Market To Pullback By May, Then Race To New Summer Highs | Mark Newton @Fundstrat_Direct

Summary

• Market Outlook: A sharp V-shaped rally has turned trends bullish; a 3–5% pullback into May is likely before a stronger move into late July/mid-August, with the year ending higher but choppy.
• Technology Outperformance: Tech is expected to lead over the next 3 months, with semiconductors showing renewed strength; software may be choppy near term while longer-term names like Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL) remain attractive.
• Semiconductors: Memory and optical names led resilience, with strong earnings (e.g., Micron) lifting broader tech; the sub-industry is positioned well as breadth and momentum improve.
• Energy Pullback: Crude likely retreats further (potentially sub-$60) as the Strait reopens; energy consolidates near term before becoming attractive again, with nuclear respected and European natural gas (TTF) preferred over Henry Hub.
• Precious Metals: Expect a dip in May followed by a push to new highs into fall across gold, silver, and copper; metals may peak by fall as real rates rise, suggesting a later multi-year consolidation.
• Agricultural Commodities: Bullish cycle for grains and ags, with potential supply shocks supporting upside; ag and fertilizer equities such as Bunge (BG) and CF Industries (CF) could benefit.
• Rates and Fed: Potential Warsh-led policy shift could steepen the curve and push long yields higher; 10-year above ~4.6% risks a move toward 5%, a key headwind to watch for equities and housing.
• Crypto: Bitcoin likely falls toward ~52k into May before a tradable rebound; investors may consider buying dips while expecting continued volatility and a potential autumn retest.

Transcript

Whenever you get these V-shape type moves, you know, it's always tricky. It's very difficult to make money. People normally try to buy dips for a certain period of time and then they throw in the towel and start to sell and as fear reaches extremes, that's normally when we start to rally and very few people want to to buy into the rallies. They they start selling into them. Welcome to ThoughtFoMoney. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart. When today's guest was back on this program in January, he predicted that stocks would soon experience a 10% correction, that the precious metals would experience a big pullback, and that oil had found a bottom. Well, he was right. And this was before the war with Iran broke out. So, how has the war impacted his outlook for the coming quarter? To find out, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at market research firm Fundstrat, where he works with its founder, Tom Lee. Mark, thanks so much for joining us today. My pleasure. Thanks for having me back, Adam. Good to see you. Well, thanks, Mark. It's pleasure to have you back and folks have really enjoyed your quarterly outlooks, Mark, so I'm sure this will be no exception. Folks are going to love this one. I do [clears throat] just want to underscore the props I gave you there in the intro. >> [clears throat] >> Now, you didn't know that we were Well, to my knowledge, you didn't know that we were going to go to war with Iran and a month after we talked, but all the trends that you you thought were in place and were going to happen pretty much happened. Mhm. It's been a remarkable time. We've had, you know, I guess not dissimilar to last year, an early spring sell-off that caught a lot of people off guard for different reasons and now just a remarkable snapback rally. You know, we've been up 3% for each of the last 3 weeks, quite unusual, up 12% now in the last 14 trading days. So, you know, that kind of thing doesn't happen quite that often. Um I I think it's the most violent rally, whatever you want to say, since the '80s. Did I hear that? I think the quickness with which we've recovered certainly has set some records. I think it's it's never happened in 11 days where the market's gone from a 100-day low to a 200-day high. I think the next closest was October of 2014, but but certainly one for the record books and and pushing, you know, aggressively back to new all-time highs. All right. So, obviously this is happening. Um Well, why don't we start with this? Why is it happening? I mean, obviously one explanation this is that the war is or the markets are basically pricing in a near-term end to this war. Um Uh oil kind of doing the same? I mean, it's down from its its all-time from from its highs from a few weeks back. On the day we're talking, it's up a couple percent. It's kind of hovering around Brent crude futures are hovering around 90. So, it's it's it's not I don't know. Oil doesn't seem to be as sanguine about the war as the markets, I think, but you tell me. Look, I think the market gave us a couple of clear indications back in late March that it could start to stabilize and turn higher that maybe many investors did not quickly catch on to. For those that use technicals, we did see a meaningful amount of breadth improvement, which really started right around mid-March, where you look at things like the percentage of stocks above their 20-day moving average and 50 really started to jump pretty substantially and that was interesting and something that the broader you know, S&P really didn't showcase properly if you're looking at the markets, which continued to drop, but yet, you know, far fewer stocks were hitting new lows and that's almost always something that happens when markets are approaching a bottom. The same thing happens, by the way, when you're approaching a top and we also saw that in the middle part of January, where fewer and fewer stocks were participating and starting to turn down. Mhm. So, uh you know, the other is that we started to see some real evidence of defensive sectors really starting to deteriorate and and sectors like consumer staples, which, according to my work, you know, were one of the few things that actually did show the potential for a sell-off just based on, you know, risk-off, risk-on type positioning. When the defensive sectors really start to gain in strength, that's normally a time when, you know, you have to be a little bit more cautious or expect you can see a possible trend break and and we saw exactly the opposite, honestly, in in March. We saw consumer staples go straight down. You know, so those were a couple of things, but but interestingly enough, you know, we never really truly saw markets get all that oversold. We also really didn't see any true capitulation like what I normally like to see, with an excessive amount of downside volume. Uh that never happened. So, you know, the fact that markets can all of a sudden just uh stabilize and turn higher, it had to do specifically with the fact that you know, crude oil, which was at $115, started to rapidly decline and and I think that is something investors need to pay attention to, cross-asset type analysis. When you get things that have coincided with market weakness, which finally start to go the other way, specifically dollar moving up, crude moving up, rates, honestly, pushing higher and all those things started to back off. That was a a really, you know, interesting thing and and honestly coincided with a period where the markets were forward-looking and expecting that we would see some type of a truce and and you know, we know that that, of course, is is honestly something that can't happen very quickly. Um many are estimating that the conflict likely will continue until probably September, October, but it doesn't mean that the street can't be reopened and I think the market had a lot of confidence in the speed and quickness to which we went in and sort of accomplished uh some of the goals that were attempted and and you know, it's an election year. I have to say that that the administration cannot afford to have crude oil at $100 heading into driving season. It would just be uh devastating uh really to the chances that the GOP will certainly lose the house if things don't improve dramatically and if that happens, then Trump is going to be a lame duck in his final 2 years. So, we know that from a political standpoint, it's essential to figure out an exit ramp and I think that uh the market at least was was sniffing out the possibility of of yet again you know, the negotiation style of being probably a little bit harsh initially, but then starting to back off and that the market clearly um you know, with the strength in technology and the rebound that we've seen, you know, has been totally focused on earnings and the fact that earnings have been good. The economy, honestly, has held up I think much better than many people expected. So, those were a couple of reasons, but whenever you get these V-shape type moves, um you know, it's always tricky. It's very difficult to make money. People normally try to buy dips for a certain period of time and then they throw in the towel and start to sell and as fear reaches extremes, that's normally when we start to rally and very few people want to to buy into the rallies. They they start selling into them and so, um you know, most trend followers get caught off guard. We saw commodity trading advisors, you know, had about 85 billion dollars that they had to rapidly reverse and start to buy into this market as it started to rise. So, that was, you know, initially something which might have been seen by many as short covering, but eventually it turned into real buying and we saw a very meaningful snapback in in technology, which had been lagging for largely the last 6 to 8 months. I mean, many of the MAG 7 have been under a lot of pressure. So, so it's encouraging when a a healthy slug of what really is powering the earnings environment starts to rebound and and I think that uh >> [sighs] >> you know, here we are. New highs for for many of the indices, not only here, but also globally and and that's also something that investors need to pay attention to is that it's not just a US phenomenon that we're seeing the stocks 50 uh you know, Euro Stoxx 50 and the Stoxx 600 in Europe, as well as the Nikkei and other indices that are pushing back to new highs. Those normally aren't things that happen if you're nearing a recession. So, you know, my my my big takeaway here is that history shows us that when you enter big geopolitical conflicts, that normally uh stock market tends to bottom in a very short period of time after they've begun and typically it's about 3 to 4 weeks. Um we even look back towards World War II and know that markets, of course, bottomed very early on in 1942 and started to turn meaningfully higher throughout the conflict. So, always tricky to to make too much of uh exogenous type events. Um markets tend to catch up and understand very quickly that uh how to price risk and and what could happen. And I think in this case, uh you know, rebounded rebounded very sharply for reasons that probably many people were unaware of why they should have rebounded. Okay, so I got a ton of questions here for you, Mark, um but let's let's start with that one. Um >> [clears throat] >> So, um my question my question for you that I'm going to I'm going to add a little bit to it um is is how much do you trust this rally? You know, you're you're a technology you're a technical analysis guy, so you don't really take the macro much um into your decision-making at the end of the day. You're just looking at what the market is telling you. You're nodding as I'm saying all this. I I know you you look at the macro space, but but you you let your decisions be based upon what you're the TA is telling you. Um so, for the people So, I'd like you to answer that question, but in answering it um the people who are concerned, and there're probably a lot watching this video right now, who are thinking um Okay, even if this war comes to a conclusion soon, there's been a shock to the global economy, right? We've had this oil price shock. We have had compromised supply chains. Um There are delays of important um commodities out there, uh not just oil and gas, but also helium and fertilizers and things like that. Um and so, they're saying, "Look, this is going to be a net negative to the economy even if it ends now." Um and of course, that net negative will just get worse the longer this war continues here. But, um there are a lot of people who are thinking, "Okay, so you know, there's there's already some demand destruction that's gone on even if the war ends soon, and and we're going to have to pay that price at some point, whether that's in lower earnings for Q2 or um supply shortages down the road. I'm hearing, you know, concerns about food shortages in the fall." Um Do you have those concerns, or or you saying that that uh the market is basically saying, "Ah, it's really not going to be that bad, folks." Uh to your earlier point, you know, I I don't have analytical data that that tells me that all those concerns are immediately manifesting in the market. If if the if the market rally happened and it shocked people, uh the most important lesson that I ever learned from technical analysis was that uh it's always important to understand that the market's right. Not that we think that oh, the market's wrong and it doesn't understand and I'm right to have maybe uh emotional but correct reasons on thinking something could go wrong. It's more about um you know, you have to adjust your your your risk parameters when things catch you off guard and understand that uh the earnings picture is good. It's picking up. I mean, fundamental analysts have been raising uh earnings revisions uh earnings revisions are going higher, and and honestly, the amount of defense spending is helping to juice the economy. We also know that AI is a very deflationary effect and and helping productivity to such extent that uh the Fed potentially could afford to cut rates and not really have that be inflationary. So, the bottom line is those aren't things that I use to make decisions, okay? You noted in the beginning, I'm I'm a technical analyst. I I look at things like breadth and momentum, and and those have improved markedly in in the last uh few weeks, and and it doesn't pay to say, "Well, the market's up 12%. It's definitely wrong." Uh the cycles were something I looked at early on to understand that we were going to be in a time when markets could in fact decline, and my forecast last December, which I relayed with you, was that we would likely see a peak in the latter part of February that would fall into April and or May and then bottom and turn higher into the fall. And I'm standing by those comments. I think the market has made a definitive bottom. That's not to say that the market is a bit over its skis a bit at this point, that we've gotten a bit ahead of itself. Um I do suspect that we, you know, potentially give back probably 3 to 5% of the 12% maybe that we have done. So, that likely could happen between now and the middle part of May if what I'm thinking is correct. Uh always tricky to you know, when the market's moving this this fast to say, "Well, I'm just going to go against it." It's it's rarely correct to fight trends. The trend has turned very bullish, and you really have to respect that until you see proper warnings as to why that's that's not correct, and that's just my own discipline. So, uh you know, the breadth has improved, the momentum has improved. Sentiment certainly hasn't improved uh to your point. Uh you make a lot of great points. I think there's a lot of uh legitimate concern about what's happening and and the implications of of how that can affect the economy, but we know that this year is a midterm election year. It it it Before the year started, it was set upon as being a year that could be very choppy, not a year that was going to be straight up or straight down, and I think we're already seeing evidence that, you know, we saw a 9% correction and now an immediate pushback to new highs. A lot of sectors arguably have not participated in that move to the extent that I would like to see. We only have one of the 11 equally weighted sectors sector ETFs back at new all-time highs, and that's technology. So, other areas like uh you know, discretionary and industrials are still to some extent lagging. I would mention that, you know, it is important to see financials and uh discretionary and industrials have good movement, um and I think that has happened to the extent that we haven't really seen since last summer. So, the bottom line is that when you look at things like seasonality, uh when you look at cycles, when you look at sentiment, when you look at uh pure technical uh structure and and breadth and momentum and what's driving the market, uh it it it doesn't make me want to immediately jump on the other side based on reasons that I have no way of calculating as to whether how they're going to affect the economy or how they're going to affect earnings. They just These are all you know, it's logical in any market to say, "Well, what if this goes wrong and what if that goes wrong?" But but you know, the path has been set, and regardless of what we think of how long this can last, uh and I think it probably does last till September, October. I don't think it's over immediately, but I also think that three months of the straight being closed can lead to to certainly uh to global uh recession, and that would be something to really pay attention to if and when they can't figure out a proper exit ramp and a way that would reopen the straight. So, you know, if I have to make a geopolitical guess, I say the conflict lasts another, you know, five or six months. However, I I sense that there will be some agreements that will temporarily open uh the straight uh and and the real tricky part is this fog of war where you don't really know what to believe on on either side, and that's part part of proper negotiation with these conflicts, and and it always is tricky to to understand if what you're being told is is the truth. Um But, the bottom line is you have to trust the market, and and the market has uh completely um you know, priced out now any chance of a rate cut this year. We'll see if that is true or not. And we can talk more about the Fed incoming uh potential Fed governor. But, um you know, the market uh the situation with regards to things that that cause markets maybe to have a certain amount of longevity in their movement uh seem to be on the right track, and and that's the economy and that's earnings, and uh the technical indicators have largely you know, breadth is at its highest level we've seen in the last couple years with regards to, you know, some of the Russell 3000 data that look at just broader base gauges of uh of of breadth that have been pretty impressive. Now, we we didn't truly get the breadth thrust that I think a lot of people were hoping for, these big 90% up days where all the volume is on the upside, and that happened last year in April, of course, but that also followed a 20% decline, not a 9% decline. So, there was a lot about this little pullback, if you want to call it that, that that really fit in with sort of a garden variety correction uh and and very similar to last year, was resolved by a V-shape recovery in a way that I think is pretty convincing uh if you look at past examples in history of when these kind of things have happened. Like, what happens to markets when they go up 3% each of the last three weeks? Well, historically, the record is very very bullish over the next three to six months. They don't go straight down, and and that's obviously ignoring everything that's happening in the Middle East, but to to the same point, um you know, if the fundamentals and the technicals are both pointing uh positively, then I will take that nine times out of 10 versus, you know, thinking that maybe there's some other narrative that's going to cause a big sell-off or a big recession in ways that I don't understand and really can't quantitatively measure. Okay. Let me let me make sure I've taken accurate notes here. >> [clears throat] >> Um so, again, you look at, you know, the real-time market action, but you look at cycles, as you've said, and when we were talking in January, your cycle analysis led you to believe that the markets were going to go through a correction. Um and then I mean, kind of chop around to sort of what I what what I took from it um through the summer and then um you know, may maybe start to pick back up in the fall if I remember correctly from last time. I think you were thinking October back then. Um if I heard you correctly this time, I think you are expecting kind of the same thing still. We we we've had the correction now. Um You think we you know, your your your tone is definitely net bullish, but I don't get the sense that you're projecting the markets to just zoom higher from here um over the summer. In fact, I think you said you could see the market kind of giving up about 3 to 5% um by by May or so. And I and I think you I think I I think I heard you say you're still expecting fall to be sort of an inflection point where things pick back up higher. Am I correct in that summary? The fall, things could pick back up higher if and when we sell off from the period of August into October, November near the midterms. Um All right. Let me Let me just make sure. So, we we have the 3 to 5% correction around Mayish and I know you're using a rough Yep. projection here. And then you expect it to get even weaker into the end of the summer before picking back up. >> No, I expect the markets are going to rally really into the latter part of July, probably mid-August. I think it's actually going to be a pretty decent rally. So, uh you know, it's tricky because the beginning of the year I thought we would get to 7,300 and that included a 15 to 20% decline this year. Yeah. Well, we've had nine and now we're you know, back at new highs. So, the risk reward is you know, it it for me it's probably not as favorable over the next 3 to 5 weeks, but I think that generally markets can press higher to that 7,300 level and uh if if I want to bet on the market going down again, I need to see several things. I need to see breath really starting to dry up materially and that means far far fewer stocks hitting new highs and things starting to roll over and I need to I'll tell you the biggest risk in my technical lens of what I'm seeing is that long rates start to go up uh dramatically based on either signs of growth or signs of inflation coming back or signs of incoming Chair Warsh's uh potential and I'll say in the in the event that he's confirmed, uh if they eliminate forward guidance and they don't care about the dot plot, that can raise the risk premia in fixed income and honestly, he's got a tricky job in terms of trying to not only implement quantitative tightening, but also his view is that AI has been so revolutionary that uh they could in fact drop rates and that it wouldn't be all that inflationary. So, you know, that duality of trying to be a monetary dove, but a sort of fiscal hawk and and and cut the balance sheet likely is going to lead the yield curve to steepen, not flatten. So, it means long rates go up. So, if we if we see the 10-year get above 460, then that means we probably can get to 5% and if rates go up, then that's to your point, is going to be problematic for the economy, but but it also is not going to be something that happens right away. And so, I I think that uh you know, my own time frame for real estate is that we peak this or next year and pull back into probably 2028 2029 and that should be a cyclical long-term low for the real estate market. Um and this is based on cycles that have stood true for the last 100 years. So, you know, part of what drives that is is in in my thinking is I'm jumping around here a bit, but home ownership and basically housing is largely the one thing that is very very crucial to the economy. And if we start to see long rates move higher in a way that they cannot get them to uh uh to move down quick enough when home prices are already elevated and and then interest rates start to skyrocket, then uh yeah, that's going to have an eventual problem uh for the economy, but you know, I see this year as being uh you know, choppy, but but look, there's a lot of reasons to be optimistic based on what's happened over the last month, specifically with regards to the stock market, not what's happening in the the Middle East, Mr. All right. I want to ask you about Warsh in a sec, but um so, beginning of the year you had your 7,300 S&P price target. Um is that is that sort of still your target for the end of the year or do you have a different one at this point? Yeah, very tricky. I don't view those as being uh something that add a lot of value for people. Uh on honestly, if I had to give people something that I thought might be a better sticking point as to my views is that this year is going to be a choppy year uh full of both declines and also big sharp advances and and but I think the market ends higher. So, 7,300 was my target. I'm not willing to immediately raise it substantially based on what's happened in the last month. I think that's uh you know, honestly, a lot of it's going to depend on really what happens in uh between August and October. And if we do start to pull back there, then I could probably adjust it at that time if I felt like we would go meaningfully higher. Uh the the biggest time investors want to concentrate on is is any sort of weakness that happens into the midterm elections because that's normally the best time during the entire 4-year cycle, the presidential cycle that it's [snorts] good to buy stocks. So, >> Okay. So, um you know, 7,300 is not that far from where we are right now. >> No, it it doesn't mean that you that I Look, so it's important how you use that information. Many people say, "Well, the risk reward is so poor, so I might as well just be out of the market or short or whatever based on all my concerns." And you know, the the economy is is and the the the earning situation is is very very good. So, trends did not deteriorate meaningfully enough to turn this into a bear market or a bear tape. And if I had to give one piece of information as to how long-term trend followers can watch the market who do not use technical analysis, it's that you just have to keep an eye on the 10-month moving average. And when the S&P is above it, then you're long. When it's below it, then you're cautionary. If the 10-month starts to turn down and the S&P is below it, then that's the time you're absolutely out of the market. And if you look back over the last even the last 50 years, let's look at the period from 2000 to 2003 and I can give you charts to support all this, but uh the S&P turned down in you know, March 24th of 2000 with the Dow uh you know, the 10-month turned down and it was down for about 1/2 3 years and it remained lower. And the same thing happened from 2007 to 2009. And even from 2021 to 2022, uh we had a brief period where the S&P was under that. Um now, back in February, March, it did get under the 10-month, but the 10-month never turned down and now it's right back above. So, these are things where you know, you have to obey long-term trends. They're they're really what help you to make money and stay with the market in times of fear and uncertainty, which is precisely where we are now, at least with regards to uncertainty. And I think that uh you know, if if trends start to fall meaningfully, then it's right to pay attention to that, but otherwise uh you really really have to stick with what is is happening and uh and not be quick to dismiss it or say that the market's wrong and it doesn't understand that you know, most times, nine times out of 10, it'll be the investor that's wrong and that needs to readjust his own way of looking at things. All right. So, one of the things I'm taking and you tell me if this is an intelligent thing to take or not from what you're saying is as [clears throat] long as the S&P is remaining above the 10-month moving average, um given your expectations of chop from here, it sounds like, you know, a a DIY investor who doesn't like want to be like a day trader uh in terms of reacting all the time, maybe a good rule of thumb here would be um maybe hold a little more cash than normal. Um you know, still remain invested, but hold some cash stores as dry powder so that when there are drops um in the coming months, you can deploy at the low. Or you you you can do you can deploy during the dips and then ride things back up, you know, use that volatility to your advantage. Um what's your reaction to that? I I believe that everybody's got a different time frame for investment. Everybody has a different risk tolerance. Um if I told you that my key takeaway was that we're not going into recession and I expect the stocks are going to finish higher than where they are right now by the end of the year, But it's going to be choppy. It's going to be choppy, sure. So, look, I after a a 12% move in 2 weeks, 3 weeks, I would say it's always proper to probably have some cash to buy dips, but that's individual philosophy as to how you manage your own money and how you uh I I I I would say that the market having pushed higher makes me more uh encouraged about the immediate term than if it was near its lows. And as a trend follower, I have to respect strength and um I'm more emboldened about what should happen between now and August, I guess, because of what's happened. So, do you want to hold more cash if the S&P is going to 7,300? I don't know. I I think uh yeah, I'd love to be able to buy dips. I think a lot of people missed out on on uh the sharp rally and and um you know, always proper to have cash handy for for opportunity. So, to some extent I agree with that. I guess it's all in the narrative and the way you frame it. Like does that, you know, like this shouldn't be seen as oh Mark Newton thinks you need to have a bunch of money in cash. You know, it's it's more about the markets have improved dramatically and you need to respect what the markets told you. Uh certainly if if we pull back to 68 6900 I'd love to participate. Sure, love love to buy dips and uh you know, I think we probably do get that into May. Uh if not, then it's going to happen into June. But I think June in general into the summer will be actually quite good. So, I'm pretty strong. Yeah. Yeah, I I think that the market we'll see what happens with with Warsh and we can talk about that. But but if he's going to be confirmed and the market gets comfortable with his communication style, then uh that's going to set the market at ease in a way that that maybe right now it's not. Okay. All right, and you know, you did my job for me which is to say look, none of this is personal financial advice and everybody has their own, you know, unique situations and of course that's why I always am um referring people who want some help to um our endorsed financial advisors. But we do have a lot of DIY people that that watch this and um I I I I was making that putting that idea out there because really more more in contrast to the I don't hear you saying hey, the market's not going to go up that much this year and it's going to be volatile. So, everybody should just sit in cash um and ride it out. You seem to say that, you know, there's still going to be some opportunity and there was a net bullish bias to the market and you think the summer is actually going to be pretty good after the the dip you expect beforehand. Um okay, so let's get to Warsh. Um Uh now [sighs and gasps] I I used to think that Powell's um tenure ended in June, but is it sooner or is it actually next month that that it ends? My understanding is that it's mid-May, but but I'm not an economist and it's not my skill set. >> Yeah, and I but I think that's what I heard too. But it's com- but it's coming up in in the spring. >> up, yeah. Yeah. And presuming that Warsh gets approved, right? And there's so much hyper-partisanship uh these days that might take a while and Powell has said hey, I'll stick around for as long as you it takes to fill that seat. Um >> [clears throat] >> but it seems, you know, Warsh has been approved before to the Fed and and and it seems like he'll get approved this time around. Um I I guess first and foremost, just from your study of the Fed and and past Fed chairs and what you personally would like to see there, what do you think about Warsh? Is he the right guy for the job at this time? He strikes me as somebody that that at least he's he's convinced me that he likely will be independent. I I think that's really the key for the Fed is to have somebody that isn't independent. I I respect his views on trying to fight uh inflation and and honestly take down the balance sheet. I think that's certainly a positive. Um I I don't know that I have as much respect for the institution of the Federal Reserve just given that the data that we continue to look at is so backward looking and and really any of the Fed's tools and and what they do tend to have this long effect before they even take place and I I just think that in this day >> sorry to interrupt, but you can you can include this in your answer, but I don't think Warsh has a, you know, complete respect for the institution either, right? I mean, he's kind of coming in as a little bit of a new sheriff who's going to clean things up, right? I think that's right. My understanding is that he wants to uh eliminate forward guidance and if we get rid of the dot plots, then that can certainly shake up the bond market a bit. It would certainly create a little bit more volatility. Yeah. Um all right, and uh uh you you talked about some things that could push the uh the high the the the um far end of the yield curve up going forward. Um do you think that's baked in the cake given what you imagine Warsh to do or um are you you more like like we're just going to take a take and wait and see approach? Uh well, the bond market certainly hasn't suggested at all that it's baked into the cake. I mean, rates have fallen over the last couple months. So, at current levels um I mean, rates are rising today even with the the uh with the hints of of his comments on forward guidance. And so, you know, there's going to be an immense amount of supply that probably has to hit the bond market and who's going to absorb that? And and that's really the the key. I think rates do have to go higher. You know, this is part of a a 6-year cycle for the bond market. So, despite the best intention of getting uh affordability back, I just don't sense I sense that the market probably has other things in mind. So, yeah, we'll we'll see the extent to which um you know, yields start to rise on the back end. That's really my my my thinking of what could happen between now and October and November. So, if it happens very dramatically and we start to really accelerate, then then certainly the equity market would be spooked and and if it that that happens, 460 is a big level for the 10-year Treasury based on just triangle type technical resistance and if that is exceeded, then we likely are going to make a bee line for over 5%. So, that's something that uh you know, market market has to understand and become comfortable with that potentially equities can rise even with a a rising uh long-term yield. Um and we'll see the extent to which they can affect QT and and maybe try to cut the balance sheet size in a way that doesn't disrupt liquidity too much and and you know, we know that generally it's the liquidity of of keeping the balance sheet large that it's sort of fueled a lot of this move, but but I don't sense that it's going to be rapidly taken down. So, I I think it's a delicate balance, honestly. I I'm not an economist by trade, but I I do understand sort of what their goal is and it's very tricky and it certainly goes against the the wishes of the administration or I guess any administration. I mean, uh you know, Nixon had this same feud with his Fed chair and you know, demanded they they cut rates and and in a way, you know, they all everybody wants every president wants rates to be lower of course during their term to make things affordable, but it doesn't always work out that way. Okay, so you said that the market is not pricing in any rate cuts uh anymore. Right. >> Um now Warsh has said in terms of policy, he would prefer to work with rates versus the balance sheet and you've said that that, you know, he's coming in with the intent to continue to shrink the balance sheet and that'll probably be done I imagine just by roll offs. Um but you said they got to be careful, you know, not to constrict liquidity too fast. So, he'll be judicious about it. Um now [clears throat] it's interesting, so everybody just sort of assumed that Trump was going to put in, you know, a total patsy. Right? A total yes man. Warsh amongst the the candidates sort of seemed to be the most independent-minded one, which is which is interesting and and you can, you know, maybe give Trump props for that or maybe you can be suspicious and think well, they've arranged something different and and and Warsh is just going to, you know, fold like a like a cheap suit. I guess TBD on this. Now, Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, was a big advocate for Warsh and he actually led the the search committee for the replacement, right? So, you got to imagine Bessent and Warsh have had a ton of conversations about hey, this is going to be the game plan when you get in there. And uh administration really wants to bring its borrowing costs down. Um it has been doing so by continuing Janet Yellen's uh program of buying on the short end or sorry, um uh uh sorry, lending on the short end or issuing much more short-term Treasuries than long-term Treasuries. It's probably going to continue and if if if Warsh is more willing to work with rates than with with um uh the balance sheet, maybe that makes sense then, right? You know, he'll he'll maybe maybe push rates on the short end lower and that'll that'll help Bessent. Do you expect there's some sort of, you know, pre-planned agreement like that going into this? I I I agree. Or or sorry to interrupt, but just to add or like an operation twist. Like hey, Kevin, if if if we start getting near 4.6, you guys got to step in on the long end to to bring that down. Supply and demand works in funny ways. I mean, ask the BOJ how intervention has gone there. It's always tricky to try to think you can do things to bring rates down and it doesn't always work as as easily. Uh yeah, I I think that you're right. I I sense that they're going to avoid long-term issuance and and want to steer towards shorter term um you know, we'll have to see how the data shakes out. Honestly, I I just I don't, you know, pretend to have uh a great understanding of of how anything that they do would have an immediate effect. It's just that the lag time of of really most decisions uh tends to be something that most should just not concentrate on, you know, concentrate on the stock market and uh technicals and earnings more so than than Fed policy. I just don't think it, you know, it's really what the market's priced in that people need to be concentrating on. I assume that that'll change as Warsh gets uh if when he gets confirmed and we start to hear more of what type of a poll he has with others within the committee and what he truly wants and how uh how quickly that can happen. But my own view is that that's going to cause the bond market, at least on the long end, yields will probably rise. Okay. All right, great. And I want to get specific with you in a couple other asset classes, but bond yields you think um largely will rise. So that gives a good sense of what you think is going to happen to bond prices over the the rest of the year, at least their trajectory. Um and of course that's lower bond prices as yields go up. Right. Um okay. Uh right before I get to some of these asset classes, let me just ask you this question. Um so again, you're a technologist, right? You look at trends, you look at what the market's saying. What is it how challenging is it to to practice that in an environment like now where there's there's so many so much potential for non-market developments to kind of change the game, right? An example could be you and I recording this the day that the of the second round of peace talks are supposed to be happening in Islamabad, Pakistan. We still don't know if they're running it at this point if they're going to show up. >> Right. Um but but it could go really poorly, right? And you know, Trump could could make good on his pledge to okay, you know, he didn't sign a piece of paper and so therefore it's what do you call it? Bridges and power plants day. And you know, all of a sudden things in the war just you know, dramatically escalate from here, right? Um and let's hope this doesn't happen. But if of course the worry is that at some point if Iran feels desperate enough, it kind of triggers its dead man switch and it just starts blowing up all the infrastructure of all the other Gulf countries and stuff like that, right? Hopefully that didn't happen, but that's something that could totally change the current market expectations almost overnight. So how challenging is it to be relying on market technicals in an environment where a development like I just described could could completely change everything? I don't want to come off as as self-righteous or or sort of uh you know, look down on any sort of discipline, but but for those that have taken the time to study technical analysis, you realize that the trends don't change overnight as rapidly as maybe what people think. Uh long-term trends are very important. They're upward sloping. We did have a short-term trend that was down uh and now has started to turn back up. Um if something changes dramatically, then that is almost always seen in the price first and foremost. My own my own thinking is that the upside is probably going to be a little bit limited in the short run just given the move we've made in that. So I'm thinking that we're close to a time when we start to probably retrace and consolidate a bit. But uh yeah, if if whatever news comes out, if it changes the the the price, then that's something that I have an ability to look at and analyze and see and interpret probably a little bit easier than people that do not look at price action at all and are looking at fundamentals who always go to bed upset thinking that things are either far too overbought and overpriced or far too underbought and and oversold and and underpriced versus what they want. And and that's just what makes the world go round. My tools tend to fortunately keep me on top of trends on where they're moving and what to expect. That doesn't matter it doesn't mean you're you'll always be right if you have a short-term perspective, but that's how you make and or save money by risk management is by adapting if things start to go differently than what the trends say and you look at all the different pieces of information and and make uh you know, use that to make the highest probability forecast that you can at the moment. And so it's it's served me it's served me right. Uh you know, I I try not to let wars and Fed policy and even economic data influence my decisions one iota. I mean they're there and if I see something that'll reinforce what I'm seeing, then I I choose to use it, but I never dig in my heels to say that this is what needs to happen and this is a concern and the market's not seeing it and and that's almost always the incorrect way. You know, you have to look at take the blindfold off and utilize technical analysis that will honestly you know, keep you on the right side of the road nine times out of 10 and and and help you in terms of managing your own risk and and strip emotion out of the equation. I think it's uh hugely important for investors to to take advantage of. These these things aren't stochastic where they're all over the map and you don't know and oh the technicals aren't working and thing things are very methodical and and trends are very much in place up, down, and sideways and uh there are ways of analyzing it and and you know, making profitable forecasts and and you know, knowing to get out right away when those don't materialize and that's the whole name of the game is cutting your losses when you're wrong. And if you do that, then you can be wrong seven times out of 10 and still make a phenomenal amount of money because the times that you're right, you double and triple your position and you make your entire year and and I I famous guy by the name of Steve Cohen said that from SAC and now 0.72 that you know, it's it's not really a matter of uh you know, always wondering whether you're right or wrong. It it's always risk management that that rules the day and and not being afraid to uh push positions when you're right. And uh so that's Druckenmiller that said that part. Okay. Um well definitely very smart, very successful investors. Okay, so if we can, let's go into the lightning round about what your uh models uh your TA is telling you about certain asset classes. Um we talked about bond bond yields very generally. Um private credit is in the headlines a lot right now. Question for you is um what impact if any, do you expect private credit to have on the bond market over Let's just say the next quarter or two. Yeah, very tricky only because there's not a lot of ways that I know how to really quantitatively look at that. I mean I I do look at relationships between investment grade and junk bonds and I think that in general the response to the bond market has been quite tepid as to what is happening. I mean certainly parts of technology you started to see you know, some of the CDS went a little haywire for a minute, but in general when you look at things like you know, the options adjusted spread, the OAS or just the the ratio or the spread between junk and and investment grade. I mean to be 450 basis points above Treasuries is really not all that important. Almost every larger bear market has been usually steered by the bond market initially and what's happening with uh credit either going RE in some way or or you know, some type of distress and and that largely did not happen. This is a supply shock only and really nothing with regards to and and not to make light of the private credit woes, but I haven't seen it affect the bond market in ways that normally I would use to say this can be a problem. Okay. So um you're not seeing private credit right now as looking like a big threat. Obviously you can update that, but right now it's not keeping you up at night. That's right. Okay. Nothing by the way ever keeps me up at night, Adam. So you should know that. Oh, I'm very envious of you. >> [laughter] >> Um [clears throat] All right. Well, let's go to stocks cuz you talked about stocks generally. So you've given us your your your thoughts on the general market which are um positive. Um you know, you talked about certainly looks like the bottom the market bottomed. It's super you know, momentum's been really strong, breadth has been looking good. For all the reasons you mentioned, um you expect it to end higher this year um with a bit of a pullback coming in the next month or two, but then a pretty strong summer. All right. So that's sort of the general indices. Um are there sectors in there that you're particularly bullish about or particularly wary of right now? Yeah, I think the next 3 months has massive outperformance in technology, honestly, cuz it's underperformed for such a long period of time and and most fundamental guys would tell you that that many tech stocks have become just outright cheap. So tech has begun Is this all tech? Uh is is it mostly the mag seven or is this also the software Well, look, obviously parts of the memory space and the optical they've they've remained at new highs and and many semis have snapped back in pretty resilient fashion. So yeah, it's more about that mag seven have gotten uh you know, back to very reasonable uh levels with regards to valuation and and obviously software software I would caution that it it's it's tricky to buy something down 20, 30, 40% and expect immediate mean reversion. That takes time. So it's normally a two steps forward, one step back type process and I think this will be no different. So I I completely support the idea of buying stocks like Microsoft and Oracle if you're going to hold them to 2028. Uh if you have a one or two month time frame, then you know, it could still be a little choppy to say the least. Uh so to get back, technology I like, industrials I like, financials I like. Those are my top three. Uh I don't care as much about discretionary that has begun to to move uh you know, rally a little bit, but I'm I'm less uh you know, keen on on putting really actionable money to work in uh in discretionary. What's what's bad is right now most of the defensive sectors are really being hard hit. So, utilities just in the last week or two has really started to show relative weakness. And so, maybe that would be sniffing out uh you know, long rates starting to to lift a little bit. I don't know, but groups like healthcare have been out of favor. I see healthcare is probably being the second to energy, probably the best of the defensive sectors. And then uh utilities, REITs, staples, telecom are are really uninvestable. Uh at least if you hope to outperform in the short run. Now, that could certainly change, but for the time being that's what the near-term sector trends are showing. If you're investing in healthcare, and parts of it are actually quite good, like biotechnology is phenomenal, but other areas like medtech and healthcare services and uh you know, pharma has taken a backseat to biotech. And I I wrote a little bit about that uh last night actually. So, Okay. Um you you mentioned earlier, by the way, this is super helpful. So, thank you. Um you mentioned earlier something that I've I've heard echoed by some other folks I've interviewed um this year that earnings estimates uh keep getting ratcheted up. And uh and they've they've been getting ratcheted up this year at a faster rate than going into this year. And that's through the war. Um so, the war definitely doesn't seem to be weighing on analysts' um optimism about the future here. And it seems to me like one of the benefits to the equity market moving on from here is that um it may get the tailwind of rising E, right? In the P/E ratio, right? Rising earnings estimates. Um but now you're saying here in the near term it might get a um some tailwinds from a rising P or the multiple, right? So, multiples got depressed over the past 2 months or so. Um now they're starting to recover while the E continues to grow. So, I mean, this is a pretty nice setup, it sounds like. I think the earnings have kicked off and have been much better than anticipated. Uh with regards to technology, you have seen uh companies like you know, Micron Technology and SanDisk in particular, the the earnings uh increase has been so dramatic with these that they have affected almost the entire technology sector. And a lot of it has been pretty concentrated, but it's still something that's moving higher and something that I think investors really want to pay attention to. So, yeah. >> Okay. Um and part of the reason why I asked this, too, is is you know, coming into the year the administration was saying, "Look, we did a lot of work last year. It's really going to start paying off. Golden age of America is going to kick off in earnest. You're all going to see it real soon. It's going to start with the tax the record tax refunds. Um And then we had the war happen and oil prices went up and everybody has been understandably very concerned. Um but I've talked like I recently just released a video with um the CEO of FreightWaves who, you know, tracks global transport. And when I talked to him in the end of last year, he was I mean, I thought he was going to put his head in the oven. I mean, he was really despondent about the what was going on in the industry. Now, he's singing a completely different tune. Says he's as bullish as ever been. Says that the industrial America's industrial economy and manufacturing economy are booming right now. He doesn't see that slowing down at all. Um the war, believe it or not, is actually not only not affecting it, but in some ways actually adding tailwinds to it. Um so, you know, I I my question for you just real quick here on the economy is what are your thoughts on the US economy this year? I think the economy will hold up. I I'm not an economist by trade, but I think that uh my my only worry is that long-term rates go up in a way that will uh really hurt um you know, certainly housing. You certainly feel that there is almost always a K-shaped economy that develops whenever you have true freedom in markets. And when you allow you know, in in terms of uh How do I describe How do I explain this the best way? I guess uh Yeah, look, in general, when you have a huge real estate boom like we've had in the stock market boom, certainly those on the uh the upper end will always prosper by that. Whereas those uh that do not own assets like that will not prosper. And it's proper to uh hear both sides of the equation and and not uh neglect any arguments on either side. Uh but I think that uh you know, I tend to be uh optimistic that we're not going into a recession and that that probably is not anything that will happen until 2028, 2029. And that's largely because I think real estate will be pulling back. And that's one of the main things I look at. Um We have to look at the potential of a grand deal being carved out with China. We haven't really talked about that. That could happen literally in a month. And and the fact that we've not only gone into the war and also went in and removed Maduro very quickly, a lot of that is uh due to uh you know, take make China come to the bargaining table. We need their rare earths and they have a very big need for energy as does most of Europe right now that is dependent in ways that uh they've never been before. So, the US definitely comes out ahead in in that uh department. You know, with our energy infrastructure and and uh onshoring manufacturing. I mean, those are certainly things that are positive. There's obviously negatives and we can It's whether you decide to to choose to harp on the negative or try to see the positive. You know, you look through the lens and there's certainly a lot of good things that are happening, but there's also things that are concern and and uh you know, can't be overlooked also. So, but I tend to be an optimist with regards to the economy and the stock market this year. So, I have to think that it won't be any major uh uh you know, below at this point. Okay. So, the reason I was kind of digging here is um again, it sounds like your general advice to the people who are concerned about what's going on right now, particularly with the war, is um take a beat. Like there's there's there's enough positive things going on um both with the markets and the economy that you expect markets to be higher by the end of the year despite having volatility. And you don't expect a recession this year. Now, obviously that could change if things, you know, really go south with the war and oil prices go higher for longer. I mean, all that stuff could eventually force you to change your opinion. But right now, based upon what you're looking at, um base case no recession, base case no bear market. I always think it's proper to separate uh investors' thoughts on any event that's happening from what's happening in the stock market. Those are two separate things. Investors would be wise to uh you know, put on put in the earplugs and uh you know, honestly not pay attention to what's happening because it rarely uh impacts the market in a way that uh emotionally it makes you feel like it should, okay? And so, that's always been the case since the beginning of time. Uh unless the market vastly underestimates what's happening and it's such a huge negative that uh there's a big shock and arguably that didn't really happen uh in a way that would affect the stock market this time around. So, I I sense that never wrong to be concerned about things in the world. I think it's great to talk about things and uh try to make them better. I I just think that most people would be wise not to uh always listen to the the news sources that that might try to paint a world of negativity when there's still a lot of things that are going on that are right in the world, you know? And a lot of things moving in the right direction. So, it's all depending on how you want to feel when you get out of bed in the morning. And some people choose to be happy and focus on the glass half full and others uh you know, say, "Well, this can be wrong and this can be wrong." And they're not wrong, but it's just you know, it How will those affect your portfolio? It's almost always proper to just really try to separate that from what's happening in the stock market. >> Yeah. No, you do a really good job of saying, "Be a Vulcan." And uh you know, your your approach is not only to be a Vulcan, but to be a Vulcan that basically reacts to what the data is telling you, you know, the data of your your technical analysis. And it seems real clear right now. You are positioned for optimism. Not raging optimism, but you're positioned for optimism versus pessimism. Well, the cycles can also tell us in advance as to what's happening, too. As you talked about earlier in the interview, I mean, a lot of my stuff said the market turns. That wasn't based on anything in the past. That was based on what could happen in the future. But energy gave us a very clear buy signal back in December as to what was going on. And crude oil started to lift for reasons that many didn't understand that when uh then the war finally started and it all made sense. But uh yeah. >> Do you Do you think that was sniffing out the war? Is that your opinion? Uh the extent of the move from the lows was very dramatic and happened uh at least about a month and a half ahead of when the conflict started. So, um I have my own reasons based on cycles that suggested crude oil would go up meaningfully this year. and and I think I shared those with you. If not, then I'm happy to share the cycle that I looked at, but it it pointed crude. I went overweight energy for the first time in years after being underweight and it's been negative and I guess one thing I didn't do was to overweight materials like Tom Lee did. So, to his credit, but I I most of my stuff did not show materials moving up as fast, but you know, both of them ended up moving in tandem. Now, energy is dropping, materials is still sort of holding up. So. Okay. But, I'm just going to ask my question one more time and then we'll move on. Cuz I do want to ask you specifically about where you think energy stocks are going from here. But, do you think that the Iran war was just coincident with the cycle that your your trend analysis was predicting? Or do you think it was actually causal? Um The cycle started because it was it it's somehow sniffed out the war. >> the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the you know, [snorts] there's an 84-year cycle of of war with regards to the United States that happened in 1942. It happened back in, you know, 1860 and happened in 1776. That's an 84-year return where it suggested the US could be involved in conflict and and here again it it materialized. So, it's not I'm not taking credit for that, but I study the cycles, I watch what's going on in crude and and these things happen and uh people are shocked, but honestly a lot of this stuff if you take the time to study history, you know, makes some sense. Okay. All right. Um so, you you said earlier when we were talking through stocks that um uh with that that energy may still have some life left in it, but um it was sort of an offhand reference. So, I'd like you to clarify. What what what what are you expecting from the energy sector? And and maybe if you want to parse it like, oh, I like nuclear, but I think gas is going to sell off or whatever, go for it. I I think that energy is still in the midst of a pretty uh violent short-term decline. I don't know if that's over yet. My own thinking is that crude probably gets down to under $60, which might shock people, but I think that crude has already fallen a good [snorts] amount and the street is not even open. And so, when it actually we do reach an agreement, I think we'll see that fall much further. Uh I do sense that's temporary. I think the oil market did, in fact, establish its uh an end to the bear market that lasted since, I guess, 2022. And so, I think this was the first big huge sharp move off the lows and now we're seeing the consolidation. So, when that's over, then I think energy will start to be attractive again for investments. It had such a huge lead over every other sector being up 30-plus percent on the year that it's natural to see it sort of give back a little and and you know, it it's it's sort of a a challenging sector in the short run. Yeah, I do respect the the nuclear end of that energy. I think uh you know, it it it it it's tricky. Parts of alternative energy still really aren't working all that well. Uh you know, it's going to take some time. Um I I natural gas I'm not as fond of, but except for, I guess, European natural gas, which I think is going to be very much in need by the fall to your earlier point. So, for those that want to buy gas type uh you know, I think that the TTF uh makes more sense than looking at Henry Hub for natural gas. Okay. Um and then precious metals. So, they've gone through a pretty big correction um particularly silver since we last talked. Um I think that was one of the easier calls to make cuz when you and I were talking, uh that was I mean, silver was like pushing 120. The price action had just gone vertical. Um is the sell-off over or do you expect continued weakness? What what are your what are your models saying? >> I'm viewing the metals honestly very similar to what I'm viewing the stock market and I think we'll probably have a dip in May and that's going to be something to buy into and I sense between May and the month of October that we can have a final push back to new highs in the metals across the board and that means not only precious metals, but honestly what's going on in copper is very impressive. We're seeing all types of bullish fundamental news coming out of China and that huge source of demand. I think copper is going to have a phenomenal year, but you know, copper has underperformed gold for so long. We need to see some evidence of that shifting. I like silver, I like gold between now and the fall, but it's not going to be an easy ride. I think gold initially probably will stop around 5,000 area and will need to consolidate, which means we probably give back about half of what we've done since the latter part of March. So, the metals largely bottomed near where stocks did and we had a pretty decent push up and now we're getting towards the first target, which I think probably happens within the next couple weeks. Thereafter, we sell off and you really want to buy dips. We still have a lot in place that favors the the metals. My only worry intermediate term is that we've just gotten very very overbought and we're also very late in the cycle and the stage. So, I sense that metals probably peak out for good uh probably this fall and probably have a another couple year bear market. And I think that happens as rates start to gradually uh go higher. And I think that in general real rates pushing up are going to be negative for precious metals and and uh we shall see. I think it's still with regards to Fed independence and the deficit and all of that's a huge driver and central bank buying. Some of that did, in fact, stop a little and slow. And so, uh you know, we finally got a big pullback and now we've had a first sort of rally off the lows and it's been a pretty decent rally. Enough that I sort of want to be invested, I think, over the next 6 months. But, thereafter I I think it's going to be a tricky uh I think it's going to be tricky for the metals. Okay. Um by the way, this detail in your forecast is just greatly appreciated. Um commodities uh but the softs like agriculture. Um any particular opinion? I I love agriculture commodities this year. Uh they're in a year when they should experience a uh a year very similar to 2020 and have a very big rise. So, yeah, I love Were you Were you thinking this before the war? Just to be clear. The cycles uh showed that this year should be a year of gains and that happened uh very much before the war. Uh yeah, so it's uh you know, anybody that looks at these same cycles will come to that conclusion. It just so happened that oh, by the way, now we have a reason. So, yeah, I think the the food is a a bigger area of concern that you can't just shut down right away. The longer the streets closed, it's going to be a real crisis, I think. And but it's uh you know, it's going to be good for the grains. It's going to be good for ag and fertilizer stocks. Like I added Bunge to my upticks list, which is a list I run of my technical favorites. And stocks like CF Industries and Bunge are great as well as the ags. They should do well. All right. And then the last sector um the last sector that's coming to my mind. Feel free to add any others you care a lot about. Um but Bitcoin. Do you track that? I do. >> Partner does, but Yeah, I I I came in at the beginning of the year not to take a victory lap. I think the year is obviously just getting going, but but I suggested Bitcoin to fall to 60,000. I now have sort of lowered that target. I think that uh the lows are not in for crypto and uh we are going to pull back to new lows likely into May. I think Bitcoin gets to 52,000. Um you know, it's tricky. We're in a 4-year bear market for uh you know, the cycle of the crypto winter, which happened in 2022, 2018, 2014. So, uh the sell-off didn't surprise me. It's more just the uh you know, I I still sense it there isn't realistic reasons why crypto should be rising right now. Uh the infrastructure doesn't seem to be in place. It doesn't seem to be real buying. And the structure of the whole move off the lows is still very negative. So, it's very choppy, overlapping. It's very much sort of a corrective move that I think honestly in the last week we've peaked and I think we're actually going to start to fall pretty rapidly in the next month. So, that's a move I would buy into. I'm actually positive for the the year, but I think that uh this spring is going to be one where uh crypto needs to get to new lows first. And thereafter, we can finally uh you know, experience a pretty good move. Now, normally, you know, most of these bear markets last at least a year, which means October of last year is when we peaked. October of this year we bottom. Uh that would make perfect sense to maybe establish a a higher low. So, we have a sharp rally maybe between, let's say, June and uh the fall and then we pull back probably to a a higher low and bottom in October, November and then we can probably rally with everything, I think, into 2027. Okay. Great. Um so, just to be clear, it doesn't sound like you're even though you expect um a recovery from a bottom, you know, somewhere in the next couple months, you're not expecting new highs in Bitcoin this year. Yeah, that's tricky only because um you know, I sense that the fall can still bring some issues for both for equities and for crypto. So, I'd be more comfortable with saying depending on where they are by the month of October, uh you know, in general, I think that the bottom for the year very well could be made in the next one or two months for for crypto. I think it's probably going to happen, but but it needs to start to move down quickly and I think that's something that investors should watch carefully. Okay. That happens into mid to late May, that should be a very good time to to buy dips in crypto. Finally, uh I sense that any move to new lows is really going to shake people out who were really hopeful that okay, equities are moving up, crypto should move up and >> Yeah. I sense that you know, both can consolidate, the move of crypto should be a lot more severe and that's going to that's going to flush people out likely at the lows, which would be a great buying opportunity for 2026. Okay. All right, Mark, this has just again been wonderful. Thank you so much for this. Um and folks, um I'm going to tell you in a second where to go to follow Mark in between now and his next time, but Mark will be back on next quarter to give us an update on where we are in this. We are all we where we are in all of this and I mean, I know you're painting with um the finest brush you can, but it's still a fairly broad brush. Um but if if your expectations are correct, we should probably be through the correction um that you're expecting and then poised to kind of have a really strong summer. So, the timing of your next uh appearance, Mark, is going to be really really interesting. Um okay, Mark, so for folks that would like to follow you and your work in between now and then, where should they go? So, I have uh let's see, a couple different things that I could share. Um let's see, I do have a I guess a QR code that I could uh what you know, why don't I do this? Why don't I send it to you and you can you can add it to your to this at the end. I would I would say you go to fundstratdirect.com. That's our retail arm of Fundstrat. That's where if you're a retail investor, you can subscribe to notes of people like myself and Tom Lee and our crypto department and our policy guy. Uh fundstrat.com is for institutions. If you're an RAA or an institution, you uh you know, you want to have face-to-face meetings, uh we certainly do a lot of zooms every day with institutions. Um you know, that's how you reach out to us uh there. Uh I am on X at Mark Newton CMT. And so, you can follow me there, but generally, uh you know, I'm happy to extend uh an offer to come and and view our research at least for a 2-week trial and and you know, you can sort of check it all out and see what happens. We have a new app, which is pretty neat, where we give sort of intraday type messages and you you see everything sort of live as it happens and it's uh it's it's pretty remarkable. A lot of people have given us some good and we actually have a brand new AI product that we're starting where we can whitelist things. If you're an RAA and you create uh you know, reports that you can basically, you know, whitelist as your own and and give to clients and share with that as well. So, and [snorts] we also have three new ETFs and and Jeez, you got a lot going on. All right. What are the ETFs? Our Granny ETF is up to uh about close to $4 billion in about 16 months. So, uh GRNY, which is uh modeled after the granny shot from uh uh We we won't we won't get into the nuts and bolts of of all that right now, but but in general, we have a uh three ETFs that you might want to explore. One is a small to mid cap ETF, one is more of an income generation where it's designed to uh give you about a 10% yield and the other is just based on Tom Lee's methodology uh called granny shots. And so, uh the three of those are about 4.5 right now billion and uh very happy that they've uh succeeded and done well. That's fantastic. Um and I love the fact that you named Granny after Rick Barry with his Right. Gran Granny shot. >> Many many don't know that he taught that to Wilt Chamberlain and he scored 100 points in the next game and that a lot of that was due to the granny shot. And so, uh you know, the thinking being that you invest in all these companies and they hit on a bunch of different buckets and it raises the probability hopefully for success. And so, uh yeah, it's a cute name and it has a good story. Yeah, um I want to expand on that in just a second, but so that I I'm going to put the ETF tickers up, that's why I'm asking for this. So, GRNY is the one for that one. What are the other two tickers? GRNI And which ETF is that one again? That's the income and then GRNJ is the small to mid cap. Okay. Great. >> And that's based on the same philosophy. It's just small to mid cap companies. And so, you know, it's nice to be able to cover the spectrum and if people feel defensive, they can buy the income or just the regular Granny. It's been I I don't want to boast about the outperformance, but uh you know, it has uh outperformed since inception. It's been uh remarkable. So, very happy. >> Okay. Um the the thing I'm going to say about the Granny shot, um it's it's germane to our earlier conversation kind of about people's investors' emotions often times being their worst enemies. Real quick, um I'll I'll put up the QR code earlier um if you send it to me, but but clicking on that QR code or you know, snapping it with your camera uh lens, um where's that going to take you? Is that going to take you >> that will take you to an area where you can sign up for a 2-week trial. That's my understanding. Uh I was just sent this about 20 minutes ago. So, uh I do have the the QR uh you know, and it just I you know, I'd recommend you just go and explore the the website itself. Just go to fundstrat.com and go to fundstratdirect and and there's a lot going on there. So, very happy to uh you know, to to share our research with you and have you see what we're all about. Okay. Great. Um So, uh just in wrapping up here on this this whole Rick Barry thing. Um so, I've [clears throat] I've talked about this before on this channel and I'll I'll I'll just give the super quick summary of it. And folks, if you've heard me say this before, I apologize. Um but um So, yeah, Wilt Chamberlain's famous for that 100-point game, right? And um this this season he hit it uh was the season that So, so he was a terrible free throw shooter. And he was a liability uh to his team because in the last couple minutes of the game, well, what would you do? You If Wilt got the ball, you would foul him, he'd go to the foul line, he'd miss, you'd get the ball back, another chance to score, right? So, um the I I think the coaches there said, "Hey, look, Wilt, you got to you got to shore up this weakness." And they got Rick Barry to come uh instruct him on the granny shot. And and Wilt's um field goal percentage went way up. And and folks don't realize this, but in that 100-point game, he had like a career high from the foul line. It was like 80-something percent, right? So, it was actually really material in helping him hit that that that uh scoring record he's he's so famous for. Um and uh you know, he had a pretty good year uh in in in that year, but then he stopped doing the granny shot. And uh his free throw percentage went to an all-time career low. Um you know, the the the hey, let's foul Wilt thing came back in. And in his memoir, he basically wrote about it with regret saying, I I I should I should have stuck with it. He said the problem was, I just felt too much like a It was totally emotions that got in the way. >> macho to be able to have to do a granny Yeah, I understand. Right, right. It's not it's not macho, but when you think about it, like think about the the career stats of his that suffered. Think about the points that weren't made, the games that weren't won, right? The the the economic opportunity cost of that to him and his teammates. Um and and and what's so crazy about this is in the decades since, pretty much nobody in the NBA went back to the granny shot. The only player who I don't know if he's still playing now, but the only player who recently in the NBA who was shooting the granny shot, Rick Barry's son. Okay. Yeah. And and it Shaquille O'Neal, maybe he could have benefited from that maybe. He he certainly could have, right? And and but that's the point. It's like there is like gold nuggets on the ground there that these guys are just choosing not to pick up for an ego reason, right? And and it just shows how often times our emotions can influence to do things that aren't in our best interest. That's right. And same thing can happen with investors. And again, Mark, I just want to underscore why your Vulcan very technical approach really helps insulate from from that risk. Thank you. Yeah, don't don't have any ego, choose Fundstrat and we'll hopefully [laughter] help you get there to the finish line. So, thank you. >> all right. Well, look, Mark, um when I edit this, I will put up the links to everything we talked about. Folks, the links will be in the description below this video as well. Um and if you are someone who, you know, would like to apply in your uh your portfolio management a lot of the things that Mark and I have talked about here, but you don't want to be your own financial quarterback, you have a life, you want to focus on the things that you're great at like maybe earning income, but um farming out the actual management to a manager that, you know, could benefit you a benefit you in the way that Mark benefits um the folks that follow his funds, um then I highly recommend you get that help from a good quality uh professional financial advisor. Importantly, one that takes into consideration all the the concepts that Mark and I have talked about here. If you've got a good one who's advising you on that, great. Don't mess with success. But if you don't, feel free to talk to one of the advisors that Thoughtful Money endorses. These are the firms you see with me in this channel week in and week out. Uh to schedule one of those free consultations with them, just fill out the very short form at thoughtfulmoney.com. Only takes you a couple seconds. Again, they're totally free. No commitments involved. It's just a free service these firms offer to be as helpful to as many investors as they can be. Um Mark, thanks so much, buddy. Really look forward to doing this in a quarter with you. If we can, let's just 20 seconds, any parting bits of advice to investors as they navigate, you know, what is arguably emotionally a challenging time in the markets right now? Yeah, look, I think it's it's honestly it's really important that investors just start to become comfortable with looking at at at charts and and and gradually teaching yourself how to sort of marry what's actually happening in the price action with what you think and and hopefully the two will be on the same page, but it is great for risk management. I always endorse it. Uh Bottom line, you have to ignore as much as it it pains anybody to do it. We're all deluged by news every day, but you have to just try to focus on on really what matters and for the stock market it's it's not necessarily all of the news that matters. It's really what's happening with you know, trends and volume and the buying and selling and and you know, what what's happening with momentum and sector leadership and interest rates and the dollar and expectations much more than than all the negative news. All right. So, listen to what the market is saying, not what the pundits are saying. That's exactly right, yeah. All right. Thanks so much, Mark. Very much appreciate it. >> Thanks, Adam. Look forward to seeing you next time and everybody else, thanks so much for watching.