Peter Schiff: Market Warns 'Bigger Crisis' Ahead, 'You're Too Late' If You Wait
Summary
Gold Market Analysis: Peter Schiff emphasizes that gold's current price of $4,000 is a new support level, suggesting a significant upward trajectory for gold as central banks accumulate it as a reserve asset.
Dollar and Bond Market Outlook: Schiff warns that the dollar and bond markets are poised for a downturn, with gold's rise indicating a potential loss of confidence in the dollar and US fiscal policies.
Central Bank Gold Accumulation: The shift towards gold by central banks, including China, is seen as a move away from the dollar standard, potentially signaling a return to a gold-backed monetary system.
US Fiscal Policy Critique: Schiff criticizes US fiscal irresponsibility, highlighting the inability to repay national debt without significant currency debasement, which could lead to a sovereign debt crisis.
Investment Strategy: Schiff advises investors to focus on gold and silver, suggesting that US assets are overvalued and that foreign markets, particularly those with dividend-paying stocks, offer better opportunities.
Government Intervention Concerns: He expresses concern over government investments in private companies, arguing that such actions lead to misallocation of resources and undermine free market principles.
Cryptocurrency Skepticism: Schiff remains skeptical of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate alternative to traditional currencies, viewing them as speculative assets rather than reliable stores of value.
Future Economic Predictions: Schiff predicts continued inflation and a potential stagflation scenario, with gold acting as a hedge against these economic challenges.
Transcript
4,000 is really the new 3,000 for gold. So 4,000 is kind of the support. This is not, you know, the end of this. It's gold's going a lot higher. Gold soaring like this is telling you that the dollar is going to go down, that bonds are going to go down. If you wait for the move in gold to also be reflected in a big down move in the dollar and a down move in the bond market, well, you you know, you're too late. You know, silver has clearly broken out. It's proven that 50 isn't a ceiling anymore, especially when the dollar really starts to tank. >> I'm very pleased to welcome back Peter Schiff, founder and chief strategist of Europacific Asset Management, founder of Shift Gold. We'll talk about gold, talk about the economy, we'll talk about any updates, any changes of heart with Bitcoin, Peter, we we'll get to that. Uh Peter, welcome back. I saw you last time at the Bitcoin Vegas conference. So, we'll end on Bitcoin and we'll we'll loop it all back and you were explaining why you attended a Bitcoin conference. This is a very interesting interview link down below. People should check that out. Let's start with gold. People have been talking about the end of the bull rally and not just with you know you guest on my show as well. Potentially end of the gold rally. If you look at the charts, Peter, it does look an awful lot like 2011 when uh gold peaked uh then and then it didn't stay there for very long. It doesn't seem to here. Let me just show you a chart to illustrate the point and show the audience what I'm referring to here. In in the past, whenever gold has peaked, it doesn't seem to have stayed at its peak for very long. Meaning, it doesn't really consolidate sideways and then go down. It just kind of falls. And it's even more dramatic with silver, which reached $50 an ounce for the first time since 2011. And it's only happened three times in history. >> And each time it's it stayed for a matter of days at most before it fall fell back down. um what's going on right now with the precious metals. We can start with gold first if you want. >> Yeah. Well, first of all, you know, the the peak in 1980, you know, that's when gold went from $35 to $850. So, that is an enormous move. I mean, we're not even close to that uh you know, that type of move this time. And in fact, even the 2011 peak, gold started that run about 10 years earlier at around 250. >> So we went from 250 to,900. And if you figure this run, um, you know, we broke out at 2000 was the highs and, you know, we've gone maybe double from 2000. So it's not anywhere near the type of rally that we've saw in the past. And even if you measure it from the low of the correction after it hit, 1900. We're only about a 4x move from that low when gold pulled back to a,050. So I think even relative to those other big moves, this one is still uh pretty early. I think it has a ways to go. But yeah, I mean gold had started to move up very rapidly. So it doesn't surprise me that it that it pulled back. I mean it was a pretty violent pullback. We had a 6 and a half% decline just in one day. Uh and of course you know the biggest moves in bull markets and that this goes with anything not not just gold but in stocks or you know it it's always the downside right the in a bull market the biggest moves are down like in a bare market the biggest moves are up and they generally shake out the weaker players. They they create a lot of fear uh that oh it's over time to get out and they're usually very violent but they end very quickly uh and and while a lot of people are you know are frightened of the move uh they end up missing out on the opportunity to buy and I think that's going to be the case with this shakeout. I you know I think gold is going to keep moving up. I think, you know, it's probably healthy that we had a big pullback uh to kind of keep the speculators in check. You know, the people who come in on leverage and and and use tight stops, a lot of those guys probably got flushed out in the pullback. Uh you know, we had a big drop in the mining stocks, you know, far more than we did in the price of gold. In fact, a lot of mining stocks ended up losing uh all the gains I think since about 3,700 gold, even though gold is now about 4,100 and change. And there are many gold stocks that are already in bare markets technically that in a couple of days have dropped by 20%. You know, as if you know, everything is falling apart. But we're above 4,000. I think it's interesting that the low of the pullback so far was still above 4,000. So, when you're talking about we had this huge sell-off, but gold was still above 4,000. I mean, we didn't sell off from 4,000. We sold off to 4,000. And uh so I think it's, you know, gold's made some good progress, but most of it has come based on central bank buying. There's very little uh retail investor interest. I mean, I think >> Well, just on that note, here's a chart of China. China's gold stock just to illustrate your point. Is that is that let's assume the data is correct, Peter. Is that the main contributing factor here to this rally? >> It's it's certainly a contributing factor. I mean, China's a big buyer, but they're not the only buyer. >> Mhm. >> Um but but the point is that that's not speculative buying. I mean, China isn't buying gold to flip it. I mean, this gold's not going to see the light of day for who knows how long. China is buying to have gold as a reserve to replace the dollar. And I think that's what a lot of other central banks are doing. They're buying gold to restore gold as you know the monetary backing of their of their currency. And this I think is a major uh you know transformation in the global monetary system. I think it's on the order of or maybe bigger than what happened in the 1970s when we went off the gold standard. And so the world went from having the US dollar backed by gold as the reserve to just having a fiat currency as the reserve. That was a significant shift in the monetary order. But now it's not the US going off the gold standard. It's the the world going off the dollar standard and returning to the gold standard. And I think that's probably even more significant certainly for the United States uh because we're about to have the rug pulled out from under us and you know we've been living off of the uh dollar's reserve status. We've used it as a crutch to live beyond our means. Uh we've enjoyed uh lower consumer prices and lower interest rates and higher asset prices as a result of this privilege that I think we are in the process of of losing. So when you point to these other moves up in gold and silver, I think they were largely driven at the peaks by speculators, you know, by retail investors who were, you know, jumping on the bandwagon and pushing the markets to, you know, kind of extreme points and then they would go down. I haven't I don't think we've even seen that yet. I think that retail investors have barely participated. In fact, if you look back at the flows from all of last year and most of this year, retail investors were selling gold ETFs. They were selling gold stock ETFs. So, they sold into the rally. They they weren't buying. Uh, in fact, if you talk to a lot of the um, you know, the the smaller coin shops around the country, and I've seen interviews, most of the people that came in over the last few months were people that were selling their gold. they were like bringing in their jewelry to melt it down and and get some cash. It wasn't a frenzy of people looking to buy gold. Uh and the institutions, you know, are barely involved. Uh the pension funds, the endowments, hedge funds, I mean, they barely have any position in gold. It wasn't until just recently that you saw, you know, more talk from, you know, Ray Dallio or well, although Jeff Gunlock has been talking gold for a while, but a few other people. Morgan Stanley came out in the last month. I think one of their analysts said that we should tweak the 6040 portfolio to be 60 2020 where you split your bonds in half and you buy gold. Uh but I doubt they've had any opportunity to make to make the switch. I mean, they've just started to recognize uh gold's value after denying it for decades. you know, I've been in the investment business for, you know, over 35 years. And, uh, I was pretty much a lone voice, you know, as a stock broker telling my clients that they should have an allocation to gold in their portfolio. And, you know, when I went on >> Yeah. when I went on major financial networks to talk about it, they generally laughed at me or they accused me of fear-mongering or just trying to sell gold, you know, when I mean they, you know, they didn't accuse a stock broker of recommending a stock because he's just trying to sell stocks. And of course, I was both, right? I was in in, you know, stock broker, but I also thought that people should have gold as part of their portfolios. But that was like, you know, uh, sacriiggious. But now people are starting to say, "Hey, wait a minute, you know, given the fact that gold has outperformed stocks over the last 25 years." If you go back to 1999 when the Dow peaked at 45 ounces of gold, today it's worth, you know, it was 11. I didn't do the math today, but it was, you know, just recently down to 11. That was a 70% decline in the price of the Dow Jones measured in real money, measured in gold. And and given the fact that just holding gold, you know, in a shoe box beat the Dow, and I'm not talking about just the price, it actually beat the return because the dividend yield has been pretty low over these, you know, these uh years. uh you got you actually did better just holding holding a gold coin and and so I guess you know given that I think Wall Street finally recognizes that yes gold has a place in your portfolio and if that's the case well this rally has a long way to go because that means a lot of investors have a lot of gold they need to buy meanwhile the central banks are are are getting started I don't think they're nearly complete in their transformation of their reserves uh they still have a lot of dollars to get rid of and a lot of gold to buy. Before we continue with the video, let's talk about our sponsor today, ODU. ODU is a complete business management suite trusted by over 15 million users across the globe. Whether you're a freelancer or scaling a growing company, ODU brings everything into one place. Sales, CRM, accounting, inventory, HR, project management, and more. It's all fully centralized and integrated. Your CRM connects to your invoicing, your sales flow into your inventory, and your HR tools sync with payroll. Everything communicates in real time, reducing manual tasks and errors, and ODU grows with your business. Start with one app for free with unlimited hosting and support. Then add more as you scale. When you're ready to go allin, access the full suite starting at just $24.90 per month. Check out the link in the description down below to try ODU and simplify your business operations. That leads to my next question. A huge paradigm shift happening right now. Central banks accumulating gold. Depending on which source you're looking at, this chart may have slightly different numbers, but the trend is still the same. The world uh central banks are holding now a higher percentage of gold reserves uh than treasuries. Uh according to some sources, this chart shows that they're just about to equal uh 25 and 25%. However, the trend is indisputable across all sources. This trend is started to pick up around 2023. What is changing in the world right now fundamentally that it wasn't around or wasn't applicable maybe a couple years ago that is prompting all these central banks and foreign reserves to accumulate a lot more gold and dump treasuries. I mean, can it just be Trump's policies? Is it just as simple as that? >> No, I don't. It's not just Trump. I mean, Trump isn't helping. In fact, on the margin, he's he's hurting. But I think that the trends would have continued regardless of the outcome of the last election. I think, you know, a big catalyst, although not the cause cuz it would have happened anyway, but I think when Biden sanctioned Russia, and I said this at the time, that those sanctions were sending a powerful message to the whole world to get rid of dollars and not to use the US dollar and US treasuries as a reserve because we could, you know, yank them out from under you whenever we want. and and so that's not a good position to be in. Uh it's like, you know, tying a a rope around your neck, throwing the other end over a tree limb, and hoping the guy that catches it doesn't pull it, right? Uh so I I I thought that that would cause money to come out. But I think what's even more significant is a long overdue realization that the US cannot possibly repay its debt. honestly that the national debt which is now 38 trillion and of course that's just the the bonded debt not with all the unfunded liabilities but the treasuries that a lot of foreign central banks own there's no way the US government can repay that debt in money that isn't dramatically debased meaning that the US government will not be able to raise sufficient tax revenue to make good on its obligations the Fed is going to have to print the And also we have so much debt now that we can't even afford to pay a rate of interest that would be commensurate to the loss of purchasing power that you might experience holding US debt to maturity. And you know that's why Donald Trump is beating up the Fed to cut rates. In fact, that's why the Fed is cutting rates even though inflation is well north of their, you know, bogus 2% target and headed higher, right? Uh they're cutting rates when they should be hiking rates and it's mainly because we can't afford the rates that we have now, let alone the rates that would be required to restore inflation to 2%. Right? So, we're cutting rates, but we're letting our creditors know that if you hold dollar or treasuries, you know, you're going to lose. We are going to debase uh what you're holding and we're not going to pay you a a rate of interest that's anywhere near close to compensating you for what you're going to lose to inflation. And so I think given that the world has made a a decision to get out of dollars and get out of treasuries. Why hold US treasuries and earn a 3 or 4% yield if inflation in the US is going to be higher than that? And of course if the US dollar is going to lose more than that in terms of purchasing power on an annual basis. And so rather than holding dollars and investing them in treasuries, they're going to hold gold. I mean, that's it. I mean, it's, you know, we've basically put them in that in in that position. And I think what Donald Trump has done to really, you know, sound the alarm and, you know, give these guys, you know, a kick in the ass as far as getting this done is, you know, the Republicans and Trump, you know, campaigned on fiscal responsibility on, you know, we've got to rein in the Biden deficits. We had all this inflation because of deficit spending under Biden and the inflation reduction act. And so we need to get in there and we need to cut spending. And you know they they they had Elon Musk, we're going to come in with Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency, and we're going to slash and burn. We're going to be like Mille in Argentina. We're going to take a chainsaw to government. Right? So, you know, these promises were made and none of them were kept. And when Trump not only signed on to the big beautiful bill, but was one of the main reasons that it passed, he he he championed that that bill, which not only preserved all the Biden deficit spending, but made it worse. So that the deficits that Trump inherited from Biden and you know to say he inherited it, you know, he also created a lot of it when he was president, but forgetting about that, the deficits that he, you know, walked into when Biden gave him back the baton, they were now they're even worse. Now they're bigger than they were. On top of that, you know, your the credibility of the Fed, which in my mind, you know, there was no independence. It was more of a pretense, but now they're dropping the pretense. It's pretty obvious that the Fed is in is political and Donald Trump is trying to make it even more political by stacking it with, you know, his cronies the same way that Roosevelt stacked the Supreme Court to try to get his unconstitutional New Deal programs uh uh you know, approved by the court. You know, Trump wants guys on the Fed and he's going to have a chance to put somebody else in there to replace Pal. Uh because Trump wants interest rates slashed. Uh he wants the Fed to crank up the presses. So again, this is a message that look, if the Republicans are not going to be fiscally responsible, then nobody is going to be because we're certainly not going to get that from the Democrats. They want to spend more money. Then I think on top of all that, Trump vilified all of our trading partners by accusing them of ripping us off and exploiting us and we're going to put all these tariffs uh on on imports from your country. And I think he pissed off a lot of people and and literally bit the hands that have been feeding us because Trump really has it backwards. The world uh we've been taking advantage of the world. We've been ripping them off because they give us real stuff and we just print money and and and hand it to them. And so we we our lives are better because we have consumer goods that we didn't produce and all they get is paper. And and what they've been doing with that is just loaning it right back to us. They buy our treasuries, they buy our mortgage back securities, they buy our stocks. And so they prop up our asset prices, they suppress our interest rates. So we've been living off of this, right? We, you know, we we've gotten low prices for consumer goods, lower interest rates on our home loans or our car loans. Uh, and, you know, we've indulged ourselves at the expense of the rest of the world. You know, we've lived uh above our means uh because the world has been content to live beneath its means to make that possible. Well, I think all that is coming to an end. And I think that's what $4,000 goal is telling you. And this is not, you know, the end of this. the gold's going a lot higher, especially when the dollar really starts to tank. Uh, and and I think you're going to see that if not by the end of this year, uh, sometime in 2026, >> it's going to start to tank on the back of more fiscal responsibility. Maybe gold is signaling a lot more growth because if you got a lot of fiscal stimulus, well, that pretends economic growth, does it not? >> No, I don't think gold is signaling growth. I think it's signaling inflation. >> Okay. and and and and and so I think you're going to see the weakness in the dollar against other fiat currencies. I mean, clearly when gold is at 4,000 and it was at 2,000 2 years ago, the dollar's lost half of its purchasing power in terms of how much gold you can buy with your dollar. So, the dollar is losing value against real money right now, but so are the pound and the euro and the yen and all these other currencies. Um, but I do think that you're going to start to see the dollar losing a lot more value relative to its fiat counterparts, uh, either, you know, before the end of this year or or next year. And that's going to accelerate the increase in the price of gold in dollar terms. But I think it's already uh, you know, you know, giving you a forewarning that that's going to happen. And I think gold is rising as a reflection of a loss of confidence in the dollar because I think the main reason that gold is being accumulated is because central banks have lost confidence in the dollar and in the you know the the fiscal responsibility of the US government or any the credibility of the Federal Reserve. So you're seeing it first in gold. I think you'll next see it in the dollar and then I think you'll see it after that in the Treasury market where you'll start to see a big drop in bond prices and a rise in long-term yields despite the fact that the Fed is going to be reducing short-term rates. And I think that is going to be the catalyst for a return to quantitative easing because I think the Fed is going to try to uh lower long-term interest rates through its open market operations where it needs to print money to buy the bonds that the rest of the world is is selling and and so that I think will be another catalyst to drive gold to even higher levels because that's just massive inflation. And you know the last couple of times we tried a QE uh inflation at least the way the government purports to measure it was below 2%. So the government was able to justify QE by saying look you know inflation is below target and so we could do this uh because the goal is to get inflation higher to reach our target and so you know we're going to accomplish that with QE but if inflation is already well above 2% what is the excuse for creating more inflation? How do you justify QE when inflation is four or 5% the way the government measures it? >> That's simple. You just the Fed just moves its inflation target to 3% unofficially and then you've got more QE to be justified. >> Well, but that would I don't think they could do that because just moving it to 3%. Once you move the goalpost once, >> right? Well, now you've already broken trust because if you can move it to three, you can move it to four. But even moving it to three, uh, you know, is a big game changer because that means a 50% increase in annual inflation. So, I mean, what does that do to the present value of gold if inflation is going to be 50% higher from now until the end of time? But, of course, they're not going to achieve three because if they give up two and they move to three, well, then they're going to give up three. They've already proven that their target is BS when they're above it. they don't have uh the, you know, the monetary coonas to do what it takes to bring inflation down to 2%. Well, then why would they have it to bring it down to 3%. Or 4%. So, I think, you know, once they once they move it, they're they're they're done, which is why they probably won't. I I don't know that they're officially ever going to say that they have a target of three. I think they're gonna keep a target of two, but they're just never gonna hit it. And I thought it was really ridiculous in in the last FOMC meeting, somebody actually asked pal about the, you know, about his forecast because he pointed out, hey, you know, two years ago, you predicted that in 2 years inflation would be 2%. And now it's 2 years later and it's way above 2%. And you're still predicting that 2% will we'll have 2% inflation in two years. And he said, you know, why should we believe you? I mean, what makes you more confident now than you were 2 years ago when you made the same prediction? And Pal basically said, "Look, we don't really know where inflation is going to be in 2 years. It's just that 2% is our target. So, that's our forecast. We just we just assume that we're going to hit our target, but we have no idea." So, in other words, they just make it up. The only reason they forecast 2% is because they want it to be 2%. Not because they think it's going to be 2% or they have any reason to believe that it's going to be 2%. So they could just keep on talking 2% inflation, you know, just to pretend that they've got that target, but you know, we're we're not going to go anywhere near it. What they may do to try to get closer to 2% is not change the target, but change the CPI. I mean, that's how the government operates, right? you you change the methodology for calculating the CPI so that you get a you get a lower number that that's what they did with the Bosan Commission. That's why the whole CPI is irrelevant today because you know it's been uh rigged by the government to have a low number. >> One possible explanation for why the markets have been doing so well is because the Trump administration is openly uh encouraging government investments into some private sector companies. You even tweeted about this this morning. Uh, America's turning more socialistic. You said centrally planned economy. Trump wants to plan to invest taxpayer money in several quantum computing companies. Uh, maybe you think Trump is so smart that he's the one guy who can make socialism work. But how would you feel if AOC is the next president who gets to decide how to allocate capital in America? By the way, this is referring to a a Wall Street Journal article that that that is quoting people familiar with the matter. um since that article came out. CNBC ran an article saying that the government the commerce department is denying such claims. So um who who knows what's going on but uh all right so the official stance of the government is that they're denying this is happening. We'll see if they actually carry through with it. But what is the broader trend here that you're trying to tell tell us about in this tweet? Yeah. >> Well, Trump has already made investments in public companies that so it's it's it's already happened. So there you know it's not like this would be brand new. this would just be more of of what he's already done. But first of all, there's nothing in the US Constitution that authorizes the US government to invest money in companies. It's just not a legitimate function of the federal government, let alone the president of the United States, to just decide that the US government's going to invest in in in any company. >> Well, hold on. Isn't that isn't that what a lot of company countries around the world already do? They they they take stakes in companies or they nationalize some companies or Yeah. Go ahead. >> Yeah. Well, I'm not familiar with their constitutions. I don't know what, you know, what the law says in those countries, but you know, just because those countries do something wrong doesn't mean we should we should do it too, right? I mean, yeah. I mean, there's a lot of political pressure for governments to get involved normally by the companies that benefit. But what people o often overlook is to the extent that the government allocates money into particular companies, right? Well, that means money is being allocated away from other companies. So, the government is deciding where capital should be invested as opposed to the free market. And that's never uh a good thing. Just like we don't want the government to decide prices, we want the free market to decide what prices should be. Uh because those prices send important signals to uh producers and consumers regarding resources and how to allocate them and what to produce and what not to produce. The same thing with capital. We want investors um investing money in ventures that they believe are going to be profitable, right? Because they you need investment to be guided by a profit motive so that investments are directed to areas that may best produce results. Results that will improve our standard of living that will lead to production of goods and services that we value and that increase our our our life. But when the government is allocating capital, it's not doing it for those reasons because it's not allocating your own money. I mean, when Donald Trump decides to put taxpayer money into an investment, it doesn't cost him anything if if it goes sour, right? Like remember with Celindra, right? It's like I if you're investing somebody else's money and you have no skin in the game, what what the hell do you care? So now you start to be guided by politics, right? Which companies is the president investing in? What, you know, what is he getting under the table to allocate taxpayer money to these investments? what is his family going to going to benefit? How is are his personal business interests uh you know what what is he getting? What is the quidd pro that we don't know about that is guiding this? Or is he doing it for campaign donations or votes or you know what it's not real market forces, it's political forces that are behind the allocations. And then of course once the government has a stake in a business, right? Well, I mean, it's like, you know, it'd be like in a football game, the referee is a member of one of the teams. I mean, he's not he's not going to call everything fair when, you know, he wants his team to win. So, if the government is invested in the company, >> well, it's going to naturally want that company to do better than its competitors. So, it's going to, you know, rig the field and it's going to, you know, pass, you know, maybe some laws or regulations that might advantage the company that it is invested in at the expense of the companies that it hasn't invested in. Um, so, you know, this is not what government is supposed to do. Certainly not in the United States, but it shouldn't do it anywhere. Um, government needs to just stay out. Government's there just to protect our rights, uh, not to invest our money. I just want to get rich off the markets, says a lot of people. Okay? So, I don't I don't care what the government's doing, but let's just follow this trend. If the government is investing in tech companies, whether it's constitutional or not, we can debate that. Let's just follow that lead and invest in tech companies. Where's the evaluate that logic, please? >> Yeah. Well, again, that may be causing a misallocation of resources. people want to invest where the government is putting money because they think that they'll do better because the government is propping up those those stocks. And so if people if people decide to invest money where the government is is is misdirecting it, they're taking those funds away from other uh areas that they might have invested in. And that maybe the free market would have allocated capital someplace else, but because of the government, those other businesses are not getting that capital. that capital is being sucked away and put into, you know, quantum computing or AI or wherever the government decides that it it wants to go. Uh but maybe the free market which is going to be a better allocator of capital. I mean there is no precedent in in human history for governments doing a better job of allocating capital than a free market. It just there is no example of that and it's not going to change. you know, we're not going to be the first example of of socialism being better than capitalism. Uh, and so, uh, yeah, it's a mistake, and I'm sure a lot of investors are going to do this. Look at all the resources that have been misdirected to the crypto industry. What a gigantic waste because the president has decided to make crypto a priority to have pretty much a crypto cabinet with a cryptozar and his family has decided to make crypto the family business. I mean, forget about real estate or whatever else they're doing. Their main industry now is crypto and Bitcoin and whatever. and and and so there he's trying to channel uh all kinds of resources into an industry that he's now, you know, betting on personally. But if you listen to how the crypto industry tries to, you know, to promote itself now, it's basically saying, hey, the government has embraced it. The government has legitimized it. The government is now friendly to crypto. The government's going to have a Bitcoin strategic reserve. And so because of the government promoting crypto, you should invest in it. You should put money in these companies, right? So people are doing that because the government has put its seal of approval on this particular industry which could end up being a disaster and I think it will be. I think the whole thing is a giant Ponzi scheme. I think we are squandering all these resources uh that could have been put to productive use. I mean, the president makes a big deal, and rightly so, out of the fact that our manufacturing is gone and our industrial base is gone, and and he thinks we're going to get it back with tariffs. Well, the tariffs are going to backfire and make it worse. But what's also going to make it worse is misdirecting resources that could have gone to building factories, to creating memecoins. You know, what the hell are they going to produce? I mean, if we spend all this resources on crypto, then we have even bigger trade deficits because the crypto industry produces nothing, right? So, the things that we need to buy, then we have >> Well, you think about it, it's a smart way to increase the money supply, isn't it? You produce memecoins out of thin air. They go up in value. Presumably, the people who buy them get richer and the Fed doesn't have to print more money. It's kind of clever. >> Well, they only get they only get richer if they sell them. >> And they're getting richer because somebody else is dumb enough to buy them. Now the one way that it, you know, it it does lead to more inflation is to the extent that they can leverage them. People can go out, you can take the crypto assets and jack up the price and then you can find some bank uh that that will loan you money on that crypto collateral, right? So you're manufacturing collateral out of thin air and then you're borrowing against it. So there that creates inflation right there. But nobody would be dumb enough to lend you money on that if it wasn't for the government support, you know. >> All right, comment down below if you would buy a Trump memecoin if he makes a new one. I want to draw your attention to this. I'll play 30 seconds of this. It's a quote from Anton Kobakov. It's uh he's one of Putin's adviserss. This is circulating on social media all throughout September. I haven't had a chance to ask you about it because I haven't had you on the show since September, but take a listen. alternative. Crypto. Basically, he's saying um the uh the US now trying to rewrite the rules of the gold and cryptocurrency markets. Uh remember the size of the debt 35 trillion. Actually, it's 38 trillion as of today. Just reported. These two sectors, crypto and gold, are essentially alternatives to the traditional global currency system. Washington's actions in this area clearly highlights one of its main goals to urgently address the declining trust in the dollar is in the 1930s and the 70s the US plans to solve its financial problems at the world's expense and this time by pushing everyone into the crypto cloud. So he's basically accusing the US of issuing stable coins to deval to hide its debt and shove its debt into the cloud. So I'll let you comment on that. Maybe maybe you've seen this already. >> Well, I don't know. Um, well, first of all, I don't think the Bitcoin is a a legitimate alternative to the dollar the way gold is. I think that's how Bitcoin is marketed and promoted by the industry that it is an alternative, but but I don't think it is. I think it's, you know, very different than gold. In fact, it's probably the anti-gold. And if anything, it's more negatively than positively correlated with gold. I think the reason that Bitcoin has gone up is because tech stocks have gone up and you have a a positive correlation there uh between you know high-risk uh speculative assets and that's where where Bitcoin is. Gold has not gone up because it's a speculative asset. It's gone up as a safe haven as a store of value as a legitimate alternative to the US dollar. So they're moving sometimes in the same direction but for for different reasons. But I don't think uh that the stable coin industry is really going to do much uh for the US ability to finance its debts because to the extent that people decide to keep more money in in US dollar stable coins, they're going to take that money out of money markets for example and so that's going to reduce the demand for US treasuries from money markets and just you know shift it uh to stable coins. But I really don't see a lot of demand for stable coins. I think most people today that use them. They're crypto traders and so they're just parking money there uh between their their trades. I I don't see a lot of demand for, you know, the general public to hold US dollar stable coins if they're not using them to trade Bitcoin or Ethereum or any of these things because you don't get any interest on a stable coin. If I keep my money in a money market, I'm getting like 4% interest and I've got plenty of liquidity. I can have a checkbook. I can have a debit card. I can use my money market to fund uh transactions through, you know, like a PayPal or uh Venmo or, you know, so you know, why would you give up your interest on your money just to hold a stable coin and earn no interest? I mean, it's a great deal for the stable coin issuers because they take everybody's money and they buy the treasuries and they keep all of the yield for themselves and give none of it to the stable coin owners. >> I want to get your reaction to uh to Scott's comment on this. We haven't uh spoken about this, you and I, because this was issued in July. We last spoke in May. The Genius Act passed during the summertime, as you know. It's uh it's a new law that mandates that new uh government uh issued stable coins have to be backed one to one to the US dollar. This is what Scottison had to say. Stable coins represent a revolution in digital finance. The dollar now has an internet native payment rail that is fast, frictionless, and free of middlemen. This groundbreaking technology will buttress the dollar status as a global reserve currency, expand access to the dollar economy for billions across the globe, and lead to a surge in demand for US treasuries, which now back stable coins. This goes back to your earlier discussion about the US dollar losing status. Perhaps this, according to Bent at least, is going to, in his words, butress demand for US treasuries. It'll save the US dollar, Peter. >> Yeah. Yeah. Look, I think that's all a bunch of BS. I mean, that's hype. Uh, that's designed to promote crypto and Bitcoin so that Trump's uh, you know, insiders, his friends, his campaign donors, uh, can hype up the market that they're selling into. So, I think, uh, there's no, uh, connection in reality there. I don't see a huge demand for US dollar stable coins. First of all, you know, they can issue stable coins denominated in euros, uh, denominated in Swiss Franks. I mean, anybody could do this uh all around the world. Uh and so I don't know why people would say, well, I want to have a stable coin that's stable to the dollar, especially when we have all this debt and we're creating all this inflation. So, to the extent that people want a stable coin, let's say I'm living in Europe, why would I want it to be uh pegged to the dollar? I mean, I might I might pick the euro or, you know, the Swiss Frank or or something else. Um, but I think ideally and ironically the the concept of of of having a token backed by something the the best thing to back a token would be gold. I mean that. So to me, a goldbacked token, a tokenized gold, right, which would be a token that's stable to the price of gold that could be used as a medium of exchange, uh, as a unit of account, as a store of value. I mean, people could have make payments and receive payments in gold just as easily as US dollars. I think that's a big threat to the dollar because one of the things that the dollar had over gold was that it was more convenient to use dollars than it was to use gold. You know, it's easier for me uh to go into a Starbucks and buy a cup of coffee with dollars than with gold. But with tokenized gold or, you know, gold stable coins, it's just as easy to buy coffee in dollars. But more importantly, it's just as easy for the for the coffee merchant to be paid gold for his coffee. And you know that I think that's ultimately what's going to drive uh the the you know the payments in the future is going to be the preference of the seller, the provider of goods and services. How do they prefer to be paid? Do they want to be paid in a rapidly depreciating fiat currency or do they want to be paid in real money that holds its value? You know, because >> we don't have that option though, right? I can't I can't I can't, you know, accept payment in gold right now. >> If there was a gold if there was a gold like stable coins, right? >> Right. Okay. >> A a a store could say, "Yes, we accept payment in these this coin. You can pay us in this token." Right. >> Sure. and and then they could get paid in gold. They could give you maybe even a little discount if you pay in gold because they prefer to receive gold because gold will maintain its value. See what's going to happen I think with a lot of companies as inflation really starts to accelerate. >> Let's say I've got a business and prices are rising 10% a month. If I sell you something and I take dollars now I've got to replace my inventory. Well, what if the inventory is getting so expensive that it it cost me more to replace what I just sold you? So, what might have to happen is that in order to maintain some stability, businesses will move away from depreciating fiat currencies and just work with gold because they know, okay, if I accept gold for my products, when I have to restock, I have gold to pay because prices won't be going up in gold. they they're going up in dollars, but they may be stable or going down in gold. So, that's the currency I'd rather get paid in uh would be gold. And that gold isn't currency. Gold is actual money. Yeah. We have a few minutes left, Peter. I want to get your reaction to one final piece of story. This is breaking uh uh on Wall Street this this week. Regional banks uh reacting to bad loans. Zance Bank, Western Alliance Bank, investment firm Jeff uh surprised investor by disclosing various bad investments in their books. reaction from Jamie Diamond, chief of Morgan Stanley, he said, and I quote, "When you see one cockroach, there may be possibly more." Um, and I think uh this article from the Los Angeles Times closes withinvestors are wondering if there might be bad news to come. In other words, more and more cockroaches. How would you respond to this? What is going on right now? >> Well, look, Jamie Diamond ought to know because they're hitched cockroaches, right? But um look, obviously we have credit excesses. We've had a huge uh credit bubble fuel by by the Fed and government uh backed banks and loans. In fact, the main reason that the Fed stopped hiking rates the first time wasn't because they won the battle against inflation, but because the collateral damage was uh causing banks to fail. You got Silicon Valley Bank failed. You got Signature Bank, there was another one. And and that was it. the Fed basically stopped hiking rates uh because the rates were so high and they weren't even that high but the banks started to fail and more banks would have failed had the Fed kept kept hiking. Uh so they stopped and I think one of the main reasons they're cutting rates is because more banks would fail if the Fed left rates where they are. Uh and that's because I think all of our banks are fundamentally insolvent. And they're insolvent because of Fed policy. They've kept interest rates so low for so long that if the Fed were to normalize rates, and they're not normal now, they're still too low. Despite all the talk that rates are too high and they need to come down, $4,000 gold is proof that rates are too low and need to go up. You know, Allan Greenspan when he was Fed chairman, he told the the the Senate or the House that if gold got to 400, that meant that monetary policy was too easy. That was his way of keeping the US on a gold standard was to watch the price of gold as an indicator of whether or not he had monetary policy right. And he said, "If gold gets to 400, that's telling me that I'm too loose." Well, we're 10 times that price now. So, if $400 gold was saying the Fed was too loose, what is I mean, what is $4,000 gold uh uh saying? So, yes, you know, we have all kinds of of bad loans uh including the US government, right? The US government has borrowed much more money than it can ever repay. It has borrowed more money than it can service. But the only reason we have 38 trillion in debt is because interest rates have been kept so low for so long. If interest rates were much higher, the government couldn't have borrowed all this money. We couldn't have afforded it. So, we would have been forced to cut government spending years ago, decades ago, if it had not been enabled by the Fed. And so, yes, there's cockroaches all over the place, uh, not just in in these small banks, everywhere, including the White House, you know, Congress, uh, the Federal Reserve. So, they're all going to they're all going to come out. One more sentence here. Uh, there were other signs of distress. Federal Reserve data shows that banks tap the central bank's overnight repo facilities, an action not taken since CO. This facility allows banks to convert highly liquid securities such as bonds and treasuries into cash to help fund their short-term cash shortfalls. The bottom line is here is Peter, are you concerned about another regional banking crisis right now or is this just a case of a few banks mismanaging their loan books? >> Well, I'm more concerned uh about a US dollar and sovereign debt crisis because I think that's going to be the consequence of the Fed bailing out all these banks and preventing that. You know, the Fed does these stress tests every year and I always point out that the stress tests are are all BS because they don't stress test for stagflation. They they don't they don't have any scenario in which they test how a bank would perform with stackflation. So if we had a recession with rising inflation and rising interest rates, they don't test any banks for that. And I think that's because they know they would all fail. And so they don't even want to run a test if they already know uh that no one's going to pass. Uh but that is the environment that we're in and it's going to get a lot worse and I think the only way that we're not going to see widespread failure in the banking system is if we have massive money printing. Uh and so that's going to ultimately cause a dollar and sovereign debt crisis. And again that is what gold is telling you. Gold is the monetary canary in the coal mine. Gold is shooting up now for a reason. uh and uh you know to me it's very much like the collapse of subprime in 2007 because I had been forecasting subprime to collapse for years before it did. But I I forecast that as part of a broader banking crisis, financial crisis that I knew would follow the collapse of uh the subprime market which would ultimately take down the mortgage market and the banking system and Fetty and Fanny and and I I I've been talking about that and warning about that. I wrote about it. But when the subprime uh market blew up in ' 07, the mainstream dismissed it as an isolated event. Even the Federal Reserve said, "Don't worry, it's contained." And I was out there saying, "No, it's not. It's it's the tip of this huge iceberg. Just wait." And of course, we had the crisis the following year in 2008. Well, to me, I've been I've been warning about a big move up in the price of gold uh as you know, a for foreshadowing a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis, and now it's happening. And just like the mainstream dismissed the warning from subprime, they're dismissing the warning from gold. But I think gold is just indicating that a much bigger crisis is coming. And I've even heard people say that we don't have to worry about the price of gold because the dollar is not falling because the bond market isn't falling. And so therefore, gold's rise is not reflective of a loss of confidence in the dollar or the bond market. And my response to that is just wait. Gold is the first shoe to drop. Gold soaring like this is telling you that the dollar is going to go down, that bonds are going to go down. If you wait for that, if you wait for the move in gold to also be reflected in a big down move in the dollar and a down move in the bond market, well, you you know, you're too late. You know, you're too late to diffuse the crisis, but you're also too late uh to prepare for it financially. That's why I'm, you know, I keep, you know, reiterating with my clients, look, look, you got to buy gold, you got to buy silver, you know, hey, you got to dip now to 4,100 or, you know, I think 4,000 is really the new 3,000 for gold. So 4,000 is kind of the support. Doesn't mean we can't go below it, but I think any dip below 4,000 will be shortlived. Silver got up to 54 and change, so it took out the the 50 double top. We're back below 50 now. I mean, silver is a lot more volatile. You don't have the central bank buying to stabilize it like you do in gold. But look, I think silver has clearly broken out. It's proven that 50 isn't a ceiling anymore. Soon it's going to be the floor. People should be buying silver. I think it's very cheap. Uh and people should be getting out of US assets. I think the US stock market, which has been really in a in a massive bare market for, you know, 25 years, I think that bare market is going to accelerate. But uh finally after many many years uh foreign markets are smoking US markets. I think the S&P is up maybe 13 14% this year. I've got a foreign dividend payer fund that's up almost 50% this year. This isn't my gold fund. This is just my defensive dividend paying stock fund. But so foreign markets are finally way outperforming the US. And I think that trend is going to continue. It's not just central bankers who are getting out of dollars into gold. It's foreign investors who are going to be getting out of US investments and reinvesting domestically. That's going to be followed by Americans uh diversifying internationally. So all these flows are going to be reversed. All the money that was coming into the US capital markets is going to leave and go into these foreign markets. So people should, you know, contact my my firm, Europe Pacific Asset Management because our strategies are specifically designed for this reallocation of capital and the phenomenal returns that we've had so far in 2025, I think, are just the beginning of at least a decade of major outperformance. So you can invest directly with us or I have five mutual funds that people can buy anywhere and they can get information on my funds uh at my website at europac.com. We'll put the links below so you can follow Peter's work there. And yeah, congrats on your uh gold calls. You've been, you know, sounding alarm bell on gold and you've you've been right all year. So, congrats on that. What are you thankful for? Thanksgiving is coming up. Let's end here. You've got uh one we've got one month. Yeah. One month till American Thanksgiving. What are you most thankful for this year, Peter? >> Well, I mean, I still have my health. You know, I you know, um I'm you know, I live in a wonderful community. you know, I've got uh you know, some great kids and wife, so you know, I mean, I'm 62 and so I mean, I guess the health and the fact I have a good quality of life is probably uh, you know, what I'd be most thankful for. And yeah, I've done well and I I think I I pretty much have uh the money at this point and the resources to uh, you know, to live out my life uh comfortably and and do the things that I want to do. Uh, but I I'm still trying to make a a a more meaningful impact on the direction that the country is in. I mean, I do uh love the country, at least what it what it used to be and what it stood for and the sacrifices that were made uh decades before I was born uh to preserve the freedoms that we not only take for granted right now, but that we are happily giving up. >> Yeah. >> Uh and and so I think I still have enough time left to uh to try to make a positive difference. And who knows with AI, uh, you know, you never know. Maybe 62, uh, isn't that old anymore. We'll see. Maybe they'll >> All right. Well, only they'll be able to turn back the clock, you know. >> Well, we're thankful for you uh sharing your thoughts and uh giving us your time. So, please do follow Peter. Links down below. Thank you, Peter. We'll speak again soon. Take care for now. >> All right. Take care. >> Yeah. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
Peter Schiff: Market Warns 'Bigger Crisis' Ahead, 'You're Too Late' If You Wait
Summary
Transcript
4,000 is really the new 3,000 for gold. So 4,000 is kind of the support. This is not, you know, the end of this. It's gold's going a lot higher. Gold soaring like this is telling you that the dollar is going to go down, that bonds are going to go down. If you wait for the move in gold to also be reflected in a big down move in the dollar and a down move in the bond market, well, you you know, you're too late. You know, silver has clearly broken out. It's proven that 50 isn't a ceiling anymore, especially when the dollar really starts to tank. >> I'm very pleased to welcome back Peter Schiff, founder and chief strategist of Europacific Asset Management, founder of Shift Gold. We'll talk about gold, talk about the economy, we'll talk about any updates, any changes of heart with Bitcoin, Peter, we we'll get to that. Uh Peter, welcome back. I saw you last time at the Bitcoin Vegas conference. So, we'll end on Bitcoin and we'll we'll loop it all back and you were explaining why you attended a Bitcoin conference. This is a very interesting interview link down below. People should check that out. Let's start with gold. People have been talking about the end of the bull rally and not just with you know you guest on my show as well. Potentially end of the gold rally. If you look at the charts, Peter, it does look an awful lot like 2011 when uh gold peaked uh then and then it didn't stay there for very long. It doesn't seem to here. Let me just show you a chart to illustrate the point and show the audience what I'm referring to here. In in the past, whenever gold has peaked, it doesn't seem to have stayed at its peak for very long. Meaning, it doesn't really consolidate sideways and then go down. It just kind of falls. And it's even more dramatic with silver, which reached $50 an ounce for the first time since 2011. And it's only happened three times in history. >> And each time it's it stayed for a matter of days at most before it fall fell back down. um what's going on right now with the precious metals. We can start with gold first if you want. >> Yeah. Well, first of all, you know, the the peak in 1980, you know, that's when gold went from $35 to $850. So, that is an enormous move. I mean, we're not even close to that uh you know, that type of move this time. And in fact, even the 2011 peak, gold started that run about 10 years earlier at around 250. >> So we went from 250 to,900. And if you figure this run, um, you know, we broke out at 2000 was the highs and, you know, we've gone maybe double from 2000. So it's not anywhere near the type of rally that we've saw in the past. And even if you measure it from the low of the correction after it hit, 1900. We're only about a 4x move from that low when gold pulled back to a,050. So I think even relative to those other big moves, this one is still uh pretty early. I think it has a ways to go. But yeah, I mean gold had started to move up very rapidly. So it doesn't surprise me that it that it pulled back. I mean it was a pretty violent pullback. We had a 6 and a half% decline just in one day. Uh and of course you know the biggest moves in bull markets and that this goes with anything not not just gold but in stocks or you know it it's always the downside right the in a bull market the biggest moves are down like in a bare market the biggest moves are up and they generally shake out the weaker players. They they create a lot of fear uh that oh it's over time to get out and they're usually very violent but they end very quickly uh and and while a lot of people are you know are frightened of the move uh they end up missing out on the opportunity to buy and I think that's going to be the case with this shakeout. I you know I think gold is going to keep moving up. I think, you know, it's probably healthy that we had a big pullback uh to kind of keep the speculators in check. You know, the people who come in on leverage and and and use tight stops, a lot of those guys probably got flushed out in the pullback. Uh you know, we had a big drop in the mining stocks, you know, far more than we did in the price of gold. In fact, a lot of mining stocks ended up losing uh all the gains I think since about 3,700 gold, even though gold is now about 4,100 and change. And there are many gold stocks that are already in bare markets technically that in a couple of days have dropped by 20%. You know, as if you know, everything is falling apart. But we're above 4,000. I think it's interesting that the low of the pullback so far was still above 4,000. So, when you're talking about we had this huge sell-off, but gold was still above 4,000. I mean, we didn't sell off from 4,000. We sold off to 4,000. And uh so I think it's, you know, gold's made some good progress, but most of it has come based on central bank buying. There's very little uh retail investor interest. I mean, I think >> Well, just on that note, here's a chart of China. China's gold stock just to illustrate your point. Is that is that let's assume the data is correct, Peter. Is that the main contributing factor here to this rally? >> It's it's certainly a contributing factor. I mean, China's a big buyer, but they're not the only buyer. >> Mhm. >> Um but but the point is that that's not speculative buying. I mean, China isn't buying gold to flip it. I mean, this gold's not going to see the light of day for who knows how long. China is buying to have gold as a reserve to replace the dollar. And I think that's what a lot of other central banks are doing. They're buying gold to restore gold as you know the monetary backing of their of their currency. And this I think is a major uh you know transformation in the global monetary system. I think it's on the order of or maybe bigger than what happened in the 1970s when we went off the gold standard. And so the world went from having the US dollar backed by gold as the reserve to just having a fiat currency as the reserve. That was a significant shift in the monetary order. But now it's not the US going off the gold standard. It's the the world going off the dollar standard and returning to the gold standard. And I think that's probably even more significant certainly for the United States uh because we're about to have the rug pulled out from under us and you know we've been living off of the uh dollar's reserve status. We've used it as a crutch to live beyond our means. Uh we've enjoyed uh lower consumer prices and lower interest rates and higher asset prices as a result of this privilege that I think we are in the process of of losing. So when you point to these other moves up in gold and silver, I think they were largely driven at the peaks by speculators, you know, by retail investors who were, you know, jumping on the bandwagon and pushing the markets to, you know, kind of extreme points and then they would go down. I haven't I don't think we've even seen that yet. I think that retail investors have barely participated. In fact, if you look back at the flows from all of last year and most of this year, retail investors were selling gold ETFs. They were selling gold stock ETFs. So, they sold into the rally. They they weren't buying. Uh, in fact, if you talk to a lot of the um, you know, the the smaller coin shops around the country, and I've seen interviews, most of the people that came in over the last few months were people that were selling their gold. they were like bringing in their jewelry to melt it down and and get some cash. It wasn't a frenzy of people looking to buy gold. Uh and the institutions, you know, are barely involved. Uh the pension funds, the endowments, hedge funds, I mean, they barely have any position in gold. It wasn't until just recently that you saw, you know, more talk from, you know, Ray Dallio or well, although Jeff Gunlock has been talking gold for a while, but a few other people. Morgan Stanley came out in the last month. I think one of their analysts said that we should tweak the 6040 portfolio to be 60 2020 where you split your bonds in half and you buy gold. Uh but I doubt they've had any opportunity to make to make the switch. I mean, they've just started to recognize uh gold's value after denying it for decades. you know, I've been in the investment business for, you know, over 35 years. And, uh, I was pretty much a lone voice, you know, as a stock broker telling my clients that they should have an allocation to gold in their portfolio. And, you know, when I went on >> Yeah. when I went on major financial networks to talk about it, they generally laughed at me or they accused me of fear-mongering or just trying to sell gold, you know, when I mean they, you know, they didn't accuse a stock broker of recommending a stock because he's just trying to sell stocks. And of course, I was both, right? I was in in, you know, stock broker, but I also thought that people should have gold as part of their portfolios. But that was like, you know, uh, sacriiggious. But now people are starting to say, "Hey, wait a minute, you know, given the fact that gold has outperformed stocks over the last 25 years." If you go back to 1999 when the Dow peaked at 45 ounces of gold, today it's worth, you know, it was 11. I didn't do the math today, but it was, you know, just recently down to 11. That was a 70% decline in the price of the Dow Jones measured in real money, measured in gold. And and given the fact that just holding gold, you know, in a shoe box beat the Dow, and I'm not talking about just the price, it actually beat the return because the dividend yield has been pretty low over these, you know, these uh years. uh you got you actually did better just holding holding a gold coin and and so I guess you know given that I think Wall Street finally recognizes that yes gold has a place in your portfolio and if that's the case well this rally has a long way to go because that means a lot of investors have a lot of gold they need to buy meanwhile the central banks are are are getting started I don't think they're nearly complete in their transformation of their reserves uh they still have a lot of dollars to get rid of and a lot of gold to buy. Before we continue with the video, let's talk about our sponsor today, ODU. ODU is a complete business management suite trusted by over 15 million users across the globe. Whether you're a freelancer or scaling a growing company, ODU brings everything into one place. Sales, CRM, accounting, inventory, HR, project management, and more. It's all fully centralized and integrated. Your CRM connects to your invoicing, your sales flow into your inventory, and your HR tools sync with payroll. Everything communicates in real time, reducing manual tasks and errors, and ODU grows with your business. Start with one app for free with unlimited hosting and support. Then add more as you scale. When you're ready to go allin, access the full suite starting at just $24.90 per month. Check out the link in the description down below to try ODU and simplify your business operations. That leads to my next question. A huge paradigm shift happening right now. Central banks accumulating gold. Depending on which source you're looking at, this chart may have slightly different numbers, but the trend is still the same. The world uh central banks are holding now a higher percentage of gold reserves uh than treasuries. Uh according to some sources, this chart shows that they're just about to equal uh 25 and 25%. However, the trend is indisputable across all sources. This trend is started to pick up around 2023. What is changing in the world right now fundamentally that it wasn't around or wasn't applicable maybe a couple years ago that is prompting all these central banks and foreign reserves to accumulate a lot more gold and dump treasuries. I mean, can it just be Trump's policies? Is it just as simple as that? >> No, I don't. It's not just Trump. I mean, Trump isn't helping. In fact, on the margin, he's he's hurting. But I think that the trends would have continued regardless of the outcome of the last election. I think, you know, a big catalyst, although not the cause cuz it would have happened anyway, but I think when Biden sanctioned Russia, and I said this at the time, that those sanctions were sending a powerful message to the whole world to get rid of dollars and not to use the US dollar and US treasuries as a reserve because we could, you know, yank them out from under you whenever we want. and and so that's not a good position to be in. Uh it's like, you know, tying a a rope around your neck, throwing the other end over a tree limb, and hoping the guy that catches it doesn't pull it, right? Uh so I I I thought that that would cause money to come out. But I think what's even more significant is a long overdue realization that the US cannot possibly repay its debt. honestly that the national debt which is now 38 trillion and of course that's just the the bonded debt not with all the unfunded liabilities but the treasuries that a lot of foreign central banks own there's no way the US government can repay that debt in money that isn't dramatically debased meaning that the US government will not be able to raise sufficient tax revenue to make good on its obligations the Fed is going to have to print the And also we have so much debt now that we can't even afford to pay a rate of interest that would be commensurate to the loss of purchasing power that you might experience holding US debt to maturity. And you know that's why Donald Trump is beating up the Fed to cut rates. In fact, that's why the Fed is cutting rates even though inflation is well north of their, you know, bogus 2% target and headed higher, right? Uh they're cutting rates when they should be hiking rates and it's mainly because we can't afford the rates that we have now, let alone the rates that would be required to restore inflation to 2%. Right? So, we're cutting rates, but we're letting our creditors know that if you hold dollar or treasuries, you know, you're going to lose. We are going to debase uh what you're holding and we're not going to pay you a a rate of interest that's anywhere near close to compensating you for what you're going to lose to inflation. And so I think given that the world has made a a decision to get out of dollars and get out of treasuries. Why hold US treasuries and earn a 3 or 4% yield if inflation in the US is going to be higher than that? And of course if the US dollar is going to lose more than that in terms of purchasing power on an annual basis. And so rather than holding dollars and investing them in treasuries, they're going to hold gold. I mean, that's it. I mean, it's, you know, we've basically put them in that in in that position. And I think what Donald Trump has done to really, you know, sound the alarm and, you know, give these guys, you know, a kick in the ass as far as getting this done is, you know, the Republicans and Trump, you know, campaigned on fiscal responsibility on, you know, we've got to rein in the Biden deficits. We had all this inflation because of deficit spending under Biden and the inflation reduction act. And so we need to get in there and we need to cut spending. And you know they they they had Elon Musk, we're going to come in with Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency, and we're going to slash and burn. We're going to be like Mille in Argentina. We're going to take a chainsaw to government. Right? So, you know, these promises were made and none of them were kept. And when Trump not only signed on to the big beautiful bill, but was one of the main reasons that it passed, he he he championed that that bill, which not only preserved all the Biden deficit spending, but made it worse. So that the deficits that Trump inherited from Biden and you know to say he inherited it, you know, he also created a lot of it when he was president, but forgetting about that, the deficits that he, you know, walked into when Biden gave him back the baton, they were now they're even worse. Now they're bigger than they were. On top of that, you know, your the credibility of the Fed, which in my mind, you know, there was no independence. It was more of a pretense, but now they're dropping the pretense. It's pretty obvious that the Fed is in is political and Donald Trump is trying to make it even more political by stacking it with, you know, his cronies the same way that Roosevelt stacked the Supreme Court to try to get his unconstitutional New Deal programs uh uh you know, approved by the court. You know, Trump wants guys on the Fed and he's going to have a chance to put somebody else in there to replace Pal. Uh because Trump wants interest rates slashed. Uh he wants the Fed to crank up the presses. So again, this is a message that look, if the Republicans are not going to be fiscally responsible, then nobody is going to be because we're certainly not going to get that from the Democrats. They want to spend more money. Then I think on top of all that, Trump vilified all of our trading partners by accusing them of ripping us off and exploiting us and we're going to put all these tariffs uh on on imports from your country. And I think he pissed off a lot of people and and literally bit the hands that have been feeding us because Trump really has it backwards. The world uh we've been taking advantage of the world. We've been ripping them off because they give us real stuff and we just print money and and and hand it to them. And so we we our lives are better because we have consumer goods that we didn't produce and all they get is paper. And and what they've been doing with that is just loaning it right back to us. They buy our treasuries, they buy our mortgage back securities, they buy our stocks. And so they prop up our asset prices, they suppress our interest rates. So we've been living off of this, right? We, you know, we we've gotten low prices for consumer goods, lower interest rates on our home loans or our car loans. Uh, and, you know, we've indulged ourselves at the expense of the rest of the world. You know, we've lived uh above our means uh because the world has been content to live beneath its means to make that possible. Well, I think all that is coming to an end. And I think that's what $4,000 goal is telling you. And this is not, you know, the end of this. the gold's going a lot higher, especially when the dollar really starts to tank. Uh, and and I think you're going to see that if not by the end of this year, uh, sometime in 2026, >> it's going to start to tank on the back of more fiscal responsibility. Maybe gold is signaling a lot more growth because if you got a lot of fiscal stimulus, well, that pretends economic growth, does it not? >> No, I don't think gold is signaling growth. I think it's signaling inflation. >> Okay. and and and and and so I think you're going to see the weakness in the dollar against other fiat currencies. I mean, clearly when gold is at 4,000 and it was at 2,000 2 years ago, the dollar's lost half of its purchasing power in terms of how much gold you can buy with your dollar. So, the dollar is losing value against real money right now, but so are the pound and the euro and the yen and all these other currencies. Um, but I do think that you're going to start to see the dollar losing a lot more value relative to its fiat counterparts, uh, either, you know, before the end of this year or or next year. And that's going to accelerate the increase in the price of gold in dollar terms. But I think it's already uh, you know, you know, giving you a forewarning that that's going to happen. And I think gold is rising as a reflection of a loss of confidence in the dollar because I think the main reason that gold is being accumulated is because central banks have lost confidence in the dollar and in the you know the the fiscal responsibility of the US government or any the credibility of the Federal Reserve. So you're seeing it first in gold. I think you'll next see it in the dollar and then I think you'll see it after that in the Treasury market where you'll start to see a big drop in bond prices and a rise in long-term yields despite the fact that the Fed is going to be reducing short-term rates. And I think that is going to be the catalyst for a return to quantitative easing because I think the Fed is going to try to uh lower long-term interest rates through its open market operations where it needs to print money to buy the bonds that the rest of the world is is selling and and so that I think will be another catalyst to drive gold to even higher levels because that's just massive inflation. And you know the last couple of times we tried a QE uh inflation at least the way the government purports to measure it was below 2%. So the government was able to justify QE by saying look you know inflation is below target and so we could do this uh because the goal is to get inflation higher to reach our target and so you know we're going to accomplish that with QE but if inflation is already well above 2% what is the excuse for creating more inflation? How do you justify QE when inflation is four or 5% the way the government measures it? >> That's simple. You just the Fed just moves its inflation target to 3% unofficially and then you've got more QE to be justified. >> Well, but that would I don't think they could do that because just moving it to 3%. Once you move the goalpost once, >> right? Well, now you've already broken trust because if you can move it to three, you can move it to four. But even moving it to three, uh, you know, is a big game changer because that means a 50% increase in annual inflation. So, I mean, what does that do to the present value of gold if inflation is going to be 50% higher from now until the end of time? But, of course, they're not going to achieve three because if they give up two and they move to three, well, then they're going to give up three. They've already proven that their target is BS when they're above it. they don't have uh the, you know, the monetary coonas to do what it takes to bring inflation down to 2%. Well, then why would they have it to bring it down to 3%. Or 4%. So, I think, you know, once they once they move it, they're they're they're done, which is why they probably won't. I I don't know that they're officially ever going to say that they have a target of three. I think they're gonna keep a target of two, but they're just never gonna hit it. And I thought it was really ridiculous in in the last FOMC meeting, somebody actually asked pal about the, you know, about his forecast because he pointed out, hey, you know, two years ago, you predicted that in 2 years inflation would be 2%. And now it's 2 years later and it's way above 2%. And you're still predicting that 2% will we'll have 2% inflation in two years. And he said, you know, why should we believe you? I mean, what makes you more confident now than you were 2 years ago when you made the same prediction? And Pal basically said, "Look, we don't really know where inflation is going to be in 2 years. It's just that 2% is our target. So, that's our forecast. We just we just assume that we're going to hit our target, but we have no idea." So, in other words, they just make it up. The only reason they forecast 2% is because they want it to be 2%. Not because they think it's going to be 2% or they have any reason to believe that it's going to be 2%. So they could just keep on talking 2% inflation, you know, just to pretend that they've got that target, but you know, we're we're not going to go anywhere near it. What they may do to try to get closer to 2% is not change the target, but change the CPI. I mean, that's how the government operates, right? you you change the methodology for calculating the CPI so that you get a you get a lower number that that's what they did with the Bosan Commission. That's why the whole CPI is irrelevant today because you know it's been uh rigged by the government to have a low number. >> One possible explanation for why the markets have been doing so well is because the Trump administration is openly uh encouraging government investments into some private sector companies. You even tweeted about this this morning. Uh, America's turning more socialistic. You said centrally planned economy. Trump wants to plan to invest taxpayer money in several quantum computing companies. Uh, maybe you think Trump is so smart that he's the one guy who can make socialism work. But how would you feel if AOC is the next president who gets to decide how to allocate capital in America? By the way, this is referring to a a Wall Street Journal article that that that is quoting people familiar with the matter. um since that article came out. CNBC ran an article saying that the government the commerce department is denying such claims. So um who who knows what's going on but uh all right so the official stance of the government is that they're denying this is happening. We'll see if they actually carry through with it. But what is the broader trend here that you're trying to tell tell us about in this tweet? Yeah. >> Well, Trump has already made investments in public companies that so it's it's it's already happened. So there you know it's not like this would be brand new. this would just be more of of what he's already done. But first of all, there's nothing in the US Constitution that authorizes the US government to invest money in companies. It's just not a legitimate function of the federal government, let alone the president of the United States, to just decide that the US government's going to invest in in in any company. >> Well, hold on. Isn't that isn't that what a lot of company countries around the world already do? They they they take stakes in companies or they nationalize some companies or Yeah. Go ahead. >> Yeah. Well, I'm not familiar with their constitutions. I don't know what, you know, what the law says in those countries, but you know, just because those countries do something wrong doesn't mean we should we should do it too, right? I mean, yeah. I mean, there's a lot of political pressure for governments to get involved normally by the companies that benefit. But what people o often overlook is to the extent that the government allocates money into particular companies, right? Well, that means money is being allocated away from other companies. So, the government is deciding where capital should be invested as opposed to the free market. And that's never uh a good thing. Just like we don't want the government to decide prices, we want the free market to decide what prices should be. Uh because those prices send important signals to uh producers and consumers regarding resources and how to allocate them and what to produce and what not to produce. The same thing with capital. We want investors um investing money in ventures that they believe are going to be profitable, right? Because they you need investment to be guided by a profit motive so that investments are directed to areas that may best produce results. Results that will improve our standard of living that will lead to production of goods and services that we value and that increase our our our life. But when the government is allocating capital, it's not doing it for those reasons because it's not allocating your own money. I mean, when Donald Trump decides to put taxpayer money into an investment, it doesn't cost him anything if if it goes sour, right? Like remember with Celindra, right? It's like I if you're investing somebody else's money and you have no skin in the game, what what the hell do you care? So now you start to be guided by politics, right? Which companies is the president investing in? What, you know, what is he getting under the table to allocate taxpayer money to these investments? what is his family going to going to benefit? How is are his personal business interests uh you know what what is he getting? What is the quidd pro that we don't know about that is guiding this? Or is he doing it for campaign donations or votes or you know what it's not real market forces, it's political forces that are behind the allocations. And then of course once the government has a stake in a business, right? Well, I mean, it's like, you know, it'd be like in a football game, the referee is a member of one of the teams. I mean, he's not he's not going to call everything fair when, you know, he wants his team to win. So, if the government is invested in the company, >> well, it's going to naturally want that company to do better than its competitors. So, it's going to, you know, rig the field and it's going to, you know, pass, you know, maybe some laws or regulations that might advantage the company that it is invested in at the expense of the companies that it hasn't invested in. Um, so, you know, this is not what government is supposed to do. Certainly not in the United States, but it shouldn't do it anywhere. Um, government needs to just stay out. Government's there just to protect our rights, uh, not to invest our money. I just want to get rich off the markets, says a lot of people. Okay? So, I don't I don't care what the government's doing, but let's just follow this trend. If the government is investing in tech companies, whether it's constitutional or not, we can debate that. Let's just follow that lead and invest in tech companies. Where's the evaluate that logic, please? >> Yeah. Well, again, that may be causing a misallocation of resources. people want to invest where the government is putting money because they think that they'll do better because the government is propping up those those stocks. And so if people if people decide to invest money where the government is is is misdirecting it, they're taking those funds away from other uh areas that they might have invested in. And that maybe the free market would have allocated capital someplace else, but because of the government, those other businesses are not getting that capital. that capital is being sucked away and put into, you know, quantum computing or AI or wherever the government decides that it it wants to go. Uh but maybe the free market which is going to be a better allocator of capital. I mean there is no precedent in in human history for governments doing a better job of allocating capital than a free market. It just there is no example of that and it's not going to change. you know, we're not going to be the first example of of socialism being better than capitalism. Uh, and so, uh, yeah, it's a mistake, and I'm sure a lot of investors are going to do this. Look at all the resources that have been misdirected to the crypto industry. What a gigantic waste because the president has decided to make crypto a priority to have pretty much a crypto cabinet with a cryptozar and his family has decided to make crypto the family business. I mean, forget about real estate or whatever else they're doing. Their main industry now is crypto and Bitcoin and whatever. and and and so there he's trying to channel uh all kinds of resources into an industry that he's now, you know, betting on personally. But if you listen to how the crypto industry tries to, you know, to promote itself now, it's basically saying, hey, the government has embraced it. The government has legitimized it. The government is now friendly to crypto. The government's going to have a Bitcoin strategic reserve. And so because of the government promoting crypto, you should invest in it. You should put money in these companies, right? So people are doing that because the government has put its seal of approval on this particular industry which could end up being a disaster and I think it will be. I think the whole thing is a giant Ponzi scheme. I think we are squandering all these resources uh that could have been put to productive use. I mean, the president makes a big deal, and rightly so, out of the fact that our manufacturing is gone and our industrial base is gone, and and he thinks we're going to get it back with tariffs. Well, the tariffs are going to backfire and make it worse. But what's also going to make it worse is misdirecting resources that could have gone to building factories, to creating memecoins. You know, what the hell are they going to produce? I mean, if we spend all this resources on crypto, then we have even bigger trade deficits because the crypto industry produces nothing, right? So, the things that we need to buy, then we have >> Well, you think about it, it's a smart way to increase the money supply, isn't it? You produce memecoins out of thin air. They go up in value. Presumably, the people who buy them get richer and the Fed doesn't have to print more money. It's kind of clever. >> Well, they only get they only get richer if they sell them. >> And they're getting richer because somebody else is dumb enough to buy them. Now the one way that it, you know, it it does lead to more inflation is to the extent that they can leverage them. People can go out, you can take the crypto assets and jack up the price and then you can find some bank uh that that will loan you money on that crypto collateral, right? So you're manufacturing collateral out of thin air and then you're borrowing against it. So there that creates inflation right there. But nobody would be dumb enough to lend you money on that if it wasn't for the government support, you know. >> All right, comment down below if you would buy a Trump memecoin if he makes a new one. I want to draw your attention to this. I'll play 30 seconds of this. It's a quote from Anton Kobakov. It's uh he's one of Putin's adviserss. This is circulating on social media all throughout September. I haven't had a chance to ask you about it because I haven't had you on the show since September, but take a listen. alternative. Crypto. Basically, he's saying um the uh the US now trying to rewrite the rules of the gold and cryptocurrency markets. Uh remember the size of the debt 35 trillion. Actually, it's 38 trillion as of today. Just reported. These two sectors, crypto and gold, are essentially alternatives to the traditional global currency system. Washington's actions in this area clearly highlights one of its main goals to urgently address the declining trust in the dollar is in the 1930s and the 70s the US plans to solve its financial problems at the world's expense and this time by pushing everyone into the crypto cloud. So he's basically accusing the US of issuing stable coins to deval to hide its debt and shove its debt into the cloud. So I'll let you comment on that. Maybe maybe you've seen this already. >> Well, I don't know. Um, well, first of all, I don't think the Bitcoin is a a legitimate alternative to the dollar the way gold is. I think that's how Bitcoin is marketed and promoted by the industry that it is an alternative, but but I don't think it is. I think it's, you know, very different than gold. In fact, it's probably the anti-gold. And if anything, it's more negatively than positively correlated with gold. I think the reason that Bitcoin has gone up is because tech stocks have gone up and you have a a positive correlation there uh between you know high-risk uh speculative assets and that's where where Bitcoin is. Gold has not gone up because it's a speculative asset. It's gone up as a safe haven as a store of value as a legitimate alternative to the US dollar. So they're moving sometimes in the same direction but for for different reasons. But I don't think uh that the stable coin industry is really going to do much uh for the US ability to finance its debts because to the extent that people decide to keep more money in in US dollar stable coins, they're going to take that money out of money markets for example and so that's going to reduce the demand for US treasuries from money markets and just you know shift it uh to stable coins. But I really don't see a lot of demand for stable coins. I think most people today that use them. They're crypto traders and so they're just parking money there uh between their their trades. I I don't see a lot of demand for, you know, the general public to hold US dollar stable coins if they're not using them to trade Bitcoin or Ethereum or any of these things because you don't get any interest on a stable coin. If I keep my money in a money market, I'm getting like 4% interest and I've got plenty of liquidity. I can have a checkbook. I can have a debit card. I can use my money market to fund uh transactions through, you know, like a PayPal or uh Venmo or, you know, so you know, why would you give up your interest on your money just to hold a stable coin and earn no interest? I mean, it's a great deal for the stable coin issuers because they take everybody's money and they buy the treasuries and they keep all of the yield for themselves and give none of it to the stable coin owners. >> I want to get your reaction to uh to Scott's comment on this. We haven't uh spoken about this, you and I, because this was issued in July. We last spoke in May. The Genius Act passed during the summertime, as you know. It's uh it's a new law that mandates that new uh government uh issued stable coins have to be backed one to one to the US dollar. This is what Scottison had to say. Stable coins represent a revolution in digital finance. The dollar now has an internet native payment rail that is fast, frictionless, and free of middlemen. This groundbreaking technology will buttress the dollar status as a global reserve currency, expand access to the dollar economy for billions across the globe, and lead to a surge in demand for US treasuries, which now back stable coins. This goes back to your earlier discussion about the US dollar losing status. Perhaps this, according to Bent at least, is going to, in his words, butress demand for US treasuries. It'll save the US dollar, Peter. >> Yeah. Yeah. Look, I think that's all a bunch of BS. I mean, that's hype. Uh, that's designed to promote crypto and Bitcoin so that Trump's uh, you know, insiders, his friends, his campaign donors, uh, can hype up the market that they're selling into. So, I think, uh, there's no, uh, connection in reality there. I don't see a huge demand for US dollar stable coins. First of all, you know, they can issue stable coins denominated in euros, uh, denominated in Swiss Franks. I mean, anybody could do this uh all around the world. Uh and so I don't know why people would say, well, I want to have a stable coin that's stable to the dollar, especially when we have all this debt and we're creating all this inflation. So, to the extent that people want a stable coin, let's say I'm living in Europe, why would I want it to be uh pegged to the dollar? I mean, I might I might pick the euro or, you know, the Swiss Frank or or something else. Um, but I think ideally and ironically the the concept of of of having a token backed by something the the best thing to back a token would be gold. I mean that. So to me, a goldbacked token, a tokenized gold, right, which would be a token that's stable to the price of gold that could be used as a medium of exchange, uh, as a unit of account, as a store of value. I mean, people could have make payments and receive payments in gold just as easily as US dollars. I think that's a big threat to the dollar because one of the things that the dollar had over gold was that it was more convenient to use dollars than it was to use gold. You know, it's easier for me uh to go into a Starbucks and buy a cup of coffee with dollars than with gold. But with tokenized gold or, you know, gold stable coins, it's just as easy to buy coffee in dollars. But more importantly, it's just as easy for the for the coffee merchant to be paid gold for his coffee. And you know that I think that's ultimately what's going to drive uh the the you know the payments in the future is going to be the preference of the seller, the provider of goods and services. How do they prefer to be paid? Do they want to be paid in a rapidly depreciating fiat currency or do they want to be paid in real money that holds its value? You know, because >> we don't have that option though, right? I can't I can't I can't, you know, accept payment in gold right now. >> If there was a gold if there was a gold like stable coins, right? >> Right. Okay. >> A a a store could say, "Yes, we accept payment in these this coin. You can pay us in this token." Right. >> Sure. and and then they could get paid in gold. They could give you maybe even a little discount if you pay in gold because they prefer to receive gold because gold will maintain its value. See what's going to happen I think with a lot of companies as inflation really starts to accelerate. >> Let's say I've got a business and prices are rising 10% a month. If I sell you something and I take dollars now I've got to replace my inventory. Well, what if the inventory is getting so expensive that it it cost me more to replace what I just sold you? So, what might have to happen is that in order to maintain some stability, businesses will move away from depreciating fiat currencies and just work with gold because they know, okay, if I accept gold for my products, when I have to restock, I have gold to pay because prices won't be going up in gold. they they're going up in dollars, but they may be stable or going down in gold. So, that's the currency I'd rather get paid in uh would be gold. And that gold isn't currency. Gold is actual money. Yeah. We have a few minutes left, Peter. I want to get your reaction to one final piece of story. This is breaking uh uh on Wall Street this this week. Regional banks uh reacting to bad loans. Zance Bank, Western Alliance Bank, investment firm Jeff uh surprised investor by disclosing various bad investments in their books. reaction from Jamie Diamond, chief of Morgan Stanley, he said, and I quote, "When you see one cockroach, there may be possibly more." Um, and I think uh this article from the Los Angeles Times closes withinvestors are wondering if there might be bad news to come. In other words, more and more cockroaches. How would you respond to this? What is going on right now? >> Well, look, Jamie Diamond ought to know because they're hitched cockroaches, right? But um look, obviously we have credit excesses. We've had a huge uh credit bubble fuel by by the Fed and government uh backed banks and loans. In fact, the main reason that the Fed stopped hiking rates the first time wasn't because they won the battle against inflation, but because the collateral damage was uh causing banks to fail. You got Silicon Valley Bank failed. You got Signature Bank, there was another one. And and that was it. the Fed basically stopped hiking rates uh because the rates were so high and they weren't even that high but the banks started to fail and more banks would have failed had the Fed kept kept hiking. Uh so they stopped and I think one of the main reasons they're cutting rates is because more banks would fail if the Fed left rates where they are. Uh and that's because I think all of our banks are fundamentally insolvent. And they're insolvent because of Fed policy. They've kept interest rates so low for so long that if the Fed were to normalize rates, and they're not normal now, they're still too low. Despite all the talk that rates are too high and they need to come down, $4,000 gold is proof that rates are too low and need to go up. You know, Allan Greenspan when he was Fed chairman, he told the the the Senate or the House that if gold got to 400, that meant that monetary policy was too easy. That was his way of keeping the US on a gold standard was to watch the price of gold as an indicator of whether or not he had monetary policy right. And he said, "If gold gets to 400, that's telling me that I'm too loose." Well, we're 10 times that price now. So, if $400 gold was saying the Fed was too loose, what is I mean, what is $4,000 gold uh uh saying? So, yes, you know, we have all kinds of of bad loans uh including the US government, right? The US government has borrowed much more money than it can ever repay. It has borrowed more money than it can service. But the only reason we have 38 trillion in debt is because interest rates have been kept so low for so long. If interest rates were much higher, the government couldn't have borrowed all this money. We couldn't have afforded it. So, we would have been forced to cut government spending years ago, decades ago, if it had not been enabled by the Fed. And so, yes, there's cockroaches all over the place, uh, not just in in these small banks, everywhere, including the White House, you know, Congress, uh, the Federal Reserve. So, they're all going to they're all going to come out. One more sentence here. Uh, there were other signs of distress. Federal Reserve data shows that banks tap the central bank's overnight repo facilities, an action not taken since CO. This facility allows banks to convert highly liquid securities such as bonds and treasuries into cash to help fund their short-term cash shortfalls. The bottom line is here is Peter, are you concerned about another regional banking crisis right now or is this just a case of a few banks mismanaging their loan books? >> Well, I'm more concerned uh about a US dollar and sovereign debt crisis because I think that's going to be the consequence of the Fed bailing out all these banks and preventing that. You know, the Fed does these stress tests every year and I always point out that the stress tests are are all BS because they don't stress test for stagflation. They they don't they don't have any scenario in which they test how a bank would perform with stackflation. So if we had a recession with rising inflation and rising interest rates, they don't test any banks for that. And I think that's because they know they would all fail. And so they don't even want to run a test if they already know uh that no one's going to pass. Uh but that is the environment that we're in and it's going to get a lot worse and I think the only way that we're not going to see widespread failure in the banking system is if we have massive money printing. Uh and so that's going to ultimately cause a dollar and sovereign debt crisis. And again that is what gold is telling you. Gold is the monetary canary in the coal mine. Gold is shooting up now for a reason. uh and uh you know to me it's very much like the collapse of subprime in 2007 because I had been forecasting subprime to collapse for years before it did. But I I forecast that as part of a broader banking crisis, financial crisis that I knew would follow the collapse of uh the subprime market which would ultimately take down the mortgage market and the banking system and Fetty and Fanny and and I I I've been talking about that and warning about that. I wrote about it. But when the subprime uh market blew up in ' 07, the mainstream dismissed it as an isolated event. Even the Federal Reserve said, "Don't worry, it's contained." And I was out there saying, "No, it's not. It's it's the tip of this huge iceberg. Just wait." And of course, we had the crisis the following year in 2008. Well, to me, I've been I've been warning about a big move up in the price of gold uh as you know, a for foreshadowing a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis, and now it's happening. And just like the mainstream dismissed the warning from subprime, they're dismissing the warning from gold. But I think gold is just indicating that a much bigger crisis is coming. And I've even heard people say that we don't have to worry about the price of gold because the dollar is not falling because the bond market isn't falling. And so therefore, gold's rise is not reflective of a loss of confidence in the dollar or the bond market. And my response to that is just wait. Gold is the first shoe to drop. Gold soaring like this is telling you that the dollar is going to go down, that bonds are going to go down. If you wait for that, if you wait for the move in gold to also be reflected in a big down move in the dollar and a down move in the bond market, well, you you know, you're too late. You know, you're too late to diffuse the crisis, but you're also too late uh to prepare for it financially. That's why I'm, you know, I keep, you know, reiterating with my clients, look, look, you got to buy gold, you got to buy silver, you know, hey, you got to dip now to 4,100 or, you know, I think 4,000 is really the new 3,000 for gold. So 4,000 is kind of the support. Doesn't mean we can't go below it, but I think any dip below 4,000 will be shortlived. Silver got up to 54 and change, so it took out the the 50 double top. We're back below 50 now. I mean, silver is a lot more volatile. You don't have the central bank buying to stabilize it like you do in gold. But look, I think silver has clearly broken out. It's proven that 50 isn't a ceiling anymore. Soon it's going to be the floor. People should be buying silver. I think it's very cheap. Uh and people should be getting out of US assets. I think the US stock market, which has been really in a in a massive bare market for, you know, 25 years, I think that bare market is going to accelerate. But uh finally after many many years uh foreign markets are smoking US markets. I think the S&P is up maybe 13 14% this year. I've got a foreign dividend payer fund that's up almost 50% this year. This isn't my gold fund. This is just my defensive dividend paying stock fund. But so foreign markets are finally way outperforming the US. And I think that trend is going to continue. It's not just central bankers who are getting out of dollars into gold. It's foreign investors who are going to be getting out of US investments and reinvesting domestically. That's going to be followed by Americans uh diversifying internationally. So all these flows are going to be reversed. All the money that was coming into the US capital markets is going to leave and go into these foreign markets. So people should, you know, contact my my firm, Europe Pacific Asset Management because our strategies are specifically designed for this reallocation of capital and the phenomenal returns that we've had so far in 2025, I think, are just the beginning of at least a decade of major outperformance. So you can invest directly with us or I have five mutual funds that people can buy anywhere and they can get information on my funds uh at my website at europac.com. We'll put the links below so you can follow Peter's work there. And yeah, congrats on your uh gold calls. You've been, you know, sounding alarm bell on gold and you've you've been right all year. So, congrats on that. What are you thankful for? Thanksgiving is coming up. Let's end here. You've got uh one we've got one month. Yeah. One month till American Thanksgiving. What are you most thankful for this year, Peter? >> Well, I mean, I still have my health. You know, I you know, um I'm you know, I live in a wonderful community. you know, I've got uh you know, some great kids and wife, so you know, I mean, I'm 62 and so I mean, I guess the health and the fact I have a good quality of life is probably uh, you know, what I'd be most thankful for. And yeah, I've done well and I I think I I pretty much have uh the money at this point and the resources to uh, you know, to live out my life uh comfortably and and do the things that I want to do. Uh, but I I'm still trying to make a a a more meaningful impact on the direction that the country is in. I mean, I do uh love the country, at least what it what it used to be and what it stood for and the sacrifices that were made uh decades before I was born uh to preserve the freedoms that we not only take for granted right now, but that we are happily giving up. >> Yeah. >> Uh and and so I think I still have enough time left to uh to try to make a positive difference. And who knows with AI, uh, you know, you never know. Maybe 62, uh, isn't that old anymore. We'll see. Maybe they'll >> All right. Well, only they'll be able to turn back the clock, you know. >> Well, we're thankful for you uh sharing your thoughts and uh giving us your time. So, please do follow Peter. Links down below. Thank you, Peter. We'll speak again soon. Take care for now. >> All right. Take care. >> Yeah. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.