Soft September CPI Bolsters Calls for More Fed Cuts | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 10/24/2025
Summary
Market Rally: A cooler-than-expected inflation report has sparked a significant rally on Wall Street, with major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hitting record highs, driven by investor optimism about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy: The softer inflation print supports expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting, with discussions around a possible 25 basis point cut, although a 50 basis point cut is considered unlikely.
Corporate Earnings: Companies like Procter & Gamble, Advanced Micro Devices, and Ford reported strong earnings, contributing to market gains, with Ford's stock notably surging due to robust sales despite a warning about future profit impacts from a factory fire.
Inflation and Consumer Impact: Despite the softer inflation report, concerns remain about rising service prices and tariffs affecting consumer goods, with some sectors like furniture experiencing significant price increases.
Real Estate and Distressed Investments: The podcast highlighted opportunities in opportunistic real estate investments, particularly in distressed sectors, with banks offering more favorable lending conditions as spreads narrow.
Economic Disparities: The concept of a "k-shaped economy" was discussed, indicating that while higher-income individuals benefit from market gains, lower-income consumers face challenges due to inflation and potential job insecurities.
Global Economic Concerns: The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical issues, such as U.S. support for Argentina amidst its economic struggles, were also discussed, highlighting their potential impact on global markets.
Transcript
This is Bloomberg Businessweek Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance and tech news as it happens, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily with Carol Massar and Tim Stanek back live on Bloomberg Radio, television, YouTube and Bloomberg Originals. Definitely Friday here at Bloomberg. Why do you say so? Why do you say that? Get insights from our producer, Ari. You're given himself. I'm never given SAS. I don't give SAS. I just get SAS. All right. It is Friday, October 24th, 2025. I feel like October was like you just flying past us at the S&P 500 hitting a high today. Yep. 1% on the S&P. Right now, the NASDAQ composite up a 1.3%. We're going to have much more on the trade with Alexis Christoph for us in just a minute. But a cooler than estimated inflation print that supports the Fed cutting rates. We're all in on that. Michael. Mickey is here. We're going to speak to him in just a minute. Yeah, pressures on Mike. We were talking about the data and the Fed policy. We're also going to check in with Katie Kaminsky laid out for simplex we were talk fed to with her treasury trade. A lot coming your way. Drew Matt is chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, joining us on the k-shaped economy and how the consumer is not okay. I love this. We're going to dig into that. Also, in the shadow of regional banking concerns over real estate, we get into opportunistic real estate investments in the distressed sector. We do that with the CEO of clear investment groups. As so much coming your way, do not go anywhere. Stay with us on this Friday. First up, let's get a check on the trade and the rally underway with Alexis Christopherson. Thanks, Carol and Tim. That cooler than expected inflation report has ignited a powerful rally on Wall Street. Investors betting the report paves the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average up better than 1%. Now it's up 530 points at 47000 to 64. The S&P 500 up 64 points above 6800. That's a record high. The Nasdaq composite gaining nearly 300 points, a game there of one and a third percent. Procter and Gamble reporting fiscal first quarter earnings and revenue that beat analysts estimates despite higher costs from tariffs. Results getting a boost from strong demand for its beauty and grooming products. P&G stock up now 6/10 of 1% and shares of Advanced Micro Devices jumping here on a report that IBM can use the company's chips to run certain quantum computing algorithms. IBM plans to launch a quantum computer by 2029, and it announced that partnership with AMD back in August. Shares of AMD up now nearly 7%, and Ford's strong sales pushed the automaker's revenue and operating income well past estimates. Investors here looking past Ford's warning that a fire at an aluminum factory will dent fourth quarter profits. Shares of Ford driving ahead nearly 13%. The New York Knicks sent Zoran Mamdani the frontrunner in next month's mayoral election a cease and desist order for the use of the team's iconic logo. In his campaign ad, Mamdani ran an ad during the home opener on Wednesday that ended by flashing the team's blue and orange basketball logo with Zoran in place of Knicks for On Demand news 24 hours a day. Subscribe to Bloomberg News now wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Alexis Christophe Riss. That's a Bloomberg business Flash Don't mess with the Knicks. Tim and Carol. No. Oops, indeed. That's important. IP That's for sure. All right, Alexis, thank you so much. Yes, we are in a U.S. government shutdown. It's now in its fourth week. Is it 24, 24 days, I believe, Mike, is that right? 24, 24, 24 days. Oh, counting we are. Well, I'm trying to, but sometimes I forget what was the weirdest thing. It just feels like nobody cares. But anyway, we should point out, though, in the absence of a lot of official data from the U.S. government, we did get a highly anticipated read on inflation today. It's a bit of a welcome surprise to him. Yeah, that's particularly for several policymakers who are leery of cutting rates a further here at the data and the market and the Fed implications. We got Bloomberg TV and Radio International economics and policy correspondent Michael McKee. Isn't it kind of wild, though, we're in this shutdown like in the past when we've covered it, our coverage shutdowns were all over it nonstop. And it's just the weirdest thing. Well, yesterday, the president tore down half the White House. So I know it's kind of hard to I know know what to focus on these days. The economy is chugging along, which is probably one reason that we're not seeing as much focus on it, because people are still we're not seeing big layoffs yet, although the number of layoff announcements came this week and people are still there, incomes are coming in, There's still spending. If if things continue to weaken, then it'll become much more of an issue. And then we want to talk about an inflation report, too, as well. We've also got another guest with us. Kaminski is joining us. She's chief research strategist and portfolio manager with Alfa Simplex Group. She joins us from Boston. Mike, here in the studio. Mike, let's go back to the inflationary print, though, and really the focus of it. Look, we don't know if even we're going to get one for this month. We don't know. Or do we know If we don't, We don't know. The White House suggested that we wouldn't, but but it's not definitive. It's not definitive. Why did we get one for last month? Social Security. It's because of the cost of living increase. The cost of living increases. 2.8%, I believe. Yeah, 2.8% calculated based on the average of the third quarter KPIs. So they knew this last one from September to be able to put that out and it legally has to go out by the 1st of November. So interesting. You got that. So not too worried about inflation right now. No, we're worried about inflation right now. Okay. I thought this was a softer print. It was a slightly softer print. But, you know, what people were watching for was two things. One is it services prices still rising and services prices were still rising, with a big exception for home prices, the way they calculated with an equivalent rent. And it they almost collapsed down, up just a 10th after being up, you know, 4/10, 5/10, 3/10 for some a couple of years. So that could be noise. And it's it is an anomaly and we don't know. But if you take that out, then you have still regularly about the same as we've been with the service prices and then tariffs used car prices dropped a lot during the month. And if you take out autos, you still have core goods prices rising. And we saw things like furniture up 9/10 of a percent, almost a full percentage point and other other tariff goods rising in price. So it does show that that's starting to bleed through. Hey, listen, Katie, we want to bring you into this because, you know, if I look at the Treasury trade over this month, we've seen benchmark benchmark, ten years below 4% is kind of where we are, although we've had some volatility in today's trade. Bring in your read on the inflation print and what it means for the Treasury trade. Well, this is a good question because what we've seen is a little bit of jitters around this potential CPI print. But to be honest, the bond trends haven't moved that much. They've been up and they've been back down. So there doesn't seem to be a lot of movement in that asset class in reaction to the Fed, the movements actually much more in other asset classes, like a strong dollar. And it makes no sense, right, if we're getting mixed race. Exactly. Lower rates, strong dollar. And then the movements today that are consistent with the CPI move or the equity market just, you know, showing relief about some concerns about not getting rate cuts because of the shutdown. I think two might come on in on this, push it to next week. I mean, does that mean that we might not get rate cuts as a result of the shutdown? No, we'll get we'll get the rate cut. The Fed is the folks on surveillance talking about 50 basis points this morning. Not going to happen. Who are you want to get on surveillance? You have to be outrageous if you want to talk to the Trefis machine. His name rhymes with Tom Keene. Yeah. No, we're not going to get 50 basis points. We're get 25. The question is, will we even have any dissents other than Stephen Myron, who's already sort of advertised? He's going to dissent every time unless he gets unless he gets 50 or 75 basis points or whatever. I mean, that's why they sent him there. But the Fed came into this meeting letting the markets believe in a 25 basis point cut. And there's nothing in the inflation data that's going to say, screamingly, you can't do that. So the Fed will just go ahead and and cut rates. But I wouldn't put any bets yet on what's going to happen in December. Katy, you were on surveillance this morning. Tim and I were listening. Were you one of those crazy kids who said 50 basis points? I don't think so. No, definitely not. I'd say I was surprised, though, because I think the numbers did come in a little bit. I thought they'd come in as expected. So coming in a little better than expected definitely accelerated some of the trends that we're seeing. I do think it kind of relieve the market from concerns. I think the bigger shocks would be if you had any sort of shift in policy. So the less likelihood of a shift in policy is what has kind of soothe the markets right now. There an interesting story in the Bloomberg that caught my attention. I'm curious what you guys think about this. The bond markets movements have been suggesting a U.S. downturn for three years, since three month Treasury yields first pushed above ten year ones are right there. In this notes, the yield curve is predictive. Power may be sounding a false alarm this time. This is from Campbell Harvey. Due to factors such as massive fiscal spending and healthy finances of consumers and corporations. Do you agree, Katie? I would have to say it is very contextual because when you look at the inverted yield curve over different periods of time, you know, I think some of the potential inflation and other issues with policy is just kind of not necessarily means that there is a recession right away. So I think it's been sort of a false signal during this market environment. Yeah. We should mention that Campbell Harvey is the Duke professor who came up with the idea of the inverted yield curve signaling recession. And I think there's been general consensus at the Fed and among economists since we went through almost since we went through the great financial crisis. But certainly coming out of COVID, that it's not reliable now for a whole host of reasons. So ignore it. Ignore it. Yeah. Hey, Mike, we're going to be speaking with Drew Matus over at MetLife Investment Management in just a minute about the consumer prepping for that conversation and like Lay lay the groundwork here. How is the consumer doing? Well, I think you advertise it as the k-shaped economy or not. That explains kind of where we are with the consumer. But guess what? As we'll hear from Drew, we kind of argues that the case that the Top end isn't doing as well as people think. Well, I think the Top End is doing just fine, because when you get to the higher top end, you're making all your money off of interest and dividends and the stock market just keeps going up and up and up. It's the people who are on fixed income and low wages who are struggling now because inflation is still going up and they're there. They're trying to make ends meet and finding it harder and harder. If you go to the grocery store lately to buy hamburger or something like that. So you have this bifurcation. And the question is how long can people hang out before they start pulling back on spending? And there's anecdotal evidence that they're starting to pull back in some areas already. Then if we get any layoffs, as some of these companies are seeing. P&G today had, you know, good, good earnings. But oh, yeah, by the way, we're going to get rid of 1800 people. Hey, Katie, I want to go back to just one, you know, about the idea of what we're seeing in equity markets versus bond markets versus the dollar strength. I mean, I'm trying to, you know, gold, silver rally then more recently dropping back to the market metrics fit together. Makes sense. They tell one story or no. And if not, then what does that mean? So this is a good question. I think for me, the question has been, you know, it's been a growth story in equities having good GDP numbers. So you're seeing that very strong equity trend. But coupled with that, seeing also very strong gold and a weaker dollar has made me feel a little nervous about that. You know, there's a chance that we might have an overstimulation, So low rates, high growth and you kind of have inflation potential. I think today's print is helpful in the short term, but those are the themes that I'm seeing where there's sort of a hedge out there against, you know, things look good, but, you know, we need to proceed with caution. We could have inflation. We may have issues, especially with the weaker dollar. So this firm dollar is also kind of interesting to me. I think probably the most interesting recently. All right. Great stuff. Great. Where we can do a double dip with Katie Kominski on this morning. On this afternoon. She's chief research strategist, portfolio manager with Alpha Simplex Group. Hey, we're going to stay on this. Mike's going to stay with us. We want to bring your attention to something that Jp morgan's Asset Management's chief global strategist David Kelly said this morning to you on BTV on surveillance, talked about the Fed inflation and the K-shaped economy. I think the Fed is going to keep on kind of cutting rates is generally a better than expected report. But I think what it really shows is we have a k-shaped economy and it's sort of a k-shaped CPI report. It is clear that mainstream retailers don't believe they can pass on the tariff increases right now. And that's what's making this inflation rate a little bit tamer than people feared. Want to bring in, of course, that was Jp morgan's David Kelley earlier today. But right now I want to add to the mix. The senior economist actually was a former senior economist at Lehman Brothers. We've been talking to him for a long time. We're talking about Drew Mattis. He's the chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, joining us from New Jersey. Drew, your recent know caught the attention of our tell you, Terrelle, about how the consumer is not okay. Walk us through that. Well, there is a k-shaped recovery or a consumer. The upper end is doing reasonably well. But the question is always kind of how what's the change looks like. And the change for the upper end consumer is beginning to show signs of stress. Now, whether that's because a lot of the federal workers would fall in that hundred thousand plus category or whether it's something else, what we are seeing is that upper income consumers are increasingly saying that their real incomes are expected to decline over the next year, and their job separation anxiety is actually quite high, particularly relative to kind of lower income cohorts, probably because a lot of the jobs that had been being created were actually kind of, you know, health care and kind of other jobs that in many cases tend to be, you know, kind of lower income side of things. And so I think, yes, they're doing fine for now, but there are signs of stress and ignoring them is something that can lead to trouble. I got to tell you, Drew, I see that anecdotally right now with people looking for jobs who have been making good money and got laid off and, you know, been looking for jobs for months at this point. When do we if we haven't already, how does that then manifest in data? And we're not necessarily getting it from the government, but how does that manifest in data that investors can react to, Drew? Well, I think the one way it will manifest itself is a decline in service sector spending, which we have been seeing at least through the August numbers, which were the latest ones we had before the shutdown. You know, what tends to happen when you have to worry about things are when people begin to adjust their lifestyles in ways that shouldn't really be adjusted. And by that, I mean, you know, buying a cup of coffee in the morning is not a decision that should really tax most people's brains or that they should really think about if they're feeling good about their job prospects or that they have a job. And what we're seeing is people are pulling back on those kinds of purchases. And when that happens, you know, if you're not buying a cup of coffee, you're not going to buy a car. And so we're beginning to see that roll off on the service sector spending side of things. And yes, maybe people are in the upper income tier are still splurging on certain things, or maybe there's a cohort within that upper income cohort that's still splurging on certain things. But the reality of it is it seems like it's beginning to shift into a kind of a lower growth dynamic. And of course, we can't find any of the data or we don't have the data to know whether or not that, in fact, is happening. Drew, how much of tariffs are a problem, given what we saw today, that there is some leakage in and there may be more coming? It's obviously not what was feared back in April, but how how bad is it, Johnny, as a big man used to say, and Google that if you don't know what he's talking about because he's old enough now that I know, how do I know? Unfortunately, because I am old enough and I'm in debt for the rest of the audience out there in our control room. You know, I do think we're going to see pass through. I think it's going to happen. It's not going to be a full pass through, nor is it going to lead to kind of this kind of, you know, wage price spiral type inflation story. It's going to be a one time adjustment and the Fed should look through it. You know, I was just complains you might, though, you know, what about all the credit card surcharges that I'm now paying for? It seems like everything went up by 3% on top of the 3% inflation rate, because every time I bought my credit card, I have to pay a lot more to kind of just use it. And so I think, you know, once again, it's it's going to be something that people notice and are affected by it. But one of the things that's actually helping people right now is that gas prices are actually extraordinarily low, particularly relative to where they had been. And so we look at gas prices relative to kind of how much you have to work to get there. So how many minutes of your work life does it cost you to buy a gallon of gasoline? And when you look at it that way, it's actually, you know, quite contained and well below where it had been the last couple of years, which is probably helping people continue to spend. All right. We're going to leave it on that note. I know we will be continuing this conversation in the future. Drew Matus, thank you so much, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, of course. Our thanks always to our own Mike McKee, TV and Radio International economics and policy correspondent. Hey, coming up next, Wall Street wary of being burned by the Malay trade again. A lot at stake, too, for Argentineans, the Bloomberg Quicktake. It's coming your way on this Friday. Carol Massar Tim Standard back and we have Bloomberg Businessweek down. Street I'm Alexis Christopher, US. Stocks rallying to records after that weaker than expected inflation report got investors betting the Fed will not only cut interest rates at next week's meeting, but could cut rates at the next couple of meetings. Strong corporate earnings from the likes of Ford, Intel and Procter and Gamble, also lending support. We've got the Dow Industrials up 535 points, a gain of more than 1%. The S&P 500 also up about 1% or 65 points at 6803, its first time crossing over that 6800 mark. The Nasdaq composite racing ahead more than 300 points. Now, all three major indexes on track for record closes, not invited to the party today. Shares of Deckers outdoor tumbling more than 12% to a two year low. The company behind the UGG and HOKA shoe brand served up a disappointing sales forecast. The company also expects consumers to be more cautious as the full effect of tariffs come into focus. The consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton giving back 10%. The company we know relies heavily on government related work. It cut its outlook for the year after posting lower profit and revenue and shares of Applied Materials up about half a percent. The largest U.S. producer of Chipmaking equipment planning to cut 4% of its global workforce as it copes with a sales slowdown and trade turmoil. To recap, all three major indexes in record territory the Dow up 535 points for on demand news 24 hours a day. Subscribe to Bloomberg News now wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Alexis Christopher as that's your Bloomberg business flash. All right, Alexis, thank you so much. Or it's going to be a pivotal moment for the Malay trade and nobody wants to be caught on the wrong side of it. Again, the frantic selling that hammered Argentina's markets after President Javier Malaise party suffered a defeat at the polls last month has left global investors bracing for another potential hit in the wake of the legislative elections on Sunday. He is not Malay that is on the ballot this Sunday, though, Tim, when Argentineans head to the polls with what's at stake and why this election is important for the future of Argentina and what Argentineans think about the interest and level and support from President Trump and the whole Trump administration. This election in story. It is the Bloomberg big tech today. With us is Patrick Gillespie, Bloomberg News Buenos Aires bureau chief. He joins us from Buenos Aires. Patrick, Muller's coalition needs to score more than 34% in the upcoming midterm elections to push through legislation to bolster the economy. Polls show support for him is flagging. Is it true these elections really could go either way at this point? Hey, guys. Well, I think what's really important is that it seems like a done deal that you can secure a third of the seats in the lower house of Congress. That is something that investors are widely expecting. That would help protect Miller's vetos, which have been overturned as the opposition has tried to push through spending bills recently. But what Miller's team has already talked about publicly is that they're not going to get a simple majority, which is what they would need to pass the economic the deep economic reforms on labor and taxes that Miller has promised both voters and investors who are waiting to see how this vote turns out. So it's really going to be something of a make or break moment for Miller's economic agenda. And of course, this $40 billion US rescue package from coming from the Trump administration. If it's not a make but rather a break moment, what does it mean Monday or come Monday when we think about markets and policy or changes in policy out of Argentina? Well, we will definitely be looking at how the sovereign bonds perform as well as the currency. There has been market speculation that the Miller administration has pushed back against Treasury Secretary Scott Best and has also pushed back against it that there would be some overhaul of Argentina's currency policy. Investors have been thinking that this is a necessary change because the peso is widely seen in markets as overvalued. If Miller is not able to secure that one third of seats in the lower house of Congress, that gives him something of a legislative shield and negotiating power with other blocs in Argentina. You could see some a lot of pressure on the peso and on those sovereign bonds and potentially a policy change we are expecting Monday or soon after the vote for me to overhaul his cabinet. His foreign minister already resigned this week. There's a new minister in place. So we expect that a wider change in the cabinet that's supposed to help consolidate power and help me build his coalition. You know, Patrick, we've spent some time this week talking about this $20 billion swap deal this week. And, you know, it's not a monolith by any means, but how would you characterize Argentine support right now coming from the U.S. in the in this in this I mean, this is just how do you characterize it? Well, I think it's a bit ironic in the sense that if you think about beyond the currency swap line, which is $20 billion M.I.A. Campaign is a precedent two years ago on rising Argentina, and now he has the US Treasury buying Argentine pesos. So it's a bit of a turn of the tables. But there's three pillars. There's the currency swap line, the buying of the pesos and the negotiations that are still under way for Wall Street financing of another $20 billion. For me, that are meant to dispel any investor concerns that Argentina can make upcoming debt payments. It's really unprecedented US support for Argentina. But of course, President Trump himself conditioned that support on Middle East Party winning these midterm elections. So then what happens if his party doesn't win the mid-term elections? Right, exactly. So there's been these new conditions introduced that we. Yeah, we have to see. And what exactly is defined as a win? Of course, you could look at the national level, but these results are going to be coming in Sunday night, province by province, and of course, in Buenos Aires province, where a third of Argentina lives, Argentines live. That has overwhelmingly the number, the a huge number of seats. So that'll be a top battleground. And we'll be looking at some of the key interior provinces where Melaye now needs to make up the ground that he's lost because this whole market sell off. And US rescue package came together after Melaye lost the local election in the province of Buenos Aires. So it's a worst case scenario. Of course, the first eyes will be on Scott Bessant and how he reacts and if the support is still in place. You know, Patrick, one of the things I think we've been trying to get our head around, I don't want to come off like an obnoxious American, but it's just why? Why is the US singling out Argentina for support? What do we need to understand about the Argentinian economy or its role in South America? What do we need to understand why this is an important relationship and for the U.S. to provide support here? Well, I think there's two key differences. One is, as Scott Bissonnette called Argentina a systemic ally or something to that effect. His word was systemic. And I think it's statistically hard to make the case in the sense that if the Argentine economy collapses, I mean, Brazil doesn't even sneeze next door, let alone the rest of the region. But when you think about the geopolitical relationship, there's a lot at stake in the sense that Argentina has big lithium, uranium, other rare earths reserves, copper, gold. I could go on. So that could be a key concession from Argentina to the US in exchange for for this financial support. And then, of course, China. China has a space station in Argentina. China has an $18 billion swap line with the Argentine central bank. Scott Besson has made clear that BELAY has to be committed to getting China out of Argentina without explicitly saying what that looks like in real terms. So there's some a lot of geopolitical issues on the table, a lot of sort of strategic interests in terms of natural resources here. But from a statistic or economic perspective, Argentina is not systemic, neither to us nor to the Latin American economy. And I will say the post that the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen, put out, Argentina is a systemic, systemically important U.S. ally in Latin America, and the U.S. Treasury stands ready to do what is needed with it in its mandate to support Argentina. All options for stabilization are on the table. That was on September 22nd. So this is going back to it's a whatever it takes approach to really a mario Draghi style approach by Scott Bessen here. Patrick on that is the is the support from the U.S. I mean, you mentioned rare earths and you mentioned some some strategic elements. But I'm also wondering about just the politics of this and the melee and just the way that he and the way that the folks around him might be ideologically aligned with the Trump administration like they see in him. They see in that as something of a kinship. Absolutely. There's there's a lot of the ideological alignment behind this financial support. Less so than than, say, the economic fundamentals or ties between the two countries. Melaye has been a relentless cheerleader for Donald Trump, and Donald Trump is rewarding him with this financial support now. But I think there's a, you know, a case to make that politically this could be more unpopular than it is financially beneficial in the sense that Argentines are very weary of another. Yeah, say US rescue, whether it's from Washington, whether it's from the US or from the IMF, that usually comes with a lot of concessions and hidden terms that people only find out about much later on. So politically, people are weary of Washington coming to the rescue for Melaye. And and of course, this has had a big ripple effect on Trump. The Has. been beef farmers, cattle ranchers, soy farmers that are very unhappy about the US providing so much financial support, especially during a US federal shutdown. So I think there's a lot on the line. Yeah, certainly for President Harvey Milk, but also as well for the Trump administration and in particular Secretary Scott. I mean, the cards are stacked in a in a tough way. I mean, a deep recession early last year. We've seen a tepid recovery in Argentina. And I'm looking at, you know, your team and and the reporting that's gone at it says apart from some inflows into Argentina, Argentina's most lucrative industries agriculture, mining, oil and gas. Foreign investment has been almost non-existent. If anything, multinationals have been selling off assets and repatriating money. So HSBC, P&G, Procter Gamble, Mercedes-Benz and Telefonica, among others. I mean, it's a really tough situation. So people on the ground kind of mixed in terms of whether or not president malaise policies are going to make a difference. And if not, then, yeah, what is kind of the policies that will go into effect? Melaye has not delivered on his pledges to provide robust economic growth in Argentina. He has brought Argentina back from the brink. Annual inflation was near 300%. It's now 30%. Poverty is also at its lowest level in several years. But that's come at the cost of significant austerity policies. Electricity bills in Argentina have quadrupled in the last two years under me. The job market is still well below the levels it was when he came into office. Retail sales are down for the last six months in a row. So clearly, from a consumer perspective, from unemployment perspective, the economy hasn't delivered on the the policies that Millais did. And I think there's a lot of a lot of frustration with the corruption scandals that he's faced. He's had three corruption scandals, both involving him, his sister and his top candidate in these midterms. And that candidate had to drop out of the race. They all, of course, deny any wrongdoing, but it's dismantled an image of an outsider who's here to say drain the swamp. So from an economic policy perspective, he hasn't delivered on the growth. And the corruption scandals have certainly put a big dent in his image. How is the opposition using that to their advantage in Sunday's election? Well, they've they're of course, they're using a, I think, a multi-prong strategy. They have come out with strategic, strategically timed corruption scandals. They were the ones who leaked this information to the public. And, of course, the the harsh austerity and the unemployment the people are dealing with has only sort of revived a bit of nostalgia among a certain part of the swing population, swing voters in Argentina that the previous government or Peronist movement wasn't so bad. So we've we've seen some of the parents leaders who, again, I should stress, are not on the ballot. Some of their popularity ratings have gone up as Malays have gone down. We can't speak about election polls at this stage, but you clearly can tell that the corruption scandals that were strategically time by the opposition have had the intended effect of denting him right now. All right, Patrick, thank you so much. Patrick Gillespie. He's Bloomberg News Buenos Aires bureau chief. Check out our Bloomberg Quicktake story. It's on the Bloomberg terminal at Bloomberg.com. Slash big tech headline crossing Axios reporting the United States. The USDA says it will not use emergency funds for food stamps. We know with the shutdown, those benefits have run out. It's 240 on Wall Street. I'm Alexis Christoph for us. And investors are celebrating that cooler than expected inflation report for September betting that report is going to pave the way for the Fed to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average up 534 points now at a record high. The S&P 500 gaining 65. The NASDAQ composite up nearly 300. All of the index indexes are actually at record highs right now. General Dynamics stock in the news, the aerospace and defense company posting higher quarterly revenue and profit driven by increased orders for business jets. Shares of General Dynamics up 1.3%. We've got Gold's recent record rally helping Newmont Mining's third quarter sales and profits beat the street, but shares are coming under pressure today after its guidance disappointed Newmont Mining down 4% and shares of the Boston Beer Company are higher today after the maker of the Sam Adams and Truly Brands raised its profit guidance for the year as it sees fewer headwinds from tariffs. Boston Beer up 2.6%. By the way, Sam Adams has a new beer. It's so strong it's illegal to buy in 15 states. Utopias 2025 is called an extreme beer with a 30% alcohol volume. It also comes with an extreme price 240 bucks for a 12 and a half ounce bottle for on demand news 24 hours a day. Subscribe to Bloomberg News now wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Alexis Christopherson. That's your Bloomberg business? Flash Yeah, with a name like Utopian or whatever. Like, yeah, okay, you're getting a little heady. Yeah, I'm ready, I'm ready. I'm ready for a lot of things this Friday. Interesting couple of weeks we've talked about Zions, a couple of regional banks, Zions tumbling Last week. The firm said it was the victim of fraud in loans to funds that invest in distressed commercial mortgages after the collapse of subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings, an auto parts supplier First Brands group. Some investors said they are becoming concerned about cracks in the credit market. And then, of course, there was Antara JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. You can't forget what he said last week, that there's really just one cockroach which some private credit executives saw as a barb aimed at them. Blue Owl Capital co-CEO Marc Lipschultz responded by saying banks should look at their own books. All right. We've got a view on the distressed market, a specific area. Back with us is Amy Rubenstein. She's CEO of Clear Investment Group. It's Chicago based, specializing in opportunistic real estate investments, specifically in the distressed midsize multifamily sector in most secondary and tertiary markets around the United States. She is lucky for us in studio. How are you? I'm great. Good to be back here. Well, it's great to have you back here. And I'm just curious, big picture, the environment. There's been a lot of stuff over the last week. Tell us about the distressed market. Certainly the area that you play in, Are there more distress situations, opportunities out there for you? Yeah, there's a ton of opportunity right now. There are ways. Or is there more than there have? I will say when we're in a markets, we see more distress right now. We have seen a lot of distress over the last couple of years and continue to see it, although I think we might have bounced off the bottom and might be starting to come back. Why do you think that? Well, I think that the drop in the interest rate that we recently had was a little bit helpful. That was only 25 basis points. But what we've really been seeing is that bank spreads are coming in as well. So while we only saw a 25 basis point drop from the Fed, we're really feeling something more like a 100 basis point drop based on the fact that banks are coming in. That makes it some situations not so stressful. It doesn't, does it? It doesn't help people that have existing guys that might have gone up on interest rates. But as people are refinancing, we are finding a better lending environment than we were about a year ago. So talk to us about a deal that you've recently done. So we we are doing a deal right now that we're getting a spread. We're actually assuming a loan that is being purchased at debt. So we're seeing a lot of that in the market right now where you do see distress from people and people are walking away from their equity in order to save their personal guarantees. And this is more than you saw maybe three months ago, six months ago happens to be that we've had our last five deals that we've looked at have had loans where we're assuming a loan at debt and were and the sellers walking away, losing all of their equity. Why are sellers walking away? Well, what are they not what are they not able to do that then you can come in and do. So. What this particular lender is doing for us is dropping that interest rate. The lender doesn't want to lose any of their equity in this brochure, so they instead are saying, all right, we know that their things were a little bit off. We know that interest rates were high and we know that that seller or that owner was struggling. Here we have a new borrower coming in who's going to be solid, who's going to maintain the integrity of our investment. Let's. Give them a little break for a little while so they can get through this period. Are lenders doing that without a transaction going through? Could that seller have gone to the lender and said, look, we can't handle this rate? Can we renegotiate so then you don't have to bring someone new and you know us? I do think that happens as well. Okay. So, yes, I think that's a possibility. And I think that's something that borrowers need to ask for. And I think when they do ask, they're often able to negotiate something with their lender. Amy, how many of these deals have some kind of private credit in them as well? Or is it separate? So I think that is the reason that spreads have come in, because private debt really flooded the markets. And while banks took a step back, I would say over the last couple of years, banks kind of pulled back waiting to see how the market was going. And then all of this private debt flooded the market, which is what really caused when banks wanted to come back in the beginning of 2025, they started to enter the market and they saw more competition than they had before. And so then what happened is they started to bring in their spreads. And that's what brings us to have that feel of a much lower interest rate than just that 25 basis points. So give us an idea. You do work in multifamily. Give us an idea of the types of properties or the regional variations where maybe these deals are happening. Sure. We have a deal under contract right now in Saint Louis, a deal under contract right now in Tuscaloosa. So we're talking about, you know, those are secondary and tertiary markets. We're also in D.C. so it's a primary market. So it really depends on where we're finding the right deal. Where are you not seeing deals because the market is so good. So some of the places we won't buy are places that got a little bit overinflated. So some of those growth markets that are now starting to show some. Austin, Texas. Sure. Austin, Nashville, South Carolina. Yeah, absolutely. What about California? There's a lot of questions about the future governor, who that is a lot of questions about regulations and red tape. Sure. During the next administration. Absolutely. We tend to stay away from California right now because we just don't get cash flow there. So that ends up being an appreciation market. And so we never really find that that cash flow to be able to go into that market. So would you go as far as to say, you know, what we've seen over the past few months, in just the past week that, you know, tricolor first brands, I mean, there have been knock on effects when it comes to financing as a result of this or no. As a result of well, any of the real estate financing deals have what we have seen with these and nervousness within the credit market. Has it had an impact? No, I actually think that we are seeing enough money in the market to be lending. So I don't see that there's an issue of of borrowing. I see that there are fundamentals that are still strong, although even in September, I'm sure everyone's kind of watching this drop in rental rates. Right. September was at first month where we really saw a big drop, I think 30 basis points in just that month alone. And if you kind of pull it apart and look at it, what's causing this? If you dissect it, you're getting about half about 50 basis points drop in lifestyle renters. So renters who are choosing between homeownership and renting. And that probably is coming from people wanting to go back into the home market. You're only getting about ten basis points of drop in renters by necessity. So you got to dissect that number. How are delinquencies with tenants right now? That's an interesting question. We have seen that delinquencies and evictions has been a higher trend than usual, but that hasn't been just as a recent. We've seen that over the last couple of years. So that hasn't changed at all in the last six months or so. I haven't seen it in the last six months that that's growing. It definitely is a trend that I think it started post-COVID. Who's struggling? Who are those people in those properties? Just got about 30 or 40 seconds. Yeah, well, you know, the rents are staying stronger in these C-class assets, but I think it's also that lower income zone that is struggling more than the higher brackets. Are you talking recession at all or like or just. No. No. We're still seeing things being very strong as far as employment and still seeing tenants come in that have qualifications to rent. Well, listen, you're the perfect person to check in considering this environment. In the conversations we've had over the last week. And we thank you so much for coming in studio. Thanks for having me. Yeah, great to have you here. Abby Rubenstein, she's CEO of Clear Investment Group, joining us right here in studio when we come back. A check on the trading day. We've talked about the S&P at a record, but we're going to get into some of the stocks on the move this Friday session. A lot of them are moving higher today, 9/10 of 1% to the upside right now on the S&P 500. The NASDAQ composite up 1.3%. The Dow up 530 points. That's 1.1%. You're listening to and watching Bloomberg Businessweek Daily. This is Bloomberg Businessweek Daily with Carol Massar and Tim Stead event on Bloomberg Radio and Television. All right, everybody, we're coming up on the last hour of trading here on this friday. Carol Massar tim stanwick live here at bloomberg headquarters in new york city. We're up about 9/10 of a percent on the s&p 500 a day where the s&p has hit a record. Dow jones industrial average up 1.2%. Nasdaq 100 same percentage gain as the Dow up about 1.2%. Yeah, pretty much hover near our highs of the session. Yeah, it's somewhat broad based. 35 stocks moving higher. You do have let's see, one, two, three, seven of the industry groups in the green right now on the S&P 500. But energy lagging down 8/10 of 1%. I'm Carol Massar along with tim stanwick. Hey, let's get to some stocks on the move today. With us is bloomberg tv markets correspondent nora melinda. Nora, good to have you here. Where shall we start? Yes, happy friday. I'm looking at shares of ford. This is the biggest gainer in the S&P 500 right now. And that's ticker F keeping it easy for us. They're seeing its best day in almost four years. This is a company really signaling that it will largely bounce back next year from a devastating fire that we did see at one of the key suppliers, that of aluminum for its F-150 pickup truck. Of course, the company also talking about a profit beat here and a boost to production more generally. So we are seeing shares up for double digit gains right now. But if you look on a year to day basis, shares of Ford are up about 41%. So it looks like it's a great day to be a Ford shareholder today. Listen, it's a great interview, too, by our own team, Matt Miller and Romaine Bostick, with the Ford CEO, Jim Farley. I highly recommend every check it out on the Bloomberg I mean, Ford ticker is now up 40% here in 2025. Outperformance in a big way. Yeah, what a year. It's an easy path, though. We're kind of doing planes, trains and automobiles today. We are. Let's go to the air and see what's going on. Yeah, not a pretty picture here, at least for Alaska Air. That's ticker ALK. We're seeing shares falling for the lowest level since April, down as much as 6.7%. And this is after it reported a worse than expected third quarter results. But not only that, they also canceled hundreds of flights, this due to an outage. And we know that this is the second outage that the company has dealt with in terms of an I.T. glitch in the past three months. So, of course, you are seeing the street really reacting to this, Shares down about 5.8% right now as we speak. But year to date, stock is down about 32%. Don't unplug that surge protector. You know, just don't do it. Don't do it. The answer here, it happens. You would like to see it. Come on, guys, Be careful. It's not a good thing. Not a good thing. Let's go to I got to say, I love my eggs. Look, Hulk is too. I know. I don't have. Oh, you love your audience, but they're not part of this company. They're not yet. I'm sorry. No, no, no, no. It is a separate publicly traded company. Completely separate. Right. So Deckers, Deckers, ticker deck desk, we're seeing shares down on pace to close at the lowest level in almost two years, falling as much as 15%. This is because the company reported a weak 2026 sales forecast. We were even seeing, of course, we know this is the owner of Uggs and Coca, as you mentioned here. But we are seeing peer on hold in which you called out just a bit ago falling as well in sympathy. But analysts are really saying in terms of deckers here, that the outlook may be conservative, particularly coming from management here. They're saying that this reflects management's cautious view on U.S. consumer spending amid tariff driven price hikes. So not that great right now. I mean, especially year to date. If you look at shares of Decker down 56%, I'm looking at TD Cowen and they cut their price target on the stock. They still kept their buy rating but cut the price target to 124 share from 120. That was Needham. He said this is no one's I don't get that downgrade you know price cuts from Barclays, Needham, Bernstein Telsey Raymond James a lot all today. Yeah well you know I heard somebody talk about that with Uggs. Yes, there's several pairs at my home. My daughter had them when she's little. They're so great for little kids because you just slide them on. Although I will say that a lot of pediatricians are like, make sure you, you know, give your kids real shoes with hard bottoms because it's much better for their feet. Having said that, that they were saying that, you know, they become so seasonal in terms of whether that's fair and that when they did, I think was it UGG sneakers that they just were really popular so that that maybe their product mix they've got to kind of play around with. Yeah I heard they're comfy though I never owned a pair but that's what I've been told. A lady gladiator. Gladiator, gladiator sandals, you know what I mean? Uggs. Gladiators are the ones that you like. You tie up your leg and they're like, they wrap around. Yeah. Not for, like, the gladiators. They're. I'm using gladiators. And are you not entertained? Look at their feet. Okay. Just the sandals. Okay. Just saying. Making your recommendation normal. And to. Thank you so much. Check out our Stock Movers podcast. Five minute episodes of the biggest winners and losers in the stock market at any given time. You can find it on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you get your podcasts. And if you are along this market, there are some winners out there for you. The S&P 500 up 1% as we speak. The Nasdaq composite up 1.3%. The Dow up more than 550 points. That's 1.2%. Yeah. And as you said earlier, if you take a look at the S&P 500, about 310 names higher in the trade, 192 to the downside, one unchanged. But we're getting ready to kick off another couple of hours of Bloomberg Businessweek daily and a lot coming at you, including what the heck is going on between us and China when it comes to China? Well, that to me really can be another really important trading partner. Yeah. Wow. There's this ad we're going to show part of it. Yeah. There's the premier of Ottawa Bird. Yeah, that's actually coming in Ontario. Excuse me. Yeah. Coming out and saying that, hey, we're going to stop running this ad on Monday. On Monday, it's. Oh, wackadoo, wackadoo. We're going to get into that in just a moment. Hey, if you're watching on TV, because it's coming your way in just a moment, Tim and I continuing right here on Bloomberg Businessweek daily.
Soft September CPI Bolsters Calls for More Fed Cuts | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 10/24/2025
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Transcript
This is Bloomberg Businessweek Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance and tech news as it happens, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily with Carol Massar and Tim Stanek back live on Bloomberg Radio, television, YouTube and Bloomberg Originals. Definitely Friday here at Bloomberg. Why do you say so? Why do you say that? Get insights from our producer, Ari. You're given himself. I'm never given SAS. I don't give SAS. I just get SAS. All right. It is Friday, October 24th, 2025. I feel like October was like you just flying past us at the S&P 500 hitting a high today. Yep. 1% on the S&P. Right now, the NASDAQ composite up a 1.3%. We're going to have much more on the trade with Alexis Christoph for us in just a minute. But a cooler than estimated inflation print that supports the Fed cutting rates. We're all in on that. Michael. Mickey is here. We're going to speak to him in just a minute. Yeah, pressures on Mike. We were talking about the data and the Fed policy. We're also going to check in with Katie Kaminsky laid out for simplex we were talk fed to with her treasury trade. A lot coming your way. Drew Matt is chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, joining us on the k-shaped economy and how the consumer is not okay. I love this. We're going to dig into that. Also, in the shadow of regional banking concerns over real estate, we get into opportunistic real estate investments in the distressed sector. We do that with the CEO of clear investment groups. As so much coming your way, do not go anywhere. Stay with us on this Friday. First up, let's get a check on the trade and the rally underway with Alexis Christopherson. Thanks, Carol and Tim. That cooler than expected inflation report has ignited a powerful rally on Wall Street. Investors betting the report paves the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average up better than 1%. Now it's up 530 points at 47000 to 64. The S&P 500 up 64 points above 6800. That's a record high. The Nasdaq composite gaining nearly 300 points, a game there of one and a third percent. Procter and Gamble reporting fiscal first quarter earnings and revenue that beat analysts estimates despite higher costs from tariffs. Results getting a boost from strong demand for its beauty and grooming products. P&G stock up now 6/10 of 1% and shares of Advanced Micro Devices jumping here on a report that IBM can use the company's chips to run certain quantum computing algorithms. IBM plans to launch a quantum computer by 2029, and it announced that partnership with AMD back in August. Shares of AMD up now nearly 7%, and Ford's strong sales pushed the automaker's revenue and operating income well past estimates. Investors here looking past Ford's warning that a fire at an aluminum factory will dent fourth quarter profits. Shares of Ford driving ahead nearly 13%. The New York Knicks sent Zoran Mamdani the frontrunner in next month's mayoral election a cease and desist order for the use of the team's iconic logo. In his campaign ad, Mamdani ran an ad during the home opener on Wednesday that ended by flashing the team's blue and orange basketball logo with Zoran in place of Knicks for On Demand news 24 hours a day. Subscribe to Bloomberg News now wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Alexis Christophe Riss. That's a Bloomberg business Flash Don't mess with the Knicks. Tim and Carol. No. Oops, indeed. That's important. IP That's for sure. All right, Alexis, thank you so much. Yes, we are in a U.S. government shutdown. It's now in its fourth week. Is it 24, 24 days, I believe, Mike, is that right? 24, 24, 24 days. Oh, counting we are. Well, I'm trying to, but sometimes I forget what was the weirdest thing. It just feels like nobody cares. But anyway, we should point out, though, in the absence of a lot of official data from the U.S. government, we did get a highly anticipated read on inflation today. It's a bit of a welcome surprise to him. Yeah, that's particularly for several policymakers who are leery of cutting rates a further here at the data and the market and the Fed implications. We got Bloomberg TV and Radio International economics and policy correspondent Michael McKee. Isn't it kind of wild, though, we're in this shutdown like in the past when we've covered it, our coverage shutdowns were all over it nonstop. And it's just the weirdest thing. Well, yesterday, the president tore down half the White House. So I know it's kind of hard to I know know what to focus on these days. The economy is chugging along, which is probably one reason that we're not seeing as much focus on it, because people are still we're not seeing big layoffs yet, although the number of layoff announcements came this week and people are still there, incomes are coming in, There's still spending. If if things continue to weaken, then it'll become much more of an issue. And then we want to talk about an inflation report, too, as well. We've also got another guest with us. Kaminski is joining us. She's chief research strategist and portfolio manager with Alfa Simplex Group. She joins us from Boston. Mike, here in the studio. Mike, let's go back to the inflationary print, though, and really the focus of it. Look, we don't know if even we're going to get one for this month. We don't know. Or do we know If we don't, We don't know. The White House suggested that we wouldn't, but but it's not definitive. It's not definitive. Why did we get one for last month? Social Security. It's because of the cost of living increase. The cost of living increases. 2.8%, I believe. Yeah, 2.8% calculated based on the average of the third quarter KPIs. So they knew this last one from September to be able to put that out and it legally has to go out by the 1st of November. So interesting. You got that. So not too worried about inflation right now. No, we're worried about inflation right now. Okay. I thought this was a softer print. It was a slightly softer print. But, you know, what people were watching for was two things. One is it services prices still rising and services prices were still rising, with a big exception for home prices, the way they calculated with an equivalent rent. And it they almost collapsed down, up just a 10th after being up, you know, 4/10, 5/10, 3/10 for some a couple of years. So that could be noise. And it's it is an anomaly and we don't know. But if you take that out, then you have still regularly about the same as we've been with the service prices and then tariffs used car prices dropped a lot during the month. And if you take out autos, you still have core goods prices rising. And we saw things like furniture up 9/10 of a percent, almost a full percentage point and other other tariff goods rising in price. So it does show that that's starting to bleed through. Hey, listen, Katie, we want to bring you into this because, you know, if I look at the Treasury trade over this month, we've seen benchmark benchmark, ten years below 4% is kind of where we are, although we've had some volatility in today's trade. Bring in your read on the inflation print and what it means for the Treasury trade. Well, this is a good question because what we've seen is a little bit of jitters around this potential CPI print. But to be honest, the bond trends haven't moved that much. They've been up and they've been back down. So there doesn't seem to be a lot of movement in that asset class in reaction to the Fed, the movements actually much more in other asset classes, like a strong dollar. And it makes no sense, right, if we're getting mixed race. Exactly. Lower rates, strong dollar. And then the movements today that are consistent with the CPI move or the equity market just, you know, showing relief about some concerns about not getting rate cuts because of the shutdown. I think two might come on in on this, push it to next week. I mean, does that mean that we might not get rate cuts as a result of the shutdown? No, we'll get we'll get the rate cut. The Fed is the folks on surveillance talking about 50 basis points this morning. Not going to happen. Who are you want to get on surveillance? You have to be outrageous if you want to talk to the Trefis machine. His name rhymes with Tom Keene. Yeah. No, we're not going to get 50 basis points. We're get 25. The question is, will we even have any dissents other than Stephen Myron, who's already sort of advertised? He's going to dissent every time unless he gets unless he gets 50 or 75 basis points or whatever. I mean, that's why they sent him there. But the Fed came into this meeting letting the markets believe in a 25 basis point cut. And there's nothing in the inflation data that's going to say, screamingly, you can't do that. So the Fed will just go ahead and and cut rates. But I wouldn't put any bets yet on what's going to happen in December. Katy, you were on surveillance this morning. Tim and I were listening. Were you one of those crazy kids who said 50 basis points? I don't think so. No, definitely not. I'd say I was surprised, though, because I think the numbers did come in a little bit. I thought they'd come in as expected. So coming in a little better than expected definitely accelerated some of the trends that we're seeing. I do think it kind of relieve the market from concerns. I think the bigger shocks would be if you had any sort of shift in policy. So the less likelihood of a shift in policy is what has kind of soothe the markets right now. There an interesting story in the Bloomberg that caught my attention. I'm curious what you guys think about this. The bond markets movements have been suggesting a U.S. downturn for three years, since three month Treasury yields first pushed above ten year ones are right there. In this notes, the yield curve is predictive. Power may be sounding a false alarm this time. This is from Campbell Harvey. Due to factors such as massive fiscal spending and healthy finances of consumers and corporations. Do you agree, Katie? I would have to say it is very contextual because when you look at the inverted yield curve over different periods of time, you know, I think some of the potential inflation and other issues with policy is just kind of not necessarily means that there is a recession right away. So I think it's been sort of a false signal during this market environment. Yeah. We should mention that Campbell Harvey is the Duke professor who came up with the idea of the inverted yield curve signaling recession. And I think there's been general consensus at the Fed and among economists since we went through almost since we went through the great financial crisis. But certainly coming out of COVID, that it's not reliable now for a whole host of reasons. So ignore it. Ignore it. Yeah. Hey, Mike, we're going to be speaking with Drew Matus over at MetLife Investment Management in just a minute about the consumer prepping for that conversation and like Lay lay the groundwork here. How is the consumer doing? Well, I think you advertise it as the k-shaped economy or not. That explains kind of where we are with the consumer. But guess what? As we'll hear from Drew, we kind of argues that the case that the Top end isn't doing as well as people think. Well, I think the Top End is doing just fine, because when you get to the higher top end, you're making all your money off of interest and dividends and the stock market just keeps going up and up and up. It's the people who are on fixed income and low wages who are struggling now because inflation is still going up and they're there. They're trying to make ends meet and finding it harder and harder. If you go to the grocery store lately to buy hamburger or something like that. So you have this bifurcation. And the question is how long can people hang out before they start pulling back on spending? And there's anecdotal evidence that they're starting to pull back in some areas already. Then if we get any layoffs, as some of these companies are seeing. P&G today had, you know, good, good earnings. But oh, yeah, by the way, we're going to get rid of 1800 people. Hey, Katie, I want to go back to just one, you know, about the idea of what we're seeing in equity markets versus bond markets versus the dollar strength. I mean, I'm trying to, you know, gold, silver rally then more recently dropping back to the market metrics fit together. Makes sense. They tell one story or no. And if not, then what does that mean? So this is a good question. I think for me, the question has been, you know, it's been a growth story in equities having good GDP numbers. So you're seeing that very strong equity trend. But coupled with that, seeing also very strong gold and a weaker dollar has made me feel a little nervous about that. You know, there's a chance that we might have an overstimulation, So low rates, high growth and you kind of have inflation potential. I think today's print is helpful in the short term, but those are the themes that I'm seeing where there's sort of a hedge out there against, you know, things look good, but, you know, we need to proceed with caution. We could have inflation. We may have issues, especially with the weaker dollar. So this firm dollar is also kind of interesting to me. I think probably the most interesting recently. All right. Great stuff. Great. Where we can do a double dip with Katie Kominski on this morning. On this afternoon. She's chief research strategist, portfolio manager with Alpha Simplex Group. Hey, we're going to stay on this. Mike's going to stay with us. We want to bring your attention to something that Jp morgan's Asset Management's chief global strategist David Kelly said this morning to you on BTV on surveillance, talked about the Fed inflation and the K-shaped economy. I think the Fed is going to keep on kind of cutting rates is generally a better than expected report. But I think what it really shows is we have a k-shaped economy and it's sort of a k-shaped CPI report. It is clear that mainstream retailers don't believe they can pass on the tariff increases right now. And that's what's making this inflation rate a little bit tamer than people feared. Want to bring in, of course, that was Jp morgan's David Kelley earlier today. But right now I want to add to the mix. The senior economist actually was a former senior economist at Lehman Brothers. We've been talking to him for a long time. We're talking about Drew Mattis. He's the chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, joining us from New Jersey. Drew, your recent know caught the attention of our tell you, Terrelle, about how the consumer is not okay. Walk us through that. Well, there is a k-shaped recovery or a consumer. The upper end is doing reasonably well. But the question is always kind of how what's the change looks like. And the change for the upper end consumer is beginning to show signs of stress. Now, whether that's because a lot of the federal workers would fall in that hundred thousand plus category or whether it's something else, what we are seeing is that upper income consumers are increasingly saying that their real incomes are expected to decline over the next year, and their job separation anxiety is actually quite high, particularly relative to kind of lower income cohorts, probably because a lot of the jobs that had been being created were actually kind of, you know, health care and kind of other jobs that in many cases tend to be, you know, kind of lower income side of things. And so I think, yes, they're doing fine for now, but there are signs of stress and ignoring them is something that can lead to trouble. I got to tell you, Drew, I see that anecdotally right now with people looking for jobs who have been making good money and got laid off and, you know, been looking for jobs for months at this point. When do we if we haven't already, how does that then manifest in data? And we're not necessarily getting it from the government, but how does that manifest in data that investors can react to, Drew? Well, I think the one way it will manifest itself is a decline in service sector spending, which we have been seeing at least through the August numbers, which were the latest ones we had before the shutdown. You know, what tends to happen when you have to worry about things are when people begin to adjust their lifestyles in ways that shouldn't really be adjusted. And by that, I mean, you know, buying a cup of coffee in the morning is not a decision that should really tax most people's brains or that they should really think about if they're feeling good about their job prospects or that they have a job. And what we're seeing is people are pulling back on those kinds of purchases. And when that happens, you know, if you're not buying a cup of coffee, you're not going to buy a car. And so we're beginning to see that roll off on the service sector spending side of things. And yes, maybe people are in the upper income tier are still splurging on certain things, or maybe there's a cohort within that upper income cohort that's still splurging on certain things. But the reality of it is it seems like it's beginning to shift into a kind of a lower growth dynamic. And of course, we can't find any of the data or we don't have the data to know whether or not that, in fact, is happening. Drew, how much of tariffs are a problem, given what we saw today, that there is some leakage in and there may be more coming? It's obviously not what was feared back in April, but how how bad is it, Johnny, as a big man used to say, and Google that if you don't know what he's talking about because he's old enough now that I know, how do I know? Unfortunately, because I am old enough and I'm in debt for the rest of the audience out there in our control room. You know, I do think we're going to see pass through. I think it's going to happen. It's not going to be a full pass through, nor is it going to lead to kind of this kind of, you know, wage price spiral type inflation story. It's going to be a one time adjustment and the Fed should look through it. You know, I was just complains you might, though, you know, what about all the credit card surcharges that I'm now paying for? It seems like everything went up by 3% on top of the 3% inflation rate, because every time I bought my credit card, I have to pay a lot more to kind of just use it. And so I think, you know, once again, it's it's going to be something that people notice and are affected by it. But one of the things that's actually helping people right now is that gas prices are actually extraordinarily low, particularly relative to where they had been. And so we look at gas prices relative to kind of how much you have to work to get there. So how many minutes of your work life does it cost you to buy a gallon of gasoline? And when you look at it that way, it's actually, you know, quite contained and well below where it had been the last couple of years, which is probably helping people continue to spend. All right. We're going to leave it on that note. I know we will be continuing this conversation in the future. Drew Matus, thank you so much, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, of course. Our thanks always to our own Mike McKee, TV and Radio International economics and policy correspondent. Hey, coming up next, Wall Street wary of being burned by the Malay trade again. A lot at stake, too, for Argentineans, the Bloomberg Quicktake. It's coming your way on this Friday. Carol Massar Tim Standard back and we have Bloomberg Businessweek down. Street I'm Alexis Christopher, US. Stocks rallying to records after that weaker than expected inflation report got investors betting the Fed will not only cut interest rates at next week's meeting, but could cut rates at the next couple of meetings. Strong corporate earnings from the likes of Ford, Intel and Procter and Gamble, also lending support. We've got the Dow Industrials up 535 points, a gain of more than 1%. The S&P 500 also up about 1% or 65 points at 6803, its first time crossing over that 6800 mark. The Nasdaq composite racing ahead more than 300 points. Now, all three major indexes on track for record closes, not invited to the party today. Shares of Deckers outdoor tumbling more than 12% to a two year low. The company behind the UGG and HOKA shoe brand served up a disappointing sales forecast. The company also expects consumers to be more cautious as the full effect of tariffs come into focus. The consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton giving back 10%. The company we know relies heavily on government related work. It cut its outlook for the year after posting lower profit and revenue and shares of Applied Materials up about half a percent. The largest U.S. producer of Chipmaking equipment planning to cut 4% of its global workforce as it copes with a sales slowdown and trade turmoil. To recap, all three major indexes in record territory the Dow up 535 points for on demand news 24 hours a day. Subscribe to Bloomberg News now wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Alexis Christopher as that's your Bloomberg business flash. All right, Alexis, thank you so much. Or it's going to be a pivotal moment for the Malay trade and nobody wants to be caught on the wrong side of it. Again, the frantic selling that hammered Argentina's markets after President Javier Malaise party suffered a defeat at the polls last month has left global investors bracing for another potential hit in the wake of the legislative elections on Sunday. He is not Malay that is on the ballot this Sunday, though, Tim, when Argentineans head to the polls with what's at stake and why this election is important for the future of Argentina and what Argentineans think about the interest and level and support from President Trump and the whole Trump administration. This election in story. It is the Bloomberg big tech today. With us is Patrick Gillespie, Bloomberg News Buenos Aires bureau chief. He joins us from Buenos Aires. Patrick, Muller's coalition needs to score more than 34% in the upcoming midterm elections to push through legislation to bolster the economy. Polls show support for him is flagging. Is it true these elections really could go either way at this point? Hey, guys. Well, I think what's really important is that it seems like a done deal that you can secure a third of the seats in the lower house of Congress. That is something that investors are widely expecting. That would help protect Miller's vetos, which have been overturned as the opposition has tried to push through spending bills recently. But what Miller's team has already talked about publicly is that they're not going to get a simple majority, which is what they would need to pass the economic the deep economic reforms on labor and taxes that Miller has promised both voters and investors who are waiting to see how this vote turns out. So it's really going to be something of a make or break moment for Miller's economic agenda. And of course, this $40 billion US rescue package from coming from the Trump administration. If it's not a make but rather a break moment, what does it mean Monday or come Monday when we think about markets and policy or changes in policy out of Argentina? Well, we will definitely be looking at how the sovereign bonds perform as well as the currency. There has been market speculation that the Miller administration has pushed back against Treasury Secretary Scott Best and has also pushed back against it that there would be some overhaul of Argentina's currency policy. Investors have been thinking that this is a necessary change because the peso is widely seen in markets as overvalued. If Miller is not able to secure that one third of seats in the lower house of Congress, that gives him something of a legislative shield and negotiating power with other blocs in Argentina. You could see some a lot of pressure on the peso and on those sovereign bonds and potentially a policy change we are expecting Monday or soon after the vote for me to overhaul his cabinet. His foreign minister already resigned this week. There's a new minister in place. So we expect that a wider change in the cabinet that's supposed to help consolidate power and help me build his coalition. You know, Patrick, we've spent some time this week talking about this $20 billion swap deal this week. And, you know, it's not a monolith by any means, but how would you characterize Argentine support right now coming from the U.S. in the in this in this I mean, this is just how do you characterize it? Well, I think it's a bit ironic in the sense that if you think about beyond the currency swap line, which is $20 billion M.I.A. Campaign is a precedent two years ago on rising Argentina, and now he has the US Treasury buying Argentine pesos. So it's a bit of a turn of the tables. But there's three pillars. There's the currency swap line, the buying of the pesos and the negotiations that are still under way for Wall Street financing of another $20 billion. For me, that are meant to dispel any investor concerns that Argentina can make upcoming debt payments. It's really unprecedented US support for Argentina. But of course, President Trump himself conditioned that support on Middle East Party winning these midterm elections. So then what happens if his party doesn't win the mid-term elections? Right, exactly. So there's been these new conditions introduced that we. Yeah, we have to see. And what exactly is defined as a win? Of course, you could look at the national level, but these results are going to be coming in Sunday night, province by province, and of course, in Buenos Aires province, where a third of Argentina lives, Argentines live. That has overwhelmingly the number, the a huge number of seats. So that'll be a top battleground. And we'll be looking at some of the key interior provinces where Melaye now needs to make up the ground that he's lost because this whole market sell off. And US rescue package came together after Melaye lost the local election in the province of Buenos Aires. So it's a worst case scenario. Of course, the first eyes will be on Scott Bessant and how he reacts and if the support is still in place. You know, Patrick, one of the things I think we've been trying to get our head around, I don't want to come off like an obnoxious American, but it's just why? Why is the US singling out Argentina for support? What do we need to understand about the Argentinian economy or its role in South America? What do we need to understand why this is an important relationship and for the U.S. to provide support here? Well, I think there's two key differences. One is, as Scott Bissonnette called Argentina a systemic ally or something to that effect. His word was systemic. And I think it's statistically hard to make the case in the sense that if the Argentine economy collapses, I mean, Brazil doesn't even sneeze next door, let alone the rest of the region. But when you think about the geopolitical relationship, there's a lot at stake in the sense that Argentina has big lithium, uranium, other rare earths reserves, copper, gold. I could go on. So that could be a key concession from Argentina to the US in exchange for for this financial support. And then, of course, China. China has a space station in Argentina. China has an $18 billion swap line with the Argentine central bank. Scott Besson has made clear that BELAY has to be committed to getting China out of Argentina without explicitly saying what that looks like in real terms. So there's some a lot of geopolitical issues on the table, a lot of sort of strategic interests in terms of natural resources here. But from a statistic or economic perspective, Argentina is not systemic, neither to us nor to the Latin American economy. And I will say the post that the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen, put out, Argentina is a systemic, systemically important U.S. ally in Latin America, and the U.S. Treasury stands ready to do what is needed with it in its mandate to support Argentina. All options for stabilization are on the table. That was on September 22nd. So this is going back to it's a whatever it takes approach to really a mario Draghi style approach by Scott Bessen here. Patrick on that is the is the support from the U.S. I mean, you mentioned rare earths and you mentioned some some strategic elements. But I'm also wondering about just the politics of this and the melee and just the way that he and the way that the folks around him might be ideologically aligned with the Trump administration like they see in him. They see in that as something of a kinship. Absolutely. There's there's a lot of the ideological alignment behind this financial support. Less so than than, say, the economic fundamentals or ties between the two countries. Melaye has been a relentless cheerleader for Donald Trump, and Donald Trump is rewarding him with this financial support now. But I think there's a, you know, a case to make that politically this could be more unpopular than it is financially beneficial in the sense that Argentines are very weary of another. Yeah, say US rescue, whether it's from Washington, whether it's from the US or from the IMF, that usually comes with a lot of concessions and hidden terms that people only find out about much later on. So politically, people are weary of Washington coming to the rescue for Melaye. And and of course, this has had a big ripple effect on Trump. The Has. been beef farmers, cattle ranchers, soy farmers that are very unhappy about the US providing so much financial support, especially during a US federal shutdown. So I think there's a lot on the line. Yeah, certainly for President Harvey Milk, but also as well for the Trump administration and in particular Secretary Scott. I mean, the cards are stacked in a in a tough way. I mean, a deep recession early last year. We've seen a tepid recovery in Argentina. And I'm looking at, you know, your team and and the reporting that's gone at it says apart from some inflows into Argentina, Argentina's most lucrative industries agriculture, mining, oil and gas. Foreign investment has been almost non-existent. If anything, multinationals have been selling off assets and repatriating money. So HSBC, P&G, Procter Gamble, Mercedes-Benz and Telefonica, among others. I mean, it's a really tough situation. So people on the ground kind of mixed in terms of whether or not president malaise policies are going to make a difference. And if not, then, yeah, what is kind of the policies that will go into effect? Melaye has not delivered on his pledges to provide robust economic growth in Argentina. He has brought Argentina back from the brink. Annual inflation was near 300%. It's now 30%. Poverty is also at its lowest level in several years. But that's come at the cost of significant austerity policies. Electricity bills in Argentina have quadrupled in the last two years under me. The job market is still well below the levels it was when he came into office. Retail sales are down for the last six months in a row. So clearly, from a consumer perspective, from unemployment perspective, the economy hasn't delivered on the the policies that Millais did. And I think there's a lot of a lot of frustration with the corruption scandals that he's faced. He's had three corruption scandals, both involving him, his sister and his top candidate in these midterms. And that candidate had to drop out of the race. They all, of course, deny any wrongdoing, but it's dismantled an image of an outsider who's here to say drain the swamp. So from an economic policy perspective, he hasn't delivered on the growth. And the corruption scandals have certainly put a big dent in his image. How is the opposition using that to their advantage in Sunday's election? Well, they've they're of course, they're using a, I think, a multi-prong strategy. They have come out with strategic, strategically timed corruption scandals. They were the ones who leaked this information to the public. And, of course, the the harsh austerity and the unemployment the people are dealing with has only sort of revived a bit of nostalgia among a certain part of the swing population, swing voters in Argentina that the previous government or Peronist movement wasn't so bad. So we've we've seen some of the parents leaders who, again, I should stress, are not on the ballot. Some of their popularity ratings have gone up as Malays have gone down. We can't speak about election polls at this stage, but you clearly can tell that the corruption scandals that were strategically time by the opposition have had the intended effect of denting him right now. All right, Patrick, thank you so much. Patrick Gillespie. He's Bloomberg News Buenos Aires bureau chief. Check out our Bloomberg Quicktake story. It's on the Bloomberg terminal at Bloomberg.com. Slash big tech headline crossing Axios reporting the United States. The USDA says it will not use emergency funds for food stamps. We know with the shutdown, those benefits have run out. It's 240 on Wall Street. I'm Alexis Christoph for us. And investors are celebrating that cooler than expected inflation report for September betting that report is going to pave the way for the Fed to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average up 534 points now at a record high. The S&P 500 gaining 65. The NASDAQ composite up nearly 300. All of the index indexes are actually at record highs right now. General Dynamics stock in the news, the aerospace and defense company posting higher quarterly revenue and profit driven by increased orders for business jets. Shares of General Dynamics up 1.3%. We've got Gold's recent record rally helping Newmont Mining's third quarter sales and profits beat the street, but shares are coming under pressure today after its guidance disappointed Newmont Mining down 4% and shares of the Boston Beer Company are higher today after the maker of the Sam Adams and Truly Brands raised its profit guidance for the year as it sees fewer headwinds from tariffs. Boston Beer up 2.6%. By the way, Sam Adams has a new beer. It's so strong it's illegal to buy in 15 states. Utopias 2025 is called an extreme beer with a 30% alcohol volume. It also comes with an extreme price 240 bucks for a 12 and a half ounce bottle for on demand news 24 hours a day. Subscribe to Bloomberg News now wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Alexis Christopherson. That's your Bloomberg business? Flash Yeah, with a name like Utopian or whatever. Like, yeah, okay, you're getting a little heady. Yeah, I'm ready, I'm ready. I'm ready for a lot of things this Friday. Interesting couple of weeks we've talked about Zions, a couple of regional banks, Zions tumbling Last week. The firm said it was the victim of fraud in loans to funds that invest in distressed commercial mortgages after the collapse of subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings, an auto parts supplier First Brands group. Some investors said they are becoming concerned about cracks in the credit market. And then, of course, there was Antara JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. You can't forget what he said last week, that there's really just one cockroach which some private credit executives saw as a barb aimed at them. Blue Owl Capital co-CEO Marc Lipschultz responded by saying banks should look at their own books. All right. We've got a view on the distressed market, a specific area. Back with us is Amy Rubenstein. She's CEO of Clear Investment Group. It's Chicago based, specializing in opportunistic real estate investments, specifically in the distressed midsize multifamily sector in most secondary and tertiary markets around the United States. She is lucky for us in studio. How are you? I'm great. Good to be back here. Well, it's great to have you back here. And I'm just curious, big picture, the environment. There's been a lot of stuff over the last week. Tell us about the distressed market. Certainly the area that you play in, Are there more distress situations, opportunities out there for you? Yeah, there's a ton of opportunity right now. There are ways. Or is there more than there have? I will say when we're in a markets, we see more distress right now. We have seen a lot of distress over the last couple of years and continue to see it, although I think we might have bounced off the bottom and might be starting to come back. Why do you think that? Well, I think that the drop in the interest rate that we recently had was a little bit helpful. That was only 25 basis points. But what we've really been seeing is that bank spreads are coming in as well. So while we only saw a 25 basis point drop from the Fed, we're really feeling something more like a 100 basis point drop based on the fact that banks are coming in. That makes it some situations not so stressful. It doesn't, does it? It doesn't help people that have existing guys that might have gone up on interest rates. But as people are refinancing, we are finding a better lending environment than we were about a year ago. So talk to us about a deal that you've recently done. So we we are doing a deal right now that we're getting a spread. We're actually assuming a loan that is being purchased at debt. So we're seeing a lot of that in the market right now where you do see distress from people and people are walking away from their equity in order to save their personal guarantees. And this is more than you saw maybe three months ago, six months ago happens to be that we've had our last five deals that we've looked at have had loans where we're assuming a loan at debt and were and the sellers walking away, losing all of their equity. Why are sellers walking away? Well, what are they not what are they not able to do that then you can come in and do. So. What this particular lender is doing for us is dropping that interest rate. The lender doesn't want to lose any of their equity in this brochure, so they instead are saying, all right, we know that their things were a little bit off. We know that interest rates were high and we know that that seller or that owner was struggling. Here we have a new borrower coming in who's going to be solid, who's going to maintain the integrity of our investment. Let's. Give them a little break for a little while so they can get through this period. Are lenders doing that without a transaction going through? Could that seller have gone to the lender and said, look, we can't handle this rate? Can we renegotiate so then you don't have to bring someone new and you know us? I do think that happens as well. Okay. So, yes, I think that's a possibility. And I think that's something that borrowers need to ask for. And I think when they do ask, they're often able to negotiate something with their lender. Amy, how many of these deals have some kind of private credit in them as well? Or is it separate? So I think that is the reason that spreads have come in, because private debt really flooded the markets. And while banks took a step back, I would say over the last couple of years, banks kind of pulled back waiting to see how the market was going. And then all of this private debt flooded the market, which is what really caused when banks wanted to come back in the beginning of 2025, they started to enter the market and they saw more competition than they had before. And so then what happened is they started to bring in their spreads. And that's what brings us to have that feel of a much lower interest rate than just that 25 basis points. So give us an idea. You do work in multifamily. Give us an idea of the types of properties or the regional variations where maybe these deals are happening. Sure. We have a deal under contract right now in Saint Louis, a deal under contract right now in Tuscaloosa. So we're talking about, you know, those are secondary and tertiary markets. We're also in D.C. so it's a primary market. So it really depends on where we're finding the right deal. Where are you not seeing deals because the market is so good. So some of the places we won't buy are places that got a little bit overinflated. So some of those growth markets that are now starting to show some. Austin, Texas. Sure. Austin, Nashville, South Carolina. Yeah, absolutely. What about California? There's a lot of questions about the future governor, who that is a lot of questions about regulations and red tape. Sure. During the next administration. Absolutely. We tend to stay away from California right now because we just don't get cash flow there. So that ends up being an appreciation market. And so we never really find that that cash flow to be able to go into that market. So would you go as far as to say, you know, what we've seen over the past few months, in just the past week that, you know, tricolor first brands, I mean, there have been knock on effects when it comes to financing as a result of this or no. As a result of well, any of the real estate financing deals have what we have seen with these and nervousness within the credit market. Has it had an impact? No, I actually think that we are seeing enough money in the market to be lending. So I don't see that there's an issue of of borrowing. I see that there are fundamentals that are still strong, although even in September, I'm sure everyone's kind of watching this drop in rental rates. Right. September was at first month where we really saw a big drop, I think 30 basis points in just that month alone. And if you kind of pull it apart and look at it, what's causing this? If you dissect it, you're getting about half about 50 basis points drop in lifestyle renters. So renters who are choosing between homeownership and renting. And that probably is coming from people wanting to go back into the home market. You're only getting about ten basis points of drop in renters by necessity. So you got to dissect that number. How are delinquencies with tenants right now? That's an interesting question. We have seen that delinquencies and evictions has been a higher trend than usual, but that hasn't been just as a recent. We've seen that over the last couple of years. So that hasn't changed at all in the last six months or so. I haven't seen it in the last six months that that's growing. It definitely is a trend that I think it started post-COVID. Who's struggling? Who are those people in those properties? Just got about 30 or 40 seconds. Yeah, well, you know, the rents are staying stronger in these C-class assets, but I think it's also that lower income zone that is struggling more than the higher brackets. Are you talking recession at all or like or just. No. No. We're still seeing things being very strong as far as employment and still seeing tenants come in that have qualifications to rent. Well, listen, you're the perfect person to check in considering this environment. In the conversations we've had over the last week. And we thank you so much for coming in studio. Thanks for having me. Yeah, great to have you here. Abby Rubenstein, she's CEO of Clear Investment Group, joining us right here in studio when we come back. A check on the trading day. We've talked about the S&P at a record, but we're going to get into some of the stocks on the move this Friday session. A lot of them are moving higher today, 9/10 of 1% to the upside right now on the S&P 500. The NASDAQ composite up 1.3%. The Dow up 530 points. That's 1.1%. You're listening to and watching Bloomberg Businessweek Daily. This is Bloomberg Businessweek Daily with Carol Massar and Tim Stead event on Bloomberg Radio and Television. All right, everybody, we're coming up on the last hour of trading here on this friday. Carol Massar tim stanwick live here at bloomberg headquarters in new york city. We're up about 9/10 of a percent on the s&p 500 a day where the s&p has hit a record. Dow jones industrial average up 1.2%. Nasdaq 100 same percentage gain as the Dow up about 1.2%. Yeah, pretty much hover near our highs of the session. Yeah, it's somewhat broad based. 35 stocks moving higher. You do have let's see, one, two, three, seven of the industry groups in the green right now on the S&P 500. But energy lagging down 8/10 of 1%. I'm Carol Massar along with tim stanwick. Hey, let's get to some stocks on the move today. With us is bloomberg tv markets correspondent nora melinda. Nora, good to have you here. Where shall we start? Yes, happy friday. I'm looking at shares of ford. This is the biggest gainer in the S&P 500 right now. And that's ticker F keeping it easy for us. They're seeing its best day in almost four years. This is a company really signaling that it will largely bounce back next year from a devastating fire that we did see at one of the key suppliers, that of aluminum for its F-150 pickup truck. Of course, the company also talking about a profit beat here and a boost to production more generally. So we are seeing shares up for double digit gains right now. But if you look on a year to day basis, shares of Ford are up about 41%. So it looks like it's a great day to be a Ford shareholder today. Listen, it's a great interview, too, by our own team, Matt Miller and Romaine Bostick, with the Ford CEO, Jim Farley. I highly recommend every check it out on the Bloomberg I mean, Ford ticker is now up 40% here in 2025. Outperformance in a big way. Yeah, what a year. It's an easy path, though. We're kind of doing planes, trains and automobiles today. We are. Let's go to the air and see what's going on. Yeah, not a pretty picture here, at least for Alaska Air. That's ticker ALK. We're seeing shares falling for the lowest level since April, down as much as 6.7%. And this is after it reported a worse than expected third quarter results. But not only that, they also canceled hundreds of flights, this due to an outage. And we know that this is the second outage that the company has dealt with in terms of an I.T. glitch in the past three months. So, of course, you are seeing the street really reacting to this, Shares down about 5.8% right now as we speak. But year to date, stock is down about 32%. Don't unplug that surge protector. You know, just don't do it. Don't do it. The answer here, it happens. You would like to see it. Come on, guys, Be careful. It's not a good thing. Not a good thing. Let's go to I got to say, I love my eggs. Look, Hulk is too. I know. I don't have. Oh, you love your audience, but they're not part of this company. They're not yet. I'm sorry. No, no, no, no. It is a separate publicly traded company. Completely separate. Right. So Deckers, Deckers, ticker deck desk, we're seeing shares down on pace to close at the lowest level in almost two years, falling as much as 15%. This is because the company reported a weak 2026 sales forecast. We were even seeing, of course, we know this is the owner of Uggs and Coca, as you mentioned here. But we are seeing peer on hold in which you called out just a bit ago falling as well in sympathy. But analysts are really saying in terms of deckers here, that the outlook may be conservative, particularly coming from management here. They're saying that this reflects management's cautious view on U.S. consumer spending amid tariff driven price hikes. So not that great right now. I mean, especially year to date. If you look at shares of Decker down 56%, I'm looking at TD Cowen and they cut their price target on the stock. They still kept their buy rating but cut the price target to 124 share from 120. That was Needham. He said this is no one's I don't get that downgrade you know price cuts from Barclays, Needham, Bernstein Telsey Raymond James a lot all today. Yeah well you know I heard somebody talk about that with Uggs. Yes, there's several pairs at my home. My daughter had them when she's little. They're so great for little kids because you just slide them on. Although I will say that a lot of pediatricians are like, make sure you, you know, give your kids real shoes with hard bottoms because it's much better for their feet. Having said that, that they were saying that, you know, they become so seasonal in terms of whether that's fair and that when they did, I think was it UGG sneakers that they just were really popular so that that maybe their product mix they've got to kind of play around with. Yeah I heard they're comfy though I never owned a pair but that's what I've been told. A lady gladiator. Gladiator, gladiator sandals, you know what I mean? Uggs. Gladiators are the ones that you like. You tie up your leg and they're like, they wrap around. Yeah. Not for, like, the gladiators. They're. I'm using gladiators. And are you not entertained? Look at their feet. Okay. Just the sandals. Okay. Just saying. Making your recommendation normal. And to. Thank you so much. Check out our Stock Movers podcast. Five minute episodes of the biggest winners and losers in the stock market at any given time. You can find it on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you get your podcasts. And if you are along this market, there are some winners out there for you. The S&P 500 up 1% as we speak. The Nasdaq composite up 1.3%. The Dow up more than 550 points. That's 1.2%. Yeah. And as you said earlier, if you take a look at the S&P 500, about 310 names higher in the trade, 192 to the downside, one unchanged. But we're getting ready to kick off another couple of hours of Bloomberg Businessweek daily and a lot coming at you, including what the heck is going on between us and China when it comes to China? Well, that to me really can be another really important trading partner. Yeah. Wow. There's this ad we're going to show part of it. Yeah. There's the premier of Ottawa Bird. Yeah, that's actually coming in Ontario. Excuse me. Yeah. Coming out and saying that, hey, we're going to stop running this ad on Monday. On Monday, it's. Oh, wackadoo, wackadoo. We're going to get into that in just a moment. Hey, if you're watching on TV, because it's coming your way in just a moment, Tim and I continuing right here on Bloomberg Businessweek daily.