Middle East Risk, Oil, and the Global Energy SQUEEZE | Doomberg
Summary
Geopolitical Shock: The guest anticipates further Middle East escalation, highlighting how war dynamics are beginning to fracture global energy markets and drive regional price dislocations.
Energy Decoupling: The U.S. and Canada are positioned to “turtle up” with self-sufficient oil, gas, refining, and key commodities, likely instituting tiered domestic pricing that diverges from global benchmarks.
Europe Energy Crisis: Europe is portrayed as highly vulnerable due to hydrocarbon dependency, past nuclear closures, and lack of domestic drilling, necessitating a strategic shift to local production or risk being left behind.
LNG Bottlenecks: U.S. LNG export capacity is maxed while gas is hard to move, creating a paradox of U.S. gas glut versus European scarcity; Taiwan’s limited gas storage and reliance on Qatar underscore island-nation risks.
Oil Supply Disruption: Potential Strait closures and targeted strikes on critical infrastructure could impair global flows, with pronounced regional disparities (e.g., Dubai vs. Cushing) and timing gaps in futures delivery.
Government Intervention: G7 policy, SPR releases, and market management may suppress headline oil prices, making straightforward long-oil trades difficult despite underlying supply risks.
Infrastructure Vulnerability: Targeting of LNG facilities (e.g., Ras Laffan trains associated with Exxon Mobil) illustrates how high-value energy assets can face multi-year disruptions from precise strikes.
Great Reconciliation: Expect a policy and investment wave favoring domestic drilling, midstream build-out, and diversification, with inflation and volatility key macro implications.
Transcript
It sure looks like we've been in World War II since 2014 now, doesn't it? The one thing that I can tell you is the propaganda around this war has been staggering and so few people have their hands and all the different pots of propaganda out there like we tried to do. The parallel universe theory of the world is alive and well on the internet. THE AMOUNT OF uncertainty in the world is absolutely absurd. We have to look at the energy markets more closely today because the time is running out on Iran. President Trump earlier this week gave him a deadline of 5 days to negotiate and right now Iran doesn't seem to be willing to negotiate and the markets are changing tune yet again during this week. Really difficult to keep up. At first the market was euphoric. Now, uh, oil is down or sorry, oil is higher by 3 and a half 4% as we record this here on what is it? March 26th at 300 p.m. European time. What is that? 9:00 a.m. Oh, no, it's 10:00 a.m. Eastern. So, um, you know, take take the pricing as as you may, but we need to make get some clarity. And I've invited our let's call him our resident oil expert and energy expert back on the show. His name is Doomberg, writer of a phenomenal Substack, number three Substack writer in finance. Now, we talked about this last time, but a phenomenal source. But before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously. Bring phenomenal guests like Duneberg onto the program. Now, Duneberg, it is a great pleasure to have you back. Uh really appreciate your time, >> Kai. I'm just thrilled that you still have power. >> Yeah. Well, I just read a headline that we're firing back up or restarting some of a coal power plant. So, it's like I think we're winning this one. >> So, >> it's um energy crisis again, you know. Oh my goodness. I don't don't get me started. You already triggered me there. So, with that point, no. Um, Doomberg, in all seriousness, there's lots going on in the world. We got to talk about the looming energy crisis. Like, how close are we to a proper global energy crisis like we may might have seen in the 1970s? >> I think we're already there. Um, I think it's important to say that we're recording this on Thursday as you indicated and who knows what's going to happen by the time this gets out. Um the indications are our open- source intelligence gathering all the signs are there that um there's going to be significant escalation this weekend and that the 5day deadline that Trump um posted on Monday morning was coincidentally designed to cover this week uh in the markets and I think the market is starting to sniff that out this morning. you know, the the trade that tells you whether the market thinks peace or war is coming um is um long oil short the market short gold. And all three this morning are indicating that perhaps uh the cover has been removed from what's coming. It seems as though some kind of a ground invasion, boots on the ground, other forms of escalation are are on their way. Um, our perusal of our pro-Iranian feed indicates a uh an anticipation and a willingness to engage in that battle. Um, and so far from backing down or uh suing for peace, quite the opposite seems to be um the tone and tenor coming out of Iran both on Twitter and in Telegram channels and various other open-source intelligence uh avenues that one can peruse. And so um unsettling times but you know to your question Philippines um Australia, New Zealand um India um all the places you would expect to see the early signs of upheaval. Um we're seeing that it's only a matter of time before that wave, you know, spreads out to the rest of the world. Um, Europe is is, you know, in the crosshairs. It's going to suffer greatly. I I feel genuinely bad for our many European friends and subscribers. Um, North America will turtle up, as we wrote in a piece almost a week ago now called Project Turtle. Um, and so oil prices and supply and gasoline prices and supply in North America will be just fine. Not so much for Europe, um, and the island nations that I just talked about. Um, and so we shall see. But yeah, it's hard to imagine, you know, um, there's a a lot of talk and mystery about the oil prices, right? Um, boy, WTI is only in the 90s and Brent's only, you know, above 100. Um, you always have to remember that's for May delivery and the impact is going to come later. Um, and we're going to see significant impacts and I and I do think, you know, I was talking to Sir JJ Market Vibes Substack. um 48 hours after the war broke out on Sunday. It broke out on Friday. I talked to him on Sunday. And like I said, I don't think we're going to have a global oil market anymore, are we? And uh he was like, "Yeah, I don't think so." Cuz possession is 90% of the law. If you don't make your own oil, you're so And um no more strong evidence of that than what's going to happen in the weeks ahead. Last thing I'll say, huge hot spot is Taiwan. Um 11 days of natural gas supply reliant on Qatar, susceptible to to embargo and blockade. Um >> the S is about to hit the fan. >> Um S is about to get real and you know, Godspeed. >> Dumbberg, very sobering words, of course, but do we need to look at oil and LG, maybe gas separately, or is that bundled together? >> I mean, it depends where you are. Um it used to depend more for gas where you are but because the oil markets are fracturing geographically um it's it will also obviously depend where you are for oil but gas in particular you know was joking at Slack channel this morning with um some of Tony Gre's subscribers that uh I'd warned them that um natur could could trade negative um oil at $90 means a lot of drilling means a lot of associated gas and LG exports are topped out. There's only so so many places where that extra gas can go. And one of the counterintuitive outcomes of co-production in the US is that um we'll be drowning in gas as Europe is desperate for it. >> Um and gas is a gas. It's hard to move around. So, >> um, while you might be bullish energy that that, you know, as we've tried to warn people, >> um, high oil prices is deeply bearish for US natural gas because it's co-produced. Um, so here we are. >> Ju just on that topic of gas and North American gas and oil, oil and gas production, Canada of course can be a big supplier. Um, how readily can they step it up? Like I know Germany got refused gas delivery that's why we went to Qar but is Canada in a position to perhaps step it up. >> U not so much gas. Um I mean yes for domestic purposes they can produce a lot of gas and they can produce a lot of oil but in project turtle we walk through the numbers combined. Um Canada and the US are more than self-sufficient both in quantity of oil and quality of oil. If you mix in Venezuela under the fold, which will happen, um there's no issue of supply in North America, um refining capacity, um combined Canada and the US have more than enough refining capacity to meet domestic needs. net energy exporters. Fertilizer, all three major types, you know, nitrogen, potassium, phosphate, largely self-sufficient food stuffs, huge bread baskets in both countries. Uranium, Saskatchewan, huge uranium deposit. Helium, um, sulfur. So, all the things everyone else is worried about. um the US and Canada will combine to make sure that their domestic consumers don't pay global prices anymore. And this will do two things. It will lead to increased consumption in North America than a fully free market would otherwise dictate and create and exacerbate shortages around the world. And that's just the raw power politics of possession. And this is why we have been pounding the table since the beginning of Bloomberg that if you if you're Europe and you consume 38 exogles of hydrocarbons and you only produce six. Let me ask you a question. Kai, >> I was thinking about this before we hit record. Love coming on your show, by the way. Um, who's the most hated man in Europe today? >> It's probably a tie between Putin and Trump, you'd say. >> Yeah. Yeah. Trump starting to take the cake here. Yeah. >> Yeah. Okay. Um, Europe went from being dependent on Putin to being dependent on who? >> The most hat the other most hated man. Yeah. >> Correct. Um, and I don't think it's a coincidence that the person you're most dependent upon is suddenly hated because nobody likes to have a dependency. Well, there's one solution to that. Drill for your own stuff. You know, the I was on uh Chris Kefir's great podcast late last week, Decouple. Um we had a great discussion. Love Chris. Um it was all about Europe and how it got here. It's really amazing. And um there's consequences, man. And when this is over, because it will be over, um Europe better get its act together. Like if if not now, then when? >> What more evidence do you need? like no, your ability to regulate other economies is not a hedge against your lack of hydrocarbons. Just isn't. And solar panels will fail you. And in fact, last thing I want to say is there's a sort of a one-dimensional thinking going on that I see that oh, this shortage of oil is going to accelerate the adoption of wind and solar. No, it's not. It's going to expose just how useless wind and solar are relative to what hydrocarbons can deliver. And it's going to lead to a wave of what we call the great reconciliation. Drilling, midstream, diversification, domestic, all of these are words that are going to be saturating the zeitgeist in the years ahead. And if Europe doesn't change, I think it will. I think it has to. Um, then it's going to be wildly left behind. >> Yeah. It's uh it's amazing. It took about 12 months to realize that it was a mistake to shut off all our nuclear plants. Might have been less than 12 months. I don't know. I don't have the exact time, but it was a very short time frame. >> That's pretty pretty rich to hear that from Ursula Vanderland. It must be said. >> It was a Friday afternoon. Maybe not everybody heard it, right? >> The news dump, >> right? So maybe it wasn't aftermarket, but it was like a 3 p.m. 4 p.m. kind of press conference or something where where she mentioned it. Absolutely ridiculous. Um ju just on the term um you you mentioned US energy market might be completely decoupling from uh global markets um which just reminds me I remember getting gas in Qatar one point I paid like 50 cents a liter or less even um can't remember the exact price but it was way way cheaper than in Germany or in the US actually do do you see something like that happen just a massive discrepancy again US getting perhaps cartar price levels >> I mean it's got to be even cheaper now you would think they got they got plenty plenty of it stuck behind the wrong side of the straight um they're going to be burning a lot of oil to make u make electricity. Um yeah, I mean I I think the US will manage they'll still export but they are going to have tiered pricing one way or the other and um they're not going to allow American consumers to pay global prices in the in the leadup to a a midterm election that Trump looks already quite um exposed to. I don't know if you saw there were a couple elections in Florida. Um this >> he lost the Mara Lago district. >> Yeah. Now this is you know state representatives not Congress and low turnout type elections but u still it's kind of kind of a canary in the electoral coal mine. Um but I think the Republicans are going to get wiped out. um >> especially if this escalation both materializes and goes how we fear it might um which is not well unfortunately but we'll see um time will tell >> yeah um let's talk about that because it has impacts of course on inflation expectations as well if the US sort of decouples from the global energy markets um OECD just came out with their report uh inflation expectations much higher for 2026 4.2% 2% in the US. What what happens in that case if the US says, "Okay, we're decoupling. We're not we don't care about the pricing anymore. This is going to be our domestic price per liter of gas or per barrel of oil or whatever it is." Um, how do you see that impact maybe uh the monetary and fiscal policy as well? Maybe let's let's bridge that. >> I think all roads lead to the money printer. Um, this is uh this is for all the marbles. You know, we've been we've been articulating that we've been in World War II since 2014. Some people thought we were being a bit hyperbolic. Um I think it sure looks like we've been in World War II since 2014 now, doesn't it? You have um hot war in Ukraine with the US and Europe feeding weapons to its proxy. Hot war in the Middle East with Russia and China feeding weapons to its proxy. I love the outrage u that Russia is supplying drones to Iran. Of course, Russia is supplying drones to Iran. This is World War II. It's what you do. Um and so you know this is truly forth turning type stuff and one wonders whether the current westernbased global financial system can withstand the shock that's coming and so all of these projections about inflation and GDP growth. This is we're heading into a singularity and in physics you know when you head into a singularity the laws of physics break down and it's impossible to predict what comes out >> the other side of it and um I think economically so many moving parts were this is this is the big one I'm I'm afraid um and so how the Middle East will look in five years how Europe will look in five years how the global financial system will look in five years how the relative balance of power between China and the United States will look in five years. All of this is being scrambled today and decided today >> perhaps this weekend. >> I don't even know how to follow up this. There's massive questions we need need to ask, but I'm not sure any of us has the answer to quite honestly, Dumbber. It's like really how is this going to play out over the weekend? Like what are the implications? You just threw in Russia, you threw in China as well. Um we might have talked about it, but the US China seems to be the if you really zoom out far that seems to be the main main event here. Um, o overall like how is the the Iran situation or the Middle Eastern situation impacting that relationship right now? It seemed like US and China were on somewhat chummy or friendly friendlier terms um going into this. >> Oh no. I mean it's it's okay keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Um they were in the middle of a full-blown economic war. They may have reached a temporary dant out of necessity. Uh but the Chinese have been preparing for this war. Why else were they buying a million barrels a day of extra oil last year and sticking it in the ground? You know, it's kind of hard to to create content in a fastmoving environment like this. We have our monthly doom zoom and of course this month is called After Herm. Um the subtitle is uh punctuated equilibrium in the energy markets. Um it'll probably require a re-record over the weekend, but we took a sort of a long-term view. And if you just look at the physics of it, um China needs the Middle East more than the US does now. Um, US foreign policy was driven by the false belief that oil production in the US at peak and for 40 years the US went abroad in search of oil and that's why we had all those forever wars. The shale revolution changed that and it doesn't need the Middle East anymore and China sure does. So, one wonders whether this isn't a strategic retreat and um you know burning down all the buildings and the train stations on the way out the door. >> Um so the long-term view Iran has been attacking the US military bases in the Arab countries. An amazing article in New York Times yesterday confessing as much. We had picked this up on our open source feeds two weeks ago. Um the US bases in the Arab countries have been all but abandoned. This is China's strategic objectives, not just Iran's. And China's providing an enormous amount of help to Iran. Satellite targeting, spy ships, weaponry. You think Iran is going to be short, rare earths? Of course it's not. Do you think Iran is going to get every drone Russia can spare? Of course it is. This is a battle for This is it. This is the big one. And um we're going to see, you know, in a way um you can't get to the first turning without getting through the fourth. I suppose we're just resigned to the fact that the big bang is coming. >> Like China hasn't really shown up, at least Western media, China, China's role is being downplayed or not even mentioned really. So, um, do do you see them get involved maybe on a kinetic side as well? If if the US starts to invade, uh, maybe send crown troops over the weekend, do you will China show up? I don't think they need to show up with troops, but do you think Iran on the 19th day of the war can drop two missiles right down the middle of trains four and six at Ros Laughen, which happen to be the ones that Exon Mobile owns without the help of Chinese satellite targeting. This country that has been the most sanctioned country in the world, Iran, is just doing this all on its own. I mean, Iran is technically advanced, formidable country. I'm not here to diminish Iranian capabilities, but um after 19 days of being told that their missile launchers have been destroyed and Iran has been defeated like no other country's been defeated, all the standard stuff that Trump says, um here we go. Um they call their shot. We're going to take out Ross Laughen. And two hours later, two missiles dropped down right in the middle of two trains that they decided to hit. I I just please this is this is in the same way that it's not Ukraine blowing up Russian oil and gas facilities. Ukraine isn't firing long range missiles into Russia. That's NATO >> and and Iran isn't expressing the full power of North Korea, Russia, China and Iran. And that's why the war is as challenging as it as it is. I think >> Israel and the US made a significant miscalculation. >> Well, President Trump postponed the meeting, let's say postponed here in air quotes, actually cuz uh we didn't feel like we got the full story on the postponement of the meeting that was supposed to happen here by the end of this month. Um is that because the the relationship went sideways? It it seems awfully quiet. I keep repeating myself here, but it seems awfully quiet when it comes to West versus China right now uh in terms of like language in that regard. Kai, the one thing that I can tell you is the propaganda around this war has been staggering >> and so few people have their hands in all the different pots of propaganda out there like we tried to do. The parallel universe theory of the world is alive and well on the internet. And um just because European media and propaganda outlets are ignoring China's role in this war doesn't mean it's not happening. >> Do you know what I mean? And um just because Fox News is telling its conservativeleaning American viewers that Iran is defeated and that this is in wrap-up mode because that's what they're saying. Um doesn't make it so. Um do you see what Trump said last night that um Iran has asked him to be the supreme leader? like this is so wildly out of sync with with reality to the extent that it can be perceived from here >> that just all roads lead to a big clash I think. And look, forget about what Trump says. Um, look at what the US military is doing. >> Troops are going to the Middle East, >> right? >> Well, we've seen that playbook before. It's hard to jump in there, but we've seen that. It's like it's taken two weeks to to get all the aircraft carriers and everybody in position only to strike and say, "Well, the negotiations didn't go anywhere. Let's go." >> It seems like it's the same playbook right now in terms of >> fiveday reprieve on Monday because the Marines are arriving on Friday. I mean, it's, you know, the market is finally waking up to it. It's been an amazing week in the markets. Um, you know, >> yeah, it gave us a few opportunities to offload some more positions higher at higher prices. So I tell you that right. Um but Doomberg maybe a good followup like a I'm not I'm not sure how to phrase that question because it seems like there there are various narratives and maybe and just to ask you to summarize what has actually been happening uh in a in a we only have like 8 minutes nine minutes left here. It's it seems like we should have started perhaps with that like what is the status quo right now like because as as you said like the fog of war is very very dense and uh we're getting a lot of different messages here from hey we're negotiating to like hey I've never heard from you guys like who who are you right um trying to figure out what is actually happening at that >> our view um is that um Iran had a plan and they basically had a dead man which is they warned the US that if they struck Iran, um authority and power would be distributed to dozens of local commanders and um the strait would be closed. And the very definition of success that Trump and Netanyahu started with regime change would assure that the strait would stay closed because what is needed to open the straight is a unified government that these commanders will listen to. And so if you have an uprising in Tyrron, which we don't think is likely um and that government is toppled, that doesn't mean the strait's going to open. Means the reverse. It remains oil and gas producing facilities which we described in a piece this week as you know the light bulb aisle at your at your local hardware store uh at least as measured in fragility and all the light bulbs are worth a billion dollars. Um they're going to take all those things out. They've proven the capacity to do it. They just did it with Ross Laughen. This was such a profound moment. They called the shots. No air defense could stop it. Boom. $20 billion a year in revenue knocked out for five years with one push of a button. 100 billion in revenue. How many buttons they got left to push guy? A lot. So, I don't think that this realization um has dawned on the president. Maybe it has. Who knows? I'm sure I'm missing something. We're all doing our best to navigate through the fog. Um, but I I I think that Iran has been preparing for this, you know. Um, and we'll see. I, as an American citizen, I hope that we're wrong. Um, I I hope that the war ends soon. I hope that no more US servicemen and women are injured or die. Um, that the US accomplishes its objectives, whatever they are. Um, and that as few casualties emerge. We are anti-war for a reason. no different now, but you know what I want to see happen and what I think we'll see happen are often two different things. >> I I have to ask you D like what are the best sources to follow all of this? I think it's a good follow-up because you you mentioned you try to source it but it's impossible like I try to think alazer and other things just to get both sides or as many sides as possible. >> So it might be too late to do this. I mean, you could start by reading the English language versions of the official media outlets of as many countries as you can, >> which is what we used to do. We wrote a piece um >> couple of days after the war started where we explained an experiment we did. I don't know if you you managed to read it. It was called digital fog. Um it was a fascinating experiment, Kai. We we bought a fresh iPad and got a new email address and a new Apple ID credential and you know, set up the iPad. This was on the Saturday after the war began. And um the only app on that iPad still is Twitter. And then we spent the first hour training the algorithm that were pro- Iranian. And then we just kept refreshing the four UTAP. It was shocking. It was amazing. It was unsettling. It was disturbing. It was all of those things. But what it also allowed us to do was to systematically build a list of reasonably credible signal from the other side of this war. How did you get on that list? You published interesting things that largely turned out to be true. So if somebody says, "Hey, Iran just took out FAD Radar in Qatar and two and a half days later I see that story in the Financial Times. That contributor on Twitter gets on our list." And how to get off the list is to publish an obvious AI deep fake or to propagate fakes that that are so obvious that you should know better. And so, okay, you're not a serious source of signal. You are a propagandist. And there are thoughtful, smart people who have a pro- Iranian bend um out there and we curate a list of them. And we wrote about this whole experience in digital fog. >> Okay. >> And we'll link to that. We'll make an effort to link that because it's I think it's usually important to understand, okay, who's >> who on what side, but also who's actually reporting properly. Doesn't matter what side they're on. >> 100%. Look, here's here's we had two iPads next to each other. The four-year tab for the the Heritage Dune Twitter account and the four-year tab for this new one. And two wildly different worlds, right? And um both sides, by the way, filled with junk and fake and AI and engagement farmers and propagandists. Yes, both sides are filled with it. And both sides have signal, >> intelligent people doing their best to give the viewpoint of the other side. >> And I believe that has has put us in a position to have a better understanding of when Trump is bluffing or you know are we really going to see a meaningful ceasefire and so on. C >> c can you share one name with us or two a couple names um because our audience is mostly in the west of course like who would you follow right now? Is that possible? Hemed Resa A. Um he gives these daily war updates. So like um Iran war update number 25, focus on Iranian strategic uh narrative. H A mi d r e z a z. Um that's his Twitter handle. Um I saw him being interviewed on CNN, made it to Hidden Forces and pretty reasonable guy. You know, he's just giving and so anything that he restacks or reposts or people he interacts with. Now, look, again, I I'm not saying everything he says is true or um and by the way, if you go down this road, you should be warned that you're going to see an awful lot of anti-semitism. >> Um the ugly side of Twitter, if the algorithm thinks that you're interested in what this guy has to say, it's going to be feeding you an awful lot of ugly stuff. >> Um and it's it's the ugly underbelly of of Twitter as well. And so, um I wanted to put that out there. Fair warning. >> Um >> absolutely, the trigger warning. >> Yeah, >> absolutely. You have to you have you have to um sort through a lot of garbage >> to find a morsel of information that will make you better. >> Absolutely. Um Dick, we always talk oil prices, gas prices as well and you know just trying to get a bit of sense of it all. Um personally I'm a bit surprised that oil isn't higher. Um just what are some of the possible scenarios or what are you looking at that keeps prices somewhat stable if if that's even the right term? Um is it alternative supply routes, pipelines? uh is it uh just because there was so much over supply? I'm just curious what your theory on that topic is. >> Yeah, we tried to explain this um as well because look, we were surprised Kai, I think I'd be honest with you if if you and I were talking before the war and you gave me the fact set hot war in the Middle East straight from closed for a month. Um targeted of the energy facilities um and you gave me an overunder of 150, Brent, I'd have taken the over. I think you probably would have too. >> Yeah. Um and here we are. What explains this? Well, there is an awful lot of oil in storage. China has a billion and a half barrels itself. You know, um there is capacity to produce more. There is demand destruction that will come. Um but I think we're at the early days of this and how the front month oil contracts are behaving. This is again another example of what does price mean in the commodity world. price is for a certain quantity of a certain quality at a certain place at a specific time. Um, and it's never been more important to recognize what price you're looking at on the screen. Right now, the WTI oil price, the oil price is for May delivery in Oklahoma, Cushing. Um, is there really going to be much in the way of disruption to the delivery of oil to Cushing um, in May? Probably not. Um, does that mean that the market doesn't want to signal to producers that it needs to produce more? Sure. And that's what it's doing. And now the long end of the curve is pricing in peace because the market is kind of probably hoping for peace. And so we'll see what happens if things go as we think they will this weekend >> um to the long end of the curve. Um, but we're seeing these regional disparities. You know, I saw a lot of talk on Twitter about the Dubai market. Yeah, of course oil in Dubai in the middle of a war is going to be more expensive than oil in Oklahoma. This is not surprising. Last point I would say is there is of course an overt attempt by the by Bessant and Chris Wright and the other G7 countries to keep the price of oil down. That is just a fact. That is you have to know that as a as an investor. Making money going long oil in a war is the equivalent of trying to make money by shorting banks in a financial crisis. The government doesn't like it. They'll make shorting illegal. They'll manipulate the markets. They will release the SPR. Your counterparty in this trade is the G7 and the big cash cannon it has behind it. Guess what? Scott Besson's not going to be facing a margin call. He's got a Twitter press behind him. So, he's on the other side of your trade. And you need to know that as an investor. You could say it's unfair and you could lament about it on Twitter, but it's utterly predictable. This is not the price of chips, either semiconductor or um or potato. This is the price of oil, gas, the foundational commodities that make the world run. The government's not going to just sit back and watch oil go to $300. It might print there. It's never staying there. >> Um so I digress. >> Yeah. Now, I'm trying to find a way to end on a positive note here, but it's uh I think it's impossible quite honestly right now. Um although I just somebody sent me a text message while we were chatting here. Duneberg is apparently Iran replied to the 15 point peace plan and the markets are turning around a little bit. Um at least they've jumped by a couple percent point whatever that means. So I haven't really had a chance to investigate but I'm trying to find something positive here. >> I don't know. I I'm seeing quotes on my screen that are >> inconsistent with that. But no I here's the possible thing. Let's hope um we're wrong. You know, I've never wanted to be I've never wanted to be more wrong in my life. >> No. No. And it's getting worse by the day. So, Doomberg, very sobering conversation, but a much needed conversation. So, really appreciate your your clear words. Really appreciate also you sharing some intel with us there on uh like who to follow, what to look at because I think that's what people need right now. Um that fog of war, as I mentioned, is so ultra dense. So, these conversations are hugely helpful. Dumbberg, thank you so much for coming on. Um Duneberg.com of course is the website. Anywhere else where they can follow you? And >> that's where that's where everything is. Yeah. Go ahead over to duneberg.com. Uh head over to duneberg.com. Kai, great to talk with you again. And um we'll reconnect in a few months, I'm sure. >> Looking forward to it. Really really looking forward to that. Hopefully on a more positive note, for whatever reason, whenever we chat, it's something it's it's grim. I don't know. We need to find a more positive topic. >> I'm changing the name. I'm changing the name. >> Absolutely. No. Fantastic. Dubber, thank you so much. And everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in. Uh, a very sobering conversation, a muchneeded conversation, very timely. Uh, I hope everybody's staying safe out there. Don't let emotions run your investments for you. I think that's the most important thing. Do your homework. Try to look beside or just just check your check your facts. That's all I can tell you. Uh, don't just listen to our podcast. Get as much information as possible before you do anything. Thank you so much for tuning in and take care.
Middle East Risk, Oil, and the Global Energy SQUEEZE | Doomberg
Summary
Transcript
It sure looks like we've been in World War II since 2014 now, doesn't it? The one thing that I can tell you is the propaganda around this war has been staggering and so few people have their hands and all the different pots of propaganda out there like we tried to do. The parallel universe theory of the world is alive and well on the internet. THE AMOUNT OF uncertainty in the world is absolutely absurd. We have to look at the energy markets more closely today because the time is running out on Iran. President Trump earlier this week gave him a deadline of 5 days to negotiate and right now Iran doesn't seem to be willing to negotiate and the markets are changing tune yet again during this week. Really difficult to keep up. At first the market was euphoric. Now, uh, oil is down or sorry, oil is higher by 3 and a half 4% as we record this here on what is it? March 26th at 300 p.m. European time. What is that? 9:00 a.m. Oh, no, it's 10:00 a.m. Eastern. So, um, you know, take take the pricing as as you may, but we need to make get some clarity. And I've invited our let's call him our resident oil expert and energy expert back on the show. His name is Doomberg, writer of a phenomenal Substack, number three Substack writer in finance. Now, we talked about this last time, but a phenomenal source. But before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously. Bring phenomenal guests like Duneberg onto the program. Now, Duneberg, it is a great pleasure to have you back. Uh really appreciate your time, >> Kai. I'm just thrilled that you still have power. >> Yeah. Well, I just read a headline that we're firing back up or restarting some of a coal power plant. So, it's like I think we're winning this one. >> So, >> it's um energy crisis again, you know. Oh my goodness. I don't don't get me started. You already triggered me there. So, with that point, no. Um, Doomberg, in all seriousness, there's lots going on in the world. We got to talk about the looming energy crisis. Like, how close are we to a proper global energy crisis like we may might have seen in the 1970s? >> I think we're already there. Um, I think it's important to say that we're recording this on Thursday as you indicated and who knows what's going to happen by the time this gets out. Um the indications are our open- source intelligence gathering all the signs are there that um there's going to be significant escalation this weekend and that the 5day deadline that Trump um posted on Monday morning was coincidentally designed to cover this week uh in the markets and I think the market is starting to sniff that out this morning. you know, the the trade that tells you whether the market thinks peace or war is coming um is um long oil short the market short gold. And all three this morning are indicating that perhaps uh the cover has been removed from what's coming. It seems as though some kind of a ground invasion, boots on the ground, other forms of escalation are are on their way. Um, our perusal of our pro-Iranian feed indicates a uh an anticipation and a willingness to engage in that battle. Um, and so far from backing down or uh suing for peace, quite the opposite seems to be um the tone and tenor coming out of Iran both on Twitter and in Telegram channels and various other open-source intelligence uh avenues that one can peruse. And so um unsettling times but you know to your question Philippines um Australia, New Zealand um India um all the places you would expect to see the early signs of upheaval. Um we're seeing that it's only a matter of time before that wave, you know, spreads out to the rest of the world. Um, Europe is is, you know, in the crosshairs. It's going to suffer greatly. I I feel genuinely bad for our many European friends and subscribers. Um, North America will turtle up, as we wrote in a piece almost a week ago now called Project Turtle. Um, and so oil prices and supply and gasoline prices and supply in North America will be just fine. Not so much for Europe, um, and the island nations that I just talked about. Um, and so we shall see. But yeah, it's hard to imagine, you know, um, there's a a lot of talk and mystery about the oil prices, right? Um, boy, WTI is only in the 90s and Brent's only, you know, above 100. Um, you always have to remember that's for May delivery and the impact is going to come later. Um, and we're going to see significant impacts and I and I do think, you know, I was talking to Sir JJ Market Vibes Substack. um 48 hours after the war broke out on Sunday. It broke out on Friday. I talked to him on Sunday. And like I said, I don't think we're going to have a global oil market anymore, are we? And uh he was like, "Yeah, I don't think so." Cuz possession is 90% of the law. If you don't make your own oil, you're so And um no more strong evidence of that than what's going to happen in the weeks ahead. Last thing I'll say, huge hot spot is Taiwan. Um 11 days of natural gas supply reliant on Qatar, susceptible to to embargo and blockade. Um >> the S is about to hit the fan. >> Um S is about to get real and you know, Godspeed. >> Dumbberg, very sobering words, of course, but do we need to look at oil and LG, maybe gas separately, or is that bundled together? >> I mean, it depends where you are. Um it used to depend more for gas where you are but because the oil markets are fracturing geographically um it's it will also obviously depend where you are for oil but gas in particular you know was joking at Slack channel this morning with um some of Tony Gre's subscribers that uh I'd warned them that um natur could could trade negative um oil at $90 means a lot of drilling means a lot of associated gas and LG exports are topped out. There's only so so many places where that extra gas can go. And one of the counterintuitive outcomes of co-production in the US is that um we'll be drowning in gas as Europe is desperate for it. >> Um and gas is a gas. It's hard to move around. So, >> um, while you might be bullish energy that that, you know, as we've tried to warn people, >> um, high oil prices is deeply bearish for US natural gas because it's co-produced. Um, so here we are. >> Ju just on that topic of gas and North American gas and oil, oil and gas production, Canada of course can be a big supplier. Um, how readily can they step it up? Like I know Germany got refused gas delivery that's why we went to Qar but is Canada in a position to perhaps step it up. >> U not so much gas. Um I mean yes for domestic purposes they can produce a lot of gas and they can produce a lot of oil but in project turtle we walk through the numbers combined. Um Canada and the US are more than self-sufficient both in quantity of oil and quality of oil. If you mix in Venezuela under the fold, which will happen, um there's no issue of supply in North America, um refining capacity, um combined Canada and the US have more than enough refining capacity to meet domestic needs. net energy exporters. Fertilizer, all three major types, you know, nitrogen, potassium, phosphate, largely self-sufficient food stuffs, huge bread baskets in both countries. Uranium, Saskatchewan, huge uranium deposit. Helium, um, sulfur. So, all the things everyone else is worried about. um the US and Canada will combine to make sure that their domestic consumers don't pay global prices anymore. And this will do two things. It will lead to increased consumption in North America than a fully free market would otherwise dictate and create and exacerbate shortages around the world. And that's just the raw power politics of possession. And this is why we have been pounding the table since the beginning of Bloomberg that if you if you're Europe and you consume 38 exogles of hydrocarbons and you only produce six. Let me ask you a question. Kai, >> I was thinking about this before we hit record. Love coming on your show, by the way. Um, who's the most hated man in Europe today? >> It's probably a tie between Putin and Trump, you'd say. >> Yeah. Yeah. Trump starting to take the cake here. Yeah. >> Yeah. Okay. Um, Europe went from being dependent on Putin to being dependent on who? >> The most hat the other most hated man. Yeah. >> Correct. Um, and I don't think it's a coincidence that the person you're most dependent upon is suddenly hated because nobody likes to have a dependency. Well, there's one solution to that. Drill for your own stuff. You know, the I was on uh Chris Kefir's great podcast late last week, Decouple. Um we had a great discussion. Love Chris. Um it was all about Europe and how it got here. It's really amazing. And um there's consequences, man. And when this is over, because it will be over, um Europe better get its act together. Like if if not now, then when? >> What more evidence do you need? like no, your ability to regulate other economies is not a hedge against your lack of hydrocarbons. Just isn't. And solar panels will fail you. And in fact, last thing I want to say is there's a sort of a one-dimensional thinking going on that I see that oh, this shortage of oil is going to accelerate the adoption of wind and solar. No, it's not. It's going to expose just how useless wind and solar are relative to what hydrocarbons can deliver. And it's going to lead to a wave of what we call the great reconciliation. Drilling, midstream, diversification, domestic, all of these are words that are going to be saturating the zeitgeist in the years ahead. And if Europe doesn't change, I think it will. I think it has to. Um, then it's going to be wildly left behind. >> Yeah. It's uh it's amazing. It took about 12 months to realize that it was a mistake to shut off all our nuclear plants. Might have been less than 12 months. I don't know. I don't have the exact time, but it was a very short time frame. >> That's pretty pretty rich to hear that from Ursula Vanderland. It must be said. >> It was a Friday afternoon. Maybe not everybody heard it, right? >> The news dump, >> right? So maybe it wasn't aftermarket, but it was like a 3 p.m. 4 p.m. kind of press conference or something where where she mentioned it. Absolutely ridiculous. Um ju just on the term um you you mentioned US energy market might be completely decoupling from uh global markets um which just reminds me I remember getting gas in Qatar one point I paid like 50 cents a liter or less even um can't remember the exact price but it was way way cheaper than in Germany or in the US actually do do you see something like that happen just a massive discrepancy again US getting perhaps cartar price levels >> I mean it's got to be even cheaper now you would think they got they got plenty plenty of it stuck behind the wrong side of the straight um they're going to be burning a lot of oil to make u make electricity. Um yeah, I mean I I think the US will manage they'll still export but they are going to have tiered pricing one way or the other and um they're not going to allow American consumers to pay global prices in the in the leadup to a a midterm election that Trump looks already quite um exposed to. I don't know if you saw there were a couple elections in Florida. Um this >> he lost the Mara Lago district. >> Yeah. Now this is you know state representatives not Congress and low turnout type elections but u still it's kind of kind of a canary in the electoral coal mine. Um but I think the Republicans are going to get wiped out. um >> especially if this escalation both materializes and goes how we fear it might um which is not well unfortunately but we'll see um time will tell >> yeah um let's talk about that because it has impacts of course on inflation expectations as well if the US sort of decouples from the global energy markets um OECD just came out with their report uh inflation expectations much higher for 2026 4.2% 2% in the US. What what happens in that case if the US says, "Okay, we're decoupling. We're not we don't care about the pricing anymore. This is going to be our domestic price per liter of gas or per barrel of oil or whatever it is." Um, how do you see that impact maybe uh the monetary and fiscal policy as well? Maybe let's let's bridge that. >> I think all roads lead to the money printer. Um, this is uh this is for all the marbles. You know, we've been we've been articulating that we've been in World War II since 2014. Some people thought we were being a bit hyperbolic. Um I think it sure looks like we've been in World War II since 2014 now, doesn't it? You have um hot war in Ukraine with the US and Europe feeding weapons to its proxy. Hot war in the Middle East with Russia and China feeding weapons to its proxy. I love the outrage u that Russia is supplying drones to Iran. Of course, Russia is supplying drones to Iran. This is World War II. It's what you do. Um and so you know this is truly forth turning type stuff and one wonders whether the current westernbased global financial system can withstand the shock that's coming and so all of these projections about inflation and GDP growth. This is we're heading into a singularity and in physics you know when you head into a singularity the laws of physics break down and it's impossible to predict what comes out >> the other side of it and um I think economically so many moving parts were this is this is the big one I'm I'm afraid um and so how the Middle East will look in five years how Europe will look in five years how the global financial system will look in five years how the relative balance of power between China and the United States will look in five years. All of this is being scrambled today and decided today >> perhaps this weekend. >> I don't even know how to follow up this. There's massive questions we need need to ask, but I'm not sure any of us has the answer to quite honestly, Dumbber. It's like really how is this going to play out over the weekend? Like what are the implications? You just threw in Russia, you threw in China as well. Um we might have talked about it, but the US China seems to be the if you really zoom out far that seems to be the main main event here. Um, o overall like how is the the Iran situation or the Middle Eastern situation impacting that relationship right now? It seemed like US and China were on somewhat chummy or friendly friendlier terms um going into this. >> Oh no. I mean it's it's okay keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Um they were in the middle of a full-blown economic war. They may have reached a temporary dant out of necessity. Uh but the Chinese have been preparing for this war. Why else were they buying a million barrels a day of extra oil last year and sticking it in the ground? You know, it's kind of hard to to create content in a fastmoving environment like this. We have our monthly doom zoom and of course this month is called After Herm. Um the subtitle is uh punctuated equilibrium in the energy markets. Um it'll probably require a re-record over the weekend, but we took a sort of a long-term view. And if you just look at the physics of it, um China needs the Middle East more than the US does now. Um, US foreign policy was driven by the false belief that oil production in the US at peak and for 40 years the US went abroad in search of oil and that's why we had all those forever wars. The shale revolution changed that and it doesn't need the Middle East anymore and China sure does. So, one wonders whether this isn't a strategic retreat and um you know burning down all the buildings and the train stations on the way out the door. >> Um so the long-term view Iran has been attacking the US military bases in the Arab countries. An amazing article in New York Times yesterday confessing as much. We had picked this up on our open source feeds two weeks ago. Um the US bases in the Arab countries have been all but abandoned. This is China's strategic objectives, not just Iran's. And China's providing an enormous amount of help to Iran. Satellite targeting, spy ships, weaponry. You think Iran is going to be short, rare earths? Of course it's not. Do you think Iran is going to get every drone Russia can spare? Of course it is. This is a battle for This is it. This is the big one. And um we're going to see, you know, in a way um you can't get to the first turning without getting through the fourth. I suppose we're just resigned to the fact that the big bang is coming. >> Like China hasn't really shown up, at least Western media, China, China's role is being downplayed or not even mentioned really. So, um, do do you see them get involved maybe on a kinetic side as well? If if the US starts to invade, uh, maybe send crown troops over the weekend, do you will China show up? I don't think they need to show up with troops, but do you think Iran on the 19th day of the war can drop two missiles right down the middle of trains four and six at Ros Laughen, which happen to be the ones that Exon Mobile owns without the help of Chinese satellite targeting. This country that has been the most sanctioned country in the world, Iran, is just doing this all on its own. I mean, Iran is technically advanced, formidable country. I'm not here to diminish Iranian capabilities, but um after 19 days of being told that their missile launchers have been destroyed and Iran has been defeated like no other country's been defeated, all the standard stuff that Trump says, um here we go. Um they call their shot. We're going to take out Ross Laughen. And two hours later, two missiles dropped down right in the middle of two trains that they decided to hit. I I just please this is this is in the same way that it's not Ukraine blowing up Russian oil and gas facilities. Ukraine isn't firing long range missiles into Russia. That's NATO >> and and Iran isn't expressing the full power of North Korea, Russia, China and Iran. And that's why the war is as challenging as it as it is. I think >> Israel and the US made a significant miscalculation. >> Well, President Trump postponed the meeting, let's say postponed here in air quotes, actually cuz uh we didn't feel like we got the full story on the postponement of the meeting that was supposed to happen here by the end of this month. Um is that because the the relationship went sideways? It it seems awfully quiet. I keep repeating myself here, but it seems awfully quiet when it comes to West versus China right now uh in terms of like language in that regard. Kai, the one thing that I can tell you is the propaganda around this war has been staggering >> and so few people have their hands in all the different pots of propaganda out there like we tried to do. The parallel universe theory of the world is alive and well on the internet. And um just because European media and propaganda outlets are ignoring China's role in this war doesn't mean it's not happening. >> Do you know what I mean? And um just because Fox News is telling its conservativeleaning American viewers that Iran is defeated and that this is in wrap-up mode because that's what they're saying. Um doesn't make it so. Um do you see what Trump said last night that um Iran has asked him to be the supreme leader? like this is so wildly out of sync with with reality to the extent that it can be perceived from here >> that just all roads lead to a big clash I think. And look, forget about what Trump says. Um, look at what the US military is doing. >> Troops are going to the Middle East, >> right? >> Well, we've seen that playbook before. It's hard to jump in there, but we've seen that. It's like it's taken two weeks to to get all the aircraft carriers and everybody in position only to strike and say, "Well, the negotiations didn't go anywhere. Let's go." >> It seems like it's the same playbook right now in terms of >> fiveday reprieve on Monday because the Marines are arriving on Friday. I mean, it's, you know, the market is finally waking up to it. It's been an amazing week in the markets. Um, you know, >> yeah, it gave us a few opportunities to offload some more positions higher at higher prices. So I tell you that right. Um but Doomberg maybe a good followup like a I'm not I'm not sure how to phrase that question because it seems like there there are various narratives and maybe and just to ask you to summarize what has actually been happening uh in a in a we only have like 8 minutes nine minutes left here. It's it seems like we should have started perhaps with that like what is the status quo right now like because as as you said like the fog of war is very very dense and uh we're getting a lot of different messages here from hey we're negotiating to like hey I've never heard from you guys like who who are you right um trying to figure out what is actually happening at that >> our view um is that um Iran had a plan and they basically had a dead man which is they warned the US that if they struck Iran, um authority and power would be distributed to dozens of local commanders and um the strait would be closed. And the very definition of success that Trump and Netanyahu started with regime change would assure that the strait would stay closed because what is needed to open the straight is a unified government that these commanders will listen to. And so if you have an uprising in Tyrron, which we don't think is likely um and that government is toppled, that doesn't mean the strait's going to open. Means the reverse. It remains oil and gas producing facilities which we described in a piece this week as you know the light bulb aisle at your at your local hardware store uh at least as measured in fragility and all the light bulbs are worth a billion dollars. Um they're going to take all those things out. They've proven the capacity to do it. They just did it with Ross Laughen. This was such a profound moment. They called the shots. No air defense could stop it. Boom. $20 billion a year in revenue knocked out for five years with one push of a button. 100 billion in revenue. How many buttons they got left to push guy? A lot. So, I don't think that this realization um has dawned on the president. Maybe it has. Who knows? I'm sure I'm missing something. We're all doing our best to navigate through the fog. Um, but I I I think that Iran has been preparing for this, you know. Um, and we'll see. I, as an American citizen, I hope that we're wrong. Um, I I hope that the war ends soon. I hope that no more US servicemen and women are injured or die. Um, that the US accomplishes its objectives, whatever they are. Um, and that as few casualties emerge. We are anti-war for a reason. no different now, but you know what I want to see happen and what I think we'll see happen are often two different things. >> I I have to ask you D like what are the best sources to follow all of this? I think it's a good follow-up because you you mentioned you try to source it but it's impossible like I try to think alazer and other things just to get both sides or as many sides as possible. >> So it might be too late to do this. I mean, you could start by reading the English language versions of the official media outlets of as many countries as you can, >> which is what we used to do. We wrote a piece um >> couple of days after the war started where we explained an experiment we did. I don't know if you you managed to read it. It was called digital fog. Um it was a fascinating experiment, Kai. We we bought a fresh iPad and got a new email address and a new Apple ID credential and you know, set up the iPad. This was on the Saturday after the war began. And um the only app on that iPad still is Twitter. And then we spent the first hour training the algorithm that were pro- Iranian. And then we just kept refreshing the four UTAP. It was shocking. It was amazing. It was unsettling. It was disturbing. It was all of those things. But what it also allowed us to do was to systematically build a list of reasonably credible signal from the other side of this war. How did you get on that list? You published interesting things that largely turned out to be true. So if somebody says, "Hey, Iran just took out FAD Radar in Qatar and two and a half days later I see that story in the Financial Times. That contributor on Twitter gets on our list." And how to get off the list is to publish an obvious AI deep fake or to propagate fakes that that are so obvious that you should know better. And so, okay, you're not a serious source of signal. You are a propagandist. And there are thoughtful, smart people who have a pro- Iranian bend um out there and we curate a list of them. And we wrote about this whole experience in digital fog. >> Okay. >> And we'll link to that. We'll make an effort to link that because it's I think it's usually important to understand, okay, who's >> who on what side, but also who's actually reporting properly. Doesn't matter what side they're on. >> 100%. Look, here's here's we had two iPads next to each other. The four-year tab for the the Heritage Dune Twitter account and the four-year tab for this new one. And two wildly different worlds, right? And um both sides, by the way, filled with junk and fake and AI and engagement farmers and propagandists. Yes, both sides are filled with it. And both sides have signal, >> intelligent people doing their best to give the viewpoint of the other side. >> And I believe that has has put us in a position to have a better understanding of when Trump is bluffing or you know are we really going to see a meaningful ceasefire and so on. C >> c can you share one name with us or two a couple names um because our audience is mostly in the west of course like who would you follow right now? Is that possible? Hemed Resa A. Um he gives these daily war updates. So like um Iran war update number 25, focus on Iranian strategic uh narrative. H A mi d r e z a z. Um that's his Twitter handle. Um I saw him being interviewed on CNN, made it to Hidden Forces and pretty reasonable guy. You know, he's just giving and so anything that he restacks or reposts or people he interacts with. Now, look, again, I I'm not saying everything he says is true or um and by the way, if you go down this road, you should be warned that you're going to see an awful lot of anti-semitism. >> Um the ugly side of Twitter, if the algorithm thinks that you're interested in what this guy has to say, it's going to be feeding you an awful lot of ugly stuff. >> Um and it's it's the ugly underbelly of of Twitter as well. And so, um I wanted to put that out there. Fair warning. >> Um >> absolutely, the trigger warning. >> Yeah, >> absolutely. You have to you have you have to um sort through a lot of garbage >> to find a morsel of information that will make you better. >> Absolutely. Um Dick, we always talk oil prices, gas prices as well and you know just trying to get a bit of sense of it all. Um personally I'm a bit surprised that oil isn't higher. Um just what are some of the possible scenarios or what are you looking at that keeps prices somewhat stable if if that's even the right term? Um is it alternative supply routes, pipelines? uh is it uh just because there was so much over supply? I'm just curious what your theory on that topic is. >> Yeah, we tried to explain this um as well because look, we were surprised Kai, I think I'd be honest with you if if you and I were talking before the war and you gave me the fact set hot war in the Middle East straight from closed for a month. Um targeted of the energy facilities um and you gave me an overunder of 150, Brent, I'd have taken the over. I think you probably would have too. >> Yeah. Um and here we are. What explains this? Well, there is an awful lot of oil in storage. China has a billion and a half barrels itself. You know, um there is capacity to produce more. There is demand destruction that will come. Um but I think we're at the early days of this and how the front month oil contracts are behaving. This is again another example of what does price mean in the commodity world. price is for a certain quantity of a certain quality at a certain place at a specific time. Um, and it's never been more important to recognize what price you're looking at on the screen. Right now, the WTI oil price, the oil price is for May delivery in Oklahoma, Cushing. Um, is there really going to be much in the way of disruption to the delivery of oil to Cushing um, in May? Probably not. Um, does that mean that the market doesn't want to signal to producers that it needs to produce more? Sure. And that's what it's doing. And now the long end of the curve is pricing in peace because the market is kind of probably hoping for peace. And so we'll see what happens if things go as we think they will this weekend >> um to the long end of the curve. Um, but we're seeing these regional disparities. You know, I saw a lot of talk on Twitter about the Dubai market. Yeah, of course oil in Dubai in the middle of a war is going to be more expensive than oil in Oklahoma. This is not surprising. Last point I would say is there is of course an overt attempt by the by Bessant and Chris Wright and the other G7 countries to keep the price of oil down. That is just a fact. That is you have to know that as a as an investor. Making money going long oil in a war is the equivalent of trying to make money by shorting banks in a financial crisis. The government doesn't like it. They'll make shorting illegal. They'll manipulate the markets. They will release the SPR. Your counterparty in this trade is the G7 and the big cash cannon it has behind it. Guess what? Scott Besson's not going to be facing a margin call. He's got a Twitter press behind him. So, he's on the other side of your trade. And you need to know that as an investor. You could say it's unfair and you could lament about it on Twitter, but it's utterly predictable. This is not the price of chips, either semiconductor or um or potato. This is the price of oil, gas, the foundational commodities that make the world run. The government's not going to just sit back and watch oil go to $300. It might print there. It's never staying there. >> Um so I digress. >> Yeah. Now, I'm trying to find a way to end on a positive note here, but it's uh I think it's impossible quite honestly right now. Um although I just somebody sent me a text message while we were chatting here. Duneberg is apparently Iran replied to the 15 point peace plan and the markets are turning around a little bit. Um at least they've jumped by a couple percent point whatever that means. So I haven't really had a chance to investigate but I'm trying to find something positive here. >> I don't know. I I'm seeing quotes on my screen that are >> inconsistent with that. But no I here's the possible thing. Let's hope um we're wrong. You know, I've never wanted to be I've never wanted to be more wrong in my life. >> No. No. And it's getting worse by the day. So, Doomberg, very sobering conversation, but a much needed conversation. So, really appreciate your your clear words. Really appreciate also you sharing some intel with us there on uh like who to follow, what to look at because I think that's what people need right now. Um that fog of war, as I mentioned, is so ultra dense. So, these conversations are hugely helpful. Dumbberg, thank you so much for coming on. Um Duneberg.com of course is the website. Anywhere else where they can follow you? And >> that's where that's where everything is. Yeah. Go ahead over to duneberg.com. Uh head over to duneberg.com. Kai, great to talk with you again. And um we'll reconnect in a few months, I'm sure. >> Looking forward to it. Really really looking forward to that. Hopefully on a more positive note, for whatever reason, whenever we chat, it's something it's it's grim. I don't know. We need to find a more positive topic. >> I'm changing the name. I'm changing the name. >> Absolutely. No. Fantastic. Dubber, thank you so much. And everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in. Uh, a very sobering conversation, a muchneeded conversation, very timely. Uh, I hope everybody's staying safe out there. Don't let emotions run your investments for you. I think that's the most important thing. Do your homework. Try to look beside or just just check your check your facts. That's all I can tell you. Uh, don't just listen to our podcast. Get as much information as possible before you do anything. Thank you so much for tuning in and take care.