'The Consumer is Dead' – Economy 'Way Worse' Than Most Understand: Melody Wright
Summary
Macro Outlook: Guest argues the US economy is weaker than headlines suggest, with the K-shaped top now softening and consumer pressures from healthcare, insurance, and taxes weighing on demand.
US Housing: Deep slowdown with few transactions, rising delinquencies, and impending foreclosures; opportunities may emerge for buyers with low debt and for funds targeting distressed real estate.
Commercial Real Estate: Skeptical on near-term CRE recovery; office vacancies (e.g., Dallas) remain elevated and new supply worsens the outlook, while senior housing shifts toward aging in place.
AI Bubble: AI is framed as mania, with concerns about sustainability; data center hype lacks corroborating permits and capex logic, suggesting risks for investors and potential retail bagholders.
Private Credit: Private credit’s surge into consumer loans (KKR, OWL, Sixth Street) is seen as late-cycle risk-taking, with weak underwriting and potential pain ahead if delinquencies rise.
Precious Metals: Bullish inclination toward gold and silver as hard assets amid market distrust, geopolitical tensions, and strategic metals demand tied to defense needs.
Geopolitics & Resources: Venezuela action framed more about rare earths and strategic interests than oil, highlighting resource security as an investment backdrop.
Key Companies: Behavioral red flags cited around AI leaders (PLTR, OpenAI, TSLA’s Musk milieu) and institutions like BLK/CXW in public-private dynamics, reinforcing caution.
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day. Today is January 5th, 2026. And I'm thrilled to welcome Melody Wright to the program, an analyst in real estate, macro, and technology and the publisher of the M3 Melody Substack. Melody believes both the broad economy and housing market in the US are in dire straits, and she brings the facts and figures to back up her claims, along with where she's seeing potential opportunity amongst the rubble. Melody also explains why the recent fraud allegations in Minnesota are just the tip of the iceberg, and rampant grifting is the rule, not the exception, when it comes to both sides of the political aisle all over the country. If you love silver, pick up your stack silver, not fiat t-shirt, exclusively available in the commodity culture shop using the link in the description below. And now, strap yourselves in for my conversation with Melody Wright. Melody Wright, it is great to have you on Commodity Culture. I want to kick things off with a 60,000 ft overview of the US economy as we begin 2026. So, from your point of view, what are the main challenges you see ahead this year? and what if anything is going in the right direction? >> Yeah. So, I think the economy is um a lot worse than what most people think. And you know, and I think we've heard a lot over the last year about the K-shaped economy, but I think you're starting to see a pullback um at the top of that K as well. That's definitely the case in in housing. Jesse, there was a really funny article over uh the break um from the Wall Street Journal that lists all these luxury mansions that they had talked you were supposed to vote for your favorite house or whatever. But in each of these mansions, you could see part of the housing story, which is, you know, somebody died or it was just too expensive to maintain. Now, of course, they didn't say it exactly that way, but there was a lot of downsizing that needed to happen um in this article. And my point about this is is that we've seen the top of the K, you know, be uh responsible for about 50% of consumption um over the last year. And I think we're starting to see them get hit as well. But um you know, we also had a fall full of layoffs that uh you know, worst October since 2008, uh essentially um except for like CO. And so, you know, I think the the economy is much worse than many understand now. Uh, you know, if we didn't have this AI, uh, I I can't call it a boom. I can call it a mania. Then, um, you know, we'd be pretty much dead in the water. Now, a lot of people are pointing to what's going to come out of BBB, uh, the big beautiful bill, and that we should start to see some of that generate activity, you know, uh, here in the spring. We're going to have, and I'm putting all this in quotation marks, you know, the largest income uh tax refund season that we've ever had. The problem is you have a whole bunch of other things happening, too. You have cuts to Medicaid. you have these sub subsidies for the American affordable care act um that are going away as well as stu they're going to start you know garnishing wages for student loans and taking those tax refunds and so you know um I think where we are is uh it's just not great and that once you kind of um I think probably by the spring people are going to realize that and really you know post sort of April when tax season is over that the consumer is still dead and it doesn't matter if they're going to get an extra $1,000 or even if that stimulus comes to fruition an extra 2,000 that um you know rising health care cost uh property insurance taxes car insurance um you know rent even though that's starting to come down uh home prices uh that is just it's really going to sort of choke any you know, uh, additional consumption. So, I think that the economy is in way worse shape than most will acknowledge, put it that way. >> And is there any silver lining at all in these clouds, um, or or anything that you can see at least starting to move in the right direction? >> Well, you know, I think as we start to see rent come down, as we start to see shelter come down, and I I think we're going to start to see prices come down because the cure for high prices is high prices. And I think that we've we've gotten to the place where um you know people just can't afford this anymore. And of course you know here in the United States you and I were just talking about Christmas before we started. You know this is a big holiday for us. I do it. Everybody overspends even if they shouldn't even if they know better. This is just like you get into that you tell yourself hey you know all fall I'm not going to do it. I'm not going to do it. You get to December, you see your kids' face and you're like, I have to do it. And you and you know, this is what we saw. We saw a lot of spending, buy now pay later spending, things like that. And so, you know, in terms of like silver lining, um I I think that if you're it as these prices start to come down and you're not in debt, you will be able to take advantage of certain opportunities. Um, you can also take advantage of if you rent, for instance, here in the United States, you can go in and say, "You know what? My lease is coming up, but I'm not paying that." You need to give me I'll pay $200 less a month. And they'll say, "Well, maybe go pound sand, but you can go down the street at that new multifamily complex is giving away three months free for rent." And so I think the silver lining is that for those that have been biting their time, paying down their debt, it they're going to have opportunities here this year to kind of take advantage of what I'll call some deflation um you know, in terms of some of these shelter costs, etc. And you know, I think for young Americans who also make the decision to um perhaps pursue a trade versus going into college uh without getting into debt that you know, again, they could be setting themsel up for some really good opportunities that we'll see, you know, starting to really it it so what I'm seeing is delinquency is rising and so by Q3 of 2026, I think that there is going to be more opportunity out there. it won't be in any way the bottom, but you know, um I think that people can start taking advantage of of this environment where prices are going down. >> Well, one item that's been in the news uh concerning the US has been this uh supposed fraud among Somali daycare centers in Minnesota. Uh you released an article on January 1st on your Substack titled Grifter Nation. Uh, you wrote, "While mainstream media plays partisan politics with the story and focuses on a specific group, I encourage you not to lose sight of this story's importance because it's not just in Minnesota. I've seen evidence of this fraud in my research and travels all over the country in both blue and red states." So, talk to us about why Minnesota is just the tip of the iceberg here and just how endemic is fraud and grifting when it comes to public private partnerships in the United States right now. >> Yeah. So I think it started at the end of the GFC Jesse and you know with kind of um like for instance in my company Black Rockck was brought in at the behest of kind of the government once we had TARP to uh help us with our asset sales dispositions and things. So what the government kind of did is move toward this model of public private partnership. Think about the prison system for instance uh you know that was run federally. Now you have a bunch of private corporations that run that. Um, and so what happened in that is, uh, you're probably too young to remember, but, uh, Clinton and Gore going on David Letterman and and you know, uh, talking about the $100 hammer or whatever, like all of this government bloat and they got rid of it. Well, what they did is they turned to private part these public private partnerships and then the bloat just came there. And so for instance, you know, the $20 bottle of water that you're giving a soldier overseas in the military or suddenly the milk that you give to prisoners is $15. You know, there just this grift becomes systemic and endemic. And so I, you know, I this is everywhere. and and it really went on steroids when um the American Rescue Plan came out and they sent over $300 billion to states, counties, municipalities, and they created these programs around affordable housing, around daycare, and often, you know, these were well-intended um programs, but this just it happened all over the country. And so, you know, this is one of the reasons why I think the economy is way, like your very first question, why it's way worse than most are seeing is that one of the only categories where we have seen job growth over the last year was in this education and health services category. And this is where all these jobs roll up. And so, if many of these jobs are actually fraudulent, then I think we're in a place in the economy that is way worse than most understand. And so which is being hidden by this AI mania but it it's everywhere Jesse it's and you know I give an example in that Substack of here in Tennessee Core Civic is who runs a prison here and and it's the same thing. And so they're they're getting rich. The prisoners aren't getting actually the provisions that they're supposed to get by law. Um and meanwhile you know these these people at the top of the grift are the only ones that are getting rich. And so it's not just about Minnesota. I spent 7 years in Minnesota, very familiar with that grift, but it's everywhere and I've seen it everywhere. >> The sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver Gold Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. can take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com. Make sure to tell them of course that commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. So, do you think that this story kind of breaking and being top of the news cycle and it's turned into kind of a Republican versus Democrat issue, do you think this is kind of a way for, you know, the Trump administration and and the Republican side to wrap this all up with a bow and say, "Well, we got Waltz to to not run. Um, we're going to probably, I don't know, arrest or charge some people and then case closed, we did it." And then that way the public will kind of be distracted from the fact that both sides are committing this sort of fraud all over the country. Is that how you think this is playing out? >> Well, so I think that this is, you know, you have to ask yourself, they could have taken Waltz down with this during the presidential election. And um this was this case, this has been going on for a very long time. You know, I saw evidence of it. I left uh Minnesota probably in 200 uh gosh uh 2011 and saw evidence like this. So uh why didn't they use it to take him down? You know, I I think this is kind of interesting. It's sort of paving the path for the Medicaid cuts that are going to go into effect in 2026. And so just an example here locally in East Tennessee, we have a local rural hospital that was destroyed during Helen. Well, they've decided not to rebuild that hospital um because of the Medicaid cuts. Now, had we not had Helen, uh that hospital would have probably been closed as well and because of those cuts. And so I think this is kind of uh the um body armor around the Medicaid cuts and and that are coming. And so when people and and you've already seen people going to their city council saying I'm not going to be able to get care like people in wheelchairs and things like this. Um I think this is the way that you kind of get uh a hall pass on those Medicaid cuts. Um but yeah, I you know I don't think that we're going to have some national awakening. Um, I think that this is just yet another um story to kind of distract us from the fact that we don't have jobs. We don't have the right kind of jobs to really make this economy pump again. >> Well, let's talk about the current state of the US housing market. You've alluded to a few things, but let's hone in on it. Uh, you recently mentioned that price cuts on listings in 85 cities UTRA are accelerating. What is that telling us about the overall trajectory of the housing market here in 2026? And are there any other data points that you could share with us to help paint an overall picture of where you see things headed? >> Sure. So, I track 85 cities around the country. You don't have to look at my work though. you know, Zillow came out and said that in I think 50 to 53% of markets, um, you'd seen value destruction of about 9.7%. Um, in terms of price reductions, then the problem is why aren't we seeing that in the actual results? Because nothing's selling. I mean, we we are on we are set to have the, you know, the worst housing market in existing home sales that we've seen since 1995. Some are saying 1982, you know, depending on which series you're looking at. Um, but it's just it's abysmal. And so, you know, I think uh what you're and I see it everywhere. I you know what I would encourage people to look at um is pick a house in your neighborhood that's for sale. Watch it. Watch and see what happens. There's one right down the street from me that they listed. Um, you know, they they before they even listed it, I saw the U-Haul, you know, it started out at like 450. Uh, it and that was listed probably in October. It's down to 3.99 and there's still no bets. And this is a very nice home. It's actually on a college, a local college here. It looks perfect for maybe a professor or something like that, but it's not going anywhere. And so, you know, the problem right now is that we don't have any transactions. So we can't actually see price discovery and the people that are transacting are of course uh you know the top 1% um or the ones that are being sort of what I would say lured into the market by these FHA programs or things like that but they're running out of those people. Uh you can see that with purchase applications the Fed tracks rejection rates that's over 20%. For the mortgage refinance it's over 42% um rejection rate. And so we're at a point where credit quality has degraded. Um and so people can't even get credit to participate in this market. And so unfortunately um the boomers, we also have this other thing, sorry, called rage dellisting where people are just pulling those homes off market because they can't get the price that they thought uh that the home was worth. Even though we've had recent articles in both Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal kind of saying, you know, you need to be a little more realistic about what you think your home is going to sell for, but how can you blame them? They've been looking at theirs estimate for years now and believing that number even though it is they never question how does that number get, you know, computed like how do they come up with that? and it's a very bad uh it's not a it's not a good estimate of what your home is because they use comps that are 20 m away. So, you know, I think that we're at the point where when we do start to really have meaningful transactions, that's when we're going to get the price discovery. And with foreclosures on the rise, those meaningful transactions are going to start to accelerate. And in Q2 of 2026, once kind of everybody uh the pig gets through the python of this FHA program, uh you are going to have meaningful foreclosures and it will start to impact price. >> Well, as an investor, when it comes to both residential and commercial real estate in the US, are there any segments of the market that look bullish right now or would you just be completely sitting on the sidelines at this point? Yeah, you're even seeing delinquency rise in industrial. You know, this is one of the funny thing about uh this data center narrative is that we should be seeing a ton of permits, right? We should be seeing a ton of activity if suddenly we're going to have this data center boom. Not sure how you get a permit on the moon yet, but I'm sure there's a way that you do that. Um but yeah, I you know, I I just don't see that happening. And so, you know, I I'm not I it it's um there's not really a sector that I would be excited about right now. Um unless I was you know what I would be doing right now is building a fund uh to be able to buy distress properties. That's what I would be doing. Um and you you are seeing uh transactions increase in the office space as people think things are bottoming. But I would just tell people I wrote a piece last week for Unicus Research called Greenshoots question mark because there's the industry always sees the green shoots and I said, you know, I took Dallas for example, which uh right now they have the second highest uh VA office vacancy in the country and they're building a 38tory office tower downtown where nobody wants to be. So that that vacancy is just going to increase. And what I said is only green shoots are the ones you're seeing, you know, in the cracks in the uh the parking lot of the abandoned buildings because that's that's what it is. Um so I I don't think there's any sector right now that um now senior housing is going to be something uh that people need to look at, but I think it's going to look very different from what people think of today. Like it's I don't think it's going to be nursing homes and and you can see that in the data right now. A lot of the securizations that have assisted living facilities in them are seeing very high delinquency because people are choosing to age in place instead. Let's talk about an article that was recently released in the Financial Times called private credit firms pile into consumer debt as risk-taking mounts. In it analyst Adam Josephson stated, "In 2025, private credit groups, including the likes of KKR, Blue Owl, and Sixth Street, either purchased or struck so-called forward flow agreements to purchase 136 billion of consumer loans. That number compared with just 10 billion in the previous year. What is going on in your view with this massive increase in consumer loan purchases? And what do you think the endgame of these private credit groups are?" Yeah. So, you have to kind of look at history and you know after the GFC you had the Basel 3 ingame and and you basically the banks had to pull back because they had capital ratios things you know certain assets were risk weighted a different way than others. And so they kind of pulled back on lending to Main Street. You can look at any bank's balance sheet and kind of see that on the consumer side where they didn't pull back um was to uh these these other in they were lending to other institutions and this is the only place you're actually seeing increase in lending by the banks and what these other institutions did is they they you know they're the smartest guys in the room Jesse like they thought they they understood lending and credit and um you know they use those inflated credit scores that we saw to uh and algorithms, you know, and I laugh because you can always game those um underwriting systems to kind of qualify borrowers. And so you had a whole bunch of people in this space that really don't understand credit and they are get they're about to get really um crucified, but because everybody always thinks they're smarter than everybody else. It's like, you know, I remember at a conference in probably 2022, a guy who was doing algam rhythmd driven home equity lending was like, I can't get anybody to talk to me. I said, well, dude, you got to understand like all of us that went through the GFC look at home equity loans and we cringe. I mean, I remember at my former company when we sold them for 10 cents on the dollar and then those things followed me around for years. Um so and but guess what happens? Everybody forgets or everybody believes the narrative that oh there's so much equity out there to a year probably not even a year 18 months later that guy's doing you know going gang busters with his company doing these home equity loans. A lot of times they're not even being properly reported to credit and so we don't actually understand the true picture of uh home equity out there at all. And but yeah, these companies have got in big and they're going to be hurt bigly. And you know, and this is probably why we're seeing so much stress um in the repo markets as well. >> Well, I have to get your take on precious metals as well. I know it's not an area you cover a lot, but I'm just wondering with both metals uh hitting new all-time highs recently in 2025, and from your perspective as a macro analyst, what do you make of this price action? And is the rapid rise of gold and silver telling us something about the underlying economy? >> Yeah. So I I don't you know I may not necessarily talk about it very often but it's I you know I believe in gold and silver and when people actually ask my advice which they should not about what to invest in you know that's that's what I tell them and I've been telling them for years you know um I I bought all my family little silver coins for Christmas in 2022 which I tell them now look at what it is now comparatively speaking um you know I don't trust any of this price action right now, Jesse, cuz I just I I think um it's probably the horse is way out of the barn and it's just it's running and galloping and nobody really knows what it's about to get into if you know what I mean. But, um you know, with silver, I think it's just so useful. uh and you know I think I think we'll probably talk about it but um what we're seeing is that the minerals we need uh the rare earth minerals that we need for uh you know people can say AI but it's really for weapons because I do believe we're kind of gearing up for war unfortunately um you know we we need these metals and so I think I think that that is a big part of the story. I also think um people just don't trust uh what I mean they don't trust the stock market. They don't trust what they're seeing and so they're kind of going to those hard assets. Um there was an article uh yesterday I think uh about China specifically and how high netw worth individuals are really u making a transition from real estate because it's it's an albatross. Like when you have rising property taxes, rising insurance, and you don't have home price appreciation, that thing becomes a losing asset very quickly. And so people are making the transition from real estate into metals. Um because you know uh and and I think there's probably some people that think that with the BBB you know inflation is going to run out of control. You know I think that what I've learned um you know diving into macro is that there is no one reason and everybody wants it to be one reason. Um, but in reality, if people are really sure about something, you need to you need to start asking questions because this world is very complicated and there's a lot of players and so I don't know exactly what to make of it, Jesse, but I'm I'm very cautious right now cuz I think there's a lot of shenanigans going on and and you know, I think about I think it was silver with JP Morgan Morgan several years ago, you know, thinking its vault was full of silver had that on their balance sheet. they open the doors and realized somebody had that those bags were full of, you know, dirt and somebody had stolen it. I kind of feel like we might suddenly see a lot more of that where uh there's been a lot of rehypothecation and so things could come I mean there could be a lot of dis uh it could the markets could become very disorderly and so I'm a conservative and when I see something like that I tend to kind of pull back until I actually know what's going on. Well, you spoke about potential uh war and tensions rising around the world. Uh I want to get your take on the military operation that took place in Venezuela and the arrest of President Nicholas Maduro. How do you see the situation playing out from here? Um how could you see it potentially impacting the economy if at all? And is Greenland next because at this point why not? I think uh Tracy Shukart or Chi Girl is how she's known on ex Twitter probably came out with the best article about this um and just really pointed to um it's not about oil, it's actually about the rare earths and it's also about China, Iran, and Russia having infrastructure or vested interest in the region that we needed uh to kind of put a kibash on. And so, you know, I think the the big narrative is oil, which, you know, when you really look into that, it's like, uh, do we really need I mean, it's that's not our biggest concern. And so, um, yeah, Greenland will probably be next. Um, you know, and what is really annoying to me about this is that nobody's being honest with the American public about what's really going on. I mean, we're talking about drugs. I mean, if we wanted to stop the drugs, Jesse, all we'd have to do is stop the money. I mean, we don't have to go in with guns ablazing and bombs like just shut down the money and and that would shut it down. So, this isn't about drugs. It's about those rare earth minerals more than likely. And you know, oil is a bonus uh and things like that. But in term, what does it mean? It just mean what I mean the biggest thing that it means to me is that we are not being told the truth about what's going on. Therefore, we have to be very mistrusting of those narratives. Um what it means for the economy, I I don't know. I And I think that um the forces that I just talked about, uh you know, the Medicaid cuts, uh the student loans, uh sudden there going to be a whole bunch of people that are going to have to in that save plan that will probably have to be have to start paying again. um you know if they do uh take those tax refunds I just think there's so many things coming for consumers that uh whatever you know oil investment or things um that could happen they might uh actually you know benefit a few but it's not going to benefit the economy full stop in my opinion >> yeah and it's amazing that today in 2025 we have people on on social media I've seen who still believe the American democracy Y reigns supreme, we take out an evil dictator. I mean, in all of these operations, of which there's been many post World War II, I believe over a hundred. Um, almost never or perhaps never does this actually benefit the people of the country where this takes place. There's so many examples. Um, but it's it's just interesting. Although I've heard that a lot of the pro the content online that's that's pro this move is is AI generator of bots. Who knows anymore online? >> Yeah. My favorite Jesse now it's like a little game with me is um I I figure out what kind of bot it is that's responding to me because it's it's wild like the housing bots are also the anti-Israel bots. Like it's it's really bizarre. And so it's kind of like it's now that I understand the game and it took me a couple years to understand the game. Um you can really start having fun with it and and just kind of you know there's a lot of clues out there if you're paying attention of what's really going on. And I think you can watch these things. They always have this pre-narrative that comes out. 50-year mortgage is a good example. there was some random poster on X that started talking about paying off his mortgage and everybody's like, "You're stupid. Why did you do that?" 3 days later, 50-year mortgage. I mean, you can just watch these things unfold. But I would, you know, I would encourage anybody that thinks that whatever you're reading online is true, like that is No, they're telling you something for a reason. Try to figure out why. And and you'll be better off in my opinion. >> Yes. Yes. I mean, we could talk about that topic alone for for a very long time, but I do want to shift to getting your take on the broad market at present. The indices also hitting all-time highs in 2025, continuing to grind higher despite calls from many analysts that things are massively overvalued, and there's no way this can continue. In your opinion, is the broad market in a bubble right now? And do you think 2026 could be the year that it finally bursts? >> It's definitely in a bubble. And you know AI is not what people think and you can believe in the technology without believing in the hype. Um and you can understand its limitations and so it's definitely a bubble but I could see us bubbling along for you know a little bit longer. Now March is always um you know that quarter just there's a lot of movement a lot of liquidity moving around things like that. You know that's when we saw the SVB bank failure. Uh, I always get Lehman and Bear Sterns mixed up, but that's when we saw one of them in March. And so, you know, March could be when we start to really where we might start to see some trouble. Um, and uh, but, you know, this is all this is allopium and this is all BS uh that we're skating along on now. And it's not going to matter till it matters. And I think that it's going to really start to matter in Q2 of 2026 when those foreclosures start to rise because when you have foreclosures, people can't really argue anymore that the economy is doing great. And you know, we'll probably get another random deep sea type event, right? we'll probably get some kind of oh my gosh you know we just jumped way ahead with a way to kind of configure the chips or that gives us xyz capacity but back to my point about why I I don't see permits for these new data centers so you know I think everybody is just uh pushing pushing pushing allowing your institutionals and uh to to exit and unfortunately you know retail will probably be left holding the bag as per usual. >> Yeah, it's interesting. I had our mutual friend Jack Gamble on the show recently to discuss the AI bubble and and he was basically saying all the hype behind it is essentially fraud and grifting. Going back to what we were talking about at the top of the show, we've seen some very strange behavior from OpenAI CEO Sam Olman as well as Palunteer CEO Alex Karp on camera. Very, very bizarre situation. and Sam Olman basically berating somebody for asking him, hey, if you have this much capex planned, like how does that even make sense? How are you going to make that money back and what's and what's the business model here? And Sam Alman said, you know what, you can sell your shares because I have buyers lined up for them. And then he said, enough as if as if it was like he was being harassed or accused of something falsely. It was so weird. Then we all know about carp bouncing around, probably coked up or something like that. at least he looks that way putting out these veiled short sellers are attacking us and it's insane. Um it it it leads me to believe that they have something to hide. What what are your thoughts here on this kind of off-the-wall behavior from these CEOs in the industry and does that kind of send off alarm bells in your mind? >> Yeah, so did they close that funding round? Uh, you know, I I think they were supposed to close it by the end of the year with SoftBank and they weren't close on open AI. I I haven't seen anything today, but yeah. No, you know, I have a friend uh Michael Ferris who does Coffee and a Mic and you know, he talks about this as like the superhero movie and and it very much is. And I see Karp and Altman is like these anti-heroes, right? They're I mean, they're crazy. They're absolutely crazy. I mean, Altman can't even finish his sentence. I mean, he doesn't even look real with Karp going around doing his handstand push-ups, you know, um, like you say, all coked out. I mean, I just think this is they're crazy and yeah, they're hiding something and it, you know, they're they're acting. This is all performance. Um, and and again, to just keep things going a little bit longer. And it's it's it's you know this cult this technology cult that they have um where people really believe like that we're going to beat death or something you know like and they've got so many people in this mindset that you know they can do these crazy things and people think that's great. I mean you look at Musk I mean what promise has he ever delivered and yet you know legions of people follow this man around. And so these to me they're all actors. Um, and I think I think between Altman and Wayne, one of them's going to be in jail by the end of the year. >> Very interesting, >> honestly. >> Well, Melody, this has been a fantastic conversation. Tell us about the M3 Melody Substack and anywhere else you want to direct people online. >> Sure. So, I write uh I write um you know frequently in the M3 Melody Substack just about what's going on in the economy. Um contextualize for housing specifically, but you know um a lot of people think I just need a good school in my neighborhood and that's why where I'm going to buy a house. But in reality, it's way more complicated than that. So, you can find that at M3 Melody Substack. And so, I kind of take these news stories that we talk about and I kind of relate them to housing and that. So, and encourage anybody just even the free version has a ton of data and information. Um, and then uh on X Twitter I'm M3_Melody and then infrequently I post on my YouTube channel M3 Melody YouTube. >> Great. I'll put links to all of that in the description below. Thank you so much Melody for coming on the show. It's been a blast. >> Thank you for having me. It's always my pleasure. >> Thank you for joining us today. Our sponsor is Ark Silver Gold Opium. They have some excellent prices right now on silver bullion products. They are appearing on your screen. These are all while supplies last and subject to change. So reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsgo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you. And of course, pick up your Stacks Silver Not Fiat T-shirt backed by a 100% quality guarantee using the link in the description below. And I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up to date with the latest episodes.
'The Consumer is Dead' – Economy 'Way Worse' Than Most Understand: Melody Wright
Summary
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day. Today is January 5th, 2026. And I'm thrilled to welcome Melody Wright to the program, an analyst in real estate, macro, and technology and the publisher of the M3 Melody Substack. Melody believes both the broad economy and housing market in the US are in dire straits, and she brings the facts and figures to back up her claims, along with where she's seeing potential opportunity amongst the rubble. Melody also explains why the recent fraud allegations in Minnesota are just the tip of the iceberg, and rampant grifting is the rule, not the exception, when it comes to both sides of the political aisle all over the country. If you love silver, pick up your stack silver, not fiat t-shirt, exclusively available in the commodity culture shop using the link in the description below. And now, strap yourselves in for my conversation with Melody Wright. Melody Wright, it is great to have you on Commodity Culture. I want to kick things off with a 60,000 ft overview of the US economy as we begin 2026. So, from your point of view, what are the main challenges you see ahead this year? and what if anything is going in the right direction? >> Yeah. So, I think the economy is um a lot worse than what most people think. And you know, and I think we've heard a lot over the last year about the K-shaped economy, but I think you're starting to see a pullback um at the top of that K as well. That's definitely the case in in housing. Jesse, there was a really funny article over uh the break um from the Wall Street Journal that lists all these luxury mansions that they had talked you were supposed to vote for your favorite house or whatever. But in each of these mansions, you could see part of the housing story, which is, you know, somebody died or it was just too expensive to maintain. Now, of course, they didn't say it exactly that way, but there was a lot of downsizing that needed to happen um in this article. And my point about this is is that we've seen the top of the K, you know, be uh responsible for about 50% of consumption um over the last year. And I think we're starting to see them get hit as well. But um you know, we also had a fall full of layoffs that uh you know, worst October since 2008, uh essentially um except for like CO. And so, you know, I think the the economy is much worse than many understand now. Uh, you know, if we didn't have this AI, uh, I I can't call it a boom. I can call it a mania. Then, um, you know, we'd be pretty much dead in the water. Now, a lot of people are pointing to what's going to come out of BBB, uh, the big beautiful bill, and that we should start to see some of that generate activity, you know, uh, here in the spring. We're going to have, and I'm putting all this in quotation marks, you know, the largest income uh tax refund season that we've ever had. The problem is you have a whole bunch of other things happening, too. You have cuts to Medicaid. you have these sub subsidies for the American affordable care act um that are going away as well as stu they're going to start you know garnishing wages for student loans and taking those tax refunds and so you know um I think where we are is uh it's just not great and that once you kind of um I think probably by the spring people are going to realize that and really you know post sort of April when tax season is over that the consumer is still dead and it doesn't matter if they're going to get an extra $1,000 or even if that stimulus comes to fruition an extra 2,000 that um you know rising health care cost uh property insurance taxes car insurance um you know rent even though that's starting to come down uh home prices uh that is just it's really going to sort of choke any you know, uh, additional consumption. So, I think that the economy is in way worse shape than most will acknowledge, put it that way. >> And is there any silver lining at all in these clouds, um, or or anything that you can see at least starting to move in the right direction? >> Well, you know, I think as we start to see rent come down, as we start to see shelter come down, and I I think we're going to start to see prices come down because the cure for high prices is high prices. And I think that we've we've gotten to the place where um you know people just can't afford this anymore. And of course you know here in the United States you and I were just talking about Christmas before we started. You know this is a big holiday for us. I do it. Everybody overspends even if they shouldn't even if they know better. This is just like you get into that you tell yourself hey you know all fall I'm not going to do it. I'm not going to do it. You get to December, you see your kids' face and you're like, I have to do it. And you and you know, this is what we saw. We saw a lot of spending, buy now pay later spending, things like that. And so, you know, in terms of like silver lining, um I I think that if you're it as these prices start to come down and you're not in debt, you will be able to take advantage of certain opportunities. Um, you can also take advantage of if you rent, for instance, here in the United States, you can go in and say, "You know what? My lease is coming up, but I'm not paying that." You need to give me I'll pay $200 less a month. And they'll say, "Well, maybe go pound sand, but you can go down the street at that new multifamily complex is giving away three months free for rent." And so I think the silver lining is that for those that have been biting their time, paying down their debt, it they're going to have opportunities here this year to kind of take advantage of what I'll call some deflation um you know, in terms of some of these shelter costs, etc. And you know, I think for young Americans who also make the decision to um perhaps pursue a trade versus going into college uh without getting into debt that you know, again, they could be setting themsel up for some really good opportunities that we'll see, you know, starting to really it it so what I'm seeing is delinquency is rising and so by Q3 of 2026, I think that there is going to be more opportunity out there. it won't be in any way the bottom, but you know, um I think that people can start taking advantage of of this environment where prices are going down. >> Well, one item that's been in the news uh concerning the US has been this uh supposed fraud among Somali daycare centers in Minnesota. Uh you released an article on January 1st on your Substack titled Grifter Nation. Uh, you wrote, "While mainstream media plays partisan politics with the story and focuses on a specific group, I encourage you not to lose sight of this story's importance because it's not just in Minnesota. I've seen evidence of this fraud in my research and travels all over the country in both blue and red states." So, talk to us about why Minnesota is just the tip of the iceberg here and just how endemic is fraud and grifting when it comes to public private partnerships in the United States right now. >> Yeah. So I think it started at the end of the GFC Jesse and you know with kind of um like for instance in my company Black Rockck was brought in at the behest of kind of the government once we had TARP to uh help us with our asset sales dispositions and things. So what the government kind of did is move toward this model of public private partnership. Think about the prison system for instance uh you know that was run federally. Now you have a bunch of private corporations that run that. Um, and so what happened in that is, uh, you're probably too young to remember, but, uh, Clinton and Gore going on David Letterman and and you know, uh, talking about the $100 hammer or whatever, like all of this government bloat and they got rid of it. Well, what they did is they turned to private part these public private partnerships and then the bloat just came there. And so for instance, you know, the $20 bottle of water that you're giving a soldier overseas in the military or suddenly the milk that you give to prisoners is $15. You know, there just this grift becomes systemic and endemic. And so I, you know, I this is everywhere. and and it really went on steroids when um the American Rescue Plan came out and they sent over $300 billion to states, counties, municipalities, and they created these programs around affordable housing, around daycare, and often, you know, these were well-intended um programs, but this just it happened all over the country. And so, you know, this is one of the reasons why I think the economy is way, like your very first question, why it's way worse than most are seeing is that one of the only categories where we have seen job growth over the last year was in this education and health services category. And this is where all these jobs roll up. And so, if many of these jobs are actually fraudulent, then I think we're in a place in the economy that is way worse than most understand. And so which is being hidden by this AI mania but it it's everywhere Jesse it's and you know I give an example in that Substack of here in Tennessee Core Civic is who runs a prison here and and it's the same thing. And so they're they're getting rich. The prisoners aren't getting actually the provisions that they're supposed to get by law. Um and meanwhile you know these these people at the top of the grift are the only ones that are getting rich. And so it's not just about Minnesota. I spent 7 years in Minnesota, very familiar with that grift, but it's everywhere and I've seen it everywhere. >> The sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver Gold Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. can take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com. Make sure to tell them of course that commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. So, do you think that this story kind of breaking and being top of the news cycle and it's turned into kind of a Republican versus Democrat issue, do you think this is kind of a way for, you know, the Trump administration and and the Republican side to wrap this all up with a bow and say, "Well, we got Waltz to to not run. Um, we're going to probably, I don't know, arrest or charge some people and then case closed, we did it." And then that way the public will kind of be distracted from the fact that both sides are committing this sort of fraud all over the country. Is that how you think this is playing out? >> Well, so I think that this is, you know, you have to ask yourself, they could have taken Waltz down with this during the presidential election. And um this was this case, this has been going on for a very long time. You know, I saw evidence of it. I left uh Minnesota probably in 200 uh gosh uh 2011 and saw evidence like this. So uh why didn't they use it to take him down? You know, I I think this is kind of interesting. It's sort of paving the path for the Medicaid cuts that are going to go into effect in 2026. And so just an example here locally in East Tennessee, we have a local rural hospital that was destroyed during Helen. Well, they've decided not to rebuild that hospital um because of the Medicaid cuts. Now, had we not had Helen, uh that hospital would have probably been closed as well and because of those cuts. And so I think this is kind of uh the um body armor around the Medicaid cuts and and that are coming. And so when people and and you've already seen people going to their city council saying I'm not going to be able to get care like people in wheelchairs and things like this. Um I think this is the way that you kind of get uh a hall pass on those Medicaid cuts. Um but yeah, I you know I don't think that we're going to have some national awakening. Um, I think that this is just yet another um story to kind of distract us from the fact that we don't have jobs. We don't have the right kind of jobs to really make this economy pump again. >> Well, let's talk about the current state of the US housing market. You've alluded to a few things, but let's hone in on it. Uh, you recently mentioned that price cuts on listings in 85 cities UTRA are accelerating. What is that telling us about the overall trajectory of the housing market here in 2026? And are there any other data points that you could share with us to help paint an overall picture of where you see things headed? >> Sure. So, I track 85 cities around the country. You don't have to look at my work though. you know, Zillow came out and said that in I think 50 to 53% of markets, um, you'd seen value destruction of about 9.7%. Um, in terms of price reductions, then the problem is why aren't we seeing that in the actual results? Because nothing's selling. I mean, we we are on we are set to have the, you know, the worst housing market in existing home sales that we've seen since 1995. Some are saying 1982, you know, depending on which series you're looking at. Um, but it's just it's abysmal. And so, you know, I think uh what you're and I see it everywhere. I you know what I would encourage people to look at um is pick a house in your neighborhood that's for sale. Watch it. Watch and see what happens. There's one right down the street from me that they listed. Um, you know, they they before they even listed it, I saw the U-Haul, you know, it started out at like 450. Uh, it and that was listed probably in October. It's down to 3.99 and there's still no bets. And this is a very nice home. It's actually on a college, a local college here. It looks perfect for maybe a professor or something like that, but it's not going anywhere. And so, you know, the problem right now is that we don't have any transactions. So we can't actually see price discovery and the people that are transacting are of course uh you know the top 1% um or the ones that are being sort of what I would say lured into the market by these FHA programs or things like that but they're running out of those people. Uh you can see that with purchase applications the Fed tracks rejection rates that's over 20%. For the mortgage refinance it's over 42% um rejection rate. And so we're at a point where credit quality has degraded. Um and so people can't even get credit to participate in this market. And so unfortunately um the boomers, we also have this other thing, sorry, called rage dellisting where people are just pulling those homes off market because they can't get the price that they thought uh that the home was worth. Even though we've had recent articles in both Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal kind of saying, you know, you need to be a little more realistic about what you think your home is going to sell for, but how can you blame them? They've been looking at theirs estimate for years now and believing that number even though it is they never question how does that number get, you know, computed like how do they come up with that? and it's a very bad uh it's not a it's not a good estimate of what your home is because they use comps that are 20 m away. So, you know, I think that we're at the point where when we do start to really have meaningful transactions, that's when we're going to get the price discovery. And with foreclosures on the rise, those meaningful transactions are going to start to accelerate. And in Q2 of 2026, once kind of everybody uh the pig gets through the python of this FHA program, uh you are going to have meaningful foreclosures and it will start to impact price. >> Well, as an investor, when it comes to both residential and commercial real estate in the US, are there any segments of the market that look bullish right now or would you just be completely sitting on the sidelines at this point? Yeah, you're even seeing delinquency rise in industrial. You know, this is one of the funny thing about uh this data center narrative is that we should be seeing a ton of permits, right? We should be seeing a ton of activity if suddenly we're going to have this data center boom. Not sure how you get a permit on the moon yet, but I'm sure there's a way that you do that. Um but yeah, I you know, I I just don't see that happening. And so, you know, I I'm not I it it's um there's not really a sector that I would be excited about right now. Um unless I was you know what I would be doing right now is building a fund uh to be able to buy distress properties. That's what I would be doing. Um and you you are seeing uh transactions increase in the office space as people think things are bottoming. But I would just tell people I wrote a piece last week for Unicus Research called Greenshoots question mark because there's the industry always sees the green shoots and I said, you know, I took Dallas for example, which uh right now they have the second highest uh VA office vacancy in the country and they're building a 38tory office tower downtown where nobody wants to be. So that that vacancy is just going to increase. And what I said is only green shoots are the ones you're seeing, you know, in the cracks in the uh the parking lot of the abandoned buildings because that's that's what it is. Um so I I don't think there's any sector right now that um now senior housing is going to be something uh that people need to look at, but I think it's going to look very different from what people think of today. Like it's I don't think it's going to be nursing homes and and you can see that in the data right now. A lot of the securizations that have assisted living facilities in them are seeing very high delinquency because people are choosing to age in place instead. Let's talk about an article that was recently released in the Financial Times called private credit firms pile into consumer debt as risk-taking mounts. In it analyst Adam Josephson stated, "In 2025, private credit groups, including the likes of KKR, Blue Owl, and Sixth Street, either purchased or struck so-called forward flow agreements to purchase 136 billion of consumer loans. That number compared with just 10 billion in the previous year. What is going on in your view with this massive increase in consumer loan purchases? And what do you think the endgame of these private credit groups are?" Yeah. So, you have to kind of look at history and you know after the GFC you had the Basel 3 ingame and and you basically the banks had to pull back because they had capital ratios things you know certain assets were risk weighted a different way than others. And so they kind of pulled back on lending to Main Street. You can look at any bank's balance sheet and kind of see that on the consumer side where they didn't pull back um was to uh these these other in they were lending to other institutions and this is the only place you're actually seeing increase in lending by the banks and what these other institutions did is they they you know they're the smartest guys in the room Jesse like they thought they they understood lending and credit and um you know they use those inflated credit scores that we saw to uh and algorithms, you know, and I laugh because you can always game those um underwriting systems to kind of qualify borrowers. And so you had a whole bunch of people in this space that really don't understand credit and they are get they're about to get really um crucified, but because everybody always thinks they're smarter than everybody else. It's like, you know, I remember at a conference in probably 2022, a guy who was doing algam rhythmd driven home equity lending was like, I can't get anybody to talk to me. I said, well, dude, you got to understand like all of us that went through the GFC look at home equity loans and we cringe. I mean, I remember at my former company when we sold them for 10 cents on the dollar and then those things followed me around for years. Um so and but guess what happens? Everybody forgets or everybody believes the narrative that oh there's so much equity out there to a year probably not even a year 18 months later that guy's doing you know going gang busters with his company doing these home equity loans. A lot of times they're not even being properly reported to credit and so we don't actually understand the true picture of uh home equity out there at all. And but yeah, these companies have got in big and they're going to be hurt bigly. And you know, and this is probably why we're seeing so much stress um in the repo markets as well. >> Well, I have to get your take on precious metals as well. I know it's not an area you cover a lot, but I'm just wondering with both metals uh hitting new all-time highs recently in 2025, and from your perspective as a macro analyst, what do you make of this price action? And is the rapid rise of gold and silver telling us something about the underlying economy? >> Yeah. So I I don't you know I may not necessarily talk about it very often but it's I you know I believe in gold and silver and when people actually ask my advice which they should not about what to invest in you know that's that's what I tell them and I've been telling them for years you know um I I bought all my family little silver coins for Christmas in 2022 which I tell them now look at what it is now comparatively speaking um you know I don't trust any of this price action right now, Jesse, cuz I just I I think um it's probably the horse is way out of the barn and it's just it's running and galloping and nobody really knows what it's about to get into if you know what I mean. But, um you know, with silver, I think it's just so useful. uh and you know I think I think we'll probably talk about it but um what we're seeing is that the minerals we need uh the rare earth minerals that we need for uh you know people can say AI but it's really for weapons because I do believe we're kind of gearing up for war unfortunately um you know we we need these metals and so I think I think that that is a big part of the story. I also think um people just don't trust uh what I mean they don't trust the stock market. They don't trust what they're seeing and so they're kind of going to those hard assets. Um there was an article uh yesterday I think uh about China specifically and how high netw worth individuals are really u making a transition from real estate because it's it's an albatross. Like when you have rising property taxes, rising insurance, and you don't have home price appreciation, that thing becomes a losing asset very quickly. And so people are making the transition from real estate into metals. Um because you know uh and and I think there's probably some people that think that with the BBB you know inflation is going to run out of control. You know I think that what I've learned um you know diving into macro is that there is no one reason and everybody wants it to be one reason. Um, but in reality, if people are really sure about something, you need to you need to start asking questions because this world is very complicated and there's a lot of players and so I don't know exactly what to make of it, Jesse, but I'm I'm very cautious right now cuz I think there's a lot of shenanigans going on and and you know, I think about I think it was silver with JP Morgan Morgan several years ago, you know, thinking its vault was full of silver had that on their balance sheet. they open the doors and realized somebody had that those bags were full of, you know, dirt and somebody had stolen it. I kind of feel like we might suddenly see a lot more of that where uh there's been a lot of rehypothecation and so things could come I mean there could be a lot of dis uh it could the markets could become very disorderly and so I'm a conservative and when I see something like that I tend to kind of pull back until I actually know what's going on. Well, you spoke about potential uh war and tensions rising around the world. Uh I want to get your take on the military operation that took place in Venezuela and the arrest of President Nicholas Maduro. How do you see the situation playing out from here? Um how could you see it potentially impacting the economy if at all? And is Greenland next because at this point why not? I think uh Tracy Shukart or Chi Girl is how she's known on ex Twitter probably came out with the best article about this um and just really pointed to um it's not about oil, it's actually about the rare earths and it's also about China, Iran, and Russia having infrastructure or vested interest in the region that we needed uh to kind of put a kibash on. And so, you know, I think the the big narrative is oil, which, you know, when you really look into that, it's like, uh, do we really need I mean, it's that's not our biggest concern. And so, um, yeah, Greenland will probably be next. Um, you know, and what is really annoying to me about this is that nobody's being honest with the American public about what's really going on. I mean, we're talking about drugs. I mean, if we wanted to stop the drugs, Jesse, all we'd have to do is stop the money. I mean, we don't have to go in with guns ablazing and bombs like just shut down the money and and that would shut it down. So, this isn't about drugs. It's about those rare earth minerals more than likely. And you know, oil is a bonus uh and things like that. But in term, what does it mean? It just mean what I mean the biggest thing that it means to me is that we are not being told the truth about what's going on. Therefore, we have to be very mistrusting of those narratives. Um what it means for the economy, I I don't know. I And I think that um the forces that I just talked about, uh you know, the Medicaid cuts, uh the student loans, uh sudden there going to be a whole bunch of people that are going to have to in that save plan that will probably have to be have to start paying again. um you know if they do uh take those tax refunds I just think there's so many things coming for consumers that uh whatever you know oil investment or things um that could happen they might uh actually you know benefit a few but it's not going to benefit the economy full stop in my opinion >> yeah and it's amazing that today in 2025 we have people on on social media I've seen who still believe the American democracy Y reigns supreme, we take out an evil dictator. I mean, in all of these operations, of which there's been many post World War II, I believe over a hundred. Um, almost never or perhaps never does this actually benefit the people of the country where this takes place. There's so many examples. Um, but it's it's just interesting. Although I've heard that a lot of the pro the content online that's that's pro this move is is AI generator of bots. Who knows anymore online? >> Yeah. My favorite Jesse now it's like a little game with me is um I I figure out what kind of bot it is that's responding to me because it's it's wild like the housing bots are also the anti-Israel bots. Like it's it's really bizarre. And so it's kind of like it's now that I understand the game and it took me a couple years to understand the game. Um you can really start having fun with it and and just kind of you know there's a lot of clues out there if you're paying attention of what's really going on. And I think you can watch these things. They always have this pre-narrative that comes out. 50-year mortgage is a good example. there was some random poster on X that started talking about paying off his mortgage and everybody's like, "You're stupid. Why did you do that?" 3 days later, 50-year mortgage. I mean, you can just watch these things unfold. But I would, you know, I would encourage anybody that thinks that whatever you're reading online is true, like that is No, they're telling you something for a reason. Try to figure out why. And and you'll be better off in my opinion. >> Yes. Yes. I mean, we could talk about that topic alone for for a very long time, but I do want to shift to getting your take on the broad market at present. The indices also hitting all-time highs in 2025, continuing to grind higher despite calls from many analysts that things are massively overvalued, and there's no way this can continue. In your opinion, is the broad market in a bubble right now? And do you think 2026 could be the year that it finally bursts? >> It's definitely in a bubble. And you know AI is not what people think and you can believe in the technology without believing in the hype. Um and you can understand its limitations and so it's definitely a bubble but I could see us bubbling along for you know a little bit longer. Now March is always um you know that quarter just there's a lot of movement a lot of liquidity moving around things like that. You know that's when we saw the SVB bank failure. Uh, I always get Lehman and Bear Sterns mixed up, but that's when we saw one of them in March. And so, you know, March could be when we start to really where we might start to see some trouble. Um, and uh, but, you know, this is all this is allopium and this is all BS uh that we're skating along on now. And it's not going to matter till it matters. And I think that it's going to really start to matter in Q2 of 2026 when those foreclosures start to rise because when you have foreclosures, people can't really argue anymore that the economy is doing great. And you know, we'll probably get another random deep sea type event, right? we'll probably get some kind of oh my gosh you know we just jumped way ahead with a way to kind of configure the chips or that gives us xyz capacity but back to my point about why I I don't see permits for these new data centers so you know I think everybody is just uh pushing pushing pushing allowing your institutionals and uh to to exit and unfortunately you know retail will probably be left holding the bag as per usual. >> Yeah, it's interesting. I had our mutual friend Jack Gamble on the show recently to discuss the AI bubble and and he was basically saying all the hype behind it is essentially fraud and grifting. Going back to what we were talking about at the top of the show, we've seen some very strange behavior from OpenAI CEO Sam Olman as well as Palunteer CEO Alex Karp on camera. Very, very bizarre situation. and Sam Olman basically berating somebody for asking him, hey, if you have this much capex planned, like how does that even make sense? How are you going to make that money back and what's and what's the business model here? And Sam Alman said, you know what, you can sell your shares because I have buyers lined up for them. And then he said, enough as if as if it was like he was being harassed or accused of something falsely. It was so weird. Then we all know about carp bouncing around, probably coked up or something like that. at least he looks that way putting out these veiled short sellers are attacking us and it's insane. Um it it it leads me to believe that they have something to hide. What what are your thoughts here on this kind of off-the-wall behavior from these CEOs in the industry and does that kind of send off alarm bells in your mind? >> Yeah, so did they close that funding round? Uh, you know, I I think they were supposed to close it by the end of the year with SoftBank and they weren't close on open AI. I I haven't seen anything today, but yeah. No, you know, I have a friend uh Michael Ferris who does Coffee and a Mic and you know, he talks about this as like the superhero movie and and it very much is. And I see Karp and Altman is like these anti-heroes, right? They're I mean, they're crazy. They're absolutely crazy. I mean, Altman can't even finish his sentence. I mean, he doesn't even look real with Karp going around doing his handstand push-ups, you know, um, like you say, all coked out. I mean, I just think this is they're crazy and yeah, they're hiding something and it, you know, they're they're acting. This is all performance. Um, and and again, to just keep things going a little bit longer. And it's it's it's you know this cult this technology cult that they have um where people really believe like that we're going to beat death or something you know like and they've got so many people in this mindset that you know they can do these crazy things and people think that's great. I mean you look at Musk I mean what promise has he ever delivered and yet you know legions of people follow this man around. And so these to me they're all actors. Um, and I think I think between Altman and Wayne, one of them's going to be in jail by the end of the year. >> Very interesting, >> honestly. >> Well, Melody, this has been a fantastic conversation. Tell us about the M3 Melody Substack and anywhere else you want to direct people online. >> Sure. So, I write uh I write um you know frequently in the M3 Melody Substack just about what's going on in the economy. Um contextualize for housing specifically, but you know um a lot of people think I just need a good school in my neighborhood and that's why where I'm going to buy a house. But in reality, it's way more complicated than that. So, you can find that at M3 Melody Substack. And so, I kind of take these news stories that we talk about and I kind of relate them to housing and that. So, and encourage anybody just even the free version has a ton of data and information. Um, and then uh on X Twitter I'm M3_Melody and then infrequently I post on my YouTube channel M3 Melody YouTube. >> Great. I'll put links to all of that in the description below. Thank you so much Melody for coming on the show. It's been a blast. >> Thank you for having me. It's always my pleasure. >> Thank you for joining us today. Our sponsor is Ark Silver Gold Opium. They have some excellent prices right now on silver bullion products. They are appearing on your screen. 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