On episode 442 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: huge losses in the Nasdaq 100, 2026 outlooks, …
Transcript
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Explore their award-winning lineup at neosfunds.com. That's neosfunds.com to learn more. This podcast is also brought to you by Exhibit A. All right, financial adviserss, listen up. Are you still using outdated, misbranded charts in your client decks? You know the ones your logos in the corner where the colors scream someone else's firm. Piecing together a Frankenstein deck from the blog screenshots and old PDFs isn't going to cut it in 2026. Your content needs to look uniform and professional. That's why we built exhibit A because we had old outdated charts too until Chart Kid Matt came along. Right. >> You're exactly right, Ben. Chart Kidm Matt has already done the analyst work for you. Just drop in your logo, your headsh shot, brand colors, and kaboom. You get instant access to over 140 of the industry's best charts. All updated daily with expert key talking points. Build your decks, quarterly reports, and marketing material. All branded, clean, compliancefriendly, and client ready. Plus, we drop a brand new chart of the week every Friday, so you've always got fresh, timely charts to share. It's like having a full research team behind you for 95% less of the cost. Book a demo with chartmat right now by scanning the QR code on the screen. And for advisers that are listening, head to exhibit aforadvice.com to learn more. >> Hey, listen. Every week I'm giving Matt ideas. Hey Matt, how about this chart for chart of the week? How about this one? And we're building them together. So that's like up to-date charts, too. You're not going to get that anywhere else. >> Matt GBT. >> That's right. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Let's get out of the way quickly here. Every week, people ask, "Ben, what are you wearing?" It's like I feel like I'm on the red carpet. This is a marine layer sweatshirt again. Okay, I'm just going to put it out there so I don't have to answer questions. All right, we spoke about Chardkid Matt a second ago. Uh he had a great chart on his blog. I told him, so he has got it's chartkidmat.com. I said, "Hey man, you need to do a chart of the day." I don't want to like give you too much homework. >> Chart of the day. >> Chart of the day. We we give him a ton of homework. I said, "All the charts that we ask you to do, just put it on your blog. You can do a chart of the day." He said that maybe that's too much. But so he's got this chart that shows us sector drivers in 20 in the 2020s. Okay. Sector contributions for the S&P 500. And no surprise, tech is a big huge weight. And of course, Comm is what? Meta, >> Google. >> What else? Google. Okay, so that's basically tech. So if you put those two together, tech and com services account for nearly 80% of the total return this decade in the 2020s. Not hugely surprising, but still a gigantic number. >> Yeah, massive. >> Yeah, >> massive. Massive. Um, all right. This was uh >> So wait, my sorry, my point here is this is the Bessbinder study, though. the the history of the stock market is a handful of winners drive the majority of the gains and that's what we're seeing in the 2020s. >> Uh for exhibit A's chart of the week, Matt compared the tech bubble peaking. Now, I took a little bit of umbrage with this chart. I said, "Hey, I don't get it. Why are you using June 2010 as the start date?" And his point was um if the market were to peak today, comparing that with the previous run-up to the tech bubble peak, that's where he got June 10th from. Um but whatever the the starting point aside, the point remains, >> obviously this looks nothing nothing like the runup to the peak from 98 to 2000 when the NASDAQ like at that point the NASDAQ we should probably have these numbers handy, but whatever. From 95 to 98, the NASDAQ 100 or the NASDAQ composite was up. How much was it up? 300% whatever it was. And then the final like year and a half to the runup, it doubled again. >> Yeah, it was like 500% that that whole five years. But here's the thing, those returns were more compressed. You could say these returns are way more spread out, but the magnit it's a it's just not as compressed. The magnitude is still pretty great when you look at it over a longer period of time. >> Yes. >> Um, so I had Matt create this chart with me. I gave him the data. He created the chart. That's kind of how it works here. And I had never looked at this before. I know the S&P 500 returns pretty good. Like I can I can that they're up here. The NASDAQ 100 I don't know as well. So I looked at all the NASDAQ 100 annual check. >> They're not they're not all up there. >> Yeah, they're pretty much there. >> I'm not I'm not going to quiz you right now, but come on. >> Give me a year in the last 20 years. All right. Uh that's my party favorite trick. So I looked at the NASDAQ 100 returns to show how random they are going back to 1995. And we ran these numbers and Matt and I looked at this and go, "Huh, this is really weird." So, first of all, the thing that stands out is, well, there's way more gains and losses out of the last 31 years, and this includes the dot bubble, obviously, popping. Uh, 26 out of the 31 are positive, including this year. But then we looked at the the negative returns and we go, "Holy cow, this is crazy." Literally, there's five down years since 1995. >> Every single down year is 30% or worse. >> Is that not ins like I I had no idea that was the case. >> This is a face blower and a melter as well, all both at the same time. Look how bad the doc bubble bust was. Down 36%, down 33%, down 37%. Imagine losing more than a third of the value every year for three years. >> Back to back to back. Yeah, that that's that's insane. I I guess I >> I got to be honest, I I would have stayed away for stocks for a decade at least. >> It is kind of crazy that tech people kept so optimistic. Obviously, there was a 10-year period. >> Who says they stayed optimistic? >> Well, I mean, they kept they they got back in somehow, but yes. So, 2022 was the last one. before that was 2008. So every single down year has been a loss of 30% or worse in the last 30 years which is just absolutely insane when you think about it. >> That is insane. And I >> So the S&P in this same time the S&P has had one down 30% year or more. And that was 2008. >> Good golly, Miss Molly. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this won't hold forever. Not every time the NASDAQ 100 falls will it will it fall by 30% or more. But this is a hell of a chart why I didn't know this. >> So the since 1995, the NASDAQ 100 has compounded at 15% per year. The S&P is 11%. Um, and the the this is inclusive obviously of two I guess if you call this a bubble, it's two bubbles and then one huge bursting which I think the NASDAQ fell 83% peaked the trough after the dot bubble. And so inclusive of an 80% crash, you still got 15% per year annually, which is just insane. Plus five different face rippers of of calendar returns and three back to back to back. Uh, >> wow. Anyway, just I I I just this is one of those, huh? I did not know that. >> All right. I don't know if 2025 was a particularly strange year. Um, but for me personally, >> every year in the 2020s has been strange. >> That's true. >> There is there to me is a precoid, postcoid. Everything in my life now I I almost look through that lens like it's almost impossible not to. >> 20 No, 100% watershed moment for civilization. 2020 today is is a bit of a blur. Yes, for sure. The the world just feels totally different after CO happened. >> Although anecdotated coming in, um the train station in my town is back to normal. I know office occupancy isn't. Subway turn styles aren't, but it feels like everybody's back to work. >> And what do you think it was at? >> No, it's not. It's not 5 days a week, of course. But I go in on Thursday, it's packed. The the parking lots are full again. But a couple years ago, it was what, 50% full? 75%. >> Yeah. Um, all right. Anyway, I say that because I was looking at I was revisiting my 2025 predictions, which I haven't looked at since I made them, and I honestly like I remember writing this, but if you asked me to name one of my 10 predictions, I don't think I could have done it. Like, I totally forgot what I wrote. >> Bitcoin's going to crash. There's going to be a correction. What did you say? I Oh, here they are. >> Well, no, they're right. Anyway, the these are all news to me. So, let's see how I did. You know what I did this year? I I did it in Gambling Gods, right? I like because I think a a couple years ago, I I said a few things that were like outlandish. Obviously, like it was a long shot. So, I wanted to make sure that I st I staked my claim, >> right? If you call them surprises, no one can call you out on them when they don't happen. I like I like the odds things here. >> Yeah. Okay. All right. So, private investment surge was number one. That was my my table pounder. Um, I probably should have brought data to this conversation, so forgive me, but I'm pretty sure I got this one right. Um, the the uh little hiccup a couple of weeks notwithstanding a couple of weeks ago. >> Yeah, someone someone might take umbrage with that because of the Blue Owl thing, but that doesn't mean the money stopped flowing in. >> That has nothing to do with any with my prediction. But so I I remember I listened to Blackstone uh last quarter as I always do and they did have record flows in the in the third quarter. So I feel like I I need data to to make sure that this is accurate, but I feel like green check here. I feel like with all things, the headlines versus the data will tell you two completely different things. >> Sure. All right. DJs aren't leaving. Um, they're not anything leaving. Yeah. Sure. The DJ Dow had a hell of a year. Actually, in in fact, this was a great year for degenerate stocks. >> Yes. >> Iran, Aqua, Riatoni, all the stocks. Absolutely. So, that was right. Uh, money stays in money market funds. 75% chance. Nailed it. Up to it's almost up to 8 trillion. >> I would tell you that this is a this is an easy pick, but you were on this way before anyone else. You were saying a few years ago. >> Yeah. Yeah. I Yeah, I I was I was early here. >> You were saying it before any was cool. Yes, I agree. That seems like an easy one now, but you did nail that one early. >> All right, so that So, all right, so here's the next one is a 71% chance. So, these these four I was very confident in. 70% chance are better. Mortgage rates remain high. The housing market stays frozen. Check. >> Nailed it >> for sure. Okay. Um, this was a Grand Rapids hedge if there ever was one. Equal weight outperforms cap weight. 52% chance. That's right down the middle. That's a coin toss. Uh that did not happen. Correct. Equal weight is lagging. >> No. Yeah, definitely. Market cap is beating. >> Okay. Um Nvidia to disappoint on an earnings release. Stock closes down 10% on the day. Half right. >> You should have said closes down 20% then. >> Half right. So it did fall 10% on a day, but that was during back in deepseat. Remember that? >> Oh yeah. >> But it did not disappoint on earnings. Um VIX. >> Wait. So S&P is up 18%, equal weight's up 11. >> All right, so big miss. Um, okay. Invid. Okay, I said that already. Vic spiked to 50. 41% chance. Nope. Vic, >> we didn't get to 50 during liberation day. What did we get to? >> Oh, uh, you know what? >> We might have. >> Did I Okay, you know what? Maybe maybe we did. So, I actually looked at this. A VIX spike to 50 does not happen that often. >> Um, you think it happens in the year? It doesn't. Uh, >> wait a like 40ish 37. >> No, no, no. We did. No, we did get there. Okay, check. We did get there. >> Intraday. All right. Yeah, I think that makes sense. >> All right. Micro strategy levered ETF blows up. Um, that was >> a couple weeks for that one to happen. >> No, no, no. That didn't happen. That was a 3% chance. What I meant was like literally go kabooy, like go haywire and fall 90% in the day. Now, the the Micro Strategy levered ETFs are down like 99% or what what I mean they're down a lot, but in in fairness and in spirit of what I was writing, I meant that literally like the swaps that they were using were going to go haywire and the whole thing was going to unravel in a day. That did not happen, >> right? >> Um the worst performance in 24 will be the best in 25. You know what? I apologize. I should have I should have looked at this before I put these in here. Um I do remember writing about Dollar General and Dollar Tree specifically, and that did happen. Um in fact, I I I know what I mentioned. I mentioned Dollar Dollar dollar trio general as some of the best and Mana as well. Um I I did buy both of these stocks. I cut my loss on Mona because I was a crap stock. That's >> I'm going to say that one's wrong. I'm going to be wrong on that one. >> Um >> that's that's a red X >> fine. But but specifically, I mentioned Dollar Tree and that stock is one of the best stocks of the year. >> Okay. >> Um Okay. All right. This was this was a high degree of difficulty here. I I really called my shot with this one. This was getting very cute. Momentum keeps going in the first half, but we have a double digit correction in the back half and and down on the year. Abs. I I gave myself a 1% chance. So, uh, absolutely wrong. And then >> correction was a first half story. >> It was. It really was. And then the obligatory something comes out of nowhere that makes at least half these predictions look very dumb. 90% chance of getting that one right. And I did. Liberation day came out of nowhere. So, those are my predictions. Not bad. Pretty good, actually. >> Five out of 10. >> We're on course to have an average up year. My average up year is 20 to 21% gain. We're right on track for that. Very business as usual. >> Yeah, like always. Uh, okay. So, this chart was making the rounds. This is from Joe Weisenthal. Uh, so Jim Reed via Joe Weisenthal. >> Wait, can I >> Joe Joe and Tracy are coming on TAP this week. >> Oh, nice. >> Yeah, >> we're crossing of worlds here, huh? >> Mhm. >> Uh, okay. Uh, showing how much OpenAI is expected to burn before turning a profits. Uh, and this shows Amazon and Spotify and Tesla and Uber as they're ramping up, right? And it shows obviously the OpenAI is burning way way more money before turning a profit. And obviously it seems to me like if OpenAI was a public company it would be down 40% right now >> at least >> right easily. This this seems to be the poster child. And I'm not sure it matters because they have Microsoft behind them and all these other companies. But like is isn't that the thing like if if this was a public company you think man this thing would getting smoked but I don't know. I don't know if it really matters because all these other comp they have to succeed for these other companies to succeed. >> Well, here's where here's where it matters. Um, if Open AI is is if OpenAI fails >> and like literally is not able to meet its financial obligations. That that is that's the eye of the storm. That's the epicenter. If we're in a bubble, that's the bubble. It's right there. It's a a trillion dollar market cap. um if they fail, we're we're in deep duty >> because then these companies will have to divert some of their cash flows to help them as opposed to continuing to invest, right? >> It's just all of the belief. If the belief goes, we're that's it. Kaput. By the way, did you you listen Oh, you told me. Yeah. You you listen to Michael Barry with Michael Lewis? I listen to him as well. >> Yes. >> He sounds um his voice and his manner of speaking did sound a bit like Sam Alman to me. And I'm not making the criminal connection at all. I'm just saying like I do genuinely believe I mean he said it twice on the podcast that he's on the spectrum. It's so wild the disconnect between social media personality. On social media you could be anyone. >> He's like I I think he's like sort of playing a super villain. I don't know if he if he views himself that way. I would imagine that he >> know sometimes it it's also the the picture you use on social media. His picture looks kind of mean and it's it's I look I look at it like this when I I'm a big okay guy on text. When I my wife will text me this long thing. and I'll say okay and she'll mean she she'll be she'll take offense to it. What do you mean okay? What just okay? That's all. And she takes offense. So I think that's the disconnect you have in your mind. Also this thing on social media. Plus the Christian Bale thing. You're right. When I view the Christian Bale character on the movie versus listening to him with Michael Lewis, that's two completely different people. >> They completely embellished him for the movie, which duh, it's a movie. Um he he is the guy though whenever his 13F comes out every major media outlet h like because he's the big short guy right and we know how this works but if he were to if he were to tweet in voice instead of in text like people would be like oh >> yeah it's not as scary. >> Yeah. >> I I agree. his voice isn't doesn't sound nearly as imposing as his like presence that you have built up in your mind from reading about him in a book and seeing him on a movie played by Christian Bale. >> And this is this is the thing with social media. You could be anyone who you you want to be. Everything is taken out of context. >> We always talk about this. We we've met a lot of people on social media that are like the biggest hugest doomers in the world and you meet them in real life and you go, "Oh, he's like a little puppy dog. He's not really like this. He's playing a character for social media." >> Yeah. Which by the way, that drives me nuts. drives me nuts. I can't it. To me, it's like uh >> which is the real person, >> right? >> Is social media the act or is the in person the act? And I don't know. In some cases, >> it's social it's like when you >> but if you're if you're a dick just at least be that way. >> I remember we we went to when I went to college, there was a guy who it was another I became friends with a with a group of guys and they said, "Hey, this that guy over there, he went to a high school and they said he wasn't like this in in high school. He's trying to change his personality for college, which hey, more power to you. But they're like, that's not really what he's like. He's doing this as a show for college. And that's what social media is. You try to become a different person between high school and college. >> Credit to me. I'm pretty sure when I was active on Twitter that my online personality was more or less in line with my real life personality. >> I try as well. I'm very sarcastic on Twitter and people on social media do not get sarcasm. >> Although you you are more you're not like that in real life. So maybe maybe you're part of the problem now that I think about it. >> I'm not sarcastic >> in real life. You're not a jerk in real life? No. >> Huh? Oh, I'm I'm not a jerk on social media. What are you talking about? >> But sarcasm is like a jerky quality. >> Oh, what? No. Sar not if it's in in justest >> on on social media. Sarcasm is jerky. >> Get out of here. That's just cuz people don't understand it. >> You think sarcasm is highbrow? You're talking over people's heads. I think sarcasm is funny. That's my favorite kind of humor. Could I be any more sarcastic? Chandler, right? That's a great character. >> All right. Anyway, back to this chart. Um, this is a projection. >> Yeah. To 2029. You're right. It's >> It's not like these are the losses to data and it's like, oh my god, like recalibrate everything. This is this is not going to be right. >> You could say, listen, this is way bigger than Amazon in '94 to 2002. That means open ad is going to be way bigger than Amazon, too, because they're taking way more losses. They're just they're just piling it up now so they can make more down the line. >> If this does come true, who's funding all these losses? >> All the big tech firms, right? Yeah, you're right. You're right. This this chart's never going to come true. No way. They the the ROI has to happen way before 2029. >> I just don't think that there's $140 billion worth of losses to be funded. At some point people be like, "Hey, you know what? Probably not a great use of capital, >> right?" Yes. Microsoft CEO is gonna say, "No, this is not what we're doing anymore. Sorry." >> Yeah. >> End of story. >> Okay. This next segment is brought to you by Fidelity. Ben, it is it's earning season. It's outlook season. Excuse me. >> Are you an outlook guy? >> You probably I like to I like to follow the outlooks. Um you're talking about your own outlook, right? Predictions. It it is it is funny because I think we all agree that there's a folly of making predictions and forecasts, but we I think everyone has to do it. Um it's entertaining, right? It's fun. >> I love it. All right. Anyway, go to fidelity.com um to learn more. Link in show notes for what we're talking about here. All right. So, they've got their outlook and they've got like six different like tiles. So, I clicked on this one. International stocks reignite. We've shared this chart before many times. I don't know why I just did this. like I'm like a the weather person. Uh global stock market PE ratios. US of course way above emerging and developed. But here's the thing, Ben. Did you know I think you probably did the degree to which international stocks are outperforming US stocks? I feel like this is way under reported. >> Granted, it's only one year, but it's like massive. >> And Aquexus US is up 30%. 30. and the US the Russell 3000 having been a great year up 17% that's a giant spread >> and the the giant leap the fall in the dollar already happened the dollar has more or less kind of stabilized right it fell 10% and then it kind of stabilized the rest of the year so it's not like this is just a continuation of the dollar falling international stocks have just continued to go up and there's there's been something of a rerating in not only the dollar but valuations have come up a little bit which is good investors are actually interested in these stocks again so I think that we're not talking about this nearly enough that hey in the midst of this huge AI bubble everyone's talking about. International stocks are crushing US stocks right now. >> All right, early peak at my predictions for 2026. This is going to be on the list. Not only are international stocks going to outperform again next year, but it is going to be the year where finally the media pays attention. Not fine. I mean, it's only been it's only been one year, but it's going to be it's going to be headline stuff because you know what reality is? You zoom out, who cares? It's a blip, right? Like if you look at the ratio chart, this is doesn't really register. Give it give it another year, it'll start to register. Do you also think the dollar will continue to fall or is this just a rerating of the stocks then? Is it a currency play or a stock play? >> Stay tuned. >> Okay. You have to do a like a 7A and 7B for that prediction. >> Uh all right. Fidelity's brokerage. They are I don't know if they're the largest 401k provider um record keeper whatever it is uh in the world. They probably are. >> I think they are. And then Vanguard probably next. >> Um 654,000 401k millionaires. That's 3.2% of balances. >> Now that sounds like a low >> that's lower than I would have thought. >> But think about it though. How many people have all of their money in a 401k? Plus people change jobs and so a 401k stays over here and maybe you don't roll it over. So the fact that there are even that many hundreds of thousands of 401k millionaires, I think that's impressive. Yeah, good point. I guess I just would have guessed it was higher. >> Okay, you're not impressed. All right, so this this >> No, no, no. I'm not that impressed. I'm surprised. I would have thought it was higher, but I think you make a valid point, too. >> Right. So 654,000 sounds like a lot. 3.2% doesn't sound like a lot. So this in this Wall Street Journal article, they also talk about um how there's this someone gives the phrase moderate millionaires and it says if you're worth1 to 5 million, you're a moderate millionaire, which sounds kind of degrading. Um but so UBS estimates that the number of such millionaires around the world has quadrupled since 2000 to 52 million this year. Um there were a thousand of these moderate millionaires added every single day in the US last year. >> Okay. So that's the number. Hold on. 52 million around the world. >> Yes. >> And a thousand million >> a day in the US. >> Okay. Wow. >> So So then they talked to the chief economist UBS and he says, "Popular culture still thinks of millionaires in terms of Scrooge McDuck or the top-headed icon of Monopoly. the new dollar millionaires have a broken psycho psychological wealth threshold, but their income and spending is that of a middle-ass household. Um, he said spending like a stereotypical millionaire probably requires at least $5 million, he said. So, this is another one of those things like, you think you're rich? Yeah, you're not rich. Um, but guess what? This is just the millionaire next door. This is nothing new. So, it says that like they have this psychological wealth threshold, but their income and spending doesn't match it. That's a good thing. How do you think these people became wealthy? because they have a middle class household spending an income. This is how they did it. It's like they're trying to reverse. You know, if they spent like a typical millionaire, they wouldn't be millionaires. Duh. That's the thing. This is millionaire next door stuff. Come on, people. >> Um, this morning I uh I showed Kobe a movie that you you might be shocked to learn that I saw this movie in the theater. No way. When you were six. Okay. >> What's that? >> When you were six. >> I was nine. >> Okay. >> About his age. All right. 1994. I I'm sure you saw this movie. >> Uh Blank Check. >> Ah, yes. >> So Blank, right? You saw that movie. Blank Check is I'm positive I saw that at somebody's birthday party. Blank Check uh is on Disney. Um James Reborn, the ultimate that guy. Yeah. >> Right. The dad. So he was the dad in blank check. He He was 45 in that movie. I guess maybe that looks about right. But he was he was your age in that movie, >> right? >> How? >> And he looked that way his whole life pretty much seems like. Right. >> So the story of that movie, this kid gets a blank check and he he has like he's like, "Oh no, it's my boss's money. It's Mr. Macintosh." Remember that? >> Cuz a car hits him or something. The guy just gives him a check. Does he write it for a million dollars? >> Great recall, Ben. Wow. Credit to you. >> I remember that. >> Um >> does he write it for a million dollars? I don't remember. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Okay. So his dad So he gets a blank check from his grandma. His dad asks, "How much did you get last year?" "10 bucks." And the kid goes, "Yeah, but what about inflation?" So he gives him $11. He plugs into his computer. This kid was very savvy. He plugs into his computer. I forgot what the interest rate was. How much would it How many years would it take to go from $11 to a million? It said like 340,000 years. Kobe lost it. He thought it was the funniest thing ever. Anyway, great movie for kids. It's on Disney. >> Did you ever receive the movie from the 80s, Brewster's Millions? >> No. >> Okay. It's a John Candy classic. So, it's it's um John Candy and Richard Prior and he has 30 days to spend $30 million, >> but he can't just give it away. And if he does gives away 30 million, he he inherits 300 million. >> It's a good one. And he he has a hard time spending that much money in the 80s. >> Today, I think that would be very easy. >> Um Okay. We didn't mention this last week, but Goldman Sachs bought in ETFs. We had our first talker book interview with Bruce Bond, I think, in 2018. >> Yeah. >> And we did it. We were in Chicago visiting our our office there and we we were in like the basement. >> Where were we? >> We were in the basement of a Weiwork building. >> Okay. >> Right. So, we interviewed Bruce Bond there and he told us the idea and the light bulb immediately went off for both of us and we go, "Oh my gosh, this is going to be huge." And we've been saying this all like we could just tell for adviserss and clients and retirees, this idea is going to be massive. And every time we talked to Bruce, we talked to him, I don't know, half dozen times over the years, maybe more. And every time we talked to him, the assets would get bigger and bigger and bigger. And last week, Goldman Sachs is going to buy them for $2 billion. Now, a lot of people looked at it said, "Geez, $2 billion." And they they managed 28 billion, right? That seems like a lot in terms of like a multiple. >> That's going to be hundred billion. >> But also a lot a lot of other people said also um Goldman Sachs can do the option flow, right? So they these are option strategies so they can make money there somehow too. But there's a lot of people in the industry who who don't like these kind of strategies and don't get them and they say they're suboptimal and if you did if you use this optimization positionation strategy you could do this and make the same return stream. And I think it just totally misses that's a total spreadsheet mindset that misses the psychological component of these strategies. And I think that's the thing you and I latched on to immediately. It's a psychological thing, not a number spreadsheet thing. And that's why this thing was such a success and garnered so much money. >> Um, and it's an interesting pairing, I think, for Goldman, but obviously they wanted to increase their ETF business. >> Um, anyway, shout out to Bruce and the whole team. Very happy for them. What a what an exit. It's awesome. >> He's a great Yeah, great guy, too. Uh, and his second huge exit cuz he was at PowerShares as well and they were bought out. Um, question was it I was a power pro. >> What did I say? >> Okay. One of the Ps um one of the things you and I have been talking about for years now is where does this money keep coming from? People, you know, putting more money into stocks and more money into money markets and Bitcoin and everything. Ryan Dietrich uh from Carson Group, also with the Fax and Fielding podcast, which is great. Uh he says disposable income and employee compensation continue to grow faster than inflation. And he looks at it over the past three, six, and one-year periods. And he's looking at disposable income and employee compensation. Then PCE inflation, which is the Fed's inflation rate that they look at. And >> No, no, Ben. Ben, Ben Ben, Ben Ben, you have to say their preferred gauge. >> Sorry. Preferred gauge. True. Um, and disposable income and compensation continues to grow at a pace that's faster than inflation. And this is the piece that we never talk about when people complain about inflation. It's also bringing up this, and I know because we know why this is people when people get a raise, they think it's them. when inflation happens they think it's the government. Uh but this people just have more I don't think people realize with inflation rising 25% this decade that also means pretty much a commensurate 25% increase in wages and salaries on a nominal right a nominal basis uh and I think it's actually been a little bit more that's where a lot of this money is coming from people have more money to spend now >> yeah you know what I think if you pull a 100 people with the benefit of hindsight I think most people would say you know what I'd rather like one and a % uh wage gains and 1.8% inflation. I'd rather lose to inflation and have normal price increases than this. >> I agree. >> People People would rather inflation be a invisible tax than this. >> It is >> because with this it feels like I I can't get ahead. I got a 25% raise and I'm still in the same spot. >> It is funny. People I'm Yeah, the people prefer the 2010s which was that situation. But it's funny, back then, remember all the policy wonks were going, we need to get inflation higher. This is too low. >> Well, yes, exactly. >> Uh, speaking of uh like where does the money keep coming from? We had Vlad on TAF. Did you listen to that? >> Yes. Yeah, he's I mean >> I they said they're going to rule the world, I guess. >> I really enjoyed spending time with him. Um, frankly, more than I thought. I I I I enjoyed his company. Um, >> did you really like his hair? Is that what that what it was? >> Did I really like his hair? Are you kidding me? It's got some nice hair. >> It's incredible. Uh in the third quarter, their net deposits was like I can't remember if it was 20 billion or 28 billion. It's where's all the money coming from? I guess this is I mean it's just wages, right? Where else could it be coming from? >> Right. And yeah, and obviously the the thing that they've done with the breaking down the barriers is you have the automatic deposits on, right? And that money just keeps coming and coming and coming and every time you get new customers, their money keeps coming and coming and it it's compounding on top of compounding. >> We spoke. Not only is the market up, but more money is coming in. On top of that, >> we spoke briefly about what it was like for him in the aftermath of the GameStop stuff. Like, I can't imagine how many death threats he got, right? People are like he was he he went from relatively unknown character to front page of every magazine, >> right? >> Like overnight um global villain. >> Like that must have been a wild personal experience. >> Yes. Sometimes people do separate the that there's people involved in these things too. Yes, it's >> all right. Um the labor market is not doing very well. Uh I think the stock market has probably overshadowed this. We'd be talking a lot more about the the the cooling economy if the stock market wasn't doing what it was doing. So Kevin Gordon tweeted last week, "O businesses with 20 to 49 employees shed 74,000 payrolls in November. That was the sixth decline out of the past seven months and the largest drop since October 2020. That's really bad. These are pretty small businesses. Uh, six declines in the last seven months. >> So, you said that the stock market doesn't seem to care yet. Consumers don't care yet either. So, this is from our friends at the transcript. They always have good stuff. I I feel like I'm I'm pulling a Michael Badnick here, but the they pulled stuff from the Mastercard CEO, the Visa CEO, and then Travel and Leisure Company. I don't know that one. TNL um and they talk about the difference between sentiment and actual behavior again. So this is what we keep coming back to. So the labor market is not impacting consumer behavior yet according to these CEOs. Um he says there's a divergence between the soft and hard data. We read all the headlines and some of the survey results around the consumer sentiment. It seems increaser and gloomy gloomy but what we see the hard data continues to be very supportive of consistent spend metrics through October and into the first two weeks of November. We've seen spending metrics across all our key drivers remain generally in line. And so we're encouraged by that. That's Mastercard. Same thing with with Visa, right? If I had to use one word, it would be stable. If I had two, it would be stable and strong. People continue to spend and then this travel and leisure person says, "One thread for us that's been super consistent has been the performance of our consumer. Our consumer has held up very nicely and looking forward to stepping into 2026. People keep spending money." So even if the labor market on the edges, because I think that's what it is. Labor market is slowing on the edges. It's not Listen, the the unemployment rate is still below 5%. Right? So, I know when people lose jobs, that's that's tough. It's hardship. If the unemployment rate goes from four and a half% right now to 5 and a half%, right? That's a lot. That's millions of people losing their jobs. There's still hundreds of millions of people are still working and spending. So, doesn't it seem like it could be a while before this market actually translates into a bad economy? It's going to have to get way worse, I think, before it really translates. That's my theory. >> Yeah, I think I think that's I think that's right. >> All right. Um I'm for a while at least remember I think there's you've pulled a Brett Favre a few times on the cape ratio and said like hey I'm returning from talking about the cape ratio ever again and then it comes back. I think I want to talk about this wealth and happiness thing one more time then put it to bed for a little while not forever obviously. >> Can you not compare me to Brett maybe use somebody else >> the comes comes to mind. Yeah it's true. Um so I thought that Chris Arn Chris how do how do you say his last name? Chris Arnade Chris Arnady I never um he has this uh Chris Arnati walks the world. So he's the guy who used to be a Wall Street trader and now he just he goes around the world and he travels and he walks and he talks to people and he basically says like I I want to kind of give my theory on this like why even if even if we're the wealthiest we've ever been in this country in the history of the world why are there so many people are still unhappy and why do we keep having these debates about what is wealth and are you rich or are they rich or why aren't rich people happier and um he says Americans are materially wealthy and unfulfilled. The primary problem is cultural. We've sacrificed community and meaning to emphasize an archetype built on acquiring as much stuff as possible. But then we have made that unnecessarily hard to do. And his whole thing is like >> if the you can have all the money in the world, but without meaning it doesn't matter. And there's there's no community and there's no >> we're a material society and it's it's all it's all hollow. >> So yeah, that's the that's the thing. That's why all the material you can say, hey, we have iPhones now and we have this and we have this and we have that and everyone have two cars and three car garages and that stuff doesn't bring happiness. And that's his whole point. if there's no meaning behind the money, it doesn't matter. And that I thought that's a good like stamp on this thing. And uh >> all right, let's >> also we've realized we're never changing anyone's mind on this stuff, right? You should feel wealthy or you shouldn't feel you're in this class, you're in that class. Literally, no one's changing their mind on that. That's never going to happen. Okay, let's move on. Okay, I've got a question for you on inflation. So, I I tweeted this out. We were at Target last week. Uh, we actually went to Target and made our kids because like I'm trying the hardest we can to not raise spoiled kids because they're talking about all the stuff they want for Christmas. And so I found my wife and they said, "All right, we're going to Target and we're picking out Toys for Tots stuff for other kids, right? You guys have to learn and you're not getting anything." >> Good for you. I love that. >> So we went to I got a big Toys for Tots box at my Planet Fitness that I go to and I dropped them all off. So I I said I tweeted this. I saw a 65 in TV at Target for $250 and I said, "It feels like someday Netflix is just going to give us all TVs and say, "Hey, here's a TV for you. It comes preloaded with Netflix. That's part of your subscription. So, phones are more expensive, computers are more expensive, automobiles are more expensive. Why do TVs keep getting so much cheaper? Every single year, TVs get better in quality and they go down in price. I do not get it. Why is it everything else is exp more expensive besides TVs? Please explain it to me. >> Okay. I would say the business model and the economics. That's like my knee-jerk reaction. Apple knows that you're going to replace the phone. like they just know you're going to the phone's going to slow down. Technology is going to get better and they can raise the price. I think the TV market is hyper competitive. People don't replace our TVs every day except for me and they need to compete on and so that's why prices are cheaper. >> I don't get and so I've my new theory for TVs is we have a really decently nice TV in like the main family room, right? We have one of those frame Samsung ones and then all the other T's we have cuz I love TVs all over the place is a really like I get the cheaper versions now cuz I know in three or four years I'm going to just replace it cuz there's going to be a nicer, faster, better picture and I just I don't understand. Someone's got to give me a explainer why they keep getting cheaper. Like there has to be a technological component to it. Like what's the inflation piece that this technology is getting cheaper? >> Do you think Do you think the cost to manufacture the iPhone keeps going up? I doubt it. I mean, may maybe it does. I don't know. >> I mean, there's more stuff. I just um someone who knows this stuff. >> Oh, how about this? You know what? The the technology of the iPhone is incredible. I know that they're spending gazillions of dollars in capex. So, I I take that back. I'm sure it is going up, but is it going up commensurate with the price increases? That part I doubt. >> I I think obviously phones are an amazing leap forward, but I think just TVs from what we grew up with, the tube TV, the box, remember the zenith brown stuff all around it? It was huge in the back. We had antennas. You'd put the phone the, you know, tin foil on them and hope the antenna would work for a channel. Uh I just think the leap forward we've had in TVs in my lifetime has just been one of the great >> remember our parents saying get away from the TV cuz you were you cuz you had to sit two feet in front of it otherwise you couldn't see. >> Like it was so blurry. I was like, "Wait, is that is that John Starks? I can't." >> Yeah. >> Hit the side of the TV. I just think the the I think this is just one of the great leaps forward we've had in our lifetime in HD quality and size and it's >> Can I can I give another I think I plugged this a couple of weeks ago. The Amazon what is it called? Is it like the Echo Show? I'm not even sure what it's called. Did I say this on the podcast? I can't remember. >> Oh yeah. Where it's got the screen and >> Okay. So it's like 15 inches. So in my in my We don't have a a TV in my kitchen area. Um but we've got like this 15-inch thing. You pick it up. You can move it. It It's a wire, but like the the the screen swivels. We It has all of the apps. It has Netflix, Disney Prime, whatever. Um it there's Amazon TV now, but there's like channels on there, which I I only saw briefly. I haven't really um looked into it, but my favorite part of this device is I synced it to my photo app to my photos on my phone. >> It runs through your phone. >> So, it gives us memories. And every day I walk past it and I see a picture from 2019 or when Kobe was born in 2017 or whatever. Like I love it. It's a So highly recommend. I don't I don't think it was that expensive, but great purchase. Phenomenal purchase. >> Nice to have a little TV in your kitchen, too. >> A material purchase that made me happier. >> All right. I I told you I'm on board. I I've completely changed my tune on this. I think material purchases can make you happier. >> When I wear a nice new sweater, it brings joy to my life. >> That is a very nice sweater. One other material purchase that I've been plugging that I feel bad about is the Tommy John's stuff, which by the way, life changer. And I've had a lot of emails, Michael, these are really expensive. Yeah, they are really expensive. Guess what? They're like what, 35, 40 bucks for an undershirt. I will wear these undershirts. How many times will I wear these before I throw them out? Let's be honest. 15, 20 at least. So, it'll be $2 a wear. My life is so much better with these undershirts, not sweating. However, I here's here's where I apologize. There's two versions. One of them is like a very skinny one that's like it like hugs your body. I feel >> I got that and it felt really uncomfortable. >> You got Did you return it or did you just wear it? >> I get I told I asked my wife if she wanted cuz it was like it was so tight. >> Yeah, it's very tight. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Not that one. >> Okay. The other one. >> Make Make sure you don't get that one. >> Okay. >> Okay. Here's a quote, Ben. Back to the transcript. Um All right. Here's a quote from the CEO of IBM. So, let's ground this in today's cost. This was on a podcast. I know which podcast. So, let's ground this in today's cost because anything in the future is speculative. It takes about $80 billion to fill up a 1 gawatt data center. That's today's number. If one company is going to commit 20 to 30 gawatt, that's $1.5 trillion of capex. to the point we just made, you've got to use it all in five years because at that point you've got to throw it away and refill it. Then if I look at the total commits in the world in this space in chasing AGI, it seems to be like 100 gawatt with these announcements. That's $8 trillion of capex. It's my view that there's no way you're going to get a return on that because $8 trillion of capex means you need roughly $800 billion of profits just to pay for the interest. These numbers are so bananas it's hard to wrap your head around. >> Okay, >> that doesn't make sense. >> The first the first ever computer that we had in our house was an IBM PC. Um BB gun to your head. What does IBM do? Because if you look at their chart, their stock chart, they're going crazy. They're up like 100% over the last two years. What does IBM even do anymore? I have no idea. Like I used to use IBM for a word processor. >> What do you mean what do they do? They're it's the main frames. >> I It's just impressive to me that this company is still around. They were >> enterprise enterprise software up in the cloud. >> Nifty50 back in the 70s. >> I could I couldn't explain to you what IBM does. >> Going bonkers, but yes. Okay. Yes. These numbers are insane. And I guess the whole point is that like I think just like the OpenAI stuff, all of these estimates, there's no way any of them are going to be true, right? There there something something has to give. It can't be there can't be that much spend on this stuff. It can't it won't happen. >> If you knew that there would be $8 trillion of capex, what would you do? >> Nothing. I don't know what what am I supposed to do? What would you do? >> Get gig along. I I guess >> before the and then get out when it before the top. Hello. >> Come on, Ben. >> Uh, all right. Here's a chart. Um, last week I I don't think I think we we skipped this last week by accident. Vanguard announced that they're allowing their customers to buy crypto. >> Did that really put a bottom into Bitcoin prices? >> I think it did. It seemed to coincide with >> No, it it No, it definitely did because the day before crypto had a really disgusting candle, like really ugly, and then that morning when this was announced, it was the bottom. So, yes, I I do think it put a bottom. >> Do you think Vanguard customers will buy Bitcoin ETFs? >> Um, no. Because I bet if you looked at the percentage of clients who buy it at different, you know, TRA and Fidelity and all these different places, Robin Hood, of course, it's going to be a tiny tiny percentage of Vanguard. >> I totally agree with you. So, I don't think that it matters. I think for sentiment it mattered. But will Vanguard investors buy a meaningful amount of Bitcoin at Vanguard's brokerage? No. If they really wanted to, they would have just done it already. They would have gone somewhere else. Yeah. It's not like it's hard to do it. >> Um, >> anyway, it wasn't just them. Bank of America also announced that they're going to be letting their advisers at Maryland buy it. Um, but flows have been pretty pretty ugly. Going back to January 20 24, this is the second worst taught us a chart showing this is the second worst uh 20-day flow for crypto. >> So, it's like a chicken in the egg thing. Did the flows cause the price to fall or did the flows fall because the price is falling? >> Both. >> There you go. Uh, yeah, good chart here, though. Let's talk about real estate. Um, I'd said earlier that like sometimes you have to separate the headlines from the data. So, the Wall Street Journal had this article, when home sellers set prices too high, they're paying for it. Says more than half of homes sold in 2025 through October had at least one price cut. You look at that and you go, geez, the housing market must be getting killed. And they looked at this and yeah, it's I think it's almost 60% of houses that But the average difference between the list price and the sale price is 3.7%. That's pretty tiny. Okay. That's not that much. >> No, it's not. No, it's not. Percentage wise, it's tiny, but like on a million dollars, it's not nothing. >> But it but it also says that so 57% of homes sold this year have had a price cut, but between 2020 and 2024, it was 47% of homes. So, don't you think almost all of these negotiations there is a price cut involved when someone comes in? >> I think that that's just how this selling process works. >> Um I I just think the Yeah, you're right. 3.7% on a big But if you look at this look at this chart here, share of active listing homes with a price reduction by month. It looks like we're just back to 2010 levels. It just was way way lower in 2021 and 2022 when you had all these bidding wars and it was 5% of them because people weren't going to lower prices cuz there the supply wasn't there. But now it's back up to 20 which looks to me like about what it was at the peaks in 2017 2018. So it's not that much different. >> Let me ask you this. What's your outlook on 2026 housing? Because we're we're going to get another rate cut tomorrow. I think I think that's the expectation. I think we muddle through again. It's like housing prices are up 2% and even if mortgage >> What about activity? Are we going to see a significant uptick in activity? >> I'd say it's more of a normalization. How about that? >> Is that a copout? >> I mean, it didn't answer my question. >> This year was a normalization type of year. >> I I asked if we're going to get a significant uptick in activity. You're saying >> I don't think I don't think activity is going to go bonkers, especially if the labor market continues to soften. I don't think that the housing market is gonna go crazy. How about you? >> I agree. Uh I own uh I own Rocket. I think I might sell it. >> Okay, here's one more from Logan Mosami. Just to put this one to bed again on the first-time home buyers. Remember N said, "Hey, the median age of first- time home buyers is now 40 years old." And people lost their minds. And if you compare this chart, it looks at all these other surveys and databases and those numbers have not increased barely at all. They're still around 31 32 years old. and the N is the only one that's going higher. So, this was a survey problem, not a housing market problem. So, the median first-time home buyer is still around the same age as they've been for the last 10, 11, 12 years. >> H >> survey of the week. We haven't done these in a while. Uh almost half, 46% of Americans say the cost of living in the US is the worst. >> That noise that you just made was like werewolves of London. >> What was that? >> Daniel should do a music over. >> Good song. uh say the cost of living in the US is the worst they can ever remember it being. Uh and they say the they're talking about whose problem whose responsibility is and they say it's Trump's responsibility or whatever. Um I think that this is obviously like Trump and Biden have done themselves no favor on inflation. Like Biden spent more money, Trump has put tariffs on. Like they didn't do anything. But I don't really think there's anything they could have done to lower inflation that much beyond putting the economy into recession. Like I think whoever is in office is going to get blamed for inflation. And I think people who say I'm going to come in and save us all from inflation. They there's no way they can ever deliver on their promises. >> Trump way beyond their control. >> I saw a great quote yesterday about inflation from Trump. Um >> I don't know. It's perfect. It was like the it's I don't know if he said it's beautiful. It's perfect. There's basically no inflation. It was so good. >> But politicians I know they have to say, "Hey, we're going to come in and fix prices." But they can't. They literally can't. There nothing they can do. Yeah, >> they can make it worse. They can't make it better. >> Uh, >> how's that? >> Yeah, >> unless they send us into recession, I don't think there's anything they can do to really make it better. >> Um, >> so people are always just going to be mad about it. >> Oh, yeah. If they send us into a recession, if if the liberation if the tariffs stayed on like the Liberation Day tariff announcements, that would have put us into a recession and prices would have come down. >> Yes. Yes. Exactly. Um, okay. One more thing before Netflix. All right. So, the Washington Post had this story about how baby boomers got so rich and why their kids are unlucky to catch up. And they say baby boomers have $85 trillion in assets. They're the richest gen generation by far. I keep seeing all these charts showing people over 70 have steadily increased their grip on wealth and it's like people who are 60 or 70 or over have more wealth than they've ever had in history. Um, by contrast, people in their 40s are losing ground comparatively on a relative basis relative to history. But this is just here's the thing. Millennials are going to be the richest generation someday because we we know baby boomers are not going to spend all of their wealth. We've seen this. We've had these conversations. Wealthy people are not going to spend all their money. They're going to pass it down. And guess what? Then millennials will be the richest generation. >> Dude, this is like Brewster's Millions. Is it Brewster's What's the name of the movie? >> Yeah. Brewster's Millions. >> Yeah. In real life. >> Yeah. So, that's what's going to happen. And the fact that there's so many more people over 70 that are richer because the baby boomers didn't have an offsetting generation. Millennials have the baby boomers. Baby boomers had no one as big as them then. So like there wasn't a huge generation that could live so long and be so wealthy. So this is just a compounding thing. This is not like a crisis. >> That money is going to be passed down. >> It's not I I absolutely think young people are going to be just as rich or richer than their parents. >> Yeah. All right. Um big news last week. This week Netflix uh has an offer accepted from Warner Brothers to buy the stock for $72 billion in equity. It's another $10 billion in debt. Um, I can't believe it. I mean, I guess I can believe it, but like my my initial reaction was, "Oh my god." I really thought that Paramount was going to take it. I think everybody did. Poly Market reflected that. Um, so I don't want to take for granted that everybody knows what Warner Brothers does. I mean, everybody knows it's a big studio, but these are the directors that they've worked with like exclusively for the most part. So Clint Eastwood's entire career only did movies with with Warner Brothers. Stanley Kubri, um Todd Phillips, the Wowskis, Nolan, Minus Oppenheimer. These are these are some >> I say like Todd Phillips has some good stuff. I think it's funny you put Todd Phillips in this group. >> Well, >> um that's kind of like Big Berg sitting at the >> chatbt gave me Todd Phillips. >> Okay. >> Uh well, no, he cuz Joker was another huge one. Like he deserves to be there. >> No, hangover. >> Hangover, >> dude. Those were anyway. Um, Harry Potter, uh, Barbie, Dark Knight, Lord of the Rings, Matrix, Casablanca, The Exorcist, Superman, All the President's Men, Batman, The Shining, Twist of the Fugitive, Dune. Um, it, uh, which, by the way, there's a new show, Welcome to some something. I watched the first episode. Haven't heard anything about it. I saw this morning on Twitter like it's the finale. I have literally not seen anybody talk about it. All right. There's obviously the the studio um, I'm sorry, the streamer, HBO Max. >> You and I walked by the studio when we were in California earlier this week. >> That was so sick. So sick walking by the uh the water tower. They are so the deal does not include the networks. So no CNN, TNT. That's going to be >> discovery all that stuff. So the big freakout from people was oh my gosh this is going to be the end of movies, right? And so Lucas Shaw said Netflix reiterates it will release Warner Brothers movies in theaters. It'll produce their shows. Um it sounds like they still don't know what HBO and I I give the Ron Burger. I don't believe you. Um I think let's say this Huh. What don't you believe? >> That they're going to keep releasing these movies and they're they're going to play out their contracts that they have now if they acquire them, but then all those movies are going straight to Netflix from there on. Like >> no, >> I see I think you have like you as a movie theater person, I think this is the beginning of the end for movie theater. Like this I think like there's still going to be there, but the writing's on the wall, man. These things are going to be going straight to streamers for the most part. There's going to be it's going to be really huge blockbusters at the theater and not as like these are going straight to Netflix, man. This is going to happen. This this is the future we're living in. >> I don't I don't think this is the beginning of the end. Um >> I I definitely do. >> No, I think it's maybe the end of the beginning. Like this was already emotion. It's not like it's not like I don't think that you're going to see in the in the data. And I'm going to save this data because Josh and I are having a a Hollywood guy on uh TEF next week. I had I had Matt crank out some incredible charts that I'm very excited to talk through. Movie theater has been in secular decline obviously. So I don't think that there's going to be in 10 years now a I don't think you're going to be able to look at the before and after. I don't think it's going to change the data. I think it's already it already happened. So what what what Sarandos and Peter said because they did a they did a call on Friday um after the announcement. What they're going to do at least what they say they're going to do. Now, they've said a lot of things that they then changed their mind on is that they want to shorten the e exclusivity. So, if a if a movie was going to be in the theaters for 45 days, they want to shorten that window, which in effect is going to continue to maybe be the final nail in the coffin for movie theaters. to your point because if a movie only has a two week release like Doom 3 for example obviously I'm going to see that in IMAX but for most people if it's only going to be in the theater for two weeks they're just going to wait. >> Yes. >> So I think that this is this is bad for movie theaters. Um but this is better for Hollywood than Paramount buying it. At least this is what like Bellamy and the smart people are saying because Paramount already has a movie studio. So there would be a lot of cost cutting because there would be a lot of overlap between the two studios. Netflix obviously does not have a movie studio. So it's not like they're going to buy Warner and just gut the place because they need these people to produce a movie. >> So my my biggest worry about your biggest worry should be movie theaters. My biggest worry is HBO. Like I'm worried about how HBO is going to be handled here because I feel like that's like the the best to me that's the top echelon of shows. >> It is that's the crown jewel. >> So that's my worry here. I if I'm having to choose between Netflix and Paramount, like Paramount Plus is kind of garbage as a streamer. Like the just the interf like I would much rather have Netflix take this over and make it better because honestly HBO Max too is so glitchy. Like if they put it on Netflix, I just I hope they keep the HBO people. The thing is you mentioned like all the directors and movies that have been made. Um the thing is people aren't tied to these studios forever now. like they'll just if if they're not treated well because we this this studio this company bought Warner Brothers and they're not doing it as well, they're going to go somewhere else. Like the people are the thing that matter. Yeah. >> Obviously at Netflix wants the IP and the library and all that stuff. So you would rather have Netflix take it over. It sounds like >> I don't I don't know. I I think for for labor Netflix is way better. For theaters it's it's way worse. >> I think for consumers this is a it's a better idea if Netflix gets it. That's my >> Paramount came over the top with a hostile bid. They offered more. Who knows where this is going to shake out. Kushner is is involved with the Ellison's now. So, it's not like it's the deal is far from done. >> I I just I don't know much about David Ellison, but I think that he should probably step back because Larry Ellison needs to save his money because Michigan needs some new wide receivers and new DBs. He's got to save his money for Michigan's NIL program. Stop getting into this bidding war. Let Netflix have it. That's my That's my theory. >> Uh he's they're not going to let Netflix have it. So, what does this do for So wait, does Netflix come back on and try to go over top and try to just keep running the price up then? >> I don't think so. So the question is like why did Netflix do this? Because they they already won and I what people are saying is they're just competing with YouTube. They just they just need it's a land grab. It's Netflix versus YouTube. That's it. >> That's what Ben Thompson at Stetery said. He s like Netflix is worried about YouTube. That's like their biggest competitor. Now there's this chart in the Wall Street Journal that shows share of US TV viewing time by distributor. YouTube's going up into the right. Netflix has sort of flattened out. Warner Brothers and Discovery have fallen. This makes a lot of sense to me that Netflix is it's almost it's because it seems like a little bit of a desperate move on their part. Why would they need to do this? >> It doesn't make sense to me if I'm like, listen, they're they're great executives and they obviously know more about their business and the industry than I do. It it does of desperation a little bit. Um there's >> they can pull us off. They But here's the thing. They have 300 million subscribers. Max has 130. There's obviously a lot. They said this on the call. I don't know what the overlap is. I'm going to guess 75%. Right. They're not huge. >> They're not adding a lot of new subscribers. And the their streamer, it's not like it's not that profitable. Most of most of Warner Brothers Discovery's profits from are from the the the legacy cable channels. Now, they're obviously in secular decline, but I don't I don't see the the the the cost synergies, the profits. Like, they say that there's going to be $2 to3 billion of cost savings that's going to flow through. I don't think that this is economically a good deal for them. Um, >> here's the thing. In our lifetimes, there's never been an entertainment merger like this that has worked every single time. None of these big acquisitions or mergers and entertainment like this have ever worked. >> But, but but this is so different. Yes, that's true. And also there has never been this sort of content plus distribution strategy. Those are two separate businesses. There was never a Netflix type of thing. >> I would the thing is I would have way more confidence that Netflix could pull this off. And still I would be a little hesitant that like again we've never seen this work out very good for these companies to do this. HBO has been passed around to so many different companies at this point. That's that's my biggest concern. >> Don't ruin White Lotus for us. Okay. Keep that stuff going. But I think I think the bidding war is going to be entertaining though. Yeah. And Poly Market has it pretty much dead even. They have Paramount at 43%, Netflix at 38%. >> I think Paramount steals it if I had to guess on on the outcome. And in fact, I wonder if Netflix is counting on that. >> Could be that they do. You think they'd really go through this whole thing just to drive up the price? >> Well, no, because the the breakup fee is $5.8 billion. So, if Netflix No, that that's stupid. if Netflix doesn't get the deal um because it either falls through for regulatory purposes. So if if if Paramount steals it, then I believe Warner has to pay Netflix a $2 point something billion dollar breakup fee. But if the deal doesn't go through, well maybe that is a strategy. I have no idea. >> So the question is what matters more to the decision-making? Is it the CEO who seems like he wants to get in bed with Netflix or is it the shareholders who've now been offered a much better deal? >> Yeah. Now Paramount needs Warner. Like if Paramount if Netflix gets Warner Brothers for real and Paramount is just Paramount, they're dead. >> Well, then Paramount will just buy Peacock, right? >> There needs to be consolidation. That's what we know. >> I don't know if Peacock is for sale. >> Well, it's going to be like it's if it's Netflix and Warner Brothers and then Disney Hulu and then it's got to be Paralon Peacock. Like, there needs to be consolidation just for me because so I don't have many passwords. That's all I'm asking for. >> Anyway, this is obviously the the most fascinating story. Uh >> it really is. It's very >> great stuff. A I mean a company like Netflix who's never done a big acquisition like this just freaking all in. >> Were you Were you shocked? Like I I I I I couldn't believe it. >> Yeah. I I Yes. I didn't I did not expect that. It does wreak of desperation, but it's also like, well, maybe they're going on the offensive. So, I could see it both ways. I just think >> so. They're they're like, this is just this is game over. It's like the disruptor bought Hollywood. I mean, Warner Brothers is Hollywood. I just think it'll be a blessing in disguise if Netflix doesn't get this because these deals barely ever work out. That would be my That would be my baseline. >> If I knew, how about this? If I knew that Paramount was not going to If I knew that Paramount was going to steal Netflix, I would buy the stock Handover Fist today. >> You would buy what? >> Buy Netflix. Okay. >> And it's been falling a lot, too, right? >> Yeah. If I knew the deal wasn't going to go through, I would buy Netflix. I'd back up the truck. >> All right. Um, I'm looking for a positive spin on Gen Z being so unhappy. And I hope that will mean we get better creativity from them. So, there was two things I saw this week that people just love nostalgia, but they don't really know what was going on at the time. So, I think people I've been saying this for a while, people are going to be nostalgic for the 2020s in like 10 years. So, there's a story in the New York Times saying, >> I won't let that happen. I'm going to be I'm going to be the the nostalgic grunch. >> Listen, so is Gen X actually the greatest generation? And they say how one era changed everything about the culture and why we're so nostalgic for it. creators and they talk about the everything that came out of the '9s and how great it was and there was Kurt Cobain and there was Reality Bites and all this stuff and they went through all this list of stuff that Gen X created and it's a it's a great list, right? Um and then I saw this tweet going around saying apparently there is a Gen Z Tik Tok trend where they were romanticizing being a millennial in 2012 and it's saying like I want to be in Brooklyn in 2012 cuz millennials were so happy and optimistic. I'm here to tell you millennials were not optimistic about anything in 2012. >> We couldn't get jobs. What? No, this is this is a totally rewriting of history. >> But the thing is like they talk about how one of the reasons that Gen X produced so much great content is because they're all unhappy. >> Like even in the '90s, people think about the stuff that came out in 1999 at the height of the do bubble uh Fight Club and and American Beauty and all these movies. It was in that movie book that we read, >> The Matrix. >> Yes. All this stuff. People were so unhappy and they're saying that's what led to them being so creative and making good stuff. So Gen Z, I get it. You guys are all sad and depressed and you hate your lives and everything is bad. Make some good art for us then. That's going to be the positive. >> They can't. There's AI. >> Make good stuff. Jen. Okay. Uh, one thing from last week. I said my heater broke and we couldn't come up with the word and a million people said, "Hey, it's a furnace, idiots." Uh, we couldn't come up with the word furnace. >> Okay, >> fair enough. That's a middle-aged thing for me, though. Um, >> I I can't come up with any words. >> Having a word at the tip of my tongue and not be able to come up with it. All right, let's do recommendations. You got anything? I do. Um I don't know if I don't know if I have like uh you you're not a Wayne's World guy. >> Why? I rewatched it again last year actually. >> Okay. I don't know if I have mono. There's a line where Wayne goes, "I thought I I thought I had mono for a month. Turns out I was just really bored. I I'm so tired all the time, especially when I get into bed. I can't I cannot watch anything in bed." Now, maybe maybe it's because Jay Kelly is just really boring, but I'm a I'm actually a no boundback guy. That might surprise you about me about you. Surprise you. >> Squid and the Whale you liked? Well, you're a family. You're a child of divorce. You had to watch You had to like Squid and the Whale. >> Love Squid and the Whale. And I liked uh Marriage Game. Marriage story. Marriage story. >> Oh, I didn't I didn't care for that one. >> Okay. Um Jay Kelly, what did you think? I did. Did you like it? >> I was going to get on here. I was going to get on here and tell you don't watch it. Here's the funny thing. It was not a good movie. Like it was it was surprising that it was a Noah Bombbeck movie because it was like it's kind of cheesy. It's very sentimental, but I enjoyed hanging out with Clooney and Sandler. I thought those two I thought that was one of the it was the first time Sandler played a normal guy, not a crazy >> I thought I actually thought I didn't like how he called everyone puppy. That was a little weird, but I thought Sandler was really good. I I liked seeing Sandler and Clooney together. Yeah. >> And cuz I thought Sandler actually played just a normal >> guy for once, even though the movie itself was not good. I give it 6.1. Have they ever Yeah, that's right. Have they ever worked together? >> Not that I could figure, but I I had this thing for you because Clooney is best when he just plays himself in a movie. He's obviously playing himself in this movie essentially. >> I thought he was great. Like I thought he did a really good job. It was just boring. >> Their performance was good. The movie itself. I thought it got worse as it went on. I'm trying to think of who's the I think Clooney might be the best actor who just plays himself. Like his best role is playing himself. So I thought like Ben Stiller plays himself a lot in movies. Seth Rogan plays himself. There are actors who are just they're better when they just play a version of themselves. Who is the best at that? Owen Wilson. Yes. >> Wait. So, so the reason why I brought this up, um I was just very bored. I think I watched it three time four times. I just kept falling asleep. Uh this was one of those movies and this happens to me sometimes where I watch a movie and I'm like it and I could go either way. Like if the first person told me, "Yeah, that was a good movie." Be like, "Yeah, it was pretty good." Or if you were like, "Dude, that stunk." I would be like, "Yeah, right. It did stink." Like I was >> Yeah, I actually I enjoyed it. I enjoyed I enjoyed watching it. I was entertained, but I didn't think it was a good movie. How's that? >> You weren't entertained. It was not entertaining. It was pretty boring. >> I I I liked spending time with Clooney and Sam and it was in Tuscany. So like that I So I was entertained. >> Yeah. Anyway, that's not going to the theater ever. >> No, that's that's a movie that will never be in the theater. I know. I think it played for two weeks maybe. But you're right. That's the kind of movie that will never be in the theater ever again. >> Nor and nor did it need to be. >> No. But in the in the 90s that there was a lot of star power in that there even like the people who played the side characters. Patrick Wilson was in it and Laura Durn was in it and >> uh Billy Croup. >> Yes. I love him. He should have been way bigger star. >> I had to Google like wait is that is that him? >> I actually thought that was the best part of the movie that whole conversation with him. I thought the first half movie was bad. Anyway, um yeah, it didn't feel like a Noah Bombck movie. I got one for you because you're always looking for great airplane flicks. Caught stealing is on Netflix. It's a movie with Austin Butler and Zoe Kravitz and Regina King. >> Was that good? >> And and honestly, so it's I I give it a 6.5. It's I feel it's a trashy action movie like, hey, there's a crime going on and this this guy gets pulled. It would have been like a Paul Walker movie in the 2010s or a Nicholas Cage movie in the '90s. >> I'm in. >> And then I watched it and it was it was entertaining and a little over the top. And then at the end of the movie it said directed by Darren Arnowski and I thought I what? Yes. >> I couldn't believe it. He's like an artsy, right? Black Swan. Isn't that him? >> Yeah. >> And I thought I I I underestimated I I did the Shack meme of I did not know your game. Austin Butler. I thought he was like a guy who takes himself way too seriously. Those are the I love when actors will do movies that they don't take themselves too seriously in. That was the best part about Nicholas Cage. And I feel like I I give Austin Butler credit for doing just a trashy action movie. >> Okay, I will definitely watch that. Finally, I you talked me into listening to unscripted and I think that's how I'm going to I'm going to consume all of my non-fiction reading now. I'm going to read fiction. I'm going to listen to non-fiction. >> Did you finish it? >> I'm threequarters of the way done. And I thought about it through the lens of succession. And I told you this is it's even crazier than the stories in succession. It's um I think people with that much money and that much power never say never. I don't think I'd ever want to be a billionaire with that much power. It does not sound like a good life to me. The everyone around them is just uh an enabler. The two women who were with him in his house were probably in the top 10 gold diggers of all time. >> Did you Did you Google each of these characters to see what they looked like? >> I'm waiting till I finish reading and then I'm going to >> Interesting. Okay. >> But I I really like the story of the guy who came in and he was kind of a lowife the Palmer guy or whatever pilgrim >> character. It's it probably should be a movie, but they won't because it's succession. And we obviously just missed that the first time when it came around. I just didn't follow the story of Summer Redstone. Um but um I think just money and power and how it can consume you and make you just a evil person is I would never want that. >> He was he was he was an evil person. The way that he treated his daughter and his family, >> just a despicable human being. Um so I'm glad that you enjoyed the book. I listened to I finished um Disney War, also by James B. Stewart, I think is his name. Phenomenal. Eisner and Oitz and Katzenberg and great stuff. >> Doesn't it just make you never want to have that much ambition in your life? I mean, we're ambitious people, but the amount of ambition those people have is it's like >> Well, it it's power. It's too much power because when you get when you get the mantle, everybody is is gunning for you and trying to stab you in the back. And um it's no way to live. Like I Yeah, I don't I don't want that. >> Right. So yes, good uh good wreck there. Anything else? >> Uh >> oh, did he dock? >> No thanks. Not for me. >> Okay. >> I did I did watch the Jeff Buckley doc on uh HBO because I was a child of the 90s and liked his music. And uh one thing about the 90s that I think is probably going to make a comeback is the video quality was just better back then. Like when you see a video recording of the 1990s, like a handheld camera or whatever, and it has that grainy quality, it just looks better on a documentary than like the HD stuff we have today. Doesn't that kind of make you nostalgic for that time period? Seeing the grainy quality like the stuff you'd see in America's funny some videos or something. The the date is in the bottom left corner. Something >> I don't know that I loved I don't know that I loved being 14 years old, but I like I like memories of that time, even if I didn't enjoy it at the time. See all this this is what being a human being is. We're looking for moments that we can have be nostalgic about. >> Mhm. >> All right. Thanks to the production crew as always, Duncan and team. Uh remember if you are listening to this, check it out on YouTube occasionally because all the charts and stuff are there and they do a great job making us look like idiots sometimes making us look funny. Um what else? Check out exhibit aforadvice.com for all your charting needs. If you're an adviser, email us animalspirits@compoundnews.com. Also, check out Talking Wealth. I think Josh is on this week. >> Oh, we got a banger. I'm I'm glad you I'm glad you plugged that. I almost forgot. Um the headline stat is something like 90% of RAS are shrinking net of the market. Compound Insights has a new research report out and Josh spoke with the author Mark Bruno and it is a banger. So check out Talking Wealth on YouTube or Spotify. >> See you next time. Heat. Heat.
Netflix vs. Paramount | Animal Spirits 442
Summary
On episode 442 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: huge losses in the Nasdaq 100, 2026 outlooks, …Transcript
Today's show is sponsored by Neos Investments. Markets remain unpredictable, rate expectations keep shifting, equity volatility persists, and questions around tariffs and the AI trade continue to drive uncertainty as investors consider portfolio positioning for 2026. Neos ETFs may offer a way to stay invested across equities, fixed income, and alternative asset classes while seeking outcomes like monthly income, enhanced tax efficiency, upside potential, or in some cases, a measure of downside protection. The award-winning firm behind the ETF.com best new active ETF and ETF Express best options strategies ETF issuer 1 to10 billion offers a suite of optionsbased ETFs that aim to harness volatility for monthly income, enhance after tax outcomes, and potentially complement core allocations. From equity and alternative high-income strategies to enhance fixed income strategies, NEOS aims to deliver next evolution option strategies for today's uncertain markets. Explore their award-winning lineup at neosfunds.com. That's neosfunds.com to learn more. This podcast is also brought to you by Exhibit A. All right, financial adviserss, listen up. Are you still using outdated, misbranded charts in your client decks? You know the ones your logos in the corner where the colors scream someone else's firm. Piecing together a Frankenstein deck from the blog screenshots and old PDFs isn't going to cut it in 2026. Your content needs to look uniform and professional. That's why we built exhibit A because we had old outdated charts too until Chart Kid Matt came along. Right. >> You're exactly right, Ben. Chart Kidm Matt has already done the analyst work for you. Just drop in your logo, your headsh shot, brand colors, and kaboom. You get instant access to over 140 of the industry's best charts. All updated daily with expert key talking points. Build your decks, quarterly reports, and marketing material. All branded, clean, compliancefriendly, and client ready. Plus, we drop a brand new chart of the week every Friday, so you've always got fresh, timely charts to share. It's like having a full research team behind you for 95% less of the cost. Book a demo with chartmat right now by scanning the QR code on the screen. And for advisers that are listening, head to exhibit aforadvice.com to learn more. >> Hey, listen. Every week I'm giving Matt ideas. Hey Matt, how about this chart for chart of the week? How about this one? And we're building them together. So that's like up to-date charts, too. You're not going to get that anywhere else. >> Matt GBT. >> That's right. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Let's get out of the way quickly here. Every week, people ask, "Ben, what are you wearing?" It's like I feel like I'm on the red carpet. This is a marine layer sweatshirt again. Okay, I'm just going to put it out there so I don't have to answer questions. All right, we spoke about Chardkid Matt a second ago. Uh he had a great chart on his blog. I told him, so he has got it's chartkidmat.com. I said, "Hey man, you need to do a chart of the day." I don't want to like give you too much homework. >> Chart of the day. >> Chart of the day. We we give him a ton of homework. I said, "All the charts that we ask you to do, just put it on your blog. You can do a chart of the day." He said that maybe that's too much. But so he's got this chart that shows us sector drivers in 20 in the 2020s. Okay. Sector contributions for the S&P 500. And no surprise, tech is a big huge weight. And of course, Comm is what? Meta, >> Google. >> What else? Google. Okay, so that's basically tech. So if you put those two together, tech and com services account for nearly 80% of the total return this decade in the 2020s. Not hugely surprising, but still a gigantic number. >> Yeah, massive. >> Yeah, >> massive. Massive. Um, all right. This was uh >> So wait, my sorry, my point here is this is the Bessbinder study, though. the the history of the stock market is a handful of winners drive the majority of the gains and that's what we're seeing in the 2020s. >> Uh for exhibit A's chart of the week, Matt compared the tech bubble peaking. Now, I took a little bit of umbrage with this chart. I said, "Hey, I don't get it. Why are you using June 2010 as the start date?" And his point was um if the market were to peak today, comparing that with the previous run-up to the tech bubble peak, that's where he got June 10th from. Um but whatever the the starting point aside, the point remains, >> obviously this looks nothing nothing like the runup to the peak from 98 to 2000 when the NASDAQ like at that point the NASDAQ we should probably have these numbers handy, but whatever. From 95 to 98, the NASDAQ 100 or the NASDAQ composite was up. How much was it up? 300% whatever it was. And then the final like year and a half to the runup, it doubled again. >> Yeah, it was like 500% that that whole five years. But here's the thing, those returns were more compressed. You could say these returns are way more spread out, but the magnit it's a it's just not as compressed. The magnitude is still pretty great when you look at it over a longer period of time. >> Yes. >> Um, so I had Matt create this chart with me. I gave him the data. He created the chart. That's kind of how it works here. And I had never looked at this before. I know the S&P 500 returns pretty good. Like I can I can that they're up here. The NASDAQ 100 I don't know as well. So I looked at all the NASDAQ 100 annual check. >> They're not they're not all up there. >> Yeah, they're pretty much there. >> I'm not I'm not going to quiz you right now, but come on. >> Give me a year in the last 20 years. All right. Uh that's my party favorite trick. So I looked at the NASDAQ 100 returns to show how random they are going back to 1995. And we ran these numbers and Matt and I looked at this and go, "Huh, this is really weird." So, first of all, the thing that stands out is, well, there's way more gains and losses out of the last 31 years, and this includes the dot bubble, obviously, popping. Uh, 26 out of the 31 are positive, including this year. But then we looked at the the negative returns and we go, "Holy cow, this is crazy." Literally, there's five down years since 1995. >> Every single down year is 30% or worse. >> Is that not ins like I I had no idea that was the case. >> This is a face blower and a melter as well, all both at the same time. Look how bad the doc bubble bust was. Down 36%, down 33%, down 37%. Imagine losing more than a third of the value every year for three years. >> Back to back to back. Yeah, that that's that's insane. I I guess I >> I got to be honest, I I would have stayed away for stocks for a decade at least. >> It is kind of crazy that tech people kept so optimistic. Obviously, there was a 10-year period. >> Who says they stayed optimistic? >> Well, I mean, they kept they they got back in somehow, but yes. So, 2022 was the last one. before that was 2008. So every single down year has been a loss of 30% or worse in the last 30 years which is just absolutely insane when you think about it. >> That is insane. And I >> So the S&P in this same time the S&P has had one down 30% year or more. And that was 2008. >> Good golly, Miss Molly. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this won't hold forever. Not every time the NASDAQ 100 falls will it will it fall by 30% or more. But this is a hell of a chart why I didn't know this. >> So the since 1995, the NASDAQ 100 has compounded at 15% per year. The S&P is 11%. Um, and the the this is inclusive obviously of two I guess if you call this a bubble, it's two bubbles and then one huge bursting which I think the NASDAQ fell 83% peaked the trough after the dot bubble. And so inclusive of an 80% crash, you still got 15% per year annually, which is just insane. Plus five different face rippers of of calendar returns and three back to back to back. Uh, >> wow. Anyway, just I I I just this is one of those, huh? I did not know that. >> All right. I don't know if 2025 was a particularly strange year. Um, but for me personally, >> every year in the 2020s has been strange. >> That's true. >> There is there to me is a precoid, postcoid. Everything in my life now I I almost look through that lens like it's almost impossible not to. >> 20 No, 100% watershed moment for civilization. 2020 today is is a bit of a blur. Yes, for sure. The the world just feels totally different after CO happened. >> Although anecdotated coming in, um the train station in my town is back to normal. I know office occupancy isn't. Subway turn styles aren't, but it feels like everybody's back to work. >> And what do you think it was at? >> No, it's not. It's not 5 days a week, of course. But I go in on Thursday, it's packed. The the parking lots are full again. But a couple years ago, it was what, 50% full? 75%. >> Yeah. Um, all right. Anyway, I say that because I was looking at I was revisiting my 2025 predictions, which I haven't looked at since I made them, and I honestly like I remember writing this, but if you asked me to name one of my 10 predictions, I don't think I could have done it. Like, I totally forgot what I wrote. >> Bitcoin's going to crash. There's going to be a correction. What did you say? I Oh, here they are. >> Well, no, they're right. Anyway, the these are all news to me. So, let's see how I did. You know what I did this year? I I did it in Gambling Gods, right? I like because I think a a couple years ago, I I said a few things that were like outlandish. Obviously, like it was a long shot. So, I wanted to make sure that I st I staked my claim, >> right? If you call them surprises, no one can call you out on them when they don't happen. I like I like the odds things here. >> Yeah. Okay. All right. So, private investment surge was number one. That was my my table pounder. Um, I probably should have brought data to this conversation, so forgive me, but I'm pretty sure I got this one right. Um, the the uh little hiccup a couple of weeks notwithstanding a couple of weeks ago. >> Yeah, someone someone might take umbrage with that because of the Blue Owl thing, but that doesn't mean the money stopped flowing in. >> That has nothing to do with any with my prediction. But so I I remember I listened to Blackstone uh last quarter as I always do and they did have record flows in the in the third quarter. So I feel like I I need data to to make sure that this is accurate, but I feel like green check here. I feel like with all things, the headlines versus the data will tell you two completely different things. >> Sure. All right. DJs aren't leaving. Um, they're not anything leaving. Yeah. Sure. The DJ Dow had a hell of a year. Actually, in in fact, this was a great year for degenerate stocks. >> Yes. >> Iran, Aqua, Riatoni, all the stocks. Absolutely. So, that was right. Uh, money stays in money market funds. 75% chance. Nailed it. Up to it's almost up to 8 trillion. >> I would tell you that this is a this is an easy pick, but you were on this way before anyone else. You were saying a few years ago. >> Yeah. Yeah. I Yeah, I I was I was early here. >> You were saying it before any was cool. Yes, I agree. That seems like an easy one now, but you did nail that one early. >> All right, so that So, all right, so here's the next one is a 71% chance. So, these these four I was very confident in. 70% chance are better. Mortgage rates remain high. The housing market stays frozen. Check. >> Nailed it >> for sure. Okay. Um, this was a Grand Rapids hedge if there ever was one. Equal weight outperforms cap weight. 52% chance. That's right down the middle. That's a coin toss. Uh that did not happen. Correct. Equal weight is lagging. >> No. Yeah, definitely. Market cap is beating. >> Okay. Um Nvidia to disappoint on an earnings release. Stock closes down 10% on the day. Half right. >> You should have said closes down 20% then. >> Half right. So it did fall 10% on a day, but that was during back in deepseat. Remember that? >> Oh yeah. >> But it did not disappoint on earnings. Um VIX. >> Wait. So S&P is up 18%, equal weight's up 11. >> All right, so big miss. Um, okay. Invid. Okay, I said that already. Vic spiked to 50. 41% chance. Nope. Vic, >> we didn't get to 50 during liberation day. What did we get to? >> Oh, uh, you know what? >> We might have. >> Did I Okay, you know what? Maybe maybe we did. So, I actually looked at this. A VIX spike to 50 does not happen that often. >> Um, you think it happens in the year? It doesn't. Uh, >> wait a like 40ish 37. >> No, no, no. We did. No, we did get there. Okay, check. We did get there. >> Intraday. All right. Yeah, I think that makes sense. >> All right. Micro strategy levered ETF blows up. Um, that was >> a couple weeks for that one to happen. >> No, no, no. That didn't happen. That was a 3% chance. What I meant was like literally go kabooy, like go haywire and fall 90% in the day. Now, the the Micro Strategy levered ETFs are down like 99% or what what I mean they're down a lot, but in in fairness and in spirit of what I was writing, I meant that literally like the swaps that they were using were going to go haywire and the whole thing was going to unravel in a day. That did not happen, >> right? >> Um the worst performance in 24 will be the best in 25. You know what? I apologize. I should have I should have looked at this before I put these in here. Um I do remember writing about Dollar General and Dollar Tree specifically, and that did happen. Um in fact, I I I know what I mentioned. I mentioned Dollar Dollar dollar trio general as some of the best and Mana as well. Um I I did buy both of these stocks. I cut my loss on Mona because I was a crap stock. That's >> I'm going to say that one's wrong. I'm going to be wrong on that one. >> Um >> that's that's a red X >> fine. But but specifically, I mentioned Dollar Tree and that stock is one of the best stocks of the year. >> Okay. >> Um Okay. All right. This was this was a high degree of difficulty here. I I really called my shot with this one. This was getting very cute. Momentum keeps going in the first half, but we have a double digit correction in the back half and and down on the year. Abs. I I gave myself a 1% chance. So, uh, absolutely wrong. And then >> correction was a first half story. >> It was. It really was. And then the obligatory something comes out of nowhere that makes at least half these predictions look very dumb. 90% chance of getting that one right. And I did. Liberation day came out of nowhere. So, those are my predictions. Not bad. Pretty good, actually. >> Five out of 10. >> We're on course to have an average up year. My average up year is 20 to 21% gain. We're right on track for that. Very business as usual. >> Yeah, like always. Uh, okay. So, this chart was making the rounds. This is from Joe Weisenthal. Uh, so Jim Reed via Joe Weisenthal. >> Wait, can I >> Joe Joe and Tracy are coming on TAP this week. >> Oh, nice. >> Yeah, >> we're crossing of worlds here, huh? >> Mhm. >> Uh, okay. Uh, showing how much OpenAI is expected to burn before turning a profits. Uh, and this shows Amazon and Spotify and Tesla and Uber as they're ramping up, right? And it shows obviously the OpenAI is burning way way more money before turning a profit. And obviously it seems to me like if OpenAI was a public company it would be down 40% right now >> at least >> right easily. This this seems to be the poster child. And I'm not sure it matters because they have Microsoft behind them and all these other companies. But like is isn't that the thing like if if this was a public company you think man this thing would getting smoked but I don't know. I don't know if it really matters because all these other comp they have to succeed for these other companies to succeed. >> Well, here's where here's where it matters. Um, if Open AI is is if OpenAI fails >> and like literally is not able to meet its financial obligations. That that is that's the eye of the storm. That's the epicenter. If we're in a bubble, that's the bubble. It's right there. It's a a trillion dollar market cap. um if they fail, we're we're in deep duty >> because then these companies will have to divert some of their cash flows to help them as opposed to continuing to invest, right? >> It's just all of the belief. If the belief goes, we're that's it. Kaput. By the way, did you you listen Oh, you told me. Yeah. You you listen to Michael Barry with Michael Lewis? I listen to him as well. >> Yes. >> He sounds um his voice and his manner of speaking did sound a bit like Sam Alman to me. And I'm not making the criminal connection at all. I'm just saying like I do genuinely believe I mean he said it twice on the podcast that he's on the spectrum. It's so wild the disconnect between social media personality. On social media you could be anyone. >> He's like I I think he's like sort of playing a super villain. I don't know if he if he views himself that way. I would imagine that he >> know sometimes it it's also the the picture you use on social media. His picture looks kind of mean and it's it's I look I look at it like this when I I'm a big okay guy on text. When I my wife will text me this long thing. and I'll say okay and she'll mean she she'll be she'll take offense to it. What do you mean okay? What just okay? That's all. And she takes offense. So I think that's the disconnect you have in your mind. Also this thing on social media. Plus the Christian Bale thing. You're right. When I view the Christian Bale character on the movie versus listening to him with Michael Lewis, that's two completely different people. >> They completely embellished him for the movie, which duh, it's a movie. Um he he is the guy though whenever his 13F comes out every major media outlet h like because he's the big short guy right and we know how this works but if he were to if he were to tweet in voice instead of in text like people would be like oh >> yeah it's not as scary. >> Yeah. >> I I agree. his voice isn't doesn't sound nearly as imposing as his like presence that you have built up in your mind from reading about him in a book and seeing him on a movie played by Christian Bale. >> And this is this is the thing with social media. You could be anyone who you you want to be. Everything is taken out of context. >> We always talk about this. We we've met a lot of people on social media that are like the biggest hugest doomers in the world and you meet them in real life and you go, "Oh, he's like a little puppy dog. He's not really like this. He's playing a character for social media." >> Yeah. Which by the way, that drives me nuts. drives me nuts. I can't it. To me, it's like uh >> which is the real person, >> right? >> Is social media the act or is the in person the act? And I don't know. In some cases, >> it's social it's like when you >> but if you're if you're a dick just at least be that way. >> I remember we we went to when I went to college, there was a guy who it was another I became friends with a with a group of guys and they said, "Hey, this that guy over there, he went to a high school and they said he wasn't like this in in high school. He's trying to change his personality for college, which hey, more power to you. But they're like, that's not really what he's like. He's doing this as a show for college. And that's what social media is. You try to become a different person between high school and college. >> Credit to me. I'm pretty sure when I was active on Twitter that my online personality was more or less in line with my real life personality. >> I try as well. I'm very sarcastic on Twitter and people on social media do not get sarcasm. >> Although you you are more you're not like that in real life. So maybe maybe you're part of the problem now that I think about it. >> I'm not sarcastic >> in real life. You're not a jerk in real life? No. >> Huh? Oh, I'm I'm not a jerk on social media. What are you talking about? >> But sarcasm is like a jerky quality. >> Oh, what? No. Sar not if it's in in justest >> on on social media. Sarcasm is jerky. >> Get out of here. That's just cuz people don't understand it. >> You think sarcasm is highbrow? You're talking over people's heads. I think sarcasm is funny. That's my favorite kind of humor. Could I be any more sarcastic? Chandler, right? That's a great character. >> All right. Anyway, back to this chart. Um, this is a projection. >> Yeah. To 2029. You're right. It's >> It's not like these are the losses to data and it's like, oh my god, like recalibrate everything. This is this is not going to be right. >> You could say, listen, this is way bigger than Amazon in '94 to 2002. That means open ad is going to be way bigger than Amazon, too, because they're taking way more losses. They're just they're just piling it up now so they can make more down the line. >> If this does come true, who's funding all these losses? >> All the big tech firms, right? Yeah, you're right. You're right. This this chart's never going to come true. No way. They the the ROI has to happen way before 2029. >> I just don't think that there's $140 billion worth of losses to be funded. At some point people be like, "Hey, you know what? Probably not a great use of capital, >> right?" Yes. Microsoft CEO is gonna say, "No, this is not what we're doing anymore. Sorry." >> Yeah. >> End of story. >> Okay. This next segment is brought to you by Fidelity. Ben, it is it's earning season. It's outlook season. Excuse me. >> Are you an outlook guy? >> You probably I like to I like to follow the outlooks. Um you're talking about your own outlook, right? Predictions. It it is it is funny because I think we all agree that there's a folly of making predictions and forecasts, but we I think everyone has to do it. Um it's entertaining, right? It's fun. >> I love it. All right. Anyway, go to fidelity.com um to learn more. Link in show notes for what we're talking about here. All right. So, they've got their outlook and they've got like six different like tiles. So, I clicked on this one. International stocks reignite. We've shared this chart before many times. I don't know why I just did this. like I'm like a the weather person. Uh global stock market PE ratios. US of course way above emerging and developed. But here's the thing, Ben. Did you know I think you probably did the degree to which international stocks are outperforming US stocks? I feel like this is way under reported. >> Granted, it's only one year, but it's like massive. >> And Aquexus US is up 30%. 30. and the US the Russell 3000 having been a great year up 17% that's a giant spread >> and the the giant leap the fall in the dollar already happened the dollar has more or less kind of stabilized right it fell 10% and then it kind of stabilized the rest of the year so it's not like this is just a continuation of the dollar falling international stocks have just continued to go up and there's there's been something of a rerating in not only the dollar but valuations have come up a little bit which is good investors are actually interested in these stocks again so I think that we're not talking about this nearly enough that hey in the midst of this huge AI bubble everyone's talking about. International stocks are crushing US stocks right now. >> All right, early peak at my predictions for 2026. This is going to be on the list. Not only are international stocks going to outperform again next year, but it is going to be the year where finally the media pays attention. Not fine. I mean, it's only been it's only been one year, but it's going to be it's going to be headline stuff because you know what reality is? You zoom out, who cares? It's a blip, right? Like if you look at the ratio chart, this is doesn't really register. Give it give it another year, it'll start to register. Do you also think the dollar will continue to fall or is this just a rerating of the stocks then? Is it a currency play or a stock play? >> Stay tuned. >> Okay. You have to do a like a 7A and 7B for that prediction. >> Uh all right. Fidelity's brokerage. They are I don't know if they're the largest 401k provider um record keeper whatever it is uh in the world. They probably are. >> I think they are. And then Vanguard probably next. >> Um 654,000 401k millionaires. That's 3.2% of balances. >> Now that sounds like a low >> that's lower than I would have thought. >> But think about it though. How many people have all of their money in a 401k? Plus people change jobs and so a 401k stays over here and maybe you don't roll it over. So the fact that there are even that many hundreds of thousands of 401k millionaires, I think that's impressive. Yeah, good point. I guess I just would have guessed it was higher. >> Okay, you're not impressed. All right, so this this >> No, no, no. I'm not that impressed. I'm surprised. I would have thought it was higher, but I think you make a valid point, too. >> Right. So 654,000 sounds like a lot. 3.2% doesn't sound like a lot. So this in this Wall Street Journal article, they also talk about um how there's this someone gives the phrase moderate millionaires and it says if you're worth1 to 5 million, you're a moderate millionaire, which sounds kind of degrading. Um but so UBS estimates that the number of such millionaires around the world has quadrupled since 2000 to 52 million this year. Um there were a thousand of these moderate millionaires added every single day in the US last year. >> Okay. So that's the number. Hold on. 52 million around the world. >> Yes. >> And a thousand million >> a day in the US. >> Okay. Wow. >> So So then they talked to the chief economist UBS and he says, "Popular culture still thinks of millionaires in terms of Scrooge McDuck or the top-headed icon of Monopoly. the new dollar millionaires have a broken psycho psychological wealth threshold, but their income and spending is that of a middle-ass household. Um, he said spending like a stereotypical millionaire probably requires at least $5 million, he said. So, this is another one of those things like, you think you're rich? Yeah, you're not rich. Um, but guess what? This is just the millionaire next door. This is nothing new. So, it says that like they have this psychological wealth threshold, but their income and spending doesn't match it. That's a good thing. How do you think these people became wealthy? because they have a middle class household spending an income. This is how they did it. It's like they're trying to reverse. You know, if they spent like a typical millionaire, they wouldn't be millionaires. Duh. That's the thing. This is millionaire next door stuff. Come on, people. >> Um, this morning I uh I showed Kobe a movie that you you might be shocked to learn that I saw this movie in the theater. No way. When you were six. Okay. >> What's that? >> When you were six. >> I was nine. >> Okay. >> About his age. All right. 1994. I I'm sure you saw this movie. >> Uh Blank Check. >> Ah, yes. >> So Blank, right? You saw that movie. Blank Check is I'm positive I saw that at somebody's birthday party. Blank Check uh is on Disney. Um James Reborn, the ultimate that guy. Yeah. >> Right. The dad. So he was the dad in blank check. He He was 45 in that movie. I guess maybe that looks about right. But he was he was your age in that movie, >> right? >> How? >> And he looked that way his whole life pretty much seems like. Right. >> So the story of that movie, this kid gets a blank check and he he has like he's like, "Oh no, it's my boss's money. It's Mr. Macintosh." Remember that? >> Cuz a car hits him or something. The guy just gives him a check. Does he write it for a million dollars? >> Great recall, Ben. Wow. Credit to you. >> I remember that. >> Um >> does he write it for a million dollars? I don't remember. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Okay. So his dad So he gets a blank check from his grandma. His dad asks, "How much did you get last year?" "10 bucks." And the kid goes, "Yeah, but what about inflation?" So he gives him $11. He plugs into his computer. This kid was very savvy. He plugs into his computer. I forgot what the interest rate was. How much would it How many years would it take to go from $11 to a million? It said like 340,000 years. Kobe lost it. He thought it was the funniest thing ever. Anyway, great movie for kids. It's on Disney. >> Did you ever receive the movie from the 80s, Brewster's Millions? >> No. >> Okay. It's a John Candy classic. So, it's it's um John Candy and Richard Prior and he has 30 days to spend $30 million, >> but he can't just give it away. And if he does gives away 30 million, he he inherits 300 million. >> It's a good one. And he he has a hard time spending that much money in the 80s. >> Today, I think that would be very easy. >> Um Okay. We didn't mention this last week, but Goldman Sachs bought in ETFs. We had our first talker book interview with Bruce Bond, I think, in 2018. >> Yeah. >> And we did it. We were in Chicago visiting our our office there and we we were in like the basement. >> Where were we? >> We were in the basement of a Weiwork building. >> Okay. >> Right. So, we interviewed Bruce Bond there and he told us the idea and the light bulb immediately went off for both of us and we go, "Oh my gosh, this is going to be huge." And we've been saying this all like we could just tell for adviserss and clients and retirees, this idea is going to be massive. And every time we talked to Bruce, we talked to him, I don't know, half dozen times over the years, maybe more. And every time we talked to him, the assets would get bigger and bigger and bigger. And last week, Goldman Sachs is going to buy them for $2 billion. Now, a lot of people looked at it said, "Geez, $2 billion." And they they managed 28 billion, right? That seems like a lot in terms of like a multiple. >> That's going to be hundred billion. >> But also a lot a lot of other people said also um Goldman Sachs can do the option flow, right? So they these are option strategies so they can make money there somehow too. But there's a lot of people in the industry who who don't like these kind of strategies and don't get them and they say they're suboptimal and if you did if you use this optimization positionation strategy you could do this and make the same return stream. And I think it just totally misses that's a total spreadsheet mindset that misses the psychological component of these strategies. And I think that's the thing you and I latched on to immediately. It's a psychological thing, not a number spreadsheet thing. And that's why this thing was such a success and garnered so much money. >> Um, and it's an interesting pairing, I think, for Goldman, but obviously they wanted to increase their ETF business. >> Um, anyway, shout out to Bruce and the whole team. Very happy for them. What a what an exit. It's awesome. >> He's a great Yeah, great guy, too. Uh, and his second huge exit cuz he was at PowerShares as well and they were bought out. Um, question was it I was a power pro. >> What did I say? >> Okay. One of the Ps um one of the things you and I have been talking about for years now is where does this money keep coming from? People, you know, putting more money into stocks and more money into money markets and Bitcoin and everything. Ryan Dietrich uh from Carson Group, also with the Fax and Fielding podcast, which is great. Uh he says disposable income and employee compensation continue to grow faster than inflation. And he looks at it over the past three, six, and one-year periods. And he's looking at disposable income and employee compensation. Then PCE inflation, which is the Fed's inflation rate that they look at. And >> No, no, Ben. Ben, Ben Ben, Ben Ben, you have to say their preferred gauge. >> Sorry. Preferred gauge. True. Um, and disposable income and compensation continues to grow at a pace that's faster than inflation. And this is the piece that we never talk about when people complain about inflation. It's also bringing up this, and I know because we know why this is people when people get a raise, they think it's them. when inflation happens they think it's the government. Uh but this people just have more I don't think people realize with inflation rising 25% this decade that also means pretty much a commensurate 25% increase in wages and salaries on a nominal right a nominal basis uh and I think it's actually been a little bit more that's where a lot of this money is coming from people have more money to spend now >> yeah you know what I think if you pull a 100 people with the benefit of hindsight I think most people would say you know what I'd rather like one and a % uh wage gains and 1.8% inflation. I'd rather lose to inflation and have normal price increases than this. >> I agree. >> People People would rather inflation be a invisible tax than this. >> It is >> because with this it feels like I I can't get ahead. I got a 25% raise and I'm still in the same spot. >> It is funny. People I'm Yeah, the people prefer the 2010s which was that situation. But it's funny, back then, remember all the policy wonks were going, we need to get inflation higher. This is too low. >> Well, yes, exactly. >> Uh, speaking of uh like where does the money keep coming from? We had Vlad on TAF. Did you listen to that? >> Yes. Yeah, he's I mean >> I they said they're going to rule the world, I guess. >> I really enjoyed spending time with him. Um, frankly, more than I thought. I I I I enjoyed his company. Um, >> did you really like his hair? Is that what that what it was? >> Did I really like his hair? Are you kidding me? It's got some nice hair. >> It's incredible. Uh in the third quarter, their net deposits was like I can't remember if it was 20 billion or 28 billion. It's where's all the money coming from? I guess this is I mean it's just wages, right? Where else could it be coming from? >> Right. And yeah, and obviously the the thing that they've done with the breaking down the barriers is you have the automatic deposits on, right? And that money just keeps coming and coming and coming and every time you get new customers, their money keeps coming and coming and it it's compounding on top of compounding. >> We spoke. Not only is the market up, but more money is coming in. On top of that, >> we spoke briefly about what it was like for him in the aftermath of the GameStop stuff. Like, I can't imagine how many death threats he got, right? People are like he was he he went from relatively unknown character to front page of every magazine, >> right? >> Like overnight um global villain. >> Like that must have been a wild personal experience. >> Yes. Sometimes people do separate the that there's people involved in these things too. Yes, it's >> all right. Um the labor market is not doing very well. Uh I think the stock market has probably overshadowed this. We'd be talking a lot more about the the the cooling economy if the stock market wasn't doing what it was doing. So Kevin Gordon tweeted last week, "O businesses with 20 to 49 employees shed 74,000 payrolls in November. That was the sixth decline out of the past seven months and the largest drop since October 2020. That's really bad. These are pretty small businesses. Uh, six declines in the last seven months. >> So, you said that the stock market doesn't seem to care yet. Consumers don't care yet either. So, this is from our friends at the transcript. They always have good stuff. I I feel like I'm I'm pulling a Michael Badnick here, but the they pulled stuff from the Mastercard CEO, the Visa CEO, and then Travel and Leisure Company. I don't know that one. TNL um and they talk about the difference between sentiment and actual behavior again. So this is what we keep coming back to. So the labor market is not impacting consumer behavior yet according to these CEOs. Um he says there's a divergence between the soft and hard data. We read all the headlines and some of the survey results around the consumer sentiment. It seems increaser and gloomy gloomy but what we see the hard data continues to be very supportive of consistent spend metrics through October and into the first two weeks of November. We've seen spending metrics across all our key drivers remain generally in line. And so we're encouraged by that. That's Mastercard. Same thing with with Visa, right? If I had to use one word, it would be stable. If I had two, it would be stable and strong. People continue to spend and then this travel and leisure person says, "One thread for us that's been super consistent has been the performance of our consumer. Our consumer has held up very nicely and looking forward to stepping into 2026. People keep spending money." So even if the labor market on the edges, because I think that's what it is. Labor market is slowing on the edges. It's not Listen, the the unemployment rate is still below 5%. Right? So, I know when people lose jobs, that's that's tough. It's hardship. If the unemployment rate goes from four and a half% right now to 5 and a half%, right? That's a lot. That's millions of people losing their jobs. There's still hundreds of millions of people are still working and spending. So, doesn't it seem like it could be a while before this market actually translates into a bad economy? It's going to have to get way worse, I think, before it really translates. That's my theory. >> Yeah, I think I think that's I think that's right. >> All right. Um I'm for a while at least remember I think there's you've pulled a Brett Favre a few times on the cape ratio and said like hey I'm returning from talking about the cape ratio ever again and then it comes back. I think I want to talk about this wealth and happiness thing one more time then put it to bed for a little while not forever obviously. >> Can you not compare me to Brett maybe use somebody else >> the comes comes to mind. Yeah it's true. Um so I thought that Chris Arn Chris how do how do you say his last name? Chris Arnade Chris Arnady I never um he has this uh Chris Arnati walks the world. So he's the guy who used to be a Wall Street trader and now he just he goes around the world and he travels and he walks and he talks to people and he basically says like I I want to kind of give my theory on this like why even if even if we're the wealthiest we've ever been in this country in the history of the world why are there so many people are still unhappy and why do we keep having these debates about what is wealth and are you rich or are they rich or why aren't rich people happier and um he says Americans are materially wealthy and unfulfilled. The primary problem is cultural. We've sacrificed community and meaning to emphasize an archetype built on acquiring as much stuff as possible. But then we have made that unnecessarily hard to do. And his whole thing is like >> if the you can have all the money in the world, but without meaning it doesn't matter. And there's there's no community and there's no >> we're a material society and it's it's all it's all hollow. >> So yeah, that's the that's the thing. That's why all the material you can say, hey, we have iPhones now and we have this and we have this and we have that and everyone have two cars and three car garages and that stuff doesn't bring happiness. And that's his whole point. if there's no meaning behind the money, it doesn't matter. And that I thought that's a good like stamp on this thing. And uh >> all right, let's >> also we've realized we're never changing anyone's mind on this stuff, right? You should feel wealthy or you shouldn't feel you're in this class, you're in that class. Literally, no one's changing their mind on that. That's never going to happen. Okay, let's move on. Okay, I've got a question for you on inflation. So, I I tweeted this out. We were at Target last week. Uh, we actually went to Target and made our kids because like I'm trying the hardest we can to not raise spoiled kids because they're talking about all the stuff they want for Christmas. And so I found my wife and they said, "All right, we're going to Target and we're picking out Toys for Tots stuff for other kids, right? You guys have to learn and you're not getting anything." >> Good for you. I love that. >> So we went to I got a big Toys for Tots box at my Planet Fitness that I go to and I dropped them all off. So I I said I tweeted this. I saw a 65 in TV at Target for $250 and I said, "It feels like someday Netflix is just going to give us all TVs and say, "Hey, here's a TV for you. It comes preloaded with Netflix. That's part of your subscription. So, phones are more expensive, computers are more expensive, automobiles are more expensive. Why do TVs keep getting so much cheaper? Every single year, TVs get better in quality and they go down in price. I do not get it. Why is it everything else is exp more expensive besides TVs? Please explain it to me. >> Okay. I would say the business model and the economics. That's like my knee-jerk reaction. Apple knows that you're going to replace the phone. like they just know you're going to the phone's going to slow down. Technology is going to get better and they can raise the price. I think the TV market is hyper competitive. People don't replace our TVs every day except for me and they need to compete on and so that's why prices are cheaper. >> I don't get and so I've my new theory for TVs is we have a really decently nice TV in like the main family room, right? We have one of those frame Samsung ones and then all the other T's we have cuz I love TVs all over the place is a really like I get the cheaper versions now cuz I know in three or four years I'm going to just replace it cuz there's going to be a nicer, faster, better picture and I just I don't understand. Someone's got to give me a explainer why they keep getting cheaper. Like there has to be a technological component to it. Like what's the inflation piece that this technology is getting cheaper? >> Do you think Do you think the cost to manufacture the iPhone keeps going up? I doubt it. I mean, may maybe it does. I don't know. >> I mean, there's more stuff. I just um someone who knows this stuff. >> Oh, how about this? You know what? The the technology of the iPhone is incredible. I know that they're spending gazillions of dollars in capex. So, I I take that back. I'm sure it is going up, but is it going up commensurate with the price increases? That part I doubt. >> I I think obviously phones are an amazing leap forward, but I think just TVs from what we grew up with, the tube TV, the box, remember the zenith brown stuff all around it? It was huge in the back. We had antennas. You'd put the phone the, you know, tin foil on them and hope the antenna would work for a channel. Uh I just think the leap forward we've had in TVs in my lifetime has just been one of the great >> remember our parents saying get away from the TV cuz you were you cuz you had to sit two feet in front of it otherwise you couldn't see. >> Like it was so blurry. I was like, "Wait, is that is that John Starks? I can't." >> Yeah. >> Hit the side of the TV. I just think the the I think this is just one of the great leaps forward we've had in our lifetime in HD quality and size and it's >> Can I can I give another I think I plugged this a couple of weeks ago. The Amazon what is it called? Is it like the Echo Show? I'm not even sure what it's called. Did I say this on the podcast? I can't remember. >> Oh yeah. Where it's got the screen and >> Okay. So it's like 15 inches. So in my in my We don't have a a TV in my kitchen area. Um but we've got like this 15-inch thing. You pick it up. You can move it. It It's a wire, but like the the the screen swivels. We It has all of the apps. It has Netflix, Disney Prime, whatever. Um it there's Amazon TV now, but there's like channels on there, which I I only saw briefly. I haven't really um looked into it, but my favorite part of this device is I synced it to my photo app to my photos on my phone. >> It runs through your phone. >> So, it gives us memories. And every day I walk past it and I see a picture from 2019 or when Kobe was born in 2017 or whatever. Like I love it. It's a So highly recommend. I don't I don't think it was that expensive, but great purchase. Phenomenal purchase. >> Nice to have a little TV in your kitchen, too. >> A material purchase that made me happier. >> All right. I I told you I'm on board. I I've completely changed my tune on this. I think material purchases can make you happier. >> When I wear a nice new sweater, it brings joy to my life. >> That is a very nice sweater. One other material purchase that I've been plugging that I feel bad about is the Tommy John's stuff, which by the way, life changer. And I've had a lot of emails, Michael, these are really expensive. Yeah, they are really expensive. Guess what? They're like what, 35, 40 bucks for an undershirt. I will wear these undershirts. How many times will I wear these before I throw them out? Let's be honest. 15, 20 at least. So, it'll be $2 a wear. My life is so much better with these undershirts, not sweating. However, I here's here's where I apologize. There's two versions. One of them is like a very skinny one that's like it like hugs your body. I feel >> I got that and it felt really uncomfortable. >> You got Did you return it or did you just wear it? >> I get I told I asked my wife if she wanted cuz it was like it was so tight. >> Yeah, it's very tight. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Not that one. >> Okay. The other one. >> Make Make sure you don't get that one. >> Okay. >> Okay. Here's a quote, Ben. Back to the transcript. Um All right. Here's a quote from the CEO of IBM. So, let's ground this in today's cost. This was on a podcast. I know which podcast. So, let's ground this in today's cost because anything in the future is speculative. It takes about $80 billion to fill up a 1 gawatt data center. That's today's number. If one company is going to commit 20 to 30 gawatt, that's $1.5 trillion of capex. to the point we just made, you've got to use it all in five years because at that point you've got to throw it away and refill it. Then if I look at the total commits in the world in this space in chasing AGI, it seems to be like 100 gawatt with these announcements. That's $8 trillion of capex. It's my view that there's no way you're going to get a return on that because $8 trillion of capex means you need roughly $800 billion of profits just to pay for the interest. These numbers are so bananas it's hard to wrap your head around. >> Okay, >> that doesn't make sense. >> The first the first ever computer that we had in our house was an IBM PC. Um BB gun to your head. What does IBM do? Because if you look at their chart, their stock chart, they're going crazy. They're up like 100% over the last two years. What does IBM even do anymore? I have no idea. Like I used to use IBM for a word processor. >> What do you mean what do they do? They're it's the main frames. >> I It's just impressive to me that this company is still around. They were >> enterprise enterprise software up in the cloud. >> Nifty50 back in the 70s. >> I could I couldn't explain to you what IBM does. >> Going bonkers, but yes. Okay. Yes. These numbers are insane. And I guess the whole point is that like I think just like the OpenAI stuff, all of these estimates, there's no way any of them are going to be true, right? There there something something has to give. It can't be there can't be that much spend on this stuff. It can't it won't happen. >> If you knew that there would be $8 trillion of capex, what would you do? >> Nothing. I don't know what what am I supposed to do? What would you do? >> Get gig along. I I guess >> before the and then get out when it before the top. Hello. >> Come on, Ben. >> Uh, all right. Here's a chart. Um, last week I I don't think I think we we skipped this last week by accident. Vanguard announced that they're allowing their customers to buy crypto. >> Did that really put a bottom into Bitcoin prices? >> I think it did. It seemed to coincide with >> No, it it No, it definitely did because the day before crypto had a really disgusting candle, like really ugly, and then that morning when this was announced, it was the bottom. So, yes, I I do think it put a bottom. >> Do you think Vanguard customers will buy Bitcoin ETFs? >> Um, no. Because I bet if you looked at the percentage of clients who buy it at different, you know, TRA and Fidelity and all these different places, Robin Hood, of course, it's going to be a tiny tiny percentage of Vanguard. >> I totally agree with you. So, I don't think that it matters. I think for sentiment it mattered. But will Vanguard investors buy a meaningful amount of Bitcoin at Vanguard's brokerage? No. If they really wanted to, they would have just done it already. They would have gone somewhere else. Yeah. It's not like it's hard to do it. >> Um, >> anyway, it wasn't just them. Bank of America also announced that they're going to be letting their advisers at Maryland buy it. Um, but flows have been pretty pretty ugly. Going back to January 20 24, this is the second worst taught us a chart showing this is the second worst uh 20-day flow for crypto. >> So, it's like a chicken in the egg thing. Did the flows cause the price to fall or did the flows fall because the price is falling? >> Both. >> There you go. Uh, yeah, good chart here, though. Let's talk about real estate. Um, I'd said earlier that like sometimes you have to separate the headlines from the data. So, the Wall Street Journal had this article, when home sellers set prices too high, they're paying for it. Says more than half of homes sold in 2025 through October had at least one price cut. You look at that and you go, geez, the housing market must be getting killed. And they looked at this and yeah, it's I think it's almost 60% of houses that But the average difference between the list price and the sale price is 3.7%. That's pretty tiny. Okay. That's not that much. >> No, it's not. No, it's not. Percentage wise, it's tiny, but like on a million dollars, it's not nothing. >> But it but it also says that so 57% of homes sold this year have had a price cut, but between 2020 and 2024, it was 47% of homes. So, don't you think almost all of these negotiations there is a price cut involved when someone comes in? >> I think that that's just how this selling process works. >> Um I I just think the Yeah, you're right. 3.7% on a big But if you look at this look at this chart here, share of active listing homes with a price reduction by month. It looks like we're just back to 2010 levels. It just was way way lower in 2021 and 2022 when you had all these bidding wars and it was 5% of them because people weren't going to lower prices cuz there the supply wasn't there. But now it's back up to 20 which looks to me like about what it was at the peaks in 2017 2018. So it's not that much different. >> Let me ask you this. What's your outlook on 2026 housing? Because we're we're going to get another rate cut tomorrow. I think I think that's the expectation. I think we muddle through again. It's like housing prices are up 2% and even if mortgage >> What about activity? Are we going to see a significant uptick in activity? >> I'd say it's more of a normalization. How about that? >> Is that a copout? >> I mean, it didn't answer my question. >> This year was a normalization type of year. >> I I asked if we're going to get a significant uptick in activity. You're saying >> I don't think I don't think activity is going to go bonkers, especially if the labor market continues to soften. I don't think that the housing market is gonna go crazy. How about you? >> I agree. Uh I own uh I own Rocket. I think I might sell it. >> Okay, here's one more from Logan Mosami. Just to put this one to bed again on the first-time home buyers. Remember N said, "Hey, the median age of first- time home buyers is now 40 years old." And people lost their minds. And if you compare this chart, it looks at all these other surveys and databases and those numbers have not increased barely at all. They're still around 31 32 years old. and the N is the only one that's going higher. So, this was a survey problem, not a housing market problem. So, the median first-time home buyer is still around the same age as they've been for the last 10, 11, 12 years. >> H >> survey of the week. We haven't done these in a while. Uh almost half, 46% of Americans say the cost of living in the US is the worst. >> That noise that you just made was like werewolves of London. >> What was that? >> Daniel should do a music over. >> Good song. uh say the cost of living in the US is the worst they can ever remember it being. Uh and they say the they're talking about whose problem whose responsibility is and they say it's Trump's responsibility or whatever. Um I think that this is obviously like Trump and Biden have done themselves no favor on inflation. Like Biden spent more money, Trump has put tariffs on. Like they didn't do anything. But I don't really think there's anything they could have done to lower inflation that much beyond putting the economy into recession. Like I think whoever is in office is going to get blamed for inflation. And I think people who say I'm going to come in and save us all from inflation. They there's no way they can ever deliver on their promises. >> Trump way beyond their control. >> I saw a great quote yesterday about inflation from Trump. Um >> I don't know. It's perfect. It was like the it's I don't know if he said it's beautiful. It's perfect. There's basically no inflation. It was so good. >> But politicians I know they have to say, "Hey, we're going to come in and fix prices." But they can't. They literally can't. There nothing they can do. Yeah, >> they can make it worse. They can't make it better. >> Uh, >> how's that? >> Yeah, >> unless they send us into recession, I don't think there's anything they can do to really make it better. >> Um, >> so people are always just going to be mad about it. >> Oh, yeah. If they send us into a recession, if if the liberation if the tariffs stayed on like the Liberation Day tariff announcements, that would have put us into a recession and prices would have come down. >> Yes. Yes. Exactly. Um, okay. One more thing before Netflix. All right. So, the Washington Post had this story about how baby boomers got so rich and why their kids are unlucky to catch up. And they say baby boomers have $85 trillion in assets. They're the richest gen generation by far. I keep seeing all these charts showing people over 70 have steadily increased their grip on wealth and it's like people who are 60 or 70 or over have more wealth than they've ever had in history. Um, by contrast, people in their 40s are losing ground comparatively on a relative basis relative to history. But this is just here's the thing. Millennials are going to be the richest generation someday because we we know baby boomers are not going to spend all of their wealth. We've seen this. We've had these conversations. Wealthy people are not going to spend all their money. They're going to pass it down. And guess what? Then millennials will be the richest generation. >> Dude, this is like Brewster's Millions. Is it Brewster's What's the name of the movie? >> Yeah. Brewster's Millions. >> Yeah. In real life. >> Yeah. So, that's what's going to happen. And the fact that there's so many more people over 70 that are richer because the baby boomers didn't have an offsetting generation. Millennials have the baby boomers. Baby boomers had no one as big as them then. So like there wasn't a huge generation that could live so long and be so wealthy. So this is just a compounding thing. This is not like a crisis. >> That money is going to be passed down. >> It's not I I absolutely think young people are going to be just as rich or richer than their parents. >> Yeah. All right. Um big news last week. This week Netflix uh has an offer accepted from Warner Brothers to buy the stock for $72 billion in equity. It's another $10 billion in debt. Um, I can't believe it. I mean, I guess I can believe it, but like my my initial reaction was, "Oh my god." I really thought that Paramount was going to take it. I think everybody did. Poly Market reflected that. Um, so I don't want to take for granted that everybody knows what Warner Brothers does. I mean, everybody knows it's a big studio, but these are the directors that they've worked with like exclusively for the most part. So Clint Eastwood's entire career only did movies with with Warner Brothers. Stanley Kubri, um Todd Phillips, the Wowskis, Nolan, Minus Oppenheimer. These are these are some >> I say like Todd Phillips has some good stuff. I think it's funny you put Todd Phillips in this group. >> Well, >> um that's kind of like Big Berg sitting at the >> chatbt gave me Todd Phillips. >> Okay. >> Uh well, no, he cuz Joker was another huge one. Like he deserves to be there. >> No, hangover. >> Hangover, >> dude. Those were anyway. Um, Harry Potter, uh, Barbie, Dark Knight, Lord of the Rings, Matrix, Casablanca, The Exorcist, Superman, All the President's Men, Batman, The Shining, Twist of the Fugitive, Dune. Um, it, uh, which, by the way, there's a new show, Welcome to some something. I watched the first episode. Haven't heard anything about it. I saw this morning on Twitter like it's the finale. I have literally not seen anybody talk about it. All right. There's obviously the the studio um, I'm sorry, the streamer, HBO Max. >> You and I walked by the studio when we were in California earlier this week. >> That was so sick. So sick walking by the uh the water tower. They are so the deal does not include the networks. So no CNN, TNT. That's going to be >> discovery all that stuff. So the big freakout from people was oh my gosh this is going to be the end of movies, right? And so Lucas Shaw said Netflix reiterates it will release Warner Brothers movies in theaters. It'll produce their shows. Um it sounds like they still don't know what HBO and I I give the Ron Burger. I don't believe you. Um I think let's say this Huh. What don't you believe? >> That they're going to keep releasing these movies and they're they're going to play out their contracts that they have now if they acquire them, but then all those movies are going straight to Netflix from there on. Like >> no, >> I see I think you have like you as a movie theater person, I think this is the beginning of the end for movie theater. Like this I think like there's still going to be there, but the writing's on the wall, man. These things are going to be going straight to streamers for the most part. There's going to be it's going to be really huge blockbusters at the theater and not as like these are going straight to Netflix, man. This is going to happen. This this is the future we're living in. >> I don't I don't think this is the beginning of the end. Um >> I I definitely do. >> No, I think it's maybe the end of the beginning. Like this was already emotion. It's not like it's not like I don't think that you're going to see in the in the data. And I'm going to save this data because Josh and I are having a a Hollywood guy on uh TEF next week. I had I had Matt crank out some incredible charts that I'm very excited to talk through. Movie theater has been in secular decline obviously. So I don't think that there's going to be in 10 years now a I don't think you're going to be able to look at the before and after. I don't think it's going to change the data. I think it's already it already happened. So what what what Sarandos and Peter said because they did a they did a call on Friday um after the announcement. What they're going to do at least what they say they're going to do. Now, they've said a lot of things that they then changed their mind on is that they want to shorten the e exclusivity. So, if a if a movie was going to be in the theaters for 45 days, they want to shorten that window, which in effect is going to continue to maybe be the final nail in the coffin for movie theaters. to your point because if a movie only has a two week release like Doom 3 for example obviously I'm going to see that in IMAX but for most people if it's only going to be in the theater for two weeks they're just going to wait. >> Yes. >> So I think that this is this is bad for movie theaters. Um but this is better for Hollywood than Paramount buying it. At least this is what like Bellamy and the smart people are saying because Paramount already has a movie studio. So there would be a lot of cost cutting because there would be a lot of overlap between the two studios. Netflix obviously does not have a movie studio. So it's not like they're going to buy Warner and just gut the place because they need these people to produce a movie. >> So my my biggest worry about your biggest worry should be movie theaters. My biggest worry is HBO. Like I'm worried about how HBO is going to be handled here because I feel like that's like the the best to me that's the top echelon of shows. >> It is that's the crown jewel. >> So that's my worry here. I if I'm having to choose between Netflix and Paramount, like Paramount Plus is kind of garbage as a streamer. Like the just the interf like I would much rather have Netflix take this over and make it better because honestly HBO Max too is so glitchy. Like if they put it on Netflix, I just I hope they keep the HBO people. The thing is you mentioned like all the directors and movies that have been made. Um the thing is people aren't tied to these studios forever now. like they'll just if if they're not treated well because we this this studio this company bought Warner Brothers and they're not doing it as well, they're going to go somewhere else. Like the people are the thing that matter. Yeah. >> Obviously at Netflix wants the IP and the library and all that stuff. So you would rather have Netflix take it over. It sounds like >> I don't I don't know. I I think for for labor Netflix is way better. For theaters it's it's way worse. >> I think for consumers this is a it's a better idea if Netflix gets it. That's my >> Paramount came over the top with a hostile bid. They offered more. Who knows where this is going to shake out. Kushner is is involved with the Ellison's now. So, it's not like it's the deal is far from done. >> I I just I don't know much about David Ellison, but I think that he should probably step back because Larry Ellison needs to save his money because Michigan needs some new wide receivers and new DBs. He's got to save his money for Michigan's NIL program. Stop getting into this bidding war. Let Netflix have it. That's my That's my theory. >> Uh he's they're not going to let Netflix have it. So, what does this do for So wait, does Netflix come back on and try to go over top and try to just keep running the price up then? >> I don't think so. So the question is like why did Netflix do this? Because they they already won and I what people are saying is they're just competing with YouTube. They just they just need it's a land grab. It's Netflix versus YouTube. That's it. >> That's what Ben Thompson at Stetery said. He s like Netflix is worried about YouTube. That's like their biggest competitor. Now there's this chart in the Wall Street Journal that shows share of US TV viewing time by distributor. YouTube's going up into the right. Netflix has sort of flattened out. Warner Brothers and Discovery have fallen. This makes a lot of sense to me that Netflix is it's almost it's because it seems like a little bit of a desperate move on their part. Why would they need to do this? >> It doesn't make sense to me if I'm like, listen, they're they're great executives and they obviously know more about their business and the industry than I do. It it does of desperation a little bit. Um there's >> they can pull us off. They But here's the thing. They have 300 million subscribers. Max has 130. There's obviously a lot. They said this on the call. I don't know what the overlap is. I'm going to guess 75%. Right. They're not huge. >> They're not adding a lot of new subscribers. And the their streamer, it's not like it's not that profitable. Most of most of Warner Brothers Discovery's profits from are from the the the legacy cable channels. Now, they're obviously in secular decline, but I don't I don't see the the the the cost synergies, the profits. Like, they say that there's going to be $2 to3 billion of cost savings that's going to flow through. I don't think that this is economically a good deal for them. Um, >> here's the thing. In our lifetimes, there's never been an entertainment merger like this that has worked every single time. None of these big acquisitions or mergers and entertainment like this have ever worked. >> But, but but this is so different. Yes, that's true. And also there has never been this sort of content plus distribution strategy. Those are two separate businesses. There was never a Netflix type of thing. >> I would the thing is I would have way more confidence that Netflix could pull this off. And still I would be a little hesitant that like again we've never seen this work out very good for these companies to do this. HBO has been passed around to so many different companies at this point. That's that's my biggest concern. >> Don't ruin White Lotus for us. Okay. Keep that stuff going. But I think I think the bidding war is going to be entertaining though. Yeah. And Poly Market has it pretty much dead even. They have Paramount at 43%, Netflix at 38%. >> I think Paramount steals it if I had to guess on on the outcome. And in fact, I wonder if Netflix is counting on that. >> Could be that they do. You think they'd really go through this whole thing just to drive up the price? >> Well, no, because the the breakup fee is $5.8 billion. So, if Netflix No, that that's stupid. if Netflix doesn't get the deal um because it either falls through for regulatory purposes. So if if if Paramount steals it, then I believe Warner has to pay Netflix a $2 point something billion dollar breakup fee. But if the deal doesn't go through, well maybe that is a strategy. I have no idea. >> So the question is what matters more to the decision-making? Is it the CEO who seems like he wants to get in bed with Netflix or is it the shareholders who've now been offered a much better deal? >> Yeah. Now Paramount needs Warner. Like if Paramount if Netflix gets Warner Brothers for real and Paramount is just Paramount, they're dead. >> Well, then Paramount will just buy Peacock, right? >> There needs to be consolidation. That's what we know. >> I don't know if Peacock is for sale. >> Well, it's going to be like it's if it's Netflix and Warner Brothers and then Disney Hulu and then it's got to be Paralon Peacock. Like, there needs to be consolidation just for me because so I don't have many passwords. That's all I'm asking for. >> Anyway, this is obviously the the most fascinating story. Uh >> it really is. It's very >> great stuff. A I mean a company like Netflix who's never done a big acquisition like this just freaking all in. >> Were you Were you shocked? Like I I I I I couldn't believe it. >> Yeah. I I Yes. I didn't I did not expect that. It does wreak of desperation, but it's also like, well, maybe they're going on the offensive. So, I could see it both ways. I just think >> so. They're they're like, this is just this is game over. It's like the disruptor bought Hollywood. I mean, Warner Brothers is Hollywood. I just think it'll be a blessing in disguise if Netflix doesn't get this because these deals barely ever work out. That would be my That would be my baseline. >> If I knew, how about this? If I knew that Paramount was not going to If I knew that Paramount was going to steal Netflix, I would buy the stock Handover Fist today. >> You would buy what? >> Buy Netflix. Okay. >> And it's been falling a lot, too, right? >> Yeah. If I knew the deal wasn't going to go through, I would buy Netflix. I'd back up the truck. >> All right. Um, I'm looking for a positive spin on Gen Z being so unhappy. And I hope that will mean we get better creativity from them. So, there was two things I saw this week that people just love nostalgia, but they don't really know what was going on at the time. So, I think people I've been saying this for a while, people are going to be nostalgic for the 2020s in like 10 years. So, there's a story in the New York Times saying, >> I won't let that happen. I'm going to be I'm going to be the the nostalgic grunch. >> Listen, so is Gen X actually the greatest generation? And they say how one era changed everything about the culture and why we're so nostalgic for it. creators and they talk about the everything that came out of the '9s and how great it was and there was Kurt Cobain and there was Reality Bites and all this stuff and they went through all this list of stuff that Gen X created and it's a it's a great list, right? Um and then I saw this tweet going around saying apparently there is a Gen Z Tik Tok trend where they were romanticizing being a millennial in 2012 and it's saying like I want to be in Brooklyn in 2012 cuz millennials were so happy and optimistic. I'm here to tell you millennials were not optimistic about anything in 2012. >> We couldn't get jobs. What? No, this is this is a totally rewriting of history. >> But the thing is like they talk about how one of the reasons that Gen X produced so much great content is because they're all unhappy. >> Like even in the '90s, people think about the stuff that came out in 1999 at the height of the do bubble uh Fight Club and and American Beauty and all these movies. It was in that movie book that we read, >> The Matrix. >> Yes. All this stuff. People were so unhappy and they're saying that's what led to them being so creative and making good stuff. So Gen Z, I get it. You guys are all sad and depressed and you hate your lives and everything is bad. Make some good art for us then. That's going to be the positive. >> They can't. There's AI. >> Make good stuff. Jen. Okay. Uh, one thing from last week. I said my heater broke and we couldn't come up with the word and a million people said, "Hey, it's a furnace, idiots." Uh, we couldn't come up with the word furnace. >> Okay, >> fair enough. That's a middle-aged thing for me, though. Um, >> I I can't come up with any words. >> Having a word at the tip of my tongue and not be able to come up with it. All right, let's do recommendations. You got anything? I do. Um I don't know if I don't know if I have like uh you you're not a Wayne's World guy. >> Why? I rewatched it again last year actually. >> Okay. I don't know if I have mono. There's a line where Wayne goes, "I thought I I thought I had mono for a month. Turns out I was just really bored. I I'm so tired all the time, especially when I get into bed. I can't I cannot watch anything in bed." Now, maybe maybe it's because Jay Kelly is just really boring, but I'm a I'm actually a no boundback guy. That might surprise you about me about you. Surprise you. >> Squid and the Whale you liked? Well, you're a family. You're a child of divorce. You had to watch You had to like Squid and the Whale. >> Love Squid and the Whale. And I liked uh Marriage Game. Marriage story. Marriage story. >> Oh, I didn't I didn't care for that one. >> Okay. Um Jay Kelly, what did you think? I did. Did you like it? >> I was going to get on here. I was going to get on here and tell you don't watch it. Here's the funny thing. It was not a good movie. Like it was it was surprising that it was a Noah Bombbeck movie because it was like it's kind of cheesy. It's very sentimental, but I enjoyed hanging out with Clooney and Sandler. I thought those two I thought that was one of the it was the first time Sandler played a normal guy, not a crazy >> I thought I actually thought I didn't like how he called everyone puppy. That was a little weird, but I thought Sandler was really good. I I liked seeing Sandler and Clooney together. Yeah. >> And cuz I thought Sandler actually played just a normal >> guy for once, even though the movie itself was not good. I give it 6.1. Have they ever Yeah, that's right. Have they ever worked together? >> Not that I could figure, but I I had this thing for you because Clooney is best when he just plays himself in a movie. He's obviously playing himself in this movie essentially. >> I thought he was great. Like I thought he did a really good job. It was just boring. >> Their performance was good. The movie itself. I thought it got worse as it went on. I'm trying to think of who's the I think Clooney might be the best actor who just plays himself. Like his best role is playing himself. So I thought like Ben Stiller plays himself a lot in movies. Seth Rogan plays himself. There are actors who are just they're better when they just play a version of themselves. Who is the best at that? Owen Wilson. Yes. >> Wait. So, so the reason why I brought this up, um I was just very bored. I think I watched it three time four times. I just kept falling asleep. Uh this was one of those movies and this happens to me sometimes where I watch a movie and I'm like it and I could go either way. Like if the first person told me, "Yeah, that was a good movie." Be like, "Yeah, it was pretty good." Or if you were like, "Dude, that stunk." I would be like, "Yeah, right. It did stink." Like I was >> Yeah, I actually I enjoyed it. I enjoyed I enjoyed watching it. I was entertained, but I didn't think it was a good movie. How's that? >> You weren't entertained. It was not entertaining. It was pretty boring. >> I I I liked spending time with Clooney and Sam and it was in Tuscany. So like that I So I was entertained. >> Yeah. Anyway, that's not going to the theater ever. >> No, that's that's a movie that will never be in the theater. I know. I think it played for two weeks maybe. But you're right. That's the kind of movie that will never be in the theater ever again. >> Nor and nor did it need to be. >> No. But in the in the 90s that there was a lot of star power in that there even like the people who played the side characters. Patrick Wilson was in it and Laura Durn was in it and >> uh Billy Croup. >> Yes. I love him. He should have been way bigger star. >> I had to Google like wait is that is that him? >> I actually thought that was the best part of the movie that whole conversation with him. I thought the first half movie was bad. Anyway, um yeah, it didn't feel like a Noah Bombck movie. I got one for you because you're always looking for great airplane flicks. Caught stealing is on Netflix. It's a movie with Austin Butler and Zoe Kravitz and Regina King. >> Was that good? >> And and honestly, so it's I I give it a 6.5. It's I feel it's a trashy action movie like, hey, there's a crime going on and this this guy gets pulled. It would have been like a Paul Walker movie in the 2010s or a Nicholas Cage movie in the '90s. >> I'm in. >> And then I watched it and it was it was entertaining and a little over the top. And then at the end of the movie it said directed by Darren Arnowski and I thought I what? Yes. >> I couldn't believe it. He's like an artsy, right? Black Swan. Isn't that him? >> Yeah. >> And I thought I I I underestimated I I did the Shack meme of I did not know your game. Austin Butler. I thought he was like a guy who takes himself way too seriously. Those are the I love when actors will do movies that they don't take themselves too seriously in. That was the best part about Nicholas Cage. And I feel like I I give Austin Butler credit for doing just a trashy action movie. >> Okay, I will definitely watch that. Finally, I you talked me into listening to unscripted and I think that's how I'm going to I'm going to consume all of my non-fiction reading now. I'm going to read fiction. I'm going to listen to non-fiction. >> Did you finish it? >> I'm threequarters of the way done. And I thought about it through the lens of succession. And I told you this is it's even crazier than the stories in succession. It's um I think people with that much money and that much power never say never. I don't think I'd ever want to be a billionaire with that much power. It does not sound like a good life to me. The everyone around them is just uh an enabler. The two women who were with him in his house were probably in the top 10 gold diggers of all time. >> Did you Did you Google each of these characters to see what they looked like? >> I'm waiting till I finish reading and then I'm going to >> Interesting. Okay. >> But I I really like the story of the guy who came in and he was kind of a lowife the Palmer guy or whatever pilgrim >> character. It's it probably should be a movie, but they won't because it's succession. And we obviously just missed that the first time when it came around. I just didn't follow the story of Summer Redstone. Um but um I think just money and power and how it can consume you and make you just a evil person is I would never want that. >> He was he was he was an evil person. The way that he treated his daughter and his family, >> just a despicable human being. Um so I'm glad that you enjoyed the book. I listened to I finished um Disney War, also by James B. Stewart, I think is his name. Phenomenal. Eisner and Oitz and Katzenberg and great stuff. >> Doesn't it just make you never want to have that much ambition in your life? I mean, we're ambitious people, but the amount of ambition those people have is it's like >> Well, it it's power. It's too much power because when you get when you get the mantle, everybody is is gunning for you and trying to stab you in the back. And um it's no way to live. Like I Yeah, I don't I don't want that. >> Right. So yes, good uh good wreck there. Anything else? >> Uh >> oh, did he dock? >> No thanks. Not for me. >> Okay. >> I did I did watch the Jeff Buckley doc on uh HBO because I was a child of the 90s and liked his music. And uh one thing about the 90s that I think is probably going to make a comeback is the video quality was just better back then. Like when you see a video recording of the 1990s, like a handheld camera or whatever, and it has that grainy quality, it just looks better on a documentary than like the HD stuff we have today. Doesn't that kind of make you nostalgic for that time period? Seeing the grainy quality like the stuff you'd see in America's funny some videos or something. The the date is in the bottom left corner. Something >> I don't know that I loved I don't know that I loved being 14 years old, but I like I like memories of that time, even if I didn't enjoy it at the time. See all this this is what being a human being is. We're looking for moments that we can have be nostalgic about. >> Mhm. >> All right. Thanks to the production crew as always, Duncan and team. Uh remember if you are listening to this, check it out on YouTube occasionally because all the charts and stuff are there and they do a great job making us look like idiots sometimes making us look funny. Um what else? Check out exhibit aforadvice.com for all your charting needs. If you're an adviser, email us animalspirits@compoundnews.com. Also, check out Talking Wealth. I think Josh is on this week. >> Oh, we got a banger. I'm I'm glad you I'm glad you plugged that. I almost forgot. Um the headline stat is something like 90% of RAS are shrinking net of the market. Compound Insights has a new research report out and Josh spoke with the author Mark Bruno and it is a banger. So check out Talking Wealth on YouTube or Spotify. >> See you next time. Heat. Heat.