support level. Um can you validate that or or refute that? Yeah, like the the seven the 70,000 could be good. I mean, I can um let me just see if I can pull my chart up. I just had a problem with my monitor, but um if you take a look >> Yeah, I can see your screen. >> Yeah, I think there's some weird blue box that's stuck across the top. You might see it. I'm not sure. But anyway, if we look at the price action here, this is the weekly chart of Bitcoin going back to 2019. >> Uh your $70,000 mark would be good. I mean, this you can see here there's a a a big uh cup and there was a handle formation. This was actually a trade that we did. We actually got in as it was starting to break out and we played it and got out right up here at 10875, right up near the high for one trade there. But overall, I think we could come back down to the 70,000 mark. It'll want to settle into this. It'll be a zone, right? There's there's I don't like to look at things as like specific pricing. I think it'll be kind of this whole this whole blue box kind of the depth of this bull flag and these kind of highs. It'll it'll settle down into this area. So 70 is definitely at the upper end, but usually it wants to like push a little deeper. Um and there's going to be this big break of this pivot low that was over here around 74. And that is a very significant level. The break of 74 is equivalent to this break right here. So if it was to break, it's going to go out of favor in a big way. So, if this if this level is broken, I think we're going to see it, you know, really tumble and start to to to run a whole lot lower and take a lot of time to recover. If you notice this one here, there was a high and then a slightly higher high and then it came down and then it put in this this bounce, this bare flag before it rolled over and broke down. Well, that's exactly what I'm trying to explain over here is we're going to get some type of bounce before it rolls over and then goes, you know, to to repeat this scenario. So, that's what I think is going to happen. I think you called it. It's very similar to this previous move in 2021 and uh I think it could repeat again and Bitcoin could be um much much lower uh you know, 6 eight months from now maybe. Well, let's see uh let's see uh if uh if if I'm right. Uh I always joke to my friends that I'm a contra indicator. I recently there's only two times I added to my Bitcoin positions personally in my life. One was at uh near the top in the last cycle and uh I just bought some more at 100,000. So uh comment below if you like me to disclose whenever I buy and then you can short. I'm kidding. Um [laughter] Chris, let's uh let's move on to gold and then we'll round up and get your um market outlook overall and your preferred assets. But uh gold seems to be uh consolidating. Let's hear your thoughts on gold. >> Yeah, I I like gold. It's got a series of of bull flags kind of working its way up and to the right. It's it got a little frothy about a month and a half ago. Everybody was piling in who was open to the concept of moving into metals. And so it it's had a pullback and a pause. Overall, this is a a very strong chart pattern. I think we've seen gold have these series of it rallies, it pauses, it stair steps its way up. These are called bull flags, which are very strong chart patterns. And the next move from here is actually pointing to, you know, 50 uh 51 $5200 per ounce for gold. So, we can pull that down. I wish I get this blue box out of the way, but you can see we're going about, you know, first level here is going to be the 46 $4,700 for gold and then I think we could go up here. And I do think I mean I I'm always thinking the market is on the verge of a rollover and a big sell-off. But the things are aligning more and soon more more and more now that I think at any point here we could see a very explosive move a very quick move very similar to this one here maybe even more powerful that we could have that same move back up to this 51 5200 and I think if that is the case I think the stock market will be selling off I think we'll be seeing money coming out of stocks and then it's going to be looking for money it's looking for return it's going to move into the precious metals space for one last big push so I think there's a lot of upside in in gold, silver, uh pre precious metals and miners, uh once once it finally hooks up and gets a bid. But I do think the stock market kind of wants to is going to want to start to sell off first. I think we need to see money coming from somewhere to go into the metal space. And as we know, the stock market is way bigger than the gold market. So when the stock market does have a mass mass exodus and people are liquidating their stocks, there is going to be a ton of capital that's going to want to push and rush into the gold sector and drive it, I think, up very quickly. And this is what unfolded in 2027 as well. So if this repeats or rhymes again, it is going to mean that if stocks start to sell off, it means I think the top is in. And then if gold has shoots up to this 52 level, I'd be prepared to to exit the precious metal space because I do think it will actually put in a significant high and uh and then reverse and sell off with the markets temporarily for for quite a while, for a few months or 6 or 12 months. >> Well, why does something need to sell off? Can't it just I mean, can't it just stay sideways for quite some time? I know the answer is yes, it could theoretically do anything, but you're citing a higher probability to a selloff. Why is that? >> Uh only because if if we do go into a recession and the stock market is selling and home prices are falling, all of that is generally going to start to happen around the same time. People get scared. People start to lose their jobs. They start to um see all their value, all their wealth just vaporizing literally week after week. And any little down tick in gold or anything, it is just enough for them to be like, I need to get out. The thing is when people get scared, the reality is most people don't know a lot about the financial markets. They don't understand how they move and why they move and and how to track them and how to know when to own or when not to own something. So when everything they own is dropping in value very quickly. It's very easy to get overwhelmed, get scared, and be like, "Just sell everything. Just just liquidate. I just want to move to cash. I'm tired of losing money. Everything I buy is going down." And they just they group all their assets into one thing and they just liquidate. And we see that we see precious metals. We see things that actually are good investments just get pulled down with the liquidation. It's margin calls. It's fear selling. And so you're right, gold could hold up. There is the a perfect storm brewing for gold to hold up or maybe even keep going higher as the stock market uh maybe goes into a huge reset. And um and maybe the the precious metal space never looks back. That's always a case, but I kind of always take the markets one leg at a time, one of these bull flag patterns at a time. I navigate it. I play it. And um I don't look too far into the future because I know I'm not I'm not a buy and hold type of person. I want to play each leg, control and manage my risk and my positions and just, you know, walk them walk up with the markets or walk down with the markets holding the right assets. So typically just when there's mass selling and and global fear, everything kind of gets sold off. And this time could be different cuz we got, you know, central banks loading up with precious metals. You know, we haven't seen this type of I don't think this buying before. So, you know, there there could be a case that precious metals hold up or keep on going and they they they actually just keep going higher as the stock market melts down. But um I mean, we don't know, right? So, you have to have a game plan. But I have a game plan and that's what I I just follow the strategy and um go from there. >> Let's take a look at the US dollar DXY please and um take a look at how uh the dollar is behaving. This looks like um it's been rebounding from its bottom and uh yeah continued strength ever since the summer. We look at the dollar because it's important for a lot of other assets including gold. What's your take here? Yeah. So, gold has gone from, you know, a little frothy to nobody wanted it. And it looks like it's put in a beautiful rounding formation. I would say it's putting in a base or it's bottomed. It's it looks like it wants to continue to go higher. I I think there's potential for a very big move up in the dollar. If we do see some type of big financial problems, we tend to see the US dollar index rally. Uh so that will put pressure on metals and and if this unfolds and this chart pattern is pointing to where it's going, I mean it's it's showing a very big move in the dollar. I think the dollar could go a lot higher. This is only about to 110. I think the dollar could go to about 116, potentially 121. And of course, if that's the case, it is going to put a lot of downward pressure on on metals and and commodities in general. So, this is one of those other things that uh will definitely dampen take a lot of the wind out of the sales for precious metals once the dollar starts to to go higher. Now, I think the dollar could could trade slightly higher and and and kind of grind sideways for a little while for a few more bars here, a few more weeks, and gold ends up putting in a very big run, a big a big move to the upside. We can see them move together sometimes and we've we've seen that a little bit more recently. So, it's not out of the question, but eventually if things get ugly, we're going to see that I think the dollar shoot higher and it'll just be going up so fast it's going to actually, you know, decrease the value of gold in the US dollar currency. >> So, going back to the um commenter on the initial post that I showed in the first uh question here, he asks, "What are we buying?" I mean, let's frame it a different way without actually specifying what we're buying or selling. Let's just think of things that you think are more undervalued relative to others. Anything in particular that you think has more potential to at least recover from here? >> Yeah. I mean, I like I like the dollar. So, like for example, I'm Canadian. So, for me, uh being in a cash position, I keep my money in US dollars because I believe we're going to see another big move up in the dollar. And the Canadian looney, I think, is going to fall. So, for me, moving just to cash, holding US dollars is a good play. you can play it uh the dollar ETF, the dollar index ETF, UU up and uh for people who are American who want to take advantage of the rising dollar itself. I I think I think bonds I bonds if we take a look at TLT long-term bonds, they are trying to carve out a bottom. Let's just zoom out. It's a much bigger pattern. And I do think it's trying to carve out a bottom. I mean, if the economy gets weak and oil breaks down, then we're going to see the inflation number really drop quickly because it's tied to oil. And so, then there's room for rates to potentially keep getting cut. And if rates keep getting cut, then we're going to naturally see bonds want to move higher. And investors, we're seeing this more and more now. When there's a big down day in stocks, we tend to see TLT move higher. People are starting to go back to the norm of like stocks down, bonds up, and vice versa. So, I think the dollar I think bonds have potential to hold some value and um and move higher. Uh those are kind of the two the two that I like. I I think I think gold and precious metals, I think there's one leg higher. So, I still think there's a nice trade there. But again, I think it's just a trade that's only going to last a couple of months and you do have to like eventually exit to lock in those gains and purchase it. But bonds and the dollar are the two that I I kind of like at this point. I'm not I hold I hold a lot of the dollar. So, I do have the dollar play. I don't hold bonds like this. I I'm I'm not buying into bonds yet, but I do think there's I think a lot most of the downside is taken out of bonds already. >> Okay. And again, we're not giving financial advice. We're learning from a trader. So, do your own diligence, make your own decisions. But Chris, walk us through what you're doing right now with your cash. >> Yeah. Well, we're doing exactly that. We're just sitting and we're sitting on our hands in cash right now. We moved [clears throat] to cash a couple weeks ago. we're letting this market just sell off and and figure itself out when we come to the equities markets and that's it. I mean, we just have to wait for the markets to give us a new signal. I think, you know, if you look at the characteristics of successful traders, they're the ones who allow trades to unfold to let the trades come to them, right? It's it's you can't just go out and force trades. And that's what a lot of people do is they, you know, they join a bunch of services. They're constantly looking for trades. And I know the way the whole trading industry works is everybody pushes out lots of trades because people want trades, but the reality is you got to let the markets provide opportunities and let them unfold and mature and it takes time. And so being patient and letting these trades unfold and then moving into them, taking advantage of that trend and then slowly rotating out, I think is is the key here. So, um I think people need to be patient. And to answer your question, we're literally watching and learning uh about the markets as everybody's trying to figure out what to do. And we're just safely on the sidelines collecting interest. And if a new trend starts to the upside, our system will say, "Hey, this is a new trend. Let's let's get back in. We'll ride it up again." Or if it rolls over, we'll we'll either stay in cash or we'll play the dollar index play or we'll play potentially a bond play and we'll we'll benefit while the stock market goes down. So, we're in limbo waiting for the next trigger here. >> And then my final question before we close off today, Chris, every time the market grinds higher, given your long-term outlook for uh staying defensive, if not outright bearishness, can we expect you to be even more cautious or can we expect you to at some point change your mind and fully go all in and ride the momentum? Where do you draw that line? >> I mean, when the market goes up, we're in. We're we're in. we ride it higher. So I when I'll be really excited is when the market has a big financial reset and then everything is fair valued or below value and then I'll be like guys this is like we'll be like kids in a candy store. If you haven't lost all your money and you were able to benefit or avoid the crash it is going to be an unbelievable time. I'm going to be like guys just throw darts buy whatever the hell you want. It could be really >> you sound like a value investor Chris. >> Well you have to change your strategy with the market environment. Like right now there I don't believe there's very good value anywhere. So when everything's undervalued, I just become the value investor. Why not? We're going to hunt for the best value, the biggest returns and dividends, the the best upside potential. Uh right now, you got to protect your capital because there isn't good value. And then when when everything's on a discount, I mean, it's you become the ultimate value investor. The problem is most people when the big financial reset hits, they're all buy and hold investors. They they don't have a ton of cap. they're already holding all that stuff, but you know, the difference is like exiting and then having all this cash to put in at the bottom to invest in stuff that's actually at a lower value. And and so I do become a value investor, but right now it's like protect your capital, protect your money. The higher this market goes, the more leery I get, the bigger the correction I think is coming. So I do get more fearful, but again, if it if the trend turns up, we just have to hop back in and trade it. I mean, the trend is your friend, right? So, um, I thought the market was going to top a long time ago, like a year and a half, two years ago, and it's still going up. So, every time it turns a new trend higher, we jump back in and we have to ride it up no matter how much I like it or not. And on in all this observation, it seems like when there's a big flush out, like you said, a big reset, the path going forward is pretty clear, or at least pretty simple to evaluate. When things look frothy, then it becomes a more complicated emotional question. Do I ride the froth and risk getting wiped out or do I stay out and risk FOMO? And I don't know how to answer that. Not many people do. And that's the mental angst that people have amongst themselves. How would you go about analyzing that question? >> Yeah, you see the bottom line is you need a strategy. And the strategy that I use on the time frames I use because we have about 5 to 12 trades a year. We can play the froth. A lot of these these pushes to the upside. We catch these new rallies in the indices to to new all-time highs and we're we're playing these little frothy pushes is what they are. But we have a short enough time frame that when it rolls over, we're out very quickly. So, we we're still taking advantage of these little waves and these pushes to all-time highs, but then we quickly exit when things show weakness. It's not easy. There's no doubt. It's a it's a constant fear. It's like fear that the trade is going to fail. It's fear the market's going to crash. fear that, you know, if I don't get in, you're gonna miss out and it's going to have a huge rally. And that's where the whole strategy comes into play. It's just to just know like we have a strategy that kind of plays in this window of it really doesn't matter what happens. We just we just play these new trends that start and we exit as they come to an end and that's it. I mean, it's no matter what, even with strategies, you still have a lot of emotions. It's still very emotional to enter trades to to sit in trades because you hear bad news or things like that, but you have to follow the market. And that's the biggest thing. And I hear this from members all the time. Uh we have a group of members that like skip trades. They're like, I don't like this one. I'm going to skip this one. And of course, those are the trades that when a group of people skip them are usually the best trades. And the ones they want to get in are usually the ones where they're like they feel really strongly about. And it's their emotions are doing the exact opposite. So, you really just have to follow the strategy. Trade every wave to the upside if it has strength. And as soon as it shows no more strength, uh, like it's weakened, you got to get out. And you just have to rinse and repeat. And you're going to catch some huge wins. You're going to avoid some massive losses. And you're going to have to just move in and out a few times. You're going to have some small losing trades when the market just chops around. But that's the game is you have to take advantage of every rally. Make sure you avoid the crashes. And in between, you're going to take some losing trades when things don't move quick enough in one direction. >> Well, like I said, follow Chris. Links down below to learn more. So, uh, [snorts] yeah, we'll see you next time. Chris, tell us a little bit more about where we can find you before we close off. >> Uh, yeah. So, if you want to follow my work, you can follow me on YouTube. The Technical Traders is my channel, or go to my website, thetechnicaltraders.com. And I manage my own portfolio. I share exactly my daily analysis, my video of what I think is happening in all my positions. We literally just trade the markets together and I I trade ETFs 5 to 12 trades a year. Very simple to manage your portfolio and um that's what I do. >> Okay. Thank you very much, Chris. Links down below. Follow Chris and don't forget to like and subscribe to this channel. Take care. We'll see you next time, Chris. >> Thanks. Take care. >> Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
Market Hasn’t Even Unravelled Yet: The Real Crash About To Drop | Chris Vermeulen
Summary
Transcript
We moved to cash a couple weeks ago. We moved to the sidelines because the market was saying it didn't know what it's doing. And now we're we're seeing it with our tools, our indicators that the emotions are all over the place. It is going to be an unbelievable time. I'm going to be like, "Guys, just throw darts. Buy whatever the hell you want. You could be really >> You sound like a value investor, Chris. >> Well, you have to change your strategy with the market environment." Like right now there I don't believe there's very good value anywhere. >> The fear of a market rotation is now here. It's very real. It's very visceral on everybody's minds. What is next with the markets? We're already down a lot from the all-time highs on a lot of securities and a lot of risk assets. And uh Christopher Mullen, our next guest, chief market strategist at the technical traders.com, has been warning us about what is currently happening now and he has warnings for what may happen into the future as well. Welcome back to the show, Chris. Good to see you. >> Yeah, thanks for having me, David. Always a pleasure. this um downturn or rotation that we've been talking about quite some for quite some time. People should realize it's present tense. It's already happened. I saw somebody put together this very useful visual um a very easy to understand quick to glance visual of what is happening right now in the markets and it's very clear that risk off is no longer a future projection. It's already here. Apple, Google, S&P, even gold, Amazon, Microsoft, the list goes on. risk assets are down from their all-time highs. It's important to note that yeah, gold's down 7% from their all-time highs, but you can't really call this a bare market yet. I'm just I'm not using the word bare market. I haven't said this is a bare market. I've just said the correction that people have been warning about that's here. And I like to discuss what is correcting fairly, what is not correcting fairly today. And this important question that a commenter has, so what are we buying? Which is a good follow-up question to this graphic. The assumption I think is we should be buying on this big correction or dip, whatever you want to call it. Depending on what you're looking at, it could be a complete wipe out or crash. Look at the meme coins. Look at the more risky uh sectors of the crypto space. So, should we even be buying this dip? That's a separate question al together. But these are the themes of our conversation today. What do you make of this graphic, Chris? >> Yeah. Well, it it clearly shows the speculative um plays are down the most. Obviously, a lot of lot of coins in there and it's definitely showing money fleas very quickly when it gets nervous. And usually the like the lower half there that are down the most, those are the ones that are going to get hit the quickest, the hardest. Um, when you go and you look at these other stocks, like when you look at the the this the upper half from Meta really up, those are kind of like hardcore assets that the majority of people hold. And I I think this is what we've seen is this pullback is really I think it's just the froth. I I still think we're going to see the markets have a much much deeper correction when we when they do start a big correction. And I think this is really just a little bit of froth coming off the top. I think uh I don't think this is a buy the dip uh play. Like I think uh we need to be aware that yes, the markets may want to bounce and have another push higher and you can get long again, but overall I wouldn't be I wouldn't look to buy this as like a long-term play. I think the markets are going to have a much bigger correction at some point. And you know, Nvidia down 16% to me really is nothing because it is such a crowded um play. Everybody's in it. Everybody watches it and trades it. And it's a it's a there's a lot of emotional buying in there. And when that emotional buying unravels when things do start to collapse, like a 15% pullback, 20% in Tesla and Nvidia, that's normal for that stock, for those stocks. They're volatile stocks. Yeah, they're huge, but they have that kind of volatility. And the people who are piling in to those are normal to look at the the trades they'd be putting on below. A lot of them things that move 40 50 60% all the time. So um I think there's a lot more downside eventually when this market unravels and I don't think this is kind of like the buy the dip mentality. I think we'll see a much bigger correction in the Tesla and up the Meta and up kind of stocks at some point down the road here. When you say we're anticipating a market correction, which market are you talking about? Are you talking about the S&P here? Uh I'm assuming you're referring to Yeah. >> Yeah. The the equities market. I think the equities market will have a bigger correction. >> Well, let's turn to a chart of the S&P right now. And uh we're speaking today on Monday the 24th of November, and it's a big update. It's a big bounce for both both uh stocks and um and Bitcoin. Um well, Bitcoin is up half a percent. Uh it seems like every time we sell below a certain threshold there's a bounce. Is there a major floor somewhere around uh this chart that you can talk about? >> Yeah, there there's definitely some interesting price levels we could look at. So from a technical standpoint, the the the trend of the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are down. They're in a short-term downtrend uh right now. And so all all we're having at this point is a bounce within a downtrend. Now, what's interesting is we've been going slloshing back and forth with this emotional roller coaster. So, on on the 30-inut chart on the left here, you and I have covered this uh several times. So, this is this red indicator is known as our our FOMO indicator. That tells us when people just pile into the stock market. They feel like they're being left behind. They have to buy now because the bottom is in. And so, that's what we saw on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ last week. Everybody piled in at the open and then suddenly this was on the back of Nvidia news and then later in that day we had unemployment news uh which created which took it the other way. So everybody wanted in the stock market a couple days ago. Later that session we had three uh waves of panic selling that created these three big pushes to the downside. And so these these indicators that I have drawn here when they cross above these blue lines they are usually extreme pivot highs and lows. And so we can identify the market. So, it's going from everybody wanting in to to later in the day, nobody wants in anymore. They're they're bailing out. And on Friday, we ended up closing with the FOMO indicator above this blue line. And when we close above the blue line on a Friday, all the emotional traders feel like who didn't get in feel like they over the whole weekend, they're like, I need to get in. I need to get in. They just kind of ruminate on like, I got to get into this stock market. And so that's why we've got this gap up and we're seeing this followth through buying today is like this kind of feeding frenzy. And it was interesting because it was just large caps moving the markets early this morning as you and I recording this on the 24th. And now it's kind of turned into a kind of a bit of more of a broad market rally. We're seeing the micro caps and the small caps participate. And and typically when everybody gets into the more speculative plays, that's actually a little bit of a contrarian sign. Now everybody's starting to get excited about the stock market again and we're in a downtrend and usually we're going to probably see some more selling. So I don't remember what your original question was, but this market right now is very emotional and you know we're coming down. We're we're testing this very critical support level on the chart right now. We had it fall back a couple months ago. It's bounced back up. It's now come back down to this significant level. And now the big question is how is it going to trade sideways uh on this chart? Kind of really messed up that chart, but in the in the big picture here, we could be putting in a shoulder, a head, and another shoulder. And a head and shoulders pattern is a very powerful topping pattern. And when you break the line that connects the two shoulders, that's when you get a very big precipitous fall. Usually the height of uh from the top of the head to the uh to the to the neckline gives us the downside target of where it could go. So we could see the S&P 500 potentially if we break down over the next month or so down to like you know $614 uh per um per share which is about a 7 8% correction from where we are. So we really just need to sit back. We moved to cash a couple weeks ago. We moved to the sidelines because the market was saying it didn't know what it's doing. And now we're we're seeing it with our tools, our indicators that the emotions are all over the place. Nobody knows where it's going. And that's why we step aside. We don't need to get involved in this scenario. But if you notice the moving averages, David, the 50-day starting to slope down. The the 20day is clearly sloping down. The 5day moving average is now below the 50-day. So, the momentum that has always kind of been up and to the right, it looks like it's actually coming to an end for a significant um correction. And so, we could be very close to something bigger than just this buy this little dip and you're good, you know, a week or two from now. I think it could be you buy this dip and you might be underwater for a long time. >> Before we continue with the video, let's talk about a growing issue, a very important issue. Online privacy. Your personal data isn't just sitting in your email or phone. It's being scraped, sold, and passed around by data broker sites every single day, and you may not even know it. Today's sponsor, Delete Me, helps you fight back. They monitor hundreds of broker sites, scan for your exposed personal data, and remove it before it can be used against you. You also get regular privacy reports that show where your data was found and what's been taken down. In fact, in one recent check, they reviewed over 340 plus listings to see if any data broker had my personal information on my report. That's how much is out there. And they keep scanning every single week. Don't wait. Go to joindeme.com/david and use the code davidin for 20% off of all US plans or scan the QR code here on the screen right now. Take control of your privacy before somebody else does. Chris, I want to come back to the markets just a bit, but I want to bring your attention to something that I don't think you and I have ever talked about, at least not much in detail. Let me allow me to share my screen for just a minute here. This is a prediction market. There are several of them out there. I just I just picked Koshi, but um what this does is it allows people to for those people not aware of what prediction markets are. It allows people to bet exactly on events themselves rather than buying the markets. It's people some people call it gambling. Um but technically that's what it is. But then again, you could argue the stock market is gambling as well. So, it's really just a matter of perspective. Anyway, what it does is it allows you to bet on events such as Fed decision in December, number of rate cuts, so on and so forth. I just picked the economics columns. You can also do culture, sports. Let's focus on economics for the sake of our discussion. The point I'm trying to raise is these prediction markets have been called out for being scarily accurate in actually predicting actual results, especially the closer you get towards the actual event themselves. Uh, I have several questions about this. First of all, do you use this at all? >> Not for your own personal trading, but just as a as an indicator. >> No, I've never I've never I'll check it out, but I know I haven't followed it. Didn't know it existed. So, but there are definitely ways to bet on everything in this world. [laughter] >> I mean, this is essentially the same thing as an options market or let's say the CME Fed watch tool. It's just people, real market participants, betting on certain events or trading on certain events or placing positions on future events. So you got the commitment of traders reports for example. You've got put call spreads. Uh all these are indicators for positioning. This is another indicator of positioning for example. So let's just cuz I'm bringing this up because it's getting more and more popular. Poly Market's another one that's huge and people Poly Market has been um called out several times in the media, mainstream media that is for having actually had um pretty much perfect records for predicting um political elections. And so now it's drawing big money and big attention. Let's just assume that the odds of the market, cuz the market's never wrong in this case, are perfect. And so if something is overwhelmingly above 60%, 70%, you know, that's going to happen. So as you so if you as a trader look at a number of indicators like betting markets or options positioning and it all points to one certain thing, do you trade against it or go with it? >> Um well I I would trade with the overall price, right? I won't I'm I'm not going to bet my money on what a bunch of people think is going to happen. That's I'm a technical trader. Give me logic, not not um that type of stuff. But obviously if if it's going to play out in these odds, why wouldn't you want to go in that direction? I mean, I don't I I do my own analysis. I'd rather I'd rather make money and lose money on my own decisions and my own strategies than blindly follow other people and just go with, you know, a bunch of people betting on something. So, um, you're right. If it is accurate though, it gives you definitely some insight. It would definitely give you peace of mind. give you some mental prepare preparedness for what's going to happen to be like, okay, well, if that does happen and I'm in this position, uh how could that affect me and how quickly, you know, could could something backfire or work in my favor? So, I haven't looked into it enough, but I definitely prefer following price in my own analysis than uh blindly following like another website where where people bet on stuff. It's just not it's just not my thing. It's to me it's out of control. >> Can you take a step back and just explain the philosophy here? How does the price action in itself, which is really just history when you think about it, how does price action so far tell you what may happen in the future? >> Well, generally the the kind of analysis is a trend is more likely to continue than it is to end because it's it's the thought process of a group of people. They're all thinking and feeling the same things. They're putting their money in the same in that direction. Um, price action is really telling us what people are thinking and feeling and and obviously what they're doing with their money. And so you really that's the main driver of stock pricing. It's not fundamental data. It's not the government. It's not it's none of that stuff. You can have the strongest companies in the world and still see a stock price get cut in half or or fall 70% all because there's a lot of fear in the overall market and selling. So the charts tell us what people think and truly feel about a particular stock at any given time and you're better just follow price than than anything else. I'm not sure if that answers your question, but >> No, it does. >> Um I'm also curious to how you as a technician integrate price action which again is a historical record uh versus another technical indicator. Basically a combination of technical indicators. Um how do you use that? >> Yeah, I use a I use several different indicators. So I I talk in my book technical trading mastery about the inner market analysis and I take like a 3D view of the market. Now most people just look at a chart. Well, if you're most technical traders look at just a chart and the price action they throw a bunch of price indicators on it. There's millions of indicators out there. The thing is they're all using really most of them the same thing. Meaning they're all using price action. So what how I look at the market is I look at price. So price action is is is important. I also like to look at time. So I put in time cycles because people have go through regular cycles, the mind process, the moons, earnings, all of that stuff. All this stuff plays into these cycles, these things that happen. And then I look into sentiment, which is where's money flowing between various assets and things like that. And when you when you look at price, uh, time and like feelings, you get this really good three-dimensional view of the market of being like, okay, this is where people are. this is what they're thinking and doing and this is where money is flowing. And so when you look at it from that perspective, you get a lot more guidance into how strong a move is. Is this just a, for example, when a new trend starts, it might just be a bounce or it could be the start of a new trend. Well, by looking at these three different layers and things at play, we can be like, okay, this is not a bounce anymore. This is actually a full-on trend. There's people committing to it. There's big money flows. they're in the right psychology, the right mindset to to move into this. And so I don't use just price action. There's there's quite a bit more that goes into it in order to get a gauge of what's going on because, you know, just tech technical analysis on its own, just trading pure price charts isn't isn't the best tool. You still need to like it's kind of like a game of poker playing the markets. And when you can get a gauge of where their money's flowing, you kind of see what their hand is and you you know if they're on tilt or not. And those little indicators I was showing you earlier with the panic selling and the panic uh the buying, those are that's when traders are on tilt and they're making bad decisions because they're emotional. And so those give us those edges to tell us when there's going to be a little bit of a pullback, when there's going to be a b a bounce. Uh so you don't want to just follow price. You don't want to just follow one thing. You kind of need multiple layers to this market to get a real feel for it. >> Well, let's go back to the charts. Uh by the way, people can learn more from Chris and his trading methods. Link down below. technicalraders.com. Uh let's took it let's take a look now at Bitcoin, please, Chris. Bitcoin is literally breaking down and has been for several weeks. There's a there's been a $400 billion crypto wipeout over the last week and uh some estimates place that number even higher, although 400 billion is a mainstream news quoted number. Let's talk about Bitcoin. Uh what's your reaction to that chart that you're seeing there? Those big red bars. >> Yeah, there's there's a lot of there's a lot of panic selling going on. Uh it's definitely pulling back into a pretty critical support zone. And you know when you look when you look at this price action, I think you and I had talked about this a while ago. I wasn't a fan of Bitcoin because it has this this broadening formation of series of higher highs, lower lows. It's it's meaning there's more volatility. It's increasing in risk and volatility on every wave. Every time it makes a new high, it gets rejected. It becomes a fake out. And then it makes a lower low and then it finds a bottom and rallies. And so it's a terrible pattern, very difficult to trade. It's not worth trading and they usually resolve to the downside. Eventually, it's just showing instability. It's in between buyers and sellers and and we ended up finding it breaking to the downside and and it's picked up speed. You can see the volume. There's a ton of selling going on. A lot of fear in the space and it has dropped right down into that kind of around the $80,000 per Bitcoin mark, which is kind of in this blue box. This is where a significant breakout took place. back in 2024. It's a major bottom that we found earlier this year. And so it's just dipped down into that level where there will be a bunch of people saying, "Hey, if it drops into this range, I'm going to buy some more." People who bought it back in March and April. There'll also just be other traders who look at and say, "Well, if it falls here, this is a previous support level. I'm going to buy it." So, right now, we're just having a technical bounce. It's in a downtrend. There's a lot of selling and it's just a bunch of buyers who are trying to pick a bottom here and they're buying it at a support level. So, it's it's getting a little bit of a bounce. The big question with Bitcoin is is what is going to happen next. And that's that's where we need to figure out is it just going to trade sideways and really flounder and then eventually kind of break down and and go for another swan dive or is it going to have a fairly decent bounce and is it going to play out for a couple months? I think it's going to follow the stock market. I think if the stock market struggles here and rolls over, Bitcoin is going to break down and we'll probably be headed down to the 60 or or $50 $50,000 mark very quickly. But if the stock market does bounce, I do think we could see Bitcoin bounce. Um I wouldn't trade it for the bounce. So right now the trend is down. You don't want to try and pick a bottom. So I wouldn't trade the bounce. I'd be more inclined to potentially look to buy an inverse or play the downside if it does bounce up and starts to roll over. I would look for some type of pullback and kind of go from there or wait for it to start to break down through this level again and then potentially jump on board because this is an emotional asset, very emotional asset. And once it starts to break a very critical level, everyone starts to bail out on the trade very quickly and uh and it'll sell off. It'll be like a landslide just like this last one. It'll be a string of red bars with huge volume. And there's enough momentum and enough people that panic in Bitcoin at the same time that it'll create a big move. They there's the same waves in Bitcoin to the upside and the downside. When it breaks out and starts to run, they all jump on and they drive the price up. When it breaks down, they all panic and they bail out. And so there's very good opportunity in Bitcoin because of that. And we've traded it a few times recently um because of these strong moves. And there might be a really nice breakdown here in in the next month or so. >> I I kind of understand why you're saying don't pick a bottom. First of all, nobody can really pick bottoms perfectly, it's dangerous. And second, um like you just said, if it goes below a certain point and more selling could occur and follow. But if some trader were to say to you, Chris, well, without assigning a bottom or at least being prepared for some sort of floor, I don't know an entry point and I don't know when to get back in. How would you respond to that? Uh, I guess it depends on that person's hurt. Are they trying to swing trade it or are they looking to buy it long term, right? Um, I think if you got the long-term mentality, like the buy and hold, like I it doesn't matter what price you buy it. Just you're going to ride a hell of a roller coaster ride. So, you just you can buy it anywhere and just average in as you get more money. If you love it, you just buy more. But, if you're a short-term trader, I'd be like, well, this looks like it's a spot for a bounce. I think you could get a bounce up to 95,000, which is, you know, $7,000 move from here. So, you're looking at 6 7 8% potential gain. Um, this this would be a spot to try, but if it breaks those lows, I mean, I'd be getting out because it could be down at 60 or 55,000 very quickly. >> So, I'm going to share my screen one for a minute here, Chris. And this is my attempt at kind of guessing where the uh psychological not the floor so much, but the psychological um support level may be. And I'm just looking at the pre previous two bull cycles here. In 2021, um, double top and then 2022 happened. It bottomed around 1617,000 and it stayed there for a good number of months before slowly inching back up. $17,000 was the top of the last cycle. And and right now if you're starting to if you see what h what what's happening here it looks like it's about to approach the top of the last cycle as well which is 65 60 69,000 as well. So if one were to say well just based on the previous two cycles 70,000 might look like a a good support level. Um can you validate that or or refute that? Yeah, like the the seven the 70,000 could be good. I mean, I can um let me just see if I can pull my chart up. I just had a problem with my monitor, but um if you take a look >> Yeah, I can see your screen. >> Yeah, I think there's some weird blue box that's stuck across the top. You might see it. I'm not sure. But anyway, if we look at the price action here, this is the weekly chart of Bitcoin going back to 2019. >> Uh your $70,000 mark would be good. I mean, this you can see here there's a a a big uh cup and there was a handle formation. This was actually a trade that we did. We actually got in as it was starting to break out and we played it and got out right up here at 10875, right up near the high for one trade there. But overall, I think we could come back down to the 70,000 mark. It'll want to settle into this. It'll be a zone, right? There's there's I don't like to look at things as like specific pricing. I think it'll be kind of this whole this whole blue box kind of the depth of this bull flag and these kind of highs. It'll it'll settle down into this area. So 70 is definitely at the upper end, but usually it wants to like push a little deeper. Um and there's going to be this big break of this pivot low that was over here around 74. And that is a very significant level. The break of 74 is equivalent to this break right here. So if it was to break, it's going to go out of favor in a big way. So, if this if this level is broken, I think we're going to see it, you know, really tumble and start to to to run a whole lot lower and take a lot of time to recover. If you notice this one here, there was a high and then a slightly higher high and then it came down and then it put in this this bounce, this bare flag before it rolled over and broke down. Well, that's exactly what I'm trying to explain over here is we're going to get some type of bounce before it rolls over and then goes, you know, to to repeat this scenario. So, that's what I think is going to happen. I think you called it. It's very similar to this previous move in 2021 and uh I think it could repeat again and Bitcoin could be um much much lower uh you know, 6 eight months from now maybe. Well, let's see uh let's see uh if uh if if I'm right. Uh I always joke to my friends that I'm a contra indicator. I recently there's only two times I added to my Bitcoin positions personally in my life. One was at uh near the top in the last cycle and uh I just bought some more at 100,000. So uh comment below if you like me to disclose whenever I buy and then you can short. I'm kidding. Um [laughter] Chris, let's uh let's move on to gold and then we'll round up and get your um market outlook overall and your preferred assets. But uh gold seems to be uh consolidating. Let's hear your thoughts on gold. >> Yeah, I I like gold. It's got a series of of bull flags kind of working its way up and to the right. It's it got a little frothy about a month and a half ago. Everybody was piling in who was open to the concept of moving into metals. And so it it's had a pullback and a pause. Overall, this is a a very strong chart pattern. I think we've seen gold have these series of it rallies, it pauses, it stair steps its way up. These are called bull flags, which are very strong chart patterns. And the next move from here is actually pointing to, you know, 50 uh 51 $5200 per ounce for gold. So, we can pull that down. I wish I get this blue box out of the way, but you can see we're going about, you know, first level here is going to be the 46 $4,700 for gold and then I think we could go up here. And I do think I mean I I'm always thinking the market is on the verge of a rollover and a big sell-off. But the things are aligning more and soon more more and more now that I think at any point here we could see a very explosive move a very quick move very similar to this one here maybe even more powerful that we could have that same move back up to this 51 5200 and I think if that is the case I think the stock market will be selling off I think we'll be seeing money coming out of stocks and then it's going to be looking for money it's looking for return it's going to move into the precious metals space for one last big push so I think there's a lot of upside in in gold, silver, uh pre precious metals and miners, uh once once it finally hooks up and gets a bid. But I do think the stock market kind of wants to is going to want to start to sell off first. I think we need to see money coming from somewhere to go into the metal space. And as we know, the stock market is way bigger than the gold market. So when the stock market does have a mass mass exodus and people are liquidating their stocks, there is going to be a ton of capital that's going to want to push and rush into the gold sector and drive it, I think, up very quickly. And this is what unfolded in 2027 as well. So if this repeats or rhymes again, it is going to mean that if stocks start to sell off, it means I think the top is in. And then if gold has shoots up to this 52 level, I'd be prepared to to exit the precious metal space because I do think it will actually put in a significant high and uh and then reverse and sell off with the markets temporarily for for quite a while, for a few months or 6 or 12 months. >> Well, why does something need to sell off? Can't it just I mean, can't it just stay sideways for quite some time? I know the answer is yes, it could theoretically do anything, but you're citing a higher probability to a selloff. Why is that? >> Uh only because if if we do go into a recession and the stock market is selling and home prices are falling, all of that is generally going to start to happen around the same time. People get scared. People start to lose their jobs. They start to um see all their value, all their wealth just vaporizing literally week after week. And any little down tick in gold or anything, it is just enough for them to be like, I need to get out. The thing is when people get scared, the reality is most people don't know a lot about the financial markets. They don't understand how they move and why they move and and how to track them and how to know when to own or when not to own something. So when everything they own is dropping in value very quickly. It's very easy to get overwhelmed, get scared, and be like, "Just sell everything. Just just liquidate. I just want to move to cash. I'm tired of losing money. Everything I buy is going down." And they just they group all their assets into one thing and they just liquidate. And we see that we see precious metals. We see things that actually are good investments just get pulled down with the liquidation. It's margin calls. It's fear selling. And so you're right, gold could hold up. There is the a perfect storm brewing for gold to hold up or maybe even keep going higher as the stock market uh maybe goes into a huge reset. And um and maybe the the precious metal space never looks back. That's always a case, but I kind of always take the markets one leg at a time, one of these bull flag patterns at a time. I navigate it. I play it. And um I don't look too far into the future because I know I'm not I'm not a buy and hold type of person. I want to play each leg, control and manage my risk and my positions and just, you know, walk them walk up with the markets or walk down with the markets holding the right assets. So typically just when there's mass selling and and global fear, everything kind of gets sold off. And this time could be different cuz we got, you know, central banks loading up with precious metals. You know, we haven't seen this type of I don't think this buying before. So, you know, there there could be a case that precious metals hold up or keep on going and they they they actually just keep going higher as the stock market melts down. But um I mean, we don't know, right? So, you have to have a game plan. But I have a game plan and that's what I I just follow the strategy and um go from there. >> Let's take a look at the US dollar DXY please and um take a look at how uh the dollar is behaving. This looks like um it's been rebounding from its bottom and uh yeah continued strength ever since the summer. We look at the dollar because it's important for a lot of other assets including gold. What's your take here? Yeah. So, gold has gone from, you know, a little frothy to nobody wanted it. And it looks like it's put in a beautiful rounding formation. I would say it's putting in a base or it's bottomed. It's it looks like it wants to continue to go higher. I I think there's potential for a very big move up in the dollar. If we do see some type of big financial problems, we tend to see the US dollar index rally. Uh so that will put pressure on metals and and if this unfolds and this chart pattern is pointing to where it's going, I mean it's it's showing a very big move in the dollar. I think the dollar could go a lot higher. This is only about to 110. I think the dollar could go to about 116, potentially 121. And of course, if that's the case, it is going to put a lot of downward pressure on on metals and and commodities in general. So, this is one of those other things that uh will definitely dampen take a lot of the wind out of the sales for precious metals once the dollar starts to to go higher. Now, I think the dollar could could trade slightly higher and and and kind of grind sideways for a little while for a few more bars here, a few more weeks, and gold ends up putting in a very big run, a big a big move to the upside. We can see them move together sometimes and we've we've seen that a little bit more recently. So, it's not out of the question, but eventually if things get ugly, we're going to see that I think the dollar shoot higher and it'll just be going up so fast it's going to actually, you know, decrease the value of gold in the US dollar currency. >> So, going back to the um commenter on the initial post that I showed in the first uh question here, he asks, "What are we buying?" I mean, let's frame it a different way without actually specifying what we're buying or selling. Let's just think of things that you think are more undervalued relative to others. Anything in particular that you think has more potential to at least recover from here? >> Yeah. I mean, I like I like the dollar. So, like for example, I'm Canadian. So, for me, uh being in a cash position, I keep my money in US dollars because I believe we're going to see another big move up in the dollar. And the Canadian looney, I think, is going to fall. So, for me, moving just to cash, holding US dollars is a good play. you can play it uh the dollar ETF, the dollar index ETF, UU up and uh for people who are American who want to take advantage of the rising dollar itself. I I think I think bonds I bonds if we take a look at TLT long-term bonds, they are trying to carve out a bottom. Let's just zoom out. It's a much bigger pattern. And I do think it's trying to carve out a bottom. I mean, if the economy gets weak and oil breaks down, then we're going to see the inflation number really drop quickly because it's tied to oil. And so, then there's room for rates to potentially keep getting cut. And if rates keep getting cut, then we're going to naturally see bonds want to move higher. And investors, we're seeing this more and more now. When there's a big down day in stocks, we tend to see TLT move higher. People are starting to go back to the norm of like stocks down, bonds up, and vice versa. So, I think the dollar I think bonds have potential to hold some value and um and move higher. Uh those are kind of the two the two that I like. I I think I think gold and precious metals, I think there's one leg higher. So, I still think there's a nice trade there. But again, I think it's just a trade that's only going to last a couple of months and you do have to like eventually exit to lock in those gains and purchase it. But bonds and the dollar are the two that I I kind of like at this point. I'm not I hold I hold a lot of the dollar. So, I do have the dollar play. I don't hold bonds like this. I I'm I'm not buying into bonds yet, but I do think there's I think a lot most of the downside is taken out of bonds already. >> Okay. And again, we're not giving financial advice. We're learning from a trader. So, do your own diligence, make your own decisions. But Chris, walk us through what you're doing right now with your cash. >> Yeah. Well, we're doing exactly that. We're just sitting and we're sitting on our hands in cash right now. We moved [clears throat] to cash a couple weeks ago. we're letting this market just sell off and and figure itself out when we come to the equities markets and that's it. I mean, we just have to wait for the markets to give us a new signal. I think, you know, if you look at the characteristics of successful traders, they're the ones who allow trades to unfold to let the trades come to them, right? It's it's you can't just go out and force trades. And that's what a lot of people do is they, you know, they join a bunch of services. They're constantly looking for trades. And I know the way the whole trading industry works is everybody pushes out lots of trades because people want trades, but the reality is you got to let the markets provide opportunities and let them unfold and mature and it takes time. And so being patient and letting these trades unfold and then moving into them, taking advantage of that trend and then slowly rotating out, I think is is the key here. So, um I think people need to be patient. And to answer your question, we're literally watching and learning uh about the markets as everybody's trying to figure out what to do. And we're just safely on the sidelines collecting interest. And if a new trend starts to the upside, our system will say, "Hey, this is a new trend. Let's let's get back in. We'll ride it up again." Or if it rolls over, we'll we'll either stay in cash or we'll play the dollar index play or we'll play potentially a bond play and we'll we'll benefit while the stock market goes down. So, we're in limbo waiting for the next trigger here. >> And then my final question before we close off today, Chris, every time the market grinds higher, given your long-term outlook for uh staying defensive, if not outright bearishness, can we expect you to be even more cautious or can we expect you to at some point change your mind and fully go all in and ride the momentum? Where do you draw that line? >> I mean, when the market goes up, we're in. We're we're in. we ride it higher. So I when I'll be really excited is when the market has a big financial reset and then everything is fair valued or below value and then I'll be like guys this is like we'll be like kids in a candy store. If you haven't lost all your money and you were able to benefit or avoid the crash it is going to be an unbelievable time. I'm going to be like guys just throw darts buy whatever the hell you want. It could be really >> you sound like a value investor Chris. >> Well you have to change your strategy with the market environment. Like right now there I don't believe there's very good value anywhere. So when everything's undervalued, I just become the value investor. Why not? We're going to hunt for the best value, the biggest returns and dividends, the the best upside potential. Uh right now, you got to protect your capital because there isn't good value. And then when when everything's on a discount, I mean, it's you become the ultimate value investor. The problem is most people when the big financial reset hits, they're all buy and hold investors. They they don't have a ton of cap. they're already holding all that stuff, but you know, the difference is like exiting and then having all this cash to put in at the bottom to invest in stuff that's actually at a lower value. And and so I do become a value investor, but right now it's like protect your capital, protect your money. The higher this market goes, the more leery I get, the bigger the correction I think is coming. So I do get more fearful, but again, if it if the trend turns up, we just have to hop back in and trade it. I mean, the trend is your friend, right? So, um, I thought the market was going to top a long time ago, like a year and a half, two years ago, and it's still going up. So, every time it turns a new trend higher, we jump back in and we have to ride it up no matter how much I like it or not. And on in all this observation, it seems like when there's a big flush out, like you said, a big reset, the path going forward is pretty clear, or at least pretty simple to evaluate. When things look frothy, then it becomes a more complicated emotional question. Do I ride the froth and risk getting wiped out or do I stay out and risk FOMO? And I don't know how to answer that. Not many people do. And that's the mental angst that people have amongst themselves. How would you go about analyzing that question? >> Yeah, you see the bottom line is you need a strategy. And the strategy that I use on the time frames I use because we have about 5 to 12 trades a year. We can play the froth. A lot of these these pushes to the upside. We catch these new rallies in the indices to to new all-time highs and we're we're playing these little frothy pushes is what they are. But we have a short enough time frame that when it rolls over, we're out very quickly. So, we we're still taking advantage of these little waves and these pushes to all-time highs, but then we quickly exit when things show weakness. It's not easy. There's no doubt. It's a it's a constant fear. It's like fear that the trade is going to fail. It's fear the market's going to crash. fear that, you know, if I don't get in, you're gonna miss out and it's going to have a huge rally. And that's where the whole strategy comes into play. It's just to just know like we have a strategy that kind of plays in this window of it really doesn't matter what happens. We just we just play these new trends that start and we exit as they come to an end and that's it. I mean, it's no matter what, even with strategies, you still have a lot of emotions. It's still very emotional to enter trades to to sit in trades because you hear bad news or things like that, but you have to follow the market. And that's the biggest thing. And I hear this from members all the time. Uh we have a group of members that like skip trades. They're like, I don't like this one. I'm going to skip this one. And of course, those are the trades that when a group of people skip them are usually the best trades. And the ones they want to get in are usually the ones where they're like they feel really strongly about. And it's their emotions are doing the exact opposite. So, you really just have to follow the strategy. Trade every wave to the upside if it has strength. And as soon as it shows no more strength, uh, like it's weakened, you got to get out. And you just have to rinse and repeat. And you're going to catch some huge wins. You're going to avoid some massive losses. And you're going to have to just move in and out a few times. You're going to have some small losing trades when the market just chops around. But that's the game is you have to take advantage of every rally. Make sure you avoid the crashes. And in between, you're going to take some losing trades when things don't move quick enough in one direction. >> Well, like I said, follow Chris. Links down below to learn more. So, uh, [snorts] yeah, we'll see you next time. Chris, tell us a little bit more about where we can find you before we close off. >> Uh, yeah. So, if you want to follow my work, you can follow me on YouTube. The Technical Traders is my channel, or go to my website, thetechnicaltraders.com. And I manage my own portfolio. I share exactly my daily analysis, my video of what I think is happening in all my positions. We literally just trade the markets together and I I trade ETFs 5 to 12 trades a year. Very simple to manage your portfolio and um that's what I do. >> Okay. Thank you very much, Chris. Links down below. Follow Chris and don't forget to like and subscribe to this channel. Take care. We'll see you next time, Chris. >> Thanks. Take care. >> Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.