Stocks Are "As Expensive As I've Ever Seen Them" | Ted Oakley

Summary

• Market Outlook: Valuations are at extreme levels (CAPE ~40) with high investor complacency, suggesting a potential generational top in 2026–2027 and elevated correction risk.
• Portfolio Positioning: Advocates a 30-30-30-10 framework with emphasis on Short-term Treasuries, commodities, selective equities, and 10% dry powder; avoids long-duration bonds due to inflation and fiscal risks.
• Precious Metals: Constructive on Silver and Precious Metals, owning silver, silver miners, and royalty companies; notes potential for institutions to chase momentum, while tactically trimming after large gains.
• Energy Sector: Bullish multi-year view on Oil & Gas with attractive dividend yields (6–10%+), underweight status in indices, and favorable supply/demand dynamics; willing to add on weakness.
• Midstream MLPs: Positive on Midstream MLPs (GICS: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation) as income vehicles with ~7.5% yields, K-1 structures, and history of distribution growth.
• Key Companies: Examples mentioned include PBR, APA, MTDR, NOG, NESR, EPD, ET, MPLX, VALE, RIO, MELI, DPZ, GIL, ADSK, and BMY; cited as positions or illustrations within broader themes.
• Rates & Bonds: Prefers Short-term Treasuries (under 24–30 months) and warns against long-duration bonds, noting potential policy-driven inflation resurgence and distrust of fiscal trajectory.
• Risk Management: Emphasizes cash flow, scaling in/out, and value discipline to navigate a possible bear market, with dry powder ready to deploy into dislocations.

Transcript

You know, things are really, really expensive. Now, can they get more expensive? Yeah. But they're about as expensive I've ever seen them. I've never seen, for example, a cape ratio at 40 and current earnings at 24 and a half. I mean, everything is really off the charts. So, could it go could it get higher? Yeah, it could. Uh, it might, but I think you have to think about this as saying that, you know, I'm I'm at least in the eighth or ninth inning. And when you think about it like that, maybe it makes you stop and think a little bit. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Tagert. Short of a dramatic surprise in the next few weeks, the markets should end 2025 with another big doubledigit positive return for the third year in a row. A string of three repeats like this is quite rare in the markets which raises the question, can the momentum last in 2026? Or will the market's return start to mean revert? To discuss, we've got the good fortune of welcoming back to the program high-n networth financial adviser Ted Oakley, managing partner and founder of Oxbow Advisors. Ted, thanks so much for joining us today. >> Good to see you, Adam. >> Ted, it's always such a pleasure to have you on here. I'm very much looking forward to this discussion. and it's been too long since we've had you on last. Uh, a couple quick uh housekeeping things before we get to the meat of the discussion here. One, um, this is the first interview that I've recorded since I broke a tooth this past weekend and had to have an emergency tooth extraction, which was not fun. I'm doing fine now. Uh, but I will admit I'm very self-conscious about this gap that has been left and I'm I'm going to get a replacement tooth for it, but it's going to take like over half a year. Uh, it's crazy how long apparently this takes. So, anyways, uh, I am more than a bit self-conscious about this. Um, hopefully folks won't see it while we're talking here, although eagle-eyed people might be able to to to find out exactly which tooth is missing, but I'm not going to share which one. Uh, but anyways, if I if I seem a little uh uh out of sorts, uh it's because I'm I'm I'm trying to figure out how to talk without showing the gap. >> Well, I don't I haven't noticed anything. If you hadn't said anything, I would never know. >> Okay. Well, that's good to know. And just just to make it clear for folks, it wasn't like tooth decay or anything like that. I literally just broke the tooth. And uh you know, they said, "Look, your your your your teeth were really healthy." Which was what made the extraction so hard. uh because the rest just didn't want to come out. But uh but anyways, um thank you for that. Um also uh we'll talk more about this at the end of today's discussion, Ted. Um but uh you and the Oxbow team will be doing a free webinar uh for the thoughtful money audience next week on succession. Um basically, if you are the one who is managing all the the finances and the investing for your family, uh that's fantastic. But what happens if you can't be there anymore? Uh, you know, either you you get incapacitated, you pass away, whatever. Uh, you decide just to to give up the reigns. Uh, it's something that a lot of this channel's viewers who are DIY investors uh, wrestle with. You know, they they don't necessarily have a family member that they can hand that responsibility to. And so, the question is is okay, well, what do you do in those cases? So, this is a topic of which you are very well experienced at at Oxbow. And I believe we're going to be doing this webinar. I believe it's this coming uh Monday. Uh that's December 15th and we're doing it at 700 p.m. Eastern. Correct. >> Correct. Ryan. >> All right. And folks, uh the if you're interested in attending, it's a free webinar. Uh you can go sign up for it at thoughtfulmoney.com/succession. And again, folks, we'll talk a little bit more about that at the end of this discussion. But at this point, Ted, let's just roll up our sleeves and dive in. Um, so I mentioned in the intro there, we've had, you know, three really robust, um, back-to-back years or backto-back years of double-digit returns for the stock market. Um, you know, is it likely that that continue can continue into 2026? Uh, especially given whatever your outlook for the markets is and maybe why don't we start there. What is your outlook for the economy and the markets right now as we head into the next year? Well, Adam, it looks like, you know, we'll be a little bit slower because I mean, obviously, uh, employment slowing down. You know, that's one of the things that drives it, which probably we may not notice it in the numbers here. We usually don't during Christmas and that period because people for some reason they they dig down deep to make it happen. But >> next year, you know, you're probably going to have lower unemployment, no lower employment. And when that happens, it'll have some impact on the marketplace. It wouldn't surprise me uh since we're ending the year like this to have this roll on into the first quarter and be a pretty good quarter. I do think there's a spot in 26 where you hit a more significant high probably and then you have um a bit more of a setback, but uh that could be second or third quarter. I don't know. But you know, things are really really expensive. Now, can they get more expensive? Yeah. But they're about as expensive as I've ever seen them. I've never seen, for example, a cape ratio at 40 and current earnings at 24 and a half. I mean, everything is really off the charts. So, could it go could it get higher? Yeah, it could. Uh, it might, but I think you have to think about this as saying that, you know, I'm I'm at least in the eighth or ninth inning. And when you think about it like that, maybe it makes you stop and think a little bit. All right, eighth or ninth inning. Um, okay. So, that's got to make you feel like at some point, I'm guessing in 2026, um, you get to the end of the ball game. Uh, and as you mentioned, I think you said, yeah, maybe it could get a bit higher for a while, but then you expect it to have some sort of, um, correction. >> Um, you I've talked with you long enough, Ted, to to know that you you you have had a lot of concerns about the level of valuations. And so when you said that it, you know, it could do well in Q1, could go even higher after that before things head downwards, are are you envisioning sort of like a blowoff top? You know, a lot of people have called this the everything bubble and most bubbles end with a incredible but very short-lived mania where the prices just go higher than anybody could imagine for a brief period of time. Are you expecting something like that or maybe something a little more pedestrian? Well, it's more along the line, you know, you got to remember all the 401 a lot of 401k money gets put in the market in January in the first quarter, you know, and there's a lot of that happening now and those people aren't thinking at all about a sell-off. They're just driving it into the market. So, you'll have that happening and then you'll have, you know, you'll have a bit of uh probably just inertia from, you know, this year going into the first quarter and yeah, you could you could have a peak. I mean, I if I were looking for more of a generational top, I wouldn't say necessarily 26, but I'd say sometime happened in 26 or 27 because by that time, you'll be you're almost a generation past the '08 low. Mhm. >> And so, uh, you've you've got a whole generation that's never seen a really more significant bear, you know, and so, uh, you got to remember that the market has a way of taking every generation and sort of humbling them down somewhere along the way. And I suspect that'll happen in the next two or three years. >> Okay. And let's talk about that for a moment because you have been, you know, in money management for a number of different cycles. Um, and uh, we we we've talked about kind of what a true bare market looks like. And correct me if I'm wrong here, but I don't think you've really seen you don't think we've really seen a bare market since ' 08. Um, you know, 2022, sure, that was a a rough year for investors, but uh on some long-term trend lines, we didn't really break below uh the long-term bullish trend. And it certainly didn't end with the kind of capitulation that I've heard you describe a true bare market has, which is when nobody wants to touch a stock and everybody just sort of swears off them for, you know, a good number of years. So, um, I guess my question is is, you know, are you expecting when we get to the end of the ninth inning here, whether it's 2026 or 2027, that that we that will be because we are entering a true bare market. >> Well, I suspect so. Number one, you know, if you look at demographics by that time, 27, you'll have the average baby boomer be 72 years old. Mhm. >> You know, they're going to be taking money out of the marketplace. But the other side of it is that uh these things come and go. You know, we're two two standard deviations plus above the norm on these averages. And I think I don't think I've ever seen a level of complacency even in the 90s, late 90s, any higher than it is today. I don't think investors generally wake up every day and even remotely think about anything that could be bad happening in the next year or two. They just stay the course and put more money in the same way. And I think the advisors do the same thing, which is one of the problems you have. But that's uh when you get everybody on one side like we are now and and the economy runs on the market, then you got everybody basically set up for something that's probably not going to work in the long run. Okay. So, the way you're describing this, here's sort of how my brain is thinking. Um, which is we have this very high degree of valuation and complacency that you just mentioned, right? So, so markets are very rich and nobody's really worried about it about a downturn. Um uh we we have the potential as you've said here for um you know the the jig just to be up and and eventually we we enter into you know some sort of correction here. Uh and so that could be um a real surprise for people because to your point earlier um I mean it's been almost a generation of of of investors since the the08 great financial crisis. So you have these people that just I mean how long ago was that? That was >> 17 years ago. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. So So you've got a bunch of investors, retail investors, and you've had a a bunch of Wall Street professionals who now have spent, you know, a good chunk of their career and never been through a true bare market, right? So you know, you got high valuations and complacency versus the inexperience of knowing what to do with a bare market when one arrives. And then you're adding on top of that um this dynamic that I've talked a fair amount with with housing analysts about, but I haven't talked to too many people um in your line of work in terms of money management about it about the boomers. Uh you know, in the housing market, you're looking at kind of like 20 years, you know, or more um which is kind of the cohort of the baby boomers. um of sustained selling pressure as boomers get to the age where instead of you know for the past bunch of years we've been having 10,000 of them hit retirement age every day pretty soon and and really even probably starting around now you're getting to the point where 10,000 of them are having to to downsize their house either because they're heading off to the nursing home or because they're dying right and that's going to sustain for a long time as I said so that's going to have a lot of downward pricing pressure on the housing market Because in a lot of cases when a when a boomer leaves their home the house gets sold especially if they have multiple kids because the kids don't know who should get the house so they just say you know what let's just list it and let's split the proceeds. Is there an analog to that in the stock market where boomers are dying with their portfolio and then the portfolio has to be distributed. Is there any sort of selling pressure component associated with that? Well, I think the selling pressure comes more, Adam, from taking care of them. As soon as they start waning as far as health or go into assisted living or that sort of thing, they start burning cash then. It's not like not like before. And so, you know, the children or whoever takes care of it has to start liquidating to take care of that. And then and then they run into maybe some major things where they have to really spend a lot of money on health. I think that's one of the driving things. Secondarily, um, yeah, there'll be some of that fallout, but the thing is when you have no matter what, when you have everybody that owns the same thing, uh, then all your buyers are in, you see, no matter how you want to calculate it. Yeah. >> And so, the next thing is when people start to realize, hey, I need to sell something, >> and you flip it and go the other way. And I, you know, I've been through that before. You get up every day, the market's down and it rallies in the morning for an hour or two and you think, "Hey, it's going to come back." It never does. You know, it's sort of like it is now in reverse. You get a down day and everybody's know, "Nah, no big deal. We'll be up tomorrow, the next day." >> And that's what's happened. That's why people are complacent. But you flip that scenario in a bad market. >> Well, um, so you you flip it in a bad market, and again, you've lived through a number of different market cycles. um what you're talking about here may I hate to use the word you know different this time but maybe a bit different this time because I think you're familiar with Michael Green's analysis of of passive capital flows >> and he talks about you know the passive bid uh and he's done a lot of you know really rigorous research to show that that it's a big factor >> in in stock prices in fact maybe the dominant factor right now and he's almost kind of depressed by this but he's like I think it's going to continue for as long as passive capital flows are positive. But if they flip negative, which they likely will at some point, then watch out because you're going to have this sort of sustained selling pressure just like we've had this sustained buying pressure for the past, you know, couple of decades from it. So, you know, as the boomers, to your point, as they're starting to get sick, needing to cash out on on their their financial assets, that is, like I said, maybe, you know, 20 years or so of just relentless selling and and that may be what pushes passive capital flows into negative territory because rather than putting in, they're taking out. >> Well, it could be. I mean, people are, you know, they don't take losses very well. Mhm. >> So, you know, if you start turning the tide on them and go the other way, then what happens to them is they say, "Well, I need to sell now before it goes lower." And it's just it it's a snowball effect is what it is. And um you know, again, I think people are have basically come to the conclusion that uh you're never going to happen. I mean, that's that's basically what I see with people doing uh that that's never going to happen. And so, you know, you can't you can't really uh talk rational people because they're basically irrational right now. >> Okay. So, we've got people thinking, all right, it's going to be summer forever. You know, you're raising some issues that that say, "Hey, look, winter's going to come at some point and and could come as soon as next year." Um, I'm going to get to in just a second. All right. Well, so how do you how do you manage capital, which you have to do um in this environment? And I don't think it's a go to 100% cash and just sit there environment, at least not yet. Um, before we get there though, let's let's talk about some things that are happening the moment that we're talking here. So, the day that we're recording this, silver just broke out above 60 um $60 an ounce. Um, and silver's been on a tear all year, as has gold um and the mining companies. Uh, Bitcoin is also surging today. I think both silver and Bitcoin today are up about 4%. And I think one of the one of the reasons for that that's being touted in the markets right now is people are thinking that they're sniffing out that the Fed >> is actually going to be quite doubbish uh when you know we get the FOMC released tomorrow and uh and hear from Jerome Jerome Pal's press conference. Now by the time this video comes out folks will know what what Chair Pal has said. Um, but anyways, um, curious to hear your thoughts right now on kind of the rallying in the precious metals, uh, whether you think the Fed is indeed going to cut tomorrow, what you think the Fed's going to be doing in 2026, uh, and, uh, and then we'll get to a couple of other asset classes, too, that are on the move. >> Well, you know, we own silver and we own silver miners. Uh, have for a long time. I say a long time, for a couple of years. But um we we had you know we was knew that you know if you look at sort of a real real prices just for inflation silver is not anywhere close to where it's been a couple of other times >> right >> so um you could still get a lot more out of silver I think all the metals really offer >> you know it's getting to one of those things where countries hoard everything >> and so they're hoarding everything every metal you can think about every precious um sort sort of mineral you can think about and that's becoming a big deal. And I I think in the other side of that is that you know they're just buying that instead of other things. How long does it last? I don't know. These things don't usually last a generation. They're normally like you know four or five year moves. But um we can see but I mean we we like I say we own silver. We own the miners uh and and also some of the royalty companies that that have silver on the royalties, but uh just have to wait, you know, now it's broken out in new territory here price-wise. Um you'll have to see how people chase it. You know, we're starting to see a little bit of chasing. >> Not a lot though. Institutions don't know much of it, but individuals are starting to go the other way with him. >> Yeah. And do you expect the institutions to jump in before this run is over? Um, you know, as you and I have talked about, I think over the years, Wall Street's not a big fan of gold and and and certainly hasn't been of silver for a long time, but more than anything, Wall Street loves momentum and the ability to make profits. And when there's a party going on, eventually it likes to join. Well, I think if they uh I think if the miners got really if if the miners do really really well and they're left out, I'm talking about Wall Street's left out of that, then the thing they would do is chase it. And that's usually what they do with any asset, they chase it at the top and just drive it higher. And that's when you see the volumes go up really, really big. Then you know they're coming for that sort of thing. Same way with gold miners. Um and that's we haven't really quite got to that point yet. We got a little bit in gold mining here a few months ago, but uh you know the chasing's kind of slowed down a little bit right now. And generally I don't see the institutions just you know trying to buy hand over fist in there. >> Okay. But right now you're not um you're not changing your allocations. Um in other words, at least you're not selling your allocations, it sounds like. >> No, we did take we sold some of the miners about a month ago. Not a lot. I mean, but you know, when you get large moves like that, >> right? 100% this year, >> you know, some cases 150 200%. You have to you have to you need to, at least in in this case, take some off because you're not dealing with a company that's making widgets or making a product that's going to be around for, you know, 20 years. I mean, you're these commodity cycles come and go, particularly in the metals. And when you get that kind of move and it just been sitting there for years, then you have to take some of it off the table. You should, I think. >> Okay. Um, I know we've talked in the past, you have uh said you don't really think it's sort of a 6040 world anymore. And if I remember correctly, I think it was a 603010 was sort of the [clears throat] new model you guys were taking on at at Oxbow. Am I getting that correct? >> Well, we had a what we call a 303010. We had a >> Sorry, that's it. That's it. I knew I was misremembering. Okay. Yeah, >> we um and we sort of have that now. We we have, you know, 30% in short-term treasuries. By short-term, I mean less than less than 30 months and then, you know, 30% uh in basically in commodities or commodity based things and 30% in in in stocks. Um and that can be a value or growth company. that and then about we think you need to keep 10% or more just for um trading purposes. In other words, you're going to have situations where things get really cheap. We've had a lot of things get cheap this year uh that we stepped in and used cash on. Uh not necessarily household names that you'd see every day, but things that were really, really good buys. And I think that's what you have to do in this kind of atmosphere. I think the idea that you can buy a long-term bond now is not a good idea. Uh I see people generally losing money on those for a long time. And I I to me if you're buying 20 or 30-year bonds, you're making a big bet on the fact that they can keep inflation in check. But I I doubt that they can, you know, uh over the long run. So that's why we wouldn't step out past, you know, 24 or 30 months with the Treasury. >> Okay. So, um, let me just make sure folks took note of that. So the the 303030 allocation 30 30310 allocation that you think is more appropriate now is um short-term safe debt instruments that are producing some income uh stocks commodities all of those at 30% then 10% basically dry powder to take of um take advantage of opportunities as they come up opportunistically. Um you don't like long-term bonds uh for the I'm going to guess you know kind of for the foreseeable future. My question on that is and we'll come tie this back to what the Fed you know may do this week is um the Fed is in cutting mode again and there's people out there that that say hey look if the economy is going to slow next year as you think it it likely may Ted um that if it slows too much at some point we're going to get all the intervention the central planning intervention to try to you know rescue things and that that at at that moment that will drive bond yields down that will drive the prices of of bonds up and and the prices of longer duration bonds up even higher. So, you know, that's sort of a short-term opportunity. Um, do you think that that could happen? Do you think that that's not worth uh playing? That's more like trying to catch nickels in front of the steamroller. Um, you know, or is that a real opportunity? Well, I I think you're right on the the short-term rates go down, but I don't think the long-term rates go down. Uh to me, I think people will say, "Hey, I don't trust you, Federal Reserve or Federal Government." >> uh they were going to try to keep this in. Look at it right now. You know, that the tenure stuck on 415, 420. Um, you would have guessed with all the talk and everything we've had about lower rates coming up here, you know, on the decision that you would have seen that change as well, but it never it didn't change. And u it's a worse though on a 30-year bond. You know, if you say, "Okay, I'm going to buy a 30-year bond today and I'm going to say that I'll take four and three quarters for the rest of my life basically for 30 years." >> I think that's a bad move. I mean, um, that's a long time, number one, and number two, uh, you're betting on a government that's basically flat broke, uh, and going to be more broke. So, uh, to me, that's the worst of all situations. >> Okay. Uh, I totally get that logic. Okay. So, um, do you expect, and again, I know viewers will know the answer to this by the time they're watching this, but but at Oxbow, are you guys along there with the market expecting the Fed to cut tomorrow? Well, you know, I I just assume from reading that they would. You know, if you see the people that have come, it's interesting. Jay Pal hasn't said much the last two weeks, but you know, everybody else has been talking. He hasn't said much. And I guess he's just sort of waiting to see how the, you know, how the how the votes check out. But, uh, it looks like that's what's going to happen. I don't think they need to, Adam. But, uh, looks like, you know, if you think about it, we're one of the few countries, us and the Bank of England, that are cutting rates. Heck, everybody else is raising rates. I mean, look overseas. It's we're I don't know what we're doing. You know, we obviously don't have a Fed that's independent, but uh we're we're in a different mode right now. And for them to be in and come in and get aggressive on the downside, it's just all political and it'll end up blowing it up again with inflation eventually. >> And and do you expect the the lack of independence to increase as Pal gets replaced with the president's, you know, latest appointee? >> Well, it sounds like he wants a rubber rubber stamp Federal Reserve, which is not good really. um they need to be able to do what they think is the right thing to do and you know there'll be a bunch of name calling as usual and all that sort of stuff but it's not good uh in the in the long run they need to be look they will look at the two things they're set up to do but I I I I think what's happened is between the Federal Reserve and the federal government the last 25 years 30 years they've gotten so accustomed to saving the stock market and the stock market was the only only thing that keeps the economy going that they're stuck. And so, uh, they're probably going to do whatever they need to do to make things go, which may be lower rates significantly, but the hangover won't be good. That's the point I'm making. >> So, let's talk about that for a moment. So, um, you know, we started this conversation with you talking about how richly valued the markets are >> and, um, something that we've talked about in the past has been sort of the resultant K-shaped economy, right? Which is that the people who have assets have been doing great where the majority that don't have many assets, especially financial ones, are are getting increasingly left behind. And it's that top end of the K that's really doing the lion share of consumer spending these days. So if we do get to a point where there's a substantial market correction, then you have a big negative wealth effect on that top end of the K and then that impacts the economy. To your point, you know, we've gotten to the point where the the stock market tail is now wagging the economy dog. So yes, you expect the central planners to kind of rush in when things are starting to come off the rails and do whatever they can, but but as you said, there's going to be a a hangover process there. How bad do you expect that to get? Well, what happens is, you know, it's I think it'll look more like the Arthur Burns era of the 70s where, you know, he was he would he would lower the rates thinking that, you know, we're going to really get this thing going and then inflation would come back. So had to come back and raise the rates. And so that was sort of an experiment for four or five years. >> Mhm. >> And Burns was horrible as far as he he didn't do the right things. And finally really Vulkar had to come in and clean up his mess. And uh my guess is you'll have some instant, you know, some something happen, I don't know, in the next year or two and and it changes all of that, you know, where they can't um they they can't affect things as much as they used to be able to with just lowering the rates. Um I've had a number of people on talking about sort of the the point you get to at least with monetary policy where you're pushing on a string where kind of no matter what the Fed tries to do monetary policy QE or whatever it it it doesn't you get the loss of diminishing returns where it just does less and less. >> Well, I think too they'll just keep on printing, you know, because we don't have we have nobody in Congress, not either party, no person. You never hear them talk about, you know, we need to slow down spending and maybe look at this or look at that. It's just a spending spree. You know, what have you done? You know, it's all about themselves really >> and we just spend money um and waste a lot of money. And until something happens that'll bring you to your knees like a World War II or a depression or a crash, something that you're not expecting, you know, co something you're not expecting, then they don't then they can't control anymore. And I I wouldn't be surprised if there's not something like that. I I don't know, but there'll be a point where they can't control the outcome as well as they expect. >> Okay. Um, you know, we're talking about some some dark things. Let me let me try to channel the administration for a moment. Um at least Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant um who would say, "Hey Ted, we've been working really hard here in 2025 to pass all the, you know, legislation we need to really start getting this economy goose and strike all the trade deals and start reshoring jobs and bringing trillions of foreign capital in here. and we're deregulating and we're getting all this, you know, 30 plus billion of tariff revenue now every month. Like just have a little bit of faith, man. You know, middle of next year, man, we're going to be firing on a bunch of extra cylinders here. It's going to be great. What do you say to that? >> Well, the first thing I would say is I was talking to Mr. Besset. It's Mr. Besset. How many times have you had faith in the federal government to start with? number one. But number two, uh, you know, I think manufacturing jobs, I may be wrong on this, but I think they've actually declined a little bit this year in the US if I'm not mistaken. I may I think that I think I I think I've read that a couple of times, but the other side of it is they're having they do these things, they get back like this 12 billion dollars they're saying they're giving back to the farmers. Well, they took it from the people that pay the pay the tariffs, you know? I mean the whole thing is see that's crazy that that whole thing and then uh you come down hard on China and then you realize hey China's got the cards we don't and then I've got to go over and be a nicer part. See all of that's just it's just grandstanding and it doesn't work in the long run. I do think this about what uh Scott Besset thinks. I think it's I think deregulation is better. I think they've done that. I think they've done a great job on energy on on the way they're approaching it. uh you know uh they they got a really good energy secretary. I think there's three or four things that they've done that are better you know be better for the economy. Whether it all pans out that way I just don't know. You know we've run so hot on AI that if it slows down then what's left to pick up the you know pick up the slack. I don't know. And that's I'll tell you that's one of the reasons when we're buying companies, we just look at the company, you know, we we don't try to buy the averages or indexes or things like that because that's all macro. But if I can take a company and look at it, I can tell you where we can make some money in that company, I think, over the next five years. >> Okay. So, so fair to say your approach is a bit more of a Buffett type approach where you're just looking for great companies that produce great cash flow, hopefully try to buy them at a good valuation. Totally. I mean, that's that's that's what we do. And and when you're doing that, you you take yourself away from having to determine, you know, what we're going to do on the world market and what's going to happen in the Fed. You're just looking at a value of something. It's a really good value. And you're saying, "Okay, I'm I'm I'm going to own that." Uh for various reasons. I mean, there's some really great buys this year. Uh I don't think the average person bought them, but there's been some really great buys this year. And I think people miss that point. They just keep driving into the indexes and the indexes are controlled by just a few companies. So they never get a chance to really own what I consider to be some really really good businesses. >> Okay. Well, let let's talk about those great businesses that you picked up this year. Um and and the other question I was about to get to, especially since you measured you mentioned energy is one of the areas where you you think the administration's doing well. Um I'm very interested to get your thoughts on the energy sector uh as an investment class because it's been a real disappointing one for many years. Um but there's a lot of talk at least amongst the folks that I interview now that that it it might be starting uh to turn this this this this might be a good time to be investing in and and try to catch its upswing. So answer that however you'd like. Um because I'm going to guess some of the the companies you bought this year might have been in the energy sector, but but you tell me. >> We bought a lot of energy this year, but it's interesting. I know generally people are off on it, but most of our energy investments this year are up for the year. Uh they might not be up 40% or something, but they're up from from where we bought them. And if you look at the energy section to sector to me over the next two or three years will be the best buy you can make right now. Uh because if you look at the dividends in that group I mean there's a lot of them that have seven eight n% dividends and you know we just bought Pro Brazil uh 12% dividend biggest oil company in Brazil. I mean all you all you got to do is get a turn. you you have you have to realize you go much below 55 bucks 56 bucks and they won't be drilling they won't be doing anything. Uh you have to make enough money to do it. So you know it's it's still a de you know a supply demand thing and granted you might be in a situation where for the next five or six months you're just collecting the dividend. But if you look at that total return over the next two or three years you're probably going to do really really well. I mean, we bought a numerous things this year in the energy section. There were dividends anywhere between six and 10. And you know, that's a that's a great that's great cash flow right now for this time we're in. >> Okay. So, I I know that like nuclear plays have done great uh this year. um largely banking on you know a lot of future investment by the country in this space but but you know a lot of the actual cash flows from from that are years and years in the future you know Oaklo is a great example of that you know they they're not going to have a dollar re revenue for many many years but the stock's done fantastic this year >> I assume most of the companies you're talking about that you're buying this year are more in the fossil oil and gas space >> natural gas and and oil. Um I mean I think if if you look at solar for example, the way we've sort of played solar is we own silver, use a lot of silver in solar >> and so um you we kind of go that different direction, >> but generally we're we're we're oil and gas. We own one small company um that's in the service business uh in the in the Mid East. That's a great little company. Uh, National Energy, NESR. Uh, so all of you out there, but it's a small company that makes a lot of money. Just signed a big contract, but that's the only service company we own. The everything else we own is either is is is really oil or gas. And gas has done really well for us this year. Really well. U, but I think it'll do a lot better in the future. And, uh, so that's that's really where we are. We're we're if you look at what we've added the most to would be it would be energy this year. >> Okay. Um I just got to ask since you mentioned it. Um you know I' I've interviewed again folks who invest in the space and a lot of them have been you know pretty bullish on the midstream companies. >> But sounds like you guys only own one. Um why why only one? >> Oh no we own three or four. I I didn't mean to imply that. What I mean is we own the gas producers that are not midstream. They're they're actually producing it. We own Antar for example, Northern Orland Gas. We own Apache or APA, which are the old Apache. But we own and we own if you look at what we own in the in the midstream they're mostly LPS piece but NPLX if you look at energy transfer enterprise products see those are all paid on a K1 but our average yield on them is somewhere around seven and a half% which you can't get today Adam in a in a real estate deal. I mean I I take and they raise it every year >> and so you know they're they've been great. We've owned those for ye many many many years. I'm talking about 20 years now and a lot of them. And so, you know, it's uh that's an area that we uh you know, if you look at Enterprise Products, been on that stock a long long time. It's been a great company. But we own those are the midstreams we own, but they're almost all of those are an LP and they're on a K1, but they own the G we own the straightup gas companies, too. Um and so that and that's why we own when when you look at on the oil we've sort of separated on the oil but um we we own various oil companies you know Matador um like I say on we just bought Petro Brazil and it's it's it's a good group. I mean it's it's a group where you can make some money we think the next five years but you got to stay with it. >> Okay. Well, thanks for clarifying and you know I I I I've been a silver investor forever. Um, but I got quite bullish on silver when we had the price breakout at 35. And I I know you follow me on X. You probably noted where I gave myself silver eyes uh at that point. And then one of my followers added laser beams to the eyes. So, I've had silver laser eyes since 35 and and that's proved out well now that silver is above 60 on the day that we're talking here. Um, but I' I've been saying of late, uh, when I when I retire the silver laser eyes, I might replace them with oil eyes. Um, because of the the potential for this industry to turn and and I think you share that that optimism. Let me ask you this, Ted. Um, your firm is is headquartered in Texas. So, you know, you you know a lot of people in the oil industry. How much of your enthusiasm is because of your approach to valuing companies and just doing the the homework you guys do on the fundamentals versus what you're hearing from people in the oil industry about their sense of its prospects in coming years? >> Well, I think they generally feel good and you we've seen that business shift a lot on the private side. You know, you see a a lot of mineral business, in other words, a lot of royalty overrides, that kind of thing. and they're making, you know, and it's big. Everything's big now. It's not like you can't go drill a vertical well like you used to 30 or 40 years ago. And I hope you get a good well out of it because everything's horizontal. All the horizontal is getting longer and longer, >> right? Well, well, the the easy stuff was extracted a long time ago. We got to go deeper and deeper. Yeah. >> Yeah. But and but but that's kind of where the business has gone to. But I still say this that they they need a price to really expand that. They need a price and it's not like they're not doing anything. But uh in the long run, a higher price is going to really expand that I think to a high degree. And so um in the industry and and and I'm I hope people don't get irritated with him, but the oil industry is not a good industry for sentiment. At the lows, they won't buy anything. >> [laughter] >> the highs I think were going up forever. >> Mhm. >> And so, uh, I used to laugh at a lot of them because I'll tell you a story back in the back when the oil late 80 late 80s it was I guess it was I can't remember exactly the time, but oil was um had gone down it had gone down to about uh $10 a barrel or 11. And I asked this one oil and gas guy. I said, "How long's what do you want if you just go out and buy it?" Because I said, "Well, how long how much does it cost to lift the oil if you just drill the well?" He said, "That's probably about 14.5 $15 a barrel." I said, "Why wouldn't you just buy it then?" And he said, "Because it might go lower." So, if you think about excuse me, if you think about that, it's kind of a it's it's contrary thinking, but that's kind of what the industry does. >> Okay. All right. So don't don't rely too much on the industry sentiment because they oftenimes get it wrong, especially at the at the edges. >> Um, so a couple quick things. Um, so I think you already said this, but I just want to really make sure folks listening understand it. Given your your optimism, I don't think it would surprise you if the oil price continued to drop for some material period of time here, you know, say into the middle of next year. um you're not calling the bottom in oil here. Um you're just saying you you you like the longer term prospects of this space and uh and even with a declining oil price, as you said, a lot of these companies you own are going to be paying you nice dividends and then if and when the industry does turn, you'll get the best of both worlds where you'll get those dividends and a rising share price. >> Yeah. Well, it's true because you know at the top oil was 30% of the S&P and I I don't know what it's three and a half% now. Yeah, it's like low single digits now. Yeah. >> Yeah. So, what happens is, yes, it could go lower, but we would just add to holdings if it did because we would be then be getting more cash flow. Um, and in the end, that's what all investing is about is cash flow, no matter what kind of investing you're doing. But, but yeah, it could get weaker. It could get a little weaker. I I I wouldn't see it past 50 55, though. I I think you get down to that level, I think people just they just stop. Well, I I'm selfishly I'm kind of hoping it weakens from here just because I want to be able to dollar cost average in at at lower prices in the near term. Um I I'll also say too um you know a lot of the com the natural resource experts that I interview Rick Rule you know being very notable amongst them [snorts] you know Rick says look uh if you look at the growth of of world demand for oil and gas um it's it's just a everinccreasing line right in other words even though we've been investing in alternatives and we're excited about nuclear it's not placing a event in the in the world's demand for these fossil fuels. And he said uh in spite of that, we have actually been decreasing our capital expenditures in recent decades in terms of exploration and development. And [snorts] he said, look, even if demand were just a flatline from here, not even grow, he says, uh we're going to have some shortages in the not too distant future. Um, I don't think you necessarily need to buy into that uh that theory to to to to want to invest in oil and gas right now, but certainly if Rick's true, uh, if that proves to be true, that'll only add some pretty substantial tailwinds to the sector. Correct. >> Yeah. And I Adam, you know, there's so many places in the world that the only energy they have is combustible energy. Mhm. >> Uh we forget about that in the US that you know there's so many places in the world that that that's the only kind of energy they have. They don't have any other kind. And uh yeah, it' be nice to have electric, but they don't even know what what electric is in many cases. >> I was going to say, I mean, there's there's still, you know, well over a billion people, maybe more, who don't have electricity or drinking water. >> So you Yeah, you're you're right about that. I I I just think, you know, you you don't want to put the whole portfolio on energy, but you know, it's just one of those things we think is is undervalued right now. >> Okay. Um, anything else that's on your, you know, opportunity set of, hey, this is something that we particularly like right now that we haven't talked about yet. >> Well, we have two different sets. You know, we talk about that 30 3010 that 30 that's in stocks is in a different look. You know, if you and we've been buying companies, just a few names that we bought, for example, in the last couple of months that you wouldn't probably think about are like Domino's, Gilden, if you're on the t-shirt company that makes a lot of active wear, you know, uh, Marcato Libre, which is going on the Amazon down your >> Oh my goodness. Sorry to interject. That that company was founded by one of my business school classmates who I believe is a billionaire now. >> Well, probably probably is. Uh but you know Autodesk um Bristol Myers and those are in the stock side you know um on the on the on the on the high income portfolios we run now they that's where we have a lot more a lot more energy but also we have uh a lot of different other things we own Val which is a Brazilian mining company a lot of iron ore other other ores uh Rio Tinto another these are all foreign companies but they do great you know um a great little fertiliz um LP that we own is is really is is C is CBR and uh but he's like a 12% cash flow. >> Wow. >> And that's a nice nice little LP but they're different things uh we own over there a lot of fertilizer we own uh you know in copper we own different that's where we have a lot of the a lot of the commodities in that portfolio. >> Okay. And uh and in terms of portfolios at Oxbow, um I'm painting with a very broad brush here, but as I as I recall, you kind of have three main portfolios that you you're focused on. Um one is the growth portfolio, if we'll say, which is largely the equities that you were just talking about, and then you have two income portfolios, correct? One more conservative and then one more high income, >> right? The conservative portfolio is just for people that don't want to lose any money. Uh and so it you know and there you you might not think this but there's people out there like that or they want a certain percentage like that. So they'll have more than one portfolio. The high income portfolio though is aggressive. I mean we own things that pay a lot of cash flow, a lot of dividends, a lot of interest and it's widpread. It's sort of worldwide. We can own we own a lot of different things in there, but they create a lot of cash flow and it's had a uh that's where we own a lot of the gold miners, gold, silver, silver miners. All of that's in that high income account and um it's had a really good year this year. We we've but we're running in that portfolio as good a year as it's had. We have about 50 55% still in short-term treasuries. Wow. So, even even with that drag of just short-term treasuries, it's you're still having one of your best years. >> One of the best. Yeah. Our best years are always off market lows. That's where we have our best years. But that's just because we have liquidity. We're not brainchilds or anything, but we have liquidity. So, you can put liquidity in the market at the lows and that's where you're going to get really, really big returns for a year or two. >> Yeah. and and your growth portfolio, the one that's much more just in equities. I recall the last time we talked that was pretty helpfully uh in T bills too. In other words, you weren't fully invested in that portfolio. Where where are you now? >> It's about um 38 40%. Uh probably at 40 uh and it's only running on a risk adjusted basis. I mean, it's only running it's not running that far behind the S&P, but you have to think about it. uh it's a more conservative portfolio if I can if I can have a really good return but not have it all on the market. And so that's that's really where we come from on that portfolio. >> Okay. So um uh folks just full transparency um you know I am a client at Oxbow which is one of the reasons why I kind of know how the well how the firm is structured there. And um uh some of the things that I appreciate um is the fact that a the firm manages these three different portfolios. So you know you can you can sample from all of them, right? You can say okay look I want some of my money managed super conservatively. I want some of it to be getting income and I want some of it to be striving for growth. So you have the ability there to kind of custom build your allocation. But um I also like the fact and this is me personally, you know, you don't have to your outlook it probably shouldn't match mine. Um but I like the fact that um even while they're striving to get the best returns they can, they are cognizant of the the high degree of valuations in the markets. And so they have these cash reserves in the portfolios so that if and when there is a a bare market, they've got the dry powder to then really lean in. And as Ted has said, the firm's best uh years historically have been the ones coming out of a bare market where you know you kind of have the blood on the streets and it's the people who have capital to deploy when you've got those really cheap valuations are the ones who then really ride the recovery in the markets from then. So anyways, Ted, uh just just underscoring why I'm a a pleased customer. >> Well, thank you. [laughter] >> All right. >> I uh I we everybody's the same. I mean, we don't really, you know, all our portfolios are alike. If you choose one of them, you know, you're going to look like everybody else. Um, and it just depends on on what you what you want, you know, how you want to look at things. Everybody's different. We understand that. Uh, and generally, I think people today probably ought to take a look and say, you know, how exposed do I want to be to the overall market? And and we're seeing I mentioned this before to you, but we're seeing more and more older people 75 plus 80 that have a lot of their money. I'm talking about 85 or 90% of their liquid assets that are in the stock market. And I just don't think they're thinking about the big picture when you're that age. Uh you know, and have that much exposed. But but uh again, life's been good to them. So they you can't sometimes you can't make a case for them. >> Well, it's it's sort of confirmation bias, right? You you get used to the way things have been and then you say, "Well, of course they're always going to be this way." And this is what I think is the potentially nefarious >> trap of what you were talking about earlier, which is we're kind of a generation since the last market bare market. Um, and so people have kind of just acclimated and said, you know what, I I don't think the markets are as risky as they were, even the ones who should know best, right? The older investors. um they've kind of they kind of just think things things have been different. Of course, every year the market goes up double digits, it reinforces that bias and as I said earlier, we've had three great backto-back years, right? So, um let me ask you this. Um there you so obviously if you are near retirement or in retirement, you know, I think you would say Ted, um hey, be cautious. Don't be all in stocks the way that some of these people that you're seeing, you know, seem to be, right? So, one, just just just be careful. But, you know, for for someone say my age, you know, who's in their 50s, um I I've definitely been more conservative than the average than the average investor. And I've seen people who, in my opinion, who have been more reckless than me do better than me because they're all in the Nvidas of the world or the meme stocks or whatever, right? And um they're they're playing the game as it's, you know, is is working right now. I mean, I can't really fault them. They're they're they're getting rewarded for playing the game that's that's delivering a winning hand. It's just to me too risky, right? >> Yeah. >> And I talked about that K-shaped economy earlier where the the the bottom, you know, half is is seeing the top half get further and further away from them. Um, might there be an opportunity here if we get the kind of corrective event that you think might happen where there may be the potential for people who are kind of paying attention and being prudent to kind of change their station here positively to kind of almost slingshot into the higher echelon, which is avoid getting big losses if and when, you know, the trades that have been doing so well stop working and then maybe go into reverse maybe pretty substantially. and then also have that dry capital to then put into play when they're really good valuations to then ride what comes next. So you might be able to take yourself from kind of a middle of the pack player here to a front of the pack player if you play your cards right. >> Well, no question about that. I mean, you have when you get I think the hardest thing for an average investor though, Adam, is determining when are the c when is it cheap? Okay. You know, it comes off 15% think, "Oh gosh, I ought to make a good buy." But it's like uh like it was like for us in 2008, the market went from the Dow went from 14,700 to 8,800. Big sell-off by the time we got to October and then uh believe it or not, and we put some money in it. We ended up being great to put it in then, but we kept a lot of money back. And by the time you got to [clears throat] March, the first week in March of '09, we went down another 25%. we went to 6,600. [clears throat] >> And those are the points I'm talking about with people. I don't think the average investor is real good in knowing how to scale in and out. >> Um they're like all or nothing. And that's really that's a that's a tough way to run the business. You have to know when to scale in and scale out. Um if you have a huge winner that's gone up 15 times, 20 times, you know, sell some of it. take your cost out, take some profit out. You never know what the future's going to hold. Um, in the same way on the downside, you buy a little bit, goes lower, go, you buy some more. Uh, but you're looking at a longer period of time. And I think the average investor, it just doesn't know much about scaling. Well, this is one of the reasons why I recommend so strongly that most people work with a professional financial adviser because one, it sort of takes the emotional decision-m out of your hands and then you're also leveraging the expertise and the experience uh and the level head of the professional. Um, I also imagine if we do get this big corrective event in the markets, you know, from what you've told me in the past, Ted, when it's the right time to buy, it's going to feel terrible to do so, right? This is when nobody wants to touch a stock and it feels like you're just throwing good money after bad and all that stuff. So you you really have to have some sort of either framework or guide who is going to start guiding you on the scaling in then. >> Yeah. For us we just you know we look at the c the single company you know and it may be it may be so cheap it's incredible. Not that it couldn't get cheaper, but if I could make a case to somebody, if you own this whole company, the whole and it's real cheap now and you own the whole company, you would buy this whole thing and just own it as your company because it will do that well over the next 10 or 15 or 20 years. And that's how you have to look at it on the lows. You have to decide, would I buy the whole company uh to really get aggressive? And that's really sort of the way we look at it. And it's the same way on the highs. We get stocks that are so expensive. Would we would we ever even think about owning this whole company? No. And so then you sell some. So it's, you know, it's on both ends really. >> Okay. Um well, Ted, Luck, this has been uh as usual a fantastic discussion. We're coming up in the hour here. Uh I do want to spend a few minutes talking about the free webinar that your firm is offering next week uh on succession. So um I mean we're going to get into the the the weeds of it in in the webinar itself, but can you just talk for a minute or two um about [clears throat] the importance of it? I mean you again have spent a long career advising people your your firm specializes in high net worth clients especially entrepreneurs who have you know had a nice liquidity event after selling their life's work. um you've seen firsthand you know the the person who has worked so hard to build the family wealth uh but but then need to say look I I I'm not going to be around forever. So how do I make sure that all this uh gets managed the way I want it to if I'm not around anymore. Um and I'm sure you've seen the good and the bad. You know people who have planned well versus people who haven't planned well. So why is this such an important topic? Well, I think the biggest thing with it is uh you don't know what your future holds. And so from an age standpoint, they're going to be things that you didn't expect. We get this every year. We get a few of these where one spouse or the other did all the investing, but all of a sudden they have Parkinson or a stroke or they're an im what they can't do it anymore. And then the spouse that's remaining uh really has no idea now they don't even know who to trust. That's another see I mean so they're really you have to spend a lot of time a lot of time with them just so they understand hey you can trust us to do the right thing. But see that should have already been in place. You didn't have I mean you know we're not trying to take the car keys away from you. All right. I mean, well, my point is, you don't have to do the whole thing, but you need you need somewhere along the way to have a relationship with people so that uh and you may just get to the point, we've had people do this, is say, "I'm tired of it. I don't want to look at it every day. I want to I want to enjoy life. I want to travel, spend time, my grandkids." Yeah. And I and I'll tell you something else and I'll mention this before but but uh now when you call you know we have a lot of custodians and I don't talk to them myself but I know what goes on and if you call you know the the the fidelities and swads and the vanguards of the world all of all the big custodians and you get somebody on the phone about you know a lot of them are just lost so they lose you too you know I mean what I'm what I mean is you don't know what you you're trying to get something done, but you don't have the capability to do it. And that's when you got to start thinking about, okay, I could use somebody to really help me here a little bit. And you, again, you don't have to give them the whole thing. I understand it's there's an ego thing in there. Um, but uh but it's certainly something to something to think about. >> Yeah, there's an ego thing of not wanting to give over the reigns. There's also sort of a you know, humans don't like to think about their own mortality. So, it's one of these things, I don't want to think about it now. Maybe we'll do it later. And then, of course, potentially it becomes too late. Um, and I think this is such an important topic for this audience here at Thoughtful Money because I know from the surveys I do to this viewing audience that like 75% 80% of these viewers consider themselves DIY investors, right? So, they're doing it on their own, >> right? So, you know, that's great. Um, but, you know, at some point you're not going to be able to continue to do it. And so to to Ted's point there, you don't have to give over the reigns today, but just like having a will and a trust uh is is a prudent thing to do and an act of love to do in advance for your your loved ones, figuring out who the baton is going to go to before you actually have to give it up is prudent and in a similar act of love. And if it's somebody in your family, fantastic. And if they need a couple years of grooming time of you educating them and getting them up to speed, fine, great. just start that process now. But if it's not, and there are a lot of people I talk to who they say, "No, there's, you know, my my my spouse certainly doesn't want to, my kids aren't interested, um, or I just don't think they have the experience. I don't trust them enough to to to get good enough at this." Then at least right now, work on identifying who your successor will be. And if it's a firm, doesn't have to be a firm like like Well, it doesn't have to be Oxbow, but I would say make it a firm as good if not better. if you can find a better one. I think that's a tall order, but if you can, great. That's fantastic. Um, and and get that in place. And hopefully you don't need to pass that baton for, you know, many years, decades hopefully. But, you know, just in case things happen faster than you think, at least you've got that plan B already set up. So, uh, if you are interested in in attending this this, I think very important conversation with Ted and the Oxbow team, again, just go to thoughtfulmoney.com/succession and you can sign up for free. And again, the um the actual event itself uh will be uh this coming Monday, the December 15th at 7 p.m. ET. And if you are watching this video after the uh the webinar takes place, uh just go to that same URL and it'll redirect you to the replay video. Uh Ted, um as we start to wrap up here, um uh I guess last main question for you, is there anything else that's burning brightly on your radar about the markets, the economy, whatever? Uh what you're hearing from clients that I just haven't been intelligent enough to think to ask you? >> No, not really. I mean I I I again I I think uh that compl that complacency meter is is really really high with I mean it's people are very complacent right now and they just don't they're not worried about it and that goes back that do this yourself things have been good so long that why would you ever use anybody else you know so it all goes together when you when you go a long period of time and nothing bad happens then that's sort of what you end up with and but I think people need to really stop and think about history here. Go read a few books and you'll change your mind. >> All right. Well, very well said. Well, folks, uh, two things. Um, please show your appreciation for Ted coming on and giving us so much of his time and expertise uh, by hitting the like button and then clicking on the subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next to it. And uh you hear me say at the end of every one of these videos uh that if you want some professional help uh and you don't already have a good uh professional financial adviser who is advising you uh that you should talk to one of the ones that this uh channel endorses. I highly recommend that. Uh but if you want to talk to Ted directly and his firm there at Oxbow Advisors there's a form to do that. Just go to thoughtfulmoney.com/oxpo fill out the very short form there and the team at Oxbow will be in touch with you right away. I should manage expectations though, Ted, your firm uh does have some minimums because you tend to deal with higher net worth clients. Um what what what minimum should we tell folks you you've got here? >> Well, you know, you know, and it's not that we wouldn't people that don't have the minimum. We always keep them on an email list and try to help them as much as we can. We're just not going to be able to manage for them. But you know, you're looking at, you know, typically, you know, typically out of state, we need four to five million dollars to manage that to manage that account. Instate not quite as much, but um but our average account size is going to be that size or higher. Uh and um you know, we manage a lot of money that's higher than that as well. But you we usually have four or five people on an account. So it's not that we're we're arrogant or anything like that. It's just that you have you, you know, you have to look at the economics of it all and that's where that comes from. >> Okay. All right. Well, look, and when you say instate, you mean taxes, correct? >> Yeah. >> Okay. Great. So, folks, anyways, if if if you meet the criteria or you just like to talk to the team there at Oxbow, again, go to thoughtfulmoney.com. Uh if if you don't have enough to meet their minimum, but you'd still like to talk to one of uh Thoughtful Money's endorsed uh financial uh financial advisors, you can fill out the general form at just thoughtfulmoney.com and you'll be connected with one of the other adviserss there. Uh Ted, thanks so much. Again, folks, hopefully we see you at the um free webinar next week. And again, folks, to sign up for that again is thoughtfulmoney.com/succession. Ted, I can't thank you enough. Um you're such a gentleman. Thanks a lot, Adam. Good to visit with you again. >> All right, you too, my friend. Hope to see you in person at some point in 2026. Everybody else, thanks so much for watching.