Nuclear/Uranium: Extensive discussion of the US $80B nuclear push, potential strategic uranium reserve, SMRs, and infrastructure-capital involvement, with a positive long-term demand backdrop.
Gold: Bullish longer-term but near-term consolidation likely; central bank buying strong and ETF flows fickle, with miners flush with cash and potential M&A opportunities.
Copper: Very constructive outlook driven by data centers, defense and industrial demand versus constrained supply; fund has ~30% copper exposure and favors long-life endowments.
Lithium: Operational and balance sheet update on Liontown and broader lithium equities; skepticism on government price floors and preference for market-driven outcomes.
Rare Earths: Arafura’s large equity raise (backed by Hancock) seen as timely, but execution and processing complexity underscores sector risk.
Key Companies: Deep dives on DVP (Woodlawn/Sulphur Springs ramp-up and M&A optionality), RMS (5-year plan to 500koz), WGX (delivery driving rerate), LTR/PLS (lithium cycle dynamics), BOE (restart risks), CRN (Stanwell support), ARU (capitalized on market), PPTA/AEM (strategic funding), UAMY and AIS.
Market Mechanics: Emphasis on selecting high-quality uranium developers like NXE, value discipline across gold producers, and using copper names with large resource life for strategic upside.
Deals & Financing: Mixed verdicts on recent deals—sweet on Medallion-Trafigura prepay and Aeris deleveraging, cautious/sour on Coronado’s quasi-lifeline and Albemarle’s catalyst divestiture driven by balance-sheet strain.
Transcript
copper in our fund. It's our biggest single commodity exposure. It's about 30% of the funds. We're very bullish on the outlook there. >> It feels like a buy the dip kind of moment for a lot of people out there, >> but I don't understand the non- gold ones that they've got. >> All righty, Dave Franklin, fourth time on the show. We're thrilled to have you back. Thanks for joining us again. >> No, thank you JD and and Trav. Good to be back and um um looking forward to the chat. >> Exhausted or refreshed given the market? Uh uh a bit of both really. You know, I think there's always um uh there's always things keep you interested, isn't there? So u and always value opportunities. So >> we've got no shortage of things to talk about today. So we're going to kick things off talking a bit of macro. We're going to run through all the commodities, uranium, copper, >> gold, precious more broadly. And then >> we've got a bunch of cordly to jump through as well. So we're going to jump through the the highlights and the low lightss. And then US Antimony Corp. What else? >> Don't forget the deals, mate. Big raises. rare earth financ's up and about, mate. Shareholders are interested. People are buying stocks again. Um maybe not the best stocks all of the time, but you know what? Retail is back and it kind of makes me happy when retail's around. I'm sure it makes a difference to to institutional investors as well, Dave, because you need you need retail flow to um to get a liquidity rerate if you play at the lower end of the curve. >> I I think you're right. I think last time I was on I was talking about being an institutional investor. You go through periods where you're just trying not to lose money and then you're going through periods where you you're making money and um and we're very much in that phase now where you know we're making money in the fund and investors are making money and retail investors are coming in and it all looks good. So um let's hope it uh continues on >> long may it continue. All right guys let's kick off with uranium talk. So big deal overnight between the US government and also involving Westinghouse Electric, Camo and Brookfield. So Camo is up 25% on this one. Essentially we're we're talking about Trump's push for for energy dominance. The the headline is an $80 million $80 billion rather price tag that's going to be written. Japan is going to get involved as well and they are building reactors in the States again. So there's there's a few financials, but the the details are still relatively light on, but it's, you know, it's about sentiment. It's about things happening. It's about Japan getting involved. It's in the leadup of Trump going to speak with Xi and potentially another big trade deal. So there's lots in in the works here. And it comes at a very interesting time because the US hasn't built a big reactor in a a long time. Bogle was the last one they built and that blew out by two and a half times, cost $35 billion. So leaves a bit to be desired there. But reactors are a very very big ticket item. They cost a lot of money. So you kind of need the government to get involved to to hold the hands of the likes of Brookfield and other massive >> capital allocators. But when you sort of hear this hit the wires, what's your kind of first thoughts on this one, Dave? >> Yeah, look, I reckon it's um it's it's a very significant announcement because if you look at the uranium sector, the thing that it's lacked is urgency, right? You've had chemicals out of prom sort of plotting along. You've had the utilities under no real rush to sign up deals. Um while everyone's talking about building new new reactors, they take a long time and cost a lot of money. And I think this changes it. Just says, "Okay, the US is saying we're serious about um nuclear power and we're going to get on and do it." So I think it's um uh you know one of the most significant announcements uh that that um has come out in the sector you know in recent times. >> Huge. Yeah. Huge. The um you know what I found really interesting though about it was like $80 billion $80 billion fund. >> Just a tiny detail $80 billion to be to be allocated to build out these new reactors. The only thing missing in the release was how many reactors is that? How many reactors going to build out that um 80 billion? >> Uh >> I guess it comes to the the size of the reactor, right? But um it's probably something like you know 8 or 10. I would have thought estimated eight but you know yeah anyway so there's a bit to play out here >> with with the Japanese they start talking about helping out with SMRs and these sorts of things which is obviously a much much smaller ticket. So >> we'll kind of see but yeah keen keen to see a lot of numbers and I think you know you >> you get to a point in time 80 billion and above and the the numbers start to to not mean an awful lot there such big numbers. They were talking [clears throat] at the same time about the Japanese coming in investing 300 plus billion dollars in the states in various infrastructure projects, not just uranium. But yeah, it's it's a vast amount of money that needs to be spent and >> the the big tech companies are keen to get involved and do their thing as well. We saw Google come out with a deal earlier this week because the kick up in energy demand. They need the the demand for the data centers. super super encouraging to see the you know the the urgency of of trying to you know create energy abundance in in in all forms. Um, you know, I think that policy is a very wise one. There's a bit to play out, long timelines associated with it all. Some stage the question is going to certainly need to be asked, you know, where is all the uranium going to come from, right? Um, and I I wonder I wonder if if this is the announcement that comes before we're actually going to get another announcement, and that is a strategic uranium reserve announcement. What do you think of that, Dave? Yeah, look, I don't think there's a shortage of uranium when the when the, you know, it's kind of economics wins, right? So, so when the price is high enough to incentivize and you've got government support, um, then I think it'll happen. So, um, I don't, you know, and obviously Australia has a big, uh, a big resource. Uh, Canada has a huge resource. It's just a matter of getting on and and doing it. And I think, um, what this shows is demand is building and that's good for pricing. So um um yeah, I think it's it's heading in the right direction. >> So we we'd kicked about the idea of these types of groups, Brookfield type names getting involved in the um in the nuclear space in the past and I want to go one step further. Can you see a world in which they would get involved at a a project level in some shape or form just to um yeah just seeing the the opportunity there and the the economics of a project for a commodity where the demand you can map out a bit better than you can with with other commodities. >> Yeah. Well well um I think you're right. You know really uh they're big ticket um projects whether it's building a reactor or whether it's uh developing a mine. And so you need people that have and groups that have, you know, long-term horizons. So the Brookfields of the world are well placed for that and and governments are well placed for that. Um, so I think you're right, you know, I think you'll see capital allocated to that sector. It's it's moving into the mainstream. For a long time, it's been on the edge, but I think this really creates the momentum to um to have money directed at it. the the infrastructure funds of the world. They they need, you know, very very long uh long-term, you know, contracts at a at a at a price that, you know, is is um to some degree inflation resistant and and fixed. And, you know, uranium supplying a reactor, it fits the mold of an infrastructure like cash flow dynamic that you can have this the certainty of of of [snorts] price on on FID of these these reactors. I yeah I think I think the application of that financing dynamic into into the mining world is um it's cool like when you last read the big score what was the the what was the the relevance where where Brookfield consortium or the previous incarnation of Brookfield was involved in in some way shape or form in the nickel market. Oh, you're testing my memory here. But it was it was the previous incarnation of the Canadian group that um ultimately became Brookfield >> that got involved and they tried to they tried to partner up with with other groups and and do a deal for for American Diamond Fields. >> Yeah. So, it's it's that like and it's that analogy that um I know you've held NextGen in the past, Dave. Don't know if you've still got it as a core portfolio position. Um but >> the strategic value of arrow like you know >> it it it only goes up in this in this sort of world, right? Well, totally. Um, you know, really what uh there's not many um uh large long-term, you know, high high um high production assets out there. Arrow is one. Um you know, Dennis and uh slightly different style of asset, but uh but that's coming on. But they're both, you know, they're they're both um uh nearing their final approvals. So So you're seeing some major projects um coming forward. Uh and there's a few few others. We own um ISO Energy which is actually 30% owned by NextGen that has a cracking uh deposit in uh in the Aabaska called um Hurricane which um which also looks really interesting. So >> recently merged with Toro >> uh so takeover so it's much bigger than Toro but again that's that's an interesting angle where they're saying >> um we've got great assets in other parts of the world but let's put our foot on some decent scale early earlier stage development assets in Australia which I think is a um an indication that um how they see the geopolitical situation changing in Australia towards >> very keen to see how it changes and the the landscape shape and the the permitting changes here in in our state and in our country more more broadly. Why don't we move on to to gold guys? Been a super volatile time. >> If we zoom out far enough, Dave, since you last came on and since you first came on, it's just been a one-way street. But try telling that to people and it's come off 10% in the last week or so. But >> if you if you look at the average price, like we spoke about before for 2025, still $3,200 and we're sitting at 4,000 bucks right now. Jumping over to silver just quickly. That's also down by a similar margin, maybe a bit more. It's got that kind of talk to it from 55 to to 47. >> Yeah. >> Odd bucks. But there seems to me I'm curious to to just sort of gauge the sentiment with you first. It feels like a bit buy the dip kind of moment for a lot of people out there. A lot of people that have cash around are sitting pretty happy because some of these stocks have peeled off 20 plus% in in the last week or so. Is that am I picking up on the the same sentiment that you are there? >> Yeah, I think so. Yeah, I mean I I think there's a number of factors there as you alluded. I mean gold prices had a huge run and you know between I think the 20th of August and the 20th of October, two months, uh the US gold price rose by $1,000 um 30%. That's crazy, right? Which is incredible. And now it's pulled back 10% and you're right, people are going um you know we're worried here. So um so I think that you know the tailwinds for gold that we all talk about you know debasement of US uh dollar um you know geopolitical risk interest rates coming down etc you know they're all still in place so you got to be bullish on gold but having said that um the the the the rapid rise in the gold price was was accompanied by the even more rapid rise in gold equity prices. So um um so there is a bit of a you know a consolidation that I think needed to happen. Um so um you know so we we we think that you could see uh a bit more consolidation a bit of a a stabilization um but ultimately I think you want to have gold in your portfolio. A sustainable rally is not when price just goes, you know, vertical that that that you do want it to be >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Have periods of having a breather and >> Yeah. >> back up again. >> I I think the other fact what's interesting is you know what's driven gold price particularly recently and what you've seen is a lot of buying in ETFs, gold physical ETFs out of the US, right? And uh and historically that's been pretty fickle, right? So the last time you saw that was co where it was really panic driven. This time I think there's there's a bit of panic. You know the on one side there's people that are worried about what's happening in the world but on the other side I think you got people jumping into gold because they think they've missed it right. So um so there's kind of the a combination of of fear on one side and um and greed on the other right that's been driving it. And just as uh ju just as that happened you know you get a pullback. So momentum wise, you might just uh need a bit of a a settling down period. But but um yeah. >> Well, we I don't think we've actually spoken about it on on the show yet, but the lines at the Perth Mint at the ABC refinery in in Sydney, people >> queuing up for five, six hours to buy a small bar bar of gold that like >> Yeah. >> I find that I didn't have that on the on the on the bingo card for this year. It's funny how you get the, you know, the physical ability to see the interest in some ways, but but it's just, it's just a physical manifestation of more more volume. You know what I mean? Like that's like Yeah. When you get more more market depth on it on the screen, that's the same thing. More more people wanting to buy and >> Yeah. >> and and at a higher price, more people wanting to sell. >> Yeah. Yeah. So on the flip side to that, the the central bank action as you mentioned is quite interesting Dave and we've seen huge central bank buying from the likes of Poland, Turkey, China, these these sorts of countries >> and we are starting to see a couple more countries talk about this. I think Korea mentioned in the past week or so that they would look at adding adding gold to their um their reserves. Gold as an asset class, you you shared a great chart the other day, Trav. Gold as an asset class for central bank holdings is now just shy of of US dollars and they have been sort of converging. It's outstripped uh yen, euro, all these other things. It's a combination obviously of the buying as well as the the increase in price and the overall value of it going up. But they, you know, we like to think they don't operate the same way as retail investors. They're not. They get orders to execute and they just go at it until they're kind of done. That that that's the kind of common wisdom of of how they do it. >> I feel like that's like a a fraught analogy of you know the masters of our um currency not thinking like retail investors. The central bank international central bank community is full of group think. They all do the same thing at the same time. They they you know like I think I don't think you have original thoughts. They copy each other and when they all do something they all do something at the same time. So >> couldn't couldn't agree more. I think more in the execution of of of how they do it, >> the trade. Yeah, sure. But, you know, like to the extent of like um should should we be surprised that all of a sudden every every central bank is pretty concerned about holding us more US dollars than gold? No. In in fact, like yeah, it's like it's the gradually then suddenly kind of thing that plays out. And central banks are are susceptible to more group think than than retail in my opinion. >> We've we've seen it time and time again through the '9s. they all got on board and sold together and every every one of them just sold at the same time until the lows of whatever it was 250 bucks uh by the end of the 90s and then we've seen the reverse. >> I think you're right. It's you know a lot of it is risk management isn't it? is saying we've got too much of our assets in US dollars and where else can we put it and when you look at it that way there's not many places you can put it right so so gold really stands out so that's what we're looking to do but I think in this day and age um you know the question is you know should you be holding um stockpiles of copper for example um because it's very hard you know as far a value proposition over the next 50 years it looks pretty compelling so I I think there is an argument to say uh you know hard commodities um will be recognized for their sort of intrinsic value which hasn't really been a factor. >> The metal content of the 20 cent Australian coin or the nickels in in the US are >> I think they're at par or above par now. So >> hoard your coins. >> Yeah, >> Dave, advice from me [laughter] >> if if you've got any left. >> Melt them down. >> So yeah, on on that segue, let's jump into copper. Copper has been a really interesting place. that's also up 25 odd percent >> through to to where we are like year to date and we are talking about uh mine closures and you know m uh guidance revisions in Chile in Peru in Indonesia in the DRC in every sort of corner of the world you've got the the the smelting and refinering market tightening and you know ebbing and flowing as well so it's a super interesting space and I think the the sentiment there is as kind of constructive as I've seen it in in the the recent history. So, how how do you kind of feel about that? How do you position yourself in in light of that sort of feeling? >> Yeah, look, copper in our fund, it's our biggest single commodity exposure. It's about 30% of the fund. So, um you know, we're we're very bullish on the outlook there and that's because a number of factors. Firstly, it's a big market. You're talking 25 million tons peranom. Um, China's obviously a, you know, a big buyer of copper, but it's not a a dominant and influential, you know, doesn't um, set the price. So, um, so it's a big market and, uh, and operates effectively, which which is good. Uh, if you look on the demand side, you've got a whole lot of demand drivers. You got the normal sort of industrial growth, um, you've got data centers, you've got defense, um, um, etc. So, there's a whole range of of, uh, of demand. And then on the supply side, as you're saying, you've got 40% of production coming out of um Chile and Peru. Uh and they're subject to social unrest and and uh and issues around um you know, production contailments. Um you've got production coming out of um Africa, which we've seen recently, where there's been some issues. So you've got sort of uh strong demand um um and constrained supply, which um which bodess really well. So um we we like it. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's the there's a lot to like and I mean there's there's been a lot to like about copper for for quite some time but it does it does feel as if things are moving in the right direction there. If we if we jump into the um the quarterly reports starting with uh a copperish name developed that's an interesting one. you've held that in in the past. They are ramping up at Wood Lawn. They are talking about name plate there by March 2026. Recoveries are sort of improving, you know, though it was a bit kind of fraught at at the ramp up kind of stage. And then they're talking about the Kate Lens, which is going to be the honeypot for the first kind of couple years, but how are you thinking about it? How you positioned in it at the moment? >> Yeah. So, so we see it's a stock where um you probably don't want to just uh sit and hold. So, you know, we've been in and out of it a bit. Um uh we've been buying a bit more recently uh particularly after the quarterly which the the market sort of had some concerns with. Um the way we look at it is it's a Woodlon is a project in ramp up. I think you got to evaluate it on how it goes in the March quarter but you're right the Kate lens um you know kicks in then uh grades will be good and uh we think that'll sort of lead to a rerating. You've obviously got Sulfur Springs um going through the um uh you know the final stages of um of assessment with the FID probably mid next year. Um if you want to back one guy in resources, I think it's Bill. Um so we're really bullish on the story and um it's now moved into our top five holdings. Um and uh we'll probably uh continue to chip away and add to that. I'm I'm really curious about your comment about it it not being one you kind of hold for for the long term there. Dave, is is that because the assets aren't, you know, first quartile or where do you kind of come from when you say that? >> It's more market sentiment. So, uh what you tend to see is the price can move up um uh above um where we would assess as reasonable value um um just on momentum and um and so often in those situations we'll take some profits and then come back in. the the way we kind of more generally look at how we how we assess companies is we kind of have an investable universe, right? Um and some sometimes we might sell those companies and sometimes we might be buying those companies, but ultimately they've kind of ticked all the boxes as far as something that we want to own and and develop certainly in that box. It's just that sometimes from a valuation perspective it can get overpriced and and as I think we're seeing now sometimes uh it gets oversold and so that's where we want to be able to come in. >> There's um there's a there's a bit of a bit of activity that is is about in the in the copper space like you know there are deals that can be done and and we know that develop is a um you know Bill Bill in particular is a is a guy that does deals creates value with deals. Um, do you think do you think that deals are a big part of the agenda here, a big part of the reason to own the stock? Do you kind of just think that that inevitably they'll be able to to to outmaneuver or find find a way to become, you know, operator and owner of a very worthy copper project that's better than anything in their portfolio right now? >> Look, I think I'd like to think so. Yeah. You know, I think the proposition at the moment is you get Woodlorn up and operating, you get Sulfur Springs up and operating at the levels that they're, you know, at their forecasting along with their services business, which I think will continue to grow. Uh, they're generating a lot of free cash. And then the question is, well, what are they going to do with that free cash? And I think there's a number of probably second tier assets across Australia that could come on the on the radar which they could perhaps manage and and develop better than than others. Um, so so let's see what happens there. But, you know, I think they got a lot on their plate. If they deliver on these assets, they're in really good shape. But it's a, you know, as we've seen with, um, with Northern Star, um, uh, he's not going to sit still for too long. It's a compelling proposition for like even even if the bite size of an asset is um is seemingly you know insurmountable for for developed standalone then then it it must be a compelling proposition to to think of them as a partnering option in some way shape or form to >> to get there because because you can you can pop in underground operator who who um who might be able to deliver operational improvement versus what you know what's in the model from the vendor at that point in time. Well, I I I think you're entirely right. The the other factor is, you know, the the investor base is looking is really crying out for some alternative copper investments and Sandfire's done a incredible job. Um, but it's priced like a global major, right? So, um uh so I think uh you know there's a space that develop can grow into and and build build investor support. Do you um I know you can buy international stocks, but do you do on the ASX, do you own any Mara or any any capstone? If not, why not? >> Uh we own a little bit of Marramaca. Um and I kind of like the project, but again, valuewise, it's you know, it's not compelling. Um we've owned Capstone in the past and uh and similarly um I think there's probably better ways to play it. We we do invest globally as as well. we in in the natural resources fund, we're going to have 25% of the fund in internationals. So, we've owned um we own Anglo, uh we've owned Tech, and we own Ivanho. Um and what I really like about the copper space is really alluding to what we're talking about before. I'm looking to have big positions in the copper groups that have big copper endowments, right? So, it's not just, you know, can they produce copper for 5 years, it's can they produce copper for 20 to 50 years. I think those assets are going to be hugely valuable in the future. I don't think that strategic value is really factored in yet. >> Ivan Hoe's rebounding and um yeah, if you catch the tailwinds of commodity price, then >> yeah, >> you know, yeah, it's it's a compelling thesis. >> Yeah. >> Let's um let's move on to Romelius. They um yeah, they they uh they came out with a five-year plan, JD. >> They did. So, if we if we look back briefly, $700 million in free cash flow. Obviously, there was a a lot of things going right at MA and and the rest of it, but that's what they did in in the year gone. And they came out with a a pretty highly anticipated 5-year plan that would see them sort of go from 200ish,000 ounces per getting up to 500,000 in 5 years time as Rebecca Row comes online. So we saw the numbers for for Rebecca Row which would come on start construction late 27 come online the the year after as well as a early peak into the numbers at never never talking about sort of putting putting the dirt through the Mount Magnet hub there. So it's kind of taking the the shape that we we think the company will will be in 3 to four to 5 years time and beyond. Never never first re reserve came out 1.6 6 million ounces at 7.3 gram. So obviously what they what they paid for there. Also talking about scaling up Mount Magnet to 4.3 million tons on the on the back of just keeping um the Dal Granga plant a bit cold there for for the intram period. So a lot to kind of dig into here. The the market didn't like it. It came on a day when when the goldies were getting sold off, but they got they got a bit beaten up on on the back of this. And yeah, curious to to hear, Dave, how how you were sort of thinking about this one in in the leadup to it, how you sort of judged the the announcement that came out and yeah, any kind of nuggets in there you think people might have glossed over. >> It was interesting, Dave, like like the all of that stuff with Romelius and and uh and Delgaranga Delganga. It's um well, never never that the PFS that they put out, it's underground. What do you know that you need with underground? >> You need support. >> You need ground you need ground support. I didn't even I didn't even have to give you a clue on that one. Who Who provides the best ground support in the industry? Bar none. >> I don't [laughter] know. >> I'll tell you, you don't have to know. >> Sanvic ground support. There is [laughter] only one name you need to know in the ground support industry. Everyone out there in the Australian and the global mining community knows Sanvic ground support are the champions at ground support. >> They don't that's not the only name they need to know. They need to know Derek Herd's name as well, mate. Because you just give Derek Derek a call. Y >> because Sam Vic ground support is the best. >> We did the QAQC. We went out to QAL. We saw all the products being galvanized, being made. We saw the team hard at work, Australianmade servicing the WA industry here specifically and they're in every other corner of the world and we know they're working hard at R&D over in uh just outside of Stockholm as well. So just keeping the mining industry alive. Go Sanvic. >> Go Sanvic. >> Yeah. Um a couple of things. So, I think the quarterly was was a little disappointing um on really around the grade on um on Penny and Q. Uh and I think it got Yeah. Uh it got sold off a bit on that. I think the five-year plan though was probably better than expectations. Um you know, the the challenge that the group has is uh is it's got a couple of flat years until it does the capex, brings never on and and production then ramps up. But you know, you look out to 2030, you got an asset that's or or a business that's going to be generating 500,000 ounces. So ultimately, it's an asset you want to own. It the one thing that se separates Romelius from most companies in the gold sector is is the management and board are very good custodians of cash, right? It's all about generating free cash and doing something sensible with it. And um and I think that's um um that's a really strong thing. If you look at Remis, historically, it hasn't had a mine life to really get rated as a as a major. Um, but I think it's going to have that now. So, the question for me is um is when do you when do you when do you own this? And you probably want to own a little bit now. We don't own it at at this point. Uh, but ultimately, it's going to be um a leader in the sector for a long period of time. There was a punchy comment in there that I saw calling out the oil in sustaining cost would be mostly below 2,000 bucks unlike peers which are closer to $2,800. I had a couple names in mind but we can leave that one there. Trav, what what did you think of the um the five-year plan? >> Uh yeah, like I think I think you're you're you're right in your your analysis of the company and and I love the way they keep themselves accountable by by always, you know, showing shareholders here's what we we paid for for an asset. here's the amount of development capex we put in to bring online and by the way to date here's the free cash flow that asset has generated and then we sold it or or we kept it still producing. Um now there's there's some big things in that portfolio that are kind of yet to pay pay dividends because they're >> they're being developed and that was part of the five-year plan is is obviously Spartan and Rebecca Row on Rebecca Row. So they called they called FID at at um Rebecca Row. Their base case is a $4,500 Aussie dollar gold price. >> That's that's $340 million upfront um capital and that that'll give them a a $692 million post tax MPV. >> So if you chop chop 500 bucks off of that assumed gold price, >> it's a it's a pretty pretty it's not it's pretty ugly MPV. Yeah. Um yes, body is $6,000 an ounce right right now. 12 months ago though it was $4,000 an ounce. So why do I point that out? Um, I think I think in general like the gold miners are like the corporate, you know, the corporates, the BD teams, they're gunshy about about buying things, you know, they don't they don't want to assume a gold price that's too too bullish and then and then overpay for something in the good times. And here you've got Romelius assuming, you know, calling FID >> Yeah. >> on on an internal project based on a $4,500 gold price. Uh, I just think there's some food for thought on that. you know, the the producers, you know, one by one are going to they're going to be lifting their gold price assumptions in their own models. And I think, you know, if it's if it's good if it's a good enough gold price to justify FID on your own kind of projects on capital, then um then it's probably going to be even more compelling >> when you when you run that gold price on the on the nearby bolt-on opportunities or or on developed sort of ounces that can can feed your meal. So, yeah, I'm waiting for that. >> Yeah, I agree. I reckon the dynamics in the go across the gold companies is really interesting because a lot of them have a shitload of cash right um um you know like you're talking hundreds and 500 mil cash or or more you know I think great will have a billion dollars in cash by the end of the year and Rillian's have 700 something like that so so there's cash there but if you look at um you know if you take the recent quarterlys as a group and you and you look at the free cash flow that they've generated um uh the free cash flow yield and you annualize that, right? There's not many if you annualize the quarterly free cash flow um into a yield, there's not many that are yielding over 8% based on the free cash in, you know, in the recent quarter. So, what that means is equity prices have rallied very strongly. Um and so the the value proposition hasn't necessarily improved. So, I think that comes to your point that um what do you do from here? If if you've if you've got script that's essentially factoring in the current gold price and you got a lot of cash, you probably want to be buying stuff. Um particularly if some of those development projects represent good value and I think there are still a few. So, um yeah, >> it's an interesting time. Yeah. >> Yeah. on that on that theme, you know, like it's always it's always interesting comparing Remix with Wesk Merch and Neighbors and the like and >> um and and even, you know, the two companies both put out a well case a five year plan, West Gold's case a three-year plan in the same month. So, and Westold they they I think they brought out on the first of the month. Um they put out a a decent decent quarterly this week. There was, you know, $10 million of cash generation. >> They've they've saw you know outperformed phenomenally the last couple of months. Um I think they doubled in the space of a month at one point there. It was kind of crazy. And they they did rally on the back of their their three-year plan that they put out there, which was interesting. So they they basically, you know, they show this there's a billion dollars of capex that they're going to spend over the next three years there. >> Um stock went up 11% that day. Compare that with Romelius's 5year plan and um you know, they they they sold off. Uh did I how do you how do you evaluate Yeah. West Gold kind of visav Romelius? Yeah, look, I think West Gold um uh there's if they deliver uh they're they're still relatively, you know, if you look at their production versus market cap, um um they're still relatively cheap. So they're they're building credibility. Um so they continue to deliver on their plan. And I think they'll continue to get rerated uh because relatively on their free cash generation looking I think their free cash generation or the free cash yield for financial year 26 is about 12% which you know puts them um among the best. Um so and given that they've also got mine life um you know that what that says to me is they keep they keep doing what they're saying they're going to do um there'll be a rerating there. Yeah, their all in sustaining cost. I think it went up 200 bucks >> per ounce in the quarter just gone. It would have been only about 100 bucks per ounce if if it weren't further or purchase agreement dynamics that play with you. However, um uh do you are you are you are you concerned by kind of cost creep with with with a company like West God who whose assets, you know, their rolled their you know their marginal the temptation is to to to take a bit more at the edges and produce more ounces but costs rise when you when you do that because Yeah. you know. >> Exactly. And and there's always that temptation to do it when the gold price is going up because you think well the margin's still still huge. Um so you're right we're um we like to own lower cost producers across any commodity and and that's the same in gold. U >> we see if the uh the discipline can remain across the kind of board you know the or the the oil and sustaining cost just creeps higher and higher and higher. It's a it's a trend to kind of watch out for. Should we go Grland while we're still talking? I mean, yeah, they're um >> they're they're they're redeeming themselves after after a bit of a a guidance hiccup. Would you say, JD? >> I I I think they are. And like you said, Dave, sort of approaching a billion dollars in cash in in in due kind of course. So, um on the day they they bounced up after after the the quarterly, how do you all take it on board? How do you take on the recovery since that point in time? I think you know that was on the back of the the last quarterly give or take. So 3 months and they have performed super strongly. I think the share price went from low fives to to eight kind of plus with a with a healthy tailwind in in the gold price. But you're a shareholder. How are you kind of thinking about it now? >> Yeah, look we we like it. We still think it's really one of the standouts in the gold sector. um um you know a billion dollars in cash by the end of this year which basically funds the you know the entire transaction that that they did right so um um the expiration work they're doing at at Tela suggests that Tela is going to be operating for a long period of time and Havon is a cracking asset. So we we thought the market overdid the sell down on the back of the um you know the grade in the stockpile um um and we actually bought more when it when it came off um um so we see it as a core gold holding we think it's one of the best value there >> and uh deal with Antipa on the horizon or not >> I don't think so I don't think think they need it right so um and certainly at the at the valuation of Antipra you know I don't think they'll be they'll be going there soon but But we'll see. >> One to watch. >> Yeah. >> Why don't we wrap through a couple more quarterlys? >> Line town's one of the ones that comes top of my mind. So I I'll give a bit of a synopsis quickly. The the Orton tons their mind that kind of beat expectations and then you had realized pricing was perhaps a bit weaker than expectations. >> The the open pit is coming to the end of its time and more and more of the tons are coming from underground. You've got Pasteville, the biggest kind of paste plant in in the state churning over. But they got beaten up on the back of these results. So they were down 13%. It was a it was a pretty bad day. Perhaps a couple questions about recoveries. Like there was a you know variability in the ore this quarter just gone and that was partially expected but recoveries were below 60%. Company kind of maintains its its 70% recovery target for for the longer term. Balance sheet looking a lot healthier because they did a big big raise in in the quarter just gone. and they kind of amended the the Ford facility as well to buy themselves more time on on that front. Yeah. Curious to hear how you kind of weigh up whether you're in the kind of camp of like things are improving and they're getting closer or you're in the the other side of that that debate and thinking they're going to be a high cost producer. >> Look, the way I look at Lintown is, you know, I think Tony has done an incredible job of controlling the controllable, right? So from an operations perspective, I don't think you could have asked this project to commission and come on stream and and start production any better than it could have. So to me, the issue with Lintown is one um the the spot price is low, right? And and cost of production even for Lintown, which I think will emerge as a pretty cost effective producer, but it's it's way above where you know where they're selling their their spamine for. So, so you got a business that in the medium term is going to lose money. Um, and it doesn't have a strong balance sheet, so it's got net debt. Notwithstanding, it's it's pushed out the the Ford facility, which I think was the right thing to do. But it just means there's pressure there. So, um, I think it will come through one way or another. Whether it has to raise more equity down the track, who really knows? It will come down to how quickly spot prices recover. I think it will end up being a really high quality producer at relatively low cost. Um but um but the key driver will be just what happens at the at the commodity level. >> What do you make of the the the share price? Looks like tripled in in short order. You know that's um and and they're not the only lithium producer. >> Yeah, exactly. I mean Pilra is the same. You kind of go um um you know the economics don't kind of stack up, right? So the market is saying arguably you'd say Ltown and and Pilra are priced as if Spodamine is at you know 13-500 um a ton um and it's [snorts] 800 so there's a bit built in there right um now Pilra is probably the go-to um easy way to play lithium so I can kind of understand it from from a from that perspective and I think Linetown is probably a credit to the way they've gone about doing what they do that that people um will also see that as a go-to in in the lithium space. But ultimately, when the commodity price is below your cost of production, right, um you got to be cautious as an investor. >> Speaking of commodity price below the cost of production, >> I don't know if it's reported that way, but when cash goes down quote quarter, Boss Energy, they um they reported this this today as we're recording. >> JD, what do you think of the quarterly? Well, good day to to report to be a uranium company on the back of an $80 billion government deal in in the States. So, I think when I looked the stock was up 17% 16% there. They're flying. Um, one of the things like we we noticed kind of straight away is they're not just reporting what the cash position is. We know they've got inventories, but cash, inventories, investments, and receivables. It sort of feels like it's getting a bit long in the tooth there when you add in every every kind of column. >> Receivables but not payables, mate. That's [laughter] well that would that would make it look bad. But on an operation side, you've got column 4 commissioning. You've got new wellfields being brought online. One of the details I kind of noticed is that the PLS exenner kind of dipped. So it went from 88 to to 81 >> in in the most recent quarter, which is kind of interesting with new wellfields coming online there. >> Um yeah, drummed production was was up a bit, but um yeah, ex production was down 20,000 tons. So we're talking figures just below 400,000 odd tons there. And I think most importantly what people are laser focused on is that workers started drilling has started properly delineating resources at the kind of contentious if you like uh pro uh deposits they've got out there at east kind of karoo and others and you've got the honeymoon review to this quarter. So the December quarter >> and that is what a lot of people affixiated on when when they came out with that announcement. the stock just about h haveved on on the back of this. So, uh, positives and negatives there. How are you kind of weighing it? How do you how do you think about this and the the the restart projects more broadly and the uranium landscape on the ASX, Dave? >> Yeah, I don't think we've owned an ASX listed uranium stock. Um uh and the problem I see is this is that there's you know in Australia in particular but globally there's not many um uranium stocks of any size or scale. Um and um as interest in the sector has increased you've had a lot of money flowing in and and prices and valuations have been pushed up. So um I just don't see the value proposition for a lot of these companies because basically they're they're relatively small scale. they're relatively high cost. Um and until you get higher uh uranium prices um um you know it's just not a compelling value proposition. So um you know it's a bit like the discussion we're just having that you need this you need the the commodity price to be at higher levels to kind of gain some interest. But I think there's better value in, you know, in a in a NextG or um or some of the developers or or Dennis um uh in Canada and um uh and some of the the the emerging developers out of Canada. >> Do you have like a rule of thumb or a way of thinking about restart projects in general? Are you pretty open-minded when it when it kind of comes to it? >> Um I think you got to be careful depending on the type of project, but um you know, boss is a good example of of of what can go wrong. So, you just need to be you need to be really careful and you don't want to be paying a premium for them as if it's all going to go right. I think you got to assume there's going to be ramp up. There's going to be a few hurdles along the way. Um >> yeah, I I think um I think I think trying to figure out uh are things going to get better from here or or they get worse before they get better for boss. And uh all the answer to that question kind of lies in in the geology of these kgaroo. this they're still producing. I mean um you know uranium right now is is still >> dominantly coming from from honeymoon where where grades are much much much higher than than east calar in fact >> between two and three times higher in the you know in the early kind of uh yeah resource resource models that were well resource statements that were put to market. So yeah, so the the extent that these KG group can string together and you can and you can economically extract, you know, much lower grade there and they have to put put in more more wells to to do all of that, reagents involved and everything. Like >> what uranium price does it take for that to make positive cash flow? Because that might it might be an inconceivable uranium price when when the honeymoon resources all gone? And if that's the case, then >> then things get worse before they get better. Well, I I think you're right. You know, the the issue the issue that I had with the sector is um it wasn't pricing for the risk, right? So, um and obviously boss has come come back from it its peak and and it's getting a bit closer, but um if I'm after you, the way I often look at it is once you've made a call on the commodity, I think uranium outlook is really good, then the last thing you want to do is make a a poor stock call, right? So your first protocol is to look at the high quality uh producers or developers and say um um are they that much more expensive than the second tier that you know that I should be bypassing them. And I think in uranium there's there's been better opportunities um than um than some of these local ones. Yeah, >> I think that's well said. Dave, should we jump into some grade control? >> Indeed. You know what we do here, Dave? Great great things. A to F. >> Yeah. [laughter] So we're talking corporate moves, government policy. We've got a few of of the above here and yeah, we can just sort of rotate through them fairly quickly. Let's start with Lovato, Trav. >> Yes, mate. So Lovato, they uh they came out uh early in the week effectively saying that they've they've rejected the uh the the non-binding offer put, you know, given to them by US Antimony Corp. Um now US antimony court proposed to to an all script transaction after you know basically buying a bunch of love auto shares on market the week prior up till the Friday um at a you know at a merger ratio that you know was probably probably marginally marginally higher than the highest price that they paid at the point at which they announced it. Now Lovato's um yeah like shares upon upon revelation of of this have obviously shot up and and USMY Corp as you'd expect have uh have come down a fair bit. Lovato's rejected the bid >> and it looks like we're we're in for, you know, an entertaining way that things play out. Underpinning all of this is US Antimony Corp's need to to backfill um supply. They've got, you know, they've got a pretty hefty contract to to to deliver antimony from the US government and um and they're they're keen to to source that from all all parts of the globe. Uh in in Lavado's case, they actually entered an an offtake with with WAN. I think it was I think it was last year late last year >> but from the from the bit of detail we can actually see about that wage off take it looks like Lavado still has some ability to influence where the final destination of of the product is even though wan has kind of marketing rights so usn must have taken the view that they can actually still influence the final destination and that is that is the proposition of why lava is a uh a takeover target what have you made of this one Dave >> yeah look I think it comes down to time and money doesn't it. So, um, so I think Lovato have done the right thing. They've said, um, you know, they batted them away and they know that, you know, US and Tiny are committed, right? They're a shareholder and and they they, you know, they need the asset. So, I think from a rating, I'd give them a B. Um, they're doing what they you'd expect them to do, but ultimately, you'd expect a deal be done. Um, a price will be set and um and it'll happen. Yeah. trading trading um substantially above the the terms of the initial offer right now. So the market's pricing in the fact that that an uplift is is on its way and yeah given that the the somewhat host hostile nature of the the uh yeah the the buying the the stake and and uh and announcing it and the likes. Yeah, wouldn't wouldn't be surprised to to see see an uplift here and an eventual deal. But the shareholders might be hard to keep happy. Dave, I've noticed this about the antimin shareholders. They >> they are um yeah, I don't know what price will be the right price for them. So, there might be a bit of work to get them on side for for a deal TBD, but I give this I give it a B. Like, >> uh yeah, I mean, >> love paid sweet stuff all for this asset and in no time it is >> um they're cop, >> you know, a very credible deal worth, you know, hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars. It's um it's remarkable. I'll give it an A. >> A A for entertainment. I think >> A because like you guys sort of alluded to and kind of said there, they um >> you know, the counterpart is trying to backfill value. So, they're getting paid in shares. You want to make sure they're pretty pretty well kind of priced and they're just doing the the right thing by their shareholders. And yeah, that uh aggressive buying on on market was interesting to to say the least from USAC. So keen to see where where this one goes and how Lavoto can kind of maximize value and cement value for for their shareholders. >> Yeah. >> Next one is uh a lithium related story. So we're going to talk about Lintown and we're going to talk about Pilra here. So the context is the price flaws that we've spoken a fair bit about in a variety of critical minerals. So you had Dale Henderson obviously who runs um PLS being quizzed as well as Tony Oviano and yeah they're talking about the $1.2 billion strategic reserve and what a kind of price floor in the the lithium world would look like and the implications that would come off the back of that. So I think Dale handled this pretty pretty deafly and very kind of diplomatically. He was sort of saying things to the tune of if deployed in the right way these could be positive but equally there could be bad unintended consequences. The concern people have in this regard is that the Ron projects get supported. And I think, you know, the people being concerned there is is Dale. And I think he's, you know, that that is the most um pressing way you're going to get Dale to say it's a pretty stupid idea. He's never going to come out and say it just like that. And then similar words from Tony, although he kind of caged it, saying, "We're happy with the National Reconstruction Fund and the way that that invests, we just don't want price flaws," which is, you know, uh I I I I don't know how you can hold both those two views in your head at the same time, unless somebody's just bought into your capital raise a few months ago and you you want to kind of say it that way. On that point, our taxpayer money is now up 40 odd% since the capital raise. [clears throat] So, I am all for the fund cashing out that they've done it. Take it off the table. That's a fantastic win in the space of a few weeks. And to to wrap a kind of grade around all of this, I I would give it an A again and just kind of be generous because I like the public talking down of price flaws. I think the bad and unintended consequences are very real and they can distort the market. Dave, what do you think? >> Yeah, look, I I think you're right. I'd give them an A or a B. Um and for similar reasons you know I think when when governments start to get involved in business often it doesn't end well and um you know uh I think we've talked before you know governments as allocators of capital um I'm not sure you want to be uh dependent on on that and have an industry built around that. Um and again as I think you guys have talked numerous times through your you know through your through your previous episodes. What I'd like to see governments focus on is is delivering cheaper energy, delivering um you know a greater volume of skilled work workers and uh and faster approvals. And any distraction from that is a distraction, right? If they do that, they get those three things right, the mining industry in Australia will boom. And uh it's all very well to talk about stock piles and and uh floor prices and all that, but um you know, they're they're around the periphery. The key is deal with the fundamentals first. >> I I should just add in quickly before you jump in, Trav, that Dale did talk up shared infrastructure as well to your point there. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. The infrastructure is the the lowhanging fruit. >> Yeah. >> And and energy is even lower hanging fruit really. Like that's that's a political will thing. >> Yeah. >> Um >> Yeah. like we like we are not competitive like uh you know on on in a variety of different areas unless we were blessed geologically by um by having you know the world's best iron ore um this is this is not a competitive place to to produce from an opex perspective and you know things need to be done about that there's there's some easy things to do uh glad glad we don't have any price flaws I I would have um >> yeah maybe sought citizenship somewhere else if we if we if we went there but um anyway I I won't hold my breath We might get that in other commodities. >> Well, and maybe on rare earths, it's one where where something in place makes more sense than most commodities, but uh but we'll see. Yeah. >> Yeah. I I I think in the lithium case specifically, it's it's not one that makes sense. I think we're we're kind of in agreeance there. Just it's it's a different kind of >> ball game there. >> Let's jump into Sweet and Sour deal. We can run through a bunch of these. We've got capital raisings. We've got deals and and sales. We've got governmentish uh support being lent as well. Trev, you picked upon Alba selling their catalyst business um earlier this week. >> So they agreed to sell controlling stake in uh Ketchin Corps refining catalyst solutions business to KPS capital partners and it's 50% interest in uh Uricat joint venture to Axen's SA. So generating together about US $660 million in proceeds. Uh yeah, so this is sweet deal. I take is um Albal they they have the worst balance sheet in the sector like it is >> number one Alba number two album number three album for most like the worst balance sheet um and and and that's been an an own goal of of their their own like would they would they have sold these if they didn't have to I don't know like I like I don't actually know the quality of these businesses um but I do know how bad their balance sheet is and I guess they might not have sold them if their balance sheet were in the situation it is. So, I think it's a sour deal, but their hand is forced and um and that's their own, you know, they got their own gibberish to blame for that. >> Yeah, I I agree. Um and again, I don't know the catalyst um asset that well, but you'd suggest the only reason they're selling it is because um because of the debt pressures they've got. >> Yeah. Sour on long-term thinking. Coronado. So they announced a um an arrangement with Stanwall who is a kind of Queensland government arm talking about US $265 million in debt being provided, rebate fees being waved, prepayments being a possibility of cash dips below a certain level. All that is to say Coronado is in a world of pain. Coal prices are in the gutter and they are, you know, looking under every every couch and in every kind of corner for for spare cash to to keep them alive. The more interesting point here is that it is the government of of sorts that is you know bailing them out in a sense because they are a buyer of this product. So Queensland partly to to blame their their energy policy for the fact that they have to do this as as a government and write a check to a a coal producer. So I think it's a yeah from from that perspective that's how I'm going to look at it. I'm going to call it a a sour deal, but you can sort of slice and dice this one in a few different ways. Have you got thoughts on it? >> Yeah, I think it's sour for a number of different reasons. I think from a Coronado perspective, um they've probably um having a major shareholder that didn't want to be diluted means that uh they've got too much debt um at a time when the commodity price is is is low. So that puts them under a whole lot of pressure um and and hence they had to do this deal. I think it's also sour because basically what you had was a company operating in Queensland where you had a change in the royalty uh regime uh which really crunched them and leaves them exposed when the commodity price is low and that's forced them to um to agree to this this deal um which uh which really takes out the upside. you know, a lot of people were looking at Coronado because the roll off of the Stanmore um payments, you know, was was 27 and uh and that that you know that that uptick was something like 130 million bucks a year, right? Which really underpins the value of the business. So they've had to give away a lot. Um so I think for a whole lot of reasons it's sour. What's the what's the the the name of the collie call business that uh is distressed and the government just props it up every year writing more and more. Anyway, I feel like it's just going that way. You know, it's it's not good for equity, but like this thing's it just becomes pseudo nationalized because you need the power. >> Yeah. >> I can Yeah. Equity doesn't win. But >> Amazing how quick things can turn though. >> Like two years ago, this is a a $2 stock. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah, Perpetual. >> Oh, this NASDAQ listed Perpetual Resources. They announced a US $255 million strategic equity investment from Agneo Eagle who chipped in 180 of that. Um, which gave them a 6.5% stake. They got warrants there, too. Plus, you see JP Morgan's sexy new security fund. >> Uh, so 75 million from there is is is is part of this raise. Those two parties, both of them got juicy warrants along with it. And then the next day, uh, Perpetual Ris 78 million more to a broader audience, um, at a at a dollar a dollar higher per per share than the initial deal. Perpetual's key assets gold project in central Idaho supposed to produce both gold and antimony, hence the critical minerals angle here, Dave, sweet deals, our deal. >> Um, again, I don't I don't know the intricacies of it all that much, but I'd have to say it's a sweet deal in that um, you get AgO involved. Um um then uh I think you're doing well. >> I I say sweet deal for Perpetual. I mean they locked in strategic capital first and raised more on better terms. Um >> can I say s deal for Agniko? >> There's not enough upside in it for him. Yeah. >> Ag they're they're they're a classy minor and they've got Yeah. Like I can't I can't in all reality critique their their um capital allocation. That's um that would be [clears throat] absurd. But I don't I don't really understand a lot of their uh strategic stakes in a lot of different companies. And they've got 90 of them, believe it or not. 90 minority stakes in um in Yeah. Like in other companies. >> Yeah. >> Uh so I do understand most of the gold ones, but I don't understand the non- gold ones that they've got. Like a lot of their base metals allocation have been d like dubious or curious to me. And then the the this one um yeah like the it's Agneo and they're they're they're kind of you know doing the Trump pump kind of thing like I don't know hiko I'm a podcaster but I just think I just think for Aging >> very interesting one I like the um the JP Morgan security fund you mentioned I think it's called like the America first fund or something >> that kind of cracks me up. Yeah I'm perpetual. I think it's a sweet deal. You got to take the money whilst you can whilst you can get it. And this is the environment to to take it on board. Really really kind of fascinating from a um from an agono perspective. >> You mentioned the 90 other stakes they've got. Most of them are a lot smaller than than this one. This is a >> a fair bite size for them to take. So yeah, I I wonder if there's a a kind of you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours and they get something kind of decent in America or something becomes a bit easier for them for for getting this stite gold project off the ground. So we'll see about that one. Another one with government involvement. >> Oh mate, >> Arafura, >> the uh the the big the the big capital of the world all in this one deal, mate. So Arafur raised $475 million in a two placement at uh 28 cents per share 25% discount to last Hancock Gina giving in 125 million of that um and that'll bring her stake to to about 16%. Now, Arafura, they say that the proceeds of this race um together with the 50 million SP that they're also uh doing will complete the public equity component of their Nolan's rare earth project in the middle of Australia. FID on Nolan is expected early next year and Hatch is the preferred EPCM of that. I'll give my take first. This is not the final public equity component of Nolan's sour deal. Happy for aura shareholders who've had a had a win in recent months, but um it's our deal. >> Yeah. >> Dave, who who are you going to rate here and and how are you going to rate them? >> Well, I think if you're rating Arafura, it's a sweet deal. Um because they're capitalizing on the market and um and the interest in rarest space and the fact that Gina's um you know, really underpinning the the raise. Um I think Gina has a longer term um time frame and assessment period than uh than a lot of investors. So um but but I think from a value proposition as an as a as a investor coming in I think you got to be cautious because I think there's two things that rare earth projects like this the hard rock ones in particular need. One is capital and the other is expertise and if you look at Linus as an example it took them 20 years to uh to get them out weld and processing activities up and running. So I think there's risk in the sector because it's difficult. Um, so I think um, our review have done the right thing. They've they've grabbed the cash while it's been available. So, so good on them. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Sim similar to how you think about it, Dave, I'm I'm very cautious about the rare earths world. And >> yeah, for that reason, I haven't partaken in the >> in the 10xing of multiples of these these stocks around there. >> And I think, you know, once we get to that point in time, FOD Construction, uh, we'll really see what Arafur and Nolan is is all about. But >> why the rumors sell the news on on the uh on the rare earth stocks the last few weeks. Have you noticed that? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Very much so. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. So, I think you gota like like we sort of said, would I have tipped into that capital raising? Probably not. But what what do I kind of know about it? I I think it is interesting from that perspective and also the evolution of of Gina as the um yeah the the kind of dominant shareholder in in a whole bunch of rare earth names like that is not something I would have forecasted a few years ago and she like you sort of rightly say that these aren't the biggest checks in the world for her. you can think long term about these things and very curious to see where where that kind of evolving um dynamic goes and and what she might look at next you know because it started started with kind of lithium now rare earths where where does that kind of portfolio grow to >> but that's actually an interesting point on like there there are limited like sources of of capital they're willing to write big checks which are necessary to progress projects um you know and you have to have a long-term time horizon. We're blessed that our mining industry has created a number of of billionaires who who and some of them uh are willing to write checks like that. So Gina's capital is tremendously important to the to the um you know the future prosperity of of of the industry but the conditions for that capital need need to be appropriate for for her to be even that more interested in um in investing in Australia. I do know that that like you know you look at some of the numbers of the the US investment she's made lately just uh yeah Trump trumps a lot of the the the capital we're talking about in in some of these positions. would love to know what she thinks of all this government involvement. [laughter] You know, it's awfully close to it. I >> think you can research some of some of her thoughts on government involvement >> as it pertains to to some issues. Definitely. >> Yeah. >> All right. Medallion and Aerys to to wrap things up. Tra, do you want to kick us off with Medallion? Medallion uh secured an exclusive agreement with Trafy for up to US $50 million funding uh via senior secured prepayment facility and a 7-year copper and gold offtake for its Ravens Thorp Gold project and Forestania operations. My take don't have all the details yet so we can't we can't like you know be be precise in in giving it a sweet deal sour deal but I go go out on a limb and call it a sweet deal anyway. the um just the quantum the counterparty kind it just reminded me of the AIC uh 50 million trafficy you know facility as well these you know and what is that like what's the common theme here um you miners and developers who are able to fund their their growth without as much equity dilution and on okay terms because smelters everywhere are desperate for concentrate traffic ura included yes they make money on the marketing yes there'll be hooks in in the offtake but but the this is a point in time where it was miner can actually get some of that upside yourself and and uh and avoid the dilution and maybe it's actually more attractive capital than um project finance. So, good deal. Sweet deal. >> Yeah. Yeah. Look, I I I agree with you. I think it's a sweet deal. Obviously, we don't know all the terms and conditions attached, but I think you're right. Um it's better than further equity dilution and it's probably less ownorous than a than a debt facility. So, makes sense. >> Agreed. The the the capital landscape right now is pretty competitive. So hopefully that the terms are quite good and um on the back of that sweet deal as well. >> Last one to wrap it up. Uh Aries launched an $85 million capital raise price at45 cents a share 13% discount. So and what are they using the funds for to repay debt owed by major shareholder Soul Pats. Um so Soul Pats I think they own 31ish% of the stock but that you know also um also a big lender and Soul Pats. Yeah. Uh how did how did all of that happen? Well, they they sold them the round oak assets and um yeah, so so I'm I'm giving this a sweet deal. Check out the chart of AIS on the on the focus chart by market tech that we're we're putting up right now. And um like the fact that Aries is a $500 million company just crept up on me. >> Yeah, it's it's a it's a um and and here we are. It is >> raise 100 million while you can and get, you know, improve your balance sheet. Like absolutely sweet deal. Yeah, I I I tend to agree. So, um raise the money while you can. And uh I mean I think it's um it's been a bit of an underperformer. Um um but um strengthening your balance sheet this time of cycle makes sense. >> It'd be absolutely mad not to take that money at that at that chair price. All right, guys. Let's wrap up with some hidden gems. Trav, kick us off. What's uh what's capturing your attention? >> My hidden gem, mate, it's AGM season. uh you you like if you don't get stuff mailed to you then the announcements of the stocks you own you'll see this thing there called a notice of AGM open that up and on there it has the the meeting location and and the time and date of the AGM of the stocks that you own and my one my one like yeah suggestion to to uh to listeners out there go to an AGM this this year just just pick just pick one of them maybe your favorite stock or maybe a stock that you just like um you think there'll be some some something worth attending like just go to an AGM you will learn a hell of a lot more than reading any announcement they put out and you have access to the board which which is usually kind of pretty tricky to to to access for a lot of these stocks. Uh massively underrated. >> Dave, what have you got, mate? >> So um so my hidden gem is is holidays. So, I've just come back from holidays uh in Laos uh at a at a at a town called Luang Prabang. Um which is on the Mikong River uh beautiful spot. Uh now is the time of year to go between now and December, otherwise it gets uh a bit hot and steamy. Um but a fascinating country. It about 7 million people. Uh it's the most bombed country in history. Um uh it's on the Mikong River which is beautiful. Um most of the population are Buddhist and um uh and also the the government is is communist. So it's kind of got something for everyone. >> That is that is fascinating. You you fly via via Thailand to get there or >> so you can you can actually fly directly into the capital which is Ventan from Perth which is interesting. Um or alternatively you go through through Thailand and then >> direct flight very very appealing. I like it. I will wrap up with um my my hidden gem. It is a record player. So, I've become a snob that that listens to records now. Total snob. And >> I bought one when I lived in Melbourne, too. >> Yeah. It it just happens [laughter] to you when you go over there. And I think it's a a sort of fantastic thing just to to chuck on a record, listen to the the whole thing through, you know, gets you, you know, you can you can just enjoy a piece of piece of work for 30, 40, 50, 50 minutes and and feel the uh the flow through a whole album as opposed to just a song. So if you if you want to be a snob, get a record player. >> There we go. Thanks a bunch for joining us, Dave. That was fantastic to cover so many topics with you. Much appreciated. >> Yeah, my pleasure. Good good to be here again. It's great to great to talk about the stocks that we love, Dave. And um great to see yeah the natural resource fund, you know, going from strength to strength. So, congrats to you and um >> and great to see the Sanvic Ground Support business just supporting the whole industry and the uh the charts right behind Dave's head. You can see there brought to you by Focus, the platform that Market Tech does. Check him out. >> Hero. Cheers. >> Now, remember, I'm an idiot. JD is an idiot. If you thought any of this was anything other than entertainment, you're an idiot and you need to read our disclaimer.
Smart Money is Buying-the-Dip in Copper and Gold
Summary
Transcript
copper in our fund. It's our biggest single commodity exposure. It's about 30% of the funds. We're very bullish on the outlook there. >> It feels like a buy the dip kind of moment for a lot of people out there, >> but I don't understand the non- gold ones that they've got. >> All righty, Dave Franklin, fourth time on the show. We're thrilled to have you back. Thanks for joining us again. >> No, thank you JD and and Trav. Good to be back and um um looking forward to the chat. >> Exhausted or refreshed given the market? Uh uh a bit of both really. You know, I think there's always um uh there's always things keep you interested, isn't there? So u and always value opportunities. So >> we've got no shortage of things to talk about today. So we're going to kick things off talking a bit of macro. We're going to run through all the commodities, uranium, copper, >> gold, precious more broadly. And then >> we've got a bunch of cordly to jump through as well. So we're going to jump through the the highlights and the low lightss. And then US Antimony Corp. What else? >> Don't forget the deals, mate. Big raises. rare earth financ's up and about, mate. Shareholders are interested. People are buying stocks again. Um maybe not the best stocks all of the time, but you know what? Retail is back and it kind of makes me happy when retail's around. I'm sure it makes a difference to to institutional investors as well, Dave, because you need you need retail flow to um to get a liquidity rerate if you play at the lower end of the curve. >> I I think you're right. I think last time I was on I was talking about being an institutional investor. You go through periods where you're just trying not to lose money and then you're going through periods where you you're making money and um and we're very much in that phase now where you know we're making money in the fund and investors are making money and retail investors are coming in and it all looks good. So um let's hope it uh continues on >> long may it continue. All right guys let's kick off with uranium talk. So big deal overnight between the US government and also involving Westinghouse Electric, Camo and Brookfield. So Camo is up 25% on this one. Essentially we're we're talking about Trump's push for for energy dominance. The the headline is an $80 million $80 billion rather price tag that's going to be written. Japan is going to get involved as well and they are building reactors in the States again. So there's there's a few financials, but the the details are still relatively light on, but it's, you know, it's about sentiment. It's about things happening. It's about Japan getting involved. It's in the leadup of Trump going to speak with Xi and potentially another big trade deal. So there's lots in in the works here. And it comes at a very interesting time because the US hasn't built a big reactor in a a long time. Bogle was the last one they built and that blew out by two and a half times, cost $35 billion. So leaves a bit to be desired there. But reactors are a very very big ticket item. They cost a lot of money. So you kind of need the government to get involved to to hold the hands of the likes of Brookfield and other massive >> capital allocators. But when you sort of hear this hit the wires, what's your kind of first thoughts on this one, Dave? >> Yeah, look, I reckon it's um it's it's a very significant announcement because if you look at the uranium sector, the thing that it's lacked is urgency, right? You've had chemicals out of prom sort of plotting along. You've had the utilities under no real rush to sign up deals. Um while everyone's talking about building new new reactors, they take a long time and cost a lot of money. And I think this changes it. Just says, "Okay, the US is saying we're serious about um nuclear power and we're going to get on and do it." So I think it's um uh you know one of the most significant announcements uh that that um has come out in the sector you know in recent times. >> Huge. Yeah. Huge. The um you know what I found really interesting though about it was like $80 billion $80 billion fund. >> Just a tiny detail $80 billion to be to be allocated to build out these new reactors. The only thing missing in the release was how many reactors is that? How many reactors going to build out that um 80 billion? >> Uh >> I guess it comes to the the size of the reactor, right? But um it's probably something like you know 8 or 10. I would have thought estimated eight but you know yeah anyway so there's a bit to play out here >> with with the Japanese they start talking about helping out with SMRs and these sorts of things which is obviously a much much smaller ticket. So >> we'll kind of see but yeah keen keen to see a lot of numbers and I think you know you >> you get to a point in time 80 billion and above and the the numbers start to to not mean an awful lot there such big numbers. They were talking [clears throat] at the same time about the Japanese coming in investing 300 plus billion dollars in the states in various infrastructure projects, not just uranium. But yeah, it's it's a vast amount of money that needs to be spent and >> the the big tech companies are keen to get involved and do their thing as well. We saw Google come out with a deal earlier this week because the kick up in energy demand. They need the the demand for the data centers. super super encouraging to see the you know the the urgency of of trying to you know create energy abundance in in in all forms. Um, you know, I think that policy is a very wise one. There's a bit to play out, long timelines associated with it all. Some stage the question is going to certainly need to be asked, you know, where is all the uranium going to come from, right? Um, and I I wonder I wonder if if this is the announcement that comes before we're actually going to get another announcement, and that is a strategic uranium reserve announcement. What do you think of that, Dave? Yeah, look, I don't think there's a shortage of uranium when the when the, you know, it's kind of economics wins, right? So, so when the price is high enough to incentivize and you've got government support, um, then I think it'll happen. So, um, I don't, you know, and obviously Australia has a big, uh, a big resource. Uh, Canada has a huge resource. It's just a matter of getting on and and doing it. And I think, um, what this shows is demand is building and that's good for pricing. So um um yeah, I think it's it's heading in the right direction. >> So we we'd kicked about the idea of these types of groups, Brookfield type names getting involved in the um in the nuclear space in the past and I want to go one step further. Can you see a world in which they would get involved at a a project level in some shape or form just to um yeah just seeing the the opportunity there and the the economics of a project for a commodity where the demand you can map out a bit better than you can with with other commodities. >> Yeah. Well well um I think you're right. You know really uh they're big ticket um projects whether it's building a reactor or whether it's uh developing a mine. And so you need people that have and groups that have, you know, long-term horizons. So the Brookfields of the world are well placed for that and and governments are well placed for that. Um, so I think you're right, you know, I think you'll see capital allocated to that sector. It's it's moving into the mainstream. For a long time, it's been on the edge, but I think this really creates the momentum to um to have money directed at it. the the infrastructure funds of the world. They they need, you know, very very long uh long-term, you know, contracts at a at a at a price that, you know, is is um to some degree inflation resistant and and fixed. And, you know, uranium supplying a reactor, it fits the mold of an infrastructure like cash flow dynamic that you can have this the certainty of of of [snorts] price on on FID of these these reactors. I yeah I think I think the application of that financing dynamic into into the mining world is um it's cool like when you last read the big score what was the the what was the the relevance where where Brookfield consortium or the previous incarnation of Brookfield was involved in in some way shape or form in the nickel market. Oh, you're testing my memory here. But it was it was the previous incarnation of the Canadian group that um ultimately became Brookfield >> that got involved and they tried to they tried to partner up with with other groups and and do a deal for for American Diamond Fields. >> Yeah. So, it's it's that like and it's that analogy that um I know you've held NextGen in the past, Dave. Don't know if you've still got it as a core portfolio position. Um but >> the strategic value of arrow like you know >> it it it only goes up in this in this sort of world, right? Well, totally. Um, you know, really what uh there's not many um uh large long-term, you know, high high um high production assets out there. Arrow is one. Um you know, Dennis and uh slightly different style of asset, but uh but that's coming on. But they're both, you know, they're they're both um uh nearing their final approvals. So So you're seeing some major projects um coming forward. Uh and there's a few few others. We own um ISO Energy which is actually 30% owned by NextGen that has a cracking uh deposit in uh in the Aabaska called um Hurricane which um which also looks really interesting. So >> recently merged with Toro >> uh so takeover so it's much bigger than Toro but again that's that's an interesting angle where they're saying >> um we've got great assets in other parts of the world but let's put our foot on some decent scale early earlier stage development assets in Australia which I think is a um an indication that um how they see the geopolitical situation changing in Australia towards >> very keen to see how it changes and the the landscape shape and the the permitting changes here in in our state and in our country more more broadly. Why don't we move on to to gold guys? Been a super volatile time. >> If we zoom out far enough, Dave, since you last came on and since you first came on, it's just been a one-way street. But try telling that to people and it's come off 10% in the last week or so. But >> if you if you look at the average price, like we spoke about before for 2025, still $3,200 and we're sitting at 4,000 bucks right now. Jumping over to silver just quickly. That's also down by a similar margin, maybe a bit more. It's got that kind of talk to it from 55 to to 47. >> Yeah. >> Odd bucks. But there seems to me I'm curious to to just sort of gauge the sentiment with you first. It feels like a bit buy the dip kind of moment for a lot of people out there. A lot of people that have cash around are sitting pretty happy because some of these stocks have peeled off 20 plus% in in the last week or so. Is that am I picking up on the the same sentiment that you are there? >> Yeah, I think so. Yeah, I mean I I think there's a number of factors there as you alluded. I mean gold prices had a huge run and you know between I think the 20th of August and the 20th of October, two months, uh the US gold price rose by $1,000 um 30%. That's crazy, right? Which is incredible. And now it's pulled back 10% and you're right, people are going um you know we're worried here. So um so I think that you know the tailwinds for gold that we all talk about you know debasement of US uh dollar um you know geopolitical risk interest rates coming down etc you know they're all still in place so you got to be bullish on gold but having said that um the the the the rapid rise in the gold price was was accompanied by the even more rapid rise in gold equity prices. So um um so there is a bit of a you know a consolidation that I think needed to happen. Um so um you know so we we we think that you could see uh a bit more consolidation a bit of a a stabilization um but ultimately I think you want to have gold in your portfolio. A sustainable rally is not when price just goes, you know, vertical that that that you do want it to be >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Have periods of having a breather and >> Yeah. >> back up again. >> I I think the other fact what's interesting is you know what's driven gold price particularly recently and what you've seen is a lot of buying in ETFs, gold physical ETFs out of the US, right? And uh and historically that's been pretty fickle, right? So the last time you saw that was co where it was really panic driven. This time I think there's there's a bit of panic. You know the on one side there's people that are worried about what's happening in the world but on the other side I think you got people jumping into gold because they think they've missed it right. So um so there's kind of the a combination of of fear on one side and um and greed on the other right that's been driving it. And just as uh ju just as that happened you know you get a pullback. So momentum wise, you might just uh need a bit of a a settling down period. But but um yeah. >> Well, we I don't think we've actually spoken about it on on the show yet, but the lines at the Perth Mint at the ABC refinery in in Sydney, people >> queuing up for five, six hours to buy a small bar bar of gold that like >> Yeah. >> I find that I didn't have that on the on the on the bingo card for this year. It's funny how you get the, you know, the physical ability to see the interest in some ways, but but it's just, it's just a physical manifestation of more more volume. You know what I mean? Like that's like Yeah. When you get more more market depth on it on the screen, that's the same thing. More more people wanting to buy and >> Yeah. >> and and at a higher price, more people wanting to sell. >> Yeah. Yeah. So on the flip side to that, the the central bank action as you mentioned is quite interesting Dave and we've seen huge central bank buying from the likes of Poland, Turkey, China, these these sorts of countries >> and we are starting to see a couple more countries talk about this. I think Korea mentioned in the past week or so that they would look at adding adding gold to their um their reserves. Gold as an asset class, you you shared a great chart the other day, Trav. Gold as an asset class for central bank holdings is now just shy of of US dollars and they have been sort of converging. It's outstripped uh yen, euro, all these other things. It's a combination obviously of the buying as well as the the increase in price and the overall value of it going up. But they, you know, we like to think they don't operate the same way as retail investors. They're not. They get orders to execute and they just go at it until they're kind of done. That that that's the kind of common wisdom of of how they do it. >> I feel like that's like a a fraught analogy of you know the masters of our um currency not thinking like retail investors. The central bank international central bank community is full of group think. They all do the same thing at the same time. They they you know like I think I don't think you have original thoughts. They copy each other and when they all do something they all do something at the same time. So >> couldn't couldn't agree more. I think more in the execution of of of how they do it, >> the trade. Yeah, sure. But, you know, like to the extent of like um should should we be surprised that all of a sudden every every central bank is pretty concerned about holding us more US dollars than gold? No. In in fact, like yeah, it's like it's the gradually then suddenly kind of thing that plays out. And central banks are are susceptible to more group think than than retail in my opinion. >> We've we've seen it time and time again through the '9s. they all got on board and sold together and every every one of them just sold at the same time until the lows of whatever it was 250 bucks uh by the end of the 90s and then we've seen the reverse. >> I think you're right. It's you know a lot of it is risk management isn't it? is saying we've got too much of our assets in US dollars and where else can we put it and when you look at it that way there's not many places you can put it right so so gold really stands out so that's what we're looking to do but I think in this day and age um you know the question is you know should you be holding um stockpiles of copper for example um because it's very hard you know as far a value proposition over the next 50 years it looks pretty compelling so I I think there is an argument to say uh you know hard commodities um will be recognized for their sort of intrinsic value which hasn't really been a factor. >> The metal content of the 20 cent Australian coin or the nickels in in the US are >> I think they're at par or above par now. So >> hoard your coins. >> Yeah, >> Dave, advice from me [laughter] >> if if you've got any left. >> Melt them down. >> So yeah, on on that segue, let's jump into copper. Copper has been a really interesting place. that's also up 25 odd percent >> through to to where we are like year to date and we are talking about uh mine closures and you know m uh guidance revisions in Chile in Peru in Indonesia in the DRC in every sort of corner of the world you've got the the the smelting and refinering market tightening and you know ebbing and flowing as well so it's a super interesting space and I think the the sentiment there is as kind of constructive as I've seen it in in the the recent history. So, how how do you kind of feel about that? How do you position yourself in in light of that sort of feeling? >> Yeah, look, copper in our fund, it's our biggest single commodity exposure. It's about 30% of the fund. So, um you know, we're we're very bullish on the outlook there and that's because a number of factors. Firstly, it's a big market. You're talking 25 million tons peranom. Um, China's obviously a, you know, a big buyer of copper, but it's not a a dominant and influential, you know, doesn't um, set the price. So, um, so it's a big market and, uh, and operates effectively, which which is good. Uh, if you look on the demand side, you've got a whole lot of demand drivers. You got the normal sort of industrial growth, um, you've got data centers, you've got defense, um, um, etc. So, there's a whole range of of, uh, of demand. And then on the supply side, as you're saying, you've got 40% of production coming out of um Chile and Peru. Uh and they're subject to social unrest and and uh and issues around um you know, production contailments. Um you've got production coming out of um Africa, which we've seen recently, where there's been some issues. So you've got sort of uh strong demand um um and constrained supply, which um which bodess really well. So um we we like it. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's the there's a lot to like and I mean there's there's been a lot to like about copper for for quite some time but it does it does feel as if things are moving in the right direction there. If we if we jump into the um the quarterly reports starting with uh a copperish name developed that's an interesting one. you've held that in in the past. They are ramping up at Wood Lawn. They are talking about name plate there by March 2026. Recoveries are sort of improving, you know, though it was a bit kind of fraught at at the ramp up kind of stage. And then they're talking about the Kate Lens, which is going to be the honeypot for the first kind of couple years, but how are you thinking about it? How you positioned in it at the moment? >> Yeah. So, so we see it's a stock where um you probably don't want to just uh sit and hold. So, you know, we've been in and out of it a bit. Um uh we've been buying a bit more recently uh particularly after the quarterly which the the market sort of had some concerns with. Um the way we look at it is it's a Woodlon is a project in ramp up. I think you got to evaluate it on how it goes in the March quarter but you're right the Kate lens um you know kicks in then uh grades will be good and uh we think that'll sort of lead to a rerating. You've obviously got Sulfur Springs um going through the um uh you know the final stages of um of assessment with the FID probably mid next year. Um if you want to back one guy in resources, I think it's Bill. Um so we're really bullish on the story and um it's now moved into our top five holdings. Um and uh we'll probably uh continue to chip away and add to that. I'm I'm really curious about your comment about it it not being one you kind of hold for for the long term there. Dave, is is that because the assets aren't, you know, first quartile or where do you kind of come from when you say that? >> It's more market sentiment. So, uh what you tend to see is the price can move up um uh above um where we would assess as reasonable value um um just on momentum and um and so often in those situations we'll take some profits and then come back in. the the way we kind of more generally look at how we how we assess companies is we kind of have an investable universe, right? Um and some sometimes we might sell those companies and sometimes we might be buying those companies, but ultimately they've kind of ticked all the boxes as far as something that we want to own and and develop certainly in that box. It's just that sometimes from a valuation perspective it can get overpriced and and as I think we're seeing now sometimes uh it gets oversold and so that's where we want to be able to come in. >> There's um there's a there's a bit of a bit of activity that is is about in the in the copper space like you know there are deals that can be done and and we know that develop is a um you know Bill Bill in particular is a is a guy that does deals creates value with deals. Um, do you think do you think that deals are a big part of the agenda here, a big part of the reason to own the stock? Do you kind of just think that that inevitably they'll be able to to to outmaneuver or find find a way to become, you know, operator and owner of a very worthy copper project that's better than anything in their portfolio right now? >> Look, I think I'd like to think so. Yeah. You know, I think the proposition at the moment is you get Woodlorn up and operating, you get Sulfur Springs up and operating at the levels that they're, you know, at their forecasting along with their services business, which I think will continue to grow. Uh, they're generating a lot of free cash. And then the question is, well, what are they going to do with that free cash? And I think there's a number of probably second tier assets across Australia that could come on the on the radar which they could perhaps manage and and develop better than than others. Um, so so let's see what happens there. But, you know, I think they got a lot on their plate. If they deliver on these assets, they're in really good shape. But it's a, you know, as we've seen with, um, with Northern Star, um, uh, he's not going to sit still for too long. It's a compelling proposition for like even even if the bite size of an asset is um is seemingly you know insurmountable for for developed standalone then then it it must be a compelling proposition to to think of them as a partnering option in some way shape or form to >> to get there because because you can you can pop in underground operator who who um who might be able to deliver operational improvement versus what you know what's in the model from the vendor at that point in time. Well, I I I think you're entirely right. The the other factor is, you know, the the investor base is looking is really crying out for some alternative copper investments and Sandfire's done a incredible job. Um, but it's priced like a global major, right? So, um uh so I think uh you know there's a space that develop can grow into and and build build investor support. Do you um I know you can buy international stocks, but do you do on the ASX, do you own any Mara or any any capstone? If not, why not? >> Uh we own a little bit of Marramaca. Um and I kind of like the project, but again, valuewise, it's you know, it's not compelling. Um we've owned Capstone in the past and uh and similarly um I think there's probably better ways to play it. We we do invest globally as as well. we in in the natural resources fund, we're going to have 25% of the fund in internationals. So, we've owned um we own Anglo, uh we've owned Tech, and we own Ivanho. Um and what I really like about the copper space is really alluding to what we're talking about before. I'm looking to have big positions in the copper groups that have big copper endowments, right? So, it's not just, you know, can they produce copper for 5 years, it's can they produce copper for 20 to 50 years. I think those assets are going to be hugely valuable in the future. I don't think that strategic value is really factored in yet. >> Ivan Hoe's rebounding and um yeah, if you catch the tailwinds of commodity price, then >> yeah, >> you know, yeah, it's it's a compelling thesis. >> Yeah. >> Let's um let's move on to Romelius. They um yeah, they they uh they came out with a five-year plan, JD. >> They did. So, if we if we look back briefly, $700 million in free cash flow. Obviously, there was a a lot of things going right at MA and and the rest of it, but that's what they did in in the year gone. And they came out with a a pretty highly anticipated 5-year plan that would see them sort of go from 200ish,000 ounces per getting up to 500,000 in 5 years time as Rebecca Row comes online. So we saw the numbers for for Rebecca Row which would come on start construction late 27 come online the the year after as well as a early peak into the numbers at never never talking about sort of putting putting the dirt through the Mount Magnet hub there. So it's kind of taking the the shape that we we think the company will will be in 3 to four to 5 years time and beyond. Never never first re reserve came out 1.6 6 million ounces at 7.3 gram. So obviously what they what they paid for there. Also talking about scaling up Mount Magnet to 4.3 million tons on the on the back of just keeping um the Dal Granga plant a bit cold there for for the intram period. So a lot to kind of dig into here. The the market didn't like it. It came on a day when when the goldies were getting sold off, but they got they got a bit beaten up on on the back of this. And yeah, curious to to hear, Dave, how how you were sort of thinking about this one in in the leadup to it, how you sort of judged the the announcement that came out and yeah, any kind of nuggets in there you think people might have glossed over. >> It was interesting, Dave, like like the all of that stuff with Romelius and and uh and Delgaranga Delganga. It's um well, never never that the PFS that they put out, it's underground. What do you know that you need with underground? >> You need support. >> You need ground you need ground support. I didn't even I didn't even have to give you a clue on that one. Who Who provides the best ground support in the industry? Bar none. >> I don't [laughter] know. >> I'll tell you, you don't have to know. >> Sanvic ground support. There is [laughter] only one name you need to know in the ground support industry. Everyone out there in the Australian and the global mining community knows Sanvic ground support are the champions at ground support. >> They don't that's not the only name they need to know. They need to know Derek Herd's name as well, mate. Because you just give Derek Derek a call. Y >> because Sam Vic ground support is the best. >> We did the QAQC. We went out to QAL. We saw all the products being galvanized, being made. We saw the team hard at work, Australianmade servicing the WA industry here specifically and they're in every other corner of the world and we know they're working hard at R&D over in uh just outside of Stockholm as well. So just keeping the mining industry alive. Go Sanvic. >> Go Sanvic. >> Yeah. Um a couple of things. So, I think the quarterly was was a little disappointing um on really around the grade on um on Penny and Q. Uh and I think it got Yeah. Uh it got sold off a bit on that. I think the five-year plan though was probably better than expectations. Um you know, the the challenge that the group has is uh is it's got a couple of flat years until it does the capex, brings never on and and production then ramps up. But you know, you look out to 2030, you got an asset that's or or a business that's going to be generating 500,000 ounces. So ultimately, it's an asset you want to own. It the one thing that se separates Romelius from most companies in the gold sector is is the management and board are very good custodians of cash, right? It's all about generating free cash and doing something sensible with it. And um and I think that's um um that's a really strong thing. If you look at Remis, historically, it hasn't had a mine life to really get rated as a as a major. Um, but I think it's going to have that now. So, the question for me is um is when do you when do you when do you own this? And you probably want to own a little bit now. We don't own it at at this point. Uh, but ultimately, it's going to be um a leader in the sector for a long period of time. There was a punchy comment in there that I saw calling out the oil in sustaining cost would be mostly below 2,000 bucks unlike peers which are closer to $2,800. I had a couple names in mind but we can leave that one there. Trav, what what did you think of the um the five-year plan? >> Uh yeah, like I think I think you're you're you're right in your your analysis of the company and and I love the way they keep themselves accountable by by always, you know, showing shareholders here's what we we paid for for an asset. here's the amount of development capex we put in to bring online and by the way to date here's the free cash flow that asset has generated and then we sold it or or we kept it still producing. Um now there's there's some big things in that portfolio that are kind of yet to pay pay dividends because they're >> they're being developed and that was part of the five-year plan is is obviously Spartan and Rebecca Row on Rebecca Row. So they called they called FID at at um Rebecca Row. Their base case is a $4,500 Aussie dollar gold price. >> That's that's $340 million upfront um capital and that that'll give them a a $692 million post tax MPV. >> So if you chop chop 500 bucks off of that assumed gold price, >> it's a it's a pretty pretty it's not it's pretty ugly MPV. Yeah. Um yes, body is $6,000 an ounce right right now. 12 months ago though it was $4,000 an ounce. So why do I point that out? Um, I think I think in general like the gold miners are like the corporate, you know, the corporates, the BD teams, they're gunshy about about buying things, you know, they don't they don't want to assume a gold price that's too too bullish and then and then overpay for something in the good times. And here you've got Romelius assuming, you know, calling FID >> Yeah. >> on on an internal project based on a $4,500 gold price. Uh, I just think there's some food for thought on that. you know, the the producers, you know, one by one are going to they're going to be lifting their gold price assumptions in their own models. And I think, you know, if it's if it's good if it's a good enough gold price to justify FID on your own kind of projects on capital, then um then it's probably going to be even more compelling >> when you when you run that gold price on the on the nearby bolt-on opportunities or or on developed sort of ounces that can can feed your meal. So, yeah, I'm waiting for that. >> Yeah, I agree. I reckon the dynamics in the go across the gold companies is really interesting because a lot of them have a shitload of cash right um um you know like you're talking hundreds and 500 mil cash or or more you know I think great will have a billion dollars in cash by the end of the year and Rillian's have 700 something like that so so there's cash there but if you look at um you know if you take the recent quarterlys as a group and you and you look at the free cash flow that they've generated um uh the free cash flow yield and you annualize that, right? There's not many if you annualize the quarterly free cash flow um into a yield, there's not many that are yielding over 8% based on the free cash in, you know, in the recent quarter. So, what that means is equity prices have rallied very strongly. Um and so the the value proposition hasn't necessarily improved. So, I think that comes to your point that um what do you do from here? If if you've if you've got script that's essentially factoring in the current gold price and you got a lot of cash, you probably want to be buying stuff. Um particularly if some of those development projects represent good value and I think there are still a few. So, um yeah, >> it's an interesting time. Yeah. >> Yeah. on that on that theme, you know, like it's always it's always interesting comparing Remix with Wesk Merch and Neighbors and the like and >> um and and even, you know, the two companies both put out a well case a five year plan, West Gold's case a three-year plan in the same month. So, and Westold they they I think they brought out on the first of the month. Um they put out a a decent decent quarterly this week. There was, you know, $10 million of cash generation. >> They've they've saw you know outperformed phenomenally the last couple of months. Um I think they doubled in the space of a month at one point there. It was kind of crazy. And they they did rally on the back of their their three-year plan that they put out there, which was interesting. So they they basically, you know, they show this there's a billion dollars of capex that they're going to spend over the next three years there. >> Um stock went up 11% that day. Compare that with Romelius's 5year plan and um you know, they they they sold off. Uh did I how do you how do you evaluate Yeah. West Gold kind of visav Romelius? Yeah, look, I think West Gold um uh there's if they deliver uh they're they're still relatively, you know, if you look at their production versus market cap, um um they're still relatively cheap. So they're they're building credibility. Um so they continue to deliver on their plan. And I think they'll continue to get rerated uh because relatively on their free cash generation looking I think their free cash generation or the free cash yield for financial year 26 is about 12% which you know puts them um among the best. Um so and given that they've also got mine life um you know that what that says to me is they keep they keep doing what they're saying they're going to do um there'll be a rerating there. Yeah, their all in sustaining cost. I think it went up 200 bucks >> per ounce in the quarter just gone. It would have been only about 100 bucks per ounce if if it weren't further or purchase agreement dynamics that play with you. However, um uh do you are you are you are you concerned by kind of cost creep with with with a company like West God who whose assets, you know, their rolled their you know their marginal the temptation is to to to take a bit more at the edges and produce more ounces but costs rise when you when you do that because Yeah. you know. >> Exactly. And and there's always that temptation to do it when the gold price is going up because you think well the margin's still still huge. Um so you're right we're um we like to own lower cost producers across any commodity and and that's the same in gold. U >> we see if the uh the discipline can remain across the kind of board you know the or the the oil and sustaining cost just creeps higher and higher and higher. It's a it's a trend to kind of watch out for. Should we go Grland while we're still talking? I mean, yeah, they're um >> they're they're they're redeeming themselves after after a bit of a a guidance hiccup. Would you say, JD? >> I I I think they are. And like you said, Dave, sort of approaching a billion dollars in cash in in in due kind of course. So, um on the day they they bounced up after after the the quarterly, how do you all take it on board? How do you take on the recovery since that point in time? I think you know that was on the back of the the last quarterly give or take. So 3 months and they have performed super strongly. I think the share price went from low fives to to eight kind of plus with a with a healthy tailwind in in the gold price. But you're a shareholder. How are you kind of thinking about it now? >> Yeah, look we we like it. We still think it's really one of the standouts in the gold sector. um um you know a billion dollars in cash by the end of this year which basically funds the you know the entire transaction that that they did right so um um the expiration work they're doing at at Tela suggests that Tela is going to be operating for a long period of time and Havon is a cracking asset. So we we thought the market overdid the sell down on the back of the um you know the grade in the stockpile um um and we actually bought more when it when it came off um um so we see it as a core gold holding we think it's one of the best value there >> and uh deal with Antipa on the horizon or not >> I don't think so I don't think think they need it right so um and certainly at the at the valuation of Antipra you know I don't think they'll be they'll be going there soon but But we'll see. >> One to watch. >> Yeah. >> Why don't we wrap through a couple more quarterlys? >> Line town's one of the ones that comes top of my mind. So I I'll give a bit of a synopsis quickly. The the Orton tons their mind that kind of beat expectations and then you had realized pricing was perhaps a bit weaker than expectations. >> The the open pit is coming to the end of its time and more and more of the tons are coming from underground. You've got Pasteville, the biggest kind of paste plant in in the state churning over. But they got beaten up on the back of these results. So they were down 13%. It was a it was a pretty bad day. Perhaps a couple questions about recoveries. Like there was a you know variability in the ore this quarter just gone and that was partially expected but recoveries were below 60%. Company kind of maintains its its 70% recovery target for for the longer term. Balance sheet looking a lot healthier because they did a big big raise in in the quarter just gone. and they kind of amended the the Ford facility as well to buy themselves more time on on that front. Yeah. Curious to hear how you kind of weigh up whether you're in the kind of camp of like things are improving and they're getting closer or you're in the the other side of that that debate and thinking they're going to be a high cost producer. >> Look, the way I look at Lintown is, you know, I think Tony has done an incredible job of controlling the controllable, right? So from an operations perspective, I don't think you could have asked this project to commission and come on stream and and start production any better than it could have. So to me, the issue with Lintown is one um the the spot price is low, right? And and cost of production even for Lintown, which I think will emerge as a pretty cost effective producer, but it's it's way above where you know where they're selling their their spamine for. So, so you got a business that in the medium term is going to lose money. Um, and it doesn't have a strong balance sheet, so it's got net debt. Notwithstanding, it's it's pushed out the the Ford facility, which I think was the right thing to do. But it just means there's pressure there. So, um, I think it will come through one way or another. Whether it has to raise more equity down the track, who really knows? It will come down to how quickly spot prices recover. I think it will end up being a really high quality producer at relatively low cost. Um but um but the key driver will be just what happens at the at the commodity level. >> What do you make of the the the share price? Looks like tripled in in short order. You know that's um and and they're not the only lithium producer. >> Yeah, exactly. I mean Pilra is the same. You kind of go um um you know the economics don't kind of stack up, right? So the market is saying arguably you'd say Ltown and and Pilra are priced as if Spodamine is at you know 13-500 um a ton um and it's [snorts] 800 so there's a bit built in there right um now Pilra is probably the go-to um easy way to play lithium so I can kind of understand it from from a from that perspective and I think Linetown is probably a credit to the way they've gone about doing what they do that that people um will also see that as a go-to in in the lithium space. But ultimately, when the commodity price is below your cost of production, right, um you got to be cautious as an investor. >> Speaking of commodity price below the cost of production, >> I don't know if it's reported that way, but when cash goes down quote quarter, Boss Energy, they um they reported this this today as we're recording. >> JD, what do you think of the quarterly? Well, good day to to report to be a uranium company on the back of an $80 billion government deal in in the States. So, I think when I looked the stock was up 17% 16% there. They're flying. Um, one of the things like we we noticed kind of straight away is they're not just reporting what the cash position is. We know they've got inventories, but cash, inventories, investments, and receivables. It sort of feels like it's getting a bit long in the tooth there when you add in every every kind of column. >> Receivables but not payables, mate. That's [laughter] well that would that would make it look bad. But on an operation side, you've got column 4 commissioning. You've got new wellfields being brought online. One of the details I kind of noticed is that the PLS exenner kind of dipped. So it went from 88 to to 81 >> in in the most recent quarter, which is kind of interesting with new wellfields coming online there. >> Um yeah, drummed production was was up a bit, but um yeah, ex production was down 20,000 tons. So we're talking figures just below 400,000 odd tons there. And I think most importantly what people are laser focused on is that workers started drilling has started properly delineating resources at the kind of contentious if you like uh pro uh deposits they've got out there at east kind of karoo and others and you've got the honeymoon review to this quarter. So the December quarter >> and that is what a lot of people affixiated on when when they came out with that announcement. the stock just about h haveved on on the back of this. So, uh, positives and negatives there. How are you kind of weighing it? How do you how do you think about this and the the the restart projects more broadly and the uranium landscape on the ASX, Dave? >> Yeah, I don't think we've owned an ASX listed uranium stock. Um uh and the problem I see is this is that there's you know in Australia in particular but globally there's not many um uranium stocks of any size or scale. Um and um as interest in the sector has increased you've had a lot of money flowing in and and prices and valuations have been pushed up. So um I just don't see the value proposition for a lot of these companies because basically they're they're relatively small scale. they're relatively high cost. Um and until you get higher uh uranium prices um um you know it's just not a compelling value proposition. So um you know it's a bit like the discussion we're just having that you need this you need the the commodity price to be at higher levels to kind of gain some interest. But I think there's better value in, you know, in a in a NextG or um or some of the developers or or Dennis um uh in Canada and um uh and some of the the the emerging developers out of Canada. >> Do you have like a rule of thumb or a way of thinking about restart projects in general? Are you pretty open-minded when it when it kind of comes to it? >> Um I think you got to be careful depending on the type of project, but um you know, boss is a good example of of of what can go wrong. So, you just need to be you need to be really careful and you don't want to be paying a premium for them as if it's all going to go right. I think you got to assume there's going to be ramp up. There's going to be a few hurdles along the way. Um >> yeah, I I think um I think I think trying to figure out uh are things going to get better from here or or they get worse before they get better for boss. And uh all the answer to that question kind of lies in in the geology of these kgaroo. this they're still producing. I mean um you know uranium right now is is still >> dominantly coming from from honeymoon where where grades are much much much higher than than east calar in fact >> between two and three times higher in the you know in the early kind of uh yeah resource resource models that were well resource statements that were put to market. So yeah, so the the extent that these KG group can string together and you can and you can economically extract, you know, much lower grade there and they have to put put in more more wells to to do all of that, reagents involved and everything. Like >> what uranium price does it take for that to make positive cash flow? Because that might it might be an inconceivable uranium price when when the honeymoon resources all gone? And if that's the case, then >> then things get worse before they get better. Well, I I think you're right. You know, the the issue the issue that I had with the sector is um it wasn't pricing for the risk, right? So, um and obviously boss has come come back from it its peak and and it's getting a bit closer, but um if I'm after you, the way I often look at it is once you've made a call on the commodity, I think uranium outlook is really good, then the last thing you want to do is make a a poor stock call, right? So your first protocol is to look at the high quality uh producers or developers and say um um are they that much more expensive than the second tier that you know that I should be bypassing them. And I think in uranium there's there's been better opportunities um than um than some of these local ones. Yeah, >> I think that's well said. Dave, should we jump into some grade control? >> Indeed. You know what we do here, Dave? Great great things. A to F. >> Yeah. [laughter] So we're talking corporate moves, government policy. We've got a few of of the above here and yeah, we can just sort of rotate through them fairly quickly. Let's start with Lovato, Trav. >> Yes, mate. So Lovato, they uh they came out uh early in the week effectively saying that they've they've rejected the uh the the non-binding offer put, you know, given to them by US Antimony Corp. Um now US antimony court proposed to to an all script transaction after you know basically buying a bunch of love auto shares on market the week prior up till the Friday um at a you know at a merger ratio that you know was probably probably marginally marginally higher than the highest price that they paid at the point at which they announced it. Now Lovato's um yeah like shares upon upon revelation of of this have obviously shot up and and USMY Corp as you'd expect have uh have come down a fair bit. Lovato's rejected the bid >> and it looks like we're we're in for, you know, an entertaining way that things play out. Underpinning all of this is US Antimony Corp's need to to backfill um supply. They've got, you know, they've got a pretty hefty contract to to to deliver antimony from the US government and um and they're they're keen to to source that from all all parts of the globe. Uh in in Lavado's case, they actually entered an an offtake with with WAN. I think it was I think it was last year late last year >> but from the from the bit of detail we can actually see about that wage off take it looks like Lavado still has some ability to influence where the final destination of of the product is even though wan has kind of marketing rights so usn must have taken the view that they can actually still influence the final destination and that is that is the proposition of why lava is a uh a takeover target what have you made of this one Dave >> yeah look I think it comes down to time and money doesn't it. So, um, so I think Lovato have done the right thing. They've said, um, you know, they batted them away and they know that, you know, US and Tiny are committed, right? They're a shareholder and and they they, you know, they need the asset. So, I think from a rating, I'd give them a B. Um, they're doing what they you'd expect them to do, but ultimately, you'd expect a deal be done. Um, a price will be set and um and it'll happen. Yeah. trading trading um substantially above the the terms of the initial offer right now. So the market's pricing in the fact that that an uplift is is on its way and yeah given that the the somewhat host hostile nature of the the uh yeah the the buying the the stake and and uh and announcing it and the likes. Yeah, wouldn't wouldn't be surprised to to see see an uplift here and an eventual deal. But the shareholders might be hard to keep happy. Dave, I've noticed this about the antimin shareholders. They >> they are um yeah, I don't know what price will be the right price for them. So, there might be a bit of work to get them on side for for a deal TBD, but I give this I give it a B. Like, >> uh yeah, I mean, >> love paid sweet stuff all for this asset and in no time it is >> um they're cop, >> you know, a very credible deal worth, you know, hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars. It's um it's remarkable. I'll give it an A. >> A A for entertainment. I think >> A because like you guys sort of alluded to and kind of said there, they um >> you know, the counterpart is trying to backfill value. So, they're getting paid in shares. You want to make sure they're pretty pretty well kind of priced and they're just doing the the right thing by their shareholders. And yeah, that uh aggressive buying on on market was interesting to to say the least from USAC. So keen to see where where this one goes and how Lavoto can kind of maximize value and cement value for for their shareholders. >> Yeah. >> Next one is uh a lithium related story. So we're going to talk about Lintown and we're going to talk about Pilra here. So the context is the price flaws that we've spoken a fair bit about in a variety of critical minerals. So you had Dale Henderson obviously who runs um PLS being quizzed as well as Tony Oviano and yeah they're talking about the $1.2 billion strategic reserve and what a kind of price floor in the the lithium world would look like and the implications that would come off the back of that. So I think Dale handled this pretty pretty deafly and very kind of diplomatically. He was sort of saying things to the tune of if deployed in the right way these could be positive but equally there could be bad unintended consequences. The concern people have in this regard is that the Ron projects get supported. And I think, you know, the people being concerned there is is Dale. And I think he's, you know, that that is the most um pressing way you're going to get Dale to say it's a pretty stupid idea. He's never going to come out and say it just like that. And then similar words from Tony, although he kind of caged it, saying, "We're happy with the National Reconstruction Fund and the way that that invests, we just don't want price flaws," which is, you know, uh I I I I don't know how you can hold both those two views in your head at the same time, unless somebody's just bought into your capital raise a few months ago and you you want to kind of say it that way. On that point, our taxpayer money is now up 40 odd% since the capital raise. [clears throat] So, I am all for the fund cashing out that they've done it. Take it off the table. That's a fantastic win in the space of a few weeks. And to to wrap a kind of grade around all of this, I I would give it an A again and just kind of be generous because I like the public talking down of price flaws. I think the bad and unintended consequences are very real and they can distort the market. Dave, what do you think? >> Yeah, look, I I think you're right. I'd give them an A or a B. Um and for similar reasons you know I think when when governments start to get involved in business often it doesn't end well and um you know uh I think we've talked before you know governments as allocators of capital um I'm not sure you want to be uh dependent on on that and have an industry built around that. Um and again as I think you guys have talked numerous times through your you know through your through your previous episodes. What I'd like to see governments focus on is is delivering cheaper energy, delivering um you know a greater volume of skilled work workers and uh and faster approvals. And any distraction from that is a distraction, right? If they do that, they get those three things right, the mining industry in Australia will boom. And uh it's all very well to talk about stock piles and and uh floor prices and all that, but um you know, they're they're around the periphery. The key is deal with the fundamentals first. >> I I should just add in quickly before you jump in, Trav, that Dale did talk up shared infrastructure as well to your point there. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. The infrastructure is the the lowhanging fruit. >> Yeah. >> And and energy is even lower hanging fruit really. Like that's that's a political will thing. >> Yeah. >> Um >> Yeah. like we like we are not competitive like uh you know on on in a variety of different areas unless we were blessed geologically by um by having you know the world's best iron ore um this is this is not a competitive place to to produce from an opex perspective and you know things need to be done about that there's there's some easy things to do uh glad glad we don't have any price flaws I I would have um >> yeah maybe sought citizenship somewhere else if we if we if we went there but um anyway I I won't hold my breath We might get that in other commodities. >> Well, and maybe on rare earths, it's one where where something in place makes more sense than most commodities, but uh but we'll see. Yeah. >> Yeah. I I I think in the lithium case specifically, it's it's not one that makes sense. I think we're we're kind of in agreeance there. Just it's it's a different kind of >> ball game there. >> Let's jump into Sweet and Sour deal. We can run through a bunch of these. We've got capital raisings. We've got deals and and sales. We've got governmentish uh support being lent as well. Trev, you picked upon Alba selling their catalyst business um earlier this week. >> So they agreed to sell controlling stake in uh Ketchin Corps refining catalyst solutions business to KPS capital partners and it's 50% interest in uh Uricat joint venture to Axen's SA. So generating together about US $660 million in proceeds. Uh yeah, so this is sweet deal. I take is um Albal they they have the worst balance sheet in the sector like it is >> number one Alba number two album number three album for most like the worst balance sheet um and and and that's been an an own goal of of their their own like would they would they have sold these if they didn't have to I don't know like I like I don't actually know the quality of these businesses um but I do know how bad their balance sheet is and I guess they might not have sold them if their balance sheet were in the situation it is. So, I think it's a sour deal, but their hand is forced and um and that's their own, you know, they got their own gibberish to blame for that. >> Yeah, I I agree. Um and again, I don't know the catalyst um asset that well, but you'd suggest the only reason they're selling it is because um because of the debt pressures they've got. >> Yeah. Sour on long-term thinking. Coronado. So they announced a um an arrangement with Stanwall who is a kind of Queensland government arm talking about US $265 million in debt being provided, rebate fees being waved, prepayments being a possibility of cash dips below a certain level. All that is to say Coronado is in a world of pain. Coal prices are in the gutter and they are, you know, looking under every every couch and in every kind of corner for for spare cash to to keep them alive. The more interesting point here is that it is the government of of sorts that is you know bailing them out in a sense because they are a buyer of this product. So Queensland partly to to blame their their energy policy for the fact that they have to do this as as a government and write a check to a a coal producer. So I think it's a yeah from from that perspective that's how I'm going to look at it. I'm going to call it a a sour deal, but you can sort of slice and dice this one in a few different ways. Have you got thoughts on it? >> Yeah, I think it's sour for a number of different reasons. I think from a Coronado perspective, um they've probably um having a major shareholder that didn't want to be diluted means that uh they've got too much debt um at a time when the commodity price is is is low. So that puts them under a whole lot of pressure um and and hence they had to do this deal. I think it's also sour because basically what you had was a company operating in Queensland where you had a change in the royalty uh regime uh which really crunched them and leaves them exposed when the commodity price is low and that's forced them to um to agree to this this deal um which uh which really takes out the upside. you know, a lot of people were looking at Coronado because the roll off of the Stanmore um payments, you know, was was 27 and uh and that that you know that that uptick was something like 130 million bucks a year, right? Which really underpins the value of the business. So they've had to give away a lot. Um so I think for a whole lot of reasons it's sour. What's the what's the the the name of the collie call business that uh is distressed and the government just props it up every year writing more and more. Anyway, I feel like it's just going that way. You know, it's it's not good for equity, but like this thing's it just becomes pseudo nationalized because you need the power. >> Yeah. >> I can Yeah. Equity doesn't win. But >> Amazing how quick things can turn though. >> Like two years ago, this is a a $2 stock. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah, Perpetual. >> Oh, this NASDAQ listed Perpetual Resources. They announced a US $255 million strategic equity investment from Agneo Eagle who chipped in 180 of that. Um, which gave them a 6.5% stake. They got warrants there, too. Plus, you see JP Morgan's sexy new security fund. >> Uh, so 75 million from there is is is is part of this raise. Those two parties, both of them got juicy warrants along with it. And then the next day, uh, Perpetual Ris 78 million more to a broader audience, um, at a at a dollar a dollar higher per per share than the initial deal. Perpetual's key assets gold project in central Idaho supposed to produce both gold and antimony, hence the critical minerals angle here, Dave, sweet deals, our deal. >> Um, again, I don't I don't know the intricacies of it all that much, but I'd have to say it's a sweet deal in that um, you get AgO involved. Um um then uh I think you're doing well. >> I I say sweet deal for Perpetual. I mean they locked in strategic capital first and raised more on better terms. Um >> can I say s deal for Agniko? >> There's not enough upside in it for him. Yeah. >> Ag they're they're they're a classy minor and they've got Yeah. Like I can't I can't in all reality critique their their um capital allocation. That's um that would be [clears throat] absurd. But I don't I don't really understand a lot of their uh strategic stakes in a lot of different companies. And they've got 90 of them, believe it or not. 90 minority stakes in um in Yeah. Like in other companies. >> Yeah. >> Uh so I do understand most of the gold ones, but I don't understand the non- gold ones that they've got. Like a lot of their base metals allocation have been d like dubious or curious to me. And then the the this one um yeah like the it's Agneo and they're they're they're kind of you know doing the Trump pump kind of thing like I don't know hiko I'm a podcaster but I just think I just think for Aging >> very interesting one I like the um the JP Morgan security fund you mentioned I think it's called like the America first fund or something >> that kind of cracks me up. Yeah I'm perpetual. I think it's a sweet deal. You got to take the money whilst you can whilst you can get it. And this is the environment to to take it on board. Really really kind of fascinating from a um from an agono perspective. >> You mentioned the 90 other stakes they've got. Most of them are a lot smaller than than this one. This is a >> a fair bite size for them to take. So yeah, I I wonder if there's a a kind of you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours and they get something kind of decent in America or something becomes a bit easier for them for for getting this stite gold project off the ground. So we'll see about that one. Another one with government involvement. >> Oh mate, >> Arafura, >> the uh the the big the the big capital of the world all in this one deal, mate. So Arafur raised $475 million in a two placement at uh 28 cents per share 25% discount to last Hancock Gina giving in 125 million of that um and that'll bring her stake to to about 16%. Now, Arafura, they say that the proceeds of this race um together with the 50 million SP that they're also uh doing will complete the public equity component of their Nolan's rare earth project in the middle of Australia. FID on Nolan is expected early next year and Hatch is the preferred EPCM of that. I'll give my take first. This is not the final public equity component of Nolan's sour deal. Happy for aura shareholders who've had a had a win in recent months, but um it's our deal. >> Yeah. >> Dave, who who are you going to rate here and and how are you going to rate them? >> Well, I think if you're rating Arafura, it's a sweet deal. Um because they're capitalizing on the market and um and the interest in rarest space and the fact that Gina's um you know, really underpinning the the raise. Um I think Gina has a longer term um time frame and assessment period than uh than a lot of investors. So um but but I think from a value proposition as an as a as a investor coming in I think you got to be cautious because I think there's two things that rare earth projects like this the hard rock ones in particular need. One is capital and the other is expertise and if you look at Linus as an example it took them 20 years to uh to get them out weld and processing activities up and running. So I think there's risk in the sector because it's difficult. Um, so I think um, our review have done the right thing. They've they've grabbed the cash while it's been available. So, so good on them. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Sim similar to how you think about it, Dave, I'm I'm very cautious about the rare earths world. And >> yeah, for that reason, I haven't partaken in the >> in the 10xing of multiples of these these stocks around there. >> And I think, you know, once we get to that point in time, FOD Construction, uh, we'll really see what Arafur and Nolan is is all about. But >> why the rumors sell the news on on the uh on the rare earth stocks the last few weeks. Have you noticed that? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Very much so. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. So, I think you gota like like we sort of said, would I have tipped into that capital raising? Probably not. But what what do I kind of know about it? I I think it is interesting from that perspective and also the evolution of of Gina as the um yeah the the kind of dominant shareholder in in a whole bunch of rare earth names like that is not something I would have forecasted a few years ago and she like you sort of rightly say that these aren't the biggest checks in the world for her. you can think long term about these things and very curious to see where where that kind of evolving um dynamic goes and and what she might look at next you know because it started started with kind of lithium now rare earths where where does that kind of portfolio grow to >> but that's actually an interesting point on like there there are limited like sources of of capital they're willing to write big checks which are necessary to progress projects um you know and you have to have a long-term time horizon. We're blessed that our mining industry has created a number of of billionaires who who and some of them uh are willing to write checks like that. So Gina's capital is tremendously important to the to the um you know the future prosperity of of of the industry but the conditions for that capital need need to be appropriate for for her to be even that more interested in um in investing in Australia. I do know that that like you know you look at some of the numbers of the the US investment she's made lately just uh yeah Trump trumps a lot of the the the capital we're talking about in in some of these positions. would love to know what she thinks of all this government involvement. [laughter] You know, it's awfully close to it. I >> think you can research some of some of her thoughts on government involvement >> as it pertains to to some issues. Definitely. >> Yeah. >> All right. Medallion and Aerys to to wrap things up. Tra, do you want to kick us off with Medallion? Medallion uh secured an exclusive agreement with Trafy for up to US $50 million funding uh via senior secured prepayment facility and a 7-year copper and gold offtake for its Ravens Thorp Gold project and Forestania operations. My take don't have all the details yet so we can't we can't like you know be be precise in in giving it a sweet deal sour deal but I go go out on a limb and call it a sweet deal anyway. the um just the quantum the counterparty kind it just reminded me of the AIC uh 50 million trafficy you know facility as well these you know and what is that like what's the common theme here um you miners and developers who are able to fund their their growth without as much equity dilution and on okay terms because smelters everywhere are desperate for concentrate traffic ura included yes they make money on the marketing yes there'll be hooks in in the offtake but but the this is a point in time where it was miner can actually get some of that upside yourself and and uh and avoid the dilution and maybe it's actually more attractive capital than um project finance. So, good deal. Sweet deal. >> Yeah. Yeah. Look, I I I agree with you. I think it's a sweet deal. Obviously, we don't know all the terms and conditions attached, but I think you're right. Um it's better than further equity dilution and it's probably less ownorous than a than a debt facility. So, makes sense. >> Agreed. The the the capital landscape right now is pretty competitive. So hopefully that the terms are quite good and um on the back of that sweet deal as well. >> Last one to wrap it up. Uh Aries launched an $85 million capital raise price at45 cents a share 13% discount. So and what are they using the funds for to repay debt owed by major shareholder Soul Pats. Um so Soul Pats I think they own 31ish% of the stock but that you know also um also a big lender and Soul Pats. Yeah. Uh how did how did all of that happen? Well, they they sold them the round oak assets and um yeah, so so I'm I'm giving this a sweet deal. Check out the chart of AIS on the on the focus chart by market tech that we're we're putting up right now. And um like the fact that Aries is a $500 million company just crept up on me. >> Yeah, it's it's a it's a um and and here we are. It is >> raise 100 million while you can and get, you know, improve your balance sheet. Like absolutely sweet deal. Yeah, I I I tend to agree. So, um raise the money while you can. And uh I mean I think it's um it's been a bit of an underperformer. Um um but um strengthening your balance sheet this time of cycle makes sense. >> It'd be absolutely mad not to take that money at that at that chair price. All right, guys. Let's wrap up with some hidden gems. Trav, kick us off. What's uh what's capturing your attention? >> My hidden gem, mate, it's AGM season. uh you you like if you don't get stuff mailed to you then the announcements of the stocks you own you'll see this thing there called a notice of AGM open that up and on there it has the the meeting location and and the time and date of the AGM of the stocks that you own and my one my one like yeah suggestion to to uh to listeners out there go to an AGM this this year just just pick just pick one of them maybe your favorite stock or maybe a stock that you just like um you think there'll be some some something worth attending like just go to an AGM you will learn a hell of a lot more than reading any announcement they put out and you have access to the board which which is usually kind of pretty tricky to to to access for a lot of these stocks. Uh massively underrated. >> Dave, what have you got, mate? >> So um so my hidden gem is is holidays. So, I've just come back from holidays uh in Laos uh at a at a at a town called Luang Prabang. Um which is on the Mikong River uh beautiful spot. Uh now is the time of year to go between now and December, otherwise it gets uh a bit hot and steamy. Um but a fascinating country. It about 7 million people. Uh it's the most bombed country in history. Um uh it's on the Mikong River which is beautiful. Um most of the population are Buddhist and um uh and also the the government is is communist. So it's kind of got something for everyone. >> That is that is fascinating. You you fly via via Thailand to get there or >> so you can you can actually fly directly into the capital which is Ventan from Perth which is interesting. Um or alternatively you go through through Thailand and then >> direct flight very very appealing. I like it. I will wrap up with um my my hidden gem. It is a record player. So, I've become a snob that that listens to records now. Total snob. And >> I bought one when I lived in Melbourne, too. >> Yeah. It it just happens [laughter] to you when you go over there. And I think it's a a sort of fantastic thing just to to chuck on a record, listen to the the whole thing through, you know, gets you, you know, you can you can just enjoy a piece of piece of work for 30, 40, 50, 50 minutes and and feel the uh the flow through a whole album as opposed to just a song. So if you if you want to be a snob, get a record player. >> There we go. Thanks a bunch for joining us, Dave. That was fantastic to cover so many topics with you. Much appreciated. >> Yeah, my pleasure. Good good to be here again. It's great to great to talk about the stocks that we love, Dave. And um great to see yeah the natural resource fund, you know, going from strength to strength. So, congrats to you and um >> and great to see the Sanvic Ground Support business just supporting the whole industry and the uh the charts right behind Dave's head. You can see there brought to you by Focus, the platform that Market Tech does. Check him out. >> Hero. Cheers. >> Now, remember, I'm an idiot. JD is an idiot. If you thought any of this was anything other than entertainment, you're an idiot and you need to read our disclaimer.