Physical SILVER is 'Going EXTINCT' – Prices Headed 'Vertical': Ian Everard
Summary
Silver Market Dynamics: Ian Everard discusses a potential "mass extinction event" for physical silver due to shortages, which could lead to a significant price spike as demand outpaces supply.
Gold and Silver Performance: Silver has outperformed gold with an 82% increase year-to-date compared to gold's 60%, driven by strong fundamentals and market dynamics.
Silver Shortages: Reports indicate zero free float of silver inventory at the LBMA, necessitating massive silver deliveries to resume normal operations, highlighting the supply constraints in the market.
Industrial Demand: China's solar expansion and the military-industrial complex's requirements are driving significant industrial demand for silver, contributing to its price increase.
Investment Strategy: Everard suggests using silver as a vehicle to accumulate gold, given silver's potential for higher percentage gains as the gold-to-silver ratio narrows.
Reinium Investment: Reinium is highlighted as a promising investment due to its limited supply, high-value industrial uses, and the U.S. government's strategic interest in securing stockpiles.
Geopolitical and Economic Risks: The discussion touches on the potential collapse of fiat currencies and the implications of geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the importance of precious metals as a hedge.
Market Opportunities: Arc Silver offers silver at spot prices and reinium in various quantities, providing opportunities for investors to diversify their portfolios with tangible assets.
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we dive into commodities markets, sound money principles and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day and on this episode I'm thrilled to welcome Ian Everard to the program the owner of Arc Silver Gold osmium and an enthusiast and analyst in the precious metal space. Ian believes we are entering a mass extinction event for physical silver as shortages rock the market and the metal starts to become unobtanium. A dynamic that could cause a massive price spike beyond what most are expecting. Will there come a time when it's too late to pile in as the retail crowd desperately chases silver and how will that affect the market dynamics? We also dive into gold's incredible rise and what it means for the global economy and monetary system. Why an obscure metal called reinium is about to go into a face melting rally and so much more. So strap yourselves in for my conversation with Ian Everard. Ian Everard, great to have you back on Commodity Culture. Last time I had you on the show, you questioned whether the gold bull run was a distraction and you speculated that silver was actually the metal that people should be paying attention to. And that has certainly played out with silver up around 82% year to date compared to around 60% for gold. A gap that has really started to grow recently, although both metals continue to rip to new all-time highs. Let's hone in on silver first, though. What are your thoughts on silver's dramatic rise? I think we're getting close to $54 as of the time of this recording. And do you think we'll see continued outperformance of silver over gold from here? >> I I'm hoping we'll get a pause and the ratio will stabilize around 80 to1 just to get people used to that. Um whether we get the luxury of a pause. I mean, yes, as we speak, we're we're 10 cents off $54 on silver and the and the ratio is pretty well around 80 to1. Um, but I think all the fundamentals are still driving silver even harder than gold. >> And in terms of silver shortages, this is another story that has been coming up, particularly when it comes to the LBMA. Uh, there's been reports that they have zero free float of silver inventory at the moment. And this is a big factor in terms of driving prices higher. I was speaking to Mario and Ekko and Eric Young the other day and they were saying that it's going to take something like 500 plane loads worth of silver to deliver to the LBMA before it can start operating again. I I wonder what your view is on that. Have you heard anything regarding silver shortages at the LBMA and any potential implications you think that could have on the silver market? >> Yeah, I mean there's two views. There's the sort of total line view I watch. Uh, I think it's called Gold Core. Really smart lady on that. And she thinks, "No, everything's fine. It'll all get smoothed out." I'm not so sure. I mean, there's information. You look at what the refiners are doing or not doing. Um, they're not taking sterling silver. They're not taking 90% constitutional silver. They're just concentrating on using 39 or 49 silver and turning into thousand bars or to mine concentrate and dory. I think they're under some pressure or great pressure to keep cranking out the thousand ounce bars to try and keep filling the um exchange for physical um requirement. And that seems to be every time we get a big surge, there's a surge in people standing for physical instead of dollars. And it's a riskreward um choice. And I think the more people who've actually know I'll stand for physical, I'll take the physical now, it's worked out for them time and time again because then they, you know, the current price jumps up. Whereas I think are we still at 48 for the year end futures? It's it's a ridiculous difference between the the live reality and what you may be able to well you could pay for your silver in the future now, but whether you'll get it or not. So I think that is a fascinating figure. You said 50 plane loads of silver. >> 500 I believe is what is statistics that Eric Young. >> Yeah. I I mean you think two weeks ago the best calculations was the LBMA had 6 weeks left of free float that was presumed to be available. So obviously they're fudging the figures. I whatever silver there I think it's owned multiple times or it's been leased shipped out. the lease has sold it presuming they can make out like a bandit in AI or crypto with the dollars and then come back in and make a profit that way and they've got burnt whereas pretty well all other assets are falling and silver's going up. So the squeeze if anybody well we know people are doing that and have been doing that it's worked really well for them. It's they're really getting punished now because until they can actually get hold of the physical silver, they can't can't turn their exposure off. Um, we are seeing incredibly high prices for silver in Brenton. I track it being a Brit ex, you know, ex Brit stroke American. I don't know. I think I'm a bit of both. I mean, silver silver bratas. Yeah, >> these are $75 each. >> $75 in the >> UK. 7. Yeah, the equivalent of $75. Now, yes, you've got purchase tax factor into that, but that's a reality for a stacker on the ground if they want to buy a new Britannia 75 bucks whereas here they're 54 plus for they're 58 bucks here. Um, but people are still buying them and we've seen stories in Poland that uh dealers are offering $6 over spot for any sovereign coin just so they can get some stock. So, we've got just a little lag here, a little luxury, but already we're seeing um maybe we should title this um interview a mass >> event. >> I like it. Silver's mass extinction. I love that. Yeah, >> mass extinction event. The These are extinct. I cannot get any more of these. >> Really? >> Beautiful 100 oz 49 fine Royal Canadian mint bars. Gone. Um, Valkcam kilos gone. Extinct. >> Wow. >> Um, maples extinct. Out of stock, out of stock. Platinum Eagles extinct. Unavailable. Um, it goes on and on. Palladium any form of pladium there is zero available platinum extinct the only platinum I can get is 1/10enth ounce bratannias this is unusual because it's across the metals now um gold Canadian maples we could add gold extinction extinct can't get them like um if the public wake up and people have thinking of buying, choose to buy, give it a day or two, there's not going to be anything left. >> Well, that's what's being discussed by a lot of stackers. I believe Mike Maloney coined the term that silver will one day be unoptanium. I wonder if we're entering that era because, as you said, we've seen the videos online of a lineups down the block and I believe it's ABC Bullan in Australia. Um, Costco has entered the game. Walmart, some of these big box retailers started to sell physical gold and silver as well. And the public consciousness is starting to catch on. And if we know how most of that herd mentality works, it's a number goes up and that's when people start to dive in and pay attention because the FOMO starts to kick in and they say, "Oh my god, silver is $50, but what if it goes to 100 because look at what gold's doing." Um, do you anticipate a a point in time, you kind of alluded to it there, where the retail crowd wants to pile in and there's just nothing available. And what what would that do to prices ultimately? >> Uh, pre premiums premiums will just go go vertical. We'll be back to $16 premiums on eagles. I mean, again, there's one thing I didn't mention on that list of extinctions. 2025 silver eagles. That's my last tube extinct. >> Wow. Um so yeah, premiums are going to rise. They are rising. We've seen one to$2 premium um increases. Um so yeah, unfortunately the retail market is so small in dollar terms compared to the amount that people have got in their savings accounts, money markets, um even SLV, PSLV. We've got a lot of clients who do you know what? I'm getting out of dodge. I do not want my metal in a theoretical fund. And and I know the PSLV is supposed to be one of the best and you know that whole setup they they buy the silver before they issue more shares. They do it the right way. But where's it stored in the Royal Canadian Mint? Who owns the Royal Canadian Mint? Um probably >> I can show you a picture. I won't say the words. >> I think he owns the Royal Canadian Mint. >> So, counter party risk. We're seeing crazy stuff worldwide now. You know, we've got wars breaking out. The US, we are creating wars. It looks like we we want to re regime change in Venezuela. It looks like we're aiding Tibetan Pakistan to evade invade Afghanistan. It's just on and on and on. So, we've got all these border conflicts. Um, we could wake up tomorrow and was it Maria Shinbal, the Mexican president? >> She could say, "Do you know what? We're not Silver's going up so fast. I think we'll just keep it for a bit and we'll see where it lands before we start selling it again." I mean, if they did that, silver would be three four $500 next week. >> Very fascinating times for the metal. I wonder what your thoughts are here on the industrial component because that's obviously one of the things that makes silver unique. Do you think the main driver of this current run it part of it could be the industrial side because of how vital it is for for so many industrial purposes, every sort of electronics, solar panels, we know the whole story. >> Absolutely spot on. Um, you look at China's plan for solar, the way they're ramping up solar, they're going to be uh nearly reaching requirement of 400 million ounces of silver a year. It's like and when China decides it's going to do something from the CCP, you know, from Z down, it tends to get done or the people that say no, you can't do it die, you know. So, they have every motivation to make it happen. what that would what that is causing the price of silver to do is is you know I is we we've got that difference in the Shanghai I I don't know if it's correct um I'm sure people can check it if you go to the Shanghai gold exchange we've got a great difference against the Chinese spot for silver than the US spot that arbitrage is going to get filled you know I mean traditionally wholesalers can work on a 10 or 15 cents margin per ounce Um, if you can make four, five, $6 by getting the silver to China, people are going to find a way. So, I I think China is sucking up huge huge amounts of silver. So, you know, and then you add the military-industrial complex in the US, the amount of silver, no real transparent figures um on what the military is using. But any high-tech military equipment will have silver wires, it'll have silver heat sinks, it'll have silver alloys. Even the superructure of the airframes um could well be uh silver aluminum alloy. Uh just on and on. And there's talk even of silver iron um jet engines or propulsion systems. So I I don't think the industrial demand eases up now even as we enter a global recession. Um and then there's the pretty quick well pretty quick um a year maybe a year into a recession zinc copper and lead mining will be reduced to some extent. That's where 70 80% of the silver comes from is a byproduct. So you you you've got a a perfect storm there in the supply and demand uses and and a lot of these industrial uses are high value uses. So they're not that sensitive to the price. So so in a normal dynamics as a cost of something goes up um the demand drops so the you know the supply available supply increases so the price corrects. I I don't think we're going to see that in silver now. And then you add in people waking up. You know, we got a lot of firsttime buyers who've been known the lie of the dollar, but it's been working really well for them for a long for decades. Now, some of them are thinking, you know what, I need to put a million or two into something real. It really doesn't take many of those across the industry and silver's gone. >> Yeah. Now, I think a question a lot of stackers out there have or people who are new uh to gold and silver and have realized, okay, the fiat currency system isn't working. Clearly, this is a long-term trend. I want to get my hands on some physical silver, but obviously a lot of people have an aversion to buying something that's ripping to new all-time highs. Do you think this is a time to proceed with caution or is the greater fear to be sitting on the sidelines hoping for a dip only to see silver skyrocket out of reach? >> Uh I think and and on previous history when we've had pretty rapid moves if we do get a pull back the increase in premiums will wipe that out. So you'll still pay as much per ounce. You know there's going to be distortions to that as secondary market comes on. I know some coin shops I got contacts with some coin shops in Utah. I know they've been swamped with people selling product. Um so temporarily um some coin shops will be selling at spot or below spot just to to keep their cash flow. Um most banks are not interested in lending to the bullion industry. Um why I don't know. Well, I do know but I'm not going to say don't want to upset my bank. So yeah, scary alltime high. Yeah. No, I I had this when we broke to the mid-30s last year. Uh I remember one day I placed an order at $36 something spot. That day I was the only customer of one of the largest wholesalers in the US that bought silver. Everyone else was holding back. No, this is going to pull back. Why? Why buy it and hedge and do all of that? I'll wait. And and it it didn't pull back. So yeah, fear of missing out, not a good reason. Because if you got if it's a FOMO, it means you're over over emotional about the decision, it's going to be a short-term decision. And then if it does pull back a little bit, you think you're going to are going to dump this and move on to the next shiny thing. And so so that's not for you. >> Yeah, I completely agree with that. I think people have to ask themselves the question, are you buying physical gold and silver to remove your wealth from the financial system to take it out of counterparty risk to use it as a store of value, a hedge against all all of the things that traditional stackers, you have to understand the asset class before you pile into it. Right. >> Exactly. To to do it on a I mean, although you could have done really well on a momentum trade, if you got a good deal with a small spread, you you could have been making 10% a week, you know. Um and and and another one one final thing is it's the privacy. >> Yes. >> You know depending on the size of your purchase and depending who you purchase it from and how you purchase it, it's a can be a private transaction that is not declarable. That could be the most valuable aspect of owning precious metals. I cannot see how the US can go forward without more financial repression and more taxation. Now the lie might be, oh yes, corporation tax is low and the billionaires are paying less tax. Yes, that's true. But what about the rest of us? We will be paying more tax one way or the other. Um silver in a lot of states now is voluntary legal tender. Um how that plays out into sales tax. I don't know. I'm having discussion here where we live in rural Idaho. We get our tax dollars a sack sucked up and go to Boise four and a half hours away where we never see them again. Uh well, what would happen if we introduced a local currency physical metal? What would that attack? How how do you charge sales tax on that? Do you clip a little bit off the coin? It's like so we may be able to develop legal ways of using silver in a local community that are sales tax exempt, federal tax exempt and private. Um I I think a lot of people, smart people will be pushing forward with that. Um I mean obviously there's already the informal economy. Um I am aware of transactions happening um that are fully private. When it comes to the gold market now, we're seeing gold look like it's going to potentially hit $5,000. Um I I think that's a very realistic price target at this point. The interesting thing is with the speed that gold is rising, I've spoken to a lot of guests on this show who have said, "Yeah, I'd love gold to go up, but it's a scary world that we'll be living in when gold gets to the previous number was 5,000. Only a year ago, a lot of people were saying that. Um I think it's going to hit that." >> Yeah. What what is gold's rapid rise telling us about the global economy, our monetary system, and what are the risks here? Is is is the risk that we could see a collapse of fiat currencies worldwide? Because obviously that's the, you know, the endgame that some stackers talk about, could we be facing that in in the near-term future? >> I think we're seeing it real time. I think we're actually seeing the accounting for the currency debasement. I mean the the upto-date figures a few weeks ago was worldwide we now have 80 80 times more currency than we had in 1980. So if you take the lowest price of gold in 1980 and multiply it by 80 that's the sort of minimum we're going to go to. Um you know what was I don't know what was the lowest price. It was in quite a few hundred dollars. So that is what precious metals have done throughout history. They give a thorough accounting absolute thorough precise accounting for currency debasement. So we are in the midst of a fiat currency collapse. >> That's a scary proposition. Now on the other side of that, how do you expect things to play out? That's a tough question. I know because nobody can really foresee the future. How will governments react? You know, I think we're already seeing some of that in terms of governments trying to clamp down, gain more control over citizens, start wars abroad to distract people. You know, I think the Venezuela story has a lot to do with oil in an effort to perhaps prevent runaway inflation in energy, which is a major input into the global economy and people's everyday lives. Um, how how do you think that would play out and and how do you expect governments to react? >> I think it is playing out. I mean, you've got mass surveillance in the US, completely illegal, and to a certain extent, it's even been boasted about. There was a recent event, I won't say which event, people can do a bit of research or give me a call, I'll tell them what the event was, where somebody boasted that 270,000 cell phones were tracked. So, the whole area where these people was geo fenced. Now, as far as I'm aware, there's only one country in the world that got the technology to do that, and it's not the US. So, a foreign country geoence and track 270,000 cell phones at a recent event without their permission, without their consent. Now, we have a constitution here. Now, it might not expressly say about cell phones because obviously they weren't a thing when the constitution was written, but there's certain things about privacy, freedom of movement, uh not to be stopped, not to have your goods even looked at, let alone, you know. So we we're we're in the midst of it and and what I mean anybody's got half a brain. What do you think the Doge team was actually doing? They were collecting all of the data from all of the agencies. It was nothing about efficiency. It was getting full access to the full computer records. Where did they take them? Palunteer. Who's Palanteer? They are the private quai private government entity that manages all of the US government data now and has access to all US government data. Uh if that doesn't make you concerned, go back to sleep. It's like and if we think you can get another passport and fly to another country and void of all of this. No, this is a worldwide thing that is happening. We are heading towards one world government, one world currency, one world army, one world police force, one world illegal system. Um there will be nowhere to run. So all we can do and I say all it's a huge thing is form our own parallel survival system which for me is precious metals, firewood, food, energy, you know that's that's the best we can do. Make make ourselves as resilient as possible because this is an onslaught. It does not stop. And interestingly, Peter Teal, co-founder of Palunteer, has given multiple presentations on the Antichrist. This is very bizarre. He has this kind of obsession with the Antichrist. And a lot of people are pointing out you're kind of you're a very interesting representation of what could be the Antichrist. You're the one trying to warn us. It's almost like, you know, the greatest trick the devil pulled was convincing us he didn't exist. It feels like a perhaps a little bit of that is coming. Guys, careful of the Antichrist. It's totally not me, guys. It's just But be careful. He's coming. You know, it's like, wow. Very, very fascinating stuff. >> Recently, and again, talking about distractions. Um, I think Bitcoin is being a distraction. >> Okay, tell us about that. >> Um, I plotted I plotted this out this morning. I don't know how well this will show up. So, that is Bitcoin gold ratio. >> Yeah. So we peaked we peaked in 2021 um towards just the end of 21. That was the highest ratio of how much gold you needed to get one bitcoin. I'm predicting now bitcoin will never recover against gold. It will never get up to that 37 to1 ratio again. Gold will keep going up faster. Now you're going to get the volatility in Bitcoin and you'll get the hysteria. I mean, how many headlines have we seen? Bitcoin reaches alltime high, but no one checked against what? Like against gold. It was four years ago. It's yesterday's thing. And when people realize that, they're not going to jump into it because the momentum is gone. We're not going to see that. I mean, it rose, you see, from 5.9 all the way up to 37. Uh, we're not going to see that again. Uh, and I may get a lot of I mean, if you're going to make a mean comment because you love Bitcoin, go ahead. But if you really want a sensible conversation, give me a ring and persuade me otherwise, you know. >> Well, I I want to pull in the the I just want to pull in the crypto thread for a moment because you brought it up. The whole genius act, stable coins. Um, what do you make of that whole situation? There's been some talk that this is a way for the government to somehow debase their own debt obligations and rugpull everybody. How are you viewing this whole push towards stable coins, particularly coming from, you know, the US government at this point? >> Well, h how how could be careful what words I use. How can a stable coin be stable when it's linked one to one with a dollar? like when the dollar is losing so much purchasing power against the precious metals. Now, if a stable coin was linked to the price of gold, that's a little a fair bit more stability, but it's not. It's against the dollar. So, it's it's just garbage. And and if you look at the players in the crypto world, I mean, the number fifth stable coin now is USD1. Well, everybody watching, look up who owns USD1. Look up the track record of that family, their business success. We know where that's going to end. So, so yeah, it's a complete distraction. Um, good luck to the people who've made made out like a bandit. Um, but I would suggest to them cash it in. take the chips out of the casino casino and hope you don't get dragged around the back and beaten up and have your winnings stolen off you. It's like take them out of the casino, put them into something private because none of this crypto is private. No one has shown me how it is private. Every transaction, every millisecond is recorded, date stamped. Um, so there's no privacy. And then it's, oh well, I can put it in a cold wallet. So you want to lock it away. Well, you know, it's like you you might you might try to wake up your cold wallet and there is no no internet or the whole system has collapsed. I mean, I've been told by somebody who really does understand all of the plumbing on uh blockchain that Bitcoin, if enough miners stop mining, the whole thing crashes and it's unreoverable. So, it relies on a core amount of miners mining to keep proving the transactions and keeping the keeping the records. Now, I'm sure there'll be counter arguments to that, but is that a risk you want to take that you can wake up and you you know, it's not not a risk I'm going to take. I want to talk about platinum and palladium here because while all eyes are on gold and silver, platinum is actually outperforming both metals. Palladium was as well, but now silver is raised ahead of palladium. Platium up around 74% year to date. Platinum up a whopping 86% as we're speaking at this moment. Um, what are your thoughts on the run in both metals and when do you think people are going to wake up and start paying attention to them? >> Well, if you look at retail, they have done cuz there isn't any available. I mean, we've got I think we got eight platinum eagles. We got a few Plium bars. We got very little stock. So, I I think the retail trade has sort of said has woken up. Um, but that's a tiny amount of the market and unfortunately a lot of retail product was destroyed because it had sat not doing anything. It sat on the shelves at the wholesalers and their accounts department said melt it, make it go and they a lot a huge amount was destroyed last year. Um, and that inventory will probably never get replaced um because it's a harder metal to mint. It's more expensive to mint and their production runs are small, so the costs per per item are much higher. Um, it's a dysfunctional in the retail world. Um, now I wish Bob Coleman had called me because he bought for a fund that he runs $2 million of platinum when it was 800 bucks. >> Wow. >> But he didn't tell me, Ian, you might want to think about buying some platinum. I'm buying up all of the kilo bars that And he was buying kilo bars. Um, so he's doubled up nicely for his fund. Um, so are they going to keep on going? I I would just say keep keep an eye on that ratio. I think, you know, I I think I don't think it's um going to increase dramatically from where it is. So as gold goes up, platinum, platium will go up. The the downside on a retail purchase is the spread is really high. you know that the the the the premium on platinum can be more than 1 ounce of gold depending on the product you know and and the timing. So that's a big big chunk. Um but to buy and hold a bit yeah I I think it's going to keep tracking gold. It is going to do as well as gold does. Um but silver is still not even start it's hardly left a starting block. It's not really warmed up yet. that ratio is going to close to to 30 to1. So if you do the math, you know, and if it closes 40 to1, it's going to go twice as fast as gold. And it'll be doing that, you know, say gold goes up 30%, 40% in the next year, well, silver's going to go up 60 to 80%. Um, that I think that's baked in. Uh, cuz what other option is there for retail, you know? I mean, 4 what are we 4,000 to plus 100? We're nearly 4,400 for one of these if you can find one. >> Yeah. >> Or you can buy free tubes of the free tubes of the silver ones. So if you can get the silver, just psychologically retail going to get the silver. And a lot of our clients, you know, you know, they'll do $200 orders, $500 orders, $800,000. A lot are not doing $4,000 orders. So to go for fractional gold where you're paying, you know, 30% premium that that doesn't really make sense. You're better off buying silver with a lower percentage premium and then converting it into gold in the future when you've got enough silver to convert into an ounce. You know, because the argument is often given, yes, it makes sense buying fractional gold at a high premium because by the time you got your ounce, the gold has moved up, you know, but it makes more sense to me. Use silver as a vehicle to accumulate gold. >> Yeah, that's a great strategy actually. Um, one metal I want to discuss that is not often discussed, but I know that you're involved in is reinium. Um, we've had a lot of conversations about it off the record. You also talked about it a little bit last time. I had you on the show, but I want to revisit that because not a lot of people are paying attention. Walk us through the investment thesis and why you think Reinium has a promising future. >> Yeah, let's just run through the core fundamentals. The supply is pretty well fixed. So, it's a byproduct of a byproduct because it's found at such low concentrations, it makes rare earth look really, really common, which they are compared to reinium. So, rare earths are produced in the millions of tons. Reinium 50 tons a year as a byproduct from Lebanon from some copper deposits. Um yields are falling in certain areas and we're reliant for nearly half of the world's uranium production from Chile. Um by the way Chile is prone to earthquakes. So if we did get an earthquake that knocked out their production, we lose half of the world's erium production. So we got the 50 tons a year from primary extraction as a byproduct of a byproduct. Compare that to silver. That's 1500 by weight. 1500. At the moment it is trading for Let's just see what the price of silver is in kilos. A kilo of silver is $1,737 for a kilo. A kilo of reinium in centered pellet form. Pure 49 minimum purity is 3,600. So, it's only just a little bit over twice the price of silver, yet it's 1500th of the production. And there are no meaningful stock piles. And we've just had that proved. The US government has accidentally proved that there not are no meaningful stock bars. They issued this. I don't think I'll get into trouble, but don't tell the government. They've issued this out. This is the DLA Defense Logistics Agency Strategic Metals Directorate is seeking information for the potential acquisition of 40 metric tons of Reium metal for addition into the national defense stockpile. So our amazingly intelligent, smart, cunning US government has shouted out, uh, we need 40 tons help. If that wasn't bad enough, then they sent a letter out saying, "Oh, by the way, dear Reinium people, please do it in a way that doesn't make the price of Reinium go up." Well, the first letter made Reinium got 400 bucks a kilo. Then they send out a letter, oh, we we want uh 25 tons of aluminium perinate. So that's about equivalent of another 18 tons of reinium. So now the US government is trying to source nearly 60 tons in a market where there is no slack and there is no stock buzz. is going to take at least five years. Now we know the US government has under bid the whole reinium market for five years. They will buy everything they can for five years. Um uses so this is why the US government is trying to secure reinium. Um every jet engine turbine blade has reinium in civilian airplanes 1.5% reinium in the alloy military up to 6% in the turbine blades. So about 60 70% maybe a bit higher of the world's arenium goes into just that use into civilian and military aviation. It's also used in numerous high heat applications because only tungsten has a higher melting point. But unlike tungsten you can crush reanium and you can stretch it and it keeps its shape. It doesn't break. So that enables the turbines to run hot because of its high melting point. And it also enables the metal to not flow, stretch, crack or or fail, which is pretty crucial in a turbine running at goodness knows how many thousands of revolutions a minute. Those blades cannot fail. Um so for 40 years we've been using in turbine blades. We cannot find a substitute. We've reduced the amount down to 1.5%. But the aviation is hooked. There is no substitute for reinium alloys in aviation. Then you have a key use in petroleum refining. So when you refine gasoline, you use arenium catalyst to purify to boost the octane rating to make the higher grades of gasoline. That takes 20 around 20% of the world's reinium. And have a look how many refineries have been blown up in Russia recently. in Russia, in Ukraine, in Israel, in Iran, there's a whole lot of refineries. That reinium that was in there is gone. That's never going to get recycled. And even in that loop, every time you recycle it, you lose 10%. So, it gets consumed. Um, and then there's other electrical uses, medical uses coming online. Um, it is an incredible metal only discovered 100 years ago. Uh, it's 75 on the periodic table. So it sits between tungsten and the precious metals. It is absolutely fascinating metal. It's denser than gold. As I said, only tungsten has a higher melting point. Incredible hardwearing metal. We're discovering more and more uses. So the case as an investment is the supply is constrained. Uh demand is rising and all of the uses are high value uses, very high value uses. Uh, one of its uses it's used so you can use less of this. So platinum is I think 54 $55,000 a kilo. So you can mix reinium in with platinum and it will still have the same characteristics for certain uses that as far as I've researched is the lowest value use of reinium. So you can use less platinum. So the ceiling on reinium is the in my view is platinum is the price of platinum whereas it approaches that but what would happen then is well we we'd use less reinium platinum alloy we'd use more platinum that would drive the price of platinum up so therefore the gap would open and we'd start using more reinium so the lowest value use will go up in my opinion and again as we talked earlier I think the platinum platinum is going to track gold as gold rises because of its monitor aspects as well. So, the setup is uh I would say it's the best setup I've seen in anything ever. That may sound like an exaggeration, but the beauty is you can take physical possession off-grid, no no shenanigans, you know, no force majour, you know, on a market which I think we will see on silver and gold. So as a it is a diversification obviously still in the physical tangible metal world but it's its future I think is incredible with that tiny tiny 50 tons raw production per year plus plus recycling maybe 80 80 tons a year it is tiny and if you do the math you multiply 80 * 4 it's a $300 million market it is tiny and we cannot build a civilian airplane a military airplane. We can't build gas turbines. We can't build satellites, space vehicles, high-end electrical equipment. Reium oxides have been using in semiconductors. It's an incredible properties as an oxide. Uh the medical uses, it's making the most superior medical uh metals. Reinium 47% reinium, 53% malebinum alloy. It will not break. It will not wear out. And it is less reactive in the human body than a titanium equivalent. And because of its strength characteristics, it can be a lot smaller. So the pin, rod, plate, screw can be smaller, meaning less invasive surgery um and a higher success rate for the surgery. Just that use alone could demand half of the world's reinium per year. So I just love all of the high value usage which keep on growing. the supply cannot grow and now investors are taking some out of the market and we're going to wait till till we get a substantial increase before we consider selling some back into the market. So at the moment are you selling physical reinium or you're you're waiting you are okay you're one of the few bullion dealers that actually is selling it right. >> So we sell it by the kilo half kilo and quarter kilo. We we do no price difference for the for the for the size. Um we want to make it available to people on the lower budget. So for as little as uh $900 you can get a quarter kilo arenium. And when you compare that it's just over twice the price of silver. Yeah. 500 times less production and no meaningful above ground stock piles because I talking to industry insiders when they got this letter some just laughed and said they're not even going to reply to it and and the best case is it will take 5 years for the US government to source what what they're looking for and that is just brilliant underpinning the investment market a bid by the government the greatest producer of funny money ever in the So it whatever it costs the US government is irrelevant to the US government because they steal those dollars from us either through taxation or debasement. So there there's no downside for the US government. They'll pay whatever it takes to get their 60 tons. And they're under pressure from the military-industrial complex to do that. Obviously, you know, because we were warned in history, beware of the military-industrial complex. They own the US, you know. Well, so ARC has Reinium for sale and then outside of that for a stacker who's looking to enter the market. Now, what are some of the offerings from ARC that you think would be the best bang for your buck for stackers? >> Daytoday we have silver at spot. So, we will try and find 10 oz bars, 1 oz rounds, kilo bars, 100 oz bars. what we get gets brought in on the secondary market or what we purchase from other dealers who are swamped with stock, we will pass it on at a a nominal personal premium just to enable people to start stacking. So at least they're going to come in ahead by getting at spot or with 90% constitutional. So the pre65 dimes, quarters, and halves um we're about 70 cents back of spot. So, you can actually buy silver that way for less than the spot price. >> Fantastic. Well, I'm going to go ahead and put the number on screen where you can reach out to Ian as well as the email address. Uh, as I've mentioned many times on this show, I have had nothing but positive feedback from people who have done business with Arc, Silver, Gold, Osmium. I always get comments about it. People say they uh called you up and you were so accommodative in terms of helping people get the best value for their money. So, I highly recommend people reach out to you and hey, maybe pick up some Reinium. That that sounds like a very interesting story to me. Uh, Ian, thank you so much once again for coming on the show and looking forward to our next conversation. >> Thank you, Jesse, and thank you for for all your hard work. >> Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up tod date with the latest episodes.
Physical SILVER is 'Going EXTINCT' – Prices Headed 'Vertical': Ian Everard
Summary
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we dive into commodities markets, sound money principles and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day and on this episode I'm thrilled to welcome Ian Everard to the program the owner of Arc Silver Gold osmium and an enthusiast and analyst in the precious metal space. Ian believes we are entering a mass extinction event for physical silver as shortages rock the market and the metal starts to become unobtanium. A dynamic that could cause a massive price spike beyond what most are expecting. Will there come a time when it's too late to pile in as the retail crowd desperately chases silver and how will that affect the market dynamics? We also dive into gold's incredible rise and what it means for the global economy and monetary system. Why an obscure metal called reinium is about to go into a face melting rally and so much more. So strap yourselves in for my conversation with Ian Everard. Ian Everard, great to have you back on Commodity Culture. Last time I had you on the show, you questioned whether the gold bull run was a distraction and you speculated that silver was actually the metal that people should be paying attention to. And that has certainly played out with silver up around 82% year to date compared to around 60% for gold. A gap that has really started to grow recently, although both metals continue to rip to new all-time highs. Let's hone in on silver first, though. What are your thoughts on silver's dramatic rise? I think we're getting close to $54 as of the time of this recording. And do you think we'll see continued outperformance of silver over gold from here? >> I I'm hoping we'll get a pause and the ratio will stabilize around 80 to1 just to get people used to that. Um whether we get the luxury of a pause. I mean, yes, as we speak, we're we're 10 cents off $54 on silver and the and the ratio is pretty well around 80 to1. Um, but I think all the fundamentals are still driving silver even harder than gold. >> And in terms of silver shortages, this is another story that has been coming up, particularly when it comes to the LBMA. Uh, there's been reports that they have zero free float of silver inventory at the moment. And this is a big factor in terms of driving prices higher. I was speaking to Mario and Ekko and Eric Young the other day and they were saying that it's going to take something like 500 plane loads worth of silver to deliver to the LBMA before it can start operating again. I I wonder what your view is on that. Have you heard anything regarding silver shortages at the LBMA and any potential implications you think that could have on the silver market? >> Yeah, I mean there's two views. There's the sort of total line view I watch. Uh, I think it's called Gold Core. Really smart lady on that. And she thinks, "No, everything's fine. It'll all get smoothed out." I'm not so sure. I mean, there's information. You look at what the refiners are doing or not doing. Um, they're not taking sterling silver. They're not taking 90% constitutional silver. They're just concentrating on using 39 or 49 silver and turning into thousand bars or to mine concentrate and dory. I think they're under some pressure or great pressure to keep cranking out the thousand ounce bars to try and keep filling the um exchange for physical um requirement. And that seems to be every time we get a big surge, there's a surge in people standing for physical instead of dollars. And it's a riskreward um choice. And I think the more people who've actually know I'll stand for physical, I'll take the physical now, it's worked out for them time and time again because then they, you know, the current price jumps up. Whereas I think are we still at 48 for the year end futures? It's it's a ridiculous difference between the the live reality and what you may be able to well you could pay for your silver in the future now, but whether you'll get it or not. So I think that is a fascinating figure. You said 50 plane loads of silver. >> 500 I believe is what is statistics that Eric Young. >> Yeah. I I mean you think two weeks ago the best calculations was the LBMA had 6 weeks left of free float that was presumed to be available. So obviously they're fudging the figures. I whatever silver there I think it's owned multiple times or it's been leased shipped out. the lease has sold it presuming they can make out like a bandit in AI or crypto with the dollars and then come back in and make a profit that way and they've got burnt whereas pretty well all other assets are falling and silver's going up. So the squeeze if anybody well we know people are doing that and have been doing that it's worked really well for them. It's they're really getting punished now because until they can actually get hold of the physical silver, they can't can't turn their exposure off. Um, we are seeing incredibly high prices for silver in Brenton. I track it being a Brit ex, you know, ex Brit stroke American. I don't know. I think I'm a bit of both. I mean, silver silver bratas. Yeah, >> these are $75 each. >> $75 in the >> UK. 7. Yeah, the equivalent of $75. Now, yes, you've got purchase tax factor into that, but that's a reality for a stacker on the ground if they want to buy a new Britannia 75 bucks whereas here they're 54 plus for they're 58 bucks here. Um, but people are still buying them and we've seen stories in Poland that uh dealers are offering $6 over spot for any sovereign coin just so they can get some stock. So, we've got just a little lag here, a little luxury, but already we're seeing um maybe we should title this um interview a mass >> event. >> I like it. Silver's mass extinction. I love that. Yeah, >> mass extinction event. The These are extinct. I cannot get any more of these. >> Really? >> Beautiful 100 oz 49 fine Royal Canadian mint bars. Gone. Um, Valkcam kilos gone. Extinct. >> Wow. >> Um, maples extinct. Out of stock, out of stock. Platinum Eagles extinct. Unavailable. Um, it goes on and on. Palladium any form of pladium there is zero available platinum extinct the only platinum I can get is 1/10enth ounce bratannias this is unusual because it's across the metals now um gold Canadian maples we could add gold extinction extinct can't get them like um if the public wake up and people have thinking of buying, choose to buy, give it a day or two, there's not going to be anything left. >> Well, that's what's being discussed by a lot of stackers. I believe Mike Maloney coined the term that silver will one day be unoptanium. I wonder if we're entering that era because, as you said, we've seen the videos online of a lineups down the block and I believe it's ABC Bullan in Australia. Um, Costco has entered the game. Walmart, some of these big box retailers started to sell physical gold and silver as well. And the public consciousness is starting to catch on. And if we know how most of that herd mentality works, it's a number goes up and that's when people start to dive in and pay attention because the FOMO starts to kick in and they say, "Oh my god, silver is $50, but what if it goes to 100 because look at what gold's doing." Um, do you anticipate a a point in time, you kind of alluded to it there, where the retail crowd wants to pile in and there's just nothing available. And what what would that do to prices ultimately? >> Uh, pre premiums premiums will just go go vertical. We'll be back to $16 premiums on eagles. I mean, again, there's one thing I didn't mention on that list of extinctions. 2025 silver eagles. That's my last tube extinct. >> Wow. Um so yeah, premiums are going to rise. They are rising. We've seen one to$2 premium um increases. Um so yeah, unfortunately the retail market is so small in dollar terms compared to the amount that people have got in their savings accounts, money markets, um even SLV, PSLV. We've got a lot of clients who do you know what? I'm getting out of dodge. I do not want my metal in a theoretical fund. And and I know the PSLV is supposed to be one of the best and you know that whole setup they they buy the silver before they issue more shares. They do it the right way. But where's it stored in the Royal Canadian Mint? Who owns the Royal Canadian Mint? Um probably >> I can show you a picture. I won't say the words. >> I think he owns the Royal Canadian Mint. >> So, counter party risk. We're seeing crazy stuff worldwide now. You know, we've got wars breaking out. The US, we are creating wars. It looks like we we want to re regime change in Venezuela. It looks like we're aiding Tibetan Pakistan to evade invade Afghanistan. It's just on and on and on. So, we've got all these border conflicts. Um, we could wake up tomorrow and was it Maria Shinbal, the Mexican president? >> She could say, "Do you know what? We're not Silver's going up so fast. I think we'll just keep it for a bit and we'll see where it lands before we start selling it again." I mean, if they did that, silver would be three four $500 next week. >> Very fascinating times for the metal. I wonder what your thoughts are here on the industrial component because that's obviously one of the things that makes silver unique. Do you think the main driver of this current run it part of it could be the industrial side because of how vital it is for for so many industrial purposes, every sort of electronics, solar panels, we know the whole story. >> Absolutely spot on. Um, you look at China's plan for solar, the way they're ramping up solar, they're going to be uh nearly reaching requirement of 400 million ounces of silver a year. It's like and when China decides it's going to do something from the CCP, you know, from Z down, it tends to get done or the people that say no, you can't do it die, you know. So, they have every motivation to make it happen. what that would what that is causing the price of silver to do is is you know I is we we've got that difference in the Shanghai I I don't know if it's correct um I'm sure people can check it if you go to the Shanghai gold exchange we've got a great difference against the Chinese spot for silver than the US spot that arbitrage is going to get filled you know I mean traditionally wholesalers can work on a 10 or 15 cents margin per ounce Um, if you can make four, five, $6 by getting the silver to China, people are going to find a way. So, I I think China is sucking up huge huge amounts of silver. So, you know, and then you add the military-industrial complex in the US, the amount of silver, no real transparent figures um on what the military is using. But any high-tech military equipment will have silver wires, it'll have silver heat sinks, it'll have silver alloys. Even the superructure of the airframes um could well be uh silver aluminum alloy. Uh just on and on. And there's talk even of silver iron um jet engines or propulsion systems. So I I don't think the industrial demand eases up now even as we enter a global recession. Um and then there's the pretty quick well pretty quick um a year maybe a year into a recession zinc copper and lead mining will be reduced to some extent. That's where 70 80% of the silver comes from is a byproduct. So you you you've got a a perfect storm there in the supply and demand uses and and a lot of these industrial uses are high value uses. So they're not that sensitive to the price. So so in a normal dynamics as a cost of something goes up um the demand drops so the you know the supply available supply increases so the price corrects. I I don't think we're going to see that in silver now. And then you add in people waking up. You know, we got a lot of firsttime buyers who've been known the lie of the dollar, but it's been working really well for them for a long for decades. Now, some of them are thinking, you know what, I need to put a million or two into something real. It really doesn't take many of those across the industry and silver's gone. >> Yeah. Now, I think a question a lot of stackers out there have or people who are new uh to gold and silver and have realized, okay, the fiat currency system isn't working. Clearly, this is a long-term trend. I want to get my hands on some physical silver, but obviously a lot of people have an aversion to buying something that's ripping to new all-time highs. Do you think this is a time to proceed with caution or is the greater fear to be sitting on the sidelines hoping for a dip only to see silver skyrocket out of reach? >> Uh I think and and on previous history when we've had pretty rapid moves if we do get a pull back the increase in premiums will wipe that out. So you'll still pay as much per ounce. You know there's going to be distortions to that as secondary market comes on. I know some coin shops I got contacts with some coin shops in Utah. I know they've been swamped with people selling product. Um so temporarily um some coin shops will be selling at spot or below spot just to to keep their cash flow. Um most banks are not interested in lending to the bullion industry. Um why I don't know. Well, I do know but I'm not going to say don't want to upset my bank. So yeah, scary alltime high. Yeah. No, I I had this when we broke to the mid-30s last year. Uh I remember one day I placed an order at $36 something spot. That day I was the only customer of one of the largest wholesalers in the US that bought silver. Everyone else was holding back. No, this is going to pull back. Why? Why buy it and hedge and do all of that? I'll wait. And and it it didn't pull back. So yeah, fear of missing out, not a good reason. Because if you got if it's a FOMO, it means you're over over emotional about the decision, it's going to be a short-term decision. And then if it does pull back a little bit, you think you're going to are going to dump this and move on to the next shiny thing. And so so that's not for you. >> Yeah, I completely agree with that. I think people have to ask themselves the question, are you buying physical gold and silver to remove your wealth from the financial system to take it out of counterparty risk to use it as a store of value, a hedge against all all of the things that traditional stackers, you have to understand the asset class before you pile into it. Right. >> Exactly. To to do it on a I mean, although you could have done really well on a momentum trade, if you got a good deal with a small spread, you you could have been making 10% a week, you know. Um and and and another one one final thing is it's the privacy. >> Yes. >> You know depending on the size of your purchase and depending who you purchase it from and how you purchase it, it's a can be a private transaction that is not declarable. That could be the most valuable aspect of owning precious metals. I cannot see how the US can go forward without more financial repression and more taxation. Now the lie might be, oh yes, corporation tax is low and the billionaires are paying less tax. Yes, that's true. But what about the rest of us? We will be paying more tax one way or the other. Um silver in a lot of states now is voluntary legal tender. Um how that plays out into sales tax. I don't know. I'm having discussion here where we live in rural Idaho. We get our tax dollars a sack sucked up and go to Boise four and a half hours away where we never see them again. Uh well, what would happen if we introduced a local currency physical metal? What would that attack? How how do you charge sales tax on that? Do you clip a little bit off the coin? It's like so we may be able to develop legal ways of using silver in a local community that are sales tax exempt, federal tax exempt and private. Um I I think a lot of people, smart people will be pushing forward with that. Um I mean obviously there's already the informal economy. Um I am aware of transactions happening um that are fully private. When it comes to the gold market now, we're seeing gold look like it's going to potentially hit $5,000. Um I I think that's a very realistic price target at this point. The interesting thing is with the speed that gold is rising, I've spoken to a lot of guests on this show who have said, "Yeah, I'd love gold to go up, but it's a scary world that we'll be living in when gold gets to the previous number was 5,000. Only a year ago, a lot of people were saying that. Um I think it's going to hit that." >> Yeah. What what is gold's rapid rise telling us about the global economy, our monetary system, and what are the risks here? Is is is the risk that we could see a collapse of fiat currencies worldwide? Because obviously that's the, you know, the endgame that some stackers talk about, could we be facing that in in the near-term future? >> I think we're seeing it real time. I think we're actually seeing the accounting for the currency debasement. I mean the the upto-date figures a few weeks ago was worldwide we now have 80 80 times more currency than we had in 1980. So if you take the lowest price of gold in 1980 and multiply it by 80 that's the sort of minimum we're going to go to. Um you know what was I don't know what was the lowest price. It was in quite a few hundred dollars. So that is what precious metals have done throughout history. They give a thorough accounting absolute thorough precise accounting for currency debasement. So we are in the midst of a fiat currency collapse. >> That's a scary proposition. Now on the other side of that, how do you expect things to play out? That's a tough question. I know because nobody can really foresee the future. How will governments react? You know, I think we're already seeing some of that in terms of governments trying to clamp down, gain more control over citizens, start wars abroad to distract people. You know, I think the Venezuela story has a lot to do with oil in an effort to perhaps prevent runaway inflation in energy, which is a major input into the global economy and people's everyday lives. Um, how how do you think that would play out and and how do you expect governments to react? >> I think it is playing out. I mean, you've got mass surveillance in the US, completely illegal, and to a certain extent, it's even been boasted about. There was a recent event, I won't say which event, people can do a bit of research or give me a call, I'll tell them what the event was, where somebody boasted that 270,000 cell phones were tracked. So, the whole area where these people was geo fenced. Now, as far as I'm aware, there's only one country in the world that got the technology to do that, and it's not the US. So, a foreign country geoence and track 270,000 cell phones at a recent event without their permission, without their consent. Now, we have a constitution here. Now, it might not expressly say about cell phones because obviously they weren't a thing when the constitution was written, but there's certain things about privacy, freedom of movement, uh not to be stopped, not to have your goods even looked at, let alone, you know. So we we're we're in the midst of it and and what I mean anybody's got half a brain. What do you think the Doge team was actually doing? They were collecting all of the data from all of the agencies. It was nothing about efficiency. It was getting full access to the full computer records. Where did they take them? Palunteer. Who's Palanteer? They are the private quai private government entity that manages all of the US government data now and has access to all US government data. Uh if that doesn't make you concerned, go back to sleep. It's like and if we think you can get another passport and fly to another country and void of all of this. No, this is a worldwide thing that is happening. We are heading towards one world government, one world currency, one world army, one world police force, one world illegal system. Um there will be nowhere to run. So all we can do and I say all it's a huge thing is form our own parallel survival system which for me is precious metals, firewood, food, energy, you know that's that's the best we can do. Make make ourselves as resilient as possible because this is an onslaught. It does not stop. And interestingly, Peter Teal, co-founder of Palunteer, has given multiple presentations on the Antichrist. This is very bizarre. He has this kind of obsession with the Antichrist. And a lot of people are pointing out you're kind of you're a very interesting representation of what could be the Antichrist. You're the one trying to warn us. It's almost like, you know, the greatest trick the devil pulled was convincing us he didn't exist. It feels like a perhaps a little bit of that is coming. Guys, careful of the Antichrist. It's totally not me, guys. It's just But be careful. He's coming. You know, it's like, wow. Very, very fascinating stuff. >> Recently, and again, talking about distractions. Um, I think Bitcoin is being a distraction. >> Okay, tell us about that. >> Um, I plotted I plotted this out this morning. I don't know how well this will show up. So, that is Bitcoin gold ratio. >> Yeah. So we peaked we peaked in 2021 um towards just the end of 21. That was the highest ratio of how much gold you needed to get one bitcoin. I'm predicting now bitcoin will never recover against gold. It will never get up to that 37 to1 ratio again. Gold will keep going up faster. Now you're going to get the volatility in Bitcoin and you'll get the hysteria. I mean, how many headlines have we seen? Bitcoin reaches alltime high, but no one checked against what? Like against gold. It was four years ago. It's yesterday's thing. And when people realize that, they're not going to jump into it because the momentum is gone. We're not going to see that. I mean, it rose, you see, from 5.9 all the way up to 37. Uh, we're not going to see that again. Uh, and I may get a lot of I mean, if you're going to make a mean comment because you love Bitcoin, go ahead. But if you really want a sensible conversation, give me a ring and persuade me otherwise, you know. >> Well, I I want to pull in the the I just want to pull in the crypto thread for a moment because you brought it up. The whole genius act, stable coins. Um, what do you make of that whole situation? There's been some talk that this is a way for the government to somehow debase their own debt obligations and rugpull everybody. How are you viewing this whole push towards stable coins, particularly coming from, you know, the US government at this point? >> Well, h how how could be careful what words I use. How can a stable coin be stable when it's linked one to one with a dollar? like when the dollar is losing so much purchasing power against the precious metals. Now, if a stable coin was linked to the price of gold, that's a little a fair bit more stability, but it's not. It's against the dollar. So, it's it's just garbage. And and if you look at the players in the crypto world, I mean, the number fifth stable coin now is USD1. Well, everybody watching, look up who owns USD1. Look up the track record of that family, their business success. We know where that's going to end. So, so yeah, it's a complete distraction. Um, good luck to the people who've made made out like a bandit. Um, but I would suggest to them cash it in. take the chips out of the casino casino and hope you don't get dragged around the back and beaten up and have your winnings stolen off you. It's like take them out of the casino, put them into something private because none of this crypto is private. No one has shown me how it is private. Every transaction, every millisecond is recorded, date stamped. Um, so there's no privacy. And then it's, oh well, I can put it in a cold wallet. So you want to lock it away. Well, you know, it's like you you might you might try to wake up your cold wallet and there is no no internet or the whole system has collapsed. I mean, I've been told by somebody who really does understand all of the plumbing on uh blockchain that Bitcoin, if enough miners stop mining, the whole thing crashes and it's unreoverable. So, it relies on a core amount of miners mining to keep proving the transactions and keeping the keeping the records. Now, I'm sure there'll be counter arguments to that, but is that a risk you want to take that you can wake up and you you know, it's not not a risk I'm going to take. I want to talk about platinum and palladium here because while all eyes are on gold and silver, platinum is actually outperforming both metals. Palladium was as well, but now silver is raised ahead of palladium. Platium up around 74% year to date. Platinum up a whopping 86% as we're speaking at this moment. Um, what are your thoughts on the run in both metals and when do you think people are going to wake up and start paying attention to them? >> Well, if you look at retail, they have done cuz there isn't any available. I mean, we've got I think we got eight platinum eagles. We got a few Plium bars. We got very little stock. So, I I think the retail trade has sort of said has woken up. Um, but that's a tiny amount of the market and unfortunately a lot of retail product was destroyed because it had sat not doing anything. It sat on the shelves at the wholesalers and their accounts department said melt it, make it go and they a lot a huge amount was destroyed last year. Um, and that inventory will probably never get replaced um because it's a harder metal to mint. It's more expensive to mint and their production runs are small, so the costs per per item are much higher. Um, it's a dysfunctional in the retail world. Um, now I wish Bob Coleman had called me because he bought for a fund that he runs $2 million of platinum when it was 800 bucks. >> Wow. >> But he didn't tell me, Ian, you might want to think about buying some platinum. I'm buying up all of the kilo bars that And he was buying kilo bars. Um, so he's doubled up nicely for his fund. Um, so are they going to keep on going? I I would just say keep keep an eye on that ratio. I think, you know, I I think I don't think it's um going to increase dramatically from where it is. So as gold goes up, platinum, platium will go up. The the downside on a retail purchase is the spread is really high. you know that the the the the premium on platinum can be more than 1 ounce of gold depending on the product you know and and the timing. So that's a big big chunk. Um but to buy and hold a bit yeah I I think it's going to keep tracking gold. It is going to do as well as gold does. Um but silver is still not even start it's hardly left a starting block. It's not really warmed up yet. that ratio is going to close to to 30 to1. So if you do the math, you know, and if it closes 40 to1, it's going to go twice as fast as gold. And it'll be doing that, you know, say gold goes up 30%, 40% in the next year, well, silver's going to go up 60 to 80%. Um, that I think that's baked in. Uh, cuz what other option is there for retail, you know? I mean, 4 what are we 4,000 to plus 100? We're nearly 4,400 for one of these if you can find one. >> Yeah. >> Or you can buy free tubes of the free tubes of the silver ones. So if you can get the silver, just psychologically retail going to get the silver. And a lot of our clients, you know, you know, they'll do $200 orders, $500 orders, $800,000. A lot are not doing $4,000 orders. So to go for fractional gold where you're paying, you know, 30% premium that that doesn't really make sense. You're better off buying silver with a lower percentage premium and then converting it into gold in the future when you've got enough silver to convert into an ounce. You know, because the argument is often given, yes, it makes sense buying fractional gold at a high premium because by the time you got your ounce, the gold has moved up, you know, but it makes more sense to me. Use silver as a vehicle to accumulate gold. >> Yeah, that's a great strategy actually. Um, one metal I want to discuss that is not often discussed, but I know that you're involved in is reinium. Um, we've had a lot of conversations about it off the record. You also talked about it a little bit last time. I had you on the show, but I want to revisit that because not a lot of people are paying attention. Walk us through the investment thesis and why you think Reinium has a promising future. >> Yeah, let's just run through the core fundamentals. The supply is pretty well fixed. So, it's a byproduct of a byproduct because it's found at such low concentrations, it makes rare earth look really, really common, which they are compared to reinium. So, rare earths are produced in the millions of tons. Reinium 50 tons a year as a byproduct from Lebanon from some copper deposits. Um yields are falling in certain areas and we're reliant for nearly half of the world's uranium production from Chile. Um by the way Chile is prone to earthquakes. So if we did get an earthquake that knocked out their production, we lose half of the world's erium production. So we got the 50 tons a year from primary extraction as a byproduct of a byproduct. Compare that to silver. That's 1500 by weight. 1500. At the moment it is trading for Let's just see what the price of silver is in kilos. A kilo of silver is $1,737 for a kilo. A kilo of reinium in centered pellet form. Pure 49 minimum purity is 3,600. So, it's only just a little bit over twice the price of silver, yet it's 1500th of the production. And there are no meaningful stock piles. And we've just had that proved. The US government has accidentally proved that there not are no meaningful stock bars. They issued this. I don't think I'll get into trouble, but don't tell the government. They've issued this out. This is the DLA Defense Logistics Agency Strategic Metals Directorate is seeking information for the potential acquisition of 40 metric tons of Reium metal for addition into the national defense stockpile. So our amazingly intelligent, smart, cunning US government has shouted out, uh, we need 40 tons help. If that wasn't bad enough, then they sent a letter out saying, "Oh, by the way, dear Reinium people, please do it in a way that doesn't make the price of Reinium go up." Well, the first letter made Reinium got 400 bucks a kilo. Then they send out a letter, oh, we we want uh 25 tons of aluminium perinate. So that's about equivalent of another 18 tons of reinium. So now the US government is trying to source nearly 60 tons in a market where there is no slack and there is no stock buzz. is going to take at least five years. Now we know the US government has under bid the whole reinium market for five years. They will buy everything they can for five years. Um uses so this is why the US government is trying to secure reinium. Um every jet engine turbine blade has reinium in civilian airplanes 1.5% reinium in the alloy military up to 6% in the turbine blades. So about 60 70% maybe a bit higher of the world's arenium goes into just that use into civilian and military aviation. It's also used in numerous high heat applications because only tungsten has a higher melting point. But unlike tungsten you can crush reanium and you can stretch it and it keeps its shape. It doesn't break. So that enables the turbines to run hot because of its high melting point. And it also enables the metal to not flow, stretch, crack or or fail, which is pretty crucial in a turbine running at goodness knows how many thousands of revolutions a minute. Those blades cannot fail. Um so for 40 years we've been using in turbine blades. We cannot find a substitute. We've reduced the amount down to 1.5%. But the aviation is hooked. There is no substitute for reinium alloys in aviation. Then you have a key use in petroleum refining. So when you refine gasoline, you use arenium catalyst to purify to boost the octane rating to make the higher grades of gasoline. That takes 20 around 20% of the world's reinium. And have a look how many refineries have been blown up in Russia recently. in Russia, in Ukraine, in Israel, in Iran, there's a whole lot of refineries. That reinium that was in there is gone. That's never going to get recycled. And even in that loop, every time you recycle it, you lose 10%. So, it gets consumed. Um, and then there's other electrical uses, medical uses coming online. Um, it is an incredible metal only discovered 100 years ago. Uh, it's 75 on the periodic table. So it sits between tungsten and the precious metals. It is absolutely fascinating metal. It's denser than gold. As I said, only tungsten has a higher melting point. Incredible hardwearing metal. We're discovering more and more uses. So the case as an investment is the supply is constrained. Uh demand is rising and all of the uses are high value uses, very high value uses. Uh, one of its uses it's used so you can use less of this. So platinum is I think 54 $55,000 a kilo. So you can mix reinium in with platinum and it will still have the same characteristics for certain uses that as far as I've researched is the lowest value use of reinium. So you can use less platinum. So the ceiling on reinium is the in my view is platinum is the price of platinum whereas it approaches that but what would happen then is well we we'd use less reinium platinum alloy we'd use more platinum that would drive the price of platinum up so therefore the gap would open and we'd start using more reinium so the lowest value use will go up in my opinion and again as we talked earlier I think the platinum platinum is going to track gold as gold rises because of its monitor aspects as well. So, the setup is uh I would say it's the best setup I've seen in anything ever. That may sound like an exaggeration, but the beauty is you can take physical possession off-grid, no no shenanigans, you know, no force majour, you know, on a market which I think we will see on silver and gold. So as a it is a diversification obviously still in the physical tangible metal world but it's its future I think is incredible with that tiny tiny 50 tons raw production per year plus plus recycling maybe 80 80 tons a year it is tiny and if you do the math you multiply 80 * 4 it's a $300 million market it is tiny and we cannot build a civilian airplane a military airplane. We can't build gas turbines. We can't build satellites, space vehicles, high-end electrical equipment. Reium oxides have been using in semiconductors. It's an incredible properties as an oxide. Uh the medical uses, it's making the most superior medical uh metals. Reinium 47% reinium, 53% malebinum alloy. It will not break. It will not wear out. And it is less reactive in the human body than a titanium equivalent. And because of its strength characteristics, it can be a lot smaller. So the pin, rod, plate, screw can be smaller, meaning less invasive surgery um and a higher success rate for the surgery. Just that use alone could demand half of the world's reinium per year. So I just love all of the high value usage which keep on growing. the supply cannot grow and now investors are taking some out of the market and we're going to wait till till we get a substantial increase before we consider selling some back into the market. So at the moment are you selling physical reinium or you're you're waiting you are okay you're one of the few bullion dealers that actually is selling it right. >> So we sell it by the kilo half kilo and quarter kilo. We we do no price difference for the for the for the size. Um we want to make it available to people on the lower budget. So for as little as uh $900 you can get a quarter kilo arenium. And when you compare that it's just over twice the price of silver. Yeah. 500 times less production and no meaningful above ground stock piles because I talking to industry insiders when they got this letter some just laughed and said they're not even going to reply to it and and the best case is it will take 5 years for the US government to source what what they're looking for and that is just brilliant underpinning the investment market a bid by the government the greatest producer of funny money ever in the So it whatever it costs the US government is irrelevant to the US government because they steal those dollars from us either through taxation or debasement. So there there's no downside for the US government. They'll pay whatever it takes to get their 60 tons. And they're under pressure from the military-industrial complex to do that. Obviously, you know, because we were warned in history, beware of the military-industrial complex. They own the US, you know. Well, so ARC has Reinium for sale and then outside of that for a stacker who's looking to enter the market. Now, what are some of the offerings from ARC that you think would be the best bang for your buck for stackers? >> Daytoday we have silver at spot. So, we will try and find 10 oz bars, 1 oz rounds, kilo bars, 100 oz bars. what we get gets brought in on the secondary market or what we purchase from other dealers who are swamped with stock, we will pass it on at a a nominal personal premium just to enable people to start stacking. So at least they're going to come in ahead by getting at spot or with 90% constitutional. So the pre65 dimes, quarters, and halves um we're about 70 cents back of spot. So, you can actually buy silver that way for less than the spot price. >> Fantastic. Well, I'm going to go ahead and put the number on screen where you can reach out to Ian as well as the email address. Uh, as I've mentioned many times on this show, I have had nothing but positive feedback from people who have done business with Arc, Silver, Gold, Osmium. I always get comments about it. People say they uh called you up and you were so accommodative in terms of helping people get the best value for their money. So, I highly recommend people reach out to you and hey, maybe pick up some Reinium. That that sounds like a very interesting story to me. Uh, Ian, thank you so much once again for coming on the show and looking forward to our next conversation. >> Thank you, Jesse, and thank you for for all your hard work. >> Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up tod date with the latest episodes.