SILVER Could Soar to Triple Digits 'Within Months' – 'There's Not ENOUGH Physical': Lobo Tiggre
Summary
Silver Market Dynamics: Lobo Tiggre discusses a potential silver squeeze due to a physical shortage in London, which could drive prices to triple digits faster than anticipated.
Industrial vs. Monetary Factors: Despite concerns about silver's industrial component affecting prices during a recession, Tiggre emphasizes silver's dual role as both a commodity and a form of money.
Supply Constraints: The majority of silver is mined as a byproduct of other metals like copper, lead, and zinc, making it challenging to ramp up supply quickly in response to price increases.
Investment Strategy: Tiggre advises caution in the current high-price environment for silver miners, suggesting that investors wait for potential corrections before buying.
Gold Market Outlook: While gold has reached real all-time highs, Tiggre remains bullish due to strong fundamentals like central bank buying and inflationary pressures.
Copper Market Insights: Supply disruptions have constrained copper availability, supporting prices despite economic weakness, but Tiggre remains patient for potential buying opportunities.
Uranium Sector Trends: Recent gains in uranium equities are driven by headline news and AI hype, but Tiggre warns of potential volatility and suggests waiting for better entry points.
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day and on this episode I'm thrilled to welcome Lobo Trag to the program, a veteran of the metals and mining sector and the author of the independent speculator. Are growing supply deficits now leading to the real silver squeeze? one that could lead us to a tripledigit price tag. Lobo thinks such an event could happen faster than most anticipate as short scramble to cover amid a physical shortage in London that has sent the market into a frenzy. Is Lobo a buyer of silver miners at these levels? Or is he sitting on the sidelines waiting for a potential correction? We also dive into the copper sector, the uranium sector, and so much more. So strap yourselves in for my conversation with Lobo Tra. Lobo Tra, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. It has been too long. I want to kick things off with the silver market now reaching new all-time highs in nominal terms and has continued rising. I believe we're about $51 or very close to that range as of the time of this recording. Now, I know in the past you've had some concerns when it comes to the silver market due to its industrial component and the effects that that could potentially have on the price in a recession. Um, I'm wondering if that's still a concern for you now that we've passed the $50 mark or do you think the greater risk is sitting on the sidelines as silver continues to rip higher? >> No and no, actually, so the recession has nothing to do with the with the price or the exchange rate because silver is still money. So the exchange rate going I mean that that's um several ways to look at that. The recession call if there and and by the way I didn't say there will be one. I said if there is one then that becomes a headwind for silver or at least the you know the tailwind from the industrial aspect that it has in addition to its monetary aspect goes away. Uh so that that that's still there that's still on the table. Trump shock is still happening. uh as we speak. It was last Friday that Trump riled things up, you know, the 100% tariffs on China. They're saying now it's basically Beijing has to back down on the rare earth restriction or else. And um maybe they will. I don't know. She doesn't seem like the kind of guy to just, you know, want to bend the knee. So, we'll see what happens. Um but the point is, you know, Trump shock is alive and well. that has yet really to work its way through the real economy. So there is if you know I'm not calling a recession because don't forget the money helicopters, but there's reason to be concerned about weakness. So that's still on the table. As far as the the record run here of silver, there's the reasons for concern are are different. I mean, I'm I'm long. I'm delighted to see silver finally reach a nominal uh all-time high and stay there. This is a big deal. Like the the 2011 spike or the 1980 spikes, those were up intraday right back down again afterwards. So this is already different. It's staying here. So you know, that's pretty exciting, pretty encouraging. On the other paw, it's not just there because of, you know, financial things or ddollarization or, you know, there's talk about maybe central banks are going to start buying silver. And a few oddities aside, I really don't think that's the case. This isn't a, you know, a Basel 3 thing, uh, the central banks are not the poor man. They don't need to worry about the poor man's gold. And silver tarnishes. They don't need to spend time polishing those bars in the basement. It's it's not as easy to to keep. It's bulkier and more temperamental than gold is. I just maybe I'm wrong. I don't see the central banks piling into silver. Um, but we do have right now a squeeze in London. there's not enough physical there right now. And so that's um you know it's it's not just driving things but it's it's why we have that backwardation. It's why spot is higher than the futures you know London versus comics. So it's possible that that sticks around for a long time but you know silver is still being mined quite actively. It's a byproduct. So I suspect that it won't stick around that long. Now the the it's also been declared a critical mineral at least by the United States. So it it's not as easy as just ah put some silver back on airplanes and send it over to London. Um so what am I saying here? What I'm saying is it's exciting to see silver run up like this, but it's actually a relief to me that there seems to be a a bonafide squeeze going on in the physical market right now that's causing it. And why that's a relief is because if silver was finally catching up to gold, you know, any gold or silver bull will tell you that silver usually lags and then catches up to gold at the end of the bull market. It more than catches up to gold. So if silver was doing that more than catches up bit right now, that would be a signal that this bull run is coming to an end. And as a fundamentalist, I don't think that's the case. As a long, I don't want that to be the case. Uh Mr. Market doesn't care what I want, but I'm relieved. That's why I'm relieved that what seems to be going on is a silver specific kurfuffle in London right now. And then I'm hopeful that we go on to a more regular march upwards. would be much better the for the longevity of this market. >> Well, we were speaking about silver being at all-time high in nominal terms. Obviously, if we wanted to get there um adjusted for inflation 1980, we're looking at around 200 plus. And that's using official government inflation statistics. >> The most conservative case, right? Every time I do that, people say, "Oh, it's the CP lie. Don't you know it's nonsense?" >> Of course, but if we use their number, they can't criticize us for it, >> right? So, you know, recently we've seen Bank of America call for $65 silver. I believe in 2026, uh there was a Market Watch published an article titled, "Bank of America now see $65 silver as price spike reduces London market to a state of seizure." So, are we now living in the real silver squeeze? you know, we had the the so-called retail crowd driven silver squeeze um back when silver went up to around $35 an ounce, I believe, and um and then came back down on the other side. Are we now living through the real physical squeeze of the silver market? And do you think we could see that real all-time high, that tripledigit silver price up ahead? >> Uh yes and yes. The the ultimate irony to me here is that, you know, silver bulls, they really tried and and they tried to organize. They're try they tried to sort of crowdsource a silver squeeze. They were there was more than one attempt and they all fizzled. It's just it's too big. There's not enough of us diehard hard money advocates, you know, people like you and I and even our audience, the entire audience, you know, we're such a tiny slice of the overall investment world, let alone the population at large. we just couldn't swing it. Um, but Donald Trump, love him or hate him, like he has actually manufactured a bonafide silver squeeze. Like there there is not enough physical in London right now, which you know, imagine if somebody had asked me or you or if you had talked about this with any of your guests a couple years ago and they predicted, you know, not enough bars in London, would you? What would you have said? What would you have thought? I don't I don't know. But it's it's amazing to see it happen and it and it's a byproduct. I don't think Trump intended for this. This wasn't designed to produce a silver squeeze. He included silver in the critical minerals list and he talked up all his tariffs and things and a lot of bullion left London and went to the US and now suddenly uh there's a squeeze going on. So uh that's real. It's and it's physical and it's it's kind of fun to see the you were polite enough to ask the second part of your question by saying could it to which I answered yes will it is a much more difficult question to answer and be right about so will it I don't know but could it yeah if if this squeeze continues and you know don't forget that the manufacturers the solar panel people and the electronics people who use silver in you know in their real world applications this isn't optional They can't just substitute aluminum or copper or something uh for these functions. Well, I guess you can make aluminum mirrors. Um but for the solar panels, you need the silver, right? So, uh there is a there is a I can't put a number on it. I want to say a probability because you know for a probability you have to have your ps and q's and divide them and get a ratio. We don't know what those numbers are. But there's not just a non-zero but I would say let's say a non-trivial possibility that as that physical supply demand continues and sorry as the physical demand continues from the actual real world users and not enough people are bringing in grandma's tea service right to supply that that we could see this we could see this melt up. So, could yes, could we see a a a CPI adjusted real all-time high? Yeah, we could. That could happen within a month or two. Will it? God only knows. You know, certainly not. I said the wolf. You know, it it could be that um the current surge has induced the various participants to change and uh it resolves itself soon. I I really don't know. and I wouldn't believe anybody who did say that. Anyway, >> the sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver Gold Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. Take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 3072649441 or by email at IanarchsGgo.com. Make sure to tell them of course that Commodity Culture sent you. And now back to the interview. I want to dive a little bit deeper into the factor that most silver is mined as a byproduct as opposed to a primary metal. Um, ramping up supply obviously is much more difficult in that scenario. walk us through how much silver is mined as a byproduct versus primary and how this affects the supply demand dynamics for the market. >> Right. Um so the most sensitive one here would be silver is a byproduct from gold obviously that you know they they occur together a lot. They're mined together and a gold miner right now is incented to ramp up his or her output anyway, right? So, so that miner will respond to the higher silver price and the higher gold price which are moving in the same direction. Um, but that's actually pretty small. The the base metals are a much larger fraction. I've I've I understand it's something like 60%. And if you if you pick them by the metal, the single highest producer of silver as a byproducts is actually copper. If you add lead and zinc together, which they commonly occur together, lead and zinc combined are the big one. Uh but if you add all of those together, lead, zinc, and copper, it's huge. This really is where most of the uh world's silver comes from. I think uh until recently, the Polish copper miner was the world's biggest producer of silver. And so that that tells you a lot. I mean, this is just one company, but it tells you about the structure of the market. So, uh for silver bulls, this is actually good news. It means okay even if the gold producers ramp up to meet the market um that will have a marginal impact on silver. Yes, it will produce more silver but not as much as if copper were going through the roof and copper producers were ramping up. And the even better news is that even if copper does go through the roof, which I do expect and I'm sure you'll ask about in due course, um these copper mines take a long time like a one big enough to matter. You know, there are little high-grade underground bits here and there, but they don't move the market. These great big, you know, mega pit projects that are where the world's the world's big copper supply come from, you know, those take year even if you have the permits, which can take years or even decades, right? Looking for a resolution there. um once you even have the permits it takes years to build these gigantic mega projects. So you know copper could go to the moon I mean tomorrow um and it would have zero impact on the silver supply right away. Now in due course though it would in due course is especially if the safe haven demand were to go down you know Trump fixes everything and the world is happy happy joy joy and you know I don't see that as a likely outcome but if it happened right and monetary safe haven demand went down for silver at the same time that industrial output was cranking up that would actually be bearish for silver um not a concern I have right now right now it's the opposite I I'm I'm the only shadow on the horizon for me other than you know hockey stick always calls for caution but in terms of market fundamentals I'm a fundamentalist not a chartist is silver does have its industrial side as a as a use not as a byproduct on the use side and if Trump shock does cause more economic weakness um that turns into a headwind for silver that does not affect gold so that's something to watch out for that's not a call it's not a prediction cuz don't forget the money helicopter But it's something to watch for. If it materializes, then it's reason for caution. >> Let's talk about the silver mining sector for a moment because the SIL ETF has been on quite a tear year to date up around 120%. Are you a buyer of silver miners here? Are you on the sidelines? And as FOMO starts to build in the sector, as inevitably happens, especially if we reach a mania stage, what are the signs you would be looking out for that it's time to take profits or exit the sector entirely? >> Well, that's five questions. Um, >> yeah, >> first one is yes, I am. Well, I am and I am not. I'm I'm not buying any gold or silver stocks right now. I've I've for the first time in my career as the independent speculator I have yanked my shopping list completely just because you know the better ones they're if not at 52- week highs you know all-time highs you know they're they're the hockey stick thing and the whole idea is to buy low sell high now I'm not saying it can't or won't go higher I'm just saying this is not a buy low moment and markets fluctuate so I I I've never done it before I have no shopping list this month Um, that said, I'm already long, you know, so I'm not feeling any FOMO, right? I've got tons of gold and silver in my portfolio already. So, if it keeps screaming upwards, fine by me. I'm fine with that. Um, but yeah, I would it would be very difficult for me to say to anybody who's brand new to the space, just coming in, sure, fine. It's got to keep going to the moon. Bye bye. Bye. You know, you you can hurt a lot of people doing that, Jesse. I mean even if it does eventually go higher if if the next leg next big leg is actually down those Johnny come lately they will panic they will sell they will have bought high and sold low and they will be hurt and I just I don't want to encourage that to happen so no no shopping list in gold and silver this month that said is there a case to pile in actually there is not as a disciplined speculator I am not doing this I'm just saying if if you've got Vegas money, you want to gamble, instead of instead of going to Vegas and pulling the slot machine, there is a chance that we go into the mania phase. Like the next big move could be the mania phase. If that happens, gold and silver stocks will go much higher. And and by the way, the Johnny Gum lately, they'll pile into what Doug Casey used to call the go-to stocks first, not the crappy little juniors. So you could get more alpha ironically on the bigger stocks in that mania phase because that's where the dumb money, pardon me, but you know the Johnny come lately, that's where they'll pile into. They'll they'll say, "Oh, what's a gold company?" And they'll do a Google search and you and I both know and the audience knows who's going to come up, right? What's a silver company? Right? They'll they'll find them. So, um there is a case to be made for those with a stakes for sorry um for a a hankering for high stakes gambling. I mean there is a there could be an explosive move could be the next thing an explosive move upwards could be the next thing that hits this market. So if if you like gambling on that sort of thing I'm not going to say no. I'm saying I'm not doing it because you know I'm I'm not trying to swing for the bleachers here. I am trying to consistently as reliably as possible make money over time. And the way to do that is to buy low and sell high, not to buy high and hope to sell higher. And and to the I think I lost track of your five questions, but I think the ending question was basically when to sell high. >> Yeah. >> Um and uh I'm not smart enough to figure that out. I don't know when the market is going to top. Even my mentors Rick Rule, Doug Casey, none of them claim to know that. I think anybody, no offense to any chartists in the audience, you know, anybody that's convinced that their Fibonacci this that or the other says, "Oh, it's got to go down now or up now." I think that's dangerous. It's worth taking under advisement, but to believe it like the gospel is dangerous. I think so. What I do, and we've talked about this before, I think Jesse, is I have a strategy I call the upside maximizer. That's a free report on our website if you don't mind me mentioning it. And it's like a a stop-loss except for instead of a stop-loss, it's a trailing ratcheting stop on my wins so that I don't have to know when the market tops. If things roll over, then I get triggered. And at the very least, I can recover my initial investment and and be risk-f free. or if things are looking scary, I can, you know, take a lot more all of my profits and leave just, you know, or if they're all getting triggered, you know, it's not just this company, but like the market is rolling over, I might be much more aggressive and and like close positions and exit in a bigger way um to be able to and then I'll have cash to buy back in if it's just a dip or I'll be out of harm's way if the next real move is a bare market. Not predicting that. I'm not calling that. I'm saying I don't know. But I have a method for making sure that all these big wins we're all enjoying don't slip through my claws. >> Great. Well, I'll put a link to that article in the description so people can check it out. I want to pivot to gold here. Um, obviously ripping as well as we've been discussing. some people pointing out by technical indicators it's overbought on RSI and some other things, but you're a fundamental guy and I think a lot of the fundamentals could potentially be trumping those technical indicators, particularly as we're entering unprecedented territory when it comes to government debt and deficits, money printing, all of these sorts of things that we always discuss on this show. What are your general thoughts here on the gold market? Do you think gold has more resilience over the long term than silver because that industrial component is is removed and at the moment the monetary aspects behind gold seem to be so strong? >> Uh yes and no. I mean industrial use cases are not a bad thing and and yes they can be volatile but ultimately I see silver as a relatively cheaper than gold still. It's, you know, if if if I can't say gold is is a buy low, sell high opportunity, at least silver is only nominally at all-time highs, whereas gold has already reached real alltime highs or at least real, you know, according to the CPI. Um so that so there's a different case there and and the additional tailwinds from the industrial use you know you know the Trump agenda is inflationary Europe's remilitarization is inflationary you know the global average is inflationary which is good for silver too so I I've been saying I see silver as the win-win metal because it gets the benefit from the monetary side the debasement trade you know isn't it striking Jesse that Wall Street has caught on to to monetary debasement The debasement trade has become the latest buzzword on mainstream financial media. You know, gold bugs are like, what have we been saying for decades, right? But now it's become the trendy thing like silver benefits from that as well as the electrification trend and these other factors. So I, you know, people call me Darth silver and all that stuff, but I'm actually quite bullish on silver. Um, but to to the to the question on the gold on the fundamentals, yes, it could go higher. This isn't something new and all inspiring for me to tell you, but the central bank gold buying is absolutely a gamecher and and I think it's irreversible. That is a one-way paradigm shift. It's not going back. The Chinese and the Russians certainly are not going to suddenly decide to trust trust Washington and New York with their financial well-being, right? So, that's not going away. And there's some people say, well, you know, how much gold can they buy? They you know, at some point the central bank gold buying will run out. will it? Well, my answer to that is how much money can central banks print? You know, when they can't print anymore, maybe they can't buy anymore. Remember, they don't have to buy gold in dollars. You know, China is the world's biggest gold producer now, not South Africa, right? So, uh I just I just see that as a very very not just bullish, but um downside mitigating change that's solid. I I if if gold corrects If gold were to drop $1,000 an ounce, Jesse, the stocks, of course, would get creamed. People would be panicking. There would be blood in the streets. But that would take us down to over $3,000 an ounce. The actual business of make producing the stuff from the ground would be printing money, like literally making money, hauling it out of the ground, real money, right? and the and the better projects and the developers out there, if we crashed to $3,000 an ounce, those projects would still be very high margin. So, with with the fundamentals strongly supportive of gold, the central bank buying, the inflationary outlooks, all this stuff is supportive. And if we got a little correction, I don't know, it would be I'd be nervous about still buying high. But if we got a big correction that scared the be Jesus out of the market, I would see that as an absolute gift. I would pile in. Now, there's a there's a nonzero chance that if that happened, it could be 2011, right? And the next we could go into a bare market for some years. Um, so if I did buy that dip, you know, more than a dip, if I thought, oh, you know, the market's giving me a gift. I'm going to buy low here, and then we go into a bare market for years, I would go underwater if I did that. I think the odds are the other way, though, because of the central bank buying, these other things we're talking about. I think even if we had some big panic, you know, people, you know, started to take profits and that triggered other profit taking and that cascaded into a big event, I think the odds are that that would be a buying opportunity. And if it did turn into 2011 all over again, well, guess what? If you bought at the top in 2011, you're more than 2x that right now in gold itself. So for the disciplined patient speculator, even that event would be survivable. I would I would like to avoid, as I was saying earlier, you know, getting people to buy high and panic and sell low. But I'm telling you what I would do, Jesse. I you know, I think the answer to your question is fundamentals make me very bullish. The hockey stick makes me nervous. I honestly don't know what happens next. A little wobble probably wouldn't get me to pile back in. A big one, I it would. And if it turned out that I have to be patient for a time, then I'd be patient for a time. But my expectation would be that if we had a big correction, it would be a very sharp Vshape on the other side cuz reality would assert itself. And by the way, I think the central banks would swoop in big time if there was a big correction. I I think it's unlikely that we see something of the magnitude of a thousand correction, which is less than a 25% correction right now. >> Well, let's shift over to the copper market. as I know you're bullish there. As you mentioned earlier, some interesting price action recently as we saw the Trump administration a little while back. Once again, the Trump shock being very real, which has been one of your themes that seems to be playing out. We saw a surge in the price on announced copper tariffs only to see it collapse down on the other side when the tariffs were announced to be on copper wiring and some very specific copper products. Um, but still above $5 a pound as we sit here today. What are your current thoughts on the overall state of the copper market and and how you see it moving forward? >> Well, every year there's some disaster somewhere. Uh and you know, it astounds me. I understand that, you know, a mine disaster is unpredictable and how do you factor that into your model? So, any given disaster can't be predicted. I get that. But it seems like there's one or two every year. And so why don't these engineering firms that put out their supply and demand forecasts, why don't they just like have a I don't know a blanket 10% less than projected supply? Like you you ask them, how do you know that's that this many tons of copper is going to be produced? Well, that's what the companies are guiding. What I'm saying is companies routinely fail to meet guidance. And even when they were on track to meet guidance, you get a Cobb Panama or you get a landslide or you get a sinkhole or right something happens, right? A flood in a mine. And it just so happens that right now um we have three significant copper mine um failures or disappointments or problems that are significantly constraining this year's supply in ways that are beyond what was modeled. So, you know, people are like, "Well, Lobo, if you're saying the economy is weak, why is Dr. Copper doing so well?" Well, it's not because the economy is doing so well. It's because the physical supply has actually been more constrained this year than expected. So, I've actually been rethinking my thesis on this basis that the supply constraint is big enough that it is already offsetting the economic weakness in my view and it could continue to do so. I've been asking myself, you know, self, maybe maybe we're not going to get that buying opportunity in copper. On the other hand, as we speak, just this last Friday with the latest round of Trump shock, you know, copper fell off a small cliff. So, wasn't a big one, right? And it's recovered mostly, but it tells us that that mechanism is still there. That if there's more economic scary news, Dr. Copper will retreat. That's the what the latest data is telling us. So, this makes me patient. You know, I was before last Friday, I was really thinking maybe I should go ahead and pull out my shopping list and start picking away at that. And maybe for the patient people, the people who know that they have the stomach to see it through if they buy something now and it drops 50% before going up again. You know, that famous Rick Ro thing like you've interviewed him. How many times has he told you that his biggest wins, they all had 50% draw downs before they became 10 baggers or whatever, right? If you have the guts to do that and stay that trade and not panic out and, you know, buy high, sell low, maybe you don't wait, maybe you don't fool around with all this trying to figure out where the best buying opportunity is. U personally, I'm very reluctant to give that kind of guidance because I know a lot of people will get hurt if if things do go bad. Long story short, what I'm saying is the very latest data tells us that copper will retreat if there's more scary news. So, you got to ask yourself, punk, how many bullets do I have left in the gun? No. Um, are there is there more likeliness of scary news in the remainder of this year? And I'm looking at what's going on in the world. I'm I'm seeing plenty of opportunity for scary news. So, I'm willing to wait a bit more. And I hope I get this buying opportunity. If not, I've been piling up cash and I'll just buy anyway. And I'm I'm that convinced of the long-term thesis, the go, sorry, the copper bull thesis that if I don't get this buying opportunity, I'll still have plenty of opportunity to make money going forward. Um, and one last quick thing, I had I've had a couple people write in and say, "Oh, I've heard about um you know, there's new substitutes for copper. There's new conductors coming to the market. You know, maybe maybe your multi-deade bull case for copper is wrong. Okay, maybe. But Doug Casey himself taught me never to bet on science projects, right? I don't And and you know, quoting our friend Rick Rule, never confuse the inevitable with the imminent. I'm not sure this is inevitable. It's still a science project. But even if it was inevitable, that doesn't make it imminent. It certainly doesn't make it happening now. And so I think that we're still in for a multi-year, if not multi-deade, copper bull market. And if new technology, new um substitutes were to come into play, we would absolutely see that a mile off coming. It, you know, the news would be out. We would we would see the press releases. We would see and remember even, you know, tests and and pilot programs, that's not commercial adoption. We will see this coming and we'll be able to adjust accordingly. >> I want to end on uranium equities today absolutely ripping many of them up double digits. Uh a theme that's actually been >> impressing me. I wanted to buy. I was I was a buyer. >> Um well it should be noted which I posted on X. I sold my initial position in energy fuels because I felt it was getting ahead of itself and it's ripping 30% today. So there there we go. Um, I think that's more due to the rare earth component of that particular company, but nonetheless, we're seeing a resurgence. It wasn't that long ago, what was that maybe June or July of this year that everybody was throwing in the towel on X, claiming the thesis is dead. Would the uranium bulls please come out and explain themselves? People were making posts like this at that time. And since then, it's basically been all upside. We've seen massive gains. Now, a lot of that, however, I feel has been driven by headline news. Once again, Trump shock coming out of the Trump administration that they are wanting to fasttrack uranium mining projects. The Department of Energy coming out and tweeting something like, "We have the uranium, we have the will, we're going to bring on the new nuclear." >> It's also become an AI play. >> Yes. Which is >> which is a very much of a mixed blessing. >> Yes. Because I don't see nuclear energy being a near near-term beneficiary of AI data center buildout. I think that's going to be more natural gas, but it has gotten wrapped up in the whole AI conversation as well. So, I feel like a lot of these dramatic gains that have been coming recently are more headline driven and less so than fundamentals. Although the fundamentals extraordinarily strong, we've been in a supply deficit since around 2018 and that deficit continues. We need much more uranium and mines are facing all sorts of problems similar to what you were talking about with copper. We're we're seeing you know companies misguidance. We're seeing issues bringing production online etc etc. So what are your thoughts on the uranium sector at present? Would you be cautious at this point seeing as so many of these gains do seem driven by the AI race and headlines coming out of the Trump administration? >> Yeah, that's um good news and bad news. same same news as both things. Just real quick, I mean, you ran over in your in your buildup here, but it's really worth pointing out that it was reasonable last year to ask if high prices would cure high prices. When uranium went to triple digits, there were a lot of high margin projects just waiting for shovels to hit dirt. The world's two largest producers had voluntarily, like OPEC, had voluntarily cut back output. And it was reasonable to think that that would ramp back up again. And it was fair to ask, you know, is this sustainable with all this lowhanging fruit around? And we now have an answer to that question. You know, the lowhanging fruit has proven very prickly, very hard to pick. Even the two biggest and the best have moved the goalposts and you know who they are to your audience, right? And the juniors, the smaller ones, all kinds of problems. I don't think a single one of them has ramped up according to initial expectations. They've either moved the gold post or lower the production during ramp up. A couple of them haven't even been able to build the mine or or get going again and and not all of them due to coup d'etas in Africa. Uh right, it has been very difficult. So the thesis here and meanwhile it's like if not every day then every week there's some new demand. You know the Chinese want to double their reactor fleet. The BRICS countries are going forward. Even Europe is going forward. Like the demand case is so solid. I I've said it before. Yes, this is a trade that can literally melt down on us if we have no another Chernobyl scale event, but those are very rare. I mean, arguably, it's only happened once. Fukushima was a tsunami. Three-mile island was a nothing burger, right? There's only been one, and it was arguably more about Soviet stupidity than nuclear engineering. But anyway, so the case is really, really solid. And and the AI hype now and the administration, you know, the my my problem like as as a long I'm already long. I I so I'm benefiting from this. I'm fine with that. I'm not feeling any FOMO, but the case is so exciting that I would like to have more I'd like to have more uranium in my portfolio. And the share prices are just been really stubborn. Like we've gotten not just the correction a while ago, but we've had since uranium carved out a bottom this year, it's corrected sharply twice, including last week and the stocks just didn't budge. I mean, you know, maybe a 1% wiggle or something. We haven't gotten the sale that I was hoping for. So, but then again, if you believe that AI is hyped up, then that's the good news, right? That the bad news is that it makes us vulnerable. But the good news is that that can create buying opportunities. Remember when that Deep Seek thing came out and suddenly everybody it's like, "Oh, AI could be more efficient, so we won't need more power." Like, what are you smoking? You make it more efficient, you'll just use more of it, not less. But, you know, the AI was icing on top of the cake anyway. We needed more power anyway. So, there was this huge sell-off of all things AI on that Deep Seek thing. And that included spot uranium, and that included uranium stocks. And and in my view, that was an absolute gift from Mr. Market. It was the most stupid wrongheaded sell-off that I've seen in a long time. And it was a spectacular buying opportunity. If you had missed the uranium bull market before and the great screaming ride up to to triple digits, that was your chance to hop back on at prices like before that rally up. It was a So, I'm I'm long so I'm not feeling FOMO. I'm not chasing anything now, but I'm aware that in a market like this where things can sell off for stupid reasons, maybe we'll get lucky and there'll be another opportunity to to do something like that. Some I don't know, it could easily be something in the AI space or it could just be economic shock. You know, Dr. Copper wiggles uranium itself is very recession resistant, but the spot price can fluctuate. you know, when when the energy sector so-called sells off, spot uranium can drop and if it drops enough, we might get a a buying opportunity. So, rather like gold and silver, you know, I would not I am not a uranium stock buyer today. I'm long and I'm happy. I'm not feeling FOMO. But if I was new to the space, I think this is even more likely to see fluctuations, significant fluctuations than gold. And so if I was new to the space, I would wait for that. Um, if I was absolutely convinced the bottom is is in, it can only go up from here, then I would probably buy the metal itself via ETF rather than one of the companies. The companies are more volatile and and that way I'd at least have a little finger or a claw in the pie as the case may be and and and relieve the FOMO. Um, but this is not the time to chase things. Not in a market that's so volatile. I mean, Chemico, when that Deepseek thing came out, it it went screaming down to a 52- week low, and within a month or two, it was at all-time highs again, and that was this year, right? On on stupid boneheaded misinterpretation of news. In a market like that, why should we be feeling FOMO? Like, markets fluctuate. That That's my take. Well, speaking of your take, tell us about the independent speculator, both the uh free version of the newsletter and the my take paid service. >> Okay. Well, the digest is a free weekly letter. Um we ask you to register on our website to see that because we had problems with spam and all this stuff with the emails. So now you you get one email notification per week. We do not spam you. Uh very simple. and you can see how I think and decide whether or not I might be able to help you with your due diligence on that front. Very briefly, the independent speculator is built around my own personal portfolio. It's what I'm doing with my own money. Uh, and my take is actually not really a newsletter at all. It's it's very misunderstood. It's a it's a database. You can slice it, dice it. You know, if you want silver junior producers not in Mexico, like you can get that list, something like that. Um, and I don't always get things right, but I am independent. There is no amount any company can pay me to give them a thumbs up when they deserve a thumbs down. So, check it out. >> I will put a link to the independent speculator.com in the description below. Lobo, as always, great conversation. Thank you for coming on. >> Thank you, Jesse. >> Thank you for joining us today. Our sponsor, Arc Silver Gold, Osmium, has some great prices on gold and silver bullion. They are on screen right now. To take advantage, reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 307264-9441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com. And make sure to tell them that Commodity Culture sent you. And be sure to pick up your Commodity Culture merch, all backed by a 100% quality guarantee. Link is in the description below. And I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up to date with the latest episodes.
SILVER Could Soar to Triple Digits 'Within Months' – 'There's Not ENOUGH Physical': Lobo Tiggre
Summary
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day and on this episode I'm thrilled to welcome Lobo Trag to the program, a veteran of the metals and mining sector and the author of the independent speculator. Are growing supply deficits now leading to the real silver squeeze? one that could lead us to a tripledigit price tag. Lobo thinks such an event could happen faster than most anticipate as short scramble to cover amid a physical shortage in London that has sent the market into a frenzy. Is Lobo a buyer of silver miners at these levels? Or is he sitting on the sidelines waiting for a potential correction? We also dive into the copper sector, the uranium sector, and so much more. So strap yourselves in for my conversation with Lobo Tra. Lobo Tra, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. It has been too long. I want to kick things off with the silver market now reaching new all-time highs in nominal terms and has continued rising. I believe we're about $51 or very close to that range as of the time of this recording. Now, I know in the past you've had some concerns when it comes to the silver market due to its industrial component and the effects that that could potentially have on the price in a recession. Um, I'm wondering if that's still a concern for you now that we've passed the $50 mark or do you think the greater risk is sitting on the sidelines as silver continues to rip higher? >> No and no, actually, so the recession has nothing to do with the with the price or the exchange rate because silver is still money. So the exchange rate going I mean that that's um several ways to look at that. The recession call if there and and by the way I didn't say there will be one. I said if there is one then that becomes a headwind for silver or at least the you know the tailwind from the industrial aspect that it has in addition to its monetary aspect goes away. Uh so that that that's still there that's still on the table. Trump shock is still happening. uh as we speak. It was last Friday that Trump riled things up, you know, the 100% tariffs on China. They're saying now it's basically Beijing has to back down on the rare earth restriction or else. And um maybe they will. I don't know. She doesn't seem like the kind of guy to just, you know, want to bend the knee. So, we'll see what happens. Um but the point is, you know, Trump shock is alive and well. that has yet really to work its way through the real economy. So there is if you know I'm not calling a recession because don't forget the money helicopters, but there's reason to be concerned about weakness. So that's still on the table. As far as the the record run here of silver, there's the reasons for concern are are different. I mean, I'm I'm long. I'm delighted to see silver finally reach a nominal uh all-time high and stay there. This is a big deal. Like the the 2011 spike or the 1980 spikes, those were up intraday right back down again afterwards. So this is already different. It's staying here. So you know, that's pretty exciting, pretty encouraging. On the other paw, it's not just there because of, you know, financial things or ddollarization or, you know, there's talk about maybe central banks are going to start buying silver. And a few oddities aside, I really don't think that's the case. This isn't a, you know, a Basel 3 thing, uh, the central banks are not the poor man. They don't need to worry about the poor man's gold. And silver tarnishes. They don't need to spend time polishing those bars in the basement. It's it's not as easy to to keep. It's bulkier and more temperamental than gold is. I just maybe I'm wrong. I don't see the central banks piling into silver. Um, but we do have right now a squeeze in London. there's not enough physical there right now. And so that's um you know it's it's not just driving things but it's it's why we have that backwardation. It's why spot is higher than the futures you know London versus comics. So it's possible that that sticks around for a long time but you know silver is still being mined quite actively. It's a byproduct. So I suspect that it won't stick around that long. Now the the it's also been declared a critical mineral at least by the United States. So it it's not as easy as just ah put some silver back on airplanes and send it over to London. Um so what am I saying here? What I'm saying is it's exciting to see silver run up like this, but it's actually a relief to me that there seems to be a a bonafide squeeze going on in the physical market right now that's causing it. And why that's a relief is because if silver was finally catching up to gold, you know, any gold or silver bull will tell you that silver usually lags and then catches up to gold at the end of the bull market. It more than catches up to gold. So if silver was doing that more than catches up bit right now, that would be a signal that this bull run is coming to an end. And as a fundamentalist, I don't think that's the case. As a long, I don't want that to be the case. Uh Mr. Market doesn't care what I want, but I'm relieved. That's why I'm relieved that what seems to be going on is a silver specific kurfuffle in London right now. And then I'm hopeful that we go on to a more regular march upwards. would be much better the for the longevity of this market. >> Well, we were speaking about silver being at all-time high in nominal terms. Obviously, if we wanted to get there um adjusted for inflation 1980, we're looking at around 200 plus. And that's using official government inflation statistics. >> The most conservative case, right? Every time I do that, people say, "Oh, it's the CP lie. Don't you know it's nonsense?" >> Of course, but if we use their number, they can't criticize us for it, >> right? So, you know, recently we've seen Bank of America call for $65 silver. I believe in 2026, uh there was a Market Watch published an article titled, "Bank of America now see $65 silver as price spike reduces London market to a state of seizure." So, are we now living in the real silver squeeze? you know, we had the the so-called retail crowd driven silver squeeze um back when silver went up to around $35 an ounce, I believe, and um and then came back down on the other side. Are we now living through the real physical squeeze of the silver market? And do you think we could see that real all-time high, that tripledigit silver price up ahead? >> Uh yes and yes. The the ultimate irony to me here is that, you know, silver bulls, they really tried and and they tried to organize. They're try they tried to sort of crowdsource a silver squeeze. They were there was more than one attempt and they all fizzled. It's just it's too big. There's not enough of us diehard hard money advocates, you know, people like you and I and even our audience, the entire audience, you know, we're such a tiny slice of the overall investment world, let alone the population at large. we just couldn't swing it. Um, but Donald Trump, love him or hate him, like he has actually manufactured a bonafide silver squeeze. Like there there is not enough physical in London right now, which you know, imagine if somebody had asked me or you or if you had talked about this with any of your guests a couple years ago and they predicted, you know, not enough bars in London, would you? What would you have said? What would you have thought? I don't I don't know. But it's it's amazing to see it happen and it and it's a byproduct. I don't think Trump intended for this. This wasn't designed to produce a silver squeeze. He included silver in the critical minerals list and he talked up all his tariffs and things and a lot of bullion left London and went to the US and now suddenly uh there's a squeeze going on. So uh that's real. It's and it's physical and it's it's kind of fun to see the you were polite enough to ask the second part of your question by saying could it to which I answered yes will it is a much more difficult question to answer and be right about so will it I don't know but could it yeah if if this squeeze continues and you know don't forget that the manufacturers the solar panel people and the electronics people who use silver in you know in their real world applications this isn't optional They can't just substitute aluminum or copper or something uh for these functions. Well, I guess you can make aluminum mirrors. Um but for the solar panels, you need the silver, right? So, uh there is a there is a I can't put a number on it. I want to say a probability because you know for a probability you have to have your ps and q's and divide them and get a ratio. We don't know what those numbers are. But there's not just a non-zero but I would say let's say a non-trivial possibility that as that physical supply demand continues and sorry as the physical demand continues from the actual real world users and not enough people are bringing in grandma's tea service right to supply that that we could see this we could see this melt up. So, could yes, could we see a a a CPI adjusted real all-time high? Yeah, we could. That could happen within a month or two. Will it? God only knows. You know, certainly not. I said the wolf. You know, it it could be that um the current surge has induced the various participants to change and uh it resolves itself soon. I I really don't know. and I wouldn't believe anybody who did say that. Anyway, >> the sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver Gold Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. Take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 3072649441 or by email at IanarchsGgo.com. Make sure to tell them of course that Commodity Culture sent you. And now back to the interview. I want to dive a little bit deeper into the factor that most silver is mined as a byproduct as opposed to a primary metal. Um, ramping up supply obviously is much more difficult in that scenario. walk us through how much silver is mined as a byproduct versus primary and how this affects the supply demand dynamics for the market. >> Right. Um so the most sensitive one here would be silver is a byproduct from gold obviously that you know they they occur together a lot. They're mined together and a gold miner right now is incented to ramp up his or her output anyway, right? So, so that miner will respond to the higher silver price and the higher gold price which are moving in the same direction. Um, but that's actually pretty small. The the base metals are a much larger fraction. I've I've I understand it's something like 60%. And if you if you pick them by the metal, the single highest producer of silver as a byproducts is actually copper. If you add lead and zinc together, which they commonly occur together, lead and zinc combined are the big one. Uh but if you add all of those together, lead, zinc, and copper, it's huge. This really is where most of the uh world's silver comes from. I think uh until recently, the Polish copper miner was the world's biggest producer of silver. And so that that tells you a lot. I mean, this is just one company, but it tells you about the structure of the market. So, uh for silver bulls, this is actually good news. It means okay even if the gold producers ramp up to meet the market um that will have a marginal impact on silver. Yes, it will produce more silver but not as much as if copper were going through the roof and copper producers were ramping up. And the even better news is that even if copper does go through the roof, which I do expect and I'm sure you'll ask about in due course, um these copper mines take a long time like a one big enough to matter. You know, there are little high-grade underground bits here and there, but they don't move the market. These great big, you know, mega pit projects that are where the world's the world's big copper supply come from, you know, those take year even if you have the permits, which can take years or even decades, right? Looking for a resolution there. um once you even have the permits it takes years to build these gigantic mega projects. So you know copper could go to the moon I mean tomorrow um and it would have zero impact on the silver supply right away. Now in due course though it would in due course is especially if the safe haven demand were to go down you know Trump fixes everything and the world is happy happy joy joy and you know I don't see that as a likely outcome but if it happened right and monetary safe haven demand went down for silver at the same time that industrial output was cranking up that would actually be bearish for silver um not a concern I have right now right now it's the opposite I I'm I'm the only shadow on the horizon for me other than you know hockey stick always calls for caution but in terms of market fundamentals I'm a fundamentalist not a chartist is silver does have its industrial side as a as a use not as a byproduct on the use side and if Trump shock does cause more economic weakness um that turns into a headwind for silver that does not affect gold so that's something to watch out for that's not a call it's not a prediction cuz don't forget the money helicopter But it's something to watch for. If it materializes, then it's reason for caution. >> Let's talk about the silver mining sector for a moment because the SIL ETF has been on quite a tear year to date up around 120%. Are you a buyer of silver miners here? Are you on the sidelines? And as FOMO starts to build in the sector, as inevitably happens, especially if we reach a mania stage, what are the signs you would be looking out for that it's time to take profits or exit the sector entirely? >> Well, that's five questions. Um, >> yeah, >> first one is yes, I am. Well, I am and I am not. I'm I'm not buying any gold or silver stocks right now. I've I've for the first time in my career as the independent speculator I have yanked my shopping list completely just because you know the better ones they're if not at 52- week highs you know all-time highs you know they're they're the hockey stick thing and the whole idea is to buy low sell high now I'm not saying it can't or won't go higher I'm just saying this is not a buy low moment and markets fluctuate so I I I've never done it before I have no shopping list this month Um, that said, I'm already long, you know, so I'm not feeling any FOMO, right? I've got tons of gold and silver in my portfolio already. So, if it keeps screaming upwards, fine by me. I'm fine with that. Um, but yeah, I would it would be very difficult for me to say to anybody who's brand new to the space, just coming in, sure, fine. It's got to keep going to the moon. Bye bye. Bye. You know, you you can hurt a lot of people doing that, Jesse. I mean even if it does eventually go higher if if the next leg next big leg is actually down those Johnny come lately they will panic they will sell they will have bought high and sold low and they will be hurt and I just I don't want to encourage that to happen so no no shopping list in gold and silver this month that said is there a case to pile in actually there is not as a disciplined speculator I am not doing this I'm just saying if if you've got Vegas money, you want to gamble, instead of instead of going to Vegas and pulling the slot machine, there is a chance that we go into the mania phase. Like the next big move could be the mania phase. If that happens, gold and silver stocks will go much higher. And and by the way, the Johnny Gum lately, they'll pile into what Doug Casey used to call the go-to stocks first, not the crappy little juniors. So you could get more alpha ironically on the bigger stocks in that mania phase because that's where the dumb money, pardon me, but you know the Johnny come lately, that's where they'll pile into. They'll they'll say, "Oh, what's a gold company?" And they'll do a Google search and you and I both know and the audience knows who's going to come up, right? What's a silver company? Right? They'll they'll find them. So, um there is a case to be made for those with a stakes for sorry um for a a hankering for high stakes gambling. I mean there is a there could be an explosive move could be the next thing an explosive move upwards could be the next thing that hits this market. So if if you like gambling on that sort of thing I'm not going to say no. I'm saying I'm not doing it because you know I'm I'm not trying to swing for the bleachers here. I am trying to consistently as reliably as possible make money over time. And the way to do that is to buy low and sell high, not to buy high and hope to sell higher. And and to the I think I lost track of your five questions, but I think the ending question was basically when to sell high. >> Yeah. >> Um and uh I'm not smart enough to figure that out. I don't know when the market is going to top. Even my mentors Rick Rule, Doug Casey, none of them claim to know that. I think anybody, no offense to any chartists in the audience, you know, anybody that's convinced that their Fibonacci this that or the other says, "Oh, it's got to go down now or up now." I think that's dangerous. It's worth taking under advisement, but to believe it like the gospel is dangerous. I think so. What I do, and we've talked about this before, I think Jesse, is I have a strategy I call the upside maximizer. That's a free report on our website if you don't mind me mentioning it. And it's like a a stop-loss except for instead of a stop-loss, it's a trailing ratcheting stop on my wins so that I don't have to know when the market tops. If things roll over, then I get triggered. And at the very least, I can recover my initial investment and and be risk-f free. or if things are looking scary, I can, you know, take a lot more all of my profits and leave just, you know, or if they're all getting triggered, you know, it's not just this company, but like the market is rolling over, I might be much more aggressive and and like close positions and exit in a bigger way um to be able to and then I'll have cash to buy back in if it's just a dip or I'll be out of harm's way if the next real move is a bare market. Not predicting that. I'm not calling that. I'm saying I don't know. But I have a method for making sure that all these big wins we're all enjoying don't slip through my claws. >> Great. Well, I'll put a link to that article in the description so people can check it out. I want to pivot to gold here. Um, obviously ripping as well as we've been discussing. some people pointing out by technical indicators it's overbought on RSI and some other things, but you're a fundamental guy and I think a lot of the fundamentals could potentially be trumping those technical indicators, particularly as we're entering unprecedented territory when it comes to government debt and deficits, money printing, all of these sorts of things that we always discuss on this show. What are your general thoughts here on the gold market? Do you think gold has more resilience over the long term than silver because that industrial component is is removed and at the moment the monetary aspects behind gold seem to be so strong? >> Uh yes and no. I mean industrial use cases are not a bad thing and and yes they can be volatile but ultimately I see silver as a relatively cheaper than gold still. It's, you know, if if if I can't say gold is is a buy low, sell high opportunity, at least silver is only nominally at all-time highs, whereas gold has already reached real alltime highs or at least real, you know, according to the CPI. Um so that so there's a different case there and and the additional tailwinds from the industrial use you know you know the Trump agenda is inflationary Europe's remilitarization is inflationary you know the global average is inflationary which is good for silver too so I I've been saying I see silver as the win-win metal because it gets the benefit from the monetary side the debasement trade you know isn't it striking Jesse that Wall Street has caught on to to monetary debasement The debasement trade has become the latest buzzword on mainstream financial media. You know, gold bugs are like, what have we been saying for decades, right? But now it's become the trendy thing like silver benefits from that as well as the electrification trend and these other factors. So I, you know, people call me Darth silver and all that stuff, but I'm actually quite bullish on silver. Um, but to to the to the question on the gold on the fundamentals, yes, it could go higher. This isn't something new and all inspiring for me to tell you, but the central bank gold buying is absolutely a gamecher and and I think it's irreversible. That is a one-way paradigm shift. It's not going back. The Chinese and the Russians certainly are not going to suddenly decide to trust trust Washington and New York with their financial well-being, right? So, that's not going away. And there's some people say, well, you know, how much gold can they buy? They you know, at some point the central bank gold buying will run out. will it? Well, my answer to that is how much money can central banks print? You know, when they can't print anymore, maybe they can't buy anymore. Remember, they don't have to buy gold in dollars. You know, China is the world's biggest gold producer now, not South Africa, right? So, uh I just I just see that as a very very not just bullish, but um downside mitigating change that's solid. I I if if gold corrects If gold were to drop $1,000 an ounce, Jesse, the stocks, of course, would get creamed. People would be panicking. There would be blood in the streets. But that would take us down to over $3,000 an ounce. The actual business of make producing the stuff from the ground would be printing money, like literally making money, hauling it out of the ground, real money, right? and the and the better projects and the developers out there, if we crashed to $3,000 an ounce, those projects would still be very high margin. So, with with the fundamentals strongly supportive of gold, the central bank buying, the inflationary outlooks, all this stuff is supportive. And if we got a little correction, I don't know, it would be I'd be nervous about still buying high. But if we got a big correction that scared the be Jesus out of the market, I would see that as an absolute gift. I would pile in. Now, there's a there's a nonzero chance that if that happened, it could be 2011, right? And the next we could go into a bare market for some years. Um, so if I did buy that dip, you know, more than a dip, if I thought, oh, you know, the market's giving me a gift. I'm going to buy low here, and then we go into a bare market for years, I would go underwater if I did that. I think the odds are the other way, though, because of the central bank buying, these other things we're talking about. I think even if we had some big panic, you know, people, you know, started to take profits and that triggered other profit taking and that cascaded into a big event, I think the odds are that that would be a buying opportunity. And if it did turn into 2011 all over again, well, guess what? If you bought at the top in 2011, you're more than 2x that right now in gold itself. So for the disciplined patient speculator, even that event would be survivable. I would I would like to avoid, as I was saying earlier, you know, getting people to buy high and panic and sell low. But I'm telling you what I would do, Jesse. I you know, I think the answer to your question is fundamentals make me very bullish. The hockey stick makes me nervous. I honestly don't know what happens next. A little wobble probably wouldn't get me to pile back in. A big one, I it would. And if it turned out that I have to be patient for a time, then I'd be patient for a time. But my expectation would be that if we had a big correction, it would be a very sharp Vshape on the other side cuz reality would assert itself. And by the way, I think the central banks would swoop in big time if there was a big correction. I I think it's unlikely that we see something of the magnitude of a thousand correction, which is less than a 25% correction right now. >> Well, let's shift over to the copper market. as I know you're bullish there. As you mentioned earlier, some interesting price action recently as we saw the Trump administration a little while back. Once again, the Trump shock being very real, which has been one of your themes that seems to be playing out. We saw a surge in the price on announced copper tariffs only to see it collapse down on the other side when the tariffs were announced to be on copper wiring and some very specific copper products. Um, but still above $5 a pound as we sit here today. What are your current thoughts on the overall state of the copper market and and how you see it moving forward? >> Well, every year there's some disaster somewhere. Uh and you know, it astounds me. I understand that, you know, a mine disaster is unpredictable and how do you factor that into your model? So, any given disaster can't be predicted. I get that. But it seems like there's one or two every year. And so why don't these engineering firms that put out their supply and demand forecasts, why don't they just like have a I don't know a blanket 10% less than projected supply? Like you you ask them, how do you know that's that this many tons of copper is going to be produced? Well, that's what the companies are guiding. What I'm saying is companies routinely fail to meet guidance. And even when they were on track to meet guidance, you get a Cobb Panama or you get a landslide or you get a sinkhole or right something happens, right? A flood in a mine. And it just so happens that right now um we have three significant copper mine um failures or disappointments or problems that are significantly constraining this year's supply in ways that are beyond what was modeled. So, you know, people are like, "Well, Lobo, if you're saying the economy is weak, why is Dr. Copper doing so well?" Well, it's not because the economy is doing so well. It's because the physical supply has actually been more constrained this year than expected. So, I've actually been rethinking my thesis on this basis that the supply constraint is big enough that it is already offsetting the economic weakness in my view and it could continue to do so. I've been asking myself, you know, self, maybe maybe we're not going to get that buying opportunity in copper. On the other hand, as we speak, just this last Friday with the latest round of Trump shock, you know, copper fell off a small cliff. So, wasn't a big one, right? And it's recovered mostly, but it tells us that that mechanism is still there. That if there's more economic scary news, Dr. Copper will retreat. That's the what the latest data is telling us. So, this makes me patient. You know, I was before last Friday, I was really thinking maybe I should go ahead and pull out my shopping list and start picking away at that. And maybe for the patient people, the people who know that they have the stomach to see it through if they buy something now and it drops 50% before going up again. You know, that famous Rick Ro thing like you've interviewed him. How many times has he told you that his biggest wins, they all had 50% draw downs before they became 10 baggers or whatever, right? If you have the guts to do that and stay that trade and not panic out and, you know, buy high, sell low, maybe you don't wait, maybe you don't fool around with all this trying to figure out where the best buying opportunity is. U personally, I'm very reluctant to give that kind of guidance because I know a lot of people will get hurt if if things do go bad. Long story short, what I'm saying is the very latest data tells us that copper will retreat if there's more scary news. So, you got to ask yourself, punk, how many bullets do I have left in the gun? No. Um, are there is there more likeliness of scary news in the remainder of this year? And I'm looking at what's going on in the world. I'm I'm seeing plenty of opportunity for scary news. So, I'm willing to wait a bit more. And I hope I get this buying opportunity. If not, I've been piling up cash and I'll just buy anyway. And I'm I'm that convinced of the long-term thesis, the go, sorry, the copper bull thesis that if I don't get this buying opportunity, I'll still have plenty of opportunity to make money going forward. Um, and one last quick thing, I had I've had a couple people write in and say, "Oh, I've heard about um you know, there's new substitutes for copper. There's new conductors coming to the market. You know, maybe maybe your multi-deade bull case for copper is wrong. Okay, maybe. But Doug Casey himself taught me never to bet on science projects, right? I don't And and you know, quoting our friend Rick Rule, never confuse the inevitable with the imminent. I'm not sure this is inevitable. It's still a science project. But even if it was inevitable, that doesn't make it imminent. It certainly doesn't make it happening now. And so I think that we're still in for a multi-year, if not multi-deade, copper bull market. And if new technology, new um substitutes were to come into play, we would absolutely see that a mile off coming. It, you know, the news would be out. We would we would see the press releases. We would see and remember even, you know, tests and and pilot programs, that's not commercial adoption. We will see this coming and we'll be able to adjust accordingly. >> I want to end on uranium equities today absolutely ripping many of them up double digits. Uh a theme that's actually been >> impressing me. I wanted to buy. I was I was a buyer. >> Um well it should be noted which I posted on X. I sold my initial position in energy fuels because I felt it was getting ahead of itself and it's ripping 30% today. So there there we go. Um, I think that's more due to the rare earth component of that particular company, but nonetheless, we're seeing a resurgence. It wasn't that long ago, what was that maybe June or July of this year that everybody was throwing in the towel on X, claiming the thesis is dead. Would the uranium bulls please come out and explain themselves? People were making posts like this at that time. And since then, it's basically been all upside. We've seen massive gains. Now, a lot of that, however, I feel has been driven by headline news. Once again, Trump shock coming out of the Trump administration that they are wanting to fasttrack uranium mining projects. The Department of Energy coming out and tweeting something like, "We have the uranium, we have the will, we're going to bring on the new nuclear." >> It's also become an AI play. >> Yes. Which is >> which is a very much of a mixed blessing. >> Yes. Because I don't see nuclear energy being a near near-term beneficiary of AI data center buildout. I think that's going to be more natural gas, but it has gotten wrapped up in the whole AI conversation as well. So, I feel like a lot of these dramatic gains that have been coming recently are more headline driven and less so than fundamentals. Although the fundamentals extraordinarily strong, we've been in a supply deficit since around 2018 and that deficit continues. We need much more uranium and mines are facing all sorts of problems similar to what you were talking about with copper. We're we're seeing you know companies misguidance. We're seeing issues bringing production online etc etc. So what are your thoughts on the uranium sector at present? Would you be cautious at this point seeing as so many of these gains do seem driven by the AI race and headlines coming out of the Trump administration? >> Yeah, that's um good news and bad news. same same news as both things. Just real quick, I mean, you ran over in your in your buildup here, but it's really worth pointing out that it was reasonable last year to ask if high prices would cure high prices. When uranium went to triple digits, there were a lot of high margin projects just waiting for shovels to hit dirt. The world's two largest producers had voluntarily, like OPEC, had voluntarily cut back output. And it was reasonable to think that that would ramp back up again. And it was fair to ask, you know, is this sustainable with all this lowhanging fruit around? And we now have an answer to that question. You know, the lowhanging fruit has proven very prickly, very hard to pick. Even the two biggest and the best have moved the goalposts and you know who they are to your audience, right? And the juniors, the smaller ones, all kinds of problems. I don't think a single one of them has ramped up according to initial expectations. They've either moved the gold post or lower the production during ramp up. A couple of them haven't even been able to build the mine or or get going again and and not all of them due to coup d'etas in Africa. Uh right, it has been very difficult. So the thesis here and meanwhile it's like if not every day then every week there's some new demand. You know the Chinese want to double their reactor fleet. The BRICS countries are going forward. Even Europe is going forward. Like the demand case is so solid. I I've said it before. Yes, this is a trade that can literally melt down on us if we have no another Chernobyl scale event, but those are very rare. I mean, arguably, it's only happened once. Fukushima was a tsunami. Three-mile island was a nothing burger, right? There's only been one, and it was arguably more about Soviet stupidity than nuclear engineering. But anyway, so the case is really, really solid. And and the AI hype now and the administration, you know, the my my problem like as as a long I'm already long. I I so I'm benefiting from this. I'm fine with that. I'm not feeling any FOMO, but the case is so exciting that I would like to have more I'd like to have more uranium in my portfolio. And the share prices are just been really stubborn. Like we've gotten not just the correction a while ago, but we've had since uranium carved out a bottom this year, it's corrected sharply twice, including last week and the stocks just didn't budge. I mean, you know, maybe a 1% wiggle or something. We haven't gotten the sale that I was hoping for. So, but then again, if you believe that AI is hyped up, then that's the good news, right? That the bad news is that it makes us vulnerable. But the good news is that that can create buying opportunities. Remember when that Deep Seek thing came out and suddenly everybody it's like, "Oh, AI could be more efficient, so we won't need more power." Like, what are you smoking? You make it more efficient, you'll just use more of it, not less. But, you know, the AI was icing on top of the cake anyway. We needed more power anyway. So, there was this huge sell-off of all things AI on that Deep Seek thing. And that included spot uranium, and that included uranium stocks. And and in my view, that was an absolute gift from Mr. Market. It was the most stupid wrongheaded sell-off that I've seen in a long time. And it was a spectacular buying opportunity. If you had missed the uranium bull market before and the great screaming ride up to to triple digits, that was your chance to hop back on at prices like before that rally up. It was a So, I'm I'm long so I'm not feeling FOMO. I'm not chasing anything now, but I'm aware that in a market like this where things can sell off for stupid reasons, maybe we'll get lucky and there'll be another opportunity to to do something like that. Some I don't know, it could easily be something in the AI space or it could just be economic shock. You know, Dr. Copper wiggles uranium itself is very recession resistant, but the spot price can fluctuate. you know, when when the energy sector so-called sells off, spot uranium can drop and if it drops enough, we might get a a buying opportunity. So, rather like gold and silver, you know, I would not I am not a uranium stock buyer today. I'm long and I'm happy. I'm not feeling FOMO. But if I was new to the space, I think this is even more likely to see fluctuations, significant fluctuations than gold. And so if I was new to the space, I would wait for that. Um, if I was absolutely convinced the bottom is is in, it can only go up from here, then I would probably buy the metal itself via ETF rather than one of the companies. The companies are more volatile and and that way I'd at least have a little finger or a claw in the pie as the case may be and and and relieve the FOMO. Um, but this is not the time to chase things. Not in a market that's so volatile. I mean, Chemico, when that Deepseek thing came out, it it went screaming down to a 52- week low, and within a month or two, it was at all-time highs again, and that was this year, right? On on stupid boneheaded misinterpretation of news. In a market like that, why should we be feeling FOMO? Like, markets fluctuate. That That's my take. Well, speaking of your take, tell us about the independent speculator, both the uh free version of the newsletter and the my take paid service. >> Okay. Well, the digest is a free weekly letter. Um we ask you to register on our website to see that because we had problems with spam and all this stuff with the emails. So now you you get one email notification per week. We do not spam you. Uh very simple. and you can see how I think and decide whether or not I might be able to help you with your due diligence on that front. Very briefly, the independent speculator is built around my own personal portfolio. It's what I'm doing with my own money. Uh, and my take is actually not really a newsletter at all. It's it's very misunderstood. It's a it's a database. You can slice it, dice it. You know, if you want silver junior producers not in Mexico, like you can get that list, something like that. Um, and I don't always get things right, but I am independent. There is no amount any company can pay me to give them a thumbs up when they deserve a thumbs down. So, check it out. >> I will put a link to the independent speculator.com in the description below. Lobo, as always, great conversation. Thank you for coming on. >> Thank you, Jesse. >> Thank you for joining us today. Our sponsor, Arc Silver Gold, Osmium, has some great prices on gold and silver bullion. They are on screen right now. To take advantage, reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 307264-9441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com. And make sure to tell them that Commodity Culture sent you. And be sure to pick up your Commodity Culture merch, all backed by a 100% quality guarantee. Link is in the description below. And I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up to date with the latest episodes.