Uranium: Explicitly bullish long-term on uranium miners, with the current month-long consolidation seen as near its end and a dip-buying setup via options on URA.
URA (ETF): Preference for capital-efficient, defined-risk positioning using deep-in-the-money vertical call spreads to mitigate high implied volatility and still capture upside.
AI: The AI trade is a key market driver; risk of an AI unwind could temporarily weigh on uranium miners despite nuclear’s structural tailwinds.
Nvidia (NVDA): Upcoming earnings are pivotal; continued upside could fuel broader market highs, while a fade could cement a topping formation and stall momentum.
Crude Oil: Strategy is “lower first, then higher,” with plans to build longs around seasonal lows into February; watch for a shift to structural contango that could shake out longs.
Energy Stocks: Notable divergence as energy equities rally despite weak crude; sustainability of this trend is a key watch item.
Gold: Bullish bias with a strong rally off lows; potential for new highs if overbought conditions persist, but a deeper consolidation into December remains possible and buyable.
US Treasuries: Expectation for yields to pivot near 4% or drift lower if data shows slowing, supporting bond strength; caution advised on near-term “dirty data” overreactions.
Transcript
This is Macrovoices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, [music] high- netw worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors. Macrovoices [music] is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is. Bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Szna. Eric, it was great to have Mike back on the show. Now, listeners, you're going to find the download link for the postgame trade of the week in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, that means you have not yet registered at macrovoices.com. Just go to our homepage, macrovoices.com, and click on the red button over Mike's picture saying looking for the downloads. Patrick, as you know, I'm super bullish on uranium miners long-term, but we've been in a consolidation for the last few weeks, and I think it may be nearing its end. We've gone from extreme overbought to oversold on both RSI and slow stochastics. The last consolidation in URRA ran from July 24th to August 20th, or just under one calendar month. Then we saw a whopping 70% rally over the next 6 weeks. The present consolidation began on October 15th and is now just a hair under one month old. In other words, if we use the duration of the prior consolidation as a benchmark, it's about time for the bottom to be put in on URA and the start of the next big rally. But hold on, we're already at historically elevated levels on these stocks. So going outright long URRA with new money or even adding to existing positions still carries considerable risk, making an options play seem more appealing to me. What would you recommend, Patrick, to play the possibility that uranium is close to putting in a short-term bottom here? And would you recommend outright shares in URRA or call options on URA or an outright long hedged by protective puts or something else? Eric, your uranium idea is at a technically interesting moment, but expressing it with options comes with some real complexities. As you can see on page two of the chart deck, the implied volatility of URRA has doubled from roughly 30% to 60% over the last few months. And when V does that, traditional long gamma expressions like buying calls outright becomes far less attractive. the carry cost goes up, data decay steepens, break evens move farther away, and you end up paying significantly more premium for the same directional exposure. On the other hand, simply stepping in and buying the stock has its own challenges. URA is volatile enough that any reasonable stop can get clipped by any single ugly daily move. So, in this environment, I'd rather structure the trade more intelligently. For me, that means using the in the money vertical call spread, which dramatically reduces the Vega load while still giving you the directional exposure you want. Using a deep in the money call as a long leg effectively creates a synthetic long forward, high delta, low Vega, and minimal exttrinsic value. When you pair that with a short out of the money call, the structure behaves like a capital efficient defined risk long position with the upside capped at the top strike. But here's the underappreciated part. You also get the downside convexity relative to holding the stock outright. If URRA sells off sharply back towards the at the money region, that deep in the money call does not lose value one for one like the delta 1 stock position. The option sheds delta as it approaches the strike and the remaining time value cushions the loss. Equity doesn't do that for you. Now the URRA is trading around 4750. The structure I'm looking at is the January 202640 by60 bull call spread for an $8 debit. And importantly, it's important to observe that roughly $7.5 of that is intrinsic value. So functionally you should think of it as a capital efficient equity stake rather than a speculative options bet. Now on the upside if the trade is working and uranium continues to trend you'll have the flexibility to exercise into the equity and carry the position longer term. So in short, you're getting most of the stock-like upside with defined risk and a nonlinear reduction of your losses if we get a fast correction from here. Patrick, every Monday at Big Picture Trading, your webinar explains how retail investors can put on our most recent trade of the week. For those listeners that want to explore how to put on these trades in greater detail, don't miss out on a 14-day free trial at bigpicturetrading.com. Now, let's dive into the postgame chart deck. >> All right, Eric, let's get into these equities. What are you thinking of the markets here, >> Patrick? We've already seen a brisk rally over the last few sessions on rumors of a government reopening. So, this is a perfect setup for the classic sell the news reaction. So, a pause or dip here is definitely possible. But that said, I think the major trend is still up and that new all-time highs are likely in coming weeks. I'd like to add a word of caution also about government supplied data releases. The market has been super eager for resumption of official data releases and analysts are chomping at the bit waiting to see what those first official data reports are going to show us as the government reopens. I think those analysts are badly misguided and just asking for trouble as they usually are. The only sensible way to interpret the current situation is that the government has been shut down for 43 days now. That's the longest political stunt shutdown in US history. And that means everything is a mess. Returning government employees will be picking up the pieces and trying to sort out how to resume data reporting. This is a perfect setup for several weeks of dirty data. is some essential data that normally goes as the input to this or that report ends up being omitted because the source data wasn't available except they didn't put that in the footnotes because they were scrambling to get back to work. Yada you get the idea. The only sane move here is to fade, ignore, and just not pay attention to all government data for a few weeks. Write it off as probably wrong and ignore it until the system stabilizes a few weeks down the road. But I predict institutional finance will predictably do the exact opposite. They'll react dramatically to new data that they should be ignoring if they had their wits about them, which they seldom do. So my expectation is for several big overreactions in markets to data releases that should have been ignored, frankly, because the data wasn't yet reliable. From a trading perspective, my inclination is to fade those big moves if they happen, regardless of their direction. Eric, you're spot on with the economic data observations. There's a few things that we want to touch on here. Technically, we're trading near 52- week highs. The question that in is on my mind is, are we seeing a bigger topping formation developing as we continue to see market breath deteriorating and the overall momentum of the market stalling? and we should have a quieter week from volatility from gamma pinning that could occur from the November option expiration. But I think the real momentum shift can come on Nvidia's earnings next week. The entire AI bubble has been driving almost all this market momentum. And I think that if in order for us to see 7,000 to 7500 on the S&P, it would have to come on new found momentum on Nvidia going higher. If we see that the uh energy is exhausted and Nvidia fades off of its earnings, uh that could really stall out the market and start to solidify this bigger topping formation that could see a very challenging period going into December. A lot of this will hinge on that. We'll know by next week's episode. So, let's see how this plays out. All right, Eric, what are your thoughts here on the dollar? Well, the Dixie is still flirting with a 100, but it still hasn't broken out. at least not yet. With the government reopening now apparently uh completely signed off, although who knows, it's only a few hours old as we're recording here. Uh assuming that the government reopening is really happening, I would expect turbulence for a short period before a clear trend emerges. So, let's give this another week or two before we decide what's really next and what what the next leg is going to bring for the dollar. Well, the US dollar index uh remains decisively above the 50-day moving average, now spending well over a month uh in bull trend. Now, we've had a oneweek consolidation, but that's held by almost all Fibonacci zones and still well above its summer trade range. And so, at this stage, uh seeing whether the bulls buy the dip at this 99 level is going to be critical. uh if they do, we could still see the US dollar dart higher, which would be a huge market disruptor on an intermarket basis as the reflation trade has been the big trade that's been working all year backed by this US dollar weakness. So, will we get that uh upside breakout is definitely the thing to watch here. Now, Eric, let's touch on crude. Once again, WTI is selling off as President Trump reiterated his call for $2 gas prices as his target. It's pretty clear to me that President Trump is beginning to work towards setting the stage for midterm elections and he's trying to take the most popular things like gas prices and bring them into the spotlight. I agree with many of our guests that the next big move in oil is likely to be up, but I'm not in any rush to buy. February is the seasonality low in the crude oil market and for now my plan is to wait till then to start building a long position hopefully with even better location perhaps down in you know the low50s or high 40s before this is over. Meanwhile backwardation at the front of the WTI curve is almost completely gone and a phase transition to structural contango appears imminent if the flat price weakness continues. Now, if that structural contango transition is confirmed, it will shake out a lot of longs in the market, further supporting my lower first, then higher outlook for oil prices. Well, Eric, crude oil remains in its primary downtrend. It failed at its Fibonacci zones and the 50-day moving average. So, right now, we certainly have not seen a transition to a bull move. Now, any breakout above $62 could set in a short squeeze on the upside, but that just simply has not begun to materialize at all. But what's an interesting divergence is the fact that energy stocks pretty much right across the board have started to rally. Many of them are well above their 50-day moving averages and have been accumulated in this um recent period of crude oil weakness. Not sure what to initially make of that. So, it's interesting the fact that traditionally energy stocks that correlate with the movement of oil prices have really started to diverge. I'm curious whether or not that trend can continue here in the weeks to come. All right, Eric, let's talk gold. Well, I said last week that I saw several technical indications that an upside reversal in gold was likely, and that's pretty clearly been proven out with the $300 rally off the lows. But now the overstoold stochastics are back to flirting with overbought again. Now in the last big rally that we had up to new all-time highs, gold futures extended their overbought stochastic signal into extreme overbought and then sustained that extreme overbought plateau for several weeks. That's what brought us to the $4,400 high. If that happens again, we could be on the way to new all-time highs as I described last week. So maybe the big move is already on, but we're at a make or break point here. The stochastics are back to overbought from oversold last week. So another wave down is equally possible that could bring a new lower low. So it's still too early to call this decisively. But for now, my bullish thesis appears to be playing out. And even if it proves wrong and we see new lows below 3900, I'll still be buying that dip. There's no doubt in my mind that the gold bull market is still on. The question is only how long the current consolidation lasts and how deep of a correction we see before the bull market resumes in earnest. Eric, the gold rally over the last four days has been pretty impressive. It's just beat the uh 4200 fib zone which is uh really demonstrating relative strength on this. The question here is, is this just going to retest its previous highs in a longer consolidation or has the next bull phase already begun? I want to highlight that there's a lot of reasons to be structurally bullish gold in the long term. If this correction is over, this would have been the shortest correction of the last uh two years. And typically, they've lasted anywhere from 2 months to even four months. This is where I remain longerterm bullish, but I still really want to see whether or not resistance comes in here and whether this still develops into a deeper consolidation into uh December. Overall, uh the price action is quite positive and uh we'll be watching what it does as it trades up towards its previous highs here. All right, Eric, let's touch on uranium. As I mentioned in the introduction to the trade of the week, the technicals suggest to me that the month-old consolidation in uranium miners is probably coming to its end. And I'm buying this dip in the form of 55 strike calls on URRA. Energy Secretary Chris Wright's pledge that he wants to build dozens more nuclear reactors before he leaves office. President Trump's pledge to lend $80 billion to Westinghouse to build new reactors. All the news flow is just incredibly positive, incredibly bullish. The big risk here is an unwind of the AI trade because frankly most people haven't even figured out the structural deficit in uranium supply. Most I think this is entirely my speculative and subjective opinion, but I think most of the strength we've seen since the April lows in uh in uranium miners has been attributable to AI people. People that that are excited about AI. They know that nuclear is needed to support the AI story. Now, ironically, the most likely reason for an unwind of the AI trade would be the realization, and it's a correct realization to be sure, that there won't be sufficient energy to fulfill the present market expectations for AI. So, in theory, that ought to be very nuclear bullish. If the problem is there's not enough energy and we need more energy, obviously that has to be bullish. But markets don't work that way. If the AI trade unwinds, then all the people who bought uranium because they were excited about AI are going to unwind those trades as they unwind their other AI trades. And that's going to be bearish at least in the short term for uranium. Well, Eric, I just want to touch here on uh the charts of the uranium uh equities and like you were observing, they've done this retracement and they are a little bit short-term oversold. What's particularly interesting to me is is that this entire pullback has hit the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement, which is a typical place to see the initial support lines. What I like here is that the 50-day moving average is right there to uh to actually depict the next trend. If we see the URRA is able to get back above that $52 area and and start building some momentum back on the highs, that will start to confirm that this short-term buy and dip has materialized and is confirmed. Then we'll be looking to see what what it does up along previous highs. Now, alternatively, if this is proven to still being early, what you should see is a lot of stalling price action and failed rallies that leads to a sustained period of trading below the 50-day moving average. Now, I'm not necessarily predicting that, but rather just observing that u the bulls really need to punch this through that 50-day moving average and build some momentum to really solidify this short-term low. Patrick, before we wrap up this week's show, let's hit the 10-year Treasury note chart. Now, finally, Eric, on that 10-year Treasury yield, uh while we certainly have seen a uh bounce higher in yields in that post FOMC meeting, overall the pattern of lower highs and lower lows is still quite intact. And if we see that any of that economic data that starts getting released here is showing the economy slowing, it may continue to allow yields to remain pivoting along this 4% level and potentially even break below. Uh so we're still watching for that bond strength and yield weakness to persist, but a lot of it will now hinge on uh the first reactions to some of these economic data and points that are going to start being released. Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of BigPictur Trading. The details are on the last pages of the slide deck, or just go to bigpicturetrading.com. That concludes this edition of Macrovoices. [music] Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds in finance and macroeconomics. Macrovoices [music] is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturetrading.com, [music] the internet's premier source of online education for traders. Please visit bigpicturetrading.com [music] for more information. Please register your free account at macrovoices.com. 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Trade of The Week – MacroVoices #506
Summary
Transcript
This is Macrovoices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, [music] high- netw worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors. Macrovoices [music] is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is. Bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Szna. Eric, it was great to have Mike back on the show. Now, listeners, you're going to find the download link for the postgame trade of the week in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, that means you have not yet registered at macrovoices.com. Just go to our homepage, macrovoices.com, and click on the red button over Mike's picture saying looking for the downloads. Patrick, as you know, I'm super bullish on uranium miners long-term, but we've been in a consolidation for the last few weeks, and I think it may be nearing its end. We've gone from extreme overbought to oversold on both RSI and slow stochastics. The last consolidation in URRA ran from July 24th to August 20th, or just under one calendar month. Then we saw a whopping 70% rally over the next 6 weeks. The present consolidation began on October 15th and is now just a hair under one month old. In other words, if we use the duration of the prior consolidation as a benchmark, it's about time for the bottom to be put in on URA and the start of the next big rally. But hold on, we're already at historically elevated levels on these stocks. So going outright long URRA with new money or even adding to existing positions still carries considerable risk, making an options play seem more appealing to me. What would you recommend, Patrick, to play the possibility that uranium is close to putting in a short-term bottom here? And would you recommend outright shares in URRA or call options on URA or an outright long hedged by protective puts or something else? Eric, your uranium idea is at a technically interesting moment, but expressing it with options comes with some real complexities. As you can see on page two of the chart deck, the implied volatility of URRA has doubled from roughly 30% to 60% over the last few months. And when V does that, traditional long gamma expressions like buying calls outright becomes far less attractive. the carry cost goes up, data decay steepens, break evens move farther away, and you end up paying significantly more premium for the same directional exposure. On the other hand, simply stepping in and buying the stock has its own challenges. URA is volatile enough that any reasonable stop can get clipped by any single ugly daily move. So, in this environment, I'd rather structure the trade more intelligently. For me, that means using the in the money vertical call spread, which dramatically reduces the Vega load while still giving you the directional exposure you want. Using a deep in the money call as a long leg effectively creates a synthetic long forward, high delta, low Vega, and minimal exttrinsic value. When you pair that with a short out of the money call, the structure behaves like a capital efficient defined risk long position with the upside capped at the top strike. But here's the underappreciated part. You also get the downside convexity relative to holding the stock outright. If URRA sells off sharply back towards the at the money region, that deep in the money call does not lose value one for one like the delta 1 stock position. The option sheds delta as it approaches the strike and the remaining time value cushions the loss. Equity doesn't do that for you. Now the URRA is trading around 4750. The structure I'm looking at is the January 202640 by60 bull call spread for an $8 debit. And importantly, it's important to observe that roughly $7.5 of that is intrinsic value. So functionally you should think of it as a capital efficient equity stake rather than a speculative options bet. Now on the upside if the trade is working and uranium continues to trend you'll have the flexibility to exercise into the equity and carry the position longer term. So in short, you're getting most of the stock-like upside with defined risk and a nonlinear reduction of your losses if we get a fast correction from here. Patrick, every Monday at Big Picture Trading, your webinar explains how retail investors can put on our most recent trade of the week. For those listeners that want to explore how to put on these trades in greater detail, don't miss out on a 14-day free trial at bigpicturetrading.com. Now, let's dive into the postgame chart deck. >> All right, Eric, let's get into these equities. What are you thinking of the markets here, >> Patrick? We've already seen a brisk rally over the last few sessions on rumors of a government reopening. So, this is a perfect setup for the classic sell the news reaction. So, a pause or dip here is definitely possible. But that said, I think the major trend is still up and that new all-time highs are likely in coming weeks. I'd like to add a word of caution also about government supplied data releases. The market has been super eager for resumption of official data releases and analysts are chomping at the bit waiting to see what those first official data reports are going to show us as the government reopens. I think those analysts are badly misguided and just asking for trouble as they usually are. The only sensible way to interpret the current situation is that the government has been shut down for 43 days now. That's the longest political stunt shutdown in US history. And that means everything is a mess. Returning government employees will be picking up the pieces and trying to sort out how to resume data reporting. This is a perfect setup for several weeks of dirty data. is some essential data that normally goes as the input to this or that report ends up being omitted because the source data wasn't available except they didn't put that in the footnotes because they were scrambling to get back to work. Yada you get the idea. The only sane move here is to fade, ignore, and just not pay attention to all government data for a few weeks. Write it off as probably wrong and ignore it until the system stabilizes a few weeks down the road. But I predict institutional finance will predictably do the exact opposite. They'll react dramatically to new data that they should be ignoring if they had their wits about them, which they seldom do. So my expectation is for several big overreactions in markets to data releases that should have been ignored, frankly, because the data wasn't yet reliable. From a trading perspective, my inclination is to fade those big moves if they happen, regardless of their direction. Eric, you're spot on with the economic data observations. There's a few things that we want to touch on here. Technically, we're trading near 52- week highs. The question that in is on my mind is, are we seeing a bigger topping formation developing as we continue to see market breath deteriorating and the overall momentum of the market stalling? and we should have a quieter week from volatility from gamma pinning that could occur from the November option expiration. But I think the real momentum shift can come on Nvidia's earnings next week. The entire AI bubble has been driving almost all this market momentum. And I think that if in order for us to see 7,000 to 7500 on the S&P, it would have to come on new found momentum on Nvidia going higher. If we see that the uh energy is exhausted and Nvidia fades off of its earnings, uh that could really stall out the market and start to solidify this bigger topping formation that could see a very challenging period going into December. A lot of this will hinge on that. We'll know by next week's episode. So, let's see how this plays out. All right, Eric, what are your thoughts here on the dollar? Well, the Dixie is still flirting with a 100, but it still hasn't broken out. at least not yet. With the government reopening now apparently uh completely signed off, although who knows, it's only a few hours old as we're recording here. Uh assuming that the government reopening is really happening, I would expect turbulence for a short period before a clear trend emerges. So, let's give this another week or two before we decide what's really next and what what the next leg is going to bring for the dollar. Well, the US dollar index uh remains decisively above the 50-day moving average, now spending well over a month uh in bull trend. Now, we've had a oneweek consolidation, but that's held by almost all Fibonacci zones and still well above its summer trade range. And so, at this stage, uh seeing whether the bulls buy the dip at this 99 level is going to be critical. uh if they do, we could still see the US dollar dart higher, which would be a huge market disruptor on an intermarket basis as the reflation trade has been the big trade that's been working all year backed by this US dollar weakness. So, will we get that uh upside breakout is definitely the thing to watch here. Now, Eric, let's touch on crude. Once again, WTI is selling off as President Trump reiterated his call for $2 gas prices as his target. It's pretty clear to me that President Trump is beginning to work towards setting the stage for midterm elections and he's trying to take the most popular things like gas prices and bring them into the spotlight. I agree with many of our guests that the next big move in oil is likely to be up, but I'm not in any rush to buy. February is the seasonality low in the crude oil market and for now my plan is to wait till then to start building a long position hopefully with even better location perhaps down in you know the low50s or high 40s before this is over. Meanwhile backwardation at the front of the WTI curve is almost completely gone and a phase transition to structural contango appears imminent if the flat price weakness continues. Now, if that structural contango transition is confirmed, it will shake out a lot of longs in the market, further supporting my lower first, then higher outlook for oil prices. Well, Eric, crude oil remains in its primary downtrend. It failed at its Fibonacci zones and the 50-day moving average. So, right now, we certainly have not seen a transition to a bull move. Now, any breakout above $62 could set in a short squeeze on the upside, but that just simply has not begun to materialize at all. But what's an interesting divergence is the fact that energy stocks pretty much right across the board have started to rally. Many of them are well above their 50-day moving averages and have been accumulated in this um recent period of crude oil weakness. Not sure what to initially make of that. So, it's interesting the fact that traditionally energy stocks that correlate with the movement of oil prices have really started to diverge. I'm curious whether or not that trend can continue here in the weeks to come. All right, Eric, let's talk gold. Well, I said last week that I saw several technical indications that an upside reversal in gold was likely, and that's pretty clearly been proven out with the $300 rally off the lows. But now the overstoold stochastics are back to flirting with overbought again. Now in the last big rally that we had up to new all-time highs, gold futures extended their overbought stochastic signal into extreme overbought and then sustained that extreme overbought plateau for several weeks. That's what brought us to the $4,400 high. If that happens again, we could be on the way to new all-time highs as I described last week. So maybe the big move is already on, but we're at a make or break point here. The stochastics are back to overbought from oversold last week. So another wave down is equally possible that could bring a new lower low. So it's still too early to call this decisively. But for now, my bullish thesis appears to be playing out. And even if it proves wrong and we see new lows below 3900, I'll still be buying that dip. There's no doubt in my mind that the gold bull market is still on. The question is only how long the current consolidation lasts and how deep of a correction we see before the bull market resumes in earnest. Eric, the gold rally over the last four days has been pretty impressive. It's just beat the uh 4200 fib zone which is uh really demonstrating relative strength on this. The question here is, is this just going to retest its previous highs in a longer consolidation or has the next bull phase already begun? I want to highlight that there's a lot of reasons to be structurally bullish gold in the long term. If this correction is over, this would have been the shortest correction of the last uh two years. And typically, they've lasted anywhere from 2 months to even four months. This is where I remain longerterm bullish, but I still really want to see whether or not resistance comes in here and whether this still develops into a deeper consolidation into uh December. Overall, uh the price action is quite positive and uh we'll be watching what it does as it trades up towards its previous highs here. All right, Eric, let's touch on uranium. As I mentioned in the introduction to the trade of the week, the technicals suggest to me that the month-old consolidation in uranium miners is probably coming to its end. And I'm buying this dip in the form of 55 strike calls on URRA. Energy Secretary Chris Wright's pledge that he wants to build dozens more nuclear reactors before he leaves office. President Trump's pledge to lend $80 billion to Westinghouse to build new reactors. All the news flow is just incredibly positive, incredibly bullish. The big risk here is an unwind of the AI trade because frankly most people haven't even figured out the structural deficit in uranium supply. Most I think this is entirely my speculative and subjective opinion, but I think most of the strength we've seen since the April lows in uh in uranium miners has been attributable to AI people. People that that are excited about AI. They know that nuclear is needed to support the AI story. Now, ironically, the most likely reason for an unwind of the AI trade would be the realization, and it's a correct realization to be sure, that there won't be sufficient energy to fulfill the present market expectations for AI. So, in theory, that ought to be very nuclear bullish. If the problem is there's not enough energy and we need more energy, obviously that has to be bullish. But markets don't work that way. If the AI trade unwinds, then all the people who bought uranium because they were excited about AI are going to unwind those trades as they unwind their other AI trades. And that's going to be bearish at least in the short term for uranium. Well, Eric, I just want to touch here on uh the charts of the uranium uh equities and like you were observing, they've done this retracement and they are a little bit short-term oversold. What's particularly interesting to me is is that this entire pullback has hit the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement, which is a typical place to see the initial support lines. What I like here is that the 50-day moving average is right there to uh to actually depict the next trend. If we see the URRA is able to get back above that $52 area and and start building some momentum back on the highs, that will start to confirm that this short-term buy and dip has materialized and is confirmed. Then we'll be looking to see what what it does up along previous highs. Now, alternatively, if this is proven to still being early, what you should see is a lot of stalling price action and failed rallies that leads to a sustained period of trading below the 50-day moving average. Now, I'm not necessarily predicting that, but rather just observing that u the bulls really need to punch this through that 50-day moving average and build some momentum to really solidify this short-term low. Patrick, before we wrap up this week's show, let's hit the 10-year Treasury note chart. Now, finally, Eric, on that 10-year Treasury yield, uh while we certainly have seen a uh bounce higher in yields in that post FOMC meeting, overall the pattern of lower highs and lower lows is still quite intact. And if we see that any of that economic data that starts getting released here is showing the economy slowing, it may continue to allow yields to remain pivoting along this 4% level and potentially even break below. Uh so we're still watching for that bond strength and yield weakness to persist, but a lot of it will now hinge on uh the first reactions to some of these economic data and points that are going to start being released. Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of BigPictur Trading. The details are on the last pages of the slide deck, or just go to bigpicturetrading.com. That concludes this edition of Macrovoices. [music] Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds in finance and macroeconomics. Macrovoices [music] is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturetrading.com, [music] the internet's premier source of online education for traders. Please visit bigpicturetrading.com [music] for more information. Please register your free account at macrovoices.com. 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