Precious Metals: Extensive discussion on gold vs. silver dynamics, with gold favored over silver due to macro risk and industrial demand headwinds for silver.
Gold: Highlighted via David Einhorn’s view that substantial Fed rate cuts would be bullish for gold, particularly if cuts occur even as inflation trends modestly higher.
Silver/SLV & PSLV: Silver is trading like a high-beta risk asset; the guest considers a short-term tactical short in SLV around CPI, while noting prior trades in PSLV.
Rate Cuts: Fed cut probabilities fell after strong jobs data, but Einhorn expects more-than-two cuts; positioning for lower short-term rates was emphasized.
Yield Curve Steepening: The guest favors a 2s/10s bull steepener trade as a way to express rate-cut views with potentially better risk management versus outright SOFR futures.
Macro Triggers: CPI outcomes are key near-term catalysts; a hotter print could pressure silver further, while a cooler print may spark a rebound in risk assets.
Risk Management: Differentiates between recession vs. credit-event scenarios for metals; curve-steepener trade framed as hedged versus directional futures exposure.
Market Context: Broad risk-off day observed (equities, Bitcoin, silver down; bonds up), reinforcing sensitivity of metals and risk assets to shifting Fed expectations.
Transcript
Hello fellow Robo Capitals. Hope you're well. Silver taking it on the chin today. At one point down over 10% and we thought there was a lot of volatility in Bitcoin. Silver says, "Ah, nah, hold my beer, Mr. Bitcoin. I'll show you what true volatility is." [laughter] That's for sure. So, the question becomes, where is it going from here? What do you do? And to answer that question, I'll give you my opinion, but I also want to go over to David Einhorn because he recently came out and talked about what he thinks the Fed is going to do and what he is personally doing with his own portfolio, the his hedge funds portfolio in terms of precious metals. I think it's going to give you some really, really interesting insights. So, first and foremost, let's do the old screen share. Oh, there we go. and we're going to shoot over to CNBC, get an update as to what's happening with the metals. So, gold trading down 2.76% now under 5,000, but silver, the big loser on the day, down 9% so far. And you know, it's just really incredible to think that just I what a week and a half ago it was trading at 120 bucks a share. I mean that's that is bananas. [laughter] And at one point today I think it was down under 75 75 bucks. So you know and by the way uh Bitcoin down even more. Last time I checked it was 66,000. Bitcoin down today big as well. You know, almost everything is down. It's not to go off topic here, but the S&P 500 down 1%, Dow down almost 1%. We've got Bitcoin down huge. Uh, not huge, uh, down significantly. Let's just say that. We've got silver down huge. And then gold down and bonds way up. as far as the price, the yields way, way down like we talked about in our lot in our last video. But let's go over to the SLV. I'm going to use that as a proxy for silver because I want to look at the charts. And I'm no technical pro as far as technical analysis, but I think there's a lot of information we can derive from what these candlesticks actually look like. I've been talking a lot about this in my videos and this is one thing that's really helped me as far as my performance in my own portfolio over the last year. I've done extremely well in paying more attention to the technicals is one of the reasons why one of the main reasons why. So we go over to the full chart. Let's do a one-year. And for Rebel Capitals Pro members, uh I was talking about I give them trade alerts in real time, whatever I'm doing with my portfolio, buy, sell, hold, whatever I'm doing. And uh fortunately, um I was not in SLV, I was in PSLV, but uh I sold right around here. So I did not participate in this [laughter] if that's the right word uh in this huge huge drop and then I was fortunate enough uh again to buy it right around here and take this upside. So silver although I missed this move in the last couple months it's been very very very good to me. Oh by the way I bought here as well. So I bought here sold right around here. bought here, sold here, and then I haven't been in it. But, uh, honestly, right now, based on this chart, I would consider taking a short position. Uh, not long term, but maybe just for a couple days going into the CPI report tomorrow because if we get a beat on the CPI, if we if CPI is higher than expectations, then, you know, this is likely going to go down quite uh a lot further. So, why did we get why did we get uh hammered right here to begin with starting yesterday? Likely had something to do with the jobs report. So, if you haven't been paying attention, let's go back to the trusty calendar and we see yesterday, February 11th, we had 130,000 and the expectations were 55. Now, 130 isn't great, but obviously it was a huge huge beat versus what the market was expecting. So, what does this do? This just reduces the probabilities the Fed is going to cut rates and I don't think that really over the long run plays into the precious metals price but definitely short term it impacts it for sure for sure for sure. So we see all of the risk on assets just really really sell off and it's just oh Fed isn't going to cut rates or the probability of the Fed cutting rates oh sell sell because everyone knows everyone thinks that lower interest rates means higher asset prices across the board. So let's go over to the CME group and I want to do a refresh and I'm looking at what the probabilities are the Fed cuts rates. So we can see that just a week ago we were at about 23% probability that they would cut and then yesterday that goes down to 6.4 because of what we were talking about with the jobs. I think that was kind of the catalyst that kind of sent silver and Bitcoin as well over the edge. Gold down but not so much. And that takes us into what David Einhorn is doing with precious metals and also what he's doing with interest rates, which I thought was really really fascinating because it's it's something very similar to what I'm doing in my own portfolio. We'll get into that in just a moment. But there we see that today the odds of a rate cut 7.8%. was up slightly but down big over the last week and over the last month. And by the way, this Fed meeting is in 33 days. So about one month, but we'll have to see how this changes based on the CPI report tomorrow that we get. And just as a reminder, the expectation month overmonth is a.3 and year-over-year a 2.5 down from a 2.7. I believe that's obviously because of base effects because we're getting a expectation for a.3. The base effect must be pretty substantial. Core CPI.3 and then core year-over-year also at 2.5. We'll have to see what we get. If we get, let's just say at uh a 0.2 2 or a 0.1 on the month, then most likely silver goes up or rebounds. Same thing with Bitcoin. But same thing NASDAQ, by the way. But if we get a 04, then silver likely going to take it on the chin again. And you say, why is that? Because silver's an inflation hedge. Not really. It's right now it's just trading like a risk asset. It's just trading like a meme stock. And I know people get mad at me for saying that, but it's just look guys, we got to put our bias on the side. And we've just got to it is what it is, right? We've got to have complete objectivity when we're trying to set up our portfolio and figure out, you know, what's happening with investments and the macroeconomic landscape and with specific asset classes. [snorts] All right. So getting back to and in in fact I would say that silver right now oh let me go back to the PSLV um I mean when you look at this chart no matter how much you love silver or you could be a silver bull or whatever it is that's fine and you want to say oh it's being manipulated and and this and that okay it's being manipulated whatever that doesn't change the fact and the fact of the matter is it's still trading like a meme stock. It just you can't dispute that. Uh I know a lot of people hear that and they think that oh that's like a negative connotation that that means that I'm somehow bearish on silver longer terms. No, it's just stating it as a matter of fact. All right. So now let's go back to Einhorn. Interesting stuff here. David Einhorn says the Fed will cut substantially more than two times. So, he's betting on gold, but notice he's betting on gold. He's not betting on silver. Why is that? Well, I don't know. I haven't spoken with David Einhorn, but if I had to venture a guess, it would be because silver has more of an industrial component. And if the Fed is going to cut more than what's baked into the market right now, or substantially more according to Einhorn, what does that say about the economy? that says that the economy is likely deteriorating to a point where the Fed has to acknowledge it and and the labor market and they have to cut rates four times, five times as opposed to just the two times that we that uh the market expects right now. So let's just assume that they do cut five times because they have you know the economy is deteriorating. What does that mean for silver? I mean it it might go up but the probabilities are that it goes down uh that that's a substantial substantial substantial headwind. Now in that scenario does gold go down? Maybe it depends on if we have a credit event like we had during the GFC because if we have a credit event then everything goes down except for treasuries and the dollar. But if we have a recession like we had dot com, gold didn't go down during dot com, but it definitely went down during the GFC. And the difference is one, we just have kind of a balance sheet recession and the other you have a full-on credit event. So in the balance sheet recession, I think Einhorn would lean toward gold outperforming silver. And in a credit event, who knows? [laughter] I think during the GFC, if my memory serves me well, gold actually did outperform silver. So, I I think that's how he's kind of reconciling his view here is betting on gold versus uh betting on silver because he thinks the Fed will cut more due to two things. Number one, the economy slowing down and that being evident in the data, including probably the real GDP numbers. And also he believes that uh that Kevin Walsh, who is Trump's pick to succeed Jerome Pal, is going to be able to persuade the other people on the FOMC um uh the FOMC, excuse me, uh to cut rates unless he says inflation is at four or 5%, which it probably won't be. When you talk about inflation, he's talking about the CPI. So his view is that this Kevin Worsh guy is going to be very persuasive to the other people at the Fed. And we all know where Trump wants interest rates. So he's going to be able to get those interest rates down a lot quicker and a lot faster than the market is expecting. In addition to the fact that it'll probably be very easy to persuade the FOMC members when we're getting the data that's coming out about the economy and the labor market deteriorating. He says I think by the end of the year substantially more cuts. We get that. Well, this is interesting. So Einhorn says that Walsh in his view is going to take a position of cutting even if the economy is running hot. Huh. Yeah. So if that happens, let's just say that CPI doesn't go up to four or 5%. But let's just say that the CPI goes, let's say tomorrow we get a 10 point, excuse me, a 2.5, which is uh what the market is predicting. If we go from a 2.5, let's say, up to a three, 3.2, 3.3, and it's kind of trending up. If that's the scenario, and he's still cutting rates into that, then I think, yeah, I think gold does really well. I think silver uh does well in that environment as um in that environment assuming all else is equal with the economy which I think it would be if the CPI was going up. Very difficult for the CPI to go up and trend higher and higher and higher when you're in an economic contraction and the unemployment rate is spiking significantly. Even in the 1970s when that unemployment rate went up in a recession, you had the CPI going down, not up. So, how is he playing this view outside of gold and this is the part that I said to me is really fascinating because I've got a similar position on in my own portfolio that we talk about in Robo Capitalist Pro. So, where we are? Here we go. deeming betting on more cuts as one of the best trades out there right now. So, he's saying that this is he likes this even better than gold. Inord said he was also long futures on sofur contracts, which essentially is a bet short-term rates will go lower. Sofur, so the the sofur rate is just really a derivative of what's happening that day in repo. And so he's betting that those rates which are, you know, really tied to Fed funds too, are going to be a lot lower in a year than the market is predicting. So right now, let's just assume sofur is right around Fed funds. So let's go to a chart, guys, of Fed funds really quick so I can show you. So we're at 3.64 right now. So if the market is baking in two cuts, we'll say 50 basis points, that's roughly 3.14. And what uh Einhorn is doing is he is buying these sofur futures expecting the rates to be below 3.14 at the end of the year. So if the rates are at 3%, if the rates are at 2.5, 2.75, Einhorn wins huge, especially because he's doing futures that have so much leverage. So now I have a similar view to Einhorn in that I think rates will go down at least overnight rates will go down by more than 50 basis points in 2026. But I'm playing it a completely different way. I'm playing it through the spread in the uh 2-year 10-year to increase. So, let's go over this chart, which you can see the spread right now, or at least last time this was updated was 66 basis points. But if we zoom out, we can see how these cycles usually play out. In fact, they always play out like this. Now, that doesn't mean that this cycle is going to play out the same way. But it's a game of probabilities at the end of the day. So if if uh if uh Einhorn is correct and if the Fed does cut more, then you're likely going to get a bull steepener. That's where the 2-year Treasury goes down more than the 10-year Treasury. And uh or if Einhorn's completely wrong and I'm completely wrong and the economy really starts to accelerate, then you're likely going to get a steepener, but it's just going to be a bare steepener where the long end of the curve goes up faster than the front end of the curve. And this is something that we talk about in Robbo Capitalist Pro all the time. And I've had this trade on and I've been adding and subtracting kind of going back and forth for like the last six months. So, if you want to find out more about this trade and other kind of contrarian insights and strategies like this, you can go ahead and check out Rebel Capitals Pro. Put a link in the description or Josh will put it in the chat. But I just like this a little bit better because for me it kind of in my mind whether it's true or not, it just kind of hedges my downside where if I'm just playing sofur futures outright, it's a it's a really a directional bet. And if that doesn't pay off, you're you're you lose a lot of money, especially because there's so much leverage in futures. But with the spread trade, right, if if rates go up, well, I don't get hurt too bad as long as the spread doesn't increase. And if rates go down, well, if the spread doesn't increase, I don't win. But the in the event that the Fed is forced or chooses to cut more than twice, the odds are you get that bull steepener, which is where I would win, but yet I'm not taking as much of the downside risk if rates actually go up. So, my prediction for silver I I don't, [sighs and gasps] you know, silver's tough because let's go back to that SLV chart. I'll tell you, I I want to be really bullish on on silver. I do. And up here, you know, I was predicting it was going to go to 150 or so within the next three months or six months or something like that. But now that this breaks down in the chart, it I just I don't know. It it's tough. And look, you again, you can say it's being manipulated and all these things, but at the end of the day, that's that's not going to matter to your portfolio. If you own silver and it goes down by 50% from here, you don't get a participation trophy just because it was manipulated and that's why it went down. your your portfolio still took a 50% hit regardless of why it went down. It went down. [laughter] So, you know, now you can say that the reason why it went down is manipulated and that can't hold and because, you know, there needs physical delivery on the silver and that's going to make the prices explode from here. And the only reason it went down today was just because of central banks intervening and yada yada yada. But I don't know. I I think that's low probability and I'm not going to bet my money if that's the only kind of bull argument and bull thesis. Uh if this if it closes like this, I I think it's going to be down tomorrow. Um if it just gets a big spike up here, that would be bullish, but I I think odds are are pretty low there. And then, you know, when you get these huge sell-offs, you know, my problem here is if you look at an all-time chart of silver and you look at the last time we had one of these big sell-offs like this, I mean, you guys know how it ended. It ended with us going well this going from 2011 to 2025 until it hit that high water mark again. So that's let's just say 15 years. So is it going to and that's the last time the chart did this. So I'm not saying it's going to happen again but that's what happened last time. That's what happened last time. All right, guys. Enjoy the rest of your afternoon. As always, make sure you're standing up for freedom, liberty, free market capitalism. If you want to check out all those incredible contrarian insights and strategies we talk about in Rebel Capitalist Pro that have done extremely well, by the way, over the last 12 months, knock on wood. Uh Josh will put a link in the chat and in the description of this video. On that bombshell, guys, enjoy the rest of your afternoon. As always, make sure you're standing up for freedom, liberty, free market, capitalism. We'll see you in the next video.
Silver Is Getting NUKED…WTF Is Happening?
Summary
Transcript
Hello fellow Robo Capitals. Hope you're well. Silver taking it on the chin today. At one point down over 10% and we thought there was a lot of volatility in Bitcoin. Silver says, "Ah, nah, hold my beer, Mr. Bitcoin. I'll show you what true volatility is." [laughter] That's for sure. So, the question becomes, where is it going from here? What do you do? And to answer that question, I'll give you my opinion, but I also want to go over to David Einhorn because he recently came out and talked about what he thinks the Fed is going to do and what he is personally doing with his own portfolio, the his hedge funds portfolio in terms of precious metals. I think it's going to give you some really, really interesting insights. So, first and foremost, let's do the old screen share. Oh, there we go. and we're going to shoot over to CNBC, get an update as to what's happening with the metals. So, gold trading down 2.76% now under 5,000, but silver, the big loser on the day, down 9% so far. And you know, it's just really incredible to think that just I what a week and a half ago it was trading at 120 bucks a share. I mean that's that is bananas. [laughter] And at one point today I think it was down under 75 75 bucks. So you know and by the way uh Bitcoin down even more. Last time I checked it was 66,000. Bitcoin down today big as well. You know, almost everything is down. It's not to go off topic here, but the S&P 500 down 1%, Dow down almost 1%. We've got Bitcoin down huge. Uh, not huge, uh, down significantly. Let's just say that. We've got silver down huge. And then gold down and bonds way up. as far as the price, the yields way, way down like we talked about in our lot in our last video. But let's go over to the SLV. I'm going to use that as a proxy for silver because I want to look at the charts. And I'm no technical pro as far as technical analysis, but I think there's a lot of information we can derive from what these candlesticks actually look like. I've been talking a lot about this in my videos and this is one thing that's really helped me as far as my performance in my own portfolio over the last year. I've done extremely well in paying more attention to the technicals is one of the reasons why one of the main reasons why. So we go over to the full chart. Let's do a one-year. And for Rebel Capitals Pro members, uh I was talking about I give them trade alerts in real time, whatever I'm doing with my portfolio, buy, sell, hold, whatever I'm doing. And uh fortunately, um I was not in SLV, I was in PSLV, but uh I sold right around here. So I did not participate in this [laughter] if that's the right word uh in this huge huge drop and then I was fortunate enough uh again to buy it right around here and take this upside. So silver although I missed this move in the last couple months it's been very very very good to me. Oh by the way I bought here as well. So I bought here sold right around here. bought here, sold here, and then I haven't been in it. But, uh, honestly, right now, based on this chart, I would consider taking a short position. Uh, not long term, but maybe just for a couple days going into the CPI report tomorrow because if we get a beat on the CPI, if we if CPI is higher than expectations, then, you know, this is likely going to go down quite uh a lot further. So, why did we get why did we get uh hammered right here to begin with starting yesterday? Likely had something to do with the jobs report. So, if you haven't been paying attention, let's go back to the trusty calendar and we see yesterday, February 11th, we had 130,000 and the expectations were 55. Now, 130 isn't great, but obviously it was a huge huge beat versus what the market was expecting. So, what does this do? This just reduces the probabilities the Fed is going to cut rates and I don't think that really over the long run plays into the precious metals price but definitely short term it impacts it for sure for sure for sure. So we see all of the risk on assets just really really sell off and it's just oh Fed isn't going to cut rates or the probability of the Fed cutting rates oh sell sell because everyone knows everyone thinks that lower interest rates means higher asset prices across the board. So let's go over to the CME group and I want to do a refresh and I'm looking at what the probabilities are the Fed cuts rates. So we can see that just a week ago we were at about 23% probability that they would cut and then yesterday that goes down to 6.4 because of what we were talking about with the jobs. I think that was kind of the catalyst that kind of sent silver and Bitcoin as well over the edge. Gold down but not so much. And that takes us into what David Einhorn is doing with precious metals and also what he's doing with interest rates, which I thought was really really fascinating because it's it's something very similar to what I'm doing in my own portfolio. We'll get into that in just a moment. But there we see that today the odds of a rate cut 7.8%. was up slightly but down big over the last week and over the last month. And by the way, this Fed meeting is in 33 days. So about one month, but we'll have to see how this changes based on the CPI report tomorrow that we get. And just as a reminder, the expectation month overmonth is a.3 and year-over-year a 2.5 down from a 2.7. I believe that's obviously because of base effects because we're getting a expectation for a.3. The base effect must be pretty substantial. Core CPI.3 and then core year-over-year also at 2.5. We'll have to see what we get. If we get, let's just say at uh a 0.2 2 or a 0.1 on the month, then most likely silver goes up or rebounds. Same thing with Bitcoin. But same thing NASDAQ, by the way. But if we get a 04, then silver likely going to take it on the chin again. And you say, why is that? Because silver's an inflation hedge. Not really. It's right now it's just trading like a risk asset. It's just trading like a meme stock. And I know people get mad at me for saying that, but it's just look guys, we got to put our bias on the side. And we've just got to it is what it is, right? We've got to have complete objectivity when we're trying to set up our portfolio and figure out, you know, what's happening with investments and the macroeconomic landscape and with specific asset classes. [snorts] All right. So getting back to and in in fact I would say that silver right now oh let me go back to the PSLV um I mean when you look at this chart no matter how much you love silver or you could be a silver bull or whatever it is that's fine and you want to say oh it's being manipulated and and this and that okay it's being manipulated whatever that doesn't change the fact and the fact of the matter is it's still trading like a meme stock. It just you can't dispute that. Uh I know a lot of people hear that and they think that oh that's like a negative connotation that that means that I'm somehow bearish on silver longer terms. No, it's just stating it as a matter of fact. All right. So now let's go back to Einhorn. Interesting stuff here. David Einhorn says the Fed will cut substantially more than two times. So, he's betting on gold, but notice he's betting on gold. He's not betting on silver. Why is that? Well, I don't know. I haven't spoken with David Einhorn, but if I had to venture a guess, it would be because silver has more of an industrial component. And if the Fed is going to cut more than what's baked into the market right now, or substantially more according to Einhorn, what does that say about the economy? that says that the economy is likely deteriorating to a point where the Fed has to acknowledge it and and the labor market and they have to cut rates four times, five times as opposed to just the two times that we that uh the market expects right now. So let's just assume that they do cut five times because they have you know the economy is deteriorating. What does that mean for silver? I mean it it might go up but the probabilities are that it goes down uh that that's a substantial substantial substantial headwind. Now in that scenario does gold go down? Maybe it depends on if we have a credit event like we had during the GFC because if we have a credit event then everything goes down except for treasuries and the dollar. But if we have a recession like we had dot com, gold didn't go down during dot com, but it definitely went down during the GFC. And the difference is one, we just have kind of a balance sheet recession and the other you have a full-on credit event. So in the balance sheet recession, I think Einhorn would lean toward gold outperforming silver. And in a credit event, who knows? [laughter] I think during the GFC, if my memory serves me well, gold actually did outperform silver. So, I I think that's how he's kind of reconciling his view here is betting on gold versus uh betting on silver because he thinks the Fed will cut more due to two things. Number one, the economy slowing down and that being evident in the data, including probably the real GDP numbers. And also he believes that uh that Kevin Walsh, who is Trump's pick to succeed Jerome Pal, is going to be able to persuade the other people on the FOMC um uh the FOMC, excuse me, uh to cut rates unless he says inflation is at four or 5%, which it probably won't be. When you talk about inflation, he's talking about the CPI. So his view is that this Kevin Worsh guy is going to be very persuasive to the other people at the Fed. And we all know where Trump wants interest rates. So he's going to be able to get those interest rates down a lot quicker and a lot faster than the market is expecting. In addition to the fact that it'll probably be very easy to persuade the FOMC members when we're getting the data that's coming out about the economy and the labor market deteriorating. He says I think by the end of the year substantially more cuts. We get that. Well, this is interesting. So Einhorn says that Walsh in his view is going to take a position of cutting even if the economy is running hot. Huh. Yeah. So if that happens, let's just say that CPI doesn't go up to four or 5%. But let's just say that the CPI goes, let's say tomorrow we get a 10 point, excuse me, a 2.5, which is uh what the market is predicting. If we go from a 2.5, let's say, up to a three, 3.2, 3.3, and it's kind of trending up. If that's the scenario, and he's still cutting rates into that, then I think, yeah, I think gold does really well. I think silver uh does well in that environment as um in that environment assuming all else is equal with the economy which I think it would be if the CPI was going up. Very difficult for the CPI to go up and trend higher and higher and higher when you're in an economic contraction and the unemployment rate is spiking significantly. Even in the 1970s when that unemployment rate went up in a recession, you had the CPI going down, not up. So, how is he playing this view outside of gold and this is the part that I said to me is really fascinating because I've got a similar position on in my own portfolio that we talk about in Robo Capitalist Pro. So, where we are? Here we go. deeming betting on more cuts as one of the best trades out there right now. So, he's saying that this is he likes this even better than gold. Inord said he was also long futures on sofur contracts, which essentially is a bet short-term rates will go lower. Sofur, so the the sofur rate is just really a derivative of what's happening that day in repo. And so he's betting that those rates which are, you know, really tied to Fed funds too, are going to be a lot lower in a year than the market is predicting. So right now, let's just assume sofur is right around Fed funds. So let's go to a chart, guys, of Fed funds really quick so I can show you. So we're at 3.64 right now. So if the market is baking in two cuts, we'll say 50 basis points, that's roughly 3.14. And what uh Einhorn is doing is he is buying these sofur futures expecting the rates to be below 3.14 at the end of the year. So if the rates are at 3%, if the rates are at 2.5, 2.75, Einhorn wins huge, especially because he's doing futures that have so much leverage. So now I have a similar view to Einhorn in that I think rates will go down at least overnight rates will go down by more than 50 basis points in 2026. But I'm playing it a completely different way. I'm playing it through the spread in the uh 2-year 10-year to increase. So, let's go over this chart, which you can see the spread right now, or at least last time this was updated was 66 basis points. But if we zoom out, we can see how these cycles usually play out. In fact, they always play out like this. Now, that doesn't mean that this cycle is going to play out the same way. But it's a game of probabilities at the end of the day. So if if uh if uh Einhorn is correct and if the Fed does cut more, then you're likely going to get a bull steepener. That's where the 2-year Treasury goes down more than the 10-year Treasury. And uh or if Einhorn's completely wrong and I'm completely wrong and the economy really starts to accelerate, then you're likely going to get a steepener, but it's just going to be a bare steepener where the long end of the curve goes up faster than the front end of the curve. And this is something that we talk about in Robbo Capitalist Pro all the time. And I've had this trade on and I've been adding and subtracting kind of going back and forth for like the last six months. So, if you want to find out more about this trade and other kind of contrarian insights and strategies like this, you can go ahead and check out Rebel Capitals Pro. Put a link in the description or Josh will put it in the chat. But I just like this a little bit better because for me it kind of in my mind whether it's true or not, it just kind of hedges my downside where if I'm just playing sofur futures outright, it's a it's a really a directional bet. And if that doesn't pay off, you're you're you lose a lot of money, especially because there's so much leverage in futures. But with the spread trade, right, if if rates go up, well, I don't get hurt too bad as long as the spread doesn't increase. And if rates go down, well, if the spread doesn't increase, I don't win. But the in the event that the Fed is forced or chooses to cut more than twice, the odds are you get that bull steepener, which is where I would win, but yet I'm not taking as much of the downside risk if rates actually go up. So, my prediction for silver I I don't, [sighs and gasps] you know, silver's tough because let's go back to that SLV chart. I'll tell you, I I want to be really bullish on on silver. I do. And up here, you know, I was predicting it was going to go to 150 or so within the next three months or six months or something like that. But now that this breaks down in the chart, it I just I don't know. It it's tough. And look, you again, you can say it's being manipulated and all these things, but at the end of the day, that's that's not going to matter to your portfolio. If you own silver and it goes down by 50% from here, you don't get a participation trophy just because it was manipulated and that's why it went down. your your portfolio still took a 50% hit regardless of why it went down. It went down. [laughter] So, you know, now you can say that the reason why it went down is manipulated and that can't hold and because, you know, there needs physical delivery on the silver and that's going to make the prices explode from here. And the only reason it went down today was just because of central banks intervening and yada yada yada. But I don't know. I I think that's low probability and I'm not going to bet my money if that's the only kind of bull argument and bull thesis. Uh if this if it closes like this, I I think it's going to be down tomorrow. Um if it just gets a big spike up here, that would be bullish, but I I think odds are are pretty low there. And then, you know, when you get these huge sell-offs, you know, my problem here is if you look at an all-time chart of silver and you look at the last time we had one of these big sell-offs like this, I mean, you guys know how it ended. It ended with us going well this going from 2011 to 2025 until it hit that high water mark again. So that's let's just say 15 years. So is it going to and that's the last time the chart did this. So I'm not saying it's going to happen again but that's what happened last time. That's what happened last time. All right, guys. Enjoy the rest of your afternoon. As always, make sure you're standing up for freedom, liberty, free market capitalism. If you want to check out all those incredible contrarian insights and strategies we talk about in Rebel Capitalist Pro that have done extremely well, by the way, over the last 12 months, knock on wood. Uh Josh will put a link in the chat and in the description of this video. On that bombshell, guys, enjoy the rest of your afternoon. As always, make sure you're standing up for freedom, liberty, free market, capitalism. We'll see you in the next video.