This Week In Charts Ep 228: Tech Bubble 2025 Will Keep Going? Stocks, Bonds & Gold All Going Higher?
Summary
Market Outlook: The market has broken out of its range, with the NASDAQ reaching new highs, but there are concerns about a potential correction as the market approaches the FOMC meeting.
Company Highlights: Oracle experienced a significant 40% stock surge despite earnings misses, driven by ambitious revenue projections, while Broadcom also saw notable gains.
Investment Risks: The market is showing signs of a potential blowoff mode, with CTA positioning maxed out and the possibility of a corrective move post-FOMC meeting.
Sector Performance: Energy stocks like XLE and XOP are holding up well, with potential for further gains, while financials show mixed signals with KRE looking poised for another push.
Commodity Insights: Gold and silver have seen strong performances, with GDX reaching new all-time highs, but caution is advised due to potential overbought conditions.
Interest Rates and Bonds: Interest rates are experiencing slight bounces, with TLT showing a bullish impulse, but caution is advised ahead of the Fed's announcement.
Cryptocurrency Movement: Ethereum is finally showing upward momentum, with Bitcoin holding steady, indicating potential bullish trends in the crypto market.
Key Takeaways: Investors should remain cautious as the market approaches a known volatility event with the Fed meeting, amidst signs of euphoria and potential market highs.
Transcript
All right, everyone. Welcome back for another episode of This Week in Charts via Carnivore Trades and Wall Street for Main Street. If you guys not done so already, don't forget to give the video a thumbs up, like, comment, subscribe to the channel, and come find Jason on Patreon as well as me on carnivores.com for swing trading analysis and live day trading. Let's get into it here this week. So, the markets this week, um, a lot of news to cover. We're going into a Fed week next week and that will be all important as the market has now finally broken out of this range and we talked about this I talked about it extensively for a while pretty much going back to like late July um which I said it would be a very tough test to get through 50 6500 excuse me and um I don't see us going too much past that well we are about 100 points uh past it now um you know which is about you know one and a half% or so it's not a huge amount but nonetheless the market is trying to to break out here um into or ahead of the FOMC and there's a couple of things going on this week, namely um you know a few just really crazy headlines here. um one of them being Oracle and you can see this week um a massive move here up over 40% after earnings and they double missed on earnings too but it was their um pretty much nothing short of crazy uh projections over the next couple of years here and you can see they're basically projecting that they're going to 70x their revenue into 2030. Um, you know, if you want to, um, buy into that, you're more than welcome to. Um, I'm just here to report what happened. But, um, yeah, and this is a this is not, um, you know, a midcap small company. This is Oracle, right? Almost a $300 billion company. Uh, up 40% in one session. Now, it has sold off since then. Larry Ellison actually passing Elon Musk as the richest man in the world. I don't know if he still is uh now that Oracle's come in, but just total um we're just seeing insane moves here lately um with this market. Even Broadcom uh was a big move last week just getting another free like 10% the other day on the back of that. We're seeing a a market that is really kind of in to me uh I would say it's close to like a blowoff mode and I'm still going to say that there is definitely I know a lot of people are starting to to flip bull and call for you know 7,000 and all these other numbers. Um, but going into the Fed here, um, you know, we're pumping pretty hard and to me, I know the NASDAQ did make a new high today, but the fact that it took so long, you know, we're this is basically a month to the day here. Um, whereas you have the other indexes, S&P, Russell, and the Dow all taking out that high from the I believe it was the 13th. Yeah, 13th August. Um, you know, well, you know, weeks and weeks ago. I say this because typically the market likes to top out with the NASDAQ topping first, maybe making a slight nominal high um and the other indexes, you know, seeing a big bread thrust and seeing these other indexes play catch-up at the end. Um similar to what we saw in late Feb. Um you know, spiders actually were making new highs, right? Um we've seen this time and time again, you know, July of last year. um S&P making a new high Q with the lower high and it happened you know a year before as well. So this is nothing new here. Um so I'm I'm definitely very guarded here. Is the market just kind of in vertical mode? I mean even the QES themselves up that's eight days in a row here and we're going into the Fed, right? So it seems to me the market is pricing this for perfection and if we get any, you know, sense of hawkishness now uh sorry 25 basis points is baked into the cake. um we're not getting 50, but what could change things are obviously like the guidance what Powell says. Um from there on out we also have I mean like TLT here um this is pumping up too uh this whole week really. Uh it's down a little bit today but you know gold as well has had a very nice run here. We'll talk a little bit about silver in a little bit um as far as LBMA shortages, but I think we're starting to see kind of like a culmination of this this particular trade over the last month or two. Um and it may be coming to a head next week, but nonetheless, you know, market is still, you know, trend is up. We're above all the moving averages. We're still going higher. So, you know, the benefit of the doubt has to be given to the bulls until proven otherwise. But I do see personally um for me quite a bit of risk up here. Um, additionally, you know, you have CTA positioning now maxed out here and um, that is, you know, an an indication that, you know, the momentum here is kind of, you know, all in, right? Um, there's there's not much here that to chase left. So, um, I would just say be careful. There's still, you know, going into the next couple of weeks into options into end of quarter. Yes, the price is above 6,500, but I've not seen dealers change their position. Um, and that means that I think once some of this gamma starts to roll off next week, we could see a very quick, you know, corrective move. I know it seems insane, but um, and by corrective move, I don't mean two days u like we've had one or two times here. I mean like an actual corrective move. Um but right now market is running away here and um it can go a lot higher before it goes lower but the higher it goes usually the harder it falls. So 6600 is your next kind of challenge right now and that's there's going to be a pretty good call there. We could actually top out in this area. Um there's a lot of talk about the uh this you know the quadruple six number. Remember we yeah so that would only be 60 70 points away from here. Um, and that's actually what we bottomed at in uh 2008. So, nonetheless, market's holding up. Um, I see a lot of lot of red flags, though, personally. So, that's all I'll say about that. Outside of that, again, to go to the cues here. Next little level is about 590. So, that's a mathematical level there. And, you know, we could get there next week on the Fed easily. Um, IWM has, you know, it has outperformed lately. Today, it's on the weaker side. Actually earlier this week it had underperformed just a little bit but had a nice day yesterday and it hit our 240 target. So we've been looking for that for a long time and that has finally been achieved. You know next is obviously your your previous all-time high at 245. Dow um we've been talking about this bull inside pattern and it broke out yesterday. So a little pause here today. So no real problems. Um there's another trend line here I'm watching if this does like continue to just like blow off uh up to 470. So somewhere in that area. We'll see if that that ends up happening. It might not. The Dow is a little bit fickle because it is price cap weighted. Even the Dow pushing up here. Um SMH uh new weekly all-time closing high. Although at the same time, even with Broadcom as much as it up as much as it is, I think this would be even up more. And it's really not a lot of money coming out of Nvidia here. It has not made a high in like pretty much a month. So, it has, you know, it has gotten a nice rebound here um from last week or so, but still no new highs there. And that has a that is a, you know, it's the largest stock in the market. Has a big waiting. We had IGV obviously up thanks to Oracle for the most part. Um, and that did get close to new alltime highs. Didn't quite make it though. I think we got a close. Yeah, it's clo not gonna it's not going to get there today, but close to a it's a second uh highest weekly all-time closing high for IGV and weekly trend again still up right never really broke that even though it was underperforming for a while it did it did hold up pretty well on the weekly time frame. Got the transports here um backed into this trend line again and I mean this is your line in the sand, right? If this breaks, um, you know, that kind of just negates this whole kind of like bull impulse up move. Um, but right now it's holding up. It's got a big fat reversal bar that price is inside of. So, be aware of that. And you have lower highs here. Again, another, you know, just to go over red flags. I mean, you know, lower highs in the transports versus higher highs in the stock market. That said, the chart itself, you know, no real problems with it, just from an overall perspective, something to be careful for and consider. All right. Um, interest rates today, a little bit of a bounce here on the 2-year. They've had a small up week. What I'm really watching is the 10ens and 30s right now. We had a bounce here at the 4% psychological level. Um, so we hit that yesterday, just touched it, and we're getting a bounce here. Again, I think rates like to flip to the inverse to say TLT for instance. You know, I I I do think this is a nice bull impulse on TLT, especially given that it gapped above the 200 moving average. Um there we got unadjusted for dividends there, but you can see that. Um that said, I can't, you know, I can't advocate getting long here. Um, in fact, if anything, I think if we get a little bit more of a flush out in yields, there might be a little bounce play next week on the Fed. It just seems like this market wants to pump and the trade that's been working, uh, which is, you know, long bonds, long stocks, long gold. I think that's going to maintain the case into the Fed and we'll see if it ends up being a sell or yeah, buy the rumors, sell the news type deal because it certainly feels that way. But yeah, through 4% 10. Um, notice how this trend line here, that big master trend line, coincides with that previous low right here at about 3, we'll call it 385 to 390. So, that would be an interesting uh interesting spot there on the 10-year. XHP had a decent week, although it it is red, but you know, it pulled back and it had held the moving averages. So, again, I think XHP will go to new highs. I just don't know if it's going to do it right now. But XHP acting well. IYR um firmed up pretty nicely yesterday. A little pause there today. And yeah, that that's acted a lot better here. It's it looks good on the weekly. So, I got shaken out of this um for like a small gain a couple of times. Uh this this might be setting up here for another push here. XHP and IYR tend to take turns sometimes, too. All right, financials. Uh we talked about that reversal last week. That was a red flag. It did pop back up. Still has not closed above it. And you still, you know, to be fair, the trend is up, but we're still, we are still inside of that red. So XLF a little softer here. KRE looks like it wants to have one more push, though. So I would say as long as KRE is holding up, we'll give banks the benefit of the doubt. Um this is the more risk laden uh bank ETF, right? Because they're smaller. They're regional. Um but yeah, it's holding trend. And it looks like it wants to get a one more push here. So KR looking okay. Uh broker dealers never triggered the head and shoulders. We'll leave the trend line there just for fun. Um and it's just off alltime highs. Leave Robin Hood get uh I don't know if it was this week or last week. I think it was Yeah, it was last week they got included in the S&P. So there's the Monday push there. But anyway, uh oil interesting stuff here. a lot of geopolitical news coming out. There's a lot of stuff going on with Israel. I believe there was talk with um Trump and sanctions with Russia that um that would be part of the peace deal. Anyway, oil got a spike. It hit 64. We've been talking about that as the big uh level here in the near term and it backed off. So, if it gets through 64, it can squeeze. But I I just don't have any I mean I'll tell if it gets through 64 it'll squeeze. I just don't know if it's going to. This pattern is not good enough to give me a like probable scenario to say yes or no. I will say though, I know 60 is support, but given how much we've consolidated here and given how much there's lower highs, I would be I would not want to buy that at this point if it got there unless you did some sort of like spike down and then it like squeezed back through. But I would not bid that outright at all. That said, oil stocks are holding up pretty well. XLE now basically all but confirming a higher low here. So this is why I like charts too because even though you trade through these these wedge patterns, sometimes the trend lines still respect and uh it's respecting right now. So higher low there and uh yeah, it's it's all but it's all but achieved a higher high. We got the XOP. Same thing. It's actually going to be able to looks like it's going to hold the 200 daily uh by the end of the week. And this weekly pattern here, let me get rid of all these lines. Just get rid of this um to clean it up. Like it's not a bad bull pattern. It's chewing through all this supply here that were trapped buyers. If it can push through these moving averages, it's got a chance to to really repair. And what the other one that impresses me too is OIH. It's not going to get that weekly close above 260. But it's s it's pretty close and uh it's doing the same thing. Now if it gets rejected here you know it gets rejected but it has outperformed a little bit lately. So energy stocks again remember they they're heavily correlated to the price of oil but not always. Um again with the dollar talked about TLT talked about these this kind of I don't want to say pair trade but you know this sort of long bonds you know short dollar long gold type deal long stocks the dollar a very tight range here by the way but the the pressure is to the downside and again I have to think that it's probably going to try and spike down on the Fed and um we'll see there there could be a squeeze here if if Um, too many shorts get in this. I know the chart's weak. There's nothing really good for it, but this just hold this whole setup here just really to me like in stocks and TLT and gold really reeks of a buy the rumor, sell the news setup. So, be careful with dollar here. I'm not playing it personally, but those are my thoughts. But anyway, gold here, uh, kind of a sideways week. So, it had a little pop Monday and then it's just kind of flagging right now. It did have a little reversal on Tuesday. A little uptick in volume there. So, just be aware of that. That said, the miners, look at this GDX, new all-time highs. You guys have been waiting a long time for this, haven't you? So, new all-time highs there. SIL, uh, we talked about the monthly breakout about 55 and that's continuing up here right now. So, that is a, you know, that's a positive for the the spot metal, right, when the miners are leading. That said, I'm just going to be, you know, just going to tell you to be cautious, right? We're we are parabolic now. We're parabolic. Uh, you know, like if we look at a GDX just for instance, like, you know, RSI here, it's really hot. Um, not that that necessarily means anything. It can go more overbought, but it's hot. And again, you're going to the Fed. You know, this was at $50 a month ago. It's at 70 now. Um, you know, like first Majestic Silver was at, you know, back in May it was at 550. It's at 1050. Uh, there's plenty of other, you know, instances of this. I mean, even GDXJ it's $50 to tonight. It's up almost 100%, you know, in less than a year where, you know, and even just a month ago 65, right? They're vertical here and we're going into an announcement, a Fed announcement of rate cut that everybody knows about. So you're not gaining any alpha by buying up here. That said, we might see a little bit more squeezing here in silver LBMA. Now, uh lease rate lease rates have spiked again. And um these types of things can cause wild moves, especially I've seen them before uh in silver. But again, just be aware like we are up a lot here. That said, we're at we touched $43 uh last night in the overnight. The last time we were at $43 was right before the high in April. Like literally like days before the high. But what is different this time? This is the positive. You were already parabolic for like almost like nine months by the time it got to 43 last time. It's just broken out recently, right? So you had a nice base here. Then you had another kind of base, right? Look at the weekly. That's nice. So, it's much healthier this time, but it is still up a lot into that. So, just keep that in mind. I just don't want anybody chasing into a known volatility event. Uh, platinum here still holding up. Um, yeah, up $8 and yeah, as long as it can hold 14, it's fine. Careful of a lower high though. Um, palladium nice move. It got above our levels we talked about 1,200. It shot right through that, but this may have a in fact bet you there's a 618. Yep. Look at that. See, you can just eyeball it sometimes. Right into a 618. So, that may need to stall out a little bit. And then copper is uh continuing to be uneventful here. Um, but it did get back above 463, but nothing there. It's on the quiet side still. Lastly, we got Bitcoin and E uh moving right now. Actually, Ethereum finally finally starting to curl up here. I mean, this took a long time, but it finally started and um yeah, you know, good pop. So, we'll see that bull inside bar can play out. Now, I'm trying to get this set up for you. Uh 4670 is your next level. That's a 618. And it also coincides over so we can see it easier. See how it coincides with this prior breakdown and then these pivots here. So that's your next big I mean it basically yeah it's basically there now. So but either way you get the you get the idea. So maybe a little bit of a an area to stall out, but nice uh rebound finally. And uh Bitcoin. Um you know, holding up well. I think last week we were see this was Monday. Yeah, last week it was a little soft. Remember going to the weekend, but it uh it firmed up nicely this week. 116 and a half is still uh resistance here, which maybe kind of coincides with that that level I just showed you on Ethereum. So anyway, market's holding up right now. Um, got a little bit of time to the close into the afternoon, but you know, we're just sitting beneath 6,600 and, you know, maybe they make a run at at the end of the day. I don't think it really matters at this point. Um, the volatility will likely die down Monday and Tuesday as we get ready for the Fed, but you know, just be careful here. Um, a lot of euphoria going on. A lot of wild moves and a lot of things you see, um, just wacky market wackiness here. things that you see close to a high typically and um again just this you know you're going into a known volatility event everything is known that what the Fed is going to do as far as policy so just be aware of that heading into it anyways guys I'll wrap it up here again you guys take care don't forget to come find Jason on Patreon come find me at carnivorrades.com I'll see you guys all next
This Week In Charts Ep 228: Tech Bubble 2025 Will Keep Going? Stocks, Bonds & Gold All Going Higher?
Summary
Transcript
All right, everyone. Welcome back for another episode of This Week in Charts via Carnivore Trades and Wall Street for Main Street. If you guys not done so already, don't forget to give the video a thumbs up, like, comment, subscribe to the channel, and come find Jason on Patreon as well as me on carnivores.com for swing trading analysis and live day trading. Let's get into it here this week. So, the markets this week, um, a lot of news to cover. We're going into a Fed week next week and that will be all important as the market has now finally broken out of this range and we talked about this I talked about it extensively for a while pretty much going back to like late July um which I said it would be a very tough test to get through 50 6500 excuse me and um I don't see us going too much past that well we are about 100 points uh past it now um you know which is about you know one and a half% or so it's not a huge amount but nonetheless the market is trying to to break out here um into or ahead of the FOMC and there's a couple of things going on this week, namely um you know a few just really crazy headlines here. um one of them being Oracle and you can see this week um a massive move here up over 40% after earnings and they double missed on earnings too but it was their um pretty much nothing short of crazy uh projections over the next couple of years here and you can see they're basically projecting that they're going to 70x their revenue into 2030. Um, you know, if you want to, um, buy into that, you're more than welcome to. Um, I'm just here to report what happened. But, um, yeah, and this is a this is not, um, you know, a midcap small company. This is Oracle, right? Almost a $300 billion company. Uh, up 40% in one session. Now, it has sold off since then. Larry Ellison actually passing Elon Musk as the richest man in the world. I don't know if he still is uh now that Oracle's come in, but just total um we're just seeing insane moves here lately um with this market. Even Broadcom uh was a big move last week just getting another free like 10% the other day on the back of that. We're seeing a a market that is really kind of in to me uh I would say it's close to like a blowoff mode and I'm still going to say that there is definitely I know a lot of people are starting to to flip bull and call for you know 7,000 and all these other numbers. Um, but going into the Fed here, um, you know, we're pumping pretty hard and to me, I know the NASDAQ did make a new high today, but the fact that it took so long, you know, we're this is basically a month to the day here. Um, whereas you have the other indexes, S&P, Russell, and the Dow all taking out that high from the I believe it was the 13th. Yeah, 13th August. Um, you know, well, you know, weeks and weeks ago. I say this because typically the market likes to top out with the NASDAQ topping first, maybe making a slight nominal high um and the other indexes, you know, seeing a big bread thrust and seeing these other indexes play catch-up at the end. Um similar to what we saw in late Feb. Um you know, spiders actually were making new highs, right? Um we've seen this time and time again, you know, July of last year. um S&P making a new high Q with the lower high and it happened you know a year before as well. So this is nothing new here. Um so I'm I'm definitely very guarded here. Is the market just kind of in vertical mode? I mean even the QES themselves up that's eight days in a row here and we're going into the Fed, right? So it seems to me the market is pricing this for perfection and if we get any, you know, sense of hawkishness now uh sorry 25 basis points is baked into the cake. um we're not getting 50, but what could change things are obviously like the guidance what Powell says. Um from there on out we also have I mean like TLT here um this is pumping up too uh this whole week really. Uh it's down a little bit today but you know gold as well has had a very nice run here. We'll talk a little bit about silver in a little bit um as far as LBMA shortages, but I think we're starting to see kind of like a culmination of this this particular trade over the last month or two. Um and it may be coming to a head next week, but nonetheless, you know, market is still, you know, trend is up. We're above all the moving averages. We're still going higher. So, you know, the benefit of the doubt has to be given to the bulls until proven otherwise. But I do see personally um for me quite a bit of risk up here. Um, additionally, you know, you have CTA positioning now maxed out here and um, that is, you know, an an indication that, you know, the momentum here is kind of, you know, all in, right? Um, there's there's not much here that to chase left. So, um, I would just say be careful. There's still, you know, going into the next couple of weeks into options into end of quarter. Yes, the price is above 6,500, but I've not seen dealers change their position. Um, and that means that I think once some of this gamma starts to roll off next week, we could see a very quick, you know, corrective move. I know it seems insane, but um, and by corrective move, I don't mean two days u like we've had one or two times here. I mean like an actual corrective move. Um but right now market is running away here and um it can go a lot higher before it goes lower but the higher it goes usually the harder it falls. So 6600 is your next kind of challenge right now and that's there's going to be a pretty good call there. We could actually top out in this area. Um there's a lot of talk about the uh this you know the quadruple six number. Remember we yeah so that would only be 60 70 points away from here. Um, and that's actually what we bottomed at in uh 2008. So, nonetheless, market's holding up. Um, I see a lot of lot of red flags, though, personally. So, that's all I'll say about that. Outside of that, again, to go to the cues here. Next little level is about 590. So, that's a mathematical level there. And, you know, we could get there next week on the Fed easily. Um, IWM has, you know, it has outperformed lately. Today, it's on the weaker side. Actually earlier this week it had underperformed just a little bit but had a nice day yesterday and it hit our 240 target. So we've been looking for that for a long time and that has finally been achieved. You know next is obviously your your previous all-time high at 245. Dow um we've been talking about this bull inside pattern and it broke out yesterday. So a little pause here today. So no real problems. Um there's another trend line here I'm watching if this does like continue to just like blow off uh up to 470. So somewhere in that area. We'll see if that that ends up happening. It might not. The Dow is a little bit fickle because it is price cap weighted. Even the Dow pushing up here. Um SMH uh new weekly all-time closing high. Although at the same time, even with Broadcom as much as it up as much as it is, I think this would be even up more. And it's really not a lot of money coming out of Nvidia here. It has not made a high in like pretty much a month. So, it has, you know, it has gotten a nice rebound here um from last week or so, but still no new highs there. And that has a that is a, you know, it's the largest stock in the market. Has a big waiting. We had IGV obviously up thanks to Oracle for the most part. Um, and that did get close to new alltime highs. Didn't quite make it though. I think we got a close. Yeah, it's clo not gonna it's not going to get there today, but close to a it's a second uh highest weekly all-time closing high for IGV and weekly trend again still up right never really broke that even though it was underperforming for a while it did it did hold up pretty well on the weekly time frame. Got the transports here um backed into this trend line again and I mean this is your line in the sand, right? If this breaks, um, you know, that kind of just negates this whole kind of like bull impulse up move. Um, but right now it's holding up. It's got a big fat reversal bar that price is inside of. So, be aware of that. And you have lower highs here. Again, another, you know, just to go over red flags. I mean, you know, lower highs in the transports versus higher highs in the stock market. That said, the chart itself, you know, no real problems with it, just from an overall perspective, something to be careful for and consider. All right. Um, interest rates today, a little bit of a bounce here on the 2-year. They've had a small up week. What I'm really watching is the 10ens and 30s right now. We had a bounce here at the 4% psychological level. Um, so we hit that yesterday, just touched it, and we're getting a bounce here. Again, I think rates like to flip to the inverse to say TLT for instance. You know, I I I do think this is a nice bull impulse on TLT, especially given that it gapped above the 200 moving average. Um there we got unadjusted for dividends there, but you can see that. Um that said, I can't, you know, I can't advocate getting long here. Um, in fact, if anything, I think if we get a little bit more of a flush out in yields, there might be a little bounce play next week on the Fed. It just seems like this market wants to pump and the trade that's been working, uh, which is, you know, long bonds, long stocks, long gold. I think that's going to maintain the case into the Fed and we'll see if it ends up being a sell or yeah, buy the rumors, sell the news type deal because it certainly feels that way. But yeah, through 4% 10. Um, notice how this trend line here, that big master trend line, coincides with that previous low right here at about 3, we'll call it 385 to 390. So, that would be an interesting uh interesting spot there on the 10-year. XHP had a decent week, although it it is red, but you know, it pulled back and it had held the moving averages. So, again, I think XHP will go to new highs. I just don't know if it's going to do it right now. But XHP acting well. IYR um firmed up pretty nicely yesterday. A little pause there today. And yeah, that that's acted a lot better here. It's it looks good on the weekly. So, I got shaken out of this um for like a small gain a couple of times. Uh this this might be setting up here for another push here. XHP and IYR tend to take turns sometimes, too. All right, financials. Uh we talked about that reversal last week. That was a red flag. It did pop back up. Still has not closed above it. And you still, you know, to be fair, the trend is up, but we're still, we are still inside of that red. So XLF a little softer here. KRE looks like it wants to have one more push, though. So I would say as long as KRE is holding up, we'll give banks the benefit of the doubt. Um this is the more risk laden uh bank ETF, right? Because they're smaller. They're regional. Um but yeah, it's holding trend. And it looks like it wants to get a one more push here. So KR looking okay. Uh broker dealers never triggered the head and shoulders. We'll leave the trend line there just for fun. Um and it's just off alltime highs. Leave Robin Hood get uh I don't know if it was this week or last week. I think it was Yeah, it was last week they got included in the S&P. So there's the Monday push there. But anyway, uh oil interesting stuff here. a lot of geopolitical news coming out. There's a lot of stuff going on with Israel. I believe there was talk with um Trump and sanctions with Russia that um that would be part of the peace deal. Anyway, oil got a spike. It hit 64. We've been talking about that as the big uh level here in the near term and it backed off. So, if it gets through 64, it can squeeze. But I I just don't have any I mean I'll tell if it gets through 64 it'll squeeze. I just don't know if it's going to. This pattern is not good enough to give me a like probable scenario to say yes or no. I will say though, I know 60 is support, but given how much we've consolidated here and given how much there's lower highs, I would be I would not want to buy that at this point if it got there unless you did some sort of like spike down and then it like squeezed back through. But I would not bid that outright at all. That said, oil stocks are holding up pretty well. XLE now basically all but confirming a higher low here. So this is why I like charts too because even though you trade through these these wedge patterns, sometimes the trend lines still respect and uh it's respecting right now. So higher low there and uh yeah, it's it's all but it's all but achieved a higher high. We got the XOP. Same thing. It's actually going to be able to looks like it's going to hold the 200 daily uh by the end of the week. And this weekly pattern here, let me get rid of all these lines. Just get rid of this um to clean it up. Like it's not a bad bull pattern. It's chewing through all this supply here that were trapped buyers. If it can push through these moving averages, it's got a chance to to really repair. And what the other one that impresses me too is OIH. It's not going to get that weekly close above 260. But it's s it's pretty close and uh it's doing the same thing. Now if it gets rejected here you know it gets rejected but it has outperformed a little bit lately. So energy stocks again remember they they're heavily correlated to the price of oil but not always. Um again with the dollar talked about TLT talked about these this kind of I don't want to say pair trade but you know this sort of long bonds you know short dollar long gold type deal long stocks the dollar a very tight range here by the way but the the pressure is to the downside and again I have to think that it's probably going to try and spike down on the Fed and um we'll see there there could be a squeeze here if if Um, too many shorts get in this. I know the chart's weak. There's nothing really good for it, but this just hold this whole setup here just really to me like in stocks and TLT and gold really reeks of a buy the rumor, sell the news setup. So, be careful with dollar here. I'm not playing it personally, but those are my thoughts. But anyway, gold here, uh, kind of a sideways week. So, it had a little pop Monday and then it's just kind of flagging right now. It did have a little reversal on Tuesday. A little uptick in volume there. So, just be aware of that. That said, the miners, look at this GDX, new all-time highs. You guys have been waiting a long time for this, haven't you? So, new all-time highs there. SIL, uh, we talked about the monthly breakout about 55 and that's continuing up here right now. So, that is a, you know, that's a positive for the the spot metal, right, when the miners are leading. That said, I'm just going to be, you know, just going to tell you to be cautious, right? We're we are parabolic now. We're parabolic. Uh, you know, like if we look at a GDX just for instance, like, you know, RSI here, it's really hot. Um, not that that necessarily means anything. It can go more overbought, but it's hot. And again, you're going to the Fed. You know, this was at $50 a month ago. It's at 70 now. Um, you know, like first Majestic Silver was at, you know, back in May it was at 550. It's at 1050. Uh, there's plenty of other, you know, instances of this. I mean, even GDXJ it's $50 to tonight. It's up almost 100%, you know, in less than a year where, you know, and even just a month ago 65, right? They're vertical here and we're going into an announcement, a Fed announcement of rate cut that everybody knows about. So you're not gaining any alpha by buying up here. That said, we might see a little bit more squeezing here in silver LBMA. Now, uh lease rate lease rates have spiked again. And um these types of things can cause wild moves, especially I've seen them before uh in silver. But again, just be aware like we are up a lot here. That said, we're at we touched $43 uh last night in the overnight. The last time we were at $43 was right before the high in April. Like literally like days before the high. But what is different this time? This is the positive. You were already parabolic for like almost like nine months by the time it got to 43 last time. It's just broken out recently, right? So you had a nice base here. Then you had another kind of base, right? Look at the weekly. That's nice. So, it's much healthier this time, but it is still up a lot into that. So, just keep that in mind. I just don't want anybody chasing into a known volatility event. Uh, platinum here still holding up. Um, yeah, up $8 and yeah, as long as it can hold 14, it's fine. Careful of a lower high though. Um, palladium nice move. It got above our levels we talked about 1,200. It shot right through that, but this may have a in fact bet you there's a 618. Yep. Look at that. See, you can just eyeball it sometimes. Right into a 618. So, that may need to stall out a little bit. And then copper is uh continuing to be uneventful here. Um, but it did get back above 463, but nothing there. It's on the quiet side still. Lastly, we got Bitcoin and E uh moving right now. Actually, Ethereum finally finally starting to curl up here. I mean, this took a long time, but it finally started and um yeah, you know, good pop. So, we'll see that bull inside bar can play out. Now, I'm trying to get this set up for you. Uh 4670 is your next level. That's a 618. And it also coincides over so we can see it easier. See how it coincides with this prior breakdown and then these pivots here. So that's your next big I mean it basically yeah it's basically there now. So but either way you get the you get the idea. So maybe a little bit of a an area to stall out, but nice uh rebound finally. And uh Bitcoin. Um you know, holding up well. I think last week we were see this was Monday. Yeah, last week it was a little soft. Remember going to the weekend, but it uh it firmed up nicely this week. 116 and a half is still uh resistance here, which maybe kind of coincides with that that level I just showed you on Ethereum. So anyway, market's holding up right now. Um, got a little bit of time to the close into the afternoon, but you know, we're just sitting beneath 6,600 and, you know, maybe they make a run at at the end of the day. I don't think it really matters at this point. Um, the volatility will likely die down Monday and Tuesday as we get ready for the Fed, but you know, just be careful here. Um, a lot of euphoria going on. A lot of wild moves and a lot of things you see, um, just wacky market wackiness here. things that you see close to a high typically and um again just this you know you're going into a known volatility event everything is known that what the Fed is going to do as far as policy so just be aware of that heading into it anyways guys I'll wrap it up here again you guys take care don't forget to come find Jason on Patreon come find me at carnivorrades.com I'll see you guys all next