The U.S. Forced Europe Into a Fatal Billion-Dollar Mistake: Right NOW | Professor Jiang
Summary
Europe Financial Risk: Guest argues confiscating Russian assets would shatter investor confidence, trigger eurozone capital flight, and risk a European financial crisis.
Safe Haven Currencies: Preference for capital moving into the US dollar and Swiss franc over precious metals, given constraints on gold/silver as a systemic-collapse bet.
Gold: Despite gold at $4,300, the guest sees limited upside because broad adoption implies betting on a total financial collapse.
Energy/Venezuela: Expectation of a US oil shipment embargo and limited air strikes on Venezuela, elevating oil market and shipping risks but likely managed to avoid major escalation.
US China Trade: Forecast that Trump will leverage food and energy chokepoints to push a trade/consumption deal with China, aiming to resolve the trade war and tap Chinese consumer demand.
Education Services: Potential surge in Chinese student flows to the US as part of a trade détente, with bank-financed tuition and US colleges possibly opening campuses in China.
Geopolitics/Defense: War in Ukraine expected to be decided on the battlefield with a strategic focus on Odessa; rising European defense outlays add to regional instability.
Companies Mentioned: Huawei and Gazprom referenced contextually (no direct stock pitches), alongside discussion of Nvidia’s Blackwell-class chips indirectly via AI chip restrictions.
Transcript
€210 billion euros. That's what the EU is trying to take away from Russia as we speak. They're meeting in Brussels and are discussing what are we going to do with the frozen assets. And then of course, what is happening in the in the Caribbean? What's happening outside of Venezuela? The US has been seizing oil tankers and I'm hearing that a strike on Venezuela might be imminent. What is going on? How is this all connected? Um, I've invited a fantastic fantastic guest on the program. His our our last interview was was one of the most watched on our channel here. His name is Professor Jang. He has the Predictive History YouTube channel. He's closing in on a million subscribers on that channel. Phenomenal phenomenal content. I'm excited that he's spending the next 30 minutes here with us to to really tie a bow around what is happening on a global scale. And if we find the time, we'll also throw gold into the discussion cuz we're trading at $4,300 an ounce. And there's more to it than just a few retail investors buying up the precious metal here. So, we we'll get to all of this and I'm really excited that he's joining us. Before I switch over though, hit that like and subscribe button. Means a lot to us. It's a great way to show your support and it doesn't cost you a thing. So much appreciated. And Professor Jung, it's a great pleasure to have you back on the program. It's good to see you again. >> Thanks, Kai. >> Yeah, really looking forward to this conversation. I mentioned to you like there's a few topics that we need to get through and as it is very topical and timely. We need to start in in Europe. Um it is happening today. The EU is discussing what to do with the 210 billion euros that it has frozen um or Russian assets that are frozen that are mostly sitting in in Belgium right now. Um run us through a little bit. Give us the highlights first, but also like what what do you expect implications to be here? >> Yeah. So what I analyst say and I agree with this analysis is that 210 plus um billion dollars it's a trap for Europe. It's almost like a a bomb that's in their hands. It's a grenade that's that's going to blow up in their faces. And the reason why is that it sounds like a lot of money uh 200 uh plus billion dollars that Europe can use to finance the war in Ukraine especially now that the United States seems to be withdrawing its support. The problem though is that you trade in your credibility, right? You trade in your um legal credibility in the eyes of investors. And so if they were to go ahead and confiscate um steal that 200 plus billion dollars, Putin would be extremely happy because what's happened is that the Europeans have basically shot themselves in the face and the banking system, the financial system um has lost all credibility. investors would flee the Euro zone and we could see the um imminent collapse of the European financial system. Uh we also have to remember that the Americans basically wash their hands of the Europeans. If you look at the national security um strategy published by the White House um this past week, it's very clear that uh the Americans are not very optimistic about what's happening in Europe. Uh Europe uh has basically um it's the Americans believe that Europe could at any at any point implode financially. Um the fundamentals are all off. This war in Ukraine is lost, but they continue to fight it. So Europe is in a very tough position. Um but you know, if they do confiscate that $20 billion, Putin has said this. He thinks it's the best money he's ever spent. >> No, that that's that's a that's a interesting point. best money ever spent because the EU is like I mentioned it to you as well like we have historical evidence albeit only three years ago when the west took Russia off the Swiss swift system. We've seen sort of maybe the the firing gun or the starting the start like when you have the race takeoff for a collapse of the western financial system. Um people were fleeing the US dollar. The gold price has exploded as I mentioned earlier $4,300 an ounce. Um let's get a bit more I wouldn't say dramatic but granular perhaps on the collapse of the euro system if that were to happen loss of confidence you already hinted at. What are some of the other factors and like how will this play out? What should we be looking to or forward to? >> Yeah. So the first comment I would make is that there's a limit to how much gold and silver can go up because if you're buying gold and silver you're betting that the entire global financial system collapses and that's a very hard bet for investors to make. So I think like the most likely uh scenario is that investors look for safer currencies and this can include the US dollar, this could include the Swiss Frank. Um but um the the Euro dollar as it stands, it's very hard to maintain its integrity. Um the European leadership does not seem to know what it's doing. uh investors feel as though this war in Ukraine is lost but Europe continues to fight this war. Uh Germany, Poland, uh Romania, uh Croatia have all announced the possibility of a draft uh conscription. Um, so it seems as though the Europeans are going to go allin in this war and as an investor you have to look at the future and quite honestly the future is not very bright for the Europeans but again the I mean the possibility of all this money going to gold and silver it's very limited because what do you do with this gold and silver? So I think the most likely scenario is um possibly investors fleeing towards the US dollar um and the Swiss Frank. >> Interesting. Yeah. I know cuz um you made an interesting point earlier. The US has or is not optimistic about Europe and uh I'm I'm in Europe here obviously I'm watching what is going on around us here but u maybe to to bring it back to that topic is like does it feel like the US actually forced the EU into that position? Isn't it the result of what the US diplomacy and politics sort of forced upon Europe and now they're sort of stepping it back? So I'm curious like it it sounds like a bit of a conspiracy theory that the US was trying to break us or maybe keep us down. So I'm curious what your thought what your thought process on that topic is as well. >> Um you know in the national security strategy uh the Americans are very clear about the issues in Europe. Um they believe that the eur Europeans are not encourage entrepreneurship. The Europeans have a nanny state a welfare state. They don't protect freedom of speech. Second of all, uh the Europeans are betraying Western civilization and Western values. Uh they're embracing DEI. They're embracing woke values. Um and uh the Americans feel as as though the Europeans have basically decided to rely purely on American muscle uh to carry the day and the Europeans don't refuse to set up. Okay? And that is the American attitude and it's complete nonsense. Okay? If you are European, you have the Americans to thank for all this malaise that you're facing. Uh the German economy for the longest time was reliant on uh Russian cheap energy and the Chinese market and and because of uh America's trade war with China, that market has been lost to the Germans. And also the North Pipeline was blown up by the Americans. Everyone knows this. Um it's not public. It's not official, but everyone knows that it's Americans who have the most to benefit from destruction of the Nordstream pipeline. And that forced the Germans now to buy American liqufied gas at 50% premium. Okay? So, they're paying 50 50% more for energy. This winter is going to be a very harsh one for for winter and um you know the energy price is going to skyrocket. This war in Ukraine was started by aggressive NATO expansion led by the Americans. uh Putin has tried to reach out to many American presidents and and he was always rebuffed and NATO kept on expanding and expanding. This is not to the u defense and benefit of Europe. The Soviet Union was gone. So why this constant aggression against Russia? Then you have 2015 and 2015 marked a turning point because that's when all these immigrants were flooding Europe. Um these immigrants came from where? They came from Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, all these nations that Americans bomb and bomb into smiththerines, forcing their people to leave their homes and make this um arduous, dangerous trek into Europe. These immigrants did not want to go to Europe. They were forced to go into Europe. And the Europeans under Angel Marco decided, we'll just let them in. Um I don't know why she made that decision. and conspiracy theorists would say, "Oh, this is pos possibly part of a grand conspiracy to undermine the European Union." Um, so if you're conspiracy theorist, you have a lot of reason to think that Americans are trying to sabotage Europe. >> Yeah. No. Is it is it really conspiracy theory if it really turned out to be true, right? And a lot of those theories have turned out to be true over the last six years here, unfortunately. Right. Um, which is a problem. And Europe got too close to Russia as well. You you just pointed out Angela Merkel Gajad Shruda. He's even on the board of Gasprom. I think he's been removed or has left since. But Europe was very very close to Russia and that was probably a thorn in the eye of the the US as well that we got too close to them. Is that a fair assumption or assessment here? >> Look, remember the scene in uh Trump's first term at the United Nations, he basically said that it's a problem that Germany is too reliant on Russian energy. And he pointed out the Northam pipeline. And you'll remember the video because um these German diplomats at the United Nations were at the back just laughing their heads off thinking that this guy's a He doesn't understand geopolitics. But then when Joe Biden came in office, he Joe Biden repeat the same thing. Joe Biden said that listen, this Northstream pipeline is a problem and we we'll do something about it. And the reporter asked him what what are you going to do about it? And Joe said, well we you'll see you'll see. Okay. And then it got blown up. So, um, yeah. >> Yeah. No, it's the question is like how does this all play out? Germany just approved 55 billion euros in in defense spending just yesterday. The Bundes approved it. Um, so, so how is this situation in Europe going to play out? Are we going to see the 28 point peace plan come into action? Um, how do you see this play out, Jim? Professor Jim, >> so I think that the problem is that the Europeans have lost national sovereignty. They have lost um autonomous decision-m uh decisions. Uh they have lost autonomous decision-m ability and power. Okay? So they are um constrained by American interests. Remember the American military still controls Europe. You've got thousands, tens of thousands of American troops still stationed in Germany. Um NATO is still very much an American operation. So uh Americans want the Europeans to go off and fight in Ukraine. Okay. Um and and you have these uh leaders in uh Europe. You have Starmer in Britain, Mcronone in France, Merse in Germany. They're extremely unpopular. The people don't want them around and they're incompetent. They don't know what they doing. They're they don't have any vision. They're intelligence operatives um in many ways. And so they're going to do what they're told. They're not going to represent the people. They're not think about what's in the best interest of Europe. They're just going to do what they're told. And third of all, this is most important is the idea of sunk costy where Europe has invested invested too much in this war in Ukraine. And you know the entire uh European strategy is we'll we'll win this war against Russia and we'll enforce an indemnity against Russia just like what we did in war one and World War II. Okay. And and and and that's the entire strategy. And the Europeans never imagined the possibility that they would lose the war and all this collateral they were banking on, all this land, these minerals, these resources um that they had banked on Ukraine would be lost. And so um you know, it's very much a gambler's mentality where you go to the casino, you've lost a million dollars, and you can't leave because you can't go home and face your wife >> or you're pot committed already. So you got to keep throwing bad money after good here, right? So, um, so you can't really get out of that situation, but out of those 28 points in the peace plan, like it it read to me like it was written back in March 2022 and it could have been signed in April 2022 as well. Um, like are there any points that you say, well, they're non-negotiable or something that will completely drastically change maybe even the map and the landscape uh in in Europe. >> Look, the reality is that Russia will not agree to a ceasefire. Russia wants peace. Russia wants permanent peace and that means resolving the uh Ukraine issue. And so if you look at the map um the Russia basically if it takes Odessa the war is over. Why? Because if it takes Odessa then it controls the entire Black Sea uh coast and NATO cannot have any naval presence in the Black Sea. So Odessa is the key and they haven't discussed Odessa but that's what what Russia really wants and that's what NATO and Ukraine won't give up because if Russia were to take Odessa then Ukraine would become a landlocked country. Uh remember that the industrial and agricultural heartland of Ukraine is actually in eastern Ukraine not western Ukraine. Western Ukraine is actually a very poor uh um resource poor area. And so if um if um Russia were to take Odessa then western Ukraine will become a rupt state completely reliant on uh European welfare and generosity. So um but unless Russia takes Odessa then Putin knows that the Europeans will keep on pressing. Okay. The ceasefire is just meant for Europe to prepare for full scale war and for Ukraine to rearm itself. Do do you see this war ending in 2026? I'm trying to put some time frames around it just to understand like okay where is this ending or do you see full-scale escalation in 27 28 like some people predict here already. >> Um I don't see this war ending except on the battlefield. Um Europe will try to reinforce Ukraine front lines because it seems as though Ukrainian front lines have collapsed. Definitely the morale has collapsed. You have hundreds of thousands in desertions. Um the Ukrainians don't even know why they're fighting this war anymore. Uh the war is lost. The Russians have high morale and the Russian the Russians are uh advancing uh pretty widely across the front lines. So the Europeans will try to reinforce the front lines. So send in some volunteers and eventually what the Europeans will recognize is that the front lines cannot be held. So they will reinforce Odessa. Okay. So that's how I see the war going. Like all this I talk of ceasefire, negotiate settlements. It's a delaying tactic because Putin has said this repeatedly where um the Americans, the Europeans will not stop fighting the war until Russia has collapsed. >> Fair enough. A very grim picture. Um I yeah I hope this plays out in a positive way, but I'm not sure diplomacy will work here anymore. So that's uh very frustrating to to to witness that here from from a European perspective being in Germany as well, of course. Um you you touched on the national security strategy earlier and it's maybe the segue to our next topic here and that's Venezuela and uh the US is really trying to get a strangle hold on Latin America of course so countries like China, Russia don't get access into Latin America and Venezuela is playing a pivotal role here. It is partially financed by China. China is buying Russ Venezuelan oil for example. Um what is the current situation here? What what should we be expecting? Do you see a military strike in the next 24 hours, 48 hours or just near shortly here? >> Um so the national security um strategy it's very clear. It presents something called the Trump corellery and the idea of that is that Trump will now enforce the Monroe Doctrine. The idea of the Monroe doctrine is the western hemisphere belongs entirely to America. America is responsible for protecting Western Hemisphere from foreign influence and Trump has been clear that Russia and China have been intervening too much in the Western Hemisphere. I think like this goes back to the trade war with China. So, um, Trump imposed these sanctions on China. China responded by refusing to buy American agricultural products, thinking that it would hurt, uh, Trump's electoral prospects. And and then China start to buy soy beans, beef from Brazil, from South America. China imports a third of its food from South America. So, China needs that market access. And what Trump is saying is that, you know, you want to play this game, then we'll play this game, right? Trump is a gorilla. Uh when he negotiates, he's going to negotiate negotiate to the end. So what he wants to do is cut off China's oil and food supply and force China to negotiating table. What Trump is really after is in 2026, he's going to have four meetings with the Chinese president. Um in April, he's scheduled for a state visit to Beijing. what he needs to do is resolve this USChina uh trade war. Um and the reason why is America is $38 trillion in debt. And if he looks around if he looks around the world, if he talks to his adviserss, there's only one source that can absorb all this debt and it's a Chinese consumer, right? So ch uh Trump wants to say to China, listen, when we when you first enter WTO, you agreed to liberalize your financial markets. You agreed that your Chinese consumers would buy more from the west and you have done you have you have renegged on all this agreement. So hey you either agree to liberalize your financial markets and let Chinese consumers spend more money or we will embargo you and that is what's underlying this conflict in Venezuela. >> Very interesting picture because it covers a lot of topics that I want to discuss with you in more detail anyway because Trump said that very openly about China having to stimulate its own economy so it can actually buy more. He he actually said that almost word for word here um about six months ago or pretty much right after he came into office. So um right around that time um can China even fulfill those let's say promises or statements? That's the other question we talked about 6 months ago as well that China was a bit in a I think we said deflationary spiral perhaps. So um maybe we'll start there and then we come back to Venezuela. But can China even fulfill those requests that the US has or the west has um towards them? Look, China is first and foremost focused on protecting international sovereignty. It knows what happens when you start to let in western bankers. They come and they become parasites. They steal resources from you. They bankrupt you. They promise you all this easy credit, all this easy money. You become addicted to easy money just as like China, the Chinese became addicted to opium 150 years ago. And the Chinese know exactly how that happened and what happened. And so there's no way that China would agree to liberalize its financial markets. Um, so the only place for negotiation is the Chinese consumer. The problem though is that because China is in a deflation spiral, this means the Chinese consumer is not that optimistic about the future. If you're not optimistic of the future, you're not going to borrow money to spend on money. Okay, so that's a sticking point >> that that's exactly the thing like borrow money. Like China is stimulating though, like they're throwing money at the economy. The real estate market is struggling. That's what we're reading here in the West of course. Um, but that money is not seeping into the West. And now the China also like the coming back to the AI war. It's interesting how all this comes full full full swing or full circle. Um China said well we're not even going to buy your chips anymore. Um cuz that China sovereignty perhaps like Hui I hear has really good technology now as well. they caught up quite well um to the Blackwell series and like I'm really trying to like frame this like is this like are we in a um what do you call it like a non no win scenario for for both sides here and it's just escalating and they're just pushing each other higher and higher perhaps. >> Okay, there's one out. Okay, um this is what I think is most likely to happen. Um Chinese consumers spend money on education. So if it's possible that the Chinese government agrees to lend money to Chinese consumers to send their kids to United States and Europe to study abroad, um then Chinese parents might make that sacrifice. You know, Trump has talked openly about welcoming um 600,000 Chinese students to America for undergraduate. That's twice the number uh right now. Uh mo these parents can't afford it, but Chinese banks would be willing to make loans, personal loans to these parents who send their kids abroad. So I think that might be a solution. I'm not I'm not sure that Chinese consumers would go for it. Um but that is possibly an out for both sides and um Trump would agree to not allow Taiwan to declare independence. Okay. And that might be the uh deal that they strike. Okay. But I think they will strike a deal. It's just a question of what the specifics are. >> Well, Trump has already left the door open in terms of education. like well he he cut it off early on but then he opened the door right away again it's like of course we're happy to have Chinese students come study in the US like again that was almost verbatim what he said um so um I think the door is open they just need to be willing to do it uh at the end right so it's it's really interesting um >> look look Chinese students the the most of the US higher education system would collapse okay mo many many American students are recognizing that going to college it's a stupid deal you spend you know, tens of thousand dollars a year to like drink beer and watch football games. You couldn't do that at home. Okay. So, um you know, if they need to resolve this issue, uh they need to get more and more Chinese students into America and um and they they need to do it very quickly. It's also possible that you will have an increasing number of US colleges set up shop in China. They will charge US dollar tuition, uh but it'll be a lot cheaper experience for Chinese students. So, I think there are some workarounds. >> Well, it looks like there's an like I I kind of like that because I like the positivity that you're sort of spreading here that there is actually a possibility of a solution here and through education because that's how peace is being brokered and uh um that's just how it works. I I like that. I like that positivity here, Professor Jang. Um but coming back to Venezuela, unfortunately, which is a bit more of a darker topic. Um how how do you see this situation resolved? Like US is very close to a strike. Is China willing to step in on the behalf of Venezuela perhaps? I haven't heard much personally and I haven't I haven't researched the topic in in in too great of a detail, but has China made any announcements or said anything like if you do this, we will do that. >> Okay. So, China imports 80% uh of Venezuela. So, China is basically uh Venezuel's biggest customer. China is what props up the Venezuelan economy. China has been very explicit. China said that even though we support Venezuela, we will not intervene either economically or militarily in Venezuela because China respects the mineral doctrine. Okay, so China here is very um explicit. Um as to what will actually happen, I think that Trump has already announced that he's going to embargo the Venezuelan oil shipments. That is basically declaration of war. Okay. Okay, the problem is like how do you actually enforce that and what will enforcement actually look like? Trump has also said that he will launch air strikes against Venezuela. Okay, so um he will launch air strikes. The question then is um how serious will these air strikes be? Because remember when when um a few months ago, Trump or um ordered Operation Midnight Hammer and it was, you know, a couple stealth uh bombers dropping buster bombers on an empty Iranian facility and it was mainly just um about face and showing that America does have the capacity to strike Iran. Um they informed the Iranians beforehand to avoid casualties and escalation. And I think that you we might see we might see a similar situation in Venezuela where both sides are playing chicken. You know, both sides are, you know, huffing and puffing, but they don't they don't want to go to war because no one benefits from going to war. Right now, uh, America has assembled 10% of its naval force in the Caribbean. That's 15,000 uh, Marines. That's not enough >> to launch an amphibious operation against Venezuela, especially because the people of Venezuela are united against uh the possibility of American invasion. You have guerilla warfare everywhere. These air strikes don't really do anything except galvanize the people, galvanize the national people. Um, so I think that there will be conflict, but I think this conflict will be managed to avoid escalation and a lot of it will just be huffing and puffing because ultimately both sides benefit from coming to an agreement. Um, but they need to uh, you know, huff and puff and show off and play chicken before they come come to that actual agreement in order to save face. >> What would the US need to hear from Maduro to sort of say, "Okay, we're happy. um let let's move on. Let's put a end to this conflict. What would they need to hear? >> Right. So I think Trump is thinking of the bigger picture which is the he wants to enforce Monroe doctrine. So he wants the entirety of South America under control. So Venezuela it's for show. It's to show what could happen to nations who defy the Americans. Okay. So if Venezuela falls and Cuba and Nicaragua would follow and then possibly other nations as as well. So from Trump's perspective, he needs to he needs to show that he is capable of militarily attacking Venezuela, but at the same time, he wants to show that he's generous and open to negotiation. So I what I think will happen is that maybe in a six-month timeline, you will have escalation and you will have some erratic and sporadic behavior in that Trump is launching air strikes, but they're not directed against Venezuela. They're directed against Colombia and Mexico. They sort of miss Venezuela. the they for Venezuela that hit Colombia and Mexico and this confuses everyone. The reason why Trump is doing that is one he's trying to um leave the room open for negotiation with Maduro. And second of all, he's trying to show the all of South America, I can hit anyone anywhere, you know, I'm crazy. Okay. Um and third is that he's trying to enforce the doctrine and warn off Russian or Chinese u intervention. >> Okay. No, fair enough. And maybe one last question, and that's a very pointed one, but um could this escalate into something bigger, and I do mean World War III here. Does it have the potential? I'm I'm quite positive based on what you're saying that this is just a small like storm in a water class perhaps, but uh I'm curious what your take on it is and whether I'm interpreting it the the way you're seeing it as well. >> You know, that's a great question. Look, like from a game theory perspective, um we should not expect the escalation to increase more than two air strikes. Okay? I think Trump may launch some minor air strikes against Venezuela and then this will uh lead to negotiations which will lead to a peace treaty where basically Venezuela agrees an economic vassel of the United States. So if nothing happens and I think that's most likely to happen but in geopolitics there are all always a possibility of a conflict somewhere else. Okay. So maybe you know you know Trump is facing a lot of resistance in America. Maybe there's some riots going on. Trump needs to distract the American people, so he launches an amphibious invasion of Venezuela. Okay. Or possibly the conflict between Israel and Iran heat up. Um it's possible that um you know his advisers, his donors pressure him to do something. Okay. So um it's a dangerous game. Um I think I think that peace will prevail in the end. But you're right in that something unexpected could happen and this could escalate. Okay. It's possible that that American pilot he's you know breaking into Venezuela airspace and then Venezuelans accidentally shooting down right because you have Wanganger forces in Venezuela. You have Cuban forces in Venezuela as well. It's possible they might want an escalation. So there are some unknowns a lot of unknowns here. um and things could escalate very quickly, but given the situation as it is, I don't think things will happen that way. >> Yeah, perfect. That's a positive note we'll end on, Professor Jung. Um we we'll take the positive here. Um really appreciate your time. Like absolutely insightful. This is probably the best 30 minutes I've spent here on this channel the last two three weeks easily. Uh really great content. Um if our audience doesn't know you for any reason whatsoever yet, where can we send them to follow more of your work? Yeah. So I have a Substack uh predictive history substack and that's where I write on geopolitics and so I try to cover as much breaking news as possible. So for example this weekend uh was this um you know tragic shooting in in Australia which affected the Jewish diaspora and um you know I did a lot of research and I and I wrote an essay explaining how I why I think this happened and what it could lead to. So I do I do a lot of analysis. Um, I just don't report the news. I try to give you uh the background and the context to the news. >> No, fantastic. And we've just seen uh what that context and background is. Really, really fascinating what is going on around the globe right now. Professor Jung, tremendously appreciate your time. It's great to catch up with you again. Can't wait to do this again in 2026 because there's so much going on. I'd love to have you back more often. Absolutely. So, um, tremendously appreciate it. Thank you so much and, uh, you know, enjoy the weekend. Happy holiday season. Um, really hope you have a wonderful time and can't wait to catch up next year. So, looking forward to that and everybody else. Thank you so much for watching. I tremendously enjoyed the conversation here with Professor Jung. Really insightful, connecting a lot of dots, a lot of moving parts um here around the globe, whether it's in Europe, in the US, Venezuela, China. Lot lots going on. And I hope you found this insightful. If you did, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously bringing guests like Professor Jung here onto the channel. Much appreciated. And uh in the meantime, if we don't see each other again, merry Christmas, happy holidays, and all the best for 2026. We'll be back with lots more here, though. Stay tuned.
The U.S. Forced Europe Into a Fatal Billion-Dollar Mistake: Right NOW | Professor Jiang
Summary
Transcript
€210 billion euros. That's what the EU is trying to take away from Russia as we speak. They're meeting in Brussels and are discussing what are we going to do with the frozen assets. And then of course, what is happening in the in the Caribbean? What's happening outside of Venezuela? The US has been seizing oil tankers and I'm hearing that a strike on Venezuela might be imminent. What is going on? How is this all connected? Um, I've invited a fantastic fantastic guest on the program. His our our last interview was was one of the most watched on our channel here. His name is Professor Jang. He has the Predictive History YouTube channel. He's closing in on a million subscribers on that channel. Phenomenal phenomenal content. I'm excited that he's spending the next 30 minutes here with us to to really tie a bow around what is happening on a global scale. And if we find the time, we'll also throw gold into the discussion cuz we're trading at $4,300 an ounce. And there's more to it than just a few retail investors buying up the precious metal here. So, we we'll get to all of this and I'm really excited that he's joining us. Before I switch over though, hit that like and subscribe button. Means a lot to us. It's a great way to show your support and it doesn't cost you a thing. So much appreciated. And Professor Jung, it's a great pleasure to have you back on the program. It's good to see you again. >> Thanks, Kai. >> Yeah, really looking forward to this conversation. I mentioned to you like there's a few topics that we need to get through and as it is very topical and timely. We need to start in in Europe. Um it is happening today. The EU is discussing what to do with the 210 billion euros that it has frozen um or Russian assets that are frozen that are mostly sitting in in Belgium right now. Um run us through a little bit. Give us the highlights first, but also like what what do you expect implications to be here? >> Yeah. So what I analyst say and I agree with this analysis is that 210 plus um billion dollars it's a trap for Europe. It's almost like a a bomb that's in their hands. It's a grenade that's that's going to blow up in their faces. And the reason why is that it sounds like a lot of money uh 200 uh plus billion dollars that Europe can use to finance the war in Ukraine especially now that the United States seems to be withdrawing its support. The problem though is that you trade in your credibility, right? You trade in your um legal credibility in the eyes of investors. And so if they were to go ahead and confiscate um steal that 200 plus billion dollars, Putin would be extremely happy because what's happened is that the Europeans have basically shot themselves in the face and the banking system, the financial system um has lost all credibility. investors would flee the Euro zone and we could see the um imminent collapse of the European financial system. Uh we also have to remember that the Americans basically wash their hands of the Europeans. If you look at the national security um strategy published by the White House um this past week, it's very clear that uh the Americans are not very optimistic about what's happening in Europe. Uh Europe uh has basically um it's the Americans believe that Europe could at any at any point implode financially. Um the fundamentals are all off. This war in Ukraine is lost, but they continue to fight it. So Europe is in a very tough position. Um but you know, if they do confiscate that $20 billion, Putin has said this. He thinks it's the best money he's ever spent. >> No, that that's that's a that's a interesting point. best money ever spent because the EU is like I mentioned it to you as well like we have historical evidence albeit only three years ago when the west took Russia off the Swiss swift system. We've seen sort of maybe the the firing gun or the starting the start like when you have the race takeoff for a collapse of the western financial system. Um people were fleeing the US dollar. The gold price has exploded as I mentioned earlier $4,300 an ounce. Um let's get a bit more I wouldn't say dramatic but granular perhaps on the collapse of the euro system if that were to happen loss of confidence you already hinted at. What are some of the other factors and like how will this play out? What should we be looking to or forward to? >> Yeah. So the first comment I would make is that there's a limit to how much gold and silver can go up because if you're buying gold and silver you're betting that the entire global financial system collapses and that's a very hard bet for investors to make. So I think like the most likely uh scenario is that investors look for safer currencies and this can include the US dollar, this could include the Swiss Frank. Um but um the the Euro dollar as it stands, it's very hard to maintain its integrity. Um the European leadership does not seem to know what it's doing. uh investors feel as though this war in Ukraine is lost but Europe continues to fight this war. Uh Germany, Poland, uh Romania, uh Croatia have all announced the possibility of a draft uh conscription. Um, so it seems as though the Europeans are going to go allin in this war and as an investor you have to look at the future and quite honestly the future is not very bright for the Europeans but again the I mean the possibility of all this money going to gold and silver it's very limited because what do you do with this gold and silver? So I think the most likely scenario is um possibly investors fleeing towards the US dollar um and the Swiss Frank. >> Interesting. Yeah. I know cuz um you made an interesting point earlier. The US has or is not optimistic about Europe and uh I'm I'm in Europe here obviously I'm watching what is going on around us here but u maybe to to bring it back to that topic is like does it feel like the US actually forced the EU into that position? Isn't it the result of what the US diplomacy and politics sort of forced upon Europe and now they're sort of stepping it back? So I'm curious like it it sounds like a bit of a conspiracy theory that the US was trying to break us or maybe keep us down. So I'm curious what your thought what your thought process on that topic is as well. >> Um you know in the national security strategy uh the Americans are very clear about the issues in Europe. Um they believe that the eur Europeans are not encourage entrepreneurship. The Europeans have a nanny state a welfare state. They don't protect freedom of speech. Second of all, uh the Europeans are betraying Western civilization and Western values. Uh they're embracing DEI. They're embracing woke values. Um and uh the Americans feel as as though the Europeans have basically decided to rely purely on American muscle uh to carry the day and the Europeans don't refuse to set up. Okay? And that is the American attitude and it's complete nonsense. Okay? If you are European, you have the Americans to thank for all this malaise that you're facing. Uh the German economy for the longest time was reliant on uh Russian cheap energy and the Chinese market and and because of uh America's trade war with China, that market has been lost to the Germans. And also the North Pipeline was blown up by the Americans. Everyone knows this. Um it's not public. It's not official, but everyone knows that it's Americans who have the most to benefit from destruction of the Nordstream pipeline. And that forced the Germans now to buy American liqufied gas at 50% premium. Okay? So, they're paying 50 50% more for energy. This winter is going to be a very harsh one for for winter and um you know the energy price is going to skyrocket. This war in Ukraine was started by aggressive NATO expansion led by the Americans. uh Putin has tried to reach out to many American presidents and and he was always rebuffed and NATO kept on expanding and expanding. This is not to the u defense and benefit of Europe. The Soviet Union was gone. So why this constant aggression against Russia? Then you have 2015 and 2015 marked a turning point because that's when all these immigrants were flooding Europe. Um these immigrants came from where? They came from Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, all these nations that Americans bomb and bomb into smiththerines, forcing their people to leave their homes and make this um arduous, dangerous trek into Europe. These immigrants did not want to go to Europe. They were forced to go into Europe. And the Europeans under Angel Marco decided, we'll just let them in. Um I don't know why she made that decision. and conspiracy theorists would say, "Oh, this is pos possibly part of a grand conspiracy to undermine the European Union." Um, so if you're conspiracy theorist, you have a lot of reason to think that Americans are trying to sabotage Europe. >> Yeah. No. Is it is it really conspiracy theory if it really turned out to be true, right? And a lot of those theories have turned out to be true over the last six years here, unfortunately. Right. Um, which is a problem. And Europe got too close to Russia as well. You you just pointed out Angela Merkel Gajad Shruda. He's even on the board of Gasprom. I think he's been removed or has left since. But Europe was very very close to Russia and that was probably a thorn in the eye of the the US as well that we got too close to them. Is that a fair assumption or assessment here? >> Look, remember the scene in uh Trump's first term at the United Nations, he basically said that it's a problem that Germany is too reliant on Russian energy. And he pointed out the Northam pipeline. And you'll remember the video because um these German diplomats at the United Nations were at the back just laughing their heads off thinking that this guy's a He doesn't understand geopolitics. But then when Joe Biden came in office, he Joe Biden repeat the same thing. Joe Biden said that listen, this Northstream pipeline is a problem and we we'll do something about it. And the reporter asked him what what are you going to do about it? And Joe said, well we you'll see you'll see. Okay. And then it got blown up. So, um, yeah. >> Yeah. No, it's the question is like how does this all play out? Germany just approved 55 billion euros in in defense spending just yesterday. The Bundes approved it. Um, so, so how is this situation in Europe going to play out? Are we going to see the 28 point peace plan come into action? Um, how do you see this play out, Jim? Professor Jim, >> so I think that the problem is that the Europeans have lost national sovereignty. They have lost um autonomous decision-m uh decisions. Uh they have lost autonomous decision-m ability and power. Okay? So they are um constrained by American interests. Remember the American military still controls Europe. You've got thousands, tens of thousands of American troops still stationed in Germany. Um NATO is still very much an American operation. So uh Americans want the Europeans to go off and fight in Ukraine. Okay. Um and and you have these uh leaders in uh Europe. You have Starmer in Britain, Mcronone in France, Merse in Germany. They're extremely unpopular. The people don't want them around and they're incompetent. They don't know what they doing. They're they don't have any vision. They're intelligence operatives um in many ways. And so they're going to do what they're told. They're not going to represent the people. They're not think about what's in the best interest of Europe. They're just going to do what they're told. And third of all, this is most important is the idea of sunk costy where Europe has invested invested too much in this war in Ukraine. And you know the entire uh European strategy is we'll we'll win this war against Russia and we'll enforce an indemnity against Russia just like what we did in war one and World War II. Okay. And and and and that's the entire strategy. And the Europeans never imagined the possibility that they would lose the war and all this collateral they were banking on, all this land, these minerals, these resources um that they had banked on Ukraine would be lost. And so um you know, it's very much a gambler's mentality where you go to the casino, you've lost a million dollars, and you can't leave because you can't go home and face your wife >> or you're pot committed already. So you got to keep throwing bad money after good here, right? So, um, so you can't really get out of that situation, but out of those 28 points in the peace plan, like it it read to me like it was written back in March 2022 and it could have been signed in April 2022 as well. Um, like are there any points that you say, well, they're non-negotiable or something that will completely drastically change maybe even the map and the landscape uh in in Europe. >> Look, the reality is that Russia will not agree to a ceasefire. Russia wants peace. Russia wants permanent peace and that means resolving the uh Ukraine issue. And so if you look at the map um the Russia basically if it takes Odessa the war is over. Why? Because if it takes Odessa then it controls the entire Black Sea uh coast and NATO cannot have any naval presence in the Black Sea. So Odessa is the key and they haven't discussed Odessa but that's what what Russia really wants and that's what NATO and Ukraine won't give up because if Russia were to take Odessa then Ukraine would become a landlocked country. Uh remember that the industrial and agricultural heartland of Ukraine is actually in eastern Ukraine not western Ukraine. Western Ukraine is actually a very poor uh um resource poor area. And so if um if um Russia were to take Odessa then western Ukraine will become a rupt state completely reliant on uh European welfare and generosity. So um but unless Russia takes Odessa then Putin knows that the Europeans will keep on pressing. Okay. The ceasefire is just meant for Europe to prepare for full scale war and for Ukraine to rearm itself. Do do you see this war ending in 2026? I'm trying to put some time frames around it just to understand like okay where is this ending or do you see full-scale escalation in 27 28 like some people predict here already. >> Um I don't see this war ending except on the battlefield. Um Europe will try to reinforce Ukraine front lines because it seems as though Ukrainian front lines have collapsed. Definitely the morale has collapsed. You have hundreds of thousands in desertions. Um the Ukrainians don't even know why they're fighting this war anymore. Uh the war is lost. The Russians have high morale and the Russian the Russians are uh advancing uh pretty widely across the front lines. So the Europeans will try to reinforce the front lines. So send in some volunteers and eventually what the Europeans will recognize is that the front lines cannot be held. So they will reinforce Odessa. Okay. So that's how I see the war going. Like all this I talk of ceasefire, negotiate settlements. It's a delaying tactic because Putin has said this repeatedly where um the Americans, the Europeans will not stop fighting the war until Russia has collapsed. >> Fair enough. A very grim picture. Um I yeah I hope this plays out in a positive way, but I'm not sure diplomacy will work here anymore. So that's uh very frustrating to to to witness that here from from a European perspective being in Germany as well, of course. Um you you touched on the national security strategy earlier and it's maybe the segue to our next topic here and that's Venezuela and uh the US is really trying to get a strangle hold on Latin America of course so countries like China, Russia don't get access into Latin America and Venezuela is playing a pivotal role here. It is partially financed by China. China is buying Russ Venezuelan oil for example. Um what is the current situation here? What what should we be expecting? Do you see a military strike in the next 24 hours, 48 hours or just near shortly here? >> Um so the national security um strategy it's very clear. It presents something called the Trump corellery and the idea of that is that Trump will now enforce the Monroe Doctrine. The idea of the Monroe doctrine is the western hemisphere belongs entirely to America. America is responsible for protecting Western Hemisphere from foreign influence and Trump has been clear that Russia and China have been intervening too much in the Western Hemisphere. I think like this goes back to the trade war with China. So, um, Trump imposed these sanctions on China. China responded by refusing to buy American agricultural products, thinking that it would hurt, uh, Trump's electoral prospects. And and then China start to buy soy beans, beef from Brazil, from South America. China imports a third of its food from South America. So, China needs that market access. And what Trump is saying is that, you know, you want to play this game, then we'll play this game, right? Trump is a gorilla. Uh when he negotiates, he's going to negotiate negotiate to the end. So what he wants to do is cut off China's oil and food supply and force China to negotiating table. What Trump is really after is in 2026, he's going to have four meetings with the Chinese president. Um in April, he's scheduled for a state visit to Beijing. what he needs to do is resolve this USChina uh trade war. Um and the reason why is America is $38 trillion in debt. And if he looks around if he looks around the world, if he talks to his adviserss, there's only one source that can absorb all this debt and it's a Chinese consumer, right? So ch uh Trump wants to say to China, listen, when we when you first enter WTO, you agreed to liberalize your financial markets. You agreed that your Chinese consumers would buy more from the west and you have done you have you have renegged on all this agreement. So hey you either agree to liberalize your financial markets and let Chinese consumers spend more money or we will embargo you and that is what's underlying this conflict in Venezuela. >> Very interesting picture because it covers a lot of topics that I want to discuss with you in more detail anyway because Trump said that very openly about China having to stimulate its own economy so it can actually buy more. He he actually said that almost word for word here um about six months ago or pretty much right after he came into office. So um right around that time um can China even fulfill those let's say promises or statements? That's the other question we talked about 6 months ago as well that China was a bit in a I think we said deflationary spiral perhaps. So um maybe we'll start there and then we come back to Venezuela. But can China even fulfill those requests that the US has or the west has um towards them? Look, China is first and foremost focused on protecting international sovereignty. It knows what happens when you start to let in western bankers. They come and they become parasites. They steal resources from you. They bankrupt you. They promise you all this easy credit, all this easy money. You become addicted to easy money just as like China, the Chinese became addicted to opium 150 years ago. And the Chinese know exactly how that happened and what happened. And so there's no way that China would agree to liberalize its financial markets. Um, so the only place for negotiation is the Chinese consumer. The problem though is that because China is in a deflation spiral, this means the Chinese consumer is not that optimistic about the future. If you're not optimistic of the future, you're not going to borrow money to spend on money. Okay, so that's a sticking point >> that that's exactly the thing like borrow money. Like China is stimulating though, like they're throwing money at the economy. The real estate market is struggling. That's what we're reading here in the West of course. Um, but that money is not seeping into the West. And now the China also like the coming back to the AI war. It's interesting how all this comes full full full swing or full circle. Um China said well we're not even going to buy your chips anymore. Um cuz that China sovereignty perhaps like Hui I hear has really good technology now as well. they caught up quite well um to the Blackwell series and like I'm really trying to like frame this like is this like are we in a um what do you call it like a non no win scenario for for both sides here and it's just escalating and they're just pushing each other higher and higher perhaps. >> Okay, there's one out. Okay, um this is what I think is most likely to happen. Um Chinese consumers spend money on education. So if it's possible that the Chinese government agrees to lend money to Chinese consumers to send their kids to United States and Europe to study abroad, um then Chinese parents might make that sacrifice. You know, Trump has talked openly about welcoming um 600,000 Chinese students to America for undergraduate. That's twice the number uh right now. Uh mo these parents can't afford it, but Chinese banks would be willing to make loans, personal loans to these parents who send their kids abroad. So I think that might be a solution. I'm not I'm not sure that Chinese consumers would go for it. Um but that is possibly an out for both sides and um Trump would agree to not allow Taiwan to declare independence. Okay. And that might be the uh deal that they strike. Okay. But I think they will strike a deal. It's just a question of what the specifics are. >> Well, Trump has already left the door open in terms of education. like well he he cut it off early on but then he opened the door right away again it's like of course we're happy to have Chinese students come study in the US like again that was almost verbatim what he said um so um I think the door is open they just need to be willing to do it uh at the end right so it's it's really interesting um >> look look Chinese students the the most of the US higher education system would collapse okay mo many many American students are recognizing that going to college it's a stupid deal you spend you know, tens of thousand dollars a year to like drink beer and watch football games. You couldn't do that at home. Okay. So, um you know, if they need to resolve this issue, uh they need to get more and more Chinese students into America and um and they they need to do it very quickly. It's also possible that you will have an increasing number of US colleges set up shop in China. They will charge US dollar tuition, uh but it'll be a lot cheaper experience for Chinese students. So, I think there are some workarounds. >> Well, it looks like there's an like I I kind of like that because I like the positivity that you're sort of spreading here that there is actually a possibility of a solution here and through education because that's how peace is being brokered and uh um that's just how it works. I I like that. I like that positivity here, Professor Jang. Um but coming back to Venezuela, unfortunately, which is a bit more of a darker topic. Um how how do you see this situation resolved? Like US is very close to a strike. Is China willing to step in on the behalf of Venezuela perhaps? I haven't heard much personally and I haven't I haven't researched the topic in in in too great of a detail, but has China made any announcements or said anything like if you do this, we will do that. >> Okay. So, China imports 80% uh of Venezuela. So, China is basically uh Venezuel's biggest customer. China is what props up the Venezuelan economy. China has been very explicit. China said that even though we support Venezuela, we will not intervene either economically or militarily in Venezuela because China respects the mineral doctrine. Okay, so China here is very um explicit. Um as to what will actually happen, I think that Trump has already announced that he's going to embargo the Venezuelan oil shipments. That is basically declaration of war. Okay. Okay, the problem is like how do you actually enforce that and what will enforcement actually look like? Trump has also said that he will launch air strikes against Venezuela. Okay, so um he will launch air strikes. The question then is um how serious will these air strikes be? Because remember when when um a few months ago, Trump or um ordered Operation Midnight Hammer and it was, you know, a couple stealth uh bombers dropping buster bombers on an empty Iranian facility and it was mainly just um about face and showing that America does have the capacity to strike Iran. Um they informed the Iranians beforehand to avoid casualties and escalation. And I think that you we might see we might see a similar situation in Venezuela where both sides are playing chicken. You know, both sides are, you know, huffing and puffing, but they don't they don't want to go to war because no one benefits from going to war. Right now, uh, America has assembled 10% of its naval force in the Caribbean. That's 15,000 uh, Marines. That's not enough >> to launch an amphibious operation against Venezuela, especially because the people of Venezuela are united against uh the possibility of American invasion. You have guerilla warfare everywhere. These air strikes don't really do anything except galvanize the people, galvanize the national people. Um, so I think that there will be conflict, but I think this conflict will be managed to avoid escalation and a lot of it will just be huffing and puffing because ultimately both sides benefit from coming to an agreement. Um, but they need to uh, you know, huff and puff and show off and play chicken before they come come to that actual agreement in order to save face. >> What would the US need to hear from Maduro to sort of say, "Okay, we're happy. um let let's move on. Let's put a end to this conflict. What would they need to hear? >> Right. So I think Trump is thinking of the bigger picture which is the he wants to enforce Monroe doctrine. So he wants the entirety of South America under control. So Venezuela it's for show. It's to show what could happen to nations who defy the Americans. Okay. So if Venezuela falls and Cuba and Nicaragua would follow and then possibly other nations as as well. So from Trump's perspective, he needs to he needs to show that he is capable of militarily attacking Venezuela, but at the same time, he wants to show that he's generous and open to negotiation. So I what I think will happen is that maybe in a six-month timeline, you will have escalation and you will have some erratic and sporadic behavior in that Trump is launching air strikes, but they're not directed against Venezuela. They're directed against Colombia and Mexico. They sort of miss Venezuela. the they for Venezuela that hit Colombia and Mexico and this confuses everyone. The reason why Trump is doing that is one he's trying to um leave the room open for negotiation with Maduro. And second of all, he's trying to show the all of South America, I can hit anyone anywhere, you know, I'm crazy. Okay. Um and third is that he's trying to enforce the doctrine and warn off Russian or Chinese u intervention. >> Okay. No, fair enough. And maybe one last question, and that's a very pointed one, but um could this escalate into something bigger, and I do mean World War III here. Does it have the potential? I'm I'm quite positive based on what you're saying that this is just a small like storm in a water class perhaps, but uh I'm curious what your take on it is and whether I'm interpreting it the the way you're seeing it as well. >> You know, that's a great question. Look, like from a game theory perspective, um we should not expect the escalation to increase more than two air strikes. Okay? I think Trump may launch some minor air strikes against Venezuela and then this will uh lead to negotiations which will lead to a peace treaty where basically Venezuela agrees an economic vassel of the United States. So if nothing happens and I think that's most likely to happen but in geopolitics there are all always a possibility of a conflict somewhere else. Okay. So maybe you know you know Trump is facing a lot of resistance in America. Maybe there's some riots going on. Trump needs to distract the American people, so he launches an amphibious invasion of Venezuela. Okay. Or possibly the conflict between Israel and Iran heat up. Um it's possible that um you know his advisers, his donors pressure him to do something. Okay. So um it's a dangerous game. Um I think I think that peace will prevail in the end. But you're right in that something unexpected could happen and this could escalate. Okay. It's possible that that American pilot he's you know breaking into Venezuela airspace and then Venezuelans accidentally shooting down right because you have Wanganger forces in Venezuela. You have Cuban forces in Venezuela as well. It's possible they might want an escalation. So there are some unknowns a lot of unknowns here. um and things could escalate very quickly, but given the situation as it is, I don't think things will happen that way. >> Yeah, perfect. That's a positive note we'll end on, Professor Jung. Um we we'll take the positive here. Um really appreciate your time. Like absolutely insightful. This is probably the best 30 minutes I've spent here on this channel the last two three weeks easily. Uh really great content. Um if our audience doesn't know you for any reason whatsoever yet, where can we send them to follow more of your work? Yeah. So I have a Substack uh predictive history substack and that's where I write on geopolitics and so I try to cover as much breaking news as possible. So for example this weekend uh was this um you know tragic shooting in in Australia which affected the Jewish diaspora and um you know I did a lot of research and I and I wrote an essay explaining how I why I think this happened and what it could lead to. So I do I do a lot of analysis. Um, I just don't report the news. I try to give you uh the background and the context to the news. >> No, fantastic. And we've just seen uh what that context and background is. Really, really fascinating what is going on around the globe right now. Professor Jung, tremendously appreciate your time. It's great to catch up with you again. Can't wait to do this again in 2026 because there's so much going on. I'd love to have you back more often. Absolutely. So, um, tremendously appreciate it. Thank you so much and, uh, you know, enjoy the weekend. Happy holiday season. Um, really hope you have a wonderful time and can't wait to catch up next year. So, looking forward to that and everybody else. Thank you so much for watching. I tremendously enjoyed the conversation here with Professor Jung. Really insightful, connecting a lot of dots, a lot of moving parts um here around the globe, whether it's in Europe, in the US, Venezuela, China. Lot lots going on. And I hope you found this insightful. If you did, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously bringing guests like Professor Jung here onto the channel. Much appreciated. And uh in the meantime, if we don't see each other again, merry Christmas, happy holidays, and all the best for 2026. We'll be back with lots more here, though. Stay tuned.