Market Insights: The podcast discussed the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting, highlighting its historical significance as a venue for signaling monetary policy changes, with speculation about potential rate cuts and their implications for the market.
Economic Outlook: There was a focus on the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of employment and inflation, with current tensions due to worsening labor markets and inflation concerns, making future rate decisions critical.
Company Discussions: United Health was a focal point, with Berkshire Hathaway and David Tepper buying shares, indicating confidence in the company's long-term value despite recent stock declines.
Investment Themes: The rise of AI-focused ETFs was highlighted, with significant inflows demonstrating strong investor interest in AI as a growth theme, despite concerns about market saturation.
Sector Trends: The podcast noted the significant growth in infrastructure and technology sector ETFs, with Vanguard's VGT reaching over $100 billion in AUM, reflecting advisor strategies to overweight tech exposure.
IPO Activity: Recent IPOs like Bullish and Sigma were discussed, emphasizing the volatility and challenges in accurately pricing new issues in the current market environment.
Key Takeaways: The episode underscored the importance of understanding macroeconomic signals, sector trends, and company fundamentals in navigating investment decisions, especially in a dynamic market landscape.
Transcript
[Music] Oh my god, you guys >> look alive. >> I am. No, I'm furiously closing out tabs. I had way too much open which would affect my resolution and I want people to get the full effect. Hey, it's uh 5:00 on a Tuesday. We are here with an all new edition of What are your thoughts? For those of you checking out the show for the first time, his name is Michael Batnik. My name is Josh Brown. And each week we gather together here with a few thousand of our uh loyal live pounders and talk about all the biggest developments in the markets, in the economy. and we have an absolute blast doing it. So, can I say something for joining us? >> Your his name is my name is. That's a very 80s movie theme. >> It's like weird science. >> You know what I mean? >> Bad though. >> No, I'm just No, I love it. It's retro. >> I thought it came off well. >> Yeah, I love it. >> Let's say hi to some of the viewers and then we'll get to our sponsor. Tea Wa is here. Just Dave Ronald Aramenta. Matt Steic says, "Batnick button-down." That's right. Very rare. >> Almost down. I'm wearing a button down. You're right. You're right. >> Akbar Muhammad likes the uh the big the big pony polo shirt. Thank you. Vincent Aguilar is here. Rose is here. Hello. Um Lawrence Rapone. Two brothers say what's up. What's up? All right. All the uh all the pounders are here tonight and uh we love you guys for coming out for the live on YouTube. And uh as I like to say, the chat is already lit. Tonight's show is brought to you by Betterment Advisor Ser Services >> Solutions. Betterment Advisor Solutions. If you happen to be thinking, there's got to be a better way to grow my RAIA, you're not alone. With Betterment Advisor Solutions, we do the heavy lifting so you can focus on what matters most your clients. From improved service that makes asset transitions smoother to fast paper free onboarding that delights clients on day one. We've built a digital first platform designed to stream your operations and make life easier. Now, if you're thinking, "Wow, they take the paper out of paperwork." Then you'd be right. Grow your RA your way at Betterment Advisor Solutions. >> Learn more at betterment.com/advisors. Investing involves risk performance not guaranteed. Okay. Um we have an action-packed show. Um, there's all kinds of Oh, who could it be? Look who's here. You guys, we are in the presence of of absolute greatness. Neil Dada has r the doorbell. >> Yeah, literally. >> Hi guys. Neil, thank you so much for uh stopping by and perfect timing because starting on Friday is another uh Jackson Hole August weekend and this is the last one we think for uh Jay Powell. What do you think? >> Uh I think that's about the safest bet you can make. It's going to be his last. >> Neil, you are you a Jackson Hole truther? And I don't even know what that means, but are you? Well, I I think that uh what what does So, what does that mean? >> Like, does he believe that it it exists? >> I mean, I certainly believe that it exists. I think if if I had to say what it would mean, it's like that you're going to get some big signal out of it, right? I mean, because this dates back to like the uh the Bernanki era, right, when he basically green lit QE2, if you remember, at Jackson Hole. And really, ever since then, everyone's always kind of looked at Jackson Hole for some kind of signal. I mean, if you remember last year, um, you know, Powell basically green lit a September rate cut. We didn't really know whether it was going to be 25 or 50, but he green lit a cut. He said the time to adjust policy was now. Um, so, you know, it kind of comes and it goes. I mean, there's there are times when there's not really much news that comes out of Jackson Hole, and there's times when there's lots of news that comes out of Jackson Hole. So, uh, you know, we'll see which uh which one this will be. >> Uh, last year the speech was 15 minutes long. Baron's uh has a piece uh he's calling they're calling this year um Powell's last stand. Like this is his last chance to cement his legacy is the way that they're taking it. Like um basically he might end up using this as as like a defense of the independence of the Fed. Might be like a whole thing about that. Who who really knows? Um, but last year when when he green lit the uh the rate cut, I don't think people thought, "Okay, we'll do one and done." But that's how it ended up being because the economic data just I guess in his eyes didn't justify more. So even if he does signal that they're ready to cut rates in September, nobody should take that to mean anything beyond September. Well, I mean, last year they went they green lit the September cut, then they ended up doing 100 basis points worth of cuts for the year, right? They went 50 in September and then they went 25 in each of the remaining two meetings. >> Yeah. >> You know, it's interesting like listening looking at that Baron's article and like what is what is his legacy? because obviously they're framing it in a way of like okay he's like this like last line of defense against Trump and the Fed's independence but and like inflation fighting and so forth and leaning against tariffs but let's not forget like before co his legacy was supposed to be the guy that had this inclusive labor market remember that I mean basically bringing people in at the margins of the workforce and sort of uh you know I guess I can say this as one like leave no minority unemployed kind of thing, right? I mean, so um that I mean it was basically about running the labor markets hotter uh and sort of you know inflation expectations were anchored and so the Fed had more room to kind of let the labor markets run hot. That's what his legacy was going to be before. >> What do you think it is? What do you think his legacy is as the as the chapter is closed on see Josh as the chapter closes on uh on Jerome Powell? What do you think the legacy is going to be? >> Um, I I mean I think if you give it enough time, I think his legacy will be one of, you know, the I mean, the Fed basically delivered reasonably good economic outcomes in in pretty trying times. That's that that'll be his legacy. I mean, you know, and part of this was stuff that Governor Waller talked about before, which is, you know, I mean, how do you get a soft landing? And uh you know the Fed leaned into this idea that you could you could essentially trim uh job openings without seeing much of an increase in unemployment. And you know by and large that bet was was a a successful one. And if you look at I mean you have to grade on a curve right like could the >> dude he was coaching he was coaching the 2017 Warriors. >> Um you have to grade on a curve. That's kind of what I believe. And so, you know, if you grade on a curve, I think, you know, the Fed did reasonably well over this period. >> Um, all right. So, zooming in on where we are today, what do you think where do you think rates should be and what do you think he's going to tell the world in uh a few days? Um, well, I think that he's going to try to give us some meat around the bones of how they kind of think about both sides of their of their mandate, right? Like they have one of employment and they have inflation. And the the tension right now is that, you know, the labor markets are getting worse, but they think inflation might be getting worse, too. And so, how they resolve that tension is going to be very important. Now, Powell has a really tough job because this isn't like last year. Like back then, everyone was on board for rate cuts, right? It was really just around the timing of when they would do it that year. It wasn't whether they would do it or not. That's not the case this year, right? Right now, it's like a it's like a biodal distribution. You have a bunch of people that think they should cut twice and you have a bunch of people that don't think they should cut at all. And so, it's really his job to kind of find a middle ground. Um and that's that's why um you know Bloomberg has this article wager for half point rate reduction faces test of Powell remarks like I don't think he can make a strong signal like that at this at Jackson Hole. Like there's no way you can do that before the meeting because you have so many people that are out there telling you and they're still out there squawking. I mean you had a bunch of you know regional Fed presidents and so forth coming out and um and talking about this. There's no way to frontr run that meeting and kind of lay down the um you know the pipe for a for for a big upfront move. I mean >> tell tell me if this is a reasonable take. The Fed cannot control tariffs and input prices. The Fed cannot control the labor market, particularly entry- level jobs that are getting smoked. But what they can control and what they have absolutely wrecked a huge piece of the economy is the housing market. The housing market is all sorts of effed up and for that alone rates should be at least 50 basis points lower. Is that reasonable or is that ridiculous or somewhere in between? Well, I think I mean I would argue that the Fed does have a little bit more. I mean, over the long run, the Fed doesn't have control over the unemployment rate obviously, but you know, I think there are times where if you provide some lift to the economy by lowering interest rates, you probably will generate some demand for labor. >> Do you think they will today? Do you think that that environment exists today? >> Sure. I mean, if you like, for example, you just mentioned housing, right? I mean, I think I agree with you, by the way, on housing. I think housing is an absolute mess and we saw more evidence of that today, right? Right. I mean, you have, you know, basically the main asset that's used as collateral in the banking system deflating in price for the last 5 months. That was out from Zillow this morning. Uh, and then, you know, look at building permits today. Building permits hit another cycle low. Um, and uh, you know, I mean, builder sentiment was weak. So, we had a raft of housing data this week that were all sort of not great. And um so I would tend to agree that if you have a housing focused view that it kind of makes it pretty obvious that you should be cutting. But at the same token, I mean this is also probably one reason why builders are probably on the verge of cutting construction workers, right? I mean they they just they need to rationalize their building model relative to what they're what they're selling. Um so that means cutting costs, which means cutting people. >> Oh, who could it be? >> You have no idea. You have no idea what just happened. There there's like a >> power. >> No, there's like a Wi-Fi setup that just crashed off the wall onto the floor. >> We're going to blame that. We're going to blame Hurricane Aaron. >> Fed's got to cut. But well, Josh, Josh, welcome back. But Neil, so for people that are like, "No, it's all good for people that are that are looking around and saying the S&P is at an all-time high. Chimath is launching a spa. There is speculation in the streets and in the sheets. How could they cut rates?" Isn't that such a red herring? Like, does that matter at all to the conversation, the inputs that >> You don't need to take my word for it. You don't need to take my word. You have a very good analyst in your own shop that made that very precise that that argument. >> So, shout out. Yeah, Kelly made that argument and I obviously I agree with her. I mean, you know, look, I mean, you usually at the time of the look at the time of the rate cuts you the markets are not that far from their highs. That's also true, by the way, of like at the time, if you look historically, of like the first negative jobs number, the stock market's not too far from its highs. So, I think what's important here is like if you're the Fed, do you care about financial market conditions or do you care about financial conditions in the real economy? Like if financial conditions are this loose, why is it so difficult to buy a home? Why is I mean you look at the Fed's own uh loan officer survey lending standards for CNI loans, CR loans, multif family residential loans, they're all still tightening. Um different parts of the consumer credit space are also tightening. So just because financial market conditions are loose doesn't necessarily mean that financial conditions in the real economy are as well. All right, last thing for me as we go into the week. There is a um I think a misunderstanding or misexpect. I don't know what I'm looking for. People tend to think that Jackson is a market moving event and unfortunately it was in 2022 when we were at future proof. That was a lot of fun. Not but bespoke has this chart showing how the market has reacted during these weeks and it's sort of nothing with nothing. I mean maybe a little bit elevated, a few outliers, but overall eh well this goes back to the point that I that I made earlier is that there are times when it's a huge signal for what's about to happen and there there are times when it's just sort of an academic discussion among friends about you know things they're looking at in the future and you know this time it might be a little bit of both right I mean the Fed's going to talk up their framework review right I remember back a few years ago they had this flexible average inflation targeting thing that they put in place and that lasted all of you know about few weeks because of COVID but um you know so this is sort of you know you're going to have a little bit on the near- term and I think a lot on you know how the Fed is thinking about how they're going to deal with supply shocks in the future. My my only question is why don't you get invited to Jackson Hole or have you been and you've opted not to go because it would be much harder for you to analyze this if you became part of the the show itself. >> I think um I think the primary reason why I'm not invited is because I don't have three letters after my name P. >> Is it is it as simple as that? >> No, I mean I don't I mean it's not I you know look I think some of the bank economists have in the past gotten invited. Um but really this is um you know it's it's it's central bankers talking amongst themselves. Um that that's kind of what and presenting their research and you know I mean that's that's that's largely what it's been about. The I think I think the Chicago Fed or or the Booth School at the University of Chicago does a nice monetary policy forum. I'd like to be invited to that one day. That'd be cool. But uh not expecting an invitation uh to Jackson Hole anytime soon. Well, if you if you if you do get invited, your yours will be the commentary I most look forward to coming out of that coming out of that event. Um, all right, Neil, thank you for bearing with us. I'm sorry I dipped out for most of that. I will be re-watching it later. Uh, technical difficulties, but awesome to see you and uh enjoy your end of summer vacation. >> Thanks, Josh. Bye, Michael. >> Later. >> All right, we're back. You good? >> Yeah. No, I'm great. You got to take us to the next topic. I'm attempting to get my Wi-Fi back up, but it's uh I got the sound that this made when it all came crashing down. >> All right, we're talking uh this is good timing because a couple of weeks ago, was it last week actually? You and I played the game maybe two two weeks ago. It was two weeks ago. Which falling stock would you most want to buy? And I believe >> the falling knife game. We love that game. >> I believe we landed on United Health. Uh maybe my memor is faulty, but either way, either way, there was news last week because the 13Fs came out and a lot of people bought this knife. Uh Bergkshire included. So they bought more than 5 million shares throughout the quarter. We don't have an average price. Uh they spent one Oh, no. Yeah, my bad. We do have an average price. I could back into it, but I didn't do that, so apologies. They bought 5 million shares for $1.6 billion. Chat, what did they buy it at? Help us out. Um it is chart on, please. Uh it is their 18th largest holding. So they've got a $ 1.6 billion position out of call it uh 200 I don't know the market's up since then $280 billion portfolio. >> Tiny. >> Yeah. >> Tiny. Um but we All right. So I think it's important to point out that uh a lot of times they will start out buying something and they're nowhere near finished. They might never buy it again. they might sell it next quarter. They might spend two years adding to it. Every time they report, every time they file a 13F, they might add to it. Um, so this is one of those things where it's like too early to really like assign a uh like a a hard and fast decision on what they're doing here. Um, but it is classic. It is classic Buffett. I don't know if this is one of his picks or one of the lieutenants. I would imagine they're involved in the conversation, the young guys, because he's retired as of the end of this year. Um, but what uh $25 billion in earnings at a $250 billion market cap, like this is like what they do. So, >> so I want to I want to uh I forgot to include I didn't include this in the image because it was tough to see, but uh I I clipped that from Slick Chart, so shout out to them. All right, it's the math. I used this thing. remember this. Uh $320. That is the price, the average price that they were in at. United Health traded as low as $235. So, oh my god, they thought they were getting a bargain and maybe they did, but they still had to sit through a nasty draw down. And mind you, the price today. So, they popped on the news obviously. Uh it wouldn't take much for this rubber band, which is stretched all the way down to pop a little bit. The stock is still at uh $34. So, still a little bit underwater, but uh yeah. No, listen, United Health is not a company that Bergkshire could buy. It's a gigantic company, and who knows what their intentions are, but they're not day trading this thing. They're not looking for a quick, you know, five 10% pop. Let's sell. >> I agree with that take. And I would also point out it's even more notable that David Teraloosa was also buying it at the same time. And I'm sorry, I don't know if there are historical examples of stocks where they got cut Dow stock cut in half with both David Pepper and Warren Buffett buying it at the same time. But like I have to believe that's going to have a good outcome >> for the people that >> now a lot of the people that I do TV with, they were long the stock already and you know they were excited because in many cases they owned the thing from 600. They rode this thing down from 600 to 270. They averaged down the whole way down. They defended it. And now like Buffett coming in in the low 300s, I feel like it's a get out of jail free card. >> It's validation for the you know, >> it's validation that like see there is value here. Unfortunately, if you loved it at 600, it might be it might be a minute before your investors care, but um at least you save a little bit of face on TV. >> Um the stock. Here were some other moves. Uh they took a small stake in steel manufacturer Newor, uh Lamar Advertising, uh security firm Allegian. They got back into homebuilders. I think that's notable. You and I are in that corner. Uh they bought Lenar and Dr. Horton and uh they did some trimming and Bank American Apple. >> He's got a long history of being in and out of the home building and the the housing related stocks. thought it was really interesting that Home Depot missed on the top line and the bottom line and the stock traded higher. >> Yeah, >> that actually helped the that actually helped the Dow buck the the bigger trend of of down stocks. Home Depot is a $400 uh name. And I know you don't care about dollars, but the Dow does. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> And uh that United Health last week and Home Depot this week, those are two Picksave uh stocks with high dollar share prices that um helped the uh helped the Dow 30. >> Oh [ __ ] Uh so, oh [ __ ] was that a misprint? My bad. Um I just got excited about a stock that was a the fat finger trade, I suppose. All right. Anyway, um, Home Depot is a stock that I own and I didn't read the report yet today, but obviously investors don't care about what happened last quarter. >> Nope. >> Because it's not relevant. All that they care about is what is the next Fed chairman >> and rates coming down and and that that really is it. So, John, can we throw this chart up? I thought this is interesting. Um, I saw I couldn't find it. I saw Robert Armstrong of the FT did a post on Birkshshire versus property and casualty companies and I couldn't find it so I recreated it. Here's a chart people have talked about prior to I guess the last couple of years over the last like remember there was a time not too long ago over the last one year, five year, 10 year, 15, 20 years Bergkshire had underperformed the market. >> Yes. >> Not anymore. Not anymore. So the the purple line is Birkshshire. The blue line is the S&P and the orange line is I guess what you would bucket them into. Although I know they're not really a property and casualty company, but certainly they are a giant insurance company and however you slice it. I mean they've kicked ass. The stock has worked every which way. >> Yeah. Um and what's so cra and what's so crazy about it is that this the outperformance is persisting through um this AI uh moment and the cloud computing era and Apple obviously helped them a lot but then like insurance business was great last year like uh premiums were high not a lot of underwriters were out in the market and and uh there weren't any massive catastrophes. there was a the wildfire uh episode, but like that was a great year for example for all the uh PNC insurers and that's a huge part of Bergkshire's business. Um I know Geico is doing really well and then the railroad was doing really well. So like they there just so many different ways to make money as a Bergkshire shareholder. Um the exposure to financials um that they've largely taken off by now, but they had on. Um so it's like uh I don't know. I hate to I shudder to refer to any individual company stock as an allseason uh kind of stock, but if ever there were one, I really feel like it's Bergkshire. Even when people are disappointed with it, >> all that usually means is that it went up slower than some other index, >> you know. So, it's it's definitely it's definitely uh having another moment again this year, though. I agree. Last thing before we move on to Josh's topic, uh, if he comes back, Josh, come back. Is >> is Michael Bur. Credit to him. This guy has a sense of humor. So, his 13F came out and who knows what positions he still has on, but he famously got mocked and ridiculed on this show as well as as well as others for just tweeting sell, which is a fairly irresponsible thing to do, especially when it doesn't work. If it worked, yeah, hindsight is 2020. we probably would have spoken differently, >> but we did >> he'd be on the cover of like every everything, >> but anyway, he the guy's got his sense of humor. He tweeted by exclamation point with all the activity that he did and you know, whatever. Credit to him. Um, he was getting in there and uh he's got some positions that he probably made a lot of money on. Although, are those Lulu calls? That doesn't look that doesn't look like that aged well, but uh but whatever. He's, you know, he's laughing at himself, so appreciate that. >> All right. What? So, I can't I can't see what I wanted to discuss next. So, just tell me what it is. Prompt. Give me a little prompt. >> Chart on. So, we're talking uh that there are now 30 AI ETFs. Our Fred Todd Sone did some work here. So, Josh, can you see what we're looking at? If not, I'll I'll talk through it and then you could comment. >> Yeah. No, no, I can. And I love this because it's such a reminder. It's such a powerful reminder that sometimes you can have a theme that's so popular that everyone knows it's going to work and like the knee-jerk contrarian in people is to be like sell it. Um but like then it just keeps on working and for me that's the story of 23 24 and now the first eight months of 25. Yep. >> AI has been the obvious growth theme for the entirety of the last two and a half years to the point where there are 20 different pure play ETFs. They're all raising money. They're all buying the same stocks. And then uh also in Todd's work, there's another 10 ETFs that are like AI infrastructure and they're buying the utilities and the and the and the natural gas transmission companies. And it it's like obvious to everyone and also still a great investment. Not everything has to be mysterious, I think, is my point. Not everything has to be like, "Oh, this is so popular. I'm going to go the other way." It it's it's really important to fight that instinct because the herd is not always wrong. They're wrong at the end. They're wrong at the beginning. In the middle, the herd is the herd because whatever they're doing is working. What are your thoughts? So, it's funny. Ben and I spoke about that exactly today about people wanted to make money the hard way by being contrarian. Um, but yeah, you're right. And I would argue that the obvious trade and again, hindsight, but but even still, was the fang stocks. That acronym I think was born in 2017. And there's been people that have been fighting this for going on eight years. By the way, I didn't even know that IFR was a thing. John, throw that chart up, please. So, IFRA is the eyesshares infrastructure uh US infrastructure ETF and flows are coming in not surprisingly at all. And let me tell you, I'm looking at the top 10 holdings and it's 1, two, three, four. Sorry for counting on air. There's four industrials and six utilities. The largest the largest uh stocks are CSX, Nor Southern. Huh. Primorus, which is not a stock that I known. Everg. In fact, you know what? I don't know any of these names if I'm being honest. Hawaiian Electric, Bowman Consulting. >> So, um, so Sean and Chart offer sector. So, Sean and I did a write up last, I think it was last week or the week before. First of all, our best stocks in the market list is loaded with utilities and we're trying to write about them individually cuz nobody knows anything about any of these companies. And one of the most interesting ones we wrote about was Dominion, which is in Virginia. And it's like the we tal I think we did this as Make the Case uh maybe last week, but like you're talking about you're talking about uh a company where all the data centers are within their their domain. And like you talk about a an AI play, all the software, all the chips, all the GPUs, all the data centers are worthless if you don't have electricity coursing through them. Uh that and the fact that all those data centers are located um in Lowden County, Virginia of all places. And this just happens to be the regulated utility that's sitting there electrifying everything. Um it's just and that's an obviously a utility stock but like it looks incredible technically. Um it does nothing but go up because the estimates keep going up. There are so many stories like that that we don't associate with uh technology. Um but the charts are just lower left to upper right and continue to work. So why is that happening? Well, you've got 20 different ETFs that are allocated to these stocks and people are buying these ETFs every single day and uh they won't stop until they get some sort of a signal that tells them to stop. >> So, this is Eyesshar's US infrastructure ETF that I've never heard of. Ticker is if the thing has $3 billion uh in assets and needless to say, it didn't exist three years ago. Okay. Like it was just >> 0 to three billion in a couple years. Impressive. Josh, you had Sean make a chart on uh VGT, which is the Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund. I'm curious, why do you care about this one? >> Try and turn it on, please. >> According to Todd, this is the first sector ETF ever to break a hundred billion dollars in AUM. >> Oh, wow. The Vanguard one, huh? >> Huh? How do you like that? >> More than XLK? >> No. Wow. >> No. >> Um, and I think it's a model portfolio story. >> Oh, yeah. It's got to be. Yeah, there's another but still. >> So, this is this is what I think. I think financial advisors are trying to please their clients and they're using this as an overweight mechanism to just give them more exposure to the most obvious trade on earth. That's been the most obvious trade on earth for the last two years. As we talked about, this is such an easy way to do it. It's like, oh, just slap in 10% VGT. It's low cost. It's an index. It's Vanguard, so no one's going to yell at you. They're not going to [ __ ] it up. And you'll end up with exposure to these tech stocks that just they will not relent. Like, they go down for two weeks and then they go up even more when they recover. Like, look at semiconductor stocks. They crushed these stocks this spring and then they're now they're up like 30% from where they started. So, um I think people are using VGT as that kind of like let me shut my client the [ __ ] up overlay and it works. It's doing the job. Now you're an adviser. Look, I talked to uh Terteranova about this. Uh Joe Teranova's got a momentum and quality fund. So, he's screening for quality and he's uh screening for momentum and he's got whatever it is, 40 names, 50 names. He had advisors tell him like guys at UBS, guys at Maril Lynch, he knows these guys forever. He's been traveling around the country talking to advisers and they tell him like, "Joe, I don't know these stocks, so I use your ETF so that when my clients call up and they're like, why don't I own Palunteer?" Oh, you do here. You own in the JT. So, it's interesting like it's this is like a thing that advisers and um portfolio managers are struggling with. Um and I think the VGT breaking a 100red billion tells you all you need to know. That's advisor shutting their clients up here. Yeah. You happy? >> Here's your here's your tack overweight. I gave it to you. Okay. Can we can we talk about uh funding your grat now or you know whatever whatever you're working on with the client. So um do we have more from Todd here or that's it? >> Uh there was one >> there was one chart that we skipped over. I mean we've discussed it. The AI focus ETF inflow is going vertical. The >> listen >> the bottom pain is the the bottom pain is the inflows. I I hate to short term. Who gives a [ __ ] But it certainly feels like this might be we might be at a pause. It just it it it went everything went parabolic. Everything went vertical. The the headlines, the the it got it it's stupid. We're in silly territory. >> Did you see that? Um Palunteer just erased its entire post earnings uh uh gain >> shared that with us. >> I I shared that. That's a wild That's a Oh, you should That's a wild chart. >> So, >> that's an Empire State Building chart. >> Yeah. And and Karp and and our boy Dan, they were talking a lot of [ __ ] on the call. The stock gapped the hell up higher, shut every bear up, uh went up for a few more days, and then whoosh. I mean, listen, the the bulls have had the last laugh or they're they're enjoying themselves. Who cares? It's down 60%. It's up a gazillion percent. But, uh yeah, we'll see. All right. um >> 16. It's down 16% from the high. >> Yeah, whatever. So, >> whatever, right? They can announce one contract with like Russia tomorrow or like who the hell knows what they could announce and and get that all back >> before bears start getting salty and start flexing. It was at 66 at the April low and went to 190. It's now 155. So, we'll see. Um all right. Last week and and every week we talk about these gigantic tech stocks that are not even tech stocks. There are everything stocks. Amazon being a classic example of what even is it? How do you describe it? It does so many different things. And like a gigantic oceanliner, it's just demolishing anybody in its wake. And this week was Instacart. Now, the shares have since recovered a little bit, but what am I talking about here? Here's what I'm talking about. This is from Bloomberg. Amazon.com plans to offer same day gross uh same day grocery delivery in 2300 cities by the end of the year, more than doubling the current number and making it its latest attempt to muscle into the $1 trillion grocery industry led by of course Walmart. This is the face blower to me. Um so US shoppers spend $1 trillion annually on groceries and yet online grocery sales represent less than 20% of that. Now, it's still it's a gigantic number and there is a natural cap at some point like people want to go to the grocery store. Not everybody has Prime, not you, et but but still there's there's room there. >> Yeah. And it's not even just that there's room there. It like forces Target and Walmart to um to play defense because uh you know those stores have very very uh successfully used grocery to drive foot traffic um for people to buy other things while they're there getting their groceries. Um and it's been an amazing strategy. Um, but if Amazon starts picking off grocery customers, well, those are less trips to the store, to the physical store. Um, I don't know that Amazon's ecommerce lead is terribly powerful versus Walmart anymore. I think a lot of people just interchangeably um will order things from Walmart's e-commerce operation at this point. But Amazon going same day with things like produce and meat and eggs and the kinds of things people don't want to order and wait a day for the kinds of things like people like no I want to make this for dinner tonight or no I either I get the eggs now or I have to go to the the 7-Eleven. I I have to go to like a convenience store or a supermarket. Um oh don't worry about it Amazon will have them here by five o'clock. To me, that's behavior changing and it's a really big deal. And um you know the Maple Bear thing with Instacart, first of all, it's the worst service ever. Have you ever used it? You use Instacart? >> So, I had to on a couple of occasions. I had to like uh order some stuff cuz I was coming back from Florida and we just had nothing in our fridge and we were going to land and it was going to be all the stores would be closed or we' be too tired. So, order groceries for that. I get off the plane, I get home, and there are plastic bags sitting in front of my door waiting for me. I do like that, but like half the items that are listed in the app that they say the store has, they don't have it or they have a different flavor or the wrong size. So then you have to have this back and forth with the driver. Either you have a setting where you say to the driver, "Pick the closest thing available." >> Or the driver has to notify you. So, like, oh, you wanted uh lemon Italian ices, they only have chocolate. So, now you're having like this back and forth >> on the app, which sucks. And then they and then they screw it up anyway. And then by the time the fees are taken out and you're adding a a reasonable tip cuz like you almost feel guilty not tipping someone who just walk through a store for you, it was it's just so egregiously expensive. Half the items are wrong. the the website had it wrong and it just it's a horrendous experience. So, I'm not surprised to see um an overthe-top reaction, negative reaction for Instacart if Amazon's going to come into this business. Not that they'll do it perfectly, but they definitely can't do it worse. >> Here's another area that Amazon uh disrupted. I mean, not not Amazon per se, but just everyone. Is there a worse is there a larger melting ice cube than the linear cable ser cable services? >> So, for example, uh we got news this week that YouTube is now throwing their hat in the ring to get the rights to show the Academy Awards. Last night, uh or two nights ago, I rented It's not Blockbuster or Netflix. I rented Jurassic World Rebirth is >> the new one. >> Yeah. So anyway, I got it on Prime. I went now I'm like we're buying stuff on Prime. I mean it's everything. It is everything. >> Yeah. >> I'm sure you could say things that they don't do, but it's it does everything. >> Well, just look at look at how the cable companies and the media conglomerates are treating their linear TV assets. They can't shed them fast enough. Um, so, um, NBC, uh, Comcast, Comcast, which is NBC, is getting rid of all the news channels. They're going to bundle it into Versent, which will include CNBC. MSNBC just announced a name change. >> Yeah. What's the name? Uh, >> beyond bizarre, but um I no comment from me. Yeah. >> MS Now. >> Yeah. But then the NLW stands for news opinion world, >> which I >> I'll bet you I'll bet you $1,000 that'll change between now and the end of the year. >> Okay. I will not take that back. I will not take a bet. All right. Speaking of sign of the times and uh the the feelings of of uh or the not feelings to risk, who care who cares about risk? The bullish IPO. Let's talk about that. >> Well, my take was this. This is uh I don't have all the data in front of me, but I would just say it's billions of dollars in market cap for a company that is based in the Cayman Islands, >> which already three red flags. Not a fan. They filed an F1, not an S1, in order to go public. So an F1 is what you file when you intend to be a foreign doiciled company, but you want a listing on a US exchange. So in this case, it's the New York Stock Exchange. >> Josh, you want me to read some of these things that you put in here? Yeah, give us some of the numbers. >> All right, so uh according to the F1, uh for the period ending in March 31st, 2025, it generated 46.8 million in total revenue, a 22% increase over the prior year. However, it incurred a pre-tax loss of $348 million. Um earlier in March 2022, they reported annualized monthly revenue of $97 million. Uh analysts have noted that Bullish's business relies heavily on trading fees. Okay, obviously. All right, whatever. Here are the details on the IPO. They raised $1.1 billion via the sale of 30 million shares at an IPO price of $37 per share. Initial valuation $5.4 billion. Wow. Shares open trading around 90. Peaked near8 before closing around 68. >> Where did it close today? >> What's the follow through to the downside? >> What's the ticker? It's bull bl. Okay. >> Um Oh, wow. Yeah, that's not good. That's not good. Uh it closed at $58 or $59. Yeah. So, this is not this game is not for me. I think they're losing they're losing like 40 million a quarter or something. Um or or something like basically one of the problems here is that the value of their crypto assets rises and falls and there's like an accounting treatment of that that can make it seem like it's got like this erratic business which I don't really think is the case. Um but it's kind of like a mediocre brokerage. they are pitching this story where they're better for institutional clients than um Gemini or Coinbase are. I highly doubt it. >> I don't believe it. Um the the one thing that I think generated that $100 open though is Peter Teal's involvement. >> So I think he I don't think he's like got a dayto-day here. He's an he's an investor. He's an investor in a lot of things, but there's a Peter Teal connection and you know there was with uh Palunteer and people just like they were they they name associate and so it's like oh this is Peter Teal's brokerage. >> Yeah. Let me give you an alley of Josh. Um all right today quote this is a quote from somebody and you know who it is Josh. Today a company called Bullish came public. The deal was more than 20 times overs subscribed and the stock opened up for trading 143% from its offering price. Wow. The underwriters actually did their best to tamp enthusiasm. The deal was supposed to be 20.3 million shares priced between 20 to 31, but it was indeed upsized to 30 million, then priced 32 33. I would have taken that a little bit le a little bit higher, but you know what I mean. Arguably, they could have upsized it much more and made the price much higher. Josh, who was that quote from? >> That's so that's Jim Kramer and the irony is the stock that Bullish reminds me most of. All right, so I want to say this. Bullish owns Coindesk. So CoinDesk is one of the biggest media publishers in the crypto space and Bullish owns it. Um I guess they bought it during the tumult of 2022. Okay. CoinDesk is great. They do a great job. I like those guys. Um but it's basically it's a media company attached to a brokerage service. So the irony of the of Kramer commenting on it. Um, this reminds me a lot of the Street.com and I was there for the Street.com IPO. I was in the business and it came public in May of 1999, not right at the top, but like eight months before the top. And this is no fault of Kramers or anyone else's. This was just the level of enthusiasm for anything related to trading. this the street.com along with market watch were like the two first websites that were dedicated to covering the dot boom in the stock market and um the street.com was great. I was a subscriber. I almost bought the IPO. I'm glad I didn't that they upsized that deal several times um due to demand. I think it opened at like it ended up at 73 on the first day and then spent the next 25 years going to zero. Um like literally never had another bull market in that stock ever again. It was just this 25 year odyssey falling from $73 a share where it never belonged in the first place to effectively zero. Um and then I think the assets ended up just getting handed to somebody else. Um but that's what this reminds me of. But I'm not saying the businesses are identical. I'm just saying thematically. Um, we're now bringing uh Coindesk public effectively and we're saying it's a better brokerage than uh I don't know Bracken, Binance, CoinD, uh, Coinbase, Gemini, how many other Robin Hood, like come on, what what is this like the 10th the 10th largest brokerage firm in crypto attached to the street.com of the the crypto era and this thing is worth billions of dollars? Yeah. Is that what we're doing here? Is that Is that where we're going with this? So, that was my impression. I I I'm not surprised that um it was a big IPO day. I'm also not surprised that the stock is getting crowbar. >> Okay, here's what else is happening in the market in case you needed less you lest you uh forget where we are in the temperature check. Social capitalists Chimath Polyapata is launching a new spa 200 raising $250 million for the American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp. Uh and Q Capital 2020 shared the filing and uh highlighted this part for us to take a look at. Here's a quote. We believe that retail investors should only participate if A, this investment is a small part of an otherwise diversified portfolio. B, this investment is a quantum of capital. Who says quantum? They can afford to completely lose. And C, if they do lose their entire capital, they will embody the adage from President Trump that there can be quote no crying in the casino. End quote. And you know what? Okay, fine. I like this disclosure. I like it a lot. >> Yeah, I think the I I think the filing should have a [ __ ] spelling crossbones right on the cover. And you know what? Swim at your own risk. I really made a 180. First of all, I'm in the minority of people on Wall Street. I like Chimoth. I don't care. I'm not embarrassed. The guy snake charmed me the first time I met him. And I'm still I'm still hypnotized by him. I look, I I don't invest with him. I'm not putting my money into his deals. Uh his deals were mostly [ __ ] Um the in the the what is it? Hadasilia or something. I don't know. >> He was he was in the arena. Don't be a baby. >> Right. No, I I don't give a [ __ ] Like, he tried it. It didn't work. Now, there are people that think he's like deliberately scamming people. Give me a break, dude. Don't you think he would have loved it more than anything if those stocks worked out and if those companies turned into great companies? He's just not that good at it, it turns out. That's okay. Most people aren't. So, I I'm not one of these like people that like knee-jerk everything Shimath does. I have to talk [ __ ] about him. I like the guy. I think he's interesting. I don't want to invest with him. I don't like spaxs. I wrote a book where I did a whole chapter that spaxs are are poison. I explained all the reasons why all the [ __ ] up incentives um and and the carry and all the reasons why it's like the the deck is stacked against you. I went on all everyone's clubhouse and I ranted and raved and nobody listened and everyone lost all their money. I I did the best I could, but I don't I don't hate the I don't hate the player in that in that I hated the game. Um anyway, uh I'm not buying Chimat's news back either. I do think that this is a sign that we're getting closer to the end of something than the beginning. I do agree with that. Um and he probably would agree, too, which is why you better sell this thing as fast as you can. >> So, you might not have another chance to launch this in in six months. Another Canadian, uh, Eric Jackson. Is he gonna do this? Is this gonna work? >> This is like such a great heel turn from Jackson. >> Tweet on. Is it is But is it? All right. So, uh, >> what did he What did he tweet? I can't see it. What did he tweet? >> It says, "When the pirates take over the ship and suddenly it starts sailing faster." So, for those of you who don't know, and if you're watching the show, you do know, but Eric Jackson took Carvana. Not Eric Jackson was very early on Carvana and he [ __ ] thousandxed it. I I assume that he held for the majority of the time, maybe the whole time. Good for him. And so when he spoke >> and when he spoke about the next thousandx, >> people listened and I listened. I almost bought it. Uh I didn't and I regret not buying it, but uh whatever. So So now they got the CEO out of her seat at Open Door. By all accounts, she was doing a terrible job. And Eric thinks this is the next hundred bagger and he thinks it's going to $82 a share. And the question is, can Eric and the army of retail investors get this thing remotely close? It's at $3 where I don't know if it's three, four bucks, whatever it is. Can they do it? >> The thing is that he started this at like 50 cents. So if you listen to him, you're already up a lot. And he's talking about this thing being worth thousands of percentage points more. He's from 82. Um, and but then but then he's like like pulling a lot of the tricks out of like the classic playbook for this meme stock [ __ ] Um, where he's like picking fights with people who disagreed with him and he's doing like the memes. >> He's all in on this. >> He's all in on this. And then he's also doing this thing where it's like this uh this is like what's good for society. Like thanks to Open Door, we're going to solve the housing crisis. like I'm mad. He's So people accused him of manipulating. We didn't accuse him. We asked the question, is this manipulation? I think if you play back what we said, we said no, it's not. This is no different than anyone else saying they like a stock. The difference is it was a 50 cent stock and um he's not talking about it going from 50 cents to $5. He's talking about like going to almost 100. So it just like it gets under people's skin when you do that. Um but he's unapologetically doing it and um he doesn't believe that uh I don't believe that the stock needs to go to 82 for him to be that uh uh to for him to be right. If this goes to 10, this is one of the biggest winners anyone will have in their portfolio. And it definitely could go there's a universe where this goes to >> show the chart. Show the Eric Jackson effect, John, please. Uh so this is the stock just getting destroyed. It's still down 90%. But show the next one. >> Let's Let's tell people what this Wait, wait, go back to the other one real quick. >> So, actually, this is a Chimat stock, is it not? Wasn't this a >> Chimat? It's a Chimat Spack. So, Open Door had this idea that they were going to digitally buy houses like just on the internet, just bid for houses and then resell them. >> By the way, by the way, there's an alternate universe. Shut off. There's an alternate universe where maybe it could have worked. I don't know. But they launched at the absolute worst time possible. >> 21. >> Yeah. >> Well, it went public at the worst time. >> They launched into a housing mania. >> Yeah. >> Uh but I would also point out Zillow tried the same thing and it failed miserably. Also, it's not >> It was horrible. It's not an easy thing to do. >> It was the worst timing ever. >> Yes. Now, the difference is Zillow got out of that business and Open Door is still at it >> and now they have a partnership, I think. But anyway, >> okay. But yes, this was one of the Chimat uh spacks and it fell 99%. Like it's one of the it is one of the most horrific uh pieces of paper to have uh occurred in that 21 to 25 period. And there were a lot of them, but this one was really bad. It's amazing it didn't go to zero, but it didn't. And now they seem to have gotten a handle on the losses at the company. Chimatha's gone and they fired the CEO, which of course you have to fire the CEO. The stock is 50 cents. Um, but the average loss over the last four quarters is like $40 million and they actually have been surprising to the upside, meaning the losses are smaller than expected. The company is claiming on an operating basis they're actually earning money. The problem is they have two 2.2 billion in debt. So, they're making a lot of interest payments on that debt and um they're barely profitable, >> but but they needed to get the CEO out. Hello, wake up. Do an equity offering. Raise some money. Pay down the debt. >> Well, so so that's what I think is is going to happen and it should happen. And if you're long the stock and you truly are an investor and you're not just trading it because it's a meme stock, you should want them to raise money. They should raise equity capital and they should probably be talking about a reverse split. There is no institution that will own this stock at $3 a share. It should be $30 a share. >> No, they don't want the institutional investors. $3 is the point. You know that >> you want the retail now, but you probably as the story matures and the retail losses interest, then you're going to want institutions. So, start thinking that way today. >> Yeah. >> Um >> retail was still excited about GameStop when it went to 40. They didn't stop buying it. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, >> show show the chart about the year-to- date chart that we have. I mean, look what this guy did. >> Eric Eric did Eric did this and he deserves he deserves credit because he probably brought this thing back from the dead. I don't know what would have happened absent him saying, "Hey guys, there's actually a valuable business here." So, he did that. >> Well, absent that, they would have ran out. >> If you're you love them, >> they would have ran out of money. >> If you're short the stock, if you short the stock, you hate them. If you're longing stock, you love them. >> Yeah. Okay. Uh, >> last topic. Kathy Wood. Uh, she's back. >> I think she's back. What do you think? >> I want to hear what you think. >> I don't think so. >> What do you mean? >> Her ETFs are doing well. >> They are >> like, not just okay, they're doing really well. >> Yeah. >> And her stocks are working. >> We have a we have a table of what she's buying or what her biggest positions are. Uh, so it's it's Tesla, Roku, Coinbase, Tempest AI. Is that a private stock? I don't know that one. Roblox, Shopify, Palanteer, Crisper, Robin, and AMD. Listen, >> she's definitely back in the sense that uh the performance has turned around for sure. >> Baltunas tweeted, "Holy Noah, get it. Arc is at the top of the oneweek flow leaderboard with $5.5 billion. >> It's a lot of money. It's more than VO in the Q." So, she's not not back. Um, >> she's good. She's back. This is her environment. This is her market. When the $3 stocks are going to six and when the money losing companies are up 40, 50, 60% off the April lows and when everyone's talking about robots and AI and flying cars and gene editing and all that [ __ ] This is her market, >> okay? >> And that's what's going on. I'm not saying last forever. >> No, I No, listen. Okay, fine. Looking backwards, absolutely. She was back. Let's throw this uh this chart of ARC versus S&P versus the Q's. So, I'm guessing so this is the last three years and yeah, listen, I love that she made a comeback. I love I love I love more importantly, forget about her, the investors that stuck with her. I don't like to see people losing money ever. So, I very much I very much am in favor and I hope this continues and I hope that investors get hold because it was a really really difficult couple of years for them. So, I'm rooting for them. >> How about this? Here's another person. I don't invest with her, but I root for her and I like her personally. And um it's another like there are a lot of people like that where it's like I don't really agree with the way you view markets, but like I like you and I root for you. I don't I don't understand all the hatred. I guess like people were short stocks that she was long. >> I understand some of it more so for Traumath than for her cuz kind of a dick when people were chirping at him. Like he was not he was not very nice to the people that that lost a lot of money with him. be a little have a little bit of self interest. >> You know what? So, I'm not on I don't see it. I'm not I don't have the Twitter thing in front of me, but from what I from what I hear that that's what he did. Um he like kicked the hornets's nest after these stocks blew up and uh that never goes well. Remember all that stuff I was saying about how people use Joe Teranova's active ETF to like hit that segment of the market, the momentum trades? >> Uh >> like what why not use why not use ARC that way? say to a client like, "Look, I don't buy [ __ ] like this." >> Yeah. >> I'm never I'm never gonna buy like uh gan editing stocks for you and um I'm like I'm not going to be buying you Flutter and DraftKings and all that stuff. It's not it's not what I do. But but I recognize that in certain market environments, those stocks are going to outperform. So rather than me trying to do a Kathy Wood impression, I'm gonna give you 3% arc. >> Yeah. I'm going to give you 5% ARC. There's not like what's wrong with that? >> Doing that. >> Uh, okay. So, ARC, so to their credit, ARC ARC is outperforming the DJ Dow year to date chart on please. So, ARC is up 83% from the liberation lows and this is a year-to- date chart and uh, yeah, it's >> so credit. >> We tried to come up with our own index of Kathy Woodesque stocks and she's beating them. >> So, all right. >> We need to we need to do an active we need to do an active rebalance. Um Josh, I'm gonna do a mystery chart real quick. I don't know if you could see it, but it's instructive just for the purposes of today's show. The and then you'll make the case for Rocket. Uh John, mystery chart on please. Josh, can you see this chart? >> Yes. >> Okay. So, this is >> Are you showing me the volume on the bottom page? >> Yeah. Yeah. So, I'm I'm going to give it away uh because I don't know how else to give you a clue without giving it away, but I just think this is this is the sort of thing. Chart off for a second. This is the sort of thing where you talk a lot of [ __ ] the internet gets up in arms and then like it goes the other way and it never get never gets brought up again. So, chart back on. What we're looking at here is a conversation that we had on the show, I guess two weeks ago, three weeks ago, uh where I was defending the bankers. This is a new issue. Nobody is trying to mispric the shares, okay? They want to get it right for their clients. Their clients are the people that are paying them. And anyway, the stock popped and now it's just gone nowhere but down ever since that first day. What is it? >> Sigma. >> Yes. >> Yeah, you gave it away because I remember us talking about it. >> I don't think people are saying that the bankers deliberately >> Oh, yes, they did. >> The company in favor of the shareholders. I don't >> Yes, they did. No, that is what people are saying. That is what >> I don't say that. >> What makes no sense? My comment, well, no, it definitely makes no sense because I guarantee you the corporate issuer of securities who's going to sell stocks and bonds through you for the next 10 years is a way more profitable client. >> Thank you. >> than than the schmucks that are allocating 100 for that are uh asking for 100 shares of an IPO. 100% I agree. What the my comment is, how is it possible? We're doing this. We're doing this [ __ ] since Amsterdam in the 1600s. How How can we be so bad at gauging the demand for a for a stock after 525 years of initial public offerings on exchanges around the world from Europe to New York to San Francisco. >> I'll tell you why. I'll tell you why. >> Why is this like >> I'll tell you, >> dude. Mike, they're getting it wrong by a by a factor of 100%. What the [ __ ] kind of business is this? >> Let me quote our friends. Let me quote our friend Phil Pearllin. I believe this is the tweet. Here's the thing about behavioral finance. People are crazy. Was that the tweet? You remember that tweet? >> Yes. >> Price. You can't price mob behavior. >> I would I reject that, >> dude. It can't do it. They can't do it. >> There's got to be a better There's got to be a better way. I think somebody better >> Oh, yeah. Genius. Who? The way it is. >> How? >> I don't know. But there's got to be a better way. >> There has to be. I'm not suggesting that I'll come up with it. You're telling me that somebody is not benefiting from this circus. >> It's just it's just this random thing that we can't get better at. >> Sometimes they high and sometimes they price it low. >> The average IPO should not open up 100% higher than the price. >> It doesn't. The average does not. The average does not. >> This is literally what's going on all summer. We just talked about bullish. We did circle. We did Figma. We did. >> Okay. Figma went to 150 and now it's 60. By the way, it's 6969 in the after hours. Very, very nice. Uh, it's not the banker's fault that people go nuts when these shares start trading and then they lose interest. How is that a banker problem? People get excited and then they get bored. >> So, there's the way the auctioning is working if they really wanted to get it closer to reality. >> Make the case for Rocket. >> Uh, not really making the case because we've already done that on this show. We are giving people an update because today there was a very big initiation of coverage on Rocket and we have people, you know, that have that have listened to us make the case on the stock before. Um, double disclosure here. Not only do we own the stock personally, um, but Rocket has a subsidiary called Rocket Money, which is a frequent advertiser on the compound. >> Double classic double disclosure. >> Double disclosure, but we're very transparent here. Anyway, um, the stock is working. The stock is up huge from its lows on the year. It is, I think, up in anticipation of rate cuts. When they close this acquisition of Mr. Cooper, according to the analyst at BTIG, who initiated coverage with a $25 price target today, Rocket will become the largest originator and serer of mortgages in the United States. Um most of the uh most of the shares outstanding are not in the float, meaning like there's a lot of shares that are non-traded and so it looks like it's got a tiny market cap, but like the reality the real value of this company is like in the 30-ish billions uh range. But um if rates come down over the next year or two years and we have another cycle in housing and we see a lot of transactions in an existing market and we see refi activity um and and we see the uh the young millennials and and older genz's start to really participate in the housing market. These guys will have the best mousetrap technologically to grab all that business. Not only did they make this Mr. Cooper acquisition which is the largest uh independent portfolio of mortgage servicing. Um they also bought Redfin which is a leading lead genen app for realtors and mortgage brokers. So they have built this like during this time of depressed activity in housing. They have built this vertical empire and that's what the analyst wrote about today. You heard it here first from us at 11 12 bucks a share. Now it's 18. The analyst says in the bull case with both rate cuts and $500 million worth of um merger synergy, this could really be a $30 stock. So, um reason to reason to hang on and if you can get yourself a copy of that uh BTI note and you're long with stock, I highly recommend reading it. It was really well done. Um all right, that's it from me. Michael, you did an amazing job. I apologize for my technological issues. Um, we didn't miss a beat and uh, you you were there to you were there to save us. Um, guys, thank you so much for listening. Thanks for watching. Special thanks to our friend Neil Dada for stopping by and filling us in on the Jackson Hole outlook. Tomorrow is an all new edition of Animal Spirits. Uh, first thing in the morning, we'll do another Ask the Compound this week. And then at the end of the week, um it's a very special compound and friends with a returning champion, someone whom I know you're all dying to hear, uh from and see. So uh you're not going to want to miss that either. Thanks again. Have a great night. We'll talk to you soon. [Music]
No Crying in the Casino | WAYT?
Summary
Transcript
[Music] Oh my god, you guys >> look alive. >> I am. No, I'm furiously closing out tabs. I had way too much open which would affect my resolution and I want people to get the full effect. Hey, it's uh 5:00 on a Tuesday. We are here with an all new edition of What are your thoughts? For those of you checking out the show for the first time, his name is Michael Batnik. My name is Josh Brown. And each week we gather together here with a few thousand of our uh loyal live pounders and talk about all the biggest developments in the markets, in the economy. and we have an absolute blast doing it. So, can I say something for joining us? >> Your his name is my name is. That's a very 80s movie theme. >> It's like weird science. >> You know what I mean? >> Bad though. >> No, I'm just No, I love it. It's retro. >> I thought it came off well. >> Yeah, I love it. >> Let's say hi to some of the viewers and then we'll get to our sponsor. Tea Wa is here. Just Dave Ronald Aramenta. Matt Steic says, "Batnick button-down." That's right. Very rare. >> Almost down. I'm wearing a button down. You're right. You're right. >> Akbar Muhammad likes the uh the big the big pony polo shirt. Thank you. Vincent Aguilar is here. Rose is here. Hello. Um Lawrence Rapone. Two brothers say what's up. What's up? All right. All the uh all the pounders are here tonight and uh we love you guys for coming out for the live on YouTube. And uh as I like to say, the chat is already lit. Tonight's show is brought to you by Betterment Advisor Ser Services >> Solutions. Betterment Advisor Solutions. If you happen to be thinking, there's got to be a better way to grow my RAIA, you're not alone. With Betterment Advisor Solutions, we do the heavy lifting so you can focus on what matters most your clients. From improved service that makes asset transitions smoother to fast paper free onboarding that delights clients on day one. We've built a digital first platform designed to stream your operations and make life easier. Now, if you're thinking, "Wow, they take the paper out of paperwork." Then you'd be right. Grow your RA your way at Betterment Advisor Solutions. >> Learn more at betterment.com/advisors. Investing involves risk performance not guaranteed. Okay. Um we have an action-packed show. Um, there's all kinds of Oh, who could it be? Look who's here. You guys, we are in the presence of of absolute greatness. Neil Dada has r the doorbell. >> Yeah, literally. >> Hi guys. Neil, thank you so much for uh stopping by and perfect timing because starting on Friday is another uh Jackson Hole August weekend and this is the last one we think for uh Jay Powell. What do you think? >> Uh I think that's about the safest bet you can make. It's going to be his last. >> Neil, you are you a Jackson Hole truther? And I don't even know what that means, but are you? Well, I I think that uh what what does So, what does that mean? >> Like, does he believe that it it exists? >> I mean, I certainly believe that it exists. I think if if I had to say what it would mean, it's like that you're going to get some big signal out of it, right? I mean, because this dates back to like the uh the Bernanki era, right, when he basically green lit QE2, if you remember, at Jackson Hole. And really, ever since then, everyone's always kind of looked at Jackson Hole for some kind of signal. I mean, if you remember last year, um, you know, Powell basically green lit a September rate cut. We didn't really know whether it was going to be 25 or 50, but he green lit a cut. He said the time to adjust policy was now. Um, so, you know, it kind of comes and it goes. I mean, there's there are times when there's not really much news that comes out of Jackson Hole, and there's times when there's lots of news that comes out of Jackson Hole. So, uh, you know, we'll see which uh which one this will be. >> Uh, last year the speech was 15 minutes long. Baron's uh has a piece uh he's calling they're calling this year um Powell's last stand. Like this is his last chance to cement his legacy is the way that they're taking it. Like um basically he might end up using this as as like a defense of the independence of the Fed. Might be like a whole thing about that. Who who really knows? Um, but last year when when he green lit the uh the rate cut, I don't think people thought, "Okay, we'll do one and done." But that's how it ended up being because the economic data just I guess in his eyes didn't justify more. So even if he does signal that they're ready to cut rates in September, nobody should take that to mean anything beyond September. Well, I mean, last year they went they green lit the September cut, then they ended up doing 100 basis points worth of cuts for the year, right? They went 50 in September and then they went 25 in each of the remaining two meetings. >> Yeah. >> You know, it's interesting like listening looking at that Baron's article and like what is what is his legacy? because obviously they're framing it in a way of like okay he's like this like last line of defense against Trump and the Fed's independence but and like inflation fighting and so forth and leaning against tariffs but let's not forget like before co his legacy was supposed to be the guy that had this inclusive labor market remember that I mean basically bringing people in at the margins of the workforce and sort of uh you know I guess I can say this as one like leave no minority unemployed kind of thing, right? I mean, so um that I mean it was basically about running the labor markets hotter uh and sort of you know inflation expectations were anchored and so the Fed had more room to kind of let the labor markets run hot. That's what his legacy was going to be before. >> What do you think it is? What do you think his legacy is as the as the chapter is closed on see Josh as the chapter closes on uh on Jerome Powell? What do you think the legacy is going to be? >> Um, I I mean I think if you give it enough time, I think his legacy will be one of, you know, the I mean, the Fed basically delivered reasonably good economic outcomes in in pretty trying times. That's that that'll be his legacy. I mean, you know, and part of this was stuff that Governor Waller talked about before, which is, you know, I mean, how do you get a soft landing? And uh you know the Fed leaned into this idea that you could you could essentially trim uh job openings without seeing much of an increase in unemployment. And you know by and large that bet was was a a successful one. And if you look at I mean you have to grade on a curve right like could the >> dude he was coaching he was coaching the 2017 Warriors. >> Um you have to grade on a curve. That's kind of what I believe. And so, you know, if you grade on a curve, I think, you know, the Fed did reasonably well over this period. >> Um, all right. So, zooming in on where we are today, what do you think where do you think rates should be and what do you think he's going to tell the world in uh a few days? Um, well, I think that he's going to try to give us some meat around the bones of how they kind of think about both sides of their of their mandate, right? Like they have one of employment and they have inflation. And the the tension right now is that, you know, the labor markets are getting worse, but they think inflation might be getting worse, too. And so, how they resolve that tension is going to be very important. Now, Powell has a really tough job because this isn't like last year. Like back then, everyone was on board for rate cuts, right? It was really just around the timing of when they would do it that year. It wasn't whether they would do it or not. That's not the case this year, right? Right now, it's like a it's like a biodal distribution. You have a bunch of people that think they should cut twice and you have a bunch of people that don't think they should cut at all. And so, it's really his job to kind of find a middle ground. Um and that's that's why um you know Bloomberg has this article wager for half point rate reduction faces test of Powell remarks like I don't think he can make a strong signal like that at this at Jackson Hole. Like there's no way you can do that before the meeting because you have so many people that are out there telling you and they're still out there squawking. I mean you had a bunch of you know regional Fed presidents and so forth coming out and um and talking about this. There's no way to frontr run that meeting and kind of lay down the um you know the pipe for a for for a big upfront move. I mean >> tell tell me if this is a reasonable take. The Fed cannot control tariffs and input prices. The Fed cannot control the labor market, particularly entry- level jobs that are getting smoked. But what they can control and what they have absolutely wrecked a huge piece of the economy is the housing market. The housing market is all sorts of effed up and for that alone rates should be at least 50 basis points lower. Is that reasonable or is that ridiculous or somewhere in between? Well, I think I mean I would argue that the Fed does have a little bit more. I mean, over the long run, the Fed doesn't have control over the unemployment rate obviously, but you know, I think there are times where if you provide some lift to the economy by lowering interest rates, you probably will generate some demand for labor. >> Do you think they will today? Do you think that that environment exists today? >> Sure. I mean, if you like, for example, you just mentioned housing, right? I mean, I think I agree with you, by the way, on housing. I think housing is an absolute mess and we saw more evidence of that today, right? Right. I mean, you have, you know, basically the main asset that's used as collateral in the banking system deflating in price for the last 5 months. That was out from Zillow this morning. Uh, and then, you know, look at building permits today. Building permits hit another cycle low. Um, and uh, you know, I mean, builder sentiment was weak. So, we had a raft of housing data this week that were all sort of not great. And um so I would tend to agree that if you have a housing focused view that it kind of makes it pretty obvious that you should be cutting. But at the same token, I mean this is also probably one reason why builders are probably on the verge of cutting construction workers, right? I mean they they just they need to rationalize their building model relative to what they're what they're selling. Um so that means cutting costs, which means cutting people. >> Oh, who could it be? >> You have no idea. You have no idea what just happened. There there's like a >> power. >> No, there's like a Wi-Fi setup that just crashed off the wall onto the floor. >> We're going to blame that. We're going to blame Hurricane Aaron. >> Fed's got to cut. But well, Josh, Josh, welcome back. But Neil, so for people that are like, "No, it's all good for people that are that are looking around and saying the S&P is at an all-time high. Chimath is launching a spa. There is speculation in the streets and in the sheets. How could they cut rates?" Isn't that such a red herring? Like, does that matter at all to the conversation, the inputs that >> You don't need to take my word for it. You don't need to take my word. You have a very good analyst in your own shop that made that very precise that that argument. >> So, shout out. Yeah, Kelly made that argument and I obviously I agree with her. I mean, you know, look, I mean, you usually at the time of the look at the time of the rate cuts you the markets are not that far from their highs. That's also true, by the way, of like at the time, if you look historically, of like the first negative jobs number, the stock market's not too far from its highs. So, I think what's important here is like if you're the Fed, do you care about financial market conditions or do you care about financial conditions in the real economy? Like if financial conditions are this loose, why is it so difficult to buy a home? Why is I mean you look at the Fed's own uh loan officer survey lending standards for CNI loans, CR loans, multif family residential loans, they're all still tightening. Um different parts of the consumer credit space are also tightening. So just because financial market conditions are loose doesn't necessarily mean that financial conditions in the real economy are as well. All right, last thing for me as we go into the week. There is a um I think a misunderstanding or misexpect. I don't know what I'm looking for. People tend to think that Jackson is a market moving event and unfortunately it was in 2022 when we were at future proof. That was a lot of fun. Not but bespoke has this chart showing how the market has reacted during these weeks and it's sort of nothing with nothing. I mean maybe a little bit elevated, a few outliers, but overall eh well this goes back to the point that I that I made earlier is that there are times when it's a huge signal for what's about to happen and there there are times when it's just sort of an academic discussion among friends about you know things they're looking at in the future and you know this time it might be a little bit of both right I mean the Fed's going to talk up their framework review right I remember back a few years ago they had this flexible average inflation targeting thing that they put in place and that lasted all of you know about few weeks because of COVID but um you know so this is sort of you know you're going to have a little bit on the near- term and I think a lot on you know how the Fed is thinking about how they're going to deal with supply shocks in the future. My my only question is why don't you get invited to Jackson Hole or have you been and you've opted not to go because it would be much harder for you to analyze this if you became part of the the show itself. >> I think um I think the primary reason why I'm not invited is because I don't have three letters after my name P. >> Is it is it as simple as that? >> No, I mean I don't I mean it's not I you know look I think some of the bank economists have in the past gotten invited. Um but really this is um you know it's it's it's central bankers talking amongst themselves. Um that that's kind of what and presenting their research and you know I mean that's that's that's largely what it's been about. The I think I think the Chicago Fed or or the Booth School at the University of Chicago does a nice monetary policy forum. I'd like to be invited to that one day. That'd be cool. But uh not expecting an invitation uh to Jackson Hole anytime soon. Well, if you if you if you do get invited, your yours will be the commentary I most look forward to coming out of that coming out of that event. Um, all right, Neil, thank you for bearing with us. I'm sorry I dipped out for most of that. I will be re-watching it later. Uh, technical difficulties, but awesome to see you and uh enjoy your end of summer vacation. >> Thanks, Josh. Bye, Michael. >> Later. >> All right, we're back. You good? >> Yeah. No, I'm great. You got to take us to the next topic. I'm attempting to get my Wi-Fi back up, but it's uh I got the sound that this made when it all came crashing down. >> All right, we're talking uh this is good timing because a couple of weeks ago, was it last week actually? You and I played the game maybe two two weeks ago. It was two weeks ago. Which falling stock would you most want to buy? And I believe >> the falling knife game. We love that game. >> I believe we landed on United Health. Uh maybe my memor is faulty, but either way, either way, there was news last week because the 13Fs came out and a lot of people bought this knife. Uh Bergkshire included. So they bought more than 5 million shares throughout the quarter. We don't have an average price. Uh they spent one Oh, no. Yeah, my bad. We do have an average price. I could back into it, but I didn't do that, so apologies. They bought 5 million shares for $1.6 billion. Chat, what did they buy it at? Help us out. Um it is chart on, please. Uh it is their 18th largest holding. So they've got a $ 1.6 billion position out of call it uh 200 I don't know the market's up since then $280 billion portfolio. >> Tiny. >> Yeah. >> Tiny. Um but we All right. So I think it's important to point out that uh a lot of times they will start out buying something and they're nowhere near finished. They might never buy it again. they might sell it next quarter. They might spend two years adding to it. Every time they report, every time they file a 13F, they might add to it. Um, so this is one of those things where it's like too early to really like assign a uh like a a hard and fast decision on what they're doing here. Um, but it is classic. It is classic Buffett. I don't know if this is one of his picks or one of the lieutenants. I would imagine they're involved in the conversation, the young guys, because he's retired as of the end of this year. Um, but what uh $25 billion in earnings at a $250 billion market cap, like this is like what they do. So, >> so I want to I want to uh I forgot to include I didn't include this in the image because it was tough to see, but uh I I clipped that from Slick Chart, so shout out to them. All right, it's the math. I used this thing. remember this. Uh $320. That is the price, the average price that they were in at. United Health traded as low as $235. So, oh my god, they thought they were getting a bargain and maybe they did, but they still had to sit through a nasty draw down. And mind you, the price today. So, they popped on the news obviously. Uh it wouldn't take much for this rubber band, which is stretched all the way down to pop a little bit. The stock is still at uh $34. So, still a little bit underwater, but uh yeah. No, listen, United Health is not a company that Bergkshire could buy. It's a gigantic company, and who knows what their intentions are, but they're not day trading this thing. They're not looking for a quick, you know, five 10% pop. Let's sell. >> I agree with that take. And I would also point out it's even more notable that David Teraloosa was also buying it at the same time. And I'm sorry, I don't know if there are historical examples of stocks where they got cut Dow stock cut in half with both David Pepper and Warren Buffett buying it at the same time. But like I have to believe that's going to have a good outcome >> for the people that >> now a lot of the people that I do TV with, they were long the stock already and you know they were excited because in many cases they owned the thing from 600. They rode this thing down from 600 to 270. They averaged down the whole way down. They defended it. And now like Buffett coming in in the low 300s, I feel like it's a get out of jail free card. >> It's validation for the you know, >> it's validation that like see there is value here. Unfortunately, if you loved it at 600, it might be it might be a minute before your investors care, but um at least you save a little bit of face on TV. >> Um the stock. Here were some other moves. Uh they took a small stake in steel manufacturer Newor, uh Lamar Advertising, uh security firm Allegian. They got back into homebuilders. I think that's notable. You and I are in that corner. Uh they bought Lenar and Dr. Horton and uh they did some trimming and Bank American Apple. >> He's got a long history of being in and out of the home building and the the housing related stocks. thought it was really interesting that Home Depot missed on the top line and the bottom line and the stock traded higher. >> Yeah, >> that actually helped the that actually helped the Dow buck the the bigger trend of of down stocks. Home Depot is a $400 uh name. And I know you don't care about dollars, but the Dow does. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> And uh that United Health last week and Home Depot this week, those are two Picksave uh stocks with high dollar share prices that um helped the uh helped the Dow 30. >> Oh [ __ ] Uh so, oh [ __ ] was that a misprint? My bad. Um I just got excited about a stock that was a the fat finger trade, I suppose. All right. Anyway, um, Home Depot is a stock that I own and I didn't read the report yet today, but obviously investors don't care about what happened last quarter. >> Nope. >> Because it's not relevant. All that they care about is what is the next Fed chairman >> and rates coming down and and that that really is it. So, John, can we throw this chart up? I thought this is interesting. Um, I saw I couldn't find it. I saw Robert Armstrong of the FT did a post on Birkshshire versus property and casualty companies and I couldn't find it so I recreated it. Here's a chart people have talked about prior to I guess the last couple of years over the last like remember there was a time not too long ago over the last one year, five year, 10 year, 15, 20 years Bergkshire had underperformed the market. >> Yes. >> Not anymore. Not anymore. So the the purple line is Birkshshire. The blue line is the S&P and the orange line is I guess what you would bucket them into. Although I know they're not really a property and casualty company, but certainly they are a giant insurance company and however you slice it. I mean they've kicked ass. The stock has worked every which way. >> Yeah. Um and what's so cra and what's so crazy about it is that this the outperformance is persisting through um this AI uh moment and the cloud computing era and Apple obviously helped them a lot but then like insurance business was great last year like uh premiums were high not a lot of underwriters were out in the market and and uh there weren't any massive catastrophes. there was a the wildfire uh episode, but like that was a great year for example for all the uh PNC insurers and that's a huge part of Bergkshire's business. Um I know Geico is doing really well and then the railroad was doing really well. So like they there just so many different ways to make money as a Bergkshire shareholder. Um the exposure to financials um that they've largely taken off by now, but they had on. Um so it's like uh I don't know. I hate to I shudder to refer to any individual company stock as an allseason uh kind of stock, but if ever there were one, I really feel like it's Bergkshire. Even when people are disappointed with it, >> all that usually means is that it went up slower than some other index, >> you know. So, it's it's definitely it's definitely uh having another moment again this year, though. I agree. Last thing before we move on to Josh's topic, uh, if he comes back, Josh, come back. Is >> is Michael Bur. Credit to him. This guy has a sense of humor. So, his 13F came out and who knows what positions he still has on, but he famously got mocked and ridiculed on this show as well as as well as others for just tweeting sell, which is a fairly irresponsible thing to do, especially when it doesn't work. If it worked, yeah, hindsight is 2020. we probably would have spoken differently, >> but we did >> he'd be on the cover of like every everything, >> but anyway, he the guy's got his sense of humor. He tweeted by exclamation point with all the activity that he did and you know, whatever. Credit to him. Um, he was getting in there and uh he's got some positions that he probably made a lot of money on. Although, are those Lulu calls? That doesn't look that doesn't look like that aged well, but uh but whatever. He's, you know, he's laughing at himself, so appreciate that. >> All right. What? So, I can't I can't see what I wanted to discuss next. So, just tell me what it is. Prompt. Give me a little prompt. >> Chart on. So, we're talking uh that there are now 30 AI ETFs. Our Fred Todd Sone did some work here. So, Josh, can you see what we're looking at? If not, I'll I'll talk through it and then you could comment. >> Yeah. No, no, I can. And I love this because it's such a reminder. It's such a powerful reminder that sometimes you can have a theme that's so popular that everyone knows it's going to work and like the knee-jerk contrarian in people is to be like sell it. Um but like then it just keeps on working and for me that's the story of 23 24 and now the first eight months of 25. Yep. >> AI has been the obvious growth theme for the entirety of the last two and a half years to the point where there are 20 different pure play ETFs. They're all raising money. They're all buying the same stocks. And then uh also in Todd's work, there's another 10 ETFs that are like AI infrastructure and they're buying the utilities and the and the and the natural gas transmission companies. And it it's like obvious to everyone and also still a great investment. Not everything has to be mysterious, I think, is my point. Not everything has to be like, "Oh, this is so popular. I'm going to go the other way." It it's it's really important to fight that instinct because the herd is not always wrong. They're wrong at the end. They're wrong at the beginning. In the middle, the herd is the herd because whatever they're doing is working. What are your thoughts? So, it's funny. Ben and I spoke about that exactly today about people wanted to make money the hard way by being contrarian. Um, but yeah, you're right. And I would argue that the obvious trade and again, hindsight, but but even still, was the fang stocks. That acronym I think was born in 2017. And there's been people that have been fighting this for going on eight years. By the way, I didn't even know that IFR was a thing. John, throw that chart up, please. So, IFRA is the eyesshares infrastructure uh US infrastructure ETF and flows are coming in not surprisingly at all. And let me tell you, I'm looking at the top 10 holdings and it's 1, two, three, four. Sorry for counting on air. There's four industrials and six utilities. The largest the largest uh stocks are CSX, Nor Southern. Huh. Primorus, which is not a stock that I known. Everg. In fact, you know what? I don't know any of these names if I'm being honest. Hawaiian Electric, Bowman Consulting. >> So, um, so Sean and Chart offer sector. So, Sean and I did a write up last, I think it was last week or the week before. First of all, our best stocks in the market list is loaded with utilities and we're trying to write about them individually cuz nobody knows anything about any of these companies. And one of the most interesting ones we wrote about was Dominion, which is in Virginia. And it's like the we tal I think we did this as Make the Case uh maybe last week, but like you're talking about you're talking about uh a company where all the data centers are within their their domain. And like you talk about a an AI play, all the software, all the chips, all the GPUs, all the data centers are worthless if you don't have electricity coursing through them. Uh that and the fact that all those data centers are located um in Lowden County, Virginia of all places. And this just happens to be the regulated utility that's sitting there electrifying everything. Um it's just and that's an obviously a utility stock but like it looks incredible technically. Um it does nothing but go up because the estimates keep going up. There are so many stories like that that we don't associate with uh technology. Um but the charts are just lower left to upper right and continue to work. So why is that happening? Well, you've got 20 different ETFs that are allocated to these stocks and people are buying these ETFs every single day and uh they won't stop until they get some sort of a signal that tells them to stop. >> So, this is Eyesshar's US infrastructure ETF that I've never heard of. Ticker is if the thing has $3 billion uh in assets and needless to say, it didn't exist three years ago. Okay. Like it was just >> 0 to three billion in a couple years. Impressive. Josh, you had Sean make a chart on uh VGT, which is the Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund. I'm curious, why do you care about this one? >> Try and turn it on, please. >> According to Todd, this is the first sector ETF ever to break a hundred billion dollars in AUM. >> Oh, wow. The Vanguard one, huh? >> Huh? How do you like that? >> More than XLK? >> No. Wow. >> No. >> Um, and I think it's a model portfolio story. >> Oh, yeah. It's got to be. Yeah, there's another but still. >> So, this is this is what I think. I think financial advisors are trying to please their clients and they're using this as an overweight mechanism to just give them more exposure to the most obvious trade on earth. That's been the most obvious trade on earth for the last two years. As we talked about, this is such an easy way to do it. It's like, oh, just slap in 10% VGT. It's low cost. It's an index. It's Vanguard, so no one's going to yell at you. They're not going to [ __ ] it up. And you'll end up with exposure to these tech stocks that just they will not relent. Like, they go down for two weeks and then they go up even more when they recover. Like, look at semiconductor stocks. They crushed these stocks this spring and then they're now they're up like 30% from where they started. So, um I think people are using VGT as that kind of like let me shut my client the [ __ ] up overlay and it works. It's doing the job. Now you're an adviser. Look, I talked to uh Terteranova about this. Uh Joe Teranova's got a momentum and quality fund. So, he's screening for quality and he's uh screening for momentum and he's got whatever it is, 40 names, 50 names. He had advisors tell him like guys at UBS, guys at Maril Lynch, he knows these guys forever. He's been traveling around the country talking to advisers and they tell him like, "Joe, I don't know these stocks, so I use your ETF so that when my clients call up and they're like, why don't I own Palunteer?" Oh, you do here. You own in the JT. So, it's interesting like it's this is like a thing that advisers and um portfolio managers are struggling with. Um and I think the VGT breaking a 100red billion tells you all you need to know. That's advisor shutting their clients up here. Yeah. You happy? >> Here's your here's your tack overweight. I gave it to you. Okay. Can we can we talk about uh funding your grat now or you know whatever whatever you're working on with the client. So um do we have more from Todd here or that's it? >> Uh there was one >> there was one chart that we skipped over. I mean we've discussed it. The AI focus ETF inflow is going vertical. The >> listen >> the bottom pain is the the bottom pain is the inflows. I I hate to short term. Who gives a [ __ ] But it certainly feels like this might be we might be at a pause. It just it it it went everything went parabolic. Everything went vertical. The the headlines, the the it got it it's stupid. We're in silly territory. >> Did you see that? Um Palunteer just erased its entire post earnings uh uh gain >> shared that with us. >> I I shared that. That's a wild That's a Oh, you should That's a wild chart. >> So, >> that's an Empire State Building chart. >> Yeah. And and Karp and and our boy Dan, they were talking a lot of [ __ ] on the call. The stock gapped the hell up higher, shut every bear up, uh went up for a few more days, and then whoosh. I mean, listen, the the bulls have had the last laugh or they're they're enjoying themselves. Who cares? It's down 60%. It's up a gazillion percent. But, uh yeah, we'll see. All right. um >> 16. It's down 16% from the high. >> Yeah, whatever. So, >> whatever, right? They can announce one contract with like Russia tomorrow or like who the hell knows what they could announce and and get that all back >> before bears start getting salty and start flexing. It was at 66 at the April low and went to 190. It's now 155. So, we'll see. Um all right. Last week and and every week we talk about these gigantic tech stocks that are not even tech stocks. There are everything stocks. Amazon being a classic example of what even is it? How do you describe it? It does so many different things. And like a gigantic oceanliner, it's just demolishing anybody in its wake. And this week was Instacart. Now, the shares have since recovered a little bit, but what am I talking about here? Here's what I'm talking about. This is from Bloomberg. Amazon.com plans to offer same day gross uh same day grocery delivery in 2300 cities by the end of the year, more than doubling the current number and making it its latest attempt to muscle into the $1 trillion grocery industry led by of course Walmart. This is the face blower to me. Um so US shoppers spend $1 trillion annually on groceries and yet online grocery sales represent less than 20% of that. Now, it's still it's a gigantic number and there is a natural cap at some point like people want to go to the grocery store. Not everybody has Prime, not you, et but but still there's there's room there. >> Yeah. And it's not even just that there's room there. It like forces Target and Walmart to um to play defense because uh you know those stores have very very uh successfully used grocery to drive foot traffic um for people to buy other things while they're there getting their groceries. Um and it's been an amazing strategy. Um, but if Amazon starts picking off grocery customers, well, those are less trips to the store, to the physical store. Um, I don't know that Amazon's ecommerce lead is terribly powerful versus Walmart anymore. I think a lot of people just interchangeably um will order things from Walmart's e-commerce operation at this point. But Amazon going same day with things like produce and meat and eggs and the kinds of things people don't want to order and wait a day for the kinds of things like people like no I want to make this for dinner tonight or no I either I get the eggs now or I have to go to the the 7-Eleven. I I have to go to like a convenience store or a supermarket. Um oh don't worry about it Amazon will have them here by five o'clock. To me, that's behavior changing and it's a really big deal. And um you know the Maple Bear thing with Instacart, first of all, it's the worst service ever. Have you ever used it? You use Instacart? >> So, I had to on a couple of occasions. I had to like uh order some stuff cuz I was coming back from Florida and we just had nothing in our fridge and we were going to land and it was going to be all the stores would be closed or we' be too tired. So, order groceries for that. I get off the plane, I get home, and there are plastic bags sitting in front of my door waiting for me. I do like that, but like half the items that are listed in the app that they say the store has, they don't have it or they have a different flavor or the wrong size. So then you have to have this back and forth with the driver. Either you have a setting where you say to the driver, "Pick the closest thing available." >> Or the driver has to notify you. So, like, oh, you wanted uh lemon Italian ices, they only have chocolate. So, now you're having like this back and forth >> on the app, which sucks. And then they and then they screw it up anyway. And then by the time the fees are taken out and you're adding a a reasonable tip cuz like you almost feel guilty not tipping someone who just walk through a store for you, it was it's just so egregiously expensive. Half the items are wrong. the the website had it wrong and it just it's a horrendous experience. So, I'm not surprised to see um an overthe-top reaction, negative reaction for Instacart if Amazon's going to come into this business. Not that they'll do it perfectly, but they definitely can't do it worse. >> Here's another area that Amazon uh disrupted. I mean, not not Amazon per se, but just everyone. Is there a worse is there a larger melting ice cube than the linear cable ser cable services? >> So, for example, uh we got news this week that YouTube is now throwing their hat in the ring to get the rights to show the Academy Awards. Last night, uh or two nights ago, I rented It's not Blockbuster or Netflix. I rented Jurassic World Rebirth is >> the new one. >> Yeah. So anyway, I got it on Prime. I went now I'm like we're buying stuff on Prime. I mean it's everything. It is everything. >> Yeah. >> I'm sure you could say things that they don't do, but it's it does everything. >> Well, just look at look at how the cable companies and the media conglomerates are treating their linear TV assets. They can't shed them fast enough. Um, so, um, NBC, uh, Comcast, Comcast, which is NBC, is getting rid of all the news channels. They're going to bundle it into Versent, which will include CNBC. MSNBC just announced a name change. >> Yeah. What's the name? Uh, >> beyond bizarre, but um I no comment from me. Yeah. >> MS Now. >> Yeah. But then the NLW stands for news opinion world, >> which I >> I'll bet you I'll bet you $1,000 that'll change between now and the end of the year. >> Okay. I will not take that back. I will not take a bet. All right. Speaking of sign of the times and uh the the feelings of of uh or the not feelings to risk, who care who cares about risk? The bullish IPO. Let's talk about that. >> Well, my take was this. This is uh I don't have all the data in front of me, but I would just say it's billions of dollars in market cap for a company that is based in the Cayman Islands, >> which already three red flags. Not a fan. They filed an F1, not an S1, in order to go public. So an F1 is what you file when you intend to be a foreign doiciled company, but you want a listing on a US exchange. So in this case, it's the New York Stock Exchange. >> Josh, you want me to read some of these things that you put in here? Yeah, give us some of the numbers. >> All right, so uh according to the F1, uh for the period ending in March 31st, 2025, it generated 46.8 million in total revenue, a 22% increase over the prior year. However, it incurred a pre-tax loss of $348 million. Um earlier in March 2022, they reported annualized monthly revenue of $97 million. Uh analysts have noted that Bullish's business relies heavily on trading fees. Okay, obviously. All right, whatever. Here are the details on the IPO. They raised $1.1 billion via the sale of 30 million shares at an IPO price of $37 per share. Initial valuation $5.4 billion. Wow. Shares open trading around 90. Peaked near8 before closing around 68. >> Where did it close today? >> What's the follow through to the downside? >> What's the ticker? It's bull bl. Okay. >> Um Oh, wow. Yeah, that's not good. That's not good. Uh it closed at $58 or $59. Yeah. So, this is not this game is not for me. I think they're losing they're losing like 40 million a quarter or something. Um or or something like basically one of the problems here is that the value of their crypto assets rises and falls and there's like an accounting treatment of that that can make it seem like it's got like this erratic business which I don't really think is the case. Um but it's kind of like a mediocre brokerage. they are pitching this story where they're better for institutional clients than um Gemini or Coinbase are. I highly doubt it. >> I don't believe it. Um the the one thing that I think generated that $100 open though is Peter Teal's involvement. >> So I think he I don't think he's like got a dayto-day here. He's an he's an investor. He's an investor in a lot of things, but there's a Peter Teal connection and you know there was with uh Palunteer and people just like they were they they name associate and so it's like oh this is Peter Teal's brokerage. >> Yeah. Let me give you an alley of Josh. Um all right today quote this is a quote from somebody and you know who it is Josh. Today a company called Bullish came public. The deal was more than 20 times overs subscribed and the stock opened up for trading 143% from its offering price. Wow. The underwriters actually did their best to tamp enthusiasm. The deal was supposed to be 20.3 million shares priced between 20 to 31, but it was indeed upsized to 30 million, then priced 32 33. I would have taken that a little bit le a little bit higher, but you know what I mean. Arguably, they could have upsized it much more and made the price much higher. Josh, who was that quote from? >> That's so that's Jim Kramer and the irony is the stock that Bullish reminds me most of. All right, so I want to say this. Bullish owns Coindesk. So CoinDesk is one of the biggest media publishers in the crypto space and Bullish owns it. Um I guess they bought it during the tumult of 2022. Okay. CoinDesk is great. They do a great job. I like those guys. Um but it's basically it's a media company attached to a brokerage service. So the irony of the of Kramer commenting on it. Um, this reminds me a lot of the Street.com and I was there for the Street.com IPO. I was in the business and it came public in May of 1999, not right at the top, but like eight months before the top. And this is no fault of Kramers or anyone else's. This was just the level of enthusiasm for anything related to trading. this the street.com along with market watch were like the two first websites that were dedicated to covering the dot boom in the stock market and um the street.com was great. I was a subscriber. I almost bought the IPO. I'm glad I didn't that they upsized that deal several times um due to demand. I think it opened at like it ended up at 73 on the first day and then spent the next 25 years going to zero. Um like literally never had another bull market in that stock ever again. It was just this 25 year odyssey falling from $73 a share where it never belonged in the first place to effectively zero. Um and then I think the assets ended up just getting handed to somebody else. Um but that's what this reminds me of. But I'm not saying the businesses are identical. I'm just saying thematically. Um, we're now bringing uh Coindesk public effectively and we're saying it's a better brokerage than uh I don't know Bracken, Binance, CoinD, uh, Coinbase, Gemini, how many other Robin Hood, like come on, what what is this like the 10th the 10th largest brokerage firm in crypto attached to the street.com of the the crypto era and this thing is worth billions of dollars? Yeah. Is that what we're doing here? Is that Is that where we're going with this? So, that was my impression. I I I'm not surprised that um it was a big IPO day. I'm also not surprised that the stock is getting crowbar. >> Okay, here's what else is happening in the market in case you needed less you lest you uh forget where we are in the temperature check. Social capitalists Chimath Polyapata is launching a new spa 200 raising $250 million for the American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp. Uh and Q Capital 2020 shared the filing and uh highlighted this part for us to take a look at. Here's a quote. We believe that retail investors should only participate if A, this investment is a small part of an otherwise diversified portfolio. B, this investment is a quantum of capital. Who says quantum? They can afford to completely lose. And C, if they do lose their entire capital, they will embody the adage from President Trump that there can be quote no crying in the casino. End quote. And you know what? Okay, fine. I like this disclosure. I like it a lot. >> Yeah, I think the I I think the filing should have a [ __ ] spelling crossbones right on the cover. And you know what? Swim at your own risk. I really made a 180. First of all, I'm in the minority of people on Wall Street. I like Chimoth. I don't care. I'm not embarrassed. The guy snake charmed me the first time I met him. And I'm still I'm still hypnotized by him. I look, I I don't invest with him. I'm not putting my money into his deals. Uh his deals were mostly [ __ ] Um the in the the what is it? Hadasilia or something. I don't know. >> He was he was in the arena. Don't be a baby. >> Right. No, I I don't give a [ __ ] Like, he tried it. It didn't work. Now, there are people that think he's like deliberately scamming people. Give me a break, dude. Don't you think he would have loved it more than anything if those stocks worked out and if those companies turned into great companies? He's just not that good at it, it turns out. That's okay. Most people aren't. So, I I'm not one of these like people that like knee-jerk everything Shimath does. I have to talk [ __ ] about him. I like the guy. I think he's interesting. I don't want to invest with him. I don't like spaxs. I wrote a book where I did a whole chapter that spaxs are are poison. I explained all the reasons why all the [ __ ] up incentives um and and the carry and all the reasons why it's like the the deck is stacked against you. I went on all everyone's clubhouse and I ranted and raved and nobody listened and everyone lost all their money. I I did the best I could, but I don't I don't hate the I don't hate the player in that in that I hated the game. Um anyway, uh I'm not buying Chimat's news back either. I do think that this is a sign that we're getting closer to the end of something than the beginning. I do agree with that. Um and he probably would agree, too, which is why you better sell this thing as fast as you can. >> So, you might not have another chance to launch this in in six months. Another Canadian, uh, Eric Jackson. Is he gonna do this? Is this gonna work? >> This is like such a great heel turn from Jackson. >> Tweet on. Is it is But is it? All right. So, uh, >> what did he What did he tweet? I can't see it. What did he tweet? >> It says, "When the pirates take over the ship and suddenly it starts sailing faster." So, for those of you who don't know, and if you're watching the show, you do know, but Eric Jackson took Carvana. Not Eric Jackson was very early on Carvana and he [ __ ] thousandxed it. I I assume that he held for the majority of the time, maybe the whole time. Good for him. And so when he spoke >> and when he spoke about the next thousandx, >> people listened and I listened. I almost bought it. Uh I didn't and I regret not buying it, but uh whatever. So So now they got the CEO out of her seat at Open Door. By all accounts, she was doing a terrible job. And Eric thinks this is the next hundred bagger and he thinks it's going to $82 a share. And the question is, can Eric and the army of retail investors get this thing remotely close? It's at $3 where I don't know if it's three, four bucks, whatever it is. Can they do it? >> The thing is that he started this at like 50 cents. So if you listen to him, you're already up a lot. And he's talking about this thing being worth thousands of percentage points more. He's from 82. Um, and but then but then he's like like pulling a lot of the tricks out of like the classic playbook for this meme stock [ __ ] Um, where he's like picking fights with people who disagreed with him and he's doing like the memes. >> He's all in on this. >> He's all in on this. And then he's also doing this thing where it's like this uh this is like what's good for society. Like thanks to Open Door, we're going to solve the housing crisis. like I'm mad. He's So people accused him of manipulating. We didn't accuse him. We asked the question, is this manipulation? I think if you play back what we said, we said no, it's not. This is no different than anyone else saying they like a stock. The difference is it was a 50 cent stock and um he's not talking about it going from 50 cents to $5. He's talking about like going to almost 100. So it just like it gets under people's skin when you do that. Um but he's unapologetically doing it and um he doesn't believe that uh I don't believe that the stock needs to go to 82 for him to be that uh uh to for him to be right. If this goes to 10, this is one of the biggest winners anyone will have in their portfolio. And it definitely could go there's a universe where this goes to >> show the chart. Show the Eric Jackson effect, John, please. Uh so this is the stock just getting destroyed. It's still down 90%. But show the next one. >> Let's Let's tell people what this Wait, wait, go back to the other one real quick. >> So, actually, this is a Chimat stock, is it not? Wasn't this a >> Chimat? It's a Chimat Spack. So, Open Door had this idea that they were going to digitally buy houses like just on the internet, just bid for houses and then resell them. >> By the way, by the way, there's an alternate universe. Shut off. There's an alternate universe where maybe it could have worked. I don't know. But they launched at the absolute worst time possible. >> 21. >> Yeah. >> Well, it went public at the worst time. >> They launched into a housing mania. >> Yeah. >> Uh but I would also point out Zillow tried the same thing and it failed miserably. Also, it's not >> It was horrible. It's not an easy thing to do. >> It was the worst timing ever. >> Yes. Now, the difference is Zillow got out of that business and Open Door is still at it >> and now they have a partnership, I think. But anyway, >> okay. But yes, this was one of the Chimat uh spacks and it fell 99%. Like it's one of the it is one of the most horrific uh pieces of paper to have uh occurred in that 21 to 25 period. And there were a lot of them, but this one was really bad. It's amazing it didn't go to zero, but it didn't. And now they seem to have gotten a handle on the losses at the company. Chimatha's gone and they fired the CEO, which of course you have to fire the CEO. The stock is 50 cents. Um, but the average loss over the last four quarters is like $40 million and they actually have been surprising to the upside, meaning the losses are smaller than expected. The company is claiming on an operating basis they're actually earning money. The problem is they have two 2.2 billion in debt. So, they're making a lot of interest payments on that debt and um they're barely profitable, >> but but they needed to get the CEO out. Hello, wake up. Do an equity offering. Raise some money. Pay down the debt. >> Well, so so that's what I think is is going to happen and it should happen. And if you're long the stock and you truly are an investor and you're not just trading it because it's a meme stock, you should want them to raise money. They should raise equity capital and they should probably be talking about a reverse split. There is no institution that will own this stock at $3 a share. It should be $30 a share. >> No, they don't want the institutional investors. $3 is the point. You know that >> you want the retail now, but you probably as the story matures and the retail losses interest, then you're going to want institutions. So, start thinking that way today. >> Yeah. >> Um >> retail was still excited about GameStop when it went to 40. They didn't stop buying it. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, >> show show the chart about the year-to- date chart that we have. I mean, look what this guy did. >> Eric Eric did Eric did this and he deserves he deserves credit because he probably brought this thing back from the dead. I don't know what would have happened absent him saying, "Hey guys, there's actually a valuable business here." So, he did that. >> Well, absent that, they would have ran out. >> If you're you love them, >> they would have ran out of money. >> If you're short the stock, if you short the stock, you hate them. If you're longing stock, you love them. >> Yeah. Okay. Uh, >> last topic. Kathy Wood. Uh, she's back. >> I think she's back. What do you think? >> I want to hear what you think. >> I don't think so. >> What do you mean? >> Her ETFs are doing well. >> They are >> like, not just okay, they're doing really well. >> Yeah. >> And her stocks are working. >> We have a we have a table of what she's buying or what her biggest positions are. Uh, so it's it's Tesla, Roku, Coinbase, Tempest AI. Is that a private stock? I don't know that one. Roblox, Shopify, Palanteer, Crisper, Robin, and AMD. Listen, >> she's definitely back in the sense that uh the performance has turned around for sure. >> Baltunas tweeted, "Holy Noah, get it. Arc is at the top of the oneweek flow leaderboard with $5.5 billion. >> It's a lot of money. It's more than VO in the Q." So, she's not not back. Um, >> she's good. She's back. This is her environment. This is her market. When the $3 stocks are going to six and when the money losing companies are up 40, 50, 60% off the April lows and when everyone's talking about robots and AI and flying cars and gene editing and all that [ __ ] This is her market, >> okay? >> And that's what's going on. I'm not saying last forever. >> No, I No, listen. Okay, fine. Looking backwards, absolutely. She was back. Let's throw this uh this chart of ARC versus S&P versus the Q's. So, I'm guessing so this is the last three years and yeah, listen, I love that she made a comeback. I love I love I love more importantly, forget about her, the investors that stuck with her. I don't like to see people losing money ever. So, I very much I very much am in favor and I hope this continues and I hope that investors get hold because it was a really really difficult couple of years for them. So, I'm rooting for them. >> How about this? Here's another person. I don't invest with her, but I root for her and I like her personally. And um it's another like there are a lot of people like that where it's like I don't really agree with the way you view markets, but like I like you and I root for you. I don't I don't understand all the hatred. I guess like people were short stocks that she was long. >> I understand some of it more so for Traumath than for her cuz kind of a dick when people were chirping at him. Like he was not he was not very nice to the people that that lost a lot of money with him. be a little have a little bit of self interest. >> You know what? So, I'm not on I don't see it. I'm not I don't have the Twitter thing in front of me, but from what I from what I hear that that's what he did. Um he like kicked the hornets's nest after these stocks blew up and uh that never goes well. Remember all that stuff I was saying about how people use Joe Teranova's active ETF to like hit that segment of the market, the momentum trades? >> Uh >> like what why not use why not use ARC that way? say to a client like, "Look, I don't buy [ __ ] like this." >> Yeah. >> I'm never I'm never gonna buy like uh gan editing stocks for you and um I'm like I'm not going to be buying you Flutter and DraftKings and all that stuff. It's not it's not what I do. But but I recognize that in certain market environments, those stocks are going to outperform. So rather than me trying to do a Kathy Wood impression, I'm gonna give you 3% arc. >> Yeah. I'm going to give you 5% ARC. There's not like what's wrong with that? >> Doing that. >> Uh, okay. So, ARC, so to their credit, ARC ARC is outperforming the DJ Dow year to date chart on please. So, ARC is up 83% from the liberation lows and this is a year-to- date chart and uh, yeah, it's >> so credit. >> We tried to come up with our own index of Kathy Woodesque stocks and she's beating them. >> So, all right. >> We need to we need to do an active we need to do an active rebalance. Um Josh, I'm gonna do a mystery chart real quick. I don't know if you could see it, but it's instructive just for the purposes of today's show. The and then you'll make the case for Rocket. Uh John, mystery chart on please. Josh, can you see this chart? >> Yes. >> Okay. So, this is >> Are you showing me the volume on the bottom page? >> Yeah. Yeah. So, I'm I'm going to give it away uh because I don't know how else to give you a clue without giving it away, but I just think this is this is the sort of thing. Chart off for a second. This is the sort of thing where you talk a lot of [ __ ] the internet gets up in arms and then like it goes the other way and it never get never gets brought up again. So, chart back on. What we're looking at here is a conversation that we had on the show, I guess two weeks ago, three weeks ago, uh where I was defending the bankers. This is a new issue. Nobody is trying to mispric the shares, okay? They want to get it right for their clients. Their clients are the people that are paying them. And anyway, the stock popped and now it's just gone nowhere but down ever since that first day. What is it? >> Sigma. >> Yes. >> Yeah, you gave it away because I remember us talking about it. >> I don't think people are saying that the bankers deliberately >> Oh, yes, they did. >> The company in favor of the shareholders. I don't >> Yes, they did. No, that is what people are saying. That is what >> I don't say that. >> What makes no sense? My comment, well, no, it definitely makes no sense because I guarantee you the corporate issuer of securities who's going to sell stocks and bonds through you for the next 10 years is a way more profitable client. >> Thank you. >> than than the schmucks that are allocating 100 for that are uh asking for 100 shares of an IPO. 100% I agree. What the my comment is, how is it possible? We're doing this. We're doing this [ __ ] since Amsterdam in the 1600s. How How can we be so bad at gauging the demand for a for a stock after 525 years of initial public offerings on exchanges around the world from Europe to New York to San Francisco. >> I'll tell you why. I'll tell you why. >> Why is this like >> I'll tell you, >> dude. Mike, they're getting it wrong by a by a factor of 100%. What the [ __ ] kind of business is this? >> Let me quote our friends. Let me quote our friend Phil Pearllin. I believe this is the tweet. Here's the thing about behavioral finance. People are crazy. Was that the tweet? You remember that tweet? >> Yes. >> Price. You can't price mob behavior. >> I would I reject that, >> dude. It can't do it. They can't do it. >> There's got to be a better There's got to be a better way. I think somebody better >> Oh, yeah. Genius. Who? The way it is. >> How? >> I don't know. But there's got to be a better way. >> There has to be. I'm not suggesting that I'll come up with it. You're telling me that somebody is not benefiting from this circus. >> It's just it's just this random thing that we can't get better at. >> Sometimes they high and sometimes they price it low. >> The average IPO should not open up 100% higher than the price. >> It doesn't. The average does not. The average does not. >> This is literally what's going on all summer. We just talked about bullish. We did circle. We did Figma. We did. >> Okay. Figma went to 150 and now it's 60. By the way, it's 6969 in the after hours. Very, very nice. Uh, it's not the banker's fault that people go nuts when these shares start trading and then they lose interest. How is that a banker problem? People get excited and then they get bored. >> So, there's the way the auctioning is working if they really wanted to get it closer to reality. >> Make the case for Rocket. >> Uh, not really making the case because we've already done that on this show. We are giving people an update because today there was a very big initiation of coverage on Rocket and we have people, you know, that have that have listened to us make the case on the stock before. Um, double disclosure here. Not only do we own the stock personally, um, but Rocket has a subsidiary called Rocket Money, which is a frequent advertiser on the compound. >> Double classic double disclosure. >> Double disclosure, but we're very transparent here. Anyway, um, the stock is working. The stock is up huge from its lows on the year. It is, I think, up in anticipation of rate cuts. When they close this acquisition of Mr. Cooper, according to the analyst at BTIG, who initiated coverage with a $25 price target today, Rocket will become the largest originator and serer of mortgages in the United States. Um most of the uh most of the shares outstanding are not in the float, meaning like there's a lot of shares that are non-traded and so it looks like it's got a tiny market cap, but like the reality the real value of this company is like in the 30-ish billions uh range. But um if rates come down over the next year or two years and we have another cycle in housing and we see a lot of transactions in an existing market and we see refi activity um and and we see the uh the young millennials and and older genz's start to really participate in the housing market. These guys will have the best mousetrap technologically to grab all that business. Not only did they make this Mr. Cooper acquisition which is the largest uh independent portfolio of mortgage servicing. Um they also bought Redfin which is a leading lead genen app for realtors and mortgage brokers. So they have built this like during this time of depressed activity in housing. They have built this vertical empire and that's what the analyst wrote about today. You heard it here first from us at 11 12 bucks a share. Now it's 18. The analyst says in the bull case with both rate cuts and $500 million worth of um merger synergy, this could really be a $30 stock. So, um reason to reason to hang on and if you can get yourself a copy of that uh BTI note and you're long with stock, I highly recommend reading it. It was really well done. Um all right, that's it from me. Michael, you did an amazing job. I apologize for my technological issues. Um, we didn't miss a beat and uh, you you were there to you were there to save us. Um, guys, thank you so much for listening. Thanks for watching. Special thanks to our friend Neil Dada for stopping by and filling us in on the Jackson Hole outlook. Tomorrow is an all new edition of Animal Spirits. Uh, first thing in the morning, we'll do another Ask the Compound this week. And then at the end of the week, um it's a very special compound and friends with a returning champion, someone whom I know you're all dying to hear, uh from and see. So uh you're not going to want to miss that either. Thanks again. Have a great night. We'll talk to you soon. [Music]