Silver Is Being Drained – The Paper Market Is Collapsing | Alasdair Macleod
Summary
Precious Metals: Gold and silver are surging, with silver driven by industrial demand and a squeeze in derivatives versus scarce physical supply.
Copper Outlook: Dr. Copper signals accelerating demand from electrification and infrastructure, with prices suppressed in fiat terms but poised to re-rate.
Derivatives & Exchanges: COMEX/LBMA mechanics, EFP arbitrage, high lease rates, and China’s export licensing are straining liquidity and elevating counterparty risk.
De-dollarization: Increasing yuan-based settlement, Shanghai Gold Exchange infrastructure, and potential gold backing suggest a gradual shift away from USD dominance.
Debt & Equity Bubble: A historic valuation gap and record margin leverage set the stage for higher bond yields to trigger an equity drawdown, potentially in 2026.
Fed Response: Anticipated aggressive QE, including possible equity ETF purchases, aims to stabilize markets but risks further eroding fiat purchasing power.
Japan & Carry Trade: Rising JGB yields threaten carry trades and reduce Japanese institutions’ demand for U.S. Treasuries, amplifying global bond market volatility.
Transcript
Gold and silver are marking record highs. Silver has completely exploded, trading around $75 an ounce as we record this. Volatility has picked up like you would not believe. But what is really happening? Let's take a look under the bonnet. Let's take a look under the hood here of what is happening in the world of commodities. Copper is also putting in a rally. One of the strongest dec runs in decades here for the copper for the base metal but also platinum and palladium need to be mentioned here as well. Lot lots going on. Is the world financial system falling apart? What is it telling us? I've invited a phenomenal guest back onto the program to discuss all this. His name is Alistair Mloud. He's a Alistair Mloud Substack. You know him. You should follow him. But uh before I switch over to my guest, you should follow us. Hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously and we much much appreciate the support. Now Alistair as always it is great to welcome you back on the program. It's good to see you. >> It's nice to be back Kai. >> Yeah lot lots to discuss in very very short time frame here Alistair. We need to make sense of the world. I mentioned it in the intro. Gold and silver are rallying. Lots going on. One topic I haven't mentioned in the intro that we need to touch on is really the the Japanese and the yen carry trade. But uh before we get to that, cuz it's ultra complex, let's to take a look at gold and silver. Gold record high all-time highs. Not as explosive as silver though. Um what what do you make of the run in the precious metals in particular right now, Alistair? What do you see under the hood? What do you see under the bonnet? >> Yeah. Well, I mean, the fundamental difference, I think, between uh the market situation in gold and the situation in silver is that gold is actually quite a different market. Um, obviously it's a monetary metal. The thing I would say about silver is it's not being priced as a monetary metal. It's actually being priced as an industrial metal. And uh, okay, we look at the gold silver ratio and all the rest of it and get excited when it sort of starts collapsing, which it has been doing, which is very exciting for the bulls. Fine. But the reality in silver is that it's industrial demand which is driving it. And um here you have a problem because uh you have the pricing being in uh derivative markets basically but the demand being for physical and it's that interplay which is suddenly creating a crisis for um those dealing uh in in um derivative markets because what is happening is that uh people who need uh silver for industrial purposes are being forced to go into the derivative markets and in the case of comx stand for delivery. I mean this year so far around about 15,000 tons of silver have been stood for delivery. Now we don't know precisely who all these uh stand for deliveries are but you can be pretty sure there is a very large element um if not almost entirely uh due to um you know in industrial entities uh needing this for manufacturing photovoltaic cells for um uh electric vehicles for whatever whatever. So um silver suddenly is a needed commodity and uh the fact that um commodities generally are stirring you also see the squeeze if you like on um uh derivative markets in the platinum group metals um that's been very very noticeable and also copper Dr. copper. But what this actually tells us is that over considerable periods of time, distortions in the fiat currency system have built up and the distortions are really very very evident in derivative markets. If you look at the price of um particularly copper in gold, prices in gold, gold is real money. its value does obviously flu fluctuate but not very much over long periods of time. Now if you look at the uh price of copper measured in gold then it's about 18% of its long-term value. In other words it has been suppressed while at the same time it appears to be rising in fiat currency terms. What this again tells us is that the suppression has been far greater than um you would think and consequently the rise in the value of copper in the markets is likely to accelerate substantially and that's before we talk about the fundamentals in the situation. Now Dr. Copper is very important because like silver this is a demanded metal in this new world. This new world of electronics, electrics, um power generation, I mean the whole thing. So this is um if you like a pretty good indicator that the distortions which have been put into commodities by collapsing feared values um those distortions are coming to an end. Now the problem as far as uh derivative markets are concerned is they're not really in a position to handle this. If you look at London in silver then basically there's no liquidity and this is why the lease rates spike up. I think it was early in October they spiked up to over 30%. At that time um there was a a backquidation between London and Comx. That backquidation seems to more or less disappeared but lease rates are still holding up. We're looking at sort of 7 8% that sort of figure the situation has been made worse for the derivative boys because China is restricting exports of silver. The reason this is important is that because China has been managing the price for some considerable time. It's done this I mean you know uh you and I have attended conferences. You run conferences and one of these conferences back about I don't know 10 12 years ago something like that. Uh I spoke to a bunch of um silver mining and silver exploration companies and I asked them um you know how do you turn your silver dory into um into wages and uh you know to pay the energy bills and the answer was quite simple. They said that the man from Trafagora or Glenor came round he valued it. Um told the bank which was presumably JP Morgan uh and uh on that basis the account was credited at JP Morgan and um the dory was then shipped off. Where was it shipped off to? Well, we don't know but we assume it's China. Of course it was China. China not only is today the largest the second largest uh mining nation by silver output but it imports dory not just silver dory but also other metal dories from which it extracts silver bearing in mind that over half of silver from mining operations comes from nons mining operations the result is that that China has built up a huge great stockpile of of silver secretly I mean it's It's, you know, just you you can work this this out for yourself. It's quite simple. But what China is doing from um the beginning of next year, in other words, in a week's time is it's introducing a new licensing export licensing regime which is designed to restrict the quantity of silver flowing out of China elsewhere. And this is happening at a time when India it is roughly where China was maybe 20 30 years ago. It is booming. I mean it is rapidly industrializing and its demand for silver is off the charts. Where do conglomerates like Reliance Industries go for their silver? Well, the answer is you know they go they they go to the um refiners and refiners say back of the queue mate. [laughter] They go into London and they buy it off the bullion banks uh who will sell a forward contract and then they stand for delivery. They go to Comx and they buy futures and they stand for delivery. So markets are being drained of liquidity and the problem in London is that uh you know you look at the uh numbers in the silver vault and you think oh there's quite a lot of silver there. Yeah, but it's all ETF silver and um you know the the it's calculated that the non-ETF silver which some people think is the float is around about 140 million ounces but a lot of that is actually um in firm hands. It's not available in the market and this is why the lease rates rise and I make a further point. I mean people investors look at commodity prices and they see these commodity prices uh um rising and they think it's rather like let's say dealing in Nvidia or Microsoft or you know one of these things um or even like dealing in a mining stock and they think well you know it's rises so much you're going to get sellers because obviously um you know when the price rises it rises to the point where supply comes in and satis satisfies the demand, you know. So that's the price level. And when you get there, what do you do? You take your profits. Yeah. But this is not what goes on in commodity markets. There is not that liquidity. The traffic is one way. It's all producers, all you know, not well, not so much producers, but it is the it is the industry which is demanding this stuff, and they're all demanding it at exactly the same time. Meanwhile, mind supply is inflexible. And then to have China turn around and say, "Well, we've told you the story on rare earths. Now, [snorts] telling you the story on silver and antinomy was was was another one this licensing thing." In other words, we're being squeezed. We are being very badly squeezed. And the thought that I mean today as we speak Kai um you know the volatility we saw silver overnight go to um what sort of 83 84 something like that and then it shot down I'm looking at my screen here to 74 and it's currently 75. Yeah I mean volatility yeah of course but has any silver been shaken out? Very very little. Very little. So this is going to march on unless of course there is a change in the demand from industrial users. So you know the volatility that we see in these commodities is completely different from the sort of volatility that you experience in stocks and it's a big big mistake to confuse the two and I think as a you know to sort of [laughter] round off this bit really what we are seeing is the demise of the um derivative system if you like which in the past has been expanded to satisfy demand. I mean basically financial demand for commodities uh and therefore kept a lid on prices that is coming to an end and the consequences of that I think will be far higher prices not just for precious metals base metals but commodities as a whole >> and what does that tell you? It tells you that the purchasing power of the fiat currencies are going down. I think those are two topics. Let's let's let's keep them separate for a minute because I want to come to the monetary side here in in a minute as well, Alistister. But allow me one very simple followup. Why now? >> Well, the thing has been I mean the timing the timing is is is is politics I suppose and in this case geopolitics. Um I mean I would say that President Trump has actually created this problem for America. uh um you know with his big beautiful tariffs or whatever you call them. Um and not only that but he's a spend thrift. So the idea that um any sort of budgetary control would come in um you know dismiss that completely. Now look at it from the outside. You know you're the Chinese government. You look at this and you know he's monkeying around. He's you know he was been threatening 140% tariffs and all you know okay he climbed down from that pretty quickly. Why? Because we China decided to restrict exports of rare earths of which America basically has virtually none. And they, you know, America needs it for her electronics industries. She he needs she needs it for defense purposes and all the rest of it. I mean, you know, and there was a reality check. Now, not only that, but on the monetary side, and you can't separate out the two, I'm afraid. on the monetary side. Um they see what he's doing to destroy the purchasing power of the dollar. And this is happening at a time when China, Russia, Brits, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, all these members are moving away, I mean gradually admittedly from uh using the dollar. They can't do away with it completely, but in terms of trade settlements between them, they can. They've got an alternative now. They've got um the yuan and not only that but uh the um Chinese set up Shanghai gold exchange vault in Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia and I am sure that uh the whole of the Middle East and also Southeast Asia is going to start settling trade imbalances in yuan which eventually will be backed by gold. I think we're seeing the setup, if you like, to replace the dollar when the dollar goes to zero. That's the way the Chinese are looking at it. I'm convinced of it. >> Monetary we one give me one more minute before we get to the monetary side there. Um, real quick, Alice, just I want to discuss pricing of the commodities itself. Like silver um, in particular is being discussed uh, on Shanghai. It's much higher even today as we've seen the massive volatility. Silver was holding up over $80 an ounce in Yuan. Um, where does the pricing difference come from? Can you explain that to us a little bit? How does that work? LBMA, Comx versus Shanghai, why is there such a big difference? >> Well, I mean, and I mean, the thing the thing is that until uh these new licensing um rules came in um and um you know, okay, they haven't quite come in, but it's obviously changing everybody's behavior in China. There was arbitrage effectively between China and London. um when uh the differential the price differential got great enough um London was able to suck in China supply silver supplies from China. I mean that's what we're told. We don't actually know but um you know something may come out of the trade statistics which incidentally I don't look at but um so you can see that an arbitrage would sort out these things and of course you've also got between um comx and London you've got the exchange for physical facility whereby um uh bullion banks and traders can take out small difference differences between uh you know the price on comix and the price in London. So you do have these um uh uh mechanisms but the problem is greater than that. The problem is that everybody outside China and indeed in China wants physical silver. So arbitrage actually is irrelevant. The shortage is in comx, the shortage is in London and the shortage is also in uh um uh in Shanghai. So the idea that you can get an orderly market whereby um uh arbitrage sorts out um you know the diff different prices on different markets. That's basically I don't think working anymore. I mean it's obviously working between London and uh and New York. But I think I think China's rather falling out of this one. I think they're becoming a large internal market. So um if you got a large internal market then obviously prices are going to have a degree of independence from international values. >> It'll attract a lot more outside capital too if you price it more attractively right um meaning higher. So the the flows accelerate usually. Um Aliser like we're we're missing coot data meaning commitment of trader reports. They're all delayed by six seven weeks. How how do you factor that into it? like not being able to see what the the big institutions are doing here on the long and short side in the commodity space like how how important is that information to you? How is that murking the waters here? >> I think it's in in a sense it's it it's not as important as you'd think. Um they have been updating a commitment of traders numbers. I mean we're talking about US commitment of traders numbers and um I think we're sort of couple of weeks behind in the moment. Uh the only thing that's interesting um if you look at silver is that the managed money bit uh you know managed money net longs is moderate if you like but you can get that number really by looking at the open interest on comx open interest on comix and silver is down while the price is up you know is that that tells you everything you need to know there is a squeeze if you like on comx the um uh you know the managed money category In other words, hedge funds basically are not playing this. They rarely aren't. Now, they have been going into gold recently, but that's relatively recent. I think over the last couple of weeks, open interest has actually risen quite sharply. It's not overbought on that measure yet. >> But you can see that um you know, gold might be val uh vulnerable to a little bit of a shakeout from now and then. Um so I'm sure that the uh bullion banks will try and uh well you know the trading desks anyway will try and shake out and trade if you like um uh gold but they're very restricted on silver for the reasons that we've been discussing. gold is a is, you know, that's the granddaddy of markets. And I think the interesting thing is that um at the LBMA conference at the end of October in Kyoto, the straw poll of attendees uh reckoned that gold in, you know, by the time the next conference would be just under $5,000. Now, that tells me that they've basically got balanced books. Uh now the balance is obviously in derivatives. This is not a balance in physical. It's derivatives. And it's an important point to understand. If you get counterparty risk escalating in derivatives, then that itself is likely to drive down total value of derivatives, open interest if you like on comx and um at the same time increase demand for physical. So, you know, we're on the cusp of something changing here even though the system reckons that it doesn't have a problem in gold because it's short comx long London. So, what's to worry about? Ah, but the problem is if you get an increase in demand for the physical then Houston there is a problem. But that is ahead of us. We're already seeing this in silver uh and silver which is um a more restricted market um you know quite clearly. I mean I was looking at um you know the the information on swaps and I think the swaps are short of about 10 billion dollars worth of silver. That's just one category. And of course the other problem swaps have is that the other categories the producers and all the rest of it. I mean they must be looking at this sort of price rising. They know what China's doing. You know, these these guys aren't fools. So, what do they do? Are they going to hedge their production in the market? No. What's the point? [clears throat] You know, which throws the emphasis back on the swaps. I mean, the financialization of derivatives, I think, is going to turn out to be a huge huge mistake. Huge mistake. >> It'll blow up in their face. And I think we're starting to see that there there were rumors and I'm not sure if you heard the same thing. I'm going a bit on a tangent here because I want to get to the monetary side, but I heard a rumor just this morning that apparently a bank blew up in the US already because they dipped uh it apparently the Fed had to dip into the repo facility and push additional liquidity towards that bank although no name has been mentioned. So >> well I I would I would say on that that that you know the Fed and the US Treasury uh do have the responsibility to ensure that this sort of information doesn't get out. >> Um so I think what we're talking about is a rumor. I I wouldn't be surprised, you know, to hear these rumors and I wouldn't be surprised to see um counterparty risk escalating in derivatives because, you know, if the derivative if outstanding derivatives are contracting at a rate, then obviously counterparty risk is going to increase. But the reason that they won't allow anyone to fail is because uh these banks have [clears throat] um counterparty relations not just in in silver but across a whole plethora of derivatives over the counter derivatives. And incidentally, I looked at the uh December uh bank participation report. There are five US banks who basically are net long of silver. Net long. That's you know I'm talking derivatives here. If you look however at the I think it was 17 foreign banks that's where the deficit is. So what we have I think is a situation where they're short on comx and they're getting squeezed in London. So yeah, there must be a number of these guys in in difficulty. Um we just have to pray that they get rescued without us really knowing about it. I mean I I don't you know I look in in our community we have lots of people who absolutely hate the derivatives and all the rest of it and you know but I mean don't don't don't [laughter] uh um you know go for what you wish for in this sense because it does no one any good just be patient. I think if the if the markets adjust in a in an orderly fashion and it will need government intervention to ensure that it is orderly then I think that serves the interests of everybody. >> Absolutely. We we've been sort of touching on the monetary side already because it's sort of like we're blurring the lines already on topics here. We're moving to the monetary side here now. Alistister and maybe we'll start off with a bit of a pointed question. Gold and silver are rallying, but none of the other asset classes you would assume in a monetary reset scenario have moved much. And I mean, the bond market, the 10-year yield somewhat flat since the last rate decision or anything actually. Uh the Dixie, yes, it's trending a little lower, but still at 98 points, not a massive move. Um what did I say? Dixie, S&P 500 is the other one. The the ma major indices, the stock market here, they're all fairly stable, right? they're moving sideways right now. Um, so no major like reason for concern from those asset classes. Um, so is this just a storm in the water glass that we're looking at or is there more to it and that the other asset class just haven't reacted yet? I think I think uh you have to um understand that we are in a debt bubble and what a debt bubble does is it drives up borrowing rates because the risk of repayment obviously escalates uh sorry of non-reayment the risk of default uh government default which basically is you know money printing uh increases the whole time. So, you know, if you're a foreigner buying dollars and buying US treasuries, you're going to be looking at um what are my dollars going to be worth in a year's time, um and you're going to want compensation for that in the form of a higher interest rate if you think that the purchasing power of the dollar is going to be lower in a year's time than it is today. That's really what drives bond yields. And obviously, the longer you go, the more volatile the yields are. So uh you're going to require compensation for that volatility as well. So this is the situation that we have. Um I I think um we also got to understand that the other side of a debt bubble is a credit bubble because uh these are two things on a balance sheet. One equals always equals the other. So where's the credit bubble? Well, it's quite obviously in equities and not in bonds. Bond values actually have been declining while equity values have been rising and the disparity in valuation is the greatest we have in recorded history. I believe it is even greater than it was in 1929 when finally Wall Street topped out and collapsed um topped out in September 29. We've also got a similar background to the situation and that is tariffs. Smooth holy tariff Act 1930 that was being discussed in Congress in 1929 came into law in 1930. We've got something worse now and that's Trump's tariffs and it's worse because it's just creating additional uncertainty. You know it's not as if he's turning around and say this is the rate bang that's it you know no he's he keeps on changing his mind it's creating havoc in international trade. So the valuation uh um disparity I think is absolutely enormous and this is bubble uh this is bubble territory big bubble territory probably the biggest bubble in history. Now this is very dangerous obviously. So what will tip it? Well my guess is that if bond yields start rising as markets re uh uh recognize its risk then that will that will pop the bubble. Um what I would say is that gold the rise in the price of gold in recent months indicates that there is a greater risk of this happening now than there was previously. So gold is leading the way on this. Gold is telling us yeah you know this bubble is about to pop and um so what we're likely to get I think is the recognition spreading from gold into bonds. So we're going to see higher bond values I think in the first quarter sorry higher bond yields in the first quarter of 2026. Now uh that one I think will create a market crisis. It means that the Fed will have to come in and support everything which basically means accelerated QE. I would not rule out the Fed actually buying ETFs, equity ETFs to try and support the market because there is this thing in in America, the most important thing about financial markets is the confidence it gives to the underlying economy. You know, if you don't if if the market's going down, you know, you it it undermines confidence in the economy. So, you know, they they believe this. Now, I'm not saying whether it's right or wrong, but what it does tell me is that the Fed is going to be in there um uh buying uh treasuries, buying um uh uh uh agency debt and all the rest of it big time. I mean, you know, we ain't seen anything like it in QE yet. And it's going I think that's that's going to be the big message. Now what that does basically is it injects huge amounts of raw um deposits uh or if you like reserves uh into the banks. It's you know it's it's monetization. And what do the banks do with it? Well the answer basically is what the banks will do is they will um sell you know treasury bonds whatever whatever and they'll go and buy tea bills you know like 28 days. So you've got a situation which uh helps fund the US Treasury. Um we've got an economy which is stalling. So their costs are going to rise. I mean I think the budget deficit could be well over two trillion. Um but the point is that the confidence in the whole system is going to be come unstuck. And the other point I'd like to make about the credit bubble bursting in equities is that uh you've got uh a lot of leverage. I mean if you look at the uh FINRA figures uh for um uh margin debt they are something like 1.2 trillion the highest ever. I mean it's gone up from something like 200 to 250 billion. In other words it's you know it really has rocketed uh since the great financial crisis. uh and that is basically only the stuff that goes through brokers, hedge funds and other institutions go direct to the banks for their credit. But what happens when stocks start falling? Well, the answer is the banks foreclose. And um doesn't matter you know what the the the uh fundamentals of a wonderful stock tell you, the sucker's going down because the banks have got to sell it. And uh the foreigners have got 20 trillion invested in US equities. What do they do? They get the hell out of it. I mean, you've got the crash scenario and I fully expect that to happen in 2026. And at the same time I expect the dollar and other currencies which will go with it to really take it on take the hit because the only way in which this debt gets um dealt with if you like is not through default but through the depreciation of the medium in which the debt is denominated and that is the dollar. So you're going to see a collapse in the purchasing power of the dollar. I think gold will go far higher than anybody expects because gold is basically money and not only will it be see this collapse happening and this incidentally is what's being signaled by copper in particular and also you know the silver amongst others um you know basically um gold will if you like try and discount the further collapse of the dollar I mean the answer Kai is that we are coming to the end of the fiat currency system and unless the politicians uh do something about it then the dollar and all the fiat currencies will go to zero. There's no other course and the problem is that the whole thing is not driven by economics. It is not driven by uh you know sort of if you like monetary sense in any sense. It's driven purely by politics and I would say there's a racing certainty that in 26 they will start introducing price controls. You have I mean most politicians I've ever met understand price controls are counterproductive but what are they going to do? they all introduce price control which will further put the nail in the coffin of the fiat currencies. >> So we stand I think on the edge of a bit of a precipice here >> and please everybody be aware of it. >> Absolutely. I think the general or like the general public is starting to wake up here based on what I'm seeing in the in the commodity in the precious metals in particular. But Ellis, I need to ask you one last question. We're essentially out of time, but I teaser Japan at the beginning. And I'm wondering if is Japan and currently the the bond situation, the the carry trade, that's what I'm hinting at here, the needle that is going to pop our bubble here. >> Well, I mean, it could well be because um you know, you've got the 10-year rate which is rising quite sharply. I mean, it's 2.2 or 2.5, I don't know, something like that. It's it's um it really has risen and I don't see it stopping incidentally. uh I I can see that rising even further. Um it has a sort of two-edged sword. The one is that um the carry trade obviously US corporations uh you know borrowing cheap and lending into the US uh treasuries and if you look at the makeup of ownership of um uh US treasuries I mean places like Cayman Islands um really feature big time and also now Luxembourg as well London as well but I think a lot of that is you know it's based in London but it's actually done elsewhere mainly in places like Luxembourg where you borrow uh in um you know cheap cheaply if you like in one currency and go and invest uh in higher bond yields in another um and there's I mean this is somewhat ridiculous I mean you know if you if you actually live in the UK and you got a sense of what's going on in the UK I mean it's a complete disaster here yet the hedge funds are buying guilt I mean they're nuts absolutely nuts So there's a huge great sort of double take which will be taken as it were. The other point I would mention is not just carry trade. Um I don't know what the size of the carry trade is. I mean we're talking about a few trillion anyway but also the Japanese institutions are the largest holders of US treasuries. Why? Because they were getting the square root of sweet nothing uh on buying their Japanese JGBs. They leave that to um uh the Bank of Japan. Instead, they go out and they buy high yielding stuff elsewhere. I mean, they've been long of US treasuries, long of uh French oats, etc., you know, trying to pick up yield and all the rest of it. Now, with their yields rising, the pressure for them to do that is lessening substantially. So, you can see that it's not just the carriage trade which we have to worry about. is also the Japanese institutions's appetite for further US uh Treasury bonds. I think that's going to diminish very substantially. I mean, how far is the 10-year yield going to go? I mean, if I wouldn't be surprised to see it over 5%. I wouldn't be surprised to see it over 10%. Now, that's a dramatic dramatic disruption in global bond markets. But the fact of the matter is that the Japanese situation is bust and we got a new government. What's the first thing she does? She introduces a reflation package of another 35 um billion dollars. Now, it doesn't sound a lot because we get so used to the numbers coming out of the states, but it's the direction which is completely wrong. They're Keynesian. They are incredibly Keynesian. They know nothing else. And for some reason, everybody buys into it. But that is an illusion which is going to be disrupted I think in 2026. >> Lot lots going on in 2026. Lots of headwinds. Um as as you said it I can't say it any better. Be careful out there everybody and prepare. Right. >> Absolutely. Alistister, tremendous tremendous conversation. Really really appreciate your time as always. Where can we send our audience to follow more of your work? >> Well uh I've I run my own Substack. Um I would encourage you to um subscribe to that. I'd also subscribe u encourage you to become a paid subscriber because um you need to know how to preserve your wealth. I mean this is not an environment where you speculate to accumulate. No, this is an environment where you've got to know how to protect what you've got and stop it going down to zero. Um so I'm in the process if you like of education as much as anything and trying to do it in such a way that um the average intelligent non-speist can really understand. >> No and J you're number six rising finance substack on Substack right now. So congratulations on that apparently. So um that that's a substack statistic but I saw it this morning I was like oh wow that's impressive. So lots of our guests are featured on that finance substack and they're all like in the top 10 which is amazing. So really, really good sound advice cuz you got over 19,000 subscribers on Substack already. So tremendous achievement, Alistair. Much appreciate your time. It's always good to see you. Happy New Year. All the best. Health and wealth of course and uh can't wait to catch up with you early in the new year and see where things stand. So Alistister, thank you so much. >> Really looking forward to it and uh >> we'll talk soon. >> Health health and retain your wealth to all your subscribers. >> Thank you. >> Absolutely. Oh, Elliser, thank you so much. And to everybody else, happy new year. All the best for 2026. If you enjoy our conversations here on this channel, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously, bringing phenomenal guests like Alistister onto the program. How are you preparing? How are you protecting your wealth? How do you see this all playing out? Really, put it down below. We do want to hear from you and we much appreciate your support. So, thank you so much. Happy New Year. Health and wealth. Take care out there.
Silver Is Being Drained – The Paper Market Is Collapsing | Alasdair Macleod
Summary
Transcript
Gold and silver are marking record highs. Silver has completely exploded, trading around $75 an ounce as we record this. Volatility has picked up like you would not believe. But what is really happening? Let's take a look under the bonnet. Let's take a look under the hood here of what is happening in the world of commodities. Copper is also putting in a rally. One of the strongest dec runs in decades here for the copper for the base metal but also platinum and palladium need to be mentioned here as well. Lot lots going on. Is the world financial system falling apart? What is it telling us? I've invited a phenomenal guest back onto the program to discuss all this. His name is Alistair Mloud. He's a Alistair Mloud Substack. You know him. You should follow him. But uh before I switch over to my guest, you should follow us. Hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously and we much much appreciate the support. Now Alistair as always it is great to welcome you back on the program. It's good to see you. >> It's nice to be back Kai. >> Yeah lot lots to discuss in very very short time frame here Alistair. We need to make sense of the world. I mentioned it in the intro. Gold and silver are rallying. Lots going on. One topic I haven't mentioned in the intro that we need to touch on is really the the Japanese and the yen carry trade. But uh before we get to that, cuz it's ultra complex, let's to take a look at gold and silver. Gold record high all-time highs. Not as explosive as silver though. Um what what do you make of the run in the precious metals in particular right now, Alistair? What do you see under the hood? What do you see under the bonnet? >> Yeah. Well, I mean, the fundamental difference, I think, between uh the market situation in gold and the situation in silver is that gold is actually quite a different market. Um, obviously it's a monetary metal. The thing I would say about silver is it's not being priced as a monetary metal. It's actually being priced as an industrial metal. And uh, okay, we look at the gold silver ratio and all the rest of it and get excited when it sort of starts collapsing, which it has been doing, which is very exciting for the bulls. Fine. But the reality in silver is that it's industrial demand which is driving it. And um here you have a problem because uh you have the pricing being in uh derivative markets basically but the demand being for physical and it's that interplay which is suddenly creating a crisis for um those dealing uh in in um derivative markets because what is happening is that uh people who need uh silver for industrial purposes are being forced to go into the derivative markets and in the case of comx stand for delivery. I mean this year so far around about 15,000 tons of silver have been stood for delivery. Now we don't know precisely who all these uh stand for deliveries are but you can be pretty sure there is a very large element um if not almost entirely uh due to um you know in industrial entities uh needing this for manufacturing photovoltaic cells for um uh electric vehicles for whatever whatever. So um silver suddenly is a needed commodity and uh the fact that um commodities generally are stirring you also see the squeeze if you like on um uh derivative markets in the platinum group metals um that's been very very noticeable and also copper Dr. copper. But what this actually tells us is that over considerable periods of time, distortions in the fiat currency system have built up and the distortions are really very very evident in derivative markets. If you look at the price of um particularly copper in gold, prices in gold, gold is real money. its value does obviously flu fluctuate but not very much over long periods of time. Now if you look at the uh price of copper measured in gold then it's about 18% of its long-term value. In other words it has been suppressed while at the same time it appears to be rising in fiat currency terms. What this again tells us is that the suppression has been far greater than um you would think and consequently the rise in the value of copper in the markets is likely to accelerate substantially and that's before we talk about the fundamentals in the situation. Now Dr. Copper is very important because like silver this is a demanded metal in this new world. This new world of electronics, electrics, um power generation, I mean the whole thing. So this is um if you like a pretty good indicator that the distortions which have been put into commodities by collapsing feared values um those distortions are coming to an end. Now the problem as far as uh derivative markets are concerned is they're not really in a position to handle this. If you look at London in silver then basically there's no liquidity and this is why the lease rates spike up. I think it was early in October they spiked up to over 30%. At that time um there was a a backquidation between London and Comx. That backquidation seems to more or less disappeared but lease rates are still holding up. We're looking at sort of 7 8% that sort of figure the situation has been made worse for the derivative boys because China is restricting exports of silver. The reason this is important is that because China has been managing the price for some considerable time. It's done this I mean you know uh you and I have attended conferences. You run conferences and one of these conferences back about I don't know 10 12 years ago something like that. Uh I spoke to a bunch of um silver mining and silver exploration companies and I asked them um you know how do you turn your silver dory into um into wages and uh you know to pay the energy bills and the answer was quite simple. They said that the man from Trafagora or Glenor came round he valued it. Um told the bank which was presumably JP Morgan uh and uh on that basis the account was credited at JP Morgan and um the dory was then shipped off. Where was it shipped off to? Well, we don't know but we assume it's China. Of course it was China. China not only is today the largest the second largest uh mining nation by silver output but it imports dory not just silver dory but also other metal dories from which it extracts silver bearing in mind that over half of silver from mining operations comes from nons mining operations the result is that that China has built up a huge great stockpile of of silver secretly I mean it's It's, you know, just you you can work this this out for yourself. It's quite simple. But what China is doing from um the beginning of next year, in other words, in a week's time is it's introducing a new licensing export licensing regime which is designed to restrict the quantity of silver flowing out of China elsewhere. And this is happening at a time when India it is roughly where China was maybe 20 30 years ago. It is booming. I mean it is rapidly industrializing and its demand for silver is off the charts. Where do conglomerates like Reliance Industries go for their silver? Well, the answer is you know they go they they go to the um refiners and refiners say back of the queue mate. [laughter] They go into London and they buy it off the bullion banks uh who will sell a forward contract and then they stand for delivery. They go to Comx and they buy futures and they stand for delivery. So markets are being drained of liquidity and the problem in London is that uh you know you look at the uh numbers in the silver vault and you think oh there's quite a lot of silver there. Yeah, but it's all ETF silver and um you know the the it's calculated that the non-ETF silver which some people think is the float is around about 140 million ounces but a lot of that is actually um in firm hands. It's not available in the market and this is why the lease rates rise and I make a further point. I mean people investors look at commodity prices and they see these commodity prices uh um rising and they think it's rather like let's say dealing in Nvidia or Microsoft or you know one of these things um or even like dealing in a mining stock and they think well you know it's rises so much you're going to get sellers because obviously um you know when the price rises it rises to the point where supply comes in and satis satisfies the demand, you know. So that's the price level. And when you get there, what do you do? You take your profits. Yeah. But this is not what goes on in commodity markets. There is not that liquidity. The traffic is one way. It's all producers, all you know, not well, not so much producers, but it is the it is the industry which is demanding this stuff, and they're all demanding it at exactly the same time. Meanwhile, mind supply is inflexible. And then to have China turn around and say, "Well, we've told you the story on rare earths. Now, [snorts] telling you the story on silver and antinomy was was was another one this licensing thing." In other words, we're being squeezed. We are being very badly squeezed. And the thought that I mean today as we speak Kai um you know the volatility we saw silver overnight go to um what sort of 83 84 something like that and then it shot down I'm looking at my screen here to 74 and it's currently 75. Yeah I mean volatility yeah of course but has any silver been shaken out? Very very little. Very little. So this is going to march on unless of course there is a change in the demand from industrial users. So you know the volatility that we see in these commodities is completely different from the sort of volatility that you experience in stocks and it's a big big mistake to confuse the two and I think as a you know to sort of [laughter] round off this bit really what we are seeing is the demise of the um derivative system if you like which in the past has been expanded to satisfy demand. I mean basically financial demand for commodities uh and therefore kept a lid on prices that is coming to an end and the consequences of that I think will be far higher prices not just for precious metals base metals but commodities as a whole >> and what does that tell you? It tells you that the purchasing power of the fiat currencies are going down. I think those are two topics. Let's let's let's keep them separate for a minute because I want to come to the monetary side here in in a minute as well, Alistister. But allow me one very simple followup. Why now? >> Well, the thing has been I mean the timing the timing is is is is politics I suppose and in this case geopolitics. Um I mean I would say that President Trump has actually created this problem for America. uh um you know with his big beautiful tariffs or whatever you call them. Um and not only that but he's a spend thrift. So the idea that um any sort of budgetary control would come in um you know dismiss that completely. Now look at it from the outside. You know you're the Chinese government. You look at this and you know he's monkeying around. He's you know he was been threatening 140% tariffs and all you know okay he climbed down from that pretty quickly. Why? Because we China decided to restrict exports of rare earths of which America basically has virtually none. And they, you know, America needs it for her electronics industries. She he needs she needs it for defense purposes and all the rest of it. I mean, you know, and there was a reality check. Now, not only that, but on the monetary side, and you can't separate out the two, I'm afraid. on the monetary side. Um they see what he's doing to destroy the purchasing power of the dollar. And this is happening at a time when China, Russia, Brits, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, all these members are moving away, I mean gradually admittedly from uh using the dollar. They can't do away with it completely, but in terms of trade settlements between them, they can. They've got an alternative now. They've got um the yuan and not only that but uh the um Chinese set up Shanghai gold exchange vault in Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia and I am sure that uh the whole of the Middle East and also Southeast Asia is going to start settling trade imbalances in yuan which eventually will be backed by gold. I think we're seeing the setup, if you like, to replace the dollar when the dollar goes to zero. That's the way the Chinese are looking at it. I'm convinced of it. >> Monetary we one give me one more minute before we get to the monetary side there. Um, real quick, Alice, just I want to discuss pricing of the commodities itself. Like silver um, in particular is being discussed uh, on Shanghai. It's much higher even today as we've seen the massive volatility. Silver was holding up over $80 an ounce in Yuan. Um, where does the pricing difference come from? Can you explain that to us a little bit? How does that work? LBMA, Comx versus Shanghai, why is there such a big difference? >> Well, I mean, and I mean, the thing the thing is that until uh these new licensing um rules came in um and um you know, okay, they haven't quite come in, but it's obviously changing everybody's behavior in China. There was arbitrage effectively between China and London. um when uh the differential the price differential got great enough um London was able to suck in China supply silver supplies from China. I mean that's what we're told. We don't actually know but um you know something may come out of the trade statistics which incidentally I don't look at but um so you can see that an arbitrage would sort out these things and of course you've also got between um comx and London you've got the exchange for physical facility whereby um uh bullion banks and traders can take out small difference differences between uh you know the price on comix and the price in London. So you do have these um uh uh mechanisms but the problem is greater than that. The problem is that everybody outside China and indeed in China wants physical silver. So arbitrage actually is irrelevant. The shortage is in comx, the shortage is in London and the shortage is also in uh um uh in Shanghai. So the idea that you can get an orderly market whereby um uh arbitrage sorts out um you know the diff different prices on different markets. That's basically I don't think working anymore. I mean it's obviously working between London and uh and New York. But I think I think China's rather falling out of this one. I think they're becoming a large internal market. So um if you got a large internal market then obviously prices are going to have a degree of independence from international values. >> It'll attract a lot more outside capital too if you price it more attractively right um meaning higher. So the the flows accelerate usually. Um Aliser like we're we're missing coot data meaning commitment of trader reports. They're all delayed by six seven weeks. How how do you factor that into it? like not being able to see what the the big institutions are doing here on the long and short side in the commodity space like how how important is that information to you? How is that murking the waters here? >> I think it's in in a sense it's it it's not as important as you'd think. Um they have been updating a commitment of traders numbers. I mean we're talking about US commitment of traders numbers and um I think we're sort of couple of weeks behind in the moment. Uh the only thing that's interesting um if you look at silver is that the managed money bit uh you know managed money net longs is moderate if you like but you can get that number really by looking at the open interest on comx open interest on comix and silver is down while the price is up you know is that that tells you everything you need to know there is a squeeze if you like on comx the um uh you know the managed money category In other words, hedge funds basically are not playing this. They rarely aren't. Now, they have been going into gold recently, but that's relatively recent. I think over the last couple of weeks, open interest has actually risen quite sharply. It's not overbought on that measure yet. >> But you can see that um you know, gold might be val uh vulnerable to a little bit of a shakeout from now and then. Um so I'm sure that the uh bullion banks will try and uh well you know the trading desks anyway will try and shake out and trade if you like um uh gold but they're very restricted on silver for the reasons that we've been discussing. gold is a is, you know, that's the granddaddy of markets. And I think the interesting thing is that um at the LBMA conference at the end of October in Kyoto, the straw poll of attendees uh reckoned that gold in, you know, by the time the next conference would be just under $5,000. Now, that tells me that they've basically got balanced books. Uh now the balance is obviously in derivatives. This is not a balance in physical. It's derivatives. And it's an important point to understand. If you get counterparty risk escalating in derivatives, then that itself is likely to drive down total value of derivatives, open interest if you like on comx and um at the same time increase demand for physical. So, you know, we're on the cusp of something changing here even though the system reckons that it doesn't have a problem in gold because it's short comx long London. So, what's to worry about? Ah, but the problem is if you get an increase in demand for the physical then Houston there is a problem. But that is ahead of us. We're already seeing this in silver uh and silver which is um a more restricted market um you know quite clearly. I mean I was looking at um you know the the information on swaps and I think the swaps are short of about 10 billion dollars worth of silver. That's just one category. And of course the other problem swaps have is that the other categories the producers and all the rest of it. I mean they must be looking at this sort of price rising. They know what China's doing. You know, these these guys aren't fools. So, what do they do? Are they going to hedge their production in the market? No. What's the point? [clears throat] You know, which throws the emphasis back on the swaps. I mean, the financialization of derivatives, I think, is going to turn out to be a huge huge mistake. Huge mistake. >> It'll blow up in their face. And I think we're starting to see that there there were rumors and I'm not sure if you heard the same thing. I'm going a bit on a tangent here because I want to get to the monetary side, but I heard a rumor just this morning that apparently a bank blew up in the US already because they dipped uh it apparently the Fed had to dip into the repo facility and push additional liquidity towards that bank although no name has been mentioned. So >> well I I would I would say on that that that you know the Fed and the US Treasury uh do have the responsibility to ensure that this sort of information doesn't get out. >> Um so I think what we're talking about is a rumor. I I wouldn't be surprised, you know, to hear these rumors and I wouldn't be surprised to see um counterparty risk escalating in derivatives because, you know, if the derivative if outstanding derivatives are contracting at a rate, then obviously counterparty risk is going to increase. But the reason that they won't allow anyone to fail is because uh these banks have [clears throat] um counterparty relations not just in in silver but across a whole plethora of derivatives over the counter derivatives. And incidentally, I looked at the uh December uh bank participation report. There are five US banks who basically are net long of silver. Net long. That's you know I'm talking derivatives here. If you look however at the I think it was 17 foreign banks that's where the deficit is. So what we have I think is a situation where they're short on comx and they're getting squeezed in London. So yeah, there must be a number of these guys in in difficulty. Um we just have to pray that they get rescued without us really knowing about it. I mean I I don't you know I look in in our community we have lots of people who absolutely hate the derivatives and all the rest of it and you know but I mean don't don't don't [laughter] uh um you know go for what you wish for in this sense because it does no one any good just be patient. I think if the if the markets adjust in a in an orderly fashion and it will need government intervention to ensure that it is orderly then I think that serves the interests of everybody. >> Absolutely. We we've been sort of touching on the monetary side already because it's sort of like we're blurring the lines already on topics here. We're moving to the monetary side here now. Alistister and maybe we'll start off with a bit of a pointed question. Gold and silver are rallying, but none of the other asset classes you would assume in a monetary reset scenario have moved much. And I mean, the bond market, the 10-year yield somewhat flat since the last rate decision or anything actually. Uh the Dixie, yes, it's trending a little lower, but still at 98 points, not a massive move. Um what did I say? Dixie, S&P 500 is the other one. The the ma major indices, the stock market here, they're all fairly stable, right? they're moving sideways right now. Um, so no major like reason for concern from those asset classes. Um, so is this just a storm in the water glass that we're looking at or is there more to it and that the other asset class just haven't reacted yet? I think I think uh you have to um understand that we are in a debt bubble and what a debt bubble does is it drives up borrowing rates because the risk of repayment obviously escalates uh sorry of non-reayment the risk of default uh government default which basically is you know money printing uh increases the whole time. So, you know, if you're a foreigner buying dollars and buying US treasuries, you're going to be looking at um what are my dollars going to be worth in a year's time, um and you're going to want compensation for that in the form of a higher interest rate if you think that the purchasing power of the dollar is going to be lower in a year's time than it is today. That's really what drives bond yields. And obviously, the longer you go, the more volatile the yields are. So uh you're going to require compensation for that volatility as well. So this is the situation that we have. Um I I think um we also got to understand that the other side of a debt bubble is a credit bubble because uh these are two things on a balance sheet. One equals always equals the other. So where's the credit bubble? Well, it's quite obviously in equities and not in bonds. Bond values actually have been declining while equity values have been rising and the disparity in valuation is the greatest we have in recorded history. I believe it is even greater than it was in 1929 when finally Wall Street topped out and collapsed um topped out in September 29. We've also got a similar background to the situation and that is tariffs. Smooth holy tariff Act 1930 that was being discussed in Congress in 1929 came into law in 1930. We've got something worse now and that's Trump's tariffs and it's worse because it's just creating additional uncertainty. You know it's not as if he's turning around and say this is the rate bang that's it you know no he's he keeps on changing his mind it's creating havoc in international trade. So the valuation uh um disparity I think is absolutely enormous and this is bubble uh this is bubble territory big bubble territory probably the biggest bubble in history. Now this is very dangerous obviously. So what will tip it? Well my guess is that if bond yields start rising as markets re uh uh recognize its risk then that will that will pop the bubble. Um what I would say is that gold the rise in the price of gold in recent months indicates that there is a greater risk of this happening now than there was previously. So gold is leading the way on this. Gold is telling us yeah you know this bubble is about to pop and um so what we're likely to get I think is the recognition spreading from gold into bonds. So we're going to see higher bond values I think in the first quarter sorry higher bond yields in the first quarter of 2026. Now uh that one I think will create a market crisis. It means that the Fed will have to come in and support everything which basically means accelerated QE. I would not rule out the Fed actually buying ETFs, equity ETFs to try and support the market because there is this thing in in America, the most important thing about financial markets is the confidence it gives to the underlying economy. You know, if you don't if if the market's going down, you know, you it it undermines confidence in the economy. So, you know, they they believe this. Now, I'm not saying whether it's right or wrong, but what it does tell me is that the Fed is going to be in there um uh buying uh treasuries, buying um uh uh uh agency debt and all the rest of it big time. I mean, you know, we ain't seen anything like it in QE yet. And it's going I think that's that's going to be the big message. Now what that does basically is it injects huge amounts of raw um deposits uh or if you like reserves uh into the banks. It's you know it's it's monetization. And what do the banks do with it? Well the answer basically is what the banks will do is they will um sell you know treasury bonds whatever whatever and they'll go and buy tea bills you know like 28 days. So you've got a situation which uh helps fund the US Treasury. Um we've got an economy which is stalling. So their costs are going to rise. I mean I think the budget deficit could be well over two trillion. Um but the point is that the confidence in the whole system is going to be come unstuck. And the other point I'd like to make about the credit bubble bursting in equities is that uh you've got uh a lot of leverage. I mean if you look at the uh FINRA figures uh for um uh margin debt they are something like 1.2 trillion the highest ever. I mean it's gone up from something like 200 to 250 billion. In other words it's you know it really has rocketed uh since the great financial crisis. uh and that is basically only the stuff that goes through brokers, hedge funds and other institutions go direct to the banks for their credit. But what happens when stocks start falling? Well, the answer is the banks foreclose. And um doesn't matter you know what the the the uh fundamentals of a wonderful stock tell you, the sucker's going down because the banks have got to sell it. And uh the foreigners have got 20 trillion invested in US equities. What do they do? They get the hell out of it. I mean, you've got the crash scenario and I fully expect that to happen in 2026. And at the same time I expect the dollar and other currencies which will go with it to really take it on take the hit because the only way in which this debt gets um dealt with if you like is not through default but through the depreciation of the medium in which the debt is denominated and that is the dollar. So you're going to see a collapse in the purchasing power of the dollar. I think gold will go far higher than anybody expects because gold is basically money and not only will it be see this collapse happening and this incidentally is what's being signaled by copper in particular and also you know the silver amongst others um you know basically um gold will if you like try and discount the further collapse of the dollar I mean the answer Kai is that we are coming to the end of the fiat currency system and unless the politicians uh do something about it then the dollar and all the fiat currencies will go to zero. There's no other course and the problem is that the whole thing is not driven by economics. It is not driven by uh you know sort of if you like monetary sense in any sense. It's driven purely by politics and I would say there's a racing certainty that in 26 they will start introducing price controls. You have I mean most politicians I've ever met understand price controls are counterproductive but what are they going to do? they all introduce price control which will further put the nail in the coffin of the fiat currencies. >> So we stand I think on the edge of a bit of a precipice here >> and please everybody be aware of it. >> Absolutely. I think the general or like the general public is starting to wake up here based on what I'm seeing in the in the commodity in the precious metals in particular. But Ellis, I need to ask you one last question. We're essentially out of time, but I teaser Japan at the beginning. And I'm wondering if is Japan and currently the the bond situation, the the carry trade, that's what I'm hinting at here, the needle that is going to pop our bubble here. >> Well, I mean, it could well be because um you know, you've got the 10-year rate which is rising quite sharply. I mean, it's 2.2 or 2.5, I don't know, something like that. It's it's um it really has risen and I don't see it stopping incidentally. uh I I can see that rising even further. Um it has a sort of two-edged sword. The one is that um the carry trade obviously US corporations uh you know borrowing cheap and lending into the US uh treasuries and if you look at the makeup of ownership of um uh US treasuries I mean places like Cayman Islands um really feature big time and also now Luxembourg as well London as well but I think a lot of that is you know it's based in London but it's actually done elsewhere mainly in places like Luxembourg where you borrow uh in um you know cheap cheaply if you like in one currency and go and invest uh in higher bond yields in another um and there's I mean this is somewhat ridiculous I mean you know if you if you actually live in the UK and you got a sense of what's going on in the UK I mean it's a complete disaster here yet the hedge funds are buying guilt I mean they're nuts absolutely nuts So there's a huge great sort of double take which will be taken as it were. The other point I would mention is not just carry trade. Um I don't know what the size of the carry trade is. I mean we're talking about a few trillion anyway but also the Japanese institutions are the largest holders of US treasuries. Why? Because they were getting the square root of sweet nothing uh on buying their Japanese JGBs. They leave that to um uh the Bank of Japan. Instead, they go out and they buy high yielding stuff elsewhere. I mean, they've been long of US treasuries, long of uh French oats, etc., you know, trying to pick up yield and all the rest of it. Now, with their yields rising, the pressure for them to do that is lessening substantially. So, you can see that it's not just the carriage trade which we have to worry about. is also the Japanese institutions's appetite for further US uh Treasury bonds. I think that's going to diminish very substantially. I mean, how far is the 10-year yield going to go? I mean, if I wouldn't be surprised to see it over 5%. I wouldn't be surprised to see it over 10%. Now, that's a dramatic dramatic disruption in global bond markets. But the fact of the matter is that the Japanese situation is bust and we got a new government. What's the first thing she does? She introduces a reflation package of another 35 um billion dollars. Now, it doesn't sound a lot because we get so used to the numbers coming out of the states, but it's the direction which is completely wrong. They're Keynesian. They are incredibly Keynesian. They know nothing else. And for some reason, everybody buys into it. But that is an illusion which is going to be disrupted I think in 2026. >> Lot lots going on in 2026. Lots of headwinds. Um as as you said it I can't say it any better. Be careful out there everybody and prepare. Right. >> Absolutely. Alistister, tremendous tremendous conversation. Really really appreciate your time as always. Where can we send our audience to follow more of your work? >> Well uh I've I run my own Substack. Um I would encourage you to um subscribe to that. I'd also subscribe u encourage you to become a paid subscriber because um you need to know how to preserve your wealth. I mean this is not an environment where you speculate to accumulate. No, this is an environment where you've got to know how to protect what you've got and stop it going down to zero. Um so I'm in the process if you like of education as much as anything and trying to do it in such a way that um the average intelligent non-speist can really understand. >> No and J you're number six rising finance substack on Substack right now. So congratulations on that apparently. So um that that's a substack statistic but I saw it this morning I was like oh wow that's impressive. So lots of our guests are featured on that finance substack and they're all like in the top 10 which is amazing. So really, really good sound advice cuz you got over 19,000 subscribers on Substack already. So tremendous achievement, Alistair. Much appreciate your time. It's always good to see you. Happy New Year. All the best. Health and wealth of course and uh can't wait to catch up with you early in the new year and see where things stand. So Alistister, thank you so much. >> Really looking forward to it and uh >> we'll talk soon. >> Health health and retain your wealth to all your subscribers. >> Thank you. >> Absolutely. Oh, Elliser, thank you so much. And to everybody else, happy new year. All the best for 2026. If you enjoy our conversations here on this channel, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously, bringing phenomenal guests like Alistister onto the program. How are you preparing? How are you protecting your wealth? How do you see this all playing out? Really, put it down below. We do want to hear from you and we much appreciate your support. So, thank you so much. Happy New Year. Health and wealth. Take care out there.