Stocks Up, Economy Down — The Cucumbers vs. Grapes Effect – Peak Prosperity

Summary

• Market Euphoria: Hosts warn of a late-cycle bubble with extreme valuations, record margin debt, and futures-driven rallies despite weakening breadth and economic signals.
• Consumer Strain: SNAP disruptions and rising costs are pressuring households, hurting staples demand and shifting buyers toward store brands while restaurants see cutbacks.
• AI: Discussion highlights a debt-fueled AI boom, potential government-driven spending, and concentration risk in tech leadership despite broader economic softness.
• Financial System Risks: Falling bank reserves, high leverage, and options-market dynamics raise fragility concerns; potential path includes short-term disinflation followed by renewed easing/printing.
• Private Credit/Equity: The BLK private credit fraud case and concerns over PE products marketed to retail, plus CMBS/CRE stress, signal late-cycle complacency and rising default risks.
• Commercial Real Estate: CMBS losses hitting AAA tranches and ratings lag highlight mounting CRE stress beneath headline indexes.
• Key Companies: CMG flagged for an earnings miss, high valuation, and consumer trade-down; BLK cited for due-diligence lapses and “too-big-to-fail” moral hazard.
• Risk Management: Emphasis on active oversight, tighter exits, and liquidity buffers; gold discussed as a debasement hedge but with near-term volatility.

Transcript

Nothing in this program should be considered investment advice. It is for educational purposes only. Please hit pause and read this disclaimer in full. We're at the point [music] where this generation does not remember the lessons of the past and unfortunately [music] there's going to be a lot of pain to bring about uh those lessons for the next generation as well before this is over. Hello everybody and welcome to this episode of Finance Hugh. I am your host Chris Martinson. I'm back here with Paul Ker of Kiker Wealth Management. And Paul, I see you have the history of bubbles back over your head. Uh oh. Uh >> we're going to have to talk about that. >> Absolutely. I'll move to the side so the listeners can see it, but I I had to keep that up this week. I just I just had to. I've got to give me a couple more. But >> yeah. Now, why is that? What what's going on this week that's got you putting that back up? >> Well, just the absurdity of of all, you know, just retail euphoria market, you know, just the massive amount of retail leverage that's that's being taken on right now. The market doesn't seem to care about anything. Government shutdown, you name it, doesn't matter. So, it it's just indicative of all the historical bubbles that I've studied in the past. and and you know the hard part is right now it's like what am I missing? Okay? Because everything from all of those bubbles in the past, investor psychology, Wall Street euphoria, the belief, whether it's stated or not, that it's different this time, because you know, sometime sometimes we learn from the past and you might think it and you behave like it's different this time, but you'll never say it out loud because you you don't want to be the person that gets recorded in the history books like those individuals in 1929. But all of the behavior fits that part of the cycle. >> And they're hard to navigate. They're stressful. They're stressful for those who are seeking wisdom. And all I can think of this week is with much wisdom comes much sorrow. The Bible tells us that. And um you know, there's a lot of investors that are just simple. You know, there's there's the scoffers. They know how bad it is and and they're they're too big to fail. They could care less if things come apart because they want the government to fail them out. That's the scoffer from a pro proverb standpoint. Then there's the fool. The person that just doesn't care to know. And then there's the simple. And the simple are the ones that I'm worried about. They just don't know. They don't know where to get the information. And there's nobody out there that's warning them about the environment that they're in. So they're just looking around doing what everybody else seems to be doing because they they feel more comfortable in the herd. But right now, I'm not saying you sell everything and run for cover. I mean, you have to play the game by the rules that are forced upon you. Um, but if you don't have a strategy at this point mathematically that that helps you learn how to to to lower that risk, when to lower that risk, you're [clears throat] better off to to take some cards off the table right now and and be cautious. >> Well, I'm a little worried, Paul, that that you know, we've heard this so-called the K-shaped economy, right? And so, what does that mean? It means that there's two lines coming off that upright stock on a K. One line goes up, one goes down. So, I think we're in that K-shaped economy now, meaning that people who have financial assets, you know, M2 is expanding. We'll get to the data. Like all this, there's all this liquidity. The Fed's going to cut the federal government's deficit spending. Like, we're in a war. And there are people who benefit from that. That's the upward line. And then everybody else is on that downward line. And they're not even lines. It's not 50/50. It's like the top 10% and the bottom 90%. We'll get to that today as well. I there's a lot of data right now, Paul, saying that the bottom 90% is struggling, probably in a recession. And you mentioned something else, too, which is we're in that government shutdown. And I I don't want to be dismissive. I know there people who work for the government, and this is hard and and they're without paychecks. I don't want to minimize that, but I haven't really noticed anything um from my end. You know, it's almost like nothing bad happened at all. Um, except the park rangers in Yeusede were were outraged because they weren't on the job that people were enjoying the park without permits. So, [laughter] we've gotten to that level of anarchy. People are actually enjoying the outdoors without permission. It's driving some people nuts. [laughter] >> Well, out there, I'm surprised they won't uh uh leave their post, go work for free, tackle them, and try to throw them in jail. It seems to be. But yeah, >> nice that they actually paid for it with taxpayer money and then they actually get to go enjoy it without paying another tax. So, hey, that's nice. >> That is good. But let's talk about the thing that's kind of looming here. I titled this one snap, crackle, pop. We've been talking about the creaking popping sounds before, but um something else going on here, snap being that food assistance. They say these are going to Looking at the date we're recording this on the 31st here. Uh happy Halloween um of October. They they run out tomorrow. And yeah, 42 million Americans, that's one in eight. I was a little I you know what, Paul, I was not I I guess I wasn't paying attention. I did not realize that one in eight people in this country that we know of. Uh you know, because I think there's some illegals on there who maybe aren't getting counted properly. >> Um one in eight people are are going to the store and getting some food assistance. I don't mind the food assistance. Obviously, we all need some help from time to time and that's that's a charitable thing could be. >> But when it turns into It's one thing, Paul, if somebody stumbles on the dance floor and you help them regain their balance, >> but if you find yourself dragging them around the dance floor for the whole the rest of the evening, I think you can say something's gone wrong in that story. Right. >> Right. >> So, we found out I found out that there have been people who've been on this generationally, >> right? You know, on food assistance, which is I think just Yeah. doesn't feel right. something's gone wrong with that program uh when it gets to that level. >> No, it doesn't feel right at all. And what frustrates me is is I'm, you know, hope I would assume everybody has seen some of the posts that are out there. If you haven't, they're all over the place. These are fully able-bodied people that are complaining about the fact that they'll have to go to work. And a lot of them are saying they're not going to go to work. They're just going to steal from the grocery store. They're going to steal in the parking lot. Now, here's what's interesting. So, I've been telling my wife like, "Hey, just just be careful. Maybe I need to go do the shopping for you." And we're we're the area I'm in is just unbelievably fortunate because we just don't have that much crime. But there was an individual in one of the local communities that was taking his buggy and loading the groceries into his car. Somebody snatches all the groceries out of his buggy uh two days ago and then sprints across the parking lot to get in the car and take off. Okay. Okay. So, if that's the person that we're supporting with with the SNAP benefits, then we've got a major problem in this country because it's to help those that seriously cannot work. It's not there to support people that are just too lazy to work. That's not fair to those of us that are sacrificing large portions of our hard-earned income uh for taxes to benefit, you know, one political party and the corporations that have monopolistic like footprints across the country. Well, th this could get a little bit spicy. We'll see what happens. So, you know, we'll see if there's any sort of like um unpleasantness around it. But for sure this is going now we're going to this is going to be because it's not insignificant. I think it's like 30 40 billion a year. So that's several billion a month that's flowing into food and um distributors and uh sellers where Walmart um you know food stores and and by the way I don't know if you saw this but so I had to go find out if this was true. This is actually on the USDA's website this morning. Um, I thought this was kind of a spicy announcement. Uh, they said Senate Democrats have now voted 12 times not to fund the food stamp program, also known as SNAP. Bottom line, the well has run dry. At this time, there will be no benefits issued on November 1st. We are approaching an inflection point for Senate Democrats. They can continue to hold out for healthc care for illegal aliens and gender mutilation procedures. Whoa. Or reopen the government so mothers, babies, and the most vulnerable among us can receive critical nutrition assistance. end quote. I'm not used to the USDA being quite that pointed. [laughter] >> That's a pretty powerful statement. Wow. >> Yeah. So, so at any rate, it feels to me like the battle lines are drawn. This isn't just your normal left versus right little bit of political jockeying. Seems like both sides are kind of dug in. I'm not sure they're going to resolve this quickly and that's going to really start to dry up um a lot of liquidity that's been going out into the economy. I think we're going to start I think we're through the fat. This is now down to the muscle as they say. >> Yes. And that has to have an impact at some point. I mean it it has to impact your I would assume that it's going to impact your Walmart earnings because of some of the data I've heard there and and and then where that trickles through the rest of the economy. Well, I was shocked to see this, which was um you know, they're they're parsing through this everywhere. And in California, ABC News said, "Oh, CalFresh recipients, which is um California residents on food assistance." Look at this, Paul. Up to there's counties, whole counties where you're over one out of four people is on food assistance. >> That's basic. Isn't that the lowest you can be is about 4.6% in some of the wealthier counties here. Um but yeah, in the poorer counties, one in four people and and I will I will just point out a lot of people like, "Oh, you know, Chris, that you know, helping people get food they the food they need is important." But I think the other thing that I found out, Paul, so I toured around. I said, "How how far off the rails has this really gone?" And I think maybe Snap's gone off the rails when you can buy Cisanian cavar, Russian caviar, um which is SNAP EBT eligible. at Whole Foods. >> That's ridiculous. I mean, that that's ridiculous, >> right? I mean, I'm offended by that. I'm laughing, but pretty clearly it's gone off the off the rails here. So, maybe there's some savings to be had here. >> Absolutely. [snorts] You know, and I'm all for it. Like, we have a local uh ministry that supports families in need, back to school programs. I mean, I'm all for supporting and ha have will and will continue to support those programs, but they have relationships with the people and you have to meet certain criteria to know that you actually qualify for it. It's not just for everybody, right? >> Because the problem that we have is a lot of these individuals could make sacrifices in other areas of their lives to go to work to maybe, you know, be a little more discerning about how they they spend their funds. And there's in no way should should should should a SNAP benefit program be supporting that type of food lifestyle, right? It's there to help people meet their minimum needs when they hit times of trouble, >> unemployment for a period of time for them to get off their feet and move back forward. But, you know, look, I mean, I if you're a big corporation and you're a party that wants to have people completely enslaved to you so that you can get their votes from this point forward, >> um, then yeah, you're going to push these programs because you want them to be you need them to need you. You need them to need you in power so that you can just continue to give them things. [clears throat] And we're at a point in this country where what are the boundaries of the politicians, right? At what point do they care about what's happening to the people? At what point do they care about pursuing the path of wisdom? You know, like Thomas Massiey's talked about, hey, let's just do one bill at a time. Let's get through this. Let's just do one issue at a time and let's solve that and then let's move to the next. >> Yep. >> Why does that make sense to the average person? But for some reason, when you get into the halls of power, you know, logic just disappears. I don't know. I don't know. But it's it's about to bite and we're going to find that out. Paul, we're going to take a quick break. When we come back, I want to talk about uh these recession indicators that are now piling up. Markets [music] are facing heightened uncertainty and thoughtful portfolio management has never been [music] more important. If your current strategy relies solely on passive investing or diversification without active oversight, it may be time to consider a different approach. At Peak Financial [music] Investing, we connect you with experienced wealth managers who actively manage portfolios using disciplined, [music] research-driven strategies designed to adapt to evolving market conditions. Our focus is on helping [music] clients navigate volatility with clarity and confidence. While no investment strategy [music] can guarantee results or eliminate risk, we believe that preparation and active [music] management can make a meaningful difference over time. Visit peakfinaniallinvesting.com [music] to schedule a complimentary consultation and explore whether our approach aligns with your goals. I'm Dr. Chris Martinson and I am proud [music] to support Peak Financial Investing. This is not a guarantee of future performance, but [music] a call to take your financial planning seriously. Again, that's peak financial.com. [music] Investing, of course, involves risk, including the potential loss of principle. Past performance is not indicative of future results. [music] Please consult with a qualified adviser before making investment decisions. All right, welcome back everybody. I do want to turn now Paul we got to talk about this because we were just talking about the SNAP benefits and and how families are struggling but also maybe maybe the program had gone a little off the rails and that it's a political football meaning that kind of looks like a vote buying operation or a dependency program that makes people dependent on a political party so that then they get votes or something. It's starting to feel like that. Um, so we've talked about this before, but consumers, again, I hate that term for me or you, consumers living paycheck to paycheck, and this gets us up through June of 2025. So live paycheck to paycheck is 67, two out of three, two out of three families of which live paycheck to paycheck without real difficulty paying bills, but but you know, maybe they're one disaster away. 43% of that 67 is um I think we had these two numbers so it's not 43 of 67 but 43% of households are like yeah we live paycheck to paycheck and then 24% of households are like yeah we live paycheck to paycheck but we have real difficulty paying bills so they are even closer to the edge. So, so that's one out of four families is uh have just a single slip up away from complete household budget disaster. And twothirds of families report that money just comes in the door and goes out the door. >> So that's not the American dream that we should have. And quite frankly, every bit of this stems from the fact that two things took place in the '90s. globalization were for corporate profits. They shipped all of our manufacturing capability overseas. They turned us into a financialized economy. >> So those at the top that are closer to the printing presses of the Federal Reserve uh have been rewarded at the expense of everyone else. >> And and and look, I had a conversation, let's just go back to housing and rental, okay? So I had a conversation with a friend of mine not too long ago just talking about responsibility. So at at what point do we have a responsibility to be prudent investors or are we greedy investors? Okay. So this individual was using the credit that they had to go buy homes for 60 to $70,000. This is you know this was 2018 2019 and then turn around and set their rent at at 134 $1,500 a month. Okay. So that person has the ability to go buy this. So, especially if it's a foreclosure, an individual for sale, you're looking at quick closing with the individual who has the resources to go buy this versus the in individual who may or may not get approved on that loan. So, they sell, you know, you're going to go with the one that has the greatest probability of selling. I get it from a seller standpoint, but at the same time, if if if we had some limits, and I'm for a free market, okay? I'm for a free market, so I don't know how to deal with this. But if you had the opportunity for a first-time home buyer to purchase a house for 60,000, even if they have to put 20,000 into it to refinance, that's helping our young versus somebody who has the capability to go buy 10, 15, 20 houses because they lever themselves up to the hilt and they have the assets of collateral to back it up and then they turn around and rent it out for what a 225 $250,000 house would be. That's just further benefiting the top 10% at the expense of everyone else. And I think if we had have gone through normal recessions, if the Fed had just let normal economic cycles take place, then we wouldn't be in this circumstance. I I I really don't believe that we would be because you would have that destruction that takes place in the economy. And and a lot of times it's your it's your individuals who are desperate or the most greedy or for whatever reason that are living right on that edge with their debt and they're taking away opportunity from those who are choosing to live a little bit more prudent or aren't quite in a position to leverage themselves that much. So, I really think that if we had a nasty that if the Fed would stop just trying to bail out the top 10% rewarding all of this leverage that the economy would reset itself and opportunity would come back for the others. I mean, you look at the statistics in the 1950s after the Great Depression, and I can't remember them because I didn't think that specifically, but you know, we were in this circumstance right here where the top 10% essentially, it was more the top 5% essentially owned everything in 1929. After the Great Depression, by the time we got in the 50s, about 90% of the wealth, if I remember correctly, hopefully I'm at least pretty close to the actual numbers, uh 50% of the population own 90% of the wealth. And then, you know, we look back, those were really good times where the average individual could live a middle class class lifestyle and have some quality of life instead of just being pushed and pushed and pushed and pushed to try to make ends meet. And they're completely exhausted, which takes away their ability to focus on their families and and have a quality of life. And I think a lot of this, you know, by the Fed and and just agreed at the top is is has just demolished the middle class and the American dream. >> Well, it has. And you know, this is we we have some myths in this country, Paul. One of them is that we live in a capitalist society. And that's the great debate, Marxism, communism versus capitalism. We don't have capitalism. The Federal Reserve is as socialist an organization as you could possibly imagine. They have they're unelected. They sit around, they decide how much money is going to cost, right? They decide where they're going to sort of apply bank regulations or not. And guess what? They've been I call them a reverse Robin Hood organization. They make everybody experience inflation. So, a very few at the top can do really, really well through financialization. Not because these people are harder, better workers, not because they've made a better factory, not because they've improved the lives of lots of people, but because they have their fingers in the in the pie first, right? And and that's who the Fed is. So, I think people should understand that and and the consequence of running that program for too long is you start seeing people like Mami in New York City come ahead and possibly looks like he's in the lead, possibly gets elected. And that's a response. And the tagline, which you saw these thousands of cheering people say, tax the rich. I get it. I get it. The the rich often are people who didn't really work all that hard for it. There are people who just use money to make money. It's called financialization. >> And it breeds that resentment. >> But taxing the rich doesn't fix that. It just >> breaks the s. We have to go back to the money. So, you know, Larry uh Leard and I had a conversation. He says, "Fix the money. Fix the world." I We have a broken money system. administered by people >> who continue to break it. And here's how bad it here's how bad they broke it this time. >> Cobasy letter saying Fanny May reported that if we want affordable homes again, which you should, every country should want affordable homes because that's the stability of your country is having people forming households. I don't know how this escapes people like, you know, attention. But at any rate, either house prices have to crash by 38%. Or incomes have to go up by 60%. or mortgage rates must crash by 415 basis points. I guess the 10-year goes negative under that circumstance. Um so, so how did you know he asked the question how did we end up here? Easy. The Federal Reserve drove us here on purpose and that's what they've done. So, I think that's just worth noting. Well, and and and one thing that I want to point out, the knock-on effects from that. If we go back to those numbers, what what was I didn't commit it to complete memory, but um incomes would have to rise 60%. >> Okay. Is that going to happen with AI? >> Uh the hype behind AI with what they say that it's going to do and all the layoffs we've seen recently. >> No, it's not. But but let's say that that okay, the AI bubble's wrong. Market's done. But let's say incomes do go up by 60%. Okay, you know what that's going to do? That's going to wipe out these record corporate profits which are at record valuations. So then you're going to have the market go down 50 to 60 to 70% on the other side of that too. So we're at a point where where it'll be a miracle if nothing breaks and if something does break that the the top 10% are going to suffer a lot more than what they anticipate. But there are going to be that 1 or 2% that are up there that are that are looking at the big picture and they're selling to the retail so that they can put themselves in a position to go back and buy the same assets that they sold to retail for 50 cents on the dollar. That's what they've done throughout history. Well, it it it's very clear those who had assets, by which we mean mostly stocks, some bonds, and now we can also understand that maybe um gold or Bitcoin could sort of have a a role in that as well. Um when you get into these these money printing misadventures, history's complete about this. Those who have assets can do actually do fine. Those who don't have the assets, you're renting, you couldn't get the house thing started. I mean, I don't I if you've seen the horror stories where people are saying because of this government shutdown and they they're not extending some I don't even understand how it works, but but the ACA credits that people are seeing 100, 200, 300, 400% increases in their health insurance premiums, right? Which is completely unaffordable. I don't that's broken. How did we get here? Right? How did auto insurance, how did house insurance, how did property taxes, all of these things have sort of come together at this moment. And I just don't think we have the leadership in place to really talk about it or do something. Not at not at the Fed. Powell won't touch that with a 10-ft poll. The Sentent's too busy worrying about China to really focus on this. I don't really feel like anybody's focused on the 90% of this country that's now struggling >> and letting us know they're struggling, >> right? and they're more interested in in instant gratification and you know Trump's obsessed with the market. Everybody's obsessed with something or their balance sheet and they're they're so detached from the lives of the average person because they're surrounded by ultra wealthy in nearly every circumstance or they're surrounded maybe if they're not ultra wealthy they're soon to be obviously if you look at what happens to these politicians when they get in there and they're just showered with favors. They they're so detached from reality of the average individual, they do not understand what's taking place. >> You know, I Paul, but I I'm I'm of a mind that if they keep doing this, it breaks at some point, >> right? Because, you know, we've presented this data before, but the level of debt in the United States, not just federal debt, we can talk about the 38 trillion, but debt across the whole thing, right? Right now, you look at this AI boom that's happening, almost all of that's coming out of debt, right? people are borrowing like crazy. Like there's going to be another trillion dollars of borrowing on top of the all that and and eventually, you know, a bubble exists when asset prices rise beyond what incomes can sustain. >> So where's the income going to be coming from in this country, right? Is it coming from oil and gas? Well, no, not not currently. They're they're bleeding out over there on the field right now. Is it coming because we're going to, you know, import more stuff from Walmart? Mark, I mean, from China and mark it up at Walmart and that's where it comes from. Like, like where's our productive industry at this point in time? The source of that wealth? >> That's a really good question. We're we're we're shuffling money around. We're not producing things that that build real wealth. I mean, and just examine them by their fruits. Go back and look, and you talked about it maybe two or three weeks ago, that unbelievable bridge that was built for the people in China. >> That's the that's that's the fruit of real wealth. when you're when you're producing things and you're selling them to the rest of the world and they're paying you for those things and you're bringing that wealth in, you look at what's taking place there and the problem with the average American at this point and really especially the baby and and I know the baby boomers get picked on a lot and okay so I don't I don't mean it that way. I have I love the baby boomer generation. large majority of my clients are. So, but the reality is is you're looking at the past not understanding the seeds that were sewed to generate the fruit that we have today. Okay? Both good and bad. Had we not had we not had the manufacturing base and everything that we did from the 50s, 60s,7s and 80s to be able to build that wealth and that power and then stripped that you know and then sent that overseas which maximize corporate profits and that momentum continued on itself, we wouldn't be here. But we're at a completely different starting point. So you go back and look at what's taking place in China right now. They're in they have a lot of wealth that's helping the quality of life for their citizens and and we're not we're just not in the position to repeat that again over the next 30 to 40 years and and hindsight bias is a major thing that you have to pay attention to from a psychological standpoint in investing and a lot of it is emotional a lot and all of our life that's why wisdom is so important and I've said this before but Raf the belly has a phenomenal book called the art of thinking clearly that just just highlights all this so you can think more critically. But that hindsight bias leads us to project what's happened in the past into the future. And we're looking back over the past 40 to 50 years and and and subconsciously thinking is different this time. We're smarter. We're wiser. We're a you hear people say we're we're the most morally ethically right nation in the world. Okay. Well, we lie a lot. So where's that moral basis? We don't respect the rule of law. So is that morally, you know, anyway? So, [clears throat] so my concern is is is, you know, I we don't know how much longer this euphoria lasts, but reality is going to set in. And those that are wise, okay, and they're they're critically thinking about this are going to come out the other side better than than the foolish, the scoffers, and and I can't think of the other category, those greedy individuals. A >> lot of challenges out there. I'm I'm still confused by exactly where the Trump economic plan is going to take us, except, you know, I know we have more deficit spending. I know things are harder for, you know, Americans. It has been for a long time, right? This is like we've been living paycheck to paycheck as a nation for quite a while, but I think it's starting to bite now, Paul. So, um, Craft Heights says the US is headed into the worst recession ever as consumers just aren't even buying staples. That's how they're experiencing it right now. And I don't want this to become a a discussion about ketchup because Craft um, sells a lot of stuff, right? Um, >> yes. Uh I look at almost all of those brands and now I consider that almost all to be poison um based on what I now know about food. But still it sort of gives you a pulse on things. And Ben Norton uh here noting that four-fifths of the people in the US are living in areas territories are living in recession. That's the real economy. But it looks like the US economy is growing in aggregate because a huge AI stock market bubble in spending by the richest 10% who are now more than half of all consumers spending is just the top 10%. So make of that what you will, right? So he says one economy for the rich or the asset rich and another for everyone else. Um obviously that's not a very stable situation right there. But um if you are listening to this and you feel like things aren't as uh shiny happy as the stock market is suggesting then you probably live in one of these four fifths areas out here that looks like that >> and just the level of desperation. This is one thing that a comment was made to me from someone when I was first getting started in business. You know Holly staying at home. We're making that sacrifice. We're fighting hard to make ends meet. you know, budget was unbelievably tight. And they made the comment said, "Money's easy to make and hard to keep." And it pissed me off. I was like, "Money is not easy to make." Like, it it takes a hard a tremendous amount of effort. But one thing that I have learned in watching businesses and and being in the investing world over time is money is easy to make, but it's hard to keep because of taxes and debts and mistakes and lawsuits. You name it. Everything that's out there is is trying to get into your pocket. But one thing that I have learned is the easier money is to make, the harder it is to keep. So, you think about what this market's doing right now with people that are levering themselves up and the Fed's really been just kind of backstopping everything and training investors to near panic buy the dip and and what we had a suite of five times leverage pro uh products come out and people are not concerned about five times leverage, you know, and then you hear a couple of weeks ago with the the little crypto pullback and you all these people, you know, complaining because they were wiped out on a you know, I can't remember how much that correct ction was, but it shouldn't have been enough to completely wipe people out. What was it 10 or 10 or 15% something like that? That's I mean, that's nothing for crypto. I mean, you should be used to that. But they were levered to the hilt >> and it completely wiped them out. So, all of that easy money they made >> was gone overnight. And um and that's the concern about where we are in the cycle. We don't know where when this thing tops. And I, you know, we've had to to expand our strategies just a little bit to kind of play the game by the rules that are forced upon us, but we tightened up our exits, you know, and and there's times where you just kind of ride this thing right here and you're you're you're ready to run for the exit quickly because it who knows it could last another year or two. We may blow all the two, you know, all historical measures out by 30 or 40 more percent. But that that doesn't mean everything has changed. Even if we say valuations are going to stay permanently higher for whatever reason, you're still going to have reversion to the mean. You're still going to have uh economic cycles. You're still going to have I mean that's one thing. Everything that seems to be a part of our the experience, the world that we live in has cycles from seasons to moons to tides to life cycles and generational cycles. And we're at the point where this generation does not remember the lessons of the past. And unfortunately, there's going to be a lot of pain to bring about uh those lessons for the next generation as well before this is over. Well, it used to be stock market cared if you were in a recession or an expansion or not. Now it doesn't seem to care. It's ignoring all those signs, right? So creaking and popping sounds all over the place. But one of the things, Paul, you remember you're old enough like me uh that you you've been through this isn't your first bubble, right? >> And you know what this the top sign is of every bubble, right? It's stupid stuff, right? They just people just throwing money at whatever because you're at this bubble. There's credit everywhere, right? Because there's two things you need to create a bubble. A good story and ample credit. You can't have a bubble without credit, right? So, everybody's got to lever up and go on credit. So, we talked a couple couple times ago, we're seeing that subprime area make some creaking sounds, right? And as Ed Dow says, that's probably because all these um illegal migrants are going home. >> Yeah. >> But they borrowed all this money and people just lent it to them. People without like social security numbers or identification. here you go have get a car and and they go home and they're not going to pay that back. So you see that implosion, which we talked about from the outside in. But this caught me because remember stocks are for show, bonds are for dough. >> Black Rockck uh their private credit arm. So you got private equity, private credit, PEC, right? Their private credit arm was defrauded of over $500 million by an Indian named Senkim Brahmibat. How does how does how does how does Black Rockck get defrauded for a half a billion? Uh obviously your lending standards were a little loose. Uh you weren't dotting all the eyes and crossing the tees. Uh you were That's a bubble sign to me. That's a creaking sound. When when even big giant firms get easily defrauded, it means they were too eager to make the money go out the door. >> They were they were and I have that headline here if you want me to share it if you've not not been able to find it. >> Yes, please. Yeah. >> So, um you know, and that's the exclusive here, you know, and the question is at the bottom. If Black Rockck's If Black Rockck's 12 million trillion asset management machine can miss 500 plus million in forged documents and fake invoices, what else are there are they missing? Right. Yeah. I mean, and and it's worth reading for those of you that are out there. So, if you want to find it, stock market news, put that out there. And I'm still kind of wondering whether they're sensational from time to time, but this does check out. The level of effort that this guy went through to defraud Black Rockck is unbelievable. But you got that many resources and you're so complacent that you don't even do a basic, you know, pick up the phone call and call to verify any of that data. And that's the only reason, what was it says here? Somebody finally picked up the phone and called AT&T, I believe it was. and they're like, "We don't know who you're talking about." And they and there was $500 million loaned out there. I mean, that that's the type of cycle we're in. That's where the complacency has come into the play and into the markets when you've got these big asset managers. >> And what do they care? I mean, the taxpayers have been bailing them out through the Fed every time that that they've done something wrong. So why should they not just lean towards max profitability regardless of what the consequences are if they fully believe that they're too big to fail, right? Oh, they're not going to let us come apart because, you know, that would be bad for the economy. That would cause a lot of people to lose their jobs and then they could, you know, put their creativity to place and maybe you would have wise individuals rise up that would take the reigns of power. So that that that blew my mind. I read that like three times when it came out. I'm like, at what point did nobody just pick up the phone and verify? >> Well, for those with eyes to see and ears to hear, you know what you're looking at. That is a late cycle marker that just says you're near the top. You're near the end, not the beginning. All that stuff. You only get that sloppy towards the end. Remember like the So, we had the housing crisis, right? Which ultimately was nobody seemed to care because I originate the loan. I'm countrywide, you know, Angela Maro, right? you know, I originate it, but I sell that thing out like by the end of the day. Somebody else takes it, tonses it up, sells it off, and they don't care cuz they're not holding it. Right? If you said, "Hey, Paul, I'm going to sell you this this bucket of mortgages." But you have to hold them for the duration. You're probably going to peer at them more carefully than if you're going to hold them for an afternoon. Right? That's >> right. >> But the idea is that you make sure that when the music's going, you play the game because there's all this money coming in. But when the music stops, that's when you suddenly find out who's holding the bag. And to your point, I think players like Black Rockck, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, they learned their lesson. They learned it good and hard, which is well, if the bag is too big that they're holding, they'll get bailed out by the taxpayer. Um, so, right, >> why wouldn't you? You make gobs of money while times are good and you get made whole, 100 cents on the dollar when when things go pear-shaped on you. That's obviously you're going to get more of this junk and along the way, you find out Black Rockck's buying up all the homes. So people can't start houses. Young people, whole generations are being emiserated by this thing. It it's just it leads to political outcomes that are I think are unfortunate >> and we should just diagnose it for what it is. We don't make anything anymore in this country as much as we make financial products, >> right? >> Which is fun. You make a lot of money at it. >> But is it really actually prosperity? The answer is for a while. For a few. >> That's right. For a while. For a while. Well, so we start it started withricolor, then it went to First Brands, >> and I've run out of fingers between my two hands to count how many uh have blown up at this point. But there was another >> Prime Lend went down. >> Here's another one that I'll share here because I pulled this up. Black Diamond Capital, a distressed debt fund, bought 70% of the AAA tunch of the SASB, single asset single borrower bond. They bought the mortgage backing the CNBS at a discount. which triggered the liquidation of this bond. According to Bloomberg, 72 million losses to the AAA bond holders. All other trenches wiped out. There have only been two instances of losses to AAA rated tranches in CNBS since the great financial crisis, including this one. >> You know, that's shocking. Did Did Moody's downgrade those bonds this afternoon? [laughter] Yeah, they go from AAA to triple C overnight once them once they can't hide it anymore, right? >> Thank you, ratings agencies. You're on the job once again. >> Yeah, [laughter] and and that's what really concerns me about where we are right now. I mean, I would love to call the top right now, but that's a that's a foolish Aaron. There's no way I would short this market right now because you can't short euphoria. Okay. And and in addition to that, normally I'm really really early, but we've been talking about my concerns in the private equity market. Okay, I am seriously concerned about what's taking place in the private equity market and especially with this push to market it on the average retail individual, but we're seeing things blow up under the surface. And and and one of the things I've been watching really closely that concerns me a lot and I think I I told you this and maybe I don't know if I was this clear, but when gold was really taking off over the past month, I was really worried like like [clears throat] really worried just just looking head on a swivel trying to figure out what's getting ready to blow because the dollar wasn't breaking down. The 20-year Treasury wasn't breaking down. Um you know, we just didn't have signs. And then Wall Street's talking about this debasement trade. So finally gold has a correction. Thank goodness we kind of get back to normal. I know it's not fun to go through. But then we're seeing all of these defaults under the surface and all this fraud. 500 million disappears here. 8 billion disappears here. And and the market is in a position to where all of this you know euphoria is papering over all of these at this moment in time. So, I will tell you now I, you know, I went from being really worried that we're in with gold's price movement that we're in an eminent, you know, currency collapse or the Fed's going to come out and print us into oblivion. >> Gold finally has it correction, but with nothing else taking place, the Fed did come out, they cut rates, they're going to stop quantitative tightening. That's a big big deal. But uh I'm more concerned about deflation in in the next 12 to 24 months or disinflation, however you want to look at it, [snorts] with with all of this overleveraging and this fraud that's in the system that that pulls capital out. And you know, I do believe that the Fed's going to print. I do believe that that that may be the death nail for the dollar, but we might see some deflation in the interim period before which causes a lot of liquidation. The question is, can they turn it on the other side or are they just going to immediately go back to showering the economy and the global economy with money trying to paper it over? I don't know. There's two completely different investment styles that you have to have depending upon that outcome. But I don't believe that that at this moment in time anybody can say for certain what's getting ready to happen. You have to be in a position to where you've got some tools that can guide you to bolt in the inflationary debasement trade or bolt for protection of capital in in a deflationary trade in the short run. And that's not easy, you know. And I I'm so sorry that investors have to put up with this. I'm so sorry that our leaders have put us in a position because they're so weak that we have to be having conversations about this. But but it's the reality of the situation that we deal with and we can either ignore it and stick our heads in the sand or we can solidify ourselves to the fact that we're not going to navigate the future perfectly. But if we if if we can do it wisely, we're going to come out the other side of this foolishness uh with with maybe a little stumbling instead of being absolutely wiped out like the scoffers and the fools will be. And unfortunately, a lot of the simple before it's over. >> Well, this you absolutely need the context. You need to be aware. That's why we do what we do. Like education is step one, but education without action is possibly just anxiety producing, right? So, hey, we'll present the data. This is this is what this is who I am in my life is I Paul I just I give people the data, but then I say and here's what you need to do about it. I'm not here to scare people. I'm not here to try and get people all excited with greed like follow me you'll get fantastic really rich or look out you know hey the data is what it is right and and you have to read the signs carefully and like you say it's super hard now because there are forces outside of the markets monkeying with the markets to make them show what they want them to show right >> right just like the BLS lies about jobs for political reasons forever and ever that was market moving information that turned out to be all wrong, right? Every time the market gets a little weak, somehow there's this mysterious support that shows up. And um gosh, I can't pull that headline up either. But remember, we just found out that the Cayman Islands suddenly, mysteriously aren't housing $200 billion of treasuries. They're housing 1.3 trillion dollar of treasuries. Little Cayman Islands way down there. >> Yep. And they were just like, "Oh, how did we not know this?" So, I'm like, "How did you not know that?" H, you know, cuz these are all reported things. Like, like you don't just accidentally put treasuries down in the Cayman's. Like, this is all known, Paul. Like, like this idea that like they had to do some sloofing to figure this out is like that's not how it works. Those QIP numbers are all logged. They're all in systems. You run a financial business. You know, that'd be like somebody coming in and going, you'd be like, "Oh, I did not know I had another 80 million of client funds. It was escaped my notice. >> [laughter] >> Nope. Nope. >> Doesn't work that way. >> They knew. And that's a situation where it's like, "Oh, dang. Somebody let that information out. So, let's just lie a little further." >> Yeah. But to complete the story on the other side, Paul, how about this? Remember, didn't Chipotle um didn't they do a 10 to1 stock split at one point? >> Yes, if I remember correctly. Yes. >> Um yeah. So, you know, it they just so anyway, they just came out and said, "Oh my gosh, you know, earnings were terrible. Aftermarket, it fell 16%, $6. It's falling even further. I just checked the market right now, um, which is, uh, just opened." And so at any rate, Chipotle was a surprise to me because it's a it's a it's a restaurant >> and it's trading at a PE of 35, which is little rich for >> a restaurant, you know, because very typically those trade with 15s or twelves or 10. Um so I actually think that this is also another sign that people just can't afford expensive um burritos at this particular moment in time. And they have become expensive. You go to Chipotle, dude, it's expensive to eat there now. >> It's it's unbelievably expensive. And that's one of the things I've noticed at even these college games, it's ridiculously expensive to eat. And you know, so like Holly and I, depending upon what the game is and our parents, we always eat something before we go on the game just because you're paying three times the price of what it is. And and people seem to be cutting back or being forced to cut back. And going back to that chart that you had where 25% are living paycheck to paycheck at the bottom like like literally. So let's just assume that they're renting. Okay. So we've had a lag with property taxes and insurance that have come up. So all of these landlords get higher property taxes, higher insurance. What do they do with that? They're going to pass it straight down to the bottom line because they're in the position where they want to keep their maximum profitability on that property or they've got to keep it to cover the leverage that they have on it. and that person's stuck in a situation where they're having to to bring that in, you know, to absorb that extra rent cost if they can't move or or lower that rent or move in with somebody else. Some people move in with somebody else, but others are going to have to cut back somewhere because it's a choice of, hey, going out to eat or keeping a roof over our head. And I think that's why you're starting to see, you know, a lot of these areas where the average consumer average being 50 percentile are having to really cut back hard. And I don't think that trend is going to change without either money being printed. Yep. >> Or the markets coming apart. Today's markets are more volatile than ever with ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. 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I'm Dr. Chris Martinson, proud to work with Peak Financial Investing [music] and my support reflects my professional views. I encourage you to take control of your financial future by making informed decisions. You know, recessions are like that silent dog whistle that only consumers can hear. you know, and I think it spreads. It has a psychological component, which is like when when you go out and the restaurants are all packed, >> you get one vibe off of it. And if you go out and suddenly the restaurants are hefted empty, you get a different vibe off of the whole thing. And so people vibe off of the vibe, you know, and do what they're going to do. But we've we've known this for a while, like job postings. This is um on Indeed, uh so it's tracked at at the Federal Reserve Fred system, and um yeah, it's it's clearly weak and heading down. So, >> we're having fewer jobs. >> People are already dialing back on what we would call luxury fast food purchases, >> which be the Chipotle experience, right? Um and uh they're dialing back on on, you know, branded foods, right, which are a little bit premium priced compared to um unbranded stuff or store brands. So, so these are all signs that that there is weakness, economic weakness out there, of course. And I think everybody would be be well advised to understand that the reason for that is is like I can't have a single conversation when I go out and ask people about this, Paul, without them talking about how hard it is to get by right now because of all the inflation. >> And if you're paying attention like we are, you know that the Fed threw in the towel on inflation. They're not they're not shooting for a 2% target anymore. like >> I guess 3 to 4% is the new 2%, right? >> And that leaves uh the potential for that to become eight or nine or 10% again because of of things. So, >> so yeah, I think it's important I I support people not eating out and tightening the belt a little bit because as we counsel all the time, make sure you got 12 to 24 months of living expenses if you can. And I know that's just not music to the ears of the 25% that just, you know, barely scraping by, but for people who can, you got to put some, you just got to just got to reel it in a little bit here if you can. >> Yeah, you have to. And one of the things I'm hearing, people that have been able to job hunt a job jump u easily are really struggling. So, even the high-end job market is really struggling at this point. And here's another bit of data. So, the caby letter put out and it's easier to do Twitter even though I subscribed to him or X sorry recent layoffs here UPS 48,000 employees Amazon up to 30 announcements 30,000 employees Intel 24,000 Nestle 16,000 Accenture 11,000 Ford 11,000 Nova Nordics 9,000 Microsoft 7,000 PWC Salesforce Paramount Target Kroger applied materials materials and meta 600 I mean We're clearly seeing the labor market weaken and Samantha Lidduck that that I I like some of the stuff she puts out. She's kind of like Sen Hendrick and in her big picture, you know, she she posted on X the other day, recession into all-time highs, and it's really what it looks like under the surface, but the markets don't care. And and and and there's just the mechanics of the machine behind itself right now that can cause this to last a little bit longer. I mean, you're if you're if you're a a risk manager, you're you're you're you either have the choice to chase into the end of the year or if you're working for a big corporation, you're going to lose your job, right? Because if the seauite all they care about you keeping up with what the S&P 500 does, then they're forcing everybody to chase the same little shiny uh lure to pull everybody in. >> Well, let me just build on that point quick. just this is snapshot I took this morning. Markets haven't opened yet. These are futures and as we've talked about like you know the S&P futures are up 61 at the time I took this. I don't know if they're higher or lower at the time we're talking. But the point is that if the S&P goes up 60 points today because of all this hoopla that wasn't because investors bought it during the cash market. All of that movement happened again in the futures market. This is all heavily controlled. You can see here that the Dow Jones took off right here at this exact moment of just about 640 something. So did the S&P. So did the Nasdaq. So did the really Paul investors suddenly woke up all excited at 640, >> you know, and said time to buy. Nah, this is the game and this is it over a longer term. Here's the S&P from uh 2025 year to date. And yeah, there was that little April sort of a kurfluffle, but then you know, the Fed got busy and and liquidity magically expanded. And here we are just like on a straight line. And as Harry Maropoulos, the guy who who broke the um Bernie Maidoff scam said, whenever you see a straight line in finance, it's fraud. >> I'm not saying it's fraud, but it just doesn't feel quite right. And for the Fed to be saying, you know what we're going to do right now, Chris and Paul? We're we just need to get the money printer going again. We're already M2 is already expanding. This is a broad definition of money. Money supply is up 4.5% year-over-year. Obviously, the economy isn't up 4 and a.5%. So, what's that come from? This is all lending. And a lot of that, Paul, is going into the AI space. And I'm convinced. I'm convinced that the federal government has been shoveling money into AI and that's showing up now in some of the Amazon earnings and in the everybody's earnings in that space because it's an existential race. We can't lose this race. What if China wins? Bad things will happen. National security, all of that. But they haven't been forthright about it. Um, so but I know I know they're they're pumping that. But here's where we are, Paul. After all of that, economy is really weak. Stocks are powering higher. Even Bloomberg now [laughter] is having to notice some things. And they put out this great little quadra set here of charts. They said price to sales ratio never been higher for the S&P 500. Never higher. Price to book never higher. 2000 right in the dust. price uh forward price to earnings ratio not the highest ever but right up there in in the top period or the 12 month dividend yield less than 1%. Isn't that astonishing? Or just above 1% I guess it's hard to read this. I guess four three I guess that would be just Anyway, that's not a that's not a 12-month dividend yield. That's that's nothing. Um >> that's astonishing. >> But even Bloomberg's kind of going a little weird. Mhm. >> Right. But >> Right. They still keep going up. There's what are you going to do? Somehow money pours into this market every night into the futures market. >> That's the game. >> Well, someday that'll reverse. >> And I think it's a lot of technical moves. So, one of the things I read about two weeks ago is just paying attention to the options market and paying attention to market makers and what they have to do. So, one of the options market analysts made the comment said, "Now, I can't remember the level, but we've crossed it uh today uh or at open this morning. NASDAQ's up another 1% says if if this rally continues, then market makers are going to become forced buyers, technically forced buyers to hedge their positions that they have out there." So, you know, if you've got a computer program that understands the technicals of the market, you can force these these, you know, force buyers to kind of get in there at least for some period of time. And I think the hope is is that that they can get out before all of this takes place. And if you if you have the ability through algorithm trading to force these lines to be crossed, now you're generating force buyers to sell into. And behind that, you've got Wall Street. you know, retail, which is just feeling fear of missing out like crazy. And, you know, I saw a good uh post the other day. Somebody said, "This is the point of the bubble phase to where if you're not in, you can't chase because the extra 10% to the upside is not worth the decline on the other side." And if you're in, you know, you just got to kind of ride this thing and look, you know, have hopefully your tools would give you an exit before it just melts apart. Well, and it's gonna melt apart with with um with prejudice, right? Because >> it is >> because because we have like um uh FINRA margin debt. So, looking at margin debt, we're at $1.2 trillion now. 1.21 uh uh uh you know, whatever that means. Um but that's all borrowing. This is this is people, entities, individuals, firms borrowing to speculate or juice their returns in the stock market because that's what FINRA margin debt is. This is all borrowing to to participate with leverage in the stock market. So leverage is a lot of fun on the way up and it's not as much fun on the way down. But this move here, Paul, this this one right here, this last bit you're talking about, that FOMO, that is a nearvertical line. That is unbelievable. There's really no other comparable period except after the Fed threw what four or five trillion into the market here in 2020 and people took advantage. this downturn year. Remember 2022 so long ago, >> but that was a year where we had both stocks and bonds go down, which is a very unusual pair combo, right? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I just want to remind people that when your margin debt goes backwards, it's extra painful. That's what I meant by the with prejudice comment. Easy up, hard down. >> And on Tuesday, so what date was Tuesday? Tuesday was October the 28th. we had a very unusual occurrence happen in the market. From what I understand, it's the only time that has ever happened in history to this extreme. So, they call it breadth. Okay? So, even in the S&P 500, you've got a K-shaped economy right now because on Tuesday, the S&P 500 hit an all-time high and 398 of the 500 S&P 500 names closed negative for the day. So, here's the thing. If you're not in the index on that day, if if you're a value investor, if you're fundamental investor, if you have some parameters around, you know, wise investing, then you could have been negative on that day with the market up. So that is nearly >> well that's nearly 80% of the stocks were down. And to be exact, 398 out of 500 is 79.6% of the stocks were negative on Tuesday. first time that's ever happened in history to that negative an of an extreme. So, we're setting all kinds of records in this environment and people just don't know. >> Well, indeed, I I think we're at a turning point in this cycle. And again, it could be a blowoff top that goes even further. But the last piece of data I had for today, Paul, was this, which is that bank reserves have fallen now below this three trillion mark here. And this this doesn't go back super far this chart, but this is this is below the Fed's comfort zone because they I forget the exact percentages, but they want bank reserves to be some percentage of the of the overall economy. This is around 10% I think. Um but they have a number in mind. Could be 12%. Don't quote me on it. But just Dario pointing here that um out here with a slightly longer term chart, at least it goes back to 2021 here. He says, "Folks, quote, US banks reserves are literally in freef fall. The level is now the lowest in the past 5 years and far below where the US regional banks crisis started. Beware, banks are one of the engines of the stock market and currently stocks are flying high with one engine on fire. Um so bank reserves are falling. The Fed's going to have to try and get um these uh reserves growing again. What did I just say? I said they're going to print. >> That's how you get more money out into the system. >> Yeah. Yeah. And my question is, does the market force them to print or do they literally just just go all in and start printing before we get there? It looks like they're trying to at least lay the foundation for that at this point. Or for us, you know, skeptical people, I would really like to see the audit trail on that 1.3 trillion of treasuries in the Cayman Islands. I'd like to know if somebody hasn't already been printing and stuffing that offshore because remember you and I we both noted October of 23 coming into that last day of October uh the market was breaking all these technical levels. It looked like it was in freef fall one night it just went the other direction. Is it somebody has access to those computers and knows where the pain points are and can sort of like you know ignite things the other direction but you can't really get that ignition unless there's lots of liquidity. you have to have lots and lots of liquidity that got into the market somehow and I've never seen an accounting for where it came from. So that's why when I find there's an extra trillion parked in the cavemans, I'm like, hm, that seems like a lot of money. >> Yeah. >> You know, >> and that extra trillion leverage could turn into an extra 8 trillion if they're leveraging that up enough across the board. So that expands the money supply relatively quickly. So, I mean, that's what it feels like to me is is just like it's just more and more and more just in almost desperate, right? Um just desperately trying to just keep things going up and to the right. >> I I believe, you know, Ecclesiastes, right? To everything there is a season, right? You have to breathe in, you have to breathe out. Recessions aren't the worst thing in the world unless you have an overleveraged, you know, financially driven market and you're worried that if it starts to unravel, it could really do something that you're scared of. Um, you know, I guess, but we shouldn't have gotten in that position in the first place. We should have been wise enough to say, "Yeah, we shouldn't that that wouldn't be the right direction to go." >> And the only way to change, alter the path, and get out of it is to just tell the truth. Just let the truth be out there, right? And then and have the courage to accept that truth regardless of what the consequences are on the other side because that is the best path no matter what. We have to have a basis on truth instead of deception. And anybody who has experienced deception, whether you've had somebody, you know, take advantage of you from fraud or, you know, all of these things, you understand that deception produces horrific fruit in society. And that's why I get so frustrated that our government leaders should tell us the truth or at least not lie, right? Just tell us the truth or at least don't lie. Don't don't don't lie to us all the time because that's going to bring about catastrophe in our society at some point. You don't know when that lie can last a lot longer than anybody can be patient. But the truth will ultimately come out in the end. It it cannot be hidden forever because the truth is a foundation that is not built on sand. Well said. And with that, everyone, uh, if you want to talk with Paul and his amazing team, please go to peakfinancialinvesting.com, fill out a very simple form, and somebody from Paul's office will be in touch with you within 48 business hours to set up your first appointment. And Paul, I understand that if people are interested, it's a series of appointments, right? To sort of take a snapshot, understand their particular circumstance, and then morphing that into a set of recommendations. It's at least a two-stage process, right? Yes, it is. So, to to kind of let everybody know what that process can be, it's a lot quicker if we do the introductory call, especially with me and the planning meeting together. And that's okay if you're not comfortable doing that. We'll do an introductory call. It's a chance for you to ask me any question. I had one of my most fun conversations the other day because, you know, I tell everybody I lay the foundation. Ask me anything. You're not going to offend me. You're not going to hurt my feelings. And if you think it's a simple, I used to say stupid question, but they got on to me. So simple question. It'll probably be the hardest to get all day. So I had somebody that tried really hard to offend me. And of course I knew they were they were trying. So I started laughing. They started laughing. It was hilarious. But then we moved to the planning meeting and I got to say I have people ask me from time to time, do you ever get bored doing these planning meetings? No, I don't. Because what I want you to know is every single person's situation is unique to them. Okay? Even if you have the same dollar amount as somebody else, you don't have the same goals. You don't have the same cash flow needs. you don't have the same family dynamics. So, it's it the most enjoyable thing to me in the planning meeting, and I don't get into recommendations in the planning meeting outside of what's in the plan [clears throat] because I'm focused on helping them determine whether their goals are achievable, whether their plan is sustainable, whether it's prudent. So, you know, I had somebody yesterday that's like, well, what if I do this and what if I do this? I'm like, well, that's unachievable, but this is the level of peace of mind that they had at the end of that to know that they have a wise plan in place when we got done and the joy that it brought to them was absolutely worth every bit of the time that I spent. So then from that, once we do that planning meeting, then we schedule another meeting which is the recommendation meeting. And that that gives me time to analyze what strategies that we have and and decisions that would be prudent for the individual to give them some recommendations. And I never do the planning and the recommendation together because I don't have time to really [sighs] critically think about what's best for them. And then of course, you know, sometimes we may have two planning meetings and sometime we may have a recommendation and then they think about it and we get back to questions. But but that way I know the recommendation is appropriate for that individual's circumstances and I've demonstrated it to them through the planning process. And yeah, I mean you're talking sometimes 3 hours worth of meetings before I am even in a position of they even know whether it's it's work, you know, we're a good fit moving forward together. And unfortunately, most of our industry doesn't do it because it's hard work. But there's those of us that love the hard work because it's our fiduciary responsibility to help give people the knowledge that they need to be able to make prudent decisions instead of just selling products, right? It's like, oh, you're scared. Here's an index annuity. Oh, by the way, it pays me a 10% commission. I I can't you know I mean >> not all of them do but you know our industry is so product focused instead of plan and sustainability and adaptability going forward. Once you have that plan in place now it's just a minor minor tweaks right you know you get a curveball thrown over here you got to help a kid or something like that you know we can analyze those situations and what impact that'll have on your long term. We have an unknowable future. But if we're stress testing you against the Great Depression, World War II, the Great inflation of the of the 70s, we've got a pretty dang good idea of the risks that people are going to have to be unsucc you know, that can cause them to fail. And failure means if you don't have a good plan in place and you don't stay within your budget that you run out of money before you live run out of life. And I've said this a thousand times over and it's true. We don't hear from those people in society. We don't >> because they just disappear. They don't show up to play pickle ball. They don't show up to play golf. They're not showing up to to church anymore. A lot of times they're having to move in with family or move to a completely different area. So a and they're embarrassed, right? They don't want to go around and say, "I blew up." You know, all we hear about are those success stories. And what I what I tell people, and I can demonstrate it in the plan, you can have the dumbest, foolish, most unwise plan in the world and an economic backdrop to help you be successful. But it doesn't matter how successful you are in the short run. And it doesn't matter what a strategy does if failure is too costly to bear. So it's our jobs to help people put wise plans in place that can stand the test of time. And that's why that's why I'm so adamant about we go through the planning process and then we go into the recommendation because now you know why we're recommending to you what we are and and the piece that it gives people. Yeah, people get worried. But there's a huge difference between absolute terror about what's going on in the market right now and I have to keep up with the S&P 500 because I don't know any other gauge to look at by versus hey this is my plan and and and this is kind of the minimum level that I need to achieve for success and then they get to enjoy their lives because they know that I can prudently spend this amount. I know that if I hit this mark, anything above that is gravy and it's just a much better path going forward. So that's why, you know, our tagline, I wish it was fancier, says the wisdom is in the planning. But in 27 years of being in this industry, absolutely, the wisdom is in the planning. >> Well, if anybody's wondering how you would offend Paul in one of these introductory meetings, you probably I don't know what would Paul, you look like the kind of guy who slaps the water on your backcast. [laughter] that that actually I'm I would argue with you on that like wait a minute I only do that every [laughter] now and then. So I can't even remember I started laughing so hard the picking at me, you know. So it's fun. I I I and I I accept my weaknesses and and and don't take life too too seriously because as long as I can help somebody else really doesn't matter about me. >> Excellent. Well, that's why we love working with you, Paul. And I know the feedback we get is astonishing. Uh because you >> the the most surprising thing to people is they're you're they're people to you, not numbers, not not uh not somebody you have to fit into a a particular box because you have a box >> that you put people in. Um everybody's unique and uh that's not just a a special statement. It's true. like you say, we all have different circumstances and different parts of our life and different successes and failures and family structures and all of that. So, >> and I and and I'll tell the listeners out there, if you care about customer service, it's a simple book. I can't even remember who wrote it because it's been so long. I've got it around here somewhere, but I make all the team reading fans by whoever the author is. And all it does is just point out, you know, I can summarize the whole book in an analogy. If you got a dog in front of you and Terrible analogy cuz clients aren't dogs. But this is analogy to pay attention to. Somebody will give me a hard time about that. If if you got like my dog Tippet, he comes into the office. I can talk to him and he we can communicate, but let's say we don't have that level of communication. I can talk to him. I can tell him he's the sorryest dog on the face of the earth. You're terrible. And he's just wagging his tail cuz I'm giving him attention. The only thing he understands is petting and loving on them. So customer service is how we show people that we care about each other. So, if somebody hears that somebody's had something there, we'll we'll pray about it individually, write them a card, just let them know we're thinking about them. And and that's what matters, you know. Um you do it in your actions, you do it in in your your skill set, your fiduciary responsibility for clients. And and if you make a mistake, you admit it. You know, I you know, Cookie Monster eats the return phone call message every now and then, but as soon as you discover it, you call and say, "Hey, I'm sorry. This is what happened. will put checks and balances in place to make sure it doesn't happen again. And if you if the Cookie Monster eats a a to-do to call somebody back, you know, 6 months, then 24 months later, then 5 years later, you're improving. And that's that's one thing I love about our team. There's 11 of us now. And they all care about people. And you know, Rene's been here 21 years, Britney 15, Carrie 21, Dylan, you know, [music] and and uh you know, they care about the people we serve. Well, thank you for the the excellent customer service and financial planning you do with people and uh taking the fiduciary responsibility seriously, which [music] is important to do. Um so with that again, peakfinancialinvesting.com for everybody. Paul, thanks for your time again. We'll see you next week. Trade safe everyone and um keep keep your head on a swivel. That's all for now.