This Asset Is Repeating 2008; About To ‘Go Off A Cliff’ Warns Trader | Chris Vermeuelen
Summary
Market Outlook: The guest warns of ongoing correction risk with signs of panic selling and expects further equity downside after a brief bear-market bounce.
Precious Metals: Despite a sharp rebound, he sees a high likelihood of further declines in gold and silver, drawing parallels to 2011 and 1980 cycle patterns.
Gold Miners (GDX): Detailed analysis of GDX suggests another leg lower (~15% downside), prompting avoidance of miners until a deeper reset creates a multi-year opportunity.
Tech Correction: The Magnificent Seven show a topping pattern with a potential ~20% pullback; weakness in the NASDAQ could drag broader indices lower.
Key Stock: Microsoft (MSFT) exhibits a double top and bearish breakdown, serving as a red flag for the broader tech-led market.
Bitcoin: The guest is bearish on Bitcoin, citing a topping phase and a likely move toward ~51,000 as part of broader risk-off selling.
Positioning: He has exited physical metals, prefers ETFs for potential fast spikes, maintains a small S&P 500 position, and holds cash pending clearer market direction.
Risk Management: Emphasis on stops, sentiment/technical signals, avoiding leverage, and aligning timeframe to avoid emotional trading during high volatility.
Transcript
I think this move up that we're having right now in in miners and in metals is a lot like what we saw back in uh 2008. Bitcoin is about to go off a big cliff here. This is a huge red flag. It's always broad market selling and broad market selling means everybody just liquidates everything. They're scared. They don't know what to do. Slight rebound in the stock markets today. The S&P 500 is up 50 basis points. The Nasdaq is up about 30 basis points intraday. Gold is rebounding hard, up 1.78%, 2% basically uh regaining some of the losses it's had yesterday. Uh we'll talk about gold, silver, Bitcoin, stocks with Christopher Mulen, chief market strategist at the technical traders.com. Chris, welcome back and congratulations. You've made a number of very important correct calls. We've had you on the show uh late January when I was with you live at the VRIC, the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. Right at that time, it was right before February 3rd when gold, silver, and the other and the other metals in the complex basically collapsed in one single day. Silver was down 40% in one day. Uh which was the worst single day drop since 1980. and you on the show just a few days prior when silver was trading above $100. So it said that a 60% correction is coming for the metals and you basically called it uh to the dot. Uh also we we'll start with stocks first today. Um you've been warning us of this stock correction 20 30%. Uh the NASDAQ hasn't fallen 20 30% since the last couple months since we started talking about this, but individual stocks within the MAG 7 have certainly dropped if not more. Looking at Microsoft, uh Nvidia, uh AMD isn't part of that list, but just a couple weeks ago, AMD dropped 17% in one day even on good earnings. So I just have to call you out in a few important directions that you called correctly. Um, how did you how did you we'll talk about silver and gold in more detail later, but just broadly speaking from a technician's perspective, how did you know or how did you have the hunch that a 60% correction was on the way for silver and by extension gold in the same direction? I mean, it wasn't exactly 60%, it was 40, which is still a lot, but anyway, you called the direction right. How did you know? >> Yeah, well, thanks for the compliments. Yeah, we've had some pretty good calls recently, but uh the charts the charts are a big warning sign, right? There's a lot of things on the charts. A lot of people think that you just you follow price, but there's a lot of different ways to view the markets to get an idea of sentiment. And sentiment is very powerful when you mix the chart price action with sentiment. It really helps you see when you're at an extreme level. And you and I were at the VRIC. I we were talking about I said if silver was to pop and break through 106, we're going to probably see it spike up to 120 and change. and then we could very easily see a 40 to 60% correction and that happened literally the days we were at VRIC together which was pretty cool but um you know the charts the sentiment was so extreme where everybody's talking about precious metals doesn't matter if you go to the grocery store you go somewhere everybody seems to be talking about it when sentiment is that extreme then you know you are usually in some feeding frenzy it's very emotional and you have to be ready for a knee-jerk reaction and so that's just what the the charts not only showed that with the price action itself, but overall the the volume and the sentiment going on was just so extreme that when they get out of that out of whack that much. You just have to, you know, put up a warning sign, you got to be prepared to protect your capital. >> Let's start with stocks then and then we'll rotate, pun intended, back into gold and silver later. Uh, yeah, the stock market, maybe pull up a chart. So like I mentioned if you want to pull up individual stocks like Microsoft for example that I like mentioned in the beginning um >> Alphabet uh the the you know the mag 7 have not done well >> in the last couple months >> um and one would argue that uh they are the market and by extension the market has already called has already dropped 20 30% like you called it. Um maybe then we can make the conclusion that this correction, this phase three uh topping pattern has already happened and maybe it's time to get back in. I don't know. I'll let you answer that. >> Yeah, I mean I think there's there's there's a lot to look at here. If we look at the individual stock like Microsoft, it put in this huge double top formation both times were big moves on news. Both times they also got sold off into it. then eventually put in kind of a a topping pattern. It broke down and since then it's formed a bearish pattern and of course it's it's still selling off and it still does not look very healthy. And so Microsoft that's a big red sign a big red flag for the markets. But when we step back and look at the bigger picture as you were mentioning the Magnificent 7, we are in a very unique uh situation here. So we had a we have this topping formation right through here with the magnificent 7 that this is a very critical support zone on the chart and if this breaks down which it actually broke down yesterday uh which is Thursday uh that is not a good sign. It is actually pointing to a fairly significant pullback. I think we could see the Magnificent 7 pull back roughly 20%. Which if the Mag 7 falls that much, it will pull the the NASDAQ down about 11%. 9 to 11% depending on which stocks. So just this chart alone, the fact that the Magnificent 7 have put in what looks to be a topping formation are breaking down that there is telling us that could be like a 9 to 11% move in the stock market and then throw in all the other stocks that will also get sold off. They could easily send the stock market tumbling. So, this is a huge red flag that we're seeing this breakdown and there's a lot of things that were screaming as the market broke down yesterday as that was happening. I've in fact we had we had panic selling on my short-term indicator when there was panic selling that is not a good sign when there's too much of it. So, if you have too many things line up, too many good things is a bad thing. So, panic selling on this green indicator. We also saw the uh the VIX spike up, David. It had a pretty good pop up into a resistance zone telling us there was kind of mass fear. Uh we saw the put call ratio close above one telling us that most people are buying put options. They're all betting on on falling pricing. Now this is a bit of a short-term contrarian indicator. Uh this is a very weird chart to look at. I like to look at this. It's a little thin blue line in the background, but it's moving up. People are naturally getting more and more bearish, which is good. But this short-term spike in the pall ratio and the panic selling and the VIX yesterday is a short-term indicator that we should see a bounce in equities today, but it's just going to be a little bare market bounce. And when we look at like the S&P 500 here, we have a little lower wick this morning on the daily chart. It's bounced back up, but overall, I think this is going to eventually get sold off into. And the S&P 500 has been holding up fairly well. When we when we look at it, we on a 30 minute chart and zoom back about a month and change, we keep seeing the stock market, the S&P 500 dip into these lime green areas. Now, these are oversold. This is typically when the market gets bought back up, institutions step back in or individuals buy the dips and we actually had that uh just early this morning on Friday as we talked about that. And now the market is bouncing and moving up. And surprisingly, we actually have our FOMO indicator, which usually puts in a short-term top for the markets kicking in today. And so, what's really interesting is the S&P 500 is still holding up above this major support line through here. But when we look over at the NASDAQ, which to me is the the big heavyweight and also has the magnificent uh seven in it, it has really broken down through this high uh through these series of highs. It broke all the way down and then it bounced up. And today when we're looking, we're seeing the stock market have a bit of a bounce, but the NASDAQ is just refusing to get traction. And we have when you have a downtrend, red, red bars, and our FOMO indicator spiking. Usually that means whoever's going to buy today is buying and next week we'll probably see sellers step back in. So the stock market looks very, very sick from the Magnificent 7 to the NASDAQ. And people are nervous. They don't know where to go and they they're not believing in gold either or silver right now. And that's why we're seeing money flow to the kind of the old defensive sectors that everybody used to go to before silver took on all the excitement and all in the magnificent 7. Before we continue with the video, let's talk about today's sponsor, Delete Me. Now, most people don't realize how much of their personal information is publicly available. Data brokers collect and sell details like your name, address, phone number, and even family connections. 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Um and if you look at industrials and if you look at um uh uh GDX which is the uh gold miners index these these defensive traditionally considered defensive sectors have been outperforming the tech sector for quite some time now. Uh Chris um how are you playing this rotation if at all this market rotation that's already happened? Uh would you write this out or would you stay out now that it's already happened? So yeah, the markets have a lot of mixed signals even in the precious metals space. So for example, um if we take a look at GDX for example, it it has mixed signals in terms of the long-term trend. If you look at the long-term moving average, they're still sloping up. So the tide is still rising, but short-term and volumewise on the daily chart, there's a lot of damage done here. And this is actually pointing to potentially another big leg down. We could see miners fall about 15% very quickly here. Just uh using a simple kind of Fibonacci retracement or um extension level, we could see like GDX fall down to about 85 very quickly. And this is what gold is showing. This is what silver has a much more bearish outlook than this. It's uh it hasn't bounced and made higher higher lows and higher highs recently. So what we've done, I mean, we've we've moved out of most of the equities markets. We're still long the S&P 500. We closed out our NASDAQ play a little while ago. And we actually sold uh we sold our gold position right up into this area. We also sold and closed out our um most of half of our silver position right up at 113 uh way way up here. And just recently this week, I closed out the rest of my physical metal positions. So I'm completely out of metal. We've got huge moves since um 2019 and the 2020 COVID crash. We that's when we accumulated and now I have closed out my metal plays. Now if precious metals are to start another big leg and go parabolic and and have another huge surge, I will simply be playing the precious metal space with ETFs because I believe it'll be a very fast explosive move and it's just easy to get in and out with a click of a button with ETFs. But when it comes to physical metals, this is where I stand apart from I think most other people in the space, which is I believe price usually gets factored in, gets woven in before the news hits. Buy the rumor, sell the news. People are expecting big and bad things to happen in the economy. We're seeing all of that get priced into silver. We're seeing all of it get priced into gold. When you look at the gold chart, this is what we've seen in the past. and then suddenly when the bubble bursts, everything collapses and gets sold off. And so that's that's kind of where I'm at at this point is I'm locking in protecting capital. If precious metals build a launchpad, a bullish pattern here and want to go higher over the next few weeks, uh, and potentially scream, you know, gold 6,000 and silver, you know, 150 or something, I'll be taking advantage of that through an ETF. But I believe most of the damage I I believe most of the upside is done. I think there's a lot of downside potential going forward and the silver chart clearly shows this. So if we look at the silver chart, you know, we can look at this this this sharp drop to the downside, we depending on where we want to pull off one of these lows, it is pointing to a significant drop in price. It's looking for about $41 silver. And if we take the more drastic uh standout low over here, it is pointing to roughly $28 silver, which is what, you know, the market is not expecting. Of course, everybody a few weeks ago thought silver was going to 200 and 400. Uh and and and then silver the market always has a way of catching people off guard. So this is what the chart of silver is pointing to 40 or 28. And obviously that will wreak havoc with margin calls. That'll be probably, you know, one of the quickest, sharpest pullbacks in silver in in a long time. Um, so that's the downside. That's what I don't want to hold hold on to metals for. If metals build a base and start to go higher, I want to take part of it, but I am not going to hold on to a sinking ship uh that's made out of metal, right? So, I'd rather step aside and get back later or, you know, be able to pick it up at these rock bottom pricing when the next wave down kicks in cuz silver and precious metals have have run up on emotions and and a lot of excitement and this is only leg one. I think there's two waves that happen when it when it unwinds and this is we've only seen the first leg down. just curious and I want to get your levels in just a minute, but just curious why are you not using um let's say the GDX or GDXJ uh to play the M uh the to play the gold price. You mentioned you're using ETFs and uh you know these miners have had better leverage in the last 12 months. So uh just wondering why that's not something you're using. Yeah, it's it's I I find when we get into this particular type of environment where precious metals are in favor, they're the rising star. I find I find gold is the ultimate barometer and silver I like to play the physical. It's also outside of the stock market. So, if the stock market does sell off and start to crash, sometimes gold and silver will will hold up or move higher, but the miners might actually pull back because they're a stuck a stock stuck in the stock market. So, I've I'm not really that big into miners. I haven't been for a very very long time. I believe after we have a financial reset and gold and silver have corrected and miners get beat up really bad, that's when I'm going to be looking to get back into miners and more specifically probably like individual miners because I believe we're going to go into a multi-year run. I think this move up that we're having right now in in miners and in metals is a lot like what we saw back in uh 2008. I kind of you and I have touched on this many times. >> Yeah. >> I believe it is something similar to this. I think if we were to just zoom in, >> we saw gold trade sideways for a few years and then gold took off just before this. We went into the financial crisis and gold sold off. Miners got absolutely slaughtered. All of that stuff. So, I believe we are right here. I believe we're in this topping phase. And what's going to happen? We're going to see gold, silver, miners sell off eventually. This is when I start to get excited. This is when you I want to buy Golden Rockets because we go into a multi-year uh big move and this is this is when I'm going to be excited. And I've talked about this for many years saying I'm not interested in miners until this scenario unfolds. Until then, I like physical metals myself cuz I just like the way they move and um uh and it's just part of how I manage my portfolio. >> Okay. Can I show you my screen for just a minute here? And I want to just show you a chart and we'll switch back to your screen. uh take a look at gold here and I just want to show you how it's performing. Now, this kind of goes back to what you were talking about earlier, but I just want to show you this on my screen. Uh this is gold now and I want to zoom in to gold in 2011. So, gold kind of had this top, this brief double top. Uh then it fell very sharply um by the order of yeah 13% in a day or two uh in November or September 2011. This was during the peak of 2011. >> Sharp rebound then sideways action for basically a year >> and then for the uh upcoming one year it fell about 40% again. And so this is kind of reminiscent of what's going on now. And by the way, this is the second time that gold has done this. The first is 1980 >> um during which it did something similar. double top uh sharp drop, sharp rebound, then fell again. And right now it's doing the exact same thing. If you take a look at um this price action right now, uh like you were explaining just now, we had uh this top sharp drop, sharp rebound. Now it's trading sideways. And now we have this lingering question mark. Is it going to repeat the last two major bull cycles? Basically, it's only had three. This is the third one. uh third major bull cycle since uh 1971. And so, >> while we only have two real data points to show us what gold has done prior, and they've both performed in the exact same way, what's to say history won't be different this time, uh what do the charts say? Are we about to get sideways action and then another 50% drop, which is what we've had in the past? >> Yeah, I think you bring up some some really good points. So a good example is like another way to look at that too is uh here here's two charts of the silver uh weekly chart of silver. The top one is this year and we had a big runup. We had a pause in October. We had another little hiccup here just about a month and a half ago and then we had the blowoff phase all the way up to 120 and then silver has pulled back. And so that's where we are more or less right now. Look at what happened in 2011. Look at the charts like comparing like they they unfold. They moved very very similar. We had the sharp pullback in 2011. This is exactly what you just walked through, David, is like the market traded sideways. It drifted its way up, but then it eventually broke down. And it took a decade to come back, right? It took a very long time. And most investors are not expecting this, which is why there's a good reason it could happen. And I think um that's what we need to be aware of. And this this is exactly what unfolded in like the same drop almost 37. Well, when I drew this chart, it was 37 and 33%. Um, this pullback we've had now is a little bigger, as you said, about 40%. But we have a very similar chart pattern. This is typical psychology. We have a lot of people talking saying everything's being manipulated, all of this stuff. But just go to like GME, go to all these GameStop, all of these other emotional driven moves. They all do the same thing. Stock pricing is based on emotions. It's the staircase up, it's the elevator down. It's super emotional, very volatile. They kind of repeat themselves over and over again. It doesn't matter if it's a stock or a commodity. And you know, an interesting chart here, uh, David, is if we look at the silver chart, and again, this is kind of one area where, you know, I always go I go against the the grain for this, but let's take a look at the chart of silver. And let's just go way back in time. And if we look at the chart price action here, you and I have gone over this several times is, you know, this chart shows silver. You don't have to be a rocket science to figure out usually what happens when something goes parabolic and straight up. I mean, it went all the way up to here and now it's already starting to come back down. Now, the nice thing about this is I use a linear chart. That's why this you see these parabolic moves. I actually just did a presentation teaching the difference between linear and logarithmic and the power of using this style of chart. And so when you use this style of chart, you see these parabolic spikes. And seeing a parabolic spike is an emotional surge and it tells you to be aware to protect your capital. And everybody, you know, a lot of people in in this in the precious metal space, they all go to the log chart and they look at it like this, which looks totally different. And they have the exact opposite. that they are all talking about, well, there's a giant cup and handle pattern here. We should see $200 to $400 silver uh all of that stuff. This chart is saying the bull market, the next big cup handle has just started and it's going to 400. And maybe it has, but keep in mind this is a 45ear cycle. I won't even know my name by the time this thing plays out. And so this this chart and pattern is saying buy by buy. And then when you look at a linear chart, it's saying sell sell. And so you have to buy into your time frame. You got to figure out what strategy fits you, right? And even if this is and it most likely is the start of something way bigger for gold. The thing or for silver thing is this could pull back and trade sideways from here and and just over to here is five years, right? and and then and then it could start that next big move up. And that's what you just talked about. 2011, we saw things trade sideways for a while. It faded down. It took a few years to recover. So, you have to really, you know, focus, not get sucked into big lofty pricing that's based on chart patterns that are way outside your time frame. And um so that's where I am with at silver. I think, you know, when you look at these big pictures, I totally agree. I think gold will be 10, 15, 20,000 in 10, 20, 30 years. I think silver will be dramatically higher. But there's going to be decades in there that are lost that I think anybody who's been in the precious metal space for a long time knows how painful it is to hold gold miners after they peaked in 2011, right? It's like you hold on to them for a decade and you just wish you did something else and then you can get back in when they turn up and something like that could happen again. And so I think it's really important for people to step back and you know maybe not drink all the Kool-Aid from the precious metals space which is like you know crazy ludicrous pricing. This time is different. Um and even if it is different you know you have to have a strategy to get back in which is kind of what I've been focusing on trimming out of physical metals getting ready for faster plays in ETFs because we could see another big parabolic spike and I don't want to miss it. But I also I'm not going to expect that this time is different than any other time because every other time plays out the same. It's not the end of the world. Prices fall back down, you know, all of that stuff. So, I'd rather go with what normally happens and kind of manage positions from there. >> I'm going to show you one more chart uh before I pass it back to you. Now, Chris, I'm going to show silver with gold and copper and palladium and platinum. I've showed this on my show a couple times in the last week. Um and I want to just get your opinion. The reason I'm showing this is because all these metals moved concurrently at the same time. So, we have um let's take a look at what happened here. So, I had you on the show uh January 30th or late January >> um or not not January 30th, but uh >> it was the 26th 28th or something like that. Yeah. >> Yeah. 25th to 26th. uh you warned us about this coming drop and then all of these metals, all of these hard uh uh commodities dropped exactly on the same day, rebounded exactly on the same day. The magnitude of the drop was, you know, it varied per asset class, but the direction was all the same, the timing was all exactly the same. >> You're looking at this chart as a trader. What's your first conclusion here? Yeah, I and I I teach this all the time is a stock, it doesn't matter what stock or sector you have or what index you have or what global index you have, pretty much when the stock market crashes, almost all stocks go down. A stock, I don't care what it is, is the same trade. It's an equity and these there's naturally es and flows that they all move together. Precious metals are the exact same thing. Doesn't matter if you have platinum, platium, copper, miners, whatever it is, right? it. They are all the same trade. It's the same sectors as you as you just said, David, just some have bigger magnitude swings than the other percentage- wise, but they pretty much all move together. And that's why like so many people are like, "Oh, I'm diversified. I got a whole bunch of different metals and stuff. I'm good." I'm like, "No, you just hold a whole bunch of rocket ships that they're all going to crash at the same time." Uh, so the whole key and my whole strategy philosophy is like own an asset class when it's going up. Precious metals, I don't care. Mix them up, play them all. But when it starts to show signs of weakness, you need to lock in profits and and lock in the gains. >> And it's the same with the stock market. There's a time to hold stocks and a time to just step away. And it's not about having positions on all the time. It's about protecting what you have. And um uh understanding that it's not about, you know, always trying to pull money out of the market. If you can avoid big losses, you can make a lot more money in the long run than riding things out. >> I got this text from a personal friend. Uh I'm not going to show who it is. He knows who he is. But uh this is the text. He sent me this on well last week, February 5th. He basically sent me this screenshot and he was invested in some medals and other things. And you see like this well I guess he was following this ultra silver down 30%. uh critical metals uh metals corp uh 18% strategy Michael Sailor Strategy down 17% uh yeah silver gold you see these doubledigit drops in a single day and I I can understand why some people are just panicking or worried past tense I just so just for the generalist audience out there the traders and the investors who may be sim uh sending similar texts to their friends as well or have in the last two weeks how do How do you approach a day like this when the things on your, you know, on your on your watch list are down double digits? >> Uh, well, hopefully you have like a trading strategy in place, right? If you've got stops in place, the markets just keep crashing. You just got to watch it go through your stop and and take you out of a trade. I mean, that's why they're there. They'll protect you from further losses. A lot of people I mean, it's easy to panic. I mean, even on those days it was dropping, my heart was pounding. And I'm like, "Holy cow, this is like unprecedented." Uh, I mean, luckily, we had sold a bunch of our positions right up at the peak a few days ago, so we end up with an an average good exit. But when it's selling like that, I'm not a big fan of of of dumping stocks on a big sell-off day. Usually, you're going to see it bounce and have a pause. You can get a gauge for it, but it definitely has to stay w within your your protective range. Like, you have to give it lots of breathing space. Uh, and it's really tough to do when you're in something in a bubble. And you and I talked about this a long time ago. It's like when something's in a bubble, you can't pick the top. You don't know how high it's going. But when it bursts, man, it comes straight back down. And so, I I guess it really comes down to managing your positions. Like that odd list there, that that list is obviously >> somebody very very speculative, probably younger. It's all double leveraged silver and inverse. Like it's, you know, it's Bitcoin, MSTR, right? It's uh not the stuff that I would be dabbling in myself, but when you trade leverage and fastmoving stuff, it makes for a very emotional experience in the markets. >> Do you have a system in place for disciplining yourself to control these emotions when you have roller coaster days up or down? >> We do. Yeah. There I have a what I call an asset hierarchy. So, we naturally as volatility picks up uh we naturally move away from faster moving assets. So if the stock market's moving very quickly, we'll move out of stocks and we could go to bonds, we could go to a currency, we may even just move to cash and we will literally step aside. Jumping into a market when there's ton tons of volatility is like jumping into quicksand or boiling water. It is absolutely painful if you're on the wrong side and things move so fast back and forth. It's just it creates a lot of emotions and it'll make you get in and out of trades. You'll start to revenge trade. Um, I recently was talking to somebody, they had lost a lot of money on the silver crash and um, surprisingly they didn't want to get back in. This one person, they're like, "I'm just going to let everything calm down. I need to calm down." And I talked to other people who are like, they got back in and they bought double leverage and they're waiting for they played this little bounce that we've had and they're trying to make it back. But it gets very dangerous once you start playing revenge. Like, I got to make back what I just lost cuz uh, when one of those backfires, you end up losing a lot more even quicker. >> Okay, Chris. Uh let's talk a little bit about Bitcoin before we close off. >> Uh it's it's been having its own roller coaster. Down 5% up 5%. It's up 5% today. It was down, >> you know, single digits uh in one day in the past week. Let's pull up a chart of Bitcoin and tell us what's going on right now. >> Sure. Yeah. The Bitcoin chart looks pretty sick. It has. It has for a while. Um when when we look at the long-term trends, I like to look at this big green moving average. which is the 150day moving average. Naturally, if the 150day is sloping up and and price is generally above it, then you're you're in a bullish environment. But when it is sloping down and price is naturally below it, you enter what I call is like a stage four or a stage a topping phase or a stage four. And you and I have touched on this many times, which uh we can see right here. Think of this dotted line as the 150day moving average. when price starts to trade below it and it starts to slope down, we are entering the late stages or the early stages of a bare market. And that is exactly what Bitcoin is starting to do. It is definitely broken down below the key moving average long enough. It's sloping down. It's got this bare flag pattern. And the price charts for Bitcoin still look very bearish. In fact, Bitcoin chart, the daily chart here, is still pointing to roughly 51,000. So, it came all the way down and hit our our the golden ratio, the 618 extension. And as I always follow this pretty much, if this level is hit and price takes a pause and has a bit of a hiccup in in price, we almost always go down and see this 100% measured move. So, Bitcoin is about to go off a big cliff here and um have another leg to the downside. And I think that might be uh in line with what we're about to see with the stock market. I think we could see equities in general sell off and have this next leg down and the big question is is silver and gold going to follow suit. Are all of them going to move as one big bout of panic selling? And you know those two days of panic selling that we saw on precious metals, it also happened in Bitcoin, but it was it was broad market selling on the stock market just like we saw yesterday. And when you get into the late stage three or a stage four bare market, it's always broad market selling. And broad market selling means everybody just liquidates everything. They're scared. They don't know what to do. And there's there's usually margin calls kicking in every day as prices hit new levels and it pulls everything down. So, I'd be very bearish here on Bitcoin. Um, I'm pretty bearish bearish on everything. Uh, we're out of metals. We're still on the S&P 500 with a a small position and the rest is sitting in cash because this market is trying to figure out if it is going to start a new leg higher with some new news or if it is about to break down and go for a a nose dive. >> If you had to place a wager in terms of which direction has a higher probability at that point, what would you say >> in which asset class? And Bitcoin here. >> Yeah, Bitcoin. I would I would say it's going to go sideways to down like that's I think it's just having a pause here but I think it's going lower. >> Okay. What do you make of comments where uh you know I see this on my show sometimes when I have a guest on he says something I I just had a guest on yesterday uh David Woo great great economist and he said Bitcoin is finished where he said maybe close to that. Um and then you see the comments that's a bullish signal. Thanks for thanks for releasing this today. That just gave me a bias signal. you know, I see a bunch of these comments. Um, I can you just can you just maybe comment on some of these comments here? Like, does that Can you understand the logic here? >> Uh, yeah. There's there's a lot of negative people and trolls out there. Like, I get that all the time on on your channel, too. I'll say something, oh, Chris is bearish on gold. It's time to buy. Like, I mean, it's just the way there's there's people out there that love to challenge. There's people who don't follow or understand what I do and the time frames. >> But do you do something similar in the sense that if you see like let's say on mainstream news or some other some other show someone's really bearish on something where someone's really bullish on something, do you take the contrarian trade? I think that's what I'm getting at. >> No. No. So if if an expert or something is has got a opinion, I don't really track that. What I actually follow is the mass psychology. I've got tools and ways to gauge of like what is everybody doing? I don't care what one expert just said on a channel, even even if it's in line or against me. It's I want to know what everyone else is doing and I want to I try to feel their energy. >> I see. Great. Well, Chris, tell us where we can find your uh your work and um what we can find there. >> Sure. Yeah. The uh the best way if you want to get a feel of what I do every morning. I I post a video on YouTube. You can check that out on my analysis, but I share my exact ETF trades in my portfolio. So, you can copy along everything I do. you know, when I get in, when I get out, my my stops, my targets. I have 5 to 12 trades a year. And uh I do that at thetechnicaltraders.com. And it's a really simple way to to learn the markets, have your finger on the pulse. When there's panic days, you're not one the one of the people panicking or feeling left behind because we explain what's going on. We usually see it coming the day before. And so, it's just a great way to navigate the markets without panicking and you can sleep better at night and and uh you don't have to ride things down. I mean, we step aside when the charts are telling us to step aside. And uh the charts really are the key, you know, that's the only way we make money as investors. If price moves in favor, so we don't follow news or economic data or what we think or feel. We just simply follow the money and uh that's it. >> Okay, great. Appreciate your help, Chris, and appreciate your time. Follow Chris in the link down below and don't forget to like and subscribe. Thanks, Chris. See you next time.
This Asset Is Repeating 2008; About To ‘Go Off A Cliff’ Warns Trader | Chris Vermeuelen
Summary
Transcript
I think this move up that we're having right now in in miners and in metals is a lot like what we saw back in uh 2008. Bitcoin is about to go off a big cliff here. This is a huge red flag. It's always broad market selling and broad market selling means everybody just liquidates everything. They're scared. They don't know what to do. Slight rebound in the stock markets today. The S&P 500 is up 50 basis points. The Nasdaq is up about 30 basis points intraday. Gold is rebounding hard, up 1.78%, 2% basically uh regaining some of the losses it's had yesterday. Uh we'll talk about gold, silver, Bitcoin, stocks with Christopher Mulen, chief market strategist at the technical traders.com. Chris, welcome back and congratulations. You've made a number of very important correct calls. We've had you on the show uh late January when I was with you live at the VRIC, the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. Right at that time, it was right before February 3rd when gold, silver, and the other and the other metals in the complex basically collapsed in one single day. Silver was down 40% in one day. Uh which was the worst single day drop since 1980. and you on the show just a few days prior when silver was trading above $100. So it said that a 60% correction is coming for the metals and you basically called it uh to the dot. Uh also we we'll start with stocks first today. Um you've been warning us of this stock correction 20 30%. Uh the NASDAQ hasn't fallen 20 30% since the last couple months since we started talking about this, but individual stocks within the MAG 7 have certainly dropped if not more. Looking at Microsoft, uh Nvidia, uh AMD isn't part of that list, but just a couple weeks ago, AMD dropped 17% in one day even on good earnings. So I just have to call you out in a few important directions that you called correctly. Um, how did you how did you we'll talk about silver and gold in more detail later, but just broadly speaking from a technician's perspective, how did you know or how did you have the hunch that a 60% correction was on the way for silver and by extension gold in the same direction? I mean, it wasn't exactly 60%, it was 40, which is still a lot, but anyway, you called the direction right. How did you know? >> Yeah, well, thanks for the compliments. Yeah, we've had some pretty good calls recently, but uh the charts the charts are a big warning sign, right? There's a lot of things on the charts. A lot of people think that you just you follow price, but there's a lot of different ways to view the markets to get an idea of sentiment. And sentiment is very powerful when you mix the chart price action with sentiment. It really helps you see when you're at an extreme level. And you and I were at the VRIC. I we were talking about I said if silver was to pop and break through 106, we're going to probably see it spike up to 120 and change. and then we could very easily see a 40 to 60% correction and that happened literally the days we were at VRIC together which was pretty cool but um you know the charts the sentiment was so extreme where everybody's talking about precious metals doesn't matter if you go to the grocery store you go somewhere everybody seems to be talking about it when sentiment is that extreme then you know you are usually in some feeding frenzy it's very emotional and you have to be ready for a knee-jerk reaction and so that's just what the the charts not only showed that with the price action itself, but overall the the volume and the sentiment going on was just so extreme that when they get out of that out of whack that much. You just have to, you know, put up a warning sign, you got to be prepared to protect your capital. >> Let's start with stocks then and then we'll rotate, pun intended, back into gold and silver later. Uh, yeah, the stock market, maybe pull up a chart. So like I mentioned if you want to pull up individual stocks like Microsoft for example that I like mentioned in the beginning um >> Alphabet uh the the you know the mag 7 have not done well >> in the last couple months >> um and one would argue that uh they are the market and by extension the market has already called has already dropped 20 30% like you called it. Um maybe then we can make the conclusion that this correction, this phase three uh topping pattern has already happened and maybe it's time to get back in. I don't know. I'll let you answer that. >> Yeah, I mean I think there's there's there's a lot to look at here. If we look at the individual stock like Microsoft, it put in this huge double top formation both times were big moves on news. Both times they also got sold off into it. then eventually put in kind of a a topping pattern. It broke down and since then it's formed a bearish pattern and of course it's it's still selling off and it still does not look very healthy. And so Microsoft that's a big red sign a big red flag for the markets. But when we step back and look at the bigger picture as you were mentioning the Magnificent 7, we are in a very unique uh situation here. So we had a we have this topping formation right through here with the magnificent 7 that this is a very critical support zone on the chart and if this breaks down which it actually broke down yesterday uh which is Thursday uh that is not a good sign. It is actually pointing to a fairly significant pullback. I think we could see the Magnificent 7 pull back roughly 20%. Which if the Mag 7 falls that much, it will pull the the NASDAQ down about 11%. 9 to 11% depending on which stocks. So just this chart alone, the fact that the Magnificent 7 have put in what looks to be a topping formation are breaking down that there is telling us that could be like a 9 to 11% move in the stock market and then throw in all the other stocks that will also get sold off. They could easily send the stock market tumbling. So, this is a huge red flag that we're seeing this breakdown and there's a lot of things that were screaming as the market broke down yesterday as that was happening. I've in fact we had we had panic selling on my short-term indicator when there was panic selling that is not a good sign when there's too much of it. So, if you have too many things line up, too many good things is a bad thing. So, panic selling on this green indicator. We also saw the uh the VIX spike up, David. It had a pretty good pop up into a resistance zone telling us there was kind of mass fear. Uh we saw the put call ratio close above one telling us that most people are buying put options. They're all betting on on falling pricing. Now this is a bit of a short-term contrarian indicator. Uh this is a very weird chart to look at. I like to look at this. It's a little thin blue line in the background, but it's moving up. People are naturally getting more and more bearish, which is good. But this short-term spike in the pall ratio and the panic selling and the VIX yesterday is a short-term indicator that we should see a bounce in equities today, but it's just going to be a little bare market bounce. And when we look at like the S&P 500 here, we have a little lower wick this morning on the daily chart. It's bounced back up, but overall, I think this is going to eventually get sold off into. And the S&P 500 has been holding up fairly well. When we when we look at it, we on a 30 minute chart and zoom back about a month and change, we keep seeing the stock market, the S&P 500 dip into these lime green areas. Now, these are oversold. This is typically when the market gets bought back up, institutions step back in or individuals buy the dips and we actually had that uh just early this morning on Friday as we talked about that. And now the market is bouncing and moving up. And surprisingly, we actually have our FOMO indicator, which usually puts in a short-term top for the markets kicking in today. And so, what's really interesting is the S&P 500 is still holding up above this major support line through here. But when we look over at the NASDAQ, which to me is the the big heavyweight and also has the magnificent uh seven in it, it has really broken down through this high uh through these series of highs. It broke all the way down and then it bounced up. And today when we're looking, we're seeing the stock market have a bit of a bounce, but the NASDAQ is just refusing to get traction. And we have when you have a downtrend, red, red bars, and our FOMO indicator spiking. Usually that means whoever's going to buy today is buying and next week we'll probably see sellers step back in. So the stock market looks very, very sick from the Magnificent 7 to the NASDAQ. And people are nervous. They don't know where to go and they they're not believing in gold either or silver right now. And that's why we're seeing money flow to the kind of the old defensive sectors that everybody used to go to before silver took on all the excitement and all in the magnificent 7. Before we continue with the video, let's talk about today's sponsor, Delete Me. Now, most people don't realize how much of their personal information is publicly available. Data brokers collect and sell details like your name, address, phone number, and even family connections. That's why I use Delete Me. It helps reduce that exposure. It takes just a few minutes to set up and then they do all the work. They scan for where your information appears, verify those listings, and submit removal requests to hundreds of data broker sites. They also keep monitoring over time since this information can resurface. I've been using it for over a year, and they have reviewed over 325 listings for my information. The reports show exactly what was found and what was removed, which makes the process transparent. Go to jointdeleteme.com/davidlin link down below or scan the QR code here and use my promo code David Linn for 20% off of all consumer plans. Now, back to the video. Yeah, if you look at something like the IYM ETF, for example, IYM is the materials ETF. Um and if you look at industrials and if you look at um uh uh GDX which is the uh gold miners index these these defensive traditionally considered defensive sectors have been outperforming the tech sector for quite some time now. Uh Chris um how are you playing this rotation if at all this market rotation that's already happened? Uh would you write this out or would you stay out now that it's already happened? So yeah, the markets have a lot of mixed signals even in the precious metals space. So for example, um if we take a look at GDX for example, it it has mixed signals in terms of the long-term trend. If you look at the long-term moving average, they're still sloping up. So the tide is still rising, but short-term and volumewise on the daily chart, there's a lot of damage done here. And this is actually pointing to potentially another big leg down. We could see miners fall about 15% very quickly here. Just uh using a simple kind of Fibonacci retracement or um extension level, we could see like GDX fall down to about 85 very quickly. And this is what gold is showing. This is what silver has a much more bearish outlook than this. It's uh it hasn't bounced and made higher higher lows and higher highs recently. So what we've done, I mean, we've we've moved out of most of the equities markets. We're still long the S&P 500. We closed out our NASDAQ play a little while ago. And we actually sold uh we sold our gold position right up into this area. We also sold and closed out our um most of half of our silver position right up at 113 uh way way up here. And just recently this week, I closed out the rest of my physical metal positions. So I'm completely out of metal. We've got huge moves since um 2019 and the 2020 COVID crash. We that's when we accumulated and now I have closed out my metal plays. Now if precious metals are to start another big leg and go parabolic and and have another huge surge, I will simply be playing the precious metal space with ETFs because I believe it'll be a very fast explosive move and it's just easy to get in and out with a click of a button with ETFs. But when it comes to physical metals, this is where I stand apart from I think most other people in the space, which is I believe price usually gets factored in, gets woven in before the news hits. Buy the rumor, sell the news. People are expecting big and bad things to happen in the economy. We're seeing all of that get priced into silver. We're seeing all of it get priced into gold. When you look at the gold chart, this is what we've seen in the past. and then suddenly when the bubble bursts, everything collapses and gets sold off. And so that's that's kind of where I'm at at this point is I'm locking in protecting capital. If precious metals build a launchpad, a bullish pattern here and want to go higher over the next few weeks, uh, and potentially scream, you know, gold 6,000 and silver, you know, 150 or something, I'll be taking advantage of that through an ETF. But I believe most of the damage I I believe most of the upside is done. I think there's a lot of downside potential going forward and the silver chart clearly shows this. So if we look at the silver chart, you know, we can look at this this this sharp drop to the downside, we depending on where we want to pull off one of these lows, it is pointing to a significant drop in price. It's looking for about $41 silver. And if we take the more drastic uh standout low over here, it is pointing to roughly $28 silver, which is what, you know, the market is not expecting. Of course, everybody a few weeks ago thought silver was going to 200 and 400. Uh and and and then silver the market always has a way of catching people off guard. So this is what the chart of silver is pointing to 40 or 28. And obviously that will wreak havoc with margin calls. That'll be probably, you know, one of the quickest, sharpest pullbacks in silver in in a long time. Um, so that's the downside. That's what I don't want to hold hold on to metals for. If metals build a base and start to go higher, I want to take part of it, but I am not going to hold on to a sinking ship uh that's made out of metal, right? So, I'd rather step aside and get back later or, you know, be able to pick it up at these rock bottom pricing when the next wave down kicks in cuz silver and precious metals have have run up on emotions and and a lot of excitement and this is only leg one. I think there's two waves that happen when it when it unwinds and this is we've only seen the first leg down. just curious and I want to get your levels in just a minute, but just curious why are you not using um let's say the GDX or GDXJ uh to play the M uh the to play the gold price. You mentioned you're using ETFs and uh you know these miners have had better leverage in the last 12 months. So uh just wondering why that's not something you're using. Yeah, it's it's I I find when we get into this particular type of environment where precious metals are in favor, they're the rising star. I find I find gold is the ultimate barometer and silver I like to play the physical. It's also outside of the stock market. So, if the stock market does sell off and start to crash, sometimes gold and silver will will hold up or move higher, but the miners might actually pull back because they're a stuck a stock stuck in the stock market. So, I've I'm not really that big into miners. I haven't been for a very very long time. I believe after we have a financial reset and gold and silver have corrected and miners get beat up really bad, that's when I'm going to be looking to get back into miners and more specifically probably like individual miners because I believe we're going to go into a multi-year run. I think this move up that we're having right now in in miners and in metals is a lot like what we saw back in uh 2008. I kind of you and I have touched on this many times. >> Yeah. >> I believe it is something similar to this. I think if we were to just zoom in, >> we saw gold trade sideways for a few years and then gold took off just before this. We went into the financial crisis and gold sold off. Miners got absolutely slaughtered. All of that stuff. So, I believe we are right here. I believe we're in this topping phase. And what's going to happen? We're going to see gold, silver, miners sell off eventually. This is when I start to get excited. This is when you I want to buy Golden Rockets because we go into a multi-year uh big move and this is this is when I'm going to be excited. And I've talked about this for many years saying I'm not interested in miners until this scenario unfolds. Until then, I like physical metals myself cuz I just like the way they move and um uh and it's just part of how I manage my portfolio. >> Okay. Can I show you my screen for just a minute here? And I want to just show you a chart and we'll switch back to your screen. uh take a look at gold here and I just want to show you how it's performing. Now, this kind of goes back to what you were talking about earlier, but I just want to show you this on my screen. Uh this is gold now and I want to zoom in to gold in 2011. So, gold kind of had this top, this brief double top. Uh then it fell very sharply um by the order of yeah 13% in a day or two uh in November or September 2011. This was during the peak of 2011. >> Sharp rebound then sideways action for basically a year >> and then for the uh upcoming one year it fell about 40% again. And so this is kind of reminiscent of what's going on now. And by the way, this is the second time that gold has done this. The first is 1980 >> um during which it did something similar. double top uh sharp drop, sharp rebound, then fell again. And right now it's doing the exact same thing. If you take a look at um this price action right now, uh like you were explaining just now, we had uh this top sharp drop, sharp rebound. Now it's trading sideways. And now we have this lingering question mark. Is it going to repeat the last two major bull cycles? Basically, it's only had three. This is the third one. uh third major bull cycle since uh 1971. And so, >> while we only have two real data points to show us what gold has done prior, and they've both performed in the exact same way, what's to say history won't be different this time, uh what do the charts say? Are we about to get sideways action and then another 50% drop, which is what we've had in the past? >> Yeah, I think you bring up some some really good points. So a good example is like another way to look at that too is uh here here's two charts of the silver uh weekly chart of silver. The top one is this year and we had a big runup. We had a pause in October. We had another little hiccup here just about a month and a half ago and then we had the blowoff phase all the way up to 120 and then silver has pulled back. And so that's where we are more or less right now. Look at what happened in 2011. Look at the charts like comparing like they they unfold. They moved very very similar. We had the sharp pullback in 2011. This is exactly what you just walked through, David, is like the market traded sideways. It drifted its way up, but then it eventually broke down. And it took a decade to come back, right? It took a very long time. And most investors are not expecting this, which is why there's a good reason it could happen. And I think um that's what we need to be aware of. And this this is exactly what unfolded in like the same drop almost 37. Well, when I drew this chart, it was 37 and 33%. Um, this pullback we've had now is a little bigger, as you said, about 40%. But we have a very similar chart pattern. This is typical psychology. We have a lot of people talking saying everything's being manipulated, all of this stuff. But just go to like GME, go to all these GameStop, all of these other emotional driven moves. They all do the same thing. Stock pricing is based on emotions. It's the staircase up, it's the elevator down. It's super emotional, very volatile. They kind of repeat themselves over and over again. It doesn't matter if it's a stock or a commodity. And you know, an interesting chart here, uh, David, is if we look at the silver chart, and again, this is kind of one area where, you know, I always go I go against the the grain for this, but let's take a look at the chart of silver. And let's just go way back in time. And if we look at the chart price action here, you and I have gone over this several times is, you know, this chart shows silver. You don't have to be a rocket science to figure out usually what happens when something goes parabolic and straight up. I mean, it went all the way up to here and now it's already starting to come back down. Now, the nice thing about this is I use a linear chart. That's why this you see these parabolic moves. I actually just did a presentation teaching the difference between linear and logarithmic and the power of using this style of chart. And so when you use this style of chart, you see these parabolic spikes. And seeing a parabolic spike is an emotional surge and it tells you to be aware to protect your capital. And everybody, you know, a lot of people in in this in the precious metal space, they all go to the log chart and they look at it like this, which looks totally different. And they have the exact opposite. that they are all talking about, well, there's a giant cup and handle pattern here. We should see $200 to $400 silver uh all of that stuff. This chart is saying the bull market, the next big cup handle has just started and it's going to 400. And maybe it has, but keep in mind this is a 45ear cycle. I won't even know my name by the time this thing plays out. And so this this chart and pattern is saying buy by buy. And then when you look at a linear chart, it's saying sell sell. And so you have to buy into your time frame. You got to figure out what strategy fits you, right? And even if this is and it most likely is the start of something way bigger for gold. The thing or for silver thing is this could pull back and trade sideways from here and and just over to here is five years, right? and and then and then it could start that next big move up. And that's what you just talked about. 2011, we saw things trade sideways for a while. It faded down. It took a few years to recover. So, you have to really, you know, focus, not get sucked into big lofty pricing that's based on chart patterns that are way outside your time frame. And um so that's where I am with at silver. I think, you know, when you look at these big pictures, I totally agree. I think gold will be 10, 15, 20,000 in 10, 20, 30 years. I think silver will be dramatically higher. But there's going to be decades in there that are lost that I think anybody who's been in the precious metal space for a long time knows how painful it is to hold gold miners after they peaked in 2011, right? It's like you hold on to them for a decade and you just wish you did something else and then you can get back in when they turn up and something like that could happen again. And so I think it's really important for people to step back and you know maybe not drink all the Kool-Aid from the precious metals space which is like you know crazy ludicrous pricing. This time is different. Um and even if it is different you know you have to have a strategy to get back in which is kind of what I've been focusing on trimming out of physical metals getting ready for faster plays in ETFs because we could see another big parabolic spike and I don't want to miss it. But I also I'm not going to expect that this time is different than any other time because every other time plays out the same. It's not the end of the world. Prices fall back down, you know, all of that stuff. So, I'd rather go with what normally happens and kind of manage positions from there. >> I'm going to show you one more chart uh before I pass it back to you. Now, Chris, I'm going to show silver with gold and copper and palladium and platinum. I've showed this on my show a couple times in the last week. Um and I want to just get your opinion. The reason I'm showing this is because all these metals moved concurrently at the same time. So, we have um let's take a look at what happened here. So, I had you on the show uh January 30th or late January >> um or not not January 30th, but uh >> it was the 26th 28th or something like that. Yeah. >> Yeah. 25th to 26th. uh you warned us about this coming drop and then all of these metals, all of these hard uh uh commodities dropped exactly on the same day, rebounded exactly on the same day. The magnitude of the drop was, you know, it varied per asset class, but the direction was all the same, the timing was all exactly the same. >> You're looking at this chart as a trader. What's your first conclusion here? Yeah, I and I I teach this all the time is a stock, it doesn't matter what stock or sector you have or what index you have or what global index you have, pretty much when the stock market crashes, almost all stocks go down. A stock, I don't care what it is, is the same trade. It's an equity and these there's naturally es and flows that they all move together. Precious metals are the exact same thing. Doesn't matter if you have platinum, platium, copper, miners, whatever it is, right? it. They are all the same trade. It's the same sectors as you as you just said, David, just some have bigger magnitude swings than the other percentage- wise, but they pretty much all move together. And that's why like so many people are like, "Oh, I'm diversified. I got a whole bunch of different metals and stuff. I'm good." I'm like, "No, you just hold a whole bunch of rocket ships that they're all going to crash at the same time." Uh, so the whole key and my whole strategy philosophy is like own an asset class when it's going up. Precious metals, I don't care. Mix them up, play them all. But when it starts to show signs of weakness, you need to lock in profits and and lock in the gains. >> And it's the same with the stock market. There's a time to hold stocks and a time to just step away. And it's not about having positions on all the time. It's about protecting what you have. And um uh understanding that it's not about, you know, always trying to pull money out of the market. If you can avoid big losses, you can make a lot more money in the long run than riding things out. >> I got this text from a personal friend. Uh I'm not going to show who it is. He knows who he is. But uh this is the text. He sent me this on well last week, February 5th. He basically sent me this screenshot and he was invested in some medals and other things. And you see like this well I guess he was following this ultra silver down 30%. uh critical metals uh metals corp uh 18% strategy Michael Sailor Strategy down 17% uh yeah silver gold you see these doubledigit drops in a single day and I I can understand why some people are just panicking or worried past tense I just so just for the generalist audience out there the traders and the investors who may be sim uh sending similar texts to their friends as well or have in the last two weeks how do How do you approach a day like this when the things on your, you know, on your on your watch list are down double digits? >> Uh, well, hopefully you have like a trading strategy in place, right? If you've got stops in place, the markets just keep crashing. You just got to watch it go through your stop and and take you out of a trade. I mean, that's why they're there. They'll protect you from further losses. A lot of people I mean, it's easy to panic. I mean, even on those days it was dropping, my heart was pounding. And I'm like, "Holy cow, this is like unprecedented." Uh, I mean, luckily, we had sold a bunch of our positions right up at the peak a few days ago, so we end up with an an average good exit. But when it's selling like that, I'm not a big fan of of of dumping stocks on a big sell-off day. Usually, you're going to see it bounce and have a pause. You can get a gauge for it, but it definitely has to stay w within your your protective range. Like, you have to give it lots of breathing space. Uh, and it's really tough to do when you're in something in a bubble. And you and I talked about this a long time ago. It's like when something's in a bubble, you can't pick the top. You don't know how high it's going. But when it bursts, man, it comes straight back down. And so, I I guess it really comes down to managing your positions. Like that odd list there, that that list is obviously >> somebody very very speculative, probably younger. It's all double leveraged silver and inverse. Like it's, you know, it's Bitcoin, MSTR, right? It's uh not the stuff that I would be dabbling in myself, but when you trade leverage and fastmoving stuff, it makes for a very emotional experience in the markets. >> Do you have a system in place for disciplining yourself to control these emotions when you have roller coaster days up or down? >> We do. Yeah. There I have a what I call an asset hierarchy. So, we naturally as volatility picks up uh we naturally move away from faster moving assets. So if the stock market's moving very quickly, we'll move out of stocks and we could go to bonds, we could go to a currency, we may even just move to cash and we will literally step aside. Jumping into a market when there's ton tons of volatility is like jumping into quicksand or boiling water. It is absolutely painful if you're on the wrong side and things move so fast back and forth. It's just it creates a lot of emotions and it'll make you get in and out of trades. You'll start to revenge trade. Um, I recently was talking to somebody, they had lost a lot of money on the silver crash and um, surprisingly they didn't want to get back in. This one person, they're like, "I'm just going to let everything calm down. I need to calm down." And I talked to other people who are like, they got back in and they bought double leverage and they're waiting for they played this little bounce that we've had and they're trying to make it back. But it gets very dangerous once you start playing revenge. Like, I got to make back what I just lost cuz uh, when one of those backfires, you end up losing a lot more even quicker. >> Okay, Chris. Uh let's talk a little bit about Bitcoin before we close off. >> Uh it's it's been having its own roller coaster. Down 5% up 5%. It's up 5% today. It was down, >> you know, single digits uh in one day in the past week. Let's pull up a chart of Bitcoin and tell us what's going on right now. >> Sure. Yeah. The Bitcoin chart looks pretty sick. It has. It has for a while. Um when when we look at the long-term trends, I like to look at this big green moving average. which is the 150day moving average. Naturally, if the 150day is sloping up and and price is generally above it, then you're you're in a bullish environment. But when it is sloping down and price is naturally below it, you enter what I call is like a stage four or a stage a topping phase or a stage four. And you and I have touched on this many times, which uh we can see right here. Think of this dotted line as the 150day moving average. when price starts to trade below it and it starts to slope down, we are entering the late stages or the early stages of a bare market. And that is exactly what Bitcoin is starting to do. It is definitely broken down below the key moving average long enough. It's sloping down. It's got this bare flag pattern. And the price charts for Bitcoin still look very bearish. In fact, Bitcoin chart, the daily chart here, is still pointing to roughly 51,000. So, it came all the way down and hit our our the golden ratio, the 618 extension. And as I always follow this pretty much, if this level is hit and price takes a pause and has a bit of a hiccup in in price, we almost always go down and see this 100% measured move. So, Bitcoin is about to go off a big cliff here and um have another leg to the downside. And I think that might be uh in line with what we're about to see with the stock market. I think we could see equities in general sell off and have this next leg down and the big question is is silver and gold going to follow suit. Are all of them going to move as one big bout of panic selling? And you know those two days of panic selling that we saw on precious metals, it also happened in Bitcoin, but it was it was broad market selling on the stock market just like we saw yesterday. And when you get into the late stage three or a stage four bare market, it's always broad market selling. And broad market selling means everybody just liquidates everything. They're scared. They don't know what to do. And there's there's usually margin calls kicking in every day as prices hit new levels and it pulls everything down. So, I'd be very bearish here on Bitcoin. Um, I'm pretty bearish bearish on everything. Uh, we're out of metals. We're still on the S&P 500 with a a small position and the rest is sitting in cash because this market is trying to figure out if it is going to start a new leg higher with some new news or if it is about to break down and go for a a nose dive. >> If you had to place a wager in terms of which direction has a higher probability at that point, what would you say >> in which asset class? And Bitcoin here. >> Yeah, Bitcoin. I would I would say it's going to go sideways to down like that's I think it's just having a pause here but I think it's going lower. >> Okay. What do you make of comments where uh you know I see this on my show sometimes when I have a guest on he says something I I just had a guest on yesterday uh David Woo great great economist and he said Bitcoin is finished where he said maybe close to that. Um and then you see the comments that's a bullish signal. Thanks for thanks for releasing this today. That just gave me a bias signal. you know, I see a bunch of these comments. Um, I can you just can you just maybe comment on some of these comments here? Like, does that Can you understand the logic here? >> Uh, yeah. There's there's a lot of negative people and trolls out there. Like, I get that all the time on on your channel, too. I'll say something, oh, Chris is bearish on gold. It's time to buy. Like, I mean, it's just the way there's there's people out there that love to challenge. There's people who don't follow or understand what I do and the time frames. >> But do you do something similar in the sense that if you see like let's say on mainstream news or some other some other show someone's really bearish on something where someone's really bullish on something, do you take the contrarian trade? I think that's what I'm getting at. >> No. No. So if if an expert or something is has got a opinion, I don't really track that. What I actually follow is the mass psychology. I've got tools and ways to gauge of like what is everybody doing? I don't care what one expert just said on a channel, even even if it's in line or against me. It's I want to know what everyone else is doing and I want to I try to feel their energy. >> I see. Great. Well, Chris, tell us where we can find your uh your work and um what we can find there. >> Sure. Yeah. The uh the best way if you want to get a feel of what I do every morning. I I post a video on YouTube. You can check that out on my analysis, but I share my exact ETF trades in my portfolio. So, you can copy along everything I do. you know, when I get in, when I get out, my my stops, my targets. I have 5 to 12 trades a year. And uh I do that at thetechnicaltraders.com. And it's a really simple way to to learn the markets, have your finger on the pulse. When there's panic days, you're not one the one of the people panicking or feeling left behind because we explain what's going on. We usually see it coming the day before. And so, it's just a great way to navigate the markets without panicking and you can sleep better at night and and uh you don't have to ride things down. I mean, we step aside when the charts are telling us to step aside. And uh the charts really are the key, you know, that's the only way we make money as investors. If price moves in favor, so we don't follow news or economic data or what we think or feel. We just simply follow the money and uh that's it. >> Okay, great. Appreciate your help, Chris, and appreciate your time. Follow Chris in the link down below and don't forget to like and subscribe. Thanks, Chris. See you next time.