Massive Dump In Gold, Silver: Why Rick Rule Is Selling Now
Summary
Precious Metals: Rick Rule is long-term bullish on gold as a savings asset and expects continued support from negative real yields and central bank demand.
Gold Miners: He argues gold miners are not overvalued assuming ~$4,200 gold, with upside from earnings surprises as sell-side models use lower price decks.
Silver: He took profits after a parabolic move, emphasizing a discipline of buying hated assets and selling when love and reduced utility emerge.
Oil and Gas: High conviction multi-year call driven by chronic underinvestment and capital starvation, setting up tighter supply and better industry economics.
Macro Backdrop: Negative real yields, rising long-end rates, and the return of bond vigilantes support hard assets over fiat-denominated savings.
Institutions: He notes institutions are being “dragged” into gold miners by performance, implying continued flows despite decades of neglect.
No Single-Stock Picks: No specific tickers were pitched; focus was on sector-level opportunities in gold miners and oil and gas, with emphasis on valuation math and risk control.
Transcript
If you don't take some money off the table, you're a If you assume not even the current gold price, if you assume $4,200 gold, >> yeah, >> the gold stocks aren't overvalued. If I'm wrong about the commodity price, if you see the commodity price come off 25 or 30%. Then the current price is ugly. We're back at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. Joining me right now is Rick Rule, founder of Battle of Bank, founder of Rule Investment Media, CEO, prior CEO of Spots. We'll be talking about his views on what's next for the global economy and metals after $5,000 gold and $100 silver. How much room is left to run, Rick, always an honor to host you on the show. Always good to see you in person. Welcome both. >> Pleasure to be with you. Congratulations once again on the growth of your channel. >> Thank you very much. Congratulations on the growth of this entire sector, which is a theme of our presentation. or interview today and you were telling me at our last interview not too long ago, a couple months ago when it seemed like ages ago because silver was nowhere near its price target price level today. But you already at 50 close to $50 silver, you were telling me, hey, look, in prior bull cycles in the metals, it uh behooves oneself to look at how it's behaved at the market top. And what gold has done in prior market tops is it's corrected by the order of 30 to 50%. That's just what it's historically done. 2011 um even 2022 to some extent and 1980 you were making several presentations today about how you look into the possibility of taking profits. You've talked about I believe you've talked about correct me if I'm wrong taking profits yourself on some of your own holdings. What indicators are you looking at right now? Is this just normal profit taking for Rick Rule or are you looking at a market top? >> No, not looking at a market top at all. I don't care about market tops. Bernard Baroo famously said, "The only guy who bought at the bottom and sold at the top was a liar." It didn't happen. >> I like to take a nice fat slug out of the middle. >> Right. >> I will tell you this, David. >> Uh parabolic inclines, the so-called Canadian hockey hockey stick. >> Yeah. >> Graph. >> Yeah. >> The back side of that st stick stick is just as steep as the front side, and it's a lot less front if you're long. It >> It can't look like a like an IKEA bookshelf where it goes up vertically and stays horizontally there. >> Could do. could do. Uh from my viewpoint as an example with silver, I bought silver for a reason. My ethos is that I buy hate and I sell love. Yeah, >> that's what I do. >> Okay. >> Uh silver at $20 an ounce was hated. The same sort of circumstance, the same underpinnings were present in silver at 20, the same as their present silver at 100. The difference is that at 20, silver was a lot cheaper. Mhm. >> When silver ceased to be hated, >> I sold most of my physical silver. >> When was that? At $80. >> Last week. So 7576. >> Okay. >> I guess. Do I wish that I had sold at 110? Sure. >> Is that the worst sin I'm going to commit in my investing life? No. >> Well, how did you know it was not hated anymore? I I And this is just what I've heard, Rick. Uh institutional investors have not yet piled into the space. In fact, several miners are looking for ways to pitch themselves to a more institutional asset class based group of investors. So maybe there's a lot more room to climb in terms of interest with the general public. >> I don't dispute that there's more interest. >> I bought it because it was hated. >> I see. >> Not because people were bored by it. >> Right. >> The social media com commentary around silver four years ago was that silver was a four-letter word. >> Yeah. uh at $20, people were either bored by it or if they had been part of the abortive silver squeeze, the Reddit squeeze, they hated it, >> right? >> I love assets that are hated. >> Okay, >> I bought silver because I thought if it ceased to be hated, it could trade up to 50. I was wrong. It traded up to 75. >> By that logic, even if it goes to 150 and no one's talking about it, if it's still hated, you would still buy. >> Uh I would have to see utility. >> Yeah. One of the things I saw at 20 was that primary silver producers, admittedly only 18% of supply, >> yeah, >> weren't incented to add supply. Most of the silver supply in the world at 20 was as a byproduct of copper mines, lead mines, zinc mines. Meanwhile, at 20, the industrial utility of silver, things like its potential as a germicide, uh, or its reflective properties, uh, meant that it was extremely cheap. Nobody had any incentive to conserve it. At some number like 150, what you're going to find is that there will be new fabrication technologies in things like solar panels that will use silver much more efficiently. >> I've learned in my life, David, that the cure for low prices is always low prices. And the cure for high prices is always high prices. And so a combination of hatred and the diminished utility that was a consequence of the price increase is what caused me to sell it. >> That narrative makes sense for silver. What about for gold? What is the utility for gold? >> For me, uh, you know, portfolios are >> personal. >> Uh, for me, gold is a savings asset class. The sell decision on my gold holdings will likely be made by my estate. >> Okay. >> I have saved principally in gold since the year 2000. I maintain liquidity in US dollars, >> but I save in gold. >> Okay? >> I hope and I hope your audience can understand this. I really truly hope that by the time I shed my mortal coil that my gold investments will have been a mistake. Gold tends to do well when faith in conventional assets, fiat currency denominated assets is weak. Yeah, >> I would like to live in benign rather than challenging times. >> I believe I live in challenging times. >> I believe, as we've talked about on your show before, that the US dollar, as an example, >> Yeah. >> loses 75% of its real purchasing power and that gold does well. I hope, David, I'm wrong. >> I hope those fears are wrong. >> I think those fears are real. I I I recall us having this conversation several years ago and I think the conversation was what would the world look like when gold hits $5,000, >> right? >> If you recall back to a few years ago and how you would have answered that question in let's say 2021 or 2020 and the kind of chaos that maybe one would see in let's say the global environment with stock market. Um did what happened actually transpire align with your expectations? >> I think you're seeing that now. Uh I think the gradual unraveling of civil society in the United States, the turmoil that you're seeing geopolitically around the world, but particularly the negative interest rates uh experienced by savers on a global basis meant that the set of circumstances that we described was coming true. You may remember too a discussion that you and I had about what would cause me to sell my gold. >> Yeah. >> Uh and I said a balanced US federal budget, >> right? and a political consensus uh around um entitlement liabilities. Yeah. >> And positive real interest rates. >> Yeah. >> We aren't close to there yet. I would love to see a set of circumstances like we saw in 1980, >> right, >> or 81 that would cause me to see go cause me to sell my gold, >> but I don't see that circumstance. >> I'd love to get your perspective as both a gold investor and also a bank operator. And we'll talk about Battle Bank. You're the founder of Battle Bank. uh this dichotomy. Ray Dallio at Davos at the WEF last week said that he told CNBC the global monetary fiat system is dying. People are moving away from the US dollar and all fiat not just the US dollar but all fiat currency systems into hard assets. Now a bank by nature >> is an institution in which you deposit fiat money >> into the system. So part of you still believes that the fiat system works don't you? I believe that the US dollar will be the world's reserve asset not merely for the rest of my life. Yeah. >> But for the rest of your life. >> Okay. >> Uh I just believe that US dollar hegemony, >> right, >> will decrease. >> Okay. >> Two, a bank has a natural currency hedge. >> We borrow in US dollars from depositors >> and we loan in US dollars to borrow to uh we we borrow from depositors. We loan to borrowers. What we care about is the spread between what it costs us to borrow and what we sell that same money for to other people. Other words, we have a natural currency hedge. What matters to us is getting paid back on our loans. Yes. >> And running the bank efficiently. >> I would love a circ a circumstance and I think I will experience a circumstance where gold in particular or deposit receipts uh are tokenized and trade on the internet >> so you can earn a yield. I hope ultimately that I can take deposits in gold. >> Yeah. >> And that I can lend in gold. >> Right now, all I can do is lend against gold, which I'm happy to do. >> While gold and silver have dominated headlines recently, another metal has recently made new highs and broken records of its own, and that is copper, one of the most critical minerals of our economy. The price of copper has rallied 40% in the last 12 months. And among the drivers of the rally was the Trump administration declaring it a critical mineral in 2025. Listen to what money magnet Robert Freriedeland had to say about copper. This is the revenge of the old economy. The old economy has been deprived of capital for the last 20 years. And so not enough money has gone into finding the metals that we need for the energy transformation. There's a scramble to bring on production for the metals the world needs. We take the long-term view in copper and we're very very bullish on demand. You think copper is making a bottom? I'd be willing to wager on 9,500 a ton. >> Now listen to what venture capitalist Chimath Palipetia thinks. >> I will pick copper. >> Okay. Copper. We are still completely underestimating how short we are in terms of the global demand supply dynamics of a handful of critical elements that we need. Again, in the Trump doctrine view of the world, that is no longer as multilateral as it was, and we need to have unilateral national security. Now, copper futures are not the only way to play the metal, which is why today I want to highlight a copper company. Today's sponsor, Giant Mining Corp., ticker symbol BFGF on the US OTC exchange. The company stock is available on Interactive Brokers, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab, among other brokers. Giant Mining owns a past-producing copper mine in Nevada, the Majuba Hill Copper Project. Historic underground mines at the Majuba Hill project produced copper, tin, and silver from the early 1900s to the 1950s, including 2.8 million pounds of copper, 184,000 ounces of silver, 5,800 ounces of gold, and 21,000 lb of tin. This is one of the reasons why the Majuba Hill project is unique because not a lot of miners operate on a mine with such a rich history. The infrastructure is robust with access to established roads, power supply, water supply, and or stock piles. Do your homework on giant mining today. That's taker BFGF on the US OTC exchange. Okay. How do you feel about changing banking regulations and legislations? For example, we're talking offline. Um, this doesn't concern banks in particular, but banking products, credit cards, bank, uh, Trump just instituted a or proposed a 10% cap on credit card interest rates in the US. Uh, where is this industry headed? >> Let's do the arithmetic on that. >> Yeah. >> Right now, the US credit card industry is experiencing a 6.5% default rate. >> Okay. >> Their cost of capital is four and it cost the industry 175 basis points to operate a bank. >> Okay. What he's saying is that you are going to fix your yield below your cost of capital. >> Right >> now, that's consistent with the way politicians budget. That's cons completely consistent with the way he operates the US federal budget. It's suicidal. Explain to me or have Mr. Trump explained to me how when your cost of capital is 1175 basis points that you fix your yield at 1,000 basis points. >> Oh, well that's easy. You just cut off the supply to 90% of your customers. >> Well, that that's actually the answer. >> Yeah. >> What happens is if you freeze credit card interest rates at 10%. uh people that have average in incomes below $400,000 a year or people that have FICO scores less than 800 won't have access to credit. >> Yeah. What do the rising default rates on credit cards tell you if anything? Is it an important stat or is it just normalization? >> I think it is an important stat. Uh I think it tells you a lot of things. Uh I think with regards to humankind, >> yeah, >> it teaches us that people would rather live rich than be rich, >> right? >> I think too that there's a complacency among people >> that exists as a consequence of 40 benign years 1982 to 2022. >> Yeah. >> And a lack of realization over the fact that the next 10 years is going to be more challenging. But the other thing uh unfortunately that I think it says is that the banking industry is beset by greed. They are actively marketing credit cards in search of 22 to 25% yields right >> to people who can't afford to pay them back. >> Okay. >> Uh no bank that I've been involved in in my lifetime >> has had an active credit card portfolio. >> Yeah. >> We have issued credit cards as a service to customers. Mhm. >> as an adjunct to their savings products. >> But I have never ever ever wanted to build a high yield portfolio >> among borrowers who couldn't pay me back. >> Right. >> I have no interest in that. >> Okay. So, uh uh given given your background in banking, what what is your outlook on on yields? Let's just take the 10-year and the 30-year Treasury yield uh long end of the curve. >> We're in an interesting position here. Yeah. >> Uh the Fed >> still controls the short end. >> Yes. >> They can drive the short end down. >> Yes. But despite their best efforts to drive the short end down, the long end is rising. That suggests to me that the bond vigilantes who last appeared in the Clinton administration have reraised their head. I believe, David, and we've talked in earlier interviews. I believe that the real rate of inflation, the rate of the deterioration of the US dollar is running between 8 and 10%. >> Yeah. What that means is that if you uh lend to the Fed at 4.2, the US 10-year Treasury, you weren't making 4.2, you're losing 3.8. >> Mhm. >> Uh it was it took until 1972 for American consumers to understand that they had been for 5 years experiencing negative real yield with their savings. >> Yeah. When that realization came to them, 1972, the gold price started to rise. It wasn't until US interest rates went up to 18%. And we had a 600 basis point positive real yield that the gold price collapsed. >> Mhm. Okay. Now, let's talk about uh the resource sector one more time before we finish off on your closing thoughts and Rick Rule's favorite asset classes for 2026. comment down below what you think he might say. So, uh, Rick, uh, we're at the resource investment conference. You have a service where you offer to rate people's mining portfolio. Uh, before, well, you can talk a little bit about that, but generally speaking, have your rating criteria changed now that gold has skyrocketed to $5,000 and copper to $6 an ounce and silver to $100? >> Uh, interestingly, if you assume that these metals prices hold, >> I'm not sure that they will. >> Okay? Despite the fact that many company market capitalizations have increased, the ratio between market capitalization and net present value hasn't moved much. >> Okay. >> Interestingly, we did a net present value calculation on Agniko Eagle not too long ago. >> Mhm. >> And the price of the stock relative to the indicated value >> Yeah. was actually lower than it was when the share price was half its current level. That makes an implicit assumption around precious metals prices. When I do a value calculation myself, I run three net present value calculations. One, my base case at the uh current commodity price and the f the for the existing strip, which is to say the existing price. Yeah, >> I run a stress case at 25% below, >> right? >> And I run a bonus case at 25% above. >> Yes. >> Knowing that none of those estimates are going to be accurate. >> Uh and what you find is that the gold companies, if you assume, not even the current gold price, if you assume $4,200 gold, >> yeah, >> the gold stocks aren't overvalued. If I'm wrong about the commodity price, if you see the commodity price come off 25 or 30%. Then the current pricing is ugly. Well, I'll give you a few um things that I've been told today and yesterday at the conference. So, several mining companies are still using um let's say $3,000 to $3,500 gold price for their prefeasibility study or PA estimate assumptions. Banks are still using $3,500 gold. Um, and at least one silver company has told me that if silver falls back towards $50, first of all, the silver producers are still printing money. And second, uh, that wouldn't change the strategy one bit. What does that tell you about market sentiment? >> Uh, probably yes, yes, and yes. Okay. Uh, I agree with all that. We are going to have earnings surprises, >> right, >> in the mining sector. We're going to have them because Wall Street and Bay Street are using 32 or $3,300 gold on their quoted earnings estimates. >> So if they estimate your earnings based on 33 and you sell the stuff for 42, it's going to be a surprise if you don't have a surprise. >> Yeah, that's right. The second thing is that as you suggest when the bankers and that's really what I am at my heart uh do net present value calculations including lending calculations >> we're using a gold price that isn't reflective of the current reality. >> Yeah. Uh that means that if the current pricing commodity pricing reality comes to the four we are grievously underestimating the net present value of future cash flows. I don't mean a little bit. >> Sure. >> I mean we're way way way below. >> If you were a banker today and you had to pitch mining companies just to investors in general, would you have a different message for institutional investors versus retail investors? In other words, do you think these two demographics today at $5,000 gold are looking for different things? >> Probably with the caveat that institutional investors mostly aren't looking at gold at all. >> Why not? >> Uh I think I think they went through 40 benign years >> when the gold price was very high late 70s early 80s. >> These guys were all gold bugs. >> Uh they didn't know much about gold then. They don't much about go know much about gold now. in the early part of the 80s they lost their they lost their kesters in the gold business and they haven't paid attention for 40 years uh they just I mean maybe some of them thought about gold as a component in micro electronics >> but they didn't think about gold they're being dragged into it uh to be sure >> okay by being dragged in by whom >> by the performance of gold >> oh okay >> the institutional investors I'm generalizing many of them don't own their products uh they get paid kush bet cash bonuses based on their performance. The best performing sector in 2025 bar none was gold mining stocks. >> Yeah. >> So uh institutional investors who are looking for quarterly cash bonuses look at over 100 100% performance say oh my god look what my bonus could have been. >> Yeah. That's why the institutional investors uh often chase horses once they're out of the barn. The same circumstance exists with most individual investors. You and I exist in a community that thinks about gold all the time 24/7. >> Right? >> So if you ask your audience or my audience if they believe in gold, that's like going into a Pentecostal church in the US South and asking the choir if they believe in God. Of course. But if you get out of our church >> Yeah. If you get out of a conference like this, >> sure. >> If you get, you know, on the main street, uh, actually, I'll give you an interesting anecdote. Uh, down where I used to live in Southern California, >> okay, >> there's a pretty famous place called Ensenita's Coin and Stamp. Uh, and the owner of Ensenita's Coin and Stamp used to stand out in the corner, uh, and he would offer people walking by at random a 6 chocolate bar and a 6 silver bar. >> Oh. And about 80% of the people took the chocolate. >> What was worth more more at the time? >> Yes. >> I I What year was this? >> Five years ago. >> Oh, well that was silver, of course. >> 20 bucks. 20 bucks worth of silver. >> 20 bucks an ounce. So you're talking 120 bucks worth of silver against a $2 or $3 Hershey bar. >> Yeah. Okay. >> Uh there was so so little interest in the price information that 80% of his 80% of the people that walked by took the Hershey as opposed to the silver. >> Okay. Interesting. What was he trying to prove with this experiment? >> How underrun silver was. >> Okay. What do you think it would have? Do you think if he did that today, people would do something different >> perhaps? But even then, he was offering $120 worth of silver or $3 worth of chocolate. >> Yeah. >> And that talks about the relative import of precious metals in most retail portfolios even today. What would incentivize the central banks to stop buying gold in the quantities that we've seen in the last two to three years? That may give us an indication of when this momentum stalls. >> I think two things. Uh the US dollar the US government would have to demonetize the US currency. The US government would have to acknowledge that the swift banking system was global property, not the sole preserve of the US government. The US government attempts to enforce its political will on the rest of the world via the dollar. People in other countries, I think wisely, say the US dollar, the US government doesn't have the right to govern their own political perspective, including with the US dollar. >> Yeah. >> The second non-geeopolitical aspect is that the US currency and the US treasury has to be a better buy. uh countries like China that have generated very large savings and trade surpluses separate and apart from the weaponization of the US dollar. Look at the fact that they get a 4% yield in the dollar in a currency where the purchasing power is declining by 8%. The Chinese government is not bad at math. They have looked at the rate of return on capital employed and said we can make more money employing our reserves in China or in the belt and road and for liquidity gold has greater utility to us than losing 4% compounded. >> Mhm. The Chinese have combined the two, I think, very wisely by saying that they want to do more business outside the US dollar, but they actually don't want to hold rubles or euros or yen. >> Yeah. >> So, they will establish to the extent that they can their own gold reserves and bricks reserves. They will trade with Russia in rubles, right? >> And they will trade those rubles for gold as fast as they possibly can. That brings me to my next question which is I wonder if you as an investor are shifting your positions or reallocating assets given the events of the last month and I talk about the capture of Maduro in Venezuela. I'm talking about Mark Carney's speech at Davos where he said that globalization is weaponized. There should be less globalization. Carney also talked about a new world order because the old world order is not coming back. There is a rupture in this new world order. Shifting alliances. Canada making a deal with China and now Trump threatening a 100% tariff on Canada as a result. Uh, US losing its allies and perhaps the world getting ready for a new world order. I don't know what this world order is going to look like. But does it mean anything to you as an investor? >> Not at all. >> No. >> Uh, I believe that politicians are lying when their lips are moving. >> Okay. Uh, I believe that most politics, including international geopolitics, is really pandering to a domestic political constituency. >> Yeah, >> I think in the last election, Carney ran against Trump. >> Now, I'm not a Canadian, but I didn't see Trump on the ballot. >> Uh, I think Trump was extremely useful to Carney. It allowed him to distract attention from the Liberal Party's abysmal track record. >> Sure. And I think it's useful to Trump. Uh Trump promised to cut the size of the US government. Trump promised a whole bunch of stuff to distract opinion from that. He throws tariffs around. He decides he's going to enex Greenland. He decides Canada is going to be the 51st state. This is all a sideshow. It's fun for people to pay attention to these big picture things. Uh, in my experience, people who trade news lose money. >> You have to trade math. So, I watch this stuff. I was going to say with interest. That's not true. I watch it with horror. >> Yeah. >> But I'm now 73 years on Earth. The last time that a politician said something that came through was by accident, >> not by design. >> This is all a sideshow for you. What do you stay focused on? >> Arithmetic. >> Right. as an example. Uh I like the oil trade. >> Yeah, let's talk about that. >> Uh I believe that the oil industry worldwide, including its cost of capital and paying its social rent, taxes and royalties, requires about $60 US to break even. That includes cost of capital. So you make the stuff for 60 and you sell it for 52. >> And you do it 102 million times a day. >> Yeah. >> The industry is in slow motion liquidation. The consequence of that is that the industry is underinvesting in sustaining capital by between a billion and two billion dollars a day. >> Right? >> In a capital intensive business, if you starve the capital of business, you cannibalize the business. Doesn't matter maybe in 2026, maybe it doesn't matter in 2027 because you have so much stored capital to cannibalize, but in 2028, 2029, it starts to hurt. If you want to know what an oil company looks like that's been starved of capital, look at PEMMEX, where the producing base has declined by 85% in 30 years. Look at Pedvesa, the Venezuelan company, where the company's been starved of capital for 20 years. These are businesses that are not because of a lack of reserves, but rather a lack of investment, 15% of their former size. But are you not concerned about the underlying commodity in this case oil going down because of what happened in Venezuela? Trump is now boasting about importing 50 million barrels of oil. >> No. No. People are trading the headlines. >> Okay. >> First of all, regime change hasn't happened. >> Okay. >> Trump kidnapped the two top thugs or the the thug and his wife. Yeah. >> All the other thugs are still there. >> Okay. >> They control the military. Now, it may be that Trump has said to them, "We will allow you to stay on top and steal from the Venezuelan people as long as you take orders from us." >> Mhm. >> I don't know if that's happened. >> Sure. >> But I can tell you this. Uh, in order for Venezuela to get themselves back up to 3.5 million barrels a day from 800,000 barrels, it's going to take about a hundred billion dollars. >> Are you oil companies moving in? >> Uh, a lot would have to change. >> Okay. Uh Exxon pointed out they have been nationalized in Venezuela twice. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> And so much needs to change in Venezuela. Uh the infrastructure around oil and gas hasn't been upgraded for 22 years. >> Sure. >> The fiscal code >> is horrific, >> right? >> Uh a lot has to change and after it changes, >> yes, >> you don't increase it overnight. Spending a hundred billion dollars intelligently takes years. Similarly in Iran, you know, there's a lot of turmoil in Iran and people are suggesting that at long last that there will be some form of political liberalization in Iran and that in Iran the oil industry will come to be run rationally. I think that would be wonderful. Again, you are talking about $40 billion in deferred sustaining capital. >> Yes. >> You're talking about an oil industry where many of the highquality personnel >> left. >> Yeah. went to work elsewhere in the Middle East and they were they were replaced by political cadres from the Revolutionary Guard, >> right? >> Uh it takes a long time to turn these things around. >> Well, final question on just geopolitics in general. Recent turmoil in Venezuela, Trump threatening to take do the same thing with Colombia and other countries, um Middle East hotspot heating up, Armada moving to Iran. Do you does all this make you want to shift your priorities into North American deposits and assets away from you know geopolitically let's say unsound jurisdictions? >> One needs to examine one's premise with regards to politically unsafe jurisdictions. >> Okay. >> Uh I grew up in the People's Republic of California. Uh, I've been treated better personally in Congo, in Sudan, in Syria. >> Uh, I've been treated much better in jurisdictions that are believed to be risky than I have in my own jurisdiction. Uh, you may recall that I was a resident of British Columbia. I was treated very poorly here. Canadians don't like taxes, but I was subjected to the excess profits tariff, the vacant home tariff, the speculators tariff. Yeah. >> So, I would say the political risk is a function of perspective. I would say as an example, as a mineral exploration person in British Columbia, that the only politically safe part of British Columbia is where the Talllan or the Nishka >> Yeah. >> provide me political protection. >> I know that Canadians would prefer to think that Nicaragua was risky, >> right? because they would prefer not to look at their own actions. Similarly, in the United States, we assign political risk premiums to places that we can't spell or pronounce. >> Well, we generate a lot of risks for ourselves. >> Yeah. >> I was a I've been an oil and gas investor in Canada now for almost 50 years. I remember 20 years ago when the natural gas price tripled and as a consequence of that, the Alberta government doubled the percentage tax on natural gas, >> which is to say they nationalized a part of my wealth. >> Yeah. >> Because it was done by a Caucasian legislature in English according to the rule of law, they thought that money was somehow less gone. >> I would challenge that perception. >> I see. Final question. I promised the audience that you would talk about your top picks for 2026. Do you like oil and gas? Is there something else that we missed? If you had to pick a sector or asset class as your highest conviction long for the rest of the year. >> Uh it's very difficult for me to limit myself to a year. >> Sure. >> So if you give me three years, it's definitely there's definitely oil and gas. >> Okay. >> But I would tell people this uh at the beginning of 2025, I thought 2025 was going to be a great year. >> Yeah. I said at this conference in January of 2025, I think you guys, if you pay attention, are going to make 25 or 30% this year, they made 150. When that happens, you got to take some money off the table. >> Yeah. >> If you don't take some money off the table, you're a Uh people have fear of missing out. Everything that was true a year ago is true now. It's just that stuff is twice as expensive. That means stuff is half as good. It's difficult for people to get that straight. >> Yeah. I don't care what you sell unless you have some mistakes in your portfolio, in which case sell those. Don't wait for them to get back to even. But remember this, you have not made the money until you take the money. So if you're in this sector, if you're in the junior mining sector where your mistakes have made money, you have not made the money until you've taken some money. At the very least, get your bait back. >> I'm just curious what people have responded to you with. They hate it. They hate it. Which is how I know I'm saying the right thing. >> All right. Where can people get in touch with you? Uh you you you know if you surely people can find you. Yeah. >> Any of your listeners who are unhappy with their current bank. I suspect that's all of them. >> Should check out BattleBank. Battlebank.com. >> Uh >> you're launching soon by the way. >> Pardon me. >> You're you're launching the Battle Bank soon. >> We're launching BattleBank uh for public consumption February 17th. We're banking now. Okay, >> on a limited basis, >> uh assuming that you don't want to bank with me, that's okay. >> If you want to talk to me about natural resources, the best way to do that is to go to ruleinvestmentmedia.com. If you list your natural resource stocks, I personally will rank them 1 to 10, one being best, 10 being worst, >> and I'll comment on individual issues if I think my comments might have some value. >> Yeah. >> If you want to learn how to invest in natural resources, go to the rule classroom. The Rule Classroom has well over 300 hours of instructional programming and it's all free. >> Yes. >> ruleclassroom.com. >> Okay. We'll put the links down below. So, make sure to follow Rick. Always a pleasure to speak with you, Rick. >> My pleasure. Thank you. >> Thank you very much for coming to the show. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
Massive Dump In Gold, Silver: Why Rick Rule Is Selling Now
Summary
Transcript
If you don't take some money off the table, you're a If you assume not even the current gold price, if you assume $4,200 gold, >> yeah, >> the gold stocks aren't overvalued. If I'm wrong about the commodity price, if you see the commodity price come off 25 or 30%. Then the current price is ugly. We're back at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. Joining me right now is Rick Rule, founder of Battle of Bank, founder of Rule Investment Media, CEO, prior CEO of Spots. We'll be talking about his views on what's next for the global economy and metals after $5,000 gold and $100 silver. How much room is left to run, Rick, always an honor to host you on the show. Always good to see you in person. Welcome both. >> Pleasure to be with you. Congratulations once again on the growth of your channel. >> Thank you very much. Congratulations on the growth of this entire sector, which is a theme of our presentation. or interview today and you were telling me at our last interview not too long ago, a couple months ago when it seemed like ages ago because silver was nowhere near its price target price level today. But you already at 50 close to $50 silver, you were telling me, hey, look, in prior bull cycles in the metals, it uh behooves oneself to look at how it's behaved at the market top. And what gold has done in prior market tops is it's corrected by the order of 30 to 50%. That's just what it's historically done. 2011 um even 2022 to some extent and 1980 you were making several presentations today about how you look into the possibility of taking profits. You've talked about I believe you've talked about correct me if I'm wrong taking profits yourself on some of your own holdings. What indicators are you looking at right now? Is this just normal profit taking for Rick Rule or are you looking at a market top? >> No, not looking at a market top at all. I don't care about market tops. Bernard Baroo famously said, "The only guy who bought at the bottom and sold at the top was a liar." It didn't happen. >> I like to take a nice fat slug out of the middle. >> Right. >> I will tell you this, David. >> Uh parabolic inclines, the so-called Canadian hockey hockey stick. >> Yeah. >> Graph. >> Yeah. >> The back side of that st stick stick is just as steep as the front side, and it's a lot less front if you're long. It >> It can't look like a like an IKEA bookshelf where it goes up vertically and stays horizontally there. >> Could do. could do. Uh from my viewpoint as an example with silver, I bought silver for a reason. My ethos is that I buy hate and I sell love. Yeah, >> that's what I do. >> Okay. >> Uh silver at $20 an ounce was hated. The same sort of circumstance, the same underpinnings were present in silver at 20, the same as their present silver at 100. The difference is that at 20, silver was a lot cheaper. Mhm. >> When silver ceased to be hated, >> I sold most of my physical silver. >> When was that? At $80. >> Last week. So 7576. >> Okay. >> I guess. Do I wish that I had sold at 110? Sure. >> Is that the worst sin I'm going to commit in my investing life? No. >> Well, how did you know it was not hated anymore? I I And this is just what I've heard, Rick. Uh institutional investors have not yet piled into the space. In fact, several miners are looking for ways to pitch themselves to a more institutional asset class based group of investors. So maybe there's a lot more room to climb in terms of interest with the general public. >> I don't dispute that there's more interest. >> I bought it because it was hated. >> I see. >> Not because people were bored by it. >> Right. >> The social media com commentary around silver four years ago was that silver was a four-letter word. >> Yeah. uh at $20, people were either bored by it or if they had been part of the abortive silver squeeze, the Reddit squeeze, they hated it, >> right? >> I love assets that are hated. >> Okay, >> I bought silver because I thought if it ceased to be hated, it could trade up to 50. I was wrong. It traded up to 75. >> By that logic, even if it goes to 150 and no one's talking about it, if it's still hated, you would still buy. >> Uh I would have to see utility. >> Yeah. One of the things I saw at 20 was that primary silver producers, admittedly only 18% of supply, >> yeah, >> weren't incented to add supply. Most of the silver supply in the world at 20 was as a byproduct of copper mines, lead mines, zinc mines. Meanwhile, at 20, the industrial utility of silver, things like its potential as a germicide, uh, or its reflective properties, uh, meant that it was extremely cheap. Nobody had any incentive to conserve it. At some number like 150, what you're going to find is that there will be new fabrication technologies in things like solar panels that will use silver much more efficiently. >> I've learned in my life, David, that the cure for low prices is always low prices. And the cure for high prices is always high prices. And so a combination of hatred and the diminished utility that was a consequence of the price increase is what caused me to sell it. >> That narrative makes sense for silver. What about for gold? What is the utility for gold? >> For me, uh, you know, portfolios are >> personal. >> Uh, for me, gold is a savings asset class. The sell decision on my gold holdings will likely be made by my estate. >> Okay. >> I have saved principally in gold since the year 2000. I maintain liquidity in US dollars, >> but I save in gold. >> Okay? >> I hope and I hope your audience can understand this. I really truly hope that by the time I shed my mortal coil that my gold investments will have been a mistake. Gold tends to do well when faith in conventional assets, fiat currency denominated assets is weak. Yeah, >> I would like to live in benign rather than challenging times. >> I believe I live in challenging times. >> I believe, as we've talked about on your show before, that the US dollar, as an example, >> Yeah. >> loses 75% of its real purchasing power and that gold does well. I hope, David, I'm wrong. >> I hope those fears are wrong. >> I think those fears are real. I I I recall us having this conversation several years ago and I think the conversation was what would the world look like when gold hits $5,000, >> right? >> If you recall back to a few years ago and how you would have answered that question in let's say 2021 or 2020 and the kind of chaos that maybe one would see in let's say the global environment with stock market. Um did what happened actually transpire align with your expectations? >> I think you're seeing that now. Uh I think the gradual unraveling of civil society in the United States, the turmoil that you're seeing geopolitically around the world, but particularly the negative interest rates uh experienced by savers on a global basis meant that the set of circumstances that we described was coming true. You may remember too a discussion that you and I had about what would cause me to sell my gold. >> Yeah. >> Uh and I said a balanced US federal budget, >> right? and a political consensus uh around um entitlement liabilities. Yeah. >> And positive real interest rates. >> Yeah. >> We aren't close to there yet. I would love to see a set of circumstances like we saw in 1980, >> right, >> or 81 that would cause me to see go cause me to sell my gold, >> but I don't see that circumstance. >> I'd love to get your perspective as both a gold investor and also a bank operator. And we'll talk about Battle Bank. You're the founder of Battle Bank. uh this dichotomy. Ray Dallio at Davos at the WEF last week said that he told CNBC the global monetary fiat system is dying. People are moving away from the US dollar and all fiat not just the US dollar but all fiat currency systems into hard assets. Now a bank by nature >> is an institution in which you deposit fiat money >> into the system. So part of you still believes that the fiat system works don't you? I believe that the US dollar will be the world's reserve asset not merely for the rest of my life. Yeah. >> But for the rest of your life. >> Okay. >> Uh I just believe that US dollar hegemony, >> right, >> will decrease. >> Okay. >> Two, a bank has a natural currency hedge. >> We borrow in US dollars from depositors >> and we loan in US dollars to borrow to uh we we borrow from depositors. We loan to borrowers. What we care about is the spread between what it costs us to borrow and what we sell that same money for to other people. Other words, we have a natural currency hedge. What matters to us is getting paid back on our loans. Yes. >> And running the bank efficiently. >> I would love a circ a circumstance and I think I will experience a circumstance where gold in particular or deposit receipts uh are tokenized and trade on the internet >> so you can earn a yield. I hope ultimately that I can take deposits in gold. >> Yeah. >> And that I can lend in gold. >> Right now, all I can do is lend against gold, which I'm happy to do. >> While gold and silver have dominated headlines recently, another metal has recently made new highs and broken records of its own, and that is copper, one of the most critical minerals of our economy. The price of copper has rallied 40% in the last 12 months. And among the drivers of the rally was the Trump administration declaring it a critical mineral in 2025. Listen to what money magnet Robert Freriedeland had to say about copper. This is the revenge of the old economy. The old economy has been deprived of capital for the last 20 years. And so not enough money has gone into finding the metals that we need for the energy transformation. There's a scramble to bring on production for the metals the world needs. We take the long-term view in copper and we're very very bullish on demand. You think copper is making a bottom? I'd be willing to wager on 9,500 a ton. >> Now listen to what venture capitalist Chimath Palipetia thinks. >> I will pick copper. >> Okay. Copper. We are still completely underestimating how short we are in terms of the global demand supply dynamics of a handful of critical elements that we need. Again, in the Trump doctrine view of the world, that is no longer as multilateral as it was, and we need to have unilateral national security. Now, copper futures are not the only way to play the metal, which is why today I want to highlight a copper company. Today's sponsor, Giant Mining Corp., ticker symbol BFGF on the US OTC exchange. The company stock is available on Interactive Brokers, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab, among other brokers. Giant Mining owns a past-producing copper mine in Nevada, the Majuba Hill Copper Project. Historic underground mines at the Majuba Hill project produced copper, tin, and silver from the early 1900s to the 1950s, including 2.8 million pounds of copper, 184,000 ounces of silver, 5,800 ounces of gold, and 21,000 lb of tin. This is one of the reasons why the Majuba Hill project is unique because not a lot of miners operate on a mine with such a rich history. The infrastructure is robust with access to established roads, power supply, water supply, and or stock piles. Do your homework on giant mining today. That's taker BFGF on the US OTC exchange. Okay. How do you feel about changing banking regulations and legislations? For example, we're talking offline. Um, this doesn't concern banks in particular, but banking products, credit cards, bank, uh, Trump just instituted a or proposed a 10% cap on credit card interest rates in the US. Uh, where is this industry headed? >> Let's do the arithmetic on that. >> Yeah. >> Right now, the US credit card industry is experiencing a 6.5% default rate. >> Okay. >> Their cost of capital is four and it cost the industry 175 basis points to operate a bank. >> Okay. What he's saying is that you are going to fix your yield below your cost of capital. >> Right >> now, that's consistent with the way politicians budget. That's cons completely consistent with the way he operates the US federal budget. It's suicidal. Explain to me or have Mr. Trump explained to me how when your cost of capital is 1175 basis points that you fix your yield at 1,000 basis points. >> Oh, well that's easy. You just cut off the supply to 90% of your customers. >> Well, that that's actually the answer. >> Yeah. >> What happens is if you freeze credit card interest rates at 10%. uh people that have average in incomes below $400,000 a year or people that have FICO scores less than 800 won't have access to credit. >> Yeah. What do the rising default rates on credit cards tell you if anything? Is it an important stat or is it just normalization? >> I think it is an important stat. Uh I think it tells you a lot of things. Uh I think with regards to humankind, >> yeah, >> it teaches us that people would rather live rich than be rich, >> right? >> I think too that there's a complacency among people >> that exists as a consequence of 40 benign years 1982 to 2022. >> Yeah. >> And a lack of realization over the fact that the next 10 years is going to be more challenging. But the other thing uh unfortunately that I think it says is that the banking industry is beset by greed. They are actively marketing credit cards in search of 22 to 25% yields right >> to people who can't afford to pay them back. >> Okay. >> Uh no bank that I've been involved in in my lifetime >> has had an active credit card portfolio. >> Yeah. >> We have issued credit cards as a service to customers. Mhm. >> as an adjunct to their savings products. >> But I have never ever ever wanted to build a high yield portfolio >> among borrowers who couldn't pay me back. >> Right. >> I have no interest in that. >> Okay. So, uh uh given given your background in banking, what what is your outlook on on yields? Let's just take the 10-year and the 30-year Treasury yield uh long end of the curve. >> We're in an interesting position here. Yeah. >> Uh the Fed >> still controls the short end. >> Yes. >> They can drive the short end down. >> Yes. But despite their best efforts to drive the short end down, the long end is rising. That suggests to me that the bond vigilantes who last appeared in the Clinton administration have reraised their head. I believe, David, and we've talked in earlier interviews. I believe that the real rate of inflation, the rate of the deterioration of the US dollar is running between 8 and 10%. >> Yeah. What that means is that if you uh lend to the Fed at 4.2, the US 10-year Treasury, you weren't making 4.2, you're losing 3.8. >> Mhm. >> Uh it was it took until 1972 for American consumers to understand that they had been for 5 years experiencing negative real yield with their savings. >> Yeah. When that realization came to them, 1972, the gold price started to rise. It wasn't until US interest rates went up to 18%. And we had a 600 basis point positive real yield that the gold price collapsed. >> Mhm. Okay. Now, let's talk about uh the resource sector one more time before we finish off on your closing thoughts and Rick Rule's favorite asset classes for 2026. comment down below what you think he might say. So, uh, Rick, uh, we're at the resource investment conference. You have a service where you offer to rate people's mining portfolio. Uh, before, well, you can talk a little bit about that, but generally speaking, have your rating criteria changed now that gold has skyrocketed to $5,000 and copper to $6 an ounce and silver to $100? >> Uh, interestingly, if you assume that these metals prices hold, >> I'm not sure that they will. >> Okay? Despite the fact that many company market capitalizations have increased, the ratio between market capitalization and net present value hasn't moved much. >> Okay. >> Interestingly, we did a net present value calculation on Agniko Eagle not too long ago. >> Mhm. >> And the price of the stock relative to the indicated value >> Yeah. was actually lower than it was when the share price was half its current level. That makes an implicit assumption around precious metals prices. When I do a value calculation myself, I run three net present value calculations. One, my base case at the uh current commodity price and the f the for the existing strip, which is to say the existing price. Yeah, >> I run a stress case at 25% below, >> right? >> And I run a bonus case at 25% above. >> Yes. >> Knowing that none of those estimates are going to be accurate. >> Uh and what you find is that the gold companies, if you assume, not even the current gold price, if you assume $4,200 gold, >> yeah, >> the gold stocks aren't overvalued. If I'm wrong about the commodity price, if you see the commodity price come off 25 or 30%. Then the current pricing is ugly. Well, I'll give you a few um things that I've been told today and yesterday at the conference. So, several mining companies are still using um let's say $3,000 to $3,500 gold price for their prefeasibility study or PA estimate assumptions. Banks are still using $3,500 gold. Um, and at least one silver company has told me that if silver falls back towards $50, first of all, the silver producers are still printing money. And second, uh, that wouldn't change the strategy one bit. What does that tell you about market sentiment? >> Uh, probably yes, yes, and yes. Okay. Uh, I agree with all that. We are going to have earnings surprises, >> right, >> in the mining sector. We're going to have them because Wall Street and Bay Street are using 32 or $3,300 gold on their quoted earnings estimates. >> So if they estimate your earnings based on 33 and you sell the stuff for 42, it's going to be a surprise if you don't have a surprise. >> Yeah, that's right. The second thing is that as you suggest when the bankers and that's really what I am at my heart uh do net present value calculations including lending calculations >> we're using a gold price that isn't reflective of the current reality. >> Yeah. Uh that means that if the current pricing commodity pricing reality comes to the four we are grievously underestimating the net present value of future cash flows. I don't mean a little bit. >> Sure. >> I mean we're way way way below. >> If you were a banker today and you had to pitch mining companies just to investors in general, would you have a different message for institutional investors versus retail investors? In other words, do you think these two demographics today at $5,000 gold are looking for different things? >> Probably with the caveat that institutional investors mostly aren't looking at gold at all. >> Why not? >> Uh I think I think they went through 40 benign years >> when the gold price was very high late 70s early 80s. >> These guys were all gold bugs. >> Uh they didn't know much about gold then. They don't much about go know much about gold now. in the early part of the 80s they lost their they lost their kesters in the gold business and they haven't paid attention for 40 years uh they just I mean maybe some of them thought about gold as a component in micro electronics >> but they didn't think about gold they're being dragged into it uh to be sure >> okay by being dragged in by whom >> by the performance of gold >> oh okay >> the institutional investors I'm generalizing many of them don't own their products uh they get paid kush bet cash bonuses based on their performance. The best performing sector in 2025 bar none was gold mining stocks. >> Yeah. >> So uh institutional investors who are looking for quarterly cash bonuses look at over 100 100% performance say oh my god look what my bonus could have been. >> Yeah. That's why the institutional investors uh often chase horses once they're out of the barn. The same circumstance exists with most individual investors. You and I exist in a community that thinks about gold all the time 24/7. >> Right? >> So if you ask your audience or my audience if they believe in gold, that's like going into a Pentecostal church in the US South and asking the choir if they believe in God. Of course. But if you get out of our church >> Yeah. If you get out of a conference like this, >> sure. >> If you get, you know, on the main street, uh, actually, I'll give you an interesting anecdote. Uh, down where I used to live in Southern California, >> okay, >> there's a pretty famous place called Ensenita's Coin and Stamp. Uh, and the owner of Ensenita's Coin and Stamp used to stand out in the corner, uh, and he would offer people walking by at random a 6 chocolate bar and a 6 silver bar. >> Oh. And about 80% of the people took the chocolate. >> What was worth more more at the time? >> Yes. >> I I What year was this? >> Five years ago. >> Oh, well that was silver, of course. >> 20 bucks. 20 bucks worth of silver. >> 20 bucks an ounce. So you're talking 120 bucks worth of silver against a $2 or $3 Hershey bar. >> Yeah. Okay. >> Uh there was so so little interest in the price information that 80% of his 80% of the people that walked by took the Hershey as opposed to the silver. >> Okay. Interesting. What was he trying to prove with this experiment? >> How underrun silver was. >> Okay. What do you think it would have? Do you think if he did that today, people would do something different >> perhaps? But even then, he was offering $120 worth of silver or $3 worth of chocolate. >> Yeah. >> And that talks about the relative import of precious metals in most retail portfolios even today. What would incentivize the central banks to stop buying gold in the quantities that we've seen in the last two to three years? That may give us an indication of when this momentum stalls. >> I think two things. Uh the US dollar the US government would have to demonetize the US currency. The US government would have to acknowledge that the swift banking system was global property, not the sole preserve of the US government. The US government attempts to enforce its political will on the rest of the world via the dollar. People in other countries, I think wisely, say the US dollar, the US government doesn't have the right to govern their own political perspective, including with the US dollar. >> Yeah. >> The second non-geeopolitical aspect is that the US currency and the US treasury has to be a better buy. uh countries like China that have generated very large savings and trade surpluses separate and apart from the weaponization of the US dollar. Look at the fact that they get a 4% yield in the dollar in a currency where the purchasing power is declining by 8%. The Chinese government is not bad at math. They have looked at the rate of return on capital employed and said we can make more money employing our reserves in China or in the belt and road and for liquidity gold has greater utility to us than losing 4% compounded. >> Mhm. The Chinese have combined the two, I think, very wisely by saying that they want to do more business outside the US dollar, but they actually don't want to hold rubles or euros or yen. >> Yeah. >> So, they will establish to the extent that they can their own gold reserves and bricks reserves. They will trade with Russia in rubles, right? >> And they will trade those rubles for gold as fast as they possibly can. That brings me to my next question which is I wonder if you as an investor are shifting your positions or reallocating assets given the events of the last month and I talk about the capture of Maduro in Venezuela. I'm talking about Mark Carney's speech at Davos where he said that globalization is weaponized. There should be less globalization. Carney also talked about a new world order because the old world order is not coming back. There is a rupture in this new world order. Shifting alliances. Canada making a deal with China and now Trump threatening a 100% tariff on Canada as a result. Uh, US losing its allies and perhaps the world getting ready for a new world order. I don't know what this world order is going to look like. But does it mean anything to you as an investor? >> Not at all. >> No. >> Uh, I believe that politicians are lying when their lips are moving. >> Okay. Uh, I believe that most politics, including international geopolitics, is really pandering to a domestic political constituency. >> Yeah, >> I think in the last election, Carney ran against Trump. >> Now, I'm not a Canadian, but I didn't see Trump on the ballot. >> Uh, I think Trump was extremely useful to Carney. It allowed him to distract attention from the Liberal Party's abysmal track record. >> Sure. And I think it's useful to Trump. Uh Trump promised to cut the size of the US government. Trump promised a whole bunch of stuff to distract opinion from that. He throws tariffs around. He decides he's going to enex Greenland. He decides Canada is going to be the 51st state. This is all a sideshow. It's fun for people to pay attention to these big picture things. Uh, in my experience, people who trade news lose money. >> You have to trade math. So, I watch this stuff. I was going to say with interest. That's not true. I watch it with horror. >> Yeah. >> But I'm now 73 years on Earth. The last time that a politician said something that came through was by accident, >> not by design. >> This is all a sideshow for you. What do you stay focused on? >> Arithmetic. >> Right. as an example. Uh I like the oil trade. >> Yeah, let's talk about that. >> Uh I believe that the oil industry worldwide, including its cost of capital and paying its social rent, taxes and royalties, requires about $60 US to break even. That includes cost of capital. So you make the stuff for 60 and you sell it for 52. >> And you do it 102 million times a day. >> Yeah. >> The industry is in slow motion liquidation. The consequence of that is that the industry is underinvesting in sustaining capital by between a billion and two billion dollars a day. >> Right? >> In a capital intensive business, if you starve the capital of business, you cannibalize the business. Doesn't matter maybe in 2026, maybe it doesn't matter in 2027 because you have so much stored capital to cannibalize, but in 2028, 2029, it starts to hurt. If you want to know what an oil company looks like that's been starved of capital, look at PEMMEX, where the producing base has declined by 85% in 30 years. Look at Pedvesa, the Venezuelan company, where the company's been starved of capital for 20 years. These are businesses that are not because of a lack of reserves, but rather a lack of investment, 15% of their former size. But are you not concerned about the underlying commodity in this case oil going down because of what happened in Venezuela? Trump is now boasting about importing 50 million barrels of oil. >> No. No. People are trading the headlines. >> Okay. >> First of all, regime change hasn't happened. >> Okay. >> Trump kidnapped the two top thugs or the the thug and his wife. Yeah. >> All the other thugs are still there. >> Okay. >> They control the military. Now, it may be that Trump has said to them, "We will allow you to stay on top and steal from the Venezuelan people as long as you take orders from us." >> Mhm. >> I don't know if that's happened. >> Sure. >> But I can tell you this. Uh, in order for Venezuela to get themselves back up to 3.5 million barrels a day from 800,000 barrels, it's going to take about a hundred billion dollars. >> Are you oil companies moving in? >> Uh, a lot would have to change. >> Okay. Uh Exxon pointed out they have been nationalized in Venezuela twice. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> And so much needs to change in Venezuela. Uh the infrastructure around oil and gas hasn't been upgraded for 22 years. >> Sure. >> The fiscal code >> is horrific, >> right? >> Uh a lot has to change and after it changes, >> yes, >> you don't increase it overnight. Spending a hundred billion dollars intelligently takes years. Similarly in Iran, you know, there's a lot of turmoil in Iran and people are suggesting that at long last that there will be some form of political liberalization in Iran and that in Iran the oil industry will come to be run rationally. I think that would be wonderful. Again, you are talking about $40 billion in deferred sustaining capital. >> Yes. >> You're talking about an oil industry where many of the highquality personnel >> left. >> Yeah. went to work elsewhere in the Middle East and they were they were replaced by political cadres from the Revolutionary Guard, >> right? >> Uh it takes a long time to turn these things around. >> Well, final question on just geopolitics in general. Recent turmoil in Venezuela, Trump threatening to take do the same thing with Colombia and other countries, um Middle East hotspot heating up, Armada moving to Iran. Do you does all this make you want to shift your priorities into North American deposits and assets away from you know geopolitically let's say unsound jurisdictions? >> One needs to examine one's premise with regards to politically unsafe jurisdictions. >> Okay. >> Uh I grew up in the People's Republic of California. Uh, I've been treated better personally in Congo, in Sudan, in Syria. >> Uh, I've been treated much better in jurisdictions that are believed to be risky than I have in my own jurisdiction. Uh, you may recall that I was a resident of British Columbia. I was treated very poorly here. Canadians don't like taxes, but I was subjected to the excess profits tariff, the vacant home tariff, the speculators tariff. Yeah. >> So, I would say the political risk is a function of perspective. I would say as an example, as a mineral exploration person in British Columbia, that the only politically safe part of British Columbia is where the Talllan or the Nishka >> Yeah. >> provide me political protection. >> I know that Canadians would prefer to think that Nicaragua was risky, >> right? because they would prefer not to look at their own actions. Similarly, in the United States, we assign political risk premiums to places that we can't spell or pronounce. >> Well, we generate a lot of risks for ourselves. >> Yeah. >> I was a I've been an oil and gas investor in Canada now for almost 50 years. I remember 20 years ago when the natural gas price tripled and as a consequence of that, the Alberta government doubled the percentage tax on natural gas, >> which is to say they nationalized a part of my wealth. >> Yeah. >> Because it was done by a Caucasian legislature in English according to the rule of law, they thought that money was somehow less gone. >> I would challenge that perception. >> I see. Final question. I promised the audience that you would talk about your top picks for 2026. Do you like oil and gas? Is there something else that we missed? If you had to pick a sector or asset class as your highest conviction long for the rest of the year. >> Uh it's very difficult for me to limit myself to a year. >> Sure. >> So if you give me three years, it's definitely there's definitely oil and gas. >> Okay. >> But I would tell people this uh at the beginning of 2025, I thought 2025 was going to be a great year. >> Yeah. I said at this conference in January of 2025, I think you guys, if you pay attention, are going to make 25 or 30% this year, they made 150. When that happens, you got to take some money off the table. >> Yeah. >> If you don't take some money off the table, you're a Uh people have fear of missing out. Everything that was true a year ago is true now. It's just that stuff is twice as expensive. That means stuff is half as good. It's difficult for people to get that straight. >> Yeah. I don't care what you sell unless you have some mistakes in your portfolio, in which case sell those. Don't wait for them to get back to even. But remember this, you have not made the money until you take the money. So if you're in this sector, if you're in the junior mining sector where your mistakes have made money, you have not made the money until you've taken some money. At the very least, get your bait back. >> I'm just curious what people have responded to you with. They hate it. They hate it. Which is how I know I'm saying the right thing. >> All right. Where can people get in touch with you? Uh you you you know if you surely people can find you. Yeah. >> Any of your listeners who are unhappy with their current bank. I suspect that's all of them. >> Should check out BattleBank. Battlebank.com. >> Uh >> you're launching soon by the way. >> Pardon me. >> You're you're launching the Battle Bank soon. >> We're launching BattleBank uh for public consumption February 17th. We're banking now. Okay, >> on a limited basis, >> uh assuming that you don't want to bank with me, that's okay. >> If you want to talk to me about natural resources, the best way to do that is to go to ruleinvestmentmedia.com. If you list your natural resource stocks, I personally will rank them 1 to 10, one being best, 10 being worst, >> and I'll comment on individual issues if I think my comments might have some value. >> Yeah. >> If you want to learn how to invest in natural resources, go to the rule classroom. The Rule Classroom has well over 300 hours of instructional programming and it's all free. >> Yes. >> ruleclassroom.com. >> Okay. We'll put the links down below. So, make sure to follow Rick. Always a pleasure to speak with you, Rick. >> My pleasure. Thank you. >> Thank you very much for coming to the show. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.