Peter Krauth: Silver Price at Triple Digits, Here's What Happens Next
Summary
Silver Breakout: Silver’s surge to triple digits is attributed to multi-year supply deficits and accelerating investment demand, with expectations for a healthy consolidation before further gains.
Miners Re-Rating: The guest argues silver miners are primed for a major revaluation as analysts update models to higher silver prices and margins expand over coming quarters.
Developers’ Upside: Producers trade near ~2x NAV while developers hover around ~0.2x NAV, implying significant catch-up potential and highlighting developers and quality smaller producers as focus areas.
Asia Demand: China’s dominant solar manufacturing and refining capacity plus persistent premiums signal strong ongoing demand; India is also paying premiums and substituting into silver jewelry.
Industrial Offtake: Large buyers like Samsung are securing silver via supply agreements and pre-funding, with potential solid-state battery demand adding to industrial pull.
Solar Dynamics: Copper substitution faces technical and retooling hurdles; higher panel costs could spur subsidies, creating a feedback loop supportive of silver demand.
Market Timing: Historical bull-market drawdowns of 15–30% suggest a possible pullback is a buyable reset; the guest expects year-end prices higher than today.
Equity Leverage: Silver stocks have underperformed the metal in recent years but may flip to positive leverage as cash flows and valuations catch up.
Transcript
[music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Peter Kraut, editor of Silver Stock Investor and Silver Adviser. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you. >> Always a pleasure, Charlotte. Thanks for having me. >> Yes, of course. and we're catching up from our last conversation in December. So, it hasn't actually been very long, but a lot has changed for silver. So, we need to definitely start there. We just had silver hit a huge milestone in the last couple of days, reaching that tripledigit level for the first time ever. So, we'll get into all the nuances, but when you were seeing that playing out, you've been calling for that for years at this point. What was going through your head >> finally? And how did this happen so fast? Both, [laughter] you know, it's kind of a mixed feeling because you you've I've been expecting it for a long time, but when it actually gets there, you it and plus the way it happened so quickly, it's hard to process, but um as you said, to some extent, not completely surprising. Uh just sort of the pace of it was is what was surprising. Well, and let's break that down because it did move very quickly. And it's funny because I think everybody who follows silver knows that it can have huge volatility, these big moves to the upside and downside. So, in theory, we should know that something like this can happen. But what what was the driver there that you would pull out? Obviously, there's a lot of factors. >> Sure. I mean, the first thing I I do kind of want to mention, and I think it's it'll give uh, you know, uh, viewers a little bit of a of a of a way to kind of grasp what happened. I mean, it took 50 years to take out $50, 45 years, let's call it. Um, and then it took three months to double from there, from 50 to 100. So, that is just dramatic. And I think that we're to be fair, we're probably at a point where we need to digest some of these gains, whether that means correction or consolidation or some kind of combination of that. But what brought it here was what I've been talking about for the last couple of years that we're we're already um in with 2025 into our fifth year of supply deficit. that is by all uh accounts does not look like it's going to change in any way if not get worse. The Silver Institute has said uh not all that long ago that they think that over the next 5 years we will continue with deficits and we will see record deficits. So that may get worse. Um, and if you look at supply that peaked in 2016, about 900, uh, mine supply peaked in 2016, about 900 million ounces. We're at around 820 million ounces. We're we're still not even close to that peak, and there is no prospect for for meaningful additional supply to come to market. Um, we could see a percent or two, honestly, more than we've seen over the on the average of the last 5 years. So growing huge and growing demand and flat supply. So naturally that's how [clears throat] markets work. And I think I think that that combined with the fact that investors have seen gold rise very significantly over the last two years and have finally come to terms with the fact that that is also not going back down. um and that it's likely to trend higher. And I've realized, okay, I need exposure to gold. I'm getting uh 1 ounce of gold for four now almost $5,000. Uh what else can I buy? And silver as it has been traditionally many times before, especially when gold runs first. Um that alternative and I think people have have realized that and have started to buy silver. Not so much in the west. Um, bullion dealers have told me that they are actually buying more silver than they're selling. And that's because I think some people have seen silver go to 50 and then 70 and 80, 90, and 100 and have said, "Okay, I'm going to unload some of my silver, but it hasn't gone lower from that kind of new limited supply. It's gone higher." So I think the demand uh from investment has been mostly in Asia and on balance it's been obviously enough to keep pushing silver to these kinds of levels. >> Right. So we've got so much to unpack here. Maybe we start with the digestion of this move because as you mentioned it has gone so fast and $100 is really a psychological level and I've definitely seen you know you mentioned people selling in the west. I've seen posts on social media of people who are even in the sector saying well now that we're here I need to sell at least a little bit. So let's talk about yeah digesting this move. >> So you know even Rick Rule who many of your your viewers know well um said something very interesting two days ago and that was that you know he has had for a long time a significant position in physical silver and has sold a good portion of that. um because he uh is looking for value all the time um and not sitting still and decided that that uh I guess those proceeds were going to go to where he saw value and and that's part of uh my thesis going forward as well that the value or the un unrealized value in the silver space is now especially in the miners um they essentially almost all need to be revalued because silver is so much higher and that hasn't happened yet. The analysts um are have been mo for the most part finally adjusted to maybe 25 or $30 silver in their models. Um you know the average of the last quarter was probably 70. Uh realistically they might move to 40 or $50. Maybe the more aggressive ones might go to $60. That's still 50% below from 60 to 100 or even 90. 50% below what spot is. So I think what we're going to see is over the next few quarters as those uh projects uh producers cash flows get revalued at higher uh input prices um we're going to see the profit margins uh really uh uh explode and and and uh expand. And we're going to see when those numbers get reported, uh, the market is going to start to, um, appreciate that and start to rerate a lot of these stocks. And that's why I see the potential over the next two, perhaps even three years. Um, the entire silver sector, I think, has a dramatic has dramatic room to to run. And I'm happy to say that uh, Rick Rule seems to think the same thing. So, >> I'm glad you brought up the silver stocks because that is one of the questions I'm seeing among our audience members quite a bit right now. They're wondering, all right, when are they going to start to outperform the metal itself? And I know we had the same question with gold when gold was rising and we had to wait some time and it sounds like it's will come, but we need to wait for it to come through in those companies results is what you're thinking. >> Exactly. And so, you know, for uh we're at V-Rick. Um my presentation that I prepared, I I looked at how the silver stocks have performed relative to silver. And if you look at the the big ETFs, the the silver mining ETFs, SIL, SILJ, you compare that to the silver price over the last 5 years, silver has actually doubled the return of the silver stocks. So, normally they should be doubling the silver price. Um, so we actually have had negative leverage in in silver stocks versus silver. If you look back over one year, two years, we're essentially even. So you've you've gotten no reward for taking on additional risk by being in the silver silver stocks. That's why I think at this point it's going to flip. and and that for the reasons I explained, we're going to start to see that value being uh recognized, repriced, and they're going to their their uh valuations are going to start to expand. One sort of last point on that, if I may, um an interesting point that was raised by uh a guy by the name of Ned Naylor Leland, who runs the Jupiter Asset Management Gold and Silver Fund. It's a $3 billion silver fund and they ex gold and silver fund and what they own basically is um mid to larger producers developers um in both gold and silver and uh a lot of gold and silver bullion and uh what he was saying is that already that's low but the producers are trading at about two times net asset value the developers are trading at 0.2 two times net asset value. So for the developers to catch up to the producers is a 10x and and we haven't even talked about what the juniors can do. So um there's a lot of room to run >> right and I did also want to ask you when it comes to the silver stocks where are you focusing how are you dividing your efforts among company size let's say >> right so you know in the newsletter I cover most of the larger producers and the midsized producers the the larger developers even the medium-sized developers where there's uh sort of a bit more area to to to to cover uh and and names to pick from is and and interestingly enough, we're seeing more and more projects come to market. I think that's a function of a higher silver price uh not only because some of them are now becoming economic, but because uh of the demand being so high and unmet. So that's interesting. It gives us a bigger pool to to choose from, to explore, to research, and to add to the portfolio. Um, so I do spend more time on that uh simply because there are more names coming and uh I've already sort of put the work in for what I feel are the better quality names in those sort of higher cap uh names and and and parts of the of the space sort of the the smaller mediumiz producers uh the smaller and larger developers and then the large cap producers. So it tends to be sort of on that lower end uh of higher risk. That's where uh more I'm putting more of my time. >> Interesting. And you're mentioning there's more projects that are becoming economic companies coming into the sector. But I think important to go back to what you said earlier. There's this supply deficit that has persisted and this doesn't even though prices are so high now, it's not quick to solve that. Right. >> Exactly. And um you know we've talked about this before. 75% of silver comes from uh mines that are uh not silver mines. They are essentially mines for gold or for copper, lead and zinc. And so silver 75% of silver production is byproduct. So those miners are happy to take 80 90 $100 silver. Because that's such a even at these prices, it still remains such a small portion of their revenues, they will will not really react and try to bring more silver production uh to market. They will just accept the higher price. And so in fact, you may get the reverse where if they have that flexibility, they'll look to their deposit. If there are areas of the deposit that are lower grade, they can now at a higher price produce the same profit as they were previously by producing less silver because it's at a lower grade. So that may actually shrink mine supply to some extent. So it's a very particular kind of market. It's it's not your normal economics 101. And um these are interesting dynamics and that's why uh yes it does make some projects more um more economic because the the price is higher but that can be compensated in other ways. So I wouldn't expect you know $100 silver or even $80 silver to mean we're going to have a flood of of new mine supply. That's unlikely. Well, and I think connected to that, I've started to hear there's been headlines about companies in China and India coming to silver companies, not even producers, but maybe even further down the food chain than that and looking to do supply deals so that they can secure their supply. So, what have you been hearing on that note? >> Absolutely. So, um, two of the companies that I've been writing about, one of them is Silvertorm. Uh, the other is Aino. Uh, in fact, I believe it's in both cases. It's a it's a deal with Samsung. So, Samsung needs a lot of silver. Uh, we can talk about that, too. They're uh looking to bring a new uh solid state battery to market. That is expected. We don't have any sort of clear numbers of the quantity of silver that they will require, but there are some even the estimates, although it's a wide range, they they start pretty high. um they have agreements with both of these mining companies uh to to uh buy all the or or a a portion of the silver that they produce. In the case of Silverstorm, uh they're not even a producer yet. And yet they've funded to the tune of $7 million um future production, which should actually start pretty soon. So, uh it it speaks to the um the anxiousness, I think, of big industrial consumers to get their hands on the silver that they really need. Uh there's nothing worse than, you know, uh losing sales or giving up sales because you you simply couldn't get the materials that you needed to produce when people want your product. So they're doing what they have to to secure that supply. >> And also also connected to that, I have seen headlines about companies, solar panel manufacturers, they're looking at substitution. They're seeing the high price and they wonder, can they use copper instead of silver at least to some degree? So >> exactly. I'm wondering about that. Does that sound like something that is feasible? How how does that work? >> Good point. Um, so I've read about that and done some research u you know repeatedly and um I've not seen anything meaningful uh on on real substitution. Um the the the metal that does seem to kind of regularly come back is copper. Uh it it has its challenges. If if were copper were the answer, we probably would be using have been using copper a long time ago. Um I'm not saying it will never happen, but uh copper is uh corrods more more easily. It's not as efficient as using silver. Um and a big issue for the solar pan solar panel manufacturers would be that they would need to retool to to use copper. And so that means shutting your plant down for probably months at a time. That means no output. Um it's not it's not the most obvious transition. And then you're also looking at different new technologies which is part of the retooling. So um needless to say uh silver is or at maybe 30 $40 $50 silver was already 20% of the cost of a solar panel. So imagine at $80 it's that's gone to maybe 40% of the cost. Uh I don't imagine that solar panel manufacturers can absorb that kind of extra cost um and not pass it on. So they will become more expensive. Um and this is kind of a working thesis for me. Um you know solar is the the cheapest form of new energy for utilities to add to uh um energy output and um I would not be surprised that needless to say you know governments it it you know power is a big thing obviously people need power for everything today and that they would potentially start subsidizing um solar panels for um for utility companies because they need to keep growing their electricity output. So, you know, um that would sustain the demand to some degree for the solar panels, but uh they would have to print money to have this cash to be able to start subsidizing and that would just lead to more inflation and potentially an even higher silver price. So, [laughter] it's a bit of a vicious circle. We'll see. >> Okay. Well, we we'll check back in with you on that that thesis. That's pretty interesting. And yeah, it sounds like with this silver copper thing, it's a little bit like platinum and palladium where yes, you can do it, but it takes a lot more work than people might think. So, those will definitely be interesting points to watch. And as we are getting toward the end here, what is the silver landscape looking like to you as we head forward into 2026, keeping in mind your your long-term price targets and the volatility? >> Exactly. So, I mean, I'm not deterred by this runup in the sense that uh I think it remains relatively early even for silver. Um, you know, to have reached these kinds of what feel like to some degree to many people lofty levels. Uh, I think that uh it would be unwise to not consider that we could have a meaningful correction. Like I've done the research. If you look back at the 2001 to 2011 period when we had a big silver run, it went from $4 in 2001 to 49 and change in 2011. That's more than a 10x. And um we had five corrections during that period that that uh 10-year period of almost 15% or more. Those five corrections averaged 30%. And so that's that's maybe some kind of a gauge. And if you looked at that right now that and if it corrected, you know, starting Monday, um that would mean $70, you know, by the time you ended that correction. That's kind of a a sizable average correction uh you can have in a in a in a bull market. Um $70 is still pretty good. I'm sure a lot of silver miners would be very happy with $70. And um uh it would actually be pretty healthy, I think, for the silver market. I'm not saying it's going to $70, but some kind of a meaningful maybe even 15 to 20% correction. Say $85, $80 would be pretty good. It would clear out some of the speculation. Um and I'm not even convinced that there is that much speculation, but uh it would certainly recalibrate things a little bit. And um again, I would see that as a buying opportunity. I do think that we're going to end a year higher than where we are now. Perhaps to the tune of 20, 30, perhaps even 40% higher. Uh I do think it's wise to caution investors and and viewers that I wouldn't expect anything like last year. That was an outlier. And uh but I think that the the bull is relatively intact. We should see silver continue higher on balance a lot higher. >> Well, and just you reminded me speaking of recalibration, there is a price differential right now between the silver price here and in China. Do you see that persisting into the the year? >> Um, I think so. I mean, uh, for a couple of reasons. The Chinese dominate solar panel manufacturing to the tune of 80% globally. They need a lot of silver to get that done. Um they also have 60 to 70% of the world's silver refining capacity. They want to keep those refiners busy. The silver needs to keep flowing into China. You know, a mining CEO told me about two years ago that uh they sell half their production to China, the other half to the west. And even back then before things got as heated as they are now, they were selling and proportionally it was pretty high. In fact, it was probably similar to what it is now because back then silver was under $30. And the Chinese were paying $2 above spot and they were uh paying it 2 weeks in advance before delivery. That is how anxious they were to get their hands on that silver. And today we're at probably somewhere around maybe 10 to 13% above spot. Um there are a couple of perhaps other reasons for that but it speaks to uh the uh the anxiousness I think in the east to get their hands on the silver. It's not all industrial either. Like I was saying earlier I think that a lot of the investment demand is in the east in uh the Asian countries. So uh they're they're just willing to pay. And uh one thing that a bit of a sort of an anecdote too that illustrates you know how how strong this demand is India typically uh will back off when prices run up and they're also now paying not not saying necessarily industrially but at least for investment silver they're now paying uh premiums above spot sizable premiums so more and more of as I say Asia at least for now I think that will come in the west and that will be a huge wave supportive wave for silver prices but um yeah I mean the uh the demand absolutely is there and uh again in a little anecdote I'm hearing that in India they're they have affinity to both metals gold and silver and because gold has run up so much they're now substituting gold jewelry for goldplated silver jewelry so so that now means more demand for silver because it's more accessible That is that is an interesting type of substitution to watch. And one more thing on my mind before I let you go. So, we talked about how some people saw silver get to $100 and they said, "All right, it's time for me to sell at least some of my metal." Do you have a level that you would sell physical silver at? How do you feel about that? >> So, these I get these questions regularly. That's okay. That's fun. Let's let's uh you know, let's let's go with it. But um I always say that these things are difficult to answer because and I'm not going to shy away from it, but they're difficult to answer because it's contextual, right? You need to you need to see where you are uh at a point in time where you've reached perhaps some kind of a target. So like I've said in the book that my target in a mania phase would be $300 silver. That's so you know it sounded crazy but we're now a third of the way there. When I said that, we were less than 10% of the way there. We were probably at $18 in silver. We're now at 100. So, I feel like it's a lot more realistic and a lot less crazy. Um, but that being said, I don't know what conditions will be like the day we reach $300 silver. We might get there and I might say, um, this is still really cheap. you know how much money printing has taken place between uh between now and then where um you know my target at that point might have been might might change to $500. I'll give you an example when I wrote the book and I talked about $300 silver. I used several indicators and one of them was the gold silver ratio. The another was the the Dow silver ratio. Uh, one was the average home price to silver ratio. And when I looked at these different indicators, uh, most of which peaked in, um, January 1980 when silver hit $50 for the first time, I had to when I used these indicators and I looked forward and I said, well, what would that project for a price in the future for silver? All of these indicators for me ended up pointing to $300 silver. So I said, you know, I'm not going to start with $35 or $330. We're already projecting so far. I find that silly. So I said, let's pick a round number. Like you said, these psychological levels are important. And I think that that's a reasonable amount. Um, but again, it's all a matter of context. um at the time that's what my point was going to be is that the gold when I made that uh looked at those indicators I you have to make certain assumptions one of them in the gold silver ratio is the gold price to get to use the ratio and get the silver price well the gold price assumption was 5,000 and that was almost four years ago and so we are essentially at 5,000 I don't believe we're staying at 5,000 so let's say gold goes ultimately I think that It's not unrealistic now to to talk about $10,000 gold. You know, if you have um you'd only need to go to a 30 to1 ratio instead of a 15 to1 ratio to get $300 silver. So, you know, again, it's all about context. Um let's see when we get much higher silver prices. Look at what the uh the the macro and geopolitical environment is like. But I think that um you know these these kinds of levels are looking a lot more realistic, a lot more accessible, a lot more likely as as things evolve. >> I I agree. These numbers that seemed crazy not too long ago now look very attainable. So and I think that reevaluation is so important. So thank you for for humoring that question. We can leave it there for now. This was great. I'll send you back out onto the conference show for Thank you so much. >> Pleasure. Thanks, Charlotte. >> Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Peter Crow with Silver Stock Investor and Silver Advisor. [music]
Peter Krauth: Silver Price at Triple Digits, Here's What Happens Next
Summary
Transcript
[music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Peter Kraut, editor of Silver Stock Investor and Silver Adviser. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you. >> Always a pleasure, Charlotte. Thanks for having me. >> Yes, of course. and we're catching up from our last conversation in December. So, it hasn't actually been very long, but a lot has changed for silver. So, we need to definitely start there. We just had silver hit a huge milestone in the last couple of days, reaching that tripledigit level for the first time ever. So, we'll get into all the nuances, but when you were seeing that playing out, you've been calling for that for years at this point. What was going through your head >> finally? And how did this happen so fast? Both, [laughter] you know, it's kind of a mixed feeling because you you've I've been expecting it for a long time, but when it actually gets there, you it and plus the way it happened so quickly, it's hard to process, but um as you said, to some extent, not completely surprising. Uh just sort of the pace of it was is what was surprising. Well, and let's break that down because it did move very quickly. And it's funny because I think everybody who follows silver knows that it can have huge volatility, these big moves to the upside and downside. So, in theory, we should know that something like this can happen. But what what was the driver there that you would pull out? Obviously, there's a lot of factors. >> Sure. I mean, the first thing I I do kind of want to mention, and I think it's it'll give uh, you know, uh, viewers a little bit of a of a of a way to kind of grasp what happened. I mean, it took 50 years to take out $50, 45 years, let's call it. Um, and then it took three months to double from there, from 50 to 100. So, that is just dramatic. And I think that we're to be fair, we're probably at a point where we need to digest some of these gains, whether that means correction or consolidation or some kind of combination of that. But what brought it here was what I've been talking about for the last couple of years that we're we're already um in with 2025 into our fifth year of supply deficit. that is by all uh accounts does not look like it's going to change in any way if not get worse. The Silver Institute has said uh not all that long ago that they think that over the next 5 years we will continue with deficits and we will see record deficits. So that may get worse. Um, and if you look at supply that peaked in 2016, about 900, uh, mine supply peaked in 2016, about 900 million ounces. We're at around 820 million ounces. We're we're still not even close to that peak, and there is no prospect for for meaningful additional supply to come to market. Um, we could see a percent or two, honestly, more than we've seen over the on the average of the last 5 years. So growing huge and growing demand and flat supply. So naturally that's how [clears throat] markets work. And I think I think that that combined with the fact that investors have seen gold rise very significantly over the last two years and have finally come to terms with the fact that that is also not going back down. um and that it's likely to trend higher. And I've realized, okay, I need exposure to gold. I'm getting uh 1 ounce of gold for four now almost $5,000. Uh what else can I buy? And silver as it has been traditionally many times before, especially when gold runs first. Um that alternative and I think people have have realized that and have started to buy silver. Not so much in the west. Um, bullion dealers have told me that they are actually buying more silver than they're selling. And that's because I think some people have seen silver go to 50 and then 70 and 80, 90, and 100 and have said, "Okay, I'm going to unload some of my silver, but it hasn't gone lower from that kind of new limited supply. It's gone higher." So I think the demand uh from investment has been mostly in Asia and on balance it's been obviously enough to keep pushing silver to these kinds of levels. >> Right. So we've got so much to unpack here. Maybe we start with the digestion of this move because as you mentioned it has gone so fast and $100 is really a psychological level and I've definitely seen you know you mentioned people selling in the west. I've seen posts on social media of people who are even in the sector saying well now that we're here I need to sell at least a little bit. So let's talk about yeah digesting this move. >> So you know even Rick Rule who many of your your viewers know well um said something very interesting two days ago and that was that you know he has had for a long time a significant position in physical silver and has sold a good portion of that. um because he uh is looking for value all the time um and not sitting still and decided that that uh I guess those proceeds were going to go to where he saw value and and that's part of uh my thesis going forward as well that the value or the un unrealized value in the silver space is now especially in the miners um they essentially almost all need to be revalued because silver is so much higher and that hasn't happened yet. The analysts um are have been mo for the most part finally adjusted to maybe 25 or $30 silver in their models. Um you know the average of the last quarter was probably 70. Uh realistically they might move to 40 or $50. Maybe the more aggressive ones might go to $60. That's still 50% below from 60 to 100 or even 90. 50% below what spot is. So I think what we're going to see is over the next few quarters as those uh projects uh producers cash flows get revalued at higher uh input prices um we're going to see the profit margins uh really uh uh explode and and and uh expand. And we're going to see when those numbers get reported, uh, the market is going to start to, um, appreciate that and start to rerate a lot of these stocks. And that's why I see the potential over the next two, perhaps even three years. Um, the entire silver sector, I think, has a dramatic has dramatic room to to run. And I'm happy to say that uh, Rick Rule seems to think the same thing. So, >> I'm glad you brought up the silver stocks because that is one of the questions I'm seeing among our audience members quite a bit right now. They're wondering, all right, when are they going to start to outperform the metal itself? And I know we had the same question with gold when gold was rising and we had to wait some time and it sounds like it's will come, but we need to wait for it to come through in those companies results is what you're thinking. >> Exactly. And so, you know, for uh we're at V-Rick. Um my presentation that I prepared, I I looked at how the silver stocks have performed relative to silver. And if you look at the the big ETFs, the the silver mining ETFs, SIL, SILJ, you compare that to the silver price over the last 5 years, silver has actually doubled the return of the silver stocks. So, normally they should be doubling the silver price. Um, so we actually have had negative leverage in in silver stocks versus silver. If you look back over one year, two years, we're essentially even. So you've you've gotten no reward for taking on additional risk by being in the silver silver stocks. That's why I think at this point it's going to flip. and and that for the reasons I explained, we're going to start to see that value being uh recognized, repriced, and they're going to their their uh valuations are going to start to expand. One sort of last point on that, if I may, um an interesting point that was raised by uh a guy by the name of Ned Naylor Leland, who runs the Jupiter Asset Management Gold and Silver Fund. It's a $3 billion silver fund and they ex gold and silver fund and what they own basically is um mid to larger producers developers um in both gold and silver and uh a lot of gold and silver bullion and uh what he was saying is that already that's low but the producers are trading at about two times net asset value the developers are trading at 0.2 two times net asset value. So for the developers to catch up to the producers is a 10x and and we haven't even talked about what the juniors can do. So um there's a lot of room to run >> right and I did also want to ask you when it comes to the silver stocks where are you focusing how are you dividing your efforts among company size let's say >> right so you know in the newsletter I cover most of the larger producers and the midsized producers the the larger developers even the medium-sized developers where there's uh sort of a bit more area to to to to cover uh and and names to pick from is and and interestingly enough, we're seeing more and more projects come to market. I think that's a function of a higher silver price uh not only because some of them are now becoming economic, but because uh of the demand being so high and unmet. So that's interesting. It gives us a bigger pool to to choose from, to explore, to research, and to add to the portfolio. Um, so I do spend more time on that uh simply because there are more names coming and uh I've already sort of put the work in for what I feel are the better quality names in those sort of higher cap uh names and and and parts of the of the space sort of the the smaller mediumiz producers uh the smaller and larger developers and then the large cap producers. So it tends to be sort of on that lower end uh of higher risk. That's where uh more I'm putting more of my time. >> Interesting. And you're mentioning there's more projects that are becoming economic companies coming into the sector. But I think important to go back to what you said earlier. There's this supply deficit that has persisted and this doesn't even though prices are so high now, it's not quick to solve that. Right. >> Exactly. And um you know we've talked about this before. 75% of silver comes from uh mines that are uh not silver mines. They are essentially mines for gold or for copper, lead and zinc. And so silver 75% of silver production is byproduct. So those miners are happy to take 80 90 $100 silver. Because that's such a even at these prices, it still remains such a small portion of their revenues, they will will not really react and try to bring more silver production uh to market. They will just accept the higher price. And so in fact, you may get the reverse where if they have that flexibility, they'll look to their deposit. If there are areas of the deposit that are lower grade, they can now at a higher price produce the same profit as they were previously by producing less silver because it's at a lower grade. So that may actually shrink mine supply to some extent. So it's a very particular kind of market. It's it's not your normal economics 101. And um these are interesting dynamics and that's why uh yes it does make some projects more um more economic because the the price is higher but that can be compensated in other ways. So I wouldn't expect you know $100 silver or even $80 silver to mean we're going to have a flood of of new mine supply. That's unlikely. Well, and I think connected to that, I've started to hear there's been headlines about companies in China and India coming to silver companies, not even producers, but maybe even further down the food chain than that and looking to do supply deals so that they can secure their supply. So, what have you been hearing on that note? >> Absolutely. So, um, two of the companies that I've been writing about, one of them is Silvertorm. Uh, the other is Aino. Uh, in fact, I believe it's in both cases. It's a it's a deal with Samsung. So, Samsung needs a lot of silver. Uh, we can talk about that, too. They're uh looking to bring a new uh solid state battery to market. That is expected. We don't have any sort of clear numbers of the quantity of silver that they will require, but there are some even the estimates, although it's a wide range, they they start pretty high. um they have agreements with both of these mining companies uh to to uh buy all the or or a a portion of the silver that they produce. In the case of Silverstorm, uh they're not even a producer yet. And yet they've funded to the tune of $7 million um future production, which should actually start pretty soon. So, uh it it speaks to the um the anxiousness, I think, of big industrial consumers to get their hands on the silver that they really need. Uh there's nothing worse than, you know, uh losing sales or giving up sales because you you simply couldn't get the materials that you needed to produce when people want your product. So they're doing what they have to to secure that supply. >> And also also connected to that, I have seen headlines about companies, solar panel manufacturers, they're looking at substitution. They're seeing the high price and they wonder, can they use copper instead of silver at least to some degree? So >> exactly. I'm wondering about that. Does that sound like something that is feasible? How how does that work? >> Good point. Um, so I've read about that and done some research u you know repeatedly and um I've not seen anything meaningful uh on on real substitution. Um the the the metal that does seem to kind of regularly come back is copper. Uh it it has its challenges. If if were copper were the answer, we probably would be using have been using copper a long time ago. Um I'm not saying it will never happen, but uh copper is uh corrods more more easily. It's not as efficient as using silver. Um and a big issue for the solar pan solar panel manufacturers would be that they would need to retool to to use copper. And so that means shutting your plant down for probably months at a time. That means no output. Um it's not it's not the most obvious transition. And then you're also looking at different new technologies which is part of the retooling. So um needless to say uh silver is or at maybe 30 $40 $50 silver was already 20% of the cost of a solar panel. So imagine at $80 it's that's gone to maybe 40% of the cost. Uh I don't imagine that solar panel manufacturers can absorb that kind of extra cost um and not pass it on. So they will become more expensive. Um and this is kind of a working thesis for me. Um you know solar is the the cheapest form of new energy for utilities to add to uh um energy output and um I would not be surprised that needless to say you know governments it it you know power is a big thing obviously people need power for everything today and that they would potentially start subsidizing um solar panels for um for utility companies because they need to keep growing their electricity output. So, you know, um that would sustain the demand to some degree for the solar panels, but uh they would have to print money to have this cash to be able to start subsidizing and that would just lead to more inflation and potentially an even higher silver price. So, [laughter] it's a bit of a vicious circle. We'll see. >> Okay. Well, we we'll check back in with you on that that thesis. That's pretty interesting. And yeah, it sounds like with this silver copper thing, it's a little bit like platinum and palladium where yes, you can do it, but it takes a lot more work than people might think. So, those will definitely be interesting points to watch. And as we are getting toward the end here, what is the silver landscape looking like to you as we head forward into 2026, keeping in mind your your long-term price targets and the volatility? >> Exactly. So, I mean, I'm not deterred by this runup in the sense that uh I think it remains relatively early even for silver. Um, you know, to have reached these kinds of what feel like to some degree to many people lofty levels. Uh, I think that uh it would be unwise to not consider that we could have a meaningful correction. Like I've done the research. If you look back at the 2001 to 2011 period when we had a big silver run, it went from $4 in 2001 to 49 and change in 2011. That's more than a 10x. And um we had five corrections during that period that that uh 10-year period of almost 15% or more. Those five corrections averaged 30%. And so that's that's maybe some kind of a gauge. And if you looked at that right now that and if it corrected, you know, starting Monday, um that would mean $70, you know, by the time you ended that correction. That's kind of a a sizable average correction uh you can have in a in a in a bull market. Um $70 is still pretty good. I'm sure a lot of silver miners would be very happy with $70. And um uh it would actually be pretty healthy, I think, for the silver market. I'm not saying it's going to $70, but some kind of a meaningful maybe even 15 to 20% correction. Say $85, $80 would be pretty good. It would clear out some of the speculation. Um and I'm not even convinced that there is that much speculation, but uh it would certainly recalibrate things a little bit. And um again, I would see that as a buying opportunity. I do think that we're going to end a year higher than where we are now. Perhaps to the tune of 20, 30, perhaps even 40% higher. Uh I do think it's wise to caution investors and and viewers that I wouldn't expect anything like last year. That was an outlier. And uh but I think that the the bull is relatively intact. We should see silver continue higher on balance a lot higher. >> Well, and just you reminded me speaking of recalibration, there is a price differential right now between the silver price here and in China. Do you see that persisting into the the year? >> Um, I think so. I mean, uh, for a couple of reasons. The Chinese dominate solar panel manufacturing to the tune of 80% globally. They need a lot of silver to get that done. Um they also have 60 to 70% of the world's silver refining capacity. They want to keep those refiners busy. The silver needs to keep flowing into China. You know, a mining CEO told me about two years ago that uh they sell half their production to China, the other half to the west. And even back then before things got as heated as they are now, they were selling and proportionally it was pretty high. In fact, it was probably similar to what it is now because back then silver was under $30. And the Chinese were paying $2 above spot and they were uh paying it 2 weeks in advance before delivery. That is how anxious they were to get their hands on that silver. And today we're at probably somewhere around maybe 10 to 13% above spot. Um there are a couple of perhaps other reasons for that but it speaks to uh the uh the anxiousness I think in the east to get their hands on the silver. It's not all industrial either. Like I was saying earlier I think that a lot of the investment demand is in the east in uh the Asian countries. So uh they're they're just willing to pay. And uh one thing that a bit of a sort of an anecdote too that illustrates you know how how strong this demand is India typically uh will back off when prices run up and they're also now paying not not saying necessarily industrially but at least for investment silver they're now paying uh premiums above spot sizable premiums so more and more of as I say Asia at least for now I think that will come in the west and that will be a huge wave supportive wave for silver prices but um yeah I mean the uh the demand absolutely is there and uh again in a little anecdote I'm hearing that in India they're they have affinity to both metals gold and silver and because gold has run up so much they're now substituting gold jewelry for goldplated silver jewelry so so that now means more demand for silver because it's more accessible That is that is an interesting type of substitution to watch. And one more thing on my mind before I let you go. So, we talked about how some people saw silver get to $100 and they said, "All right, it's time for me to sell at least some of my metal." Do you have a level that you would sell physical silver at? How do you feel about that? >> So, these I get these questions regularly. That's okay. That's fun. Let's let's uh you know, let's let's go with it. But um I always say that these things are difficult to answer because and I'm not going to shy away from it, but they're difficult to answer because it's contextual, right? You need to you need to see where you are uh at a point in time where you've reached perhaps some kind of a target. So like I've said in the book that my target in a mania phase would be $300 silver. That's so you know it sounded crazy but we're now a third of the way there. When I said that, we were less than 10% of the way there. We were probably at $18 in silver. We're now at 100. So, I feel like it's a lot more realistic and a lot less crazy. Um, but that being said, I don't know what conditions will be like the day we reach $300 silver. We might get there and I might say, um, this is still really cheap. you know how much money printing has taken place between uh between now and then where um you know my target at that point might have been might might change to $500. I'll give you an example when I wrote the book and I talked about $300 silver. I used several indicators and one of them was the gold silver ratio. The another was the the Dow silver ratio. Uh, one was the average home price to silver ratio. And when I looked at these different indicators, uh, most of which peaked in, um, January 1980 when silver hit $50 for the first time, I had to when I used these indicators and I looked forward and I said, well, what would that project for a price in the future for silver? All of these indicators for me ended up pointing to $300 silver. So I said, you know, I'm not going to start with $35 or $330. We're already projecting so far. I find that silly. So I said, let's pick a round number. Like you said, these psychological levels are important. And I think that that's a reasonable amount. Um, but again, it's all a matter of context. um at the time that's what my point was going to be is that the gold when I made that uh looked at those indicators I you have to make certain assumptions one of them in the gold silver ratio is the gold price to get to use the ratio and get the silver price well the gold price assumption was 5,000 and that was almost four years ago and so we are essentially at 5,000 I don't believe we're staying at 5,000 so let's say gold goes ultimately I think that It's not unrealistic now to to talk about $10,000 gold. You know, if you have um you'd only need to go to a 30 to1 ratio instead of a 15 to1 ratio to get $300 silver. So, you know, again, it's all about context. Um let's see when we get much higher silver prices. Look at what the uh the the macro and geopolitical environment is like. But I think that um you know these these kinds of levels are looking a lot more realistic, a lot more accessible, a lot more likely as as things evolve. >> I I agree. These numbers that seemed crazy not too long ago now look very attainable. So and I think that reevaluation is so important. So thank you for for humoring that question. We can leave it there for now. This was great. I'll send you back out onto the conference show for Thank you so much. >> Pleasure. Thanks, Charlotte. >> Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Peter Crow with Silver Stock Investor and Silver Advisor. [music]