SPECIAL REPORT: Silver Price Explodes Above $50/oz — Is It Too Late To Buy In? | Andy Schectman
Summary
Silver Market Dynamics: The podcast discusses the unprecedented backwardation in the silver market, highlighting extreme delivery stress and a significant demand for physical silver over paper promises.
Rehypothecation Concerns: The conversation touches on the issue of rehypothecation, where a single silver bar may be promised to multiple parties, leading to potential market stress when multiple claims are made.
Price and Lease Rate Surge: Silver prices have surged above $50/oz, with lease rates in London jumping to over 39%, indicating urgent demand and depleted inventories.
Market Stress in London: The main stress point is identified in London, with significant delivery stress and margin calls affecting traders unable to cover their positions due to high borrowing costs.
Investment Implications: The discussion suggests a potential structural reset in silver pricing, with long-term projections possibly reaching $96 based on technical analysis, driven by a declining confidence in paper systems.
Physical vs. Paper Silver: There is a growing preference for physical silver as opposed to paper contracts, with significant implications for market liquidity and pricing.
Market Opportunities: Despite the current high prices, the podcast suggests continued investment in silver, emphasizing cost averaging and the potential for future price increases due to systemic market changes.
Gold and Silver Strategy: The podcast advises maintaining a balanced approach between gold and silver investments, highlighting the strategic importance of both metals in the current economic climate.
Transcript
All right, we should be live. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thulful Money, founder and your host. Uh we're here for a special report this morning. Uh in this morning's live stream, folks, um we're going to be talking about the explosion in price that's happened in silver. And I can't think of anybody to discuss that who would be better than Andy Sheckchman who's joining me now. Andy is joining us from outside the US. Uh he is taking time from a trip uh abroad uh to do this live stream with us. So Andy, I can't thank you enough. >> Pleasure is mine, Adam. Glad I can be here. Thanks for having me, buddy. >> Thank you. Thank you. Well, it's sort of Murphy's law, right? You uh you hop on a plane to leave the country and then you have, you know, probably one of the most notable weeks in silver ever. Why don't we start with this? Um >> you have been in this business for a long time, Andy. Um what's your perspective on what we're seeing right now in the silver market? Are there pre is there precedent for this or are we kind of in in new territory here? >> I've never seen anything like this. This is the the term that everyone keeps throwing around is the word backwardation. Backwardation is an an environment that shows extreme delivery stress. Um uh it's unprecedented. This isn't just volatility in my mind. It's the market exposing the shortages of physical silver, the frailty of the paper promises. Um, this is something that um I think is just beginning and there's just far more demand for physical silver than there is um the availability and and the paper system is beginning to show great strains. People have accepted paper promises for a very long time and I I think that's coming to an end. And look, this is decisively decisively bullish for silver and other precious metals. But I think it's beginning to show that the paper promises that this whole western system has been based upon is starting to break. >> Okay. So um paper promises. So we've we've heard the term over the years, those of us who have followed the precious metals sector of um rehypothecation, which is that um there may be a silver bar there in a vault, but um potentially it has been promised to more than one party. And it's fine if if uh only one party at a time asks for it, but if you get multiple parties trying to exert their claim on it, all of a sudden people realize, hey, wait a minute, these bars have been promised to to many people. Is that the type of situation that that we're discovering we're in right now? >> Yeah. Like for example, in London, they have a 140 million ounce float, yet they're trading 600 million ounces a day in contracts that technically are deliverable. What could possibly go wrong? There's over two billion ounces in paper claims out there on a float of 140 million ounces. So that's exactly what it is. Uh it's a situation where the the paper promises this rehypotheation is being called on the map. Um and you can see that look for example the lease rate in silver in London. When when you lease silver in London, it would be something like you want to short a contract. You want to short the price of silver, but you don't have the metal. So, you have to borrow metal through leasing it in order to deliver the metal to short to drive down the price. Normally, that lease rate is somewhere in the neighborhood of a half a percent or 1%. Um, in in October, it's jumped up over 39% to over 39%. >> Wow. Um, and at the same time, we've seen silver rise since August when the lease rate was at about 1% or so, up to $53 here. So, you see the price rising, the lease rates rising. We're seeing the exact same thing in platinum. But, but it's a situation where right now you have the spot market trading well above the futures price. In other words, buyers are very desperate for immediate delivery. And it's very rare to see this Adam men silver. It's very rare. It signals urgent demand, depleted inventories, and really a systemic shortage of deliverable bars. And that's all because of rehypothecation. In other words, it's getting called under the carpet. >> Okay. And and where is this shortage really manifesting most? Is it in London? >> Absolutely, it is. I mean, you're seeing delivery stress on on that is exacerbating it on Comx. We've already seen 16.5 million ounces delivered in Kulix, adding to the limited vault supplies, but but yes, the the the the main stress is in London right now and um much more so than than on Comx. Uh and and really it is in my mind the epicenter of where all of this could really get into some serious problems where you're beginning to see margin calls for traders out there who are receiving a margin call because the price is going against their short position and the lease rate and the borrowing costs are so high that they're not able to get the silver to cover their position. And that's when things begin to get very very very interesting. What it really tells us is that buyers aren't just rolling over their contracts like they used to. They're standing for delivery. They're demanding real metal. And these delivery numbers are well above normal. So, I guess if you could encapsulate it easily, it's that the rush for gold and silver is real. It's intensifying. And markets just aren't trading paper contracts right now. The people want the real metal in hand. And in a world where paper contracts are vastly overstating the supply, that becomes a problem. >> Okay. So, we've talked in your previous appearances about these very high delivery rates and um uh you know, you'd suspected that it might even be sovereign players that are trying to beef up their stores at the physical metal. Um once things get really tight like this, right, and people start realizing, oh, you know, there's maybe not enough metal to really go around to satisfy these contracts, does it then potentially fall into like a vicious cycle, sort of like a run on a bank, where people say, oh my gosh, this is tighter than I thought. Then give me what I can get now. And then that places even more stress on inventories. And then you again potentially have the equivalent of a run of the bank. >> Yeah, absolutely. The short-term implication would be liquidations and survival driven selling can trigger volatility. That's the short term. Even sharp pullbacks. Medium-term as far as I'm concerned is that once this forced selling ends, the physical scarcity starts to dominate and silver sustains its higher prices $50 plus. But long term, if confidence in this paper system collapses like we're seeing, a structural reset could start to repric silver. That's what I'm seeing $7500. And and I say that to you and that's that's not pie in the sky because if you take the 45 year cup and handle that goes like this. The way technical analysis works is the top of the cup 1980. The bottom of the cup the early 90s and again back up to 2011 again which is near the top of the cup and then formed another it's a double cup and handle. But the way that it works is once silver has broken through 50 which it has. Technical analysis would say you take the distance from the bottom of the top which was $46 from 50 to four and you add it to the top that would mean that the next target from a technical analysis standpoint is $96. And uh I think that's exactly what you will begin to see where the market physically begins to exert itself over the paper shenanigans that we've seen for a long long time. The United States for the last 40 50 years has bet on a strategy of strong dollar and US bonds and service jobs where the rest of the world in particular the bricks in China have you know h have not been ignoring the factories like we have not been ignoring commodities like we have. China as as a good example did the opposite. It built factories accumulated commodities and gold and and now is really pushing away from relying upon the dollar. That is ultimately I think where we're going. Yes, exactly that. right there. >> Um, all right. A couple questions there. So, one, as demand for physical really begins to jump and it's harder and harder to get inventory, not only does the the spot price go up, but the premia go up as well, right? The premium that's charged on top of the spot price of silver. Are we starting to see that now? I I honestly haven't been tracking spot price of silver that much recently, but I did see someone put around an X yesterday. One of the bullion dealers online was selling an ounce of silver for I think 62 bucks, right? Which was, you know, a what at the time about a $11 premium, which is what translates into around a I don't know 22% premium or something like that. Are we seeing premiums starting to blow out? Yeah, ours aren't that high, but you are beginning to see premiums start to blow out and and even worse than that. What you're going to see is a massive spread between buy and sell because it's it's narrowed a bit to about a$180, but yesterday and the day before we were about a $3 spread between the futures price and the spot price. >> So, let me explain what that really means. If I'm going to buy a 100,000 ounces of silver, um, and the spot price says $52, but I'm not able to hedge it on the futures contracts and anywhere near that price, it's actually $48 that I can hedge it at. That's what the futures market is. This is backwardation. In other words, where the futures price is lower than the spot price. It's very, very unusual. Normally, it's called contango where the spot price is x and the futures price is x + 1 plus 2 plus 3. You the further you go out, the more you're supposed to pay for the time value added to money. It's like if if I loan you money and you're going to pay me back tomorrow, I probably won't charge you interest. But if I loan you money and you're going to pay me back in six months, well, I probably am going to charge you interest kind of thing. Well, that's exactly what what contango would be. That's a normal market. The backwardation is the opposite of that. So for dealers who have to buy metal at X, they can't hedge it anywhere near X. It's X minus three. So you're exposed. There's a big spread between buy and sell. And the premiums are jumping noticeably on the Eagles. Um, and this is exactly what we saw during the pandemic. The premiums on Eagles, every major dealer in America right now is north of six, seven, eight an ounce over spot. Just like that. I've been screaming to everyone for the last year and a half that it's very unusual how low the premiums have gotten. And now the US mint, which once again is the model of inefficiency is is is not able to keep up. Gold buffaloos, right, as an example, gold buffaloos, our cost on gold buffaloos is north of $200 over spot. cost before we make a penny. Right now, the biggest distributor, one of the biggest distributors in America, who I do a lot of business with, their cost on selling me silver eagles, if I buy massive amounts, will be north of $6 over spot. That's before I make a penny. Um, they have no platinum, zero in stock. These are massive wholesalers that that trade in the billions of dollars per year. We're beginning to see a system where, you know, the paper versus physical divide is breaking. the credibility of paper silver and gold and platinum futures, especially unallocated accounts is eroding >> as as more and more players demand physical settlement. And that's going to exert itself in the premiums that you see in the retail market. It's becoming much harder for dealers like myself to balance that. Not only is there a lack of liquidity, but you have this huge spread between futures and and spot, so it's hard to hedge your position. Yeah. Um, couple of things. One, so this just underscores, I think, kind of a big reason why you do what you do, Andy. If you don't hold it, you don't really have it. Uh, when things get really tight. And we've seen in cycles past when it's gotten hard to hedge like this, we've seen some, um, precious metals dealers who were, you know, to use Warren Buffett's uh, language, who were sort of swimming naked. Uh, that's when they've gone belly up. I'm I'm thinking, you know, notoriously of TLing, uh when whenever was that, you know, 10 plus years ago. >> Um I guess first and foremost, just to give you a chance to quell anybody's concerns that might be a Miles Franklin customer, presume you're doing fine here, but I'll let you I'll let you tell everybody that. >> Yeah, we are. I mean, we This is kind of an environment that I thrive in. Um I I've been talking about this stuff forever and I put my money where my mouth is. I've asked my traders to go way way out uh over the last month or two when supply was abundant and premiums were low. I knew that this wouldn't last. And so we go way out on our our line of credit. We we buy everything that we can. We are a company that is wholly owned. We are not um subservient to financers and to uh investors. we don't have to um to keep this really thin margin and huge profit level for for investors. Instead, we reinvest our our profits back into the business and and go super long on inventory. I would say that during CO, no one came close to the inventory that we had. And I would go into into future months, you know, three, six, nine months out, make make um purchases with money down commitments. And I've done the same thing here. I've loaded up on anything that wasn't nailed down. Instead of taking big distributions, I put my money into buying more product because I think that is ultimately going to be a hallmark of this industry. Look, I did an interview with Rick Rule the other day and once again he said the exact same thing, Adam. He said one half of 1% allocation and and it's not just physical metal. It's it's physical metal and and metal equities. He says >> from Joe and Jane six-pack to the Harvard endowment fund. Now, he always used to say that exact same phrase and I borrowed it from him. Funny thing is the Harvard endowment fund just bought over 100 million in gold. So, I don't know. Things are definitely changing. But yes, you will witness. See, during the last year and a half, the price has been low. The demand hasn't been very high. And it's only the people like your listeners who understand the importance of owning it. And so the refiners and the dealers and the wholesalers who have been choking on product, they haven't gone out of their way to replenish. And just like that, things change. And I say that all the time. And it's so hard to say this stuff because you get the cynical people out there say this is talking his book BS. But I'm not. I've seen it over and over and over again. And so now what happens? You're going to have a lag time, right? you're going to have a big lag time into December where the futures price is well below the spot price making it very hard for people to even hedge that long exposure. >> I have done it because I knew that markets repeat themselves. I knew that that we were living in an in a very tenuous environment. >> So yeah, we have a very good supply of product but again when you realize that such a small percentage of the public really has any exposure that can change very quickly. Um, we've been fortunate enough to have the SPRAT brokers run all their business through us where Rick used to be an uh the CEO, right? And one of their brokers or or a few of their brokers have been placing massive orders over the last several days with us >> indicative of smart money I think realizing that something is broken and things are changing. So, it's not just my brokers, it's not just our business. We work with other people like the brokers at SPAT and I will tell you that the demand at a level of sophistication that you speak to, the people who you speak to who I would say are far more sophisticated than many of the financial adviserss that they would work with mainstream because they understand the big picture, right? You go to a financial advisor who might be the best in the business but doesn't acknowledge that the world is the way that all of us think it is. the macro picture, the the geopolitical picture, which is so very very important to understand if that's going to be the backbone of of advice that you're given on your portfolio. So, I guess all I can simply say to you is that most people are going to be caught off guard by this and it will go from an environment of high prices that will identify the market to most people to your people saying, geez, you know, I I can't get it easily. It's disappearing. And just like that, it will disappear. So while things are good right now, you get just look, let me put it to you this way. Goldman Sachs said if if if the market even suspects for a moment that uh the Fed is losing independence and 5% of the money that's in embedded in Treasury shifts to gold, the price will go parabolic. Will go well north of 5,000. It's going to go well north of 5,000 because Stephen Mirren is the architect of the Miraago accord and he is now in the on the Fed. He was Trump's big adviser. Or even this Bohe was Trump's crypto adviser. He's now running USA Tether which is backing the the Genius Act. There is no independence. The market is going to catch on. The big money is catching on. The rest of the money will too. And then getting product will be very difficult because we've gone a year without any of these wholesalers or refiners or big importers finding much need to go deep into their lines of credit to to secure product because there wasn't any need to. I knew there would be. And whether I was stupid or lucky, I'll tell you that there are very few companies out there that have the inventory that we do right now. >> Okay. Um All right. So many questions for you. Although folks, I do want to get to your questions as well. Um, this is a live stream after all. And I'm going to put a comment up here by Mary Ellen. Um, because I'm going to say I'm going to give priority to people that say really nice things about Andy and me, like Mary Ellen has just done here. Thank you, Mary Ellen. Thank you so much for the kind words there. Uh, but no, actually, folks, we'll we'll take any and all comments here. They don't have to be nice. Um, okay, a couple quick questions before I start pulling from the live stream here. Um, you said you were talking to the SPAT brokers, Andy. In moments like this, when I presume there's now positive inflows into the ETFs, uh, for companies like SPAT, does that then force them to have to go out and buy product because they've got to be one for one matched in in those backed in those funds? >> Well, ultimately, yes. But you look at the Black Rockck uh State Street SLV scam ETFs as far as I'm concerned. It's funny. SLV and GLD are run by JP Morgan and Black Rockck. JP Morgan who paid a $920 million fine for manipulating the metals market. But their their perspectuses say that there because of the demand there can be an inequity. There can be a time where there's not as much metal in the system as there are bars behind it. But in general, yes, that is exactly what is supposed to happen. You know, the SPRAT physical trust is anything but a scam. SLV and GLD I wouldn't put my money in to save my life. And if you doubt me, read pages 6 through 12 titled risk factors. Real really read it slowly and I think you'll come away saying, "Whoa, I I I don't want to I don't want to own that." >> Okay? But but even the physicalbacked funds kind of contribute to the scarcity when there's a run like this because as investor capital comes into them they have to then bring in to match on a one for one basis. Right. >> 100%. >> Yeah. Okay. Um >> and and let's not forget that you know for the last five years in a row we've had between one and 200 million ounces short in supply versus demand in in mining with silver. So you have a declining availability of supply. You have an increased demand in in silver. Not just for its monetary aspect like we're talking about, but it's things like military. It's things like electric vehicles. It's things like solar panels. This this plurality in demand is very unusual in the commodity and silver exemplifies it. So on top of an expansion in demand, you have a decrease. Silver is found in nature like your skin is epidermis. It's found in a in a form called epiothermal right near the surface. The big deposits are declining and and disappearing. Only about 20% of the silver minded last year about 170 million of the 850 million came from mining companies like First Majestic. The rest of it is byproduct of of other mining. It's disappearing in nature. So yes, this is a a once- in a generation, I believe, shift into an asset that has been controlled by the West forever on leverage futures contracts that is being exploited and understood by the rest of the world and we're beginning to see it manifest. Now, this may not be that moment, but in my mind, it is moving towards that moment. >> Okay. And now you're getting to the heart of what I wanted to discuss in the live stream today. So, um, people, especially those who have not yet been invested in silver, have seen from the sidelines, oh my goodness, this this metal just exploded. It pretty much, you know, I don't know exactly what it's now up this year, but it's got to be up 60 plus percent at this point year to date. >> Even more. >> Yeah, probably even more. So, um, you know, there's a bit of a debate going on right now, which is, hey, this is the repricing. This is the great repricing that you just talked about as the world wakes up to the Fed's not independent. Silver is rare and and and becoming more scarce than the earth. Um uh it's been rehypothecated to to many different CL. It's sort of this perfect storm of things, right? And people are saying this is the step function. It's you know it's not looking the price isn't looking back from here. It's just going to continue going up, right? Um and then there are uh and so you know get on the train. It's not too late. get on right now. Then there are others and I would even put myself a little bit in this class which is you look nothing goes up in a straight line. Maybe this is the grand repricing. I'm not sure if that's going to be like a something that happens in a week. You know, we're probably going to see it go up. It could pull back. It go up. It pull back. Um and so um you know the other question is is hey, is it too late to get in here? Right? Is the big move already been made? And is there going to be a pullback here? And so let me give my little quick one man's point of view and then you can give a much smarter answer here which is >> I believe the long-term trend is is quite bullish the way that you've mentioned for all the reasons you've mentioned and if we're having this conversation in five years or 10 years silver price is probably at a price that we might not even be able to comprehend at this moment. Um but it has moved super far super fast. There is systemic stress right now that will likely get eased temporarily at some point. Um, and so it would not surprise me to see silver pull back at some point here. To what level? I don't know. Would it shock me if it went back down to 40, touched in the high30s? No, I wouldn't be shocked. It's a very volatile asset anyways. Um, do I think that would be a buying opportunity? Yeah, probably. Um, and so I mention all this to say I don't I personally don't think it's too late in the long term. I think in the short term, yeah, if you bought today, just be mentally prepared that it might go down before it goes higher again. Uh, because it's moved so far so fast. What would you say? >> Um, I would say that that's probably a very logical explanation. Um, that is what we've seen for a very very long time. Um, to me what this is, it's like the dollar is beginning to be exposed as a unreliable store of value, kind of like a melting ice cube. Um, the trust in the dollar is fading. It's fueling higher commodity prices. Yeah, >> and sorry to interject, but I'll note too, you've probably seen the chart that that central bank balance sheets, >> this is, >> you know, marktomarket with with gold, but have just gold has just surpassed US treasuries as a percentage of foreign bank foreign central bank balance sheets here, which is lends big credibility to your point there. >> That's huge and and it's it's exacerbating. This is a this is the dollar devaluation trade. This is exactly what I said on your show where they're using the Genius Act and the stable coin bill to not only to fund the Treasury market, but think of the $3 trillion that's held up and hold up at the Federal Reserve, right? All of this money that's been created by the banks that they don't want to lend out into a fractured economy. So, they leave it at the Fed. They're going to now pile all of that into treasuries into the into the stable coin bill, the Genius Act. and and this is going to devalue the dollar. Keeping your wealth in dollars is the shest way to go broke. This is what they want to do to bring back manufacturing. That is the Miraago accord. They want to devalue the dollar against assets in order to make manufacturing more competitive. And and you know, Judy Shelton was just on um my show again. Actually, Michelle McCrory did it this time. She uh runs our our YouTube channel as well now. And last week she said it again that Trump is going to peg the back end of the Treasury market on July 4th next year. It's a big day for him. It's the 250th anniversary. If they back the back end of the Treasury market with gold and and let gold slowly like Luke Roman says, let it go higher, higher, higher, higher, higher, higher, higher. And yeah, there'll be volatility, but it keeps going and no one acknowledges it. Everyone says, "Oh, it's, you know, it's FOMO or it's going to crash." But what if it's part of a bigger plan? By letting gold go higher, you're not doing it to make my job easier. You're let you're doing it to let the dollar devalue. Why would you want the dollar to value? Ask Stephen Mirren, the architect of the Miraago Accord. To sell manufacturing, how do you sell manufacturing? You abandon the reserve status of the dollar. You don't give up on the United States, but you abandon the reserve status on the dollar by letting the dollar collapse. It's down 11% in value already this year and falling as gold is moving in the other direction. If you peg it to the back end of the bond market and in Judy's book she says 5 10 20 30 and 50 with 30 and 50 having a very small coupon very small. But if you do that you can now bring back manufacturing at zero upfront borrowing costs and sell your product to the world at a massively devalued dollar. This is what they want to do. And so when you see gold and silver going higher, it's not gold and silver going higher. It is the dollar losing ground and losing value. And the big money understands this. The big money understands this inherently. And this is what they have been doing. The central banks understand this. This is why they have been taking positions in gold and silver the way that they have. Um I think this is just the very beginning. So yes, you're going to see pullbacks. You will see volatility. nothing goes straight up. But I would agree with you that ultimately it is a buying opportunity. And I try and say this without coming across as being a a snake oil salesman. I don't care if people rush to buy metal from me. That's not what this is about. It's about trying to convey something that I believe in my soul is happening. We have reached a point where being the world reserve currency, even ask Vice President Vance who has come out and said so. Being the reserve currency is no longer a benefit to the United States. It's a detriment. It's a benefit to us consumers. It's a detriment to anyone who produces anything. And in order to continue to to move forward as a country, we need to reshore manufacturing. And the only way to do that is in a devalued dollar and at very low upfront borrowing costs. The Genius Act will keep rates low on the front end of the curb and fund the government. The pegging of gold at a much higher price regardless if they revalue it or not, which I think they will. I think they'll just let it keep on going higher slowly and no one notices it, right? No one is taking action because they're waiting for the other shoe to drop. And it always has. Will it continue? I don't know. Gold's up 55% this year. It's on pace for its best year ever. Silver's up almost 70%. And I do think that commodities will now be a reflection of a declining dollar. It's not that the commodities are going parabolic just because. It's because the dollar is needs to be devalued in order to reshore manufacturing. And if there's nobility in what President Trump is trying to do, if I'm reading this right, it is the realization that we cannot continue to be the world's superpower without manufacturing anything, with being reliant on the world for everything. And ask yourself this, if the Congressional Budget Office, if the Congressional Budget Office has come out and said by 2031, 100% of all tax revenue will go just to pay the interest on the debt and mandatory entitlement. How do we continue to fund our military to rule the world when military spending is discretional? Yes, this is all together. Buying gold and silver right now is not you're not buying it to get wealthy. You're buying it because it is wealth. and the biggest money in the world, the biggest. It's one thing for me to say the central banks are doing it. It's another thing altogether to say the most sophisticated traders on Wall Street, the institutional traders who are standing for delivery left and right, they know what's coming and I think that's what you follow. >> Okay, good. Yeah. And I want to bring it to down to those brass tax here. Um, real quick, just to note that if if indeed that is the plan, right? um in order to reshore manufacturing. Uh I also will note that plan would also really help servicing the current pile of US debt. >> Of course. >> Right. Exactly. So there's there's multiple reasons why this would be attractive to the government. Um okay. So uh you know Andy, you're in the business of selling transacting with people that want to buy and sell precious metals. What have you noticed over the past week, if past couple weeks, if anything, in terms of the the tenor and the composition of your customers? In other words, you know, you just said there, look, the big guys, the really rich people really get it. Are are you seeing them doubling down here? Is it is it is it big money? Is it smart money? Is it rich money? Is it the regular guy coming in and just trying to sell the, you know, the family silver or, you know, buy with pocket change? What are you noticing? We're seeing nothing in the way of se selling, Adam. Nothing. I mean, literally nothing in the way of selling. And we're for the first time since uh 2021, we're seeing the average person a little bit more come in. And I must have received 30 emails yesterday. They all said something like, "Are you out of silver? Is are you going to run out of silver?" The big money has been buying up gold. to tell you that my cost on a gold buffalo, my cost is north of $200. I've never even dreamt of saying anything like that. That's before I make a penny. Um the big money has been doing this now for the last six months. And and I've mentioned that on shows and and you know, money that is concerned not about making profit but about protecting what they've worked so hard to obtain. Now you're getting a little bit more anxietydriven buying, which I don't think is out of line to be honest with you because I'm watching how fast our inventory is depleting and I have a good inventory. Um, but I talked to my suppliers and their the big money in the wholesale market. They're they're frozen. They don't know what to do. Um, I one of my big suppliers yesterday morning sent me an email first thing in the morning and saying, "We're halting trading." um we're halting trading because until we get a grip on premiums and on um uh availability, I'm going to read to you uh a email or a text message that I got from Michelle McCrory last night. Now, I haven't been able to um validate it myself, okay? But I want to read this to you. I got to turn my phone on. It'll take one second. Um because if it's true, if it is true, it speaks of a US-based dealer, but it also speaks of the Perth Mint in Australia. Um let me just read this to you real quick. If it is true, um it is the beginning of exactly what we're talking about here about some crazy times. She says, "Um, it was OnX." And come on, pop up. Always when you need it to pop up quickly. >> Um, give me a second. Shouldn't take long. The title is Perth Mint shortages, but >> well, while you're pulling it up, I I'll share with folks that >> Yeah, there you go. Um, look, I I don't I haven't heard this, but I I will say that uh many many years ago, I bought Perth Mint uh certificates for gold and silver and platinum, and most of it was in gold. And um golly, this was back uh 20 12 or so. Uh, I ended up having the gold shipped out to me from the Perth Mint. I just said, "You know what? I'm just not comfortable with it being literally on the other side of the world in in the in the city that's the furthest from any other major city in the world." And now you're making me feel good about that decision. >> Yeah. And it's really crazy. It's not opening up. Basically, what it said was that the Perth Mint had shut down >> had shut down delivery. Um, and they're not sending anything out. And I can't even believe I can't get this to open. Oh, here we go. I think it's going to open now. Hang on. Um, bear with me because it's worth listening to. >> All right. Well, I'm going to do a quick Google search while we're talking to here. >> Um, stops delivery. And sorry folks, you're watching real time. Okay, read it. >> Here we go. This is it right here. It says, "Perth suspends silver sales amid global shortage. Australia's Perth Mand halted all silver product sales on October 13th due to surging demand from industrial investment sectors overwhelming supply chains. US dealers like Brian Kuzmar who I don't know of commercial rare coins and precious metals have frozen transactions citing inability to hedge source product and price premiums while Indian markets face empty shelves. The Silver Institute projects a 2025 market deficit of over 200 million ounces pushing spot prices up 4%. So, um, all I can tell you, I don't know if it's true or not, but you're beginning to see things like strain not only in mints and refineries, but also in retail companies. I received an email yesterday from one of my suppliers and I'll see if I can find it real quick. It will take 10 seconds to read it to you if that be the case. Um, yeah, of course my phone I had it shut off when I started, so it's crawling. In essence, they just came and and he just said to me that we're suspending all transactions until we figure out what's going on. And and although it did open back up, these are things I've never seen before. Um I did want to say one thing about a question that I saw up in your chat that I wanted to >> mention. Um, someone said they owned SLV and GLD within their IRA and should they sell it and take the hit tax-wise, there are no tax hits when you sell it within >> within an IRA, you should be fine. Yeah, >> correct. Correct. And yes, I do think the real thing is far better, especially within an IRA. You can own physical metal within your IRA. um you can't ever take possession of GLD and SLVs. So if physical possession to me that is the whole key to a precious metals IRA is the ability to physically possess it if you wish although it is a taxable event through distribution you could say send me my metal and they would do so. Okay. And there are some other alternatives as well, right? I mean, you and I talked about this a little while ago. Um, Andy, previous one, like there are there are ways in which you can own precious metals in your IRA, like physical bullion. To your point, the danger there or the the issue there is is it's often once it's in your hand, that's pretty easy to claim that was a distribution. You're going to be taxed and probably penalized if you're young enough. Yeah. Now, you could own something like um ounce or some of these other um fully backed ETFs that also will deliver to you upon request. So, in other words, you know, you're holding something in your IR in your retirement account um that is giving you exposure to the price of the precious metals. it's fully back. So, you might not have the same worries that that Andy has about SLB or GLD, but you know, things get real wonky and you just say, you know what, I want the metal shipped to me anyways. Those companies, at least that's their their agreement inside these their perspectuses that they will do that for you. Not the cheapest way to get your metal, but a way to get it, you know, when when it's important. >> Yeah. And I I also noticed that Oh, Charlie Pellerin. Charlie Pellerin. Hi, Charlie. You're one of the greatest guys. This is a one of the best guys ever. Thank you for the kind words, Charlie. >> Someone um mentioned that Junk Silver Pre65 is the I see a couple people mentioning it. I was able to buy $18 million worth below spot. Um the dealer said to me more or less, look, um he's a big wholesaler friend of mine and he said, look, you take it all, I'll give it to you below spot. This is a guy that's very wealthy and he does this position. >> When was it? >> Uh less than a month ago. >> Okay. >> And so we still have probably half of it left, I think. I don't know how much, but we have a good amount left. But we're able to sell it at barely over spot. Literally barely over. Um at the cheapest price in the United States. You want the best value. This during the pandemic, I would have paid you 11 or 12 over the price of silver to buy it back from you. next to silver eagles. It was the most expensive item that there was. But this is how bad it had gotten up until just recently in terms of mainstream. At the same time, what one of the things that I found so interesting about this market, Adam, was that at the same time you had record participation by the public in the stock market. All-time high mompaw retail in the stock market over 55%. all-time record high on leverage with option exposure and all-time high margin exposure over a trillion dollars. All-time high for the retail public. At the same time, the insiders are selling between two and four billion a week since since June and and Bezos selling 7 billion in Amazon stock and Buffett on 500 billion in cash and all of the institutional traders moving the other direction and and standing for delivery on physical metal and comx. In other words, the public is all loaded into the equity market. The big money is leaving the equity market and buying copious amounts of silver and gold more so than we've ever seen, not just the central banks. >> Um, and what could possibly go wrong, right? Well, so in in in terms of junk silver, I was able to buy because this guy doesn't hedge his position and he let it run all the way up. He said, "You take it all, I'll sell it to you below spot." Which I bought it. There are good values out there still. I don't know how long that lasts for, but you look at the silver eagle and it's anything but. You look at every major online company out there. I'll probably be the cheapest on silver eagles, but you're not going to find any major company out there that will sell you silver eagles in quantity probably at under seven bucks an ounce over spot just like that when three weeks ago they would have been sold to you for four bucks over. And things are changing very very rapidly right now. Um there's still good deals out there, but I don't know how long that lasts for if this continues. >> Yeah, I mean I guess it sort of depends on on how much the demand continues to maintain from here, but right now the momentum seems to be be higher. Um quick question for you Andy. So when it comes to the different premia for the different form factors so like in gold you mentioned um uh you know people are willing to pay the most or or demanding the most uh for the buffalo >> right it's become very expensive for you to buy right why does that I'm just curious like what is driving that because technically a sovereign coin it's not really supposed to be you know a collectible asset that that that appreciates with with collectibility It's really just supposed to be a great representation of an ounce of gold. So why pay more for a buffalo, than an eagle, than a maple leaf when it's really all just, you know, an ounce of gold at the end of the day? >> Well, that's a good question and let's let's break it down. First of all, this is all controlled by the primary distributors, right? There's about six or seven of them. Miles Franklin was nominated by one of those primary distributors to be one of 27 US men authorized resellers about 20 years ago. At the time, it was Credential Bee who got bought by Jeff. And coincidentally, Jeff just came out and said their next target for gold is 6,600. They know gold very well. But those primary distributors buy from all of the major mints. And when the mints run out of product, those distributors have everyone begging them for product. they jack up the premiums not only to buy but also to sell. Uh right now the US man I I they're not making any 2025 gold buffaloos right now and I don't think they have any plans to do so. They haven't made any platinum eagles in three years. So premiums on things like platinum eagles if you can find them are north of $200. Way north of $200 to to buy platinum which is way lower than the price of gold. Right? So percentage wise way higher. In fact I look at one of the biggest distributors in America. I look at their balance sheet right now, what they have or their inventory sheet. No platinum at all. Zero. They It says platinum maples sold out. Platinum Valkcami bars sold out. When you talk about the Buffalo and the Eagle, you have 11 states and many more considering it that are talking about legal tender laws. Almost all of them mention US gold and silver coins as legal tender. The demand for the gold coins made by the US is way higher than anything else. But you're right, gold is gold is gold. It's kind of like this. You're having a party, a big party. You're having the Tagert uh family reunion party that coincides with the Super Bowl. Your team is in the Super Bowl. You got everyone coming to your house, 200 people. Your wife says, "Adam, you need to go to Costco and buy soda and hot dogs and hamburgers for the barbecue." So, you go there and you're thinking, "Geez, I'm going to have 240 people. I need 500 cans of soda." So you go down the soda aisle and you see Coca-Cola and you see generic brand soda from Kir Kirkland. That's 80 cents a can less than the Coca-Cola. You say, "Well, geez, if I just buy half CocaCola and half Kirkland brand, 250 times 80, that's a couple hundred bucks. I can buy the hot dogs and hamburgers with that." That's what you do. You have a great barbecue. You got two buckets sitting outside. Half with Coca-Cola and name brand soda and half with Kirkland brand soda. Now, in the end, which bucket do you think will be emptied first? And and you're right. If if you die in a thirst with a hamburger in your hand outside at a barbecue, you'll drink the generic soda. They all drink the same. But the American products in this country have demand far greater than anything else. And when you add into it the legal tender laws that are being passed that say and mention specifically American coins, there's just a demand for the American coins, both gold, silver, platinum, and and um well, gold, silver, and platinum that that they can't keep up with. They are the model of inefficiency. They are horrible at keeping up with demand, and as a result, the primary distributors jack up the prices. So you can buy other items, but in the end, if you want the greatest amount of liquidity and demand, and I think when people buy stuff in this industry, they don't think about that enough. They don't think about the backside of the trade. It's very easy to be pennywise and pound foolish. And I think that you can have the greatest thing in the world, but if it lacks demand, what good is it? You want something that someone says, "Yeah, I want it. Absolutely. Give it to me." I don't want to have to heaggle with you about saying, "No, but this is really great, too." And so whether you're talking gold bars from Costco, which are also getting expensive and hard to get, or Canadian Maple Leafs or Krueger, they're all an ounce of gold, but the real demand in this country is for US mint products. And unfortunately, the mint that produces it does a very poor job at providing adequate supply. And in particular, when you go through a period of time like we saw for the last year plus where there's tepid demand at best by the mainstream, they have no incentive to jack up supply um until we get to a position like this is exactly what we saw for four years during the pandemic. >> Yeah. >> 134 $15 premiums on silver eagles. 2000 plus dollar buyback premiums on gold eagles and buffaloos. And now the mint just isn't making enough Buffaloos. And you look at the amount of silver eagles they made this year. my mind, they'll be a collector's item. Literally, like the 1996 silver eagle where they hardly made any. They've hardly made any. Premiums are only going to go higher on Americanmade coins. >> Okay. All right. We only have a couple minutes left. So, um, we got to get to brass tax and relatively short answers here, but, um, so right now, Andy, in in this market, right, which is a hot market, tight market. Um, what's your advice to people around buying silver? Um, let's start with a person who hasn't bought any. I imagine you're going to say close your, you know, just pinch your nose and buy in and get an initial perspect, initial position. For those that actually already have exposure, is it just, hey, just keep your dollar cost averaging going on, or is it, hey, maybe wait a little bit, see if we get lower prices uh before we we take off again? Uh what would you say to them? >> I wouldn't I wouldn't do that. I'd cost average. Cost average is the only way to smooth out the uncertainty curve. You know, we're all waiting for the other shoe to drop. What if it doesn't? What if it keeps going higher? We are breaking through a 45-year cup and handle the strongest technical formation I've ever seen. Um, and and and I do think you should definitely build a core position and then cost average your your your further acquisitions. And right now, the best value by far is pre65 constitutional silver. It's not even close >> really. Okay. In terms of the the cheapest way to to buy an ounce of silver, >> cheapest. And and during the pandemic, it was the second most highest premium difficult to get item period for four years. >> Why was that? because you can't reproduce it. It hasn't been made for over 60 years. Okay? And and the utility that it gets, 14 dimes is almost exactly 1 ounce of silver. So if things ever really were to get to a very high level or the dollar was was really something that was sliding precipitously, in theory, you'd have 14 transactions with 14 dimes versus one transaction with a silver round or silver eagle or silver maple. >> But if I'm not if I want 1 oz coins, there's six major mints. US too expensive maybe Canada, Austria, Australia, South Africa, United Kingdom. It's the Bratannia, the Krueger, and the Kangaroo, the Philarmonic, um, and the Maple Leaf. Those are all better values than the Silver Eagle right now, even though I like the Eagle better. >> Okay. All right. Um, somebody said that they watched a live stream of yours last night and your your advice given the current market environment was don't sell your silver and maybe just keep dollar cost averaging. Their interpretation was you were saying gold is still something worth continuing to buy at this point. Maybe buying a little bit more aggressively than dollar cost averaging. Is that true or >> what I said was what I said was it's not time to trade your silver for gold yet. There will come a time to do it when the ratio corrects. It's an anomaly where the ratio is for 5,000 years the ratio was 16 to1, right? Um it's coming out of the ground at 7 to1. There will come a time to trade your silver into gold. But yeah, I wouldn't I look I think gold's going to go higher than anyone thinks possible. It is being reintegrated into the monetary system 100%. So, you know, to put all your money into silver if you're buying precious metals, it is a better value and it does have an angle. I still think I wouldn't ignore gold. And even though it's gone up, you know, high, uh, I think it's going to go much higher. Not straight up, but I really do think it'll go higher than people think. If if Judy is right, and if I'm right, and they're going to peg it to the back end of the Treasury market, it has to be much, much higher. Luke Roman says they'll let it go to seven or 8,000 and then they'll revalue it from a higher level so as to not have to revalue it from such a low level. Luke Roman is as smart as it gets. So, I wouldn't discount what he says either. Okay, thanks. All right, I'm gonna have to start wrapping it up here. Um I will note um a couple things. So, first off, um folks, if you enjoy seeing us do these special report live streams in response to things that are, you know, going on in real time in the world, would like to see us do more of them in the future on different topics. Let me know in the um in the live chat or in the comments section below if you're watching the replay. And of course, we'll we'll do more of that. We want to do more of the things you want us to do more of. Um, I also want to give special appreciation to Andy today. Uh, you know, as you guys know, he comes on the channel um from time to time and he always comes when I ask him to. This week, I'm asking him to do triple duty. Uh, and this is all why he's out of the country and getting bombarded with calls from clients and everything. So, Andy, I very much appreciate you taking the time to do this. >> Adam, like I've said to you from day one, you are one of the most respected, best analysts I've ever seen in this industry. I mean that sincerely. I hope all of your viewers already know that and it's my honor to be here. I would uh come in from the sun at risk getting in trouble with my wife any day to be here. So, thank you for having me 100%. >> You're a good man. I I I promise to minimize my request that could get you in trouble with your wife there. But >> it's all right. I'm used to it by now. I'm used to it. I'm good at deflecting it. >> And a reminder for folks that Andy is going to be participating in the Thoughtful Money Fall Conference um this Saturday. Um, and so we'll get to expand the discussion beyond silver in there. There'll also be some additional live Q&A opportunity for for Andy. Um, we will also have a few of the people that Andy mentioned, most notably Judy Shelton will be speaking at the conference. And um, I did a little bit of pre-recording with her and I'll I'll send you the clip of this after the conference. Sandy, but I asked her one question that she gave sort of a a fairly long three minute soliloquy answer to >> and it's one of the most meaningful three minutes I've ever recorded in my career. Um, so look forward to sharing that with you and then obviously with everyone come to the conference. >> She's an amazing lady and I think everyone should check her out. I mean there there are very few people I've ever spoken to as well who get it quite the way she does. So yeah, I'm looking forward to seeing that. >> Yeah. and and hopefully her I you know her concept of a um goldbacked US Treasury as you were talking about there um hopefully that gets adopted and and she had to be a little bit koi at least when I was talking to her but I asked her you know if if that is gaining any traction in the new administration and the impression I took from her answer was she couldn't be super specific about it but but yes um and that would really be a real thrill if that were to happen. So most important question here for you Andy is >> all right if people are watching this and saying you know what I really need to increase my exposure to silver and possibly gold as well where should they go um as most folks I think watching know um for now much of this year uh Miles Franklin has been thoughtful Money's endorsed um precious metals solution provider and um you have been very kind to say that hey if people just email you at info@milefranklin.com and that's the the email address here on the screen that you will make sure that either you or one of your top lieutenants there at Miles Franklin really gives sort of white glove service to thoughtful money viewers. Correct. >> 100%. And and it's really important that they put thoughtful money in the subject line or somewhere embedded within the email. We'll give you a price list that will be as good or better than anywhere in the country. We update it two or three times a week. You find better prices, let us know. Chances are we'll beat it if we can. Um, but we want to give your people special white glove service and um, take the time to answer their questions and that's important where we are right now. So, yes, info Miles Franklin. Any questions you've heard here, questions on IRA, questions on just getting the prices. Um, let us know. We'll work with you. We'll make sure it's a very, very, very good experience. You have my promise on that. And if they're directed specifically to me, please put I need to talk to Andy and I'll get back to you myself. All right, Andy. Um, for for that and for coming on and for so many reasons. I just so very much appreciate you. Got to wrap up here because I got to go um do a recording uh in two minutes from here and I'll let you get back to to your time uh there outside of the country. Again, >> my wife will thank you. >> You got it. Everyone stay well. I look forward to seeing you in a couple days. Thanks, Adam. >> Thanks, Andy. All right, everybody else. Thanks so much for watching. Bye >> bye.
SPECIAL REPORT: Silver Price Explodes Above $50/oz — Is It Too Late To Buy In? | Andy Schectman
Summary
Transcript
All right, we should be live. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thulful Money, founder and your host. Uh we're here for a special report this morning. Uh in this morning's live stream, folks, um we're going to be talking about the explosion in price that's happened in silver. And I can't think of anybody to discuss that who would be better than Andy Sheckchman who's joining me now. Andy is joining us from outside the US. Uh he is taking time from a trip uh abroad uh to do this live stream with us. So Andy, I can't thank you enough. >> Pleasure is mine, Adam. Glad I can be here. Thanks for having me, buddy. >> Thank you. Thank you. Well, it's sort of Murphy's law, right? You uh you hop on a plane to leave the country and then you have, you know, probably one of the most notable weeks in silver ever. Why don't we start with this? Um >> you have been in this business for a long time, Andy. Um what's your perspective on what we're seeing right now in the silver market? Are there pre is there precedent for this or are we kind of in in new territory here? >> I've never seen anything like this. This is the the term that everyone keeps throwing around is the word backwardation. Backwardation is an an environment that shows extreme delivery stress. Um uh it's unprecedented. This isn't just volatility in my mind. It's the market exposing the shortages of physical silver, the frailty of the paper promises. Um, this is something that um I think is just beginning and there's just far more demand for physical silver than there is um the availability and and the paper system is beginning to show great strains. People have accepted paper promises for a very long time and I I think that's coming to an end. And look, this is decisively decisively bullish for silver and other precious metals. But I think it's beginning to show that the paper promises that this whole western system has been based upon is starting to break. >> Okay. So um paper promises. So we've we've heard the term over the years, those of us who have followed the precious metals sector of um rehypothecation, which is that um there may be a silver bar there in a vault, but um potentially it has been promised to more than one party. And it's fine if if uh only one party at a time asks for it, but if you get multiple parties trying to exert their claim on it, all of a sudden people realize, hey, wait a minute, these bars have been promised to to many people. Is that the type of situation that that we're discovering we're in right now? >> Yeah. Like for example, in London, they have a 140 million ounce float, yet they're trading 600 million ounces a day in contracts that technically are deliverable. What could possibly go wrong? There's over two billion ounces in paper claims out there on a float of 140 million ounces. So that's exactly what it is. Uh it's a situation where the the paper promises this rehypotheation is being called on the map. Um and you can see that look for example the lease rate in silver in London. When when you lease silver in London, it would be something like you want to short a contract. You want to short the price of silver, but you don't have the metal. So, you have to borrow metal through leasing it in order to deliver the metal to short to drive down the price. Normally, that lease rate is somewhere in the neighborhood of a half a percent or 1%. Um, in in October, it's jumped up over 39% to over 39%. >> Wow. Um, and at the same time, we've seen silver rise since August when the lease rate was at about 1% or so, up to $53 here. So, you see the price rising, the lease rates rising. We're seeing the exact same thing in platinum. But, but it's a situation where right now you have the spot market trading well above the futures price. In other words, buyers are very desperate for immediate delivery. And it's very rare to see this Adam men silver. It's very rare. It signals urgent demand, depleted inventories, and really a systemic shortage of deliverable bars. And that's all because of rehypothecation. In other words, it's getting called under the carpet. >> Okay. And and where is this shortage really manifesting most? Is it in London? >> Absolutely, it is. I mean, you're seeing delivery stress on on that is exacerbating it on Comx. We've already seen 16.5 million ounces delivered in Kulix, adding to the limited vault supplies, but but yes, the the the the main stress is in London right now and um much more so than than on Comx. Uh and and really it is in my mind the epicenter of where all of this could really get into some serious problems where you're beginning to see margin calls for traders out there who are receiving a margin call because the price is going against their short position and the lease rate and the borrowing costs are so high that they're not able to get the silver to cover their position. And that's when things begin to get very very very interesting. What it really tells us is that buyers aren't just rolling over their contracts like they used to. They're standing for delivery. They're demanding real metal. And these delivery numbers are well above normal. So, I guess if you could encapsulate it easily, it's that the rush for gold and silver is real. It's intensifying. And markets just aren't trading paper contracts right now. The people want the real metal in hand. And in a world where paper contracts are vastly overstating the supply, that becomes a problem. >> Okay. So, we've talked in your previous appearances about these very high delivery rates and um uh you know, you'd suspected that it might even be sovereign players that are trying to beef up their stores at the physical metal. Um once things get really tight like this, right, and people start realizing, oh, you know, there's maybe not enough metal to really go around to satisfy these contracts, does it then potentially fall into like a vicious cycle, sort of like a run on a bank, where people say, oh my gosh, this is tighter than I thought. Then give me what I can get now. And then that places even more stress on inventories. And then you again potentially have the equivalent of a run of the bank. >> Yeah, absolutely. The short-term implication would be liquidations and survival driven selling can trigger volatility. That's the short term. Even sharp pullbacks. Medium-term as far as I'm concerned is that once this forced selling ends, the physical scarcity starts to dominate and silver sustains its higher prices $50 plus. But long term, if confidence in this paper system collapses like we're seeing, a structural reset could start to repric silver. That's what I'm seeing $7500. And and I say that to you and that's that's not pie in the sky because if you take the 45 year cup and handle that goes like this. The way technical analysis works is the top of the cup 1980. The bottom of the cup the early 90s and again back up to 2011 again which is near the top of the cup and then formed another it's a double cup and handle. But the way that it works is once silver has broken through 50 which it has. Technical analysis would say you take the distance from the bottom of the top which was $46 from 50 to four and you add it to the top that would mean that the next target from a technical analysis standpoint is $96. And uh I think that's exactly what you will begin to see where the market physically begins to exert itself over the paper shenanigans that we've seen for a long long time. The United States for the last 40 50 years has bet on a strategy of strong dollar and US bonds and service jobs where the rest of the world in particular the bricks in China have you know h have not been ignoring the factories like we have not been ignoring commodities like we have. China as as a good example did the opposite. It built factories accumulated commodities and gold and and now is really pushing away from relying upon the dollar. That is ultimately I think where we're going. Yes, exactly that. right there. >> Um, all right. A couple questions there. So, one, as demand for physical really begins to jump and it's harder and harder to get inventory, not only does the the spot price go up, but the premia go up as well, right? The premium that's charged on top of the spot price of silver. Are we starting to see that now? I I honestly haven't been tracking spot price of silver that much recently, but I did see someone put around an X yesterday. One of the bullion dealers online was selling an ounce of silver for I think 62 bucks, right? Which was, you know, a what at the time about a $11 premium, which is what translates into around a I don't know 22% premium or something like that. Are we seeing premiums starting to blow out? Yeah, ours aren't that high, but you are beginning to see premiums start to blow out and and even worse than that. What you're going to see is a massive spread between buy and sell because it's it's narrowed a bit to about a$180, but yesterday and the day before we were about a $3 spread between the futures price and the spot price. >> So, let me explain what that really means. If I'm going to buy a 100,000 ounces of silver, um, and the spot price says $52, but I'm not able to hedge it on the futures contracts and anywhere near that price, it's actually $48 that I can hedge it at. That's what the futures market is. This is backwardation. In other words, where the futures price is lower than the spot price. It's very, very unusual. Normally, it's called contango where the spot price is x and the futures price is x + 1 plus 2 plus 3. You the further you go out, the more you're supposed to pay for the time value added to money. It's like if if I loan you money and you're going to pay me back tomorrow, I probably won't charge you interest. But if I loan you money and you're going to pay me back in six months, well, I probably am going to charge you interest kind of thing. Well, that's exactly what what contango would be. That's a normal market. The backwardation is the opposite of that. So for dealers who have to buy metal at X, they can't hedge it anywhere near X. It's X minus three. So you're exposed. There's a big spread between buy and sell. And the premiums are jumping noticeably on the Eagles. Um, and this is exactly what we saw during the pandemic. The premiums on Eagles, every major dealer in America right now is north of six, seven, eight an ounce over spot. Just like that. I've been screaming to everyone for the last year and a half that it's very unusual how low the premiums have gotten. And now the US mint, which once again is the model of inefficiency is is is not able to keep up. Gold buffaloos, right, as an example, gold buffaloos, our cost on gold buffaloos is north of $200 over spot. cost before we make a penny. Right now, the biggest distributor, one of the biggest distributors in America, who I do a lot of business with, their cost on selling me silver eagles, if I buy massive amounts, will be north of $6 over spot. That's before I make a penny. Um, they have no platinum, zero in stock. These are massive wholesalers that that trade in the billions of dollars per year. We're beginning to see a system where, you know, the paper versus physical divide is breaking. the credibility of paper silver and gold and platinum futures, especially unallocated accounts is eroding >> as as more and more players demand physical settlement. And that's going to exert itself in the premiums that you see in the retail market. It's becoming much harder for dealers like myself to balance that. Not only is there a lack of liquidity, but you have this huge spread between futures and and spot, so it's hard to hedge your position. Yeah. Um, couple of things. One, so this just underscores, I think, kind of a big reason why you do what you do, Andy. If you don't hold it, you don't really have it. Uh, when things get really tight. And we've seen in cycles past when it's gotten hard to hedge like this, we've seen some, um, precious metals dealers who were, you know, to use Warren Buffett's uh, language, who were sort of swimming naked. Uh, that's when they've gone belly up. I'm I'm thinking, you know, notoriously of TLing, uh when whenever was that, you know, 10 plus years ago. >> Um I guess first and foremost, just to give you a chance to quell anybody's concerns that might be a Miles Franklin customer, presume you're doing fine here, but I'll let you I'll let you tell everybody that. >> Yeah, we are. I mean, we This is kind of an environment that I thrive in. Um I I've been talking about this stuff forever and I put my money where my mouth is. I've asked my traders to go way way out uh over the last month or two when supply was abundant and premiums were low. I knew that this wouldn't last. And so we go way out on our our line of credit. We we buy everything that we can. We are a company that is wholly owned. We are not um subservient to financers and to uh investors. we don't have to um to keep this really thin margin and huge profit level for for investors. Instead, we reinvest our our profits back into the business and and go super long on inventory. I would say that during CO, no one came close to the inventory that we had. And I would go into into future months, you know, three, six, nine months out, make make um purchases with money down commitments. And I've done the same thing here. I've loaded up on anything that wasn't nailed down. Instead of taking big distributions, I put my money into buying more product because I think that is ultimately going to be a hallmark of this industry. Look, I did an interview with Rick Rule the other day and once again he said the exact same thing, Adam. He said one half of 1% allocation and and it's not just physical metal. It's it's physical metal and and metal equities. He says >> from Joe and Jane six-pack to the Harvard endowment fund. Now, he always used to say that exact same phrase and I borrowed it from him. Funny thing is the Harvard endowment fund just bought over 100 million in gold. So, I don't know. Things are definitely changing. But yes, you will witness. See, during the last year and a half, the price has been low. The demand hasn't been very high. And it's only the people like your listeners who understand the importance of owning it. And so the refiners and the dealers and the wholesalers who have been choking on product, they haven't gone out of their way to replenish. And just like that, things change. And I say that all the time. And it's so hard to say this stuff because you get the cynical people out there say this is talking his book BS. But I'm not. I've seen it over and over and over again. And so now what happens? You're going to have a lag time, right? you're going to have a big lag time into December where the futures price is well below the spot price making it very hard for people to even hedge that long exposure. >> I have done it because I knew that markets repeat themselves. I knew that that we were living in an in a very tenuous environment. >> So yeah, we have a very good supply of product but again when you realize that such a small percentage of the public really has any exposure that can change very quickly. Um, we've been fortunate enough to have the SPRAT brokers run all their business through us where Rick used to be an uh the CEO, right? And one of their brokers or or a few of their brokers have been placing massive orders over the last several days with us >> indicative of smart money I think realizing that something is broken and things are changing. So, it's not just my brokers, it's not just our business. We work with other people like the brokers at SPAT and I will tell you that the demand at a level of sophistication that you speak to, the people who you speak to who I would say are far more sophisticated than many of the financial adviserss that they would work with mainstream because they understand the big picture, right? You go to a financial advisor who might be the best in the business but doesn't acknowledge that the world is the way that all of us think it is. the macro picture, the the geopolitical picture, which is so very very important to understand if that's going to be the backbone of of advice that you're given on your portfolio. So, I guess all I can simply say to you is that most people are going to be caught off guard by this and it will go from an environment of high prices that will identify the market to most people to your people saying, geez, you know, I I can't get it easily. It's disappearing. And just like that, it will disappear. So while things are good right now, you get just look, let me put it to you this way. Goldman Sachs said if if if the market even suspects for a moment that uh the Fed is losing independence and 5% of the money that's in embedded in Treasury shifts to gold, the price will go parabolic. Will go well north of 5,000. It's going to go well north of 5,000 because Stephen Mirren is the architect of the Miraago accord and he is now in the on the Fed. He was Trump's big adviser. Or even this Bohe was Trump's crypto adviser. He's now running USA Tether which is backing the the Genius Act. There is no independence. The market is going to catch on. The big money is catching on. The rest of the money will too. And then getting product will be very difficult because we've gone a year without any of these wholesalers or refiners or big importers finding much need to go deep into their lines of credit to to secure product because there wasn't any need to. I knew there would be. And whether I was stupid or lucky, I'll tell you that there are very few companies out there that have the inventory that we do right now. >> Okay. Um All right. So many questions for you. Although folks, I do want to get to your questions as well. Um, this is a live stream after all. And I'm going to put a comment up here by Mary Ellen. Um, because I'm going to say I'm going to give priority to people that say really nice things about Andy and me, like Mary Ellen has just done here. Thank you, Mary Ellen. Thank you so much for the kind words there. Uh, but no, actually, folks, we'll we'll take any and all comments here. They don't have to be nice. Um, okay, a couple quick questions before I start pulling from the live stream here. Um, you said you were talking to the SPAT brokers, Andy. In moments like this, when I presume there's now positive inflows into the ETFs, uh, for companies like SPAT, does that then force them to have to go out and buy product because they've got to be one for one matched in in those backed in those funds? >> Well, ultimately, yes. But you look at the Black Rockck uh State Street SLV scam ETFs as far as I'm concerned. It's funny. SLV and GLD are run by JP Morgan and Black Rockck. JP Morgan who paid a $920 million fine for manipulating the metals market. But their their perspectuses say that there because of the demand there can be an inequity. There can be a time where there's not as much metal in the system as there are bars behind it. But in general, yes, that is exactly what is supposed to happen. You know, the SPRAT physical trust is anything but a scam. SLV and GLD I wouldn't put my money in to save my life. And if you doubt me, read pages 6 through 12 titled risk factors. Real really read it slowly and I think you'll come away saying, "Whoa, I I I don't want to I don't want to own that." >> Okay? But but even the physicalbacked funds kind of contribute to the scarcity when there's a run like this because as investor capital comes into them they have to then bring in to match on a one for one basis. Right. >> 100%. >> Yeah. Okay. Um >> and and let's not forget that you know for the last five years in a row we've had between one and 200 million ounces short in supply versus demand in in mining with silver. So you have a declining availability of supply. You have an increased demand in in silver. Not just for its monetary aspect like we're talking about, but it's things like military. It's things like electric vehicles. It's things like solar panels. This this plurality in demand is very unusual in the commodity and silver exemplifies it. So on top of an expansion in demand, you have a decrease. Silver is found in nature like your skin is epidermis. It's found in a in a form called epiothermal right near the surface. The big deposits are declining and and disappearing. Only about 20% of the silver minded last year about 170 million of the 850 million came from mining companies like First Majestic. The rest of it is byproduct of of other mining. It's disappearing in nature. So yes, this is a a once- in a generation, I believe, shift into an asset that has been controlled by the West forever on leverage futures contracts that is being exploited and understood by the rest of the world and we're beginning to see it manifest. Now, this may not be that moment, but in my mind, it is moving towards that moment. >> Okay. And now you're getting to the heart of what I wanted to discuss in the live stream today. So, um, people, especially those who have not yet been invested in silver, have seen from the sidelines, oh my goodness, this this metal just exploded. It pretty much, you know, I don't know exactly what it's now up this year, but it's got to be up 60 plus percent at this point year to date. >> Even more. >> Yeah, probably even more. So, um, you know, there's a bit of a debate going on right now, which is, hey, this is the repricing. This is the great repricing that you just talked about as the world wakes up to the Fed's not independent. Silver is rare and and and becoming more scarce than the earth. Um uh it's been rehypothecated to to many different CL. It's sort of this perfect storm of things, right? And people are saying this is the step function. It's you know it's not looking the price isn't looking back from here. It's just going to continue going up, right? Um and then there are uh and so you know get on the train. It's not too late. get on right now. Then there are others and I would even put myself a little bit in this class which is you look nothing goes up in a straight line. Maybe this is the grand repricing. I'm not sure if that's going to be like a something that happens in a week. You know, we're probably going to see it go up. It could pull back. It go up. It pull back. Um and so um you know the other question is is hey, is it too late to get in here? Right? Is the big move already been made? And is there going to be a pullback here? And so let me give my little quick one man's point of view and then you can give a much smarter answer here which is >> I believe the long-term trend is is quite bullish the way that you've mentioned for all the reasons you've mentioned and if we're having this conversation in five years or 10 years silver price is probably at a price that we might not even be able to comprehend at this moment. Um but it has moved super far super fast. There is systemic stress right now that will likely get eased temporarily at some point. Um, and so it would not surprise me to see silver pull back at some point here. To what level? I don't know. Would it shock me if it went back down to 40, touched in the high30s? No, I wouldn't be shocked. It's a very volatile asset anyways. Um, do I think that would be a buying opportunity? Yeah, probably. Um, and so I mention all this to say I don't I personally don't think it's too late in the long term. I think in the short term, yeah, if you bought today, just be mentally prepared that it might go down before it goes higher again. Uh, because it's moved so far so fast. What would you say? >> Um, I would say that that's probably a very logical explanation. Um, that is what we've seen for a very very long time. Um, to me what this is, it's like the dollar is beginning to be exposed as a unreliable store of value, kind of like a melting ice cube. Um, the trust in the dollar is fading. It's fueling higher commodity prices. Yeah, >> and sorry to interject, but I'll note too, you've probably seen the chart that that central bank balance sheets, >> this is, >> you know, marktomarket with with gold, but have just gold has just surpassed US treasuries as a percentage of foreign bank foreign central bank balance sheets here, which is lends big credibility to your point there. >> That's huge and and it's it's exacerbating. This is a this is the dollar devaluation trade. This is exactly what I said on your show where they're using the Genius Act and the stable coin bill to not only to fund the Treasury market, but think of the $3 trillion that's held up and hold up at the Federal Reserve, right? All of this money that's been created by the banks that they don't want to lend out into a fractured economy. So, they leave it at the Fed. They're going to now pile all of that into treasuries into the into the stable coin bill, the Genius Act. and and this is going to devalue the dollar. Keeping your wealth in dollars is the shest way to go broke. This is what they want to do to bring back manufacturing. That is the Miraago accord. They want to devalue the dollar against assets in order to make manufacturing more competitive. And and you know, Judy Shelton was just on um my show again. Actually, Michelle McCrory did it this time. She uh runs our our YouTube channel as well now. And last week she said it again that Trump is going to peg the back end of the Treasury market on July 4th next year. It's a big day for him. It's the 250th anniversary. If they back the back end of the Treasury market with gold and and let gold slowly like Luke Roman says, let it go higher, higher, higher, higher, higher, higher, higher. And yeah, there'll be volatility, but it keeps going and no one acknowledges it. Everyone says, "Oh, it's, you know, it's FOMO or it's going to crash." But what if it's part of a bigger plan? By letting gold go higher, you're not doing it to make my job easier. You're let you're doing it to let the dollar devalue. Why would you want the dollar to value? Ask Stephen Mirren, the architect of the Miraago Accord. To sell manufacturing, how do you sell manufacturing? You abandon the reserve status of the dollar. You don't give up on the United States, but you abandon the reserve status on the dollar by letting the dollar collapse. It's down 11% in value already this year and falling as gold is moving in the other direction. If you peg it to the back end of the bond market and in Judy's book she says 5 10 20 30 and 50 with 30 and 50 having a very small coupon very small. But if you do that you can now bring back manufacturing at zero upfront borrowing costs and sell your product to the world at a massively devalued dollar. This is what they want to do. And so when you see gold and silver going higher, it's not gold and silver going higher. It is the dollar losing ground and losing value. And the big money understands this. The big money understands this inherently. And this is what they have been doing. The central banks understand this. This is why they have been taking positions in gold and silver the way that they have. Um I think this is just the very beginning. So yes, you're going to see pullbacks. You will see volatility. nothing goes straight up. But I would agree with you that ultimately it is a buying opportunity. And I try and say this without coming across as being a a snake oil salesman. I don't care if people rush to buy metal from me. That's not what this is about. It's about trying to convey something that I believe in my soul is happening. We have reached a point where being the world reserve currency, even ask Vice President Vance who has come out and said so. Being the reserve currency is no longer a benefit to the United States. It's a detriment. It's a benefit to us consumers. It's a detriment to anyone who produces anything. And in order to continue to to move forward as a country, we need to reshore manufacturing. And the only way to do that is in a devalued dollar and at very low upfront borrowing costs. The Genius Act will keep rates low on the front end of the curb and fund the government. The pegging of gold at a much higher price regardless if they revalue it or not, which I think they will. I think they'll just let it keep on going higher slowly and no one notices it, right? No one is taking action because they're waiting for the other shoe to drop. And it always has. Will it continue? I don't know. Gold's up 55% this year. It's on pace for its best year ever. Silver's up almost 70%. And I do think that commodities will now be a reflection of a declining dollar. It's not that the commodities are going parabolic just because. It's because the dollar is needs to be devalued in order to reshore manufacturing. And if there's nobility in what President Trump is trying to do, if I'm reading this right, it is the realization that we cannot continue to be the world's superpower without manufacturing anything, with being reliant on the world for everything. And ask yourself this, if the Congressional Budget Office, if the Congressional Budget Office has come out and said by 2031, 100% of all tax revenue will go just to pay the interest on the debt and mandatory entitlement. How do we continue to fund our military to rule the world when military spending is discretional? Yes, this is all together. Buying gold and silver right now is not you're not buying it to get wealthy. You're buying it because it is wealth. and the biggest money in the world, the biggest. It's one thing for me to say the central banks are doing it. It's another thing altogether to say the most sophisticated traders on Wall Street, the institutional traders who are standing for delivery left and right, they know what's coming and I think that's what you follow. >> Okay, good. Yeah. And I want to bring it to down to those brass tax here. Um, real quick, just to note that if if indeed that is the plan, right? um in order to reshore manufacturing. Uh I also will note that plan would also really help servicing the current pile of US debt. >> Of course. >> Right. Exactly. So there's there's multiple reasons why this would be attractive to the government. Um okay. So uh you know Andy, you're in the business of selling transacting with people that want to buy and sell precious metals. What have you noticed over the past week, if past couple weeks, if anything, in terms of the the tenor and the composition of your customers? In other words, you know, you just said there, look, the big guys, the really rich people really get it. Are are you seeing them doubling down here? Is it is it is it big money? Is it smart money? Is it rich money? Is it the regular guy coming in and just trying to sell the, you know, the family silver or, you know, buy with pocket change? What are you noticing? We're seeing nothing in the way of se selling, Adam. Nothing. I mean, literally nothing in the way of selling. And we're for the first time since uh 2021, we're seeing the average person a little bit more come in. And I must have received 30 emails yesterday. They all said something like, "Are you out of silver? Is are you going to run out of silver?" The big money has been buying up gold. to tell you that my cost on a gold buffalo, my cost is north of $200. I've never even dreamt of saying anything like that. That's before I make a penny. Um the big money has been doing this now for the last six months. And and I've mentioned that on shows and and you know, money that is concerned not about making profit but about protecting what they've worked so hard to obtain. Now you're getting a little bit more anxietydriven buying, which I don't think is out of line to be honest with you because I'm watching how fast our inventory is depleting and I have a good inventory. Um, but I talked to my suppliers and their the big money in the wholesale market. They're they're frozen. They don't know what to do. Um, I one of my big suppliers yesterday morning sent me an email first thing in the morning and saying, "We're halting trading." um we're halting trading because until we get a grip on premiums and on um uh availability, I'm going to read to you uh a email or a text message that I got from Michelle McCrory last night. Now, I haven't been able to um validate it myself, okay? But I want to read this to you. I got to turn my phone on. It'll take one second. Um because if it's true, if it is true, it speaks of a US-based dealer, but it also speaks of the Perth Mint in Australia. Um let me just read this to you real quick. If it is true, um it is the beginning of exactly what we're talking about here about some crazy times. She says, "Um, it was OnX." And come on, pop up. Always when you need it to pop up quickly. >> Um, give me a second. Shouldn't take long. The title is Perth Mint shortages, but >> well, while you're pulling it up, I I'll share with folks that >> Yeah, there you go. Um, look, I I don't I haven't heard this, but I I will say that uh many many years ago, I bought Perth Mint uh certificates for gold and silver and platinum, and most of it was in gold. And um golly, this was back uh 20 12 or so. Uh, I ended up having the gold shipped out to me from the Perth Mint. I just said, "You know what? I'm just not comfortable with it being literally on the other side of the world in in the in the city that's the furthest from any other major city in the world." And now you're making me feel good about that decision. >> Yeah. And it's really crazy. It's not opening up. Basically, what it said was that the Perth Mint had shut down >> had shut down delivery. Um, and they're not sending anything out. And I can't even believe I can't get this to open. Oh, here we go. I think it's going to open now. Hang on. Um, bear with me because it's worth listening to. >> All right. Well, I'm going to do a quick Google search while we're talking to here. >> Um, stops delivery. And sorry folks, you're watching real time. Okay, read it. >> Here we go. This is it right here. It says, "Perth suspends silver sales amid global shortage. Australia's Perth Mand halted all silver product sales on October 13th due to surging demand from industrial investment sectors overwhelming supply chains. US dealers like Brian Kuzmar who I don't know of commercial rare coins and precious metals have frozen transactions citing inability to hedge source product and price premiums while Indian markets face empty shelves. The Silver Institute projects a 2025 market deficit of over 200 million ounces pushing spot prices up 4%. So, um, all I can tell you, I don't know if it's true or not, but you're beginning to see things like strain not only in mints and refineries, but also in retail companies. I received an email yesterday from one of my suppliers and I'll see if I can find it real quick. It will take 10 seconds to read it to you if that be the case. Um, yeah, of course my phone I had it shut off when I started, so it's crawling. In essence, they just came and and he just said to me that we're suspending all transactions until we figure out what's going on. And and although it did open back up, these are things I've never seen before. Um I did want to say one thing about a question that I saw up in your chat that I wanted to >> mention. Um, someone said they owned SLV and GLD within their IRA and should they sell it and take the hit tax-wise, there are no tax hits when you sell it within >> within an IRA, you should be fine. Yeah, >> correct. Correct. And yes, I do think the real thing is far better, especially within an IRA. You can own physical metal within your IRA. um you can't ever take possession of GLD and SLVs. So if physical possession to me that is the whole key to a precious metals IRA is the ability to physically possess it if you wish although it is a taxable event through distribution you could say send me my metal and they would do so. Okay. And there are some other alternatives as well, right? I mean, you and I talked about this a little while ago. Um, Andy, previous one, like there are there are ways in which you can own precious metals in your IRA, like physical bullion. To your point, the danger there or the the issue there is is it's often once it's in your hand, that's pretty easy to claim that was a distribution. You're going to be taxed and probably penalized if you're young enough. Yeah. Now, you could own something like um ounce or some of these other um fully backed ETFs that also will deliver to you upon request. So, in other words, you know, you're holding something in your IR in your retirement account um that is giving you exposure to the price of the precious metals. it's fully back. So, you might not have the same worries that that Andy has about SLB or GLD, but you know, things get real wonky and you just say, you know what, I want the metal shipped to me anyways. Those companies, at least that's their their agreement inside these their perspectuses that they will do that for you. Not the cheapest way to get your metal, but a way to get it, you know, when when it's important. >> Yeah. And I I also noticed that Oh, Charlie Pellerin. Charlie Pellerin. Hi, Charlie. You're one of the greatest guys. This is a one of the best guys ever. Thank you for the kind words, Charlie. >> Someone um mentioned that Junk Silver Pre65 is the I see a couple people mentioning it. I was able to buy $18 million worth below spot. Um the dealer said to me more or less, look, um he's a big wholesaler friend of mine and he said, look, you take it all, I'll give it to you below spot. This is a guy that's very wealthy and he does this position. >> When was it? >> Uh less than a month ago. >> Okay. >> And so we still have probably half of it left, I think. I don't know how much, but we have a good amount left. But we're able to sell it at barely over spot. Literally barely over. Um at the cheapest price in the United States. You want the best value. This during the pandemic, I would have paid you 11 or 12 over the price of silver to buy it back from you. next to silver eagles. It was the most expensive item that there was. But this is how bad it had gotten up until just recently in terms of mainstream. At the same time, what one of the things that I found so interesting about this market, Adam, was that at the same time you had record participation by the public in the stock market. All-time high mompaw retail in the stock market over 55%. all-time record high on leverage with option exposure and all-time high margin exposure over a trillion dollars. All-time high for the retail public. At the same time, the insiders are selling between two and four billion a week since since June and and Bezos selling 7 billion in Amazon stock and Buffett on 500 billion in cash and all of the institutional traders moving the other direction and and standing for delivery on physical metal and comx. In other words, the public is all loaded into the equity market. The big money is leaving the equity market and buying copious amounts of silver and gold more so than we've ever seen, not just the central banks. >> Um, and what could possibly go wrong, right? Well, so in in in terms of junk silver, I was able to buy because this guy doesn't hedge his position and he let it run all the way up. He said, "You take it all, I'll sell it to you below spot." Which I bought it. There are good values out there still. I don't know how long that lasts for, but you look at the silver eagle and it's anything but. You look at every major online company out there. I'll probably be the cheapest on silver eagles, but you're not going to find any major company out there that will sell you silver eagles in quantity probably at under seven bucks an ounce over spot just like that when three weeks ago they would have been sold to you for four bucks over. And things are changing very very rapidly right now. Um there's still good deals out there, but I don't know how long that lasts for if this continues. >> Yeah, I mean I guess it sort of depends on on how much the demand continues to maintain from here, but right now the momentum seems to be be higher. Um quick question for you Andy. So when it comes to the different premia for the different form factors so like in gold you mentioned um uh you know people are willing to pay the most or or demanding the most uh for the buffalo >> right it's become very expensive for you to buy right why does that I'm just curious like what is driving that because technically a sovereign coin it's not really supposed to be you know a collectible asset that that that appreciates with with collectibility It's really just supposed to be a great representation of an ounce of gold. So why pay more for a buffalo, than an eagle, than a maple leaf when it's really all just, you know, an ounce of gold at the end of the day? >> Well, that's a good question and let's let's break it down. First of all, this is all controlled by the primary distributors, right? There's about six or seven of them. Miles Franklin was nominated by one of those primary distributors to be one of 27 US men authorized resellers about 20 years ago. At the time, it was Credential Bee who got bought by Jeff. And coincidentally, Jeff just came out and said their next target for gold is 6,600. They know gold very well. But those primary distributors buy from all of the major mints. And when the mints run out of product, those distributors have everyone begging them for product. they jack up the premiums not only to buy but also to sell. Uh right now the US man I I they're not making any 2025 gold buffaloos right now and I don't think they have any plans to do so. They haven't made any platinum eagles in three years. So premiums on things like platinum eagles if you can find them are north of $200. Way north of $200 to to buy platinum which is way lower than the price of gold. Right? So percentage wise way higher. In fact I look at one of the biggest distributors in America. I look at their balance sheet right now, what they have or their inventory sheet. No platinum at all. Zero. They It says platinum maples sold out. Platinum Valkcami bars sold out. When you talk about the Buffalo and the Eagle, you have 11 states and many more considering it that are talking about legal tender laws. Almost all of them mention US gold and silver coins as legal tender. The demand for the gold coins made by the US is way higher than anything else. But you're right, gold is gold is gold. It's kind of like this. You're having a party, a big party. You're having the Tagert uh family reunion party that coincides with the Super Bowl. Your team is in the Super Bowl. You got everyone coming to your house, 200 people. Your wife says, "Adam, you need to go to Costco and buy soda and hot dogs and hamburgers for the barbecue." So, you go there and you're thinking, "Geez, I'm going to have 240 people. I need 500 cans of soda." So you go down the soda aisle and you see Coca-Cola and you see generic brand soda from Kir Kirkland. That's 80 cents a can less than the Coca-Cola. You say, "Well, geez, if I just buy half CocaCola and half Kirkland brand, 250 times 80, that's a couple hundred bucks. I can buy the hot dogs and hamburgers with that." That's what you do. You have a great barbecue. You got two buckets sitting outside. Half with Coca-Cola and name brand soda and half with Kirkland brand soda. Now, in the end, which bucket do you think will be emptied first? And and you're right. If if you die in a thirst with a hamburger in your hand outside at a barbecue, you'll drink the generic soda. They all drink the same. But the American products in this country have demand far greater than anything else. And when you add into it the legal tender laws that are being passed that say and mention specifically American coins, there's just a demand for the American coins, both gold, silver, platinum, and and um well, gold, silver, and platinum that that they can't keep up with. They are the model of inefficiency. They are horrible at keeping up with demand, and as a result, the primary distributors jack up the prices. So you can buy other items, but in the end, if you want the greatest amount of liquidity and demand, and I think when people buy stuff in this industry, they don't think about that enough. They don't think about the backside of the trade. It's very easy to be pennywise and pound foolish. And I think that you can have the greatest thing in the world, but if it lacks demand, what good is it? You want something that someone says, "Yeah, I want it. Absolutely. Give it to me." I don't want to have to heaggle with you about saying, "No, but this is really great, too." And so whether you're talking gold bars from Costco, which are also getting expensive and hard to get, or Canadian Maple Leafs or Krueger, they're all an ounce of gold, but the real demand in this country is for US mint products. And unfortunately, the mint that produces it does a very poor job at providing adequate supply. And in particular, when you go through a period of time like we saw for the last year plus where there's tepid demand at best by the mainstream, they have no incentive to jack up supply um until we get to a position like this is exactly what we saw for four years during the pandemic. >> Yeah. >> 134 $15 premiums on silver eagles. 2000 plus dollar buyback premiums on gold eagles and buffaloos. And now the mint just isn't making enough Buffaloos. And you look at the amount of silver eagles they made this year. my mind, they'll be a collector's item. Literally, like the 1996 silver eagle where they hardly made any. They've hardly made any. Premiums are only going to go higher on Americanmade coins. >> Okay. All right. We only have a couple minutes left. So, um, we got to get to brass tax and relatively short answers here, but, um, so right now, Andy, in in this market, right, which is a hot market, tight market. Um, what's your advice to people around buying silver? Um, let's start with a person who hasn't bought any. I imagine you're going to say close your, you know, just pinch your nose and buy in and get an initial perspect, initial position. For those that actually already have exposure, is it just, hey, just keep your dollar cost averaging going on, or is it, hey, maybe wait a little bit, see if we get lower prices uh before we we take off again? Uh what would you say to them? >> I wouldn't I wouldn't do that. I'd cost average. Cost average is the only way to smooth out the uncertainty curve. You know, we're all waiting for the other shoe to drop. What if it doesn't? What if it keeps going higher? We are breaking through a 45-year cup and handle the strongest technical formation I've ever seen. Um, and and and I do think you should definitely build a core position and then cost average your your your further acquisitions. And right now, the best value by far is pre65 constitutional silver. It's not even close >> really. Okay. In terms of the the cheapest way to to buy an ounce of silver, >> cheapest. And and during the pandemic, it was the second most highest premium difficult to get item period for four years. >> Why was that? because you can't reproduce it. It hasn't been made for over 60 years. Okay? And and the utility that it gets, 14 dimes is almost exactly 1 ounce of silver. So if things ever really were to get to a very high level or the dollar was was really something that was sliding precipitously, in theory, you'd have 14 transactions with 14 dimes versus one transaction with a silver round or silver eagle or silver maple. >> But if I'm not if I want 1 oz coins, there's six major mints. US too expensive maybe Canada, Austria, Australia, South Africa, United Kingdom. It's the Bratannia, the Krueger, and the Kangaroo, the Philarmonic, um, and the Maple Leaf. Those are all better values than the Silver Eagle right now, even though I like the Eagle better. >> Okay. All right. Um, somebody said that they watched a live stream of yours last night and your your advice given the current market environment was don't sell your silver and maybe just keep dollar cost averaging. Their interpretation was you were saying gold is still something worth continuing to buy at this point. Maybe buying a little bit more aggressively than dollar cost averaging. Is that true or >> what I said was what I said was it's not time to trade your silver for gold yet. There will come a time to do it when the ratio corrects. It's an anomaly where the ratio is for 5,000 years the ratio was 16 to1, right? Um it's coming out of the ground at 7 to1. There will come a time to trade your silver into gold. But yeah, I wouldn't I look I think gold's going to go higher than anyone thinks possible. It is being reintegrated into the monetary system 100%. So, you know, to put all your money into silver if you're buying precious metals, it is a better value and it does have an angle. I still think I wouldn't ignore gold. And even though it's gone up, you know, high, uh, I think it's going to go much higher. Not straight up, but I really do think it'll go higher than people think. If if Judy is right, and if I'm right, and they're going to peg it to the back end of the Treasury market, it has to be much, much higher. Luke Roman says they'll let it go to seven or 8,000 and then they'll revalue it from a higher level so as to not have to revalue it from such a low level. Luke Roman is as smart as it gets. So, I wouldn't discount what he says either. Okay, thanks. All right, I'm gonna have to start wrapping it up here. Um I will note um a couple things. So, first off, um folks, if you enjoy seeing us do these special report live streams in response to things that are, you know, going on in real time in the world, would like to see us do more of them in the future on different topics. Let me know in the um in the live chat or in the comments section below if you're watching the replay. And of course, we'll we'll do more of that. We want to do more of the things you want us to do more of. Um, I also want to give special appreciation to Andy today. Uh, you know, as you guys know, he comes on the channel um from time to time and he always comes when I ask him to. This week, I'm asking him to do triple duty. Uh, and this is all why he's out of the country and getting bombarded with calls from clients and everything. So, Andy, I very much appreciate you taking the time to do this. >> Adam, like I've said to you from day one, you are one of the most respected, best analysts I've ever seen in this industry. I mean that sincerely. I hope all of your viewers already know that and it's my honor to be here. I would uh come in from the sun at risk getting in trouble with my wife any day to be here. So, thank you for having me 100%. >> You're a good man. I I I promise to minimize my request that could get you in trouble with your wife there. But >> it's all right. I'm used to it by now. I'm used to it. I'm good at deflecting it. >> And a reminder for folks that Andy is going to be participating in the Thoughtful Money Fall Conference um this Saturday. Um, and so we'll get to expand the discussion beyond silver in there. There'll also be some additional live Q&A opportunity for for Andy. Um, we will also have a few of the people that Andy mentioned, most notably Judy Shelton will be speaking at the conference. And um, I did a little bit of pre-recording with her and I'll I'll send you the clip of this after the conference. Sandy, but I asked her one question that she gave sort of a a fairly long three minute soliloquy answer to >> and it's one of the most meaningful three minutes I've ever recorded in my career. Um, so look forward to sharing that with you and then obviously with everyone come to the conference. >> She's an amazing lady and I think everyone should check her out. I mean there there are very few people I've ever spoken to as well who get it quite the way she does. So yeah, I'm looking forward to seeing that. >> Yeah. and and hopefully her I you know her concept of a um goldbacked US Treasury as you were talking about there um hopefully that gets adopted and and she had to be a little bit koi at least when I was talking to her but I asked her you know if if that is gaining any traction in the new administration and the impression I took from her answer was she couldn't be super specific about it but but yes um and that would really be a real thrill if that were to happen. So most important question here for you Andy is >> all right if people are watching this and saying you know what I really need to increase my exposure to silver and possibly gold as well where should they go um as most folks I think watching know um for now much of this year uh Miles Franklin has been thoughtful Money's endorsed um precious metals solution provider and um you have been very kind to say that hey if people just email you at info@milefranklin.com and that's the the email address here on the screen that you will make sure that either you or one of your top lieutenants there at Miles Franklin really gives sort of white glove service to thoughtful money viewers. Correct. >> 100%. And and it's really important that they put thoughtful money in the subject line or somewhere embedded within the email. We'll give you a price list that will be as good or better than anywhere in the country. We update it two or three times a week. You find better prices, let us know. Chances are we'll beat it if we can. Um, but we want to give your people special white glove service and um, take the time to answer their questions and that's important where we are right now. So, yes, info Miles Franklin. Any questions you've heard here, questions on IRA, questions on just getting the prices. Um, let us know. We'll work with you. We'll make sure it's a very, very, very good experience. You have my promise on that. And if they're directed specifically to me, please put I need to talk to Andy and I'll get back to you myself. All right, Andy. Um, for for that and for coming on and for so many reasons. I just so very much appreciate you. Got to wrap up here because I got to go um do a recording uh in two minutes from here and I'll let you get back to to your time uh there outside of the country. Again, >> my wife will thank you. >> You got it. Everyone stay well. I look forward to seeing you in a couple days. Thanks, Adam. >> Thanks, Andy. All right, everybody else. Thanks so much for watching. Bye >> bye.