‘Most Bullish In Time In History’: Gold’s Breakout By Year-End Will Be Huge | Gary Wagner
Summary
Gold Market Analysis: Gary Wagner discusses the current consolidation phase in the gold market, highlighting a symmetrical triangle pattern that suggests a potential breakout above resistance levels, potentially pushing gold prices above $3,725.
Investment Strategy: Wagner emphasizes the importance of investing in gold during uncertain times, noting that geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties are key drivers for gold's bullish trend.
Technical Patterns: The podcast explores the Elliott Wave theory and symmetrical triangle patterns, indicating that gold's prevalent uptrend could continue if it breaks above current resistance levels.
Monetary Policy Impact: The discussion touches on the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which could influence gold prices by maintaining uncertainty and driving investors towards safe-haven assets.
Silver Market Insights: Silver is noted for its recent catch-up rally alongside gold, though it is not considered as strong a safe-haven asset as gold.
Alternative Investments: Wagner asserts that there are limited alternatives to gold as a safe-haven investment, given the dollar's recent depreciation and ongoing market uncertainties.
Future Outlook: The potential for a gold breakout is projected within the next 30 days, with a longer-term target of reaching $3,800 by early 2026, contingent on maintaining current market conditions.
Transcript
I'm very pleased to welcome back the show Gary Wgner, editor of the goldforcast.com. It's been a few months since Gary's been on the show and we'll get his outlook now on the price of gold, the price of silver, and Fed monetary policy. Welcome back to the show, Gary. I had you on last June, so it's been quite some time. We're way overdue for catchup. Welcome back. Thanks for having me. It has been a while, and we've we've sat through a consolidation period, so it wasn't the worst time for me not to be on. Uh but yeah, glad to be here. Uh let's talk about gold first. Let's start straight with the gold chart. This is the consolidation period that you're talking about, this basing pattern uh that investors are seeing. I'm just going to point a few observations of my own and I'll let you uh give your analysis. So um first of all, the first thing that I've noticed is that gold's hit new all-time highs this year. That goes without saying, but we haven't had a major sell-off from the the $3,300 an ounce level. Meaning if the gold market wanted to take profits and kept selling, they would have done so already. It's already been more than 3 and 1/2 months, 4 months almost since we've reached this level in April. Now, the other observation I've made is that the last time this has happened or when this kind of a basing pattern has happened in the past, historically, uh it's been the uh precursor to another breakout. uh the exception being 2022 when we had this basing pattern and then it broke down but eventually it broke back up. Uh in 2011 the same thing happened. Well 2011 see now what happened was it went up and it immediately went back down. So we didn't have this multi multi-monthl long consolidation pattern but if you just take a look at the chart or at least from what I've observed every time that it has happened um for for a few notable exceptions uh we saw a bull rally immediately after. Now, the question is whether or not uh it's too late to get back in on this rally if, let's say, you miss this rally. Um I'll let you start with that. Well, first of all, I think not. And when we look at one of the charts that that I've put up, if I if I may. Yeah, please. Okay. Um what you'll see is we've got the same gold chart, but I'm looking at it a little bit different. Uh you should have it up on screen. So, we've had a series of very, very long rallies, very, very shallow corrections um in terms of what we call our Elliot wave count. And let me go ahead and uh just put that in. We've had our wave 1 2 3 4 and five. And that takes us to August 22nd when we hit the all-time record high and we had an exaggerated intraday high. But from there, in essence, we develop what I'm labeling as a symmetrical triangle. In other words, even though we've had a couple of equal tops up here, if you draw your trend line on this triangle from the intraday high that came out on the 22nd of April, you definitely can make a case for a descending upper level resistance and an ascending lower level support. And what that means is that we've entered a major correction, but rather than it being a standard deep correction, what we would call an A B C correction and then move back to a motive phase because my belief right now is obviously we're witnessing one of the most bullish times in history and we've had a multi-month consolidation after hitting this high here. And so I believe that we are at a point right now where we could in fact see a breakout above this upper level resistance line and that would take it substantially higher in terms of where I think it could go. All I've done is converted that regular chart into a line chart. But I believe that we could see gold go as high or higher than 3725 if in fact we get a break which is called a basic thrust. If we get gold to break above this particular resistance that's there which I've detailed here. So whereas we're witnessing consolidation, it's not really a standard consolidation. We've had a series of lower highs, a series of higher lows, and I believe that we could see gold break out from its current area because you can see that once it hit the bottom of the channel, it's been moving back up over the last week and now we're actually very, very close to 3472, which is my first target. Once that breakout happens, I believe energy will be released uh any kind of a pattern that is a compression pattern. When it breaks through resistance, it does so with a fever. And if I'm correct, we will see this market move much higher. As I said, in terms of where I believe we could see it go, above 3700 is what I'm looking at right here. Does that uh well first of all can you explain the logic behind um this chart that you've created? Uh my question is why have you drawn the arrow the extension to the upside rather than the downside? Uh clearly you've assigned an upside move to be a higher probability than a downside move from here. Why? Okay, very good assumption. You're 100% correct in that when you have a symmetrical triangle that reaches the apex. It doesn't necessitate that it breaks above the resistance line or below the support line. The reason I believe that the probability of a break above this resistance line is pretty simple. It's based on the fact that we've had a series of equal tops. We every time we came back down, it would go back up and hit this channel. But if we look at the overall trend, the prevalent trend, we have to acknowledge that that trend has been an uptrend. And that's what you know if we look at the fact that gold in October of 2023 was at 2000 and it's risen tremendously to above 3500. Excuse me. This one I had wrong. It went from 2000 to 3500. The prevalent trend direction has been up. And that is why I believe that all things being equal, in other words, if the fundamentals that were at play are still in play in the market, the likelihood is that after this consolidation that gold will return to its prevalent trend direction, the direction it's been moving towards all things being equal. And we have to acknowledge the trend has been dramatically higher. We have to acknowledge things changed in April on the 17th where we started to get rather than a new high uh correction, new high correction, we got a series of almost a flat top, but it is still a descending um resistance line and ascending support line. And I believe the breakout to the upside is based on the fact that all things being equal, the trend after the consolidation is over will return to its prevalent trend direction preceding it. And that's the reason I believe that the probability favors a breakout to the upside. Now, what would change that? If the fundamentals that were in play that took gold dramatically higher are no longer in play, then of course we would look for the possibility of it breaking to the downside. It's as simple as that. You've heard me talk a lot recently about rising gold prices and how important it is to be building your savings in hard assets like gold and silver. But what if I told you that you could do a lot more than just holding gold? What if you could also earn income from it, pay it in gold? That's exactly what today's sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing. They're revolutionizing how people invest in gold and silver. Instead of paying to store your metal or watching it sit idle, now you can get paid to own it. Right now in the marketplace, you can earn up to 4% interest on gold paid in gold. That means your holdings grow in actual ounces, not dollars, on top of any price appreciation. Interest is paid monthly in physical gold, which you can redeem and take delivery of. Thousands of investors are already earning real interest in physical gold and silver through monetary medals every month. It's time you did as well. Go to monetary-medals.com/lin link down below or scan the QR code here to learn more and get started. What are these fundamentals? Good segue to the next macro portion. What are these fundamentals that are supportive of gold right now? Okay. Well, of course, and they're they're not these are the minor ones. They're not minor in the eyes of if you're in Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, but the geopolitical conflicts that are occurring right now. The major obstacle which has um moved gold higher. In other words, created the uncertainty has been our administration. and that we're unsure as to how he'll react for certain issues, whether he'll change a policy, whether he'll revamp it, whether he'll do away with it. It is the uncertainty of the current administration in terms of policy that makes me believe that gold will continue to move higher because that's what's moved gold higher over this last year. When you said that gold has entered one of the most bullish times in history, you're right. But does that not concern you as somebody who's studying the charts and perhaps an investor of gold, do you not look at this breakout ever since the middle of 2024 as being somewhat alarming in its pace of growth? Well, first of all, when we look at this chart, let me try to it's not parabolic as it was if you look back on April 7th and this move up here, the correction and this move. This is a straight parabolic move. We've had it consolidate. Does it worry me that it continues to make new highs? I would have to say it it amazes me. It astounds me, but I'm not troubled with it in terms of it matching the uncertainty factor that traditionally moves gold higher. People flock to a safe haven asset for exactly the reason of the definition of safe haven. It's a it's a level of safety when there's uncertainty. And we certainly have a lot of uncertainty right now in terms of what's going to happen with the Fed. the recent addition in which he apparently fired uh Governor Lisa Cook, but she's going to fight it. Uh does he have the right to? If he does, was it really with cause? And now they're both saying, "Well, we'll let the courts decide." that certainly ratchets up ratchets up the uncertainty factor because the it's not knowing the outcome that will move traders to a safe haven asset. Also today we're speaking today on the 27th of August. Wednesday uh Trump announced a 50% tariff on India, one of the largest ever on any nation um after India bought um Russian oil. that this was a story. I'll just pull it up. And before we pull up the story, I I I wonder what um gold's reaction to uh trade policy still is now in the middle of August 2025. Does gold still react to Trump's uncertainty surrounding tariffs? Recently, gold's been consolidating, and the consolidation is the unknowing factor, the uncertainty. But we haven't had a high that has broken the high that came in in April. I think that the question is how will these tariffs once they are fully implemented affect inflation? So far they've been a little bit tamer than we thought they would uh in terms of the inflation numbers but the tariffs haven't been fully implemented. He's still negotiating with some countries as you said they just changed something with India. So I think that we could see gold move higher for the reasons of the fact that we don't know what the outcome is going to be in terms of how much inflation is generated from these tariffs. Yeah, this is the story that I was talking about here. Pulling this up. Trump imposes 50% tariff on India as punishment for buying Russian oil. uh making good in the threat to punish one of the world's largest economies over its purchases of discounted Russian oil. Uh the tariffs which came just into effect after midnight on Wednesday in Washington risk inflicting significant damage on the Indian economy and further disrupting global supply chains. Interestingly, global markets, well, at least US markets have not reacted negatively to today's news. Um I'm guessing not much retaliation or reprisal against the US economy is expected. US stock markets remain stable. Gold remains stable and um and the dollar is somewhat uh down today. But I'll let you um I'll let you talk about uh what the Fed is going to do next, Gary, and whether or not Fed monetary policy post September is going to affect gold. Keep in mind that the Fed has kept rates unchanged. uh sorry kept keep in mind that the Fed has kept rates unchanged uh throughout the course of the summer which is maybe why gold has been consolidating. Maybe gold's waiting for the next move. Well, I think that what we're going to witness is when Powell spoke during the Jackson Hole Sympos symposium very recently, he opened the door to a decent probability of a rate cut. The whole idea is that the Fed has wanted to normalize interest rates since raising them back in uh 2020 2122 when we had a severe economic meltdown globally uh due to the pandemic. Once that kind of works itself out, the key right now is no one knows how much inflation these tariffs will yield and will inflation really jump up because many economists felt that it would have already and it hasn't. Uh other economists said, "Well, we haven't really seen the full blunt force of these tariffs because they haven't been fully etched in stone." Meaning there's still certain countries are still negotiating. Um I think that there is the possibility of gold moving higher all things being equal as long as the uncertainty factor as to what's going to be the next move of whether it's the administration I think the Fed has a clearer path. I think that they have wanted to go to a normalized interest rate which means to bring it down from the levels that it was and at the same time they have to follow their dual mandate which is a maximum employment and b inflation remaining at around a 2% target and they've we've seen variations of that but for the most part Employment's been solid and inflation has maintained itself and has been ticking down up until recently. And it is for that reason um that we have a wait and see attitude. And that's what I think it really put gold in a consolidation rather than the continuation of the strong upside moves we witnessed prior uh to gold hitting that all-time record intraday high back on the 21st of April. Okay, here's what Powell said last week at the Jackson Hole Symposium regarding his expectations on inflation uh among other uh economic uh uncertainties. Take a listen where we act together. Okay. Cannot take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Come what may, we will not allow a one-time increase in the price level to become an ongoing inflation problem. So, putting the pieces together, what are the implications for monetary policy? In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation when our goals are intentioned like this, our framework calls for us to balance both sides of our dual mandate. Our policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than it was a year ago. And the stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Do you think persistent inflation is a risk at this point, Gary? I think it could be. I don't think um there's certainty in whether or not that will happen, but it certainly could. I think there's going to be an upper level limit once there's full knowledge of how steep the tariffs are and how deeply that changes pricing structure because initially uh companies that are faced with higher production costs tend to not move all of those costs onto the cost for the consumer as long as they can until they can't. And so for that reason, I think that inflation, as long as it remains within certain parameters and doesn't move much off of that 2% target as they move it lower, I think it's not going to be it being persistent where it doesn't stop there. I I I don't see that happening. What do you think he uh is going to do about the threat of higher unemployment? Let's say higher unemployment is a risk and at the same time higher inflation is a risk. Does that warrant a rate cut by the fall? Well, Powell said that that he believes that there's some uncertainty as to what the tariffs will do, but it it is nothing that their ability to hedge that by cutting rates and boosting the economy back up won't have an impact on. So for that reason I think that we will get a interest rate cut of a quarter% in September. Will we get another cut this year? That is really uncertain. I think that I believe we'll absolutely have one in September. And the question is whether or not there'll be two. But remember, he's trying to bring it down to a certain level that would require additional rate cuts, not just one 25 basis point rate cut in September. Gary, what other risks do you see for the economy that u may move gold? I'm making the statement on the assumption that risk to the downside for the economy are to the positive or the upside for gold. Maybe that assumption is wrong, but I'll let you comment on that. Well, I think that once we get once we get the rate cut that many economists are anticipating in September, that will be a relief because then it will signal that the Fed is back on the path to interest rate normalization, meaning they'll have a series of rate cuts this year as well as next year and bring it to an acceptable level as long as inflation doesn't spiral. And there is a concern about stagflation though. Also, Gary, let's take a look at silver. Uh silver has moved uh a lot more than gold in the summer. And I say that because ever since the beginning of June, uh silver has played catchup and then some. Now, is this just a case of latent uh catching up? uh silver finally moving uh alongside like gold or is there a silver specific story we need to be aware of? What we see this is a very long-term monthly chart and the area that we couldn't take out was $33 and above and obviously that got taken out at the end of last year, the beginning of this year. And now if we look back at where current pricing is at about 38, we need to really go back to 2012 to see the last time silver had a value of $42. And for $38, we need to go back to um the 2000 March of 2013. So silver has not been performing in any way in the same that gold has, but it's never been considered to be the kind of a safe haven play as much as gold has. What are you more bullish on right now, Gary? Gold. Okay. Um, in terms of uh uh the economic outlook being uncertain, is there another alternative to gold that investors can turn to uh for a safety play? In other words, does gold have any competitors in this time of uncertainty? Well, it certainly hasn't been the dollar. If we look at a dollar chart, we can see that the dollar has been in a virtual freef fall since January of this year when the index was at 109. We recently hit some lows um to to 96. So it's come down what uh 10 12% in terms of it being devalued against the basket of currencies that the index is paired against the euro being weighted the the heaviest but there's I believe seven or eight currencies that the index composes. Your bet isn't on the dollar. And so and this dollar weakness has also been part and parcel to what's moved gold substantially higher. I don't see there being an alternative to uh gold as a safe haven play for safety in as much as you could look at silver, you could look at platinum or even palladium, but I think that that's probably where we got the push in silver uh as we saw play catch-up after gold hit really a series of tops where we didn't see it making all-time intraday day highs, but rather a series of lower highs and a series of higher lows. And that was that that's why I've labeled this correction as a symmetrical triangle, compression triangle uh correction. Okay. Um going back to uh this chart here, Gary, does your ch chart give us a timeline in terms of when this breakout from this um symmetrical triangle could happen? in terms of um breaking above it. I think that that will hap if it happens, it's going to happen in the next 30 days, but realize we're very very close to to that target right now. I'll convert it back into a candlestick. You know, we're very very close to the top of this channel right now as it is. I believe a breakout will move it substantially higher. The one thing that the techniques I use which is um trend analysis, pattern identification, the one thing it does not account for effectively is the element of time um to break above this upper level line. I think that will happen actually fairly if it does occur. I believe it could occur over the next uh two to three weeks. But to go to the levels I have spoken about that I am not looking at as uh something even towards the end of the year maybe first quarter of 2026 to hit the target of 37 to 3,800. Right now let's suppose gold breaks to the downside. So uh macro forces have pushed gold now to the downside. What is the floor or uh or uh bearish level that it would need to break uh beyond which you would say to yourself this is definitely a new bare market and we should be worried a hard break below this lower level what I labeled as a support line which is currently at around call it 3350. If that happens, you're looking at your next technical level as low as 3,200 and below that, which I don't believe it would get to that easily. Uh, but that would be at around 31 to 3,00 to 3,100. Okay, great, Gary. Great update. Thank you very much for your analysis. So, where can we follow you in the meantime before your next appearance? Uh certainly the goldfor.com on YouTube as well as our URL the goldfor.com there's a lot available uh before you decide if you want to be a premium member there's a lot of content there especially on our YouTube channel a couple thousand um daily videos that I've done over the last decade. Good. Thank you very much Gary. We'll put uh the links to Gary's work down below. Uh he's got a fantastic website so I do encourage everyone to check it out. See you next time Gary. Thank you. Thank you. And thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe. [Applause]
‘Most Bullish In Time In History’: Gold’s Breakout By Year-End Will Be Huge | Gary Wagner
Summary
Transcript
I'm very pleased to welcome back the show Gary Wgner, editor of the goldforcast.com. It's been a few months since Gary's been on the show and we'll get his outlook now on the price of gold, the price of silver, and Fed monetary policy. Welcome back to the show, Gary. I had you on last June, so it's been quite some time. We're way overdue for catchup. Welcome back. Thanks for having me. It has been a while, and we've we've sat through a consolidation period, so it wasn't the worst time for me not to be on. Uh but yeah, glad to be here. Uh let's talk about gold first. Let's start straight with the gold chart. This is the consolidation period that you're talking about, this basing pattern uh that investors are seeing. I'm just going to point a few observations of my own and I'll let you uh give your analysis. So um first of all, the first thing that I've noticed is that gold's hit new all-time highs this year. That goes without saying, but we haven't had a major sell-off from the the $3,300 an ounce level. Meaning if the gold market wanted to take profits and kept selling, they would have done so already. It's already been more than 3 and 1/2 months, 4 months almost since we've reached this level in April. Now, the other observation I've made is that the last time this has happened or when this kind of a basing pattern has happened in the past, historically, uh it's been the uh precursor to another breakout. uh the exception being 2022 when we had this basing pattern and then it broke down but eventually it broke back up. Uh in 2011 the same thing happened. Well 2011 see now what happened was it went up and it immediately went back down. So we didn't have this multi multi-monthl long consolidation pattern but if you just take a look at the chart or at least from what I've observed every time that it has happened um for for a few notable exceptions uh we saw a bull rally immediately after. Now, the question is whether or not uh it's too late to get back in on this rally if, let's say, you miss this rally. Um I'll let you start with that. Well, first of all, I think not. And when we look at one of the charts that that I've put up, if I if I may. Yeah, please. Okay. Um what you'll see is we've got the same gold chart, but I'm looking at it a little bit different. Uh you should have it up on screen. So, we've had a series of very, very long rallies, very, very shallow corrections um in terms of what we call our Elliot wave count. And let me go ahead and uh just put that in. We've had our wave 1 2 3 4 and five. And that takes us to August 22nd when we hit the all-time record high and we had an exaggerated intraday high. But from there, in essence, we develop what I'm labeling as a symmetrical triangle. In other words, even though we've had a couple of equal tops up here, if you draw your trend line on this triangle from the intraday high that came out on the 22nd of April, you definitely can make a case for a descending upper level resistance and an ascending lower level support. And what that means is that we've entered a major correction, but rather than it being a standard deep correction, what we would call an A B C correction and then move back to a motive phase because my belief right now is obviously we're witnessing one of the most bullish times in history and we've had a multi-month consolidation after hitting this high here. And so I believe that we are at a point right now where we could in fact see a breakout above this upper level resistance line and that would take it substantially higher in terms of where I think it could go. All I've done is converted that regular chart into a line chart. But I believe that we could see gold go as high or higher than 3725 if in fact we get a break which is called a basic thrust. If we get gold to break above this particular resistance that's there which I've detailed here. So whereas we're witnessing consolidation, it's not really a standard consolidation. We've had a series of lower highs, a series of higher lows, and I believe that we could see gold break out from its current area because you can see that once it hit the bottom of the channel, it's been moving back up over the last week and now we're actually very, very close to 3472, which is my first target. Once that breakout happens, I believe energy will be released uh any kind of a pattern that is a compression pattern. When it breaks through resistance, it does so with a fever. And if I'm correct, we will see this market move much higher. As I said, in terms of where I believe we could see it go, above 3700 is what I'm looking at right here. Does that uh well first of all can you explain the logic behind um this chart that you've created? Uh my question is why have you drawn the arrow the extension to the upside rather than the downside? Uh clearly you've assigned an upside move to be a higher probability than a downside move from here. Why? Okay, very good assumption. You're 100% correct in that when you have a symmetrical triangle that reaches the apex. It doesn't necessitate that it breaks above the resistance line or below the support line. The reason I believe that the probability of a break above this resistance line is pretty simple. It's based on the fact that we've had a series of equal tops. We every time we came back down, it would go back up and hit this channel. But if we look at the overall trend, the prevalent trend, we have to acknowledge that that trend has been an uptrend. And that's what you know if we look at the fact that gold in October of 2023 was at 2000 and it's risen tremendously to above 3500. Excuse me. This one I had wrong. It went from 2000 to 3500. The prevalent trend direction has been up. And that is why I believe that all things being equal, in other words, if the fundamentals that were at play are still in play in the market, the likelihood is that after this consolidation that gold will return to its prevalent trend direction, the direction it's been moving towards all things being equal. And we have to acknowledge the trend has been dramatically higher. We have to acknowledge things changed in April on the 17th where we started to get rather than a new high uh correction, new high correction, we got a series of almost a flat top, but it is still a descending um resistance line and ascending support line. And I believe the breakout to the upside is based on the fact that all things being equal, the trend after the consolidation is over will return to its prevalent trend direction preceding it. And that's the reason I believe that the probability favors a breakout to the upside. Now, what would change that? If the fundamentals that were in play that took gold dramatically higher are no longer in play, then of course we would look for the possibility of it breaking to the downside. It's as simple as that. You've heard me talk a lot recently about rising gold prices and how important it is to be building your savings in hard assets like gold and silver. But what if I told you that you could do a lot more than just holding gold? What if you could also earn income from it, pay it in gold? That's exactly what today's sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing. They're revolutionizing how people invest in gold and silver. Instead of paying to store your metal or watching it sit idle, now you can get paid to own it. Right now in the marketplace, you can earn up to 4% interest on gold paid in gold. That means your holdings grow in actual ounces, not dollars, on top of any price appreciation. Interest is paid monthly in physical gold, which you can redeem and take delivery of. Thousands of investors are already earning real interest in physical gold and silver through monetary medals every month. It's time you did as well. Go to monetary-medals.com/lin link down below or scan the QR code here to learn more and get started. What are these fundamentals? Good segue to the next macro portion. What are these fundamentals that are supportive of gold right now? Okay. Well, of course, and they're they're not these are the minor ones. They're not minor in the eyes of if you're in Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, but the geopolitical conflicts that are occurring right now. The major obstacle which has um moved gold higher. In other words, created the uncertainty has been our administration. and that we're unsure as to how he'll react for certain issues, whether he'll change a policy, whether he'll revamp it, whether he'll do away with it. It is the uncertainty of the current administration in terms of policy that makes me believe that gold will continue to move higher because that's what's moved gold higher over this last year. When you said that gold has entered one of the most bullish times in history, you're right. But does that not concern you as somebody who's studying the charts and perhaps an investor of gold, do you not look at this breakout ever since the middle of 2024 as being somewhat alarming in its pace of growth? Well, first of all, when we look at this chart, let me try to it's not parabolic as it was if you look back on April 7th and this move up here, the correction and this move. This is a straight parabolic move. We've had it consolidate. Does it worry me that it continues to make new highs? I would have to say it it amazes me. It astounds me, but I'm not troubled with it in terms of it matching the uncertainty factor that traditionally moves gold higher. People flock to a safe haven asset for exactly the reason of the definition of safe haven. It's a it's a level of safety when there's uncertainty. And we certainly have a lot of uncertainty right now in terms of what's going to happen with the Fed. the recent addition in which he apparently fired uh Governor Lisa Cook, but she's going to fight it. Uh does he have the right to? If he does, was it really with cause? And now they're both saying, "Well, we'll let the courts decide." that certainly ratchets up ratchets up the uncertainty factor because the it's not knowing the outcome that will move traders to a safe haven asset. Also today we're speaking today on the 27th of August. Wednesday uh Trump announced a 50% tariff on India, one of the largest ever on any nation um after India bought um Russian oil. that this was a story. I'll just pull it up. And before we pull up the story, I I I wonder what um gold's reaction to uh trade policy still is now in the middle of August 2025. Does gold still react to Trump's uncertainty surrounding tariffs? Recently, gold's been consolidating, and the consolidation is the unknowing factor, the uncertainty. But we haven't had a high that has broken the high that came in in April. I think that the question is how will these tariffs once they are fully implemented affect inflation? So far they've been a little bit tamer than we thought they would uh in terms of the inflation numbers but the tariffs haven't been fully implemented. He's still negotiating with some countries as you said they just changed something with India. So I think that we could see gold move higher for the reasons of the fact that we don't know what the outcome is going to be in terms of how much inflation is generated from these tariffs. Yeah, this is the story that I was talking about here. Pulling this up. Trump imposes 50% tariff on India as punishment for buying Russian oil. uh making good in the threat to punish one of the world's largest economies over its purchases of discounted Russian oil. Uh the tariffs which came just into effect after midnight on Wednesday in Washington risk inflicting significant damage on the Indian economy and further disrupting global supply chains. Interestingly, global markets, well, at least US markets have not reacted negatively to today's news. Um I'm guessing not much retaliation or reprisal against the US economy is expected. US stock markets remain stable. Gold remains stable and um and the dollar is somewhat uh down today. But I'll let you um I'll let you talk about uh what the Fed is going to do next, Gary, and whether or not Fed monetary policy post September is going to affect gold. Keep in mind that the Fed has kept rates unchanged. uh sorry kept keep in mind that the Fed has kept rates unchanged uh throughout the course of the summer which is maybe why gold has been consolidating. Maybe gold's waiting for the next move. Well, I think that what we're going to witness is when Powell spoke during the Jackson Hole Sympos symposium very recently, he opened the door to a decent probability of a rate cut. The whole idea is that the Fed has wanted to normalize interest rates since raising them back in uh 2020 2122 when we had a severe economic meltdown globally uh due to the pandemic. Once that kind of works itself out, the key right now is no one knows how much inflation these tariffs will yield and will inflation really jump up because many economists felt that it would have already and it hasn't. Uh other economists said, "Well, we haven't really seen the full blunt force of these tariffs because they haven't been fully etched in stone." Meaning there's still certain countries are still negotiating. Um I think that there is the possibility of gold moving higher all things being equal as long as the uncertainty factor as to what's going to be the next move of whether it's the administration I think the Fed has a clearer path. I think that they have wanted to go to a normalized interest rate which means to bring it down from the levels that it was and at the same time they have to follow their dual mandate which is a maximum employment and b inflation remaining at around a 2% target and they've we've seen variations of that but for the most part Employment's been solid and inflation has maintained itself and has been ticking down up until recently. And it is for that reason um that we have a wait and see attitude. And that's what I think it really put gold in a consolidation rather than the continuation of the strong upside moves we witnessed prior uh to gold hitting that all-time record intraday high back on the 21st of April. Okay, here's what Powell said last week at the Jackson Hole Symposium regarding his expectations on inflation uh among other uh economic uh uncertainties. Take a listen where we act together. Okay. Cannot take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Come what may, we will not allow a one-time increase in the price level to become an ongoing inflation problem. So, putting the pieces together, what are the implications for monetary policy? In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation when our goals are intentioned like this, our framework calls for us to balance both sides of our dual mandate. Our policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than it was a year ago. And the stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Do you think persistent inflation is a risk at this point, Gary? I think it could be. I don't think um there's certainty in whether or not that will happen, but it certainly could. I think there's going to be an upper level limit once there's full knowledge of how steep the tariffs are and how deeply that changes pricing structure because initially uh companies that are faced with higher production costs tend to not move all of those costs onto the cost for the consumer as long as they can until they can't. And so for that reason, I think that inflation, as long as it remains within certain parameters and doesn't move much off of that 2% target as they move it lower, I think it's not going to be it being persistent where it doesn't stop there. I I I don't see that happening. What do you think he uh is going to do about the threat of higher unemployment? Let's say higher unemployment is a risk and at the same time higher inflation is a risk. Does that warrant a rate cut by the fall? Well, Powell said that that he believes that there's some uncertainty as to what the tariffs will do, but it it is nothing that their ability to hedge that by cutting rates and boosting the economy back up won't have an impact on. So for that reason I think that we will get a interest rate cut of a quarter% in September. Will we get another cut this year? That is really uncertain. I think that I believe we'll absolutely have one in September. And the question is whether or not there'll be two. But remember, he's trying to bring it down to a certain level that would require additional rate cuts, not just one 25 basis point rate cut in September. Gary, what other risks do you see for the economy that u may move gold? I'm making the statement on the assumption that risk to the downside for the economy are to the positive or the upside for gold. Maybe that assumption is wrong, but I'll let you comment on that. Well, I think that once we get once we get the rate cut that many economists are anticipating in September, that will be a relief because then it will signal that the Fed is back on the path to interest rate normalization, meaning they'll have a series of rate cuts this year as well as next year and bring it to an acceptable level as long as inflation doesn't spiral. And there is a concern about stagflation though. Also, Gary, let's take a look at silver. Uh silver has moved uh a lot more than gold in the summer. And I say that because ever since the beginning of June, uh silver has played catchup and then some. Now, is this just a case of latent uh catching up? uh silver finally moving uh alongside like gold or is there a silver specific story we need to be aware of? What we see this is a very long-term monthly chart and the area that we couldn't take out was $33 and above and obviously that got taken out at the end of last year, the beginning of this year. And now if we look back at where current pricing is at about 38, we need to really go back to 2012 to see the last time silver had a value of $42. And for $38, we need to go back to um the 2000 March of 2013. So silver has not been performing in any way in the same that gold has, but it's never been considered to be the kind of a safe haven play as much as gold has. What are you more bullish on right now, Gary? Gold. Okay. Um, in terms of uh uh the economic outlook being uncertain, is there another alternative to gold that investors can turn to uh for a safety play? In other words, does gold have any competitors in this time of uncertainty? Well, it certainly hasn't been the dollar. If we look at a dollar chart, we can see that the dollar has been in a virtual freef fall since January of this year when the index was at 109. We recently hit some lows um to to 96. So it's come down what uh 10 12% in terms of it being devalued against the basket of currencies that the index is paired against the euro being weighted the the heaviest but there's I believe seven or eight currencies that the index composes. Your bet isn't on the dollar. And so and this dollar weakness has also been part and parcel to what's moved gold substantially higher. I don't see there being an alternative to uh gold as a safe haven play for safety in as much as you could look at silver, you could look at platinum or even palladium, but I think that that's probably where we got the push in silver uh as we saw play catch-up after gold hit really a series of tops where we didn't see it making all-time intraday day highs, but rather a series of lower highs and a series of higher lows. And that was that that's why I've labeled this correction as a symmetrical triangle, compression triangle uh correction. Okay. Um going back to uh this chart here, Gary, does your ch chart give us a timeline in terms of when this breakout from this um symmetrical triangle could happen? in terms of um breaking above it. I think that that will hap if it happens, it's going to happen in the next 30 days, but realize we're very very close to to that target right now. I'll convert it back into a candlestick. You know, we're very very close to the top of this channel right now as it is. I believe a breakout will move it substantially higher. The one thing that the techniques I use which is um trend analysis, pattern identification, the one thing it does not account for effectively is the element of time um to break above this upper level line. I think that will happen actually fairly if it does occur. I believe it could occur over the next uh two to three weeks. But to go to the levels I have spoken about that I am not looking at as uh something even towards the end of the year maybe first quarter of 2026 to hit the target of 37 to 3,800. Right now let's suppose gold breaks to the downside. So uh macro forces have pushed gold now to the downside. What is the floor or uh or uh bearish level that it would need to break uh beyond which you would say to yourself this is definitely a new bare market and we should be worried a hard break below this lower level what I labeled as a support line which is currently at around call it 3350. If that happens, you're looking at your next technical level as low as 3,200 and below that, which I don't believe it would get to that easily. Uh, but that would be at around 31 to 3,00 to 3,100. Okay, great, Gary. Great update. Thank you very much for your analysis. So, where can we follow you in the meantime before your next appearance? Uh certainly the goldfor.com on YouTube as well as our URL the goldfor.com there's a lot available uh before you decide if you want to be a premium member there's a lot of content there especially on our YouTube channel a couple thousand um daily videos that I've done over the last decade. Good. Thank you very much Gary. We'll put uh the links to Gary's work down below. Uh he's got a fantastic website so I do encourage everyone to check it out. See you next time Gary. Thank you. Thank you. And thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe. [Applause]