Kitco News
Jan 8, 2026

Silver Pullback or Breakdown? The Chart Lines That Decide | Gary Wagner

Summary

  • Precious Metals: The guest is firmly bullish on gold and silver, citing strong momentum, persistent dip-buying, and the absence of a true correction despite large gains.
  • Index Rebalancing: A 5-day Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalance is creating mechanical selling in silver, viewed as short-term noise and a potential accumulation opportunity.
  • Technical Levels: For gold, support around 4,300 with targets near 4,550 and potentially 4,700–4,800, even $5,000 by year-end; for silver, buy zone 72–74 with key support at 71.
  • Currency Debasement: The case for gold is tied to fiat currencies’ declining purchasing power and lack of intrinsic value compared to gold’s historical store-of-value role.
  • Central Bank Demand: Ongoing gold accumulation by central banks (e.g., Poland, China) is highlighted as smart-money support for prices.
  • Risk and Corrections: While healthy corrections (23%–50%+) are possible, there is no technical evidence of a pivot to bearish; shorting futures is discouraged given strong momentum.
  • Market Outlook: Gold acts as a stabilizing anchor amid uncertainty, with silver more volatile but supported by gold’s strength and persistent bids.

Transcript

[music] Welcome back. I'm Jeremy Saffron. As we close out the first trading week of the year, we have a crucial show for you today. First, a quick programming note. Our KitKo team will be in Saudi Arabia next week for a major industry event. So, we will be off the air. That means today isn't just about the close, it's about setting your strategy for the next seven days. And the timing matters. Today marks day one of the annual Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing. Now, this is a 5-day process where index tracking funds mechanically adjust their waitings. And part of that is what is driving the action on your screen. Taking a look here, spot silver is under pressure, trading down just over 3% around 75. Gold, meanwhile, acting as the anchor around 4450, down just a fraction at a quarter of a percent, refusing to break structure. But rebalancing is only part of the story. I've reviewed the 2026 commodity outlook from Jim Widerhold. Bloomberg's product manager for these indices and he flags a major theme for 2026 rotation and repositioning with industrial metals potentially taking leadership from precious metals as supply tightness and growth dynamics continue to shift. So here's the key question in today's move. Is it simply, you know, day one of a mechanical shakeout? Are we the start of something deeper? Of course, we got to bring back our very own Gary Wagner from the goldfor.com. He's joining us now to give us the grounded playbook. Good to see you, my friend. Happy New Year. >> Happy belated New Year. It is great to see all of you. Yes. >> Yeah. Welcome back, Gary. I mean, uh, what a time. What a time. We had you on almost just a month ago today and and since we're off next week, I kind of want to zoom out and focus on the bigger picture. I mean, we know this rebalancing is a 5-day process and that started today. Silver is volatile. while it's currently, you know, testing that mid75 range on spot. Um, let's widen the lens, though. I mean, it's rallied roughly 150% last year. When you look at this pullback, does it kind of register? Is it, you know, structural damage? Is it simply just the market digesting a massive move? >> Personally, personally, [clears throat] I am surprised that we haven't seen any kind of a major correction in quite some time. the fact that when we look at uh gold for example on uh the 26th of December it hit its all-time record high close. This is bases the most active February futures contract 4547 and the fact that it came down to a low of about 4313 that traders is not by any definition a correction. >> It's a slight pullback. We can call it a number of things, but one thing that would be inappropriate in my opinion is to call this little tiny dip in gold a correction. >> Simply put, a correction is typically a sell-off of 23% or greater. It can be as deep as 61.8% in a bull market recover. And market technicians look at that as a deep but respectable correction. They don't look at it as a pivot from bullish to bearish. We have seen no technical evidence that that is occurring. And until we do, I think both precious metals, gold and silver, are running on all eight out of eight cylinders. Although most are 12 and I drive an electric, but nonetheless, it's driving at full steam. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, you know, last time we were on, you know, I was watching it this morning, you warned that, you know, silver had gone parabolic and that that a hard correction would be very normal, even healthy, as long as support held. I mean, you know, you take a look at it, what we're seeing on this correction. Is this what you were kind of warning about? Is it turning into something more than mean reversion? >> Uh, not really. If you see the move, and I'm I'm trying to put it so that we're looking at all of last year, which won't be that difficult. We've seen this market really move considerably. [clears throat] >> Yeah. >> Figuring that it was trading what? At at the lowest at about $30, traded to a high of over $80. This is based the most active March contract. There has been really no correction. The move itself from the former high on the 26th of December, $76, it comes down to $70. >> Yeah. While $6 in silver is a reasonable and sizable move, it certainly again doesn't qualify as a correction. >> Because when we look at the totality of the move from 30 to 80, $6 back is not any kind of a viable um percentage in what we look for in terms of a real correction. Simply put, we have not seen either gold or silver have a realistic correction pretty much all of last year. And this year is too early to tell. But again when we are pairing these precious metals against fiat currencies in this case against the US dollar the recent moves I know that came in in gold took gold to all-time record highs across the board in almost every currency not just the euro not just the dollar but pretty much all of the currencies. And that is a strength statement. Meaning regardless of what currency you pair it against, you're pairing paper against a asset that has for thousands of years had real intrinsic value. >> People more and more are not looking at currencies as having intrinsic value. And that to me is the key. >> Yeah, fair point. And so I mean if we you know spend the rest of the the this rebalancing week chopping between 74 78 uh you view that as accumulation right? I mean what's the danger zone? The level where you'd say this has gone from rotation into kind of real technical damage. >> Uh basically the March contract below 70. That's these dips. I I'll blow this up just a little bit. That's these lows that came in at the end of the year. Then it popped up and made its all-time record high Tuesday, January the 6th. Yes, it's come down for the last two days, but as long as silver stays above call at $71, if I want to kind of tune in, we are not looking at any change in terms of whether or not silver is in a bullish or bearish trend. Mhm. >> What we can say is we've lacked any kind of healthy correction. And so I always believe the caveat has got to be buyers beware because at any moment we could see a real correction take place if major players begin to liquidate long positions. I am still accumulating. I am still advising um in terms of our trade uh 95% of them initiate a long position rather than going short. Uh short to me in the futures markets in these metals at this particular time is asking my clients to stand on a train track with a train barreling down the track at 80 miles an hour and kind of saying that it will stop. >> Well, it may and it may not. The point is is the strength right now in gold and silver is really maxed out. There's huge momentum. Very few if any real corrections and so people are buying the dip. When we see the market sell off a couple of dollars, uh that is an advertisement. Oh, we missed this. We can continue to accumulate. I recommend. Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, that's a good point because I mean I I spoke this morning with a a former executive at a major boolean bank kind of insider in the space and his view was that you know the index rebalancing is typically short-term noise like you said and and and this kind of mechanical selling often attracts buyers willing to absorb supply. So I mean Gary when you when you look at today's price action holding around 75 7560 I mean do you see signs of that absorption? Are bids showing up to meet this rebalancing flow? I mean it it feels like people are buying it. >> I see uh gold and silver because they're both acting very sim uh in a similar manner. Trading near the recent all-time records selling off slightly traders entering the market buying that dip and moving it back up. >> Yeah. Again, in a normal scenario, even in a normal bullish scenario, it's not unusual for there to be a correction of 23, 38, even 50% and still look at it as bullish. In other words, we don't believe that when we see these minute sell-offs that a real pivot has taken place in which market sentiment has moved from bullish to bearish. And we've got so many fundamental factors going on in the world right now. Recent action by the United States against Venezuela. That one kind of, at least to me, came out of the blue. I'm not privy to inside information, but that is the kind of behavior that puts countries on edge because they don't know what a next move might be and who that might be against. Granted, the guy they grabbed was a brutal dictator according to everything I've read, but to go into a sovereign country and grab someone because of that is not behavior from a mature superpower that we have seen in any occasion in the recent past. And nothing like this has really happened since any of the major wars or even Korea or Vietnam. It's a different time. >> Yeah. >> And people are on edge because of it. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you see it, I mean, some of the volatility, I mean, looking at gold, you know, silver's obviously volatile. Gold, I mean, looking at it today, it feels like it's kind of a steady anchor. It's hovering right around that 4450 essentially flat on the day despite the noise that you're talking about in particularly in the rest of the complex. Uh you heard it. We're off next week. And I mean as we head into next week, what does gold stability tell you? I mean, if the the leaders refusing to drop, does that put a a floor under silver? And and you know, again, if the Fed turns more hawkish next week and pushes back on CS, is there a trap door here? You know, are we one hawkish comment away from a $200 drop? >> Personally, I don't see it. I think a big drop is going to be implemented by a major fundamental shift uh economic policy by the Fed. Um not cutting rates when the expectations were high. We're not I don't think it's going to be a statement by a political entity that moves this market uh bullish or bearish to a great extent. It is action by superpowers that no one was expecting whether it's Russia, China or the US that will have a dramatic effect. But I think that we're not seeing uh the international and economic boat being rocked to any great extent. >> Yeah. >> And that's a good thing. But we do know that the medals tend to run in times of uncertainty. We do have uncertainty in terms of action, but I don't see it being a political statement having that effect. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, if if gold sits here holding, you know, 4450 that handle through next week, I mean, are we setting up for a run towards 4650 later this month? I mean, what what are your thoughts? Well, I I see 4550 is a very achievable level. We're at 4460. And in terms of the numbers that I'm looking at throughout the year, I would not be surprised if we saw 47 and 48 by the second quarter of this year, if not sooner. I'm trying to stay away. I'm I'm good at calling prices, not very good at calling time parameters to get there because the pace at which we have seen these metals move, especially with the lack of any realistic correction has just kept this bullish momentum going. And there's that FOMO from regular speculators that watch the market really uh go supersonic and not take advantage of it. Which is why I tell my clients, you might want to slow your level of physical accumulation if you're a buyer, but you don't want to stop because even though it could come down, we're sitting above 4500. I believe we could see $5,000 by the end of the year or sooner. And that's not that much of a stretch. In fact, if gold and silver perform 50% of the gains they did last year, that is actually a a walk in the park. That would be achievable and not turn anybody's eyes going, "Wow, we did not expect this." >> Yeah. Yeah, that's a good point. Um, okay. Well, then let's first get to those price action just on silver again because I just got to ask you, I mean, you know, we need a kind of a a grounded playbook because we're not on air next week and we still have four more days of rebalancing flow ahead. Forget intraday noise. Give us kind of that wide ranges that matter. If if we dip, what's the buy zone? Is it 72 to 74? >> Absolutely. As long as silver stays above 71, you're solid. Yeah. >> Um that's the area that you want to look at. That is the series of bottoms that came in through December. The same with gold. As long as it remains above 4,300. Um if that maintains uh the price levels we see during the first quarter, expect the upside rallies to have a lot more energy than any kind of downside correction until it does come. In other words, we're bullish until we're not, till we're proven wrong. But price action has not proven a case that says we've seen any kind of a pivot from bullish to bearish. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look at last year, Gary. I mean, you and I since January covering this gold move all year long, uh, monthly, sometimes, you know, bi-weekly at some points. Um, anything surprise you? I mean everything, you know, you were expecting a little bit of a dip here at some point. I guess that'll come before the 5,000 on the gold. >> You would expect that, but if I expected a sizable correction last year, I would have been really wrong when you when you look at this market because, you know, even back in August, gold was at 3,400 and then it moves to 4,400. You get that thousand move in under a half a year. What we are witnessing is the intrinsic knowledge by large hedge funds, by speculators that fiat currencies have no weight when weighed against or paired against a currency. Now the US dollar has been the uh currency of choice for business transactions. It will continue to be >> but in ter and we can talk about inflation but aside from those two things when we talk about buying power of currencies how much loaf of bread uh gallon of milk uh car when you talk about buying power of any currency it's dramatically being reduced and consistently year in year out and I don't expect there to be a difference for one simple reason currencies are simply backed by trust in the government but not a hard asset protecting it like the old days. Even when we were on the gold standard in the United States uh till it it it finally went away and Nixon put that last nail in the coffin. >> It was a limited gold standard. It was a hybrid constructed gold standard. In other words, there wasn't x amount of gold to match dollars. And there are a few countries, Poland specifically, buying a lot, China aggressively buying a lot of gold. There's a reason that central banks continue to be aggressive accumulators of the metals, specifically gold. Silver's a little bit more cumbersome to store, but there's a reason that smart money is putting their assets that uh need to be liquid, so to speak, or central banks that need to have a big storehouse of wealth, they're putting more and more in gold and less in physical accumulation of dollars. >> Yeah. Yeah. We've been following it. I mean, central banks still continuing to pick it up. But I mean the fact is your calls last year were early and they were accurate. From your experience, I mean does this market feel like the early innings still of a bigger move or you know the later innings where risk management matters more here? I mean what are you telling your subscribers to expect this year? [sighs] >> One I say never count anything out to expect the unexpected. But all things being equal, until we see any kind of uh proof that a beginning of that pivot from bullish to bearish has occurred, we have to assume that these metals will remain with the overall market sentiment of bullish to exceedingly bullish. >> Well said. All right, G. I appreciate this. Uh thanks again. We're going to have you on as an update uh very very soon. Of course, you can go to the goldfor.com. Thanks for setting the table for us here. >> Thanks for having me. I do want to wish all of our viewers health, happiness, prosperity in this year 2026. >> Yeah. Amen. It's all we got, my friend. It's all we got. All right. Appreciate it. Thanks, Gary. >> Thank you. >> And that's it for us this week. And as I mentioned, the Kiko team is heading to Saudi Arabia next week to cover the future of commodities from the ground level. You can see that at Kiko Mining. So use the playbook Gary just gave you. This is a rebalancing is a 5-day process. We're only on day one. Watch the mid70s in silver. Watch that 45 4450 range anchor in gold. Short-term mechanical flows do create noise, but the chart tells you whether the structure is intact. For Kitco News, I'm Jeremy Saffron. Thanks again for watching. Be sure to hit subscribe. We'll see you on the flip side. [music]