Nvidia Earnings: Extensive focus on NVDA’s earnings, its 8% S&P 500 weight, and how passive index flows amplify upside and downside moves.
AI Concentration: Discussion of the AI trade’s dominance via the Mag 7 and the need for blowout beats for AI leaders to sustain valuations.
Google’s Gemini 3: GOOGL’s Gemini 3 was highlighted as less dependent on Nvidia chips, a meaningful development for AI infrastructure dynamics.
Key Tickers: NVDA’s after-hours reaction, TGT’s weak results signaling consumer strain, and GOOGL’s AI positioning were core company discussions.
US Dollar & Treasuries: A detailed look at DXY’s snapback mechanics and Treasury yields, with caution on risk-off signals when yields fall while the dollar rises.
Bitcoin: Bearish near-term technicals with potential support levels flagged, cautioning against catching a falling knife.
Gold: Long-term bullish view on gold with preference to re-enter on a breakout above prior highs rather than during pullbacks.
Consumer Weakness: TGT’s guidance cut and sales decline were tied to broader liquidity tightening and labor market deterioration risks.
Transcript
Hello fellow Rebel Capitals. Hope you're well. So, I wanted to do a reaction video on the hot topic of the day. The hot topic of the week for sure. Maybe the hot topic of the last couple weeks. That's the Nvidia earnings report. Lot riding on this one, that's for sure. Especially since we've seen a little bit of the air come out of the AI bubble. And what's interesting about this is they've got to beat expectations by a mile. And that's just my opinion. We'll see how it plays out here. I think they're going to report in about 7 minutes. So, I just wanted to do this live so you could see my reaction and more importantly, how we could see how the market reacts, like what's the price of Nvidia going to do? What's the S&P 500 going to do? Maybe more importantly, what's the bond market going to do? So let's and let's remember why this is so important is because Nvidia has become about 8% of the S&P 500 because it's a it's a weighted index. So and this really is important for passive flows because if $1 of passive an indiscriminate buyer goes into an S&P 500 index 8 cents of that goes to Nvidia. So Nvidia gets eight cents out of every single dollar that goes into an S&P 500 index fund. I I mean that's it's almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy where on the way up it looks great. It's a huge tailwind for Nvidia. On the way down it like [laughter] it like tur it's like going downhill and then flooring it in your car. So you're already have a quick pace due to just gravity and then you just gun it in addition to that. That's kind of what it would mean because if we see the passive flows change to where instead of net inflows there's net outflows. Well then it's the opposite, right? Then eight cents out of every dollar comes out of Nvidia. Now I'm not saying we're at that point. My buddy Mike Green has studied this a thousand times more than I have. and I had about a 2 or three hour lunch with him in St. Barts back at Hugh's deal, maybe a month ago or something like that or maybe it was two months ago and uh Mike was talking about how his models show that it's really about the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate goes up to 5.56% then we could see net outflows. There's some other things that could lead to it but that's kind of the the biggie, right? Is the unemployment rate. But anyway, getting back, that's why Nvidia is so important. That was the main takeaway there. And as Nvidia goes, you know, it's really tough if Nvidia takes a big hit. It's hard for the S&P 500 to really um stay elevated. But if Nvidia just crushes it and goes up by 10%, probably going to take the S&P along with it. And before we get, let's see, we've got five minutes here. Okay, let's see what markets are doing right now in expectation. So, we start with I think the most important thing that's the bond market, treasuries. So, the 2-year Treasury up a little bit, kind of bouncing around all day today. Um, up 1.3 basis points. So, up flat, I guess. Uh, 10year, uh, two basis points. So, not much. A dollar. Whoa. Oh, whoa. Didn't see that one coming back in April. [laughter] Now, if you guys watch this channel, you know that this is kind of what I was predicting, but uh it took a lot longer than I thought. I thought this thing would snap back. Let's go to a chart here just for the fun of it. This is a six-month chart. And when it came down, you guys remember that after retardation day or liberation day, whichever you choose, after retardation day, the dollar tanks, it goes from like 103, maybe 104, and it just goes down, down, down. I thought it would snap back because what happens, the way the global monetary system is set up, all these dollar, most of these dollars are lent into existence, and they're very short term, by the way. These loans aren't like 30-year mortgages that create the dollars that circulate outside the United States. So, I thought, okay, the dollar goes down, that's great, but if things tighten, which I thought they would due to the tariffs, then that means there's fewer dollars circulating. And what that means is you got to sell assets on your balance sheet, local currency, to get the dollars you need to pay down the dollar denominated debt. And so I would see a dip down, but then I expected we'd have kind of a snap back, maybe not to where it was, but kind of up a little bit. Uh, well to 100. That's kind of what I thought. And we kind of got it right here, but we're seeing it play out. I did not think it would take six months, though. Didn't take didn't. So I was right about the move, but really wrong about the time that it would take to get back to that uh 100 level. We'll have to see if we stay here consistently. I mean that's the trend right now but uh have to see how it plays out. What's interesting is to juxtapose this to the actual narrative that the dollar is crashing, foreigners are dumping dollars and all these things. And although the dollar is absolutely losing purchasing power to goods and services in the United States, that's not really the argument for the dollar crash crowd. The dollar crash crowd is it loses value relative to everything, including gold and Bitcoin. And how's that been playing out lately? And uh other foreign currencies. So we go back to maybe a year, it's down. I mean, we're really high. But then if you zoom out, it puts things into perspective where this goes back to 1990. 1990 we were in the 90s as far as the DXY. And today we're at 100. So call it 35 years later, the dollar is actually higher. And think about what happened during that time. Everything that the dollar crash crowd thought would happen. I mean, they got that right. Deficits exploded, debt exploded, QE, fiscal spending, all of that, it all happened in spades, probably to a greater degree than they were even expecting during the 1990s. And yet, the dollar went up against other foreign currencies. And why is because the mechanics of the global monetary system. All right, let's uh shoot over to CNBC because we're right at 3:59. I don't know if they report right at 4:00. I'm assuming assuming they do, but let's kind of scan the homepage of CNBC here. Uh live. Okay, so let's go to live updates. So NASDAQ Looks like it was up.8% today. I think a lot of that had to do with Google. Oh, you know what's interesting in regards to Nvidia is I was watching Bloomberg at lunch today and they're saying that what's really interesting about Gemini 3 is that it isn't as dependent upon the Nvidia chips. it might not even use them at all or it was trained on something that didn't require Nvidia. You know, I'm not an expert on the underpinnings and the technology of AI, but uh from what I gather, that's what made the Gemini 3 launch such a big deal. And by the way, we're talking about how Nvidia is 8% of the S&P 500. The MAG 7 is like 35 40%. I mean, it's completely bananas, which basically is the AI trade, right? So, the AI trade has problems and it's going to be tough for the uh S&P 500 to stay afloat even with the tailwind of those passive inflows. Let's refresh here. So, you know, it's going back to I don't maybe they haven't reported yet, but what's crazy is you look at the dollar over the last month or so. Dollar's gone up. Not much though. I mean, just was it 989 and now it's at 100. So, it's gone up slightly. But what's kind of wild is over the last month interest rates I guess they're up slightly too. Okay. So that's actually a good thing. That's a good thing. You you want to see that happen. What we don't want to see and what is a big red flag is when yields are going down and dollars going up. That's when you're in the the no bueno zone because that's when you get the message from the market, the signal from the market that it's all about risk off. Okay, let me refresh. Rebounds ahead of earning report. Okay, when does the earning report come out? I thought it was four o'clock here. That would be ironic if I got the time wrong because I asked AI when the report came out and AI said that it was 4:00 today. [laughter] I kind of be a little little funny there. Okay, this is breaking. I don't know if that stocks close higher snapping losing streak. Okay. Yeah, we got that. We got that. That's pretty crazy. Did that say Josh? Did you see that popup right there? Oh, Josh isn't here anymore. I thought I saw a popup there on CNBC saying that it was $59 a month to be a premium member of CNBC. [snorts] What? That is crazy. And I'm just going to do a shameless plug here. It's $97 a month to join Rebel Capitals Pro and that and you get direct access to yours truly, Chris Mintosh, Brent Johnson, Patrick Serzna, just to name a few along with [laughter] I think the best research on the planet Earth, model portfolios and everything else. That's 97. I can assure you it's a hell of a lot better than CNBC's premium service. Like, who would you rather have direct access to? Jim Kramer or Brent Johnson [laughter] or Chris McIntosh or come on. All right, so we're waiting here. Waiting. Waiting. Waiting. Let's go. Report. I saw pictures last night of Jensen at the White House with Musk and a couple other guys and the talking heads on Bloomberg were saying how that's unusual that you see these tech CEOs having so many meals with like the head of Saudi Arabia and Trump and all these things and but that just tells you the world we live in right now is all about crony capitalism. That's all about crony capitalism. And Trump is loves it. He He loves the fact that these CEOs have to come to him and ask permission for everything. I mean, for a megalomaniac, that's like his dream come true. [laughter] And regardless of what you think of Trump, you got I mean, you got him when he's a megalomaniac. And so, I just thought it was very telling that Jensen the day prior to this big earnings report was at the White House. It just shows you where his priorities are because sucking up to Trump or the political elite is far more important than just one earnings report in today's day and age. Now, normally if we were in a free market, that would not be the case because the government wouldn't have its hands in everything like a a puppet master trying to centrally plan every turn left and turn right. So, we're not getting any updates here. You know what's uh the the real time data is often Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin, because it's just always trading. So, if it goes up real fast or down real fast, usually the price of Bitcoin gets the news before it hits the tape on CNBC. So, let's go over there. and uh trading down on the day big time as you can see under 90 but not at the lows. Not at the lows. I think intraday it got yikes. Yeah, intraday it got down to 88.5. That's a that's a big move down. And uh unfortunately the the chart on Bitcoin does not look good. That's and I know if you're a long-term holdler, you don't really care, but uh I think even if you're a long-term holdler, you care what the price does in the in the near term. And um I'm no technical analysis or analyst, but looks like you're getting support here. It's not that great at 82. So you I wouldn't be surprised if we get down to that uh that level before we see a bounce. You know, I see a lot of people even in Rebel Capitals Pro, a lot of our members say they look at value and they're like, "Well, I should buy." And I'm the first one to say, "You got to buy things when they're cheap and sell them when they're expensive." But I don't like catching a falling knife. So, for me, that's where the charts really come into play. I don't want to buy something when it's going down. Now, I want to buy value, but not when it's going straight down. Uh, I want to buy value when it's flattened out or you got a little bit of an of an uptrend like with gold as a good example. If we go over to while we're waiting here, if we go over to gold, as most of you know, we look at this chart and I'm really bullish on gold longterm. I would say 3, five, 10 years, etc. But uh you know it peaks out at 4,300 roughly and then we pull back and right around here or so I sold my gold holdings to take it down to about 10% of my portfolio. It was a lot more because the price had gone up so much. And since that time I'm happy to just sit on the sidelines. It's just kind of now I'd love to get back in, but um I'm not going to get back in and while it's just doing this, uh I would get back in once it breaks through this all-time high and let's say it sustains at a level above 4,300 for like 3 or 4 days, then I want to get back in because what you're doing, sure, you're you're missing a little bit of this this spread right here, but you're also So reducing the probabilities that you ride it down to whatever the hell it goes down to and that that again trying to catch a falling knife. I I I don't think that's a real good strategy. At least for me it hasn't worked. Um it's it's worked much much better for me to have something I like and then wait for the chart to tell me, okay, now is a a good entry port point as far as the probabilities when the trend changes. Right. Okay. Well, this is kind of fake news. I don't know. Maybe you guys can tell me if I got the time wrong. I thought that they were reporting right at 4:00. Let me know in the chat. Oh, it was 5:00 p.m. Eastern time. See, I thought that they were going to do the press conference or the uh the call, the investor call at 5. Oh, Joseph is saying 420. I don't know if he's just saying that because he's a fan of smoking weed, maybe. [laughter] No, everyone's saying it's 420. Okay, so either everyone on the live stream right now is a big fan of smoking weed or it's actually [laughter] we're all stoned out of our mind sitting here watching the Nvidia earnings call. [laughter] Blaze it. There you go. No, really, it is 4:20. All right, it's 4:20. Okay. Well, then we've got uh 10 minutes, 11 minutes. So, I'll hang on. I was only planning on doing a live stream until about 4:15. But uh I'll hang on just till 4:20 to see what it is and maybe discuss it for uh three or four minutes and then I'll I'll sign off and then tomorrow morning I'll probably do a video on what the earnings call was all about and how it moved markets up, down, sideways. I would be surprised if it's sideways. That's that's there's so much focus on this particular earnings call that um yeah, I'd be surprised with sideways, but who knows? At the end of the day, there are no certainties. There are only probabilities. So, let's go back and see what rates are doing here. Oh, you know what is interesting while we wait that I didn't have a chance to do a video on today, but if I would have had time, I I definitely would have. And that's the minutes from the last Fed meeting came out, which dramatically changed the probabilities of the Fed actually dropping rates the next meeting. So, check this out. Let's let me do the screen share again. Whoa, not that one. Uh, where's the There we go. That's the one I want. And let's shoot over to the CME group. Let me refresh. This is Fed watch. This is going to give us the odds. So, starting this morning, it was about 5050. You see, one day ago, right here, 50/50. And we got the Fed minutes out that uh said there was like quite a bit of division within the Fed officials as to whether or not they wanted to hike or p excuse me not hike but pause or drop rates in um December. And so this the market perceived that to be very hawkish. And that's why you saw a big change right here. Now, what's wild is you did get an uptick in rates, but yeah, not that much. Not that much. So, it seems like the the Treasury market's kind of blowing that off. You had a knee-jerk reaction, which is not unsurprising due to the algorithms. I think algorithms play such a big part in how these markets move. like they're programmed to whenever a bit of news comes out, they're buy or sell or hold or whatever. And they do it across all assets. So you see almost the exact same moves in the 2-year as the treasure as the 10-year. I'm similar looking charts. So my guess is it's just algorithm. You get hawkish report from the Fed minutes, then sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, and then kind of the people who are actually thinking in the markets, not just algorithm trading. They're the ones like, I don't know, kind of offsides. That was already priced in, and they start to buy and you usually get the yields kind of going back down to where they were prior to the news coming out. I I see that happen over and over and over and over again. It's not just with the Treasury market. It's with a lot of stocks. It's with the S&P, NASDAQ, pretty much uh everything that I pay attention to really. Even the dollar. Even the dollar. Let's go back to the dollar because I'll bet Yeah, I don't know when the Fed minutes came out, but even if it didn't come out at 8:21, I'll bet you some insiders got the intel because let's be honest, I mean, you think that JP Morgan doesn't get the Fed minutes prior to it hitting the market at least like four or five hours? I mean, of course they do. JP Morgan does, all the insiders, the big banksters, they get that intel in advance so they can just frontr run it. That's why every single quarter when you look at JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs, their trading profits, their trading profits are always like, you know, trillions of dollar. Not literally, but it's like 90% of their profit comes from trading. And you you think, in fact, a fun story is you guys know my buddy Steve in St. Barts who's one of the best traders maybe of all time and he started his career managing money hedge funds and trading in Japan in the late 1980s and then he was you know made tons of money on the way up in the bubble of the dot and then on the way down and the GFC and commodities and emerging markets. I mean he is the OG of the OGs and he believes that uh going back to these algorithms that they really are influential especially in the short term with what happens. And so he is trying to pay attention to these things more and more and more often. And um he's actually making a lot of money because he will fade it sometimes when he sees that move in a particular stock that he follows. And he'll be I've I've been with him while he's trading. He's like, "Oh, look, this thing's going straight up. Oh, that's just algorithms. They just know that there's a lot of retail on the buy side for, let's just say, calls." And what they're doing is they're driving the price down to get all these guys to sell. and and then they're taking the opposite side of it and they're just completely manipulating the market and um then sure enough, you know, it just kind of does exactly what he thought it would do. It's just uh it's wild. It's really wild. Different game for sure. Oh, let's see. Nvidia earnings. Yes, I'm just reading some of the people in the chat. uh JP Morgan. Oh, you know, [snorts] I was talking about was uh front running there. And that's another thing that that Steve has always said. He's like, it's very very difficult to have an edge. And you know, if you read the market wizards books, one of the things, one of the conclusions that it is possible to beat the market, but it is extremely extremely challenging. And I remember one time I was uh I think we were over at Hughes and we were having a beer and I was asking him I'm like if 99% of the traders I know we've got retail in there but even he was talking about how 99% of the guys that he started with or he saw as professional traders on Wall Street throughout his career even they failed. And I was like okay well Steve how how does that work? Because almost every single time I hear earnings report from one of these big banks, they make hundreds of millions of dollars, almost billions of dollars sometimes in trading. So, how if they're not that good and 99% of them fail and they don't have an edge, how the hell are they making all this money? It's like, oh, that's easy. They're just front running retail. It's fees and front running. So, it's basically insider information. And I'm like, "Okay, well that makes sense." He's like, "They're" and he says, "On their actual trading, what you would define as trading," he goes, "I guarantee they're losing money every single quarter. It's just they'll lose a hund00 million in trading and they'll make $500 million on just front running and front running their their clients or front running because of the information they're getting from Robin Hood or just uh on fees." And it's like, okay, now that makes sense as to why trading is so difficult. So few people can actually win, but yet they're so consistent as far as their their profits. Okay, so let's see here. We've got Ooh, looks like two minutes. Two minutes in counting. Two minutes in counting. Let's go see how markets are moving. if they are. Oh, let me do the screen share. Okay, so futures kind of blah. Oh, here's another big signal. I think oil trading below 60 again, 5953. When you combine that with what's happening with Target, what's happening with the tightness uh the lack of liquidity in the money markets and uh I did a story earlier on how Gunlock was talking about that. It's all one and the same. It's all you go through this cycle and the economy starts to deteriorate. The labor market starts to deteriorate. That makes the tide go out. Then you start see who's swimming naked. Once you start seeing more and more people swim naked, in other words, more cockroaches, then counterparty risk, perceived counterparty risk skyrockets. Liquidity dries up and um then you see it play out as far as interest rates and then you circle back to the real economy and then you start to see more and more and more of the the news kind of lining up. And if you guys didn't watch that video, Target came out today or maybe it was yesterday and reported just is ugly, ugly, ugly. Few make fewer uh store trips. The shoppers are looking for deals. Uh posted thirdarter sales decline and cut the top end of its full year earning guidance. I mean, it was it was nothing but bad news when it comes to Target. But like I said, that lines up with what we're seeing with a lack of liquidity in money markets, and that lines up with what we're seeing with the cockroaches. That lines up with what we're seeing with uh Jamie Diamond, with uh Jeff Gunlock, and what we're seeing with Chipotle, what we're seeing with Amazon, what we're seeing with Verizon laying off 15,000 workers. It's all it's all tied together. I think it's all for the same reasons and that's a decline in labor market, decline in the economy. All right, let me Oh, no. Hit the wrong button. Okay, let's go over here and let's go back. Okay, so it is 420. Let's see. Come on. Come on. Come on. Give me some earnings report. Where's their live feed? This could be a real big day tomorrow because we get this earnings report plus we get the September jobs. I think we get initial claims tomorrow as well. So, I might do like two or three videos tomorrow. And we got a a whiteboard video coming out tonight on the cockroaches. So, you guys will enjoy that. Make sure you stay tuned to the George Gammon channel for that one. Well, it's 420, guys. 421. Have you guys Let me go over to the chat and see if you guys have seen anything. Revenue up 22%. That sounds good. [laughter] That sounds really good. But the key is expectations, right? It was a beat, but they have to beat by a lot. Okay. So you guys all see it before I did. That's kind That's funny. I'm the one doing the live streaming the reaction and you guys get the news before I do. Uh reports 57 billion earning in Q3 fake earnings Santa Rally. Okay. Um after hours it's up 5%. Okay, that's what I wanted to know. So the market is perceiving this to be very good news. It's a huge beat. Yeah. See, it needed to be a huge beat. Stock is up 10 bucks. But this could be a knee-jerk reaction. You know, this is like retail. It's it's it's like I don't know whether I'd fade this or not. I I'd be very interested to see how this plays out and what happens at the open tomorrow. And if we get a big uh kind of jump up due to oh my gosh, beat and retail. The Robin Hood crowd is like, "Bye bye, bye bye bye." And the pros are like, "Fade, fade, fade, fade, fade." That's that's what's been happening in the past for a lot of different stocks, not just Nvidia. So, we'll have to see. Let me go over to Oh, here are the numbers. There we go. Finally. Okay. Okay. Earnings per share uh A130 versus 125. That's not that much of a beat. What were you guys? I don't know that that's revenue 57. Expectation was for basically 55. I mean, it's a beat, but I don't know if it's a blowout. I don't know. based on this alone, I I'm fa if it's up five or 10 bucks or whatever. I I'm I'm not doing it literally, but I I would and this is not investing advice or anything, but I I would fade that cuz that's not it's a beat for sure, and that's fantastic for Nvidia, but in But that's it's weird because the expectations are actually for a beat of expectations. Like, you've got to have blowout numbers to impress the market and to really justify. And I think a lot of this goes into their backlog. So we'll probably see the stock move quite a bit after hours or at least in the morning due to what is said on the earnings call here at uh 5:00. But that's not I don't know. I just maybe I'm wrong. I I don't know that that should justify it going up 10. I mean, a beat like this, like I said, it's kind of what is expected. It's not like they had earnings per share at two bucks and the estimate was 125. Stronger than expected. Yes. Is this the same? Oh, that's the same thing. Okay. All right. So, there you go, guys. uh if you want my base case the and if it's I don't have the chart in front of me but if what you guys are saying is true that it's up 10 bucks or 10% or whatever in after hours due to that beat um I'll take the under as far as the close tomorrow. [laughter] I'll take the under on that one. Uh we'll see how it plays out and oh fading fast $5 off the top. [laughter] There you go. There you go. There you go. We'll have to see how it uh how it uh unfolds. Now it's only up three to 4%. It keeps changing here. I'm reading the chat. All right, guys. Thanks for the updates. Thanks for hanging out with me. And as always, make sure you stand up for freedom, liberty, free market capitalism, which is the complete opposite of crony capitalism, which is what we have been seeing. and I will see you on the next video.
Nvidia Earnings Report REACTION (Real Time)
Summary
Transcript
Hello fellow Rebel Capitals. Hope you're well. So, I wanted to do a reaction video on the hot topic of the day. The hot topic of the week for sure. Maybe the hot topic of the last couple weeks. That's the Nvidia earnings report. Lot riding on this one, that's for sure. Especially since we've seen a little bit of the air come out of the AI bubble. And what's interesting about this is they've got to beat expectations by a mile. And that's just my opinion. We'll see how it plays out here. I think they're going to report in about 7 minutes. So, I just wanted to do this live so you could see my reaction and more importantly, how we could see how the market reacts, like what's the price of Nvidia going to do? What's the S&P 500 going to do? Maybe more importantly, what's the bond market going to do? So let's and let's remember why this is so important is because Nvidia has become about 8% of the S&P 500 because it's a it's a weighted index. So and this really is important for passive flows because if $1 of passive an indiscriminate buyer goes into an S&P 500 index 8 cents of that goes to Nvidia. So Nvidia gets eight cents out of every single dollar that goes into an S&P 500 index fund. I I mean that's it's almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy where on the way up it looks great. It's a huge tailwind for Nvidia. On the way down it like [laughter] it like tur it's like going downhill and then flooring it in your car. So you're already have a quick pace due to just gravity and then you just gun it in addition to that. That's kind of what it would mean because if we see the passive flows change to where instead of net inflows there's net outflows. Well then it's the opposite, right? Then eight cents out of every dollar comes out of Nvidia. Now I'm not saying we're at that point. My buddy Mike Green has studied this a thousand times more than I have. and I had about a 2 or three hour lunch with him in St. Barts back at Hugh's deal, maybe a month ago or something like that or maybe it was two months ago and uh Mike was talking about how his models show that it's really about the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate goes up to 5.56% then we could see net outflows. There's some other things that could lead to it but that's kind of the the biggie, right? Is the unemployment rate. But anyway, getting back, that's why Nvidia is so important. That was the main takeaway there. And as Nvidia goes, you know, it's really tough if Nvidia takes a big hit. It's hard for the S&P 500 to really um stay elevated. But if Nvidia just crushes it and goes up by 10%, probably going to take the S&P along with it. And before we get, let's see, we've got five minutes here. Okay, let's see what markets are doing right now in expectation. So, we start with I think the most important thing that's the bond market, treasuries. So, the 2-year Treasury up a little bit, kind of bouncing around all day today. Um, up 1.3 basis points. So, up flat, I guess. Uh, 10year, uh, two basis points. So, not much. A dollar. Whoa. Oh, whoa. Didn't see that one coming back in April. [laughter] Now, if you guys watch this channel, you know that this is kind of what I was predicting, but uh it took a lot longer than I thought. I thought this thing would snap back. Let's go to a chart here just for the fun of it. This is a six-month chart. And when it came down, you guys remember that after retardation day or liberation day, whichever you choose, after retardation day, the dollar tanks, it goes from like 103, maybe 104, and it just goes down, down, down. I thought it would snap back because what happens, the way the global monetary system is set up, all these dollar, most of these dollars are lent into existence, and they're very short term, by the way. These loans aren't like 30-year mortgages that create the dollars that circulate outside the United States. So, I thought, okay, the dollar goes down, that's great, but if things tighten, which I thought they would due to the tariffs, then that means there's fewer dollars circulating. And what that means is you got to sell assets on your balance sheet, local currency, to get the dollars you need to pay down the dollar denominated debt. And so I would see a dip down, but then I expected we'd have kind of a snap back, maybe not to where it was, but kind of up a little bit. Uh, well to 100. That's kind of what I thought. And we kind of got it right here, but we're seeing it play out. I did not think it would take six months, though. Didn't take didn't. So I was right about the move, but really wrong about the time that it would take to get back to that uh 100 level. We'll have to see if we stay here consistently. I mean that's the trend right now but uh have to see how it plays out. What's interesting is to juxtapose this to the actual narrative that the dollar is crashing, foreigners are dumping dollars and all these things. And although the dollar is absolutely losing purchasing power to goods and services in the United States, that's not really the argument for the dollar crash crowd. The dollar crash crowd is it loses value relative to everything, including gold and Bitcoin. And how's that been playing out lately? And uh other foreign currencies. So we go back to maybe a year, it's down. I mean, we're really high. But then if you zoom out, it puts things into perspective where this goes back to 1990. 1990 we were in the 90s as far as the DXY. And today we're at 100. So call it 35 years later, the dollar is actually higher. And think about what happened during that time. Everything that the dollar crash crowd thought would happen. I mean, they got that right. Deficits exploded, debt exploded, QE, fiscal spending, all of that, it all happened in spades, probably to a greater degree than they were even expecting during the 1990s. And yet, the dollar went up against other foreign currencies. And why is because the mechanics of the global monetary system. All right, let's uh shoot over to CNBC because we're right at 3:59. I don't know if they report right at 4:00. I'm assuming assuming they do, but let's kind of scan the homepage of CNBC here. Uh live. Okay, so let's go to live updates. So NASDAQ Looks like it was up.8% today. I think a lot of that had to do with Google. Oh, you know what's interesting in regards to Nvidia is I was watching Bloomberg at lunch today and they're saying that what's really interesting about Gemini 3 is that it isn't as dependent upon the Nvidia chips. it might not even use them at all or it was trained on something that didn't require Nvidia. You know, I'm not an expert on the underpinnings and the technology of AI, but uh from what I gather, that's what made the Gemini 3 launch such a big deal. And by the way, we're talking about how Nvidia is 8% of the S&P 500. The MAG 7 is like 35 40%. I mean, it's completely bananas, which basically is the AI trade, right? So, the AI trade has problems and it's going to be tough for the uh S&P 500 to stay afloat even with the tailwind of those passive inflows. Let's refresh here. So, you know, it's going back to I don't maybe they haven't reported yet, but what's crazy is you look at the dollar over the last month or so. Dollar's gone up. Not much though. I mean, just was it 989 and now it's at 100. So, it's gone up slightly. But what's kind of wild is over the last month interest rates I guess they're up slightly too. Okay. So that's actually a good thing. That's a good thing. You you want to see that happen. What we don't want to see and what is a big red flag is when yields are going down and dollars going up. That's when you're in the the no bueno zone because that's when you get the message from the market, the signal from the market that it's all about risk off. Okay, let me refresh. Rebounds ahead of earning report. Okay, when does the earning report come out? I thought it was four o'clock here. That would be ironic if I got the time wrong because I asked AI when the report came out and AI said that it was 4:00 today. [laughter] I kind of be a little little funny there. Okay, this is breaking. I don't know if that stocks close higher snapping losing streak. Okay. Yeah, we got that. We got that. That's pretty crazy. Did that say Josh? Did you see that popup right there? Oh, Josh isn't here anymore. I thought I saw a popup there on CNBC saying that it was $59 a month to be a premium member of CNBC. [snorts] What? That is crazy. And I'm just going to do a shameless plug here. It's $97 a month to join Rebel Capitals Pro and that and you get direct access to yours truly, Chris Mintosh, Brent Johnson, Patrick Serzna, just to name a few along with [laughter] I think the best research on the planet Earth, model portfolios and everything else. That's 97. I can assure you it's a hell of a lot better than CNBC's premium service. Like, who would you rather have direct access to? Jim Kramer or Brent Johnson [laughter] or Chris McIntosh or come on. All right, so we're waiting here. Waiting. Waiting. Waiting. Let's go. Report. I saw pictures last night of Jensen at the White House with Musk and a couple other guys and the talking heads on Bloomberg were saying how that's unusual that you see these tech CEOs having so many meals with like the head of Saudi Arabia and Trump and all these things and but that just tells you the world we live in right now is all about crony capitalism. That's all about crony capitalism. And Trump is loves it. He He loves the fact that these CEOs have to come to him and ask permission for everything. I mean, for a megalomaniac, that's like his dream come true. [laughter] And regardless of what you think of Trump, you got I mean, you got him when he's a megalomaniac. And so, I just thought it was very telling that Jensen the day prior to this big earnings report was at the White House. It just shows you where his priorities are because sucking up to Trump or the political elite is far more important than just one earnings report in today's day and age. Now, normally if we were in a free market, that would not be the case because the government wouldn't have its hands in everything like a a puppet master trying to centrally plan every turn left and turn right. So, we're not getting any updates here. You know what's uh the the real time data is often Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin, because it's just always trading. So, if it goes up real fast or down real fast, usually the price of Bitcoin gets the news before it hits the tape on CNBC. So, let's go over there. and uh trading down on the day big time as you can see under 90 but not at the lows. Not at the lows. I think intraday it got yikes. Yeah, intraday it got down to 88.5. That's a that's a big move down. And uh unfortunately the the chart on Bitcoin does not look good. That's and I know if you're a long-term holdler, you don't really care, but uh I think even if you're a long-term holdler, you care what the price does in the in the near term. And um I'm no technical analysis or analyst, but looks like you're getting support here. It's not that great at 82. So you I wouldn't be surprised if we get down to that uh that level before we see a bounce. You know, I see a lot of people even in Rebel Capitals Pro, a lot of our members say they look at value and they're like, "Well, I should buy." And I'm the first one to say, "You got to buy things when they're cheap and sell them when they're expensive." But I don't like catching a falling knife. So, for me, that's where the charts really come into play. I don't want to buy something when it's going down. Now, I want to buy value, but not when it's going straight down. Uh, I want to buy value when it's flattened out or you got a little bit of an of an uptrend like with gold as a good example. If we go over to while we're waiting here, if we go over to gold, as most of you know, we look at this chart and I'm really bullish on gold longterm. I would say 3, five, 10 years, etc. But uh you know it peaks out at 4,300 roughly and then we pull back and right around here or so I sold my gold holdings to take it down to about 10% of my portfolio. It was a lot more because the price had gone up so much. And since that time I'm happy to just sit on the sidelines. It's just kind of now I'd love to get back in, but um I'm not going to get back in and while it's just doing this, uh I would get back in once it breaks through this all-time high and let's say it sustains at a level above 4,300 for like 3 or 4 days, then I want to get back in because what you're doing, sure, you're you're missing a little bit of this this spread right here, but you're also So reducing the probabilities that you ride it down to whatever the hell it goes down to and that that again trying to catch a falling knife. I I I don't think that's a real good strategy. At least for me it hasn't worked. Um it's it's worked much much better for me to have something I like and then wait for the chart to tell me, okay, now is a a good entry port point as far as the probabilities when the trend changes. Right. Okay. Well, this is kind of fake news. I don't know. Maybe you guys can tell me if I got the time wrong. I thought that they were reporting right at 4:00. Let me know in the chat. Oh, it was 5:00 p.m. Eastern time. See, I thought that they were going to do the press conference or the uh the call, the investor call at 5. Oh, Joseph is saying 420. I don't know if he's just saying that because he's a fan of smoking weed, maybe. [laughter] No, everyone's saying it's 420. Okay, so either everyone on the live stream right now is a big fan of smoking weed or it's actually [laughter] we're all stoned out of our mind sitting here watching the Nvidia earnings call. [laughter] Blaze it. There you go. No, really, it is 4:20. All right, it's 4:20. Okay. Well, then we've got uh 10 minutes, 11 minutes. So, I'll hang on. I was only planning on doing a live stream until about 4:15. But uh I'll hang on just till 4:20 to see what it is and maybe discuss it for uh three or four minutes and then I'll I'll sign off and then tomorrow morning I'll probably do a video on what the earnings call was all about and how it moved markets up, down, sideways. I would be surprised if it's sideways. That's that's there's so much focus on this particular earnings call that um yeah, I'd be surprised with sideways, but who knows? At the end of the day, there are no certainties. There are only probabilities. So, let's go back and see what rates are doing here. Oh, you know what is interesting while we wait that I didn't have a chance to do a video on today, but if I would have had time, I I definitely would have. And that's the minutes from the last Fed meeting came out, which dramatically changed the probabilities of the Fed actually dropping rates the next meeting. So, check this out. Let's let me do the screen share again. Whoa, not that one. Uh, where's the There we go. That's the one I want. And let's shoot over to the CME group. Let me refresh. This is Fed watch. This is going to give us the odds. So, starting this morning, it was about 5050. You see, one day ago, right here, 50/50. And we got the Fed minutes out that uh said there was like quite a bit of division within the Fed officials as to whether or not they wanted to hike or p excuse me not hike but pause or drop rates in um December. And so this the market perceived that to be very hawkish. And that's why you saw a big change right here. Now, what's wild is you did get an uptick in rates, but yeah, not that much. Not that much. So, it seems like the the Treasury market's kind of blowing that off. You had a knee-jerk reaction, which is not unsurprising due to the algorithms. I think algorithms play such a big part in how these markets move. like they're programmed to whenever a bit of news comes out, they're buy or sell or hold or whatever. And they do it across all assets. So you see almost the exact same moves in the 2-year as the treasure as the 10-year. I'm similar looking charts. So my guess is it's just algorithm. You get hawkish report from the Fed minutes, then sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, and then kind of the people who are actually thinking in the markets, not just algorithm trading. They're the ones like, I don't know, kind of offsides. That was already priced in, and they start to buy and you usually get the yields kind of going back down to where they were prior to the news coming out. I I see that happen over and over and over and over again. It's not just with the Treasury market. It's with a lot of stocks. It's with the S&P, NASDAQ, pretty much uh everything that I pay attention to really. Even the dollar. Even the dollar. Let's go back to the dollar because I'll bet Yeah, I don't know when the Fed minutes came out, but even if it didn't come out at 8:21, I'll bet you some insiders got the intel because let's be honest, I mean, you think that JP Morgan doesn't get the Fed minutes prior to it hitting the market at least like four or five hours? I mean, of course they do. JP Morgan does, all the insiders, the big banksters, they get that intel in advance so they can just frontr run it. That's why every single quarter when you look at JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs, their trading profits, their trading profits are always like, you know, trillions of dollar. Not literally, but it's like 90% of their profit comes from trading. And you you think, in fact, a fun story is you guys know my buddy Steve in St. Barts who's one of the best traders maybe of all time and he started his career managing money hedge funds and trading in Japan in the late 1980s and then he was you know made tons of money on the way up in the bubble of the dot and then on the way down and the GFC and commodities and emerging markets. I mean he is the OG of the OGs and he believes that uh going back to these algorithms that they really are influential especially in the short term with what happens. And so he is trying to pay attention to these things more and more and more often. And um he's actually making a lot of money because he will fade it sometimes when he sees that move in a particular stock that he follows. And he'll be I've I've been with him while he's trading. He's like, "Oh, look, this thing's going straight up. Oh, that's just algorithms. They just know that there's a lot of retail on the buy side for, let's just say, calls." And what they're doing is they're driving the price down to get all these guys to sell. and and then they're taking the opposite side of it and they're just completely manipulating the market and um then sure enough, you know, it just kind of does exactly what he thought it would do. It's just uh it's wild. It's really wild. Different game for sure. Oh, let's see. Nvidia earnings. Yes, I'm just reading some of the people in the chat. uh JP Morgan. Oh, you know, [snorts] I was talking about was uh front running there. And that's another thing that that Steve has always said. He's like, it's very very difficult to have an edge. And you know, if you read the market wizards books, one of the things, one of the conclusions that it is possible to beat the market, but it is extremely extremely challenging. And I remember one time I was uh I think we were over at Hughes and we were having a beer and I was asking him I'm like if 99% of the traders I know we've got retail in there but even he was talking about how 99% of the guys that he started with or he saw as professional traders on Wall Street throughout his career even they failed. And I was like okay well Steve how how does that work? Because almost every single time I hear earnings report from one of these big banks, they make hundreds of millions of dollars, almost billions of dollars sometimes in trading. So, how if they're not that good and 99% of them fail and they don't have an edge, how the hell are they making all this money? It's like, oh, that's easy. They're just front running retail. It's fees and front running. So, it's basically insider information. And I'm like, "Okay, well that makes sense." He's like, "They're" and he says, "On their actual trading, what you would define as trading," he goes, "I guarantee they're losing money every single quarter. It's just they'll lose a hund00 million in trading and they'll make $500 million on just front running and front running their their clients or front running because of the information they're getting from Robin Hood or just uh on fees." And it's like, okay, now that makes sense as to why trading is so difficult. So few people can actually win, but yet they're so consistent as far as their their profits. Okay, so let's see here. We've got Ooh, looks like two minutes. Two minutes in counting. Two minutes in counting. Let's go see how markets are moving. if they are. Oh, let me do the screen share. Okay, so futures kind of blah. Oh, here's another big signal. I think oil trading below 60 again, 5953. When you combine that with what's happening with Target, what's happening with the tightness uh the lack of liquidity in the money markets and uh I did a story earlier on how Gunlock was talking about that. It's all one and the same. It's all you go through this cycle and the economy starts to deteriorate. The labor market starts to deteriorate. That makes the tide go out. Then you start see who's swimming naked. Once you start seeing more and more people swim naked, in other words, more cockroaches, then counterparty risk, perceived counterparty risk skyrockets. Liquidity dries up and um then you see it play out as far as interest rates and then you circle back to the real economy and then you start to see more and more and more of the the news kind of lining up. And if you guys didn't watch that video, Target came out today or maybe it was yesterday and reported just is ugly, ugly, ugly. Few make fewer uh store trips. The shoppers are looking for deals. Uh posted thirdarter sales decline and cut the top end of its full year earning guidance. I mean, it was it was nothing but bad news when it comes to Target. But like I said, that lines up with what we're seeing with a lack of liquidity in money markets, and that lines up with what we're seeing with the cockroaches. That lines up with what we're seeing with uh Jamie Diamond, with uh Jeff Gunlock, and what we're seeing with Chipotle, what we're seeing with Amazon, what we're seeing with Verizon laying off 15,000 workers. It's all it's all tied together. I think it's all for the same reasons and that's a decline in labor market, decline in the economy. All right, let me Oh, no. Hit the wrong button. Okay, let's go over here and let's go back. Okay, so it is 420. Let's see. Come on. Come on. Come on. Give me some earnings report. Where's their live feed? This could be a real big day tomorrow because we get this earnings report plus we get the September jobs. I think we get initial claims tomorrow as well. So, I might do like two or three videos tomorrow. And we got a a whiteboard video coming out tonight on the cockroaches. So, you guys will enjoy that. Make sure you stay tuned to the George Gammon channel for that one. Well, it's 420, guys. 421. Have you guys Let me go over to the chat and see if you guys have seen anything. Revenue up 22%. That sounds good. [laughter] That sounds really good. But the key is expectations, right? It was a beat, but they have to beat by a lot. Okay. So you guys all see it before I did. That's kind That's funny. I'm the one doing the live streaming the reaction and you guys get the news before I do. Uh reports 57 billion earning in Q3 fake earnings Santa Rally. Okay. Um after hours it's up 5%. Okay, that's what I wanted to know. So the market is perceiving this to be very good news. It's a huge beat. Yeah. See, it needed to be a huge beat. Stock is up 10 bucks. But this could be a knee-jerk reaction. You know, this is like retail. It's it's it's like I don't know whether I'd fade this or not. I I'd be very interested to see how this plays out and what happens at the open tomorrow. And if we get a big uh kind of jump up due to oh my gosh, beat and retail. The Robin Hood crowd is like, "Bye bye, bye bye bye." And the pros are like, "Fade, fade, fade, fade, fade." That's that's what's been happening in the past for a lot of different stocks, not just Nvidia. So, we'll have to see. Let me go over to Oh, here are the numbers. There we go. Finally. Okay. Okay. Earnings per share uh A130 versus 125. That's not that much of a beat. What were you guys? I don't know that that's revenue 57. Expectation was for basically 55. I mean, it's a beat, but I don't know if it's a blowout. I don't know. based on this alone, I I'm fa if it's up five or 10 bucks or whatever. I I'm I'm not doing it literally, but I I would and this is not investing advice or anything, but I I would fade that cuz that's not it's a beat for sure, and that's fantastic for Nvidia, but in But that's it's weird because the expectations are actually for a beat of expectations. Like, you've got to have blowout numbers to impress the market and to really justify. And I think a lot of this goes into their backlog. So we'll probably see the stock move quite a bit after hours or at least in the morning due to what is said on the earnings call here at uh 5:00. But that's not I don't know. I just maybe I'm wrong. I I don't know that that should justify it going up 10. I mean, a beat like this, like I said, it's kind of what is expected. It's not like they had earnings per share at two bucks and the estimate was 125. Stronger than expected. Yes. Is this the same? Oh, that's the same thing. Okay. All right. So, there you go, guys. uh if you want my base case the and if it's I don't have the chart in front of me but if what you guys are saying is true that it's up 10 bucks or 10% or whatever in after hours due to that beat um I'll take the under as far as the close tomorrow. [laughter] I'll take the under on that one. Uh we'll see how it plays out and oh fading fast $5 off the top. [laughter] There you go. There you go. There you go. We'll have to see how it uh how it uh unfolds. Now it's only up three to 4%. It keeps changing here. I'm reading the chat. All right, guys. Thanks for the updates. Thanks for hanging out with me. And as always, make sure you stand up for freedom, liberty, free market capitalism, which is the complete opposite of crony capitalism, which is what we have been seeing. and I will see you on the next video.