Stock Market Trap: Investor Reveals ‘Very Hot’ Q4 Trade | Jay Martin
Summary
Gold Market Insights: Jay Martin emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between investments and speculations in the gold market, advising investors to take profits and de-risk when opportunities arise.
Market Momentum: The current gold bull market is described as textbook, with capital trickling down from central banks to major producers and exploration companies, highlighting the importance of strategic profit-taking.
Economic Uncertainty: Global instability, particularly in US-China relations, is driving investors towards stable, non-correlated assets like commodities, with gold being a preferred safe haven.
Canadian Economy: The Canadian economy faces challenges due to political decisions and trade fears, impacting business confidence and investment, despite having strong resource potential.
Resource Sector Developments: The mining industry, especially in gold, is seeing responsible capital allocation and growth, with high-quality companies raising funds effectively and deploying them productively.
Equity Market Concerns: The US equity market is seen as precarious, heavily reliant on a few tech giants, with potential risks from new policies and global competition, particularly from China.
Investment Strategy: Successful investors are noted for their strategic capital allocation, balancing speculative opportunities with stable, long-term assets to weather market volatility.
Global Trade Dynamics: The emergence of BRICS and shifting global alliances are reshaping supply chains and investment landscapes, with increased state involvement in strategic sectors like commodities.
Transcript
This is the place where mines should be built. I'm not That is the place. Canada is the place where mine should be built. Last 10 years, man, I I just lost confidence in our ability to turn this country around. I mean, everything I just said, David, a country can have all the right ingredients and still make horrible political choices and squander that opportunity. What do you think has happened to Canada's economy since Trump has taken office? How have tariffs impacted the economy? Pretty broad question, but I'll let you answer however you like. based on your observation, based on the stats you've seen, based on the people you've talked to. I'm pleased to be joined by Jay Martin, president and CEO of VRIC and VR Media. Jay's unique in that he's an investor himself. He's talked to a lot of investors and professionals on his own show. Check it out on YouTube. He runs a great podcast where he's interviewed a lot of people um in the uh gold, precious metals uh and economic spaces. So, he's got his pulse on what the experts are feeling. We'll get his own opinion as well as um a synopsis of what people have been telling him on his show and ultimately what people watching this show right now should be doing with their money. Jay, welcome back to the show. Always good to see you. >> It's good to see you, David. Great to reconnect, man. >> Yeah, happy uh happy you're here and um I'm happy you invited me again to the VR, the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, one of the biggest resource conferences in the world. It's happening in January. So, I'll be there attending, filming on site, moderating some panels, and looking forward to it, man. So, thank you again for the invitation. People should check that out closer to January. Let's start with what people have been telling you about gold and silver. Is it time to take profits? No doubt you've been asking the same question. I'll ask you, what do you think? Well, let me just start by asking you what people have been telling you in regards to that question, and then I'll get your own opinion. >> Yeah, I mean, they're, you know, they're one and the same, right? As a podcast host, I tend to synthesize the variety of opinions that I hear uh and I talk to people on the show that I respect and want to learn from. And so, you know, my investment thesis generally comes through conversation and then personal diligence. Uh probably not unlike yourself. And so, you know, the way I'm reading this gold market a couple ways. Number one, I I'd say it's the most textbook gold bull market you could expect if you you know, investors are always impatient. Why isn't the, you know, the mid-tier is running or the developers running or the exploration companies running? Investors are always impatient. But if you look at the way capital has trickled down through this bull market, it's been incredibly textbook back to 2023 when central banks were buying gold at a record numbers and the physical price began to respond. Uh towards the end of 2023, 2024, the best-in-class royalty companies hit all-time highs. 2024 2025 best-in-class miners hit all-time highs. And this year, the cash has continued to trickle down to the mid-tier producers, funded and unfunded developers, and even some exploration companies. But what investors really need to keep front and center right now in this market is the difference between an investment and a speculation in the gold market. An investment is ao eagle, a numont, a wheat and precious metal that you can hold through a secular bull market because it's a cash flowing business that will ride the macro trend. but a speculation, a earlier stage exploration or early stage development play. I'm in a bunch of, you know, uh, investment clubs and groups and I'm seeing people celebrate 500% gains on some early stage company, but they're not de-risking because they're holding out for some target they've got on their mind. You can't treat speculations that way. When the market gives you a gift to derisk your position, you take it. An investment is a cash flowing business that rides the macro trend. A speculation is uh a venture that you're waiting for, a catalyst that may move the share price. Well, the catalyst is here, right? It's called market momentum and sentiment. And so, if you're sitting on 100% 200%, 300% gain, I'm not saying sell your position. But I am saying if you look at the best investors in the business who have survived good and bad markets for decades, they do one thing very very well and that's sell and derisk. They're exceptional at not losing money. If you're looking at the Rick Rules or the Jesters, the Thomas Kaplins, they're probably not much better at buying than you are. But I guarantee you for most investors, they're much better at selling and they're very quick to take profits and take a risk-free ride if they can withdraw their principle. And and that I think is the most important thing gold investors need to hear right now because the speculations are volatile. They're frothy right now. Take that win. It's a gift from the market. derisk, reinvest that capital into major gold producers. That's what I'm doing. I'm taking capital off the table in the early stage opportunities, but I'm keeping it in the gold market. I'm just parking it in the more stable bets for long term. Uh so speculations when they offer you the opportunity to derisk, take that opportunity right away. >> Would you say that gold, the bullying itself, I'm not talking about junior explorers now. I'm talking about the bullion itself having run up almost 50% year to date. Jay, is that now a speculative asset for you? >> No, it's it's not a speculative asset for me. Gold can't be a speculative asset for me because it's it's a safe haven asset. That's why I've defined it and I treat it in my portfolio. And at this point in my life, it's a buy only asset. I don't see it in bubble territory at this point. I think we'll see that in my lifetime. And then maybe for the first time in my life, gold won't be a buy only asset. Maybe it'll be a sell asset in that bubble environment. But I don't think we're there. Would I expect a correction in the gold price? I certainly wouldn't be surprised by one. I mean, you have to whenever you look at an asset like this, you got to remember there's always two factors at play. There's two buyers, right? There's the long-term investor and there's the short-term trader or speculator, right? Some people do see gold as a speculation, so they're going to treat it that way, right? are they going to try to swing trade it and sell the tops and catch the bottoms? And I don't do that. But inside a big trend, right, even if it's a secular bull market, there's all sorts of little trends occurring inside of that because of the short-term shorttime horizon traders and speculators. So, you know, gold's really hot right now. Nothing goes straight up forever and gold won't either. It will correct. Um, and you know, if there's instability everywhere right now, it doesn't matter which direction you look. If you're looking at broad equities or geopolitical relationships, trade agreements, everything is very uncertain. And so in the event of some kind of a liquidity crisis, everything gets sold, even gold, right? People flood back to the US dollar because they have to make their payment obligations. So there's a there's a handful of factors that could trigger a correction in the gold price. I wouldn't be surprised by it, but my time horizon for gold isn't two years, so I'm not worried about that. My time horizon for gold is 5 to 10 years at this point and so I'm okay with the short-term volatility if it arrives. Gold prices have continuously hit all-time highs this year in 2025. Stellar Gold in the mining industry is a name worth watching. Today's sponsor, Stellar Gold is a gold developer with two of the largest undeveloped gold projects in Canada. The Tower Gold Project in the well-known Timmans Mining Camp and the Caramac Gold Project in the Northwest Territories. They just released plans for the towers and the numbers are impressive. The project could deliver a $2.5 billion after tax net present value at spot gold price and produce 273,000 ounces annually over 19 years. 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Um and you know uh it's it's everything we're looking at right now globally is kind of through the lens of China US competitiveness and if you use that as a filter to understand most major global headlines things begin to make a lot more sense. You know, it's important when you see these major headlines, global macro, to just like go one layer deeper all the time, right? Recently, the United States has been on a roll announcing uh foreign investment in the US economy, right? It's like great PR. We've got 100 billion promised from Taiwan. We've got 350 billion promised from South Korea, 600 billion from Saudi Arabia. And all of this stuff sounds great, but the question you need to ask is how real is that money? And if you go one layer beneath the headline, like let's look at South Korea for example, a $350 billion promise to invest in the US economy is what got them out of tariffs. So that was the agreement. But now the bills do when it's time to invest the capital and they don't have it. So what are they going to do? I mean, they have three options, right? They can pull it out of their economy from somewhere in the government budget that already needs it. If they do that, the president of South Korea has already said this would trigger an economic crisis in this country on par with the 1997 Asian financial crisis. I think 2008, but in Korea, it's in a democratic country, it's completely unpalatable. They're not going to do that politically. Option two is that they borrow the money from the United States. And by the way, they've already asked, right? They've asked, could we borrow swapline 350 billion and invest it into your economy that way? So, you know, read between the lines what happens. The US prints the money, gives it to South Korea. They invested back into the US economy. It's not really foreign investment. It's just currency devaluation. And the third option is that South Korea already owns a lot of US assets because like many countries, they've been investing in the US for 30, 40 years. So they own stocks, bonds, e equities, real estate. And they could liquidate some of their US assets to the tune of $350 billion. And this is probably what they're going to do. and then invest that cash in the US economy. But like you're tracking here. Just because you pull money out and put it back in doesn't make it new money, right? It's just a game. And if you dive one layer deeper on a lot of this trade aggression, that's what you'll see. You'll see an unsustainable agreement. So a shortcut has to be taken. And when I see all of that chaos, like, you know, the spidey sense goes up a little bit. You're like, "This doesn't make sense." You know, it doesn't mean I I doesn't give me certainty on what's going to happen in the future. And when I don't have certainty, I want stable non-correlated assets with zero counterparty risk. I'm not alone. That's why the commodity sector is hot right now because people go towards hot hard assets in times of uncertainty. And you know, that's that's one microcosm, but it's everywhere in our global macro right now. >> I'm going to get to the heart of your portfolio allocation in just a minute. Towards the end of the interview, I'm also going to get uh some predictions out of Jay. I'll get your uh stock market and gold price and silver price predictions towards the end. We'll get some crystal ball reading as I like to call it. Uh so stay tuned till the end and don't forget to subscribe to this channel to get daily updates. And don't forget to subscribe to Jay's channel. He's done some wonderful work. Link down below to see Jay's channel. Now I want to talk about Canada first. You and I are both Canadian. uh although currently you're presently not in Canada but uh we're both Canadian and people have asked me what have your experts told you on your show in regards to the Canadian economy and the truth is I haven't covered the Canadian economy much so I'm going to start doing more of that what do you think has happened to Canada's economy since Trump has taken office have tariffs impacted the economy pretty broad question but I'll let you answer however you like based on your observation based on the stats you've seen based on the people you've talked to >> yeah the the number one impact on the Canadian economy from the trade aggression and and tariff talk has just been fear in the mindset of Canadian business owners. So nothing super real has materialized. There has been some direct uh impacts. Good friend of mine for example um is in the martial arts equipment sector. He manufactures in China, sells to America. Full stop on his business for the time being. That's that's very damaging. But generally speaking, it's more of a fear-based impact in the Canadian economy right now, which is very real. That leads to companies investing less, buying less, spending less, just battening the hatches and waiting until they have some kind of certainty on the future. Now, I am seeing that fear of bait a little bit and the economy is getting back to business as usual to a degree, but that David has been the number one impact. It's all the entrepreneurs I talked to and and uh it's that it's just we don't know what's going to happen. and we don't know what's around the corner. And so right now, it's time to move slowly and carefully. And Canada can't really withstand that for very long because our economy is not in a good place, right? Um, keep in mind like it wasn't that long ago, 2008, Canada came through the GFC with a healthier balance sheet than any other G7 nation. When this country is managed properly, it does extraordinarily well because it's colossal. It's the second largest country in the world with a very small population and it's very resourceri. So wealth per capita has the potential to be very high. But today GDP per capita is like on par with Alabama. Like if all the chat about the 51st state back a few months ago was hilarious. If Canada was actually to become the 51st state, I believe on a GDP per capita basis it would be the third poorest state in America. And that's just poor management, right? The ingredients are here, right? And we've proven this in the past that when Canada is a simple country, right? We do resource extraction and export extraordinarily well. And when that's functioning well, all the incillary industries catch some cash flow trickle from our pillar industry. But if you vilify the pillar industry, which is what's been done for the last 10 years, everything else suffers. >> Well, let's talk about the resource section. Sorry, please go ahead. Sorry. >> Yeah. No, just Canada is a country where you should be building mines in your backyard because we have some of the highest environmental standards, social standards, compliance, and reporting. This is the place where mines should be built. I'm not that is the place. Canada is the place where mine should be built. Uh and uh it's something the country knows how to do uh from an engineering and mechanics standpoint, but it's been vilified for 10 years. We're getting out of that, right? The new prime minister has surprised me and been incredibly favorable to the resource industry. So, I'm uh I'm not in Canada. I'm divesting from Canada. I'm currently in Indonesia. My kids go to school here, but I haven't given up on Canada. It's still home. >> Why Why are you divesting from Canada? >> Last last 10 years, man, I I just lost confidence in our ability to turn this country around. I mean, everything I just said, David, a country can have all the right ingredients and still make horrible political choices and squander that opportunity. That's what happened to Argentina, right? Argentina at the beginning of the 20th century was one of the wealthiest countries in the world. They had a very healthy commodity industry, massive coastline, export industry. It was like rocking and everyone around the world knew the term the wealthy Argentinian. But you and I would never think about Argent Argentina that way. They got crushed in the Great Depression like every other country. But instead of recovering, they voted voted in a socialist government that promised to intervene and fix everything. and it costs them 80 years of productivity. And so you can have the right ingredients, but if it's managed improperly, it doesn't matter. And Canada to me four years ago looked to be on that tipping point. Two years ago looked to be on that tipping point. Now I think we're getting over it and trending back the right direction. But as a just in case, we've been spending a lot more time in Asia for the last 3 years. As mentioned, my kids are in school here now. We just want optionality. And so that's that's all we're looking for right now is optionality just in case plans. >> So let's talk about the resource sector. Last I checked, uh the GDX is up 90% year to date. Now obviously not all the companies within the GDX index, the uh VNC gold miners index are located in Canada, although a big chunk are headquartered in Vancouver. So I'm wondering how the resource sector is responding to the unprecedented gold price, the rise in share price, um soaring valuations of their companies. Are they actually getting more capital from investors? Are they actually deploying the capital to more drilling and exploration? What have you noticed? You talked to a lot of mining companies. You worked with a lot of mining companies and you host hundreds of them on your own on your own um conference. So, what do you think? What's going on? Yeah, right now I'm really impressed with the stewardship in the mining sector, specifically the gold, the precious metal sector because uh very high quality companies with worldclass management or companies that appear to be on the cusp of a world-class asset discovery are able to raise capital um on their terms, which is, you know, good for the sector if that capital is put to productive use. And the mining industry has been punished for long enough that a lot of the bad behavior from the previous bull market in 2009, 10 and 11 uh you know the previous highs in this industry that was so long ago and the industry has been so challenging since then that most of the bad actors have been squeezed out because there's been no easy money to be made. Now, right now, the industry is therefore in this sweet spot where most people who are running companies in the sector, they survived the last 10-year bare market and now they're being rewarded for it. They're raising capital, but they're very conscious that shareholder expectations are incredibly high and they need to deliver on that, right? And so, I'm seeing great use of capital and I think this is good news. Uh, call them the the penny dreadfuls or the super early stage expiration companies. they're not having an easy time accessing capital. And quite frankly, they shouldn't, right? It shouldn't be easy to raise money for a very uncertain bet. When that starts happening, that's when the market begins to get a little bit more frothy than I'm comfortable with. As I mentioned at the front end of this interview, I see this bull market as is very like systematic and logical, and that's good news. It's been slow and patient. It's been about 3 years of capital trickling down from the physical gold to the major best-in-class equities and now to the mid-tier producers and funded developers, etc. If you remember the gold market in 2020, it was like 6 months and everything from precious from from physical gold to explorers suddenly popped and it ended just as fast as it began. That's not a healthy market. What we're seeing today is a very healthy market. So, you know, best-in-class entrepreneurs are raising cash. They're raising a lot of it, and they're putting that capital to work. Um, I expect October, November to be very hot months in the gold market. Um, and I I I pray that it continues to uh develop with methodical patience and and uh logic. And let's hope that's the case. >> Jay, what have people been telling you about the stock market, the direction of the stock market into 2026 and 2020 and beyond perhaps? But let's just stick with 2026, the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. What have people told you in regards to valuations uh and where they see the direction headed? >> Yeah. Sentiment right now, broad equities, for most of the broad equity investors that I talked to, they land in one of two camps. Either they're blindly bullish and they can't see anything that would shake this sentiment or they're incredibly conservative, de-risking, and see the market right now as a house of cards. I tend to see it as a house of cards strictly just because of the consolidation of capital. on so few names. The market is held up by four or five companies right now. And with the US administration's announcement this week of the $100,000 fee for H1B H-1B visa workers, uh I'm interested to see next week how the market responds to that because for country companies like Amazon, you know, they have over 10,000 workers that are now um hit by this $100,000 tax. That's a per worker fee. That's a billion dollar tax on Amazon. And you know, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, uh they all have about 5,000 of these workers. That's a half a billion dollar tax on each of them. Now, I'm not taking this announcement at face value. I think the administration has a pattern of making very sensational headlines and then, you know, rolling out a more pragmatic strategy a couple weeks later. put on its face. This looks pretty devastating to big tech and big tech is what's carried the equity market. So if that stumbles, uh, it's a problem. Um, you know, and in addition, David, like I, you know, I don't know if you're you're chatting about this, but you know, it's it's big tech that's been carrying the equity market. Now, a couple months ago, there was about 20 VCs that went on a tour of China's high-tech industry, specifically clean tech and battery technology. They came from the United States and they came from Europe. And the Wall Street Journal reported when they got back on their analysis. And what they determined was that there's about five or six tech industries in the United States, including battery manufacturing, electric vehicles, solar generation, that they now deem uninvestable in the United States economy because of how much further ahead their Chinese competitors are. Now, just from a capital allocator standpoint, these VCs have said, "It's not productive to us to invest in these American tech industries because there's already Chinese competitors that are way too far ahead. We're not going to catch them." And so, they're looking at other directions to invest this capital back home. And if that's the case today, and China already employs more robot workers than the rest of the world combined. There's like 2 million robots in the labor force. And last year they added 300,000 more automatic robots into the labor force. The United States by contrast added 34,000. So 10% right. So if the gap is already so wide that VCs are coming home and saying we can't invest in battery manufacturing in the US anymore. In addition, China is automating their tech sector at a speed of 10x via robotic automation. Like what's going to happen to that gap? What's going to happen to the equity market that's held up by those companies? It's like I'm I'd be very cautious. I don't have any money in the broad equity market. I'm very barbelled in my portfolio. I'm I'm aggressive in the speculative industries that I know well and then I park cash in safe haven assets for the long term. But if I don't have a competitive advantage, I don't put cash there. And now look at the broad equity market. I don't have a competitive advantage there. That's just that's just the pool of money that gets, you know, flooded in by people with a good idea or the saw headline. And so I don't I don't play in that arena. What do you do about that concentration risk? You're right. And that's a theme that's been discussed on my show as well, the fact that the S&P is now 44% or 45% tech uh the big tech companies. And I was just reading a report by the WF, the World Economic Forum, that uh the tech companies have spent more capex than the average S&P 500 company in the last four quarters. And so they're carrying not just the entire market cap, but also spending as well. What do you do in that kind of environment, in that kind of investing environment? I straight up I don't participate and I encourage investors to think very critically about why they're investing in this market. Is it because they just think the QQQ always goes up? Like if that's your thesis, just maybe look at a history just for, you know, a minute, right? And and think you should be able to identify why you're buying a a position in a company like that. That is just like table stakes. If you're an investor, what's your diligence process? You know, when I buy a position in the company, David, I have a one-page worksheet that I fill out. And at the top of it is the three to five reasons that I bought a position in this company. And then there's the three to five reasons that I believe the share price might be impacted and what might do that. And then there's the three to five reasons that I might be wrong and might want to sell that position. And the I didn't make this up. This is through uh osmosis with the best investors that I get to stay in touch with. And you know, in in the resource industry, that's Rick Rule. He writes himself a one-page essay for every position he buys. And so if you're not doing that kind of work, you are just at the whim of forces outside of your control and understanding. And that is the majority of investors in the broad equity market. Do you think they're doing that work before they're throwing cash at Nvidia? Like I doubt it. And you have to remember the market's a competition. It's a market. There's two forces at play. And so when you're buying a position in a company, you're having a disagreement with whoever is selling you those shares. Because for you to buy, somebody has to sell to you. That's a market. And if you can't sit there and say, "Why am I so convicted that this company is undervalued and therefore the share price is going to go up?" Hopefully that's why you're buying. But on the other side of that trade, somebody is saying, "I think it's overvalued and I'm going to sell because the share price is going to go down." If you can ask yourself honestly, what do I know that that person probably doesn't? Then stay out of that arena. you don't have a competitive advantage, right? But people confuse investing with trading share prices, and those are very different things. Most people in the broad equity market, they're just trading share prices even though they think they're investing. And that confusion is how people get whacked when the market's correct. >> You've done a lot of shows on your own um channel. You've done a lot of interviews. Consistently, the analysts or strategists who have made the best calls, most consistently correct calls. um what are they doing that perhaps somebody else isn't that you've noticed at least >> they're being very strategic with how much capital they're risking at any one time meaning um whatever is in an asset that they consider somewhat speculative and I would say the broad equities market today is is very speculative um you know that's bolstered by a stable side of their barbell and so um you know simply put the barbell approach is is very safe haven even assets on one side and then you know maybe speculative industries where you have a competitive advantage on the other side and if you're sur so fortunate to generate profits on the asymmetric bets on that speculative side you pull those over and park them in the safe haven bucket. Now, why is that what I see uh as the most common habit in the best investors I talk to is because what they all have in common like the top performing investors inside and outside of the resource sector is duration. They've stayed at the table through good markets and bad. And the only way you do that is by making sure whatever happens on the asymmetric speculative side, it doesn't matter because you've got the the stable side buffed out and that's going to carry you through any volatility. You know, in addition, uh if you've built out the stable side of your barbell wi with enough wealth that you know you can weather a storm, it gives you the confidence to stomach volatility that other investors can't. If you're all in on some speculative bet or you're all in on broad equities, what happens in the event of a 20% correction? Like that's really hard to deal with and you'll probably end up panicking and selling selling during that dip when maybe the usually the better approach is to be patient and and and wait, right? But if you haven't got enough in the conservative end of your barbell and you're all in on whatever speculative idea, it's very hard to emotionally handle that volatility. Um, so number one, David, it's like being very careful about how you where you put your profits and how much you put on the table, um, in terms of what you can afford to lose. And number two is proper diligence, right? That that onepage worksheet, the essay, whatever your processes, you need a process, right? A headline, a tip, that that's not a strategy in the markets. That's how you get wiped out quickly. And so, you know, it's easy to say you have a plan. It's harder to make one and even harder to follow it once emotion takes over and you start dealing with market volatility and share prices going up or down and you want to break your rules. But without question, the best investors that I talk to on my show at my conference all have a firm set of rules and they don't break them. The uh topic of bricks, the uh emergence of the BRICS countries, that's been discussed on my show and yours as well, I noticed. and um the the idea that there's now a bifurcation of world powers, how is that going to affect our investment landscape here? >> I think that we're seeing a massive breakup of global supply chains in response to whatever you want to call dellobalization or French shoring. We're definitely in a new era of trade. That that much is absolutely certain. My entire life thus far has been the era of globalization. We're now in the next era and it's not clear exactly how that will shake out but it will definitely be different and right now back to that lens of viewing the world developments through the lens of US and China competitiveness I think that's very important and you know um there's a lot of countries right now who are trying to thread the needle of neutrality and maintain decent relations with the US and China uh Canada being one right Canada is actively trying to trade more with China just uh signed a massive trade deal with Indonesia and trying to utilize the longest coastline in the world with access to three oceans that in theory provides you a direct line to any global market, but simultaneously Canada shares the largest land border in the world with the United States. So, they're never going to decouple. Canada is always going to be US aligned. They can try to be neutral, but they're always going to be US aligned. A country like Australia is a bit different, right? They have trade relationships with the US and China and much stronger trade relationships with China. That's their biggest customer. So, they're trying to thread the needle of neutrality right now and not pick a side. Militarily, they're aligned with the United States. Uh, from a corporate standpoint, they're aligned with China. And from a proximity standpoint, China is actually a better partner from a trade cost perspective because of where they're located in the world. And then you have economies like Saudi Arabia who have done a great job at staying neutral and playing both sides. But you know just last uh two weeks ago I'm sure you saw this. So you know a month ago we saw uh Doha in Qatar get bombed by the Israelis and the United States effectively supports this because they financed the Israeli military. And that made a lot of headlines. Why did that happen? How did that happen? All this. What got far less headlines was two weeks later when Saudi Arabia signed the defense pact with Pakistan, right? Which is the only Muslim majority nuclear armed country in the world. And the way they got that nuclear technology was by partnering with China. So it's Chinese nuclear tech which de facto put Saudi Arabia now under the nuclear umbrella of China. They are now militarily aligned with China. And that is a headline that you should pay attention to because the whole story behind the petro dollar of my whole life has been Saudi Arabia will be protected by the United States. And now the opposite is true. And so, you know, as the global chessboard shakes out like this, we don't know what alliances and and allies and adversaries will be formed over the next 5 10 years. And and governments don't either. And so they're scrambling right now to secure their supply of resources from friendly nations and firm up those relationships with friendly nations who have the resources they need. And you're now seeing a lot of state creep in the United States. The US government's become very active investing in the resource sector. This is state capitalism, right? The lithium America's deal. They're taking a 10% stake in Lithium Americas. They provided a $245 billion fund to US Antimony Corp. Uh the Department of Defense is financing MP materials to build a rare earth refinery in the United States. I mean, these are practices that are that are common in China, right? State capitalism is a practice every day there. This is kind of new in the United States and people may snub their nose at that. I mean, I'm a I'm a free market entrepreneur. I want small government. I want to be left alone. But as a commodity investor, this is actually fantastic news because you now have the deep pockets. If you're going to print money and you're going to devalue the currency, which the United States government will do, at least put that capital to productive use. So when I see this money moving into the commodity sector, I'm actually enthused by it because I know money will be printed no matter what. Currencies will be devalued no matter what. So at least put that into productive industries. We're seeing this gap widen between the competitive nature of the US and the China economy. And that's one of the reasons is because China's been very strategic with how they subsidize their competitive sectors and the United States has not been. They've focused on entitlements instead. Uh and this administration has become much more uh strategic with how capital is being allocated and I think that's great news. I'm excited to see it. >> I appreciate your insights, Jay. So, uh we'll leave it here. Thank you again. And uh we'll follow you on uh YouTube and um tell us where we can follow you exactly, all those social media links. >> Yeah. Yeah. I'm easy to find on social media, J Martin. My podcast is the J Martin show, but where you should go is vicia.com and join us in Vancouver on January 25th and 26th. David will be live on stage hosting an amazing amount of conversations. We've got about a hundred keynote speakers this year, David, coming to that show. I'm super jazzed on it. It'll be really fun. 300 junior mining companies on the trade show floor and about 8,000 investors expected to attend this year. It's going to be a high energy conference with the state of the metals market. So January 25th, 26, Vancouver, British Columbia, vicia.com for tickets. Well, I can um follow up with you again closer to January, but just give us a teaser for now based on what you have scheduled so far in terms of programming. What can we expect this year? What are some of the major themes for this year and what's different this year versus last year? Yeah. >> Yeah. Great. I mean, the big difference between this year and last year is that there's a lot more capital flowing to this industry. Um, the way I structure the agenda, David, is I like to start as as sort of high level as possible. And so, you know, we've got folks like uh Colonel Douglas McGregor, Pascal Loa, these geopolitical analysts who come in and talk about with a lot more expertise and experience the shape that international relations are taking and the the the impact on trade that will occur as a consequence. Now, that matters for commodity investors because what we're talking about when we say trade is the trade of raw materials. So then we go one layer down into macro finance and we look at the fiscal and monetary policies of the world's strongest economies and what they're doing from a trade standpoint to secure access to these resources. We go a layer deeper and say okay who are the companies producing, exploring and developing for these resources. And so we try to frame the whole resource picture from the top down to you know and in our workshops we have six stages uh one main stage where these sort of bigger macro and geopolitical conversations occur and then five workshops we've got stock pickers analysts who get up on stage and just share directly where they are allocating capital for the year ahead. And so if you want to understand the big picture, you want to get right down to stock picking, that's the journey that we take with this conference and it's uh it's two days of just talking shop in the mining business. >> Good. We'll put the links down below. Follow VIC there. Thank you, Jay. Uh enjoy your time away from Canada and we'll see you back in the cold Canadian winter. >> Yeah, sounds good, David. Great to see you, man. >> And uh thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
Stock Market Trap: Investor Reveals ‘Very Hot’ Q4 Trade | Jay Martin
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This is the place where mines should be built. I'm not That is the place. Canada is the place where mine should be built. Last 10 years, man, I I just lost confidence in our ability to turn this country around. I mean, everything I just said, David, a country can have all the right ingredients and still make horrible political choices and squander that opportunity. What do you think has happened to Canada's economy since Trump has taken office? How have tariffs impacted the economy? Pretty broad question, but I'll let you answer however you like. based on your observation, based on the stats you've seen, based on the people you've talked to. I'm pleased to be joined by Jay Martin, president and CEO of VRIC and VR Media. Jay's unique in that he's an investor himself. He's talked to a lot of investors and professionals on his own show. Check it out on YouTube. He runs a great podcast where he's interviewed a lot of people um in the uh gold, precious metals uh and economic spaces. So, he's got his pulse on what the experts are feeling. We'll get his own opinion as well as um a synopsis of what people have been telling him on his show and ultimately what people watching this show right now should be doing with their money. Jay, welcome back to the show. Always good to see you. >> It's good to see you, David. Great to reconnect, man. >> Yeah, happy uh happy you're here and um I'm happy you invited me again to the VR, the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, one of the biggest resource conferences in the world. It's happening in January. So, I'll be there attending, filming on site, moderating some panels, and looking forward to it, man. So, thank you again for the invitation. People should check that out closer to January. Let's start with what people have been telling you about gold and silver. Is it time to take profits? No doubt you've been asking the same question. I'll ask you, what do you think? Well, let me just start by asking you what people have been telling you in regards to that question, and then I'll get your own opinion. >> Yeah, I mean, they're, you know, they're one and the same, right? As a podcast host, I tend to synthesize the variety of opinions that I hear uh and I talk to people on the show that I respect and want to learn from. And so, you know, my investment thesis generally comes through conversation and then personal diligence. Uh probably not unlike yourself. And so, you know, the way I'm reading this gold market a couple ways. Number one, I I'd say it's the most textbook gold bull market you could expect if you you know, investors are always impatient. Why isn't the, you know, the mid-tier is running or the developers running or the exploration companies running? Investors are always impatient. But if you look at the way capital has trickled down through this bull market, it's been incredibly textbook back to 2023 when central banks were buying gold at a record numbers and the physical price began to respond. Uh towards the end of 2023, 2024, the best-in-class royalty companies hit all-time highs. 2024 2025 best-in-class miners hit all-time highs. And this year, the cash has continued to trickle down to the mid-tier producers, funded and unfunded developers, and even some exploration companies. But what investors really need to keep front and center right now in this market is the difference between an investment and a speculation in the gold market. An investment is ao eagle, a numont, a wheat and precious metal that you can hold through a secular bull market because it's a cash flowing business that will ride the macro trend. but a speculation, a earlier stage exploration or early stage development play. I'm in a bunch of, you know, uh, investment clubs and groups and I'm seeing people celebrate 500% gains on some early stage company, but they're not de-risking because they're holding out for some target they've got on their mind. You can't treat speculations that way. When the market gives you a gift to derisk your position, you take it. An investment is a cash flowing business that rides the macro trend. A speculation is uh a venture that you're waiting for, a catalyst that may move the share price. Well, the catalyst is here, right? It's called market momentum and sentiment. And so, if you're sitting on 100% 200%, 300% gain, I'm not saying sell your position. But I am saying if you look at the best investors in the business who have survived good and bad markets for decades, they do one thing very very well and that's sell and derisk. They're exceptional at not losing money. If you're looking at the Rick Rules or the Jesters, the Thomas Kaplins, they're probably not much better at buying than you are. But I guarantee you for most investors, they're much better at selling and they're very quick to take profits and take a risk-free ride if they can withdraw their principle. And and that I think is the most important thing gold investors need to hear right now because the speculations are volatile. They're frothy right now. Take that win. It's a gift from the market. derisk, reinvest that capital into major gold producers. That's what I'm doing. I'm taking capital off the table in the early stage opportunities, but I'm keeping it in the gold market. I'm just parking it in the more stable bets for long term. Uh so speculations when they offer you the opportunity to derisk, take that opportunity right away. >> Would you say that gold, the bullying itself, I'm not talking about junior explorers now. I'm talking about the bullion itself having run up almost 50% year to date. Jay, is that now a speculative asset for you? >> No, it's it's not a speculative asset for me. Gold can't be a speculative asset for me because it's it's a safe haven asset. That's why I've defined it and I treat it in my portfolio. And at this point in my life, it's a buy only asset. I don't see it in bubble territory at this point. I think we'll see that in my lifetime. And then maybe for the first time in my life, gold won't be a buy only asset. Maybe it'll be a sell asset in that bubble environment. But I don't think we're there. Would I expect a correction in the gold price? I certainly wouldn't be surprised by one. I mean, you have to whenever you look at an asset like this, you got to remember there's always two factors at play. There's two buyers, right? There's the long-term investor and there's the short-term trader or speculator, right? Some people do see gold as a speculation, so they're going to treat it that way, right? are they going to try to swing trade it and sell the tops and catch the bottoms? And I don't do that. But inside a big trend, right, even if it's a secular bull market, there's all sorts of little trends occurring inside of that because of the short-term shorttime horizon traders and speculators. So, you know, gold's really hot right now. Nothing goes straight up forever and gold won't either. It will correct. Um, and you know, if there's instability everywhere right now, it doesn't matter which direction you look. If you're looking at broad equities or geopolitical relationships, trade agreements, everything is very uncertain. And so in the event of some kind of a liquidity crisis, everything gets sold, even gold, right? People flood back to the US dollar because they have to make their payment obligations. So there's a there's a handful of factors that could trigger a correction in the gold price. I wouldn't be surprised by it, but my time horizon for gold isn't two years, so I'm not worried about that. My time horizon for gold is 5 to 10 years at this point and so I'm okay with the short-term volatility if it arrives. Gold prices have continuously hit all-time highs this year in 2025. Stellar Gold in the mining industry is a name worth watching. Today's sponsor, Stellar Gold is a gold developer with two of the largest undeveloped gold projects in Canada. The Tower Gold Project in the well-known Timmans Mining Camp and the Caramac Gold Project in the Northwest Territories. They just released plans for the towers and the numbers are impressive. The project could deliver a $2.5 billion after tax net present value at spot gold price and produce 273,000 ounces annually over 19 years. Backed by a proven management team with a relentless drive for success, Stellar is positioned to unlock serious value for investors. To learn more, go to stellar gold.com/davalin in the link down below or scan the QR code here. And don't forget to read their cautionary statements, forwardlooking information, and risk disclosures, which are all available on the website and on Cedar. So, let's talk about what people have been telling you about the economy. What are some of the biggest macro trends and themes that you've been discussing on your own show? In other words, what's shaping up to be 2026 relative to 2025? >> Yeah, more uncertainty is the is the short term. I think every year this decade we've been hit with a bit of a haymaker we're only halfway through and I don't expect that dance to slow down. Um and you know uh it's it's everything we're looking at right now globally is kind of through the lens of China US competitiveness and if you use that as a filter to understand most major global headlines things begin to make a lot more sense. You know, it's important when you see these major headlines, global macro, to just like go one layer deeper all the time, right? Recently, the United States has been on a roll announcing uh foreign investment in the US economy, right? It's like great PR. We've got 100 billion promised from Taiwan. We've got 350 billion promised from South Korea, 600 billion from Saudi Arabia. And all of this stuff sounds great, but the question you need to ask is how real is that money? And if you go one layer beneath the headline, like let's look at South Korea for example, a $350 billion promise to invest in the US economy is what got them out of tariffs. So that was the agreement. But now the bills do when it's time to invest the capital and they don't have it. So what are they going to do? I mean, they have three options, right? They can pull it out of their economy from somewhere in the government budget that already needs it. If they do that, the president of South Korea has already said this would trigger an economic crisis in this country on par with the 1997 Asian financial crisis. I think 2008, but in Korea, it's in a democratic country, it's completely unpalatable. They're not going to do that politically. Option two is that they borrow the money from the United States. And by the way, they've already asked, right? They've asked, could we borrow swapline 350 billion and invest it into your economy that way? So, you know, read between the lines what happens. The US prints the money, gives it to South Korea. They invested back into the US economy. It's not really foreign investment. It's just currency devaluation. And the third option is that South Korea already owns a lot of US assets because like many countries, they've been investing in the US for 30, 40 years. So they own stocks, bonds, e equities, real estate. And they could liquidate some of their US assets to the tune of $350 billion. And this is probably what they're going to do. and then invest that cash in the US economy. But like you're tracking here. Just because you pull money out and put it back in doesn't make it new money, right? It's just a game. And if you dive one layer deeper on a lot of this trade aggression, that's what you'll see. You'll see an unsustainable agreement. So a shortcut has to be taken. And when I see all of that chaos, like, you know, the spidey sense goes up a little bit. You're like, "This doesn't make sense." You know, it doesn't mean I I doesn't give me certainty on what's going to happen in the future. And when I don't have certainty, I want stable non-correlated assets with zero counterparty risk. I'm not alone. That's why the commodity sector is hot right now because people go towards hot hard assets in times of uncertainty. And you know, that's that's one microcosm, but it's everywhere in our global macro right now. >> I'm going to get to the heart of your portfolio allocation in just a minute. Towards the end of the interview, I'm also going to get uh some predictions out of Jay. I'll get your uh stock market and gold price and silver price predictions towards the end. We'll get some crystal ball reading as I like to call it. Uh so stay tuned till the end and don't forget to subscribe to this channel to get daily updates. And don't forget to subscribe to Jay's channel. He's done some wonderful work. Link down below to see Jay's channel. Now I want to talk about Canada first. You and I are both Canadian. uh although currently you're presently not in Canada but uh we're both Canadian and people have asked me what have your experts told you on your show in regards to the Canadian economy and the truth is I haven't covered the Canadian economy much so I'm going to start doing more of that what do you think has happened to Canada's economy since Trump has taken office have tariffs impacted the economy pretty broad question but I'll let you answer however you like based on your observation based on the stats you've seen based on the people you've talked to >> yeah the the number one impact on the Canadian economy from the trade aggression and and tariff talk has just been fear in the mindset of Canadian business owners. So nothing super real has materialized. There has been some direct uh impacts. Good friend of mine for example um is in the martial arts equipment sector. He manufactures in China, sells to America. Full stop on his business for the time being. That's that's very damaging. But generally speaking, it's more of a fear-based impact in the Canadian economy right now, which is very real. That leads to companies investing less, buying less, spending less, just battening the hatches and waiting until they have some kind of certainty on the future. Now, I am seeing that fear of bait a little bit and the economy is getting back to business as usual to a degree, but that David has been the number one impact. It's all the entrepreneurs I talked to and and uh it's that it's just we don't know what's going to happen. and we don't know what's around the corner. And so right now, it's time to move slowly and carefully. And Canada can't really withstand that for very long because our economy is not in a good place, right? Um, keep in mind like it wasn't that long ago, 2008, Canada came through the GFC with a healthier balance sheet than any other G7 nation. When this country is managed properly, it does extraordinarily well because it's colossal. It's the second largest country in the world with a very small population and it's very resourceri. So wealth per capita has the potential to be very high. But today GDP per capita is like on par with Alabama. Like if all the chat about the 51st state back a few months ago was hilarious. If Canada was actually to become the 51st state, I believe on a GDP per capita basis it would be the third poorest state in America. And that's just poor management, right? The ingredients are here, right? And we've proven this in the past that when Canada is a simple country, right? We do resource extraction and export extraordinarily well. And when that's functioning well, all the incillary industries catch some cash flow trickle from our pillar industry. But if you vilify the pillar industry, which is what's been done for the last 10 years, everything else suffers. >> Well, let's talk about the resource section. Sorry, please go ahead. Sorry. >> Yeah. No, just Canada is a country where you should be building mines in your backyard because we have some of the highest environmental standards, social standards, compliance, and reporting. This is the place where mines should be built. I'm not that is the place. Canada is the place where mine should be built. Uh and uh it's something the country knows how to do uh from an engineering and mechanics standpoint, but it's been vilified for 10 years. We're getting out of that, right? The new prime minister has surprised me and been incredibly favorable to the resource industry. So, I'm uh I'm not in Canada. I'm divesting from Canada. I'm currently in Indonesia. My kids go to school here, but I haven't given up on Canada. It's still home. >> Why Why are you divesting from Canada? >> Last last 10 years, man, I I just lost confidence in our ability to turn this country around. I mean, everything I just said, David, a country can have all the right ingredients and still make horrible political choices and squander that opportunity. That's what happened to Argentina, right? Argentina at the beginning of the 20th century was one of the wealthiest countries in the world. They had a very healthy commodity industry, massive coastline, export industry. It was like rocking and everyone around the world knew the term the wealthy Argentinian. But you and I would never think about Argent Argentina that way. They got crushed in the Great Depression like every other country. But instead of recovering, they voted voted in a socialist government that promised to intervene and fix everything. and it costs them 80 years of productivity. And so you can have the right ingredients, but if it's managed improperly, it doesn't matter. And Canada to me four years ago looked to be on that tipping point. Two years ago looked to be on that tipping point. Now I think we're getting over it and trending back the right direction. But as a just in case, we've been spending a lot more time in Asia for the last 3 years. As mentioned, my kids are in school here now. We just want optionality. And so that's that's all we're looking for right now is optionality just in case plans. >> So let's talk about the resource sector. Last I checked, uh the GDX is up 90% year to date. Now obviously not all the companies within the GDX index, the uh VNC gold miners index are located in Canada, although a big chunk are headquartered in Vancouver. So I'm wondering how the resource sector is responding to the unprecedented gold price, the rise in share price, um soaring valuations of their companies. Are they actually getting more capital from investors? Are they actually deploying the capital to more drilling and exploration? What have you noticed? You talked to a lot of mining companies. You worked with a lot of mining companies and you host hundreds of them on your own on your own um conference. So, what do you think? What's going on? Yeah, right now I'm really impressed with the stewardship in the mining sector, specifically the gold, the precious metal sector because uh very high quality companies with worldclass management or companies that appear to be on the cusp of a world-class asset discovery are able to raise capital um on their terms, which is, you know, good for the sector if that capital is put to productive use. And the mining industry has been punished for long enough that a lot of the bad behavior from the previous bull market in 2009, 10 and 11 uh you know the previous highs in this industry that was so long ago and the industry has been so challenging since then that most of the bad actors have been squeezed out because there's been no easy money to be made. Now, right now, the industry is therefore in this sweet spot where most people who are running companies in the sector, they survived the last 10-year bare market and now they're being rewarded for it. They're raising capital, but they're very conscious that shareholder expectations are incredibly high and they need to deliver on that, right? And so, I'm seeing great use of capital and I think this is good news. Uh, call them the the penny dreadfuls or the super early stage expiration companies. they're not having an easy time accessing capital. And quite frankly, they shouldn't, right? It shouldn't be easy to raise money for a very uncertain bet. When that starts happening, that's when the market begins to get a little bit more frothy than I'm comfortable with. As I mentioned at the front end of this interview, I see this bull market as is very like systematic and logical, and that's good news. It's been slow and patient. It's been about 3 years of capital trickling down from the physical gold to the major best-in-class equities and now to the mid-tier producers and funded developers, etc. If you remember the gold market in 2020, it was like 6 months and everything from precious from from physical gold to explorers suddenly popped and it ended just as fast as it began. That's not a healthy market. What we're seeing today is a very healthy market. So, you know, best-in-class entrepreneurs are raising cash. They're raising a lot of it, and they're putting that capital to work. Um, I expect October, November to be very hot months in the gold market. Um, and I I I pray that it continues to uh develop with methodical patience and and uh logic. And let's hope that's the case. >> Jay, what have people been telling you about the stock market, the direction of the stock market into 2026 and 2020 and beyond perhaps? But let's just stick with 2026, the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. What have people told you in regards to valuations uh and where they see the direction headed? >> Yeah. Sentiment right now, broad equities, for most of the broad equity investors that I talked to, they land in one of two camps. Either they're blindly bullish and they can't see anything that would shake this sentiment or they're incredibly conservative, de-risking, and see the market right now as a house of cards. I tend to see it as a house of cards strictly just because of the consolidation of capital. on so few names. The market is held up by four or five companies right now. And with the US administration's announcement this week of the $100,000 fee for H1B H-1B visa workers, uh I'm interested to see next week how the market responds to that because for country companies like Amazon, you know, they have over 10,000 workers that are now um hit by this $100,000 tax. That's a per worker fee. That's a billion dollar tax on Amazon. And you know, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, uh they all have about 5,000 of these workers. That's a half a billion dollar tax on each of them. Now, I'm not taking this announcement at face value. I think the administration has a pattern of making very sensational headlines and then, you know, rolling out a more pragmatic strategy a couple weeks later. put on its face. This looks pretty devastating to big tech and big tech is what's carried the equity market. So if that stumbles, uh, it's a problem. Um, you know, and in addition, David, like I, you know, I don't know if you're you're chatting about this, but you know, it's it's big tech that's been carrying the equity market. Now, a couple months ago, there was about 20 VCs that went on a tour of China's high-tech industry, specifically clean tech and battery technology. They came from the United States and they came from Europe. And the Wall Street Journal reported when they got back on their analysis. And what they determined was that there's about five or six tech industries in the United States, including battery manufacturing, electric vehicles, solar generation, that they now deem uninvestable in the United States economy because of how much further ahead their Chinese competitors are. Now, just from a capital allocator standpoint, these VCs have said, "It's not productive to us to invest in these American tech industries because there's already Chinese competitors that are way too far ahead. We're not going to catch them." And so, they're looking at other directions to invest this capital back home. And if that's the case today, and China already employs more robot workers than the rest of the world combined. There's like 2 million robots in the labor force. And last year they added 300,000 more automatic robots into the labor force. The United States by contrast added 34,000. So 10% right. So if the gap is already so wide that VCs are coming home and saying we can't invest in battery manufacturing in the US anymore. In addition, China is automating their tech sector at a speed of 10x via robotic automation. Like what's going to happen to that gap? What's going to happen to the equity market that's held up by those companies? It's like I'm I'd be very cautious. I don't have any money in the broad equity market. I'm very barbelled in my portfolio. I'm I'm aggressive in the speculative industries that I know well and then I park cash in safe haven assets for the long term. But if I don't have a competitive advantage, I don't put cash there. And now look at the broad equity market. I don't have a competitive advantage there. That's just that's just the pool of money that gets, you know, flooded in by people with a good idea or the saw headline. And so I don't I don't play in that arena. What do you do about that concentration risk? You're right. And that's a theme that's been discussed on my show as well, the fact that the S&P is now 44% or 45% tech uh the big tech companies. And I was just reading a report by the WF, the World Economic Forum, that uh the tech companies have spent more capex than the average S&P 500 company in the last four quarters. And so they're carrying not just the entire market cap, but also spending as well. What do you do in that kind of environment, in that kind of investing environment? I straight up I don't participate and I encourage investors to think very critically about why they're investing in this market. Is it because they just think the QQQ always goes up? Like if that's your thesis, just maybe look at a history just for, you know, a minute, right? And and think you should be able to identify why you're buying a a position in a company like that. That is just like table stakes. If you're an investor, what's your diligence process? You know, when I buy a position in the company, David, I have a one-page worksheet that I fill out. And at the top of it is the three to five reasons that I bought a position in this company. And then there's the three to five reasons that I believe the share price might be impacted and what might do that. And then there's the three to five reasons that I might be wrong and might want to sell that position. And the I didn't make this up. This is through uh osmosis with the best investors that I get to stay in touch with. And you know, in in the resource industry, that's Rick Rule. He writes himself a one-page essay for every position he buys. And so if you're not doing that kind of work, you are just at the whim of forces outside of your control and understanding. And that is the majority of investors in the broad equity market. Do you think they're doing that work before they're throwing cash at Nvidia? Like I doubt it. And you have to remember the market's a competition. It's a market. There's two forces at play. And so when you're buying a position in a company, you're having a disagreement with whoever is selling you those shares. Because for you to buy, somebody has to sell to you. That's a market. And if you can't sit there and say, "Why am I so convicted that this company is undervalued and therefore the share price is going to go up?" Hopefully that's why you're buying. But on the other side of that trade, somebody is saying, "I think it's overvalued and I'm going to sell because the share price is going to go down." If you can ask yourself honestly, what do I know that that person probably doesn't? Then stay out of that arena. you don't have a competitive advantage, right? But people confuse investing with trading share prices, and those are very different things. Most people in the broad equity market, they're just trading share prices even though they think they're investing. And that confusion is how people get whacked when the market's correct. >> You've done a lot of shows on your own um channel. You've done a lot of interviews. Consistently, the analysts or strategists who have made the best calls, most consistently correct calls. um what are they doing that perhaps somebody else isn't that you've noticed at least >> they're being very strategic with how much capital they're risking at any one time meaning um whatever is in an asset that they consider somewhat speculative and I would say the broad equities market today is is very speculative um you know that's bolstered by a stable side of their barbell and so um you know simply put the barbell approach is is very safe haven even assets on one side and then you know maybe speculative industries where you have a competitive advantage on the other side and if you're sur so fortunate to generate profits on the asymmetric bets on that speculative side you pull those over and park them in the safe haven bucket. Now, why is that what I see uh as the most common habit in the best investors I talk to is because what they all have in common like the top performing investors inside and outside of the resource sector is duration. They've stayed at the table through good markets and bad. And the only way you do that is by making sure whatever happens on the asymmetric speculative side, it doesn't matter because you've got the the stable side buffed out and that's going to carry you through any volatility. You know, in addition, uh if you've built out the stable side of your barbell wi with enough wealth that you know you can weather a storm, it gives you the confidence to stomach volatility that other investors can't. If you're all in on some speculative bet or you're all in on broad equities, what happens in the event of a 20% correction? Like that's really hard to deal with and you'll probably end up panicking and selling selling during that dip when maybe the usually the better approach is to be patient and and and wait, right? But if you haven't got enough in the conservative end of your barbell and you're all in on whatever speculative idea, it's very hard to emotionally handle that volatility. Um, so number one, David, it's like being very careful about how you where you put your profits and how much you put on the table, um, in terms of what you can afford to lose. And number two is proper diligence, right? That that onepage worksheet, the essay, whatever your processes, you need a process, right? A headline, a tip, that that's not a strategy in the markets. That's how you get wiped out quickly. And so, you know, it's easy to say you have a plan. It's harder to make one and even harder to follow it once emotion takes over and you start dealing with market volatility and share prices going up or down and you want to break your rules. But without question, the best investors that I talk to on my show at my conference all have a firm set of rules and they don't break them. The uh topic of bricks, the uh emergence of the BRICS countries, that's been discussed on my show and yours as well, I noticed. and um the the idea that there's now a bifurcation of world powers, how is that going to affect our investment landscape here? >> I think that we're seeing a massive breakup of global supply chains in response to whatever you want to call dellobalization or French shoring. We're definitely in a new era of trade. That that much is absolutely certain. My entire life thus far has been the era of globalization. We're now in the next era and it's not clear exactly how that will shake out but it will definitely be different and right now back to that lens of viewing the world developments through the lens of US and China competitiveness I think that's very important and you know um there's a lot of countries right now who are trying to thread the needle of neutrality and maintain decent relations with the US and China uh Canada being one right Canada is actively trying to trade more with China just uh signed a massive trade deal with Indonesia and trying to utilize the longest coastline in the world with access to three oceans that in theory provides you a direct line to any global market, but simultaneously Canada shares the largest land border in the world with the United States. So, they're never going to decouple. Canada is always going to be US aligned. They can try to be neutral, but they're always going to be US aligned. A country like Australia is a bit different, right? They have trade relationships with the US and China and much stronger trade relationships with China. That's their biggest customer. So, they're trying to thread the needle of neutrality right now and not pick a side. Militarily, they're aligned with the United States. Uh, from a corporate standpoint, they're aligned with China. And from a proximity standpoint, China is actually a better partner from a trade cost perspective because of where they're located in the world. And then you have economies like Saudi Arabia who have done a great job at staying neutral and playing both sides. But you know just last uh two weeks ago I'm sure you saw this. So you know a month ago we saw uh Doha in Qatar get bombed by the Israelis and the United States effectively supports this because they financed the Israeli military. And that made a lot of headlines. Why did that happen? How did that happen? All this. What got far less headlines was two weeks later when Saudi Arabia signed the defense pact with Pakistan, right? Which is the only Muslim majority nuclear armed country in the world. And the way they got that nuclear technology was by partnering with China. So it's Chinese nuclear tech which de facto put Saudi Arabia now under the nuclear umbrella of China. They are now militarily aligned with China. And that is a headline that you should pay attention to because the whole story behind the petro dollar of my whole life has been Saudi Arabia will be protected by the United States. And now the opposite is true. And so, you know, as the global chessboard shakes out like this, we don't know what alliances and and allies and adversaries will be formed over the next 5 10 years. And and governments don't either. And so they're scrambling right now to secure their supply of resources from friendly nations and firm up those relationships with friendly nations who have the resources they need. And you're now seeing a lot of state creep in the United States. The US government's become very active investing in the resource sector. This is state capitalism, right? The lithium America's deal. They're taking a 10% stake in Lithium Americas. They provided a $245 billion fund to US Antimony Corp. Uh the Department of Defense is financing MP materials to build a rare earth refinery in the United States. I mean, these are practices that are that are common in China, right? State capitalism is a practice every day there. This is kind of new in the United States and people may snub their nose at that. I mean, I'm a I'm a free market entrepreneur. I want small government. I want to be left alone. But as a commodity investor, this is actually fantastic news because you now have the deep pockets. If you're going to print money and you're going to devalue the currency, which the United States government will do, at least put that capital to productive use. So when I see this money moving into the commodity sector, I'm actually enthused by it because I know money will be printed no matter what. Currencies will be devalued no matter what. So at least put that into productive industries. We're seeing this gap widen between the competitive nature of the US and the China economy. And that's one of the reasons is because China's been very strategic with how they subsidize their competitive sectors and the United States has not been. They've focused on entitlements instead. Uh and this administration has become much more uh strategic with how capital is being allocated and I think that's great news. I'm excited to see it. >> I appreciate your insights, Jay. So, uh we'll leave it here. Thank you again. And uh we'll follow you on uh YouTube and um tell us where we can follow you exactly, all those social media links. >> Yeah. Yeah. I'm easy to find on social media, J Martin. My podcast is the J Martin show, but where you should go is vicia.com and join us in Vancouver on January 25th and 26th. David will be live on stage hosting an amazing amount of conversations. We've got about a hundred keynote speakers this year, David, coming to that show. I'm super jazzed on it. It'll be really fun. 300 junior mining companies on the trade show floor and about 8,000 investors expected to attend this year. It's going to be a high energy conference with the state of the metals market. So January 25th, 26, Vancouver, British Columbia, vicia.com for tickets. Well, I can um follow up with you again closer to January, but just give us a teaser for now based on what you have scheduled so far in terms of programming. What can we expect this year? What are some of the major themes for this year and what's different this year versus last year? Yeah. >> Yeah. Great. I mean, the big difference between this year and last year is that there's a lot more capital flowing to this industry. Um, the way I structure the agenda, David, is I like to start as as sort of high level as possible. And so, you know, we've got folks like uh Colonel Douglas McGregor, Pascal Loa, these geopolitical analysts who come in and talk about with a lot more expertise and experience the shape that international relations are taking and the the the impact on trade that will occur as a consequence. Now, that matters for commodity investors because what we're talking about when we say trade is the trade of raw materials. So then we go one layer down into macro finance and we look at the fiscal and monetary policies of the world's strongest economies and what they're doing from a trade standpoint to secure access to these resources. We go a layer deeper and say okay who are the companies producing, exploring and developing for these resources. And so we try to frame the whole resource picture from the top down to you know and in our workshops we have six stages uh one main stage where these sort of bigger macro and geopolitical conversations occur and then five workshops we've got stock pickers analysts who get up on stage and just share directly where they are allocating capital for the year ahead. And so if you want to understand the big picture, you want to get right down to stock picking, that's the journey that we take with this conference and it's uh it's two days of just talking shop in the mining business. >> Good. We'll put the links down below. Follow VIC there. Thank you, Jay. Uh enjoy your time away from Canada and we'll see you back in the cold Canadian winter. >> Yeah, sounds good, David. Great to see you, man. >> And uh thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.