Stephanie Pomboy: Get Ready For A Wild Ride In 2026

Summary

• Precious Metals: Strongly bullish on gold and silver amid physical shortages, de-dollarization, and policy-driven currency debasement; not selling physical holdings absent a decisive policy shift.
• Energy Upside: Constructive on oil and gas due to secular demand and geopolitics (Iran/Venezuela), with potential rotation from precious metal miners into the broader energy complex.
• Inflation Risk: Expect hotter inflation in 2026 as fiscal and monetary policy run the economy hot (tax refunds, tariffs), creating tension with the Fed and supporting hard assets.
• Weaker Dollar/De-dollarization: Weaponization of reserves and BRICS diversification away from USD underpin ongoing demand for hard assets and commodities.
• Housing Correction: Limited relief from mortgage rates implies prices must adjust; new vs. existing price bifurcation and a sizable supply pipeline point to downward pressure on home values.
• Rates and Japan: Potential yen-support interventions may force Treasury sales, pressuring long-end yields and markets while reinforcing the hard-asset thesis.
• Market Volatility: Expect choppy markets and possible divergence between a sturdier economy and weaker equities; volatility viewed as inexpensive with policy surprises a key risk.
• No Single-Stock Pitches: No specific tickers were promoted; focus remained on sector-level exposures (precious metals, energy) and macro positioning.

Transcript

All right, and we should be live. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money founder and your host, Adam Tagert, welcoming you here for another monthly macro maven marvelous update from the macro maven herself, Stephanie Pomboy. Hey, Steph, how you doing? >> I'm great, Adam. How are you? >> Good. Happy New Year. Hope you had a wonderful holiday. >> I sure did. Uh although it seems like forever ago at this point, the first two weeks of the year feel like you know a decade already. So >> I know I know. Well, we titled this uh get ready for a wild ride in 2026 if the first >> two weeks of the year any example of that. I think we're we're spot on there. Um did Willilamina get uh did Santa leave some good snacks for her under the tree this year? >> I mean every day is Christmas for her as I'm sure the same for Boston and Bodega. They probably are equally spoiled. I have to imagine >> they had a good time. We kind of spoiled them more with with uh hikes and whatnot. They have they have loved it. Um their labs they had but they you know it's a breed that was bred in the cold, you know, Newfoundland North, but they had never seen snow before and it has like unlocked something in them. They just can't get enough of it. They love it. So >> that's awesome. Good. >> They're doing well. And speaking of Willamina though, I think I hear her gently there in the background. the soothing sounds of bulldog. >> Yes. >> Well, I'm glad she joined us here today. Um all right. Well, look, there's an awful lot to talk about. Um I also pulled our audiences on X uh to see if they had questions. I got a ton. So, I'm going to ask my questions. I'm going to ask some of theirs. If there's time left over, we'll open it up to folks watching here in the live chat. Um, but most important uh topic to start with, Steph, is that your and Grant Williams's Super Happy Terrific Day conference is just a month away. >> It's fast approaching. I know. I can't believe it. It feels like we um when we started planning this that it was like forever down the road and then I blink and all of a sudden it's here. And I'm so excited. I know I mentioned this last time that you're going to join us for that because I think that just adds such a fun element to the whole proceedings. So, um, super excited to have you and we've got a great lineup including people that you often have here on your program. So, so it'll be a great a great opportunity to mix it up with people like yourself and Grant and me and the people at Copernic as well as Tom Mlelen and Tom Hanig. Um, Yeah. So, yeah, it's going to be a fun, it's an interesting and diverse cast of characters. Um, and like you said, you know, given what how this year has started, um, the timing could be >> could be fortuitous. It could definitely not be more timely. All right. So, for folks that would like to attend or at least learn about the event, where should they go? >> Yeah. Um, well, I will post this on my Twitter. I have posted it and I'll I'll pin it on my Twitter feed at s pomboy um a link to to register or you could go to um uh macromavens.com and uh inquire there but let me post it. It's probably best for me to just post it on the Twitter um and there's a registration link and it is um immediately after President's weekend. So, it's September, sorry, September, February, uh, February 17th and 18th in sunny South Florida in St. Petersburg, which is just a really cute town and it's a beautiful hotel that we do the venue at, an old historic hotel. So, great opportunity to get out of the cold weather for a little bit. >> Yeah, I I can't wait to go for for the fun and the people, but but also, yeah, to get out of the cold that we're having here and we'll spend some time there. So folks, if you want to join us for fun in the sun with uh Steph and Grant and uh the A-listers that they've accumulate or assembled for this event, please come join us. Um all right, Steph. Well, look, um the topic that is on everybody's mind this morning, especially in regards to you, who's been such a champion for the precious metals, is uh >> now what? >> Yeah, now I mean we we're we're in a clear meltup at least for silver for sure. But but both gold and silver as of this morning uh hit all-time highs yet again. Silver futures were uh at one point at least above $92 an ounce. I can't believe those words are leaving my mouth. >> Uh the Shanghai price is, you know, $10 or more above that. So it's already tripledigit silver in dollar terms uh over in China. Um, so I I guess my main question to you is just what's your response to what's going on right now? And then I've got a whole bunch of follow-up questions like, okay, so, you know, when do you start determining whether when it's time to sell and da da da da da. >> Yeah. Now, I saw the response to your Twitter question people and there were a lot of questions about when to get out. Um, and and so that's definitely a timely and interesting topic. Um, and and I will confess that I think like you, uh, the move has unfolded much more rapidly than I expected. I mean, I did expect and I still expect to see gold, you know, north of $6,000, you know, in the notsodistant future, but the speed with which we've gotten there has has taken me by surprise. >> Surprise. So, sorry to interject, but I was tell I was trying to explain this to my wife the other night. I'm like, you know, she knows that we bought precious metals a long, long time ago. And I'm like, you know, they've done exactly what I thought they were going to do price-wise in terms of getting to the prices that I bought them because I thought they were going to get to. They just decided to wait a whole bunch of years to do nothing and then make it all up in a year. Yeah. >> Yeah. Oh my god. Yeah. It really has been an emotional roller coaster because for that long stretch of time we were basically like oh my god is this ever you know all all the pieces were falling into place but the metals weren't really responding and especially not the miners you know that was the thing you started to see like for in gold for example prices move up and the miners were just dead dead money um and then all of a sudden the catchup has been spectacular and and a little unnerving be frankly because of the speed with which it's And I I do joke sometimes with people like maybe part of the reason why we find it unnerving is just that we've been so bruised and bloodied after, you know, sitting hunkered in the trenches for so long um that this just feels like an out-of- body experience. And you know, you never think of uh the metals or the miners as memetock equivalents. you know, you don't never imagine yourself in that kind of feeling like, oh my god, this is just a massive move and I'm making, you know, all kinds of money in these crazy things. Um, and here we are. And it it does it's scary because it does have those similarities to what we were seeing with some of those bean stocks. But the difference obviously is that the fundamental arguments are >> right. Well, and it does look I mean it the price action now looks not only similarly looks even more extreme than the previous two maybe not the 1981 but but the the previous two peaks that we've seen in the metals markets which were then followed by dramatic crashes and then dead money for a decade. So there are a lot of people who are worried that is this just the third iteration of that? >> Yeah. And I mean I I'm loathed to use the phrase that it's different this time, but there are fundamental um reasons why gold has moved this quickly. Um, and I think a lot of them obviously are related to what we're seeing coming out of, you know, first off, they're things that are related to the last, you know, decade plus of excesses that we've built up um that we have kind of here in the in the West, uh, blindly ignored. You know, I'm talking about our fiscal situation. Um, and we've kind of just assumed that we could continue to borrow as long as we wanted. And meanwhile, we knew that our foreign creditors were starting to diversify away from dollars. And yet, no one was hitting the alarm bells because it just seemed like it was so glacial and none of it was really going to add up to anything material. And frankly, as many times as people like me and you were warning that this is eventually going to reach a point where there's going to be a come to Jesus moment, it never seemed to happen. So, you know, the deficits kept getting bigger and bigger and foreigners kept diversifying more and more away and it never had any impact. And now I think this whole those trends have hit warp speed. So they've gone from sort of glacial moves in the background into overdrive and that's in part, you know, started of course with the weaponization of reserves, weaponization of the dollar when we froze Russia's reserves after the invasion of the Ukraine, but also um you know when Trump came in and started this tariff diplomacy and basically using that as a tool for not just you know I know the purported goal is to um you know write our trade imbalance, but it appears like it's much more about geop moves on the geopolitical chessboard >> and national security specifically. And then you see this action in Venezuela. And you've got to assume that any of the BRICS countries who now see the US come in and they're sitting on top of the oil reserves and the gold reserves um are saying, you know, we felt like we needed to get our money, you know, uh shift out of paper fiat currencies into hard assets before this, but now we really got to, you know, we got to hurry it up. >> Yeah. And you know, so I talked to Andy Sheckchman a lot. Um he's the CEO of Miles Franklin and and that's Thoughtful Money's um endorsed precious metals solutions provider. And Andy is in the trenches. You know, he he's he's out there buying and selling uh you know, wholesale and then retail. So um you know what I love talking to him about is he's really got a good insider sense on what's happening, you know, in in the plumbing of the system. And this really does seem to be a story of shortage of supply of physical supply. And um you know there there's lots of things you can do to monkey with financial assets, >> but you can't really monkey with ounces much, right? >> Yeah. You can rehypothecate paper gold as much as you want, but when someone actually demands delivery, you actually have to have the bars or coins or whatever it is to to deliver. And it's interesting because this I know we'll get to it in a little bit, but it gets back to the the um outlook for GDP because everyone's now uh touting this 5% plus GDP number in the fourth quarter that we're going to get. >> Um but a huge part of that is gold exports, >> right? >> Um and so, you know, we can go through the numbers, but it's not a reflection of strength in the economy. Quite the contrary, it's a reflection of the crumbling confidence in the dollar and fiat money in general in that people aren't even content to hold gold virtually. They actually want to physically have it. Um, and so I think part of that again goes back to this the administration's push which obviously I happen to support. I think it's a noble endeavor to try to, you know, this peace through strength and, you know, we don't want uh these crazy dictators running uh country. We certain certainly don't want China with its belt and road to come in and really be determining uh what's going on in South America in our hemisphere or Greenland for example. So, you know, I understand all of that. I just think that the unintended consequence of those policies has been to accelerate the diversification out of the dollar into hard assets. And frankly, you know, there's no indication why that should change. You know, it's not like the administration is suddenly going to say, oh, okay, you know, we're going to abandon our efforts on this front. um nor necessarily should they, but um we'll have to, you know, pay the price in terms of this this weaker dollar. And frankly, I'm not sure that that's anything that the administration is really that negative on. You know, I think Trump is generally >> Well, because it helps with trade. Yeah. >> Yes. Yeah. >> Yeah. Okay. So, um I mean, look, Steph, we could spend the whole time just talking about the precious metals. We got a ton of other um topics I'd love to try to get to in the time we have here, but let's let's get to the key questions on the precious metals here. So, >> I don't even know. I've lost track. Silver's up what 140% or something like that. >> It was 25 at the beginning of last year, wasn't it? Somewhere around it was under 30. So, it's almost tripled. >> So, yeah. Is that a is that over a double? I don't know. It's it's it's crazy. Um, and gold is, like I said, it's at all time highs, too. I mean, we're we're So, the the tractor beam to $100 silver, I think, is pretty locked in at this point. Um, you know, no guarantees we'll get there, but the closer we get to 100, the more everybody wants to pull it there. >> At 46 something, 5,000 gold is starting to pull its tractor beam too to that price. Um, so you know, there very well could still be some some momentum here, particularly because we've got the pull of those those large rod numbers which aren't that far away anymore. But given how far it's all come this fast, a do you have a a a formula at which you're like, okay, you know what? The gains have been too good for in so short of a time. I need to take some gains here. Uh, and if you do have have a a plan to sell or strategy for selling, what do you put it into? Especially if you've got concerns about, you know, the fiat currency purchasing power and all that stuff. >> Yeah. I mean, I think unless or until there's some policy shift that is going to somehow shore up support for the dollar. um and not just here in the US, but a similar implementation of policies in the G7. Um it's hard to argue that gold is going to go lower. You know, it just seems like it it maybe it's not going to keep going up at this rate, and I would be very surprised if it did keep going up at this rate. >> But the argument for selling strikes me as fairly threadbear right now. Um, and I think one of the things as we come into this year and we've got the impact of the one big beautiful bill with the change in tax withholdings and the huge uh 150 billion plus tax refunds that will be coming. Um, now we've got retail gasoline prices below $3 a gallon, which is, you know, a huge relief to low-end consumers. Um the economy the outlook for growth is obviously stronger but along with that the outlook for inflation is also hotter and then as you see uh you know the shift toward actual hard assets you're seeing that reflected in commodity prices more broadly which again you know is the tinder into things like the PPI which then ultimately feeds through to the CPI. So, I think we're in an environment where just stepping back and looking at the administration's efforts to have >> more uh stimulative monetary and fiscal policies. Um that you should generally assume that inflation is going to tilt hotter than cooler. Um and that creates this kind of um tension between uh interest rates, you know, and and the objectives of the administration because they obviously are pushing very hard for the Fed to be very accommodative. >> But if growth is strong and inflation is heating back up, >> what is the case for that? And if they do go ahead and ignore those indicators that inflation is is starting to pick back up again and the Fed cuts rates or you know expands its balance sheet anyway, then you're just putting more pressure on the currency as a valve for those sins, >> right? >> Which again in yours even more to the benefit of gold. So I guess you know right now when I step back and look at 2026 and it seems very clear for the first two weeks of the year that the administration is all in on that they are going to All right folks you're probably seeing Steph freeze um is what I'm saying >> lose me for a minute there >> she's back um so so so you froze But I think you're getting to a point that I was going to talk with you about anyways. You've crammed like five subjects I wanted to talk with you about into this past answer, which is awesome. Um, but it sounds like I I think you were about to say it looks like the administration's going to do whatever it can to run the economy as hot as possible up to the midterm elections to try to hold on to Congress. >> Yes, absolutely. And so you want to be positioned for um you know stronger inflation readings uh which obviously would be uh negative in terms of this issue we've been fighting all along which is that long rates have refused to come down and if they didn't come down last year what's the argument for them coming down against a backdrop of highly stimulative monetary fiscal policies. >> Okay. So I got a whole bunch of questions here for you. Let's let's just try to bank through them real quick. So what I took away from what you said to the earlier question of what do you sell your gold for? I'm taking from you, hey until until and unless we adopt a very different form of of monetary and economic policy, you're not selling your ounces. Um, uh, minors might be a different story and we can talk about that in just a little bit. But am I correct in that? >> Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think as loaded as I am to say it, um, we're on the door doorstep of a regime change in terms of the monetary. >> Okay. Steph, you froze up there again. If you can hear me, what you might want to do is just hop out of StreamYard uh and hop back in. Um folks, while we're waiting for her to rejoin us here, um I'll tell you what I I'm going to talk with her about when she she gets back in here. So, Stephanie, you know, has been a There she is. Uh Stephanie has been a um you know she's sort of been on team disinflation and deflation for all of the uh economic concerns that you know she and I have talked about for many many appear prior appearances on this channel. Um >> sorry. >> No, no, no. It's okay. That's okay. But you're back. Okay. >> I was trying to check my Okay. Yeah, you're still you're still kind of freezing up on us, Steph here. So, um folks, hang with us. We'll we'll give Steph a moment or two to keep trying to troubleshoot here. Um Steph must be on a dialup modem. This is Johnny Blades. Um, so, uh, but but what's interesting, and I talked with Steph a little bit before we we hopped on the camera here, is, um, you know, as I've been mentioning, the administration is getting increasingly aggressive, uh, in terms of its policy, economic policies, uh, I think to try to, as we were saying there, to run the economy hot uh, leading up to the midterm elections. Um, you know, I think the administration knows that affordability uh, has been weighing hugely on people's minds. It was a big reason why Trump got elected. uh for the second time in the first place. Um and so uh you know now we've got everything they did last year with the big beautiful bill and and you know extending the tax cuts and the deregulation and the the tariff revenue coming in and the trade deals uh and uh you know the administration especially Bent and guys like Lutnik are saying hey that's going to create a bunch of tailwinds for this coming year. We then, as Steph just mentioned, you know, we looks like we are definitely going to have about $150 billion dollars or more worth of stimulus coming from the largest tax refund in history here. Folks are going to go out and spend that. Um, and then, and I've mentioned this on X, uh, I just listened to a an interview which I highly recommend you listen to if you've got the time and interest. It's with Chimath Palipatia, um, one of the guys from the All-In podcast, and he interviews Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary in detail, and they really go through tariffs and whether you hate them, whether you love them. It's really helpful in understanding kind of the logic behind how the administration is, you know, thinks about using them and also just mechanistically how they they work. It's really fascinating. Um, and you know, you you hear Lutnik explain it and you're like, "Wow, this this really is putting a lot of money in America's pockets." A lot of net money in America's pockets, you know, coming from the the rest of the world here. Not just attacks on the consumer, but really money coming from outside of our borders into our borders. Um, and then for everything else around that um that I mentioned earlier, you know, Lutnik saying, "Hey, we're going to start seeing some real tailwinds to the economy in 2026 really starting about now." and he says, "Look, I think easy we're at 5% GDP growth for 2026, and I can see instances in which we're at 6% GDP growth." And so, Steph, I was sort of putting words in your mouth, so feel free to to massage them in any way, but but I think you, like me, are starting to shift your thinking about how bad 2026 could be, at least economically. Let's put the market aside for a second. Yeah. But e economically, I think the recession odds are are are lessening um because of all this, you know, all these tailwinds to the economy that the administration is is is forcing onto the economy, if we'll say. Um and and that likely um uh yeah, it's probably it's probably not going to be a year the wheels come off the economy. You know, not going to say never. I'm just going to say I'm just saying those odds are are dwindling. So folks like you and I who were pretty pessimistic about the economy say a quarter ago, I'm less pessimistic on its performance in 2026. And let me just say one last thing, Stephan, I'll let you all this >> is, you know, when Trump came out with the um we're going to we're going to buy 200 billion of mortgage back securities. I was like, you know what, I hate that. I totally hate it, but I'm like, okay, now I'm convinced the administration's going to do whatever it takes to prop things up. To me, that was a clear sign that they're like, "I don't care. Whatever we have to do, no matter how odious we think it might be, we're gonna just do everything we can to to hopefully get the average person to feel a little bit better about their personal finances when they walk into the voting booth in November." >> Yeah, absolutely. The problem is, of course, in the details. So, um, as is always the case. Um, and and this is a topic that I've been really because I came to the same conclusion as you is it was pretty clear they're just going to throw everything at the wall on the affordability issue and and try to get uh that midterm vote short up. Um, but what they're trying to do essentially is to bring up the bottom of the K, you know, this whole K-shaped economy notion. And and essentially what they're saying is we're now singularly focused on the bottom of the K. And to bring the bottom of the K up, let's use a couple of examples. Number one, they're talking about capping 10 credit card rates at 10%. Well, as all the come out and said, you know, it's not a viable business model for us at 10%. Now, maybe that's an exaggeration. It's probably viable at some number between 10 and 28 which they're currently charging you know but the point is so it'll be a negotiation but ultimately there are unintended consequences of the administration coming in it's the equivalent of wage and price controls coming in and saying this is the interest rate that you're allowed to charge at which point the banks will say okay well we're not going to lend to those lowquality people because doesn't justify the risk of being exposed to those people. So now, and I was talking to one of my clients who's a um financials guy, all he does is financials over the weekend after that credit card tweet went out. um about the impact perversely on driving people to buy now pay later options which are probably even more fraugh with risk because if you can't borrow on your credit card well you'll you'll do all these other things and go to you know back in the day when payday lenders actually were flush so now it's replaced by buy now pay later but so there are unintended consequences of these things that aren't great in the long run um and then you look at housing and this is the one that I think is the most important is it's obviously the key to the affordability issue. Um, and right now the administration is trying everything to get mortgage rates down. And this idea of having Fanny Freddy buy 200 billion in NBS is great except that they ramped up their purchases last year. They had been buying all along behind the curtain that people weren't paying attention to. So, they have already been ramping up their purchases. All that's accomplished this year is that they're going to kind of sustain that pace and it's just going to offset the QT that the Fed is still doing on MBS in its own book. So, it's essentially a wash. I don't see that that's going to materially move the needle on mortgage rates. didn't move the needle last year and this year they're fighting the Federal Reserve balance sheet unless or until that changes which is another concept that you know I think will happen down the road but in the meantime >> given the policies as stated now I don't expect a whole lot of relief on the mortgage rate side to happen which means the >> which is what we don't need I mean if we're trying I mean look I get politically you don't want people to feel like their houses are going down in value right but at the same time if the if the issue is unaffordability, they need lower home prices. That's the answer. >> But that's the thing. So that's exactly where I was going is, okay, if the rates aren't going to be the relief, it's got to be the prices. And if it's the prices, then what you're doing is you're taking the top end of the K and saying you're going to go down so that these guys can first-time home buyers can finally afford a home. you're going to take a hit to your net worth by having your housing, which is your number one asset in most people's case, >> go lower. It also um you know, from a nerdy economist standpoint is the asset that has the largest wealth effect because it's so important. So, it is generally understood that the impact of the wealth effect from housing is 10 times that of stocks. So as much as the administration has this noble goal of improving affordability, the downside of capping or even you know cutting out causing a decline in that real estate net worth for the high end could more than offset the benefit in terms of the whole impact on the economy. know you'll get confidence boosted at the low end but at the expense of the high end and as we know awful as it is the high end is the engine that drives this economy. So you know it's a pushpull because they might get more votes at the low end because people start to feel relief but it will come at the expense of you know a a very important sort of constituent to them. So, you know, this is the bigger question for me is all this um policym that's so frenetic and is clearly designed to focus on the bottom of the K. And you know, he said on the campaign trail and Besset reiterated it. Wall Street's had their day, it's Main Street's turn. And Wall Street ignored that message and just was like, yeah, whatever. You know, it'll be fine for us. Now there's this is the risk for the economy this year. It's not from a macroeconomic standpoint. It's that the equity market begins to fall apart. And that's the risk to the economy is that this increase in volatility associated with staying up on Saturday nights to read true social tweets and try to figure out what it means for your, you know, trades on Monday. um begins to unnerve and rattle investors and we see a riskoff move and that would be the thing that would pull the rug out from the economy. That's the concern I have now. >> Okay, that that's a great point. A couple of things. Um first off, not surprised that Wall Street has shrugged it off, right? Uh because I mean stocks are pretty much near all-time highs right now, right? I mean like whatever you say whatever you want. My assets keep going up and you're fighting to bring rates down. like you're you're doing everything that asset owners love, right? So, they haven't really felt any pain yet. And and one thing I've been saying recently and and I mentioned it earlier >> um that while I'm becoming more optimistic that the economy >> will have a better year than I initially thought, that doesn't mean the markets are going to have a better year. And and and I think we've for so long they've been so tightly correlated that everybody just thinks of the same thing. And as you and I have talked about, Stephanie, over time, the market got so big, it it really became the tail that wagged the dog, right? Um, so everybody now thinks, well, you know, so, you know, the market dictates what's going to go on. Well, this year, I'm not saying it's going to be, but I I see an increasing probability that that we could have an economy that does this while we have a market that that does that, right? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. No, I mean I think the the um the only concern about that again is the impact on the high end and numerically just mathematically if they pull back from spending the impact that that would have. There's also the you know if they actually do impose things like say for example a 10% cap on credit cards there is a profit impact there for banks. So yeah, their profits will go from absurdly large to modestly large, you know. So um but that has an impact that ripples through the economy as well. And obviously um if we do start uh imposing caps on different rates they can charge, you're basically cutting off the credit lever that also is a key driver of growth for the economy. So I guess my point is just there are a ton of risks out there and the markets as ever until just recently seemed to be priced for zero risks and everything just being smooth sailing and none of the narrative strung together. The economy was going to be strong but the Fed was going to cut rates 100 basis points and uh you know everything was going to be great and I don't know it just profits were going to be double digits and stocks were going to grow to the moon. Um but the Fed had to ease for no apparent reason. >> We haven't even talked yet about the um the the investigation of PAL. Um if we have time, we'll we'll get there, but um let me pull in a couple of things that that you you mentioned here. So, um, you seem to think that if the that the impact of of the policies that the administration is aggressively pursuing here may likely be inflationary, right? And and uh, you already explain why. Let me ask you this. So, I I I get the argument. Um, but I look at two really key components into inflation at least as measured by CPI, right? And one is housing. >> Yeah. >> Right. And you don't expect that the mortgage back securities purchasing to really make that much of a difference. >> Yeah. >> And housing is disinflating and deflating depending on what market you're in. Yeah. >> Right. And it's 40% of the calculation for CPI. So I I think there's a mathematical bias to disinflation in 2026 just all things being equal. Yeah. Right. Um and and you know with with a 40% share of of the calculation where housing goes >> kind of where CPI goes for the most part. >> Yeah. >> Um then we also have oil and I want to ask you some questions about oil in a bit if we have time. But oil prices are low and there's a lot of things that that are are happening that could keep oil prices lower, right? I mean, the whole Venezuela thing, if we happen to have peace in the Ukraine at some point this year, uh, whatever. Um, but there are things that keep that energy input cost low, right? You mentioned consumers love low gas prices, but you also love the the, you know, oil goes into everything. So, when oil price is low, you know, that has a that has a deflationary effect and other things. So I I guess my point is is could housing and oil what's happening there. Could that offset any inflationary impact of of what the administration's doing? So I don't know, you know, maybe we don't have rising inflation, maybe we don't have falling inflation, but we just kind of hang out here because they're counterbalancing each other. >> Yeah. Well, I mean, that would obviously be the hope. I guess I'm um I I agree with you on the housing side. Um, and I'm a little bit less convinced on the energy side. Um, because I just think that commodity prices in general and energy in particular is going to be an area that people are going to start to get aggressive on. you know, people are going to realize, for example, AI that you and I have talked about endlessly, relying on all this energy, um, and and promising as things like Venezuela are in potential end for this Russia Ukraine situation. And who knows what happens in Iran, that could be another very positive development. um that first off in Venezuela, you know, it's going to be years if not a decade before any of that oil actually can be it's also a different kind of oil from what I understand. It involves a lot of heavy refining, >> right? But but we like that oil because our refineries can deal with it, but it's something that's going to take years from when >> Exactly. It's not like we just flip a switch and all of a sudden oil is flowing from Venezuela. So, um that would be nice, but that doesn't seem to be the case. So, um I guess my what I kind of go back and forth on is we've got these cyclical forces and secular forces. And the cyclical forces you just outlined very well um that you know could cause these prices to go lower. But there's the secular demand for resources that is strong and intensifying because of the actions of the administration. I feel like, you know, there's this cold war for resources and the curtain has been lifted. You know, we now see that we're in a cold war for resources. The US has been asleep. So has the western world basically while China has been waging this cold war for over a decade. They started their belt in the road initiative in 2013. And they've been securing resources all over the globe, including in our backyard that the administration has now woken up to and is taking steps to kind of counteract. Um but that just intensifies this demand to secure those resources. Um so I don't necessarily see the case for substantially lower prices there. Now, yes, I mean there will be cyclical es and flows, but secularly, I think commodities are going to be bid and as we saw this morning with the PPI, those are still feeding through. They they're still the thing that's pushing prices higher like in the PPI services wasn't the the the surprise higher. It was the commodity side. And I expect that that's going to continue. And then the question is is the deflation disinflation in the services sector and things like you know rental uh you know homeowners equivalent rent or whatever sufficient to offset that from the standpoint of the headline numbers but also you know does it is it sufficient to produce a sense of improved affordability among those low-end consumers and you know the jury you had on it now and we'll see how the year progresses. stresses. Um, but I agree with you just broadly that the outlook for growth is better than it was last year. Um, but that the idea that we can have stronger growth with a disinflationary backdrop at a time when we're running monetary and fiscal policy hot is one that I just, you know, maybe it'll happen, but it just intuitively is hard for me to to square. And the only way I could square it is if you have disinflation or deflation in asset prices that causes that kind of knock-on effect in the economy. What what'll be interesting is um my opinion doesn't have to be yours, but I think the thing that's going to make the biggest impact in in folks's decision when they pull the voting labor um or I guess modern day when you press the voting button um is going to be their confidence about their job or their ability to get another job. >> And you know, as you and I have been talking about forever, Steph, you know, the job market has been weaker than reported. Um I mean it's hanging in there and again that I think the unemployment rate just went down in the last uh last jobs report we just got. Um but companies aren't hiring. >> Yeah. >> Right. And so and the quits r's really low which is a sign that the employee employee is scared. Right. Um now you know Trump just did a a address last night from a factory floor you know up in Detroit. um you know if if we can get enough of these jobs you know data center jobs more manufacturing coming back stuff like that whereas even if someone's not feeling better yet but they're not feeling worse but they just feel more confident that you know what I my buddies are getting jobs if I if I if I threw my hat in the ring I could probably get a new one that'll probably make a big difference the question is is can we get to that point in the economy if we have a big correction in the stock market where companies are all of a sudden, you know, being forced to make tough decisions. So, I don't know. I mean, to the the title of this live stream here, I think it's going to be a wild ride this year. I think it's just going to be a year of of massive crossurrens. >> I totally agree. And that's the thing, like volatility is very cheap right now. So, I mean, that seems like the obvious conclusion is to just get long volatility because it's it's going to be choppy and I mean, we've seen that so far in the first couple weeks of the year. Um and again, you know, we're really kind of just sitting here watching this policy scattershot um coming uh with all new ideas every minute for ways to shore up this affordability uh argument. So I think the point is like nothing is off the table when it comes to policy right now. Um, and what I >> maybe everybody gets their own five acres in Greenland. >> Who it could be? Oh my god. Um, but you know what I wonder is if we get to a point where and you started to see it after this credit card cap announcement on Friday, you know, coming on Monday and the market immediately is like, whoa, you know, we don't like this. Um, if there's a point where Trump having been so tied to the market, you know, he constantly points to the stock market as a reflection of his success. um if there's a point at which he is chasened by a decline in the markets to kind of back away from certain policies or whether he actually says I'm going to sacrifice that top end of the K so that I can bring that affordability home >> it down here here's a question leans more Trump than not Right. Le leads leads more Trump than say >> the bottom of the K. >> No, I'm going to say the top of the K. >> Oh, okay. >> Right. You're asset owners, right? You love you you you love things that that have assets go up first first term under Trump so far. You've gotten a great ride in your assets. Your taxes, you know, the tax cuts were made permanent, right? If you own a company, deregulation's helping you out, right? So the question is is um you know the Democrats and look neither of us are political analysts so folks take this with a massive boulder of salt but like let's say Trump says to them all right you know what it's main street's term and I'm I'm helping mainstream out this year right and and the market's correct are you really going to switch and jump from Republican to Democrat um are you really going to think that progressive policies are going to be more favorable to you as an asset owner and a business owner? I don't know. I think he might just he might be making that bet which is like where you gonna go, >> right? Yeah, it could be. Although, you know, I wonder how much when you look at these people who are protesting against him, they seem like Well, I I really shouldn't even say what they do, but I mean, these are people who probably aren't on welfare, you know? These are these seem like pe you know, women who went to Welssley, basically. I'm going to just Although although they're not on welfare, but a lot of them are older and so they you know they're social security dependent, right? I mean they're they're they're progovernment and look, I'm painting with a massive brush here, folks, so apologize for the >> the stereotypes and whatnot, but but they may be on a form of government support. >> Yeah. Yeah, definitely older. So that >> I guess if they went to Welssley, you know, they're probably doing okay, but yeah. >> Yeah. I I don't know. I mean, I don't want to underestimate the willingness of the voting public to vote for things that are not ultimately in their best interest. And I say that as a former New Yorker who just watched the city vote for a socialist. Yeah. >> So, and that is the financial capital of the world. So, >> the irony there is unbelievable, >> right? the first American city to to go socialist, New York would have been at the bottom of my list of predictions. Yeah. >> Yeah. So, I'm I'm loathed to underestimate the stupidity of the average. >> Well, let me let me ask you this. This is kind of really the question I meant to ask is um I have felt going into this year the default is that the administration's going to lose Congress. You probably lose the House, might keep the Senate, right? But it's it's it's the odds aren't good. They're just not good historically. >> Right. Right. and you know the bottom half 80% plus on the bottom half of the K not feeling very happy. So I guess my question to you is is given this kind of aggressive tornado of let's do whatever it takes, do you think uh that is improving the odds? I mean, could do you think that the administration could actually hold on to the House given all this or is this likely to your point, you know, maybe to backfire on them because it's going to create unintended consequences like more inflation or other things? >> I obviously worry about the unintended consequences, but I think in terms of messaging, it's clear that, you know, they are now messaging, the Republicans are messaging and the administration is messaging on this affordability issue. So, at least they're in the game, which they weren't last year. So, >> right, which I think we've talked about this. I think it was a huge messaging mistake. You know, that that's all I would have talked about in 2025. >> Yes. Yeah. I wouldn't have let you know uh Biden's obviously this all unfolded under Biden's term and now, you know, a lot of people from his former administration are kind of pushing this argument about for affordability being a problem. And the irony appears to be lost on pretty much everybody, but except maybe you and I. I don't know. But um anyway, no I >> like their short memories. Yeah, >> to the extent they're in the game. Yes, it definitely improves the possibility. Um but I definitely worry about the unintended consequences of some of the policies. But you know, they're out there messaging it and we'll see. Um, I wish I had, you know, more brilliant insights on on, you know, the prospects, but I just I do really worry about um the the increase in volatility around these policies that are clearly going to run the economy hot between now and October and how the markets might react to that. Um, and we have to bear in mind that, you know, we aren't just talking about a stock market sitting at record highs and, you know, junk spreads that are tighter than ever. We're talking about financial markets that are levered like never before. So, it only takes one little toe stub by some errant, you know, uh, creditor somewhere um, to set the whole thing off. Um, and that that worries me. And then that brings me to sort of an esoteric far-flung topic and that is Japan. Um, you know, we've been talking about Japan and how their rates are backing up and they're now at the highest levels in decades. Yeah. Um, and so the the Bank of Japan is now, you know, they've been spent since 1990 trying to defeat deflation. And now they're trying to cool runaway what they conceive as unaway runaway. God, I can't even speak today. Runaway uh inflation and they're raising rates to do so. Um, and the irony is that they're raising rates. Um, but the currency is getting weaker and weaker and weaker. And because Japan is hugely reliant on imports, it's fanning inflation. So the weaker the currency gets, the worse the inflation gets, the more they have to raise rates. And yet the raising rates isn't bolstering the currency. So where I'm going with this is that we had that shot across the bow with the yen carry trade when they first started to raise rates to fight inflation. And we I think you and I talked about this. We're like this could be a major problem because we're going to unwind this massive yen carriage trade and nothing ever happened. And I think the reason why nothing ever happened is that the currency offset the interest rate increase. You know, the yen got so weak that you still were borrowing basically free because you were borrowing in a currency that just kept going lower and lower and lower. So you're paying some nominal interest rate. It's better than you're paying a little more than zero, but it's being offset by the currency. The risk now is that the yen is right back to the high the weakest level it was when they last intervened in July of 2024. So we can get a currency, you know, if the Bank of Japan says, you know, these rate hikes aren't working, the Ministry of Finance might come in and start aggressively intervening in the currency markets. And that could, you know, still rock the boat on that carry trade. But there's another side effect of that, and that is that in order to intervene to support the yen, they have to sell dollars. And what's the easiest way to sell dollars is to liquidate treasury holdings. >> Treasuries. Yeah. >> So, it's just more argument for pressure on the high end the long curve. >> Yeah. All right. Um, wild wild ride. Looks like it's gonna be a wild ride. So, um, just two things to let folks know about, and this dubtales into my next question for you, Steph. Um, one is, um, we haven't really talked about it much, um, but, um, you know, what what unfolds in Iran could have a really big impact on the world economy. I think just the world in general. Um, you know, personally, I've been pretty vocal in just my support for the popular uprising that's going on there. Uh, who knows how that's going to unfold, but I'm certainly wishing the Iranian people well and getting the freedom that they want. Um, so two things on that. One, a lot of dust in the air about Iran. Um, both in terms of just what what's unfolding in real time there. Uh, a question a lot of people have is, "Hey, wait a minute. Is the US going to get mired in a war with Iran?" Um, so folks, uh, you've seen in past in the past I've done some interviews with some of the geostrategic analysts at RAIN, which is one of the top um, geo strategy firms out there. Um, I just did a few recently on um what was going on with Venezuela. Before that, I'd done some with an analyst, Ryan Bowl, around what was happening between Israel and Iran when they were uh when they were fighting with each other. I've got Ryan coming back on tomorrow for a live stream to to just answer any and all questions that you, the viewing audience, has about what's going on in Iran. So, keep your eyes peeled. That'll be at 11 a.m. Eastern tomorrow, Thursday. Um, and of course, you know, what happens in Iran could impact the oil markets. Uh, I talked earlier about some other things that could impact the oil markets, but like you, Stephanie, we've even talked about this, I think, in several of your recent appearances. I think both you and I were getting, you know, kind of interested in the energy space. Um it had been depressed for so long >> that some pretty good values were there certainly just on yield alone but you know we were kind of looking out and saying look the world you know still runs on oil and this is a boom bust industry and at some point the pendulum will swing back to boom and maybe this is a good time to start getting in and I'd made it public that I had started getting into this uh this space um since I have which has been what past month or two space has actually done pretty well and it actually reacted pretty well to the Venezuelan news, which a lot of people thought, oh, they're going to get cratered because coming on the market. No, not true. At least not yet. Um, and folks, I know there's been a ton of interest in learning more about this space. Um, I am in talks with Rick Rule to come on and do a deep dive on just oil and gas. I literally was just emailing with him on this yesterday again. Um, I'm gonna try to get that booked as soon as Rich's Rick's schedule allows. Hopefully, it's going to happen in the next two or three weeks, but just know that that's coming. But Steph, you know, I joked who three, four months ago that, you know, I've got my silver laser eyes on right now in my ex-profile. And I'm going to take full credit that that's what got that's what's gotten sober. >> I put them on at 35 when it had that breakthrough. You know, I've kept them on since. Um, but I've joked increasingly joked about, you know, well, when I retire the silver laser eyes, I might put oil eyes on there, right? Um I I'm still trying to think through that, but um because there are some developments here that are making me try to think through the second and third derivative effects on on the oil price. But let me just ask the question to you. Um let's say the time comes when you think gold and silver have have completed the majority of their run. They think you think they're going to do at least in this cycle. Sounds like maybe you're not going to sell your physical ounces per se, but let's say you're mining stocks. If you feel like, okay, those things have had their run. >> Yep. >> You thinking of transitioning those proceeds into oil? >> Absolutely. >> Oil and gas. >> Energy. Yeah. The whole energy the entire >> complex. >> Energy complex. I think >> um and the young brand thing is I mean obviously I'm I'm not a geopolitical strategist or anything like that, but I I think that has the potential to be the most important development on the global stage as relates to what the administration is doing because if that actually if they overthrow the government and we see regime change in Iran then you have basically cut out from Russia and ch this axis the China Russia Iran um and Venezuela to some extent you know you've already got Venezuela if you take Iran out >> you really isolated China and Russia and they're kind of on an island unto themselves, >> right? Maybe with North Korea, but you know, that's a small player, >> right? Um but I I think that that could have massive consequences like positive consequences for the globe and um for the US over the long term. Um but as relates to energy, I mean again I think that uh it's all upside. Uh even if you overthrow the government there, um you know, the oil that's there is the oil that's there. It's just where is it going to end up going? You know, right now it's going to China. Um so now it'll flow elsewhere. But >> you know, I I guess ultimately that doesn't make me bearish on oil is what I'm saying. I mean, I think it's it's more of a positive um in terms of the long-term setup for the US um and probably would give the dollar a bid, but ultimately um you know, I I don't know that it materially changes this demand for resources that we're talking about. Um, and you know, there's just a finite, this is the beauty about hard assets is there's a finite amount of them. And we've spent the last several decades basically manufacturing paper. And now we're discovering that there's a massive imbalance uh between the amount of paper claims we've uh printed versus the hard assets upon which the delivery of all of that good stuff depends. Ultimately, >> the difference between bits and atoms, right? You can create as many bits as you want, but there's a finite number of atoms in the world. >> Oh, I thought you were talking about atoms like >> Yeah, I know. That's why I had to clarify. >> Um, okay. So, you know, we'll we'll continue on this theme of energy in your future appearances, uh, Stephanie, and I'll and I'll hopefully have something more intelligent to say about it, um, once I've learned from him. you have a lot more intelligent to say about it than I do. I mean, it's it's hard because there's so many crossurrens and things are are moving a lot and there's a lot up in the air geopolitically and economically as we turn the page here to 2026, but it's going to be an interesting year for sure. >> All right. So on on that um you know your if I'm remembering correctly your portfolio which you've been kindly transparent about >> has been largely made up of of precious metals plays and tea bills um and I think maybe you were starting to nibble on energy. >> Yep. >> Okay. Has any of that changed or you is that still your your current position given the world as it is right now? No, I mean I just have less cash and and more energy exposure than I had before because that's how I deployed some of the cash, you know, as the Fed started cutting rates. Um, so >> are you dollar cost averaging that or has it just been in discreet chunks? >> I mean, it's just whenever I'm like, "Oh, you know what? Now's a great time to start putting a little more money to work there." Um, so, you know, I I'm like the typical person. I guess I'd like to think it's fairly typical in this business who spend so much time talking to other people about the markets that I don't really focus on my own portfolio very much. I I sign sort of set it and forget it. And I've also had a very long-term view. So it's not like I've been positioning gold as a three month or six month trade. I've had that position on for a long time. So I don't you know do a lot of trading in my account and it it comes in lumps. Let's put it that way. >> Well, Stephanie, let me let me just share with you that, you know, I mentioned I I put out ad on X that you were going to be on today. Um there's there was a a fair amount of of post there just saying, you know what, I I got into precious metals 12 months ago because of, you know, what you and Stephanie were saying. And you know, I just basically a lot of goodwill coming to you. Um now, you know, and I think you deserve 100% of that. Um I I I feel a little bit like, you know, maybe that person started watching 12 months ago, so if they had been watching five years ago, they might have felt a little bit like, well, I had to wait a lot for this, right? But but no, but you you you have helped a lot of people in in the near term um who have been convinced by, you know, your your strong championing of of the precious metals. Um a couple other questions uh that that have users asked and then we'll start wrapping up. Um, one is they just wanted to get your general outlook for the housing market for 2026. >> Yeah. >> Um, I know you're not a housing analyst, but you think a lot about it. So, where do you think it's likely to go? >> Well, to the extent that I am highly skeptical about the um likely hood that these efforts to lower mortgage rates are actually going to succeed, don't really see much relief on the mortgage rate side. And that does leave me concerned about prices doing the heavy lifting. um which you know you know create tremendous opportunities for people like myself who sold and I'm sitting here renting waiting for prices to come down so I can get a a better entry point. Um but it will come at the expense again of those people who are sitting on equity. And it's important to point out too that over the last year we've seen a huge increase in cash out refi. So, a lot of people, you know, who were turned off by the pro the prospect of borrowing at 28% rates on their credit cards have been extracting equity from their homes to generate cash. Um, and so that leaves them more vulnerable to any kind of decline in price. Um, now I'm not predicting, you know, a 200 five six, you know, type of bursting of a housing bubble situation, but I do think um that prices are more likely to go down than up. And one thing that I another myth I'd like to dispel is this myth that there is a shortage of housing supply. There's no shortage of housing supply. there is a shortage of housing supply at the price that people are willing to list it for right now. So you you see this really clearly in the bifurcation between new and existing homes where new home sales if you think about a builder developing a whole project. he's going to be much more flexible in terms of prices that he's going to offer or rates >> um than someone who's sitting in a home who has a three and a half% or 4% mortgage who's reluctant to sell and then have to turn around and and buy a home at six or six and a half. >> So you see the new home prices >> have come down and are now for the first time I think in history >> lower than existing home prices. So, it tells you a lot about the dynamics >> and and that's I think that lower price um I I I think that's still sticker, right? In other words, like when you factor in all the the mortgage buy downs and the the benefits that they throw in on top of that, >> you know, the to your point, the new home market is showing us where it all needs to go, which is the price just needs to be lower. Right. >> Exactly. And what you also have in the background is this massive inventory that's about to come on the market of homes that are in some stage of construction. And I'm sitting here talking to you looking out at a massive building that's going up here in West Palm Beach right next to a one that was just completed between another one that was just completed. >> But you live you live in a you live in a strange place, right? be because I mean you you live in one of the few places that's still redot and that's because everybody who's leaving the New Yorks and Chicago and Californiaiforns of the world are moving to your town. >> Um so yes um but but but that's true there there still is in a bunch of other I mean what's interesting about where you live in Florida is it is totally a tale of of of two worlds, right? You've got some places like where you live that are still doing great, but you got a lot of places in your state that have had a 2008 style correction. >> Yep. Well, and then you have these older buildings. And it's interesting. This is a really interesting uh strip that I'm looking at out the window here. It's there's an older building um where everyone's probably in their 70s and has owned their units forever and they're facing assessments to upgrade the building and a lot of people can't afford to pay those assessments. So, that's a real problem. And it's wedged between two buildings where, you know, the starting uh condo is five, six million on the ground floor and the penthouse is 40 million. You know, it's insane. So, but it is a tale of of two worlds there. Um, but ultimately I I think that there's a huge amount of supply. If you look at um the housing that's under construction or completed and you add in an you know starts um it's as high as it was during the housing bubble. That's the only time it's ever been this high. A huge shadow inventory that when it's as it starts to hit the market is going to depress prices. So I just want to eradicate the myth that there's a shortage of supply. There's no shortage of housing supply at all. Um, and I think we're going to find that out uh soon. >> So, I've ranted about this as well, Steph. I agree with everything you've said. The other thing I would add to it is, you know, what I often say is I don't think we have a shortage of of housing units in this country. We have a a very stark imbalance of who owns them. >> You know, a lot of them are investorowned. Um and uh you know the investors had had a great time um for a long time especially during COVID right but now we're at a point where a lot of those guys are you know they're now those properties are cash flowing negative um and presumably uh the longer that lasts that inventory is going to keep coming onto the market as well. So I look I I I'm sensitive and I agree that look in some areas, yeah, we do need to build more. We need to, you know, >> Right. Right. >> try to get rid of some of the red tape and but but but I think if we just said, hey, look, do we really want to have I think it's something like a third of single family homes are owned by an investor, whether it's a mom and pop, and it's mostly mom and pops, but increasingly over the recent years, it's been Airbnbers and and institutional uh institutions as well. I I I do think and I always get in trouble for this, but I do think we should have a national conversation to say, does it serve us to have an investor have investors owning that much of the single family home fleet? You know, homes that are really supposed to be shelter for families. >> Right. >> Right. And uh and I and and I you know, we just saw Trump, you know, put out the trial balloon of, hey, I'm I'm I'm now declaring that institutions can't buy anymore. Um it wouldn't surprise me over time if we started to see more and more restrictions on what investors could do there and that would free up a lot of inventory. Right. So anyways, >> but but at a price because you know if these guys have to liquidate those portfolios at distressed values or whatever then there are financial consequences to that too. >> Sure. Um, and also, you know, we we also have to back look back to when they started buying and they created a market that, you know, they stepped up into a vacuum. Uh, so we we loved them when they came in and started buying up properties, but now, you know, now they own too many. So, it's, you know, it's it's very hard to have both sides of the argument. And I get it. you know, I I don't love the idea that they own a third basically of single family homes. I think that's, you know, creates obviously a problem. Um, but we're in this, you know, we should have anticipated what the implications would be before they came in. >> Absolutely. That's the problem with letting the camel into the tent, right? Yeah. It seems great at the start and then you have and now it's like, well, you know, we're going to crater the market every day. It's Yeah, we never should have let you in, right? >> Exactly. Exactly. Uh, again, different different rant for a different day. All right. Um, okay. We're gonna we're gonna end on probably something even a little darker and I apologize for that. Um, so this is the tweet literally starts with, "This is dark, but >> does Stephanie envision social instability arriving in our country and what could be the catalyst? Does she prep for any type of social instability or forth turning type of crescendo?" Yeah, it's a dark question for such a pretty person, but just wondering. Oh >> yeah. >> I mean it's it's scary because I was actually thinking this thought yesterday as I watched the news reports of you know what's going on in Minneapolis oral over Minnesota. Um and it does seem like oh gosh Steph you froze up right when you got to the super interesting part there. Um all right folks hopefully she's going to rejoin. >> Am I back? >> Are you back? Okay, sorry. Um, you you froze right at the start of your answer there. >> Okay. Yeah. Did I get to the part of watching the uh news stories out of Minnesota and how you know these >> That's right where we lost you. >> Okay. >> Minnesota. It's hard not to feel watching that like there's an effort being made by some groups to fment instability and that you know there really it just feels like there's there is an effort I I mean I hate to be dark like that um to try to create some social unrest there and blow this into a bigger you know it already has uh reminiscences of George Floyd um and if it became a larger nationwide situation, you know, these things can devolve pretty quickly. Um, so I do it's not it's not a question that I haven't contemplated and I don't worry about. Um, I don't really know how to prepare other than what I have, which is a Glock and my gold and my bulldog. So frankly um >> so so golden lead basically is what >> but you know I actually heard someone on on some news story today talking about how they felt I think it was they were um replaying a comment by one of the um uh what do they call the uh AOC and her gaggle of women. What are they >> the squad? Thank you. God I literally am out of it today. So they quoted one of them saying uh that essentially um oh my god I now I'm totally losing this comment but uh yeah I'm sorry Adam I don't I'm now I'm so down to >> to the spirit of the question I mean do you how much of your mind share if any is spent thinking that like okay this could go just beyond my concerns about the economy or the financial markets into real social instability that you know I I Stephanie might need to worry about stepping you know out of my house into the street one day. >> Yeah. Well, I guess that's why I moved to Florida from Manhattan so I wouldn't have to worry about that as much because it really I mean even during COVID that was a consideration. Um and now I'd be very uncomfortable being around there. Um, but I I feel like, you know, I'm not someone who necessarily lives my life looking over my shoulder, you know. Um, and maybe that's not a good thing, but um, I try not to expend a lot of mental energy worrying about things that I can't do anything about. Um, but you know, I don't want to be cavalier about it because it's it's a risk and it it is a function in large part of how long and how persistent this bifurcation between the high end and the low end has been allowed to continue. And um, you know, it would be great if we could rectify that problem without having to have any kind of social consequences and have the consequences be purely economic and financial. But I think that's a little bit of a pipe dream. Um because you know it could involve pain that ultimately manifests in some social unrest. So it's I guess this is kind of a long-winded way of saying I don't rule the risk out. I try not to really expend a lot of time and energy contemplating it, but I'm definitely mindful that it could happen. And as I watch what's happening in Minnesota, I I definitely am keeping an eye on any potential echoes elsewhere in the country. I'd be interested in what you say to that question, Adam, because you've been on this topic for a long time. >> Well, for I mean, yeah, for folks that know, you know, what I the previous companies that I was involved with, um, you know, I spent the better part of a decade kind of focusing on this type of stuff. Um, I mean the short answer for me it's it's all about resilience and um just not to make this a super long answer um if folks are familiar with the book that I co-authored called Prosper. Uh it goes into kind of how to build resilience in your life. And the the short hand of that is is these are steps that you can take in your life across all facets of your life that um if we go full forth turning and there's lord of the flies out there in the world and supply chains break down all that stuff uh you will be less vulnerable to those forces. Um but if the world just keeps chugging along these are things that are still additive to your quality of life, right? you're you're you're not going to look back and regret that. My goodness, why did I invest more in my health? Why did I learn more skills that are practical? Why did I build community and have tighter social bonds? Right? These are things that are just good no matter what type of times you live in. So, from my perspective, it's just uh I mean, I I live my life according to that framework. Um so, yeah, short answer is is cultivate resilience. It only has good uh good benefits for you. Um all right. Well, look, in wrapping up, um, Stephanie, a thank you again. These are wonderful, and it's so great to see you. Um, oh, you know, I will say though, real quick on the resilience side of things, one of the things that you are doing well, Stephanie, by helping so many people is you're building your own form of social capital. Um, where there are a bunch of people who are deservedly fans of yours because you've legitimately helped them out. And so, you know, if you were ever to fall in tough times and need to get out of your your place there in Florida, I'm sure there's a lot of safe plans places for you to land. Uh, and of course, my house in Reno is one of them. And come come hang out with Ashley in the the the great free state of Nevada if you ever need to. Um, but, uh, but that is one important investment that you're making with your time here, whether you were aware of it or not. All right. In wrapping up, Steph, just again give a folks a quick reminder of where they can go learn more about your upcoming conference on February 17th and 19th. Absolutely. I'll pin it on my Twitter feed, but S Pomboy on Twitter um and you can register. I'll put the link there to register. It's only a month away, so we're, you know, we're only have a few tickets left and but there are options to do a VIP uh extended VIP thing. The conference is on the 17th. We have a VIP day on the 18th which will include some real quality facetime with the likes of the two of us and a bunch of other interesting people and a boat excursion. And it it's going to be great. So I'll post that on my Twitter and then for people who want to learn about macro mavens, they can go to my website macromavens.com and learn how to subscribe and all that jazz. And I promise next time I'll have better internet and my brain will also be functioning so that the words that are in my brain actually come out of my mouth. >> No, I I know it's hard to to be on when you're worried about your internet connection and stuff like that. So, don't worry about it. Um, all right. And folks, yes, macromavens.com. You know, if you want to follow Stephanie in between her monthly appearances here, well, then just go and subscribe to her work there at at macromavens. Um, all right. Well, in wrapping up real quick here, folks, um if you want to get some professional help from a a professional adviser who takes into account all the macro issues that Stephanie and I have talked about here, uh in, you know, hopefully figuring out how best to navigate your financial wealth through what looks like it's going to be a pretty wild year ahead. Um obviously, you can go fill out the short form at thoughtfulmoney.com there and talk to one of the financial adviserss that Thoughtful Money endorses. These are the firms you see with me on this channel week in and week out. Uh it only takes you a couple seconds to fill out the form there. The consultations you'll have are completely free. There's no commitments involved. It's just a service these firms offer to be as helpful to as many people as possible. Lastly, um just want to remind folks that the uh special offer that Andy Sheckchman and his team at Miles Franklin uh have uh created exclusively for the Falfa Money audience to buy junk silver uh now. I think it's at a $1.35 over spot. still one of the best deals that Andy's seen in his 30 plus year career. Uh supplies are still lasting. So, if you want to take advantage of that, go to thoughtfulmoney.com/bygold. Um and Andy and his team will be in touch with you right away after you fill out that form. Uh either to help you take advantage of the junk silver offer or just to answer any other, you know, precious metals purchasing, selling or storage questions that you may have. Um Steph, it's always so wonderful. Folks, please do me a favor. Hit the like button to show your appreciation for Stephanie. And definitely let her know in the live chat here, you're watching live or in the comment section below if you're watching the replay, how much you enjoy having her here on these monthly uh sessions with her so that hopefully she wants to keep doing this with course. >> I'll do this as long as you'll have me. >> Well, that's that's that's easy, Steph. We'll have you forever. Um all right. Well, look, um, I've got to I know you got to go and I've got to hop off to record my next interview in just a couple minutes. But Steph, uh, so great to see you. Thank you. Another great, wonderful discussion as always. Really looking forward to seeing you in a month. I hope as many of the viewers here watching who can join us choose to join us there. U, but again, just thanks for everything. >> Thank you. I guess we'll talk next just a couple days before that conference. So that'll be great. >> All right. And hopefully we can inspire any any any procrastinators to come join us. All right, Steph. Um, please give Willamina a good scratch behind your ears for me. >> And you do the same with your two B's. >> We'll do. All right. Thanks so much.