US Small Caps: Strong rotation toward small caps with the Russell 2000 outperforming for multiple sessions and rising ~53% since April's lows; hosts express bullishness on small caps despite risks from higher yields.
Market Breadth: Concentration remains high with Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet together near 30% of the S&P 500, yet recent relative underperformance suggests a baton pass to the broader market.
Macro and Yields: Bond yields rose in Japan and the U.S. even as inflation falls, stoking volatility; hosts argue geopolitical noise matters less if earnings and growth stay robust.
Safe Havens and Crypto: Gold and silver spiked on geopolitical uncertainty while Bitcoin lagged, undercutting the “anti-system” narrative for crypto during stress.
Economy and Consumers: Discussion highlights potential for a ‘hot’ U.S. economy given fiscal, monetary, and credit levers; consumer health appears solid with Bank of America data showing falling net charge-offs.
Tokenized Securities: The NYSE’s plan for on-chain settlement (24/7 trading, instant settlement) could modernize market plumbing and address slow traditional settlement processes.
Housing and Wealth Transfer: Mortgage rate mix is normalizing and a large real-estate-linked wealth transfer to Gen X and Millennials may gradually unlock housing supply and reshape advisor relationships.
Outlook: Geopolitical volatility likely persists, but if earnings hold, broader participation and small-cap strength could continue.
Transcript
Today's animal spirits is brought to you by Y Charts. Client meetings move fast in Q1, but Y Charts has you covered. Their popular top 10 visuals deck is packed with readytouse charts that cut prep time and make client conversations easier. The deck covers the conversations clients actually want to have from long-term investing to portfolio allocation, retirement, and setting expectations early in the year. >> That's right, Ben. Everything is fully customizable, easy to brand with your firm's logo, and constantly updated with new visuals and fresh materials as markets change, so you're never sharing something outdated. Instead of starting from scratch for every meeting, this gives you a simple way to stay prepared and keep conversations focused. Grab your free copy with a link in the show notes, and you get 20% off your initial Y charts professional subscription when you start your free Y Charts trial through Animal Spirits. New customers only. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Ben, how was your weekend? Did you you avoided that nasty car mashup on the highway? >> Oh yeah. 100 cars. My My kids kept wanting to see pictures of it. >> Where was it? Was it near you or other side of the state or what? >> 20 minutes away probably. >> Oh. Oh. >> Oh yeah. No. Highway we take all the time. Yes. Uh blizzard conditions in Michigan. Kids had a snow day today. >> What a great feeling, right? Don't set your alarms, kids. We're going to see if it's a snow day. They wake up and it's kind of like Christmas morning. You know, they wake up, realize it's a snow day. My son was all dressed and ready for school, and we told him it was a snow day, and he went and took all his clothes off, and put his PJs back on. >> That's one of the best feelings as a child. >> So pumped. That's like one of one of the good things about having this kind of weather. >> Legs up, Jerry Springer. What could be better? >> Yes. Yes. Exactly. >> All right. Um, it is Tuesday morning, 9:08, 22 minutes away from the opening bell, which you won't hear on my computer. and uh a little bit of volatility. Futures are down, gold is surging, VIX is up to 20. Uh and the reason the source of the indigestion is uh the president's desire to annex, am I using that word properly? >> I don't know. That might been a stretch. >> Denmark. Well, you're adding annexing is to like add a uh Yeah, kind of. Yeah, I guess. Yeah. >> Uh so the president is trying to take Denmark, I'm sorry, Greenland from Denmark. Apparently, there is strategic interest for us. I don't know. Being closer to Europe, we could rule with the stronger fist and there's some rare earths and minerals and I don't know. >> You're forgetting that there's the green in the land there. >> Very green. >> A lot of land. um nonsensical if you ask me. Uh markets don't like it. And the reason why why uh they're responding the way they are is because uh European leaders are saying, "What are you doing? You're not you're not just taking Greenland." Uh and uh actually, you know what? Greenland is icy. Didn't did you learn nothing from Mighty Ducks 2? And Iceland is green. >> Yeah, it's the opposite. But Iceland does have ice too though, right? >> Okay. Well, anyway, um for the European countries that are standing in the president's way, we're talking about a 10% tariff and that's going to be increasing to 25% on June 1st. Uh so, so wait, so we're trying he's trying to purchase a country. Okay, I guess that's what that's what he's doing. Yeah, listen. Give us Greenland or we're going to tax our own citizens. Take that. Um, I don't know if this means anything. It probably doesn't, but um, I want to read you something that I'm reading this book or listening to this book. It's an audible. I don't know if it's necessarily a recommendation for you. It's called 1913, In Search of the World Before the Great War. Can't remember who recommended it, someone on Twitter. And it basically just looks at what the world was like heading into World War I. And looking back with hindsight, you think, man, it was so obvious that this was going to happen. like all these countries were like gearing up and they just wanted to fight. But this book kind of takes a a contrarian take of if you look at what was actually going on in these cities, it you wouldn't have ever thought this was going to happen, right? It it wasn't as as clear-cut as you thought. And it was just like the whole point of the book is like the world order shifted over the next 30 years in ways that weren't possibly imaginable in 1913. He goes through all the different cities, what was happening in London and Rome and Berlin and like the stuff you hear. It was like you could travel as a German citizen to the UK without a passport. It was like think open borders and it was kind of like not what you would think because the world got more insular after that obviously. So listen to this. I want to it's kind of long but I think it's worth a read. >> All right. You have my attention. >> A European could survey the world in 1913 as the Greek gods might have surveyed it from the snowy heights of Mount Olympus themselves above the teeming earth below. To be a European from this perspective was to inhabit the highest stage of human development. Past civilizations might have built great cities, invented algebra, or discovered gunpowder, but none could compare to the material and technological culture to which Europe had given rise, made manifest in the continent's unprecedented wealth and power. To be a European, a European man in particular, was to see oneself at the center of the universe from which all distance was measured and against all of clocks were set. >> Replace the date, replace the name, and you're talking about the US today. Okay? I I it was just interesting to to read and not it it always seems like the the world order today is set and you kind of have a recency bias of of course the US is going to be the leader forever, right? Um and I I'm I'm still wildly bullish on the US over the long term because I think we have tons of tons of uh built-in advantages and such, but I just don't think that this I think we just can't take for granted the fact that we have the position of power we do and I don't think we should abuse that power. >> Agreed. And and it's funny because people have been saying like the fall of the Roman Empire for us for decades now, but it already happened in Europe. Europe is the example of a fallen empire and I feel like people don't ever talk about it like that was the Roman Empire that fell. >> Yeah. I'm not worried about American exceptionalism or our advantages. I think these things move at a glacial speed. But and also >> it's not to dismiss the position of power and privilege that we have and treating our trade partners and our allies this way and and and leading for abusing this power. It's not good. >> But you know what what the what the what do you call it? The sort of counterbalance there is the financial markets. Like if if things get taken too far the and the bond market yields bond market start selling off and yields spike higher and the stock market sells off. That's the transistor there. Like that's the thing that's going to Don't you think that's the one >> that that's what saved us from having those tariffs that could have been so bad in in April. And people say, "Well, it's a negotiating ploy or whatever." But the financial markets I still think are the the arbiter of like putting a ceiling on some of these things. >> Yeah. Uh how did you how did you get the um how did you clip that section? Because I've I've tried to I've like Google like how do you I'm listening to an audio book. It would be cool if I could like read alongside of it or clips. How do How do you do that? >> Yeah. Yeah. So, you hit the clip button in there. It's like 30 seconds long. >> Oh, >> but honestly, after this, I liked it so much I um I bought the Kindle, too. There should be a You should get a deal on the Kindle, right? >> If you buy the Audible, right? >> So, when I'm listening to an earnings call, it's very nice to be able to listen and also see the text while you're listening. It's like it's like subtitles. And if your eyes scroll ahead and you're bored, whatever, you just jump to the next part. >> Not that I want to do it with a book, but >> Amazon, give us a call. All right. So, >> maybe these things are are one and the same. Like what matters more right now? And it's kind of funny to say like the markets are like having volatility because we just hit an alltime high last week on Friday, I think. So, it's like okay, we have one whatever one down day. Uh, so is it Greenland or bond yield? And maybe these things are interconnected, but people I I saw a bunch of people posting the Japan yields this morning. Uh, here's one. Japan's 30 yield 30-year yields rocketed 26 basis points higher toward 4%. And you can see in this chart, right, Japan bond yields look like they're going vertical. It looks like a chart of gold or Bitcoin or something crazy that's going up. Now, here's my question as a macro tourist. Okay? For 30 to 40 years, Japan's bond yields were on the floor. Okay? Couldn't go anywhere. They were really, really low and their economy stagnated. So, why isn't this actually a good thing? Because the yield curve is steepening. is that I mean listen this is a total tourist question and obviously the reason for the yields m but they're saying hey listen um they're going to it their yields are soaring because they're going to cut taxes isn't this like >> they're trying to grow the Japanese economy isn't this a positive sign >> two things I have no idea what's happening in Japan >> yeah I'm a total macro tourist admittedly >> like I so I couldn't even begin to tell you but like the opposite of bad is not good always the right because this is another extreme So if shorting shorting Japanese bonds used to be called the widowmaker because surely they had to go up and they just didn't. >> Yes. >> But all right zero is bad but vertical is not good either. I mean this is not like a slow and steady creep up like they're going straight up. >> And when government borrowing costs rise like this I don't know. It's not this is not a good thing. Yield like government bond yield going vertical is never good. >> That's fair. The opposite of good is not bad. that that's a I have to think about that one a little longer, but I think you you're kind of right. Maybe 40% right. Okay, so Kevin Gordon posted a picture of the US 30-year Treasury and it's not going vertical. It's going up, but this is the kind of thing where I'm going to be like the Titanic captain going down with the ship on this. Like I if bond yields in the US go up and down and up and down, I feel like they've every time they go up, people really worry something wrong is going to happen. And I'm always poo pooing this because I think unless like they really spike in a meaningful way, I'm not going to worry about them just going in some rangebound pattern. >> I'm going to be the last person to worry about this. >> Yeah, I I mean I would mostly agree with you. Like every But it does seem like every time they get up here, at least over the past two years, they've come back down. >> Yes. >> The like would you what if what if they shoot past 5%. >> Let's just imagine that there's technical analysis on yields and they're at like 5 and a half% 6%. >> The weird The weird part about it is that inflation keeps falling. So bond yields are rising while inflation is falling. So I guess what that would tell you is it's investor positioning that people are selling treasuries. >> Well, it's I think it's just uh I think it's political instability. >> That's what I mean. >> And I think that's that's obviously why like gold is gapping up higher this morning as are all precious metals. I just keep wondering like why isn't the dollar responding? Like why aren't they selling dollars if if that's if all the heming and hawing is over political two true currencies aren't moving. Bitcoin not moving either. >> Well, Bitcoin's going down. I know you're kidding, but um >> No, but I I still think the the fact that we're seeing this political upheaval and gold and silver are the ones reacting and not Bitcoin is an interesting development. Very interesting in my in my opinion. I wouldn't have guessed this if you would have told me this a couple years ago. Hey, this is all the stuff that's going to happen geopolitically. Which one is going to spike? Gold, silver, or Bitcoin? I would have said probably Bitcoin, and I would have been wrong. >> Don't you think this is just another one of the narrative violations of Bitcoin that this was this was supposed this was it was supposed to be the anti-system play and it's not acting like that? >> No, it's totally it's risk on, risk off, at least for the most part. Maybe it'll I mean, could change one day, but has not yet. You're right. Um, all right. So, yeah, let's talk about the stock market. But hey, listen. In in six months, this Greenland stuff that like is it going to matter? >> Probably not. >> Uh I mean, I hope not. I I I I'm not taking this like threat seriously. Maybe I should. I don't know. The idea of just taking another country seems completely preposterous. >> Yeah, >> that's why >> we're just taking countries. Like for what? I don't. It's >> I'm at a loss. I was I was watching I was watching the Knicks. I went to the I took my family to the Knicks game yesterday and the Knicks are just completely unraveling and it's one of those things that's just so confoundingly I don't even know where to begin. I like my friend and I were texting. We're at a loss. I don't even know what to say. What happened? The wheels fell off so fast. I'm genuinely like I don't even know what to say. What's happening? And I feel sort of that way with with what we're doing now with Greenland. like is this >> the Pistons sucked all your energy out? Admittedly, I don't I'm not watching NBA regular season basketball yet. I I there's too much football on for me to care about. >> Yeah, the Nick's not the point, but I'm just the point is like I don't even know what to say. It's just >> deep breath in, deep breath out. Um, okay. This is a good chart uh uh from Apollo. So, we've obviously looked at concentration in a million different ways, right? I I I've never seen it though done this way. So the chart that they made is the combined weight because we've we've had periods of time where there has been concentration. Um the last time we saw extreme concentration like just two stocks was it was it AT&T and General Electric or AT&T and General Motors? I can't remember. >> General Motors. Yeah. >> Okay. >> AT&T was like 12% of the total or something. This is like the 30s and General Motors was like 10. It was it was a high number for those two. Yes. So, we've seen we've seen concentration before, but we've never seen it like this where he's looking at the combined weight of stocks with a 3% or more weight in the S&P 500. >> The combined weight of weight. Okay. >> Right. >> Okay, I got it. >> So, uh, now this only goes back to 95 and I'm guessing because if you take it back farther, it's less radical. So this is Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google. Probably like probably those five I would I would guess. Let's see. Yeah, those are the ones with 3% weight or above. Those five. >> So those five are 30% of the market. >> And interestingly, we've been doing a lot of uh Matt's been doing a lot of chart work on this. The MAG 7 versus the MAG versus the 493, like the ratio, it's breaking down. meaning the Mac 7 have been underperforming the rest of the market on a relative basis which um I guess like tell me in six months I'll tell you in six months whether that was good or bad but I like the idea of passing the baton giving some other >> speaking of stocks I've been I've been floating this theory out to you for the past few weeks a little bit our small caps of 2026 the international stocks of 2025 so this is from the Wall Street Journal small cap stocks finished week at records Friday marked the 11th straight session of the Russell 2000 beating the S&P 500. The Russell is up a lot more than the S&P and the NASDAQ this year. >> That's weird. 11 straight sessions. >> It's a lot, right? >> I'm going to ask Matt to chart this. >> Um, so they're talking about the, like you said, the rotation trade and it says booied by robust GDP growth and strong corporate earnings, investors have been shifting from mega cap tech stocks in favor of stocks poised to benefit from economic reaceleration such as industrials, energy companies, and small caps. And this is the kind of thing that in six months why the geopolitics stuff doesn't matter if earnings are still going gang busters and GDP growth is strong. No one cares about geopolitics. Not in the markets. Okay. Um look at the Russell 2000 chart. This thing is taking off, right? Right. And if you look since the bottom, now this is another surprise because it was surprising that international stocks outperformed last year in the big AI trade from the bottom of liberation day, which is April 8th. Okay. The Russell 2000 is now beating the NASDAQ 100 and beating the S&P 500. It's up 53% from the bottom in April, more than large cap stocks, which again I think is surprising given the fact that this is an AI only market and there's so much concentration and they're spending all the money and they're such a big part of GDP. I think this would surprise some people. >> Yeah, me too. Here's another one from Apollo. >> Hang on though. The thing is I I think one of the reasons you think hope small cap stocks are going to outperform is because rates are going to fall. So I guess bond yields rising could be the thing that derails this because that that was the hope, right? That that small caps got hurt way more because of rising rates because they borrowed those higher rates and the big cap big cap didn't have to worry about it because they already locked in lower rates before. >> Yeah. But the long end of the curve is is really what's steepening. I like they're not borrowing it for 30 years. So I think they're less impacted by that. >> True. >> Um >> the year of small caps mark it down. >> Yeah. I uh I'm bullish on small caps. Um the Russell 2000 I think 60% of the index is is negative earnings. Is that about right? It's a large number. So, Apollo breaks down the performance since uh I guess since Liberation Day lows or April 2025. I'm not sure why they use that date, not even the lows, whatever. Companies with negative earnings per share have beaten the crap out of companies with positive earnings per share in the index. Which is funny because that's the thing that because if if this really because people always throw this stat out, right, about the negative earnings like if you wanted to just own the higher quality companies or own like a value ETF, right? Or a high quality >> No, the S&P 600. >> Yeah. Or the 600 that it's more high quality. It takes out those negative earners. And you would have been wrong, I guess. >> So even though the Russell has performed well since liberation day lows, it's underperformed dramatically dramatically for the past couple of years. So since the peak in November 2021, it's only up 16%. >> So I look at this as a positive. >> So it's it's gone like four years. >> Yeah. >> Of sideways to nowhere. So since the November 21 peak, the S&P is up 57%. The Russell is only up 16%. >> Which is I don't know what does that compounded 3% a year? Whatever. It's nothing. It's done terribly. So, I agree. I agree with you that this could easily be the beginning of a bigger move. >> It's like why did international stocks top perform so much last year? Part of it was a dollar and part of it was they were so beaten down. It didn't take much good news for them to come back. >> So, look at look at this next chart that check that that Sean made. All right. So, this is the annual returns for the S&P versus the Russell 2000. And the last time the Russell 2000 outperformed was 2020 by a cent. I mean, by like barely anything. It's gotten destroyed almost every other year since 2016. >> Yeah, you're right. If anything, you hang your hat on like it's a due, right? >> It has been a minute. >> Okay. Uh, Greg Ip at the Wall Street Journal. Here's the headline. Trump wants to run the economy hot. There's a good chance he'll succeed. All right. So he's saying Washington has three levers to affect growth. Fiscal policy, monetary policy, and credit policy. And credit policy is like borrowing, the ease of borrowing. And he's saying historically these three things have not been coordinated. He's saying now they kind of are. We're spending a lot of money still. We're reducing rates for monetary policy. And we're trying to ease credit. So he's saying listen like with those things typically like he's probably going to succeed to run the economy hot. Like that's why let me ask you a question. >> GDP now is like 5% for this quarter. >> Zooming out in terms of like how we're thinking about um the stock market in 2026. On the one hand, on the one hand, you have an accommodative backdrop like you just mentioned, right? From from central banks to the government to the AI tailwinds and uh those are that that's a very important thing to consider. Obviously, on the other hand, you have investor expectations, earnings per share expectations pretty high on both sides. We showed the chart last week of ETF flows. Like investors are obviously excited, as they obviously should be. If so, facto are they too excited? And this is the type of thing where it's like you can, you know, uh the CNN Princess Bride, right? you just spin yourself in in circles like yes things are good but everybody knows it's good and then I think generally that line of thinking is too cute at the extremes fine when everybody's like jumping over themselves to raise price targets and truly going like nuts on speculation then I would say all right guys like this is silly season it's not silly season just if you just look at the prices of things that we're talking about it's not silly season at all. It's just not >> I'm going to have to update this, but I did this thing once where I looked at um how often earnings are up in a given year, but the stock market is down or earnings are down and the stock market is up. And it happens more often than you think in just one year period, right? And obviously the trend probably matters more than anything, but it sure is possible that expectations and I think expectations more along the lines of just returns have been so good. That's that's the only thing for me. But yeah, if you look at this stuff with the economy, it's hard to think that like things are going to roll over immediately and all of a sudden go bad and and tech companies are all of a sudden going to pull back. Um >> I listened to um so Josh and I are going to do some financial stuff on what are your thoughts tonight? So I was I was looking at Bank of America's report this morning and to me they are the source of truth. Like when I want to know what's going on, what's really going on with the US consumer, I don't tell me about like um Dollar Tree or Target or these retailers because it's a very competitive market. There's all sorts of different forces that are that are at play. I go to the source of truth and for me that's Bank of America. >> So my my wife's source of truth now is Chad GPT. Like if I tell her something, she won't believe me until she can cross reference with ChatGpt. She believes everything AI tells her, right? She thinks that Chad GBT is just wonderful. Uh for you, that's credit card companies. >> It's Bank of America specifically. >> Okay, that's the way. >> They are they are the bank for Main Street. >> All right. So, here's what they're going to tell you probably. So, this is from our friends Ryan and Sonu uh at Carson Group. So, they said Ryan says household balance sheets are in the best shape they've been in since check. He said, "Yes, there's a lot of debt, but there's also a lot more equity." So what they did here is they broke down all the assets and all the liabilities and they looked at going back to 1999, 2007 and 2019 kind of like some prior peaks and they look at the asset percentage to the liability percentage and it's like yes the debt has grown but the assets have grown even more. So even it's kind of crazy that we're in household balance sheets are in a much much better place from an asset liability perspective than they were in 1999. And the 1990s are still widely considered one of the great economic decades in history for for good reason. And consumers are in a much better place now than they were back then. This is this is assets and liabilities and net worth as a percentage of disposable income. Consumers are in a better shape now than they were in 1999. >> Amazing. >> It's kind of crazy, right? >> So there's a great Charlie Munger quote when we're thinking about assets versus liabilities. And yes, the numbers are reality. I love the quote where he says the liabilities are always 100% good. It's the assets you have to worry about. And so when we're talking about debt and interest rates and what's the breaking point, it's not in a vacuum, right? With asset prices this high, yeah, things look pretty damn good. >> You're right. that that can easily shift with a bare market or whatever. >> Yeah. Like if the assets are 30% lower because of a recession or bare market, then everything is different because the liabilities don't change. Um but getting getting back to back getting back to Bank of America their net charge offs they so they break it down through the consumer credit cards um commercial properties and consumer net charge offs are going down and they have been consistently. >> All right. So you're going to give us the full breakdown next week? >> No, I'm going to do that. I want your thoughts tonight. I'm just saying like things if things are things are fine according to this one source of truth and it's not to say everything is fine always and you know everywhere obviously there are pockets of stress as always are >> no last week you wanted to survey each individual American and ask them how they're doing before we realize things were good now you're going back to macro >> no no I think that when you are talking about real estate you you are like acting as if there's one buyer and do they regret it's like come on I will push back against that for the rest of time I'm sorry those are not the same thing >> all All right, we need to offer Maya. Maybe you do actually. You want to read this? We had a few people write on this. This This was a good This was because we didn't I guess we didn't read this chart right last week. So, we need >> this. No, no, this is great. So, last week we shared a chart for Apollo did their update on real estate and the the title of the chart is Freddy Mack serious delinquency rates multif family and this is significantly higher than during the GFC period. Um, and obviously that's nerve-wracking. So, we called it out and um, somebody, two people actually were kind enough to to check us in the in the inbox. Somebody said, uh, it's the multif family loans. So multif family delinquency rate information is based on the UPB of I'm not sure what that stands for of mortgage loans that are two monthly payments or more past due or in the process of forclosure >> unpaid principal balance. >> Okay. You guys talked about this as if this is the renter de delinquency. It is not. So I had chatbt I I uploaded this chart and I said like explain to me exactly what's going on here. And the TLDDR from chat is this is not renters falling behind, which is what we thought it was. It's apartment owners who borrowed aggressively in a low rate world now struggling to service and refinance their debt >> because rents are falling. >> Two very different things, >> right? And I'm guessing one of the reasons is because rents are falling in a lot of places. And so people You're right. People went hog wild building apartments. I think it was like all-time highs for apartment building because rates were so low. So that makes that actually this makes sense. >> So speaking of Freddy Mack, my my uh book habits and not just with audio books like this is when I was like aggressively reading back in the day, I would like fixate on a topic and I would squeeze all the juice that I wanted to squeeze out of a topic and then I would move on to something else. So part of you know it was like the presidents and then it was history and then this and then that whatever. So, I right now I'm revisiting the >> You know your middle age when it's World War II. >> I haven't done that yet. I know that I'm safe enough for retirement. Uh who has time for that? That's that's a bear. Um so I saw in light of the credit card proposals, modest proposal tweeted like read all the devils are here for unintended consequences. Funny enough, I think all the devils are here. That's Joan Oer and Bethany Mlean. That actually might be the last book that I stopped reading. Whenever I stopped reading, I think I got to half of that book and I for no good reason. I was just like, you know what, maybe it was maybe co happened. I can't remember. But that is a book that I enjoyed and I like got a third of the way through. So I said, you know what? Great idea. Let's revisit that book. So I just finished it. Um, >> are you sure you got the name right? >> All the devils are here. >> Is that another name of it? I I get names wrong all the time. I could be wrong. Oh, nope. You're right. All the devils are here. The hidden history of the financial crisis. Okay. >> Okay. >> I never heard of that one. >> So, from there, I I'm I'm listening now to Andrew Ross Orin's book, Too Big to Fail. Never read that one. And then I'm going to finish. I think I'm probably do one more. I'll probably do one. >> You're going back to the GFC. >> I don't know why. I just Yeah, I feel like I know I we we did that already. I did that in like 2012 when those books came out. But I'm doing >> I honestly felt like the big short was the only one you needed to read. >> Yeah. I mean, yeah. So good. So anyway, it just it's it's a reminder of the time period that we live through and how completely upside down the world was and the the literal not just liquidity problems at the banks, but the utter insolveny of them. We I I've said this, >> the stark contrast of where we are today versus people looking for the next big short. Are you out of your mind? The financial system almost came under legitimately. >> It was it was scary. We uh I've said this story before, but it's worth repeating. We had a hedge fund client. We invested in a hedge fund and we were on a call with them and we had we had calls all the time. Like I I got a new job in July of 2007 for the endowment fund I worked for. like right as the credit stuff really started bubbling up like one of those credit funds blew up and so in the September of 2008 when everything was blowing up layman brothers went under we had a guy on a Friday say go to the ATM right now get as much cash as you can because Monday the banks might not open he was dead serious in that >> Muhammad said that I think Muhammad said that at one of the conferences that we saw him speak at like that was >> it was re and it was a real thing it wasn't like that wasn't hyperbole yes that was a that was a crazy crazy and honestly for me as a young person in finance experiencing that it was like I think one of the best things that could have ever happened to me cuz I saw like people losing their minds and blowing up left and right and like the unintended consequences of the aftermath of that. It was such a good learning experience for me. Okay. Is AI going to make money worthless? This is a piece from the Wall Street Journal. Why the tech world thinks the American dream is dying? The argument some people are putting forward is that tech companies and leaders will become a class under their own infinite wealth. No one else will have the means to generate money for themselves because AI will have taken all their jobs and opportunities. In other words, the bridge is about to be raised for those chasing the American dream. And everyone is worrying about being on being left on the wrong side. And they interview some people who like have these thoughts like, "Hey, listen. AI is it's going to be like Star Trek. Like I'm not a Star Trek person, but I know that technology basically solved everything. So that's why they could explore all these lands and like it could make anything you wanted." Um, and there's some people in Silicon Valley who are saying like, "This is legitimately the last time to get wealth. So get it now. Otherwise, it's it's done." Can we just pause on the Star Trek thing? >> Star Trek was like one of the biggest shows ever at the time. >> Yeah. I I don't think I ever watched a whole episode probably. >> I think like Yeah. Like maybe maybe like our dads watched it. I have no idea. We don't know how good we have it these days. People used to have to watch Star Trek. Like that was what a lame show for nerds, but like that was what it was. No offense to all the >> Star Trek fans on that one. Um, I have a I have a new analogy for AI because like I said, my my wife all the time will will do something on Chad GPT and she'll be like, this is amazing. She's like, I can't believe how good this is, but I think AI is like Rainman. You know, in Rainman when they're at the doctor's office and they're they're giving him math problems like what's 3,612 times 4,213? And he he's like 57. And he says all the and then then Tom Cruz is like, "Oh my gosh, he's a genius." Then he goes, "Ray, what's 2 + 3?" And he's like, "7." That's AI. Because every time I ask it to do something simple, it can't do it. Look at this chart here. I did another one where I tried to do the history of the S&P 500, and it kept giving me the same years twice, 1976 or 1987. And then I'd say, "Hey, stop giving me the same years twice." And then it would mess up the word financials or the word utilities. I don't understand. Someone has to explain to me who's smarter than me. Why is it so hard for AI to do simple tasks, but it can do these monumentally difficult tasks so easily? I don't understand. >> I'm pretty sure whoever emails us an explanation, the explanation won't make sense to us. >> Probably, but there has to be a good explanation. Like I I just want to know why can't it do simple stuff like this? >> Somebody said somebody emailed us that you guys are asking you guys are using it wrong. You have to ask it specific questions in a specific way. like tell the machine that you are an analyst that's looking for X, Y, and Z. Like you can't just you can't just ask a question. You have to like frame it in a certain way. I don't know if that's true or not. I haven't played around with it enough. >> Okay. That that doesn't make sense to me either, but okay. I I don't understand why it can't do simple tasks. >> It's Rainman. >> I uh I finally started taking out all of my photos and things to hang on the wall. We were home yesterday for MLK day. And I said, "You know what? I finally have a minute. Let me let me take the bubble wrap off. Let me >> Wait, can you actually hang stuff yourself?" >> Hey, I can't help you with that. >> No, I mean, I can, but Robin won't let me. And she's probably right, cuz I won't get them straight. >> Okay. >> So, uh I mean, yes, I can h I can hammer a thing into a wall. I can't. Not to not totally derail your story, but we had all of our walls painted and we took everything off and even like the toilet paper holders, you know, and I'm like, we need to let's get new ones cuz the kids mess them up and stuff. So, I'm I told my wife like, I'll put these in. I can I know what I'm doing. I I'll install these. So, I put the toilet paper hangers in. >> I don't know how those hang. It's like magic. Like, how do they because I know exactly what you're talking about. How do they go on to the wall? >> What's keeping them there? >> You put these there's like drywall holders in. So I did it and within a month all of them were like they all fell down. Like it was a one just a straight line, you know, and they all fell down and I had to find the stud and I had to redo them all. >> I hate toilet paper holders. I just hate all of them. >> I hate them all. >> Okay. >> Yeah. >> Hanging stuff on the wall. Anyway, so I took them all out and I told Robin that uh that I was going to take pictures of all of them, take pictures of my wall and have the computer lay them out for me, which I know it could do that, right? It could do that. I didn't even get that [ __ ] She told me to stop right she said stop right there. Don't don't do anything. >> That's the thing. It can it can give you the layout and give you all the measurements and stuff and it just it's it's harder than it So you're going to what are you going to do? Hire someone to hang your wall pictures? Yeah, I have a handyman, Mike. >> Okay. >> Yep. >> Do you think he like laughs to himself internally? Like, this schmuck can't even h hang stuff in the walls. >> Mike's a great guy. He doesn't overcharge me. >> Okay. >> He uh he likes to talk stocks with me. So, nice guy. >> All right. Uh can we can we talk can you explain to me the crypto stuff with Coinbase? >> Oh, no. Matter of fact, I can't. I I can't. Um >> Okay. I have not read a single thing about it. Coinbase did something to piss off the administration. I I'm I'm going to read it. I just haven't got it in up to speed yet. Could you tell me anything about it or we're both ignorant right now? >> I read the story Josh posted for us, but it just said Coinbase didn't like the because it could impact their stable coin yields and it sound like everyone was mad at Coinbase. So, I I don't know. I thought maybe you were plugged into the crypto. Maybe someone can >> fill us in. Okay, >> I will I will get plugged in. I just haven't I just haven't read it yet. Um All right. This is this is this is news. Oh, the markets are open. All right. So S&P is I mean the equal weight's down 80 basis points. S&P is down 130. I mean whatever. >> The Russell 2000 is positive. Do Am I seeing that right? >> No, you're not seeing that right. >> Okay. I want it to work. >> Russell is down 1%. Gold is up three and a half%. Holy moly. Uh silver is up six%. The VIX is uh I mean the VIX is at 19. This is like this is this is nothing. But uh >> I never thought we'd see another gold silver bubble in my lifetime. >> I bought silver when it was 50 bucks in 2011. I I I have no I said this to Josh. Maybe I haven't said it on this show. I bought silver I bought silver on the when it broke out at like 36 bucks and I think I sold it at like 42 and I felt like a genius. >> What is it now? >> 85 or 86. >> All right. not a silver trader. >> Uh, okay. This is news. The New York Stock Exchange today announced its development of a platform for trading and onchain settlement of tokenized securities. Uh, for which it will seek regulatory approval. I'm guessing they're going to get it. NIC's new digital platform will enable tokenized trading experiences, including 247 operations, instant settlement, order size, and dollar amounts, and stable Coinbased funding. 247 instant settlement. Okay, >> I know that's one people probably I think instant settlement is probably the biggest thing for a lot of people, right, >> dude? I don't I transfer money to a custodian on Monday. Um, and I need to transfer back out and the money still hasn't settled. How is that possible? Monday of last week. I did a custodian to custodian transfer. I think I put it in motion before the end of the year and it just settled last week. It took like six weeks to happen. It took forever. Really long time. in like an in transfer of of securities. >> If it's settled yet transfer now, I I could trade it. I don't want to trade it. I want I want my money back. Nope. How How is this possible? It's been It's been over a week. >> So, the funny thing is is that that's going to be the benefit for people, but then people are also going to say like, "Wait, this happened way too quick. I didn't mean to do it." It's that's going to be like the >> I don't think people are going to complain about things moving too quickly. >> All right. This is well the opposite of bad is good in this case for the most part. >> I don't I don't like 247 trading but the other stuff is fine with me. All right let's talk let's talk housing from Axios the share of US mortgages by interest rate and they look at 6% or higher versus 2.9% or lower and 2.9% or lower was way it was almost 25% of all mortgages in 2022 and the share of 6% or higher was less than 10%. Now the share of 6% or higher is more than those with 3% or lower. So like the world is healing I guess getting more normalized for mortgage holders. >> I I think this is actually a good a positive for the housing market because it means fewer people holding on to those 3% mortgages and more people who are willing to trade and have activity. Correct. >> Oh, I see what you're saying. Um yeah, it could be. >> Sorry. Do you hear that drilling in the background? I have no idea what's going on. >> I have no idea. Maybe someone's hanging pictures on their wall. Um, all right. From the Wall Street Journal, uh, Gen X and millennials will inherit trillions in real estate over the next decade. And they look at they look at this through the lens of luxury real estate. But I think this is a big going to be a huge story for just everyone. So over the next decade, 1.2 million individuals with a net worth of 5 million or more projected to pass on more than $38 trillion globally. Gen Xers and millennials will inherit $4.6 $6 trillion in global real estate over the next 10 years. Uh 2.4 million trillion of that is in the US. And they look at all these different like wealth transfers by by net worth. Um they said Americans with a net worth of more than 5 million are expected to pass down 17.3 trillion over the next decade. Uh it's going to be a lot of money changing hands. And they talk about how a lot of rich people are trying to figure this out and get ahead of it and make sure their kids are okay. And um I just think it it's it's going to be it's not going to happen all at once. Obviously, it's going to be a slower it's not going to be a giant title wave. It's going to be a slower, you know, tide coming in and coming out. >> This is like the 10,000 baby boomers retiring every day. It's going to play >> and obviously people have been talking about the great wealth transfer for years because they can see it coming. Um but like what what se segment of the economy is going to have the biggest is going to feel the most from this? I mean, cuz I think there's going to be upheaval with financial adviserss, right? Hey, my parents use this person. I don't want to use them. I'm going to change over. There's going to be a lot of that. I believe >> I think there's going to be a probably a lot of young people who go, I would rather have the money than the house. I don't want this house my parents lived in. What am I going to do with it? Unless I move in, I'm going to sell it. I think there So, I think there's there is going to be a lot of change because of this wealth transfer. >> Yeah. >> Like, what do you think it's going to mean? Um, >> we we've never had a group this large with this much money live this long before. We've never had this before. This is a totally new thing. >> All right, let me let me make a a lame what do I think is going to happen prediction. Nothing. I think it's going to be so slow and gradual that these people are going to be transferring real estate, aka dying, over the next 30 years. So, I don't think that there we're going to wake up one day with like, oh my god, there's so many homes for sale because unless we have like another CO situation and even still that did nothing. Um, god forbid. But I I just think that it's going to be like a sort of boring slow and steady thing and the I guess the biggest impact is going to be the rich get richer. >> Yeah, you're right. And and I think that's the hard part is people think like, well, the rich are all going to sell people are going to sell their assets all at once when this gets transferred down. No, it's mostly going to be rich people giving the money to the rich kids and they're not going to sell anything. >> Well, they'll sell their homes. >> Yeah, but but I'm saying like stocks and stuff like financial securities. That stuff is not going to like see a big wave of selling because of this. >> No, I don't think so. >> Yes. But I I do think hopefully that will unlock some houses for people to buy in in the years ahead that a lot of people aren't going to want their baby boomer parents houses. They're going to want they're going to want to get out of them and just take the money. Um, well, we don't have to guess because you can just see this in the demographic data. There are there are more people that are going to be of home buying age than there are of people passing away and unlocking real estate. Like, it's still going to be way upside down. Demand the demand supply imbalance. >> I also don't think I don't think we're prepared as a society for the level of death we're going to have in years ahead. I know that's a really morbid thing to think about, but just the transition that happens. I saw this with my brother. The amount of things that need to happen when someone passes away with their accounts and their their money and their everything about them, it's not. So, I I had a conversation with my dad right afterwards and said, "I'm not prepared for like you and mom someday. Like, we need to have a we need to sit down and have a discussion cuz I did with my brother." And so, like at the holidays, my dad handed me this envelope. He's like, "Here's everything. Here's our passwords. Here's our accounts. here's if something should happen to me and your mother's by yourself or to both of us like and you need to know where everything is like I don't think how many people are having those conversations >> very probably not many right >> yeah no it's not a fun conversation >> it makes like a messy situ Yeah it's not fun at all but it makes like a a bad situation even worse when you have to deal with all that stuff and like sort through it all on your own you know >> especially since everything in the past you could go through someone's filing cabinet and find everything now everything's online and if you need to get someone's password it's it's through their phone or their you know they they have to like you. It's the on them. >> It's much harder to get that stuff these days. >> Yeah. I remember having that conversation with my mother. I was probably 23. I mean, I was completely emotionally unequipped to have that conversation and it was it was not fun. >> Yeah. No, it's not at all. But yeah, like having ahead of time. All right. Getting down to wealth. Uh Citadel Securities had a good piece here. I think I think Mev shared this on the idea farm. Um now I have to I have to request Citadel. Whoever's making their charts, listen, they make they're that's a huge organization. They make a lot of money for people. They need to increase the font on their charts. You see how small the font is on these things? >> Can't read it. >> It's it's comically small. And so they look at household wealth by percentile group. They're looking at the top 1%, the next nine, the next 40, and the bottom 50. Okay? And obviously the the top 1% holds most of it. The top 10% holds most of it. We know that, right? I think the top 10% um is like almost 70% of the total. But they look at the growth in household wealth by percentage. This is something we've talked about and this is since 2012. By far the biggest relative gainer is the bottom 50% who've seen their wealth rise by almost 1,200%. Versus call it a 150 to 200% growth for the rest of the group. Now part of this is probably when they chose to start this because that was the kind of the bottom of the housing market. So that bottom 50% got dinged the most then. Um, but if you look at the ownership of equities too, the biggest growth since the 2010s is in that bottom 50%. Their ownership of equities is up almost 500%. It's a massive jump for the bottom 50%. And I obviously it's still a tiny amount relatively speaking. I still think this is one of the best outcomes of the 2020s. The fact that the bottom 50% has been brought more into the financial markets. And the last one, the household ownership uh by age group, people under 40. >> Under 40 is by again the biggest thing. We've talked a little, but these are good charts here. As long as you know, Citadel, talk to Chart Kid Matt about the font. The font got got to be a little bigger. Good charts. >> It's funny that the narrative of Robin Hood over the years has shifted so dramatically, >> right? >> They were the bad guys and now in in some opinions, they're the good guys. Or maybe it's not it's not bad or good. It's it's shades. But uh but they did this like >> this, you know, that they didn't cause a pandemic, but like they were, you know, right place, right time, >> but uh >> another weird outcome of the pandemic though, right? Like who would have ever thought we're going to have a pandemic that's going to keep people in their houses. It's going to be an awful situation. What's it going to do? It's going to lead more people to invest in the stock market. Who could have ever predicted that? >> Yeah. Uh speaking of predictions, my Seahawks not winning the Super Bowl prediction is not looking so hot. >> Man, I've gotten a lot of notes on that lately. So, I made that I made that it's it's it's hilarious. >> Daniel, you got to pull the clip on that. Michael saying, "Listen, the Seahawks aren't winning the Super Bowl. It's not going to happen." >> I made that prediction in week 16, I believe, or 17. >> Wait, are you still holding on to this bet or did you sell out of it? >> Yeah, I'm still holding. >> Okay. I think you have to hold at this point. You have to You have to hold. >> So, I could take I could take a 40% loss. >> Um, which is whatever. It's funny. >> What's the payout if if the Seahawks Let's say they lose in the Super Bowl. What's the payoff if you win? >> So I I uh I might Okay, I bought So it was 86 cents for No. And I'm thinking when I did it like this is a 14% return. Forget about I wouldn't make the bet if it was minus 800 or whatever it translates to, but I like 86 cents. Like that's a 14% return. It's free money. It's a no-brainer. They're not going to win. And then they destroyed the the ners on prime time and uh I felt a little pit in my stomach like uh oh they look they look really good. Uh and my whole thing was like Sam Darnold's not winning Super Bowl. They don't need Sam Darnold to do anything. Like they're just so dominant. Um I do think that the that the Rams can beat them. I really do. But uh but am I? So anyway, I I have way too much money now against the Seahawks and and uh I want out. >> Predicting the future is hard. >> I want out. Yeah, predicting the future is hard. >> Yeah, you I mean there's some injury luck in there, too. But yeah, they >> you know, I've karma has bitten me in the butt cheeks a few times recently with the Seahawks and the flu and Delta. So, a couple of weeks ago, we were talking about Delta's earnings, and you were like, either you or Josh said like, "What? Why is Delta so much better than every other airline?" >> Yeah, that was me. >> Okay. And I was like, I don't know, but like I only fly Delta and I've had nothing but awesome experiences. Like, I've flown a lot in the last three years and I've had like one delay. I had a really bad experience on Thursday. So on Thursday night, I made the quickest trip of my life to Los Angeles. I was supposed to land at 11:00, client meeting the next morning, then be on a plane out at 3:00 the next day. So in the air almost as long as I was on the ground and for whatever I can't they gave a reason. I don't know what it was. The the wrong plane was at this at the gate, whatever. It was like a 2 and a half hour delay. Didn't land >> on the plane or waiting. >> No, thank God. Okay. But like it was just it was not pleasant. You know, people were getting anxious. It was late. And then to add insult to injury, um, you know, I love Delta's airplane. Yeah. I love Delta's movies. In fact, I think, didn't we hear from the person that chooses the movies? >> I think >> I came over was on Delta. >> What a cool job. >> Mhm. >> This movie selection stunk. I was I >> Or maybe it's Maybe it's not to brag. I've just seen too many of these movies. Yeah. >> I watched The Conjuring Last Rights. That movie was such a pile of [ __ ] that I turned it off with 10 minutes to go in and like there was 10 minutes left. I said, "I don't want I don't want to finish this." >> That's a lot. Okay, speaking of movies, uh, Friday night, I pull up Netflix. What do I see? Oh, there's a brand new Matt Damon Ben Affleck movie. I forgot this was going straight to Netflix. That's one of the beauties of streaming. You can just turn on Netflix on a Friday, be like, "Oh, there's a brand new movie with Hollywood stars." So, they've been making the rounds. They've been doing they've got this movie called The Rip. Did you see it? Mhm. >> Okay. We'll talk about the movie in a minute, but they've been making their own. They've been doing the podcast tour. They've been talking a lot. It's funny. People probably watch the podcast clips more than the movie. >> Did you listen to Did you listen to Rogan? >> I didn't listen to I honestly didn't listen to any of their podcasts. I just listened to some of the the clips. I haven't listened to the Rogan interview. It's so good. I'm only halfway done, but it's just so there's >> I don't know which one he talked about at this, but this is the quote from Matt Damon that's been flying around. He said, "The standard way to make an action movie that we learned was you usually have three set pieces. One in the first act, one in the second, one in the third. You spend most of your money on that one third act. That's your finale. And now it's like, can we get the big one in the first 5 minutes? We want people to stay. And it wouldn't be terrible if you reiterated the plot three or four times in the dialogue because people are on their phones while they're watching. >> That was sure. >> Okay. And that's obviously very sad, but I totally understand why they do this. And this is one of the reasons why every time I watch a Netflix movie, I go, "What what is it about this movie that just doesn't feel like a normal movie?" and that must be it that they're making they're trying to optimize these to keep people's attention and not like a regular movie. Something about it just doesn't feel like a normal movie. So, here's my take on the movie. >> This movie sucked. >> I watched it. I It felt like they sent Damon and Affleck a Gerard Butler script and they went, "You know what? Like it accidentally like here's a Liam Niss or Gerard Butler like straight to DVD movie, straight to streaming movie." And they went, "You know what? We get to work with each other again. It's a B minus action flick. Netflix is gonna throw the bag at us and then we get to go on the podcast tour and talk about how great we are and how we made Goodwill Hunty together. Who cares? Let's do it. Everyone else is getting in the bag. Why don't we? That's kind of how this felt. To me, this was a Bminus action movie. And they were they were still like their acting was good in it, but it was um >> it sucked. And it was to me, this movie was sad because it felt exactly like the Netflix movies do. And they all they all just have >> there was like a half hour of it where I was kind of when they were figuring out what to do with the money cuz it's like, hey, there's a there's a house with a bunch of money. What do the cops are dirty? And when they were for a half hour, I was like kind of intrigued. But yeah, it was just a not good action movie. Yeah, I had like I had a decent enough time watching it. >> Listen, it's fully >> watchable. My take is was it a good movie? Absolutely not. Did I kind of enjoy it? Yeah, I did. I enjoyed it. I still I still enjoyed myself. >> Yeah, it was fun. It was like it was like moderately fun enough, but like it just was hollow. It just was like dumb and stupid and what is happening? And it it felt like a Netflix movie. >> Like the first scene five minutes in, you're kind of like, oh, okay. So anyway, >> and the and the director is a real director. He did uh The Gray with with Liam Niss. He did Narc. He did um >> You're saying The Gray is a real director? No offense to this guy. >> I like that movie. >> Okay. >> I like I saw that in the theater obviously. Um >> I said this could have been a Liam Niss movie. >> It just it just wasn't good. >> All right. We we offered a a mayopa earlier in the show. Uh, I might have to offer one to you, too, because I listened to the movie draft on the Town podcast about what's coming out in 2026, and you said 2026 is going to be bigger than 2025. And I said, "No way. You're nuts." And you said, "Well, the Michael Jackson movie, but >> here's what's coming out. There's a new Mario Brothers movie, the new Toy Story, a new Avengers, a new Moana, a new Spider-Man, a new Minions, a new Dune, a new Star Wars something, a new Jumanji, and a new Devil Rous Prada." Now, those are all retreads, of course, which to me is like, so they're probably gonna make a ton of money. >> Well, you've got a big one. Scream 7 is gonna be huge with Nef Campbell's coming back. >> But has she been in all the recent ones? >> Maybe it's a cameo. >> Okay. Um, this is also kind of depressing for me. Like, all the big movies this year just going to be so like the ones that I want to see or they're not is The Odyssey and Project Hillary. Those are the only ones I probably really care about. But it's kind of depressing to me that like why did they have to make another Toy Story? >> Why did they have to make another Avengers? It's it's a depressing state of the movies that this is all we do now. >> Well, mostly true. Obviously, mostly true. But can I just offer you some other things that are that I'm excited to see? Uh I can't wait to see I can't wait to see 28 Years Later. I I might try and go tonight if I can. Everyone loves >> another retread. >> Sure. But it's not Yeah, I guess it is. >> Yeah, >> but it's not like a a Marvel movie. Uh, Send Help, the new Sam Ramy movie with Rachel McAdams. >> Have you seen that one? >> Okay, I'll wait on Netflix. I'll watch it. Yeah. >> Okay. Um, there's one coming out on Friday. Is Glenn Powell in it? Do you like It looks like um Minority Report. >> Okay, you're not selling me here very much. Um, what is the name of the movie? >> Uh, all right. Uh, Arisious Groom 7. That's not for you, of course. Um, all right. Some more. Oh, Ready or Not, too. I loved Ready or Not. Big Ready or Not guy. Uh, Mortal Kombat sucks. Oh, they're making a Street Fighter movie. That's going to suck, too. Oh, Masters of the Universe. You were definitely a He-Man guy. Okay, that one's also bad. >> You had He-Man underwear. Let's be honest. >> Probably some human action figures. That's If they don't make that like a satire, it's not going to be good. >> Okay. Whoa. Whoa. There's a new Steven Spielberg movie out coming out. >> That one actually looks good. Yes. An alien. >> Okay. With Emily, that's about aliens. Scary movie 6. I'm going to skip that. Supergirl. Not for me. Jackass 5. I'm seeing that in theaters. Love jackass. Uh there's some [ __ ] >> Yeah, I'll read on Friday. >> Let's do a story time before we do our recommendations. I got a couple of movies. Um, did you get either of your kids into wrestling, like WWE? Do they watch any of it? >> Mm-m. >> Okay. Because I grew up on, you know, Hulk Hogan and Andre the Giant. I think I made it all the way through like Brett the Hitman of Heart and Shawn Michaels in when I was in middle school. Then I kind of gave up on it cuz it's like, you know, whatever. Uh, so my son, you know, he loves to he's very physical. Like everyone's in the winter he feels like a caged animal because he can't go outside as much anymore. He's like, "Hey, every night he's like, "Dad, let's wrestle. Let's tackle." >> Hang on. I'm sorry. Sorry. The the new movie is is not Glenn Pal, it's Chris Pratt. It's called Mercy. Have you seen trailers for that? >> Yeah, it looked okay. You're right. >> Looks pretty good. Okay, back to you. Wrestling. >> So, he my son like he has to be like he's like he's like let's wrestle. He like he loves to like mess around and he's like let's tussle. Let's tackle each other and suplex each other. And he loves to wrestle. He can't >> wait each other. He could suplex you. That's impressive. >> Oh. Yeah. He's pretty close. He's going to be bigger than me pretty soon. So I'm like, "Oh my gosh, you're he loves cheesy action movies." I'm like, "He's going to love WWE." So, I put on cuz they have all the old ones on Netflix. So, I put on like the uh what's the big one? Wrestlemania. I put it on forum. Um I used to watch it on pay-per-view with like the shady lines. Like I couldn't get the actual pay-per-view, so I'd try to watch it through the thing. And um we put it on and I forgot the matches are like a half hour long. Um but like 2 minutes into I thought he'd love it cuz these guys are flying off ropes. They're, you know, he's like, "What what is this?" I'm like, "That's wrestling." He's like, "It's fake. They're not really hitting each other. I can tell." And I was like, I didn't know if I was proud of him or should I be. He's like, I want to watch real stuff. Like wanted to see actual. And I'm like, >> oh, I thought you would love this. He hate it. So, should I be proud or should I be worried that he just wants to see people actually get hurt? >> I don't know. >> Because I mean, >> he's 8 years old and he still halfway believed in Santa this year, even though he kind of said, "Hey, Dad, Santa's note looks a lot like your handwriting this year." So, he kind of he wanted to believe, but he still didn't. But, uh, I can't believe that he immediately got that wrestling was fake. Like I I was still into it. >> Yeah, that is impressive. That is impressive. Well, >> I don't mean to like throw shade at people, but I can't believe this. I cuz I watched it, too, and I was like, I forgot how fake this really is. Um I can't believe how many adults still watch this. I cannot believe. >> Phil Huber Phil Huber thinks it's still real. >> Um have you seen the the video? It's real to me. Damn it, that guy. Um I can't believe how many adults watch this because my son in 8 years old saw through to me like, "Oh, this is fake. They're not really hitting each other." >> I have two friends that still watch it. Bill, one of them and another friend from home still watches every uh every whatever every whatever it is. >> Hey, to each their own. I can't believe people think it's entertaining. That's just me. All right, let's do some recommendations. Speaking of Glenn Powell, my wife and I watched The Running Man on Paramount Plus. That was his movie that came out last year. It was a retread of their Arnold movie from the8s. >> I never saw the original >> and I didn't I surprisingly didn't either. I'm a big Arnold fan. And um they tried to kind of keep with the same vibe of the original '8s movie. So, it looked like a movie that was made in the8s made today. I and the premise is just you have 30 days and there's going to be a team of people trying to kill you. You have to run. It's like a dystopian future. Like the guy needed money. So the the idea is good. It's a pretty cheesy action movie. Did I enjoy it? Yeah, I enjoyed it. >> Glenn Powell. Not a good movie. Not like a high quality movie. An entertaining idea. How's that? >> Okay. You know what else is coming out? I just I don't know. I don't know why Glenn Powell reminded me of this. Godzilla minus one. Oh no. Godzilla minus they call is minus zero. I can't remember. There's another one coming out. The first one was amazing. >> Yeah. Lord knows we haven't had enough Godzilla movies over the years. >> No, these are these are real Godzilla, not the nonsense Hollywood one. >> Okay. My son actually did like the first one. Um, all right. So, they did the Golden Globes last week and Rose Burn won best actress for If I Had Legs, I'd kick you. And I just I saw her speech and I thought that looks good. I I knew nothing about this movie. So, I told my wife I'm like, "It's Friday night. Let's watch a movie. Let's pull this up." We rented it. Oh, boy. Um, great performance by her is about the best I can do. It's one of those movies where they're keeping things secret for me at the beginning and so for the first half hour you go, "Okay, this is happening, but something else is going on." And by the end of the movie, you go, "Oh, wait. Nothing else is going on." Um, a very infuriating movie from a plot perspective. >> Great performance. Terrible movie. Like it's it's an Oscar film. >> Okay. Yeah. I I I watched a trailer with uh Robin and I said, "I'm not watching this movie." >> I I couldn't believe that like, "Wait, this is all it's about. Just this." Okay, finally. Uh I had I'm still walking through my Robert Redford catalog that I after he passed away and I never watched them all. I finally watched All The President's Men. I'd never seen it. Obviously not breaking new ground here. I think it won Oscar for best picture. >> Everything. Yeah. >> This Yeah. But the 70s are my my like hole for movies. Um, this movie starts and it goes and it just it's it hits the ground running and I can see why it's why so many people it's it felt like it could have been made today like a period piece about the 70s. It's so so good. I understand why people liked it so much and honestly I knew kind of about the story about what happened at Watergate but not really not like the details of it and uh yeah so good. I will be watching that movie again. It was amazing and Very good. >> Um, all right. Uh, His and Hers, you watching that? >> Didn't start it yet. Worth it? >> Yes. I only saw the first episode. All right. Netflix does those shows very well. They don't do movies. Well, >> they do the crime series. >> So, it's like The Beast and Me kind of a miniseries, right? John Burnthall. >> It's good. Yeah. It's good stuff. I'm in. >> Uh, have you seen Marty Supreme yet? >> Oh, no. Of course you haven't. It's in the theaters. Everyone loves that movie. I'm excited to see it. >> Yeah, you're a big table tennis guy. >> I actually am. I'm I think I can beat you in ping pong. Not to brag. >> I I'm not good at it, so. >> Okay, >> that's not to brag. >> You You seated ground quicker than I thought you would. >> Yep. You could take me. Okay. >> Um All right. Anything else? How's the marker doing? worse. >> Okay. All right. Could we see a replay of last year where we have geopolitical volatility upheaval, quick correction, oh wait, the earnings are still fine. This isn't going to impact the economy. Off to the races. Could we see a repeat? Is that too simple? >> I don't think so. because Liberation Day came out of nowhere and everybody was like, "Wait, what are we doing?" I think that this it's not going to be I I can't imagine like the S&P going down 10% on like tariff threats or Greenland threats or I guess it could, but uh I I don't think it's going to be I think something else would have to happen aside from the nonsense. >> How about this? A market on Koshi for every year for the rest of Trump's presidency. Will there be a 15% decline in the equity markets every year until he's out? >> Well, that's average. >> True. But I I said the double digit is twothirds of every year you have a double digit decline. I think we could just see this volatility every year from geopolitics now. I think that's just the new normal. >> How about this? I would purely from an investor point of view, so only speaking with my investor headon, I would much rather deal with geopolitical volatility than anything else. If there's going to be volatility in the stock market, >> true, >> right? Like because ultimately that is um jawbon and rhetoric and whatever. like give me that all day as opposed to the the story on corporate earnings turning cuz that's that's what really hurts the market. So, um all right, we'll see uh we'll see what we see back next week. Animal Spirits at the compound news.com. Thank you for the emails. Thank you for listening. >> Personal emails, personal responses. Haven't given that one in a while. >> Gosh damn right. Have a great rest of your week. Heat. Heat.
Small Caps Are Back | Animal Spirits 448
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Today's animal spirits is brought to you by Y Charts. Client meetings move fast in Q1, but Y Charts has you covered. Their popular top 10 visuals deck is packed with readytouse charts that cut prep time and make client conversations easier. The deck covers the conversations clients actually want to have from long-term investing to portfolio allocation, retirement, and setting expectations early in the year. >> That's right, Ben. Everything is fully customizable, easy to brand with your firm's logo, and constantly updated with new visuals and fresh materials as markets change, so you're never sharing something outdated. Instead of starting from scratch for every meeting, this gives you a simple way to stay prepared and keep conversations focused. Grab your free copy with a link in the show notes, and you get 20% off your initial Y charts professional subscription when you start your free Y Charts trial through Animal Spirits. New customers only. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Ben, how was your weekend? Did you you avoided that nasty car mashup on the highway? >> Oh yeah. 100 cars. My My kids kept wanting to see pictures of it. >> Where was it? Was it near you or other side of the state or what? >> 20 minutes away probably. >> Oh. Oh. >> Oh yeah. No. Highway we take all the time. Yes. Uh blizzard conditions in Michigan. Kids had a snow day today. >> What a great feeling, right? Don't set your alarms, kids. We're going to see if it's a snow day. They wake up and it's kind of like Christmas morning. You know, they wake up, realize it's a snow day. My son was all dressed and ready for school, and we told him it was a snow day, and he went and took all his clothes off, and put his PJs back on. >> That's one of the best feelings as a child. >> So pumped. That's like one of one of the good things about having this kind of weather. >> Legs up, Jerry Springer. What could be better? >> Yes. Yes. Exactly. >> All right. Um, it is Tuesday morning, 9:08, 22 minutes away from the opening bell, which you won't hear on my computer. and uh a little bit of volatility. Futures are down, gold is surging, VIX is up to 20. Uh and the reason the source of the indigestion is uh the president's desire to annex, am I using that word properly? >> I don't know. That might been a stretch. >> Denmark. Well, you're adding annexing is to like add a uh Yeah, kind of. Yeah, I guess. Yeah. >> Uh so the president is trying to take Denmark, I'm sorry, Greenland from Denmark. Apparently, there is strategic interest for us. I don't know. Being closer to Europe, we could rule with the stronger fist and there's some rare earths and minerals and I don't know. >> You're forgetting that there's the green in the land there. >> Very green. >> A lot of land. um nonsensical if you ask me. Uh markets don't like it. And the reason why why uh they're responding the way they are is because uh European leaders are saying, "What are you doing? You're not you're not just taking Greenland." Uh and uh actually, you know what? Greenland is icy. Didn't did you learn nothing from Mighty Ducks 2? And Iceland is green. >> Yeah, it's the opposite. But Iceland does have ice too though, right? >> Okay. Well, anyway, um for the European countries that are standing in the president's way, we're talking about a 10% tariff and that's going to be increasing to 25% on June 1st. Uh so, so wait, so we're trying he's trying to purchase a country. Okay, I guess that's what that's what he's doing. Yeah, listen. Give us Greenland or we're going to tax our own citizens. Take that. Um, I don't know if this means anything. It probably doesn't, but um, I want to read you something that I'm reading this book or listening to this book. It's an audible. I don't know if it's necessarily a recommendation for you. It's called 1913, In Search of the World Before the Great War. Can't remember who recommended it, someone on Twitter. And it basically just looks at what the world was like heading into World War I. And looking back with hindsight, you think, man, it was so obvious that this was going to happen. like all these countries were like gearing up and they just wanted to fight. But this book kind of takes a a contrarian take of if you look at what was actually going on in these cities, it you wouldn't have ever thought this was going to happen, right? It it wasn't as as clear-cut as you thought. And it was just like the whole point of the book is like the world order shifted over the next 30 years in ways that weren't possibly imaginable in 1913. He goes through all the different cities, what was happening in London and Rome and Berlin and like the stuff you hear. It was like you could travel as a German citizen to the UK without a passport. It was like think open borders and it was kind of like not what you would think because the world got more insular after that obviously. So listen to this. I want to it's kind of long but I think it's worth a read. >> All right. You have my attention. >> A European could survey the world in 1913 as the Greek gods might have surveyed it from the snowy heights of Mount Olympus themselves above the teeming earth below. To be a European from this perspective was to inhabit the highest stage of human development. Past civilizations might have built great cities, invented algebra, or discovered gunpowder, but none could compare to the material and technological culture to which Europe had given rise, made manifest in the continent's unprecedented wealth and power. To be a European, a European man in particular, was to see oneself at the center of the universe from which all distance was measured and against all of clocks were set. >> Replace the date, replace the name, and you're talking about the US today. Okay? I I it was just interesting to to read and not it it always seems like the the world order today is set and you kind of have a recency bias of of course the US is going to be the leader forever, right? Um and I I'm I'm still wildly bullish on the US over the long term because I think we have tons of tons of uh built-in advantages and such, but I just don't think that this I think we just can't take for granted the fact that we have the position of power we do and I don't think we should abuse that power. >> Agreed. And and it's funny because people have been saying like the fall of the Roman Empire for us for decades now, but it already happened in Europe. Europe is the example of a fallen empire and I feel like people don't ever talk about it like that was the Roman Empire that fell. >> Yeah. I'm not worried about American exceptionalism or our advantages. I think these things move at a glacial speed. But and also >> it's not to dismiss the position of power and privilege that we have and treating our trade partners and our allies this way and and and leading for abusing this power. It's not good. >> But you know what what the what the what do you call it? The sort of counterbalance there is the financial markets. Like if if things get taken too far the and the bond market yields bond market start selling off and yields spike higher and the stock market sells off. That's the transistor there. Like that's the thing that's going to Don't you think that's the one >> that that's what saved us from having those tariffs that could have been so bad in in April. And people say, "Well, it's a negotiating ploy or whatever." But the financial markets I still think are the the arbiter of like putting a ceiling on some of these things. >> Yeah. Uh how did you how did you get the um how did you clip that section? Because I've I've tried to I've like Google like how do you I'm listening to an audio book. It would be cool if I could like read alongside of it or clips. How do How do you do that? >> Yeah. Yeah. So, you hit the clip button in there. It's like 30 seconds long. >> Oh, >> but honestly, after this, I liked it so much I um I bought the Kindle, too. There should be a You should get a deal on the Kindle, right? >> If you buy the Audible, right? >> So, when I'm listening to an earnings call, it's very nice to be able to listen and also see the text while you're listening. It's like it's like subtitles. And if your eyes scroll ahead and you're bored, whatever, you just jump to the next part. >> Not that I want to do it with a book, but >> Amazon, give us a call. All right. So, >> maybe these things are are one and the same. Like what matters more right now? And it's kind of funny to say like the markets are like having volatility because we just hit an alltime high last week on Friday, I think. So, it's like okay, we have one whatever one down day. Uh, so is it Greenland or bond yield? And maybe these things are interconnected, but people I I saw a bunch of people posting the Japan yields this morning. Uh, here's one. Japan's 30 yield 30-year yields rocketed 26 basis points higher toward 4%. And you can see in this chart, right, Japan bond yields look like they're going vertical. It looks like a chart of gold or Bitcoin or something crazy that's going up. Now, here's my question as a macro tourist. Okay? For 30 to 40 years, Japan's bond yields were on the floor. Okay? Couldn't go anywhere. They were really, really low and their economy stagnated. So, why isn't this actually a good thing? Because the yield curve is steepening. is that I mean listen this is a total tourist question and obviously the reason for the yields m but they're saying hey listen um they're going to it their yields are soaring because they're going to cut taxes isn't this like >> they're trying to grow the Japanese economy isn't this a positive sign >> two things I have no idea what's happening in Japan >> yeah I'm a total macro tourist admittedly >> like I so I couldn't even begin to tell you but like the opposite of bad is not good always the right because this is another extreme So if shorting shorting Japanese bonds used to be called the widowmaker because surely they had to go up and they just didn't. >> Yes. >> But all right zero is bad but vertical is not good either. I mean this is not like a slow and steady creep up like they're going straight up. >> And when government borrowing costs rise like this I don't know. It's not this is not a good thing. Yield like government bond yield going vertical is never good. >> That's fair. The opposite of good is not bad. that that's a I have to think about that one a little longer, but I think you you're kind of right. Maybe 40% right. Okay, so Kevin Gordon posted a picture of the US 30-year Treasury and it's not going vertical. It's going up, but this is the kind of thing where I'm going to be like the Titanic captain going down with the ship on this. Like I if bond yields in the US go up and down and up and down, I feel like they've every time they go up, people really worry something wrong is going to happen. And I'm always poo pooing this because I think unless like they really spike in a meaningful way, I'm not going to worry about them just going in some rangebound pattern. >> I'm going to be the last person to worry about this. >> Yeah, I I mean I would mostly agree with you. Like every But it does seem like every time they get up here, at least over the past two years, they've come back down. >> Yes. >> The like would you what if what if they shoot past 5%. >> Let's just imagine that there's technical analysis on yields and they're at like 5 and a half% 6%. >> The weird The weird part about it is that inflation keeps falling. So bond yields are rising while inflation is falling. So I guess what that would tell you is it's investor positioning that people are selling treasuries. >> Well, it's I think it's just uh I think it's political instability. >> That's what I mean. >> And I think that's that's obviously why like gold is gapping up higher this morning as are all precious metals. I just keep wondering like why isn't the dollar responding? Like why aren't they selling dollars if if that's if all the heming and hawing is over political two true currencies aren't moving. Bitcoin not moving either. >> Well, Bitcoin's going down. I know you're kidding, but um >> No, but I I still think the the fact that we're seeing this political upheaval and gold and silver are the ones reacting and not Bitcoin is an interesting development. Very interesting in my in my opinion. I wouldn't have guessed this if you would have told me this a couple years ago. Hey, this is all the stuff that's going to happen geopolitically. Which one is going to spike? Gold, silver, or Bitcoin? I would have said probably Bitcoin, and I would have been wrong. >> Don't you think this is just another one of the narrative violations of Bitcoin that this was this was supposed this was it was supposed to be the anti-system play and it's not acting like that? >> No, it's totally it's risk on, risk off, at least for the most part. Maybe it'll I mean, could change one day, but has not yet. You're right. Um, all right. So, yeah, let's talk about the stock market. But hey, listen. In in six months, this Greenland stuff that like is it going to matter? >> Probably not. >> Uh I mean, I hope not. I I I I'm not taking this like threat seriously. Maybe I should. I don't know. The idea of just taking another country seems completely preposterous. >> Yeah, >> that's why >> we're just taking countries. Like for what? I don't. It's >> I'm at a loss. I was I was watching I was watching the Knicks. I went to the I took my family to the Knicks game yesterday and the Knicks are just completely unraveling and it's one of those things that's just so confoundingly I don't even know where to begin. I like my friend and I were texting. We're at a loss. I don't even know what to say. What happened? The wheels fell off so fast. I'm genuinely like I don't even know what to say. What's happening? And I feel sort of that way with with what we're doing now with Greenland. like is this >> the Pistons sucked all your energy out? Admittedly, I don't I'm not watching NBA regular season basketball yet. I I there's too much football on for me to care about. >> Yeah, the Nick's not the point, but I'm just the point is like I don't even know what to say. It's just >> deep breath in, deep breath out. Um, okay. This is a good chart uh uh from Apollo. So, we've obviously looked at concentration in a million different ways, right? I I I've never seen it though done this way. So the chart that they made is the combined weight because we've we've had periods of time where there has been concentration. Um the last time we saw extreme concentration like just two stocks was it was it AT&T and General Electric or AT&T and General Motors? I can't remember. >> General Motors. Yeah. >> Okay. >> AT&T was like 12% of the total or something. This is like the 30s and General Motors was like 10. It was it was a high number for those two. Yes. So, we've seen we've seen concentration before, but we've never seen it like this where he's looking at the combined weight of stocks with a 3% or more weight in the S&P 500. >> The combined weight of weight. Okay. >> Right. >> Okay, I got it. >> So, uh, now this only goes back to 95 and I'm guessing because if you take it back farther, it's less radical. So this is Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google. Probably like probably those five I would I would guess. Let's see. Yeah, those are the ones with 3% weight or above. Those five. >> So those five are 30% of the market. >> And interestingly, we've been doing a lot of uh Matt's been doing a lot of chart work on this. The MAG 7 versus the MAG versus the 493, like the ratio, it's breaking down. meaning the Mac 7 have been underperforming the rest of the market on a relative basis which um I guess like tell me in six months I'll tell you in six months whether that was good or bad but I like the idea of passing the baton giving some other >> speaking of stocks I've been I've been floating this theory out to you for the past few weeks a little bit our small caps of 2026 the international stocks of 2025 so this is from the Wall Street Journal small cap stocks finished week at records Friday marked the 11th straight session of the Russell 2000 beating the S&P 500. The Russell is up a lot more than the S&P and the NASDAQ this year. >> That's weird. 11 straight sessions. >> It's a lot, right? >> I'm going to ask Matt to chart this. >> Um, so they're talking about the, like you said, the rotation trade and it says booied by robust GDP growth and strong corporate earnings, investors have been shifting from mega cap tech stocks in favor of stocks poised to benefit from economic reaceleration such as industrials, energy companies, and small caps. And this is the kind of thing that in six months why the geopolitics stuff doesn't matter if earnings are still going gang busters and GDP growth is strong. No one cares about geopolitics. Not in the markets. Okay. Um look at the Russell 2000 chart. This thing is taking off, right? Right. And if you look since the bottom, now this is another surprise because it was surprising that international stocks outperformed last year in the big AI trade from the bottom of liberation day, which is April 8th. Okay. The Russell 2000 is now beating the NASDAQ 100 and beating the S&P 500. It's up 53% from the bottom in April, more than large cap stocks, which again I think is surprising given the fact that this is an AI only market and there's so much concentration and they're spending all the money and they're such a big part of GDP. I think this would surprise some people. >> Yeah, me too. Here's another one from Apollo. >> Hang on though. The thing is I I think one of the reasons you think hope small cap stocks are going to outperform is because rates are going to fall. So I guess bond yields rising could be the thing that derails this because that that was the hope, right? That that small caps got hurt way more because of rising rates because they borrowed those higher rates and the big cap big cap didn't have to worry about it because they already locked in lower rates before. >> Yeah. But the long end of the curve is is really what's steepening. I like they're not borrowing it for 30 years. So I think they're less impacted by that. >> True. >> Um >> the year of small caps mark it down. >> Yeah. I uh I'm bullish on small caps. Um the Russell 2000 I think 60% of the index is is negative earnings. Is that about right? It's a large number. So, Apollo breaks down the performance since uh I guess since Liberation Day lows or April 2025. I'm not sure why they use that date, not even the lows, whatever. Companies with negative earnings per share have beaten the crap out of companies with positive earnings per share in the index. Which is funny because that's the thing that because if if this really because people always throw this stat out, right, about the negative earnings like if you wanted to just own the higher quality companies or own like a value ETF, right? Or a high quality >> No, the S&P 600. >> Yeah. Or the 600 that it's more high quality. It takes out those negative earners. And you would have been wrong, I guess. >> So even though the Russell has performed well since liberation day lows, it's underperformed dramatically dramatically for the past couple of years. So since the peak in November 2021, it's only up 16%. >> So I look at this as a positive. >> So it's it's gone like four years. >> Yeah. >> Of sideways to nowhere. So since the November 21 peak, the S&P is up 57%. The Russell is only up 16%. >> Which is I don't know what does that compounded 3% a year? Whatever. It's nothing. It's done terribly. So, I agree. I agree with you that this could easily be the beginning of a bigger move. >> It's like why did international stocks top perform so much last year? Part of it was a dollar and part of it was they were so beaten down. It didn't take much good news for them to come back. >> So, look at look at this next chart that check that that Sean made. All right. So, this is the annual returns for the S&P versus the Russell 2000. And the last time the Russell 2000 outperformed was 2020 by a cent. I mean, by like barely anything. It's gotten destroyed almost every other year since 2016. >> Yeah, you're right. If anything, you hang your hat on like it's a due, right? >> It has been a minute. >> Okay. Uh, Greg Ip at the Wall Street Journal. Here's the headline. Trump wants to run the economy hot. There's a good chance he'll succeed. All right. So he's saying Washington has three levers to affect growth. Fiscal policy, monetary policy, and credit policy. And credit policy is like borrowing, the ease of borrowing. And he's saying historically these three things have not been coordinated. He's saying now they kind of are. We're spending a lot of money still. We're reducing rates for monetary policy. And we're trying to ease credit. So he's saying listen like with those things typically like he's probably going to succeed to run the economy hot. Like that's why let me ask you a question. >> GDP now is like 5% for this quarter. >> Zooming out in terms of like how we're thinking about um the stock market in 2026. On the one hand, on the one hand, you have an accommodative backdrop like you just mentioned, right? From from central banks to the government to the AI tailwinds and uh those are that that's a very important thing to consider. Obviously, on the other hand, you have investor expectations, earnings per share expectations pretty high on both sides. We showed the chart last week of ETF flows. Like investors are obviously excited, as they obviously should be. If so, facto are they too excited? And this is the type of thing where it's like you can, you know, uh the CNN Princess Bride, right? you just spin yourself in in circles like yes things are good but everybody knows it's good and then I think generally that line of thinking is too cute at the extremes fine when everybody's like jumping over themselves to raise price targets and truly going like nuts on speculation then I would say all right guys like this is silly season it's not silly season just if you just look at the prices of things that we're talking about it's not silly season at all. It's just not >> I'm going to have to update this, but I did this thing once where I looked at um how often earnings are up in a given year, but the stock market is down or earnings are down and the stock market is up. And it happens more often than you think in just one year period, right? And obviously the trend probably matters more than anything, but it sure is possible that expectations and I think expectations more along the lines of just returns have been so good. That's that's the only thing for me. But yeah, if you look at this stuff with the economy, it's hard to think that like things are going to roll over immediately and all of a sudden go bad and and tech companies are all of a sudden going to pull back. Um >> I listened to um so Josh and I are going to do some financial stuff on what are your thoughts tonight? So I was I was looking at Bank of America's report this morning and to me they are the source of truth. Like when I want to know what's going on, what's really going on with the US consumer, I don't tell me about like um Dollar Tree or Target or these retailers because it's a very competitive market. There's all sorts of different forces that are that are at play. I go to the source of truth and for me that's Bank of America. >> So my my wife's source of truth now is Chad GPT. Like if I tell her something, she won't believe me until she can cross reference with ChatGpt. She believes everything AI tells her, right? She thinks that Chad GBT is just wonderful. Uh for you, that's credit card companies. >> It's Bank of America specifically. >> Okay, that's the way. >> They are they are the bank for Main Street. >> All right. So, here's what they're going to tell you probably. So, this is from our friends Ryan and Sonu uh at Carson Group. So, they said Ryan says household balance sheets are in the best shape they've been in since check. He said, "Yes, there's a lot of debt, but there's also a lot more equity." So what they did here is they broke down all the assets and all the liabilities and they looked at going back to 1999, 2007 and 2019 kind of like some prior peaks and they look at the asset percentage to the liability percentage and it's like yes the debt has grown but the assets have grown even more. So even it's kind of crazy that we're in household balance sheets are in a much much better place from an asset liability perspective than they were in 1999. And the 1990s are still widely considered one of the great economic decades in history for for good reason. And consumers are in a much better place now than they were back then. This is this is assets and liabilities and net worth as a percentage of disposable income. Consumers are in a better shape now than they were in 1999. >> Amazing. >> It's kind of crazy, right? >> So there's a great Charlie Munger quote when we're thinking about assets versus liabilities. And yes, the numbers are reality. I love the quote where he says the liabilities are always 100% good. It's the assets you have to worry about. And so when we're talking about debt and interest rates and what's the breaking point, it's not in a vacuum, right? With asset prices this high, yeah, things look pretty damn good. >> You're right. that that can easily shift with a bare market or whatever. >> Yeah. Like if the assets are 30% lower because of a recession or bare market, then everything is different because the liabilities don't change. Um but getting getting back to back getting back to Bank of America their net charge offs they so they break it down through the consumer credit cards um commercial properties and consumer net charge offs are going down and they have been consistently. >> All right. So you're going to give us the full breakdown next week? >> No, I'm going to do that. I want your thoughts tonight. I'm just saying like things if things are things are fine according to this one source of truth and it's not to say everything is fine always and you know everywhere obviously there are pockets of stress as always are >> no last week you wanted to survey each individual American and ask them how they're doing before we realize things were good now you're going back to macro >> no no I think that when you are talking about real estate you you are like acting as if there's one buyer and do they regret it's like come on I will push back against that for the rest of time I'm sorry those are not the same thing >> all All right, we need to offer Maya. Maybe you do actually. You want to read this? We had a few people write on this. This This was a good This was because we didn't I guess we didn't read this chart right last week. So, we need >> this. No, no, this is great. So, last week we shared a chart for Apollo did their update on real estate and the the title of the chart is Freddy Mack serious delinquency rates multif family and this is significantly higher than during the GFC period. Um, and obviously that's nerve-wracking. So, we called it out and um, somebody, two people actually were kind enough to to check us in the in the inbox. Somebody said, uh, it's the multif family loans. So multif family delinquency rate information is based on the UPB of I'm not sure what that stands for of mortgage loans that are two monthly payments or more past due or in the process of forclosure >> unpaid principal balance. >> Okay. You guys talked about this as if this is the renter de delinquency. It is not. So I had chatbt I I uploaded this chart and I said like explain to me exactly what's going on here. And the TLDDR from chat is this is not renters falling behind, which is what we thought it was. It's apartment owners who borrowed aggressively in a low rate world now struggling to service and refinance their debt >> because rents are falling. >> Two very different things, >> right? And I'm guessing one of the reasons is because rents are falling in a lot of places. And so people You're right. People went hog wild building apartments. I think it was like all-time highs for apartment building because rates were so low. So that makes that actually this makes sense. >> So speaking of Freddy Mack, my my uh book habits and not just with audio books like this is when I was like aggressively reading back in the day, I would like fixate on a topic and I would squeeze all the juice that I wanted to squeeze out of a topic and then I would move on to something else. So part of you know it was like the presidents and then it was history and then this and then that whatever. So, I right now I'm revisiting the >> You know your middle age when it's World War II. >> I haven't done that yet. I know that I'm safe enough for retirement. Uh who has time for that? That's that's a bear. Um so I saw in light of the credit card proposals, modest proposal tweeted like read all the devils are here for unintended consequences. Funny enough, I think all the devils are here. That's Joan Oer and Bethany Mlean. That actually might be the last book that I stopped reading. Whenever I stopped reading, I think I got to half of that book and I for no good reason. I was just like, you know what, maybe it was maybe co happened. I can't remember. But that is a book that I enjoyed and I like got a third of the way through. So I said, you know what? Great idea. Let's revisit that book. So I just finished it. Um, >> are you sure you got the name right? >> All the devils are here. >> Is that another name of it? I I get names wrong all the time. I could be wrong. Oh, nope. You're right. All the devils are here. The hidden history of the financial crisis. Okay. >> Okay. >> I never heard of that one. >> So, from there, I I'm I'm listening now to Andrew Ross Orin's book, Too Big to Fail. Never read that one. And then I'm going to finish. I think I'm probably do one more. I'll probably do one. >> You're going back to the GFC. >> I don't know why. I just Yeah, I feel like I know I we we did that already. I did that in like 2012 when those books came out. But I'm doing >> I honestly felt like the big short was the only one you needed to read. >> Yeah. I mean, yeah. So good. So anyway, it just it's it's a reminder of the time period that we live through and how completely upside down the world was and the the literal not just liquidity problems at the banks, but the utter insolveny of them. We I I've said this, >> the stark contrast of where we are today versus people looking for the next big short. Are you out of your mind? The financial system almost came under legitimately. >> It was it was scary. We uh I've said this story before, but it's worth repeating. We had a hedge fund client. We invested in a hedge fund and we were on a call with them and we had we had calls all the time. Like I I got a new job in July of 2007 for the endowment fund I worked for. like right as the credit stuff really started bubbling up like one of those credit funds blew up and so in the September of 2008 when everything was blowing up layman brothers went under we had a guy on a Friday say go to the ATM right now get as much cash as you can because Monday the banks might not open he was dead serious in that >> Muhammad said that I think Muhammad said that at one of the conferences that we saw him speak at like that was >> it was re and it was a real thing it wasn't like that wasn't hyperbole yes that was a that was a crazy crazy and honestly for me as a young person in finance experiencing that it was like I think one of the best things that could have ever happened to me cuz I saw like people losing their minds and blowing up left and right and like the unintended consequences of the aftermath of that. It was such a good learning experience for me. Okay. Is AI going to make money worthless? This is a piece from the Wall Street Journal. Why the tech world thinks the American dream is dying? The argument some people are putting forward is that tech companies and leaders will become a class under their own infinite wealth. No one else will have the means to generate money for themselves because AI will have taken all their jobs and opportunities. In other words, the bridge is about to be raised for those chasing the American dream. And everyone is worrying about being on being left on the wrong side. And they interview some people who like have these thoughts like, "Hey, listen. AI is it's going to be like Star Trek. Like I'm not a Star Trek person, but I know that technology basically solved everything. So that's why they could explore all these lands and like it could make anything you wanted." Um, and there's some people in Silicon Valley who are saying like, "This is legitimately the last time to get wealth. So get it now. Otherwise, it's it's done." Can we just pause on the Star Trek thing? >> Star Trek was like one of the biggest shows ever at the time. >> Yeah. I I don't think I ever watched a whole episode probably. >> I think like Yeah. Like maybe maybe like our dads watched it. I have no idea. We don't know how good we have it these days. People used to have to watch Star Trek. Like that was what a lame show for nerds, but like that was what it was. No offense to all the >> Star Trek fans on that one. Um, I have a I have a new analogy for AI because like I said, my my wife all the time will will do something on Chad GPT and she'll be like, this is amazing. She's like, I can't believe how good this is, but I think AI is like Rainman. You know, in Rainman when they're at the doctor's office and they're they're giving him math problems like what's 3,612 times 4,213? And he he's like 57. And he says all the and then then Tom Cruz is like, "Oh my gosh, he's a genius." Then he goes, "Ray, what's 2 + 3?" And he's like, "7." That's AI. Because every time I ask it to do something simple, it can't do it. Look at this chart here. I did another one where I tried to do the history of the S&P 500, and it kept giving me the same years twice, 1976 or 1987. And then I'd say, "Hey, stop giving me the same years twice." And then it would mess up the word financials or the word utilities. I don't understand. Someone has to explain to me who's smarter than me. Why is it so hard for AI to do simple tasks, but it can do these monumentally difficult tasks so easily? I don't understand. >> I'm pretty sure whoever emails us an explanation, the explanation won't make sense to us. >> Probably, but there has to be a good explanation. Like I I just want to know why can't it do simple stuff like this? >> Somebody said somebody emailed us that you guys are asking you guys are using it wrong. You have to ask it specific questions in a specific way. like tell the machine that you are an analyst that's looking for X, Y, and Z. Like you can't just you can't just ask a question. You have to like frame it in a certain way. I don't know if that's true or not. I haven't played around with it enough. >> Okay. That that doesn't make sense to me either, but okay. I I don't understand why it can't do simple tasks. >> It's Rainman. >> I uh I finally started taking out all of my photos and things to hang on the wall. We were home yesterday for MLK day. And I said, "You know what? I finally have a minute. Let me let me take the bubble wrap off. Let me >> Wait, can you actually hang stuff yourself?" >> Hey, I can't help you with that. >> No, I mean, I can, but Robin won't let me. And she's probably right, cuz I won't get them straight. >> Okay. >> So, uh I mean, yes, I can h I can hammer a thing into a wall. I can't. Not to not totally derail your story, but we had all of our walls painted and we took everything off and even like the toilet paper holders, you know, and I'm like, we need to let's get new ones cuz the kids mess them up and stuff. So, I'm I told my wife like, I'll put these in. I can I know what I'm doing. I I'll install these. So, I put the toilet paper hangers in. >> I don't know how those hang. It's like magic. Like, how do they because I know exactly what you're talking about. How do they go on to the wall? >> What's keeping them there? >> You put these there's like drywall holders in. So I did it and within a month all of them were like they all fell down. Like it was a one just a straight line, you know, and they all fell down and I had to find the stud and I had to redo them all. >> I hate toilet paper holders. I just hate all of them. >> I hate them all. >> Okay. >> Yeah. >> Hanging stuff on the wall. Anyway, so I took them all out and I told Robin that uh that I was going to take pictures of all of them, take pictures of my wall and have the computer lay them out for me, which I know it could do that, right? It could do that. I didn't even get that [ __ ] She told me to stop right she said stop right there. Don't don't do anything. >> That's the thing. It can it can give you the layout and give you all the measurements and stuff and it just it's it's harder than it So you're going to what are you going to do? Hire someone to hang your wall pictures? Yeah, I have a handyman, Mike. >> Okay. >> Yep. >> Do you think he like laughs to himself internally? Like, this schmuck can't even h hang stuff in the walls. >> Mike's a great guy. He doesn't overcharge me. >> Okay. >> He uh he likes to talk stocks with me. So, nice guy. >> All right. Uh can we can we talk can you explain to me the crypto stuff with Coinbase? >> Oh, no. Matter of fact, I can't. I I can't. Um >> Okay. I have not read a single thing about it. Coinbase did something to piss off the administration. I I'm I'm going to read it. I just haven't got it in up to speed yet. Could you tell me anything about it or we're both ignorant right now? >> I read the story Josh posted for us, but it just said Coinbase didn't like the because it could impact their stable coin yields and it sound like everyone was mad at Coinbase. So, I I don't know. I thought maybe you were plugged into the crypto. Maybe someone can >> fill us in. Okay, >> I will I will get plugged in. I just haven't I just haven't read it yet. Um All right. This is this is this is news. Oh, the markets are open. All right. So S&P is I mean the equal weight's down 80 basis points. S&P is down 130. I mean whatever. >> The Russell 2000 is positive. Do Am I seeing that right? >> No, you're not seeing that right. >> Okay. I want it to work. >> Russell is down 1%. Gold is up three and a half%. Holy moly. Uh silver is up six%. The VIX is uh I mean the VIX is at 19. This is like this is this is nothing. But uh >> I never thought we'd see another gold silver bubble in my lifetime. >> I bought silver when it was 50 bucks in 2011. I I I have no I said this to Josh. Maybe I haven't said it on this show. I bought silver I bought silver on the when it broke out at like 36 bucks and I think I sold it at like 42 and I felt like a genius. >> What is it now? >> 85 or 86. >> All right. not a silver trader. >> Uh, okay. This is news. The New York Stock Exchange today announced its development of a platform for trading and onchain settlement of tokenized securities. Uh, for which it will seek regulatory approval. I'm guessing they're going to get it. NIC's new digital platform will enable tokenized trading experiences, including 247 operations, instant settlement, order size, and dollar amounts, and stable Coinbased funding. 247 instant settlement. Okay, >> I know that's one people probably I think instant settlement is probably the biggest thing for a lot of people, right, >> dude? I don't I transfer money to a custodian on Monday. Um, and I need to transfer back out and the money still hasn't settled. How is that possible? Monday of last week. I did a custodian to custodian transfer. I think I put it in motion before the end of the year and it just settled last week. It took like six weeks to happen. It took forever. Really long time. in like an in transfer of of securities. >> If it's settled yet transfer now, I I could trade it. I don't want to trade it. I want I want my money back. Nope. How How is this possible? It's been It's been over a week. >> So, the funny thing is is that that's going to be the benefit for people, but then people are also going to say like, "Wait, this happened way too quick. I didn't mean to do it." It's that's going to be like the >> I don't think people are going to complain about things moving too quickly. >> All right. This is well the opposite of bad is good in this case for the most part. >> I don't I don't like 247 trading but the other stuff is fine with me. All right let's talk let's talk housing from Axios the share of US mortgages by interest rate and they look at 6% or higher versus 2.9% or lower and 2.9% or lower was way it was almost 25% of all mortgages in 2022 and the share of 6% or higher was less than 10%. Now the share of 6% or higher is more than those with 3% or lower. So like the world is healing I guess getting more normalized for mortgage holders. >> I I think this is actually a good a positive for the housing market because it means fewer people holding on to those 3% mortgages and more people who are willing to trade and have activity. Correct. >> Oh, I see what you're saying. Um yeah, it could be. >> Sorry. Do you hear that drilling in the background? I have no idea what's going on. >> I have no idea. Maybe someone's hanging pictures on their wall. Um, all right. From the Wall Street Journal, uh, Gen X and millennials will inherit trillions in real estate over the next decade. And they look at they look at this through the lens of luxury real estate. But I think this is a big going to be a huge story for just everyone. So over the next decade, 1.2 million individuals with a net worth of 5 million or more projected to pass on more than $38 trillion globally. Gen Xers and millennials will inherit $4.6 $6 trillion in global real estate over the next 10 years. Uh 2.4 million trillion of that is in the US. And they look at all these different like wealth transfers by by net worth. Um they said Americans with a net worth of more than 5 million are expected to pass down 17.3 trillion over the next decade. Uh it's going to be a lot of money changing hands. And they talk about how a lot of rich people are trying to figure this out and get ahead of it and make sure their kids are okay. And um I just think it it's it's going to be it's not going to happen all at once. Obviously, it's going to be a slower it's not going to be a giant title wave. It's going to be a slower, you know, tide coming in and coming out. >> This is like the 10,000 baby boomers retiring every day. It's going to play >> and obviously people have been talking about the great wealth transfer for years because they can see it coming. Um but like what what se segment of the economy is going to have the biggest is going to feel the most from this? I mean, cuz I think there's going to be upheaval with financial adviserss, right? Hey, my parents use this person. I don't want to use them. I'm going to change over. There's going to be a lot of that. I believe >> I think there's going to be a probably a lot of young people who go, I would rather have the money than the house. I don't want this house my parents lived in. What am I going to do with it? Unless I move in, I'm going to sell it. I think there So, I think there's there is going to be a lot of change because of this wealth transfer. >> Yeah. >> Like, what do you think it's going to mean? Um, >> we we've never had a group this large with this much money live this long before. We've never had this before. This is a totally new thing. >> All right, let me let me make a a lame what do I think is going to happen prediction. Nothing. I think it's going to be so slow and gradual that these people are going to be transferring real estate, aka dying, over the next 30 years. So, I don't think that there we're going to wake up one day with like, oh my god, there's so many homes for sale because unless we have like another CO situation and even still that did nothing. Um, god forbid. But I I just think that it's going to be like a sort of boring slow and steady thing and the I guess the biggest impact is going to be the rich get richer. >> Yeah, you're right. And and I think that's the hard part is people think like, well, the rich are all going to sell people are going to sell their assets all at once when this gets transferred down. No, it's mostly going to be rich people giving the money to the rich kids and they're not going to sell anything. >> Well, they'll sell their homes. >> Yeah, but but I'm saying like stocks and stuff like financial securities. That stuff is not going to like see a big wave of selling because of this. >> No, I don't think so. >> Yes. But I I do think hopefully that will unlock some houses for people to buy in in the years ahead that a lot of people aren't going to want their baby boomer parents houses. They're going to want they're going to want to get out of them and just take the money. Um, well, we don't have to guess because you can just see this in the demographic data. There are there are more people that are going to be of home buying age than there are of people passing away and unlocking real estate. Like, it's still going to be way upside down. Demand the demand supply imbalance. >> I also don't think I don't think we're prepared as a society for the level of death we're going to have in years ahead. I know that's a really morbid thing to think about, but just the transition that happens. I saw this with my brother. The amount of things that need to happen when someone passes away with their accounts and their their money and their everything about them, it's not. So, I I had a conversation with my dad right afterwards and said, "I'm not prepared for like you and mom someday. Like, we need to have a we need to sit down and have a discussion cuz I did with my brother." And so, like at the holidays, my dad handed me this envelope. He's like, "Here's everything. Here's our passwords. Here's our accounts. here's if something should happen to me and your mother's by yourself or to both of us like and you need to know where everything is like I don't think how many people are having those conversations >> very probably not many right >> yeah no it's not a fun conversation >> it makes like a messy situ Yeah it's not fun at all but it makes like a a bad situation even worse when you have to deal with all that stuff and like sort through it all on your own you know >> especially since everything in the past you could go through someone's filing cabinet and find everything now everything's online and if you need to get someone's password it's it's through their phone or their you know they they have to like you. It's the on them. >> It's much harder to get that stuff these days. >> Yeah. I remember having that conversation with my mother. I was probably 23. I mean, I was completely emotionally unequipped to have that conversation and it was it was not fun. >> Yeah. No, it's not at all. But yeah, like having ahead of time. All right. Getting down to wealth. Uh Citadel Securities had a good piece here. I think I think Mev shared this on the idea farm. Um now I have to I have to request Citadel. Whoever's making their charts, listen, they make they're that's a huge organization. They make a lot of money for people. They need to increase the font on their charts. You see how small the font is on these things? >> Can't read it. >> It's it's comically small. And so they look at household wealth by percentile group. They're looking at the top 1%, the next nine, the next 40, and the bottom 50. Okay? And obviously the the top 1% holds most of it. The top 10% holds most of it. We know that, right? I think the top 10% um is like almost 70% of the total. But they look at the growth in household wealth by percentage. This is something we've talked about and this is since 2012. By far the biggest relative gainer is the bottom 50% who've seen their wealth rise by almost 1,200%. Versus call it a 150 to 200% growth for the rest of the group. Now part of this is probably when they chose to start this because that was the kind of the bottom of the housing market. So that bottom 50% got dinged the most then. Um, but if you look at the ownership of equities too, the biggest growth since the 2010s is in that bottom 50%. Their ownership of equities is up almost 500%. It's a massive jump for the bottom 50%. And I obviously it's still a tiny amount relatively speaking. I still think this is one of the best outcomes of the 2020s. The fact that the bottom 50% has been brought more into the financial markets. And the last one, the household ownership uh by age group, people under 40. >> Under 40 is by again the biggest thing. We've talked a little, but these are good charts here. As long as you know, Citadel, talk to Chart Kid Matt about the font. The font got got to be a little bigger. Good charts. >> It's funny that the narrative of Robin Hood over the years has shifted so dramatically, >> right? >> They were the bad guys and now in in some opinions, they're the good guys. Or maybe it's not it's not bad or good. It's it's shades. But uh but they did this like >> this, you know, that they didn't cause a pandemic, but like they were, you know, right place, right time, >> but uh >> another weird outcome of the pandemic though, right? Like who would have ever thought we're going to have a pandemic that's going to keep people in their houses. It's going to be an awful situation. What's it going to do? It's going to lead more people to invest in the stock market. Who could have ever predicted that? >> Yeah. Uh speaking of predictions, my Seahawks not winning the Super Bowl prediction is not looking so hot. >> Man, I've gotten a lot of notes on that lately. So, I made that I made that it's it's it's hilarious. >> Daniel, you got to pull the clip on that. Michael saying, "Listen, the Seahawks aren't winning the Super Bowl. It's not going to happen." >> I made that prediction in week 16, I believe, or 17. >> Wait, are you still holding on to this bet or did you sell out of it? >> Yeah, I'm still holding. >> Okay. I think you have to hold at this point. You have to You have to hold. >> So, I could take I could take a 40% loss. >> Um, which is whatever. It's funny. >> What's the payout if if the Seahawks Let's say they lose in the Super Bowl. What's the payoff if you win? >> So I I uh I might Okay, I bought So it was 86 cents for No. And I'm thinking when I did it like this is a 14% return. Forget about I wouldn't make the bet if it was minus 800 or whatever it translates to, but I like 86 cents. Like that's a 14% return. It's free money. It's a no-brainer. They're not going to win. And then they destroyed the the ners on prime time and uh I felt a little pit in my stomach like uh oh they look they look really good. Uh and my whole thing was like Sam Darnold's not winning Super Bowl. They don't need Sam Darnold to do anything. Like they're just so dominant. Um I do think that the that the Rams can beat them. I really do. But uh but am I? So anyway, I I have way too much money now against the Seahawks and and uh I want out. >> Predicting the future is hard. >> I want out. Yeah, predicting the future is hard. >> Yeah, you I mean there's some injury luck in there, too. But yeah, they >> you know, I've karma has bitten me in the butt cheeks a few times recently with the Seahawks and the flu and Delta. So, a couple of weeks ago, we were talking about Delta's earnings, and you were like, either you or Josh said like, "What? Why is Delta so much better than every other airline?" >> Yeah, that was me. >> Okay. And I was like, I don't know, but like I only fly Delta and I've had nothing but awesome experiences. Like, I've flown a lot in the last three years and I've had like one delay. I had a really bad experience on Thursday. So on Thursday night, I made the quickest trip of my life to Los Angeles. I was supposed to land at 11:00, client meeting the next morning, then be on a plane out at 3:00 the next day. So in the air almost as long as I was on the ground and for whatever I can't they gave a reason. I don't know what it was. The the wrong plane was at this at the gate, whatever. It was like a 2 and a half hour delay. Didn't land >> on the plane or waiting. >> No, thank God. Okay. But like it was just it was not pleasant. You know, people were getting anxious. It was late. And then to add insult to injury, um, you know, I love Delta's airplane. Yeah. I love Delta's movies. In fact, I think, didn't we hear from the person that chooses the movies? >> I think >> I came over was on Delta. >> What a cool job. >> Mhm. >> This movie selection stunk. I was I >> Or maybe it's Maybe it's not to brag. I've just seen too many of these movies. Yeah. >> I watched The Conjuring Last Rights. That movie was such a pile of [ __ ] that I turned it off with 10 minutes to go in and like there was 10 minutes left. I said, "I don't want I don't want to finish this." >> That's a lot. Okay, speaking of movies, uh, Friday night, I pull up Netflix. What do I see? Oh, there's a brand new Matt Damon Ben Affleck movie. I forgot this was going straight to Netflix. That's one of the beauties of streaming. You can just turn on Netflix on a Friday, be like, "Oh, there's a brand new movie with Hollywood stars." So, they've been making the rounds. They've been doing they've got this movie called The Rip. Did you see it? Mhm. >> Okay. We'll talk about the movie in a minute, but they've been making their own. They've been doing the podcast tour. They've been talking a lot. It's funny. People probably watch the podcast clips more than the movie. >> Did you listen to Did you listen to Rogan? >> I didn't listen to I honestly didn't listen to any of their podcasts. I just listened to some of the the clips. I haven't listened to the Rogan interview. It's so good. I'm only halfway done, but it's just so there's >> I don't know which one he talked about at this, but this is the quote from Matt Damon that's been flying around. He said, "The standard way to make an action movie that we learned was you usually have three set pieces. One in the first act, one in the second, one in the third. You spend most of your money on that one third act. That's your finale. And now it's like, can we get the big one in the first 5 minutes? We want people to stay. And it wouldn't be terrible if you reiterated the plot three or four times in the dialogue because people are on their phones while they're watching. >> That was sure. >> Okay. And that's obviously very sad, but I totally understand why they do this. And this is one of the reasons why every time I watch a Netflix movie, I go, "What what is it about this movie that just doesn't feel like a normal movie?" and that must be it that they're making they're trying to optimize these to keep people's attention and not like a regular movie. Something about it just doesn't feel like a normal movie. So, here's my take on the movie. >> This movie sucked. >> I watched it. I It felt like they sent Damon and Affleck a Gerard Butler script and they went, "You know what? Like it accidentally like here's a Liam Niss or Gerard Butler like straight to DVD movie, straight to streaming movie." And they went, "You know what? We get to work with each other again. It's a B minus action flick. Netflix is gonna throw the bag at us and then we get to go on the podcast tour and talk about how great we are and how we made Goodwill Hunty together. Who cares? Let's do it. Everyone else is getting in the bag. Why don't we? That's kind of how this felt. To me, this was a Bminus action movie. And they were they were still like their acting was good in it, but it was um >> it sucked. And it was to me, this movie was sad because it felt exactly like the Netflix movies do. And they all they all just have >> there was like a half hour of it where I was kind of when they were figuring out what to do with the money cuz it's like, hey, there's a there's a house with a bunch of money. What do the cops are dirty? And when they were for a half hour, I was like kind of intrigued. But yeah, it was just a not good action movie. Yeah, I had like I had a decent enough time watching it. >> Listen, it's fully >> watchable. My take is was it a good movie? Absolutely not. Did I kind of enjoy it? Yeah, I did. I enjoyed it. I still I still enjoyed myself. >> Yeah, it was fun. It was like it was like moderately fun enough, but like it just was hollow. It just was like dumb and stupid and what is happening? And it it felt like a Netflix movie. >> Like the first scene five minutes in, you're kind of like, oh, okay. So anyway, >> and the and the director is a real director. He did uh The Gray with with Liam Niss. He did Narc. He did um >> You're saying The Gray is a real director? No offense to this guy. >> I like that movie. >> Okay. >> I like I saw that in the theater obviously. Um >> I said this could have been a Liam Niss movie. >> It just it just wasn't good. >> All right. We we offered a a mayopa earlier in the show. Uh, I might have to offer one to you, too, because I listened to the movie draft on the Town podcast about what's coming out in 2026, and you said 2026 is going to be bigger than 2025. And I said, "No way. You're nuts." And you said, "Well, the Michael Jackson movie, but >> here's what's coming out. There's a new Mario Brothers movie, the new Toy Story, a new Avengers, a new Moana, a new Spider-Man, a new Minions, a new Dune, a new Star Wars something, a new Jumanji, and a new Devil Rous Prada." Now, those are all retreads, of course, which to me is like, so they're probably gonna make a ton of money. >> Well, you've got a big one. Scream 7 is gonna be huge with Nef Campbell's coming back. >> But has she been in all the recent ones? >> Maybe it's a cameo. >> Okay. Um, this is also kind of depressing for me. Like, all the big movies this year just going to be so like the ones that I want to see or they're not is The Odyssey and Project Hillary. Those are the only ones I probably really care about. But it's kind of depressing to me that like why did they have to make another Toy Story? >> Why did they have to make another Avengers? It's it's a depressing state of the movies that this is all we do now. >> Well, mostly true. Obviously, mostly true. But can I just offer you some other things that are that I'm excited to see? Uh I can't wait to see I can't wait to see 28 Years Later. I I might try and go tonight if I can. Everyone loves >> another retread. >> Sure. But it's not Yeah, I guess it is. >> Yeah, >> but it's not like a a Marvel movie. Uh, Send Help, the new Sam Ramy movie with Rachel McAdams. >> Have you seen that one? >> Okay, I'll wait on Netflix. I'll watch it. Yeah. >> Okay. Um, there's one coming out on Friday. Is Glenn Powell in it? Do you like It looks like um Minority Report. >> Okay, you're not selling me here very much. Um, what is the name of the movie? >> Uh, all right. Uh, Arisious Groom 7. That's not for you, of course. Um, all right. Some more. Oh, Ready or Not, too. I loved Ready or Not. Big Ready or Not guy. Uh, Mortal Kombat sucks. Oh, they're making a Street Fighter movie. That's going to suck, too. Oh, Masters of the Universe. You were definitely a He-Man guy. Okay, that one's also bad. >> You had He-Man underwear. Let's be honest. >> Probably some human action figures. That's If they don't make that like a satire, it's not going to be good. >> Okay. Whoa. Whoa. There's a new Steven Spielberg movie out coming out. >> That one actually looks good. Yes. An alien. >> Okay. With Emily, that's about aliens. Scary movie 6. I'm going to skip that. Supergirl. Not for me. Jackass 5. I'm seeing that in theaters. Love jackass. Uh there's some [ __ ] >> Yeah, I'll read on Friday. >> Let's do a story time before we do our recommendations. I got a couple of movies. Um, did you get either of your kids into wrestling, like WWE? Do they watch any of it? >> Mm-m. >> Okay. Because I grew up on, you know, Hulk Hogan and Andre the Giant. I think I made it all the way through like Brett the Hitman of Heart and Shawn Michaels in when I was in middle school. Then I kind of gave up on it cuz it's like, you know, whatever. Uh, so my son, you know, he loves to he's very physical. Like everyone's in the winter he feels like a caged animal because he can't go outside as much anymore. He's like, "Hey, every night he's like, "Dad, let's wrestle. Let's tackle." >> Hang on. I'm sorry. Sorry. The the new movie is is not Glenn Pal, it's Chris Pratt. It's called Mercy. Have you seen trailers for that? >> Yeah, it looked okay. You're right. >> Looks pretty good. Okay, back to you. Wrestling. >> So, he my son like he has to be like he's like he's like let's wrestle. He like he loves to like mess around and he's like let's tussle. Let's tackle each other and suplex each other. And he loves to wrestle. He can't >> wait each other. He could suplex you. That's impressive. >> Oh. Yeah. He's pretty close. He's going to be bigger than me pretty soon. So I'm like, "Oh my gosh, you're he loves cheesy action movies." I'm like, "He's going to love WWE." So, I put on cuz they have all the old ones on Netflix. So, I put on like the uh what's the big one? Wrestlemania. I put it on forum. Um I used to watch it on pay-per-view with like the shady lines. Like I couldn't get the actual pay-per-view, so I'd try to watch it through the thing. And um we put it on and I forgot the matches are like a half hour long. Um but like 2 minutes into I thought he'd love it cuz these guys are flying off ropes. They're, you know, he's like, "What what is this?" I'm like, "That's wrestling." He's like, "It's fake. They're not really hitting each other. I can tell." And I was like, I didn't know if I was proud of him or should I be. He's like, I want to watch real stuff. Like wanted to see actual. And I'm like, >> oh, I thought you would love this. He hate it. So, should I be proud or should I be worried that he just wants to see people actually get hurt? >> I don't know. >> Because I mean, >> he's 8 years old and he still halfway believed in Santa this year, even though he kind of said, "Hey, Dad, Santa's note looks a lot like your handwriting this year." So, he kind of he wanted to believe, but he still didn't. But, uh, I can't believe that he immediately got that wrestling was fake. Like I I was still into it. >> Yeah, that is impressive. That is impressive. Well, >> I don't mean to like throw shade at people, but I can't believe this. I cuz I watched it, too, and I was like, I forgot how fake this really is. Um I can't believe how many adults still watch this. I cannot believe. >> Phil Huber Phil Huber thinks it's still real. >> Um have you seen the the video? It's real to me. Damn it, that guy. Um I can't believe how many adults watch this because my son in 8 years old saw through to me like, "Oh, this is fake. They're not really hitting each other." >> I have two friends that still watch it. Bill, one of them and another friend from home still watches every uh every whatever every whatever it is. >> Hey, to each their own. I can't believe people think it's entertaining. That's just me. All right, let's do some recommendations. Speaking of Glenn Powell, my wife and I watched The Running Man on Paramount Plus. That was his movie that came out last year. It was a retread of their Arnold movie from the8s. >> I never saw the original >> and I didn't I surprisingly didn't either. I'm a big Arnold fan. And um they tried to kind of keep with the same vibe of the original '8s movie. So, it looked like a movie that was made in the8s made today. I and the premise is just you have 30 days and there's going to be a team of people trying to kill you. You have to run. It's like a dystopian future. Like the guy needed money. So the the idea is good. It's a pretty cheesy action movie. Did I enjoy it? Yeah, I enjoyed it. >> Glenn Powell. Not a good movie. Not like a high quality movie. An entertaining idea. How's that? >> Okay. You know what else is coming out? I just I don't know. I don't know why Glenn Powell reminded me of this. Godzilla minus one. Oh no. Godzilla minus they call is minus zero. I can't remember. There's another one coming out. The first one was amazing. >> Yeah. Lord knows we haven't had enough Godzilla movies over the years. >> No, these are these are real Godzilla, not the nonsense Hollywood one. >> Okay. My son actually did like the first one. Um, all right. So, they did the Golden Globes last week and Rose Burn won best actress for If I Had Legs, I'd kick you. And I just I saw her speech and I thought that looks good. I I knew nothing about this movie. So, I told my wife I'm like, "It's Friday night. Let's watch a movie. Let's pull this up." We rented it. Oh, boy. Um, great performance by her is about the best I can do. It's one of those movies where they're keeping things secret for me at the beginning and so for the first half hour you go, "Okay, this is happening, but something else is going on." And by the end of the movie, you go, "Oh, wait. Nothing else is going on." Um, a very infuriating movie from a plot perspective. >> Great performance. Terrible movie. Like it's it's an Oscar film. >> Okay. Yeah. I I I watched a trailer with uh Robin and I said, "I'm not watching this movie." >> I I couldn't believe that like, "Wait, this is all it's about. Just this." Okay, finally. Uh I had I'm still walking through my Robert Redford catalog that I after he passed away and I never watched them all. I finally watched All The President's Men. I'd never seen it. Obviously not breaking new ground here. I think it won Oscar for best picture. >> Everything. Yeah. >> This Yeah. But the 70s are my my like hole for movies. Um, this movie starts and it goes and it just it's it hits the ground running and I can see why it's why so many people it's it felt like it could have been made today like a period piece about the 70s. It's so so good. I understand why people liked it so much and honestly I knew kind of about the story about what happened at Watergate but not really not like the details of it and uh yeah so good. I will be watching that movie again. It was amazing and Very good. >> Um, all right. Uh, His and Hers, you watching that? >> Didn't start it yet. Worth it? >> Yes. I only saw the first episode. All right. Netflix does those shows very well. They don't do movies. Well, >> they do the crime series. >> So, it's like The Beast and Me kind of a miniseries, right? John Burnthall. >> It's good. Yeah. It's good stuff. I'm in. >> Uh, have you seen Marty Supreme yet? >> Oh, no. Of course you haven't. It's in the theaters. Everyone loves that movie. I'm excited to see it. >> Yeah, you're a big table tennis guy. >> I actually am. I'm I think I can beat you in ping pong. Not to brag. >> I I'm not good at it, so. >> Okay, >> that's not to brag. >> You You seated ground quicker than I thought you would. >> Yep. You could take me. Okay. >> Um All right. Anything else? How's the marker doing? worse. >> Okay. All right. Could we see a replay of last year where we have geopolitical volatility upheaval, quick correction, oh wait, the earnings are still fine. This isn't going to impact the economy. Off to the races. Could we see a repeat? Is that too simple? >> I don't think so. because Liberation Day came out of nowhere and everybody was like, "Wait, what are we doing?" I think that this it's not going to be I I can't imagine like the S&P going down 10% on like tariff threats or Greenland threats or I guess it could, but uh I I don't think it's going to be I think something else would have to happen aside from the nonsense. >> How about this? A market on Koshi for every year for the rest of Trump's presidency. Will there be a 15% decline in the equity markets every year until he's out? >> Well, that's average. >> True. But I I said the double digit is twothirds of every year you have a double digit decline. I think we could just see this volatility every year from geopolitics now. I think that's just the new normal. >> How about this? I would purely from an investor point of view, so only speaking with my investor headon, I would much rather deal with geopolitical volatility than anything else. If there's going to be volatility in the stock market, >> true, >> right? Like because ultimately that is um jawbon and rhetoric and whatever. like give me that all day as opposed to the the story on corporate earnings turning cuz that's that's what really hurts the market. So, um all right, we'll see uh we'll see what we see back next week. Animal Spirits at the compound news.com. Thank you for the emails. Thank you for listening. >> Personal emails, personal responses. Haven't given that one in a while. >> Gosh damn right. Have a great rest of your week. Heat. Heat.