S&P 500: Technicals point to overbought conditions with likely 5% pullbacks; preference is to buy dips rather than chase into overhead resistance.
Dollar Weakness: A structural downtrend in the US Dollar is expected, with potential range-bound action near-term before further declines.
Crude Oil: A short squeeze driven by Iran geopolitics pushed prices higher, but stance is neutral now with resistance near $68-$72.
Gold: Bullish bias remains with potential breakout above recent highs; risk is a temporary DXY bounce, but longer-term outlook is positive.
Precious Metals: Broad participation seen in silver, platinum, and palladium, reinforcing the bullish setup for the complex.
Uranium: Market at an inflection point; equities have surged while spot lags, and a spot price move could accelerate the bull market; Oklo was cited as a big mover.
US Treasuries: 10-year yields look stable but vulnerable to upside; 2-year note futures seen as an asymmetric long if the Fed pivots to cuts.
Volatility & Hedges: VIX near 17 suggests limited need for aggressive hedges now, though cheap left-tail hedges could be attractive if volatility compresses further.
Transcript
This is Macrovoices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high- netw worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors. Macrovoices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is. Bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Serezna. Eric, it was great to have Rory back on the show. Now, let's get to that chart deck. Listeners, you're going to find the download link for the postgame chart deck in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, that means you have not yet registered at macrovoices.com. Just go to our homepage macrovoices.com and click on the red button over Rory's picture saying looking for the downloads. Okay, Eric, what are your thoughts here on equities? Well, Patrick, I don't have a strong view on whether there's another wave of markets drifting to still new uh you know all-time higher highs or if we're maybe ready for a consolidation or a pullback. But I do have the view that if the VIX continues to get cheaper, outofthe- money left tail hedges on thirdarter S&P risk should get cheap enough, at least out of the money to load up on in case Trump and Bessant have only shown us the first act of this play so far. And I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case. Well, Eric, let's frame this more on a technical short-term basis. Now over the last 2 months we had like a 1225% rally that has um taken the market from being extremely oversold to being quite overbought. Uh for instance we were very close to being uh 300 S&P points above the 50-day moving average which is very much a typical sign of a short-term overbought condition. not necessarily a sign that an imminent crash has to happen but simply that uh the upside has been stretched and markets often consolidate after those periods. This is at the time when you can see on uh the chart on page two that uh we have the S&P approaching those December of last year and January and February highs and so there's a substantial overhead resistance at a time when the markets overbought. So first thing that we want to conclude is that there's very little asymmetry in buying new positioning here in the market. Uh that we're overdue for some sort of a mean reverting correction and uh and uh it's best to buy dips as opposed to buying into overhead resistance. At any one moment we're likely to get one of these 5% market corrections, these 200 to 300 S&P point drops. That would be a direct test of the 50-day moving average. And uh and so I think that that is the most imminent move. Um and what catalyst maybe it's the FOMC next week or something like that that could end up being the trigger to do to bring in some of that distribution. Now uh does that mean that there's going to be a bigger market drop? Well, maybe we can look at something deeper into the third quarter that we could have something more ominous. But uh my first positioning here is that when we get this correction, it will be bought on dip. And so if we have this uh that that could also be driven by for instance there's the infamous uh JP Morgan whale trade out there which is all open around the 5900 strike uh with you know billions and billions of dollars of notional out there that is going to be like a magnet to this market going into the end of June. So, us pulling back a couple hundred points uh and gravitating towards that strike is going to make uh the rest of June likely to be rather boring and inactive from an S&P index perspective. Uh now, after that uh there could still be a summer rally, retesting highs, all these different things and then uh the market will assess from there as to whether it's going to start to roll over uh from there. So, at this moment, we are not buying anything new. I don't think there has to be any aggressive hedging. The VIX is uh very close to 17 handles. So, uh there's still room for a little bit of ball contraction uh to be uh occurring um during bull phases, but overall uh this is not a level to be buying. All right, so let's uh let's move on here and uh touch on the dollar. Well, we're consolidating here between 98 and 100. I do expect further weakness. I think we are in a new structural downtrend in the dollar which is by design and desired by President Trump and Secretary Bessant. I think they're they have the tools they need in order to get what they want. Expecting further weakness is definitely the path of least resistance. It is the primary trend. This has been an incredibly distributed chart. Uh every rally is failing. Uh and distribution is dominant. it's spa it's been below its 50-day moving average consistently for the last 5 months and so um this trend uh is definitely down. Now we are trading at the April lows uh and um the market is incredibly oversold. The question here becomes is that will this behave as almost like a technical double bottom, a support line that could have the dollar find that support and trade back to the top and the ranges. And that's without making a bully is simply that that is the dollar now far more going to be trade rangebound and the support holds here. Uh or is there another full leg down? Well, a full leg down from a measured move perspective would see the 95 level being tested on the Dixie. Now, uh that's not actually my favorite scenario, but if we break to a lower low, that it's 100% the target. Um and uh but uh if I was to uh be pressed as the most probable, I still think that the dollar is so grossly oversold that a bounce off the support line back toward 102 uh and that a trade range into the middle of summer uh will prevail is the base case that I have here. And that makes uh the dollar quite inactive. Unless you're a a a day trader or swing trader looking for a couple hundred pips swing in a currency for a quick trade, I think the dollar here is much more likely to be boring and trade rangebound uh for the interm until later in the year when something more ominous can get underway. All right, Eric, let's touch on that crude oil. Well, obviously the feature interview covered all the fundamentals. Uh, I just want to note that that was recorded Tuesday afternoon. So, we were obviously not aware of what was to come on Wednesday. If you include the futures reopen at 6:00, we saw at one point more than $5 of upward price action during the course of the day on Wednesday. And needless to say, that was a result of growing concerns about geopolitical escalation in Iran. Patrick, as our resident technician, what do you see in the charts? Well, over the last couple weeks, Eric, I've uh been uh talking about the uh double bottom technical formation that has basically seen over the month of April and May uh have oil still in a primary downtrend, but showing signs of uh of the price action being defended and even quietly accumulated. Uh we were identifying that if we got a legitimate breakout above the 50-day moving average out of the flagging formation that it could drive a bit of a short squeezing to the upside as uh much of the uh trader positioning is either short crude oil and or being out of the market altogether and so that usually spurs some sort of a covering and chase to the upside when a breakout like this happens. It just so happens that uh the Iran news and geopolitical escalation uh was now the trigger point that has caused that. Now that we've seen us uh print $69 uh on the upside uh before fading a little bit off the high, the question is is there more uh on that upside? Well, if we look at that chart on page four, uh we can see that all of the second half of last year had the consolidation lows in this 68 to $72 trade range. So now we have literally came and tested what were all of previous support lines. Uh and the question now is does that act like overhead resistance? Will oil struggle to re-enter that trade range and will uh sellers ultimately fade this uh rally and send it back in the trade range? Well, I'm not uh structurally and fundamentally bullish oil. I just thought it was incredibly oversold and due for one of these types of squeezes. So, I uh at this moment, now that the squeeze has happened and the money's been made, I'm taking a little bit of a neutral stance where sure this thing could squeeze to 7072 on the upside. Um, but uh I wouldn't be buying new positioning on oil uh after this rip has already gotten underway. All right, Erica, let's uh touch on gold. Well, Patrick, this gold bull market has definitely been feeling a little more sluggish in terms of the pace of the rallies in the last few weeks. Obviously, that's uh changed as a result of the geopolitical escalation in Iran. Now, all of a sudden, gold's taking off to the upside as of recording time. We didn't know whether there was going to be a strike on Iran or not, but uh in case there is one, gold is definitely reacting accordingly. I I wouldn't be surprised if we're just setting the stage for something that won't happen until the weekend. So, we'll probably see more strength in gold going into the weekend if that's the case. In any event, uh I hope that we don't get too far ahead of ourselves and break out to new all-time highs too quickly. Again, we were getting a little bit ahead of ourselves before. The risk here is of course a technical bounce in the Dixie, which is totally possible. Looking at the Dixie chart, uh a risk a technical bounce in the Dixie could result in another wave of weakness for gold, but I think it's definitely likely to resolve to the upside as the dollar resolves to the downside longer term. Well, Eric, we did get a key breakout attempt in gold uh that uh got it trading right back up towards those uh April and May highs. Uh that has now spurred this uh oneweek consolidation. Um now this consolidation uh has done nothing bearish. It's just pausing. Uh but overall we're trading up along major highs and all we need is one uh bullish catalyst to break out uh above those April May highs and we still have that 36 to 3700 target on the upside in play. What is in fact continuing to actually support this is that we've now actually gotten broader precious metals participation. what we can uh obser what I want to observe and we talked about it over the last few weeks was the breakout in silver, platinum and platium. Uh and so uh just to review the charts on platinum on uh page six and uh you can see that we had over a 20% ripped to the upside in literally just a few weeks as the platinum market has just blasted off. Platium is looking great and that silver chart on page seven you can see has broken to near highs and uh the consolidation while it's paused here is actually holding at higher highs. So we have technical bull trends happening in a lot of the precious metals outside of gold. And so this uh in my mind actually supports uh the idea that gold can still break out above this key overhead resistance. And um and I still think that remaining bullishly biased here is the path of least resistance. All right, Eric, what are your thoughts here on uranium? Patrick, I think we're at a very important fork in the road for this uranium bull market. Some of my uranium positions have doubled since the April lows. Uh Oaklo has more than tripled since the April lows. So clearly it's game on for this uranium bull market. But spot uranium prices have barely even moved yet. They're up less than $10 off their lows. My base case is that spot uranium is going to move. And when it does, I predict that this bull market will accelerate to the upside. Think about it. the the one big thing, the one big objection that the bulls don't have a good answer to is how come the spot price has been stuck so low for so long. And of course, everybody that's in the no understands that the term price is what really matters. And it hasn't been that depressed. It's been holding steady at more than $80 for this entire market cycle. But the spot price hasn't moved yet. When's it going to move? That's the question that nobody can answer until that question is answered. There's been a huge amount of hesitation that's preventing people from going allin on this bull market. I think once we see that movement in the spot price of uranium, people will go allin. We'll see another big wave of buying. Uh prices will move much higher. And on one hand, I could tell you I don't think this risk scenario is going to happen because I really think that the spot price is going to move to the upside, but frankly, I thought it was going to move to the upside for the last year and it didn't. So, what if the spot price doesn't move up? Well, that could be what spooks the market and we say, "Oh boy, we got ahead of ourselves again." And we see this is another false breakout to the upside and we're back down to filling those gaps, which I frankly would prefer as an outcome because I'd like to fill those gaps before we move higher. I don't think that's the base case. Again, I think the the base case, the most likely case is that we do see spot uranium move higher. And once it's moved measurably higher, I think it's really going to be game on for the equities at that point. Uh I'm hoping that we get a correction first, but it's looking less and less likely as this market develops. So bottom line, we're at an inflection point, a pivot point where we're either going to accelerate this rally to the upside or reverse it hard into a correction. And it's going to depend on whether or not we see a material move to the upside on spot uranium prices. Yeah, Eric, your assessment is spoton. The interesting thing that continues to be is that divergence between the spat physical uranium trust, which is reflective of spot prices of uranium versus the way that uranium equities have been ripping. Now those equities have had an extraordinary move. But we haven't seen actual uranium prices yet confirming that which really to me does suggest that if this rea engages a new bull market that this is still got lots of room to make money. Now uh on the equity side we obviously at any one moment can have uh a retracement let's say a 25 uh to 38% retracement of the uh the advance um of to create a new buying opportunity but watching whether or not the spat physical really can get underway and we see let's say that U308 finally uh get some momentum off of 70 on the upside and and get going uh it will uh certainly confirm that the uranium market has ended this one plusyear bare market that has really made it incredibly sluggish and boring uh and really could see another new bull market really gain some traction in the coming year. Patrick, before we wrap up this week's show, let's hit that 10-year Treasury note chart. Yeah, Eric. So, we have that chart here on the 10-year US government Treasury yields, which are around 440 at the time of recording. Uh overall the yields have been stable at the 10-year. The particularly interesting thing is actually how uh they're divergent from the actually far more bearish 30-year bonds. Uh the 30-year bonds look like they're almost setting up for a breakout to brand new higher yields for the decade. Just extraordinary setup to see whether it happens. And the question is is that does does that spill into the 10-year government bond uh where uh that finally makes that breakout back towards the 475 highs and and even starts to press toward that 5% handle on the upside. Uh this um right now the bond market still looks really rough. uh and that uh question becomes when uh do the rest of the markets start to care if we start seeing those yields press higher. The and the final thing I wanted to touch on is the uh 2-year US government note futures. Now, this is looking at the actual uh 2-year futures itself. And um this has been consolidating for 3 months as there uh really is a market that is just anticipating when does uh the FOMC uh start to uh back away from their uh shortterm wait and see uh positioning to that one of that they are going to be accommodative and potentially be pricing in more cuts. To me, this remains a very asymmetric trade in a sense that yeah, I feel that if you're in these 2-year US government notes, there isn't too much that could happen or or that has any reasonable probability that could drive this substantially lower. While there's plenty of things that uh could get underway that could spur the Fed to have to accelerate their the path of rate cuts. um one it could be a change of the uh the Fed chair next year. It could be um the um uh something breaking in the plumbing of the system forcing uh the the Fed to accelerate uh the easing cycle. Um it could be uh some sharp turn in the economy that no one was expecting. And to me therefore there's so many things that could cause this 2-year uh to rip. uh and at the same time uh very little uh uh downside risk if nothing ends up happening. And so to me, it's a trade that I continue to uh to like here and think that there's potential uh of this uh in for a hold for the rest of the year. Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of BigPictur Trading. The details are on the last pages of the slide deck or just go to bigpicturetrading.com. That concludes this edition of Macrovoices. Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds in finance and macroeconomics. Macrovoices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturetrading.com, the internet's premier source of online education for traders. Please visit bigpicturptetrading.com for more information. Please register your free account at macrovoices.com. Once registered, you'll receive our free weekly research roundup email containing links to supporting documents from our featured guests and the very best free financial content our volunteer research team could find on the internet each week. You'll also gain access to our free listener discussion forums and research library. And the more registered users we have, the more we'll be able to recruit high-profile feature interview guests for future programs. So, please register your free account today at macrovoices.com if you haven't already. You can subscribe to Macrovoices on iTunes to have Macrovoices automatically delivered to your mobile device each week free of charge. You can email questions for the program to mailbag@macrovoices.com and we'll answer your questions on the air from time to time in our mailbag segment. Macrovoices is presented forformational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented on macrovoices should not be construed as investment advice. 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Talking Charts – MacroVoices #484
Summary
Transcript
This is Macrovoices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high- netw worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors. Macrovoices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is. Bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Serezna. Eric, it was great to have Rory back on the show. Now, let's get to that chart deck. Listeners, you're going to find the download link for the postgame chart deck in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, that means you have not yet registered at macrovoices.com. Just go to our homepage macrovoices.com and click on the red button over Rory's picture saying looking for the downloads. Okay, Eric, what are your thoughts here on equities? Well, Patrick, I don't have a strong view on whether there's another wave of markets drifting to still new uh you know all-time higher highs or if we're maybe ready for a consolidation or a pullback. But I do have the view that if the VIX continues to get cheaper, outofthe- money left tail hedges on thirdarter S&P risk should get cheap enough, at least out of the money to load up on in case Trump and Bessant have only shown us the first act of this play so far. And I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case. Well, Eric, let's frame this more on a technical short-term basis. Now over the last 2 months we had like a 1225% rally that has um taken the market from being extremely oversold to being quite overbought. Uh for instance we were very close to being uh 300 S&P points above the 50-day moving average which is very much a typical sign of a short-term overbought condition. not necessarily a sign that an imminent crash has to happen but simply that uh the upside has been stretched and markets often consolidate after those periods. This is at the time when you can see on uh the chart on page two that uh we have the S&P approaching those December of last year and January and February highs and so there's a substantial overhead resistance at a time when the markets overbought. So first thing that we want to conclude is that there's very little asymmetry in buying new positioning here in the market. Uh that we're overdue for some sort of a mean reverting correction and uh and uh it's best to buy dips as opposed to buying into overhead resistance. At any one moment we're likely to get one of these 5% market corrections, these 200 to 300 S&P point drops. That would be a direct test of the 50-day moving average. And uh and so I think that that is the most imminent move. Um and what catalyst maybe it's the FOMC next week or something like that that could end up being the trigger to do to bring in some of that distribution. Now uh does that mean that there's going to be a bigger market drop? Well, maybe we can look at something deeper into the third quarter that we could have something more ominous. But uh my first positioning here is that when we get this correction, it will be bought on dip. And so if we have this uh that that could also be driven by for instance there's the infamous uh JP Morgan whale trade out there which is all open around the 5900 strike uh with you know billions and billions of dollars of notional out there that is going to be like a magnet to this market going into the end of June. So, us pulling back a couple hundred points uh and gravitating towards that strike is going to make uh the rest of June likely to be rather boring and inactive from an S&P index perspective. Uh now, after that uh there could still be a summer rally, retesting highs, all these different things and then uh the market will assess from there as to whether it's going to start to roll over uh from there. So, at this moment, we are not buying anything new. I don't think there has to be any aggressive hedging. The VIX is uh very close to 17 handles. So, uh there's still room for a little bit of ball contraction uh to be uh occurring um during bull phases, but overall uh this is not a level to be buying. All right, so let's uh let's move on here and uh touch on the dollar. Well, we're consolidating here between 98 and 100. I do expect further weakness. I think we are in a new structural downtrend in the dollar which is by design and desired by President Trump and Secretary Bessant. I think they're they have the tools they need in order to get what they want. Expecting further weakness is definitely the path of least resistance. It is the primary trend. This has been an incredibly distributed chart. Uh every rally is failing. Uh and distribution is dominant. it's spa it's been below its 50-day moving average consistently for the last 5 months and so um this trend uh is definitely down. Now we are trading at the April lows uh and um the market is incredibly oversold. The question here becomes is that will this behave as almost like a technical double bottom, a support line that could have the dollar find that support and trade back to the top and the ranges. And that's without making a bully is simply that that is the dollar now far more going to be trade rangebound and the support holds here. Uh or is there another full leg down? Well, a full leg down from a measured move perspective would see the 95 level being tested on the Dixie. Now, uh that's not actually my favorite scenario, but if we break to a lower low, that it's 100% the target. Um and uh but uh if I was to uh be pressed as the most probable, I still think that the dollar is so grossly oversold that a bounce off the support line back toward 102 uh and that a trade range into the middle of summer uh will prevail is the base case that I have here. And that makes uh the dollar quite inactive. Unless you're a a a day trader or swing trader looking for a couple hundred pips swing in a currency for a quick trade, I think the dollar here is much more likely to be boring and trade rangebound uh for the interm until later in the year when something more ominous can get underway. All right, Eric, let's touch on that crude oil. Well, obviously the feature interview covered all the fundamentals. Uh, I just want to note that that was recorded Tuesday afternoon. So, we were obviously not aware of what was to come on Wednesday. If you include the futures reopen at 6:00, we saw at one point more than $5 of upward price action during the course of the day on Wednesday. And needless to say, that was a result of growing concerns about geopolitical escalation in Iran. Patrick, as our resident technician, what do you see in the charts? Well, over the last couple weeks, Eric, I've uh been uh talking about the uh double bottom technical formation that has basically seen over the month of April and May uh have oil still in a primary downtrend, but showing signs of uh of the price action being defended and even quietly accumulated. Uh we were identifying that if we got a legitimate breakout above the 50-day moving average out of the flagging formation that it could drive a bit of a short squeezing to the upside as uh much of the uh trader positioning is either short crude oil and or being out of the market altogether and so that usually spurs some sort of a covering and chase to the upside when a breakout like this happens. It just so happens that uh the Iran news and geopolitical escalation uh was now the trigger point that has caused that. Now that we've seen us uh print $69 uh on the upside uh before fading a little bit off the high, the question is is there more uh on that upside? Well, if we look at that chart on page four, uh we can see that all of the second half of last year had the consolidation lows in this 68 to $72 trade range. So now we have literally came and tested what were all of previous support lines. Uh and the question now is does that act like overhead resistance? Will oil struggle to re-enter that trade range and will uh sellers ultimately fade this uh rally and send it back in the trade range? Well, I'm not uh structurally and fundamentally bullish oil. I just thought it was incredibly oversold and due for one of these types of squeezes. So, I uh at this moment, now that the squeeze has happened and the money's been made, I'm taking a little bit of a neutral stance where sure this thing could squeeze to 7072 on the upside. Um, but uh I wouldn't be buying new positioning on oil uh after this rip has already gotten underway. All right, Erica, let's uh touch on gold. Well, Patrick, this gold bull market has definitely been feeling a little more sluggish in terms of the pace of the rallies in the last few weeks. Obviously, that's uh changed as a result of the geopolitical escalation in Iran. Now, all of a sudden, gold's taking off to the upside as of recording time. We didn't know whether there was going to be a strike on Iran or not, but uh in case there is one, gold is definitely reacting accordingly. I I wouldn't be surprised if we're just setting the stage for something that won't happen until the weekend. So, we'll probably see more strength in gold going into the weekend if that's the case. In any event, uh I hope that we don't get too far ahead of ourselves and break out to new all-time highs too quickly. Again, we were getting a little bit ahead of ourselves before. The risk here is of course a technical bounce in the Dixie, which is totally possible. Looking at the Dixie chart, uh a risk a technical bounce in the Dixie could result in another wave of weakness for gold, but I think it's definitely likely to resolve to the upside as the dollar resolves to the downside longer term. Well, Eric, we did get a key breakout attempt in gold uh that uh got it trading right back up towards those uh April and May highs. Uh that has now spurred this uh oneweek consolidation. Um now this consolidation uh has done nothing bearish. It's just pausing. Uh but overall we're trading up along major highs and all we need is one uh bullish catalyst to break out uh above those April May highs and we still have that 36 to 3700 target on the upside in play. What is in fact continuing to actually support this is that we've now actually gotten broader precious metals participation. what we can uh obser what I want to observe and we talked about it over the last few weeks was the breakout in silver, platinum and platium. Uh and so uh just to review the charts on platinum on uh page six and uh you can see that we had over a 20% ripped to the upside in literally just a few weeks as the platinum market has just blasted off. Platium is looking great and that silver chart on page seven you can see has broken to near highs and uh the consolidation while it's paused here is actually holding at higher highs. So we have technical bull trends happening in a lot of the precious metals outside of gold. And so this uh in my mind actually supports uh the idea that gold can still break out above this key overhead resistance. And um and I still think that remaining bullishly biased here is the path of least resistance. All right, Eric, what are your thoughts here on uranium? Patrick, I think we're at a very important fork in the road for this uranium bull market. Some of my uranium positions have doubled since the April lows. Uh Oaklo has more than tripled since the April lows. So clearly it's game on for this uranium bull market. But spot uranium prices have barely even moved yet. They're up less than $10 off their lows. My base case is that spot uranium is going to move. And when it does, I predict that this bull market will accelerate to the upside. Think about it. the the one big thing, the one big objection that the bulls don't have a good answer to is how come the spot price has been stuck so low for so long. And of course, everybody that's in the no understands that the term price is what really matters. And it hasn't been that depressed. It's been holding steady at more than $80 for this entire market cycle. But the spot price hasn't moved yet. When's it going to move? That's the question that nobody can answer until that question is answered. There's been a huge amount of hesitation that's preventing people from going allin on this bull market. I think once we see that movement in the spot price of uranium, people will go allin. We'll see another big wave of buying. Uh prices will move much higher. And on one hand, I could tell you I don't think this risk scenario is going to happen because I really think that the spot price is going to move to the upside, but frankly, I thought it was going to move to the upside for the last year and it didn't. So, what if the spot price doesn't move up? Well, that could be what spooks the market and we say, "Oh boy, we got ahead of ourselves again." And we see this is another false breakout to the upside and we're back down to filling those gaps, which I frankly would prefer as an outcome because I'd like to fill those gaps before we move higher. I don't think that's the base case. Again, I think the the base case, the most likely case is that we do see spot uranium move higher. And once it's moved measurably higher, I think it's really going to be game on for the equities at that point. Uh I'm hoping that we get a correction first, but it's looking less and less likely as this market develops. So bottom line, we're at an inflection point, a pivot point where we're either going to accelerate this rally to the upside or reverse it hard into a correction. And it's going to depend on whether or not we see a material move to the upside on spot uranium prices. Yeah, Eric, your assessment is spoton. The interesting thing that continues to be is that divergence between the spat physical uranium trust, which is reflective of spot prices of uranium versus the way that uranium equities have been ripping. Now those equities have had an extraordinary move. But we haven't seen actual uranium prices yet confirming that which really to me does suggest that if this rea engages a new bull market that this is still got lots of room to make money. Now uh on the equity side we obviously at any one moment can have uh a retracement let's say a 25 uh to 38% retracement of the uh the advance um of to create a new buying opportunity but watching whether or not the spat physical really can get underway and we see let's say that U308 finally uh get some momentum off of 70 on the upside and and get going uh it will uh certainly confirm that the uranium market has ended this one plusyear bare market that has really made it incredibly sluggish and boring uh and really could see another new bull market really gain some traction in the coming year. Patrick, before we wrap up this week's show, let's hit that 10-year Treasury note chart. Yeah, Eric. So, we have that chart here on the 10-year US government Treasury yields, which are around 440 at the time of recording. Uh overall the yields have been stable at the 10-year. The particularly interesting thing is actually how uh they're divergent from the actually far more bearish 30-year bonds. Uh the 30-year bonds look like they're almost setting up for a breakout to brand new higher yields for the decade. Just extraordinary setup to see whether it happens. And the question is is that does does that spill into the 10-year government bond uh where uh that finally makes that breakout back towards the 475 highs and and even starts to press toward that 5% handle on the upside. Uh this um right now the bond market still looks really rough. uh and that uh question becomes when uh do the rest of the markets start to care if we start seeing those yields press higher. The and the final thing I wanted to touch on is the uh 2-year US government note futures. Now, this is looking at the actual uh 2-year futures itself. And um this has been consolidating for 3 months as there uh really is a market that is just anticipating when does uh the FOMC uh start to uh back away from their uh shortterm wait and see uh positioning to that one of that they are going to be accommodative and potentially be pricing in more cuts. To me, this remains a very asymmetric trade in a sense that yeah, I feel that if you're in these 2-year US government notes, there isn't too much that could happen or or that has any reasonable probability that could drive this substantially lower. While there's plenty of things that uh could get underway that could spur the Fed to have to accelerate their the path of rate cuts. um one it could be a change of the uh the Fed chair next year. It could be um the um uh something breaking in the plumbing of the system forcing uh the the Fed to accelerate uh the easing cycle. Um it could be uh some sharp turn in the economy that no one was expecting. And to me therefore there's so many things that could cause this 2-year uh to rip. uh and at the same time uh very little uh uh downside risk if nothing ends up happening. And so to me, it's a trade that I continue to uh to like here and think that there's potential uh of this uh in for a hold for the rest of the year. Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of BigPictur Trading. The details are on the last pages of the slide deck or just go to bigpicturetrading.com. That concludes this edition of Macrovoices. Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds in finance and macroeconomics. Macrovoices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturetrading.com, the internet's premier source of online education for traders. Please visit bigpicturptetrading.com for more information. Please register your free account at macrovoices.com. 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