Investment Theme: The podcast discusses the rapid evolution of event contracts in sports gambling, highlighting their potential to disrupt traditional online sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel.
Market Insights: The legalization of sports gambling and exclusive data rights have significantly increased the value of sports franchises and media deals, with major tech companies like Amazon entering the space.
Regulatory Landscape: The podcast delves into the regulatory challenges faced by event contract companies, with the CFTC and state regulators playing crucial roles in determining their legality.
Company Discussions: Companies like Koshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com are mentioned as key players in the event contract market, with partnerships aiming to expand their reach despite legal hurdles.
Economic Impact: The podcast highlights how gambling has fueled viewership and revenue for sports leagues, leading to substantial increases in franchise valuations and lucrative media rights deals.
Opportunities and Risks: The potential for event contracts to impact in-game live wagering and parlays presents both opportunities and challenges for traditional sportsbooks.
Key Takeaways: The convergence of sports, business, and entertainment is creating new investment opportunities, with media companies and tech giants competing for a share of the lucrative sports gambling market.
Transcript
In this episode of On the Tape, I am joined by Front Office Sports media and entertainment reporter Ryan Glass Beagle. With the NFL season kicking off, I thought it would be timely to have Ryan join the pod. Prior to joining Front Office Sports, Ryan wrote for Sports Illustrated and the New York Post, among other publications. With a combination of sports, business, entertainment, and culture, Ryan has a front row seat to watch and write about the advent of legalized sports gambling, the massive meteorites deals that have been announced over the last few years, and changes at the NCAA with NIL deals, and more. We get into the rapid evolution of event contracts brought about by the likes of Koshi and how they pose both a challenge and an opportunity to the state regulated incumbents like DraftKings and FanDuel. We talk about the impact of gambling and exclusive data rights have had on increasing both the value of sports franchises and these large media deals we keep seeing between leagues, networks, and streamers. We get into that and a whole lot more. And stick around until the end because I will be giving out my week one NFL picks at the end of the show. Today I am joined by Ryan Glasbagel, media and entertainment reporter at Front Office Sports. Ryan, welcome to On the Tape. >> Oh, thank you for having me. Really appreciate it. This is a big honor for me. Well, it's it's an honor to have you on our show. So, with week one of the NFL season upon us, I thought be great timing to have you on, but let's start with your background and why you made the move to join Front Office Sports, which I think was created in 2014, if I'm not mistaken. >> Yeah. So, it it's a pretty long journey, but basically, I'll give the cliff notes. I graduated in Wisconsin in 2009. I was a finance major, uh, as you know, um, and we're a big player in. there was not uh many finance jobs available in 2009 for recent graduates. Uh I wound up at an online furniture startup that was started by a Wisconsin grad. I was about there I was there for about a year and a half. Um and I left that job to start sports blogging. I started my own sports blog and I freelanced a couple of places. It took me about two years to catch on part-time at Sports Illustrated. And so even though I was only making about a third of a living wage there, I got the equivalent of like a master's in journalism for free working for this guy named Neil Janowitz, who's now the editorial director of Vulture, which is New York magazine's culture site. And so I was there for about a year. Then I landed at the Big Lead, which at the time was owned by USA Today. It was started by Jason McIntyre, who is Colin Cowardd's co-host at Fox Sports. um he really helped me learn the media business. It was a sports media focused blog and he opened up a lot of his rolodex for me and taught me about what's interesting and etc. I I land from there I landed at this site called Outkick which now is owned by Fox News but at the time was an independent site owned by Quay Travis. um I wasn't a great fit with some of the managers there and I left there um in early 2021. About 10 months later, I landed at the New York Post where I was for about three years and then um the group at Front Office Sports recruited me over um starting early this year. >> That's amazing. That's a lot in a short period of time. I mean, I find it interesting with a background in finance that things have come full circle now. We're going to get into that with all the meteorites deals and the value of these sports franchises and everything like that. So, you you also forgot to mention you live in Chicago with your wife and three daughters, I believe. I don't know if you mentioned that or not, but give them a give them a shout out. >> Three daughters. Um, they are one, four, and six. They're adorable. I love them. Um, and yeah, it's live. We live in Chicago. We're in the Bucktown Logan Square neighborhood um near Margie's Candies for anybody familiar with the city. >> Good stuff. And our other connection is that your father is a great um finance analyst obviously covering the insurance sector. Um yes, I believe. And so we had a connection way back when. So I've known him many years. So great family. All right. So let let's get into it here. you and I kind of connected a couple months ago uh when I had tweeted out about kind of these event contracts which have come on the scene here as it relates to sports gambling and how they could not only take market share but you know go into states where sports gambling is not allowed uh so far and today as we sit here we just saw a new announcement that underdog was partnering with crypto.com to provide event contracts in it sounds like states where they're currently not offering um currently their daily fantasy sports or or pick them games that they have. I guess they want to don't want to step on toes of the state regulators and so forth. But let's talk about that and kind of couch as we kick off the football season and what you see going on in that world. Yeah. So this started last year with the election where you know Poly Market was offering these election odds but it was offshore and you're dubiously not sure if it's legal or not. Khi, which is this startup exchange, comes out and says, "We're offering election odds. They won yearslong court battle to be able to offer them legally." And so they they were fighting against the CFC to be able to do that. They offered these election odds. And then around the Super Bowl, them and Crypto.com started like dipping their toes, basically offering you a chance to bet on the winner of the game. And so over the past several months, they've added things like futures contracts, like who's going to win a championship later or who's going to win a golf tournament. Then they added single game outcomes of who's going to win the game. And then um Koshi and by the way they've partnered with Robin Hood which means that it just gives them an access to millions of different people with financial accounts. Um they started offering point spreads overunders and they're going to be offering player props on who whether somebody's going to score a touchdown or not during this football season. And so obviously this has a chance to really disrupt the online sports book business. As you said, these online sports books are only in they're only legal in 39 states. Um Texas and California, if you're familiar with an electoral college map, have enormous populations. They do not have legal sports betting. It's a huge open frontier for these prediction markets if they're legal. And with that, just for people out there, I've talked about this before, but the CFTC at the national level regulates these quote event contracts and the online gambling companies are regulated at the state level. At the state level, you can have taxes anywhere from 15% up to 51% in New York. And so, you don't face those same issues with the CFTC. And so, we're seeing the spread. So really interesting is that FanDuel signed a deal recently with CME obviously right in your hometown there uh to do quote nonsports you know event but eventually I think this is going to happen. So we we've also seen that that that announcement and so I think we're going to keep seeing this over time. You have better obviously which is out there um right you know as well on the daily fantasy side among other names. So I think we're going to keep seeing this. Do you agree? Yeah, we are going to keep seeing it. And so, I mean, what what it's really going to come down to, Danny, is is the CFTC going to totally declare that these event contracts as they relate to these uh micro sports outcomes are allowed or they're not allowed. The KHI and Robin Hood and Crypto.com have been like issued cease and desist orders. They've been sued in a number of states. So far, they've gotten injunctions or little legal victories that they're still operating. What it really seems like it's going to come down to is either the Supreme Court or the CFTC is going to have to say this is allowed or this isn't allowed. And it's an interesting thing. So, right now, President Trump has nominated Brian Quinten to be head of the CFTC. Quintens is on the board at Kshi. So, you would think that if he gets um let through, then it would almost seem to be a slam dunk that what they're doing is going to be declared federally legal. But his nomination has gotten held up. There's been reports that the Winklvos twins don't want him there and so they've somehow been able to gum up this process and he hasn't been confirmed. So, we don't know what's going to happen with him or whoever replaces him if he isn't there. And then we've also got Don Jr. who is a strategic advisor to Koshi. And then last week it comes out that he his venture capital firm is investing in poly market which has now bought an exchange in America and seems poised to enter this market legally during this football season. And so we've got all of these different moving parts. And then you like as you said FanDuel with the CME now they're dipping their toes in the water. They don't want to do a cannonball because they can't defend these state regulators that they depend on in the 39 legal states. But if they get the word that these um prediction markets are kosher, then I think you're going to see them do a cannonball because why would they want to pay like these high taxes in places like New York and Illinois when they can just be subject to commodity taxation via the CFTC. >> All right, so let's back up even further than that. We're going to get to why Front Office Sports is such an incredible company. Right place, right time. literally combination of sports, business, entertainment culture. So 2018 Supreme Court struck down a 1992 federal law basically that effectively banned commercial sports betting in most states, right? So they struck it. So that opened the door for all of this to start happening. So you saw DraftKings, FanDuel who's owned by Flutter, who was already in Europe, you know, obviously come in and start um getting approval in in state jurisdictions. And then in 2021, which is a little bit of a separate issue, but I'll get to where I'm going in a minute, the NIL, the name it name, image, likeness stuff popped up. And as recently as this last year got even further uh further cemented in terms of the back pay that would be owed to college athletes all the way back to 2016. I mean, you now have college rosters, which I think Ohio State's $35 million. Texas is 30 to 40. I mean, we're literally becoming NFL franchises overnight. So this all goes back to one thing Ryan and I believe which is gambling. Gambling has increased viewership you know revenue data rights for deals. So give me your thoughts on that and how that has played a part. >> Yeah I mean it stands to reason that if you put money on a game then you're more likely to watch it. There's also been um adaptation to Neielson and how they count this stuff. So in until 2020, the only people that Neielson counted in their immediate um TV viewership numbers were people that were watching in their house. And then they started, look, I think advertisers and TV networks have always known that people gather to watch sports outside of their house, particularly football. But for the first time, Neielson started including these numbers in their immediate viewership. And so now they're counting people at bars, restaurants, their friends houses, hotels, gyms, etc. And you think like when you go out to eat, what's on the TV? It's almost invariably going to be ESPN or another sporting event. So having that stuff get counted in the immediate numbers was more gasoline fuel. But yes, to your point, the gambling, I mean, people who bet on games are more likely to watch it. That much is obvious. But it's not just the fact that it's increasing viewers. It opened up this whole huge massive advertising and marketing and sponsorship spend where you can't watch any sports or listen to any sports talk radio for hardly five or 10 minutes without seeing a reference to one of these online sports books like FanDuel or DraftKings. And so, um, yes, it at a time where it looked like sports might be in trouble because of cord cutting and people, you know, exiting the ESPN and the, um, bundle ecosystem. This gambling came along at the perfect time for the leagues and teams and their valuations. I mean, the average NFL team, correct me if I'm wrong, saw a 25% increase in valuation just from 2024 to 25 and is up over 100% since 2021. And a lot of that obviously result of data rights and also media deals that have been done. And I'm looking at the NFL schedule for just to give an example for this week. The Thursday night game obviously is on NBC. The Friday night game out of Brazil is on YouTube. The, you know, Sunday night game is obviously on NBC. And then ESPN has the money night. Just gives you an idea. And then Fox and CBS have all the other games. So talk about some of these meteorite deals we've seen between Amazon and the NFL. And it's not just the NFL, right? It's all sports. It's baseball. It's everything we've seen. Talk about that. And how much do you attribute that to again what I believe is your point is the eyes and ears that are a part of this game now that are just bringing in because of gambling. >> Yeah. I mean, and it it's competition with these tech companies. So you saw Amazon come in with the Thursday Night Football package. Netflix is going to have this double header and ESPN and the NFL did a deal where um ESPN is going to be taking operational control of NFL Network. The NFL will be taking a 10% stake in ESPN, presuming this stuff is all queered by the Justice Department. And in this deal, it opens up four more games that the NFL can sell in like a different segmented package. So, they're going to have another kind of bite at the apple and then they can opt out of their rights deals in um 2029. And the NFL also, by the way, has a stake in CBS now because the NFL owns a stake in Sky Dance, which took over CBS recently. So they um the the gambling has definitely helped all of this because it it's a additional flow of as we've said money and attention into these leagues. But I think also the the the stakeholders like the ESPN's, Fox, CBS's, NBC's of the world where the NFL is a huge part of their brand identity, they have to pay more and more and more and more to keep it as these tech companies are coming in and competing for the rights and these tech companies relative to the media companies effectively have unlimited money. When I look at the NCAA, which has been controversial for years, first of all, when they didn't pay their players, now that they're paying the players and monitoring gambling of players, which I know that you write about, they're saying two different things out of either side of their mouth, right? They're like, "All right, we don't love college athletes betting, but they can bet on pro sports, just not on college, right?" And so forth, or we don't appreciate these these player props. Meanwhile, they're selling the media rights to genius sports, right? Hundreds of millions of dollars a year. talk about that kind of hypocrisy that's going on, not just at the NCAA, and you write about all the stuff, I know. So, what do you find most interesting there? >> Yeah, I mean, it's it's clearly hypocritical and um you can call them a hypocrite and they'll they'll try and say, "Okay, well, we have these guidelines and we we don't they're not going to bet on the sports." But you know the the point shaving in college sports has been a issue for a very long time predating uh legal gambling. And so what somebody in defense of this would say is, "Well, now if there's point shaving, these sophisticated gambling networks like FanDuel, DraftKings, Hard Rock, MGM, Caesars, they're going to catch it cuz if somebody is just betting a lot of money on an obscure player prop, that's going to trip their due diligence systems." And so now they'll say that it's easier to catch these people in the act than it was when it was just, you know, a nationwide network of illegal bookmakers. Now, I think that there's something to that, but the fact that they're just flashing gambling advertisements in everybody's space and the players see the owners just getting wealthier and wealthier off the backs of it, it's going to, you know, open up um in their minds opportunities. And you know, we haven't seen this yet, knock on wood, but like a Tim Donahe type referee scandal in the legal sports betting era seems inevitable to happen because you look at like a how much the officials get paid, b how much of an impact they can have on games, especially player props. Like if there's somebody um with like an overunder assist total, they can just have that player foul out. So much of this stuff is subjective and so like they before they could just maybe impact the point spread or the overunder total. Now that they can impact player props, I think that it's only a matter of time until we see one of those again. >> Yeah, I'm I'm always wary of that and the way I talk to myself is all right, if I'm going to gamble anyway, I don't know who's going to fix what, so might as well take another side because but yes, there's no question that that that it's going on. And to your point, we only hear about people that get caught. And at the college level, 99% of those players will never be pros and they'll never make money on that level, right? So that's why there's more incentive potentially do it at that level. However, and you've written about this, I mean, we're dealing right now with a couple of Major League Baseball players which are under investigation. NBA, I mean, this is going on, you know, a lot. think it's just the access, you know, the best player in baseball's best friend, you know, you know, Otani's friend who some people argue maybe maybe Otani knew, but I I'm I'm not I'm not going to go. >> The bookmaker said it would be the bookmaker said he was interviewed this week and he or last week and he said that he suspects that Otani knew about this. So, he didn't say I know that he knew about it, but it was his suspicion. And yeah, I mean, look at the the player props that the Cleveland Guardians were accused or are accused of manipulating. You can bet whether a pitcher's first pitch is going to be a ball or a strike. That's something that is totally within their control. It's not like what it used to be with like these point spreads and it's a team game. Um, where like I mean, how much impact can one person who's not a quarterback have on any sporting event? Now, it's like literally something that they can directly control and there's huge incentives. But, as I said before, you know, if a million people are betting on a pitcher's first ball to be a ball and it's just a cartoonishly outside pitch, that's how they get caught. Now, I think it's probably a good thing that several of these athletes appear to have been caught red-handed because now the teams and the leagues can hold these educational seminars. Hey, look what happened. If you do this, you're going to get caught. Don't be stupid. But yes, it's also hypocritical because they're putting all of this gambling marketing in your face. They're telling you that you can get rich from it. What they're not telling you is that the sports books can just heavily limit anybody who wins. And so it's very much a tilted pinball machine. >> It is crazy. I've talked about this on this show um that you have draft kings of FanDuel kicking off what we call sharps, people that are actually winning and then incenting losers to keep gambling. That's a whole another story. And by the way, I should close the loop on these event contracts. And I just want again, you know, apologize to people who have heard me say this before. The most lucrative part of the business for FanDuel DraftKings are parlays and in-game live wagering. Well, these event contracts directly impact in-game live wagering. It remains to be seen what's going to happen on the parlay, >> you know, but Ryan what? Yeah, it it could come and it probably is going to come. It like it's like a drip drip drip and then it's just going to rain and so that'll be really interesting. So one of the things you guys do at front office which I think is really interesting which tells you where this has all kind of converged is you have stock tickers actually on the running across the you know the top of your website and so this is kind of a stock ccentric show and I'm not asking you to to or what earnings are going to be for any companies or give you give stock picks however I think it's really interesting how so many different media companies and I can run through them have are involved now maybe it's not the major part of their balance sheet or their business but they're getting there whether it's it's Disney or Warner Warner Brothers or Liberty Media or TKO Group or whatever it might be, Fubo. Like, are you seeing anything really interesting out there where you think there's an underappreciated company? Hate to put you on the spot, whether it's a streamer, whether it's a content deal, something you think that people are underappreciating in the sector. I told your partner um Porter Collins privately that like several months back that the market was underestimating what TKO was going to get in their UFC rights and they were underestimating boxing as a factor. That one came true unfortunately. I wish you had me on like four weeks. >> Well, first of all, I'll have my own discussion with Porter and why he's holding out on me since I am like this, you know, the sports guy. But anyway, please keep going. Yeah. the um let me think about that. You know the the Atlanta Braves treat trade at a discount to what they would transact at on the open market. I don't know exactly what their market cap is now. Maybe it's like three and a half billion and I think that when you include their like surrounding real estate it would trade at five billion. So it's like you could you're looking at around like a 50% discount of what the asset would transact at on the open market. But the question is you don't know when the duration of that 50% gets realized. So it's an interesting kind of question about whether you think that upside is worth it when you don't know what the duration is. >> Well, let's talk about Madison Square Garden because that's probably an easier one that everyone wants Dolan to just sell this, get rid of your teams, you know, because it feels like there's a lot of inherent value that has yet to really be um realized in that thing. You have any thoughts on MSG? Yeah. I mean, you're just you're dealing with one um eccentric and stubborn person. And then the other thing that you don't know is how many places in the world can you kind of copy and paste the sphere now that um look the hard part was getting all of it built once but now that they did it how many places can you build that type of arena that will draw you know 20,000 people four nights a week for the whole year and you can you you can send like the Eagles to play the sphere in Dubai or London or whatever. I don't know. It's a different It's a difficult question to know how many of those they can or will build. But yes, to your point, the Knicks and the Rangers within that portfolio, the stock trades at a severe discount if he would sell them, but they're under his control. And so it's like one person and you're trying to bet on what he's going to do and he's unpredictable. >> Yeah. And they obviously spun out the sphere, but you're right. Do they have anything like that up their sleeve? And then you look at kind of the Genius Sports, the Sport Radar, which obviously, you know, buys the rights to the data from these leagues themselves and then distributes it u to the online sports book and they're they're the provider. I'm I'm wondering if they're going to be able to have a seat at the table for some of these event contract companies, you know, as as things move forward here because Susahana, you know, to bring Wall Street into the is a market maker for a lot of these event contracts which are going out there. you wonder where the data is that they're scraping and what they're really using here for in terms of to to put overlays. >> Yeah, you you would think that the um the data companies will be very valuable to them and I I don't know whether they are contracting with them or not quite yet, but um that definitely would be like an opportunity because yeah, they've got um like SIG is doing um a lot of the market making for KHI and Crypto.com right now. >> A friend of mine just sent this to me today. It says, "Amazon AWS is hiring a senior betting and gaming advisory consultant to quote, design, implement, and optimize cloud-based solutions tailored to the unique needs of online sports betting, eye gaming, and casino gaming clients like FanDuel and DraftKings." That's an Amazon posting. And so, I find that really interesting considering we know they're hosting everything, but that they have the big deal with the NFL. Obviously, they bought the rights to it. Have you seen that yet? And what are your thoughts on that that I just read that to you? Um well I I'm glad you brought up i gaming because that's another area where um we're still in like the first or second inning and that might be less disruptable from the event contracts firms than traditional sports betting is because I don't know how Kshi or Poly market could just put up slot machines and say these are event contracts. Um, the eye gaming is much higher margin than sports betting, but it's only in like five or six states at this point. And then crucially, if you walk into a casino, you don't really see women in the sports books. I know like they advertise a lot of women gamblers across the network, but you see a lot more women playing slots than you do um sports betting. And so it's just like a much bigger addressable portion of the population if they can grow more and more states having slot machines in their pocket. >> Let me make a PSA public service announcement. Anyone out there, if you go eyegaming online, you're out of your mind. I mean, it's hard enough to win, but the odds when you're playing blackjack, at least with a physical dealer, and I know that some of these eye gamings, they show you a dealer that's really there. I don't trust any of it. That's just me as an old school gambler, you know, in there. And to play the slots online is is insane. >> I'm telling you, there are people with the slots that know how to figure out if the um if the progressive jackpots are positive expected value. Um so I'm most people are just going to lose and lose. >> That's landbased though, Ryan. That's not going to be on online though. You're not figuring out any sweep stakes online, are you? >> No, they they are. There are people who are on like the MGM slots online know they could they figured out the math of what like a progressive jackpot needs to be to be expect positive expected value and then they um strike like there there are teams that like do this like blackjack teams. >> I'm sure that jump trading citadel two sigma and the likes are already going to figure that one out. Obviously, they're probably going to get right right ahead of that, Ryan. Right in your back door there in uh in uh Chicago. So, yeah, I'm sure they'll I'm sure they'll figure out. All right, so >> you guys are running your your second annual conference called Tuned In. It's going to be New York on September 16th. Again, great job on getting who's coming to that. It's really incredible. Talk about that a little bit because that is the convergence of everything all at once here. >> Oh, yeah. We've got an unbelievable lineup. Thank you for mentioning that. We've got NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred, we have um Jimmy Petaro who's the head of ESPN, Jay Marine who's the head of Amazon Sports, Rick Cordella who's the head of NBC Sports with Betsy Riley who's going to be in charge of their Olympics coverage. And so they've got coming up the Super Bowl Olympics and NBA Allstar all in one week. We have the head of Fox Sports, Eric Shanks. They've got the World Cup in US coming up next summer. And then we've got a debate between Quay Travis and Stephen A. Smith. We have Noah Eagle interviewing his father, Ian Eagle. And um I don't know if I should do this, but Greg Olsen has just signed on. I don't think it's been publicly announced yet, but for anybody listening to this show, that's another one who's going to be great. And then Maria Taylor from NBC Sports. So, it's just a loaded lineup. And there's still a couple, knock on wood, big names that we're speaking to, but haven't got an affirm yes or no answer to. >> So that's in New York City, I think, on September 16th. That's a one >> and tickets are available to the public there. The link is in my pin tweet if you are interested in attending that event. >> Very cool. I want to go back to one thing here before we wrap up and that is the kind of the sports media deals that we've seen over the last kind of eight years. the NFL deal, $110 billion media rights deal, the NBA 77 billion and so forth, WWE, which we just talked about. Is there anything else big coming up on the horizon? And who do is there any other league that's currently up to negotiate? I know the WNBA stuff we've seen and and I agree with the players that they should be getting paid more relative to where sports franchises are going quickly here, but give me an idea of anything. >> Well, most of the big stuff is done, but we are going to have Oh, well, so here's what we have coming up. All of MLB's rights are up in 2028. So, everything, World Series, playoffs, everything. And they've um they're they're going to try and re-imagine the way the local rights work because these regional sports networks have been just absolutely pillaged by cord cutting. And so, they don't have anywhere near the reach that they used to. And so Rob Manford is going to try to completely disrupt that system. I don't know what it's going to look like when it's over, but those rights are up. And then the NFL, um, as I said, if the ESPN deal goes through, they have a a bucket of four games to sell. If they go to an 18 game season, that'll add an additional 16 games that they can sell because there's 32 teams. So that would bring them up to having 20 games that could come to market and they have opt outs in all of their deals in 2029. That sounds like a long way away, but that comes up quickly. So um and we'll they'll start to signal whether they're going to opt out of those in the next year or two. >> Okay. And the stuff you've been writing about most recently, what's the most intriguing story you think has legs in terms of follow on other than just news events, things that you're you're tracking at the moment? I think the creator economy where um the these big individual creators are almost their own media networks is very interesting. So I reported last week that Ryan Rasillo is going to be leaving the ringer. Um Dave Portoi and Barcel are going to be investing in his new business and taking on a managerial role in the sales and distribution of his content. And so you look at like some of these like very big people like Dave Portoi, Ryan Rasillo, Bill Simmons, Stephen A. Smith. Um they don't necessarily need networks anymore. They have built such big individual brands via social media and YouTube that they can kind of bypass them and if they want to they can license them back. And so I think that that's just a very interesting story to monitor in sports and other media going forward. Like you know, you look at like what Megan Kelly has done or Alex Cooper. And so there's all sorts of people in entertainment where I think your your goal 10 years ago was I want to get a show on CNN or ESPN or any other of those networks. Now, your goal is to have a YouTube channel with a million subscribers and just distribute to them yourself. >> Yeah, for sure. All right, before we get out of here, I know the Milwaukee Brewers are near and dear to your heart. Uh you talk about them all the time and you're about to enter obviously the playoffs. Obviously, they're going to make it there and the Green Bay Packers as we're, you know, on a on a couple days away here from the kickoff of NFL season. Give me your thoughts on your two home teams there, Ryan. Uh, I have an $18 parlay to win $70,000 on the two to win championships. Um, I I made that back when in the beginning of June when the Brewers were at 150 to1 and the Packers were at 25 to1. Now the Brewers around I don't know 9 to1 and the Packers are at about 12 to1 after this Micah Parson's trade. So I can't wait to see my heart broken both by the teams and on that ticket. Um the the Brewers have a chance. I mean the their pitching was expected to be good, but their hitting has just surpassed any reasonable expectations. They're fast up and down the lineup. They like are leading the league by substantial margin and unearned runs and runs scored from second base. These are things that I think like Moneyball part one a little bit overlooked. You know, everybody is knows that OPS and on base percentage are important stats now, but I think that like speed and fielding became undervalued and the Brewers have taken advantage of that. The Packers have a fighting chance. Uh I think the Eagles are still better than they are, but if you look at the NFC, I would say that the Packers, in my opinion, should have the second best chance to come out of there. And football is such a war of attrition. You never know what's going to happen with injuries and whatnot. So, I like the position that they're in coming into the season, even if I don't love that Micah Parson's trade long term. >> All right. Well, I don't know if you know this, but I'm an investor and adviser in wagerwire. So, my buddy Zack Doctor and those guys over there, we can make you a market in that bet. Uh, it's probably worth maybe it's 100 200 bucks right now, but you know, stay tuned. Obviously, is >> I think it's worth more than that. I'm kidding. That That's all the sports book would give you for it. But I'm saying they go out and they find buyers and sellers of some of these tickets which I think you >> I've talked to them before. I think one of one of my friends bought one of their tickets and I met I I tweeted about it. >> Yeah, they're they're really good guys. Well, Ryan, I can't thank you enough for coming on. I mean, you are at the center of it all. I think you found yourself a great seat and with all your experience um you know, you certainly um can can be the spokesperson and writer for everything we're going to see over the next few years. So, really appreciate you coming on uh to on the tape today. >> Thank you so much, Danny. really appreciate it. >> Okay, on to week one of the NFL season. It's here. Enlisters might recall that year one of the OG on the tape in 2021, I had a crazy run and a winning percentage against a spread of over 80%. And I was picking kind of one to two to three games a week. 2022 and 23, I was never going to replicate that, but I did do okay and had great playoff runs, but nowhere close to 80%. I tried it for a few weeks in 2024, but the scheduling didn't work. But I am back and this is for entertainment purposes only of course. So this week NFL week one I'm giving out three picks. Let's start with a favorite. The Denver Broncos were opening up at home against the Tennessee Titans. They are laying seven and a half points. Denver probably has the best defense in the league be facing Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward. Bicks now in his second year after great rookie campaign himself. And coach Shawn Peyton will have his guys ready. He has lost home openers in both 2023 and 2024 for the Broncos. Sean Payeyton, he's made a point to talk about it. I don't think he wants to I think he wants to leave no doubt in 2025 at the opener. So, take Denver lay seven and a half. All right. In honor of Vincent Daniel and maybe the entire Jet fan base or maybe I'm going to curse them. I'm going to take the Jets this week at home against the Steelers. Probably the most intriguing game getting three points at home underdog. I think it'll be low scoring. I think the Jets will be able to move the ball enough. I don't think Rogers is going to have a good game or a good season for that matter. many storylines in this game with Justin Fields coming over from the Steelers to the Jets and obviously the Aaron Rogers saga. Both have great defenses. Steelers def probably a little bit better, but I think the Jets running game keeps them close. Take the Jets uh and the three points at home. And another home dog I'm going to give out this week as my third pick are the Falcons. Uh my old home team there getting two and a half at home against Tampa Bay. They've won four of the last five against Tampa, including a sweep last year. The Bucks have a ton of injuries. Yes, they have Mike Evans, but they're missing some other key players on offense. I think quarterback Michael Pennock Jr. for the Falcons, who's coming off a rookie season, really didn't play a lot, will be good enough. And B John Robinson will be good enough to keep it close. So, give me the Falcons plus two and a half at home. Those are my three picks. I hope we kick off NFL week one with at least a 211 record. But stay tuned uh for the results and I'll be back to you next week.
Ryan Glasspiegel: Views From The Front Office
Summary
Transcript
In this episode of On the Tape, I am joined by Front Office Sports media and entertainment reporter Ryan Glass Beagle. With the NFL season kicking off, I thought it would be timely to have Ryan join the pod. Prior to joining Front Office Sports, Ryan wrote for Sports Illustrated and the New York Post, among other publications. With a combination of sports, business, entertainment, and culture, Ryan has a front row seat to watch and write about the advent of legalized sports gambling, the massive meteorites deals that have been announced over the last few years, and changes at the NCAA with NIL deals, and more. We get into the rapid evolution of event contracts brought about by the likes of Koshi and how they pose both a challenge and an opportunity to the state regulated incumbents like DraftKings and FanDuel. We talk about the impact of gambling and exclusive data rights have had on increasing both the value of sports franchises and these large media deals we keep seeing between leagues, networks, and streamers. We get into that and a whole lot more. And stick around until the end because I will be giving out my week one NFL picks at the end of the show. Today I am joined by Ryan Glasbagel, media and entertainment reporter at Front Office Sports. Ryan, welcome to On the Tape. >> Oh, thank you for having me. Really appreciate it. This is a big honor for me. Well, it's it's an honor to have you on our show. So, with week one of the NFL season upon us, I thought be great timing to have you on, but let's start with your background and why you made the move to join Front Office Sports, which I think was created in 2014, if I'm not mistaken. >> Yeah. So, it it's a pretty long journey, but basically, I'll give the cliff notes. I graduated in Wisconsin in 2009. I was a finance major, uh, as you know, um, and we're a big player in. there was not uh many finance jobs available in 2009 for recent graduates. Uh I wound up at an online furniture startup that was started by a Wisconsin grad. I was about there I was there for about a year and a half. Um and I left that job to start sports blogging. I started my own sports blog and I freelanced a couple of places. It took me about two years to catch on part-time at Sports Illustrated. And so even though I was only making about a third of a living wage there, I got the equivalent of like a master's in journalism for free working for this guy named Neil Janowitz, who's now the editorial director of Vulture, which is New York magazine's culture site. And so I was there for about a year. Then I landed at the Big Lead, which at the time was owned by USA Today. It was started by Jason McIntyre, who is Colin Cowardd's co-host at Fox Sports. um he really helped me learn the media business. It was a sports media focused blog and he opened up a lot of his rolodex for me and taught me about what's interesting and etc. I I land from there I landed at this site called Outkick which now is owned by Fox News but at the time was an independent site owned by Quay Travis. um I wasn't a great fit with some of the managers there and I left there um in early 2021. About 10 months later, I landed at the New York Post where I was for about three years and then um the group at Front Office Sports recruited me over um starting early this year. >> That's amazing. That's a lot in a short period of time. I mean, I find it interesting with a background in finance that things have come full circle now. We're going to get into that with all the meteorites deals and the value of these sports franchises and everything like that. So, you you also forgot to mention you live in Chicago with your wife and three daughters, I believe. I don't know if you mentioned that or not, but give them a give them a shout out. >> Three daughters. Um, they are one, four, and six. They're adorable. I love them. Um, and yeah, it's live. We live in Chicago. We're in the Bucktown Logan Square neighborhood um near Margie's Candies for anybody familiar with the city. >> Good stuff. And our other connection is that your father is a great um finance analyst obviously covering the insurance sector. Um yes, I believe. And so we had a connection way back when. So I've known him many years. So great family. All right. So let let's get into it here. you and I kind of connected a couple months ago uh when I had tweeted out about kind of these event contracts which have come on the scene here as it relates to sports gambling and how they could not only take market share but you know go into states where sports gambling is not allowed uh so far and today as we sit here we just saw a new announcement that underdog was partnering with crypto.com to provide event contracts in it sounds like states where they're currently not offering um currently their daily fantasy sports or or pick them games that they have. I guess they want to don't want to step on toes of the state regulators and so forth. But let's talk about that and kind of couch as we kick off the football season and what you see going on in that world. Yeah. So this started last year with the election where you know Poly Market was offering these election odds but it was offshore and you're dubiously not sure if it's legal or not. Khi, which is this startup exchange, comes out and says, "We're offering election odds. They won yearslong court battle to be able to offer them legally." And so they they were fighting against the CFC to be able to do that. They offered these election odds. And then around the Super Bowl, them and Crypto.com started like dipping their toes, basically offering you a chance to bet on the winner of the game. And so over the past several months, they've added things like futures contracts, like who's going to win a championship later or who's going to win a golf tournament. Then they added single game outcomes of who's going to win the game. And then um Koshi and by the way they've partnered with Robin Hood which means that it just gives them an access to millions of different people with financial accounts. Um they started offering point spreads overunders and they're going to be offering player props on who whether somebody's going to score a touchdown or not during this football season. And so obviously this has a chance to really disrupt the online sports book business. As you said, these online sports books are only in they're only legal in 39 states. Um Texas and California, if you're familiar with an electoral college map, have enormous populations. They do not have legal sports betting. It's a huge open frontier for these prediction markets if they're legal. And with that, just for people out there, I've talked about this before, but the CFTC at the national level regulates these quote event contracts and the online gambling companies are regulated at the state level. At the state level, you can have taxes anywhere from 15% up to 51% in New York. And so, you don't face those same issues with the CFTC. And so, we're seeing the spread. So really interesting is that FanDuel signed a deal recently with CME obviously right in your hometown there uh to do quote nonsports you know event but eventually I think this is going to happen. So we we've also seen that that that announcement and so I think we're going to keep seeing this over time. You have better obviously which is out there um right you know as well on the daily fantasy side among other names. So I think we're going to keep seeing this. Do you agree? Yeah, we are going to keep seeing it. And so, I mean, what what it's really going to come down to, Danny, is is the CFTC going to totally declare that these event contracts as they relate to these uh micro sports outcomes are allowed or they're not allowed. The KHI and Robin Hood and Crypto.com have been like issued cease and desist orders. They've been sued in a number of states. So far, they've gotten injunctions or little legal victories that they're still operating. What it really seems like it's going to come down to is either the Supreme Court or the CFTC is going to have to say this is allowed or this isn't allowed. And it's an interesting thing. So, right now, President Trump has nominated Brian Quinten to be head of the CFTC. Quintens is on the board at Kshi. So, you would think that if he gets um let through, then it would almost seem to be a slam dunk that what they're doing is going to be declared federally legal. But his nomination has gotten held up. There's been reports that the Winklvos twins don't want him there and so they've somehow been able to gum up this process and he hasn't been confirmed. So, we don't know what's going to happen with him or whoever replaces him if he isn't there. And then we've also got Don Jr. who is a strategic advisor to Koshi. And then last week it comes out that he his venture capital firm is investing in poly market which has now bought an exchange in America and seems poised to enter this market legally during this football season. And so we've got all of these different moving parts. And then you like as you said FanDuel with the CME now they're dipping their toes in the water. They don't want to do a cannonball because they can't defend these state regulators that they depend on in the 39 legal states. But if they get the word that these um prediction markets are kosher, then I think you're going to see them do a cannonball because why would they want to pay like these high taxes in places like New York and Illinois when they can just be subject to commodity taxation via the CFTC. >> All right, so let's back up even further than that. We're going to get to why Front Office Sports is such an incredible company. Right place, right time. literally combination of sports, business, entertainment culture. So 2018 Supreme Court struck down a 1992 federal law basically that effectively banned commercial sports betting in most states, right? So they struck it. So that opened the door for all of this to start happening. So you saw DraftKings, FanDuel who's owned by Flutter, who was already in Europe, you know, obviously come in and start um getting approval in in state jurisdictions. And then in 2021, which is a little bit of a separate issue, but I'll get to where I'm going in a minute, the NIL, the name it name, image, likeness stuff popped up. And as recently as this last year got even further uh further cemented in terms of the back pay that would be owed to college athletes all the way back to 2016. I mean, you now have college rosters, which I think Ohio State's $35 million. Texas is 30 to 40. I mean, we're literally becoming NFL franchises overnight. So this all goes back to one thing Ryan and I believe which is gambling. Gambling has increased viewership you know revenue data rights for deals. So give me your thoughts on that and how that has played a part. >> Yeah I mean it stands to reason that if you put money on a game then you're more likely to watch it. There's also been um adaptation to Neielson and how they count this stuff. So in until 2020, the only people that Neielson counted in their immediate um TV viewership numbers were people that were watching in their house. And then they started, look, I think advertisers and TV networks have always known that people gather to watch sports outside of their house, particularly football. But for the first time, Neielson started including these numbers in their immediate viewership. And so now they're counting people at bars, restaurants, their friends houses, hotels, gyms, etc. And you think like when you go out to eat, what's on the TV? It's almost invariably going to be ESPN or another sporting event. So having that stuff get counted in the immediate numbers was more gasoline fuel. But yes, to your point, the gambling, I mean, people who bet on games are more likely to watch it. That much is obvious. But it's not just the fact that it's increasing viewers. It opened up this whole huge massive advertising and marketing and sponsorship spend where you can't watch any sports or listen to any sports talk radio for hardly five or 10 minutes without seeing a reference to one of these online sports books like FanDuel or DraftKings. And so, um, yes, it at a time where it looked like sports might be in trouble because of cord cutting and people, you know, exiting the ESPN and the, um, bundle ecosystem. This gambling came along at the perfect time for the leagues and teams and their valuations. I mean, the average NFL team, correct me if I'm wrong, saw a 25% increase in valuation just from 2024 to 25 and is up over 100% since 2021. And a lot of that obviously result of data rights and also media deals that have been done. And I'm looking at the NFL schedule for just to give an example for this week. The Thursday night game obviously is on NBC. The Friday night game out of Brazil is on YouTube. The, you know, Sunday night game is obviously on NBC. And then ESPN has the money night. Just gives you an idea. And then Fox and CBS have all the other games. So talk about some of these meteorite deals we've seen between Amazon and the NFL. And it's not just the NFL, right? It's all sports. It's baseball. It's everything we've seen. Talk about that. And how much do you attribute that to again what I believe is your point is the eyes and ears that are a part of this game now that are just bringing in because of gambling. >> Yeah. I mean, and it it's competition with these tech companies. So you saw Amazon come in with the Thursday Night Football package. Netflix is going to have this double header and ESPN and the NFL did a deal where um ESPN is going to be taking operational control of NFL Network. The NFL will be taking a 10% stake in ESPN, presuming this stuff is all queered by the Justice Department. And in this deal, it opens up four more games that the NFL can sell in like a different segmented package. So, they're going to have another kind of bite at the apple and then they can opt out of their rights deals in um 2029. And the NFL also, by the way, has a stake in CBS now because the NFL owns a stake in Sky Dance, which took over CBS recently. So they um the the gambling has definitely helped all of this because it it's a additional flow of as we've said money and attention into these leagues. But I think also the the the stakeholders like the ESPN's, Fox, CBS's, NBC's of the world where the NFL is a huge part of their brand identity, they have to pay more and more and more and more to keep it as these tech companies are coming in and competing for the rights and these tech companies relative to the media companies effectively have unlimited money. When I look at the NCAA, which has been controversial for years, first of all, when they didn't pay their players, now that they're paying the players and monitoring gambling of players, which I know that you write about, they're saying two different things out of either side of their mouth, right? They're like, "All right, we don't love college athletes betting, but they can bet on pro sports, just not on college, right?" And so forth, or we don't appreciate these these player props. Meanwhile, they're selling the media rights to genius sports, right? Hundreds of millions of dollars a year. talk about that kind of hypocrisy that's going on, not just at the NCAA, and you write about all the stuff, I know. So, what do you find most interesting there? >> Yeah, I mean, it's it's clearly hypocritical and um you can call them a hypocrite and they'll they'll try and say, "Okay, well, we have these guidelines and we we don't they're not going to bet on the sports." But you know the the point shaving in college sports has been a issue for a very long time predating uh legal gambling. And so what somebody in defense of this would say is, "Well, now if there's point shaving, these sophisticated gambling networks like FanDuel, DraftKings, Hard Rock, MGM, Caesars, they're going to catch it cuz if somebody is just betting a lot of money on an obscure player prop, that's going to trip their due diligence systems." And so now they'll say that it's easier to catch these people in the act than it was when it was just, you know, a nationwide network of illegal bookmakers. Now, I think that there's something to that, but the fact that they're just flashing gambling advertisements in everybody's space and the players see the owners just getting wealthier and wealthier off the backs of it, it's going to, you know, open up um in their minds opportunities. And you know, we haven't seen this yet, knock on wood, but like a Tim Donahe type referee scandal in the legal sports betting era seems inevitable to happen because you look at like a how much the officials get paid, b how much of an impact they can have on games, especially player props. Like if there's somebody um with like an overunder assist total, they can just have that player foul out. So much of this stuff is subjective and so like they before they could just maybe impact the point spread or the overunder total. Now that they can impact player props, I think that it's only a matter of time until we see one of those again. >> Yeah, I'm I'm always wary of that and the way I talk to myself is all right, if I'm going to gamble anyway, I don't know who's going to fix what, so might as well take another side because but yes, there's no question that that that it's going on. And to your point, we only hear about people that get caught. And at the college level, 99% of those players will never be pros and they'll never make money on that level, right? So that's why there's more incentive potentially do it at that level. However, and you've written about this, I mean, we're dealing right now with a couple of Major League Baseball players which are under investigation. NBA, I mean, this is going on, you know, a lot. think it's just the access, you know, the best player in baseball's best friend, you know, you know, Otani's friend who some people argue maybe maybe Otani knew, but I I'm I'm not I'm not going to go. >> The bookmaker said it would be the bookmaker said he was interviewed this week and he or last week and he said that he suspects that Otani knew about this. So, he didn't say I know that he knew about it, but it was his suspicion. And yeah, I mean, look at the the player props that the Cleveland Guardians were accused or are accused of manipulating. You can bet whether a pitcher's first pitch is going to be a ball or a strike. That's something that is totally within their control. It's not like what it used to be with like these point spreads and it's a team game. Um, where like I mean, how much impact can one person who's not a quarterback have on any sporting event? Now, it's like literally something that they can directly control and there's huge incentives. But, as I said before, you know, if a million people are betting on a pitcher's first ball to be a ball and it's just a cartoonishly outside pitch, that's how they get caught. Now, I think it's probably a good thing that several of these athletes appear to have been caught red-handed because now the teams and the leagues can hold these educational seminars. Hey, look what happened. If you do this, you're going to get caught. Don't be stupid. But yes, it's also hypocritical because they're putting all of this gambling marketing in your face. They're telling you that you can get rich from it. What they're not telling you is that the sports books can just heavily limit anybody who wins. And so it's very much a tilted pinball machine. >> It is crazy. I've talked about this on this show um that you have draft kings of FanDuel kicking off what we call sharps, people that are actually winning and then incenting losers to keep gambling. That's a whole another story. And by the way, I should close the loop on these event contracts. And I just want again, you know, apologize to people who have heard me say this before. The most lucrative part of the business for FanDuel DraftKings are parlays and in-game live wagering. Well, these event contracts directly impact in-game live wagering. It remains to be seen what's going to happen on the parlay, >> you know, but Ryan what? Yeah, it it could come and it probably is going to come. It like it's like a drip drip drip and then it's just going to rain and so that'll be really interesting. So one of the things you guys do at front office which I think is really interesting which tells you where this has all kind of converged is you have stock tickers actually on the running across the you know the top of your website and so this is kind of a stock ccentric show and I'm not asking you to to or what earnings are going to be for any companies or give you give stock picks however I think it's really interesting how so many different media companies and I can run through them have are involved now maybe it's not the major part of their balance sheet or their business but they're getting there whether it's it's Disney or Warner Warner Brothers or Liberty Media or TKO Group or whatever it might be, Fubo. Like, are you seeing anything really interesting out there where you think there's an underappreciated company? Hate to put you on the spot, whether it's a streamer, whether it's a content deal, something you think that people are underappreciating in the sector. I told your partner um Porter Collins privately that like several months back that the market was underestimating what TKO was going to get in their UFC rights and they were underestimating boxing as a factor. That one came true unfortunately. I wish you had me on like four weeks. >> Well, first of all, I'll have my own discussion with Porter and why he's holding out on me since I am like this, you know, the sports guy. But anyway, please keep going. Yeah. the um let me think about that. You know the the Atlanta Braves treat trade at a discount to what they would transact at on the open market. I don't know exactly what their market cap is now. Maybe it's like three and a half billion and I think that when you include their like surrounding real estate it would trade at five billion. So it's like you could you're looking at around like a 50% discount of what the asset would transact at on the open market. But the question is you don't know when the duration of that 50% gets realized. So it's an interesting kind of question about whether you think that upside is worth it when you don't know what the duration is. >> Well, let's talk about Madison Square Garden because that's probably an easier one that everyone wants Dolan to just sell this, get rid of your teams, you know, because it feels like there's a lot of inherent value that has yet to really be um realized in that thing. You have any thoughts on MSG? Yeah. I mean, you're just you're dealing with one um eccentric and stubborn person. And then the other thing that you don't know is how many places in the world can you kind of copy and paste the sphere now that um look the hard part was getting all of it built once but now that they did it how many places can you build that type of arena that will draw you know 20,000 people four nights a week for the whole year and you can you you can send like the Eagles to play the sphere in Dubai or London or whatever. I don't know. It's a different It's a difficult question to know how many of those they can or will build. But yes, to your point, the Knicks and the Rangers within that portfolio, the stock trades at a severe discount if he would sell them, but they're under his control. And so it's like one person and you're trying to bet on what he's going to do and he's unpredictable. >> Yeah. And they obviously spun out the sphere, but you're right. Do they have anything like that up their sleeve? And then you look at kind of the Genius Sports, the Sport Radar, which obviously, you know, buys the rights to the data from these leagues themselves and then distributes it u to the online sports book and they're they're the provider. I'm I'm wondering if they're going to be able to have a seat at the table for some of these event contract companies, you know, as as things move forward here because Susahana, you know, to bring Wall Street into the is a market maker for a lot of these event contracts which are going out there. you wonder where the data is that they're scraping and what they're really using here for in terms of to to put overlays. >> Yeah, you you would think that the um the data companies will be very valuable to them and I I don't know whether they are contracting with them or not quite yet, but um that definitely would be like an opportunity because yeah, they've got um like SIG is doing um a lot of the market making for KHI and Crypto.com right now. >> A friend of mine just sent this to me today. It says, "Amazon AWS is hiring a senior betting and gaming advisory consultant to quote, design, implement, and optimize cloud-based solutions tailored to the unique needs of online sports betting, eye gaming, and casino gaming clients like FanDuel and DraftKings." That's an Amazon posting. And so, I find that really interesting considering we know they're hosting everything, but that they have the big deal with the NFL. Obviously, they bought the rights to it. Have you seen that yet? And what are your thoughts on that that I just read that to you? Um well I I'm glad you brought up i gaming because that's another area where um we're still in like the first or second inning and that might be less disruptable from the event contracts firms than traditional sports betting is because I don't know how Kshi or Poly market could just put up slot machines and say these are event contracts. Um, the eye gaming is much higher margin than sports betting, but it's only in like five or six states at this point. And then crucially, if you walk into a casino, you don't really see women in the sports books. I know like they advertise a lot of women gamblers across the network, but you see a lot more women playing slots than you do um sports betting. And so it's just like a much bigger addressable portion of the population if they can grow more and more states having slot machines in their pocket. >> Let me make a PSA public service announcement. Anyone out there, if you go eyegaming online, you're out of your mind. I mean, it's hard enough to win, but the odds when you're playing blackjack, at least with a physical dealer, and I know that some of these eye gamings, they show you a dealer that's really there. I don't trust any of it. That's just me as an old school gambler, you know, in there. And to play the slots online is is insane. >> I'm telling you, there are people with the slots that know how to figure out if the um if the progressive jackpots are positive expected value. Um so I'm most people are just going to lose and lose. >> That's landbased though, Ryan. That's not going to be on online though. You're not figuring out any sweep stakes online, are you? >> No, they they are. There are people who are on like the MGM slots online know they could they figured out the math of what like a progressive jackpot needs to be to be expect positive expected value and then they um strike like there there are teams that like do this like blackjack teams. >> I'm sure that jump trading citadel two sigma and the likes are already going to figure that one out. Obviously, they're probably going to get right right ahead of that, Ryan. Right in your back door there in uh in uh Chicago. So, yeah, I'm sure they'll I'm sure they'll figure out. All right, so >> you guys are running your your second annual conference called Tuned In. It's going to be New York on September 16th. Again, great job on getting who's coming to that. It's really incredible. Talk about that a little bit because that is the convergence of everything all at once here. >> Oh, yeah. We've got an unbelievable lineup. Thank you for mentioning that. We've got NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred, we have um Jimmy Petaro who's the head of ESPN, Jay Marine who's the head of Amazon Sports, Rick Cordella who's the head of NBC Sports with Betsy Riley who's going to be in charge of their Olympics coverage. And so they've got coming up the Super Bowl Olympics and NBA Allstar all in one week. We have the head of Fox Sports, Eric Shanks. They've got the World Cup in US coming up next summer. And then we've got a debate between Quay Travis and Stephen A. Smith. We have Noah Eagle interviewing his father, Ian Eagle. And um I don't know if I should do this, but Greg Olsen has just signed on. I don't think it's been publicly announced yet, but for anybody listening to this show, that's another one who's going to be great. And then Maria Taylor from NBC Sports. So, it's just a loaded lineup. And there's still a couple, knock on wood, big names that we're speaking to, but haven't got an affirm yes or no answer to. >> So that's in New York City, I think, on September 16th. That's a one >> and tickets are available to the public there. The link is in my pin tweet if you are interested in attending that event. >> Very cool. I want to go back to one thing here before we wrap up and that is the kind of the sports media deals that we've seen over the last kind of eight years. the NFL deal, $110 billion media rights deal, the NBA 77 billion and so forth, WWE, which we just talked about. Is there anything else big coming up on the horizon? And who do is there any other league that's currently up to negotiate? I know the WNBA stuff we've seen and and I agree with the players that they should be getting paid more relative to where sports franchises are going quickly here, but give me an idea of anything. >> Well, most of the big stuff is done, but we are going to have Oh, well, so here's what we have coming up. All of MLB's rights are up in 2028. So, everything, World Series, playoffs, everything. And they've um they're they're going to try and re-imagine the way the local rights work because these regional sports networks have been just absolutely pillaged by cord cutting. And so, they don't have anywhere near the reach that they used to. And so Rob Manford is going to try to completely disrupt that system. I don't know what it's going to look like when it's over, but those rights are up. And then the NFL, um, as I said, if the ESPN deal goes through, they have a a bucket of four games to sell. If they go to an 18 game season, that'll add an additional 16 games that they can sell because there's 32 teams. So that would bring them up to having 20 games that could come to market and they have opt outs in all of their deals in 2029. That sounds like a long way away, but that comes up quickly. So um and we'll they'll start to signal whether they're going to opt out of those in the next year or two. >> Okay. And the stuff you've been writing about most recently, what's the most intriguing story you think has legs in terms of follow on other than just news events, things that you're you're tracking at the moment? I think the creator economy where um the these big individual creators are almost their own media networks is very interesting. So I reported last week that Ryan Rasillo is going to be leaving the ringer. Um Dave Portoi and Barcel are going to be investing in his new business and taking on a managerial role in the sales and distribution of his content. And so you look at like some of these like very big people like Dave Portoi, Ryan Rasillo, Bill Simmons, Stephen A. Smith. Um they don't necessarily need networks anymore. They have built such big individual brands via social media and YouTube that they can kind of bypass them and if they want to they can license them back. And so I think that that's just a very interesting story to monitor in sports and other media going forward. Like you know, you look at like what Megan Kelly has done or Alex Cooper. And so there's all sorts of people in entertainment where I think your your goal 10 years ago was I want to get a show on CNN or ESPN or any other of those networks. Now, your goal is to have a YouTube channel with a million subscribers and just distribute to them yourself. >> Yeah, for sure. All right, before we get out of here, I know the Milwaukee Brewers are near and dear to your heart. Uh you talk about them all the time and you're about to enter obviously the playoffs. Obviously, they're going to make it there and the Green Bay Packers as we're, you know, on a on a couple days away here from the kickoff of NFL season. Give me your thoughts on your two home teams there, Ryan. Uh, I have an $18 parlay to win $70,000 on the two to win championships. Um, I I made that back when in the beginning of June when the Brewers were at 150 to1 and the Packers were at 25 to1. Now the Brewers around I don't know 9 to1 and the Packers are at about 12 to1 after this Micah Parson's trade. So I can't wait to see my heart broken both by the teams and on that ticket. Um the the Brewers have a chance. I mean the their pitching was expected to be good, but their hitting has just surpassed any reasonable expectations. They're fast up and down the lineup. They like are leading the league by substantial margin and unearned runs and runs scored from second base. These are things that I think like Moneyball part one a little bit overlooked. You know, everybody is knows that OPS and on base percentage are important stats now, but I think that like speed and fielding became undervalued and the Brewers have taken advantage of that. The Packers have a fighting chance. Uh I think the Eagles are still better than they are, but if you look at the NFC, I would say that the Packers, in my opinion, should have the second best chance to come out of there. And football is such a war of attrition. You never know what's going to happen with injuries and whatnot. So, I like the position that they're in coming into the season, even if I don't love that Micah Parson's trade long term. >> All right. Well, I don't know if you know this, but I'm an investor and adviser in wagerwire. So, my buddy Zack Doctor and those guys over there, we can make you a market in that bet. Uh, it's probably worth maybe it's 100 200 bucks right now, but you know, stay tuned. Obviously, is >> I think it's worth more than that. I'm kidding. That That's all the sports book would give you for it. But I'm saying they go out and they find buyers and sellers of some of these tickets which I think you >> I've talked to them before. I think one of one of my friends bought one of their tickets and I met I I tweeted about it. >> Yeah, they're they're really good guys. Well, Ryan, I can't thank you enough for coming on. I mean, you are at the center of it all. I think you found yourself a great seat and with all your experience um you know, you certainly um can can be the spokesperson and writer for everything we're going to see over the next few years. So, really appreciate you coming on uh to on the tape today. >> Thank you so much, Danny. really appreciate it. >> Okay, on to week one of the NFL season. It's here. Enlisters might recall that year one of the OG on the tape in 2021, I had a crazy run and a winning percentage against a spread of over 80%. And I was picking kind of one to two to three games a week. 2022 and 23, I was never going to replicate that, but I did do okay and had great playoff runs, but nowhere close to 80%. I tried it for a few weeks in 2024, but the scheduling didn't work. But I am back and this is for entertainment purposes only of course. So this week NFL week one I'm giving out three picks. Let's start with a favorite. The Denver Broncos were opening up at home against the Tennessee Titans. They are laying seven and a half points. Denver probably has the best defense in the league be facing Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward. Bicks now in his second year after great rookie campaign himself. And coach Shawn Peyton will have his guys ready. He has lost home openers in both 2023 and 2024 for the Broncos. Sean Payeyton, he's made a point to talk about it. I don't think he wants to I think he wants to leave no doubt in 2025 at the opener. So, take Denver lay seven and a half. All right. In honor of Vincent Daniel and maybe the entire Jet fan base or maybe I'm going to curse them. I'm going to take the Jets this week at home against the Steelers. Probably the most intriguing game getting three points at home underdog. I think it'll be low scoring. I think the Jets will be able to move the ball enough. I don't think Rogers is going to have a good game or a good season for that matter. many storylines in this game with Justin Fields coming over from the Steelers to the Jets and obviously the Aaron Rogers saga. Both have great defenses. Steelers def probably a little bit better, but I think the Jets running game keeps them close. Take the Jets uh and the three points at home. And another home dog I'm going to give out this week as my third pick are the Falcons. Uh my old home team there getting two and a half at home against Tampa Bay. They've won four of the last five against Tampa, including a sweep last year. The Bucks have a ton of injuries. Yes, they have Mike Evans, but they're missing some other key players on offense. I think quarterback Michael Pennock Jr. for the Falcons, who's coming off a rookie season, really didn't play a lot, will be good enough. And B John Robinson will be good enough to keep it close. So, give me the Falcons plus two and a half at home. Those are my three picks. I hope we kick off NFL week one with at least a 211 record. But stay tuned uh for the results and I'll be back to you next week.