New Years Day Special on Gold and Silver | Michael Oliver and Jimmy Connor
Summary
Precious Metals: The guest is emphatically bullish on silver and gold, citing a structural breakout in the silver-gold ratio and momentum-driven acceleration in silver’s advance.
Silver Outlook: Silver is viewed as entering a new price reality with potential to reach $200 near term, driven by monetary demand and industrial uses across solar and AI-related technologies.
Gold Trajectory: Gold could extend toward and beyond an 8x move from prior cycle lows, supported by central bank buying, monetary debasement, and breakouts versus the S&P 500.
Commodities Upswing: The Bloomberg Commodity Index has broken out, with base metals like copper and platinum strengthening; the guest expects a multi-year second leg higher in commodities.
Oil Setup: Oil is a laggard but technically primed for a sharp upside move, potentially jumping $10–$20 quickly and reigniting inflation pressures.
Market Risks: Rising M2, a weak dollar, and fragile long-duration Treasuries could trigger policy panic and asset rotation into monetary metals and commodities.
Tech/A.I. Leadership Fading: AI leaders such as NVDA, MSFT, and ORCL are weakening on a relative basis, echoing dot-com-era rotations and signaling broader equity risk.
Actionable Positioning: The guest advocates exposure to precious metals, oil sector equities, and base metal miners, and buying silver pullbacks; mainstream shifts like MS’s 20% gold allocation reinforce this view.
Transcript
Michael, thank you very much for joining us today on our New Year's Day special. Happy New Year's. >> Great to be back, James. >> So, so much has happened since the last time we spoke, which was September the 22nd. But I'm sure you would agree with me, 2025 was a remarkable year. The S&P was up 16, the Nasdaq was up 20, gold up 60, silver up 140. So, uh, you met a lot of your targets and I want to get into it, but when you reflect back on 2025, what surprised you the most, if anything? >> Really not much. uh except the continued which is no longer the case the continued layered approach to silver by most investors where they they doubtful every time there's a surge that is impressive even though it was in the old range the old 50-year antique range that it had been in even those surges they doubted oh it's overdone you know RSI says this that and so they doubted all along the way and the guy who did the best wasn't the guy who doubted and flinched at every downturn, but the guy who said, "Every time I get a 10 or 15% drop in silver, I'm buying more." Okay. He's the guy who did far better than the guy who was cautious, quote unquote. Okay. >> Yeah. Well, I fall into that latter category. I've been very cautious with silver and I've been a doubter. I'm not going to lie to you, Michael, but I've been very bullish on gold. Still am. So, why don't we get into it? And I just want to remind our viewers, the last time we spoke was September the 22nd. Like I said, so much has happened since then. And I I just want to go through the numbers. Okay, September the 22nd, gold was at 3,700 and silver was at 42. And here we are in Jan 1. Gold is at 4,300, give or take. Silver is at 70, was at 80, but uh so gold's up 60% on the year, silver's up 140% on the year. So, let's get into it. What is your take for 2026? And are you concerned at all with these moves that we've seen? >> Concerned in the sense that we might get a pullback. >> They I think you had the pullback. Okay. Silver is in an acceleration mode. It's not in a normal uptrend mode. So if one applies the normal technical metrics that say overbought for example, ignore them. We're not in a normal market. A normal market meaning a normal bull market, you know, that goes up in layers or a trading range market that gets successes both ways. Silver is in a seeking a new reality market is what the phrase we use. It's going into a new reality and it's going to do it suddenly. Meaning by our metrics, not judging the silver by its own dynamics, but the silver versus gold situation, which a lot of people plot the other way. You know, the the rate uh ratio, we we divide silver into gold and express the answer is a percent. And back early this year, it was down to 1% silver ounce versus an ounce of gold, which if you go back 50 years, you see times when it's that low, you buy it because it's it's too low in relation to gold. In the 1979 to 80 move, which everybody remembers, that's when silver went actually from it had been in a low around three or four bucks and went to 50 over a couple years. A lot of that compressed in the last couple quarters. In fact, a four-fold increase in the final four two quarters of that move. And in 2001 through 2011, there was another bull market, but a lot of it was compressed in a couple quarters in September of 2010 through April 2011 where several several doubled in a half in five months. Okay. But those were within that old range of reality. You know, the half a century of this. Okay, you've got some charts if you want to show them. But there there have been other markets that over history, rare events admittedly, but have been stuck in [clears throat] price ranges. Copper's one, lead's another. We've shown to our subscribers back in u this is just a good historical example. Copper was stuck in a range like silver between the 1970s, 80s, 90s, 2000 and 2005. The top of that range was about a buck 50. Okay? And it suddenly decided for whatever reason unique to itself because it did it on its own. It was not coincident with gold. It was not coincident with other base metals. copper quadrupled in a couple quarters and then subsequent to that, yeah, it overshot, you know, no it's no new normality, but it it moved out of the old multi-deade range and did it like bam, [clears throat] not in an incremental layered manner. Lead did the same thing in 2007. It had been in like a 40-year range and it said, "Oh, okay. I shouldn't have been here that long. on price too low relative to let's say degradation of the money unit. So it did the same thing. It quadrupled in a couple quarters in 2007 and then subsequently lived in a new price reality that was roughly four times the price level of that average old price reality. Okay. Well, silver's been in that reality for 50 years. Why didn't silver coincident with copper in 2007 or 2005 or lead in 2007 or gold in its repeated eightfold bull markets goes well past the old high and yet silver stays in the box. What's going on there? you know well there's arguments that you know it's been artificially retain restrained and so forth but forgetting that when a market decides to say hey you know I made a mistake it quite often will compensate for the mistake by repricing itself rapidly this is true with like bull market bubble tops like in the stock market sometimes it crashes okay it compensates for it overdoes it well silver saying hey I'm out of here and the momentum already said that back In June, we said, "Okay, when silver was coming up toward that mid $30 level, it been 35 and 35 in 2024 and 2025 early." And silver could drop down under 30 again and it's coming back up in June of this year and it was in the mid30s and we said, "Uhoh, this time it's different. You're going to accelerate." That was a momentum based assessment, not just that price looked good. And sure enough, it zoomed past 35 and got up, you know, up toward the old range highs, the $50 stuff. Uh, and now we've since blown that out. But it's it's mode of advancement has accelerated like you noted the year to date. You know, few people are cheering that they're they're screaming at every downturn. The difference this time is the silver gold ratio just broke out of a massive technical basing range. Of course, silver had been caught in a box since the early like 2022, 2023, 2024. It kept coming back back up to like 1.2 something% of gold and go back down. So, you could see it on a spread chart which we've we've also sent to you. And when it broke out, that was the November close. And silver then was what? 44. You said something like that. Yeah. Where we last talked. Okay. Well, look what happened since the month of December. You went Well, I think the actually I think the November price close was in the mid-50s. So, we gained, you know, 10 20 30% in a matter of four weeks. What caused that? The spread broke out. And when you go back and look at that 79 explosion to 1980 where you quadrupled in 67 months or the 2010 to 111 explosion already in a bull market but it exploded those lasted a couple quarters. We just broke out into November. So this clock is very young and people aren't understanding that something different is going on. >> So you raised a couple of good points here. First of all, um, you talk about the money supply and we got to talk about this. What the governments have done in the US and Canada and throughout the Western world is just crazy in terms of money printing. And I just want to quantify this. In 2020, January of 2020, before all the craziness started, the money supply as measured by M2 was 15 trillion. Now it's 22.4 trillion. That's an increase of 42% in just 5 years. And [laughter] >> yeah, I know it's just crazy. And the other way of looking at this is that your your purchasing power of your dollars have been cut in half, right? Just in that few short years. >> But having said all that, I want to go back the you mentioned a couple of times about the price of silver was 50 bucks back in 1980. >> And if you I did I did a quick calculation on chat and I said if you were to bring that forward using today's dollars, what's the price? It's $190 to $200. >> Okay. Yeah. >> Okay. And if we The other time we saw silver go to 50 bucks was in 2010 2011 that would be $75. So we're more or less there right now. Okay. So we got a long way to go. But let's talk about the silver gold ratio. And if you just look at that, where do you see it going? Where do you see the price of silver going here in the coming? Well, in 50 50 years going back to 75, if you plotted the highest monthly spread close of silver to gold, the monthly close during that year, that was the peak reading of the rat, the difference between silver and gold, 20 of those years was 2% at least, 20 out of 50. So that's not like rare. In fact, a lot of those occurred in nonbull market years. But in the bull market years 79 to 80 the tail end of those explosive moves and 201011 it got up to 6 and a half and just over 3%. So we're in a bull market now. We've broken out on the spread. So I don't think we're just going to 2% which is you know who cares. That's normal. Uh but we're at least going to match the old spread highs of those prior bull market. Heck we've taken out the price highs of those markets. Why not the the the ratio highs? And I think we will. I my minimum assumption and this is now minimum is that silver will least see 200 in the next 6 months. Okay, now that sounds crazy. Well, again, you know, when you look at that copper chart, you know, it went from like a a range from 50 cents to a buck 50 and all of a sudden went up to 450 in a couple quarters, you know, and it was unique to copper. uh these kind of things happen and I could have found six other markets that did the same thing over the past 50 years. Uh silver's doing its thing now and we all know that this time around it has unique factors that are underlying this but most people forget the real factor. Yeah, we have a supply demand deficit and we now have demand for silver that is outpacing supply based on high-tech things, solar generate, solar power, uh for the solar panels and also the all the tech and AI constructions that are going on. Silver is essential in that. It's embedded in everything you touch. Okay, maybe a small amount but it's it's it's an essential and that demand is eating up the supply and supply is not increasing despite the higher price. So you got a unique situation there on that just on that industrial aspect of but the underlying reality is it's money. Don't forget that it's poor man's gold and it's going to catch up to gold. It's going to catch up to its old relationships to gold and in the process that's an incredible price implication and I think it may even challenge the spread highs we saw in 1979 to 80 6%. Again we're 1.6 right now. Okay. Uh and take out the 2011 peak which was uh 3.1 I think. So those are factors that are underlying. So silver is like a surfer riding on waves and the top wave everybody chatters about. It's just the daytoday oh they raise margins on the comx or this that or the other of micro stuff that doesn't matter. It's the ongoing supply demand not whether the comx raise margins by 5 10% 5 10% 5 10%. That's it not that's not important. the the fundamentals are still there. And then you've got the monetary factor and that that is the one that's most people still aren't appreciating that's underlying gold and silver. >> Yes. You can't forget about the money supply. So, uh All right. So, you said you see gold or silver going to 200 bucks in the next six months. What about gold? If you go back and study silver on a logarithmic scale, not just a price chart, and gold on a logarithmic or ratio scale, and you go back to 75 when they legalized it, okay? Gold had a corrective low in 76 down near 100 bucks, 103 actually. In fact, I was standing next to the pit the day that occurred. It was in August of 73 uh in the ComX. Um it went from $103 to $850 in three and a half years. That's an eight-fold move. Okay. And under conditions that are nowhere comparable to the what's underlying the market right now in terms of massive monetary fundamentals. Then in 2011 after a 10-year runup that had an eight-fold move from 260 bucks to 1920. Eightfold. Oh, interesting. Okay. Now we're four-fold. Our bare market low was in 2015 at $1,50. We've gained fourfold. Okay. Yet, if underlying conditions are far more serious and yet to be unveiled fully, some people realize them. [clears throat] And if gold merely goes to, oh, I did it again or another eight-fold move, you'd be 8,000 plus. And even that's no big deal. So, I throw that number out a lot, not because I'm predicting it. I I think it's a nonsense number. you're going to get there and go way beyond it, especially when these underlying monetary factors become more bleeding obvious to the analysts and investors who are apparently oblivious to these factors. Uh so 8,000 would be you know so what we did it twice before uh I think gold could go way beyond that. So, when you express the ratio of silver to gold or or percent scale of silver to gold and you go to oh 3% of 8,000 gold, well, you put the number on it, you know. What if you go to 6% of 8,000 gold? Whoa. And what if gold doesn't stop at 8,000? Whoa. And plus, you did the the the monetary factor there of M2. Okay, that's very interesting because it says, "Yeah, 200. I just matched the 1980 high." Well, when markets go from excess one way, in this case is silver suppressed for too long and goes to a new reality, it'll usually overshoot what should be that new reality. You know, it overdoes itself. Uh this is typical of market moves. So, you know, it wouldn't shock me that if 200 is back to the 80 high, well, maybe you go to 500 before you settle back at two to 300. Okay, you get the point. So, and a lot of it because of our spread analysis which I think is the key factor now and also there's some other spreads that need to be looked at that just began and those [clears throat] are the asset class breakouts where gold versus the US stock market measured against the NASDAQ 100 or the S&P just blew through an 11year wide spread base where it lived in a range up and down versus the S&P were so gold would rally versus the S&P and didn't pull back and but in net on balance for 10 11 years gold was par to the S&P. People don't believe that. But you go back 10 years and gold was matching the S&P in es and flows but in a range that you could a kid with a crayon could draw. We broke out of that in October. That's a fresh base breakout spanning more than a decade. The gold miners did the same thing versus the S&P. Silver did the same thing versus the S&P. So these relative asset measurements tell us that monetary metals just broke out as an asset category versus the stock market. So the game just began. It's not over. >> It's really a reflection of how bad things are. >> I know people don't look at it that way, but things are really bad. And this is what's killing everybody is this inflation. It's the money printing and people's wages aren't going up nearly as fast as the rate of inflation. >> Yeah. Wait, wait till that kicks him in the gut. The commodity upturn which we see underway right now. Oil's a lagard, but oil's going to catch up real quick. >> So, let's talk about that because this is one of the things that's really saving us in terms of inflation is the price of oil. It's pretty well it's been on its ass for a good part of the year. It's under 60 bucks >> uh a barrel. Now I'm paying about I filled up today. I'm paying a$120 [clears throat] a liter. >> I can't remember the last time I I uh >> paid that. What are you paying for gas for a gallon of gas and >> about 250 or something out here in Colorado, but that the [clears throat] Yeah. So that Trump can can play that card and it as a commodity is very historically cheap relative to his own price history. It's if you run a spread chart of oil versus the S&P or oil versus gold or oil versus any asset, it's off the page cheap. Now, maybe we're not need oil anymore, right? Okay. Well, I agree with that. Maybe over over the next decades that won't be the case. But right now, it is in a slingshot position. I'm speaking technically. Not the price chart so much, but the momentum of price on a long-term basis, annual momentum, quarterly momentum. We've got a trigger level that's in I won't specify exactly what it is because our subscribers pay for that, but it's a handful of points above where you're trading now. Next quarter, starting Friday, you get oil up into the low 70s again. Oh, excuse me, into the low 60s again. That doesn't mean anything on a price chart, but on quarterly momentum says, I'm going to blow your head off. It's going to come roaring out of the hole and join the already strengthening Bloomberg commodity index. Look at copper for example. Look at platinum which is suddenly woken up. No surprise to us. We got bullish months ago. Uh and a lot of other commodities have suddenly Oh, I'm out of here. Oil's a lagard right now. The conspicuous one. But don't count on it staying down there. And when it comes out, it's not going to come out incrementally. It's probably going to surge$10 to $20 in in a heartbeat. And that's going to upset a lot of notions about, oh, I thought we were going to keep prices low. Uh-uh. And that's when the average guy out there suddenly looks at the horizon of his financial assets and he's already hurting on the average cost of living. He's passed due on his credit card which is maxed out. Uh his friend just got laid off. Uh but his stock portfolio is up what 10 15% this year. Oh boy. At least he has something to smile about when he loses that. And then also he sees his gas price jump 50 cents then a dollar. all hope goes and that's when emotions come into play. I think that reality is literally going to hit everybody in the face by the second quarter of this year. Yes. And one of the things about oil, we we've seen this so many times in spite of it being one of the largest commodity markets in the world, it's very volatile. Got down to 25 bucks in March, April of 2020. Just two years later with the invasion of Ukraine, it got up to 125 bucks. Well, let me correct you on that, though. Let me correct you on that. Oil peaked literally weeks after that war began. Most of the oil move occurred well before that war was even thought about or anticipated. So, it had already gone up because of literally cheapness, 25 bucks, back up to normality in in excess, got to 130. And then when that war started, if you shorted oil and the commodity complex in early March, 3 weeks after the war began in late February, you shorted the high. And so commodities have come down since that war began. So I'm betting if you ever get Ukraine, Russia, peace, so it sort of goes off the table for a while. I bet oil turns up then and people say, "What the heck? Why is it going up? We don't have a war. Don't count on war being the key element. >> All right. So, you mentioned the Bloomberg commodity index a couple of times. So, why don't we talk about that because this is another very interesting chart and maybe you can just quantify the numbers on it for those people who might not be watching this. They might be listening on Spotify or Apple. >> Bloomberg commodity index had [clears throat] a high in 2008 of 237. It had been advancing during that time coincident with gold and it peaked before gold and [clears throat] when you had that 2008 drop in the stock market commodities did pull back but then they came back up and had a secondary high in 2011 at 170. Okay. So you got two highs here of the last 20 years 28 uh 238 price Bloomberg I'm talking commodity index and 170. Right now we're at 110 and people think commodities are overpriced even versus their own prior history. They're less than half the price of where they were, you know, 2008 2011 [clears throat] after that runup from below 60 in mid 2020 and gold had doubled from 2015 to 2020. remember from,50 went up to 2,000. During that time, Bloomberg continued down. It was not correlated to gold and made a low below 60, which is like it went to be free freeric. I mean, what do you want to go to zero? Okay, there's commodities. Okay, it it shot from 60, turned up through 70, and we turned major bullish and said, "Okay, we're going to get a explosion." It went to 140 by early 2022. That was its wakeup surge. It said, "Okay, I'm alive." And then it pulled back under 100. But in the last couple years, it's lived in a range from roughly 110, actually more like 108 to about in the 90s. So sideways around 100 for a couple years. We broke out in October by our metrics when it was 106. It's now moved up several percent. No headlines up four or five% now at 10. They're going to settle a year maybe 110 111 area. Um we think it's in starting its second leg. Wow. And now it's going to join gold in in the wake of gold. Uh and people think well if you're right on the stock market making a major top MSA how could commodities go up? I'll say do your history. Okay. uh from 2000 to 2008 commodities advanced nicely while the stock market had collapsed from 2000 to 2002 and from 2007 to 2008 finally commodities did get weak but they'd already had a massive bull move while stock market was in lethargy and in two in 1970s late7s they joined gold then lagged to gold by about a year but they joined that bull market in gold where gold went to you know 850 bucks. Silver went to 50. Commodities joined the Bloomberg went up during global stagflation in the late '7s. The world was in repre in recession and yet commodities had a massive bull market. It's an issue of monetary flow and as you pointed out M2 is what you watch because when they pump the pump to save their bond market, to save their commodity, their stock market, they don't care about the price of corn. They want it to go down. That's okay. They don't want the price of the stock market to go down or especially the government debt market. They'll print money and like you've noted the last few months they they pushed on the pedal hard and I know why. It's the T-bond market. We can get on to that in a minute. But when they panic with the stock market roll over and if that T- bond market slips just a bit, they're going to really panic. I'll talk about slip in price rise again in yields and 30-year bonds. they're going to panic, meaning print money in various ways. What's the benefactor of that? That money goes somewhere. And if the investors don't put it in the stock market, which they never do during these periods of time of transition, the money flows into what? Monetary metals and quite often into commodities. So that's what we're sitting on. There's another monetary volcano which will benefit those asset categories. So, we are in 2026. Jay Powell's term ends in May and we're probably going to hear about a new Fed governor like any day now. But whoever it is is going to be very doubbish. Okay. Like they want to get into print now. >> Yeah. >> Okay. And this once again, this all bodess well for for precious metals and but it's also going to lead to a lot higher inflation. But you just touched on uh the treasuries. What would happen there? I mean, I can only imagine the US dollar is going to go lower. >> Yeah, it's already gone lower. Yeah, the dollar's anemic as hell. I mean, atund price of 10421 at the close of April this year. Uh, by the way, that's it was going down with the stock market at that point. The stock market since rebounded, but the dollar didn't. Okay, it went down under a 100red dollar index I'm talking about now, which is primarily the euro and the yen. They're 70% of the dollar index. It's now trading around 98. It's just lethargic down there. Can't seem to get a rally going. It's already broken its long-term momentum structure and it's going lower. Okay. But it's not really a good timing element for gold especially. You the correlation is not good. Uh so if you look at it and say, well, if the dollar doesn't go down, which it's been stable for six months, you shouldn't buy gold. Well, gold's exploded for the last since 2015. The dollar index has gone sideways actually. In December of 2015, it was uh 97 98. That's where we're trading right now 10 years later. Yeah, gold is what? Four-folded. Okay, forget the dollar now. Let's go to the T- bonds. T- bond market. US government long debt. We can talk about the Japanese have the same problem. UK has the same problem. Europe has the same problem. So, it's not just us. T-bond market collapsed 2020 to 2022 in price went up big in yield. The low of that monthly drop the collapse low in 2022 which is October. So it's been what three years three four five yeah been three three full years was 117. We're right now 115. Okay. It has tried during that threeyear period to have rallies in the T-bonds drops in yields but they don't go anywhere. and it relapses. Try it again. We've had three waves of upside effort in price. Three attempts to break the yield down. They don't work. That concerns the Fed. And so the uh Williams, the head of the New York Fed a month or so ago said in a speech or a press conference, and no doubt he was permitted to say this, the Fed is going to start buying B quote buying bonds. Okay? And he said the reason was oh no no no not some trouble in the bond market just ill liquidity in the bond they want to provide liquidity. Okay so if they've been buying is we know they have how come it's not going up. How come they can't get those yields down on the long end? They can cut short rates all they want but it doesn't impact that long end. And that's a market that right now at 115 we're telling people technically you don't want to go back. You don't want to drop four points from here down around 111, which approaches the lows we saw a year or so ago. Doesn't take them out. But you just approach those lows, you could implode the bond market in a a downside route that would panic the Fed into going berserk because that market is bigger than the US stock market. And if you cause doubt about whether you should buy T- bonds or Japanese bonds or UK bonds and people don't trust their government debt instruments, what happens? Very very interesting point and and this is another reason why we're seeing such a move in gold. I mean central banks have been buying anywhere from 25 to 30% of annual production for the last three four [clears throat] years now. Um, it's going to be interesting to see what the numbers were for 2025. Something else I want to throw out at you. I'm sure you've heard about Tether, largest stable coin provider in the world. Well, they've been backing up a truck on gold. And last time I read, they own 120 tons of gold that they bought in 2025. So, it's interesting to see these non-traditional buyers coming into the gold space. They're also buying royalty companies. They have positions, I believe, in two or three different names. The other thing I I thought was quite interesting, I'm sure you saw this, but Mike Wilson, who's the chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, he took his waiting traditional portfolio waiting from 6040 to 60 2020. Yeah. >> Recommending 20% a 20% waiting in gold. >> That is an intellectual honor statement the guy made. I mean to break the old orthodoxy and at least admit that real money should be part of your assets. Uh his ratio is wrong, but that's fine. The fact that he admitted that it should be a large component of a normal portfolio is is a great statement and it's an admission on his part that some something's wrong. Okay. And you know, Jamie Diamond, you know, has said a couple months ago, we we can't keep doing this government debt problem in relation to GDP. You can't keep playing that game. It finally you're going to run to a point where you got a crisis. And I'm thinking when you look at the T- bonds, which anybody in gold now should be focused on because that T-bond market if it cracks and the recent buying of it only has stabilized it and it it somehow cracks through the structural supports we see on momentum. That could cause a mini panic and you can't take that. If that yield chart pops through that shield, that that ceiling of highs we've had for the last three years, people are going to say they're going to pull their hair out and all kinds of assumptions based on stability will go out the window, including stock market or especially commercial real estate debt. We know commercial real estate is up to here and they can't it's longdated debt. They can't take that. The Fed knows it. uh they don't want to talk about it specifically, but that's the kind of sideline ambush that could really undercut all kinds of assumptions, hopes, and generate fears which creates change. So the shift that we've seen in the spread relation between real money in the stock market, which just broke out in October, gold or silver even broke out versus the stock market or gold miners broke out. It's saying something. It says some money's moving over there enough to break out of a massive decadewide base. >> The last time we spoke, you expressed concern within Bitcoin. Okay. And at that time, I believe Bitcoin was trading around 116 and you said if it goes below 107, be very concerned. And of course, now here we are below 90,000 bucks. Uh it moves around so much. But this could be another area of concern here in the next few months if it keeps going lower because we have so many of these companies. They call them uh Bitcoin treasury companies, but Micro Strategy being the biggest. >> Uh I think it's [clears throat] down 40% on the year. Can't remember. But anyhow, maybe you can just talk about that. Where do you see Bitcoin going? >> Now, we've been negative on Bitcoin because of the long-term momentum trend structures that we maintain and monitor. Uh you don't see it on the price chart, but we could tell when you went up and made that high 120, what was it? 123, 126, something like that. Uh literally several months ago. Uh when it rolled back over, got back under 110. We believe started to blow on momentum charts, major floors that go back three years. Not on the price chart. Price chart just look, oh, it's just another downturn. But on our long-term momentum, it was blowing literally a floor that any child with a crayon could plot. Okay? And when you did, you puked. We get down to low 80s. Okay. Since then, we've lived in a range, and we may live in that range for another month or so. Wouldn't surprise us. Same with the stock market. We may not see a sharp drop there for a while. Maybe a couple months. But I think the top is in for Bitcoin. And I think our first target is 60,000. Well, that's a wipeout. That's more than 50% off the high. Uh it's not going to go there right away. I think it could be, you know, maybe mid year we'll see that. But in the next decline, that's where you're going. And right now, all we're seeing is this repeated buying that is spinning its wheels. It's not going anywhere. You you rally at 10,000 bucks and it comes back. You get the point. Uh but the real next break is the one that's going to be very painful cuz that's going to take out all the gains of anybody who bought even three years ago. you know, not just the recent buyers who got really hooked, but you're going to wipe out so many of the longs, whether they're using ETFs or companies and so forth. And there's also, as you pointed out, there's a lot of companies that aren't involved in Bitcoin before, and suddenly they're involved in crypto, like even Visa has accepted crypto, you know, or or Bitcoin. Uh, so a lot of interfacing there that is no longer is it just Bitcoin doing something. Bitcoin's had major collapses before bare markets, but it didn't matter. But now Bitcoin is so intertwined, even the president's family. Okay. Uh it it will jar loose things that didn't happen before, therefore impact the financial sector. So that's why Bitcoin is somewhat important right now. >> I just want to clarify a few of your your price points uh on Bitcoin. So the the all-time high is 125. So right now we've been hanging around this call it 85 to $90,000 range. Do you think we're just consolidating now? We're going to have a move up to we're going to test that 125 high again. >> No, I don't think so. I think you rally high uh you know in the low 190 low 90s and in the low 80s where the range has been for a couple months. I look at a weekly chart just like this. Uh it'll continue to hover. Maybe you nip out that recent rally high. I don't care. But it's mainly consolidation in the middle of a collapse. In other words, rather than going a full crash from point A to B, you're going halfway there and you're congesting. And I think the rally, which is futile so far, might continue that way for another month or so before you finally decide that uh it's been a waste of time. It isn't working. The rallies come, they go. in which case the guys who've been buying this will realize this ain't working. Uh and when you slip back down through those recent lows at some point I think that the next wave of panic will set in that may be coordinated with a stock market break. So I I our suspicion right now is to give the benefit of the doubt to the what we think is a topping stock market. It's been topping since January despite the fact we made new highs. It didn't matter. the momentum has been topping just like 20207. It was a laborious one-yearwide process. Uh but Bitcoin has been pretty much in sync with the NASDAQ 100 for example. Now recently it's dropped a lot more. The NASDAQ hasn't made new highs by the way lately if you'll notice that uh well the S&P did. But so Bitcoin had this large percent drop when NASDAQ didn't. It wouldn't surprise us to see the next drop in Bitcoin also have coincident decline with the stock market. But again, I think that might be something that's pushed off until we get well into the next quarter. Yes. And here's the other interesting thing about the NASDAQ right now. A lot of these what's really driven the growth in 2025 was it was all AI, Nvidia, Open AI. Um, >> you know, you look at some of these names. Uh, Nvidia, it's still up on the year, but it's down quite a bit from its high, which was in October. Microsoft, same sort of thing. They own 25 or 27% of Open AI. So, there's big exposure there. Oracle, I find very interesting. They're another one of these uh hyperscalers have been spending billions of dollars on on data centers, and it's down 40% from its peak. still up on the year barely, but >> yeah, the leaders. Yeah. >> You know, here's the other thing like the I see a lot of similarities between the tech bubble and vendor financing and all this financing that's going on now with these hyperscalers. >> Yep. Yep. Yep. >> So that that here's the >> back in 2000 a similar thing happened dot with the dot com. It led the bull market in the latter phase. AI led the latter phase of this stock bull market. It didn't lead the early phase or the middle. There's the latter part where suddenly Nvidia went parabolic and so forth. So it was the leader in the last quarter of the bull market that's been going on since 2009. Okay. Uh but if you run spread charts, relative performance charts, suddenly now everybody's cheering the fact that some backwater sectors are holding up better than AI. They said, "Oh, it's just rotation." Yeah. When that occurred in 2000, remember we put out a sell signal in January 2000 on the S&P and it dropped into February, went up into March, made a new high, dropped back, came into August, made a new high monthly close, oh like 10% or higher than the January level. But basically a process, but during that sideways process in the S&P, the NASDAQ 100 was deteriorating on a relative basis. the spread the relative performance chart of NASDAQ versus S&P is doing this as you're you're just identified via the action of these AI stocks. That was the real tip as to when the real break occurred which started in late 2000. That's when the spread chart of NASDAQ versus S&P really started to break structure. We have a same type of situation now underway where the leadership is no longer leading. No, it's not collapsing, but it's just sort of not doing what it's supposed to do. And that's the key element to drive the market down. So, when those spread charts break down, NASDAQ versus S&P, and they have structures that you could plot on a chart, when they break down, that's when the hell breaks loose in the stock market. And this so-called diversification that everybody's cheering, we won't be cheering it anymore. >> And so, you see this happening in Q1, Q2? Yeah, I think this is this is unwinding and I think it's the start of the next leg. The next leg will not be comfortable and that's when that spread relationship between gold and the S&P will really express itself even more so with not only gold going up further but the stock market actually coming down. Uh and that spread chart has a long way to go and it is a fresh breakout of an 11-year wide base. You don't go up for a month or two and say, "Oh, that was it." Uh-uh. You just broke out. That spread relationship's going to persist for a couple years at least, and God knows where gold is going to be at during that process. >> So, I'm really going to put you on the spot now, Michael. >> Okay, good. >> So, what So, if we look out a year from now, uh, late December 2026, where do you see the S&P? >> I don't know except to say that prior, it's not really that important. It's more important that the asset class shifts. Yeah, the stock market is a vulnerable component of this, but it's not the only one. This isn't just a.com break. This is stock market. US government debt market. We didn't have a gut government debt market crisis in 2007. We had mortgages in 2000. We had the dot top. It was focused primarily on the tech. You know, S&P dropped 50% in the next couple years. 2002 low. NASDAQ went down 82%. Almost a full wipeout. So, but this time we've got other components. We've got a dollar breaking a massive decade long uptrend on it on it on its annual momentum. We've got the T- bonds sick as hell. I mean, you can't afford another drop in the T-bonds. People will rip their heads off because they've got long-term debt. The Fed will will go panic. In which case, all the assumptions about normality, not just of the stock market, but of every other asset category out the window. and they do so with speed. So, I don't know where the stock market's going to be. >> Now, there's one thing that I think is going to make 2026 different. I want to uh push back on what you're saying here. We have uh midterms coming up. Okay. And in my mind, the government, this is true of all governments, doesn't matter what country you're in, but they're going to do anything and everything they can to stay in power, right? To make sure seats. And so they're going to be pulling out all the stops >> just to keep this economy going, to keep the stock market going. >> What do you say to that? >> Uh it's not going to work. Uh the both parties I see a future not just based on market movements, but fundamental underlying issues, governments, government debt, uh political stability, things like that where notions of normality will go out the window. Not just market normalities, not just assumptions about is government debt even stable, but we have a two-party system for decades now. You know, uh, one takes power, they exist for another eight years or so, but the policies really don't change that much. We still the debt grows and grows. You know, may may go to this component or that component. It's still a rising debt situation. U, the Democrat party, we know, is fractured badly. They don't know whether to go moderate or go radical left. And who knows, maybe they'll split and go both ways. Oh. Uh, the Republican party is totally fractured now. The old Goldwaterits, the Reaganites, the conservative intellectual base of the GOP, they're gone. A lot of them are leaving the party. You know, they're they're running for local office and abandoning their congressional seats. I've read this recently that the number they're not running again and going to local or going to business or something. Uh, they're leaving. They don't like what's going on. They don't like what Trump's done in terms of global interventions and so forth. Uh or in his desire to print money, which is hardly a conservative free market approach to an economy, printing money. That's what the left used to do. Now Trump wants to do it. So even the free marketers and the GOP are saying, "Hey, this isn't my party." So expect the GOP to fracture. Well, if both parties fracture, then neither party can get a majority. I mean, you know, if the if you total sum popularity of the Democrat party is 25 or 30% and the same for the G, neither one has a majority, you'll suddenly have the rise of of other maybe minority parties that might actually rival them in terms of gathering a percent of vote, radical left, uh, old GOP types. I don't know. But don't be surprised by that sort of fragmentation, which means this election coming up isn't just a shift back to the Democrats because I don't think the Democrats quite know how to do that. Do we go left to get that vote? Do we go moderate? Try to replicate some of Trump's things. You know, they're split. So, expect total chaos in that arena, too. So, anything you think is going to just shift to another norm again, uh-uh, it could be totally different than you expect. So, get somewhere where you think it's safe. >> And you know what that you know what that is? Okay. Uh, we know what that is. >> Yeah. One thing I would say, so as you know, I'm in Toronto, Canada, and we have a multi-party system here, and I think what do we got? Four or five parties. One of them is the Green [clears throat] Party. They only have like one seat in parliament. They're useless. Why we allow this is beyond me. And then we have uh two other parties. What are >> the NDP which is socialist far left. Okay. But what happens is with these parties, they basically split the vote. And right now the Liberals, they've had minority governments for the last three elections. Okay. So they can't get anything done. They have to do these side deals with the NDP or >> that that other party in Quebec. So um >> well we've had this normality for a super long human lifetime. Okay. What if it doesn't cons persist anymore? Then everybody's notion of norms are gone. My portfolio is not acted well. Why? Uh oil price just exploded. Why? Uh commodity prices continue up. Uh my wife just lost her job. I've got to go work at Walmart. You know, you get the point. All these things start to happen and cascade at once and I think we're literally right around the corner and I think that the monetary medals know what's under what surf they're riding. Okay. You mentioned something earlier I just want to ask you about and that's leadership and so in the past few years it's been tech let's just say the MEG >> seven >> and that's not the case now. They're starting they're starting to come under pressure. Where who becomes the new leader? >> What sector >> in the If you want to invest in the stock market, we strongly suggest if you're not into gold and gold miners, okay, they've already launched significantly and they got a long way to go, but you're you're chasing something. The commodity complex, the broad commodity complex measured by Bloomberg in our assessment is begun its second major upwave. We know what will fuel it. One, they're cheap. And two, they're being funded because when they print the money, it goes somewhere. And if people don't like the stock market, they put it where right now I would be seriously considering oil sector stocks, agricultural related stocks, base metal mining stocks, basic commodity essential companies. Uh there are ETFs on that, but you could also pick we we go through a lot of the symbols that we happen to like. uh but I think that is a a ground level point of entry in the stock market and it does not correlate well to the stock market meaning if you get a bare market don't expect them to go down because a lot of the up market they didn't go up so they're non-correlated and they look like a cheap safe and a good investment grade place to be meaning for several years not just a trade so that's what I'd be looking at >> and so your message to somebody like there's a lot of people out there that still are not aware of what's happening in uh precious metals. They're too caught up in AI and you know open AI and all this other stuff. What's your message to those people? And they're also they're being scared about silver for example. You know all the I've noticed on the financial TV channels when silver has a good solid upday they hardly mention it. When it has a big down day they all mention it and you hear this chorus about it's no good. It's topped. uh sell silver, buy gold, which is totally wrong. The spread says the opp total opposite and it just broke out. Uh you hear all the negativity on every drop. So that the if you're a contrarian, you know that the guy who's done best over the last year, especially who's bought every single panic sell off in silver is doing far better than anybody else in the world. And that's going to continue. Now, there'll be a point at which finally the public says, "Golly, I missed it. I got to have it." And of course, silver at that point might be 150 to $200 and then you'll have this wave come in and it takes up to 400 or something. Uh, which I fully expect, but right now there's still rampant skepticism about the monetary metals and they don't seem to appreciate that massive fundamental wave that's driving them that we've talked about. So that's where I'd say you got to screw your head on and reorient yourself now if you want to enjoy the next few years and benefit from it. And so any pullback if we see a nice 20 30% pullback in gold or silver I think in silver I think you should you should consider any upturn you see now in silver for example went down a punch below 70 today took out a bunch of little sell stops of people who've been buying above 70 who were smart no problem. Uh you you get back up anywhere near approach 80 again they're gonna blow your head off. >> Well that's great. Okay. Well, listen, this has been a great discussion as always and I I want to let our viewers know um we are organizing a virtual gold conference later in January. We're also going to do one focused on silver. Uh in terms of the gold one, we have a number of major gold players showing up. We got um Agniko, Santara, Oiscoco, a number of other players. Um and and so just keep an eye on my uh YouTube channel, Blur Street Capital. Follow me on Twitter or also on LinkedIn. I do a lot of posting there and you can be kept up to date. Michael is going to be speaking uh on both gold and also silver so you can get recent updates here in the next two to three weeks. And Michael, if somebody would like to check out you and look at your research in more detail, where can they go? >> Oliver MSA for momentum structural analysis. OliverMsa.com. Take some time. We have an unorthodox technical methodology. We explained it fairly well. Request some sample reports. >> And uh once again, I want to thank you for showing up on New Year's Day. And um I'm going to have a link below in the show notes. So if anybody wants to check out your website, they can check it out there. Michael, once again, thank you and happy new year. >> Thank you, James. You too. [music]
New Years Day Special on Gold and Silver | Michael Oliver and Jimmy Connor
Summary
Transcript
Michael, thank you very much for joining us today on our New Year's Day special. Happy New Year's. >> Great to be back, James. >> So, so much has happened since the last time we spoke, which was September the 22nd. But I'm sure you would agree with me, 2025 was a remarkable year. The S&P was up 16, the Nasdaq was up 20, gold up 60, silver up 140. So, uh, you met a lot of your targets and I want to get into it, but when you reflect back on 2025, what surprised you the most, if anything? >> Really not much. uh except the continued which is no longer the case the continued layered approach to silver by most investors where they they doubtful every time there's a surge that is impressive even though it was in the old range the old 50-year antique range that it had been in even those surges they doubted oh it's overdone you know RSI says this that and so they doubted all along the way and the guy who did the best wasn't the guy who doubted and flinched at every downturn, but the guy who said, "Every time I get a 10 or 15% drop in silver, I'm buying more." Okay. He's the guy who did far better than the guy who was cautious, quote unquote. Okay. >> Yeah. Well, I fall into that latter category. I've been very cautious with silver and I've been a doubter. I'm not going to lie to you, Michael, but I've been very bullish on gold. Still am. So, why don't we get into it? And I just want to remind our viewers, the last time we spoke was September the 22nd. Like I said, so much has happened since then. And I I just want to go through the numbers. Okay, September the 22nd, gold was at 3,700 and silver was at 42. And here we are in Jan 1. Gold is at 4,300, give or take. Silver is at 70, was at 80, but uh so gold's up 60% on the year, silver's up 140% on the year. So, let's get into it. What is your take for 2026? And are you concerned at all with these moves that we've seen? >> Concerned in the sense that we might get a pullback. >> They I think you had the pullback. Okay. Silver is in an acceleration mode. It's not in a normal uptrend mode. So if one applies the normal technical metrics that say overbought for example, ignore them. We're not in a normal market. A normal market meaning a normal bull market, you know, that goes up in layers or a trading range market that gets successes both ways. Silver is in a seeking a new reality market is what the phrase we use. It's going into a new reality and it's going to do it suddenly. Meaning by our metrics, not judging the silver by its own dynamics, but the silver versus gold situation, which a lot of people plot the other way. You know, the the rate uh ratio, we we divide silver into gold and express the answer is a percent. And back early this year, it was down to 1% silver ounce versus an ounce of gold, which if you go back 50 years, you see times when it's that low, you buy it because it's it's too low in relation to gold. In the 1979 to 80 move, which everybody remembers, that's when silver went actually from it had been in a low around three or four bucks and went to 50 over a couple years. A lot of that compressed in the last couple quarters. In fact, a four-fold increase in the final four two quarters of that move. And in 2001 through 2011, there was another bull market, but a lot of it was compressed in a couple quarters in September of 2010 through April 2011 where several several doubled in a half in five months. Okay. But those were within that old range of reality. You know, the half a century of this. Okay, you've got some charts if you want to show them. But there there have been other markets that over history, rare events admittedly, but have been stuck in [clears throat] price ranges. Copper's one, lead's another. We've shown to our subscribers back in u this is just a good historical example. Copper was stuck in a range like silver between the 1970s, 80s, 90s, 2000 and 2005. The top of that range was about a buck 50. Okay? And it suddenly decided for whatever reason unique to itself because it did it on its own. It was not coincident with gold. It was not coincident with other base metals. copper quadrupled in a couple quarters and then subsequent to that, yeah, it overshot, you know, no it's no new normality, but it it moved out of the old multi-deade range and did it like bam, [clears throat] not in an incremental layered manner. Lead did the same thing in 2007. It had been in like a 40-year range and it said, "Oh, okay. I shouldn't have been here that long. on price too low relative to let's say degradation of the money unit. So it did the same thing. It quadrupled in a couple quarters in 2007 and then subsequently lived in a new price reality that was roughly four times the price level of that average old price reality. Okay. Well, silver's been in that reality for 50 years. Why didn't silver coincident with copper in 2007 or 2005 or lead in 2007 or gold in its repeated eightfold bull markets goes well past the old high and yet silver stays in the box. What's going on there? you know well there's arguments that you know it's been artificially retain restrained and so forth but forgetting that when a market decides to say hey you know I made a mistake it quite often will compensate for the mistake by repricing itself rapidly this is true with like bull market bubble tops like in the stock market sometimes it crashes okay it compensates for it overdoes it well silver saying hey I'm out of here and the momentum already said that back In June, we said, "Okay, when silver was coming up toward that mid $30 level, it been 35 and 35 in 2024 and 2025 early." And silver could drop down under 30 again and it's coming back up in June of this year and it was in the mid30s and we said, "Uhoh, this time it's different. You're going to accelerate." That was a momentum based assessment, not just that price looked good. And sure enough, it zoomed past 35 and got up, you know, up toward the old range highs, the $50 stuff. Uh, and now we've since blown that out. But it's it's mode of advancement has accelerated like you noted the year to date. You know, few people are cheering that they're they're screaming at every downturn. The difference this time is the silver gold ratio just broke out of a massive technical basing range. Of course, silver had been caught in a box since the early like 2022, 2023, 2024. It kept coming back back up to like 1.2 something% of gold and go back down. So, you could see it on a spread chart which we've we've also sent to you. And when it broke out, that was the November close. And silver then was what? 44. You said something like that. Yeah. Where we last talked. Okay. Well, look what happened since the month of December. You went Well, I think the actually I think the November price close was in the mid-50s. So, we gained, you know, 10 20 30% in a matter of four weeks. What caused that? The spread broke out. And when you go back and look at that 79 explosion to 1980 where you quadrupled in 67 months or the 2010 to 111 explosion already in a bull market but it exploded those lasted a couple quarters. We just broke out into November. So this clock is very young and people aren't understanding that something different is going on. >> So you raised a couple of good points here. First of all, um, you talk about the money supply and we got to talk about this. What the governments have done in the US and Canada and throughout the Western world is just crazy in terms of money printing. And I just want to quantify this. In 2020, January of 2020, before all the craziness started, the money supply as measured by M2 was 15 trillion. Now it's 22.4 trillion. That's an increase of 42% in just 5 years. And [laughter] >> yeah, I know it's just crazy. And the other way of looking at this is that your your purchasing power of your dollars have been cut in half, right? Just in that few short years. >> But having said all that, I want to go back the you mentioned a couple of times about the price of silver was 50 bucks back in 1980. >> And if you I did I did a quick calculation on chat and I said if you were to bring that forward using today's dollars, what's the price? It's $190 to $200. >> Okay. Yeah. >> Okay. And if we The other time we saw silver go to 50 bucks was in 2010 2011 that would be $75. So we're more or less there right now. Okay. So we got a long way to go. But let's talk about the silver gold ratio. And if you just look at that, where do you see it going? Where do you see the price of silver going here in the coming? Well, in 50 50 years going back to 75, if you plotted the highest monthly spread close of silver to gold, the monthly close during that year, that was the peak reading of the rat, the difference between silver and gold, 20 of those years was 2% at least, 20 out of 50. So that's not like rare. In fact, a lot of those occurred in nonbull market years. But in the bull market years 79 to 80 the tail end of those explosive moves and 201011 it got up to 6 and a half and just over 3%. So we're in a bull market now. We've broken out on the spread. So I don't think we're just going to 2% which is you know who cares. That's normal. Uh but we're at least going to match the old spread highs of those prior bull market. Heck we've taken out the price highs of those markets. Why not the the the ratio highs? And I think we will. I my minimum assumption and this is now minimum is that silver will least see 200 in the next 6 months. Okay, now that sounds crazy. Well, again, you know, when you look at that copper chart, you know, it went from like a a range from 50 cents to a buck 50 and all of a sudden went up to 450 in a couple quarters, you know, and it was unique to copper. uh these kind of things happen and I could have found six other markets that did the same thing over the past 50 years. Uh silver's doing its thing now and we all know that this time around it has unique factors that are underlying this but most people forget the real factor. Yeah, we have a supply demand deficit and we now have demand for silver that is outpacing supply based on high-tech things, solar generate, solar power, uh for the solar panels and also the all the tech and AI constructions that are going on. Silver is essential in that. It's embedded in everything you touch. Okay, maybe a small amount but it's it's it's an essential and that demand is eating up the supply and supply is not increasing despite the higher price. So you got a unique situation there on that just on that industrial aspect of but the underlying reality is it's money. Don't forget that it's poor man's gold and it's going to catch up to gold. It's going to catch up to its old relationships to gold and in the process that's an incredible price implication and I think it may even challenge the spread highs we saw in 1979 to 80 6%. Again we're 1.6 right now. Okay. Uh and take out the 2011 peak which was uh 3.1 I think. So those are factors that are underlying. So silver is like a surfer riding on waves and the top wave everybody chatters about. It's just the daytoday oh they raise margins on the comx or this that or the other of micro stuff that doesn't matter. It's the ongoing supply demand not whether the comx raise margins by 5 10% 5 10% 5 10%. That's it not that's not important. the the fundamentals are still there. And then you've got the monetary factor and that that is the one that's most people still aren't appreciating that's underlying gold and silver. >> Yes. You can't forget about the money supply. So, uh All right. So, you said you see gold or silver going to 200 bucks in the next six months. What about gold? If you go back and study silver on a logarithmic scale, not just a price chart, and gold on a logarithmic or ratio scale, and you go back to 75 when they legalized it, okay? Gold had a corrective low in 76 down near 100 bucks, 103 actually. In fact, I was standing next to the pit the day that occurred. It was in August of 73 uh in the ComX. Um it went from $103 to $850 in three and a half years. That's an eight-fold move. Okay. And under conditions that are nowhere comparable to the what's underlying the market right now in terms of massive monetary fundamentals. Then in 2011 after a 10-year runup that had an eight-fold move from 260 bucks to 1920. Eightfold. Oh, interesting. Okay. Now we're four-fold. Our bare market low was in 2015 at $1,50. We've gained fourfold. Okay. Yet, if underlying conditions are far more serious and yet to be unveiled fully, some people realize them. [clears throat] And if gold merely goes to, oh, I did it again or another eight-fold move, you'd be 8,000 plus. And even that's no big deal. So, I throw that number out a lot, not because I'm predicting it. I I think it's a nonsense number. you're going to get there and go way beyond it, especially when these underlying monetary factors become more bleeding obvious to the analysts and investors who are apparently oblivious to these factors. Uh so 8,000 would be you know so what we did it twice before uh I think gold could go way beyond that. So, when you express the ratio of silver to gold or or percent scale of silver to gold and you go to oh 3% of 8,000 gold, well, you put the number on it, you know. What if you go to 6% of 8,000 gold? Whoa. And what if gold doesn't stop at 8,000? Whoa. And plus, you did the the the monetary factor there of M2. Okay, that's very interesting because it says, "Yeah, 200. I just matched the 1980 high." Well, when markets go from excess one way, in this case is silver suppressed for too long and goes to a new reality, it'll usually overshoot what should be that new reality. You know, it overdoes itself. Uh this is typical of market moves. So, you know, it wouldn't shock me that if 200 is back to the 80 high, well, maybe you go to 500 before you settle back at two to 300. Okay, you get the point. So, and a lot of it because of our spread analysis which I think is the key factor now and also there's some other spreads that need to be looked at that just began and those [clears throat] are the asset class breakouts where gold versus the US stock market measured against the NASDAQ 100 or the S&P just blew through an 11year wide spread base where it lived in a range up and down versus the S&P were so gold would rally versus the S&P and didn't pull back and but in net on balance for 10 11 years gold was par to the S&P. People don't believe that. But you go back 10 years and gold was matching the S&P in es and flows but in a range that you could a kid with a crayon could draw. We broke out of that in October. That's a fresh base breakout spanning more than a decade. The gold miners did the same thing versus the S&P. Silver did the same thing versus the S&P. So these relative asset measurements tell us that monetary metals just broke out as an asset category versus the stock market. So the game just began. It's not over. >> It's really a reflection of how bad things are. >> I know people don't look at it that way, but things are really bad. And this is what's killing everybody is this inflation. It's the money printing and people's wages aren't going up nearly as fast as the rate of inflation. >> Yeah. Wait, wait till that kicks him in the gut. The commodity upturn which we see underway right now. Oil's a lagard, but oil's going to catch up real quick. >> So, let's talk about that because this is one of the things that's really saving us in terms of inflation is the price of oil. It's pretty well it's been on its ass for a good part of the year. It's under 60 bucks >> uh a barrel. Now I'm paying about I filled up today. I'm paying a$120 [clears throat] a liter. >> I can't remember the last time I I uh >> paid that. What are you paying for gas for a gallon of gas and >> about 250 or something out here in Colorado, but that the [clears throat] Yeah. So that Trump can can play that card and it as a commodity is very historically cheap relative to his own price history. It's if you run a spread chart of oil versus the S&P or oil versus gold or oil versus any asset, it's off the page cheap. Now, maybe we're not need oil anymore, right? Okay. Well, I agree with that. Maybe over over the next decades that won't be the case. But right now, it is in a slingshot position. I'm speaking technically. Not the price chart so much, but the momentum of price on a long-term basis, annual momentum, quarterly momentum. We've got a trigger level that's in I won't specify exactly what it is because our subscribers pay for that, but it's a handful of points above where you're trading now. Next quarter, starting Friday, you get oil up into the low 70s again. Oh, excuse me, into the low 60s again. That doesn't mean anything on a price chart, but on quarterly momentum says, I'm going to blow your head off. It's going to come roaring out of the hole and join the already strengthening Bloomberg commodity index. Look at copper for example. Look at platinum which is suddenly woken up. No surprise to us. We got bullish months ago. Uh and a lot of other commodities have suddenly Oh, I'm out of here. Oil's a lagard right now. The conspicuous one. But don't count on it staying down there. And when it comes out, it's not going to come out incrementally. It's probably going to surge$10 to $20 in in a heartbeat. And that's going to upset a lot of notions about, oh, I thought we were going to keep prices low. Uh-uh. And that's when the average guy out there suddenly looks at the horizon of his financial assets and he's already hurting on the average cost of living. He's passed due on his credit card which is maxed out. Uh his friend just got laid off. Uh but his stock portfolio is up what 10 15% this year. Oh boy. At least he has something to smile about when he loses that. And then also he sees his gas price jump 50 cents then a dollar. all hope goes and that's when emotions come into play. I think that reality is literally going to hit everybody in the face by the second quarter of this year. Yes. And one of the things about oil, we we've seen this so many times in spite of it being one of the largest commodity markets in the world, it's very volatile. Got down to 25 bucks in March, April of 2020. Just two years later with the invasion of Ukraine, it got up to 125 bucks. Well, let me correct you on that, though. Let me correct you on that. Oil peaked literally weeks after that war began. Most of the oil move occurred well before that war was even thought about or anticipated. So, it had already gone up because of literally cheapness, 25 bucks, back up to normality in in excess, got to 130. And then when that war started, if you shorted oil and the commodity complex in early March, 3 weeks after the war began in late February, you shorted the high. And so commodities have come down since that war began. So I'm betting if you ever get Ukraine, Russia, peace, so it sort of goes off the table for a while. I bet oil turns up then and people say, "What the heck? Why is it going up? We don't have a war. Don't count on war being the key element. >> All right. So, you mentioned the Bloomberg commodity index a couple of times. So, why don't we talk about that because this is another very interesting chart and maybe you can just quantify the numbers on it for those people who might not be watching this. They might be listening on Spotify or Apple. >> Bloomberg commodity index had [clears throat] a high in 2008 of 237. It had been advancing during that time coincident with gold and it peaked before gold and [clears throat] when you had that 2008 drop in the stock market commodities did pull back but then they came back up and had a secondary high in 2011 at 170. Okay. So you got two highs here of the last 20 years 28 uh 238 price Bloomberg I'm talking commodity index and 170. Right now we're at 110 and people think commodities are overpriced even versus their own prior history. They're less than half the price of where they were, you know, 2008 2011 [clears throat] after that runup from below 60 in mid 2020 and gold had doubled from 2015 to 2020. remember from,50 went up to 2,000. During that time, Bloomberg continued down. It was not correlated to gold and made a low below 60, which is like it went to be free freeric. I mean, what do you want to go to zero? Okay, there's commodities. Okay, it it shot from 60, turned up through 70, and we turned major bullish and said, "Okay, we're going to get a explosion." It went to 140 by early 2022. That was its wakeup surge. It said, "Okay, I'm alive." And then it pulled back under 100. But in the last couple years, it's lived in a range from roughly 110, actually more like 108 to about in the 90s. So sideways around 100 for a couple years. We broke out in October by our metrics when it was 106. It's now moved up several percent. No headlines up four or five% now at 10. They're going to settle a year maybe 110 111 area. Um we think it's in starting its second leg. Wow. And now it's going to join gold in in the wake of gold. Uh and people think well if you're right on the stock market making a major top MSA how could commodities go up? I'll say do your history. Okay. uh from 2000 to 2008 commodities advanced nicely while the stock market had collapsed from 2000 to 2002 and from 2007 to 2008 finally commodities did get weak but they'd already had a massive bull move while stock market was in lethargy and in two in 1970s late7s they joined gold then lagged to gold by about a year but they joined that bull market in gold where gold went to you know 850 bucks. Silver went to 50. Commodities joined the Bloomberg went up during global stagflation in the late '7s. The world was in repre in recession and yet commodities had a massive bull market. It's an issue of monetary flow and as you pointed out M2 is what you watch because when they pump the pump to save their bond market, to save their commodity, their stock market, they don't care about the price of corn. They want it to go down. That's okay. They don't want the price of the stock market to go down or especially the government debt market. They'll print money and like you've noted the last few months they they pushed on the pedal hard and I know why. It's the T-bond market. We can get on to that in a minute. But when they panic with the stock market roll over and if that T- bond market slips just a bit, they're going to really panic. I'll talk about slip in price rise again in yields and 30-year bonds. they're going to panic, meaning print money in various ways. What's the benefactor of that? That money goes somewhere. And if the investors don't put it in the stock market, which they never do during these periods of time of transition, the money flows into what? Monetary metals and quite often into commodities. So that's what we're sitting on. There's another monetary volcano which will benefit those asset categories. So, we are in 2026. Jay Powell's term ends in May and we're probably going to hear about a new Fed governor like any day now. But whoever it is is going to be very doubbish. Okay. Like they want to get into print now. >> Yeah. >> Okay. And this once again, this all bodess well for for precious metals and but it's also going to lead to a lot higher inflation. But you just touched on uh the treasuries. What would happen there? I mean, I can only imagine the US dollar is going to go lower. >> Yeah, it's already gone lower. Yeah, the dollar's anemic as hell. I mean, atund price of 10421 at the close of April this year. Uh, by the way, that's it was going down with the stock market at that point. The stock market since rebounded, but the dollar didn't. Okay, it went down under a 100red dollar index I'm talking about now, which is primarily the euro and the yen. They're 70% of the dollar index. It's now trading around 98. It's just lethargic down there. Can't seem to get a rally going. It's already broken its long-term momentum structure and it's going lower. Okay. But it's not really a good timing element for gold especially. You the correlation is not good. Uh so if you look at it and say, well, if the dollar doesn't go down, which it's been stable for six months, you shouldn't buy gold. Well, gold's exploded for the last since 2015. The dollar index has gone sideways actually. In December of 2015, it was uh 97 98. That's where we're trading right now 10 years later. Yeah, gold is what? Four-folded. Okay, forget the dollar now. Let's go to the T- bonds. T- bond market. US government long debt. We can talk about the Japanese have the same problem. UK has the same problem. Europe has the same problem. So, it's not just us. T-bond market collapsed 2020 to 2022 in price went up big in yield. The low of that monthly drop the collapse low in 2022 which is October. So it's been what three years three four five yeah been three three full years was 117. We're right now 115. Okay. It has tried during that threeyear period to have rallies in the T-bonds drops in yields but they don't go anywhere. and it relapses. Try it again. We've had three waves of upside effort in price. Three attempts to break the yield down. They don't work. That concerns the Fed. And so the uh Williams, the head of the New York Fed a month or so ago said in a speech or a press conference, and no doubt he was permitted to say this, the Fed is going to start buying B quote buying bonds. Okay? And he said the reason was oh no no no not some trouble in the bond market just ill liquidity in the bond they want to provide liquidity. Okay so if they've been buying is we know they have how come it's not going up. How come they can't get those yields down on the long end? They can cut short rates all they want but it doesn't impact that long end. And that's a market that right now at 115 we're telling people technically you don't want to go back. You don't want to drop four points from here down around 111, which approaches the lows we saw a year or so ago. Doesn't take them out. But you just approach those lows, you could implode the bond market in a a downside route that would panic the Fed into going berserk because that market is bigger than the US stock market. And if you cause doubt about whether you should buy T- bonds or Japanese bonds or UK bonds and people don't trust their government debt instruments, what happens? Very very interesting point and and this is another reason why we're seeing such a move in gold. I mean central banks have been buying anywhere from 25 to 30% of annual production for the last three four [clears throat] years now. Um, it's going to be interesting to see what the numbers were for 2025. Something else I want to throw out at you. I'm sure you've heard about Tether, largest stable coin provider in the world. Well, they've been backing up a truck on gold. And last time I read, they own 120 tons of gold that they bought in 2025. So, it's interesting to see these non-traditional buyers coming into the gold space. They're also buying royalty companies. They have positions, I believe, in two or three different names. The other thing I I thought was quite interesting, I'm sure you saw this, but Mike Wilson, who's the chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, he took his waiting traditional portfolio waiting from 6040 to 60 2020. Yeah. >> Recommending 20% a 20% waiting in gold. >> That is an intellectual honor statement the guy made. I mean to break the old orthodoxy and at least admit that real money should be part of your assets. Uh his ratio is wrong, but that's fine. The fact that he admitted that it should be a large component of a normal portfolio is is a great statement and it's an admission on his part that some something's wrong. Okay. And you know, Jamie Diamond, you know, has said a couple months ago, we we can't keep doing this government debt problem in relation to GDP. You can't keep playing that game. It finally you're going to run to a point where you got a crisis. And I'm thinking when you look at the T- bonds, which anybody in gold now should be focused on because that T-bond market if it cracks and the recent buying of it only has stabilized it and it it somehow cracks through the structural supports we see on momentum. That could cause a mini panic and you can't take that. If that yield chart pops through that shield, that that ceiling of highs we've had for the last three years, people are going to say they're going to pull their hair out and all kinds of assumptions based on stability will go out the window, including stock market or especially commercial real estate debt. We know commercial real estate is up to here and they can't it's longdated debt. They can't take that. The Fed knows it. uh they don't want to talk about it specifically, but that's the kind of sideline ambush that could really undercut all kinds of assumptions, hopes, and generate fears which creates change. So the shift that we've seen in the spread relation between real money in the stock market, which just broke out in October, gold or silver even broke out versus the stock market or gold miners broke out. It's saying something. It says some money's moving over there enough to break out of a massive decadewide base. >> The last time we spoke, you expressed concern within Bitcoin. Okay. And at that time, I believe Bitcoin was trading around 116 and you said if it goes below 107, be very concerned. And of course, now here we are below 90,000 bucks. Uh it moves around so much. But this could be another area of concern here in the next few months if it keeps going lower because we have so many of these companies. They call them uh Bitcoin treasury companies, but Micro Strategy being the biggest. >> Uh I think it's [clears throat] down 40% on the year. Can't remember. But anyhow, maybe you can just talk about that. Where do you see Bitcoin going? >> Now, we've been negative on Bitcoin because of the long-term momentum trend structures that we maintain and monitor. Uh you don't see it on the price chart, but we could tell when you went up and made that high 120, what was it? 123, 126, something like that. Uh literally several months ago. Uh when it rolled back over, got back under 110. We believe started to blow on momentum charts, major floors that go back three years. Not on the price chart. Price chart just look, oh, it's just another downturn. But on our long-term momentum, it was blowing literally a floor that any child with a crayon could plot. Okay? And when you did, you puked. We get down to low 80s. Okay. Since then, we've lived in a range, and we may live in that range for another month or so. Wouldn't surprise us. Same with the stock market. We may not see a sharp drop there for a while. Maybe a couple months. But I think the top is in for Bitcoin. And I think our first target is 60,000. Well, that's a wipeout. That's more than 50% off the high. Uh it's not going to go there right away. I think it could be, you know, maybe mid year we'll see that. But in the next decline, that's where you're going. And right now, all we're seeing is this repeated buying that is spinning its wheels. It's not going anywhere. You you rally at 10,000 bucks and it comes back. You get the point. Uh but the real next break is the one that's going to be very painful cuz that's going to take out all the gains of anybody who bought even three years ago. you know, not just the recent buyers who got really hooked, but you're going to wipe out so many of the longs, whether they're using ETFs or companies and so forth. And there's also, as you pointed out, there's a lot of companies that aren't involved in Bitcoin before, and suddenly they're involved in crypto, like even Visa has accepted crypto, you know, or or Bitcoin. Uh, so a lot of interfacing there that is no longer is it just Bitcoin doing something. Bitcoin's had major collapses before bare markets, but it didn't matter. But now Bitcoin is so intertwined, even the president's family. Okay. Uh it it will jar loose things that didn't happen before, therefore impact the financial sector. So that's why Bitcoin is somewhat important right now. >> I just want to clarify a few of your your price points uh on Bitcoin. So the the all-time high is 125. So right now we've been hanging around this call it 85 to $90,000 range. Do you think we're just consolidating now? We're going to have a move up to we're going to test that 125 high again. >> No, I don't think so. I think you rally high uh you know in the low 190 low 90s and in the low 80s where the range has been for a couple months. I look at a weekly chart just like this. Uh it'll continue to hover. Maybe you nip out that recent rally high. I don't care. But it's mainly consolidation in the middle of a collapse. In other words, rather than going a full crash from point A to B, you're going halfway there and you're congesting. And I think the rally, which is futile so far, might continue that way for another month or so before you finally decide that uh it's been a waste of time. It isn't working. The rallies come, they go. in which case the guys who've been buying this will realize this ain't working. Uh and when you slip back down through those recent lows at some point I think that the next wave of panic will set in that may be coordinated with a stock market break. So I I our suspicion right now is to give the benefit of the doubt to the what we think is a topping stock market. It's been topping since January despite the fact we made new highs. It didn't matter. the momentum has been topping just like 20207. It was a laborious one-yearwide process. Uh but Bitcoin has been pretty much in sync with the NASDAQ 100 for example. Now recently it's dropped a lot more. The NASDAQ hasn't made new highs by the way lately if you'll notice that uh well the S&P did. But so Bitcoin had this large percent drop when NASDAQ didn't. It wouldn't surprise us to see the next drop in Bitcoin also have coincident decline with the stock market. But again, I think that might be something that's pushed off until we get well into the next quarter. Yes. And here's the other interesting thing about the NASDAQ right now. A lot of these what's really driven the growth in 2025 was it was all AI, Nvidia, Open AI. Um, >> you know, you look at some of these names. Uh, Nvidia, it's still up on the year, but it's down quite a bit from its high, which was in October. Microsoft, same sort of thing. They own 25 or 27% of Open AI. So, there's big exposure there. Oracle, I find very interesting. They're another one of these uh hyperscalers have been spending billions of dollars on on data centers, and it's down 40% from its peak. still up on the year barely, but >> yeah, the leaders. Yeah. >> You know, here's the other thing like the I see a lot of similarities between the tech bubble and vendor financing and all this financing that's going on now with these hyperscalers. >> Yep. Yep. Yep. >> So that that here's the >> back in 2000 a similar thing happened dot with the dot com. It led the bull market in the latter phase. AI led the latter phase of this stock bull market. It didn't lead the early phase or the middle. There's the latter part where suddenly Nvidia went parabolic and so forth. So it was the leader in the last quarter of the bull market that's been going on since 2009. Okay. Uh but if you run spread charts, relative performance charts, suddenly now everybody's cheering the fact that some backwater sectors are holding up better than AI. They said, "Oh, it's just rotation." Yeah. When that occurred in 2000, remember we put out a sell signal in January 2000 on the S&P and it dropped into February, went up into March, made a new high, dropped back, came into August, made a new high monthly close, oh like 10% or higher than the January level. But basically a process, but during that sideways process in the S&P, the NASDAQ 100 was deteriorating on a relative basis. the spread the relative performance chart of NASDAQ versus S&P is doing this as you're you're just identified via the action of these AI stocks. That was the real tip as to when the real break occurred which started in late 2000. That's when the spread chart of NASDAQ versus S&P really started to break structure. We have a same type of situation now underway where the leadership is no longer leading. No, it's not collapsing, but it's just sort of not doing what it's supposed to do. And that's the key element to drive the market down. So, when those spread charts break down, NASDAQ versus S&P, and they have structures that you could plot on a chart, when they break down, that's when the hell breaks loose in the stock market. And this so-called diversification that everybody's cheering, we won't be cheering it anymore. >> And so, you see this happening in Q1, Q2? Yeah, I think this is this is unwinding and I think it's the start of the next leg. The next leg will not be comfortable and that's when that spread relationship between gold and the S&P will really express itself even more so with not only gold going up further but the stock market actually coming down. Uh and that spread chart has a long way to go and it is a fresh breakout of an 11-year wide base. You don't go up for a month or two and say, "Oh, that was it." Uh-uh. You just broke out. That spread relationship's going to persist for a couple years at least, and God knows where gold is going to be at during that process. >> So, I'm really going to put you on the spot now, Michael. >> Okay, good. >> So, what So, if we look out a year from now, uh, late December 2026, where do you see the S&P? >> I don't know except to say that prior, it's not really that important. It's more important that the asset class shifts. Yeah, the stock market is a vulnerable component of this, but it's not the only one. This isn't just a.com break. This is stock market. US government debt market. We didn't have a gut government debt market crisis in 2007. We had mortgages in 2000. We had the dot top. It was focused primarily on the tech. You know, S&P dropped 50% in the next couple years. 2002 low. NASDAQ went down 82%. Almost a full wipeout. So, but this time we've got other components. We've got a dollar breaking a massive decade long uptrend on it on it on its annual momentum. We've got the T- bonds sick as hell. I mean, you can't afford another drop in the T-bonds. People will rip their heads off because they've got long-term debt. The Fed will will go panic. In which case, all the assumptions about normality, not just of the stock market, but of every other asset category out the window. and they do so with speed. So, I don't know where the stock market's going to be. >> Now, there's one thing that I think is going to make 2026 different. I want to uh push back on what you're saying here. We have uh midterms coming up. Okay. And in my mind, the government, this is true of all governments, doesn't matter what country you're in, but they're going to do anything and everything they can to stay in power, right? To make sure seats. And so they're going to be pulling out all the stops >> just to keep this economy going, to keep the stock market going. >> What do you say to that? >> Uh it's not going to work. Uh the both parties I see a future not just based on market movements, but fundamental underlying issues, governments, government debt, uh political stability, things like that where notions of normality will go out the window. Not just market normalities, not just assumptions about is government debt even stable, but we have a two-party system for decades now. You know, uh, one takes power, they exist for another eight years or so, but the policies really don't change that much. We still the debt grows and grows. You know, may may go to this component or that component. It's still a rising debt situation. U, the Democrat party, we know, is fractured badly. They don't know whether to go moderate or go radical left. And who knows, maybe they'll split and go both ways. Oh. Uh, the Republican party is totally fractured now. The old Goldwaterits, the Reaganites, the conservative intellectual base of the GOP, they're gone. A lot of them are leaving the party. You know, they're they're running for local office and abandoning their congressional seats. I've read this recently that the number they're not running again and going to local or going to business or something. Uh, they're leaving. They don't like what's going on. They don't like what Trump's done in terms of global interventions and so forth. Uh or in his desire to print money, which is hardly a conservative free market approach to an economy, printing money. That's what the left used to do. Now Trump wants to do it. So even the free marketers and the GOP are saying, "Hey, this isn't my party." So expect the GOP to fracture. Well, if both parties fracture, then neither party can get a majority. I mean, you know, if the if you total sum popularity of the Democrat party is 25 or 30% and the same for the G, neither one has a majority, you'll suddenly have the rise of of other maybe minority parties that might actually rival them in terms of gathering a percent of vote, radical left, uh, old GOP types. I don't know. But don't be surprised by that sort of fragmentation, which means this election coming up isn't just a shift back to the Democrats because I don't think the Democrats quite know how to do that. Do we go left to get that vote? Do we go moderate? Try to replicate some of Trump's things. You know, they're split. So, expect total chaos in that arena, too. So, anything you think is going to just shift to another norm again, uh-uh, it could be totally different than you expect. So, get somewhere where you think it's safe. >> And you know what that you know what that is? Okay. Uh, we know what that is. >> Yeah. One thing I would say, so as you know, I'm in Toronto, Canada, and we have a multi-party system here, and I think what do we got? Four or five parties. One of them is the Green [clears throat] Party. They only have like one seat in parliament. They're useless. Why we allow this is beyond me. And then we have uh two other parties. What are >> the NDP which is socialist far left. Okay. But what happens is with these parties, they basically split the vote. And right now the Liberals, they've had minority governments for the last three elections. Okay. So they can't get anything done. They have to do these side deals with the NDP or >> that that other party in Quebec. So um >> well we've had this normality for a super long human lifetime. Okay. What if it doesn't cons persist anymore? Then everybody's notion of norms are gone. My portfolio is not acted well. Why? Uh oil price just exploded. Why? Uh commodity prices continue up. Uh my wife just lost her job. I've got to go work at Walmart. You know, you get the point. All these things start to happen and cascade at once and I think we're literally right around the corner and I think that the monetary medals know what's under what surf they're riding. Okay. You mentioned something earlier I just want to ask you about and that's leadership and so in the past few years it's been tech let's just say the MEG >> seven >> and that's not the case now. They're starting they're starting to come under pressure. Where who becomes the new leader? >> What sector >> in the If you want to invest in the stock market, we strongly suggest if you're not into gold and gold miners, okay, they've already launched significantly and they got a long way to go, but you're you're chasing something. The commodity complex, the broad commodity complex measured by Bloomberg in our assessment is begun its second major upwave. We know what will fuel it. One, they're cheap. And two, they're being funded because when they print the money, it goes somewhere. And if people don't like the stock market, they put it where right now I would be seriously considering oil sector stocks, agricultural related stocks, base metal mining stocks, basic commodity essential companies. Uh there are ETFs on that, but you could also pick we we go through a lot of the symbols that we happen to like. uh but I think that is a a ground level point of entry in the stock market and it does not correlate well to the stock market meaning if you get a bare market don't expect them to go down because a lot of the up market they didn't go up so they're non-correlated and they look like a cheap safe and a good investment grade place to be meaning for several years not just a trade so that's what I'd be looking at >> and so your message to somebody like there's a lot of people out there that still are not aware of what's happening in uh precious metals. They're too caught up in AI and you know open AI and all this other stuff. What's your message to those people? And they're also they're being scared about silver for example. You know all the I've noticed on the financial TV channels when silver has a good solid upday they hardly mention it. When it has a big down day they all mention it and you hear this chorus about it's no good. It's topped. uh sell silver, buy gold, which is totally wrong. The spread says the opp total opposite and it just broke out. Uh you hear all the negativity on every drop. So that the if you're a contrarian, you know that the guy who's done best over the last year, especially who's bought every single panic sell off in silver is doing far better than anybody else in the world. And that's going to continue. Now, there'll be a point at which finally the public says, "Golly, I missed it. I got to have it." And of course, silver at that point might be 150 to $200 and then you'll have this wave come in and it takes up to 400 or something. Uh, which I fully expect, but right now there's still rampant skepticism about the monetary metals and they don't seem to appreciate that massive fundamental wave that's driving them that we've talked about. So that's where I'd say you got to screw your head on and reorient yourself now if you want to enjoy the next few years and benefit from it. And so any pullback if we see a nice 20 30% pullback in gold or silver I think in silver I think you should you should consider any upturn you see now in silver for example went down a punch below 70 today took out a bunch of little sell stops of people who've been buying above 70 who were smart no problem. Uh you you get back up anywhere near approach 80 again they're gonna blow your head off. >> Well that's great. Okay. Well, listen, this has been a great discussion as always and I I want to let our viewers know um we are organizing a virtual gold conference later in January. We're also going to do one focused on silver. Uh in terms of the gold one, we have a number of major gold players showing up. We got um Agniko, Santara, Oiscoco, a number of other players. Um and and so just keep an eye on my uh YouTube channel, Blur Street Capital. Follow me on Twitter or also on LinkedIn. I do a lot of posting there and you can be kept up to date. Michael is going to be speaking uh on both gold and also silver so you can get recent updates here in the next two to three weeks. And Michael, if somebody would like to check out you and look at your research in more detail, where can they go? >> Oliver MSA for momentum structural analysis. OliverMsa.com. Take some time. We have an unorthodox technical methodology. We explained it fairly well. Request some sample reports. >> And uh once again, I want to thank you for showing up on New Year's Day. And um I'm going to have a link below in the show notes. So if anybody wants to check out your website, they can check it out there. Michael, once again, thank you and happy new year. >> Thank you, James. You too. [music]