Fed Easing: The featured trade pitches a bullish view on future rate cuts via a December 2027 SOFR bull call spread, arguing weakening labor data and demand destruction could force a more aggressive easing path.
Semiconductors: Hosts flag extreme overbought conditions and option-flow-driven upside, recommending hedges like ratio put spreads to guard against a blowoff top and mean reversion.
Crude Oil: The Hormuz crisis and China’s role are seen as decisive for oil’s next move, with technicals supportive of a push toward $100 and potential higher if inventories keep drawing.
Gold: Precious metals show signs of bottoming, but near-term remains range-bound; a crisis resolution could trigger a strong rally, potentially a second-half story.
Uranium/Nuclear Energy: Long-term bullish thesis remains intact despite miners’ recent underperformance; near-term caution with a potential air pocket before accumulation resumes.
Copper: Bullish breakout to all-time highs with buyable pullbacks; notable lag in related equities despite strong commodity momentum.
US Dollar: Dollar could firm back toward 100 on oil and yield stress, though directional conviction is mixed and event-driven risk from China/Iran is high.
Bond Yields: 10-year yields are breaking higher toward prior peaks on inflation fears from oil, keeping the bond market trend bearish near-term with limited catalysts for reversal.
Transcript
Now back to your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Serzna. >> Eric, it was great to have an update from Rory. Now listeners, you're going to find the download link for this week's trade of the week in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, it means you have not yet registered at macrovoices.com. go to our homepage and look for that red button over Mike Green's picture saying looking for the download. Patrick, for this week's trade of the week, Mike Green argued that while markets continue to levitate on passive and synthetic flows, the energy shock could eventually lead to slower growth and a sharp reversal in the Fed rate path. So, how do you position for that shift in interest rate expectations? Now, Mike Green's argument was that while markets continue to levitate on passive and systematic flows, the underlying economy may be weakening much faster than the headline suggests. Mike specifically highlighted deteriorating labor market conditions, overstated payroll data, and the risk that the energy shock ultimately translate into demand destruction rather than persistent inflation. As a result, he believes markets may be underpricing the probability of a much more aggressive Fed easing cycle later this year and into 2027. So rather than chasing the short-term inflation impulse from higher energy prices, this trade is about positioning for a reversal in the future policy rate path through longerdated sulfur futures. Now, what makes this setup interesting is that the December 2027 sofur futures contract has been pushed down to around 96 and a quarter, back near one-year lows and levels we haven't seen since early 2025. Sulfur futures now imply the market is pricing roughly a 375 forward sulfur rate. In other words, the market has effectively pulled much of the easing out of the curve and is even flirting with the possibility of more restrictive Fed path next year. The trade here is to fade that repricing, consistent with Mike Green's view that weaker labor data, demand destruction, and slowing growth could force the market to price a more aggressive Fed easing cycle. From this trade construction standpoint, rather than buying sulfur future outright, I wanted to use the bull call spread on the December 2027 contract, specifically using the December 2026 options with roughly 211 days till its expiration. The structure buys the 9650 call for around 19 cents and sells the 97 call for around 8 cents, creating a 50 cent wide call spread for a net debit of roughly 11. The payoff profile is attractive. Max risk is 11 debit while the max profit is 39. If the December 2027 sofur contract settles at or above 97, that creates roughly a three and a half to one riskreward profile with the break even being at 9661. The objective is simple. If the market merely reprices back towards the highs seen earlier this year before the conflictdriven Fed path reset, the spread can capture the reversal with defined downside risk. Patrick, every Monday at Big Picture Trading, your webinar explains how retail investors can put on our most recent trade of the week. For those listeners that want to explore how to put on these trades in greater detail, don't miss out on a 14-day free trial at bigpicturetrading.com. Now, let's dive into the postgame chart deck. All right, Eric, let's dive into these equity markets. Well, Patrick, the trend is clearly up and it's strong. But in addition to the cautions Mike Green expressed in the feature interview, Namura's Charlie McEligate was unusually outspoken in recommending a ratio put spread to hedge against a blowoff top in the semiconductor stocks, which have been the primary thing levitating this market. I personally still have put spread hedges in place on the S&P 500. Now, I've come to terms with the entirely likely outcome that those put spreads are going to expire worthless given the current uptrend. But frankly, I'm still happy to have insurance in place. The market continues to shrug off an economic shock from the Hormuz crisis that I continue to believe is both certain and imminent. But I'm also starting to come around to Louis Gav's view expressed last week that the countries most adversely affected by the Hormuz crisis are not the ones that drive stock index prices. And Mike Green's view that the machine isn't programmed to discount such risks. So I'm still sticking to my guns on the Hormuz crisis leading to a pretty darn significant global energy shock. question is whether or not that's going to transmit back to the stock market or if we just keep on rallying and levitating from here on the AI craze. Well, Eric, I want to go a little bit under the hood of the S&P 500 and actually look at the flows driven move that happened. First of all, we're approaching uh 7500, which is a weekly chart measured move target on the upside of the market. This is happening when we seen some of the most overbought conditions on semiconductors that we have actually ever seen. This entire move higher has had a huge bullish tailwind from option flows and obvious dealer hedging that has to occur uh which has accelerated that upside. We're now coming to a pretty important opex and we're going to certainly see with these elevated implied volatilities whether mean reversion is the name of the game for semiconductors and whether or not that puts in a swing high here on the S&P 500. Now, I'm not necessarily bearish thinking that there's a huge decline coming in the market, but we are long overdue for a healthy pullback. And if you just put it into the context of a traditional retracement, one that approaches its previous moving averages, what were previous highs of the stock market become support, we could easily see a a 5 to 7% market correction. That would be a very healthy reset of a primary bull market. The point here is that while we're looking for a pullback here is, we're not necessarily trying to imply that uh that's uh going to lead to a big bare market decline where the semiconductors here are so overbought that at some stage here mean reversion driven by a correction in semis would be a very natural thing to occur. All right, Eric, let's move on to the dollar. What are your thoughts here? The very short-term Dixie trend has turned up in the last few days, but we're still trading well below the unfilled gap that uh still exists above the market up to 99 spot 39 on the Dixie chart. I predict that the Trump she talks in China in the next couple of days and the possibility of a military reescalation in Iran this coming weekend will be remembered as a pivotal moment in the development of both the Iran crisis and the present Dixie chart. I'm just not sure which way that pivot is going to go, leaving me with no directional view on the market. But I think what happens in China is going to pretty much decide what happens next in most financial markets. For me, Eric, the dollar is all about this intermarket relationship. And as oil presses higher and we see stress in yield markets and certainly concerns that areas like Europe may be more uh directly hit by this closure of the straight and certainly see more economic weakness. at some stage there is room for the dollar to easily trade back to the top of its trade range. I don't want to be um uber bullish on the dollar like we're about to see a huge leg higher, but it wouldn't surprise me here if we saw the dollar work its way back to the 100 handle into that previous overhead resistance. All right, Eric, let's uh dive into the oil markets. Well, once again, I apologize for sounding like a broken record, but I think it all hinges on the outcome of the China negotiations. Frankly, I think China is holding that big handful of cards that President Trump keeps saying the United States is holding. So, if China is the one to somehow step in here and say to Iran, look, we're your biggest customer. We want you to do X, Y, and Z next because we said so, and we're going to make it painful if you don't. I think Iran pretty much has to listen to China. The question is, can President Trump persuade China? Can he make a deal with China that causes them to want to use their influence that way? And I have absolutely no idea what the answer is. Absent a solution from China, I think Trump and Iran are locked in a stalemate situation that could easily prolong the crisis for another month or more. If that happens, it's going to take oil prices much higher and it's potentially going to have a crippling effect on the economy sooner or later. On the other hand, I think China could bring a very prompt end to this crisis if they want to. So, my only prediction is that I do not anticipate a flat, low volume, low volatility trading outcome from here. I think we're going to see a fork in the road pretty quickly here in the next several days. I just don't know which direction it's going to take. >> Well, I want to just look at this purely technically. Obviously, we want to respect the fact that the uh uh geopolitical headlines will drive oil, but overall, each pullback on oil has been held by its 50-day moving average and retracement zones. And so, while we've seen a lot of volatility, there's actually been a primary bull advance that has been very well respected technically. Now, uh, with the straight continuing to be closed and inventories continuing to draw down around the world, there could still be a potential bull impulse. So, we're watching to see whether or not we WTI can clear the uh 100 level legitimately on the upside. A bigger question is when does the stock market and other markets start to care? I think at this point we would need to see a clearing to 52- week highs before it really starts to uh create a new wave of nervousness. At this stage, uh that resistance is still 10 to $15 higher. So, at this moment, while we're looking for oil to to strengthen here back into those highs, uh I don't think there's going to be a huge intermarket reaction unless it really genuinely made a huge breakout. All right, Eric, let's move on here and touch on gold. We're seeing more and more signs that precious metals are ready to begin a recovery. The uh strict opposite of crude oil price action that we had been seeing seems to be abating. We're occasionally seeing both gold and crude oil move up together, at least in the very short term. and the weekly RSI and stochastics are starting to move into oversold territory suggesting that maybe the bottom is already in or is almost in for precious metals. But if there's no resolution from China and the Hormuz situation continues, there's still plenty of room for another leg down in gold as the market digests the oil driven inflation signal. So, I'm not quite ready to sound the all clear yet, but if China resolves the crisis with Iran, then I think the bottom's probably in on gold, and it's time to potentially lever up and expect a big rally from here. I'm just not sure if we're there yet. Well, in my mind here, Eric, we had that blowoff on gold back in January, and we've just been more or less consolidating. And there's a lot of pressure from higher yields and uh dollar dynamics that has just put gold into this uh no man's land purgatory of trading sideways. In the bigger picture, I do think that uh gold is going to bullishly break out, but uh maybe it's going to still be something that's more like a second half of the year story. I wouldn't be surprised if uh we continued the rest of this month in this kind of a meat grinder trade range without uh much resolution. All right, Eric, let's move on to uranium here. >> Well, Patrick, as our regular listeners know, I remain super duper bullish on both nuclear energy and on uranium long term. But frankly, I'm starting to get pretty darn concerned here in the very short term because the uranium miners just plain have not participated in this gigantic rally that we've seen in the broader market or I don't know if I should be even be saying the broader market in the stock indices which are frankly being narrowly driven not broadly driven by semiconductor stocks ever since the March lows. So, you know, if the uranium miners are just holding flat in the face of this massive semiconductor rally, what are they going to do if the semis blow off and retrace to the downside as some observers, including our friend Charlie McGele at Numura, have begun to anticipate? I'm not sure, but I'm bracing for a near-term correction if that happens. I do think it's a buying opportunity because the bullish thesis is as strong as ever for both uranium and nuclear energy. I just have a feeling that we're maybe about to hit an air pocket here uh if the global energy market is upset in the way that I fear it's about to be upset if China doesn't bring an end to this hormuse crisis. Well, Eric, I share your sentiment towards the your bullishness on uranium. The big question for me is when uh is there going to be signs of accumulation like that they have restarted a new bull leg? At this moment, uranium is grinding and uh and we haven't seen yet a flows pivot that has uh really reopened the upside window for another leg higher. Uh at this stage, I don't see a big bare decline coming or anything. So, it's going to be once again just a scenario of consolidation and just watching for when there's technical signs that in fact the flows have pivoted back into the favor of the bulls. Now, Eric, I wanted to just briefly touch on the copper chart on page eight. We had a breakout to all-time new highs on copper. Now, uh is there more room for it to run to seven on the upside? Absolutely. But on the short term, this bull impulse here is going to likely hit some uh overhead resistance. But so long as old pullbacks are contained to, you know, 25 to 50 cent pullbacks and a bot on dip, then I'd be looking for uh that to be continuation patterns to inevitably see copper trade all the way up to the seven handle. It's interesting that many copper names as individual equities have not yet fully started to participate, but uh the copper market remains decisively bullish here. Patrick, before we wrap up this week's podcast, let's hit that 10-year Treasury note chart. Here we have a breakout to multimonth highs on the 10-year yield. Now we haven't yet hit the highs of 2024 or25 which are in that 460 to 475 range but clearly the bond market looks like it wants to press uh to retest those levels driven by the short-term inflation fears driven by higher oil prices. At this stage, the bond market is uh pretty ugly and yields continue to press and I don't see any reason why that has to reverse this week. So, right now, be careful in the bond markets. It's simply uh the trend is not your friend and there's no immediate catalyst for this trend to reverse. Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of BigPictur Trading. The details are on the last pages of the slide deck or just go to bigpicturtrading.com. Patrick, tell them what they can expect to find in this week's research roundup. Well, in this week's research roundup, you're going to find the transcript for today's interview, the trade of the week chart book, which is discussed here in the postgame, including a number of links to articles that we found interesting. You're going to find this link and so much more in this week's research roundup. So, that does it for this week's episode. We appreciate all the feedback and support we get from our listeners and we're always looking for suggestions on how we can make the program even better. Now, for those of our listeners that write or blog about the markets and would like to share that content with our listeners, send us an email at researchroundup@macrovoices.com and we will consider it for our weekly distributions. If you have not already, follow our main account on X at macrovoices for all the most recent updates and releases. You can also follow Eric onx, Eric S. Townson. That's Eric spelled with a K. You can also follow me at Patrick Sesna. On behalf of Eric Townson and myself, thank you for listening and we'll see you all next week. That concludes this edition of Macrovoices. Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds in finance and macroeconomics. Macrovoices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturrading.com, the internet's premier source of online education for traders. Please visit bigpicturetrading.com for more information. Please register your free account at macrovoices.com. Once registered, you'll receive our free weekly research roundup email containing links to supporting documents from our featured guests and the very best free financial content our volunteer research team could find on the internet each week. You'll also gain access to our free listener discussion forums and research library. And the more registered users we have, the more we'll be able to recruit high-profile feature interview guests for future programs. So, please register your free account today at macrovoices.com if you haven't already. You can subscribe to Macrovoices on iTunes to have Macrovoices automatically delivered to your mobile device each week free of charge. You can email questions for the program to mailbag@macrovoices.com and we'll answer your questions on the air from time to time in our mailbag segment. Macrovoices is presented forformational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented on macrovoices should not be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making investment decisions. The views and opinions expressed on Macrovoices are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect those of the show's hosts or sponsors. Macrovoices, its producers, sponsors, and hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Serzna shall not be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on Macrovoices. Macrovoices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturetrading.com and by funding from Fourth Turning Capital Management LLC. For more information, visit macrovoices.com.
Trade of The Week – MacroVoices #532
Summary
Transcript
Now back to your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Serzna. >> Eric, it was great to have an update from Rory. Now listeners, you're going to find the download link for this week's trade of the week in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, it means you have not yet registered at macrovoices.com. go to our homepage and look for that red button over Mike Green's picture saying looking for the download. Patrick, for this week's trade of the week, Mike Green argued that while markets continue to levitate on passive and synthetic flows, the energy shock could eventually lead to slower growth and a sharp reversal in the Fed rate path. So, how do you position for that shift in interest rate expectations? Now, Mike Green's argument was that while markets continue to levitate on passive and systematic flows, the underlying economy may be weakening much faster than the headline suggests. Mike specifically highlighted deteriorating labor market conditions, overstated payroll data, and the risk that the energy shock ultimately translate into demand destruction rather than persistent inflation. As a result, he believes markets may be underpricing the probability of a much more aggressive Fed easing cycle later this year and into 2027. So rather than chasing the short-term inflation impulse from higher energy prices, this trade is about positioning for a reversal in the future policy rate path through longerdated sulfur futures. Now, what makes this setup interesting is that the December 2027 sofur futures contract has been pushed down to around 96 and a quarter, back near one-year lows and levels we haven't seen since early 2025. Sulfur futures now imply the market is pricing roughly a 375 forward sulfur rate. In other words, the market has effectively pulled much of the easing out of the curve and is even flirting with the possibility of more restrictive Fed path next year. The trade here is to fade that repricing, consistent with Mike Green's view that weaker labor data, demand destruction, and slowing growth could force the market to price a more aggressive Fed easing cycle. From this trade construction standpoint, rather than buying sulfur future outright, I wanted to use the bull call spread on the December 2027 contract, specifically using the December 2026 options with roughly 211 days till its expiration. The structure buys the 9650 call for around 19 cents and sells the 97 call for around 8 cents, creating a 50 cent wide call spread for a net debit of roughly 11. The payoff profile is attractive. Max risk is 11 debit while the max profit is 39. If the December 2027 sofur contract settles at or above 97, that creates roughly a three and a half to one riskreward profile with the break even being at 9661. The objective is simple. If the market merely reprices back towards the highs seen earlier this year before the conflictdriven Fed path reset, the spread can capture the reversal with defined downside risk. Patrick, every Monday at Big Picture Trading, your webinar explains how retail investors can put on our most recent trade of the week. For those listeners that want to explore how to put on these trades in greater detail, don't miss out on a 14-day free trial at bigpicturetrading.com. Now, let's dive into the postgame chart deck. All right, Eric, let's dive into these equity markets. Well, Patrick, the trend is clearly up and it's strong. But in addition to the cautions Mike Green expressed in the feature interview, Namura's Charlie McEligate was unusually outspoken in recommending a ratio put spread to hedge against a blowoff top in the semiconductor stocks, which have been the primary thing levitating this market. I personally still have put spread hedges in place on the S&P 500. Now, I've come to terms with the entirely likely outcome that those put spreads are going to expire worthless given the current uptrend. But frankly, I'm still happy to have insurance in place. The market continues to shrug off an economic shock from the Hormuz crisis that I continue to believe is both certain and imminent. But I'm also starting to come around to Louis Gav's view expressed last week that the countries most adversely affected by the Hormuz crisis are not the ones that drive stock index prices. And Mike Green's view that the machine isn't programmed to discount such risks. So I'm still sticking to my guns on the Hormuz crisis leading to a pretty darn significant global energy shock. question is whether or not that's going to transmit back to the stock market or if we just keep on rallying and levitating from here on the AI craze. Well, Eric, I want to go a little bit under the hood of the S&P 500 and actually look at the flows driven move that happened. First of all, we're approaching uh 7500, which is a weekly chart measured move target on the upside of the market. This is happening when we seen some of the most overbought conditions on semiconductors that we have actually ever seen. This entire move higher has had a huge bullish tailwind from option flows and obvious dealer hedging that has to occur uh which has accelerated that upside. We're now coming to a pretty important opex and we're going to certainly see with these elevated implied volatilities whether mean reversion is the name of the game for semiconductors and whether or not that puts in a swing high here on the S&P 500. Now, I'm not necessarily bearish thinking that there's a huge decline coming in the market, but we are long overdue for a healthy pullback. And if you just put it into the context of a traditional retracement, one that approaches its previous moving averages, what were previous highs of the stock market become support, we could easily see a a 5 to 7% market correction. That would be a very healthy reset of a primary bull market. The point here is that while we're looking for a pullback here is, we're not necessarily trying to imply that uh that's uh going to lead to a big bare market decline where the semiconductors here are so overbought that at some stage here mean reversion driven by a correction in semis would be a very natural thing to occur. All right, Eric, let's move on to the dollar. What are your thoughts here? The very short-term Dixie trend has turned up in the last few days, but we're still trading well below the unfilled gap that uh still exists above the market up to 99 spot 39 on the Dixie chart. I predict that the Trump she talks in China in the next couple of days and the possibility of a military reescalation in Iran this coming weekend will be remembered as a pivotal moment in the development of both the Iran crisis and the present Dixie chart. I'm just not sure which way that pivot is going to go, leaving me with no directional view on the market. But I think what happens in China is going to pretty much decide what happens next in most financial markets. For me, Eric, the dollar is all about this intermarket relationship. And as oil presses higher and we see stress in yield markets and certainly concerns that areas like Europe may be more uh directly hit by this closure of the straight and certainly see more economic weakness. at some stage there is room for the dollar to easily trade back to the top of its trade range. I don't want to be um uber bullish on the dollar like we're about to see a huge leg higher, but it wouldn't surprise me here if we saw the dollar work its way back to the 100 handle into that previous overhead resistance. All right, Eric, let's uh dive into the oil markets. Well, once again, I apologize for sounding like a broken record, but I think it all hinges on the outcome of the China negotiations. Frankly, I think China is holding that big handful of cards that President Trump keeps saying the United States is holding. So, if China is the one to somehow step in here and say to Iran, look, we're your biggest customer. We want you to do X, Y, and Z next because we said so, and we're going to make it painful if you don't. I think Iran pretty much has to listen to China. The question is, can President Trump persuade China? Can he make a deal with China that causes them to want to use their influence that way? And I have absolutely no idea what the answer is. Absent a solution from China, I think Trump and Iran are locked in a stalemate situation that could easily prolong the crisis for another month or more. If that happens, it's going to take oil prices much higher and it's potentially going to have a crippling effect on the economy sooner or later. On the other hand, I think China could bring a very prompt end to this crisis if they want to. So, my only prediction is that I do not anticipate a flat, low volume, low volatility trading outcome from here. I think we're going to see a fork in the road pretty quickly here in the next several days. I just don't know which direction it's going to take. >> Well, I want to just look at this purely technically. Obviously, we want to respect the fact that the uh uh geopolitical headlines will drive oil, but overall, each pullback on oil has been held by its 50-day moving average and retracement zones. And so, while we've seen a lot of volatility, there's actually been a primary bull advance that has been very well respected technically. Now, uh, with the straight continuing to be closed and inventories continuing to draw down around the world, there could still be a potential bull impulse. So, we're watching to see whether or not we WTI can clear the uh 100 level legitimately on the upside. A bigger question is when does the stock market and other markets start to care? I think at this point we would need to see a clearing to 52- week highs before it really starts to uh create a new wave of nervousness. At this stage, uh that resistance is still 10 to $15 higher. So, at this moment, while we're looking for oil to to strengthen here back into those highs, uh I don't think there's going to be a huge intermarket reaction unless it really genuinely made a huge breakout. All right, Eric, let's move on here and touch on gold. We're seeing more and more signs that precious metals are ready to begin a recovery. The uh strict opposite of crude oil price action that we had been seeing seems to be abating. We're occasionally seeing both gold and crude oil move up together, at least in the very short term. and the weekly RSI and stochastics are starting to move into oversold territory suggesting that maybe the bottom is already in or is almost in for precious metals. But if there's no resolution from China and the Hormuz situation continues, there's still plenty of room for another leg down in gold as the market digests the oil driven inflation signal. So, I'm not quite ready to sound the all clear yet, but if China resolves the crisis with Iran, then I think the bottom's probably in on gold, and it's time to potentially lever up and expect a big rally from here. I'm just not sure if we're there yet. Well, in my mind here, Eric, we had that blowoff on gold back in January, and we've just been more or less consolidating. And there's a lot of pressure from higher yields and uh dollar dynamics that has just put gold into this uh no man's land purgatory of trading sideways. In the bigger picture, I do think that uh gold is going to bullishly break out, but uh maybe it's going to still be something that's more like a second half of the year story. I wouldn't be surprised if uh we continued the rest of this month in this kind of a meat grinder trade range without uh much resolution. All right, Eric, let's move on to uranium here. >> Well, Patrick, as our regular listeners know, I remain super duper bullish on both nuclear energy and on uranium long term. But frankly, I'm starting to get pretty darn concerned here in the very short term because the uranium miners just plain have not participated in this gigantic rally that we've seen in the broader market or I don't know if I should be even be saying the broader market in the stock indices which are frankly being narrowly driven not broadly driven by semiconductor stocks ever since the March lows. So, you know, if the uranium miners are just holding flat in the face of this massive semiconductor rally, what are they going to do if the semis blow off and retrace to the downside as some observers, including our friend Charlie McGele at Numura, have begun to anticipate? I'm not sure, but I'm bracing for a near-term correction if that happens. I do think it's a buying opportunity because the bullish thesis is as strong as ever for both uranium and nuclear energy. I just have a feeling that we're maybe about to hit an air pocket here uh if the global energy market is upset in the way that I fear it's about to be upset if China doesn't bring an end to this hormuse crisis. Well, Eric, I share your sentiment towards the your bullishness on uranium. The big question for me is when uh is there going to be signs of accumulation like that they have restarted a new bull leg? At this moment, uranium is grinding and uh and we haven't seen yet a flows pivot that has uh really reopened the upside window for another leg higher. Uh at this stage, I don't see a big bare decline coming or anything. So, it's going to be once again just a scenario of consolidation and just watching for when there's technical signs that in fact the flows have pivoted back into the favor of the bulls. Now, Eric, I wanted to just briefly touch on the copper chart on page eight. We had a breakout to all-time new highs on copper. Now, uh is there more room for it to run to seven on the upside? Absolutely. But on the short term, this bull impulse here is going to likely hit some uh overhead resistance. But so long as old pullbacks are contained to, you know, 25 to 50 cent pullbacks and a bot on dip, then I'd be looking for uh that to be continuation patterns to inevitably see copper trade all the way up to the seven handle. It's interesting that many copper names as individual equities have not yet fully started to participate, but uh the copper market remains decisively bullish here. Patrick, before we wrap up this week's podcast, let's hit that 10-year Treasury note chart. Here we have a breakout to multimonth highs on the 10-year yield. Now we haven't yet hit the highs of 2024 or25 which are in that 460 to 475 range but clearly the bond market looks like it wants to press uh to retest those levels driven by the short-term inflation fears driven by higher oil prices. At this stage, the bond market is uh pretty ugly and yields continue to press and I don't see any reason why that has to reverse this week. So, right now, be careful in the bond markets. It's simply uh the trend is not your friend and there's no immediate catalyst for this trend to reverse. Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of BigPictur Trading. The details are on the last pages of the slide deck or just go to bigpicturtrading.com. Patrick, tell them what they can expect to find in this week's research roundup. Well, in this week's research roundup, you're going to find the transcript for today's interview, the trade of the week chart book, which is discussed here in the postgame, including a number of links to articles that we found interesting. You're going to find this link and so much more in this week's research roundup. So, that does it for this week's episode. We appreciate all the feedback and support we get from our listeners and we're always looking for suggestions on how we can make the program even better. Now, for those of our listeners that write or blog about the markets and would like to share that content with our listeners, send us an email at researchroundup@macrovoices.com and we will consider it for our weekly distributions. If you have not already, follow our main account on X at macrovoices for all the most recent updates and releases. You can also follow Eric onx, Eric S. Townson. That's Eric spelled with a K. You can also follow me at Patrick Sesna. On behalf of Eric Townson and myself, thank you for listening and we'll see you all next week. That concludes this edition of Macrovoices. Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds in finance and macroeconomics. Macrovoices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturrading.com, the internet's premier source of online education for traders. Please visit bigpicturetrading.com for more information. Please register your free account at macrovoices.com. Once registered, you'll receive our free weekly research roundup email containing links to supporting documents from our featured guests and the very best free financial content our volunteer research team could find on the internet each week. You'll also gain access to our free listener discussion forums and research library. And the more registered users we have, the more we'll be able to recruit high-profile feature interview guests for future programs. 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