'Silver Will Outperform EVERYTHING', $10k GOLD 'Piece of Cake': Gary Savage
Summary
Precious Metals Outlook: Gary Savage predicts that silver will outperform all other assets, with gold potentially reaching $10,000 per ounce in the current cycle.
Market Manipulation: Savage discusses the alleged price suppression by bullion banks, noting that they are losing control over gold and silver markets, which could lead to significant price increases.
Industrial Demand: The growing industrial demand for silver, particularly in electronics and renewable energy, is expected to drive true price discovery and exacerbate existing supply deficits.
Investment Strategy: Savage emphasizes investing in ETFs like GDX for exposure to mining stocks, avoiding individual company risks, and leveraging during intermediate dips for potential gains.
Commodity Super Cycle: He supports the idea of a commodity bull market, suggesting that gold and silver are in a strong position to benefit from this cycle, especially as other commodities like oil and uranium face cyclical challenges.
Market Timing: Savage advises selling precious metals when the market becomes overvalued, indicated by parabolic price moves and widespread public interest, to capitalize on gains.
Broad Market Analysis: Contrary to popular belief, Savage does not see the current stock market as a bubble, citing the infancy of AI and technological advancements as potential growth drivers.
Smart Money Tracker: Savage's newsletter focuses on long-term gains in the metals market, advocating for patience and strategic leverage to maximize returns over a yearly subscription period.
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where our goal is to make you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day and on this episode I'm thrilled to welcome Gary Savage to the program, precious metals analyst and president of the smart money tracker investing newsletter. We're going to explore the price suppression being perpetrated by bullion banks on both gold and silver today and why Gary thinks they've largely lost control of gold with silver next up to break free. Gary ultimately believes that silver will outperform everything, but he also thinks gold will soar to at least $10,000 an ounce this cycle. And he lays out his reasoning and the signs to look for that it's time to take profits. All of this and so much more ahead in my conversation with Gary Savage. Gary Savage, great to have you on Commodity Culture. I want to kick the conversation off with silver and a tweet you made a couple days ago where you said the cartel is again failing to drive silver back below that $37 support zone. The process of breaking the suppression in the silver market continues. So firstly, I've spoken to a lot of guests on this show regarding the manipulation of of precious metals. It just had Ed Steer on the show last week to discuss this very issue. But I'd love to get your take on firstly who the cartel is that is attempting to hold down silver and secondly why they are failing to push it below $37. Well, it's pretty obvious it's the bullion banks. um you know if if the authorities are not going to enforce the rules then you got a cash cow. You can you know you can um suppress price whenever you want to. You can make money on the downside and when you've made your money on your shorts you cover and you make money on the long side just like guaranteed money. you know, they get get some fines here and there, but um you know, if you're making you know, if you got to pay 900 million to make 10 billion, that's pretty good deal. And then why why are they failing to get it below 37 at this point? So they um the suppression in the gold market broke last year and I noted this at the time when they when they failed to drive and they tried multiple times tried to drive gold back below 2,000. they couldn't they couldn't uh get any selling pressure. They couldn't get any momentum going. So, they they they couldn't get it low enough to cover their shorts. So, it started a short squeeze and you can see what happened. We've got a 1500 point rally in, you know, a little over a year, year and a half I guess it is now. Um the suppression into miners broke several months ago. They're not able to hold them down anymore either. And I think it's in the process of breaking in silver. Um they they held it below 33 for for weeks and weeks and then they got a gift when the stock market, you know, had that kind of a mini crash in what was it? April and um and silver sold off pretty hard. Um, and you could you could tell they were um trying to or well they were they were covering their shorts which um produced this very aggressive rally in silver. So it it came back very quickly that was they were you know desperately trying to cover those shorts. Um, and then we got to that $33 level and they kept it suppressed below 33 for weeks and weeks and weeks and then and then we get the the breakout, but then you get the stock market crash. So, it pushes it back below it. They cover those shorts. They're back at 33. Weeks and weeks and weeks they, you know, held it at 33. When that broke, um, the next resistance zone was 30 37 3750ish. uh weeks and weeks holding it below that that broke. We got to 40 and I I mentioned at the time that there was we probably silver probably wasn't going to go through 40 on the first try. It's just a big round number and there was going to be some natural selling it and profit taking at $40 anyway. And um but I don't I don't think they're going to be able to to hold that either. and they've tried multiple times to drive it back below that 37. If they could get it back below that 37 3750ish, then I think they could probably hold it there again for multiple weeks. Uh but they're not they're not succeeding in driving it back below that. And I don't know that they will. And uh and if they can't by the end of the month, then I think we're going to get another test of $40. And I don't know if it'll break on the second try, but I think it will on the third try. you know, if they can't if we the Bulls can't get it through 40 on the second try, I think they're going to get it through there on the on the third try. And I I think silver's probably going to test $50 before the end of the year. And when it comes to the reasons for silver and gold price suppression, obviously, you mentioned it's an easy way for the bullion banks to make money. Is there a, you know, I I've spoken to some guests as well who believe there's a grander scheme to take the public's eye off of gold and silver's role as money through this price manipulation, through this volatility, convincing your average person that it's not worth owning gold and silver because there's no real upside potential. It's an ancient relic. I think in fact if you were to approach a random person on the street pretty much anywhere in the world and ask them about gold and silver, they would have no clue. Um, so in that sense, if that is their campaign, it seems it's quite successful at the moment. Do you believe there's that sort of I don't know if you call it a grand conspiracy to take the public's eye off gold and silver as money? No, I have a bit of a different take. Um, I don't think gold and silver is going to be used as money ever again. There's just not enough of it. Um, I doubt that we're ever going to tie the dollar or or any currencies to gold and silver again. Um, but gold and silver is the barometer, maybe you could say like the canary in the coal mine for inflation. So, in in 2007 2008 when the housing market was collapsing, the Fed started printing a lot of money, cutting rates, trying to prop the markets back up. And um the the problem was is they um they ignored the commodity markets. And so, you know, all of that liquidity that they wanted to go into the housing market and the stock market didn't stay in those markets. It it leaked into the commodity markets. Um, that's when we got that surge in oil to $147 and uh it just created massive inflation and and that's what um exacerbated the the recession. Um, and so I think they learned their lesson like if if they're going to, you know, try and manipulate asset markets and the and the asset markets they want going up are housing prices and stocks. That's good asset inflation. Everybody likes that asset inflation. Uh, what they don't want is commodity inflation. That causes um, you know, if it gets too high, it causes a recession. Especially oil. if the price of oil goes too high too fast, collapses middle class, lower class spending, and then you spiral down into a recession. So, they they learned their lesson. Now, um going forward, you could try and do one of two things. You could either try and um suppress all of the commodity markets, basically impossible. Or you could try and suppress the the barometer, the canary in the coal mine, which is basically is gold, but silver pretty much follows gold. So if if you can keep gold somewhat suppressed, you know, they can't stop the bull market, but they can keep it suppressed and slow it down, if you can do that, the rest of the commodity markets basically kind of stay in check. And it worked worked great. you know, we haven't had any serious commodity inflation until um well, it it started um coming out of the um I think that 8year cycle though was October of 20 22 I think. Um but it but it was you know creeping up and then um and then when the suppression of the gold market broke is basically at that point it was hopeless and they've you know they've created a deficit in the silver market for the last 5 years. So I think that I think there in the process of losing control of the silver market as well. They've already lost it in in the gold market and they've clearly lost it in the mining stocks and I I think they're about to lose all control of the silver market as well. And now a quick break to hear from our sponsor Ark Silver Gold. OSBM owner Ian Everard is considered one of the most honest and levelheaded gold and silver dealers in the United States. Praised even by his competitors. So give him a call today to take advantage of the specials right now. Silver kangaroos 2023 1oz coins mint fresh only $247 over spot. Mint fresh silver maple leaves 2025 coins 1 oz $2.87 over spot while supplies last. Reach out today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. How much does silver's industrial demand play a role in this whole scenario? Because obviously we hear a lot about its demand for for solar and it's just in everything. I mean the the amount of of different things that make up our modern civilization that have silver in them, all electronics, etc. And particularly when we look at potential upgrades to power grids to for AI data centers, all of this energy demand that's coming up on the horizon. How much do you think that industrial demand for silver will force true price discovery? Uh well, it's obviously it's a big part of the deficit problem that we we've had every year for 5 years. Uh and the problem is is the price of silver is just too low. So the the price needs to go up and um and then you'll you know supply and demand will balance out. Uh but the the problem with um suppressing price is that when it breaks, price doesn't just go back to where, you know, the the normal level, you know, quote unquote normal level would be. It it um pendulums way too far to the upside. And so the suppression of the gold market and the silver market for literally several decades um is almost certainly going to result in gold going much higher than it would have naturally if they had just let it trade normally. And I think the same thing for silver and that's you know I've made this prediction multiple times. I I the I think the price of gold is it's going to be a piece of cake to get to 10,000 uh before this bull market's over. and silver, you know, $100, that's just way too low. You know, I've said this, silver's going to be $100 silver is going to be a piece of cake, but that's way too low. I think 250 is probably going to be a piece of cake. And I think it's not unreasonable that silver could get to 500. Um, as we, you know, go way too far to the upside just because it's been held down for way too many years and it's created shortages and a and a deficit. And then like you said, there's there's so many industrial uses that are coming online that the demand for silver is just going to increase as we as we go along. Gold has been consolidating for around 4 months now in the $3,300ish range. As you mentioned, all the ingredients seem to be there to push the price higher. Do you think that's what's coming next? Do you think we could be overbought and due for a correction? What do you make of the recent price action on this fourmon consolidation? So, if you'll notice when when we broke the suppression at 2000, um what used to be a normal correction in gold about every 20 to 25 weeks, you would get this intermediate correction, something that lasts, you know, 6 to 8 to 12 weeks. Uh in other than, you know, like a minor daily cycle correction, which might last 5 to 10 days. Um but ever since that suppression broke, we're not getting normal intermediate corrections. They they they usually they would form as an ABC correction and it'll be you know a pretty deep scary correction. Maybe something that takes price back down to or close to the 200 day moving average or even below it. We haven't had any of those since the suppression broke in 2000. every single intermediate correction since then, including the present one, has formed as a sideways consolidation, which which tells me that that the the shorts are are in trouble. They're trying to get out of those short positions, and we just can't get a normal intermediate correction anymore. All we're getting is these sideways churns. Uh that allows the 200 day moving average, say, some time to catch up to price and then you get another leg higher. And as you said, we're we're about four months into this one. So, I think it's it's probably about to come to an end and we're going to get our next leg up, which I think will unfold before this uh before the year is over. I think gold is going to go to 4,000 somewhere between 4,000 and 4,300. Judging by how far um the the last rally went above the previous peak, we tacked gold tacked on about I think it was either 7 or 800 points. If we assume something similar, then our target zone would be somewhere between 4,100 and maybe 4,300 uh during the next rally. And then, you know, who knows? Maybe we get another sideways turn or maybe we get a normal ABC uh correction. But we're still early in the 8year cycle. I tend to think we're going to get our our final bull market move, you know, the parabolic phase where gold goes to 10,000 during this 8year cycle. So, um, somewhere around 40 between 46 and or 26 and 28, I would expect we'll get that final move in in gold and we get that big parabolic spike and you know, all your neighbors are buying gold and silver and when that happens, it's time to to sell your gold and silver. And what is your opinion on the question of gold revaluation in the US? Gold sitting at $42.22 on the Fed's balance sheet. The Fed recently released a paper examining gold revaluation in other countries. So, it's led to speculation that perhaps this is a move they're considering. Is this a realistic proposition in your view? And what could the potential implications of such a move be? Yeah, I don't I don't know what that would accomplish. I mean, they they obviously should value the gold at the at the market price, but you know, can't pay off our debt by revaluing gold unless you were to revalue it to, I don't know, 25,000, 50,000, but then you'd have to, you know, basically sell your gold or something. So, I I don't know. I I'm not really haven't really followed that. Sounds a bit like a conspiracy theory to me. But um but you know I I I do think that they should probably just value assuming there is any gold in Fort Knox value it at market price but you know are they going to sell it to pay the debt? I doesn't seem likely to me. Well both the gold and silver mining equities appear to be waking up. Uh you mentioned that that the suppression in that sector had ended as well. We have now seen the GDX and the SIL ETFs greatly outperforming the metals themselves as well as completely smashing the broad market. They're both up over 60% year to date. Do you think we're on the cusp of a significant bull cycle for the miners? And if so, how long could this go on for? And how high do you think prices could go? Well, we we've been in a bull cycle since that 8year cycle low in October of 22. Um, we're still in it. It's starting to accelerate a little bit because I'm like I said, I'm pretty sure that the suppression of the mining stocks uh broke as well several months ago. Um they've broken through the the last resistance uh until they get to the all-time highs, which I I want to say is around 68 on GDX. So, that would be um you know, I I think I think they're going to get there during the the next rally in gold. I think they're going to get to that 68. There'll probably be a pullback, maybe it may be it might take three attempts to get through that, but I think it, you know, with gold at 4,000 or above, I think they'll probably break out and have some kind of a sustained run and then maybe have to come back down and test that level during the next intermediate correction. But yeah, definitely we're we're in a bull phase and we're going to be uh until like I said 27 28 where whenever this tops maybe it tops sooner than that maybe it tops at the end of 26 you know if we go parabolic and 26 and we get to 10,000 we're getting pretty close to being you know the end of the bull market at that point but I I don't know when to p predict that's h going to happen but I know what to look for to say that it's getting to the end when I my neighbors start bragging to me about how money he's making and you know buying gold and silver then I need to sell my gold and silver to him. So there is a price at which you would sell your gold and silver physical because I I speak to some people who say that I will never sell my physical no matter what. This is like my generational wealth. This is my way of removing uh money from the financial system free of counterparty risk and I plan to sit on it forever. You're of the mind that there will come a time where, like you said, your neighbors bragging about making a bunch of money on gold and silver when it will be time to get out of the physical metal. Absolutely. All markets get overvalued. All markets get undervalued. When a market gets severely overvalued and in um a parabolic phase, you got to sell and you got to go looking for something that's undervalued. Otherwise, you're just riding these, you know, these big waves up and then you're watching all of your gains evaporate again. And it, you know, the the last bull market was 1980. Do you really want to wait 40 years for the next bull market? I don't. Um, and it, you know, if if the stock market is, you know, in some kind of, you know, if we're in a serious recession or a depression and the stock market is severely, you know, down 70 or 80% and and gold is at $10,000, well, absolutely. I'm going to sell my gold and silver that's extremely overvalued and buy stocks which would be extremely undervalued. So, no, I don't want to I'm not of that mindset that I'm just going to hang on to my gold and silver forever. We're in a bull market. bull market is going to end at some point. When I see signs that it's getting close to the end, then it's it's going to be time to sell my gold and silver. I like that pragmatic approach. And speaking of overvaluation, you mentioned the broad market there. It is tremendously overvalued by almost every metric. We can look at the cape ratio, the Buffett indicator, price to sales ratio, just being a few of the metrics. If we look on a historic basis, I think we're at all-time highs in in all of them. Um Howard Marx recently releasing a memo calling valuations worrisome. Do you think the big indices are in bubble territory here? Because we seem I I've spoken to so many people line up down the block of people who say we're headed for an epic crash in in the broad market or at least a grinding lower over the course of several years into a true bare market and yet we seem to keep inching higher. Um are we in a bubble here and if so what do you think it will take to burst it? No, we're not in a bubble. Um I'm not seeing any signs of a bubble yet. Um so the last two bull markets, the um well, I guess you'd have to use the Dow, but the Dow went up about 25 times and they lasted 20 plus years, 20 to 25 years. Well, we're only what 16 years into this and the S&P is only up nine times. So that's a pretty mild bull market. Uh, another thing is AI is still in its infancy. We're we're not into the crazy phase like we were in uh 2000 where where people were buying any stock that had.com in its in the name of the business even though it had no earnings whatsoever. So valuations are high but we haven't really even you know seen the the earnings yet that's going to come from from AI. So that that's why they're high. It's predicting that we're going to have big earnings from this new technology and also robotics and that there's just, you know, so much new technology that um is coming online and is still, you know, either in its infancy or adolescence. So I think we've probably got several more years. And I think again the signs are pretty obvious when you're in a bubble. price gets stretched. The I think the NASDAQ was like 60% above its 200 day moving average at that bubble top in 2000. We're not even remotely close to anything like that yet. Um I think we will be at some point and I think I think I'll hear my neighbors telling me that they bought, you know, such and such AI stock and they've made 100% in two weeks. And you know, when I when I see that, then yes, then we're in a bubble. Um, you know, and and buying companies that have no earthly chance of ever making any any profits. Uh, or or certainly not profits to justify the price that they're selling at. So, I think we will get a bubble. I don't think we're in a bubble right now. I just don't see any of the signs of it. And and when everybody's calling for a bubble, highly unlikely it's a bubble. Usually, you know, by the time we're actually in a bubble, all of those people that have been calling a bubble for years and years, now they've they've bought into the Kool-Aid and they they think that somehow this is is justified. And uh and when those people give up on their bubble idea and and buy into the it's justified this time, this time is different, then we're in a bubble. You've got a a very contrarian view to a lot of guests on the show, which I love because a lot of people I talk to say that for us to get to a true epic bull cycle for the mining sector, we need to see a rotation of capital come out of these tech stocks. And the the the narrative that you always hear out there is that, you know, we're in this massive bubble driven by AI and tech and that when it bursts, a lot of that capital is going to flee into the mining sector and that's what's going to drive the next leg up. But from your point of view, we're not in a bubble at the moment. And so you believe that the the broad market and the mining sector can can rise together. Is that correct? They can rise together. And we can also have a cyclical bare market in stocks. We could have a recession over the next couple years. And I I think we will if the war cycle starts to accelerate again. Um and if and if that happens, then stocks would go down and um and especially in a worse scenario, accelerating worse scenario, uh money's going to flee into what would be perceived as a safe haven of of gold. Um, so you could have a cyclical bare market in stocks which drives the final parabolic phase of the the long-term secular gold market and then and then the gold market tops and then the the money comes back into into stocks and you get that final um you know final bull market move in in the stock market which you know if we assume similar duration as the as the last bull markets could be like in 1930 or uh 2030, 2032, somewhere as late as that. But we we certainly could have a cyclical bare market in a recession here in the next year or two. And that that could help push money into the the metals market. I want to read something else you recently tweeted. You said, "It's too late in the intermediate cycle to be pressing stocks. Oil is in decline. Bitcoin has become risky. I don't like bonds. Uranium is probably stuck in a multi-month or multi-year consolidation. The only thing that looks appealing right now is precious metals. Now, going back to my earlier theme of us potentially entering a commodity super cycle, is that a theory you ascribe to that we're going to see more and more investment in hard assets? Um and and if this theory is proven to be what a lot of people says it is, we will see commodities across the board um vastly outperforming oil, uranium, copper, base metals, agriculture. Do you think that's how things will play out in the long term or does the prognosis on oil and uranium extend out further as well? What what are your overall thoughts on that commodity super cycle narrative? I do tend to think we're in a commodity uh bull market. I think it bottomed in 2020 when oil went to minus $50 or whatever it was. I mean, if if that's not the bell ringing that the bare market's over, I don't know what is. Uh we got our first leg up and then we've been especially oil has been kind of turning sideways. Um we've got a lot of supply of oil. It may take it may take an um an acceleration of the war cycle for uh for oil to uh come back up again. and you know really spike inflation. Uh right now oil um the intermediate cycles are making lower highs and lower lows which tells me you know oil is in a at least a cyclical bare market. Uh gold on the other hand is making higher intermediate highs and higher intermediate lows. So it's in a bull cycle. um uranium generally I would kind of think it's it would follow the energy markets but I think I think the world is going to drift more towards uranium so I think it is in a in a secular bull cycle but it it's had a pretty good move and usually when you get a big move like that you'll need some consolidation or pullback I know a couple years ago uh when uranium was was on a tear here and everybody was trying to convince me that that price could never correct in the uranium market. It was priced in a dark market and it, you know, it's just uranium is different than every other commodity. And I kept saying, well, I'm pretty sure sentiment is the same no matter what market it is. And all markets have corrections and we've been in a, you know, a two-year cyclical bare market for uranium since then. Now, the uranium stocks have had a nice move, but again, I think they're probably going to need to take a break for a while. Yeah, great assessment there. Uh because there is a lot of people who got involved in uranium when the stocks were screaming higher when the spat physical uranium trust came onto the scene and um not realizing that there's already been massive gains o over the prior several years and uh believing that there's still people saying when is uranium going to take off? it kind of already did. Um, so I I greatly appreciate that perspective. So you said the only thing that looks appealing right now is precious metals. Does that mean there's nowhere else you're looking to deploy capital at present? And when you say precious metals, are you looking at the mining sector as well as the metals? And if so, which areas of the mining sector do you think look most appealing at present? Do you think the large producers are still undervalued at at these gold prices? Are you looking further down the the chain at the developers and explorers? What are your thoughts there? I like all three. I like gold, I like silver, and I like mining stocks. I don't um I don't ever invest in individual companies. Um just too much company specific risk. Um, you know, you could you could try and diversify over 10 or 20 individual mining stocks or you could just buy GDX and you you probably you probably won't outperform GDX because some of those uh some of those miners will underperform, some of them will overperform. Um but in in aggregate you you know if you do outperform with your 20 um miners that you're going to have to keep an eye on 20 of them whereas I'm only going to keep an eye on GDX um it probably isn't going to be a significant a significant outperformance. So you know what's the point? you might as well just buy the ETF and then and then you don't have to worry about if the CFO tries, you know, embezzles a bunch of money from Pneumont or something like that. You don't you don't have that worry. Um I I tend to think I may be wrong here, but I tend to think when it's all said and done, I think silver is going to outperform everything. Now, it there there will certainly be some mining stocks, especially some juniors that are going to outperform silver, but all in all, I tend to think silver is probably going to outperform everything because it's I think it's the most undervalued commodity on the planet. And when um you know as as we you know I've noticed noted this before silver tends to come on towards the end not only at the the end of an intermediate cycle you'll start to get these big moves you know maybe even 7% in a day but also at the end of the of the bull market. Uh you'll you'll get this huge move at the end of the bull market. So, let's say let's say we get to $50 by the end of the year. And maybe it takes another year for silver to get to $100, but then it could go it could literally go from $100 to $500 in the last 3 months of the bull market. That's just how silver moves. You gold gets really expensive and some of that capital, you know, maybe is looking at $8 $9,000 gold and is like, well, silver's $100. I'm going to start putting money over here in silver. And it doesn't take much liquidity coming into the silver market to produce those huge moves towards the end of a bull market. And that's another another thing you want to look for to tell you that it's getting time to sell. uh when silver starts to have these really insane insanely large one day moves 7 10 15% in a day and when the gold silver ratio is back down somewhere between 20 and 30 to1 I think that's the indication that you you probably better start dancing pretty close to the door and you mentioned ETFs being the your preferred way of playing the sector which again I love to hear because for the vast majority of people they do not have the time to follow 20 companies like you're saying nor the knowledge of geology and all of the things required to understand particularly when you go down to the development the exploration space. I wanted to get your thoughts on the royalty streaming model. You know, your wheat and precious metals, your Franco Neadas. Is that another way you see to play the sector in in a bit of a lower risk way? You certainly could. It it would definitely well, you could say it was a lower risk way, but royal gold got, you know, the crap beat out of it recently, so it's certainly not foolproof. Um, again, you know, if you're just, you know, if all you're concerned about is percentage gain, I I think you could, you know, I don't know that you're going to outperform significantly. Now, I I guess you do get some dividends from those companies. Um, but I don't know that you're going to outperform significantly then as opposed to just, you know, putting your money in GDX. Uh but you can also you can also leverage um and that's what what I try and do in the SMT is uh since since we do have a breakout from a cup and handle pattern and I we are still pretty early in the 8year cycle and I tend to believe we're going to get our final bull market top during this 8year cycle which could be you know anywhere from 1 to 3 years away then what I what I'm trying to do is we try to leverage a little bit when we get an intermediate dip. It's been a little bit more difficult because we aren't really getting those ABC moves anymore. It was much easier to spot a bottom and we would get the the normal scary um ABC move down. Uh now we're getting these sideways turns. It's it's hard to spot when the churn is over and when it's ready to um start to um trend higher again. you almost just have to at some point just kind of buy and then just twiddle your thumbs and wait and you know trust that the you know bull markets by definition make higher highs. So uh at some point we're going to get a breakout and we're going to get a run and the next leg up. So you know if you can just be patient and buy at some point here then at some point it's going to break out and run to that next level which like I said I think is somewhere between 4,000 and 4,300. But you may have some frustration in the meantime like you know the last four months just been frustrating hasn't done anything and I think silver has kind of um transitioned into the you know once it hit $40 it's also kind of transitioned into this frustrating sideways turn as well. Well you mentioned the SMT. Why don't you tell us about that? The Smart Money Tracker investing newsletter. What what it is you do there and where people can find it. So, you know, you can just Google smart money tracker and that'll take you to um the the premium website. Um or I am on X at Gary Savage one. Um now, ever since we've ever since the beginning of this year, I've I've kind of changed how I do the SMT a little bit. Uh I'm mostly just focusing on the metals because we do have that breakout um above 2100 the breakout of the handle of that cup and handle pattern. So you know there there could certainly be markets that could outperform the metals but you're going to make plenty of money in the metals. You know I you don't have to find the absolute best stock to make money. All you got to do is get on a bull market and ride the bull market to its completion and you're going to make great money. And what I'm trying to do is um I don't do monthly subscriptions anymore. I just do a yearly. Um I want you to commit to a year. I'm going to make you money over the year. Doesn't make mean I'm going to make you money every day. I'm not a day trader. There are going to be periods where you're going to have draw downs or where we're just like not doing anything. Um the last four months in gold for the most part we've just been kind of sitting and twiddling our thumbs. Um maybe you know we we did some small trades in Bitcoin when it looked like it was ready to run. We made a little bit of money, but I'm I'm not you know if if you're going to get in for a yearly subscription in the metals, you need to understand I'm focused on the metals. Uh, and there's going to be dull periods where we're we're in a correction or a sideways consolidation and we're we're not going to do anything. So, if it's important to you to to click the mouse every day, it's not going to be for you. If it's important for you to make good money, you know, over 12 months riding a bull market, that's what I'm going to do. And we made really good money. um we get we try and get leveraged uh before um you know another intermediate move higher. We did that for the first half of the year. Made really good money. I I think most people are are saying they've made anywhere from 50 to 100%. And then I've been adamant, you know, if if you're going to trade anything, trade very small. Just don't lose anything. Don't lose those profits by overtrading while we're waiting for the next leg up to start. Um, I think it's pretty close to starting here. And then we will do the same thing. We'll add a little leverage and we'll ride the next leg up. And then we'll we'll do the same thing. We'll get on the sidelines and wait for the next uh intermediate rally. So that that's what I do. You have to be willing to commit to a year to me. I'm not going to guarantee I'm going to make you money every month. There's going to be months there. There could be multiple months where you're going to be setting twiddling your fingers or if we're trading something, it's going to be very small percentage of your portfolio. Um, we're not you basically we're maybe trying to get a base hit while we wait for the correct setup in the metals. But I am I am focused on the metals. I I think you're going to make plenty of money in the metals. There can certainly be stuff that will outperform the metals. Maybe uranium will be, but that's just not my market. It's not what I'm concentrating on and I don't care if uranium outperforms gold over the next four years. I just want to make good money in the market that I am familiar with and the market that has broken out of a 13-year cup and handle pattern and I think still has more years to go in this 8year cycle. Uh so um I will open the SMT for new subscriptions in December and then you know if if you want to sign up then I expect you to you're going to have to give me a year. I'll make you money over the year but I'm not going to guarantee I'm going to make you money in January or the first week of January. not going to guarantee that there aren't going to be draw downs like like right now we're we're getting positioned for the next move up but there there are draw downs while we watch you know while we get through this churning phase but once we get through it then we're going to have the next leg up and I think most everybody will double the gains that they made in uh during the first half of the year and you mentioned you're open for new subscriptions in December is there any way for people to get on a wait list I I'll just uh I'll post it to to X when Okay, right? When I'm ready to open it up uh to new subscriptions. Um and and I'll leave it open more than just one month. It'll it'll be open like from I'll I'll probably leave it open through January or February at least. Okay, great. I'll put a link in the description below to your ex profile so people can follow along and look out for that. Thank you so much, Gary, for coming on the show. It's been a blast. Oh, thanks for having me, Jesse. Thank you for joining us today. This episode is brought to you by Ark Silver Gold, Osmium. Take advantage of their specials right now. Silver kangaroos 2023 1oz coins only $247 over spot. Silver maple leaves 2025 1oz coins just $287 over spot. While supplies last, reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you. and pick up your commodity culture merch backed by a 100% quality guarantee. Link is in the description below and I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up tod date with the latest episodes.
'Silver Will Outperform EVERYTHING', $10k GOLD 'Piece of Cake': Gary Savage
Summary
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where our goal is to make you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day and on this episode I'm thrilled to welcome Gary Savage to the program, precious metals analyst and president of the smart money tracker investing newsletter. We're going to explore the price suppression being perpetrated by bullion banks on both gold and silver today and why Gary thinks they've largely lost control of gold with silver next up to break free. Gary ultimately believes that silver will outperform everything, but he also thinks gold will soar to at least $10,000 an ounce this cycle. And he lays out his reasoning and the signs to look for that it's time to take profits. All of this and so much more ahead in my conversation with Gary Savage. Gary Savage, great to have you on Commodity Culture. I want to kick the conversation off with silver and a tweet you made a couple days ago where you said the cartel is again failing to drive silver back below that $37 support zone. The process of breaking the suppression in the silver market continues. So firstly, I've spoken to a lot of guests on this show regarding the manipulation of of precious metals. It just had Ed Steer on the show last week to discuss this very issue. But I'd love to get your take on firstly who the cartel is that is attempting to hold down silver and secondly why they are failing to push it below $37. Well, it's pretty obvious it's the bullion banks. um you know if if the authorities are not going to enforce the rules then you got a cash cow. You can you know you can um suppress price whenever you want to. You can make money on the downside and when you've made your money on your shorts you cover and you make money on the long side just like guaranteed money. you know, they get get some fines here and there, but um you know, if you're making you know, if you got to pay 900 million to make 10 billion, that's pretty good deal. And then why why are they failing to get it below 37 at this point? So they um the suppression in the gold market broke last year and I noted this at the time when they when they failed to drive and they tried multiple times tried to drive gold back below 2,000. they couldn't they couldn't uh get any selling pressure. They couldn't get any momentum going. So, they they they couldn't get it low enough to cover their shorts. So, it started a short squeeze and you can see what happened. We've got a 1500 point rally in, you know, a little over a year, year and a half I guess it is now. Um the suppression into miners broke several months ago. They're not able to hold them down anymore either. And I think it's in the process of breaking in silver. Um they they held it below 33 for for weeks and weeks and then they got a gift when the stock market, you know, had that kind of a mini crash in what was it? April and um and silver sold off pretty hard. Um, and you could you could tell they were um trying to or well they were they were covering their shorts which um produced this very aggressive rally in silver. So it it came back very quickly that was they were you know desperately trying to cover those shorts. Um, and then we got to that $33 level and they kept it suppressed below 33 for weeks and weeks and weeks and then and then we get the the breakout, but then you get the stock market crash. So, it pushes it back below it. They cover those shorts. They're back at 33. Weeks and weeks and weeks they, you know, held it at 33. When that broke, um, the next resistance zone was 30 37 3750ish. uh weeks and weeks holding it below that that broke. We got to 40 and I I mentioned at the time that there was we probably silver probably wasn't going to go through 40 on the first try. It's just a big round number and there was going to be some natural selling it and profit taking at $40 anyway. And um but I don't I don't think they're going to be able to to hold that either. and they've tried multiple times to drive it back below that 37. If they could get it back below that 37 3750ish, then I think they could probably hold it there again for multiple weeks. Uh but they're not they're not succeeding in driving it back below that. And I don't know that they will. And uh and if they can't by the end of the month, then I think we're going to get another test of $40. And I don't know if it'll break on the second try, but I think it will on the third try. you know, if they can't if we the Bulls can't get it through 40 on the second try, I think they're going to get it through there on the on the third try. And I I think silver's probably going to test $50 before the end of the year. And when it comes to the reasons for silver and gold price suppression, obviously, you mentioned it's an easy way for the bullion banks to make money. Is there a, you know, I I've spoken to some guests as well who believe there's a grander scheme to take the public's eye off of gold and silver's role as money through this price manipulation, through this volatility, convincing your average person that it's not worth owning gold and silver because there's no real upside potential. It's an ancient relic. I think in fact if you were to approach a random person on the street pretty much anywhere in the world and ask them about gold and silver, they would have no clue. Um, so in that sense, if that is their campaign, it seems it's quite successful at the moment. Do you believe there's that sort of I don't know if you call it a grand conspiracy to take the public's eye off gold and silver as money? No, I have a bit of a different take. Um, I don't think gold and silver is going to be used as money ever again. There's just not enough of it. Um, I doubt that we're ever going to tie the dollar or or any currencies to gold and silver again. Um, but gold and silver is the barometer, maybe you could say like the canary in the coal mine for inflation. So, in in 2007 2008 when the housing market was collapsing, the Fed started printing a lot of money, cutting rates, trying to prop the markets back up. And um the the problem was is they um they ignored the commodity markets. And so, you know, all of that liquidity that they wanted to go into the housing market and the stock market didn't stay in those markets. It it leaked into the commodity markets. Um, that's when we got that surge in oil to $147 and uh it just created massive inflation and and that's what um exacerbated the the recession. Um, and so I think they learned their lesson like if if they're going to, you know, try and manipulate asset markets and the and the asset markets they want going up are housing prices and stocks. That's good asset inflation. Everybody likes that asset inflation. Uh, what they don't want is commodity inflation. That causes um, you know, if it gets too high, it causes a recession. Especially oil. if the price of oil goes too high too fast, collapses middle class, lower class spending, and then you spiral down into a recession. So, they they learned their lesson. Now, um going forward, you could try and do one of two things. You could either try and um suppress all of the commodity markets, basically impossible. Or you could try and suppress the the barometer, the canary in the coal mine, which is basically is gold, but silver pretty much follows gold. So if if you can keep gold somewhat suppressed, you know, they can't stop the bull market, but they can keep it suppressed and slow it down, if you can do that, the rest of the commodity markets basically kind of stay in check. And it worked worked great. you know, we haven't had any serious commodity inflation until um well, it it started um coming out of the um I think that 8year cycle though was October of 20 22 I think. Um but it but it was you know creeping up and then um and then when the suppression of the gold market broke is basically at that point it was hopeless and they've you know they've created a deficit in the silver market for the last 5 years. So I think that I think there in the process of losing control of the silver market as well. They've already lost it in in the gold market and they've clearly lost it in the mining stocks and I I think they're about to lose all control of the silver market as well. And now a quick break to hear from our sponsor Ark Silver Gold. OSBM owner Ian Everard is considered one of the most honest and levelheaded gold and silver dealers in the United States. Praised even by his competitors. So give him a call today to take advantage of the specials right now. Silver kangaroos 2023 1oz coins mint fresh only $247 over spot. Mint fresh silver maple leaves 2025 coins 1 oz $2.87 over spot while supplies last. Reach out today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. How much does silver's industrial demand play a role in this whole scenario? Because obviously we hear a lot about its demand for for solar and it's just in everything. I mean the the amount of of different things that make up our modern civilization that have silver in them, all electronics, etc. And particularly when we look at potential upgrades to power grids to for AI data centers, all of this energy demand that's coming up on the horizon. How much do you think that industrial demand for silver will force true price discovery? Uh well, it's obviously it's a big part of the deficit problem that we we've had every year for 5 years. Uh and the problem is is the price of silver is just too low. So the the price needs to go up and um and then you'll you know supply and demand will balance out. Uh but the the problem with um suppressing price is that when it breaks, price doesn't just go back to where, you know, the the normal level, you know, quote unquote normal level would be. It it um pendulums way too far to the upside. And so the suppression of the gold market and the silver market for literally several decades um is almost certainly going to result in gold going much higher than it would have naturally if they had just let it trade normally. And I think the same thing for silver and that's you know I've made this prediction multiple times. I I the I think the price of gold is it's going to be a piece of cake to get to 10,000 uh before this bull market's over. and silver, you know, $100, that's just way too low. You know, I've said this, silver's going to be $100 silver is going to be a piece of cake, but that's way too low. I think 250 is probably going to be a piece of cake. And I think it's not unreasonable that silver could get to 500. Um, as we, you know, go way too far to the upside just because it's been held down for way too many years and it's created shortages and a and a deficit. And then like you said, there's there's so many industrial uses that are coming online that the demand for silver is just going to increase as we as we go along. Gold has been consolidating for around 4 months now in the $3,300ish range. As you mentioned, all the ingredients seem to be there to push the price higher. Do you think that's what's coming next? Do you think we could be overbought and due for a correction? What do you make of the recent price action on this fourmon consolidation? So, if you'll notice when when we broke the suppression at 2000, um what used to be a normal correction in gold about every 20 to 25 weeks, you would get this intermediate correction, something that lasts, you know, 6 to 8 to 12 weeks. Uh in other than, you know, like a minor daily cycle correction, which might last 5 to 10 days. Um but ever since that suppression broke, we're not getting normal intermediate corrections. They they they usually they would form as an ABC correction and it'll be you know a pretty deep scary correction. Maybe something that takes price back down to or close to the 200 day moving average or even below it. We haven't had any of those since the suppression broke in 2000. every single intermediate correction since then, including the present one, has formed as a sideways consolidation, which which tells me that that the the shorts are are in trouble. They're trying to get out of those short positions, and we just can't get a normal intermediate correction anymore. All we're getting is these sideways churns. Uh that allows the 200 day moving average, say, some time to catch up to price and then you get another leg higher. And as you said, we're we're about four months into this one. So, I think it's it's probably about to come to an end and we're going to get our next leg up, which I think will unfold before this uh before the year is over. I think gold is going to go to 4,000 somewhere between 4,000 and 4,300. Judging by how far um the the last rally went above the previous peak, we tacked gold tacked on about I think it was either 7 or 800 points. If we assume something similar, then our target zone would be somewhere between 4,100 and maybe 4,300 uh during the next rally. And then, you know, who knows? Maybe we get another sideways turn or maybe we get a normal ABC uh correction. But we're still early in the 8year cycle. I tend to think we're going to get our our final bull market move, you know, the parabolic phase where gold goes to 10,000 during this 8year cycle. So, um, somewhere around 40 between 46 and or 26 and 28, I would expect we'll get that final move in in gold and we get that big parabolic spike and you know, all your neighbors are buying gold and silver and when that happens, it's time to to sell your gold and silver. And what is your opinion on the question of gold revaluation in the US? Gold sitting at $42.22 on the Fed's balance sheet. The Fed recently released a paper examining gold revaluation in other countries. So, it's led to speculation that perhaps this is a move they're considering. Is this a realistic proposition in your view? And what could the potential implications of such a move be? Yeah, I don't I don't know what that would accomplish. I mean, they they obviously should value the gold at the at the market price, but you know, can't pay off our debt by revaluing gold unless you were to revalue it to, I don't know, 25,000, 50,000, but then you'd have to, you know, basically sell your gold or something. So, I I don't know. I I'm not really haven't really followed that. Sounds a bit like a conspiracy theory to me. But um but you know I I I do think that they should probably just value assuming there is any gold in Fort Knox value it at market price but you know are they going to sell it to pay the debt? I doesn't seem likely to me. Well both the gold and silver mining equities appear to be waking up. Uh you mentioned that that the suppression in that sector had ended as well. We have now seen the GDX and the SIL ETFs greatly outperforming the metals themselves as well as completely smashing the broad market. They're both up over 60% year to date. Do you think we're on the cusp of a significant bull cycle for the miners? And if so, how long could this go on for? And how high do you think prices could go? Well, we we've been in a bull cycle since that 8year cycle low in October of 22. Um, we're still in it. It's starting to accelerate a little bit because I'm like I said, I'm pretty sure that the suppression of the mining stocks uh broke as well several months ago. Um they've broken through the the last resistance uh until they get to the all-time highs, which I I want to say is around 68 on GDX. So, that would be um you know, I I think I think they're going to get there during the the next rally in gold. I think they're going to get to that 68. There'll probably be a pullback, maybe it may be it might take three attempts to get through that, but I think it, you know, with gold at 4,000 or above, I think they'll probably break out and have some kind of a sustained run and then maybe have to come back down and test that level during the next intermediate correction. But yeah, definitely we're we're in a bull phase and we're going to be uh until like I said 27 28 where whenever this tops maybe it tops sooner than that maybe it tops at the end of 26 you know if we go parabolic and 26 and we get to 10,000 we're getting pretty close to being you know the end of the bull market at that point but I I don't know when to p predict that's h going to happen but I know what to look for to say that it's getting to the end when I my neighbors start bragging to me about how money he's making and you know buying gold and silver then I need to sell my gold and silver to him. So there is a price at which you would sell your gold and silver physical because I I speak to some people who say that I will never sell my physical no matter what. This is like my generational wealth. This is my way of removing uh money from the financial system free of counterparty risk and I plan to sit on it forever. You're of the mind that there will come a time where, like you said, your neighbors bragging about making a bunch of money on gold and silver when it will be time to get out of the physical metal. Absolutely. All markets get overvalued. All markets get undervalued. When a market gets severely overvalued and in um a parabolic phase, you got to sell and you got to go looking for something that's undervalued. Otherwise, you're just riding these, you know, these big waves up and then you're watching all of your gains evaporate again. And it, you know, the the last bull market was 1980. Do you really want to wait 40 years for the next bull market? I don't. Um, and it, you know, if if the stock market is, you know, in some kind of, you know, if we're in a serious recession or a depression and the stock market is severely, you know, down 70 or 80% and and gold is at $10,000, well, absolutely. I'm going to sell my gold and silver that's extremely overvalued and buy stocks which would be extremely undervalued. So, no, I don't want to I'm not of that mindset that I'm just going to hang on to my gold and silver forever. We're in a bull market. bull market is going to end at some point. When I see signs that it's getting close to the end, then it's it's going to be time to sell my gold and silver. I like that pragmatic approach. And speaking of overvaluation, you mentioned the broad market there. It is tremendously overvalued by almost every metric. We can look at the cape ratio, the Buffett indicator, price to sales ratio, just being a few of the metrics. If we look on a historic basis, I think we're at all-time highs in in all of them. Um Howard Marx recently releasing a memo calling valuations worrisome. Do you think the big indices are in bubble territory here? Because we seem I I've spoken to so many people line up down the block of people who say we're headed for an epic crash in in the broad market or at least a grinding lower over the course of several years into a true bare market and yet we seem to keep inching higher. Um are we in a bubble here and if so what do you think it will take to burst it? No, we're not in a bubble. Um I'm not seeing any signs of a bubble yet. Um so the last two bull markets, the um well, I guess you'd have to use the Dow, but the Dow went up about 25 times and they lasted 20 plus years, 20 to 25 years. Well, we're only what 16 years into this and the S&P is only up nine times. So that's a pretty mild bull market. Uh, another thing is AI is still in its infancy. We're we're not into the crazy phase like we were in uh 2000 where where people were buying any stock that had.com in its in the name of the business even though it had no earnings whatsoever. So valuations are high but we haven't really even you know seen the the earnings yet that's going to come from from AI. So that that's why they're high. It's predicting that we're going to have big earnings from this new technology and also robotics and that there's just, you know, so much new technology that um is coming online and is still, you know, either in its infancy or adolescence. So I think we've probably got several more years. And I think again the signs are pretty obvious when you're in a bubble. price gets stretched. The I think the NASDAQ was like 60% above its 200 day moving average at that bubble top in 2000. We're not even remotely close to anything like that yet. Um I think we will be at some point and I think I think I'll hear my neighbors telling me that they bought, you know, such and such AI stock and they've made 100% in two weeks. And you know, when I when I see that, then yes, then we're in a bubble. Um, you know, and and buying companies that have no earthly chance of ever making any any profits. Uh, or or certainly not profits to justify the price that they're selling at. So, I think we will get a bubble. I don't think we're in a bubble right now. I just don't see any of the signs of it. And and when everybody's calling for a bubble, highly unlikely it's a bubble. Usually, you know, by the time we're actually in a bubble, all of those people that have been calling a bubble for years and years, now they've they've bought into the Kool-Aid and they they think that somehow this is is justified. And uh and when those people give up on their bubble idea and and buy into the it's justified this time, this time is different, then we're in a bubble. You've got a a very contrarian view to a lot of guests on the show, which I love because a lot of people I talk to say that for us to get to a true epic bull cycle for the mining sector, we need to see a rotation of capital come out of these tech stocks. And the the the narrative that you always hear out there is that, you know, we're in this massive bubble driven by AI and tech and that when it bursts, a lot of that capital is going to flee into the mining sector and that's what's going to drive the next leg up. But from your point of view, we're not in a bubble at the moment. And so you believe that the the broad market and the mining sector can can rise together. Is that correct? They can rise together. And we can also have a cyclical bare market in stocks. We could have a recession over the next couple years. And I I think we will if the war cycle starts to accelerate again. Um and if and if that happens, then stocks would go down and um and especially in a worse scenario, accelerating worse scenario, uh money's going to flee into what would be perceived as a safe haven of of gold. Um, so you could have a cyclical bare market in stocks which drives the final parabolic phase of the the long-term secular gold market and then and then the gold market tops and then the the money comes back into into stocks and you get that final um you know final bull market move in in the stock market which you know if we assume similar duration as the as the last bull markets could be like in 1930 or uh 2030, 2032, somewhere as late as that. But we we certainly could have a cyclical bare market in a recession here in the next year or two. And that that could help push money into the the metals market. I want to read something else you recently tweeted. You said, "It's too late in the intermediate cycle to be pressing stocks. Oil is in decline. Bitcoin has become risky. I don't like bonds. Uranium is probably stuck in a multi-month or multi-year consolidation. The only thing that looks appealing right now is precious metals. Now, going back to my earlier theme of us potentially entering a commodity super cycle, is that a theory you ascribe to that we're going to see more and more investment in hard assets? Um and and if this theory is proven to be what a lot of people says it is, we will see commodities across the board um vastly outperforming oil, uranium, copper, base metals, agriculture. Do you think that's how things will play out in the long term or does the prognosis on oil and uranium extend out further as well? What what are your overall thoughts on that commodity super cycle narrative? I do tend to think we're in a commodity uh bull market. I think it bottomed in 2020 when oil went to minus $50 or whatever it was. I mean, if if that's not the bell ringing that the bare market's over, I don't know what is. Uh we got our first leg up and then we've been especially oil has been kind of turning sideways. Um we've got a lot of supply of oil. It may take it may take an um an acceleration of the war cycle for uh for oil to uh come back up again. and you know really spike inflation. Uh right now oil um the intermediate cycles are making lower highs and lower lows which tells me you know oil is in a at least a cyclical bare market. Uh gold on the other hand is making higher intermediate highs and higher intermediate lows. So it's in a bull cycle. um uranium generally I would kind of think it's it would follow the energy markets but I think I think the world is going to drift more towards uranium so I think it is in a in a secular bull cycle but it it's had a pretty good move and usually when you get a big move like that you'll need some consolidation or pullback I know a couple years ago uh when uranium was was on a tear here and everybody was trying to convince me that that price could never correct in the uranium market. It was priced in a dark market and it, you know, it's just uranium is different than every other commodity. And I kept saying, well, I'm pretty sure sentiment is the same no matter what market it is. And all markets have corrections and we've been in a, you know, a two-year cyclical bare market for uranium since then. Now, the uranium stocks have had a nice move, but again, I think they're probably going to need to take a break for a while. Yeah, great assessment there. Uh because there is a lot of people who got involved in uranium when the stocks were screaming higher when the spat physical uranium trust came onto the scene and um not realizing that there's already been massive gains o over the prior several years and uh believing that there's still people saying when is uranium going to take off? it kind of already did. Um, so I I greatly appreciate that perspective. So you said the only thing that looks appealing right now is precious metals. Does that mean there's nowhere else you're looking to deploy capital at present? And when you say precious metals, are you looking at the mining sector as well as the metals? And if so, which areas of the mining sector do you think look most appealing at present? Do you think the large producers are still undervalued at at these gold prices? Are you looking further down the the chain at the developers and explorers? What are your thoughts there? I like all three. I like gold, I like silver, and I like mining stocks. I don't um I don't ever invest in individual companies. Um just too much company specific risk. Um, you know, you could you could try and diversify over 10 or 20 individual mining stocks or you could just buy GDX and you you probably you probably won't outperform GDX because some of those uh some of those miners will underperform, some of them will overperform. Um but in in aggregate you you know if you do outperform with your 20 um miners that you're going to have to keep an eye on 20 of them whereas I'm only going to keep an eye on GDX um it probably isn't going to be a significant a significant outperformance. So you know what's the point? you might as well just buy the ETF and then and then you don't have to worry about if the CFO tries, you know, embezzles a bunch of money from Pneumont or something like that. You don't you don't have that worry. Um I I tend to think I may be wrong here, but I tend to think when it's all said and done, I think silver is going to outperform everything. Now, it there there will certainly be some mining stocks, especially some juniors that are going to outperform silver, but all in all, I tend to think silver is probably going to outperform everything because it's I think it's the most undervalued commodity on the planet. And when um you know as as we you know I've noticed noted this before silver tends to come on towards the end not only at the the end of an intermediate cycle you'll start to get these big moves you know maybe even 7% in a day but also at the end of the of the bull market. Uh you'll you'll get this huge move at the end of the bull market. So, let's say let's say we get to $50 by the end of the year. And maybe it takes another year for silver to get to $100, but then it could go it could literally go from $100 to $500 in the last 3 months of the bull market. That's just how silver moves. You gold gets really expensive and some of that capital, you know, maybe is looking at $8 $9,000 gold and is like, well, silver's $100. I'm going to start putting money over here in silver. And it doesn't take much liquidity coming into the silver market to produce those huge moves towards the end of a bull market. And that's another another thing you want to look for to tell you that it's getting time to sell. uh when silver starts to have these really insane insanely large one day moves 7 10 15% in a day and when the gold silver ratio is back down somewhere between 20 and 30 to1 I think that's the indication that you you probably better start dancing pretty close to the door and you mentioned ETFs being the your preferred way of playing the sector which again I love to hear because for the vast majority of people they do not have the time to follow 20 companies like you're saying nor the knowledge of geology and all of the things required to understand particularly when you go down to the development the exploration space. I wanted to get your thoughts on the royalty streaming model. You know, your wheat and precious metals, your Franco Neadas. Is that another way you see to play the sector in in a bit of a lower risk way? You certainly could. It it would definitely well, you could say it was a lower risk way, but royal gold got, you know, the crap beat out of it recently, so it's certainly not foolproof. Um, again, you know, if you're just, you know, if all you're concerned about is percentage gain, I I think you could, you know, I don't know that you're going to outperform significantly. Now, I I guess you do get some dividends from those companies. Um, but I don't know that you're going to outperform significantly then as opposed to just, you know, putting your money in GDX. Uh but you can also you can also leverage um and that's what what I try and do in the SMT is uh since since we do have a breakout from a cup and handle pattern and I we are still pretty early in the 8year cycle and I tend to believe we're going to get our final bull market top during this 8year cycle which could be you know anywhere from 1 to 3 years away then what I what I'm trying to do is we try to leverage a little bit when we get an intermediate dip. It's been a little bit more difficult because we aren't really getting those ABC moves anymore. It was much easier to spot a bottom and we would get the the normal scary um ABC move down. Uh now we're getting these sideways turns. It's it's hard to spot when the churn is over and when it's ready to um start to um trend higher again. you almost just have to at some point just kind of buy and then just twiddle your thumbs and wait and you know trust that the you know bull markets by definition make higher highs. So uh at some point we're going to get a breakout and we're going to get a run and the next leg up. So you know if you can just be patient and buy at some point here then at some point it's going to break out and run to that next level which like I said I think is somewhere between 4,000 and 4,300. But you may have some frustration in the meantime like you know the last four months just been frustrating hasn't done anything and I think silver has kind of um transitioned into the you know once it hit $40 it's also kind of transitioned into this frustrating sideways turn as well. Well you mentioned the SMT. Why don't you tell us about that? The Smart Money Tracker investing newsletter. What what it is you do there and where people can find it. So, you know, you can just Google smart money tracker and that'll take you to um the the premium website. Um or I am on X at Gary Savage one. Um now, ever since we've ever since the beginning of this year, I've I've kind of changed how I do the SMT a little bit. Uh I'm mostly just focusing on the metals because we do have that breakout um above 2100 the breakout of the handle of that cup and handle pattern. So you know there there could certainly be markets that could outperform the metals but you're going to make plenty of money in the metals. You know I you don't have to find the absolute best stock to make money. All you got to do is get on a bull market and ride the bull market to its completion and you're going to make great money. And what I'm trying to do is um I don't do monthly subscriptions anymore. I just do a yearly. Um I want you to commit to a year. I'm going to make you money over the year. Doesn't make mean I'm going to make you money every day. I'm not a day trader. There are going to be periods where you're going to have draw downs or where we're just like not doing anything. Um the last four months in gold for the most part we've just been kind of sitting and twiddling our thumbs. Um maybe you know we we did some small trades in Bitcoin when it looked like it was ready to run. We made a little bit of money, but I'm I'm not you know if if you're going to get in for a yearly subscription in the metals, you need to understand I'm focused on the metals. Uh, and there's going to be dull periods where we're we're in a correction or a sideways consolidation and we're we're not going to do anything. So, if it's important to you to to click the mouse every day, it's not going to be for you. If it's important for you to make good money, you know, over 12 months riding a bull market, that's what I'm going to do. And we made really good money. um we get we try and get leveraged uh before um you know another intermediate move higher. We did that for the first half of the year. Made really good money. I I think most people are are saying they've made anywhere from 50 to 100%. And then I've been adamant, you know, if if you're going to trade anything, trade very small. Just don't lose anything. Don't lose those profits by overtrading while we're waiting for the next leg up to start. Um, I think it's pretty close to starting here. And then we will do the same thing. We'll add a little leverage and we'll ride the next leg up. And then we'll we'll do the same thing. We'll get on the sidelines and wait for the next uh intermediate rally. So that that's what I do. You have to be willing to commit to a year to me. I'm not going to guarantee I'm going to make you money every month. There's going to be months there. There could be multiple months where you're going to be setting twiddling your fingers or if we're trading something, it's going to be very small percentage of your portfolio. Um, we're not you basically we're maybe trying to get a base hit while we wait for the correct setup in the metals. But I am I am focused on the metals. I I think you're going to make plenty of money in the metals. There can certainly be stuff that will outperform the metals. Maybe uranium will be, but that's just not my market. It's not what I'm concentrating on and I don't care if uranium outperforms gold over the next four years. I just want to make good money in the market that I am familiar with and the market that has broken out of a 13-year cup and handle pattern and I think still has more years to go in this 8year cycle. Uh so um I will open the SMT for new subscriptions in December and then you know if if you want to sign up then I expect you to you're going to have to give me a year. I'll make you money over the year but I'm not going to guarantee I'm going to make you money in January or the first week of January. not going to guarantee that there aren't going to be draw downs like like right now we're we're getting positioned for the next move up but there there are draw downs while we watch you know while we get through this churning phase but once we get through it then we're going to have the next leg up and I think most everybody will double the gains that they made in uh during the first half of the year and you mentioned you're open for new subscriptions in December is there any way for people to get on a wait list I I'll just uh I'll post it to to X when Okay, right? When I'm ready to open it up uh to new subscriptions. Um and and I'll leave it open more than just one month. It'll it'll be open like from I'll I'll probably leave it open through January or February at least. Okay, great. I'll put a link in the description below to your ex profile so people can follow along and look out for that. Thank you so much, Gary, for coming on the show. It's been a blast. Oh, thanks for having me, Jesse. Thank you for joining us today. This episode is brought to you by Ark Silver Gold, Osmium. Take advantage of their specials right now. Silver kangaroos 2023 1oz coins only $247 over spot. Silver maple leaves 2025 1oz coins just $287 over spot. While supplies last, reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you. and pick up your commodity culture merch backed by a 100% quality guarantee. Link is in the description below and I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up tod date with the latest episodes.