Market Outlook: The podcast discusses the current economic environment, highlighting concerns about inflation, a weakening job market, and the potential for a major recession combined with high inflation, termed as "stagflation."
Investment Opportunities: There is a strong emphasis on gold and gold stocks as attractive investments, with gold stocks outperforming the S&P 500 over the past decade and being positioned for further gains.
Company Highlight: Oracle's recent earnings report is discussed, noting their significant revenue growth projections despite missing earnings estimates, which propelled Larry Ellison to become the world's richest man.
Monetary Policy: The podcast critiques the Federal Reserve's actions, suggesting that continued monetary easing could lead to a collapse in the dollar's value, with significant implications for the economy.
Contrarian Views: Peter Schiff expresses skepticism about Bitcoin, viewing it as a speculative bubble without intrinsic value, contrasting it with gold, which he views as a more stable store of value.
Global Economic Trends: The discussion includes concerns about the loss of Fed independence and the potential geopolitical impacts on the dollar, with a focus on how these factors could influence global economic stability.
Investment Strategy: Schiff advocates for a diversified portfolio with a significant allocation to physical gold and international dividend-paying stocks, highlighting their potential for strong returns amid economic uncertainty.
Transcript
This episode of the discipline investor is brought to you by Interactive Brokers. And Interactive Brokers has key competitive advantages for sophisticated investors just like you. IBKR's margin loan rates are from just 4.83% to 5.83%. In fact, IBKR was rated one of the lowest margin fees by stockbrokers.com. Compare IBKR's client low margin borrowing cost to other brokers like Well, Schwab or Erade, Fidelity, maybe even Vanguard, who charge hundreds of basis points above IBKR's low rates. Gain access to over 150 global markets for stocks and options, futures, currencies, bonds, and funds with low commissions, all from a single screen. The best informed investors choose Interactive Brokers. Of course, margin is only for experienced investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment. Rates, of course, are subject to change as well. Get started today at ibkr.com/compare. Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC. The disciplined investor is all about you, your money, and the markets. Sit back and get ready for this edition of the disciplined investor podcast. This episode of The Discipline Investor is sponsored by Horowits & Company. If you're looking for a portfolio manager, look no further. Horowits & Company. From seed through harvest, cultivating financial success. [Music] [Applause] Inflation is up and it's down. We have revisions and a weakening job market. And the 10-year Treasury Tines are baked below well 4%. and a new top dog is crowned. Our guest is Peter Schiff from Europacific Capital. All this and much more on episode number 938 of the Disciplined Investor podcast. [Music] Hey, welcome to the new highs, lower rates, and the hope that a rate cut, well, it's not going to spark further continuation of inflation trends. Andrew Horowitz here, and it's a great time to be a stock, isn't it? Or a bond. Well, I guess also real estate. Well, gold, too. Silver, not oil. Yeah, international, actually. Good time for that. not domestic small caps, but you get the idea. It's pretty much been a rally of unprecedented strength, particularly once again in the large cap growth area. The tech guys, you know the names. You know all the names. I'm not going to mention them to you because you know them all. The fact is that we've seen a really beautiful rally. all-time highs in the NASDAQ, S&P 500. A few of the indices are trailing a bit, but nonetheless, they're all picking up steam because the idea is they're firmly implanted in the psyche of investors that you know what's going to happen? Well, we're going to see lower interest rates when the Fed comes to the foreign next week. Lots of money seems to be swashing around. IPOs are hot right now. There's money to be made. People are really excited. And it's exactly what we saw with Larry Ellison this week. Talking about money being made, he made a bucket full of it. In fact, he became the richest man man in the world this week. He became the richest man in the world this week. Surpassing. Who would have thought Elon Musk with the amount of money that he has? And I can tell you that I go back a long time knowing who Larry Ellison is in the early days of Oracle in the 80s and 90s particularly the 90s particularly then again in 2000s when Larry Ellison was always challenging the other tech bros right the early days we had the big guys right in fact it was pretty intense it was decadesl long rivalries between Ellison and Bill Gates And it I would say pretty much there were others too, but those two I could it sticks in my head. I remember very distinctly who was going to beat the other. That was definitely a definition of who they were in the early days, a competition. But the fight for the richest person, that was a later development. It was really going to be who was going to be the tech dominant guy. Who's going to be the the guy that's going to win? And and clearly between the two, Larry Ellison, the cool guy, right? the cool dude and the nerd with Bill Gates. Let's take out Bomber. Let's take out all the other names, right? Steve Jobs was really in a sphere of his own. Both of these names, Gates and Ellison, became incredibly prominent figures back in the what was the I guess starting in the 80s and 90s. And then it was like, well, that was that. Gates started making money like crazy and Ellison was kind of left in the dust. Now Ellison's 81 years old. He's 81 years old. And here's what happened this week. Oracle announced their earnings, which by the way missed estimates. It wasn't a great earnings number for the quarter. However, they came in with mindblowing eyepopping crazy numbers in terms of their revenue growth. They had contracts from OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon and others that were projecting earnings for them. the revenues, the revenues, not earnings, but the revenues from multi-year like quadrupling going from like 17 billion to 44 billion to like 79 billion then to like 130 the 145 years going from 18 up to like 145 billion of crow cloud revenue. Unbelievable stock up 35% on the day. Full disclosure, good news. Our clients held that in the managed growth strategy. That was a core position of ours. That was great. But now Larry is the world's richest person. In fact, hold on to your seats because he made $und00 billion on Wednesday. 100 billion. These are numbers that governments talk about and not all governments. We're talking about pretty much the United States, maybe not even Japan. United States talks those kind of numbers. 81 years old, going strong, owns 41% of the company still. He stepped down as a CEO back in uh I think it was I think it was 2015 2014 I believe it was but he remained on as the chairman executive chairman and the uh chief technology CTO. So that's impressive. Let's take a moment before we get to uh the things that are going to happen. Our guest talk about the uh the economy. Let's I I the elephant in the room is the 900,000 revision downward for jobs that comes after the latest 4.3% print of the unemployment rate. And it's hard to know whether this revision, by the way, is going to impact that 4.3% rate. I don't know. Uh is that included already? Is it that a different deal? Yes, it's a different methodology and and way of calculating, but even with the CPI ticking a bit hotter, PPI a little bit softer, the markets are betting the Fed is like, you know what, forget about inflation. Look at the numbers over here. Look at the fact that we've increased the unemployment rate. Look at the fact that the initial claims are 263 versus 236 last week. Let's look at the fact that 900,000 people really are not working and never have been for the last year. So that's going to be pretty important. I think these are topics that we're going to really dig into during this interview with our guest today, Peter Schiff. Let me tell you a little bit about who Peter Schiff is. I think that's kind of important to discuss. Uh he began his investment career as a financial consultant with Sheer Leman Brothers. You remember that name after having earned a degree in finance and accounting from UC Berkeley in 87. A financial planning professional for over 30 years. He's the owner of Europe Pacific Asset Management. He's a chief economist and global strategist at Europe Pacific Capital uh a division of Alliance Capital and chairman of Shift Gold. Uh he's a highly recommended broker by many leading financial institutions, newsletters and advisory services. And um one of the biggest things that he did to reach notoriety was in 2008 being one of the few economists who have had accurately forecasted the financial crisis well in advance. So, he's authored several bestselling selling books including Crash Proof, Crash Proof 2.0, How the Economy Grows and Why It Crashes, and the Little Book of Bull Moves. So, let's get right to the discussion with uh the economic adviser for the 2008 Ron Paul presidential campaign, Peter Schiff. So, Peter Schiff, welcome aboard. Thanks for joining me again. >> Oh, happy to be aboard. Happy to be aboard. >> It's been a couple of three years. years. I think the last time you on was in 2002 22, but you've been going back I think we date back to like uh 201 like 11 you and I was the first time you were on the show. >> Oh, really? Yeah. I was all right. So 14 years ago. >> Yeah, it was a while. So it was great. >> Yeah. That the last time then 2011 was the last time the price of silver was as high as it is today. >> I remember that. Dicky, every time everybody every time somebody says the the the price of silver, I say Dicki. Why? Back in those days, I was act of mine and there's a guy that was visiting next door. His name was Dicki. And he was telling us about all this silver that he owned that he had for years and years and years and that he was never selling. And we're like, Dicki, just take a little off the table. It was like 45 whatever it was at the time back then, whatever. >> Remember that? >> It's finally back up to just It's almost 42 now. But of course, gold, gold is uh 36.50. So gold, you know, back then, you know, the gold was about half the price it is right now, >> right? But I actually >> gold's double, but silver's kind of gone sideways, but I think that's going to change. I think silver's, you know, silver's uh going to going to kick in here. >> We'll talk about that. I actually bought some silver recently. I bought 10 bars from Costco. >> Oh, well, you should have bought them from Shift Gold. >> Well, that's true. >> Shift Gold and Silver. We could talk about that. Let's go back to the beginning here. I want to talk about um some of the things in your professional. I want to set the stage for people that maybe haven't heard you, although there's not that many out there that haven't cuz you're pretty popular. Um but also go back to some basics and then kind of build this up. The um you know, you're a contrarian voice. You are oftentimes a contrarian voice in finance. I want to know just how do you handle that? How do you deal with that? Well, I mean, that's just kind of the role that I've played um for a long time. You know, even within the Republican party, I remember I was a big contrarian during the Bush years. I'm talking about uh George W. Bush. Those were the years that led to the 2008 financial crisis. And I was I was highly critical of uh the policies of both the Bush administration and the Fed at the time and forecast that they would lead to the uh to you know the financial crisis which which which ultimately happened. And now I'm playing the same role again. I think the Trump Republican party is actually much worse uh than Bush as far as uh the reckless nature of their fiscal policy and some of the other policies that they have. And I think the Fed is about to make even more mistakes now than Greenspan did then. And and so I think the toxic combination of inflationary, monetary, and fiscal policy is going to do a lot more damage to the economy this time than than last. And of course, you know, we did a lot of damage last time. So you only imagine how much worse it's going to be now. So, but you know comes with this these days in the early days of you talking about some of this stuff. I remember back in before and during the financial crisis, you were very vocal and very critical and all that, but it was kind of like one thing because not a lot of people had a voice. These days, everybody with social media can be their own podcaster, their own blogger, their own micro blogger, Instagrammer, Tik Tocker, and just all over everybody else, right? How seriously, how do But how do you deal with that? >> It happens. I mean, it happens. It's a it's a marketplace of ideas, you know, so a lot of people can get out there and and and you know, speak their mind, which is great. A lot of people say a lot of foolish things. Uh but there are other people that say pretty smart things, but you know, the public could vote and decide who they want to pay attention to. And I think, you know, my track record, um, you know, I I'd put that up against anybody as far as forecasting is concerned. In fact, you know, one of the most recent uh news items that came out was uh earlier in the week, the government came out, I think it was Tuesday, and they they revised down a year's worth of jobs reports by another 900,000. >> Yeah. >> And that's on top of some other revisions. But if you go back to the actual days where those jobs numbers were released that were better than estimates and you look at how they were reported in the mainstream media, financial television, you look at what uh you know the Biden administration said about them. Uh the Federal Reserve, everybody was you know bragging about how great these numbers were and how resilient the economy was and how strong the labor market was. And every single Friday of the first Friday of every month when those reports came out, I did a podcast. And on every podcast, I said, "These numbers are Don't believe them. They're going to get revised lower. We don't have a strong labor market. We have a weak labor market. The statistics are just not picking up the weakness." And I said that every month. We now know that um 10 of those 12 months ended up being misses. big misses and and and seven of them which they were originally reporting as beats, all seven were misses, right? They were celebrating them. They were great. And for all I know, there's even more revisions to come. Uh so, you know, people were able to get the truth about the uh the markets from me. They didn't get it from the mainstream media. And by the way, gold stocks are now up so much, not even counting today's gain, but the 10-year return on the Gold Stock index, the GDX, is now substantially ahead of the 10-year return on the S&P. So, people who bought gold stocks 10 years ago, uh, have gotten a better compounded return uh than people who bought the S&P. And, and gold stocks are still cheap, whereas the S&P is very expensive. You know, it's interesting because it's funny you talk about how the economic numbers and the estimates were wrong or incorrect or overdone or something was wrong. Whatever it was was wrong and um whether again whether it's the methodology or whether it's the something else, but I'm I'm going with methodology and the process, that's what I'm going with. Um, and it's funny because as you mentioned th those particular numbers along the way were celebrated like look how great the economy is, look how many jobs we're adding, things are really good and then the markets were to react positively. Now on the back end of this where we have a revision of 900 plus thousand over last year and we saw that initial claims popped a little bit uh last week to 263 versus the 220 range has been or so and the unemployment raise at 4.3%. What's interesting to note is it was celebrated again. And it's like good news is celebrated, bad news celebrated. It doesn't really matter in a way in a very twisted way. I could imagine you could write a little bit of a conspiracy thesis on how this was masterfully tied together in such a way that it put a carrot out there on a continual basis just enough to keep people interested that things were good and when it got bad that the Fed would come to the rescue. I'm not going as far as that, but is it possible? >> Well, yeah. I mean, look, the markets still are looking for bad news because they want the Fed to cut. That is the the economic or monetary heroin that that that they need. And so, anything that makes the Fed cut rates is is bullish for the stock market, unfortunately. And that that's what happened today. You know, we got I thought bad news on the CPI. the CPI was up more than they thought of point4 and if you annualize it that's 5% inflation >> but of course you know it's headed higher that it's 5% and rising right uh more than double the 2% theoretical target yet we had a huge spike in unemployment claims for the week uh the biggest in like four years or the highest level now of weekly claims in four years and that's why the Dow's up more than 500 points is because oh this cementss the But because we've got this weak labor market and of course a weak labor market also means a weak economy and in fact uh the the years the year of jobs revisions that year it went from April 2024 to March of 2025. It turns out that the only jobs that got created during that year were government jobs and government related jobs like healthcare. So the private sector actually lost jobs the entire time they were talking about how strong the labor market was. We were losing private sector jobs. Those are the important jobs. Those are the ones that pay the bills. They pay the taxes that that that employ the government jobs. The government jobs are are a net drain on the economy. And and so if all we're creating is government jobs, that is a huge huge problem. uh if you think about the way if you think about what he's saying there folks I want to mention something because I want I want and tell me what you think basically the government jobs that are coming in the taxes that are paid on the let's let's even include social security for a minute let's include everything and let's go crazy let's say a government employee pays 50% taxes let's just say that just for the discussion okay you're paying x amount of dollars and only getting back 50%. Whereas a private payroll job, if it's the same exact circumstance, is paying 50% tax all in state, city, uh, federal, and social security, let's just say, right? And that's all coming into the coffers. Oh, yeah. Government employees don't really pay taxes. That that's that that's a fiction. If the if if I'm the government and I have an employee and I pay my employee $70,000 and then he pays 20,000 back to me in taxes, I didn't collect anything from that guy. I gave him 50,000. Exactly. Right. So it the so but the the way the reason that the government does it that way is so people don't think that these government workers are getting away without paying taxes. So hey look, we pay taxes just like everybody else. No, they don't. Government employees are tax takers. They're not taxpayers. They take they get money from the government. >> Yeah. >> But if you're in the private sector, you give money to the government, although you don't necessarily give it, they take it from you, but the government doesn't take anything from its own workers. It just reduces what it's giving them. >> Right. Right. It's a net net loss to them. A further net loss. >> Yeah. >> Further net loss. So the higher the government. So, it's interesting because if you look at the the the jobs numbers and you talk about how um it was only the pro the the government jobs that really made something and we lost all this other jobs along the way and there was a net loss of all these jobs throughout this. You know, is there something to blame on this is also a question. Is it a weak economy? You know, we see a lot of parts of the economy like the ISM manufacturing which has been in contraction territory for a long time. Services started finally coming down. And we see that the you know the various uh regional numbers are kind of okay but not and is there something else underfoot here? Is this the time that markets are getting it once again kind of a little bit right but wrong while they want the heroine of lower rates it can't go down that much considering all the inflation. Are we in a a time that is really an aha moment here Peter? >> Yeah. Well, I think there is a an aha moment. Only most people haven't said aha yet. But I think what is happening and what we're on the verge of is a major meltdown in in the dollar. And I think that's going to be precipitated by the loss of Fed independence, which, you know, the Fed has never really been that independent. I mean, everybody pretended it was, and it was that pretense that helped support the value of the dollar. But once you strip away that and expose the Fed for what it is, which is what the Trump administration is doing and what the Supreme Court may in fact uphold uh when they uphold his right to fire Lisa Baker, maybe on the grounds that uh a truly independent Fed is not constitutional and that the Fed must beholden to an elected representative or something like that like the president. Uh but I think uh confidence is going to be lost in the dollar. Uh it's already teetering on the brink based on the sanctions that happened under Biden, but now more threats of sanctions under Trump in particular through tariffs. So I think the sanctions and the tariffs are alienating uh our friends around the world and our trading partners. Uh you know, we're pushing our our adversaries closer together. Uh, I think this whole thing is going to backfire and we could see a precipitous drop in the dollar which will push up consumer prices to a astronomical heights. And I I think we're going to kick the the uh printing presses into overdrive and and that I is what gold is is already sensing. And you know, gold's going to be moving up uh even higher at a faster clip than it is now. I think by next year uh you'll see gold moving up more $100 and $200 a day. Not 20, 30, 40 or 50, but much bigger moves. I think you'll see bigger moves in silver uh as as the world just divests of dollars. But this is going to be a huge problem for America because we depend on the dollar's reserve status for pretty much everything that we consume. >> Right. What's interesting is this this this plays right into your playbook, Peter, because I I've known you a long time and you've always, as far as I remember, tell me if I'm wrong and just shoot me right down here, but you've always been pretty much like, hey, the dollar is uh vulnerable long term, right? And you know, I like gold, why it's an alternative to it. Uh we're going to get to Bitcoin in a second because I know a lot of people want to hear about your thoughts on that as well. This is actually uh over all the years that I've thought of this and I thought of your base thesis that I recall at least from all the times we've spoke and I've seen and I've heard and I've read your work is that this really looks like that the dollar is in trouble and and I want to hold that put a point just a paper clip in that for one second because I want to go back to something you said and I want to get some clarification from you and insights. The Fed independence issue is I think we both agree a big concern for the dollars worth. What is your opinion? But you've been critical about the Fed. What is your opinion about this whole thing? Forget about whether she has two mortgages or whatever the story is. Forget that. The Fed independence. >> The Fed independence. Look, >> I first of all, as I said, I don't think the Fed was ever really truly independent. I believe that they did work behind the scenes with government and and they tried to uh help the government. That's you know they they they monetized their debts and they didn't you know take the punch bowl away from the party like like they should have. Uh in fact in many cases they were the ones spiking the punch bowl keeping the party going. But at least it was kind of you know an unspoken thing. It was kind of behind the scenes and everybody pretended that that wasn't the case. But once you expose that and and and come clean, you know, I'm a big critic of the Fed. I mean, don't get me wrong, I I I think the Fed has done a horrible job, but I think that to the extent that you allow the president to call the shots that he'll do an even worse job. >> That happened to Turkey. >> Yes. >> How that How'd that work out? >> Not well. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, >> you know, but and the same thing with Congress. Look. Yeah. I I I'd like to get rid of the Fed and go back to the gold standard, but that's not going to happen. So, the choice is the devil we know and the devil we don't know. The devil we know is the Fed that we got. The devil we don't know is the one we're about to get when when it loses that independence. Yeah. >> And you know, it's now part of the Trump administration. >> Well, this this all played very very well for you though because you have the you know, Europe Pacific Asset Management. I know you have a lot of international overseas gold um non- US dollar denominated that has been in play hard this year. It's been wonderful. >> Look, gold stocks have already more than doubled on the year. Doubled, right? The best performing stock in the S&P 500 this year is Pneumont Mining. >> Is that right? Now, like you you wouldn't know that from listening to the mainstream media that is still fixated on the Mag Seven or stuff like that, >> but Gold Stocks, other than you know, maybe gambling on Fanny and Freddy and and and and hitting a home run because of uh the Trump administration uh you know, doing probably one of the worst things that it's going to do. And it's doing a lot of bad things, but the plan on Fanny and Freddy is is horrible. But this plan will help drive gold prices to 10,000 or higher. That's the type of inflationary reckless plan that undermines the economy and destroys the dollar. But uh people are not paying attention to the returns. And you know that's why you know people who were following my investment advice were lagging the S&P for years. And now we're catching up very quickly. As I said, you know, gold stocks are now beating the S&P for the last 10 years. You know, they're they're killing it over the last three years, but the S&P is still beating gold stocks over the past 20 years. But I think a year from now, that won't be the case. Let me give you a year from now, you can go back 20 years. But gold itself, gold is beating the S&P for 25 years. In fact, over the past 25 years, as I've been recommending gold, I was recommending it in 2000 2001. Since then, the US stock market has lost about 70% of its value if you price it in gold, >> right? >> Well, but we don't we don't we don't usually do that because we own dollars. But yes, >> yeah, that is a massive bare market. It's up. It's doubled in dollars, right? But who cares? The gold gold has gone up more than 10x, >> right? So the point would be so the point would be nothing else just uh have both. Let me tell you some numbers here. Earnings per share new pneumont it's called pneumont corporation now they sophisticated it. It's not called mining anymore. It's new corp any uh price to earnings 14.4 far lower than the S&P 22 forward right. You got um gross mar profit margin 57%, net profit margin 29%, return on equity 20%, stocks up 113% to a uh this year to a um a 52- week high right now. And its earnings and its revenue growth over the next few years are all estimated to be nicely higher and higher by you know four, five, six, 10% per year. Not a tech stock, but a but for what it is, for what it is, I agree with you. Some good quality stuff there. But it's only at 14 times earnings. Y >> and that's basically 14 times trailing earnings too because analysts assume that the price of gold is not going up. Yeah. >> But the price of gold is already much higher than it was when they earned their money over the last 12 months. So the stock is not really trading at 14 times earnings. It may be under 10 times earnings based on what it's actually going to earn. But if you want to know what it's priced at based on 2027 earnings, it could be five or six times earnings because gold prices aren't going to stop rising, >> especially if the dollar comes down. >> They're just going to keep earning more and more money on every ounce of gold they put out of the ground. >> And yeah, think of it like this, right? The the fact is people get all charged up and excited when Netflix says they're going to have a dollar increase per user spread across their total user base. And that means x amount of dollars more revenue to them which drops down to pretty much pure profit on the margin, right? Because you just add the price. That's the same thing you're talking about with gold. >> Yeah. But here's the difference, right? When you're a company like Netflix, as you raise your prices, you are going to eat into your business. I mean, some people are going to say, >> "I can't afford it." Right? So, as the price goes up, like if the if Netflix tries to double their prices, they're they're not going to double their revenue. there's going to be a number of customers who just quit, right? They're not going to pay the higher price. So, there's less demand for Netflix as you raise the price. >> With gold, it's actually the other way around. The higher the price, the more people want to buy it, >> right? Exactly. >> So, like if the price of gold doubles, not only does uh Numont's revenue double because they don't sell less gold because it's more expensive, they keep on buying it. They may even buy, but their their profits explode because their costs don't double, right? So, you're you're valuing Pneumont not based on its revenues, but based on its profits. So, if you double the revenue, you could quintuple the profits. >> Right. Right. Exactly. No, no, it's great. I like it. I like it. Listen, we're going to talk about I want to talk about um your your current outlook on the US economy. I we have to get to Bitcoin. I want to take a quick break. We'll come right back. All right. So, listen up. Let's talk about Interactive Brokers for a second here. Because at Interactive Brokers bond marketplace, you can access over 1 million global bonds, including global and corporate and municipal bonds, all in one place. That's really important. 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You're you're you're one of the things that one of the hats you wear uh of course is, you know, talking about pricing and and and expectations and climate management, but you also do uh a bit of a econ um u an economist, right? That I think that's that's that's something you enjoy doing. Am I right? >> Yeah. I mean, I'm a self-taught economist, although I did take some econ classes in in Berkeley, but I, you know, I I spent most of my time trying to correct the mistakes of my professors. So, I didn't I didn't really learn anything. I I tried to teach economics to my professors, but but although I wasn't completely self-taught because I learned from my father. >> Um, >> so let me ask you, let me ask you this. who was also self-taught because he had the same problem when he was in in college. His economics professors didn't know what they were talking about either. >> It's a genetic thing. Oh, here come Shiff again. Great. Right. So, here's a question. Uh, two questions. First, I have been a student of economics and would study charts and trends and look inside the numbers, break it down, and for a long time, early in my career, I thought that the economics were a major driver of the economy. I don't think anybody who started before let's say I'm just going to pick a pick a year the year 2000 before the year 2000 I think that was a very standard process right even if you were a bottoms up kind of person you'd still look at the top down economic condition of things and all that however over the last 5 years or so I have been like you know what some of this economic stuff is just not telling me anything about what's going to happen in the near term or the long term or I don't know the long term because I haven't it hasn't been long But it doesn't tell me what I need to know about the markets. What's different now? And or maybe tell me that I'm full of >> About what? I missed it. >> About whether or not the economics today are really important to the markets. Well, I look, they're important to me because I'm I'm a I'm a big macro guy and I can't help but view everything from that perspective and and and trying to invest for the endgame, not just trying to ride whatever wave of of momentum happens to capture the fancy of the public or even professional investors. Uh I think right now it's all just been about liquidity and the Fed and you know you know that just you know Tina like no alternative whatever they call that anacronism was uh there's no alternative and everybody just keeps piling in and it becomes a fel self-perpetuating uh situation where the more money chases a small number of stocks the better those stocks do and the better those stocks do the more money that wants to get in and and so it it kind of feeds on itself until eventually it implodes on itself. >> And we haven't gotten to that that point yet. But it seems like every time we do get to a point where the market's imploding, the Fed backs up the truck and, you know, cranks up the presses >> uh to bail it out. So, and I think most of the people who are managing larger pools of other people's money, you know, don't even understand economics. they they they they you know they they don't get it. They they you know and they've been living in this fantasy world of of monetary heroin for so long uh that they're you know they're just numb to it. They just don't don't know. And even a lot of Republicans, a lot of people have bought into the the MAGA nonsense like that stuff that Trump is saying. But none of this stuff is going to work. All this stuff is is going to backfire. It's it's you know it's it's it's throwing gasoline on on a fire. >> Yeah. No, I I hear you. So when it comes to the economy today, then where we are today looking forward with the information we know, are we talking about recession, stagflation, something else entirely? What what's going what what's the what's the near and midterm outlook? Well, you know, I do think it's uh stagflation, but I don't think it's going to be stagflation light. I hear a lot of people say, well, it's not going to be as bad as the 70s. I think they're wrong. I think it's going to be worse than the 70s. So, it's going to be stagflationheavy where it's not just a stagnant economy. We're going to be in a a a worse recession than the Great Recession that we had after the financial crisis. So, serious economic contraction, but we're going to have higher inflation than we had during the 70s. >> Really? >> So, when is that wait when is that projected? Because we just had a bout that was pretty ugly. Not terrible. Not 70s style, but it was enough to be like, "Oh, that didn't feel so good." >> No, it was 70s style. What are you talking about? I mean, like, >> well, it was a They didn't. >> Well, we got to 9% for one year. >> Yeah. >> But if we measured prices during that year, the way they measured them during the 70s, it would have been about 18%. >> You know, we don't have the same CPI that we had back then. >> Yeah. And you know, the highest inflation ever got back then was maybe 11 12% for one year. It didn't get much higher than the nine, but that was with a much more honest CPI. Uh so I think that right now, I mean, we're having pretty high inflation. As I said, that if you annualize the number that we just got today, that's 5% inflation, but that's probably 10% inflation if you had a more honest CPI. >> Yeah. I'm looking at a chart right now on a company called SA Shadow Stats which you probably are familiar with. Geese does great work. He's been on the show many times. Um and we're looking at um actually if you look back to 200 and oh this just goes back if I click this chart here but um you look back and you see that the the rate of inflation came down but we're still on the 1990based 1990 based which is obviously the alternative they have which is past the 1970s. Obviously, we're still at like 8% he's showing. >> Oh, yeah. >> That's That's pretty hot. >> Oh, yeah. And the Fed is talking about 2%. Like, oh yeah, we're just near 2%. They're they're not even in the ballpark at 2%. >> Yeah. So, it's pretty scary times. I I agree with that. And And it's funny because most people know it but don't want to admit it. Going out. Listen, I was I was in Seriously, I was I'm in Florida. We got fish everywhere down here, right? Local fish is mahi mahi. I went to a store here, a regular grocery store. I was just puttering around looking for something else. I happened upon the fishing fish area, you know, the fish uh uh it was $34 a pound for mahi mahi. That's not even funny. That's like a $45 $8 fish down here. >> $34. >> And they get Do you know Do you know 90% of our seafood is imported? >> Yeah. From >> You know, I mean, you'd figure with all these uh oceans and rivers and lakes, you figure we could catch our own fish. I've been out there. It's not so easy. But yeah, I get it. I get it. So, let's talk a little bit about something that I think is important because with all the things that are going on that could go wrong that could be beneficial for a while but then burst in in your opinion. Um, one of the things that's interesting is you have a much different opinion on something that is very near to dear to a lot of people and that is cryptocurrency and Bitcoin. I mean, you know, I got to ask that because I'm getting texts already from people that know you're coming on. It's like, hey, did you ask him? Did you ask him? Did you ask him? So the the question that keeps coming up, you know, is anything changed in your mind about Bitcoin? And by the way, to be totally upfront uh up front with you, I am not an advocate of Bitcoin as a gold alternative. Just to be clear, I think Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies or whatever you want to call them exactly are an interesting speculative asset. Have at it with you with that in mind. But you have been a critic and you even I said think I said once that you know Bitcoin is worthless which by the way from a fundamental value I think that is true but that it's going to go to zero. Tell me a little bit about where you are now. >> Yeah. Well it's funny because you started off the the conversation asking about me being a contrarian. >> Yeah. >> And so I'm even a contrarian in the Bitcoin world because the Bitcoiners think they're the contrarians, right? But I'm a contrarian to them. It's not. And you know, because I was at the Bitcoin conference, the last one in Las Vegas, there were 35,000 people in attendance and I was probably the only one who was anti- Bitcoin or, you know, negative on Bitcoin, but I was probably the most popular person there because everybody knew me and a lot of people, you know, credited me for buying Bitcoin. Now, I say they they'll eventually blame me for buying Bitcoin because they're going to end up end up losing money in it. But um yeah, look, I think Bitcoin is just another, you know, speculative bubble. I don't think there's any real value in in Bitcoin um or any of these other altcoins uh that that people gamble with. You're right. I mean, they are speculative tokens. And to the extent that there's a buyer there, uh then there's a market. And to the extent that the sellers um want to hold because they expect a moonshot, you know, Michael Sailor says Bitcoin is going to go to 10 million or 20 million and so never sell your Bitcoin. So if the people that own their Bitcoin don't want to get rid of it and more people want to buy, the price is going to go up. Yes, I mean that's going to happen. But the problem becomes when you run out of new buyers and the holders eventually want to sell whether they want to or whether they just need the money and then at some point the bottom drops out because there's nothing of real value there. It's all about the speculation. I'm buying Bitcoin because I believe I can sell it to somebody else at a higher price. Well, why is that person going to buy it? Well, because he has the same belief. Well, when you run out of greater fools, the the whole thing collapses. And you know, the Bitcoin uh community, especially the that, you know, the the OGs that the big guys that are, you know, have the big whale whale wallets, they've done a great job of promoting this thing. And then when they kind of ran out of uh suckers in the private market, they got Wall Street in on the game to come up with all these ETFs. And then when they started running out of demand there, they took over the Trump administration or first they got Trump elected and then >> they were definitely they were definitely helpful. They had some plenty of plenty of uh political money to spread around. Well, yeah, they the the the Bitcoin that was the largest donaires came from crypto. And now Trump has basically not only embraced the industry is it's now his family business. Uh they're all in on crypto. Uh his cabinet is all crypto. He's got a cryptozar. They've got a crypto bitcoin strategic reserve, a bitco strategic reserve. But here's the interesting thing. the high point for Bitcoin, four years ago, October of 2021, Bitcoin today is more than 15% lower than it was four years ago in gold >> in gold. Okay. >> So, in in in terms of gold and Bitcoin is presenting itself as the alternative to gold. It's digital gold, right? It's better than gold. You know, gold is the analog. Bitcoin, Bitcoin is digital, right? So, four years ago, over those four years, Bitcoin is down 15% in terms of gold. Now, what's happened over those four years? All the Bitcoin ETFs were launched. None of them existed four years ago. We had the entire uh NFT craze that that hadn't happened. You had El Salvador uh make it, you know, the official legal tender. You had Michael Sailor begin to buy tens of billions worth. Then you had all the copycat Bitcoin treasury companies who have been buying it up. Then you had the Trump administration, the Bitcoin presidents, all that. Despite all of that massive hype, Super Bowl ads, celebrity endorsements, all this stuff, Bitcoin's gone down. Yeah, it's gone up in dollars, but so is everything else, right? But in terms of real money, in terms of gold, you have been better off four years ago just putting it all in gold, >> right? So when you talk about the the let's I think it's important because I think some people have a hard would have a hard time wrapping themselves around this. When you keep talking about the idea this in terms of gold or in it's a relative discussion. You're saying when you say that you're saying that gold outperformed. Well, I'm saying, right, but Bitcoin went down priced in gold. If gold is real money, right? Yep. >> You can buy more Bitcoin with an ounce of gold today than you could four years ago. So, the price of gold in terms of Bitcoin has gone down. Now, the price of stocks have also gone down. The price of just about everything. But the point is, Bitcoin was hyped up as a alternative to gold in that it was going to be better, right? You should buy Bitcoin instead of gold. Well, if you did, you're worse off. You should have just bought gold. And you know, and and that's going to continue because I I look, I think the the bottom is going to drop out of this scheme. It's just a pyramid. It's a you know, it's a Ponzi. Uh gold is real. Gold is real money. Gold has actual value. Uh and and and so more people are going to figure that out. I think what helped power Bitcoin originally, the reason Bitcoin went from nothing to you know 50 60,000 70,000 that initial move is because gold went sideways uh from 2011 to 2024 the price of gold went sideways and so a lot of people got frustrated with gold uh they had expected it to go up and that kind of allowed an opening for Bitcoin uh to capture a lot of gold's you know thunder Because gold Bitcoin was going up while gold was going sideways. Well, gold's not going sideways anymore. Gold's going up. It's going up more than Bitcoin. And so now I think a lot of that frustrated money that went into Bitcoin and left gold is going to go back to gold. The problem is it's going to be very hard to get it out of Bitcoin because there's not a lot of buyers there. >> Yeah. One one thing you have to admit I think you have to admit is and and and you're making the case to yourself that the Bitcoin marketing slashdevelopment megaphone is pretty darn powerful and they have really created a really cool mousetrap to promote it. There's nothing like that in the gold industry. Let's be honest. No, because you know there's not as much money to be made promoting gold. I mean I know I sell gold shift gold. We we don't make very much money when you buy gold from us. We make like 1%. It's not a big markup. Now, there are some gold companies that rip people off and they charge 40 50% for crap coins. Yes. But, you know, in the scheme of things, there's that's not that much money because it's not a big sector. There's so much that's being made in crypto because you make these crypto tokens for nothing and then you sell them for a lot of money. Um, so there are a lot of people who are getting rich on crypto, but they're getting rich because other people are dumb enough to buy it. That's why they're getting rich. They, you know, they're not creating any value. They're not producing any wealth. They're just sucking money away from other people. Now, a lot of people have lost money in Bitcoin. They just don't know it yet because they haven't sold, right? So, they think they've made money because they have these tokens and on paper they have a certain value, >> but they're not selling. >> So, they haven't really made anything. But when they try to sell and so does everybody else, >> the the price collapses and then they realize how much money they lost. >> You're talking about a big rug pull is what you're talking about. and the fact that all of a sudden everybody wants to sell it cascades and there's not the liquidity out there that that that that potentially could be. I want to ask you a question about >> and this is a giant look this is a giant pump and dump and now the pumpers are the Trump administration. The US government is pumping up Bitcoin so Trump's friends can unload their Bitcoin on on the public. >> And they're doing a hell of a job of it, aren't they? >> Well, they've done a pretty damn good job. >> Really good. There's so much selling that the price hasn't gone up. I mean, Bitcoin is what 100 what is it? 112,000. >> Right around there. >> Yeah. I mean, but it was the same price three months ago. >> Yep. Let me ask you uh one question. Pick your brain about something since you know about gold coins. I happen to own a bunch of gold coins. Um I have uh 1982 to 1988 uh China pandas. Perfect condition. Good stuff. Well, I mean, I don't know if there's any collector value there, but I mean, if they're made of gold and they're 1 oz coins, they're they're worth their weight in gold. >> Yeah, exactly. There you go. There you go. Talk to me about Austrian economics. Explain what it is really quickly and why you're a big advocate. >> Well, as far as I'm concerned, Austrian economics is economics. I mean, it's like, you know, what's the difference between astronomy and astrology? Well, astronomy is an actual science. Astrology is just a bunch of BS, right? >> Okay. uh and so the economics that most people believe in whether it's Keynesian uh you know supply side monitorists whatever I think there those that's the equivalent of astrology especially Keynesianism but Austrian economics is really rooted in um in in true economics um in um you know the wealth of nations Adam Smith and then expanded by by by Mices. Um, but Austrian economics is what allowed me to know that the 2008 financial crisis was coming. It it allows me to understand the unintended consequences of government policies that catch everybody by surprise. You know, when we had the 2008 financial crisis, the idea was that it was some kind of black swan that nobody could have saw coming. when it was something that was so obvious, I saw it from a mile away because I was looking at it from the the prism of the Austrian school, but they weren't. And so all this stuff that happens that surprises people, it's because they don't really understand economics. If they understood it, they wouldn't be surprised when the obvious happens. But it's not obvious if you don't understand it. >> Yeah. No, I get that. I get that entirely. It's funny because >> and and and and the Austrian school does understand the business cycle and and how governments uh cause it, but also the Austrian school understands that the problem of the business cycle is during the boom when everybody else is happy. That's when the problems occur. That's when the mistakes are made. >> Well, the excess recession, >> right? the recession is from the Austrian perspective. That's the good thing. That's when the mistakes are corrected, right? That's when, you know, you pay the piper and and and and fix the mistakes and and lay the foundation for uh a real economic growth. But the Keynesian theory and the modern theory is that we should try to perpetuate the booms as long as possible and mitigate the busts, which is the worst thing you could do because you what you're doing is you're causing the disease and then you're preventing the cure by by by giving the patient more of the disease. >> Right? This is the old forest burning and not growing and not allowing it to burn down. You know, with that in mind, there's been some discussion that the the the traditional economic cycle trroth peak, you know, back around uh and all that, the whole um psychology behind it is dead. The Fed is not going to let it happen, right? No matter what happens, they're going to adjust and they're going to come in. They're going to provide more monetary policy, stimulus through some mechanism or another. Never let anything go down. like they didn't let, for example, in the latest banking situation, you know, the Signature Banks, all those guys really didn't let anybody fail during that. What did they do? Well, the banks loaded up on all this debt that was long-term and they just kept it on their books and all of a sudden the valuations of the banks assets went down precipitously as interest rates came up and the Fed came in and said, "Don't worry about it. We guarantee we'll buy it back for full price from you right now." And making a satisfaction of the books and records that they required. So if in fact if in fact I'm throwing this out there not saying it's absolutely correct, but if in fact the economic cycle is dead, does that really create even a bigger problem long term? Well, yeah. I mean, I I I I think that the the problem is going to come in this cycle. This is, I think, going to be the equivalent of the monetary overdose >> because the Trump administration and and and the Fed are going to be under the impression that if they just do what they did before, they'll get the same result. you know, and I'm talking about the monetary and fiscal policy that we had after the stock market crash uh in well, the the big tech bubble burst in 2001, 2002, the stock market or financial crisis of 2008, the COVID crisis of 2020. Uh they're going to do the exact same thing that they did then. They're going to slash interest rates and print a bunch of money. But given where we are right now, I don't believe we're going to get high uh like we did before. I think we're going to OD. And that means that the dollar is going to collapse because this time, the fourth time will not be the charm. The fourth time, the world does not want our dollars. they're already selling them. They're already buying gold. Um and and so the dollar is going to fall uh rather precipitously and that is going to put upward pressure on interest rates and and so and consumer prices. So that's why this recession is going to be so much worse than the prior recessions because it's going to be accompanied by higher interest rates and much higher consumer prices. And so the the the way the Fed has been able to stimulate the economy is its ability to lower rates without crashing the dollar. >> Mhm. >> But once it can't do that anymore, then the cure actually or the stimulus becomes a sedative. the more they try to stimulate the economy with cheap money, the more they end up sedating it. So, the Fed is actually going to harm the economy that's trying to help. Now, of course, it was always doing long-term harm. That was why I was opposed it, but at least it it, you know, it helped in the short run, right? But now, it's not even going to help in the short run. It's it's going to it's going to hurt in the short run and the long run. >> Yeah. So, so let me let me try to encapsulate this for you and tell me what you think. We have monetary heroin that keeps on being pumped in the system for many years on and off. This time it's going to be a monetary overdose, but this time there's no monetary narcine. >> Is that basically >> is that basically the point? >> Yes. How long do we have to go? >> I don't know. >> Well, that's the Well, come on. We need to know that answer. >> I mean, >> that that I can't I can't tell you. But I look the the fuse is a lot shorter than it was. I you know how how long. But look look at what's going on with gold. You know that tells you that you know time is running out. Um I think when the Fed cuts rates um you know next week I think is that's when they're supposed to meet right now. Is it next week? >> 16th. Yeah. >> 17th something like that. If the bond market really gets a hit, takes a hit on that rate cut, that could be a sign that, you know, it's going to it's coming. >> Yeah. >> Um and and look at the dollar. I mean, look where the, you know, where the, you know, watch for a bigger crack in the dollar. I mean, the dollar's down on the year quite a bit, but it's still, it's been hanging out these last few months. It hasn't really made new lows. Hasn't recovered, but it hasn't made new lows. But if we start to see the dollar hitting fresh lows, uh the bond market going down, long-term rates rising, and gold continuing to spike, you know, that's a pretty good sign that we're running out of time. >> Yeah, I hear you. Speaking about running out of time, thank you, Peter Schiff, Europe, Pacific Capital and Asset Management and uh gold and we're going to have all the information on where people can get to you, but you can tell me also over on uh the show notes for episode number 938. How do people see you, watch you, hear you, get you, all that? Well, first of all, shift gold. If you want to buy some gold and silver, which I would recommend, I mean, if you don't own any, you need to own it. Uh, at least 5 10% of your, you know, overall uh, you know, portfolio should have physical gold and silver, uh, and and take custody of it, you know, have it with you, uh, and so we can deliver it to to you at Shift Gold. So, just go to shift gold.com and you can either load up your shopping cart or you can talk to one of my representatives that will help you pick out what what what to buy and nobody will pressure you and no one will bait and switch you into these overpriced coins because we don't sell them. We we just sell the real stuff >> um then um I mentioned gold stocks. Even though they've more than doubled this year, they are still very cheap. Um, I think they could double again uh next year, maybe triple next year, even though they've already doubled. I mean, the thing is, nobody even talks about them. Nobody's buying these stocks. Nobody owns these stocks. They're completely off of everybody's radar. >> It's not sexy. It's not sexy. Let's be honest. >> Well, you may think it's sexy. It's sexy to you. But yeah, but a lot of people don't. >> You know, you know, I got a gold fund, the Europacific Gold Fund. EPIGX is the no load symbol. You could buy my fund anywhere on uh any discount broker. What makes my fund so valuable right now is we have a lot of private placements that are not being counted in our value. And so as the market's gone up this year, we've lagged performance-wise >> because we have all these stocks that haven't gone up, but they've actually gone up. It's we just can't price them. But when these companies go public, all of a sudden it's going to be a big deal. But we've got a great portfolio. I think people are going to make a ton of money uh in these stocks. Yeah, there's risk, but relative to the potential, I don't think you can beat it anywhere else in the market. So, if you're willing to take a risk, I think for my money, and my money is pretty much a lot in gold stocks, that's where you you want to go. But we have we have broad portfolios. You know, my dividend payer strategy, get this, I have a mutual fund that just invests in foreign dividend paying stocks. It's up over 42% this year. >> Yeah. >> This year. >> Yeah. >> Utilities, real estate trusts, uh, pharmaceutical companies, tobacco companies, food and beverage companies, right? Basic companies that pay dividends 42%. So, this is what's going on. People are pulling their money out of the US market and investing internationally. This is a trend that I believe is going to continue for many, many years, and it's still early. So, if you want to get information on all of our strategies, all of our funds, uh, transfer an account over to us, uh, you can go to my website at europac.com, europac.com. Uh, I also put out a newsletter, a free newsletter. You can subscribe to that at shiftsvereign.com. Two or three uh, uh, emails per week will arrive in your in your inbox. They're free, right? And there's a lot of good insight in there. And if you want to listen to me, you know, I do the Peter Schiff show podcast uh at least once a week, sometimes twice depending on, you know, what's going on and how much time I have. But you can listen to it on my YouTube channel, Peter Schiff, also on shiftradio.com or anywhere they have podcasts. Um I'm going to be doing another one, I think, uh tonight, I think. Um and and then follow me on social media. I mean, I'm on uh Facebook, I'm on um YouTube, I said. I'm on um uh Instagram, Tik Tok, but you know where I spend the most time is on X. That's where I've got almost 1.2 million followers. So X, you definitely got to follow me there because I'm constantly putting my thoughts out real time. Nobody does that for me. I I do them all. I write them all myself. So when you're following me on X, you're following me. >> Love it. Love it. Love it. Love it. Hey, thanks for coming on. We'll get uh do this again one day real soon. When you're down in When you're down in Fort Lauderdale, let's have a drink. >> Yeah. You know, we were What was I was there not that long ago. My next trip to Florida is Orlando coming up uh next month. >> All right. Very good. A little bit far from me, but we'll do it. I'll see you soon, buddy. Thanks. >> All right. Take care. >> Thanks. >> That was pretty intense. I loved it. Talked about a lot of things all the way from uh monetary heroin to Bitcoin going to zero. We talked about Australia, Austrian economics. We talked about uh US dollar teetering. We talked about uh everything that's going on in the economy. So, what else can you ask for in this? Right. Thanks for joining me this week. Next week turns out it's going to be a great week. Great people coming aboard over the next I have some great guests. Don't forget to listen to DH unplugged as well. And make sure to visit the site where you find everything you need to know about us over on the disciplinedinvestor.com. Thanks for joining me again. I'll see you again real soon. This podcast is intended forformational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principle and past performance is not indicative of future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of the host and any guests and may not necessarily reflect those of Horowits and Company, Inc., an investment adviser registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of training or skill. Advisory services are only offered to a client or prospective clients where Horowits a company is properly registered or is excluded from registration requirements. Any mention of thirdparty companies, products, or services is provided forformational purposes only and does not constitute an endorsement. Hypothetical scenarios or forward-looking statements are for illustrated purposes and should not be viewed as guarantees. Content is intended for US residents only and may not be applicable in other jurisdictions. Listeners should consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Please visit our website for additional information, disclosures, as well as a copy of our form CS. Advertisements are not related to the host or affiliates and are not considered recommendations by the host of the show or any affiliates of Hollywood. [Music]
TDI Podcast: Schiff – Monetary Overdose (#938)
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This episode of the discipline investor is brought to you by Interactive Brokers. And Interactive Brokers has key competitive advantages for sophisticated investors just like you. IBKR's margin loan rates are from just 4.83% to 5.83%. In fact, IBKR was rated one of the lowest margin fees by stockbrokers.com. Compare IBKR's client low margin borrowing cost to other brokers like Well, Schwab or Erade, Fidelity, maybe even Vanguard, who charge hundreds of basis points above IBKR's low rates. Gain access to over 150 global markets for stocks and options, futures, currencies, bonds, and funds with low commissions, all from a single screen. The best informed investors choose Interactive Brokers. Of course, margin is only for experienced investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment. Rates, of course, are subject to change as well. Get started today at ibkr.com/compare. Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC. The disciplined investor is all about you, your money, and the markets. Sit back and get ready for this edition of the disciplined investor podcast. This episode of The Discipline Investor is sponsored by Horowits & Company. If you're looking for a portfolio manager, look no further. Horowits & Company. From seed through harvest, cultivating financial success. [Music] [Applause] Inflation is up and it's down. We have revisions and a weakening job market. And the 10-year Treasury Tines are baked below well 4%. and a new top dog is crowned. Our guest is Peter Schiff from Europacific Capital. All this and much more on episode number 938 of the Disciplined Investor podcast. [Music] Hey, welcome to the new highs, lower rates, and the hope that a rate cut, well, it's not going to spark further continuation of inflation trends. Andrew Horowitz here, and it's a great time to be a stock, isn't it? Or a bond. Well, I guess also real estate. Well, gold, too. Silver, not oil. Yeah, international, actually. Good time for that. not domestic small caps, but you get the idea. It's pretty much been a rally of unprecedented strength, particularly once again in the large cap growth area. The tech guys, you know the names. You know all the names. I'm not going to mention them to you because you know them all. The fact is that we've seen a really beautiful rally. all-time highs in the NASDAQ, S&P 500. A few of the indices are trailing a bit, but nonetheless, they're all picking up steam because the idea is they're firmly implanted in the psyche of investors that you know what's going to happen? Well, we're going to see lower interest rates when the Fed comes to the foreign next week. Lots of money seems to be swashing around. IPOs are hot right now. There's money to be made. People are really excited. And it's exactly what we saw with Larry Ellison this week. Talking about money being made, he made a bucket full of it. In fact, he became the richest man man in the world this week. He became the richest man in the world this week. Surpassing. Who would have thought Elon Musk with the amount of money that he has? And I can tell you that I go back a long time knowing who Larry Ellison is in the early days of Oracle in the 80s and 90s particularly the 90s particularly then again in 2000s when Larry Ellison was always challenging the other tech bros right the early days we had the big guys right in fact it was pretty intense it was decadesl long rivalries between Ellison and Bill Gates And it I would say pretty much there were others too, but those two I could it sticks in my head. I remember very distinctly who was going to beat the other. That was definitely a definition of who they were in the early days, a competition. But the fight for the richest person, that was a later development. It was really going to be who was going to be the tech dominant guy. Who's going to be the the guy that's going to win? And and clearly between the two, Larry Ellison, the cool guy, right? the cool dude and the nerd with Bill Gates. Let's take out Bomber. Let's take out all the other names, right? Steve Jobs was really in a sphere of his own. Both of these names, Gates and Ellison, became incredibly prominent figures back in the what was the I guess starting in the 80s and 90s. And then it was like, well, that was that. Gates started making money like crazy and Ellison was kind of left in the dust. Now Ellison's 81 years old. He's 81 years old. And here's what happened this week. Oracle announced their earnings, which by the way missed estimates. It wasn't a great earnings number for the quarter. However, they came in with mindblowing eyepopping crazy numbers in terms of their revenue growth. They had contracts from OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon and others that were projecting earnings for them. the revenues, the revenues, not earnings, but the revenues from multi-year like quadrupling going from like 17 billion to 44 billion to like 79 billion then to like 130 the 145 years going from 18 up to like 145 billion of crow cloud revenue. Unbelievable stock up 35% on the day. Full disclosure, good news. Our clients held that in the managed growth strategy. That was a core position of ours. That was great. But now Larry is the world's richest person. In fact, hold on to your seats because he made $und00 billion on Wednesday. 100 billion. These are numbers that governments talk about and not all governments. We're talking about pretty much the United States, maybe not even Japan. United States talks those kind of numbers. 81 years old, going strong, owns 41% of the company still. He stepped down as a CEO back in uh I think it was I think it was 2015 2014 I believe it was but he remained on as the chairman executive chairman and the uh chief technology CTO. So that's impressive. Let's take a moment before we get to uh the things that are going to happen. Our guest talk about the uh the economy. Let's I I the elephant in the room is the 900,000 revision downward for jobs that comes after the latest 4.3% print of the unemployment rate. And it's hard to know whether this revision, by the way, is going to impact that 4.3% rate. I don't know. Uh is that included already? Is it that a different deal? Yes, it's a different methodology and and way of calculating, but even with the CPI ticking a bit hotter, PPI a little bit softer, the markets are betting the Fed is like, you know what, forget about inflation. Look at the numbers over here. Look at the fact that we've increased the unemployment rate. Look at the fact that the initial claims are 263 versus 236 last week. Let's look at the fact that 900,000 people really are not working and never have been for the last year. So that's going to be pretty important. I think these are topics that we're going to really dig into during this interview with our guest today, Peter Schiff. Let me tell you a little bit about who Peter Schiff is. I think that's kind of important to discuss. Uh he began his investment career as a financial consultant with Sheer Leman Brothers. You remember that name after having earned a degree in finance and accounting from UC Berkeley in 87. A financial planning professional for over 30 years. He's the owner of Europe Pacific Asset Management. He's a chief economist and global strategist at Europe Pacific Capital uh a division of Alliance Capital and chairman of Shift Gold. Uh he's a highly recommended broker by many leading financial institutions, newsletters and advisory services. And um one of the biggest things that he did to reach notoriety was in 2008 being one of the few economists who have had accurately forecasted the financial crisis well in advance. So, he's authored several bestselling selling books including Crash Proof, Crash Proof 2.0, How the Economy Grows and Why It Crashes, and the Little Book of Bull Moves. So, let's get right to the discussion with uh the economic adviser for the 2008 Ron Paul presidential campaign, Peter Schiff. So, Peter Schiff, welcome aboard. Thanks for joining me again. >> Oh, happy to be aboard. Happy to be aboard. >> It's been a couple of three years. years. I think the last time you on was in 2002 22, but you've been going back I think we date back to like uh 201 like 11 you and I was the first time you were on the show. >> Oh, really? Yeah. I was all right. So 14 years ago. >> Yeah, it was a while. So it was great. >> Yeah. That the last time then 2011 was the last time the price of silver was as high as it is today. >> I remember that. Dicky, every time everybody every time somebody says the the the price of silver, I say Dicki. Why? Back in those days, I was act of mine and there's a guy that was visiting next door. His name was Dicki. And he was telling us about all this silver that he owned that he had for years and years and years and that he was never selling. And we're like, Dicki, just take a little off the table. It was like 45 whatever it was at the time back then, whatever. >> Remember that? >> It's finally back up to just It's almost 42 now. But of course, gold, gold is uh 36.50. So gold, you know, back then, you know, the gold was about half the price it is right now, >> right? But I actually >> gold's double, but silver's kind of gone sideways, but I think that's going to change. I think silver's, you know, silver's uh going to going to kick in here. >> We'll talk about that. I actually bought some silver recently. I bought 10 bars from Costco. >> Oh, well, you should have bought them from Shift Gold. >> Well, that's true. >> Shift Gold and Silver. We could talk about that. Let's go back to the beginning here. I want to talk about um some of the things in your professional. I want to set the stage for people that maybe haven't heard you, although there's not that many out there that haven't cuz you're pretty popular. Um but also go back to some basics and then kind of build this up. The um you know, you're a contrarian voice. You are oftentimes a contrarian voice in finance. I want to know just how do you handle that? How do you deal with that? Well, I mean, that's just kind of the role that I've played um for a long time. You know, even within the Republican party, I remember I was a big contrarian during the Bush years. I'm talking about uh George W. Bush. Those were the years that led to the 2008 financial crisis. And I was I was highly critical of uh the policies of both the Bush administration and the Fed at the time and forecast that they would lead to the uh to you know the financial crisis which which which ultimately happened. And now I'm playing the same role again. I think the Trump Republican party is actually much worse uh than Bush as far as uh the reckless nature of their fiscal policy and some of the other policies that they have. And I think the Fed is about to make even more mistakes now than Greenspan did then. And and so I think the toxic combination of inflationary, monetary, and fiscal policy is going to do a lot more damage to the economy this time than than last. And of course, you know, we did a lot of damage last time. So you only imagine how much worse it's going to be now. So, but you know comes with this these days in the early days of you talking about some of this stuff. I remember back in before and during the financial crisis, you were very vocal and very critical and all that, but it was kind of like one thing because not a lot of people had a voice. These days, everybody with social media can be their own podcaster, their own blogger, their own micro blogger, Instagrammer, Tik Tocker, and just all over everybody else, right? How seriously, how do But how do you deal with that? >> It happens. I mean, it happens. It's a it's a marketplace of ideas, you know, so a lot of people can get out there and and and you know, speak their mind, which is great. A lot of people say a lot of foolish things. Uh but there are other people that say pretty smart things, but you know, the public could vote and decide who they want to pay attention to. And I think, you know, my track record, um, you know, I I'd put that up against anybody as far as forecasting is concerned. In fact, you know, one of the most recent uh news items that came out was uh earlier in the week, the government came out, I think it was Tuesday, and they they revised down a year's worth of jobs reports by another 900,000. >> Yeah. >> And that's on top of some other revisions. But if you go back to the actual days where those jobs numbers were released that were better than estimates and you look at how they were reported in the mainstream media, financial television, you look at what uh you know the Biden administration said about them. Uh the Federal Reserve, everybody was you know bragging about how great these numbers were and how resilient the economy was and how strong the labor market was. And every single Friday of the first Friday of every month when those reports came out, I did a podcast. And on every podcast, I said, "These numbers are Don't believe them. They're going to get revised lower. We don't have a strong labor market. We have a weak labor market. The statistics are just not picking up the weakness." And I said that every month. We now know that um 10 of those 12 months ended up being misses. big misses and and and seven of them which they were originally reporting as beats, all seven were misses, right? They were celebrating them. They were great. And for all I know, there's even more revisions to come. Uh so, you know, people were able to get the truth about the uh the markets from me. They didn't get it from the mainstream media. And by the way, gold stocks are now up so much, not even counting today's gain, but the 10-year return on the Gold Stock index, the GDX, is now substantially ahead of the 10-year return on the S&P. So, people who bought gold stocks 10 years ago, uh, have gotten a better compounded return uh than people who bought the S&P. And, and gold stocks are still cheap, whereas the S&P is very expensive. You know, it's interesting because it's funny you talk about how the economic numbers and the estimates were wrong or incorrect or overdone or something was wrong. Whatever it was was wrong and um whether again whether it's the methodology or whether it's the something else, but I'm I'm going with methodology and the process, that's what I'm going with. Um, and it's funny because as you mentioned th those particular numbers along the way were celebrated like look how great the economy is, look how many jobs we're adding, things are really good and then the markets were to react positively. Now on the back end of this where we have a revision of 900 plus thousand over last year and we saw that initial claims popped a little bit uh last week to 263 versus the 220 range has been or so and the unemployment raise at 4.3%. What's interesting to note is it was celebrated again. And it's like good news is celebrated, bad news celebrated. It doesn't really matter in a way in a very twisted way. I could imagine you could write a little bit of a conspiracy thesis on how this was masterfully tied together in such a way that it put a carrot out there on a continual basis just enough to keep people interested that things were good and when it got bad that the Fed would come to the rescue. I'm not going as far as that, but is it possible? >> Well, yeah. I mean, look, the markets still are looking for bad news because they want the Fed to cut. That is the the economic or monetary heroin that that that they need. And so, anything that makes the Fed cut rates is is bullish for the stock market, unfortunately. And that that's what happened today. You know, we got I thought bad news on the CPI. the CPI was up more than they thought of point4 and if you annualize it that's 5% inflation >> but of course you know it's headed higher that it's 5% and rising right uh more than double the 2% theoretical target yet we had a huge spike in unemployment claims for the week uh the biggest in like four years or the highest level now of weekly claims in four years and that's why the Dow's up more than 500 points is because oh this cementss the But because we've got this weak labor market and of course a weak labor market also means a weak economy and in fact uh the the years the year of jobs revisions that year it went from April 2024 to March of 2025. It turns out that the only jobs that got created during that year were government jobs and government related jobs like healthcare. So the private sector actually lost jobs the entire time they were talking about how strong the labor market was. We were losing private sector jobs. Those are the important jobs. Those are the ones that pay the bills. They pay the taxes that that that employ the government jobs. The government jobs are are a net drain on the economy. And and so if all we're creating is government jobs, that is a huge huge problem. uh if you think about the way if you think about what he's saying there folks I want to mention something because I want I want and tell me what you think basically the government jobs that are coming in the taxes that are paid on the let's let's even include social security for a minute let's include everything and let's go crazy let's say a government employee pays 50% taxes let's just say that just for the discussion okay you're paying x amount of dollars and only getting back 50%. Whereas a private payroll job, if it's the same exact circumstance, is paying 50% tax all in state, city, uh, federal, and social security, let's just say, right? And that's all coming into the coffers. Oh, yeah. Government employees don't really pay taxes. That that's that that's a fiction. If the if if I'm the government and I have an employee and I pay my employee $70,000 and then he pays 20,000 back to me in taxes, I didn't collect anything from that guy. I gave him 50,000. Exactly. Right. So it the so but the the way the reason that the government does it that way is so people don't think that these government workers are getting away without paying taxes. So hey look, we pay taxes just like everybody else. No, they don't. Government employees are tax takers. They're not taxpayers. They take they get money from the government. >> Yeah. >> But if you're in the private sector, you give money to the government, although you don't necessarily give it, they take it from you, but the government doesn't take anything from its own workers. It just reduces what it's giving them. >> Right. Right. It's a net net loss to them. A further net loss. >> Yeah. >> Further net loss. So the higher the government. So, it's interesting because if you look at the the the jobs numbers and you talk about how um it was only the pro the the government jobs that really made something and we lost all this other jobs along the way and there was a net loss of all these jobs throughout this. You know, is there something to blame on this is also a question. Is it a weak economy? You know, we see a lot of parts of the economy like the ISM manufacturing which has been in contraction territory for a long time. Services started finally coming down. And we see that the you know the various uh regional numbers are kind of okay but not and is there something else underfoot here? Is this the time that markets are getting it once again kind of a little bit right but wrong while they want the heroine of lower rates it can't go down that much considering all the inflation. Are we in a a time that is really an aha moment here Peter? >> Yeah. Well, I think there is a an aha moment. Only most people haven't said aha yet. But I think what is happening and what we're on the verge of is a major meltdown in in the dollar. And I think that's going to be precipitated by the loss of Fed independence, which, you know, the Fed has never really been that independent. I mean, everybody pretended it was, and it was that pretense that helped support the value of the dollar. But once you strip away that and expose the Fed for what it is, which is what the Trump administration is doing and what the Supreme Court may in fact uphold uh when they uphold his right to fire Lisa Baker, maybe on the grounds that uh a truly independent Fed is not constitutional and that the Fed must beholden to an elected representative or something like that like the president. Uh but I think uh confidence is going to be lost in the dollar. Uh it's already teetering on the brink based on the sanctions that happened under Biden, but now more threats of sanctions under Trump in particular through tariffs. So I think the sanctions and the tariffs are alienating uh our friends around the world and our trading partners. Uh you know, we're pushing our our adversaries closer together. Uh, I think this whole thing is going to backfire and we could see a precipitous drop in the dollar which will push up consumer prices to a astronomical heights. And I I think we're going to kick the the uh printing presses into overdrive and and that I is what gold is is already sensing. And you know, gold's going to be moving up uh even higher at a faster clip than it is now. I think by next year uh you'll see gold moving up more $100 and $200 a day. Not 20, 30, 40 or 50, but much bigger moves. I think you'll see bigger moves in silver uh as as the world just divests of dollars. But this is going to be a huge problem for America because we depend on the dollar's reserve status for pretty much everything that we consume. >> Right. What's interesting is this this this plays right into your playbook, Peter, because I I've known you a long time and you've always, as far as I remember, tell me if I'm wrong and just shoot me right down here, but you've always been pretty much like, hey, the dollar is uh vulnerable long term, right? And you know, I like gold, why it's an alternative to it. Uh we're going to get to Bitcoin in a second because I know a lot of people want to hear about your thoughts on that as well. This is actually uh over all the years that I've thought of this and I thought of your base thesis that I recall at least from all the times we've spoke and I've seen and I've heard and I've read your work is that this really looks like that the dollar is in trouble and and I want to hold that put a point just a paper clip in that for one second because I want to go back to something you said and I want to get some clarification from you and insights. The Fed independence issue is I think we both agree a big concern for the dollars worth. What is your opinion? But you've been critical about the Fed. What is your opinion about this whole thing? Forget about whether she has two mortgages or whatever the story is. Forget that. The Fed independence. >> The Fed independence. Look, >> I first of all, as I said, I don't think the Fed was ever really truly independent. I believe that they did work behind the scenes with government and and they tried to uh help the government. That's you know they they they monetized their debts and they didn't you know take the punch bowl away from the party like like they should have. Uh in fact in many cases they were the ones spiking the punch bowl keeping the party going. But at least it was kind of you know an unspoken thing. It was kind of behind the scenes and everybody pretended that that wasn't the case. But once you expose that and and and come clean, you know, I'm a big critic of the Fed. I mean, don't get me wrong, I I I think the Fed has done a horrible job, but I think that to the extent that you allow the president to call the shots that he'll do an even worse job. >> That happened to Turkey. >> Yes. >> How that How'd that work out? >> Not well. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, >> you know, but and the same thing with Congress. Look. Yeah. I I I'd like to get rid of the Fed and go back to the gold standard, but that's not going to happen. So, the choice is the devil we know and the devil we don't know. The devil we know is the Fed that we got. The devil we don't know is the one we're about to get when when it loses that independence. Yeah. >> And you know, it's now part of the Trump administration. >> Well, this this all played very very well for you though because you have the you know, Europe Pacific Asset Management. I know you have a lot of international overseas gold um non- US dollar denominated that has been in play hard this year. It's been wonderful. >> Look, gold stocks have already more than doubled on the year. Doubled, right? The best performing stock in the S&P 500 this year is Pneumont Mining. >> Is that right? Now, like you you wouldn't know that from listening to the mainstream media that is still fixated on the Mag Seven or stuff like that, >> but Gold Stocks, other than you know, maybe gambling on Fanny and Freddy and and and and hitting a home run because of uh the Trump administration uh you know, doing probably one of the worst things that it's going to do. And it's doing a lot of bad things, but the plan on Fanny and Freddy is is horrible. But this plan will help drive gold prices to 10,000 or higher. That's the type of inflationary reckless plan that undermines the economy and destroys the dollar. But uh people are not paying attention to the returns. And you know that's why you know people who were following my investment advice were lagging the S&P for years. And now we're catching up very quickly. As I said, you know, gold stocks are now beating the S&P for the last 10 years. You know, they're they're killing it over the last three years, but the S&P is still beating gold stocks over the past 20 years. But I think a year from now, that won't be the case. Let me give you a year from now, you can go back 20 years. But gold itself, gold is beating the S&P for 25 years. In fact, over the past 25 years, as I've been recommending gold, I was recommending it in 2000 2001. Since then, the US stock market has lost about 70% of its value if you price it in gold, >> right? >> Well, but we don't we don't we don't usually do that because we own dollars. But yes, >> yeah, that is a massive bare market. It's up. It's doubled in dollars, right? But who cares? The gold gold has gone up more than 10x, >> right? So the point would be so the point would be nothing else just uh have both. Let me tell you some numbers here. Earnings per share new pneumont it's called pneumont corporation now they sophisticated it. It's not called mining anymore. It's new corp any uh price to earnings 14.4 far lower than the S&P 22 forward right. You got um gross mar profit margin 57%, net profit margin 29%, return on equity 20%, stocks up 113% to a uh this year to a um a 52- week high right now. And its earnings and its revenue growth over the next few years are all estimated to be nicely higher and higher by you know four, five, six, 10% per year. Not a tech stock, but a but for what it is, for what it is, I agree with you. Some good quality stuff there. But it's only at 14 times earnings. Y >> and that's basically 14 times trailing earnings too because analysts assume that the price of gold is not going up. Yeah. >> But the price of gold is already much higher than it was when they earned their money over the last 12 months. So the stock is not really trading at 14 times earnings. It may be under 10 times earnings based on what it's actually going to earn. But if you want to know what it's priced at based on 2027 earnings, it could be five or six times earnings because gold prices aren't going to stop rising, >> especially if the dollar comes down. >> They're just going to keep earning more and more money on every ounce of gold they put out of the ground. >> And yeah, think of it like this, right? The the fact is people get all charged up and excited when Netflix says they're going to have a dollar increase per user spread across their total user base. And that means x amount of dollars more revenue to them which drops down to pretty much pure profit on the margin, right? Because you just add the price. That's the same thing you're talking about with gold. >> Yeah. But here's the difference, right? When you're a company like Netflix, as you raise your prices, you are going to eat into your business. I mean, some people are going to say, >> "I can't afford it." Right? So, as the price goes up, like if the if Netflix tries to double their prices, they're they're not going to double their revenue. there's going to be a number of customers who just quit, right? They're not going to pay the higher price. So, there's less demand for Netflix as you raise the price. >> With gold, it's actually the other way around. The higher the price, the more people want to buy it, >> right? Exactly. >> So, like if the price of gold doubles, not only does uh Numont's revenue double because they don't sell less gold because it's more expensive, they keep on buying it. They may even buy, but their their profits explode because their costs don't double, right? So, you're you're valuing Pneumont not based on its revenues, but based on its profits. So, if you double the revenue, you could quintuple the profits. >> Right. Right. Exactly. No, no, it's great. I like it. I like it. Listen, we're going to talk about I want to talk about um your your current outlook on the US economy. I we have to get to Bitcoin. I want to take a quick break. We'll come right back. All right. So, listen up. Let's talk about Interactive Brokers for a second here. Because at Interactive Brokers bond marketplace, you can access over 1 million global bonds, including global and corporate and municipal bonds, all in one place. That's really important. 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You're you're you're one of the things that one of the hats you wear uh of course is, you know, talking about pricing and and and expectations and climate management, but you also do uh a bit of a econ um u an economist, right? That I think that's that's that's something you enjoy doing. Am I right? >> Yeah. I mean, I'm a self-taught economist, although I did take some econ classes in in Berkeley, but I, you know, I I spent most of my time trying to correct the mistakes of my professors. So, I didn't I didn't really learn anything. I I tried to teach economics to my professors, but but although I wasn't completely self-taught because I learned from my father. >> Um, >> so let me ask you, let me ask you this. who was also self-taught because he had the same problem when he was in in college. His economics professors didn't know what they were talking about either. >> It's a genetic thing. Oh, here come Shiff again. Great. Right. So, here's a question. Uh, two questions. First, I have been a student of economics and would study charts and trends and look inside the numbers, break it down, and for a long time, early in my career, I thought that the economics were a major driver of the economy. I don't think anybody who started before let's say I'm just going to pick a pick a year the year 2000 before the year 2000 I think that was a very standard process right even if you were a bottoms up kind of person you'd still look at the top down economic condition of things and all that however over the last 5 years or so I have been like you know what some of this economic stuff is just not telling me anything about what's going to happen in the near term or the long term or I don't know the long term because I haven't it hasn't been long But it doesn't tell me what I need to know about the markets. What's different now? And or maybe tell me that I'm full of >> About what? I missed it. >> About whether or not the economics today are really important to the markets. Well, I look, they're important to me because I'm I'm a I'm a big macro guy and I can't help but view everything from that perspective and and and trying to invest for the endgame, not just trying to ride whatever wave of of momentum happens to capture the fancy of the public or even professional investors. Uh I think right now it's all just been about liquidity and the Fed and you know you know that just you know Tina like no alternative whatever they call that anacronism was uh there's no alternative and everybody just keeps piling in and it becomes a fel self-perpetuating uh situation where the more money chases a small number of stocks the better those stocks do and the better those stocks do the more money that wants to get in and and so it it kind of feeds on itself until eventually it implodes on itself. >> And we haven't gotten to that that point yet. But it seems like every time we do get to a point where the market's imploding, the Fed backs up the truck and, you know, cranks up the presses >> uh to bail it out. So, and I think most of the people who are managing larger pools of other people's money, you know, don't even understand economics. they they they they you know they they don't get it. They they you know and they've been living in this fantasy world of of monetary heroin for so long uh that they're you know they're just numb to it. They just don't don't know. And even a lot of Republicans, a lot of people have bought into the the MAGA nonsense like that stuff that Trump is saying. But none of this stuff is going to work. All this stuff is is going to backfire. It's it's you know it's it's it's throwing gasoline on on a fire. >> Yeah. No, I I hear you. So when it comes to the economy today, then where we are today looking forward with the information we know, are we talking about recession, stagflation, something else entirely? What what's going what what's the what's the near and midterm outlook? Well, you know, I do think it's uh stagflation, but I don't think it's going to be stagflation light. I hear a lot of people say, well, it's not going to be as bad as the 70s. I think they're wrong. I think it's going to be worse than the 70s. So, it's going to be stagflationheavy where it's not just a stagnant economy. We're going to be in a a a worse recession than the Great Recession that we had after the financial crisis. So, serious economic contraction, but we're going to have higher inflation than we had during the 70s. >> Really? >> So, when is that wait when is that projected? Because we just had a bout that was pretty ugly. Not terrible. Not 70s style, but it was enough to be like, "Oh, that didn't feel so good." >> No, it was 70s style. What are you talking about? I mean, like, >> well, it was a They didn't. >> Well, we got to 9% for one year. >> Yeah. >> But if we measured prices during that year, the way they measured them during the 70s, it would have been about 18%. >> You know, we don't have the same CPI that we had back then. >> Yeah. And you know, the highest inflation ever got back then was maybe 11 12% for one year. It didn't get much higher than the nine, but that was with a much more honest CPI. Uh so I think that right now, I mean, we're having pretty high inflation. As I said, that if you annualize the number that we just got today, that's 5% inflation, but that's probably 10% inflation if you had a more honest CPI. >> Yeah. I'm looking at a chart right now on a company called SA Shadow Stats which you probably are familiar with. Geese does great work. He's been on the show many times. Um and we're looking at um actually if you look back to 200 and oh this just goes back if I click this chart here but um you look back and you see that the the rate of inflation came down but we're still on the 1990based 1990 based which is obviously the alternative they have which is past the 1970s. Obviously, we're still at like 8% he's showing. >> Oh, yeah. >> That's That's pretty hot. >> Oh, yeah. And the Fed is talking about 2%. Like, oh yeah, we're just near 2%. They're they're not even in the ballpark at 2%. >> Yeah. So, it's pretty scary times. I I agree with that. And And it's funny because most people know it but don't want to admit it. Going out. Listen, I was I was in Seriously, I was I'm in Florida. We got fish everywhere down here, right? Local fish is mahi mahi. I went to a store here, a regular grocery store. I was just puttering around looking for something else. I happened upon the fishing fish area, you know, the fish uh uh it was $34 a pound for mahi mahi. That's not even funny. That's like a $45 $8 fish down here. >> $34. >> And they get Do you know Do you know 90% of our seafood is imported? >> Yeah. From >> You know, I mean, you'd figure with all these uh oceans and rivers and lakes, you figure we could catch our own fish. I've been out there. It's not so easy. But yeah, I get it. I get it. So, let's talk a little bit about something that I think is important because with all the things that are going on that could go wrong that could be beneficial for a while but then burst in in your opinion. Um, one of the things that's interesting is you have a much different opinion on something that is very near to dear to a lot of people and that is cryptocurrency and Bitcoin. I mean, you know, I got to ask that because I'm getting texts already from people that know you're coming on. It's like, hey, did you ask him? Did you ask him? Did you ask him? So the the question that keeps coming up, you know, is anything changed in your mind about Bitcoin? And by the way, to be totally upfront uh up front with you, I am not an advocate of Bitcoin as a gold alternative. Just to be clear, I think Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies or whatever you want to call them exactly are an interesting speculative asset. Have at it with you with that in mind. But you have been a critic and you even I said think I said once that you know Bitcoin is worthless which by the way from a fundamental value I think that is true but that it's going to go to zero. Tell me a little bit about where you are now. >> Yeah. Well it's funny because you started off the the conversation asking about me being a contrarian. >> Yeah. >> And so I'm even a contrarian in the Bitcoin world because the Bitcoiners think they're the contrarians, right? But I'm a contrarian to them. It's not. And you know, because I was at the Bitcoin conference, the last one in Las Vegas, there were 35,000 people in attendance and I was probably the only one who was anti- Bitcoin or, you know, negative on Bitcoin, but I was probably the most popular person there because everybody knew me and a lot of people, you know, credited me for buying Bitcoin. Now, I say they they'll eventually blame me for buying Bitcoin because they're going to end up end up losing money in it. But um yeah, look, I think Bitcoin is just another, you know, speculative bubble. I don't think there's any real value in in Bitcoin um or any of these other altcoins uh that that people gamble with. You're right. I mean, they are speculative tokens. And to the extent that there's a buyer there, uh then there's a market. And to the extent that the sellers um want to hold because they expect a moonshot, you know, Michael Sailor says Bitcoin is going to go to 10 million or 20 million and so never sell your Bitcoin. So if the people that own their Bitcoin don't want to get rid of it and more people want to buy, the price is going to go up. Yes, I mean that's going to happen. But the problem becomes when you run out of new buyers and the holders eventually want to sell whether they want to or whether they just need the money and then at some point the bottom drops out because there's nothing of real value there. It's all about the speculation. I'm buying Bitcoin because I believe I can sell it to somebody else at a higher price. Well, why is that person going to buy it? Well, because he has the same belief. Well, when you run out of greater fools, the the whole thing collapses. And you know, the Bitcoin uh community, especially the that, you know, the the OGs that the big guys that are, you know, have the big whale whale wallets, they've done a great job of promoting this thing. And then when they kind of ran out of uh suckers in the private market, they got Wall Street in on the game to come up with all these ETFs. And then when they started running out of demand there, they took over the Trump administration or first they got Trump elected and then >> they were definitely they were definitely helpful. They had some plenty of plenty of uh political money to spread around. Well, yeah, they the the the Bitcoin that was the largest donaires came from crypto. And now Trump has basically not only embraced the industry is it's now his family business. Uh they're all in on crypto. Uh his cabinet is all crypto. He's got a cryptozar. They've got a crypto bitcoin strategic reserve, a bitco strategic reserve. But here's the interesting thing. the high point for Bitcoin, four years ago, October of 2021, Bitcoin today is more than 15% lower than it was four years ago in gold >> in gold. Okay. >> So, in in in terms of gold and Bitcoin is presenting itself as the alternative to gold. It's digital gold, right? It's better than gold. You know, gold is the analog. Bitcoin, Bitcoin is digital, right? So, four years ago, over those four years, Bitcoin is down 15% in terms of gold. Now, what's happened over those four years? All the Bitcoin ETFs were launched. None of them existed four years ago. We had the entire uh NFT craze that that hadn't happened. You had El Salvador uh make it, you know, the official legal tender. You had Michael Sailor begin to buy tens of billions worth. Then you had all the copycat Bitcoin treasury companies who have been buying it up. Then you had the Trump administration, the Bitcoin presidents, all that. Despite all of that massive hype, Super Bowl ads, celebrity endorsements, all this stuff, Bitcoin's gone down. Yeah, it's gone up in dollars, but so is everything else, right? But in terms of real money, in terms of gold, you have been better off four years ago just putting it all in gold, >> right? So when you talk about the the let's I think it's important because I think some people have a hard would have a hard time wrapping themselves around this. When you keep talking about the idea this in terms of gold or in it's a relative discussion. You're saying when you say that you're saying that gold outperformed. Well, I'm saying, right, but Bitcoin went down priced in gold. If gold is real money, right? Yep. >> You can buy more Bitcoin with an ounce of gold today than you could four years ago. So, the price of gold in terms of Bitcoin has gone down. Now, the price of stocks have also gone down. The price of just about everything. But the point is, Bitcoin was hyped up as a alternative to gold in that it was going to be better, right? You should buy Bitcoin instead of gold. Well, if you did, you're worse off. You should have just bought gold. And you know, and and that's going to continue because I I look, I think the the bottom is going to drop out of this scheme. It's just a pyramid. It's a you know, it's a Ponzi. Uh gold is real. Gold is real money. Gold has actual value. Uh and and and so more people are going to figure that out. I think what helped power Bitcoin originally, the reason Bitcoin went from nothing to you know 50 60,000 70,000 that initial move is because gold went sideways uh from 2011 to 2024 the price of gold went sideways and so a lot of people got frustrated with gold uh they had expected it to go up and that kind of allowed an opening for Bitcoin uh to capture a lot of gold's you know thunder Because gold Bitcoin was going up while gold was going sideways. Well, gold's not going sideways anymore. Gold's going up. It's going up more than Bitcoin. And so now I think a lot of that frustrated money that went into Bitcoin and left gold is going to go back to gold. The problem is it's going to be very hard to get it out of Bitcoin because there's not a lot of buyers there. >> Yeah. One one thing you have to admit I think you have to admit is and and and you're making the case to yourself that the Bitcoin marketing slashdevelopment megaphone is pretty darn powerful and they have really created a really cool mousetrap to promote it. There's nothing like that in the gold industry. Let's be honest. No, because you know there's not as much money to be made promoting gold. I mean I know I sell gold shift gold. We we don't make very much money when you buy gold from us. We make like 1%. It's not a big markup. Now, there are some gold companies that rip people off and they charge 40 50% for crap coins. Yes. But, you know, in the scheme of things, there's that's not that much money because it's not a big sector. There's so much that's being made in crypto because you make these crypto tokens for nothing and then you sell them for a lot of money. Um, so there are a lot of people who are getting rich on crypto, but they're getting rich because other people are dumb enough to buy it. That's why they're getting rich. They, you know, they're not creating any value. They're not producing any wealth. They're just sucking money away from other people. Now, a lot of people have lost money in Bitcoin. They just don't know it yet because they haven't sold, right? So, they think they've made money because they have these tokens and on paper they have a certain value, >> but they're not selling. >> So, they haven't really made anything. But when they try to sell and so does everybody else, >> the the price collapses and then they realize how much money they lost. >> You're talking about a big rug pull is what you're talking about. and the fact that all of a sudden everybody wants to sell it cascades and there's not the liquidity out there that that that that potentially could be. I want to ask you a question about >> and this is a giant look this is a giant pump and dump and now the pumpers are the Trump administration. The US government is pumping up Bitcoin so Trump's friends can unload their Bitcoin on on the public. >> And they're doing a hell of a job of it, aren't they? >> Well, they've done a pretty damn good job. >> Really good. There's so much selling that the price hasn't gone up. I mean, Bitcoin is what 100 what is it? 112,000. >> Right around there. >> Yeah. I mean, but it was the same price three months ago. >> Yep. Let me ask you uh one question. Pick your brain about something since you know about gold coins. I happen to own a bunch of gold coins. Um I have uh 1982 to 1988 uh China pandas. Perfect condition. Good stuff. Well, I mean, I don't know if there's any collector value there, but I mean, if they're made of gold and they're 1 oz coins, they're they're worth their weight in gold. >> Yeah, exactly. There you go. There you go. Talk to me about Austrian economics. Explain what it is really quickly and why you're a big advocate. >> Well, as far as I'm concerned, Austrian economics is economics. I mean, it's like, you know, what's the difference between astronomy and astrology? Well, astronomy is an actual science. Astrology is just a bunch of BS, right? >> Okay. uh and so the economics that most people believe in whether it's Keynesian uh you know supply side monitorists whatever I think there those that's the equivalent of astrology especially Keynesianism but Austrian economics is really rooted in um in in true economics um in um you know the wealth of nations Adam Smith and then expanded by by by Mices. Um, but Austrian economics is what allowed me to know that the 2008 financial crisis was coming. It it allows me to understand the unintended consequences of government policies that catch everybody by surprise. You know, when we had the 2008 financial crisis, the idea was that it was some kind of black swan that nobody could have saw coming. when it was something that was so obvious, I saw it from a mile away because I was looking at it from the the prism of the Austrian school, but they weren't. And so all this stuff that happens that surprises people, it's because they don't really understand economics. If they understood it, they wouldn't be surprised when the obvious happens. But it's not obvious if you don't understand it. >> Yeah. No, I get that. I get that entirely. It's funny because >> and and and and the Austrian school does understand the business cycle and and how governments uh cause it, but also the Austrian school understands that the problem of the business cycle is during the boom when everybody else is happy. That's when the problems occur. That's when the mistakes are made. >> Well, the excess recession, >> right? the recession is from the Austrian perspective. That's the good thing. That's when the mistakes are corrected, right? That's when, you know, you pay the piper and and and and fix the mistakes and and lay the foundation for uh a real economic growth. But the Keynesian theory and the modern theory is that we should try to perpetuate the booms as long as possible and mitigate the busts, which is the worst thing you could do because you what you're doing is you're causing the disease and then you're preventing the cure by by by giving the patient more of the disease. >> Right? This is the old forest burning and not growing and not allowing it to burn down. You know, with that in mind, there's been some discussion that the the the traditional economic cycle trroth peak, you know, back around uh and all that, the whole um psychology behind it is dead. The Fed is not going to let it happen, right? No matter what happens, they're going to adjust and they're going to come in. They're going to provide more monetary policy, stimulus through some mechanism or another. Never let anything go down. like they didn't let, for example, in the latest banking situation, you know, the Signature Banks, all those guys really didn't let anybody fail during that. What did they do? Well, the banks loaded up on all this debt that was long-term and they just kept it on their books and all of a sudden the valuations of the banks assets went down precipitously as interest rates came up and the Fed came in and said, "Don't worry about it. We guarantee we'll buy it back for full price from you right now." And making a satisfaction of the books and records that they required. So if in fact if in fact I'm throwing this out there not saying it's absolutely correct, but if in fact the economic cycle is dead, does that really create even a bigger problem long term? Well, yeah. I mean, I I I I think that the the problem is going to come in this cycle. This is, I think, going to be the equivalent of the monetary overdose >> because the Trump administration and and and the Fed are going to be under the impression that if they just do what they did before, they'll get the same result. you know, and I'm talking about the monetary and fiscal policy that we had after the stock market crash uh in well, the the big tech bubble burst in 2001, 2002, the stock market or financial crisis of 2008, the COVID crisis of 2020. Uh they're going to do the exact same thing that they did then. They're going to slash interest rates and print a bunch of money. But given where we are right now, I don't believe we're going to get high uh like we did before. I think we're going to OD. And that means that the dollar is going to collapse because this time, the fourth time will not be the charm. The fourth time, the world does not want our dollars. they're already selling them. They're already buying gold. Um and and so the dollar is going to fall uh rather precipitously and that is going to put upward pressure on interest rates and and so and consumer prices. So that's why this recession is going to be so much worse than the prior recessions because it's going to be accompanied by higher interest rates and much higher consumer prices. And so the the the way the Fed has been able to stimulate the economy is its ability to lower rates without crashing the dollar. >> Mhm. >> But once it can't do that anymore, then the cure actually or the stimulus becomes a sedative. the more they try to stimulate the economy with cheap money, the more they end up sedating it. So, the Fed is actually going to harm the economy that's trying to help. Now, of course, it was always doing long-term harm. That was why I was opposed it, but at least it it, you know, it helped in the short run, right? But now, it's not even going to help in the short run. It's it's going to it's going to hurt in the short run and the long run. >> Yeah. So, so let me let me try to encapsulate this for you and tell me what you think. We have monetary heroin that keeps on being pumped in the system for many years on and off. This time it's going to be a monetary overdose, but this time there's no monetary narcine. >> Is that basically >> is that basically the point? >> Yes. How long do we have to go? >> I don't know. >> Well, that's the Well, come on. We need to know that answer. >> I mean, >> that that I can't I can't tell you. But I look the the fuse is a lot shorter than it was. I you know how how long. But look look at what's going on with gold. You know that tells you that you know time is running out. Um I think when the Fed cuts rates um you know next week I think is that's when they're supposed to meet right now. Is it next week? >> 16th. Yeah. >> 17th something like that. If the bond market really gets a hit, takes a hit on that rate cut, that could be a sign that, you know, it's going to it's coming. >> Yeah. >> Um and and look at the dollar. I mean, look where the, you know, where the, you know, watch for a bigger crack in the dollar. I mean, the dollar's down on the year quite a bit, but it's still, it's been hanging out these last few months. It hasn't really made new lows. Hasn't recovered, but it hasn't made new lows. But if we start to see the dollar hitting fresh lows, uh the bond market going down, long-term rates rising, and gold continuing to spike, you know, that's a pretty good sign that we're running out of time. >> Yeah, I hear you. Speaking about running out of time, thank you, Peter Schiff, Europe, Pacific Capital and Asset Management and uh gold and we're going to have all the information on where people can get to you, but you can tell me also over on uh the show notes for episode number 938. How do people see you, watch you, hear you, get you, all that? Well, first of all, shift gold. If you want to buy some gold and silver, which I would recommend, I mean, if you don't own any, you need to own it. Uh, at least 5 10% of your, you know, overall uh, you know, portfolio should have physical gold and silver, uh, and and take custody of it, you know, have it with you, uh, and so we can deliver it to to you at Shift Gold. So, just go to shift gold.com and you can either load up your shopping cart or you can talk to one of my representatives that will help you pick out what what what to buy and nobody will pressure you and no one will bait and switch you into these overpriced coins because we don't sell them. We we just sell the real stuff >> um then um I mentioned gold stocks. Even though they've more than doubled this year, they are still very cheap. Um, I think they could double again uh next year, maybe triple next year, even though they've already doubled. I mean, the thing is, nobody even talks about them. Nobody's buying these stocks. Nobody owns these stocks. They're completely off of everybody's radar. >> It's not sexy. It's not sexy. Let's be honest. >> Well, you may think it's sexy. It's sexy to you. But yeah, but a lot of people don't. >> You know, you know, I got a gold fund, the Europacific Gold Fund. EPIGX is the no load symbol. You could buy my fund anywhere on uh any discount broker. What makes my fund so valuable right now is we have a lot of private placements that are not being counted in our value. And so as the market's gone up this year, we've lagged performance-wise >> because we have all these stocks that haven't gone up, but they've actually gone up. It's we just can't price them. But when these companies go public, all of a sudden it's going to be a big deal. But we've got a great portfolio. I think people are going to make a ton of money uh in these stocks. Yeah, there's risk, but relative to the potential, I don't think you can beat it anywhere else in the market. So, if you're willing to take a risk, I think for my money, and my money is pretty much a lot in gold stocks, that's where you you want to go. But we have we have broad portfolios. You know, my dividend payer strategy, get this, I have a mutual fund that just invests in foreign dividend paying stocks. It's up over 42% this year. >> Yeah. >> This year. >> Yeah. >> Utilities, real estate trusts, uh, pharmaceutical companies, tobacco companies, food and beverage companies, right? Basic companies that pay dividends 42%. So, this is what's going on. People are pulling their money out of the US market and investing internationally. This is a trend that I believe is going to continue for many, many years, and it's still early. So, if you want to get information on all of our strategies, all of our funds, uh, transfer an account over to us, uh, you can go to my website at europac.com, europac.com. Uh, I also put out a newsletter, a free newsletter. You can subscribe to that at shiftsvereign.com. Two or three uh, uh, emails per week will arrive in your in your inbox. They're free, right? And there's a lot of good insight in there. And if you want to listen to me, you know, I do the Peter Schiff show podcast uh at least once a week, sometimes twice depending on, you know, what's going on and how much time I have. But you can listen to it on my YouTube channel, Peter Schiff, also on shiftradio.com or anywhere they have podcasts. Um I'm going to be doing another one, I think, uh tonight, I think. Um and and then follow me on social media. I mean, I'm on uh Facebook, I'm on um YouTube, I said. I'm on um uh Instagram, Tik Tok, but you know where I spend the most time is on X. That's where I've got almost 1.2 million followers. So X, you definitely got to follow me there because I'm constantly putting my thoughts out real time. Nobody does that for me. I I do them all. I write them all myself. So when you're following me on X, you're following me. >> Love it. Love it. Love it. Love it. Hey, thanks for coming on. We'll get uh do this again one day real soon. When you're down in When you're down in Fort Lauderdale, let's have a drink. >> Yeah. You know, we were What was I was there not that long ago. My next trip to Florida is Orlando coming up uh next month. >> All right. Very good. A little bit far from me, but we'll do it. I'll see you soon, buddy. Thanks. >> All right. Take care. >> Thanks. >> That was pretty intense. I loved it. Talked about a lot of things all the way from uh monetary heroin to Bitcoin going to zero. We talked about Australia, Austrian economics. We talked about uh US dollar teetering. We talked about uh everything that's going on in the economy. So, what else can you ask for in this? Right. Thanks for joining me this week. Next week turns out it's going to be a great week. Great people coming aboard over the next I have some great guests. Don't forget to listen to DH unplugged as well. And make sure to visit the site where you find everything you need to know about us over on the disciplinedinvestor.com. Thanks for joining me again. I'll see you again real soon. This podcast is intended forformational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principle and past performance is not indicative of future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of the host and any guests and may not necessarily reflect those of Horowits and Company, Inc., an investment adviser registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. 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